Haskin's Derby Report: Day for Revenge

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Day for Revenge

RACINGFAN — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 22:16:44 GMT

I agree Wanda about the blow out for Papa Clem! I also really liked the one mile works for Friesan Fire and Chocolate Candy. I think our only hope of another triple crown winner lies in getting the horses fit enough and 4-5-6 furlong works don't seem to cut it. The training and not the horses is the reason it has been over 30 years since the last one in my opinion

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Day for Revenge

Wanda — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 18:01:45 GMT

Guys don't get caught up in the "juice-no juice" angle. You have to remember that there still are legal meds given. They have improved testing methods in the last 2 years and have banned numerous drugs since then. When you say "juiced" you should be more specific so the uneducated don't get the wrong message.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Day for Revenge

Owen bytheway — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 17:57:05 GMT

Dunkirk wouldn't have brought near that much money at a 2yo in training sale as he did as a yearling.

He is too straight up and down and will never beat a legitimate mile and a quarter field.

Key Chocolate Candy w/ FF, Papa Clem, IWR, PotN - and if it's pouring an hour before the race toss in Desert Party and Nowhere.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Day for Revenge

Owen bytheway — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 17:30:01 GMT

whoops, too many "o's" typed in on my e-mail address on comments just sent.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Day for Revenge

Owen bytheway — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 17:28:52 GMT

Dunkirk is straight up and down and cannot reach. An honest mile and a quarter is beyond his range.

He wouldn't have commanded his yearling price as a 2yo in training auction.

Value play: Key Choc Candy w/

Friesan Fire, Papa Clem, IWR, POTN,

and toss in Desert Party and Nowhere if it's still pouring an hour before the race.

You can't play them all, but you can make some money.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Day for Revenge

Matthew W — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 17:24:45 GMT

Gary Stute learned that from Mel Stute--and the long works were from Warren Stute--and the easy going/laugh at yourself/yet always competitive nature---that's just a Stute!

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Day for Revenge

MikeG — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 16:35:01 GMT

Rocker - Indian Blessing was scheduled to make her return in the Humana Distaff & John Velazquez committed to her. After her work Tuesday Baffert decided she wasn't ready to run. See link below.

www.drf.com/.../103336.html

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Day for Revenge

For Big Red — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 15:56:41 GMT

Greg J.: I'm not getting off Fire either. Everything points to a huge race from him, plus he's been my sentimental/emotional favorite since I first saw him. When all the logic-driven handicapping is done, I still have to go with my heart, and I love that colt.

Besides, as I mentioned above in my 29 Apr 2009 6:03 PM post, FF's owners are one of only three who opened their colt's medical records to the New York Times. We can be 100% certain that Friesan Fire and Papa Clem are not "juiced." For that reason, my jaded heart is rooting for them to finish 1-2.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Day for Revenge

longwaytomay — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 15:36:53 GMT

For BigRed, First off I would like to thank you for all your insight. It is obvious you have a passion for the sport of horse racing and handicapping. I would appreciate your opinion on what I feel might be a serious angle. Both Godolphin horses raced in the US as two year olds. Both raced on Lasix. However, they both have trained, and had three races in Dubai without Lasix. Now six or seven months later they will be on the juice Sat. I have always considered first time Lasix to move up horses. Do you feel that being off the juice for six months and now being back on would be equal to or close to first time Lasix.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Day for Revenge

Matthew W — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 14:58:02 GMT

Choc Candy won't be 40-1---but slop favors speed--especially if they roll the track, whick is what they do nowadays--that can take away the cushion--egads! So many things to not like about mud! I'm keeping my fingers crossed for all of the good/great horseflesh that will be partaking in the Derby and other fine races this weekend! Mud is tough--in a twenty horse field it can be a quagmire--there, I got to say quagmire!! Good luck/good times to all....

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Day for Revenge

Greg J. — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 14:07:13 GMT

A few of the Reasons why I think Chocolate Candy will be third or second to Fire:

1. His race in the Santa Anita Derby was huge. Former jockey great Gary Stevens, who did the TV commentary for NBC, said he would have upset Pioneerof The Nile if the pace hadn't been so slow.

2. There's a big chance it'll rain on Friday and Saturday, and, says assistant trainer Galen May, "He just loves the mud. I hope it does rain."

