Guess Who's Not Coming to Dinner?

re: Guess Who's Not Coming to Dinner?

tvnewsbadge — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 04:30:18 GMT

Horsin49 said "If it wasn't a fake track he would have won. I think that the Breeders Cup races need to be moved to another track."

Maybe he would have won, maybe not.

The real issue is that Jess Jackson got his head handed to him last year and now wants to race only when the the odds are stacked in his favor.

"Plastic" is just a straw man.

re: Guess Who's Not Coming to Dinner?

LDP — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 15:51:00 GMT

horsein49 and Nancy,

Praise Jesus, Praise the Lord. You both are SO RIGHT!!!

re: Guess Who's Not Coming to Dinner?

LDP — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 15:47:52 GMT

Gory,

MTB may not be the best horse of the crop but he is not mediocre. He was Canada's top two year old last year. The only bad race he ever ran was the Juvenile when coming over here to run on the Pro ride. In NM he was never allowed to run as a closer, he was always a stalker, even then he didn't run half bad garnering a fourth and a second. Once allowed to run as a closer he ran right by everyone in the Derby, then he runs second and third in the Belmont. He may not be the best but he's right up there with the top five at least, for the three year old males. On your Munnings prediction, if BD, arguably one of the top two 3yr old sprinters in the country couldn't wear her down, what makes you think Munnings, who normally does not take to the front can do it. If you think SB will do it what makes you think if MTB who is much more explosive couldn't catch her after she was worn down by BD, that SB can do it a shorter distance? She's proven she can rate or run up front. She has proven she can withstand testing fractions, then you have Monmouth which is speed favoring. This race screams RA will win.

re: Guess Who's Not Coming to Dinner?

gory — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 21:01:56 GMT

I have read some post giving the Haskell and Travers to Rachel Alexandra. LOL!!

C'mon, I mean yes she is very good but she is not that great. There is no doubt she can beat the fillies asleep but against the real boys? Yeah sure she won the Preakness but have a reality check here. She beat MTB who was 50-1 in the Derby. That should tell you how mediocre the boys are and if MTB got a good trip...well...

I heard Munnings is in the Haskell therefore I predict the bubble will burst come August 2, 2009.

re: Guess Who's Not Coming to Dinner?

charles — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 16:42:38 GMT

VERY INTERESTING...

I guess we have great dirt horses

I guess we have great turf horses

I AM VERY SURE WE HAVE JUST A GREAT HORSE..OH JOHN HENRY why don't you come back and tell these whiners how you ran on DIRT and TURF like a TRUE GREAT HORSE!! and not a surface specialist!!!

re: Guess Who's Not Coming to Dinner?

Horsin49 — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 21:55:15 GMT

I agree with Jess Jackson as far as synthetic tracks go. I know for a fact that if the Breeders Cup races move to a real surface the industry would have plenty of competition and support. It was hard for me to watch Curlin last year finish out of the money. If it wasn't a fake track he would have won. I think that the Breeders Cup races need to be moved to another track.

re: Guess Who's Not Coming to Dinner?

Nancy — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 20:18:49 GMT

Hi Steve,

I'm happy that many, or all of those mentioned above will not be at the Breeder's Cup. In my humble opinion the only legitimate surfaces are dirt and grass. It is what nature provided for a horses to run and walk on. If the race tracks properly maintained and restored the dirt or grass on a regular basis it would be safe for the horses and be cheaper in the long run. If tracks have skimped on the upkeep of the dirt and grass to save money - then that would factor in to the number of breakdowns. I'm not a vet or trained horsewoman, but other factors that perhaps lead to breakdowns are owners and trainers running horses who have sustained some injury - no matter how minor - or have an physical ailment. An example would be serious cracked quarters, or hairline fractures, temperatures, etc. I think due to all of the attention in the last year or two due to the serious breakdowns we have been witness to, etc., we have seen top owners and trainers opting not to run their run horses if the horse is not 100%. That is as it should have been in the past. They deserve that consideration, they have given us so much and get so little in return.

