Tapit and the Derby Trail

re: Tapit and the Derby Trail

lunar spook — Thu, 30 Jan 2014 18:12:13 GMT

BILLyRF - OH WHERE TO BEGIN ? TAPIT had a career record of 3-0-0 from 6 starts , I guess it rained every race ? sounds to me like you lost your a** at the race and want to blame it on a great horse like SMARTY JONES ! I raked up that day , too bad for you sport ! maybe you should try your luck at sunday bingo !

re: Tapit and the Derby Trail

BillyRF — Thu, 30 Jan 2014 17:01:49 GMT

I was at the 2004 Derby also; Tapit was my choice before the skies opened up. No come-from-behind horse had a chance in that slop. Smart-*ss Jones only had to beat a few front runners. On a dry track, the outcome would have been very different.

re: Tapit and the Derby Trail

predict — Mon, 27 Jan 2014 00:47:19 GMT

Steve, thanks for the interesting read on Tapit. I found this to be very useful information. In particular you wrote,"He had been recommended by Dr. David Lambert after Lambert performed a heart scan on the colt. "

How important is a heart scan in knowing the racing potential and breeding future for a horse? We as mere horseplayers would love to have this kind of information, early on in a horse's career. Did Tapit's scan show an extra large heart? Judging by the price paid, we could probably assume this to be the case.

On the topic of overbreeding a stallion, I was wondering if it is the frequency required for a large booking in a year or just the large number itself, as this could be important to know; because at the beginning of the bookings, what could make a difference in a stallion that breeds 50 times and is done for the year and a stallion that also has been bred 50 times, but still has another 100 to go for the year. The stallion certainly doesn't have any idea how many times he has been bred to, or how many he has to go. I disagree with those here who don't believe that environment(and by environment, we would definitely have to include the number of breedings in a year)can have an effect on the offspring. The latest studies in genetics have shown that environment does affect the genetics of offspring. Anyway, what conclusion can be drawn on this topic without actually comparing the actual number or sequence of the offspring beig tracked. At what point does the frequency start to interfer? At the number 50 or when? There are still a lot of questions to be answere here.

re: Tapit and the Derby Trail

Coldfacts — Sat, 25 Jan 2014 14:07:10 GMT

Lunar Spook,

You do have some valid points that merit the provision of some colt facts.

The winners of Triple Crown races have had moderate success as sires in the Derby and Preakness in the last 30 years. However, they have a 33.33% win record in the Belmont over the same period.

During this period only four Derby winners have been sired by the winners of TC races i.e., Swale, Grindstone, Mine That Bird and Charismatic.

These sires performed marginally better in the Preakness during the same period with five winners i.e., Risen Star, Charismatic, Red Bullet, Point Given and Bernardini.

They have dominated the Belmont with ten winners in the same period i.e., Swale, Risen Star, A P Indy, Colonial Affair, Point Given, Empire Maker, Birdstone, Rags To Riches, Summer Bird and Palace Malice.

Are the winners of TC races amongst the leaders with mares bred each year? No! In fact Belmont winners always have difficulties finding farm to stand them. Despite the fact that their Stud Fees are historically low in comparison to those of brilliant millers, they are always underutilized.

Whilst in some circles speed kills, it is a major selling point in thoroughbreds breeding and racing circles. This is due to good old Beyers. Like war, what are Beyes good for? Absolutely nothing!

The hope that an exceptionally fast horse will carry its speed will trump its stamina capability any and every time.

Speed will always dominate breeding and stamina will always be a distance second as horses can be given a series of exercises to carry their most important asset over a distance of ground.

re: Tapit and the Derby Trail

trackjack — Sat, 25 Jan 2014 11:53:47 GMT

lunar spook:

Right on! Well said!

re: Tapit and the Derby Trail

Davids — Sat, 25 Jan 2014 08:15:04 GMT

Speaking of evaluating stud careers, I always remember a famous speech by the leading veterinarian of the time stating that "of the 3 leading sires he would have cut 2 of them." The one he would have left entire was A. P. Indy.

I remember when a stallion servicing 50 mares a year was considered high.

re: Tapit and the Derby Trail

Pedigree Ann — Sat, 25 Jan 2014 02:50:10 GMT

"America’s leading yearling sire with 49 yearlings sold for $19.5M and average of $404K" Yeah, and The Green Monkey sold for $15 million and was well beaten in all 4 races. High-priced weanlings/yearlings/2yos-in-training may make money for their breeders and/or pinhookers, but don't necessarily make it for their racing owners.

"Sire of twelve G1 winners, four champions, and four Breeder Cup winners.

