Thanksgiving at the Kentucky Derby

re: Thanksgiving at the Kentucky Derby

joepo — Sun, 24 Nov 2013 12:49:34 GMT

Steve - Very impressive Win by Tamarando in the Real Quiet Stakes. The Cash Call Futurity is up for him next. Nice to see he has a quality jockey, R. Bejarano in the reigns. This horse could be a big time under the radar horse in the FP1 pool which I will bet on Thanksgiving Day. I would hope to get 40-1 on him. The jockeys that have ridden on Tamarando and the Trainer believe the longer the better. Which is music to my ears for a Derby contender. The Cash Call is coming up tough with Bond Holder, NY Day, Shared Belief. But off of only 3 wks. rest, with the others well rested, if Tamarando can close strong and finish in the mix, then he looks like my longshot pick at this point to win the Kentucky Derby. I will also be looking strongly at Strong Mandate for FP1, he has a strong pedigree, raced from a wide post in the Juvenile to finish a game 3rd. I would like to get 25-1 on Strong Mandate. I will be boxing Tamarando with the Field, and possibly doing the same with Strong Mandate, if i can get good odds on him. I hope you give a shout back to me Steve on Tamarando, your opinion is important to me. Thanks.

re: Thanksgiving at the Kentucky Derby

lunar spook — Thu, 21 Nov 2013 15:25:04 GMT

TIZ HERSELF- I had never paid much attention to BELLAMY ROAD till I just now looked at some pics , very impressive !! COLDFACTS- IM always scouting early derby contenders as I like to bet the early wagering when u can get great odds, somehow I missed AMIS HOLIDAY , but the more I study the more I like , THANX !!!

re: Thanksgiving at the Kentucky Derby

Coldfacts — Thu, 21 Nov 2013 14:39:37 GMT

It is interesting that the two Wesley ward colts Green Mask and Pablo Del Monte did not make the above cut. While I understand their respective stakes debuts are pending, their MSW victories were sensational.

Green Mask – (Mizzen Mast by Bonsia Beauty – Forestry)

This colt is by an unraced mare won his MSW debut in 1:09 plus without leaving first gear. When an unraced mare produces a colt with this type of ability, chances are it could be either another Curlin or Invasor.

Pablo Del Monte – ( Giants Causeway by One Hot Dish – Bring The Heat)

This colt is by a lightly raced mare won his debut and subsequently allowance race in excellent times without leaving first gear. When Giants Causeway sired a talented chestnut with this type of ability, chances are it could be another First Samurai or Eskendereya.

The big question is - will they be able to make the transition synthetic to dirt? The surface at CD is known to favor turf/synthetic types.

I assume there will be a wagering option listed as ‘Other’ and it will certainly get my money as the above two colts are exceptional.

re: Thanksgiving at the Kentucky Derby

Coldfacts — Thu, 21 Nov 2013 11:42:56 GMT

Ami's Holiday has the pedigree and running style of e serious Derby contender. In fact, he looks more impressive than most comprising the above list

re: Thanksgiving at the Kentucky Derby

Tiz Herself — Thu, 21 Nov 2013 02:26:31 GMT

He was something - I even have a hat with his name on it (on the side it says Size Does Matter lol.... I thought it was funny) I'm 5 foot 10 or so and the top of my head still didn't reach RHT's withers... it always amazes me how a horse like that can fit in the teeny starting gates. I can only imagine what it's like to see Zenyatta up close as I believe she is slightly taller than RHT yet...

Another horse who was impressive when I saw him in person was Bellamy Road whom I believe was also close to the 17 hand or is there... he was something, too.

