Haskin's Belmont Report: All About Tactics

re: Haskin's Belmont Report: All About Tactics

Fran — Fri, 07 Jun 2013 15:34:40 GMT

Love your comments! Going to be an interesting race. I was thinking the paddle boat might be the winner because it is going to be wet and muddy. Maybe one of those boats they use in Florida to go through the swamps! LOL Hope everyone crosses the finish line safely.

re: Haskin's Belmont Report: All About Tactics

Giddyup — Fri, 07 Jun 2013 09:42:20 GMT

I was a bit surprised to see Steve make Palace Malice his ATO pick. Pletcher seems baffled by this colt and has experimented with various running styles and distances to no avail. Maybe PM eventually finds his niche in sprints like Jackson Bend did but at this point there are too many unanswered questions surrounding Palace Malice for me to invest in him. Orb is clearly the best colt in the field and he has a legitimate excuse for his weak Preakness performance. I think the pace scenario for the Belmont should be much more to Orbs liking and he should cruise to a win here.

re: Haskin's Belmont Report: All About Tactics

pbuu — Thu, 06 Jun 2013 23:56:18 GMT

Soldier Course

needs to go to horse racing pedigree school .he does have some idea of what hes dealing with but not the full picture.

re: Haskin's Belmont Report: All About Tactics

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Thu, 06 Jun 2013 23:55:16 GMT

Plod and Vet who should I toss

re: Haskin's Belmont Report: All About Tactics

nickie — Thu, 06 Jun 2013 22:25:43 GMT

Disappointed Kiaran named Ortiz[am a Luzzi fan]...think Oxbow is up against it with plenty of runners to keep him company early. Looking for the 1/2 finish in the Derby to be running best late, with Overanalyze in the mix. Please Mr.[Ms.] Weatherperson give us a break and get this TS oughta here....good luck to all!

re: Haskin's Belmont Report: All About Tactics

Delrene — Thu, 06 Jun 2013 21:52:17 GMT

Enjoyed your comments and article. I, for one, am really looking forward to this particular Belmont for all the "unknown factors". I wish a safe track and trip for all. Have a great time one and all.

re: Haskin's Belmont Report: All About Tactics

Double Al — Thu, 06 Jun 2013 21:23:46 GMT

Great write up of the almighty confusion trying to figure this one. Why is one owner, with three horses all trained by the same trainer, not made to combine his entry?

re: Haskin's Belmont Report: All About Tactics

Old Timer — Thu, 06 Jun 2013 20:06:30 GMT

If I can parphrase your article, Steve, this is one very OPEN race.

With that in mind:

As someone else has said, this could be a Triple Crown of 3 different O's.

KD - Orb

PR - Oxbow

and

BEL - Overanalyze.

He has won over this track (Belmont Futurity) and he had one bad race (KD). If he goes off at 12-1 or better, I'd say that is worth a wager.

re: Haskin's Belmont Report: All About Tactics

baramarie — Thu, 06 Jun 2013 19:50:35 GMT

FOR FRAN

You must be too young to remember Secretariat 's

Belmont. A one time only in sports history. He not only set the track record (which still stands) but won by 31 lengths. Afleet Alex was good, but???!

re: Haskin's Belmont Report: All About Tactics

woodshade — Thu, 06 Jun 2013 18:16:12 GMT

The horse that wins, will be the one who is hit the most by the whip. Like Stevens hitting Oxbow 16 times coming down the streach.

Should be "NO WHIP", horse wins by ability and desire.

re: Haskin's Belmont Report: All About Tactics

Soldier Course — Thu, 06 Jun 2013 17:19:29 GMT

Just watched a video about Seattle Slew's Triple Crown run, on YouTube. It rained four inches the morning of the Belmont. Trainer Billy Turner gave Slew a blowout the day before the race. In the paddock the day of the race Slew looked like a bronze god. Will we ever see the likes of this again?

re: Haskin's Belmont Report: All About Tactics

Pedigree Ann — Thu, 06 Jun 2013 17:09:00 GMT

Frac Daddy - beaten 18 and 24 lengths by Orb, beaten 16 lengths by IMLD. Only good race this year was in the weak Arkansas Derby. Toss.

Overanalyze - beaten 13 lengths by Orb, 4 by Vyjack, only winning race was the Arkansas Derby (see above). P.S. Dixie Union is not a stamina sire: Union Rags got what stamina he had from the damside, particularly from Nijinsky. Toss.

