Haskin's Derby Report: Day for Revenge

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Day for Revenge

RACINGFAN — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 22:16:44 GMT

I agree Wanda about the blow out for Papa Clem! I also really liked the one mile works for Friesan Fire and Chocolate Candy. I think our only hope of another triple crown winner lies in getting the horses fit enough and 4-5-6 furlong works don't seem to cut it. The training and not the horses is the reason it has been over 30 years since the last one in my opinion

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Day for Revenge

Wanda — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 18:01:45 GMT

Guys don't get caught up in the "juice-no juice" angle. You have to remember that there still are legal meds given. They have improved testing methods in the last 2 years and have banned numerous drugs since then. When you say "juiced" you should be more specific so the uneducated don't get the wrong message.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Day for Revenge

Owen bytheway — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 17:57:05 GMT

Dunkirk wouldn't have brought near that much money at a 2yo in training sale as he did as a yearling.

He is too straight up and down and will never beat a legitimate mile and a quarter field.

Key Chocolate Candy w/ FF, Papa Clem, IWR, PotN - and if it's pouring an hour before the race toss in Desert Party and Nowhere.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Day for Revenge

Owen bytheway — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 17:30:01 GMT

whoops, too many "o's" typed in on my e-mail address on comments just sent.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Day for Revenge

Owen bytheway — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 17:28:52 GMT

Dunkirk is straight up and down and cannot reach. An honest mile and a quarter is beyond his range.

He wouldn't have commanded his yearling price as a 2yo in training auction.

Value play: Key Choc Candy w/

Friesan Fire, Papa Clem, IWR, POTN,

and toss in Desert Party and Nowhere if it's still pouring an hour before the race.

You can't play them all, but you can make some money.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Day for Revenge

Matthew W — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 17:24:45 GMT

Gary Stute learned that from Mel Stute--and the long works were from Warren Stute--and the easy going/laugh at yourself/yet always competitive nature---that's just a Stute!

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Day for Revenge

MikeG — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 16:35:01 GMT

Rocker - Indian Blessing was scheduled to make her return in the Humana Distaff & John Velazquez committed to her. After her work Tuesday Baffert decided she wasn't ready to run. See link below.

www.drf.com/.../103336.html

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Day for Revenge

For Big Red — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 15:56:41 GMT

Greg J.: I'm not getting off Fire either. Everything points to a huge race from him, plus he's been my sentimental/emotional favorite since I first saw him. When all the logic-driven handicapping is done, I still have to go with my heart, and I love that colt.

Besides, as I mentioned above in my 29 Apr 2009 6:03 PM post, FF's owners are one of only three who opened their colt's medical records to the New York Times. We can be 100% certain that Friesan Fire and Papa Clem are not "juiced." For that reason, my jaded heart is rooting for them to finish 1-2.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Day for Revenge

longwaytomay — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 15:36:53 GMT

For BigRed, First off I would like to thank you for all your insight. It is obvious you have a passion for the sport of horse racing and handicapping. I would appreciate your opinion on what I feel might be a serious angle. Both Godolphin horses raced in the US as two year olds. Both raced on Lasix. However, they both have trained, and had three races in Dubai without Lasix. Now six or seven months later they will be on the juice Sat. I have always considered first time Lasix to move up horses. Do you feel that being off the juice for six months and now being back on would be equal to or close to first time Lasix.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Day for Revenge

Matthew W — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 14:58:02 GMT

Choc Candy won't be 40-1---but slop favors speed--especially if they roll the track, whick is what they do nowadays--that can take away the cushion--egads! So many things to not like about mud! I'm keeping my fingers crossed for all of the good/great horseflesh that will be partaking in the Derby and other fine races this weekend! Mud is tough--in a twenty horse field it can be a quagmire--there, I got to say quagmire!! Good luck/good times to all....

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Day for Revenge

Greg J. — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 14:07:13 GMT

A few of the Reasons why I think Chocolate Candy will be third or second to Fire:

1. His race in the Santa Anita Derby was huge. Former jockey great Gary Stevens, who did the TV commentary for NBC, said he would have upset Pioneerof The Nile if the pace hadn't been so slow.

2. There's a big chance it'll rain on Friday and Saturday, and, says assistant trainer Galen May, "He just loves the mud. I hope it does rain."

3. Hollendorfer, who is headquartered in Northern California, is always in the conversation, along with Bill Mott and Todd Pletcher, when the topic is "Best Trainer Who Has Never Won the Derby." He has never gotten to the starting gate with a horse as good as this one.

4. His pedigree indicates he'll like the Derby's mile and a quarter, which is an eighth of a mile farther than any of the contenders has won. His sire, Candy Ride, won the Pacific Classic and his dam, Crownette, is a daughter of 1977 Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew.

5. Instead of sticking with Russell Baze, who rode him in both his Golden Gate Fields victories, Hollendorfer has opted for Derby veteran Smith, who won the roses with the longshot Giacomo in 2005 and has finished second three times in his 15 Derby rides since 1984. In two Derby rides, Baze finished 13th and 14th.

Assuming that everybody who likes chocolate candy won't bet on Chocolate Candy in the Derby, he ought to be a big price - maybe 40 to 1 or better.

Worth a shot....

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Day for Revenge

Wanda — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 13:57:32 GMT

I see Gary Stute did an "old school" move with Papa Clem. Maybe things are turning around in the racing game and trainers are going back to the days when you prepped a horse properly for the biggest day of their 3yr old year.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Day for Revenge

Greg J. — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 13:47:34 GMT

Muddy or OFF Tracks info:

Desert Party won the six-furlong, Grade II Sanford over a muddy track last year.

Flying Private was fifth, beaten 11 1/2 in his sole off-track try.

Friesan Fire won the Grade II Louisiana Derby on the slop by 7 1/4 over Papa Clem.

Join in the Dance finished second in his debut on the slop, but in the six-furlong NATC Futurity last year on a sloppy track, he was fourth by 13.

Nowhere to Hide, in his third start, was second by a half going a mile on a muddy/sealed track at Belmont Park.

No other runners have off track experience.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Day for Revenge

Greg J. — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 13:42:31 GMT

For Big Red,

Honestly, At this point in time, I have blinkers on, Nothing can sway me from Friesan Fire, The Six post isn't perfect for him, but he has won before with traffic to his left and right, Blinkers play a big part for his concentration, I think he will be at or near the front(3rd or fourth maybe) at the turn, BUT with the forecast for rain(YES!), I am now thinking he will be on the lead at turn, and go wire to wire....wishfull thinking, yes, but with so few horses in the field who have actually run on a off track, it is more and more possibe...

Only six of the 20 Derby starters have ever raced on a track listed as other than fast: Desert Party, Flying Private, Friesan Fire, Join in the Dance, Nowhere to Hide, and Papa Clem. And, In my opinion, of those, Fire and Desert Party are the only legit contenders...

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Day for Revenge

HLLIKINS — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 12:55:19 GMT

Ugh, I still don't know, except for Mr. Hot Stuff. I normally pick three horses per Derby field, any order for top three, but other than him it's all up in the air. I'll figure it out by Saturday. Best of luck to all.

Cheers,

Heather