Random Breeders' Cup Thoughts

re: Random Breeders' Cup Thoughts

kelsothegreat — Tue, 29 Oct 2013 17:25:18 GMT

Visually I have not seen a better looking horse than "My Conquestadory" who looked like a 6yr old rather than a 2 yr old filly in both her wins. Mark Casse has had other good looking 2 yr olds that flopped in the recent past and with the 14 hole in a turf race she is begging to be beaten but I don't think so. The jockey is top notch in Canada and suspect he would be at any track in NA and won't get unnerved. This is a special filly and IF she can run on dirt yet to be tried I suspect she just may be "That Good" to race on the First Saturday in May race than the Friday--Casse is a very good horseman and predicted her talent before she raced and started her against good colts at a distance--not sprint and she literally blew them away in her first start---A Super Filly? Maybe?

If you are a bettor--this may be the last price over $3.00 you will ever get on her.

On another note--Although he is against it Point of Entry is the certainly good enough if ready---again the price may warrant the risk--if without a hiccup he would be odds on--Now is he that good given the injury? I think he may be given my confidence in his trainer--He wouldn't be here if he wasn't.

These the are not cold facts--they are observations over many years of WATCHING races and their human connections.

And this is a chalky prediction Wise Dan wins again and actually pays $5.00 plus--not making excuses for loss--just think he won't lose on turf.

re: Random Breeders' Cup Thoughts

Rusty Weisner — Fri, 18 Oct 2013 14:12:12 GMT

JayJay,

Verrazano is a bolder and better bet here than he was in the Travers just from the perspective of odds, as he's coming off a flop where the form cycle and probably distance weren't to his liking. I don't know if I like him, because I don't "get" this horse the way I get PM; his victories are soft. But heck, if you like him, now's the time to bet him.

I want to know Coldfacts' pick, too, and picks for the past few years if he's willing. All I remember about his BC picks was the awful Japanese horse a few years back.

re: Random Breeders' Cup Thoughts

JayJay — Fri, 18 Oct 2013 02:19:48 GMT

LOL at "I will say no more..." which would make more sense if you actually said anything about it before. I never asked you to think for me, I was wondering if you even research or you just get carried away by the impressive wins. So if your wish came true, and Verrazano runs in the Classic, are you going to bet him against Graydar, another Pletcher horse you're touting ? You must think Verrazano is a monster to guarantee a win for him in the Classic since you mentioned that it would be suicidal to go with Fort Larned and GoD...do you really see Verrazano coming from behind to win against that Classic field ? I checked his record (although I already knew it), and I can't find any race where he won from off the pace, he's never been a deep stalker / closer. He has always won on the front or part of the pace. I don't know fi you're aware of that...guaranteeing his win in the Classic. I told you, you should pray he stays in the Dirt Mile, he has a better chance of hitting the board or even winning it.

Coldfacts : I've been reading all your posts and I'm not sure if you have already (maybe I missed it), but who is your pick in the Classic ? You said the oldies won't win it, I think at some point you also discounted the 3 yr olds so I'm curious as to who you're going to play or who are you looking at right now to win the Classic ?

re: Random Breeders' Cup Thoughts

-Keelerman — Thu, 17 Oct 2013 16:38:04 GMT

Rusty Weisner;

I believe that Palace Malice is capable of turning in a career-best effort in the Classic, although he would likely require optimum circumstances to do so. As Steve Haskin pointed out in a recent blog post, Palace Malice ran sixty-seven feet farther than Ron the Greek in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, which equate to 7.8 lengths. If one assumes for a moment that Palace Malice had worked out a ground-saving trip in the Gold Cup, instead of spending the entire race three paths wide, Palace Malice might have won the race by a length. That would have led to a Beyer speed figure of about 115, a number that should contend for victory in this year's Classic.

Of course, this means nothing in regard to how Palace Malice will run two weeks from now. My only point is that I believe Palace Malice is capable of running fast enough to win the Classic, even if he hasn't necessarily done so to this point.

re: Random Breeders' Cup Thoughts

-Keelerman — Thu, 17 Oct 2013 16:28:47 GMT

Coldfacts and Ranagulzion;

Thank you for your thoughts! You both made excellent points regarding Take Control and his potential stud career, and I do believe that winning a graded stakes race is the reason why he has been kept in training. That's why I'm particularly excited that Bob Baffert and Kaleem Shah have persevered with him for so long -- I believe that they know they have a special colt on their hands, and would like to give potential breeders a chance to see what he can do.

re: Random Breeders' Cup Thoughts

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 17 Oct 2013 14:00:42 GMT

Ranagulzion,

I'm inclined to side with both you and Coldfacts on this one, re pace.

