New King of the Derby Trail

re: New King of the Derby Trail

Aleine — Wed, 22 Jan 2014 20:23:39 GMT

Hey does anyone know anything about Barbaro's siblings?

Of course we all know for whatever reason they were moved from Mike Matz' training barn. Since they are Dynaformer progeny interested to know what they're up to.

re: New King of the Derby Trail

JayJay — Tue, 21 Jan 2014 02:59:30 GMT

Davids : Fair enough, but if you're going to do a head to head comparison, you can't leave out Palace Malice who beat Oxbow in the Belmont and placed higher in the Risen Star. Oxbow did place higher in the KY Derby.

re: New King of the Derby Trail

Davids — Mon, 20 Jan 2014 20:36:26 GMT

JayJay, that is correct - head to head - that's the record not a jaundice view by a turf writer. Apart from Steve, naturally, and a handful of others.

I preferred the results of The Blood-Horse polls but I have my bias' as well.

re: New King of the Derby Trail

JayJay — Sun, 19 Jan 2014 20:59:14 GMT

Davids : I don't think Oxbow's record comes anywhere near WTC's record this year. I'm not sure what you mean by he has a superior record than WTC...

WTC : 2 Grade 1 wins, 2 Grade 2 wins.

Oxbow : 1 Grade 1 win and 1 Grade 3 win

Unless you're arguing for a head to head record between the two.

re: New King of the Derby Trail

Jean in Chicago — Sun, 19 Jan 2014 20:25:49 GMT

Coldfacts,

I'm not arguing with you, I'm just saying that breeding a great horse is a whole lot more complicated than anybody has yet figured out. The old saying 'breed the best to the best and hope for the best' may sum it up, with the 'hope for the best' being the most important part.

Somethingroyal certainly was not a highly raced mare (1 race, unplaced) and she produced Sir Gaylord and Secretariat from 2 different sires. The repeat breeding to Bold Ruler obviously did not produce a second Secretariat. Urban Sea had a great racing career and, before her untimely death, produced My Typhoon, Sea the Stars and Galileo.

Beyond the obvious fact that a foal spends the first 11 months of its life inside the mare and therefore her physical condition may have an effect, I have no idea what produces top notch offspring. The years of planning that lead John Nerud to Fappiano could have failed at any point along the way. Its another one of those situations where everything has to go right and nothing can go wrong.

But hope springs eternal in horse racing. That's the reason buyers paid astonishing prices for Galileo's offspring this past year and the only sure thing about these horses is that some of them will never race and some of them will never win. But people wrote those gigantic checks hoping that the one they bought will be the next Frankel. And if that happens, we still won't know whether to give the 'credit' to the mare or the sire.

re: New King of the Derby Trail

Davids — Sun, 19 Jan 2014 07:07:55 GMT

Steve, Dance Card's younger brother, Hartford, was extremely impressive in his debut but I thought Tonalist, another exciting Tapit colt, was as equally impressive in winning at Gulfstream Park.

As for the Eclipse Awards, why not eliminate the human factor - points given to major races so that a racehorse's body of achievement, throughout the year, is truly appreciated. Oxbow, as an example, may as well not even run yet has a superior race record over the Eclipse winner.

re: New King of the Derby Trail

JayJay — Sun, 19 Jan 2014 05:43:43 GMT

Exit Stage Left won the Cal Derby today on the lead, not sure I liked the way he ran the race. I do like the fact that he repelled the 1 horse and was actually pulling away in the end. Now I'm really anxious to see him on dirt, I'm confident he'll be a lot better on it. I hope Jerry takes him to Fair Grounds, since he has Shared Belief and Tamarando here.

re: New King of the Derby Trail

Ranagulzion — Sat, 18 Jan 2014 12:53:49 GMT

Rusty Weisner: in the LeComte I'll go along with you with Vicar's in Trouble but I like Smarty's Echo for the exactor.

