The Battle Within the Battle

re: The Battle Within the Battle

lunar spook — Wed, 30 Oct 2013 19:12:30 GMT

JAY JAY- FIRST OFF DECLARATION OF WAR HAS 3 WINS ON SYNTHETICS AND HAS GREAT DIRT RUNNERS IN HIS PEDIGREE, SECOND OFF AIDEN OBRIEN GIVES HIS HORSES LONG BREAKS OFTEN AND THEY PERFORM WELL THIRD, THE PLANE RIDE HASNT SEEM TO BOTHER ANY OF THE OTHER HORSES HES WON WITH OVER HERE !!!

re: The Battle Within the Battle

JayJay — Tue, 29 Oct 2013 03:25:55 GMT

Okay, I'll stop about Power Broker, just realized, he was probably never nominated hehe.

re: The Battle Within the Battle

JayJay — Mon, 28 Oct 2013 23:59:06 GMT

El Kabong : Thanks, I normally don't pay attention to the track condition as I really don't know what it means lol. Dead, Slow, Good...I'm not sure how they determine the condition at all. They do have that info in the PPs with regards to how many times the horse ran in each condition which helps but I'd like to understand what does "dead" mean...is it like ultra-taxing? like really deep? or is that "Slow" ? I don't know what "Good" condition is on turf... I'm only familiar with firm... yielding... etc.

Honestly though, I can lose all my .20 supers (since I don't really bet much) and still have fun watching the races. I really enjoy watching the horses run over there. I feel that a part of me is aussie... not sure which though, the top half or the bottom half.

Has anyone heard anything about Power Broker ?

re: The Battle Within the Battle

JayJay — Mon, 28 Oct 2013 05:33:28 GMT

mz : I played Schofield all over my ticket and I would've had the exacta if Fiorente held on for 2nd. I had the 2 horse in one of my .20 supers but that's pretty much it. It was fun watching him win the race, I really liked his post and he was getting 21 lbs from most of the field. Schofield reminds me of Talamo, tough on the lead.

Coldfacts : Declaration of War will be going to the Classic coming from a 2 1/2 month layoff, on a surface he hasn't run on all year, and not to mention the long plane ride...I honestly can't see him being a factor at all. The only angle you've mentioned about him is his pedigree and that he's a 4 yr old. If GoD falters, I can see him beating him in the race but actually winning the Classic ?

I actually think Toronado is a better horse than Declaration of War...

re: The Battle Within the Battle

El Kabong — Sun, 27 Oct 2013 14:53:46 GMT

Jay Jay,

I have been playing Aussie tracks for a few years now. The .20 cent super is a great bet because of the pools and the price allows for deep tickets which are very necessary. I have noticed that the track condition is extremely important and that goes for the Melbourne Cup as well. I watch it like a hawk on Cup night. Horse for the course condition does apply and can really allow you to narrow the field for a winner. Good luck, hope that helps.

re: The Battle Within the Battle

El Kabong — Sun, 27 Oct 2013 14:45:09 GMT

Pedigree Ann,

How about a 3year old Maiden getting the Cox Plate with an apprentice jock. What an effort. Getting real excited for the Melbourne Cup.

re: The Battle Within the Battle

Ranagulzion — Sat, 26 Oct 2013 21:56:28 GMT

Rusty Weisner 25 Oct 2013 12:51 PM

Voltaire was not much of a macho man ...against God, that dude had no game and perished ...so much for his declaration of war.

The "Macho Man" is looking awesome again for the BC Classic :)

re: The Battle Within the Battle

JayJay — Sat, 26 Oct 2013 19:10:50 GMT

Power Broker is no longer listed in the Dirt Mile but also not listed in other races. Anyone heard of what's going on with Power Broker ?

re: The Battle Within the Battle

mz — Sat, 26 Oct 2013 18:22:42 GMT

JayJay: never mind the tracks and jockeys, it would be nice if I could get the horses' names right!

Fiorente was my choice in the Cox Plate but he finished 3rd

And I find looking at the entries while waiting for the races really helps to puzzle out the 'Strain accent

re: The Battle Within the Battle

Linda in Texas — Sat, 26 Oct 2013 16:35:01 GMT

Points Offthebench - Big Beautiful Chocolate Colored Talented Racehorse with High Expectations For What Now Won't Be and A Grade 1 Winner - Just cheered him on earlier this month. Condolences to his connections and his trainer Tim Yakteen. Points Offthebench's last win was Tim's first Grade 1 Win.

Another Great Horse Who Gave It His All on A Racetrack. Rest in Peace.

re: The Battle Within the Battle

Coldfacts — Sat, 26 Oct 2013 14:17:11 GMT

JayJay,

Some of the statements I have posted would suggest that was intoxicated when said were conceived. Where I am from, points contained in such statements are regarded as ‘Rum Points’.

