Haskin's Classic Report: Mucho Macho is Now The Man

re: Haskin's Classic Report: Mucho Macho is Now The Man

It aint easy being good! — Thu, 31 Oct 2013 15:50:32 GMT

Thanks coldfacts thats all I needed! Box them up with moreno, WTC, DOW & MMM book it! DOW WPS baby! With so much speed and alot of unknowns must take the foreign invader! I like the fact that older horses dont do well in the classic so you can toss RTG, Flat Out and GOD

re: Haskin's Classic Report: Mucho Macho is Now The Man

Greg R — Thu, 31 Oct 2013 04:24:45 GMT

I wasn't offering a complete listing; I was answering a yes or no question.

re: Haskin's Classic Report: Mucho Macho is Now The Man

Coldfacts — Wed, 30 Oct 2013 12:44:45 GMT

It ain't easy being good,

Do the 3YOs have any chance in the 2013 BCC? The level of success by 3YOs in the BCC is only better by 4YOs.

All the BCCs contested at SA Park have been complete in 2:00 plus or less. This time frame relates to both dirt and synthetic.

The 2012 BCC winner and runner up contested a combined two 10F races before their BCC effort:

Fort Larned - 3rd in JCGC completed in 2:01.44

MMM – 3rd Kentucky Derby completed in 2:02.04.

Both races were their 1st attempts at the distance.

How do the 3YOs compare at the distance?

Palace Malice – 12t in K/Derby (2:02.89); 4th in Travers(2:02.68) and 2nd in JCGC (1:59.70) 3 attempts

WTC - 8th in K/Derby (2:02.89); 1st in Travers (2:02.68). 2 attempt

Moreno - 1st in Travers (2:02.68) 1 attempt

Palace Malice appears to have the best time for the distance but it was on his 3rd attempt on a track known for quick times at the distance. Pleasant Tap’s 1:58.80 is the sakes record for the distance.

In Moreno’s first attempts at 9F, 1 3/16F & 10F, he finished 3nd 4th & 2nd.

In PM first efforts at 9F, 10F & 12F, he finished 7th, 12th and 1st.

In WTC first efforts at 9F, 10F & 1 3/16F, he finished 1st, 8th and 10th

The late bloomer Moreno appears to have a better record at a distance of ground than both PM and WTC despite the fact that both have beaten.

He was defeated by the Belmont winner and returned to finish ahead of him in his 1st attempt at 10F. He was runner up to WTC twice but might have been a victim of his brutal 11 & 12 program preceding those races.

If he can improve a couple of seconds with his 6 weeks between races, he has to be the 3YO with the best shot. Again, his sire and dam sire won the race so it in his blood.

re: Haskin's Classic Report: Mucho Macho is Now The Man

Coldfacts — Wed, 30 Oct 2013 12:09:59 GMT

Greg R,

How could you not mention Curlin the last local based 3YO to win the BCC.

The US bred and European raced Raven's Pass also won the BCC as a 3YO.

re: Haskin's Classic Report: Mucho Macho is Now The Man

Greg R — Wed, 30 Oct 2013 05:04:01 GMT

It ain't easy being good!: "Has a 3 year old ever won the Classic before?" Yes, including KY Derby winners Sunday Silence and Unbridled. Concern was less highly regarded coming into his Classic victory.

re: Haskin's Classic Report: Mucho Macho is Now The Man

JayJay — Wed, 30 Oct 2013 00:40:51 GMT

Coldfacts : One can argue that since older horses have come in 2nd in the past, they could win this year's Classic right ? I'm sure DoW can handle the dirt, he's 3 for 3 on it, but none of it was this year. If he wins, I'll consider him a very good horse as I've said in my previous posts, just too much to overcome for the Classic but good luck to you and DoW, may you both make a bundle this Saturday. I personally wouldn't bet my money based on the trainer's confidence on his horse...

IAEBG : Yes, many times before.

re: Haskin's Classic Report: Mucho Macho is Now The Man

lunar spook — Tue, 29 Oct 2013 18:06:27 GMT

CRIS- I agree with you I like declaration of war and palace malice also !!! with will take charge coming late , great minds think alike !! good luck !!!

re: Haskin's Classic Report: Mucho Macho is Now The Man

Cris — Tue, 29 Oct 2013 17:22:29 GMT

I find it interesting that so few have considered how good Declaration of War or Palace Malice could be in this race. Will Take Charge will be in the hunt as well. This is setting up to be a bang up horse race. If MMM wins it he will have to run the race of his life. Whoever loses I like a race where there are no excuses and I do hope it is one of those. Everyone come home safe with a check.

re: Haskin's Classic Report: Mucho Macho is Now The Man

Coldfacts — Tue, 29 Oct 2013 17:18:03 GMT

JayJay,

O'Brien has finished 2nd in the Classic twice.

