Haskin's Friday Longshots and Overlays

re: Haskin's Friday Longshots and Overlays

Linda in Texas — Sun, 03 Nov 2013 20:43:13 GMT

Where is Coldfacts? Cashing in his winnings. I am looking at his posts and i lost my place. Did he call a race? I need to go back and look. Just razzing you Coldfacts. I don't bet so i can go back and see who did win and didn't.

You are too honest JayJay. You weren't too far off on betting WTC. And The Mizdirection win along with MMM and Groupie Doll were exciting races.

And on another somber note, again.

Prayers and Speedy recovery are sent to Johnny V and family. And to Secret Compass's connections,the filly was Whiteley Bred and Baffert trained. So sorry for her loss as there were high hopes riding with her as she was developing into a really nice race filly with her previous wins. Watched her load the gate, go to the front and then disappear. I don't handle those things well. Sorry.

Another breakdown as Pedigree Ann referred to. And what do they do to better a track like they reportedly did between Friday's races and Saturday's? Isn't that an unfair disadvantage to those who ran on the track the previous day?

And last but not least, Harlan's Holiday. Had winners at the Breeder's Cup races, Zeewat was one. HH has sired winners of 1,069 races with purses totaling $35 million and that number was not an up to date figure. Rest in Peace Harlan's Holiday. Gone way too soon with so much promise.

Thank you Steve. Speaking of a Stellar Job, we all send our thanks and appreciation along your way.

You bring more color to a subject than anyone i follow and respect in the horse racing world. And i know i am not alone in saying that.

Linda

re: Haskin's Friday Longshots and Overlays

JayJay — Sun, 03 Nov 2013 06:48:49 GMT

It was like Zenyatta all over again, I refused to listen to Mr. Haskin about MMM being tough when he gets the lead at the 1/8th pole and Steve was dead on. I singled WTC in my P4, actually singled WD as well, had two tickets to WTC and ... well... it was very painful.

I said it before, WTC is an improving horse and I was very happy with his run because he proved he was the best 3 yr old. I'm glad for his connections for winning the 3 yr old championship. I'm hoping they run him again next year and I hope they keep him here and not even try Dubai.

How about that Mizdirection... 7 for 7 at SA, that was an amazing run.

re: Haskin's Friday Longshots and Overlays

Linda in Texas — Sat, 02 Nov 2013 16:42:41 GMT

Goldencents wire to wire from the outside yet! He was in his glory and he knew it. He took what was given to him and ran away with it.

I dare say perseverance prevailed!

Best win for me was Outstrip with an amazing turn of foot to catch and conquer in The Juvenile Turf for his win. A Grey you know, my favorite.

Please connections, i don't want to watch Royal Delta lose anymore.

She is a proud winner and i think she is sending messages that are not being heard. I want to remember her as the BC winner she is.

Centralinteligence vanned off. Horses being scratched due to quarter cracks and bruised feet.

Is that what you are referring to Pedigree Ann in your comment about the disgraceful condition of the main track? I have never been to Santa Anita so i am clueless.

Interesting fact, El Prado is in the bloodlines of Bobby's Kitten and Outstrip who both raced in The Juvenile Turf: El Prado was the sire of Asi Siempre Dam of Outstrip and he was also the Sire of Kitten's Joy, sire of Bobby's Kitten.

And to Points Offthebench, your main competitor won his race, know that you are in Goldencent's owner's thoughts as well as many of us, a most honorable and respectful salute was paid to you. RIP

re: Haskin's Friday Longshots and Overlays

Old Timer — Sat, 02 Nov 2013 14:42:39 GMT

nice job! The place on Golden Ticket and the show on Col. Joan were nice. Plus London Bridge at 9-1. Great picking.

re: Haskin's Friday Longshots and Overlays

JayJay — Sat, 02 Nov 2013 06:04:10 GMT

tcc : Sounds like it's crow time...if Verrazano could run in the Distaff, he would've finished last, glad he stayed in the mile. I'm sure Rana will now say that Verrazano should've run in the Classic, as he would demolish that field, that will be his out lol.

