Haskin's Derby Report: The Picks

re: Haskin's Derby Report: The Picks

zarvona — Wed, 06 May 2009 15:34:40 GMT

Again, I want to thank all of the bloggers for their comments. Although I am still feeling the pain, at least I have some better understanding as to why!

re: Haskin's Derby Report: The Picks

Ann in Lexington — Tue, 05 May 2009 13:31:19 GMT

>Also Note: this horse is bred to "Unbridled"; dbl bred to "Nashua"; dbl bred to "Mr. Prospector"; thusly dbl bred to "Raise a Native" & "Native Dancer"; has some distance back to "Bold Ruler" and "Sir Gaylord"; but in all, it does seem a little odd that he gets a 5.40 DI rating doesn't it???<

All a result of Roman not understanding the structure of the system he borrowed from Varola. Roman only looks at the first 4 generations and the strongest stamina sources in MTB - Le Fabuleux, Nashua, Prince John, Sir Gaylord, and the Franco-Canadian Menetrier - are in his fifth generation. Moreover, inside those four generations such 'stout' sires as Smarten and Storm Bird are not included in the Roman 'chef-de-race' list. And Roman considers Raise a Native as strictly a speed influence when many of his best products - Majestic Prince, Alydar, Exclusive Native - stayed quite well. That's why anybody who actually studies pedigrees for a living never mentions Roman Dosage - folks like Alan Porter, Byron Rogers, Anne Peters, Avalyn Hunter, and yes, I communicate with them regularly.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: The Picks

Ann in Lexington — Tue, 05 May 2009 02:40:09 GMT

Mine That Bird had, in his races before the Derby, run within a few lengths of the lead. But on Derby Day he was squeezed back and couldn't get a forward position, so Bo-Rail took him over to rail, in last place. Then MTB finds a new dimension he's never shown before and closes like a freight-train.

We've all seen races like this at some point in our time of watching races: speed horse misses the break, stumbles, whatever, ends up last by 5. "Shoot, he's toast," we think. But to our amazement, said horse comes flying in the stretch and gets up to win anyway. It happens, not often, but it does happen. Only this time, it happened in the Kentucky Derby.

I have to say that MTB's move reminded me a lot of Birdstone's move in the Belmont, running down a tired Smarty Jones.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: The Picks

Matthew W — Tue, 05 May 2009 00:19:50 GMT

"Flying under the radar" me arse!! That horse wasn't flying anywhere! And to all the synthetic haters--at least you don't get tracks like that on Derby Day, no less! When it rains like that you get no change from pro-ride, in fact there are as many horses training/racing on wet days as on dry--that really trumps dirt as dirt and water don't mix right for GRADE 1 KENTUCKY DERBIES!! Or Breeders Cups, either! Better to train at Santa Anita than to mess with the wet stuff--better weather/uniform surface....No way does that horse beat a horse like Pioneerof the Nile ever again! That was The Kentucky Derby---don't EVEN try to tell me you can see a "blip" on the Derby Radar when you go back and check out Mine That Bird...that's just quackers!

re: Haskin's Derby Report: The Picks

zarvona — Mon, 04 May 2009 23:03:39 GMT

Note: This race is being touted as the "Second-largest upset in Kentucky Derby history".

Also Note: this horse is bred to "Unbridled"; dbl bred to "Nashua"; dbl bred to "Mr. Prospector"; thusly dbl bred to "Raise a Native" & "Native Dancer"; has some distance back to "Bold Ruler" and "Sir Gaylord"; but in all, it does seem a little odd that he gets a 5.40 DI rating doesn't it???

re: Haskin's Derby Report: The Picks

zarvona — Mon, 04 May 2009 21:09:00 GMT

PPS and I am guessing this is from Jason's BLog?

"But... Dosage looks only at the influence of specific sires, and of 64 possible Dosage "points" in a horse's pedigree, Mine That Bird has only 16. So far. That is likely to change over time, and his DI will lower because of it.

