Haskin's Derby Report: The Picks

re: Haskin's Derby Report: The Picks

zarvona — Wed, 06 May 2009 15:34:40 GMT

Again, I want to thank all of the bloggers for their comments. Although I am still feeling the pain, at least I have some better understanding as to why!

re: Haskin's Derby Report: The Picks

Ann in Lexington — Tue, 05 May 2009 13:31:19 GMT

>Also Note: this horse is bred to "Unbridled"; dbl bred to "Nashua"; dbl bred to "Mr. Prospector"; thusly dbl bred to "Raise a Native" & "Native Dancer"; has some distance back to "Bold Ruler" and "Sir Gaylord"; but in all, it does seem a little odd that he gets a 5.40 DI rating doesn't it???<

All a result of Roman not understanding the structure of the system he borrowed from Varola. Roman only looks at the first 4 generations and the strongest stamina sources in MTB - Le Fabuleux, Nashua, Prince John, Sir Gaylord, and the Franco-Canadian Menetrier - are in his fifth generation. Moreover, inside those four generations such 'stout' sires as Smarten and Storm Bird are not included in the Roman 'chef-de-race' list. And Roman considers Raise a Native as strictly a speed influence when many of his best products - Majestic Prince, Alydar, Exclusive Native - stayed quite well. That's why anybody who actually studies pedigrees for a living never mentions Roman Dosage - folks like Alan Porter, Byron Rogers, Anne Peters, Avalyn Hunter, and yes, I communicate with them regularly.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: The Picks

Ann in Lexington — Tue, 05 May 2009 02:40:09 GMT

Mine That Bird had, in his races before the Derby, run within a few lengths of the lead. But on Derby Day he was squeezed back and couldn't get a forward position, so Bo-Rail took him over to rail, in last place. Then MTB finds a new dimension he's never shown before and closes like a freight-train.

We've all seen races like this at some point in our time of watching races: speed horse misses the break, stumbles, whatever, ends up last by 5. "Shoot, he's toast," we think. But to our amazement, said horse comes flying in the stretch and gets up to win anyway. It happens, not often, but it does happen. Only this time, it happened in the Kentucky Derby.

I have to say that MTB's move reminded me a lot of Birdstone's move in the Belmont, running down a tired Smarty Jones.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: The Picks

Matthew W — Tue, 05 May 2009 00:19:50 GMT

"Flying under the radar" me arse!! That horse wasn't flying anywhere! And to all the synthetic haters--at least you don't get tracks like that on Derby Day, no less! When it rains like that you get no change from pro-ride, in fact there are as many horses training/racing on wet days as on dry--that really trumps dirt as dirt and water don't mix right for GRADE 1 KENTUCKY DERBIES!! Or Breeders Cups, either! Better to train at Santa Anita than to mess with the wet stuff--better weather/uniform surface....No way does that horse beat a horse like Pioneerof the Nile ever again! That was The Kentucky Derby---don't EVEN try to tell me you can see a "blip" on the Derby Radar when you go back and check out Mine That Bird...that's just quackers!

re: Haskin's Derby Report: The Picks

zarvona — Mon, 04 May 2009 23:03:39 GMT

Note: This race is being touted as the "Second-largest upset in Kentucky Derby history".

Also Note: this horse is bred to "Unbridled"; dbl bred to "Nashua"; dbl bred to "Mr. Prospector"; thusly dbl bred to "Raise a Native" & "Native Dancer"; has some distance back to "Bold Ruler" and "Sir Gaylord"; but in all, it does seem a little odd that he gets a 5.40 DI rating doesn't it???

re: Haskin's Derby Report: The Picks

zarvona — Mon, 04 May 2009 21:09:00 GMT

PPS and I am guessing this is from Jason's BLog?

"But... Dosage looks only at the influence of specific sires, and of 64 possible Dosage "points" in a horse's pedigree, Mine That Bird has only 16. So far. That is likely to change over time, and his DI will lower because of it.

Give it a few years and we'll see Vice Regent declared an Intermediate sire, and Smart Strike and Storm Bird will be Classic influences. (Vice Regent's current progeny average winning distance is 6.96 furlongs; it's 7.45 for Smart Strike and a remarkably high 8.24 for Storm Bird, making him arguably a Classic/Solid influence but for sake of argument we'll stick with Classic.)

Given those additions to Steven Roman's Chef-de-Race list, we'd find Mine That Bird's DI at 2.76 instead of 5.40. And 2.76 is well under the 4.00 Derby standard."

