Haskin's Saturday Longshots and Overlays

re: Haskin's Saturday Longshots and Overlays

JayJay — Wed, 06 Nov 2013 07:32:48 GMT

Dr. D : Thanks, I'm glad he didn't disappoint me in the Classic. I may have lost my bet but watching him run was pretty exciting. At the top of the stretch I watched him make his move and for some reason I lost track of him and thought he got blocked again and had to stop, it wasn't until MMM and DoW was clear of the field that I saw a horse coming hard on the outside. I didn't know it was him until right at the wire when I thought he nipped him. I yelled so loud " 10! 10 got it !!", everyone looked at me because they were all yelling the 5 or the 6... I raised my fist in the air thinking he really got him... then I saw the replay and realized it was another zenyatta moment. It took me some time to get over the lost bet but yeah, it was nice to see him make that run like a professional, believe it or not, it was exactly the run I was expecting to see from him, way outside rolling like a freight train. I was also very impressed at Secret Circle, another horse I really liked, and was my pick to win the KY Derby before he got injured. Coming back from over a year layoff to win an allowance race in 1:07, then running down that field was very impressive.

Testa Rossi should've won the Juvenile Turf, I can't blame Lezcano for trying to stick to the rail, it was unfortunate it closed before he could sneak through, had to steady then go wide to make their run. She'll be a force to be reckoned with next year.

My other heartbreaking loss was the DQ of She's A Tiger, I had her and Secret Compass (very sick about what happened to her). I had the P4 won if She's a Tiger wasn't DQ'd.

I may have lost my BC bets but I'm happy that some of my picks actually showed up, had a fun time watching all the races. I'm actually starting to get the bug, derby bug ;) I'm going to start looking at the 2 yr olds and see if I can spot next years KY Derby winner (Keelerman got me started with picking horses to follow throughout the TC crown.)

Hope things are going well with you (and the family) and glad to see you back here, you were awol for a bit.

re: Haskin's Saturday Longshots and Overlays

El Kabong — Mon, 04 Nov 2013 17:40:16 GMT

Anyone planning on wagering the Melbourne Cup? I have been looking it over and like Fawkner and Voleuse De Coeurs for the win. I'm planning right now on padding them with Mount Athos, Seville, Brown Panther, Green Moon, Sea Moon, Masked Marvell and Fiorente underneath. It's a 144 dollar tri I hope returns a bundle. Good luck to any others going for the cash down under. Gooday to all the punters wagering down under!

re: Haskin's Saturday Longshots and Overlays

El Kabong — Mon, 04 Nov 2013 17:08:34 GMT

Ok, We all like to share handicapping opinions here but I would like to share a betting strategy that worked. On a budget, I like to play $24 four horse tri boxes for the BC because trifectas pay so well, but after seeing my horses run 1,2,4 more than once on Friday, and similar to that right off the bat on Saturday, I made an adjustment I hoped would reverse my trend. To keep it a $24 dollar ticket, I took the best two of my 4 in the Filly and Mare sprint, Groupie Doll and Dance to Bristol and keyed them first. Put the full group of 4 in my tri box second and 4th(Groupie, Bristol, Judy, Summer Applause). Then keyed third the two horses everyone else said would ruin my trifecta, Steve's Dance Card and Sweet Lulu for a $24 dollar super to back my tri. Don't get mad get even. It worked. My tri box was spoiled by Dance Card but my super saver made me forget all about it. If you suffer from 1,2,4 in your trifectas, try this. I laughed all the way to the IRS window. I'll use it going forward when I can. Betting and Handicapping are two different arenas and you have to make adjustments on the fly. This one worked for me.

re: Haskin's Saturday Longshots and Overlays

JayJay — Mon, 04 Nov 2013 06:54:45 GMT

Coldfacts : Not sure why you directed the Princess of Sylmar to me but the answer is no. I commented on your previous post awhile back where you posted and compared the races of Closed Hatches and Beholder and I said you made a good point. I said that Princess of Sylmar's connections have no choice but to run in the Distaff and beat the other two to win the championship.