The Dough O’Neil trainer Rum Point will make his dirt debut in the BCJ and I love him as longshot. Although he has won a synthetic, he appeared to be struggling in the Futurity on the Keenland water saturated synthetic course but battled on for 4th.

I love his pedigree being by Derby winning sire Malibu Moon out of a mare sired by Quiet American of Bernardini and Saint Liam broodmare sire fame.

What is also noteworthy about his pedigree is the 2nd dam, Amirati. She was sired by Danzig and out of Weekend Surprise of A P Indy and Summer Squall fame.

Call me drunk but he is a worthy exotic inclusion.

re: The Battle Within the Battle

Davids — Sat, 26 Oct 2013 11:34:06 GMT

I think the racing commentators from Melbourne, Australia (Jim McGrath (ex-BBC), the late Bill Collins among others) are the best I've heard, worldwide.

Moreover, their Spring Racing Carnival meeting, which is on now in Melbourne is, arguably, the most enjoyable carnival to attend. The Melbourne Cup even has a public holiday in its honor- first Tuesday in November.

Mind you, their riding style could be vastly improved with less use of the whip.

re: The Battle Within the Battle

Rusty Weisner — Fri, 25 Oct 2013 16:51:27 GMT

Voltaire,

"Its my Declaration Of War against GOD."

Priceless.

re: The Battle Within the Battle

JayJay — Fri, 25 Oct 2013 16:19:41 GMT

mz : Yes, it's fun to watch the aussie races, it's a challenge to actually bet them but that makes it even more fun when I actually picked the right combination. I think it's probably one of the places where jockeys, horses and connections run a true horse race. Just seems to be honest, horses who are the best on the day wins, regardless of the odds. I play a lot of Schofield, Shinn, Duric and Ms O'Hara and B Avdulla. P Robl is like my Russell Baze, can never catch him when he's a price play and never bet him on a winning favorite. I only play the last 3 races of the C track, .20 P3s and I use the dart board handicapping for that lol.

I've learned to identify my horses during the race by trying to remember the silks and helmet they wear, rather than the number. At first, I was going by the name but sometimes, the announcer talks way too fast for me to understand, by the time I figured out what name he said, the race is over.

re: The Battle Within the Battle

Coldfacts — Fri, 25 Oct 2013 13:33:48 GMT

JerseyBoy,

I will readily admit that I possess numerous weaknesses. Chief amongst them is laziness.

Many times I read some of my posts I observe embarrassing errors. These errors could have been caught if I had spent the requisite time editing the submission.

Editing is tricky as one is not necessarily reading from displays on a monitor but from a memorized version of what was actually typed.

Irrespective, I can do a better job with time spent.

On the subject of spelling, I have become reliant on technology. Again not enough time is spent verifying that words suggested are those intended for use.

This lead to recurring usage of incorrect words which equate to laziness and a lack of attention to details.

re: The Battle Within the Battle

mz — Fri, 25 Oct 2013 02:16:09 GMT

JayJay and Pedigree Ann: nice to know there are other vampires watching the Australian races and trying to figure them out. Fioravanti in the Cox Plate.

re: The Battle Within the Battle

Alex'sBigFan — Thu, 24 Oct 2013 23:28:50 GMT

Great article here Steve. I agree Palace Malice and Will Take Charge seem to be the best of the 3 yr. old crop but I think they are up against it in the Classic facing experienced older males like Flat Out, G.O.D., Fort Larned, Mucho Macho Man, and my Paynter.

Personally, from an emotional perspective, I hope Paynter aces the whole Classic. That was my dream that Paynter would win the Classic and put the icing on the miracle we already witnessed with him. However, should Paynter come in last in the Classic, he is still a winner to me. He won life itself. Biggest winner of all.

Now interesting about the "battle within the battle" for the 3yr. old championship. I agree that if Palace and WTC run poorly in the Classic the door opens for Oxbow, how can forget little Oxbow? He ran his heart out during the TC races. I agree also if they run huge it's one or the other for that title.

We started out with a war theme with General Pletcher and General Baffert this year, so how fitting is it that the Euros are sending one called "Declaration of War."

HOY could be G.O.D., Princess of Sylmar, Royal Delta, Wise Dan. What if Wise Dan, Princess of Sylmar, and G.O.D. all win their respective BC races, what then for HOY?

How terrible about Dullahan. RIP Dullahan, you won't be forgotten. It's amazing how such big strong animals have so many colic and intestinal related issues.