Yet again he's a gelding, so he ain't a makin no babies, which also means he might stay on the track for the next 3-6 years and we can try to get out money back in the future BECAUSE HE NOW OWES US ALL!!! lol

re: Haskin's Derby Report: The Picks

GunBow — Mon, 04 May 2009 20:14:26 GMT

The official Beyers, if they have any credibility (for many) at this point:

Mine That Bird: 105

Rachel Alexandra: 108

Rachel's was a little lower than I was expecting (110-114), but she won so easy, and who really cares? She won by 20! Mine That Bird's fig is slightly below the norm of 108/109. da3hoss, had MTB not been in the race, Pioneer of the Nile would have won the Derby with a Beyer of 94/95, which would have been the lowest by 5 points since Beyers have been published in 1991. Giacomo ran a 100, Sea Hero and MTB a 105, and then a bunch at 107, 108, 109.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: The Picks

zarvona — Mon, 04 May 2009 20:08:28 GMT

PS And I guess that some will of course now question the success of the former DI rules, with a 5.40 Dosage Index winning horse getting to the winners circle in a shattering 6 ¾ length win, whom instead of “Mind that”… should have been named ‘Flying’ "Bird", I guess some will now want to throw out that handicapping axiom, and throw that tool right out of one’s handicapping bags too, aye??!?! Right??? Lmao!!! Although, and then again, if you used everything you know about handicapping and nearly totally reversed it all, you might then have actually found and played “Mine that Bird” as a real play! right??? .......NOT!!! Again GAG!!!!

re: Haskin's Derby Report: The Picks

zarvona — Mon, 04 May 2009 19:52:39 GMT

Well Karen2, I remember that I had that psychic vision of “Papa Clem” (who was peaking coming in off maybe the most normal set of prep races, and who ran the race expected) and “Musket Man” (a fantastic horse who is definitely out-running his pedigree and showed he is no fluke, whom I said I wouldn’t play to win) ‘dueling down the stretch’ (all as noted in some earlier blog after your psychic dream of “Chocolate Candy” winning, so maybe I am the one that is psychic)! And, I admit that I also liked some of the earlier scratched horses, being: “the Pamplemousse”, the Preakness headed “Big Drama”; “Quality Road”, and etc., yet “Pioneerof the Nile” (who ran nearly the race suspected and projected, where it is now time to throw out all that synthetic to dirt, synthetic to off track CRAP (where again “A GOOD HORSE WILL RUN OVER ANY SURFACE”) but yes, still do look at wet and off track figures when handicapping ‘bad’ horses, but NOT GOOD ones, because those angles do not factor in!!! and throw out completely the synthetic Beyer figures unless you’re willing to adjust them accordingly, or unless Beyer revises his assignment quality to runners over synthetics because as of now, they do NOT apply!!!), all along with “Dunkirk” (who stumbled out of the gate and got the fated bad Derby ‘stuck in traffic trip’ (wasn’t he moved in from the auxiliary gate also?) thereafter, who I admit I totally lost in the race, whom I figured as a grey whom would have been easy to follow, accept for the fact that 30 yards from the gate they were all--accept for the front runners--looking as if brown horses, mud brown that is), “Firesan Fire” (who I think now was the one that cut himself coming out of the gate? and apparently later pulled up?) “I Want Revenge” (scratched pre-race due to ankle heat?) “Chocolate Candy” (who in every race he is in, he always looks like he needs the race itself to have been another ½ furlong farther!! (shades of “Liquidity”), where I can only image that it was possibly his early trip trouble that didn’t set him up as he was the type of closer if at the stretch turn and in good position might have made a difference), which means that of the 7 horses I liked, (all of which btw made legitimate Graded Earnings to arrive, thusly not being one of those who backed in due to defections; known of which were “Storm Cat” bred horses, all as explained earlier; and known of which came from Dubai!!!; none of which had a DI above 4.00; none of which were runners from late over-paid later pursed minor preps!!...yet where several to quite a few did come out of California this year (maybe California’s best crop ever with “I Want Revenge”; “the Pamplemousse”; “Pioneerof the Nile”; “Papa Clem”; “Chocolate Candy”; and etc.)!!!, 4 out 7 of my played horses, (where 1 was late scratched!!! being “I Want Revenge”), thusly 4 out of 6 of the horses I ended up actually playing at the track on Derby Day, 4 of them finished in the top 5 !!!