The quote you posted was from our discussion regarding Game On Dude's chances at HOTY should he win. I think you got yourself confused with the two discussions.

re: Haskin's Saturday Longshots and Overlays

steve from st louis — Mon, 04 Nov 2013 01:43:47 GMT

PS: Steve you were front and center on national TV standing next to Ritvo. That's what I expect from the most connected journalist in the sport.

re: Haskin's Saturday Longshots and Overlays

steve from st louis — Mon, 04 Nov 2013 01:41:52 GMT

I was waiting all week for Trevor to give his Zenyatta call on Will Take Charge... ("this...is..unbelievable!") then I find out Larry Colmus was calling it for NBC. I think his call cost Will Take Charge the race. I'm still trying to cash my ticket but the machine won't comply.

re: Haskin's Saturday Longshots and Overlays

ksweatman9 — Mon, 04 Nov 2013 00:50:19 GMT

I understand why the Breeders Cup may be viewed as the most defining of championship races. However, I still say the Kentucky Derby is the most prestigious race in America, and the most popular. The derby is every trainers dream, period. The derby winners are never far from our memory, unlike the Preakness, the Belmont and the Breeders Cup, those who win the roses are an elite group of equine heroes. Even the ponies who never go on to do much more than win the Kentucky derby are remembered for what they did the first Saturday in May. Oh yes, open mouth, insert foot. Wise Dan just may have a chance to win back to back Horse of the Year honors. Princess of Sylmar***well, who knew? Way to go, Wise Dan. You deserve the honors.

re: Haskin's Saturday Longshots and Overlays

Pamela Morgan — Mon, 04 Nov 2013 00:03:35 GMT

I'm just disgusted. We get to listen to idiots interviewing celebrities spouting inanities while a lovely filly full of promise lies dead. I know they don't want alienate viewers of "the game," but viewers need to know the fragility of all horses. (After all, two famous stallions, Danehill and Saint Liam died while being held on lead lines.)Viewers also need to know the great love that the caretakers of these horses have for them. Show some respect for the horses and the people that love them!!!! Put up a photo of Secret Compass and Points Offthebench,too. These horses deserve respect. I HATED the Classic coverage.

re: Haskin's Saturday Longshots and Overlays

Pamela Morgan — Mon, 04 Nov 2013 00:03:35 GMT

re: Haskin's Saturday Longshots and Overlays

Dr Drunkinbum — Sun, 03 Nov 2013 23:41:07 GMT

jayjay

You do have an eye for talent. I remember that many, many, many, many moons ago you were touting the talent of Will Take Charge, and you always stuck with him, never wavering in your good judgement. It was after you first touted him but Bethany did also before he started really being noticed as one of the top three year olds. Well he is the top 3yo now and beyond that, one of the top horses in the country. I sure hope he races next year when he will really start maturing and dominating. Superstar potential.

re: Haskin's Saturday Longshots and Overlays

Davids — Sun, 03 Nov 2013 22:27:06 GMT

Steve, you were spot on with Declaration of War and Aidan O’Brien is an even better trainer than what has been written. Moreover, Claiborne's sire War Front appears to be stamping his mark as did his progenitors Danzig, Northern Dancer. Time will tell.

As Dr Drunkinbum wrote, after Friday's fiasco regarding the track's speed bias I thought an alternate site needs to be found but congratulations to the Santa Anita management for correcting the error overnight.

However, I wouldn't have Santa Anita as a permanent site - familiarity breeds contempt. Besides, when is Belmont Park going to be given the opportunity to 'show-off'?

There were many highs but alas, tragedy struck which was a reminder on how quickly joy and can turn to horror in this sport. Hopefully, Johnny V. makes a speedy recovery.