The Holy Bull a week away is shaping up nicely. So far I fancy Almost Famous ahead of Cairo Prince and Conquest Titan ...we'll see.

re: New King of the Derby Trail

spendabuck85 — Sat, 18 Jan 2014 00:46:12 GMT

After Tamarando beats up on more Cal breeds, Jerry will send him to Turfway to win the Spiral and off to Churchill. Breed to love going longer on his female side and Churchill will be great for his running style.

re: New King of the Derby Trail

Rusty Weisner — Fri, 17 Jan 2014 20:05:01 GMT

Ranagulzion,

You are sorely mistaken - I did terribly in the BC, ate chalk.

Don't know about the Holy Bull - that's next weekend. I'm trying the Lecomte this weekend, first bets since the BC. I'll try Vicar's In Trouble and will take him over Golden Hawk. Races 7,8, 9 are all good and this circuit was the top one last year. There's a big 3-yo filly prospect in R7, Unbridled Forever.

re: New King of the Derby Trail

Obmar — Fri, 17 Jan 2014 05:40:04 GMT

Well, in 1873, in the US, the American studbook was created which catalogued the sires of the leading horses. It marked the beginning of the rationalization of the business of horseracing. A stallion named Lexington emerged as the leading sire and he would continue to lead for 14 years as owners of broodmares from far and wide, looking for a competitive advantage, sent him their mares. The studbook propagated the idea that genetic inheritance rested with the male. Stud service became big business leading to more and more stallions from around the world being imported to North America.

Suddenly, females stopped running against males. Almost all races became segregated by gender and the entrants in the big open stakes races were mostly male. Female ability didn't decline, as the new sires were producing offspring of both sexes, but these races became significant in establishing potential sires. It was why many of these races were created at all. They were showcases for future sires and built the illusion that the significant talent that would give you an edge came from males. Fillies beating up on colts is simply bad for business.As modern horseracing took shape, sexist attitudes developed about fillies. They should avoid these races because after all, they aren't as good as males. They have their own little races with smaller purse money. The reading I did at Humber was like stepping back in time. The views of female horses were adapted from the most reactionary judgements of humans. Females are temperamental I read, sulky, especially when menstruating. Unlike males, you can't hit them. They are weaker and frailer. Train them easier than males. And on and on. It suggested a self-fulfilling prophecy. Theories to explain the genetic superiority of males were nonsense.

re: New King of the Derby Trail

Ranagulzion — Fri, 17 Jan 2014 05:03:07 GMT

Carlos in Cali: I should've guessed that Honor Code would pull you out of your hiatus (LOL). Well it seems we might not have much to rumble about this Triple crown season ...only be cautious because an A P Indy offspring is yet to land the Kentucky Derby. My theory still holds (not my wish, just clear evidence). Honor Code appears to be an exception to the rule. Let's pray that he stays free from injury/setbacks.

re: New King of the Derby Trail

Coldfacts — Fri, 17 Jan 2014 04:43:43 GMT

Jean in Chicago,

“The mare contributes so much more genetic material to her foals than the sire.”

I have seen the above statement posted on many occasions. The obvious question has to be, how much more? If a foal is 50% of its dam and 50% of its sire, what measures are used to determine the extent of the dam’s greater genetic material input? Conversely, what measures are used to determine the extent of the sire’s lesser genetic material input? Is there a verification test?

In the absence of acceptable answers to the above questions, I cannot buy into something that cannot be substantiated.

Despite the litany of G1 winning mares in the last 40 years that have transitioned to broodmares, none have produced a Kentucky Derby winner. This is despite being bred to some of the best stallions in the US. Do mares selectively determine when they provide the greater genetic input? Is it to be assumed that some mares do not provide greater genetic material when the resulting race horse is moderate?

Something Royal the dam of Secretariat produced a full sibling to the great horse that could not get out of its own way. Did she withhold her greater proportion of genetic material on that occasion?

Unraced mares are amongst the best producers of champion thoroughbreds. In fact, unraced mares have produced more Derby winners than G1 wining mares in the last 40 years. G1 wining mares have race records and consequently their abilities are known. Unraced mares do not and consequently they are unknown quantities outside of their pedigrees. Does racing inhibit a mare’s capacity to provide this greater proportion of genetic material?

In many instances a mare will produce one possibly two exceptional horses despite being bred to several stallions. Is it safe to assume that moderate horses are victims of the absence of their dams grater genetic material?