3. Hollendorfer, who is headquartered in Northern California, is always in the conversation, along with Bill Mott and Todd Pletcher, when the topic is "Best Trainer Who Has Never Won the Derby." He has never gotten to the starting gate with a horse as good as this one.

4. His pedigree indicates he'll like the Derby's mile and a quarter, which is an eighth of a mile farther than any of the contenders has won. His sire, Candy Ride, won the Pacific Classic and his dam, Crownette, is a daughter of 1977 Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew.

5. Instead of sticking with Russell Baze, who rode him in both his Golden Gate Fields victories, Hollendorfer has opted for Derby veteran Smith, who won the roses with the longshot Giacomo in 2005 and has finished second three times in his 15 Derby rides since 1984. In two Derby rides, Baze finished 13th and 14th.

Assuming that everybody who likes chocolate candy won't bet on Chocolate Candy in the Derby, he ought to be a big price - maybe 40 to 1 or better.

Worth a shot....

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Day for Revenge

Wanda — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 13:57:32 GMT

I see Gary Stute did an "old school" move with Papa Clem. Maybe things are turning around in the racing game and trainers are going back to the days when you prepped a horse properly for the biggest day of their 3yr old year.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Day for Revenge

Greg J. — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 13:47:34 GMT

Muddy or OFF Tracks info:

Desert Party won the six-furlong, Grade II Sanford over a muddy track last year.

Flying Private was fifth, beaten 11 1/2 in his sole off-track try.

Friesan Fire won the Grade II Louisiana Derby on the slop by 7 1/4 over Papa Clem.

Join in the Dance finished second in his debut on the slop, but in the six-furlong NATC Futurity last year on a sloppy track, he was fourth by 13.

Nowhere to Hide, in his third start, was second by a half going a mile on a muddy/sealed track at Belmont Park.

No other runners have off track experience.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Day for Revenge

Greg J. — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 13:42:31 GMT

For Big Red,

Honestly, At this point in time, I have blinkers on, Nothing can sway me from Friesan Fire, The Six post isn't perfect for him, but he has won before with traffic to his left and right, Blinkers play a big part for his concentration, I think he will be at or near the front(3rd or fourth maybe) at the turn, BUT with the forecast for rain(YES!), I am now thinking he will be on the lead at turn, and go wire to wire....wishfull thinking, yes, but with so few horses in the field who have actually run on a off track, it is more and more possibe...

Only six of the 20 Derby starters have ever raced on a track listed as other than fast: Desert Party, Flying Private, Friesan Fire, Join in the Dance, Nowhere to Hide, and Papa Clem. And, In my opinion, of those, Fire and Desert Party are the only legit contenders...

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Day for Revenge

HLLIKINS — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 12:55:19 GMT

Ugh, I still don't know, except for Mr. Hot Stuff. I normally pick three horses per Derby field, any order for top three, but other than him it's all up in the air. I'll figure it out by Saturday. Best of luck to all.

Cheers,

Heather

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Day for Revenge

Coldfacts — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 11:24:33 GMT

There is no doubt that IWR’s Wood Memorial performance has contributed to him being listed as the 3-1ML favorite for the derby. West Side Bernie was 1 1/2L behind IWR and his ML is 30-1. Is I Want Revenge 10 times better than WSB? Why bother to ask the question when WSB was so comprehensively beaten by IWR. Well, Funny Cide and Morarchos were comprehensively beaten by Empire Maker and Congaree in their respective Wood Memorials. They both went to win the derby. Let me be clear, my pick to win the derby is Regal Ransom. However there are exotic wager that pay lucrative returns.

I doubt anyone has compared the records of WSB and IWR. Well the one might just be very surprise by the revelation.

WSB made four starts as a 2YO. He won his first two starts. The first was a MSW at 1m, 70yrd at Monmouth Park. One month later he won his graded stakes debut at 1m 1/16 in the Kentucky Cup Juvenile on the synthetic surface at Turf Way Park. His third start a month later was in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile G1 at Santa Anita Park. This would be the third track in as many starts. He was the only horse in the field with only two starts. He finished 6th beaten 3L. Can anyone guess who 1/2L was ahead of him? Derby ML co-second choice POTN. He would conclude his 2YO campaign with a 2nd place finish to Big Drama in the G3, 1 1/16 Delta Jack Pot.