On to the Derby, I still think Honor Code is showing the most promise at this early stage. How befitting a Kentucky Derby winner would be for his great sire- A. P. Indy.

re: Haskin's Saturday Longshots and Overlays

Ranagulzion — Sun, 03 Nov 2013 21:32:23 GMT

Coldfacts 02 Nov 2013 7:35 AM

What a great day of top class throughbred racing on Saturday?

Beholder was brilliant in the Distaff but you are a body-of-work guy and should have no difficulty with seeing that Princess of Sylmar still deserves the Eclipse award for best 3YO filly of 2013. Her participation in the Distaff was a great sporting gesture against good strategic judgment by the connections that should not be penalized. The track had a speed bias, the winner, Beholder, had home-field advantage and POS has apparently trained off (the only explanation for a dull performance from a filly that gives of her best every time).

Mucho Macho Man was simply awesome in victory in the BC Classic over three gallant performers Will Take Charge, Declaration of War and last years winner, Fort Larned (who, as I predicted, made HOTY pretender Game on Dude 'spit his bit'). Having seen MMM and FL feature in two of the most exciting BC Classics in back to back years, you should now forget about Alysheba and go eat some crow(LOL)

I'm thrilled to say that we'll be referring to Wise Dan next year as the two-time HOTY ...wow, what a champion!!! His loss in the Shadwll Mile to Silver Max showed that his campaign was not an easy one. This horse won at various tracks all over the country and displayed the heart of a champion even in defeat at Keenland. To come back and redeem himself like he did in the BC Mile with such authority makes him a sho-in for two-time Horse of the Year, don't you think? What a peach of a ride jockey Lezcano gave him? I might also highlight Rajiv Maragh on board Groupie Doll. These two jocks deserve to ride more mounts in these big meets, with all due respect to the old guard, Gary Stevens and Mike Smith.

Here's wishing one of my favourite jocks, Johnny Velasquez a speedy recovery.

I'm going into semi-retirement from the blog but want to spot my Kentucky Derby winner from now. It will be Orb's Trainer Shug McGuehey in back to back derby wins and AP Indy's first, coming from his last crop, Honor Code !!!

See you in the Spring buddy

re: Haskin's Saturday Longshots and Overlays

Paula Higgins — Sun, 03 Nov 2013 21:17:42 GMT

First, my sincere sympathies to the connections of Secret Compass. Another heartbreaking loss that continues to plague this sport. I hope Johnny Velazquez is on the mend after his surgery. I truly hate this part of the sport. I don't believe in this case there was any way to save her.

I watched most of it on NBC Sports and it was quite a Breeders Cup in all other respects. I felt terrible for Bob Baffert, but at least he came away with 2 other wins. It was very much an up and down day for him.

I was thrilled to see Mucho Macho Man, Kathy Ritvo and Gary Stevens win the BCC. Not a more deserving horse, trainer and jockey there. It was very touching to see her there with her family when she realized she had won. Steve, I saw you there with Kathy and I think a tape recorder? trying to catch the moment. Mucho Macho Man did what he does best and that is never stop trying. He hung on long enough to win by a nostril, but it was enough in the end. I felt a little bad for Lukas, but only a little. He has next year and his horse is pretty impressive. Game on Dude was over matched at that distance. I do not believe he will ever win the classic. Just a bit too far for him against top class competition. Mike Smith did a great job, but it wasn't going to happen.

To me, the Breeders Cup Classic trumps every other race, including the Kentucky Derby. You are up against the best who have made it through to the end of the season. The sturdy battlers, 3 year olds and up, who have what it takes to go the classic distance. It doesn't get better than that.