BUT, who?, who??, who???, “Mine that Bird”????, GAG, “Mine that Bird”, GAG, “Mine that Bird”, GAG, who? “Mine that Bird”, DI 5.40???, GAG, GAG, GAG… well way to go Calvin Borel, ((“Bo-rail”)) [[the “Street Sense” trip revisited]] and that all after having gotten slammed coming out of the gate! by “Join in the Dance” (well, I guess he is bred for the Derby and the Belmont, but what a terrible set of prep races to gage him on coming in, where not only did he finish 10 lengths back in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile, he then in his final and only 1/8 prep, couldn’t beat a group of optional allowance claimers at Sunland?? where he wasn’t even in the first three, although I have to admit that he is one that did make legitimate earnings to arrive!!, and yet and [[ although I also can’t believe every jockey near the rail, knowing this is where Calvin is going to run, can’t keep him back by shutting off that route with all knowing that is where he’ll be trying to come from and yet they let him through and this time from 19th !!!????, I don’t get it. Why is it that they haven’t learned to shut the rail off every time against “Bo-rail” is entered in the same race?, (where actually they did just that in the next race following the Derby with the #2 horse!!! blocking Calvin’s #5 coming up the rail), and where they have all certainly ridden against him enough!!). And thusly, that is why my $300 (betting allowance) and expenses on my Derby Day and my 100 mile round trip (50 miles to the nearest OTB) was not a success and was most painful to my pocket.

Yet, and as I sat there with my $180 hand full of tickets (many also having been future pool bets btw), and was watching all of the 5 people in the parlor I was betting in cashing their ALL // “PoTN” $2,000 + exacta tickets, all I could think of was, ya know, that $103.50 $2 win ticket was probably the ticket the Steve Haskin was holding for $10 at 50-1!!! And yet I didn't hear Steve add, "Yes, that was one of my plays"!!!???

re: Haskin's Derby Report: The Picks

the_wiz — Mon, 04 May 2009 18:12:56 GMT

GunBow,

I wasn't sweating any of the finishes until the Derby. I only had 25.00 bet so that was no big deal if I lost it. Once I had a shot at winning it and a great price then I sweated it out a bit. I could not tell who it was flying down the rail and figured the ticket was toast until I got a better look at the number. I always play the pick 4's on the biggest racing days. I chose the pick 4 because I was readying to place the bet on my pick 4 when my gr-son arrived at the track with his father. He told me his pick and when my son told me the gr-daughters was Mine That Bird I kinda laughed but if I was going to include one I had to include both (can't show favortism to one gr-kid over the other.) As for how much is she going to get? I went out and purchased a nice play/swingset Sunday and set it up in my backyard for the two of them to play on anytime they are at my place. Once again I showed no favoritism since they both can use it.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: The Picks

Karen in Texas — Mon, 04 May 2009 14:42:27 GMT

This MTB is a well bred little horse who had been training at a high altitude--more RBC's and more hemoglobin=higher oxygen binding capacity. I tried to point out months ago that this Derby will be the first without steroids, and that, too, will create a new and different pattern of statistics for winners going forward. The dogma of historical analysis will be changing.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: The Picks

da3hoss — Mon, 04 May 2009 11:48:22 GMT

Zarvona, Steve mentioned how well MTB was moving in his 48 Hour blog...

"Although no one was paying attention, Mine That Bird, who likely will be either the longest or second-longest priced horse in the field, actually turned in a smooth, strong gallop this morning, which caught the eye. There is nothing striking about him physically; he’s just a smallish colt in a plain brown wrapper, but he does move well."

Hope he put $2 on him....

re: Haskin's Derby Report: The Picks

da3hoss — Mon, 04 May 2009 11:45:44 GMT

Gunbow, great comments.

MTB salvaged that race's respectability with his solid time of 2:02.66 on a crummy track(I mean BB did it in 2:01.82 on fast track) and if his Beyer is what you said, how pathetic the time and Beyer would be if MTB wasn't in the race...6 3/4 lengths translates into another 1:35 seconds and a time of 2:04.1...

re: Haskin's Derby Report: The Picks

the_wiz — Mon, 04 May 2009 11:31:57 GMT

da3hoss,

I took my gr-daughters pick in the late pick 4 along with my gr-sons and my 3 horses. I got over 20 grand when it came in.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: The Picks

Ranagulzion — Mon, 04 May 2009 07:05:57 GMT

KAREN 2: Hope you don't mind me takig shots at "sitting duck's" predictions, but answer these three question for me: 1) How many horses in the race posted double digit odds? 2) Did Sitting Bull even give a hint of the name of the Derby winner? 3) Does hocus pocus rhyme with bogus?

True, many well reasoned handicapping angles failed to deliver what race caller Tom Durkin called an impossible victory for MTB but the exception of a longshot winner is part of this wonderful sport and doesn't change the rules of well reasoned handicapping and analyses. No bias no bull. Just keeping them honest.