Give it a few years and we'll see Vice Regent declared an Intermediate sire, and Smart Strike and Storm Bird will be Classic influences. (Vice Regent's current progeny average winning distance is 6.96 furlongs; it's 7.45 for Smart Strike and a remarkably high 8.24 for Storm Bird, making him arguably a Classic/Solid influence but for sake of argument we'll stick with Classic.)

Given those additions to Steven Roman's Chef-de-Race list, we'd find Mine That Bird's DI at 2.76 instead of 5.40. And 2.76 is well under the 4.00 Derby standard."

Yet again he's a gelding, so he ain't a makin no babies, which also means he might stay on the track for the next 3-6 years and we can try to get out money back in the future BECAUSE HE NOW OWES US ALL!!! lol

re: Haskin's Derby Report: The Picks

GunBow — Mon, 04 May 2009 20:14:26 GMT

The official Beyers, if they have any credibility (for many) at this point:

Mine That Bird: 105

Rachel Alexandra: 108

Rachel's was a little lower than I was expecting (110-114), but she won so easy, and who really cares? She won by 20! Mine That Bird's fig is slightly below the norm of 108/109. da3hoss, had MTB not been in the race, Pioneer of the Nile would have won the Derby with a Beyer of 94/95, which would have been the lowest by 5 points since Beyers have been published in 1991. Giacomo ran a 100, Sea Hero and MTB a 105, and then a bunch at 107, 108, 109.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: The Picks

zarvona — Mon, 04 May 2009 20:08:28 GMT

PS And I guess that some will of course now question the success of the former DI rules, with a 5.40 Dosage Index winning horse getting to the winners circle in a shattering 6 ¾ length win, whom instead of “Mind that”… should have been named ‘Flying’ "Bird", I guess some will now want to throw out that handicapping axiom, and throw that tool right out of one’s handicapping bags too, aye??!?! Right??? Lmao!!! Although, and then again, if you used everything you know about handicapping and nearly totally reversed it all, you might then have actually found and played “Mine that Bird” as a real play! right??? .......NOT!!! Again GAG!!!!

re: Haskin's Derby Report: The Picks

zarvona — Mon, 04 May 2009 19:52:39 GMT

Well Karen2, I remember that I had that psychic vision of “Papa Clem” (who was peaking coming in off maybe the most normal set of prep races, and who ran the race expected) and “Musket Man” (a fantastic horse who is definitely out-running his pedigree and showed he is no fluke, whom I said I wouldn’t play to win) ‘dueling down the stretch’ (all as noted in some earlier blog after your psychic dream of “Chocolate Candy” winning, so maybe I am the one that is psychic)! And, I admit that I also liked some of the earlier scratched horses, being: “the Pamplemousse”, the Preakness headed “Big Drama”; “Quality Road”, and etc., yet “Pioneerof the Nile” (who ran nearly the race suspected and projected, where it is now time to throw out all that synthetic to dirt, synthetic to off track CRAP (where again “A GOOD HORSE WILL RUN OVER ANY SURFACE”) but yes, still do look at wet and off track figures when handicapping ‘bad’ horses, but NOT GOOD ones, because those angles do not factor in!!! and throw out completely the synthetic Beyer figures unless you’re willing to adjust them accordingly, or unless Beyer revises his assignment quality to runners over synthetics because as of now, they do NOT apply!!!), all along with “Dunkirk” (who stumbled out of the gate and got the fated bad Derby ‘stuck in traffic trip’ (wasn’t he moved in from the auxiliary gate also?) thereafter, who I admit I totally lost in the race, whom I figured as a grey whom would have been easy to follow, accept for the fact that 30 yards from the gate they were all--accept for the front runners--looking as if brown horses, mud brown that is), “Firesan Fire” (who I think now was the one that cut himself coming out of the gate? and apparently later pulled up?) “I Want Revenge” (scratched pre-race due to ankle heat?) “Chocolate Candy” (who in every race he is in, he always looks like he needs the race itself to have been another ½ furlong farther!! (shades of “Liquidity”), where I can only image that it was possibly his early trip trouble that didn’t set him up as he was the type of closer if at the stretch turn and in good position might have made a difference), which means that of the 7 horses I liked, (all of which btw made legitimate Graded Earnings to arrive, thusly not being one of those who backed in due to defections; known of which were “Storm Cat” bred horses, all as explained earlier; and known of which came from Dubai!!!; none of which had a DI above 4.00; none of which were runners from late over-paid later pursed minor preps!!...yet where several to quite a few did come out of California this year (maybe California’s best crop ever with “I Want Revenge”; “the Pamplemousse”; “Pioneerof the Nile”; “Papa Clem”; “Chocolate Candy”; and etc.)!!!, 4 out 7 of my played horses, (where 1 was late scratched!!! being “I Want Revenge”), thusly 4 out of 6 of the horses I ended up actually playing at the track on Derby Day, 4 of them finished in the top 5 !!!