Wise Dan was my other favorite moment. I never lost faith in him and I felt that he would win the mile. He did, in great fashion. IMO he is HOTY again. There is no other horse that you can put up there with him this season. GoD did well during the year but when the competition stepped up, he couldn't get there. So then you have the girls, Beholder ended that discussion. Last and certainly not least, is Mucho Macho Man. He is the only one you can put in the discussion, but he does not have Wise Dan's track record. So it goes to Wise Dan :).

re: Haskin's Saturday Longshots and Overlays

Paula Higgins — Sun, 03 Nov 2013 20:56:58 GMT

First, my condolences to the connections of Secret Compass. It was another heartbreaking loss of a filly. I hope Johnny Velazquez is doing much better after his splenectomy.

re: Haskin's Saturday Longshots and Overlays

Smoking Baby — Sun, 03 Nov 2013 20:32:16 GMT

Actually, I'm happy for the first three finishers in the Classic. What a race by all three. The connections of both Will Take Charge and Declaration Of War should hold their heads high.

re: Haskin's Saturday Longshots and Overlays

Smoking Baby — Sun, 03 Nov 2013 20:29:54 GMT

Old Timer. I agree. Regardless of who you bet on or who you were hoping to win the Classic, if you weren't happy for the winning team, something's off and I'm not sure what I can do for you.

re: Haskin's Saturday Longshots and Overlays

Bethany Loftis — Sun, 03 Nov 2013 20:19:46 GMT

Congratulations to Mucho Macho Man and his connections!!! I was holding back tears when he crossed the wire, but then seeing Ritvo move people aside to run towards Gary and Macho made me blubber. Very few people are more deserving of this than her, her family, and his connections for their support. They truly were made for each other! What a great script too?! Hint hint Hollywood...just don't mess it up :)

re: Haskin's Saturday Longshots and Overlays

Dr Drunkinbum — Sun, 03 Nov 2013 19:42:19 GMT

I don't think there is a better trainer than Charlie LoPresti, or a better owner than Mort Fink, or a better horse than Wise Dan. Rechecking his record confirms my instinct that he is HOY again. He had two wins on a yielding turf course, one at 9f, and a win on a good turf course. He has top notch speed figures and was 6 for 7 with the one second being on an "off track" albeit a synthetic, it was full of puddles. Nobody is more of a warrior. It's great that he is coming back next year with zero handicap races to weigh him down, and with fewer races overall. Personally I would go for the threepeat and hope that Europe send its strongest milers to try to dethrone The King. Enjoy your time off Wise Dan and thanks for the thrills and inspiration. I have to also congratulate the other repeat winners and especially loved Groupie Doll's win with her doubters. The Comeback Kid award goes to Secret Circle. Way to go. Caracortado's scratch was a disappointment. Was it his foot again? Paynter is also to be congratulated again for his victory in running in the Classic for that was an example of extreme courage and determination just to get there. He didn't do as well as I had hoped but he did better than Game On Dude who just wasn't ready for a top effort yesterday. Ron the Greek would have made it even more interesting, and might have blown by them all or at least been in the mix of what could have been nearly a four way photo. I love having all of these older horses running so well this year throughout the year.

re: Haskin's Saturday Longshots and Overlays

Old Timer — Sun, 03 Nov 2013 13:20:02 GMT

That post race interview with Kathy Ritvo and family was the most touching moment since Carl Nafzger hugging Mrs. Genter! Who cannot feel happy for this horse and his connections.?

re: Haskin's Saturday Longshots and Overlays

Dr Drunkinbum — Sun, 03 Nov 2013 12:49:05 GMT

I am assuming they did something at SA for and on Saturday to make it a fair track. Friday seemed to be speed biased and Saturday seemed to be just right for a fair track. Whatever they did for and on Saturday is what they always should strive for, especially if they want to continue to hold the BC, or for anytime for that matter. After Friday I was definitely ready to alternate sites. After Saturday you could make a case for it being a permanent sight or close to it. It doesn't quite seem fair that it would never be in the east but there is a weather concern with the east. I still would like to see it alternate between the east and west if they can just do something about the weather issue !!!! Which appears to be getting worse.

re: Haskin's Saturday Longshots and Overlays

Dr Drunkinbum — Sun, 03 Nov 2013 11:23:23 GMT

I'm happy for Mucho Macho Man, Kathy Ritvo, and Gary Stevens. They are were all masterful and all deserved it. It was a high quality Classic and only very talented horse and rider in peak condition was going to win it.