Frankly, I like GOD here right now, especially after what happened last year. Not very original. But I play every which way BC day and I'll have a ticket where I oppose him. I look like that GEICO money guy on BC day...at least at the start of the day.

re: Random Breeders' Cup Thoughts

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 17 Oct 2013 13:53:48 GMT

Coldfacts,

Your arithmetic is correct. So much the better if he's averages 9.85f per race.

"The colt should be put away for the rest of the year."

Maybe, but you also said something to the same effect before he ran in the Derby, that he would be ruined by too many races.

I appreciate your comments. The horse is not a single for me in the Classic, but I rate him a chance. Who do you like?

Moving on to other BC races...

re: Random Breeders' Cup Thoughts

Coldfacts — Thu, 17 Oct 2013 13:14:05 GMT

Cassandra.Says,

American bloodline was never referenced in in any post.

"The term was American bred and Euro raced"

American bred as you are well aware refers to horses foaled in America. This has nothing to do with their ancestries.

re: Random Breeders' Cup Thoughts

Coldfacts — Thu, 17 Oct 2013 12:10:25 GMT

Rusty Weisner,

"The argument about Pletcher may be a good one. But a lot of those horses were not 10f horses"

The only horse from the list that I consider not a 10F horse is Uncle Mo.

Great trainers get 9F horses to go the extra furlong with effective stamina building programs.

"You say 7 races have been grueling (you have miscounted the number of furlongs because he didn't average 10f per race)"

LA Derby 9F (Mar)

Bluegrass 9F (Arp)

Kentucky Derby 10F (May)

Belmont 12F (Jun)

Jim Dandy 9F (Jul)

Travers 10F (Aug)

Jockey Club 10F (Sep)

My arithmetic is bad but the above total number of furlongs amount to 69. The average being 9.85F per race.

"he's only run four races in the past five months."

Palace Malice has contested a race every month for 2013.

"I think it's ridiculous to predict going off form based on this, especially when you were so wrong earlier in the year."

I predicted he would no chance of winning the Derby based on his crammed schedule of pre Derby races. He finished 12th. What was incorrect about that prediction?

I suggested that he was likely to be negatively impacted by his rammed and grueling pre Derby race schedule. He turned out to be tougher than I expected.

Many of the top Derby contenders that finished ahead of him left the scene with injuries and Orb went off form. This opened opportunities for him. Is he a better colt than his stable mate Revolutionary?

Will take Charge was a non-factor in the TC series and has returned to win twice with a narrow loss and a victory over PM.

The likes of Revolutionary, Normandy Invasion, Oxbow and other top colts who were better than Will Take Charge have left the scene.

You make it appear that PM has been a win machine. He has won twice from 9 starts in 2013.

"Time only counts in jail."

Only two Belmont winners have won the BCC. A P Indy's time of 2:26 was the fastest since Secretariat. He recorded a time od 2:00 plus in his BCC victory.

Drosselemyer won the Belmont in a tine of 2:31.57 and the BCC in 2:04 plus.

Can PM record a time of 2:00 plus for 10? This is the time it will take to win the BCC. Needless to say he has not won at 10F in three attempts.

The colt should be put away for the rest of the year.

re: Random Breeders' Cup Thoughts

Greg R — Thu, 17 Oct 2013 04:41:12 GMT

Ranalguzion: You mention POS's running in the Classic. Has there been any hint of that or is it just a fantasy? You compare that possibility to Treve's running in the Arc and refer to the weight allowance. Three yr-old fillies in the Arc receive TWELVE pounds from their male elders, I believe, and that is an enormous advantage over 1 1/2 miles, especially over testing ground. I have argued, to the consternation of some here, that the eye-popping Arc wins of certain sophomore fillies have been terrific, but not quite what they appear, when one considers how much that disproportionate weight gap distorts the results. Anyway, I estimate that POS would need at least eight or nine lb. from Dude and company to gain a similar edge in the Classic. Maybe she doesn't need that much to be competitive, but otherwise we can't really compare her situation to Treve's.

re: Random Breeders' Cup Thoughts

Cassandra.Says — Thu, 17 Oct 2013 04:32:27 GMT

Could we perhaps refer to her as "the Princess" rather than POS?

As for the Euros with American bloodlines: Neither Northern Dancer nor Nasrullah was American-bred.

re: Random Breeders' Cup Thoughts

Greg R — Thu, 17 Oct 2013 04:09:14 GMT

You're right, I think the the Juvenile Filly Turf could have the strongest field we have seen for that race. Some commentators have not rated Conquestadory's races very highly, but they were sure exciting to watch. I look forward to seeing how her closing kick matches up to the competition.

re: Random Breeders' Cup Thoughts

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 17 Oct 2013 02:52:51 GMT

Coldfacts,

The argument about Pletcher may be a good one. But a lot of those horses were not 10f horses (Quality Road, the post-illness Uncle Mo). This one is better, I think.