11 Current Stakes winners; 32 stakes horses in 2013 & nearly $50M in progeny earnings."

Raw numbers can be very misleading. Suppose two stallions have 15 graded winners (in approximately even proportions of grades and purses) each on a year - which one is doing better? Which one will be higher on the leading sires list? If one stallion has only 50 horses racing, while the other has 300, the answer is that the 50-foal sire is doing better (30% graded SWs!), while 400-foal sire will undoubtedly be higher on sires list, because he has many more horses running and adding to his total. Isn't interesting that all of Tapit's BC winners did so at 1-1 1/16? And three did it at age 2? And none of those three were classic stars at 3?

As to number of stakes horses, how many other Tapits were running during that same periods of time? 100? 200? 300? 500? It does make a difference to someone who understands how numbers work. Now if Tapit were getting 32% stakes horses from foals, like Hoist the Flag did in his day, that would be something, but I very much doubt that is the case.

Love Tapit all you like, but always be realistic when evaluating a stud career.

re: Tapit and the Derby Trail

Roxanne Yearout — Sat, 25 Jan 2014 01:49:04 GMT

When interviewed after Tapit's disappointing Derby run, I believe Dickinson said "I taught my horse to run, not swim." Classic.

re: Tapit and the Derby Trail

Davids — Fri, 24 Jan 2014 21:51:22 GMT

Coldfacts, everyone is entitled to their theories but to some, your argument on Tapit's progeny tending to be 'fragile' because many have not run in the Kentucky Derby is specious, as has been pointed out.

Your argument could easily be applied to Malibu Moon's progeny with probably 'worse fragile' figures than Tapits based on your criteria of passing on 'fragility' because of the lack of numbers that have run in the Kentucky Derby.

Yet, Malibu Moon may have the best figures of any of the 'popular' commercial stallions because Orb won last year. You can extrapolate figures to argue any kind of 'rubbery solution' - economics, as an example.

re: Tapit and the Derby Trail

lunar spook — Fri, 24 Jan 2014 20:57:01 GMT

SCEPTRE , COLDFACTS: Not trying to butt in to u guys discussion , but do u think we are seeing an overall trend in fragility and unsoundness in horses because they are mainly being bred for speed over shorter distances ? we have no where near the classic 1 1/4 mile horses we had in the seventies because soundness and stamina are being bred out of them , that is to me the single biggest reason we have not had a triple crown in 35 yrs ! just this persons humble opinion , WHAT U SAY ?

re: Tapit and the Derby Trail

Coldfacts — Fri, 24 Jan 2014 06:14:35 GMT

“Pure hogwash, as usual.”

Hogwash: Nonsense as usual. That’s not very nice. Kindly display some decorum and apologize!

“You are attempting to refute what is, essentially, irrefutable. The numbers don't lie, nor do the probabilities”

Wow! You are certainly fired up with anger. What numbers are you referring to? If you have worked out probabilities for Derby starter based on large and small books and they are consistent with Tapit’s record of starters, then I accept your figures. Are you aware the he had 15 of the 300 plus early Derby nominations in 2013 and only one starter?

“Your anecdotal observations notwithstanding; "overbreeding" does not, and cannot, cause unsoundness in the stallions' offspring.”

My English is nowhere near as good as yours. Let’s examine the section of my post that relates to your quote above.

“A stallion that appears to pass on unsoundness to its progenies should not be overbred as this will only make them even more fragile.”

I have never equated unsoundness to overbreeding. What I have equated to overbreeding is fragility. You will note I did not state that overbreeding would make them more unsound but rather more fragile. Tapit’s horses are very soft and injury prone. Breeding him to almost 200 mares per year will not make them more durable.

NB: How starters sired by Giant’s Causeway contest the major turf races in the USA each year? BTW he is non-existent on European scene. He remains the king of the overbreds.

re: Tapit and the Derby Trail

Delrene — Fri, 24 Jan 2014 05:47:36 GMT

Thank you so much for your insight and photos of Tapit. What a handsome fellow. Love to watch his offspring and of course, Zenyatta/Tapit baby will be one to watch. You take great pictures.

re: Tapit and the Derby Trail

Coldfacts — Fri, 24 Jan 2014 05:40:45 GMT

LanceS,

“Nothing wrong with a sire who consistently produces graded stakes winners at 8-9f.”

I cannot disagree with the above. However, the Blog mentioned Tapit progenies that are on the Derby trail and not stakes winner. As you are aware the Derby is contested over 10F and is opened to fillies.

“In terms of soundness, he has more than 20 stakes class horses with at least 20 career starts, and another 20+ with at least a dozen.”

I am in no position to dispute your facts. However, I am viewing soundness in the contest of the TC races. In 2013 Tapit had 15 progenies comprising early nomination for the Derby. He had one starter in Normandy Invasion. That colt has not race since. His other Derby starter Hansen was injured after the Derby and retired. Tapit progenies are comparable to those of the late Unbridled Song i.e., fragile.