IWR made five starts as a 2YO. He lost his first three starts. The first was a MSW at 51/2F at Hollywood Park. The second & third were also MSW at 6f & 61/2F at Delmar and Santa Anita. He broke his maiden in his fourth a 1 1/16 MSW. His 5th start and last start as a 2YO in the 11/16 CashCall Futurity G1 where he was beaten 1/2L by the same POTN who finished 1/2L ahead of WSB in BCJ.

Both WSB and IWR made two starts in 2009 before they met in the Wood Memorial. WSB emerged from an 8 weeks respite to contest the G3 nine furlongs Holy Bull. He finished third beaten 3 3/4L His next start was the G3 nine furlongs the Lane End. He finished 6th beaten 8L. IWR emerged from a 7 weeks respite to contest the G2 11/16 Bob Lewis. He finished third beaten 11/2L. His next start was the one mile G3 Gotham. He won by a convincing 81/2L. The Gotham was contested on the 7th March and the Lanes End on the on 21st March. IWR had 28 day to recover from his easy Gotham victory where as WSB had only14 days to recover from his grueling 11/8M Lanes End. IWR had a problem plagued trip and eventually ran out a convincing winner with WSB 11/2L in second.

So what have learnt folks? Well, WSB has made 7 starts to date with 2 victories. Six of his 7 starts were in graded race. He won his first two starts with second being a graded race He was 1/2L behind POTN in the Breeders Cup Juvenile G1 in only his 3rd start. He faced IWR 14 day after a tough 9 furlongs race on a tiring Poly Track and was only beaten 11/2L.. He was the only horse to close in the Holy Bull on a speed favoring Gulfstream Park strip. He is probably the only colt in the derby field that has contested 3 consecutive nine furlongs preps in 2009.

IWR has made 8 starts to date, with 3 victories. Four of his 8 starts were in graded races. He broke his maiden in his 4th start. When WBS made his 4th start, it was in his third graded race.

WSB had th better 2YO campaign and IWR is having the better 3YO campaign. Does this mean that IWR is the better colt? The handicapper certainly thinks so. In fact, he thinks10 times better.

In their only meeting WSB was contesting his 2nd second 9F race in 14 days. IWR was contesting his 2nd in 28 days and and his first at 9F. Under those circumstances WSB did extremely well to finish 11/2L behind, not the more talented, but the fresher IWR. To ask any young horse to run 18 furlongs in 14 days that’s asking a lot.

WSB will leave the gates at better than 30-1. If you like WSB, he will enter the derby a much fresher horse and I firmly believe he will turn the tables on IWR as he is the better colt not by my assessment but by his record.

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re: Haskin's Derby Report: Day for Revenge

Tim — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 10:47:26 GMT

I agree this isn't one of the most exciting Derby field but if you go back 40 or 50 years you had a lot of horses coming off of losses in claiming races run in the Derby and you usually had a field of 10 or 12. You would only have maybe 2 or 3 real contenders back then but you still didn't have a lot of Triple Crown winners. 20 Horse fields means a lot of value and you don't have any claimers in the race so lets not talk about how weak the field is because any one of these horses could just be hitting his peak. That's why they run the race. Also morning line makers wouldn't be working for a living if they could handicap. In a field of this size throw out the past performances and hope you find the horses that stay out of trouble. Kent D. is my favorite jockey so that's why i have picked only 3 winners other than Smarty Jones and Barbaro. In 95 I had Timber Country and my grandfather had Thunder Gulch and I thought he was crazy before the race.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Day for Revenge

slewofdamascus — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 08:45:32 GMT

It is worth noting, I think, that the dubai horses go back on lasix for this. One might draw a paralell between the BC Classic when we had the two euros run one-two (renewing their rivalry) getting lasix. Here we have the two dubai horses renewing their rivalry while going to lasix again in their return to the US. A one-two finish would not surprise. Worth the $2 bucks, in any case.