BUT, who?, who??, who???, “Mine that Bird”????, GAG, “Mine that Bird”, GAG, “Mine that Bird”, GAG, who? “Mine that Bird”, DI 5.40???, GAG, GAG, GAG… well way to go Calvin Borel, ((“Bo-rail”)) [[the “Street Sense” trip revisited]] and that all after having gotten slammed coming out of the gate! by “Join in the Dance” (well, I guess he is bred for the Derby and the Belmont, but what a terrible set of prep races to gage him on coming in, where not only did he finish 10 lengths back in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile, he then in his final and only 1/8 prep, couldn’t beat a group of optional allowance claimers at Sunland?? where he wasn’t even in the first three, although I have to admit that he is one that did make legitimate earnings to arrive!!, and yet and [[ although I also can’t believe every jockey near the rail, knowing this is where Calvin is going to run, can’t keep him back by shutting off that route with all knowing that is where he’ll be trying to come from and yet they let him through and this time from 19th !!!????, I don’t get it. Why is it that they haven’t learned to shut the rail off every time against “Bo-rail” is entered in the same race?, (where actually they did just that in the next race following the Derby with the #2 horse!!! blocking Calvin’s #5 coming up the rail), and where they have all certainly ridden against him enough!!). And thusly, that is why my $300 (betting allowance) and expenses on my Derby Day and my 100 mile round trip (50 miles to the nearest OTB) was not a success and was most painful to my pocket.

Yet, and as I sat there with my $180 hand full of tickets (many also having been future pool bets btw), and was watching all of the 5 people in the parlor I was betting in cashing their ALL // “PoTN” $2,000 + exacta tickets, all I could think of was, ya know, that $103.50 $2 win ticket was probably the ticket the Steve Haskin was holding for $10 at 50-1!!! And yet I didn't hear Steve add, "Yes, that was one of my plays"!!!???

re: Haskin's Derby Report: The Picks

the_wiz — Mon, 04 May 2009 18:12:56 GMT

GunBow,

I wasn't sweating any of the finishes until the Derby. I only had 25.00 bet so that was no big deal if I lost it. Once I had a shot at winning it and a great price then I sweated it out a bit. I could not tell who it was flying down the rail and figured the ticket was toast until I got a better look at the number. I always play the pick 4's on the biggest racing days. I chose the pick 4 because I was readying to place the bet on my pick 4 when my gr-son arrived at the track with his father. He told me his pick and when my son told me the gr-daughters was Mine That Bird I kinda laughed but if I was going to include one I had to include both (can't show favortism to one gr-kid over the other.) As for how much is she going to get? I went out and purchased a nice play/swingset Sunday and set it up in my backyard for the two of them to play on anytime they are at my place. Once again I showed no favoritism since they both can use it.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: The Picks

Karen in Texas — Mon, 04 May 2009 14:42:27 GMT

This MTB is a well bred little horse who had been training at a high altitude--more RBC's and more hemoglobin=higher oxygen binding capacity. I tried to point out months ago that this Derby will be the first without steroids, and that, too, will create a new and different pattern of statistics for winners going forward. The dogma of historical analysis will be changing.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: The Picks

da3hoss — Mon, 04 May 2009 11:48:22 GMT

Zarvona, Steve mentioned how well MTB was moving in his 48 Hour blog...