Giant Finish - best two races were on Turfway Poly; mayhap like the horse who beat him in the Battaglia, General Election, he will be better on turf. Toss.

Incognito - well-bred but 15-length loser in only stakes start. Maybe later, but behind the curve now. Toss.

Midnight Taboo - only win in 3 starts a one-turn mile maiden. Thrown to the wolves by Repole. Toss.

Will Take Charge - beaten 12 lengths by this lot in Kentucky, beaten 16 lengths by this lot in Maryland. Loved Oaklawn (except when sloppy), moderate elsewhere. Already shown he doesn't stay. Toss.

Vyjack - doesn't stay 9f or 10f, so he's going to stay 12f? Toss.

Unlimited Budget - couldn't beat top-class fillies at 9f, so she's going to beat top colts at 12f? Recall, Rags to Riches had impressively won her Oaks, unlike this one. Toss.

This make it easier to figure out the Belmont?

re: Haskin's Belmont Report: All About Tactics

Soldier Course — Thu, 06 Jun 2013 16:32:23 GMT

Three weeks ago I never thought I'd be saying this, but this year's Triple Crown season might end up being mediocre in memory. Perhaps a win by Orb could make a difference, redeeming himself and reigniting his fans. Anyone see the B-H video of Shug talking about Orb and the Belmont? Not the same level of confidence we saw before the Preakness.

re: Haskin's Belmont Report: All About Tactics

stevieP — Thu, 06 Jun 2013 14:30:57 GMT

The Orb BandWagon sure emptied fast! He was a Mortal Lock in the Preakness after winning the Derby...now its a wide open Belmont...every TripleCrown race is wide open isn't it?!...MineThatBird-Charismatic-Bernardini-Sarava...

re: Haskin's Belmont Report: All About Tactics

Love 'em all — Thu, 06 Jun 2013 13:47:04 GMT

Well, to help lessen even more confusion, Palace Malice breaks from #12 ... not 13 and Will Take Charge and Vyjack break from #10 and #11 ... not 11 and 12. As you know, some of us are easier to confuse than others. [big smile]

Right now, my attention is on Andrea, the tropical storm, dumping more rain in this area! Hope she steers clear of the Belmont racetrack. Good luck to all.

re: Haskin's Belmont Report: All About Tactics

baramarie — Thu, 06 Jun 2013 13:17:00 GMT

This race has so many "ifs "it could make you crazy. Somehow, that seems to be the nature of the Belmont,leading to many surprising results.

To save my sanity, I 'm just going to go wirh the guy I started with, Orb, and root for him to have a great race, because I still think he 's the best horse

re: Haskin's Belmont Report: All About Tactics

Mary — Thu, 06 Jun 2013 04:12:01 GMT

I'm sticking with pedigree in the Belmont, like I have always done. So let me sort this out for everyone, Revolutionary, Incognito, Will Take Charge, and Orb. I'll find a place for Unlimited Budget.

re: Haskin's Belmont Report: All About Tactics

Ranagulzion — Thu, 06 Jun 2013 03:25:32 GMT

In a good field of horses going 12 furlongs, class and stamina invariably prevails. This Belmont is not as knotty as most people think. Freedom Child, Orb, Overanalyze and Golden Soul are the principals. Todd Pletcher's colt Midnight Taboo is the only unknown quantity capable of upsetting the applecart IMO.

re: Haskin's Belmont Report: All About Tactics

Fran Loszynski — Thu, 06 Jun 2013 02:59:03 GMT

My Belmont picks Freedom Child Oxbow Orb but the greatest Belmont A fleet Alex

re: Haskin's Belmont Report: All About Tactics

Little Bill — Thu, 06 Jun 2013 02:50:32 GMT

Palace Malice, my pick, should be the 1rst horse in the second flight. Same trip he should have had in the Derby. I'll be surprised if they drop out of it with this guy.