You say 7 races have been grueling (you have to have miscounted the number of furlongs because he didn't average 10f per race) but he's only run four races in the past five months. I think it's ridiculous to predict going off form based on this, especially when you were so wrong earlier in the year. And he hasn't had some outlier effort lately that you'd expect to cause a bounce. And he just beat older horses (except for that one), including Flat Out on his home track. And to re-address his Belmont time: time only counts in jail. I only count the 6f and 8f splits. They're the only things that matter when looking at that race.

Every argument you bounce back at me just makes me like the horse more, and I wasn't originally inclined to bet a 3yo against older. That said, this lineup looks tough, with a lot of speed that seems to need the lead, though PM likes to track the pace. I missed the boat on Ron the Greek; that's the kind of horse I might have given a chance here.

re: Random Breeders' Cup Thoughts

Ranagulzion — Thu, 17 Oct 2013 01:23:12 GMT

jay jay,

I'll say no more about Verrazano except, bet against him at the peril of your pocket in the Breeders Cup. You go and research his race record and watch the videos ...dont expect one whom you think doesn't think to do your thinking for you my friend.

re: Random Breeders' Cup Thoughts

Ranagulzion — Thu, 17 Oct 2013 01:17:35 GMT

Rusty,

I can't see Palace malice winning the BCC but I can envision him being judiciously ridden to eek out a place or show spot that could garner him a fairly hansome purse money from a $5M Grade 1 race and the 3YO Eclipse award.

It would be suicidal for Johnny V to duke it out on the front end with Fort Larned and Game On Dude, trying to run those two into the ground and still expect to hit the board. Johnny V is not that kind of jockey ...he'll stalk and save his best run for the home sretch which will most likely earn him some purse money as Palace malice will fight on after stalking a gruelling pace.

His stable mate Graydar has a better shot at winning the race from a position of contesting the early pace. Anyway, one of these Pletcher horses will need to comit to contesting the early fractions or Game On Dude and Fort Larned could do a repeat of the Gohstzapper and Roses In May collusion to set up an agreed pace scenario thats advantageous to both horses and kills off the competition.

This years Breeders Cup Classic will be all about pace strategy, especially for the first half mile. More anon.

re: Random Breeders' Cup Thoughts

JayJay — Wed, 16 Oct 2013 23:29:23 GMT

Signal : I'm not sure yet, but if I have to make a pick now, I would be on Wise Dan and Toronado. It's just a matter of how much I would put on WD, I have a feeling that WD's race will be either very good or very bad meaning if it's very bad, he won't hit the board which means the exotics will be very juicy.

I'm still looking at Toronado, trying to look for his races in youtube. A lot of my bets will depend on race day, have to see how the horses look during the post parade.

Ranagulzion : You really should give it up. It's very sad that you used the 4th place finishers of PM and UR's belmonts for your argument. PM was .28 slower than UR's Belmont, and I won't even go into the caliber of horses he beat compared to UR's. You also should give up trying to pick a star, you failed miserably in the last couple of years. This year, you picked DoJ who supposedly would've toyed with the boys if allowed to run yet struggled in the Oaks. And don't even try and use DoJ's future races to redeem yourself...you have all but forgotten bout the horse after she struggled trying to get 3rd in the Oaks. The only reason you remember her is because I mentioned her as your "star is born" pick for this year. Oh, and I don't rely on Signal's post for my discussion with you, unlike you do with JerseyBoy's to prove your point. Still, you haven't posted any information as to why you picked Verrazano to win his next race....it's not a hard question, it does require thinking though.

re: Random Breeders' Cup Thoughts

Coldfacts — Wed, 16 Oct 2013 23:27:25 GMT

Rusty Weisner,

Palace Malice will be forwardly placed and that will compromise his chances of winning.

I forecast he will be a bust.

Todd Pletcher's BCC Record:

2011 - Uncle Mo 10th

2011 - Stay Thirsty 11th

2010 - Quality Road 12th

2009 - Quality Road (DNS)

2008 - Fairbanks 10th

2007 - Any Given Saturday 6th

2007 - Lawyer Ron 7th

2006 - Lawyer Ron 9th

2006 - Flower Alley 11th

2005 - Flower Alley 2nd

2004 - Newfoundland 12th

2002 - Harlan's Holiday 9th

Mr. Pletcher has an abysmal record in the BCC. Eleven starters one 2nd. He has colt that has covered 69F in his last 7 races

entering the BCC starting gates in 2013.