I think that scheduling the Breeder's Cup races two years in a row at Santa Anita was to force the other tracks around the country to conform to synthetics -- so someone could make a lot of money, someone was selling the idea the new surfaces are cheaper for the tracks to maintain. But I think they are finding out it is not cheaper in the long run especially where there a significant temperature changes.

For whatever their reasons for being in the game - tracks, owners and trainers owe it to the horses health and welfare by providing excellently maintained natural surfaces to run on. No one knows what the long term effects of breathing in particles from the synthetics will have on the horses, especially those who have racing careers longer than two years.

If they want the younger generations to take an interest in horse racing they need stop the posturing and rhetoric and put action where their mouths are.

I have great respect and admiration for Jess Jackson - we need more owners like him.

Nancy

re: Guess Who's Not Coming to Dinner?

eliz — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 16:48:11 GMT

When Polyturf first came out, it was intended to help the frozen surface from Turfway's brutal frozen track.

A novel and conventional idea it seemed to be the "new way" in our sport. As this concept spread the "artificial surfaces" were all the rage until problems surfaced and it was doing more harm than good.

Here's the deal, why mess with a good thing? I commend the above mentioned trainers and their horses not to run on these surfaces. I'm old school and don't believe in these surfaces but still believe in the good intentions from the frozen Turfway arena.

In my humbled opinion the old adage, "if it ain't broke don't fix it" seems pretty appropriate". If this was held true instead of everyone "jumping the gun" on these surfaces, we would more than likely see some great racing in this year's BC!

We will see some nice horses run, but it won't be the same "thrill" our sport could use in this day and age.

Good luck to all and we'll see you @ the races!

~eliz

re: Guess Who's Not Coming to Dinner?

Fire Slam — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 08:16:17 GMT

Matthew W and Others--

The Travers is a nice race. But don't event try to compare it to be as sought after as THE KENTUCKY DERBY. THERE IS THE KENTUCKY DERBY, AND THEN the Travers.

And yes, Saratoga is a very historic facility. Love the area and the old barns. But then again, a groom put it into prospective the other day, it kind of reminds him of the ELLIS PARK OF THE NORTH.

re: Guess Who's Not Coming to Dinner?

Mike Relva — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 02:25:59 GMT

MIKE RULLO

We NEED MORE individuals like Zenyatta's connections,not less. They are a credit to the game.

re: Guess Who's Not Coming to Dinner?

Scottish Racing — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 18:45:10 GMT

I do think that you have underated the 3YOs last year that finshed 1-2 in the Classic. They never just won because of Pro Ride. They were improving all season.

I don't think Sea the Stars will be coming over. Has John Oxx ever had a runner at the BC? Looking forward to seeing him at York this year. A great horse in the making.

re: Guess Who's Not Coming to Dinner?

Richard — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 17:30:50 GMT

Hi again,

Sorry, Tim G for the belated response -- we're 9 - 12 hours later here in Dubai. Actually, construction on Meydan was slowed not solely because of credit crunch (though you are correct that the Feds in Abu Dhabi loaned many unknown billions to Dubai to service its 82 billion construction debt), but because the original contractor wasn't meeting construction time goals and the contract was rebid. It's back under construction (along with the Dubai Metro, set to open in September to ease the traffic congestion that has affected past World Cup Days, and the Burj Tower, due for a December topping off) and is now supposed to be open for the 2010 Dubai World Cup on March 27. Oh, some more fuel for the fire: while there is no final publicly announced decision on the "dirt" surface, it's almost certainly going to be synthetic (though both tracks are ovals, unlike Nad Al Sheba's unusual triangle). They have been using Tapeta Footings for the training track for the past year. The decision is largely due to the lobbying of trainers like the very outspoken South African Mike De Kock, who claims the Europeans avoid The Dubai Winter Racing Carnival (January to March) because of the dirt surface at Nad Al Sheba. Also, virtually all the jockeys racing here head off to Newmarket after the Dubai season. So, the connection with the Europeans is growing stronger here -- sad to me considering it was the magnificent Cigar who first brought attention to Dubai racing when his connections gambled on the long trip to race in, and win, the initial Dubai World Cup. So this year's World Cup is in for a facelift on several levels.