And then there was Tiznow whom I believe is around the 17 h mark too....

they were all amazing.

re: Thanksgiving at the Kentucky Derby

lunar spook — Wed, 20 Nov 2013 13:58:29 GMT

TIZ HERSELF- That's cool u got to see him that close up, the closest horse I ever got to in that size range was WILL TAKE CHARGE now that is another stud for sure , he is huge! I bet him in the classic , and one more stride and he had the macho man beat !

re: Thanksgiving at the Kentucky Derby

Tiz Herself — Wed, 20 Nov 2013 00:32:17 GMT

lunar spook - i was there to see Rock Hard Ten in person in 2010 during my first trip to Kentucky. Placed my hand on that monster's shoulder - I will not see his equal. He was one gorgeous speciman for sure. I hope he does get a Derby winner and the choice to sell him overseas is reconsidered.

re: Thanksgiving at the Kentucky Derby

Racingfan — Tue, 19 Nov 2013 13:14:49 GMT

Predict, Hear The Ghost just ran second in an allowance/optional claiming at Hollywood on 11-7. You can look him up on Equibase or create a "virtual stable" there to follow him and whomever else you like.

re: Thanksgiving at the Kentucky Derby

Davids — Mon, 18 Nov 2013 20:35:58 GMT

Patent is another A. P. Indy with promise and Harpoon, by Tapit, was a good second to the other Tapit, Matterhorn. Patent won on grass last Saturday.

re: Thanksgiving at the Kentucky Derby

lunar spook — Mon, 18 Nov 2013 18:22:48 GMT

TIZ HERSELF- Interesting list of 2 yr olds I am keeping an eye on SCHOOL OF HARD ROCKS ,if you have never looked up a close up still shot of his sire ROCK HARD TEN do it ! Ive been watching racing for over 40 yrs now and ROCK HARD TEN is the most toned up physical specimen of a horse I have ever seen , I guess time will tell what kind of sire he will become !

re: Thanksgiving at the Kentucky Derby

Old Timer — Mon, 18 Nov 2013 18:18:36 GMT

Steve,

I love the (assumed) tongue in cheek comment on the Delta Downs Jackpot!

While it is way too early for me, looking at your summaries, I always like the colts in Fappiano line. They have done well at the Derby. That name, Almost Famous, even has the sound of a winner. Could it be?

re: Thanksgiving at the Kentucky Derby

Tiz Herself — Mon, 18 Nov 2013 03:44:14 GMT

Anyone remember the filly Panty Raid? She has a two year old Darley homebred A.P. Indy colt named Theros who was a maiden winner 10/10/13 race 7.

Innovation Economy - Dynaformer x Somerset West, by Gone West

Wicked Strong - Hard Spun - Moyne Abbey, by Charismatic.

Pablo Del Monte - Giant's Causeway - One Hot Wish (she set a NTR at Keeneland for 4 1/2 furlongs as a two year old going 48.87), by Bring the Heat

Rankhasprivileges - Einstein - Scrape, by Mr. Prospector

Hirschy - Papa Clem - Flashy, by Wild Again - won Cavonnier Juvenile, etc.

Sioux - Awesome Again - Andraste, by Pulpit

Coup de Grace - Tapit - Home Court, by Storm Cat

Ziggy The Great - Langfuhr - Michele The Great, by Distorted Humor.

Swell - Langfuhr - Beijio, by Dr. Blum (Dr. Blum is sired by Dr. Fager) Beijio's damsire is Kris S

Misconnect - Unbridled's Song - Summer Raven, by Summer Squall - owned by Repole Stable

Request - Dynaformer - Shades of Grace, by Seeking the Gold

Matterhorn - Tapit - Winter Garden, by Roy

Beach Hut - First Defence - Chanceisalady, by American Chance

Divine View - Divine Park - Window Woman, by Skip Away

Spot - Pulpit - Quiet Summernight, by Quiet American

Legend Forever - Street Boss - Footsie, by Touch Gold

Laddie Boy - War Pass - Lil's Lassie, by Lil's Lad, broke maiden in 2nd try by 13 lengths

Wine Tipster - Hard Spun - Robbie's Gal, by Straight Man

Downey Gap - Bernardini - Pico Teneriffe, by Red Ransom

re: Thanksgiving at the Kentucky Derby

Tiz Herself — Mon, 18 Nov 2013 02:57:53 GMT

Some other two year olds that could be something for next year:

Green Mask - a maiden winner at Keeneland, son of Mizzen Mast - Bonsai Beauty by Forestry

Tiger Bourbon - a son of Big Brown - Tigresa, by Tejano... looked good winning a 1 1/16 mile allowance race at Churchill Downs. Tiger Bourbon was also second in the Laurel Futurity.