Some brilliant race mares turnout to be disappointing broodmares. Why? They like all other mares provide a greater proportion of genetic material for foals.

re: New King of the Derby Trail

ROBBIEJOE25 — Thu, 16 Jan 2014 23:41:48 GMT

Sorry I meant the 6th race............

re: New King of the Derby Trail

ROBBIEJOE25 — Thu, 16 Jan 2014 23:40:57 GMT

Day of Fury will be unveiled Friday at Santa Anita in the 5th race..................

re: New King of the Derby Trail

Jean in Chicago — Thu, 16 Jan 2014 23:06:50 GMT

Coldfact,

I didn't see Mary's comment that you quoted (the dam contributing more genetic material than the sire) so I can't respond directly to her. Yes, the male and female each contribute 50% of the genetic material (not withstanding the Jockey Club's weird definitions of siblings), but it turns out that some genes are repressed while others are expressed. New research has shown that the stallion is responsible for the formation of the placenta and that this may be the explanation of the broodmare sire effect. The research is from Cornell and published in : Proc Nat Acad Sci, 2013 June 25; 110(26); 10705-10. A nice recap is in The Horse, Sept 22, 2013.

We do pay attention to the tail line and personally, just going by percentages, I'd rather someone give me the foal of a great broodmare like Somethingroyal or Urban Sea than pretty much any stallion. Although, I sure wouldn't say no to any of Galileo's babies.

re: New King of the Derby Trail

Carlos in Cali — Thu, 16 Jan 2014 22:34:14 GMT

Davids,

I agree.

Ranagulzion,

My stubborn,'the-world-is-flat,what dinosaurs?'.. thinking brethren!

Your "theory" regarding AP Indy and his progeny should've been laid to rest the second he won the Hollywood Futurity as a 2yo AND especially when Pulpit,from his 1st crop,did what he did...

re: New King of the Derby Trail

Windolin — Thu, 16 Jan 2014 20:44:19 GMT

Coldfacts: It could be that the stars will align and beautiful Honor Code will be the next TC winner. He certainly has the pedigree and the look in his eye of a champion. I have felt for years that the next TC winner will carry the blood of my beloved Secretariat.

re: New King of the Derby Trail

Pedigree Ann — Thu, 16 Jan 2014 01:43:56 GMT

Wicked Strong is one I have my eye on. Despite the trotting-horse pace early in the race, he was able to close significant ground on the lead horses in the stretch. And he has a better staying pedigree than most - Turkoman, Charismatic, Summer Squall, With Approval in the first three generations, all on top of a Fred Hooper-developed female family.

re: New King of the Derby Trail

Pedigree Ann — Thu, 16 Jan 2014 01:31:30 GMT

Coldfacts - Wolf Power was basically a miler who outclassed a field at 10f; his sire Flirting Around was a sprinter/miler, whose best win was the 5f King's Stand S(G1), while his dam was by John's Joy, a good blue-collar source of sprint/mile speed. With Midnight Lute's own questionable distance proclivities, it is hard to see where the Derby stamina would come from in Midnight Hawk.

Round Table was a fish-and-foul mating - a staying sire with a staying pedigree and a sprinting mare with a sprinting pedigree. He was that rare perfect synthesis of the two, while his full sister Monarchy took after mom. At stud, Round Table could throw either way - the fast, distance-limited early maturer or the distance-loving, later maturing sort. The son who sired the dams of two Derby winners, Poker, was one of the staying types, while the most of those who made a name as stallions were the first type - Baldric II (in Australia), Apalachee, Tell, King's Bishop, Targowice (in France), Take Your Place, Brahms, Artaius, et. al. Just to remind you that not all sons of a stallion are equivalent and have to be evaluated on their own talents and accomplishments, not their sire's.

re: New King of the Derby Trail

Ranagulzion — Thu, 16 Jan 2014 01:14:03 GMT

Coldfacts: Regarding your question "Did I just read that you are touting a son of A P Indy to win the Derby?" I have to say that your memory is beginning to age because I addressed my post to you last year in which I picked Honor code as my Derby horse and wrote that I fancied Shug McGaughey to score back to back Derby victories. Anyway, I see Honor Code as an exceptional talent and an exception to the late development syndrome "rule" in the A P Indy colts that has denied Derby success to date. I think that Honor Code is so good that even though he will really blossom later, his ability during the Derby season will be good enough. Having Storm Cat so close up in his pedigree is a concern in terms of the stamina limitation influence of that broodmare sire but Honor Code acts like he unaffected and wants a distance of ground.