I'm glad I didn't play much today. None of my picks were even close...although Testa Rossi should've won her race, can't blame the jockey for trying to go to the rail but just unlucky that it closed up in the stretch. Not sure what happed with Clenor, I was expecting much much better run than that.

re: Haskin's Friday Longshots and Overlays

Greg R — Sat, 02 Nov 2013 04:56:20 GMT

Writing after the fact, I see I shouldn't have been spooked by Goldencents' outside draw. Don't know what Rafael would have done if the horse had not broken a step ahead, but since Goldencents broke like a shot, Rafael was able to look over and see that he could probably clear, if he hustled. On another track, the early move might have cost them, but on this airport runway, it helped more than hurt. Anyway, as I had thought, the two-turn mile at SA proved squarely within his wheelhouse.

re: Haskin's Friday Longshots and Overlays

tcc — Fri, 01 Nov 2013 22:19:27 GMT

Maybe we all should buy THE LOCKS tout sheet.

re: Haskin's Friday Longshots and Overlays

tcc — Fri, 01 Nov 2013 22:14:40 GMT

THE LOCK #10 Verrazano finishes 4TH.

re: Haskin's Friday Longshots and Overlays

mz — Fri, 01 Nov 2013 20:58:17 GMT

Before I forget, good luck to Bon Accord in the Juv Turf

If not a Euro, how abt a long shot?

re: Haskin's Friday Longshots and Overlays

mz — Fri, 01 Nov 2013 19:54:17 GMT

Princess of Sylmar

My Conquestadory (if she can overcome post 14) - otherwise, Vorda

Bruno de Olleros

Giovanni Boldini or Outstrip

The grand old Pool Play

Tomorrow:

Moreno

No Jet Lag to upset

Private Zone

The Fugue (my girl) over Big Blue Kitten

We Miss Artie's

Misdirection and Reneesgotzip

Judy the Beauty

Sentimental: Marketing Mix. Probable: Laughing or Dank

Concave

Good luck to all. Safe trips to all

(Looks like long shots are live at Santa Anita today)

re: Haskin's Friday Longshots and Overlays

tcc — Fri, 01 Nov 2013 19:29:37 GMT

Dirt mile's last 3 winners have paid 33.60 Tapizar, 15.60 Caleb's Posse, 77.40 Dakota Phone. Good race for mid to pretty decent win payoffs.

re: Haskin's Friday Longshots and Overlays

Greg R — Fri, 01 Nov 2013 18:14:21 GMT

I thought the two-turn mile would be perfect for Goldencents, but his post is somewhere in the grandstand and he'll have too rough a trip from there. If Verrazano is feeling his oats, he'll be tough to beat.

re: Haskin's Friday Longshots and Overlays

Slew — Fri, 01 Nov 2013 17:31:47 GMT

Ohhhhh...I've been in the desert of no televised racing and am desperately in need of the oasis of the BC.

I've tried watching racing on my slooow computer exacerbated by DSL. Ach! Staccato races..run...stop...run...stop..it's difficult to enjoy a beautiful stride when you can't see one.

O, but I want Royal Delta to win, but the competition is keen. Love Beholder, but I won't argue with anyone who favors the Princess or Close Hatches.

In the dirt mile, have always loved Pants On Fire but don't think he's been in form. Alpha's great but I think Verrazano can handle this distance..easily. Of course, I like Hymn Book...but...Brujo de Olleros may be rounding into form now.

Juv Fillies-turf mile...Tapit...Dancing House with Mike Smith up.

Cease in the Marathon.

Oh heck....love 'em all...too hard to make a choice. And I'm still upset that my Greek is out of the Classic.

re: Haskin's Friday Longshots and Overlays

Pedigree Ann — Fri, 01 Nov 2013 17:24:53 GMT

Close Hatches was getting 5 lbs from the Princess in the Gazelle - at level weights in the Kentucky Oaks, the Princess beat her by 10. I know people these days discount weight differences, but it the basis of our entire racing model - weight for age is supposed to allow 3yos to compete without a disadvantage against stronger, more mature elders. If weight means nothing, why not run all races at level weights?

re: Haskin's Friday Longshots and Overlays

trackjack — Fri, 01 Nov 2013 15:48:01 GMT

Steve: Thanks for this analysis and your pics, great shots. I agree; "crap shoot, forget it."