Does he deserve a vote of confidence?

re: Random Breeders' Cup Thoughts

Coldfacts — Wed, 16 Oct 2013 22:16:50 GMT

Rusty Weisner,

"You are being stubborn about Palace Malice."

Do you seriously believe a Belmont winner that recorded a time of 2:30 plus can record a time of 2:00 plus for 10F at SA Park?

In Palace Malice's last 7 races he covered 69F. I think he should pass on the BCC and be freshened for a 4YO campaign.

He was only able to win 2 of his last 7 stats and he now expected to win the biggest 10F race in the country after such a brutal series of races. It will not happen.

re: Random Breeders' Cup Thoughts

Rusty Weisner — Wed, 16 Oct 2013 19:27:02 GMT

I would welcome a handicapper who thinks he knows something about form cycles to make a prediction about Palace Malice based on his past four performances. Boom or bust? Or just another reliable performance?

re: Random Breeders' Cup Thoughts

Rusty Weisner — Wed, 16 Oct 2013 19:24:21 GMT

Coldfacts,

You are being stubborn about Palace Malice. To your credit, you endorsed him early for his Derby and Belmont pedigree but you made the mistake then of saying he had had too many races and would be hobbled. You're doing it again.

re: Random Breeders' Cup Thoughts

Rusty Weisner — Wed, 16 Oct 2013 19:21:18 GMT

A lot of people at this site liked Palace Malice to win the Belmont so it's worth something that people are expressing a lot of support for him for the BC. He's against a tough bunch of his elders, but there are a couple I prefer him to: Mucho Macho Man hasn't won at 10f, and I don't bet a horse to win at 10f until they win at 10f. Fort Larned lucked out last year and was off form this summer after his big performance. GOD is the only one of the biggies up front I don't consider vulnerable. I give PM a chance at the exacta but may look for some old salt to pick up the pieces behind GOD. Then again, PM is a sentimental favorite and maybe after three even performances in the 105-107 Beyer range he has one more bust-out race? One thing he has going in his favor is that he seems tough on any track, and SA might be a track to his liking where he can use and carry his speed.

So how are the other races coming into focus for everyone? I think I like Private Zone right now in the sprint. I think the Juvenile will blow up the board, though I have a tepid interest in Havana being disrespected a la Hansen.

re: Random Breeders' Cup Thoughts

Rusty Weisner — Wed, 16 Oct 2013 18:57:29 GMT

Coldfacts,

It's "Arcangues".

re: Random Breeders' Cup Thoughts

Ranagulzion — Wed, 16 Oct 2013 17:43:42 GMT

Coldfacts & Keelerman,

Take Control is a talented horse that has been plagued by unsoundness. Had the connections not been convinced about his ability I believe they would've retired him long ago but the know that a good graded stakes win especially over a distance of ground would spike his stud value, hence their persistence. He could be in with a shot in the BC Marathon if fit enough.

re: Random Breeders' Cup Thoughts

Coldfacts — Wed, 16 Oct 2013 09:15:32 GMT

Keelerman,

Take Control was acquired for $1m plus after the Paulson's Trust had refused $7M for him.

At the time of the refusal I post that if I were the owner of the yearling, not only would I have taken the $7M but would have sold the mare as well.

I cannot recall anywhere in history where two HOY have produced a champion.

I cannot recall where a HOY mare has produce a champion as well.

If Take Control was retired he would probably command a stud fee of $2,000 at best. He has only won a MSW and an Optional Claim Allowance.

His best finish in a graded race was 4th in the (G2)San Diego. He finished 10th in the G1 Awesome Again.

The connections have no option but to persist with him until he at least win a graded race and increase HIS STUD VALUE

re: Random Breeders' Cup Thoughts

-Keelerman — Wed, 16 Oct 2013 01:54:38 GMT

Age of Reason;

It's great to hear from you, too!

I've been a fan of Take Control ever since he broke his maiden, so I'm pretty thrilled that he is finally sound enough to be considered for a start in the Breeders' Cup! It's so unfortunate that he has only run three times in the last four years. I give a lot of credit to Bob Baffert and Kaleem Shah for their patience in getting him back to the races!

On the same note, I'm very excited to have Point of Entry back for the Breeders' Cup. After his injury in June, it would have been so easy to just retire him to stud, but instead, we get to enjoy his presence at another Breeders' Cup! After that near miss last year, I'm really hoping he can end his career on a winning note. That would be an amazing story.