Steve's brilliant parsing of the RAN/Mr Prospector sire line to reveal the dominance of Fappiano should be lauded by you. Fappiano is the strongest paternal influence of that sire line on Derby winners Unbriddled, Grindstone and Mine That Bird.

The Derby trail has only just begun and already the "Todd squad" has begun to expose its arsenal in that eyecatching performance of the Tapit colt, Constituton. Look out for the Tapit offsprings to become stronger, as he started out with covering modest mares but will from hereon be showing what he can produce with the elite broodmare bands that he's been covering. His progeny should be staying further than 9 furlongs from now on and he has showe the potential to throw "special ones".

There are a few unheralded, nicely bred colts that I'll be watching that potentially could have "special" qualities: Awesome Sky and Gambler's Ghost are among them ...one never knows but the speculation is great fun.

Rusty Weisner: Happy New Year. Yes I certainly enjoyed being vindicated in my Breeders Cup Classic analysis and predictions. You didn't do too badly yourself. Now its unto the Dery preps. Who do you like in the Holy Bull?

Read more on BloodHorse.com: cs.bloodhorse.com/.../new-king-of-the-derby-trail.aspx

re: New King of the Derby Trail

Davids — Wed, 15 Jan 2014 20:44:30 GMT

It would be fitting to have Honor Code win the Derby for, arguably, the two most influential sires over the past 2 decades. His is only fooling around at present, and what presence. Mind you, there are some very talented Tapits, Pulpits, and other A.P. Indys he will have to beat.

re: New King of the Derby Trail

Coldfacts — Wed, 15 Jan 2014 20:34:58 GMT

Ranagulzion,

Did I just read that you are touting a son of A P Indy to win the Derby? It appears you have abandoned the Late Development Syndrome theory as it relates to A P Indy and his line of stallions.

Is Honor Cope a likely Derby winner? A P Indy and Storm Cat retired without siring a Derby winner. They were bred to some of the best mares America had to offer. They are now expected to combine for a Derby winner? Interesting!

The KDFP #1 that closed at the end of November contained 24 betting interests. The dams of four of the betting interests were sired by Storm Cat i.e., Coup de Grace, Honor Code, Ride On Curlin and Shared Belief. I have seen other 3YOs that reflect Storm Cat as dam sire. Storm Cat is certainly well repented in 2013.

History reflects that with so many horses with Storm Cat mares on the Derby Trail, a Derby winner is unlikely to emerge. Is this bad news? No!

Derby runner-up Bluegrass Cat was sired by Storm Cat and was out od a A.P. Indy mare. Derby runner-up aptitude was sired by A P Indy and was out of a Northern Dancer mare. Rags To Riches was a product the A P Indy/Northern Dancer cross.

The A P Indy/Northern Dancer cross has been fairly successful. Your only worry should be the 11 betting interests contained in the KDFP #1 who are from the Mr. Prospector sire line.

re: New King of the Derby Trail

Linda in Texas — Wed, 15 Jan 2014 17:45:28 GMT

Hi Steve - In light of the fact that i usually am off topic, please allow me to be consistent and start the new year out by noting that beginning January 31, 2014 and going thru February 18, 2015, in The Chinese Zodiac this is known as The Year of The Horse. I think that fact is close enough to the sport of horses that we all love, to make mention of it. I hope the rest of the year is kind to the horses, so i don't start my day by reading about the loss of anymore horses way before their time. Thanks Steve this list is a start for me to study up!

re: New King of the Derby Trail

Saratoga AJ — Wed, 15 Jan 2014 16:54:39 GMT

Informative article on the early Derby trail. Got to love this time of year.

Glad you mentioned Wicked Strong, whose Remsen effort indicated he could be a major player down the road. I liked what I saw down the stretch and I believe he wins that race easily if it was a furlong longer...the Derby distance. He's a closer who was compromised by the snail like early fractions, and yet closed into a blazing final 1/16 of a mile or so as you pointed out

Steve.