Tough handicapping, you can't pick 'em all.

Marathon: Win: London Bridge.

Ex.Box: London Bridge, Ever Rider, Old Time Hockey,

Juv. Turf: Win Bobby's Kitten.

Ex box: Bobby's Kitten, Outstrip, Giovanni Boldini.

Dirt Mile: Win: Brujo de Olleros

Juv. Filly Turf: Tri Box: Vorda, Al Thakhira, Chriselliam, Testa Rossi. Win: Vorda

Distaff: Win: Princess of Sylmar.

Dr. D.: Thanks for the advice.

Good Luck to all!

re: Haskin's Friday Longshots and Overlays

Tiz Herself — Fri, 01 Nov 2013 14:47:22 GMT

Sorry that was 12-1 on Emollient, Lady of Shamrock was the one at 20-1- she could be a threat, too.

re: Haskin's Friday Longshots and Overlays

Tiz Herself — Fri, 01 Nov 2013 14:45:34 GMT

It's too bad Celburne is out - hope he recovers good for the big races next year.

Agree with you Steve, think ignoring Close Hatches (or any of the horses carrying Juddmonte colors) is dangerous. Emollient is at 20-1...

Skyring could be another upset too - son of English Channel - Violet Lady, by Seattle Slew who won the Turf, too... Skyring has already pulled an upset last year on Preakness Day winning the James W Murphy Stakes at 24-1. He won the G2 Dixie Stakes at Pimlico this year, too. He may be outclassed here, but I don't know that would let a D Wayne Lukas horse go at 30-1. Plus with Calumet on the comeback, it would be a great story.

The Calumet- Lukas team has another really well bred colt named All Cash in the Juvenile Fillies Turf. Also a son of English Channel out of the mare Andover the Money, by Dynaformer - a real nice grass pedigree. Also 30-1. This team proved they can pull upset with Juvenile, having won the Juvenile Sprint (know probably read it somewhere, but did this race get axed? don't see it amongst the races for this weekend) last year with Hightail.

Would be sentimental to see Broadway Empire do well in the Dirt Mile. It is none too often that we see horses pass through Alberta (my own backyard) and then turn around and end up in a Breeders Cup race. There was no doubt that he was going to win the Canadian Derby and he did so... although he has a tall task ahead of him facing the likes of Verrazano, Hymn Book, Golden Ticket, Goldencents, Brujo, Alpha, etc. A son of Empire Maker - Broadway Hoofer, by Belong to Me, he did defeat Departing in his last race, winning the Oklahoma Derby.

re: Haskin's Friday Longshots and Overlays

Rusty Weisner — Fri, 01 Nov 2013 14:18:03 GMT

Ranagulzion,

I would take Coldfacts' advice on Verrazano. He's sounding very convincing to me on several races this BC, with much more solid handicapping instead of the usual crankish pedigree stuff.

You didn't listen to us last time and it cost you.

re: Haskin's Friday Longshots and Overlays

JayJay — Fri, 01 Nov 2013 14:08:55 GMT

I don't get how a horse can be a surprise if another horse is a lock...

re: Haskin's Friday Longshots and Overlays

Coldfacts — Fri, 01 Nov 2013 13:03:36 GMT

DIRT MILE: I am intrigued my Holy Lute and believe he is a very solid longshot.

His sire is the two times Breeder Cup Sprint winner and his dam was sired by the great Holy Bull.

The way he covers ground is beauty to see. He has tactical speed and is very resolute in the last two furlongs of his races.

He was produced by a lightly raced well bred mare and that’s all I need to know.

His connections are probably the only ones that know how good this colt is. It is therefore not surprising that they have chosen this tough spot for colt who broke his maiden in August 2013.

Based on his almost perfect conformation and the effortless manner in which his energy efficient strides cover ground, I have no option but to include him in my exotic wagers.

NB: If his price is worth the risk I will be making a W/P wager.

re: Haskin's Friday Longshots and Overlays

Coldfacts — Fri, 01 Nov 2013 12:28:54 GMT

Ranagulzion,

"Verrazano is a lock but Fed Biz could surprise."

Mr. Haskin has certainly made your day with his Verrazano statement.