Sheikinator - Curlin - I'm a Dixie Girl, by Dixie Union - maiden winner 11/16/13 at Churchill

Schoolofhardrocks - Rock Hard Ten - Miss Chapin, by Royal Academy, maiden winner at Del Mar on 8/23/13

Aslan - A.P. Indy - Satin Kiss, by Seeking the Gold. Darley owned. Love the A.P. Indy over Seeking the Gold or Mr. Prospector mares. Has not broke maiden yet but in due time.

Rope - Henny Hughes - Confederate Bond, by Broken Vow

Ghostly Wonder - Corinthian - Another Wonder, by Wild Again. Maiden winner at Arlington Park 6/2/13

Mr Speaker - Pulpit - Salute, by Unbridled - Phipps Stable homebred

Commissioner - A.P. Indy - Flaming Heart, by Touch Gold

re: Thanksgiving at the Kentucky Derby

Paula Higgins — Sat, 16 Nov 2013 20:36:26 GMT

Interesting conversation livewire and Pedigree Ann. ITA with the much of what you are saying. People like John Shirreffs and Jerry and Ann Moss got that with Zenyatta. We need more of that. The 2 year olds are being asked to do too much too soon in many cases.

re: Thanksgiving at the Kentucky Derby

shawn st mark — Sat, 16 Nov 2013 16:55:46 GMT

I'll be rooting for the A. P. Indy's. Commissioner and Honor Code look like they have enormous potential.

re: Thanksgiving at the Kentucky Derby

Pedigree Ann — Fri, 15 Nov 2013 16:15:30 GMT

Livewire - Don't get me started on graded races! The original intentions of the creators of the grading system have been perverted to morph prep races into G1 races, to the detriment of the races for which they are preps.

And many major tracks have lessened the distances of races, especially longer races, without those races losing their grades, which by a strict reading of the rules, they should have. In the first list of open G1 races for older horses, there was one race at 8f (the Met Mile), one at 8.5f (the Californian), and two at 9f (the San Antonio and the defunct Governor's S=Governor Nicholls at Belmont, a Woodward prep on Labor Day). The other 11 were all at 10f or more. All but the Big Three California handicaps have been shortened, although the Brooklyn was recently re-lengthened to make it a BC Marathon prep. (Since Aqueduct lost its July meeting in the 1975 shake-up, the Brooklyn had had no real identity anymore, anyway).

At the same time that the powers-that-be have been shortening races for 3yos and older horses, they have been lengthening them for 2yos. One never saw 2-turn races for 2yos before mid-October in those days and even then and after, stakes races were often not 2-turns - the Remsen, Breeders' Futurity, and Kentucky Jockey Club S were all 1-turn races (8f for the first and third, end of the chute 7f+ for the second). Even the Pimlico-Laurel Futurity (Pimlico at 8.5f to 1966, Laurel at same post-1966) was one-turn at Laurel because of their 8f chute and second finish-line allowed it.

I object to early 2-turn races for 2yos because of the short run-ups on most tracks to the first turn. The horses are near top speed, trying to get balanced, jostling for position, stressing those immature knee and ankle joints. (Ironically, bullrings tend to have longer run-ups to the turns for 8.5f races, horses have settled into stride, so are probably less stressful to their joints. The same applies to turf races that start far up the stretch on infield turf courses.) 8f and 8.5f races on the main track in August for 2yos are an abomination to me.