"Although no one was paying attention, Mine That Bird, who likely will be either the longest or second-longest priced horse in the field, actually turned in a smooth, strong gallop this morning, which caught the eye. There is nothing striking about him physically; he’s just a smallish colt in a plain brown wrapper, but he does move well."

Hope he put $2 on him....

re: Haskin's Derby Report: The Picks

da3hoss — Mon, 04 May 2009 11:45:44 GMT

Gunbow, great comments.

MTB salvaged that race's respectability with his solid time of 2:02.66 on a crummy track(I mean BB did it in 2:01.82 on fast track) and if his Beyer is what you said, how pathetic the time and Beyer would be if MTB wasn't in the race...6 3/4 lengths translates into another 1:35 seconds and a time of 2:04.1...

re: Haskin's Derby Report: The Picks

the_wiz — Mon, 04 May 2009 11:31:57 GMT

da3hoss,

I took my gr-daughters pick in the late pick 4 along with my gr-sons and my 3 horses. I got over 20 grand when it came in.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: The Picks

Ranagulzion — Mon, 04 May 2009 07:05:57 GMT

KAREN 2: Hope you don't mind me takig shots at "sitting duck's" predictions, but answer these three question for me: 1) How many horses in the race posted double digit odds? 2) Did Sitting Bull even give a hint of the name of the Derby winner? 3) Does hocus pocus rhyme with bogus?

True, many well reasoned handicapping angles failed to deliver what race caller Tom Durkin called an impossible victory for MTB but the exception of a longshot winner is part of this wonderful sport and doesn't change the rules of well reasoned handicapping and analyses. No bias no bull. Just keeping them honest.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: The Picks

Ranagulzion — Mon, 04 May 2009 06:39:19 GMT

GUNBOW: You did a good review on Mine That Bird. MTB is the epitome of an "under the radar" Derby horse...a "bird" flying very low in Beyer speed (81) and high in Dosage index (5.40). He was not listed at all in Steve Haskin's original list of sixty horses to watch and totally ignored by all bloggers.

Let's face it, apart from the momentary shock of a rank outsider winning the greatest horserace on the planet, a well-bred 3YO with Derby-winner-producing influences in the 1st three generations coupled with a good 2YO foundation, can improve overnight and give a breakout performance under the right conditions and with the kind of sublime race-riding typical of Calvin Borel. It should not be that much of a "head-scratcher" given that this horse was a 2YO champ in Canada (as was Sunny's Halo the 1983 Kentucky Drby winner).

re: Haskin's Derby Report: The Picks

zarvona — Sun, 03 May 2009 18:56:24 GMT

And by the way, horses that had run primarily on synthetics coming in ran what? WHAT… only 1-2-4-5!!!! SO, throw out all of your old out-dated synthetic crossover handicapping runners crap and the theories associated and especially the Beyer figures associated with synthetics or upgrade them !!! And “I WANT REVENGE” who DIDN’T RUN also came off of the Synthetic route, where he too looked even better on a different surface, dirt!!! Just figure that any GOOD horse running well on synthetics will LOVE any different surface DIRT included!!! And let me preface that again saying a “GOOD HORSE”!!! that being a Graded Stakes earning horse!! Thusly a GOOD HORSE will therefore run on dirt or in the sloop and those angles really mean little. If you’re handicapping claimers and ‘bad’ horses, yes, save your tool bag, but that CRAP does not apply to GOOD HORSES. And the pre-first turn Derby traffic again did in several horses this year as it always does, thusly “Dunkirk” was one that fell in among that number!! Too bad, but then again, would he or anybody else really have beaten “Bo-rail” and that flying Bird on that particular day anyway!??! that being, of course, unless the jockey field would have taken away the rail from Borel???, which they should have done!!