On the few occasions on which he has been eye to eye with top class horses he has not done well.

Who is he going to track and run by? What time are you expecting him to run?

Brojo De Olleros - 1:33.27, Pants On Fire - 1:33.78, Golden Ticket - 1:34.56 and Fed Biz 1:34.74 have run faster miles than Verrazano.

How could he be a lock in the most competitive field of milers he will be facing.

You are clearly going to stick with this colt to the end. Happily this will be his final race before he is retired to stud to spare further damage to his wonder horse status.

I hope he only resides in your fantasy stable and real money will not be wager on him as he does not inspire confidence.

re: Haskin's Friday Longshots and Overlays

josh — Fri, 01 Nov 2013 12:07:30 GMT

Steve,

As always, great analysis, secret sailing is very intriguing horse.

FuPeg1, Brujo de Olleros on everyone's watch list.

The main track at SA, which I am very familiar with, is playing what I would consider "normal" about most speed horses are winning (Horses on or near, about 2 lengths of the lead, at the 1/2 mile pole). SA has been known to be very difficult for closers to win. I have experienced this many times, because I ripped so many tickets at SA. Just looking at yesterday’s results, 6 dirt races, and 5 won by horses on or near the lead. On Oct. 27th results, 5/5 on dirt to speed horses. Granted, this is a small sample, but speed is king at SA, don't let anyone fool you!

That being said, here are my Friday's picks:

Marathon: Worldy, Old Time Hockey, Indian Jones.

Juvenile Turf: Giovanni Boldini, Outstrip, Bobby's Kitten, Wilshire Boulevard.

Dirt Mile: Verrazano, Brujo de Olleros, Pants on Fire, Goldencents

Juvenile Fillies Turf: Al Thakhira, Vorda, Testa Rossi, Chriselliam.

Distaff: Royal Delta, Princess of Sylmar, Authenticity.

My win bet will be on Royal Delta, but I'll be rooting for Princess of Sylmar.

Good luck to all!

re: Haskin's Friday Longshots and Overlays

Coldfacts — Fri, 01 Nov 2013 04:09:41 GMT

“If Verrazano shows up with his “A” game, he is going to take a ton of beating.”

The following Horses have finished second to Verrazano:-

Acclaim, Eton Blue, Java’s War, Normandy Invasion, Reporting Star and Power Broker.

The best horse he finished ahead of were injured during the race i.e., Oxbow and Itsmyluckyday

I contend Verrazano’s ‘A’ Game will not be enough but the bundle that will be expended on him will be.

Alpha recorded splits of 1:10 for 6F and 1:35 for 8F at Big Sandy. He has never recorded those splits in any previous race.

He was up with the leader in the 2012 BCC for 5F so he has shown speed on the SA strip when he did not have any.

He is reported to be significantly better this year. The cut back will certainly help his chances.

re: Haskin's Friday Longshots and Overlays

JayJay — Fri, 01 Nov 2013 02:18:04 GMT

I thought the track played fair today, I'll be happy if the track stayed this way throughout the weekend.

Steve : your thoughts on how the track was today ? Also, thanks for all the insights, stories leading up to this weekend. Have always and continues to enjoy your blogs.

re: Haskin's Friday Longshots and Overlays

JayJay — Fri, 01 Nov 2013 01:40:42 GMT

F&M Sprint : Going to single Teddy's Promise to beat Groupie Doll, adding Book Review and Dance To Bristol for my tri and super.

F&M Turf : Dank should be the easy winner but I'll play Tiz Flirtatious and Emollient for the tri and adding Quschi, Lady of Shamrock and Marketing Mix for the super.

Juvenile Fillies : I still believe this is a two horse race between Secret Compass and She's A Tiger. I think this might be Steven's first win of the BC weekend.

Juvenile Fillies Turf : Testa Rossi and Clenor on top with Kitten Kaboodle, Chriselliam and Street Sailing(Thanks Steve!) for the tri and super.

Dirt Mile : Going with Fed Biz and Pants On Fire. I'm not too thrilled about Verrazano here, but now that Grayday is out, I'll probably play him on the bottom of my exotics. I also like Hymn Book here with Castellano on board.