Going offside here but can we go back to Hansen for a minute. Ok, so Dr. Hansen wanted him to stand stud in American and sold him to a farm here who in turn sold him to Korea. But Dr. Hansen was ADAMANT that Hansen remain in America, wouldn't there have been some clause in that deal prohibiting Hansen's sale elsewhere? And the article said Hansen, the horse, could, and I quote, "EARN HIS WAY BACK HERE" as if he had done something wrong and is being punished. Money and Greed rule once again, and although it may have been out of Dr. Hansen's hands, it all seems unfair to the horse. Hansen, the horse, deserves to stand stud here in America. I think we, as a breeding country should be bringing European bloodlines HERE, not exporting so many of our beloved thoroughbreds.

re: The Battle Within the Battle

JayJay — Thu, 24 Oct 2013 17:51:23 GMT

Pedigree Ann : Do you bet the aussie races or you just like to watch them ? I've been playing the night aussie races and I'm still trying to figure out a way to handicap it. I'm starting to get familiar with the good jockeys, it's still hard to remember the horses with 3 different tracks. I don't know how often the horses run and if they go back to the same tracks. I'm not sure how far the different tracks are from each other. There's also the different condition of the track (good, dead, slow) and have to remember that the program numbers do not match their post positions...it's tough so I only play the .20 cent supers but the payouts are very generous.

re: The Battle Within the Battle

Pedigree Ann — Thu, 24 Oct 2013 15:05:52 GMT

Cox Plate at 2000m (about 10f) coming up this Saturday (Friday night for us). Interesting that the Aussies hold their biggest wfa race in the Spring, yet some 3yos still manage to win it. Like putting a Derby candidate into the Santa Anita Hcp. (at wfa) on our schedule.

Only two 3yos entered this year, Long John who just won the G1 Caulfield Guineas two weeks ago, and Shamus Award, who was third in the same race. The Kiwi Dundeel (called It's a Dundeel in Oz), a Derby winner last year, is the one I like - won his last prep, the G1 Underwood.

Lots of Euro imports in the field, too, many of them prepping for the Melbourne Cup, including last year's winner Green Moon. I kind of like Seville, who just won the Metrop earlier in the month, going forward to the Cup, but I need to analyze the weights before then.

re: The Battle Within the Battle

Coldfacts — Thu, 24 Oct 2013 14:45:30 GMT

JayJay,

"If GOD looks good in the post parade, you'll play him."

Certainly, but no to win. It is likely that all the horses entering the richest race in the country will look good.

If I am unable to determine anything that differentiates any of the entrants, I normally default to other factors.

Under no circumstance will I wager GOD to win. There are just too many hurdles for him to cross.

I know his record in CA and the brilliance of his trainer.

I also know that his trainer has never won race even with better candidates; no horse on third attempt has won; no horse unplaced in the previous year has returned to win in the next and no 6YO has won.

If GOD displays wings in the post parade I would not wager him as a 6YO horse will only grow 6YO wings.

Its my Declaration Of War against GOD.

re: The Battle Within the Battle

JayJay — Thu, 24 Oct 2013 13:41:55 GMT

Coldfacts :

" I rely heavily on the appearance and demeanor of horses during a post parade to make my selections. For those with trained eye a horses demeanor can provide oceans of information not reflected in PPs. "

So after all the arguments and cold facts, if GoD looks good in the post parade, you'll play him. Basically, throwing away all your cold facts about him (or any 6 yr olds), about winning the Classic ?

re: The Battle Within the Battle

Coldfacts — Wed, 23 Oct 2013 23:56:04 GMT

JayJay,

I will certainly post a list of the horses I like to win each race. There is no guarantee they will ultimately be my picks come race day.

Picks are purely based on past performances and other factors. All those selection parameters can be rendered meaningless during a post parade.

A horse can have excellent credentials to win before it is seen in a post parade. its appearance and demeanor during a post parade can indicate it will not be competitive.

I rely heavily on the appearance and demeanor of horses during a post parade to make my selections. For those with trained eye a horses demeanor can provide oceans of information not reflected in PPs.

A lot of punters do not know what to look for during a post parade and consequently cannot determine that a five star banker will be a none factor.

re: The Battle Within the Battle

Coldfacts — Wed, 23 Oct 2013 23:26:58 GMT

JayJay’

I see your selections for the Juvenile Turf is Diamond Bachelor / Bobby's Kitten. I am not sure if you are aware that Godolphin is sending Champagne Stakes winner Outstrip to contest the race.

The son of Exceed and Excel is a very talented colt. His dam is from the ultra-successful Northern Dancer broodmare line.

With his addition to the field the locals are in trouble.

re: The Battle Within the Battle

JayJay — Wed, 23 Oct 2013 20:58:59 GMT

Coldfacts : Regarding Havana : OK and I'm looking forward to your next 11 posts about each and every horse I posted as my early pick. I just want to remind you though, there's less than 10 days before the BC races, I hope you find some time to handicap the races yourself and post your picks. I want to see how your cold facts play out to picking out the winners. Or does your cold facts only work on horses that won't win ?

Looking forward to your picks...

re: The Battle Within the Battle

Steve Haskin — Wed, 23 Oct 2013 19:44:37 GMT

Signal, I saw yours and didnt see that one. If I had seen it I wouldnt have posted that either. I cant moderate this blog myself, especially at such a busy time, so I wlll just say now to everyone, keep personal insults to yourself or take them somewhere else. Otherwise none of your posts will be allowed.