A contributor provided a list of 13 that have raced and I suspect there are more to come. The 3YO scene is loaded with Tapit progenies and I guess time will tell if my assessment is unfounded.

re: Tapit and the Derby Trail

Greg R — Fri, 24 Jan 2014 05:07:52 GMT

Is Tapit still as playful?

Someone mentioned Tapit's Stardom Bound, which Mike Smith called his Little Zenyatta. She excelled on synthetic tracks, including the turf horse-friendly ProRide, which they had at the time. Others mentioned that Tapit's progeny have not been very durable. These facts together make me think that perhaps more Tapits should be running on the grass, which would be easier on them, physically, and they could probably go longer on the grass, as well. I know that he has had some good grass horses, but maybe more of them should be pointed to turf races early in their careers. After they have built up more strength and condition, they can try dirt and handle it better as more mature horses, instead of pounding their way down the Triple Crown trail as talented, but light and frail, horses.

re: Tapit and the Derby Trail

sceptre — Thu, 23 Jan 2014 20:34:26 GMT

ColdFacts:

Pure hogwash, as usual. You are attempting to refute what is, essentially, irrefutable. The numbers don't lie, nor do the probabilities. You may prefer it were otherwise, but it isn't. 1 + 1 is still 2, not 3... With that in mind, Giant's Causeway (to use one of your examples) actually did rather well to have (as you say)four Derby starters in nine 3 yr. old crops. This is especially true when one considers that GC is primarily a turf sire...And lastly, your anecdotal observations notwithstanding; "overbreeding" does not, and can not, cause unsoundness in the stallions' offspring. There is absolutely no scientific logic or evidence to support such a statement.

re: Tapit and the Derby Trail

LanceS — Thu, 23 Jan 2014 19:47:31 GMT

A couple of notes:

1. While it's true that Tapit has so far not shown much in the Triple Crown races, it's also true that most of his best runners have been fillies and most have done their best running at around a mile. Nothing wrong with a sire who consistently produces graded stakes winners at 8-9f.

2. In terms of soundness, he has more than 20 stakes class horses with at least 20 career starts, and another 20+ with at least a dozen, which in this day and age of limited campaigns and early retirement is probably about as good as any.

re: Tapit and the Derby Trail

Coldfacts — Thu, 23 Jan 2014 15:40:02 GMT

There is no doubt that Tapit is an elite sire. The information below was extracted from a popular publication:-

America’s leading yearling sire with 49 yearlings sold for $19.5M and average of $404K

Sire of twelve G1 winners, four champions, and four Breeder Cup winners.

11 Current Stakes winners; 32 stakes horses in 2013 & nearly $50M in progeny earnings.

2014 Stud Fee $150,000

Wow! This guy is very good as the numbers do not lie. If the above numbers are published to highlight certain categories of his success than those that highlight other categories no so favorable should not be deem either silly or irrelevant.

Despite Tapit’s large books and the resulting success of his progenies, his record of starters in the Derby is particular and Triple Crown in general is very poor. His record of starter in the TC series of races was highlighted based on the fact that nine of his progenies were cited as being on the Derby Trail. He certainly has the most on the Derby trail. What is the protect of any making the Derby based on past record? Remote!

Some of the points raised by the learned contributor are very valid. However, it must be assumed that when yearlings sired by an elite stallion are purchased for an average price of $400K, there are likely to be Derby and Triple Crown expectations.

Who would disagree that larger books provide greater opportunities for at least one Derby starter each year. This does not necessarily mean that will be the reality. Tapit seem to be going in the direction of his fellow overbred counterpart Giant’s Causeway who has only 4 Derby starters from nine 3YO crops to race with none hitting the board.

A stallion that appears to pass on unsoundness to its progenies should not be overbred as this will only make them even more fragile.

re: Tapit and the Derby Trail

sceptre — Thu, 23 Jan 2014 00:48:39 GMT

Always nice, and very informative to read a trainer's account of his horse's "history". It's particularly compelling when it's a horse such as Tapit, an elite sire...Now let's try to put to rest some of this silly nonsense about his number of Derby starters or, for that matter, what should be expected from stallions with very large books. Those stallions, Tapit included, have little better than one chance in nine or ten of having an entrant in the Derby for any individual year. Stallions with smaller books have even lesser chance. It boils down to simple mathematics when one factors in N. American foal crop size, the Derby being nearly exclusively for colts, and an approx. 20 horse field. So, no matter how you slice it (even granting that some stallions are afforded far greater "opportunity" re larger books, etc.) the odds are still very much against any individual stallion having a Derby entrant for any given year.

re: Tapit and the Derby Trail

Tiz Herself — Wed, 22 Jan 2014 23:50:59 GMT

Awesome read as always Steve! Tapit is absolutely gorgeous and each year look forward to following his kids - my fav of his will always be Stardom Bound, however he has a few talented three year olds that should wreck havoc on the races this year! Of course there is Tapiture, Tap It Rich and Coup De Grace, but there is also:

Ontology - out of the King of Kings (by Sadler's Wells) mare Shytoe Lafeet, Ontology was runner up in the 6F Hollywood Juvenile Championship and Oak Tree Juvenile Turf Stakes. His last start he was 3rd in the Sham behind Midnight Hawk and Kristo.