If this race was a mile and eighth, it wouldn't be the mystery that it always is, because it is the distance that seperates these. There are several who have sires that have historical precedence, including Regal Ranson (Distorted Humor - Funny Cide), Desert Party (Street Cry - Street Sense), Papa Clem (Smart Strike - Curlin), and another sire or two who have thrown runners that have done okay at the distance like Giant's Causeway (Hold Me Back), who is 7 for 24 with runners at the distance (big roi) on dirt/synthetic (3 for 12 on dirt only). Unbridled's Song (Dunkirk) is another sire for whom the distance should suit his well-meant offspring. I don't like Dunkirk based on his lack of foundation, but the distance should not be his undoing, it may, in fact, be his equalizer. As much as I don't want to, he will be included underneath in a few of my savers.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Day for Revenge

Swapsfan — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 05:58:01 GMT

For Big Red: Thanks for your post on medication histories. I agree with your comments. Good luck to Friesan Fire! He was on my short list anyway.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Day for Revenge

Friesan Fire — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 05:48:25 GMT

Friesan Fire Pedigree

grandsire: Seattle Slew

great grandsire: Secretariat

This colt breathes different air.

This colt might be in a different area code... when all is said and done.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Day for Revenge

Marc W — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 05:18:45 GMT

Having actually made the odds at a major track a few times-when the 1st and 2 nd people doing them at Woodbine-Ft Erie and Greenwood were off.

You DO NOT figure the odds the way you handicap -not your picks--you pick what you think the odds will be on the board when the race is bet. You use 125% or 130% not the obvious 100% total of the betting when you tally how much of a percentage each horse will get of the wagering. I never did a 20 horse field--that is very difficult. (Using 125% try making a line and see how you do--lets see it posted and checked out after the race) Sometimes the track will only let you make the longest shots only 30 or 50-1 when you are well aware they should or will be higher. There are rules you must follow to get paid.

Although I don't agree with the line particularly-it certainly isn't a easy job. Somebody is paying him and not you so a major track thinks he has talent. I'm not writing this blog or in BH, so somebody thinks Mr Haskin is a better writer-good choice.

Curious also, how many that fault trainers, their decisions and their training actually tried it? It is easy to go to the window and bet. I suggest watching the movie Heckler. Comic's and actors examine their critics for their acts and movies. One comment is a movie was made for 10 to 12 yr old boys and it was panned by critics for being childish.---It made a lot of money. It was not made to be a classic.

I see many posts knocking top trainers, jockeys and horses-now the odds maker. Why not concentrate on cashing a bet? I love it when a horse is made a long shot I like. It is pari-mutual betting-that means you are betting to win the other guys money--The track gets its take-- "whomever wins"--they actually would prefer favorites to win-somebody making a big score on a longshot is less likely to put money back in the pools.

Check my facts out

Info 101

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Day for Revenge

Paula Higgins — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 02:58:47 GMT

IWR, POTN, Friesan Fire, Chocolate Candy, Hold Me Back, General Quarters. First three get the first three places-not sure what order.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Day for Revenge

Matthew W — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 02:46:43 GMT

The one horse you just know will love that extra 1/8--is

Mr Hot Stuff...maybe for third, but I don't think he's good enough to beat these...Col John is a real nice horse, though...and Tiznow was a late bloomer...and the SoCal (pro ride) horses have been winning everywhere....this year there's SO MANY guys who can hit the board--POTN's my choice because I think he's the best horse, but 15 guys in there wouldn't suprise me....I certainly see no Big Browns in there....

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Day for Revenge

slyder — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 00:25:23 GMT

Friesan Fire, I Want Revenge, Hold Me Back, Chocolate Candy, Dunkirk. Box em up and sprinkle a little of something you like in for flavor.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: Day for Revenge

Matthew W — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 23:56:31 GMT

Rocker AMEN bruddah..and thanks for mentioning Hold Me Back--he's one of the TWO Mott horses that I think will make the super (POTN having been in his barn)As of now, I have POTN/IWR/HMB...am still trying to find my 4th guy....gonna let FF beat me...he'll be on the engine/used early for position...he'll have to be good to take them all the way...think FF/IWR might be co-favs--no way will FF be FOURTH choice as Bataglia says--especially with the rains predicted--mehopes it's a dry track! Good luck to all--enjoy-this is what it's all about--they're even trying Zenyatta with some toughies Fri!! It's Derby Week!