He never considered that Turf Classic for DOW and that gives me confidence that he thinks the 4YO will hand the dirt.

re: Haskin's Classic Report: Mucho Macho is Now The Man

It aint easy being good! — Tue, 29 Oct 2013 16:50:32 GMT

Thank Jay jay for the post! Well that means I have narrowed my picks down to three horses. Declrations of War, WTC and possibly a bomb! No horse 6 or older has won the classic so you can toss GOD, RON. Post 1 is an auto toss for me! Same goes for the extreme outside! Has a 3 year old ever won the classic before?

re: Haskin's Classic Report: Mucho Macho is Now The Man

SCATDADDY59CAE — Tue, 29 Oct 2013 16:29:13 GMT

MMM IS THE ONE TO BEAT ,EVERYONE KNOWS THAT,SO GET IN LINE ,$20 PAR-W. MMM ON TOP OF PM, WTC , RTG

re: Haskin's Classic Report: Mucho Macho is Now The Man

Greg R — Tue, 29 Oct 2013 04:46:01 GMT

Mucho always has had the potential, but circumstances keep getting in the way so that he can never quite get in a groove. He's been hopscotched around the country, runs up against off tracks or other problems, his career has stopped and started fitfully......... Finally, conditions seem right and he is coming into the race that counts with momentum. I doubt Fort Larned can do it again. Ron the Greek's last race, IF repeated, could win this one - big question mark. The time he won the Big Cap, the pace melted down all over the track. G O D is capable of running them into the ground, but will he relax with the big, noisy crowd and with Moreno pestering him? At least he doesn't need to contend with Graydar or Cross Traffic's speed, as well. You never know when Flat Out will put forth his A++ effort, either. I wish them all well, including the young upstarts, but I'll take Mucho to fire a lifetime best or G O D to go out with a bang. (In a good way.)

re: Haskin's Classic Report: Mucho Macho is Now The Man

JayJay — Tue, 29 Oct 2013 01:36:22 GMT

It aint easy being good! : Rafael Bejarano doesn't have a horse in the Classic and Palace Malice, well, Johnny V is on him...

re: Haskin's Classic Report: Mucho Macho is Now The Man

JayJay — Tue, 29 Oct 2013 01:32:26 GMT

I can't get into this horse at all, not sure why but I just don't think he'll be in the mix at all. I'm going to stick with WTC on most of my tickets, I'll have GoD and RTG on one of my tickets (P3 and P4), I can't see anyone else other than those 3 winning the Classic.

Juvenile Turf : I'm liking Poker Player at 12-1 now that Diamond Bachelor switched to the Juvenile. I have no idea why they chose to run DB in the Juvenile.

Turf : This is the race I will most likely spread horses for the P3s and P4s. PoE, Indy Point, Twilight Eclipse and BBK.

Sprint : Was hoping to get 8-1 on Secret Circle in here but I guess that 1:07 got him the 4-1.

Looks like Wise Dan will again be my best bet of the whole weekend just like last year...having seen the field, I just don't see anyone even coming close. Barring any injury, WD has already won that race IMO.

Coldfacts : You seem to use history to narrow down your picks and I'm surprised that you forgot one about your pick in the Classic. I just read Steve's article on GoD and mentioned O'brien has entered 13 horses since 2000, that's over a decade of trying to win the Classic. What makes you think this is the horse that will win it for him? Again, I'm surprised that you missed that (or ignored it.)

re: Haskin's Classic Report: Mucho Macho is Now The Man

It aint easy being good! — Mon, 28 Oct 2013 23:59:10 GMT

My take on the classic is two things. One make sure you bet on a jockey that knows the race track. I love me some Johnny V but he doesnt know the track like the big three do. Big three being RB,MS& JR. Second look for the stalker. I love ron the greek but he will need to run his eyeballs out to win this race! I think this might be a good time to bet a 3 year old. Typically they are overmatched but I think this is the year Palace Malice can do it! I see a repeat of last year with FL and MMM out front. I think this year GOD will be out front with them softening things up for the midpack stalker!

re: Haskin's Classic Report: Mucho Macho is Now The Man

mz — Mon, 28 Oct 2013 22:01:09 GMT

Am I terrible for being more interested in the Distaff this year than the Classic? Royal Delta vs. Princess of Sylmar, Round 2.

re: Haskin's Classic Report: Mucho Macho is Now The Man

edrake — Mon, 28 Oct 2013 20:04:55 GMT

Steve thank you. Some very good insight. I am one that believes in MMM and his handlers. They have brought him back this year to be peaking at the perfect time. I look for him to break well and with Gary Stevens urging win this one. Good luck MMM from your friends in Atlanta. By the way we need support for pari mutual wagering in Georgia so please support us.

re: Haskin's Classic Report: Mucho Macho is Now The Man

Coldfacts — Mon, 28 Oct 2013 19:53:30 GMT

depalma113,

Your are correct. The data based I used exclude some records for the Goodwood/Awesome Again.