That's a lot off of my chest.

re: Thanksgiving at the Kentucky Derby

livewire — Thu, 14 Nov 2013 20:06:52 GMT

Pedigree Ann

Your argument for Bernardini as a turf sire proved the point quite well. His best are likely in Europe and he has not shown much as a turf sire. 4 horses in now 4 years of racing with only one (2 years ago) winning in England, Ireland, or France. Boban and Ruud Awakening might be something racing in Australia and New Zealand. Their racing class in comparison may well prove comparative. Italy and UAE results have really not been anything to stand on historically. His best have been highly inconsistent. I doubt breeders are exactly beating his door down as far as a turf sire. He is ranked far down the list by any measure general, turf, or international. I still hope he turns it around and does well. He was a tremendous racehorse as was his sire. His dam was also very good.

I too came into racing in the early 70s, due in large part to Secretariat. My first issue of The Blood Horse covered the Youthful Stakes of 1977. The top two finishers, Affirmed and Alydar. What a way to begin following horse racing through the periodicals, since TV coverage was spotty at best. I truly believe the 70s gave us our last truly great entire male horse in Spectacular Bid. There are other ways to measure greatness but he was the last dominant male at all ages raced. Since then we have had several truly great fillies and mares but no males. We have had great geldings (John Henry, etc) and horses such as Cigar as a 4 year old who were dominant for short periods but nothing of any meaningful duration.

I remember when the yearling prices first broke the million with Secretariat's Canadian Bound (half to Dahlia) in 1975 culminating with Seattle Dancer in 1985 (13.1 million, half to Seattle Slew and Lomond). The select yearling sales no longer exist, which began the popularized hot house horse.

Commercial breeders success still is predicated by racetrack success to some extent. If a sire is not producing noone will be buying that sires offspring. "Balloon" yearlings have always been a part of the auction sales. I say "balloon" because as soon as real conditioning starts they deflate.

Precocious 2 year olds have also always been around. Its just that there usually was a 2 old around late summer or early fall to expose the precocious 2 year old as simply that. It seems like the thoroughbred that is just as good at 3 as at 2 became a suddenly rare thing after the 70s. Only Street Sense and Lookin at Lucky that I can think of. Alysheba was just beginning even though he competed in the Breeders Cup Juvenile.

A contributory factor to all of this has been the change in Grade 1 race distances, and Grade 1 opportunities. Prior to the 1980s Grade 1s shorter than 9 furlongs for 3 year olds and up were very few, mostly 2 year old races. It seems the triple crown races, spring triple crown preps, and some of the old handicap races are really the only races that still exist at the distances of the 70s and before. Even the handicap races are not the "handicap" weight assignments of a long time ago.

re: Thanksgiving at the Kentucky Derby

El Kabong — Thu, 14 Nov 2013 18:46:51 GMT

Anddddd They're OFFFFFFFFF!!!!!!!!!!!!

Here we go again gang. Get out your palantir and gaze in to it if you dare. Not I. The road to Mordor is full of misgivings.

Oh Say, Happy Thanksgiving to you all. Time to retreat into our Hobbit Holes and relish the family, and friends, good food and the hearth. I can't wait to get through the damp cold days ahead that lead up to Steve's first Derby Dozen.

Stay Warm.

re: Thanksgiving at the Kentucky Derby

lunar spook — Thu, 14 Nov 2013 17:49:40 GMT

PEDIGREE ANN- I too fell in love with the sport in the seventies which in my opinion produced the best group of racehorses ever , do you think with the steroid ban we will years down the road see the 2 year olds give us a better indication of their derby potential ?

re: Thanksgiving at the Kentucky Derby

Pedigree Ann — Thu, 14 Nov 2013 17:04:09 GMT

Yes, Lunar Spook; since the 1980s when some started selling investment in a TB like a stock market investment, the fast return has become the place to make money, just as it has on Wall Street. Commercial breeders have to follow the market, or they go out of business.