re: Haskin's Derby Report: The Picks

zarvona — Sun, 03 May 2009 18:11:16 GMT

PS Good recap Gunbow!! I too am scratching my head and at this point the only thing filling my pocket is the danduff!!! "shocked" is stating it mildly Easy Goer!!!

re: Haskin's Derby Report: The Picks

EasyGoerFan — Sun, 03 May 2009 13:12:15 GMT

I was shocked by the result and disappointed because General Quarters was never in the race at any point, but then I saw Calvin's face and I immediately started smiling. (and misting up a bit when he was crying about his parents not seeing how his life turned out) That man has had a tough life and it is so nice that he gets to experience the greatest joy the racing world has to offer. He earned those roses. That was a helluva ride.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: The Picks

da3hoss — Sun, 03 May 2009 11:49:38 GMT

the_wiz, I hope you listened to your grandaughter!!!

I am doing the dance of joy as I remind one and all, (ad nauseum), that in SH's "48 Hours" blog I mentioned to "beware non-descript little brown horses that motor on while the "better" horses battle"....e.g. his daddy!

I'm glad he won by so many lengths so the naysayers can't claim (though the pundits will) it was a "Bo-rail skimming" ride that got him there first...everyone else had a chance to get squeezed back at the gate and drop to last and then blow by 18 other horses, just because they chose another strategy...LOL.

He should be good for racing, here and in Canada, he has a neat story and it seems connections appeal. Let's all wish him well.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: The Picks

GunBow — Sun, 03 May 2009 10:39:07 GMT

Horse that had run primarily on synthetics ran 1-2-4-5

re: Haskin's Derby Report: The Picks

GunBow — Sun, 03 May 2009 09:54:55 GMT

wiz:

I'm happy and amazed for you getting the $20,000. To be honest, I was never one to play around with multi-race exotics; I always took them too serious, making more of them than they are. I do think I'm like most, and have put a few dollars here and there on certain horses to win or show for reasons not dictated by pure handicapping. However , I never used such horses in the more exotic wagers, particularly since each additional horse multiplies the cost of the ticket.

I am going to assume that your granddaughter was not just lucky picking Mine That Bird; I think it's in her blood to pick winners. The real luck was taking her horse and putting it in a pick 4. Of all the bets? A simple win ticket would have sufficed(lol)! How did you ever decide to put the grandkid's horse in a pick 4? How much of the winnings is she going to get?

You had to be sweating the Humana Distaff and Woodford Reserve? Informed Decision had just beaten Ventura in the last strides of the gr.1 Madison, and did the same thing in the Humana. And while Cowboy Cal was tough in the Woodford Reserve, one just had a feeling Einstein was going to get the nod. There is a reason he has won 5 grade 1 races.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: The Picks

GunBow — Sun, 03 May 2009 08:52:12 GMT

Let's see, here were Mine That Bird's credentials going in-

Class: Ran 2nd and 4th in non-graded New Mexico stakes this year. No horse had ever won the Derby via Sunland or any other track in New Mexico(I believe). The horses that beat him in N.M. were allowance horses in SoCal, led by Kelly Leak (a horse I saw at Santa Anita's opening week) and Scorewithcarter. MTB was 12th and last in his 2 year old finale, the Breeders Cup Juvenile, his only grade 1 race prior to the Derby.

Speed: He had the lowest Beyer figures in the field. His career best was a 81. I wonder if Andy Beyer is going to review and revise his Sunland figs? Since Beyers have been published in 1991, only two horses had won the Derby without having run a figure of 100 or higher, but at least Sea Hero had a 99 and Giacomo a 98. We're talking 81 here. That put Mine That Bird about 10 lengths behind Giacomo!

Breeding: Birdstone is turning into a nice sire and all, but Mine That Bird had the Highest Dosage Index in the field at 5.40. The lowest Beyers and the highest Dosage!

Surface History: Mine That Bird had not won a race on dirt. His only victories had come on Woodbine's synthetic surface.