Tiznow is therefore joined by Pleasantly Perfect and Ferdinand as winners of the Goodwood/Awesome Again as preps for the BCC.

On the subject of not having a G1 victory before the BCC, it was not a definitive statement as I specified it was a probability.

Valponi and Cat Thief did not have a G1 win either before or after to their respective BCC victories.

re: Haskin's Classic Report: Mucho Macho is Now The Man

Rusty Weisner — Mon, 28 Oct 2013 19:41:17 GMT

josh,

I think you're right. That's very insightful about the spacing of his races.

re: Haskin's Classic Report: Mucho Macho is Now The Man

lunar spook — Mon, 28 Oct 2013 19:30:29 GMT

For any horse players who put any stock in the dosage index (and I do)the classic is taylor made for DECLARATION OF WAR AMD PALACE MALICE. . . . . just saying

re: Haskin's Classic Report: Mucho Macho is Now The Man

PointGivenTCL — Mon, 28 Oct 2013 16:36:48 GMT

Definitely agree that Mucho Macho Man seems to be in the best form of his career, and his two races at Santa Anita are far beyond anything else he's ever produced. With Stevens on, he'll be very tough if he can get a good trip.

The biggest question to me for how the Classic will unfold is the pace scenario, specifically with respect to Game On Dude and Fort Larned. It's become clear that both of these horses, while ostensibly capable of rating, simply run better when they're on the lead, and it's also pretty clear from their comments in the past few months that both trainers know it. It's gonna be a matter of which one wants it more, and how quick of a pace they're willing to set to get it. I don't think it's inconceivable that we see a duel between these two resulting in a sub 46.3 half, which would likely be disastrous for both. If one backs off and lets the leader go above 47, though, it could be over from there. I'm guessing it will be Fort Larned in front - Game On Dude thus far seems to have shown a slightly better ability to rate. But Baffert might just tell Mike to send, with the memory of Bejarano's sluggish ride in last year's race in mind.

re: Haskin's Classic Report: Mucho Macho is Now The Man

steve from st louis — Mon, 28 Oct 2013 16:12:30 GMT

Steve, between Will Take Charge and MMM, which is bigger? Compare their action if you could. It appears to me that MMM may be bigger (17.2 hands?), while WTC has more of the skipping action of a turf runner. Which one wears the big boy pants?

re: Haskin's Classic Report: Mucho Macho is Now The Man

trackjack — Mon, 28 Oct 2013 14:56:22 GMT

Steve, thanks for the insightful article. Mucho Macho Man has been on my radar screen especially with the anticipated speed battle with Moreno, Graydar, Fort Larned and Game On Dude who lost all chance last year after being steadied at the start. Gary needs to keep him close, but not too close to that speed and be ready to pounce, as you so eloquently put it.

At the 2011 Kentucky Derby draw, I sat with some of MMM's ownership group and shared with them how his sire, Macho Uno, was letting everyone who could hear, who was the boss as they brought him over to the paddock for the Ohio Derby at Thistledown in his 3yo year. What a rogue character Macho Uno was that day.

foxhunter: Enjoy your first Breeders' Cup. Try to get to the paddock and see them up close.

CArole rio: Thanks for your insight on how horses sometimes deal with each other.

My wife thinks I'm coming down with some kind of ailment. I tell her it's just Breeders' Cup mania. Maybe Dr. D. has some wise words of treatment?

re: Haskin's Classic Report: Mucho Macho is Now The Man

depalma113 — Mon, 28 Oct 2013 14:53:31 GMT

Coldfacts time to do some fact checking.

Pleasantly Perfect won the Goodwood and did not have a Grade One victory, or even hit the board in a Grade One, prior to his Classic victory in 2003 at Santa Anita.

re: Haskin's Classic Report: Mucho Macho is Now The Man

Rusty Weisner — Mon, 28 Oct 2013 14:51:08 GMT

I'm with lunar spook and Coldfacts on MMM. The horse has just won a G1 and has never won at 10f. Another consideration: his great performance in last year's Classic came on a biased track in a race where Game on Dude didn't figure. Game on Dude's presence in the pace will presumably change the race. That's not to say I'm betting that one -- I'll probably chicken out of this race, take several horses, and look for a winner elsewhere.

I like Steve Haskins' insight into how the race might be run, by the way.