So they seize on the stallions who get early maturing stock for the yearling sales who look fully grown rather than gangling and unfinished like natural yearlings. Anabolic steroids to accelerate that 'mature' look became rampant and have only recently been banned for young sales horses.

Those early maturing types are ahead of their peers as 2yos so make a splash for their 'fast return' owners, but by the time they are 3yos, they begin to lose their advantage.

I started 'going racing' in 1970, just in time for a wonderful decade of racing, still based on the old fashioned breeding style, where classic winners were preferred over hot 2yos, yearling prices rarely exceeded what a good racehorse could earn on the track, and even the best stallions had fewer than 50 (usually more like 30-40) foals a year. I didn't know then how lucky I was.

re: Thanksgiving at the Kentucky Derby

lunar spook — Thu, 14 Nov 2013 14:01:48 GMT

PEDIGREE ANN- I did some research and u were right about 2 yr old races pertaining to the derby , if my figures are correct 6 HORSES in the seventies named 2 yr old horse of the year went on to capture the derby , RIVA RIDGE, SECRETARIAT , FOOLISH PLEASURE, SEATTLE SLEW , AFFIRMED , & SPECTACULAR BID , SINCE THEN ONLY STREET SENSE IN 2006 DID IT , and to be perfectly honest many of the two yr old champs did not do much at all as 3 yr olds , is this coincidence are in the way breeding has changed ?

re: Thanksgiving at the Kentucky Derby

Dutch — Wed, 13 Nov 2013 21:41:07 GMT

Predict,

I haven't heard anything about Hear the Ghost, who was definitely a live prospect before getting injured. Back in 1988, Jerry Hollendorfer also had a live horse with Event of the Year, who was injured just a week or two before the Kentucky Derby. Then, in the year 2000, his Globalize was knocked out of the race after getting kicked by a pony at Churchill Downs. Maybe the racing gods will have something better in store for Hollendorfer next year. . .

re: Thanksgiving at the Kentucky Derby

lunar spook — Wed, 13 Nov 2013 21:08:55 GMT

PEDIGREE ANN- thanks for the info , im still learning , I was interested in the Remsen because a couple of horses who may run in it look like great prospects , but yes u r correct come spring some prospects will arise we haven't even discussed yet !

re: Thanksgiving at the Kentucky Derby

Pedigree Ann — Wed, 13 Nov 2013 17:23:54 GMT

Livewire -

Bernardini has a wicked-good turf miler in Australia this season. Four-yo Boban won the Epsom Hcp/Emirates double, which hadn't been won for a couple of decades - he is 5 for 5 this racing year (which started on 1 August).

He also has G1-winning top 2yo filly (2012/2013 season) Ruud Awakening(AUS) racing in NZ. And back in 2011, Gamilati won a G2 in Britain at 2, then won UAE 1000 Guineas on Tapeta. Not to mention Biondetti, who won the G1 Gran Criterium at 2 in Italy.

Plenty of turfers in Bernardini's catalogue of best winners.

re: Thanksgiving at the Kentucky Derby

Pedigree Ann — Wed, 13 Nov 2013 16:47:32 GMT

Lunar spook - the Remsen has rarely been a good barometer for the Derby in the last 30 years. Two winners back-to-back, Thunder Gulch and Go for Gin, won both. Blue Grass Cat won and was distantly second in the Derby. Mucho Macho Man was second and third in the Derby. Empire Maker was 3rd and 2nd in the Derby. That's about it. Actually, MOST 2yo stakes races aren't good indicators for the Kentucky Derby anymore, since many breeders have been breeding specialist early maturing 2yos in response to the sales market for a couple decades.

Yes, Lunar Spook, several recent Remsen winners have had successful careers, but we are speaking about the Kentucky Derby here.