Divine Energy - a roan colt out of the Storm Cat Mare Pure Symmetry (daughter of Serena's song) bred by The Robert & Beverly Lewis Trust and owned by winStar Farm. Eagerly waiting for this guy to break his maiden.

Juba - out of the Danzig Connection mare Adoradancer owned by Centennial Farms, a $250k KEESEP12 purchase

Areed - 1/2 brother to Kodiak Kowboy, unable to find race record on him thus far but he was a $450k FTAUG12 purchase

Matterhorn - owned by Coolmore connections and out of the Roy mare Winter Garden- broke his maiden at first asking on November 16, 2013 going a mile at Aqueduct

Constitution - out of the Distorted Humor mare Baffled, Constitution was a 7FL maiden winner at Gulfstream Park on January 11/14

Hartford - owned by Stonestreet Stables, out of the Editor's Note mare Tempting Note - broke maiden Jan 16/14 at Gulfstream Park.

And he has lots of promising fillies as well

Untapable, Cassatt, Dancing House, Playful Love, Walk Close, Riviera Romper (out of the mare Swap Fliparoo - whom I loved!), Let It Snow, etc. am sure there are others - cannot wait!

Thanks again Steve for taking me back to 2004 - who could forget that crop of three year olds? Along with Tapit, there was Smarty Jones, Lion Heart, Castledale (miss him!), Birdstone, Pro Prado, Rock Hard Ten, Quinton's Gold Rush, Read the Footnotes, Action This Day, Borrego, The Cliff's Edge, and the ladies Ashado, Madcap Escapade, Island Sand, Hollywood Story, Halfbridled, Stellar Jayne, etc.

Always rooting for Tapit!

- the year of Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Ouija Board (whom I hope to see her son Australia win some Euro classics this year!), Sweet Catomine, Ashado, Better Talk Now,

re: Tapit and the Derby Trail

El Kabong — Wed, 22 Jan 2014 22:18:40 GMT

This is really warming things up Steve. No better way to start things off then by remembering the roads of Derbies past. I have a soft spot for Tapit. I remember Tapit's Derby run well. He was my pick that year when Rock Hard Ten was DQ'd in the Santa Anita Derby and failed to qualify. I remember Tapit's Wood effort too, because I had him singled in a pick 4. Forest Danger clubbed everyone in the Bayshore and my ringer Pico Central came through(it was his first race back east and as usual, he was ignored). The 4th leg was a claimer and I had half the field but it paid over a grand for a $12 dollar ticket. I had to root for Tapit after that effort and paycheck he gave me. Sure is nice to see his kids doing so well. Those pictures are great reminders of his character. A real treat seeing him again and thanks for sharing this insight on his journey. Always a pleasure to read these stories.

re: Tapit and the Derby Trail

Coldfacts — Wed, 22 Jan 2014 22:18:26 GMT

AnneM,

You do have a valid point regarding Tapit's progenies. They are good but lacking in durability. Horses sired by Giant's Causeway and the late Unbridles Song fall into this category as well.

Giant's Causeway and Medaglia D' Oro each bred 185 mares in 2009. They were not represented by a Derby starter in 2013.

re: Tapit and the Derby Trail

lunar spook — Wed, 22 Jan 2014 21:25:06 GMT

MARGARET ANN - TAPITS career record was 3-0-0 in 6 starts , this is not what I would classify as an "unreal" racehorse

re: Tapit and the Derby Trail

Three D Invitation — Wed, 22 Jan 2014 20:45:53 GMT

What a great article and pictures. Tapit looks very well. Thank you.

Always considered Tapit underrated in his racing days.

Nice to see him doing well in the breeding shed.

re: Tapit and the Derby Trail

Davids — Wed, 22 Jan 2014 20:32:20 GMT

Pedigree Ann, you may be right or you may be wrong about Tapit being able to get 10f. but if truth be told, unless they run clean you never really know.

Steve, have been waiting, and waiting for you to write about Tapit - he is the sire par excellence. His runners can be very quirky, especially the grays, but can the good ones run!! Georgious pictures of a beautiful horse.

re: Tapit and the Derby Trail

fb0252 — Wed, 22 Jan 2014 19:38:42 GMT

judging from those photos--do we need better horse

friendly barn construction?