Trainer: Mine That Bird's trainer Bennie Wooley is a virtual unknown nationally, and was a Derby rookie. Wooley had only had MTB since the beginning of this year.

Auction History: He was purchased for a paltry $9,500 as a yearling.

Sex: Mine That Bird is a gelding. Previously, only 8 geldings had won the Derby, but Funny Cide in 2003 had been the first to do it in almost 75 years, since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929.

Layoff: Mine That Bird entered the Derby off a 5 week layoff. Recently, Big Brown and Barbaro had won the Derby off just such a layoff, so it probably doesn't hold that much significance anymore. Still, prior to Barbaro, one had to go all the way back to Needles in '55 to find a horse that won the Derby off a 5 week layoff.

Works: Mine That Bird only worked once at Churchill, Monday April 27th. He worked 5 furlongs in 1:02, which ranked 19th of 26. So, no bullet work.

2 year old foundation: Here we have some positives, finally! He started 6 times as a juvenile, and won 4.

2 year old back-class: Mine That Bird had won a graded stakes prior to the Derby. It was only a grade 3, and in Canada. However, the race, the Grey Stakes, is traditionally Canada's top open (not just Canadian breds) juvenile race, and had already produced one Kentucky Derby winner before, Sunny's Halo (won the Grey in 82', Derby in 83'). Yet, as mentioned, Mine That Bird had run last in his only US start, the Breeders Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita.

Jockey: Probably the best thing Mine That Bird had going for him was his jockey, Calvin Borel. Borel had already won a Derby just 2 years ago with the late-running Street Sense, and is known for his mastery of Churchill, particularly the rail. He also has had a history of winning big Churchill stakes at huge odds, such as the 06' Stephen Foster on Seek Gold, yet another late runner. Combine Borel's knowledge of Churchill, his ability to navigate the rail, and his past success in winning big stakes at the track with late-runners, and you have the perfect jockey for Mine That Bird.

I suppose it all balances out.......not! Or, at least it shouldn't have had if all this stuff we have been discussing the past 3 months means anything. I'm only half kidding, but this is just one crazy head-scratcher.

What makes it all the more absurd is that Mine That Bird won by 7. The race wasn't even close. However, the final time of 2:02 and 3/5 was fairly solid for what had been a slow, tiring track. The race did fall apart, given the fact no other horse was within 7 lengths of MTB at the finish, but horses like Pioneer of the Nile, Musket Man, and Papa Clem did not run terribly. I fully expect Mine That Bird's Beyer to be in the 103-108 range.

re: Haskin's Derby Report: The Picks

Matthew W — Sun, 03 May 2009 08:03:46 GMT

Very Volponi like Derby--only this colt's 50-1 odds seemed about 100 points low--he looked that bad on paper...It was the track--those (tired) guys were fairly bunched at top of stretch--very strung out at the finish--Maybe IWR and Quality Road will benefit from not having run yesterday--I was proud of Pioneer--he was tired but held them off for second--no way was he gonna beat the winner---BTW is that exacta the ultimate "Beyer-Buster"??? Anyways I had a strong sense that there were few guys in there that could get the distance this year...average fans have no idea how shocking this result is and that has just gotta be the track--POTN/Musket Man/Papa Clem all showed they're for real--I'm certain I Want Revenge is real...at least Giacomo could hit the board in Gr 1's---ole number eight, Mine That Bird freaked into Derby lore....I'll leave him outta my Preakness tris....

re: Haskin's Derby Report: The Picks

the_wiz — Sun, 03 May 2009 01:52:46 GMT

I'm stunned. First about who won and second about how I hit the late pick 4. I took 5 horses in the 8th race, singled Informed Decision and Einstein in the next two, used my top 3 picks for the Derby, and took my 4 yr old grandsons and my 3 yr old granddaughters pick in the Derby as well. 5x1x1x5x1=25.00 and it paid over 20 grand!! By the way it was my 3 yr old grandaughter who picked the winner by name because she likes birds. This game can humble one in a hurry and sometimes you get very very lucky.