Will Take Charge is clearly 3yo of the year and the horse to beat next year. Ultra talented. Good job Lukas and Will Take Charge, a nostril hair from the championship.

I don't know what their plans are for Game On Dude for next year but here's what I would do. I'd give him back to Chantal. He raced very good for her. I'd point toward a peak performance for the Classic making it the 4th or 5th race after a layoff. Give the old man a break and try one more time. Even at that age if healthy he will be capable. Even though I thought he might win this year, I didn't think he would. I didn't think the break would help him, only diminish his chances of maintaining the peak conditioning needed for this race. Spectacular race, as were many of them this year. Just off the top of my head I think that Wise Dan is once again HOY but I'd give it more thought first before a final decision. A lot of tough losses, the worst being the recent deaths, then the loss of stallions to overseas. I'd pin a blue tail on the human that sold Hansen to Korea and trade him for the horse. Be careful eating the kimchee Hansen.

re: Haskin's Saturday Longshots and Overlays

El Kabong — Sun, 03 Nov 2013 03:42:34 GMT

Stand by the bias on Friday but today was perfect. Hats off to Ritvo and Stevens. That was a helluva race and a picture perfect ending to a great day of racing. Can't wait for next year and I am planning on returning to the Great Race Place for sure. Hope JV is doing well.

re: Haskin's Saturday Longshots and Overlays

Dee — Sun, 03 Nov 2013 02:07:23 GMT

what a great day of racing, and a tough day of close calls with handicapping. had 7-9-10 in the turf, and the 11 showed up instead. liked the 4 in the juvenile, and the 5, but the 5 could do no better than forth. liked the top three finishers in the classic, but had them in combos with dude, and 2 out of 3 and also 3 out of 4 count for nothin. really liked artemis agrotera, who was cut off in the stretch to maybe miss for 4th.. but what a horrible tragedy for secret compass and johnny v. liked secret circle in the sprint, but only bet him in trifectas where the other two fell through. hope everyone else did well!

re: Haskin's Saturday Longshots and Overlays

Dee — Sun, 03 Nov 2013 02:01:37 GMT

Oh.. so... close... almost had the superfecta, except dude throws in the towel when it counts the most. 5,6,9,10 super box. Had some trifectas with those horses but all were with dude. went against my own rule of betting the favorite. should have done a 5,6,10, all. or more trifectas without dude. live and learn. most importantly, a classic for the ages- what a run. I love will take charge, so glad to see him stamp himself as top 3 year old. and I thought declaration was a red hot dark horse. mucho looked fantastic before and after. what a horse race.

amazing races- heart goes out to all of secret compass's connections, johnny v especially. poor filly. but the mares, and the repeats, what a performance by groupie doll, mizdirection, wise dan, and secret circle coming back at 3 to win another breeders cup race.

re: Haskin's Saturday Longshots and Overlays

Greg R — Sun, 03 Nov 2013 01:50:18 GMT

Well, once in awhile I hit the nail on the head. This morning (my time), I guessed four of this afternoon's winners.

> I knew Groupie Doll was coming

around just in time to act

like her old self.

> Secret Circle seemed like

the real deal to me, while

it hasn't been a banner year

for sprinters in the East

and California lost its

best sprinter last week.

> Wise Dan - Not a genius pick

but some were trying to over-

think it. Thank goodness team

didn't try to veer from the

right path with his campaign.

> I couldn't be more delighted

for Mucho M M's victory,

for the connections, etc.,

but considering Will Take

Charge's trip, he might have

run the best, covering extra

lengths of ground.

Condolences to connections of poor Secret Compass and best wishes to John Velasquez. Hardest job in racing: Wife of a jockey.