re: Haskin's Belmont Report: All About Tactics

Alex'sBigFan — Thu, 06 Jun 2013 01:29:22 GMT

This is as good of a race scenario as any Steve. I can see the two speed horses up front with Oxbow stalking right behind. If Palace Malice has a mind of his own make that 3 speed horses up front with an Oxbow in tow. I still see Orb has to cut diagonally across to near the outside right away. I think the 5 Post is too close inside and he needs to get out of it early. Tim Ritchey had this thing scripted beforehand perfectly, so much so that I was calm, actually quite calm there in '05. My husband turned to me and asked me ok where is Alex? I said don't worry, he'll be coming right along about now when Tom Durkin says "and Afleet Alex, Jeremy Rose has yet to make a move on him, but Heeeeeeeere comes the Preakness winner......." Ritchey had this timed to push button success in his mind and it worked. I read his strategy over and over and knew exactly what Alex and Jeremy would do. Alex had Post 9 and if I am not mistaken Jeremy cut him diagonally the other way to the inside more into contention. I have to watch the replay so I could be mistaken but he cuts him somewhere I know. I can see an Orb/Oxbow exacta with Rev or Golden Soul for Show. I don't know what to make of the filly and how she'll figure in the race. I don't really see another Curlin/Rags thing happening. I would cut Orb from 5 to maybe 11 and keep him in contention near the outside, not too wide, not too far either but in contention in the back.

Now as far as the track conditions it is calling for a soaking rain on Friday in NJ, assuming NY as well. Sat. when last I looked seemed to be clearing in the afternoon and in the 70's, I am hoping the leftover rain from Friday subsides early Sat. am. But will that leave the track drying or slop who knows. These poor colts have had the worst of track conditions throughout this entire tc run. I won't be as calm this year hoping Orb doesn't get caught inside again and hoping for him to redeem himself.

Good luck to all and all horses come home safe.

re: Haskin's Belmont Report: All About Tactics

JoyJackson21 — Thu, 06 Jun 2013 00:25:03 GMT

Hi Steve,

Thank you for my "Laugh of the Day". The last line of your article really had me laughing out loud. - LOL. Don't worry, I found your article very thoughtful, you didn't confuse me at all. - LOL. You made some excellent points in your article. My habit in Triple Crown races is to pick my Kentucky Derby horses and then continue to support them in every Triple Crown race in which they run. It's my pattern every year and this year is no different. It's a method that works for me. That means again supporting Revolutionary, Oxbow, Orb and Palace Malice, singled and in exotics. In the Belmont Stakes I also always throw in at least one new shooter because new shooters tend to do well in the Belmont. I'm throwing in Unlimited Budget because I'm hoping she will compete at a high level and channel her inner Rags To Riches and Genuine Risk in this race. I'm also throwing in Will Take Charge. I loved his kick in the Kentucky Derby and I think this time around he will have much better racing luck than he did in Kentucky. Golden Soul is the wild card horse for me and I will definitely include him in my exotics. The Belmont track conditions sound as if they might be sloppy Saturday afternoon, and Golden Soul seemed to absolutely thrive on Churchill's sloppy track. Leaving him out of the mix in the Belmont makes me feel very uneasy. Golden Soul has quite a kick.

Let's face it - this year's Belmont Stakes really is up for grabs. And this race is famous for giving us unusual winners. Nothing would surprise me in this year's race! - LOL. This has already been a Triple Crown filled with lots of history and lots of surprises. Why should the Belmont Stakes be any different? - LOL.

Thanks for another excellent article, Steve. Good luck to you with your Belmont picks. Good luck to all of the participants on this website with their picks as well. Go get 'em, guys!

re: Haskin's Belmont Report: All About Tactics

Derby Dew — Thu, 06 Jun 2013 00:02:06 GMT

Steve,

You are correct.... I think this Belmont will drive handicappers crazy.

For me, what gives me fits is how to handicap a "sealed track". Does a sealed track play like a fast track since the surface will be patted down hard? If the track superintendent does seal the track, will it be done on Friday?

My confidence is shaky in trying to sort this race out.... and your article didn't help, ha! ha!

I may pass on wagering and just watch and enjoy.

Hope they all come home safe.

re: Haskin's Belmont Report: All About Tactics

El Kabong — Wed, 05 Jun 2013 23:18:00 GMT

Insanity! It's a betters dream/nightmare race and you have summed up the confusion quite nicely this time Steve. Anyone who is trying to make sense of this situation is feeling better about themselves already. The PP's seem as useless as a recipe for Kung Pao Chicken!

I can't tell you how many people have asked me the question (who do you like in the Belmont?) and I have to reply, "I don't have a clue. Get a Ouija board out and you tell me."

Good luck everyone, I'm going to let my beagle Suzy pick the winner this time.

re: Haskin's Belmont Report: All About Tactics

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Wed, 05 Jun 2013 21:37:06 GMT

BTW I think in this race Pletcher as opposed to Lucas who I correctly stated had an impact on the Preakness Stakes(although I didnt see gate to wire) could have an impact on the pace of the race.

He has one owner that is running three different runners all uncoupled in the betting and one of his entries is on the inside in post 3.