re: Guess Who's Not Coming to Dinner?

theraceguy — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 17:14:52 GMT

I for one don't beleive it was a synthetic track that caused Curlin' poor performance last year.Off his last couple of races before the Breeders Cup he looked to me like a horse who was in decline and ready for a poor performance.Throw in the trip he got,and to me the outcome was very predictable.

re: Guess Who's Not Coming to Dinner?

LDP — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 16:53:19 GMT

Tim G,

I only asked Dray his opinion because i know he is high on both and was just wondering who he'd choose if put in that situation. It was not about handicapping at all. Personally i'd go with RA right now, mainly because QR has been off and i would want to see his comeback race before i put him over RA. If he does come back like he was earlier in the year, all i can see is a Ruffian vs Foolish Pleasure match race all over again. Both have the same style, both can rate, both can run real fast fractions and still have some kick. In my mind even with Zenyatta around, he if he comes back like he was is the horse with the best chance to beat RA. Maily due to their practically identical styles.

re: Guess Who's Not Coming to Dinner?

LDP — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 16:46:57 GMT

Tim G,

The fact that more ppl want to win the Travers is NOT my point. I am stating that through yes even ten years when you count Charismatic, the winner of the Travers doesn not get champion 3yr old, therefore as a race the count in votes, it's not one of them. I agree that more ppl want to win it, but then you go on to say many believe that race saves their season. Facts from the last ten year say otherwise. The haskell has and i made another error, there have been five horses that raced in the haskell that have gone on to be top three year old, 4 if you don't include PG. Another point was if you are dominant in the TC like those who didn't race pass it you still can wrap up the 3yr old honors. Smarty for example never raced past the Belmont, and even when Birdstone the horse who beat smarty won the Travers aswell Smarty still was crowned champion three year old. I will say that winning the Travers helps those who performed badly in the TC to climb back up the ladder, but after that you must beat older horses. The Travers w/o a doubt is a poppular race, but over history it does not hold as much weight as beating older horses or being dominant in the TC. I am not disrespecting it, only stating facts that i found from history. You can argue all you want that it is the more poppular race, in that i believe you are right. But historically it does hold wieght as much as other races do and is not a season saver. If it was you'd see Travers winners winning champion 3yr old. The facts are there and you can't argue with history.

re: Guess Who's Not Coming to Dinner?

Tim G — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 15:43:42 GMT

LDP, How many 3 year old classic runners have you had?

I cannot imagine you didn't want to run in and win the Travers.

Many owners, trainers etc feel that race has saved their season if they did badly in the TC races, whether they win it or even run well in it.

Some of the horses you mentioned didn't even run after the TC series. I think your only focus is who won 3 year old Eclipse champion?? I'm not sure because your comparisons don't jive with anything else.

The HaskeLL Invitational Handicap is a race by invitation only. Stacks the deck to assure what horses will be there and what the outcome will be.

It was established in 1968. Ancient history as far as some of you kids are concerned I'm sure.

It's had some decent winners years ago, but I'd say Point Given, War Emblem (maybe) and Big Brown last year are the major players in the last 8 years. The rest? Forgettable

'nice' horses.

As far as Stallion impact? Point Given.

The Travers? Established in 1864 and has been won by some of the greatest horses in TB racing. Alydar, Buckpasser, Easy Goer. Draynay listed some of the winners in the past 8 years. An impressive list. My point was: Ask an owner if he'd rather win the Haskell or win the Travers and 99.9% will tell you they'd prefer to win a 145 year old race than win a 40 year old INVITATIONAL Handicap. But hey, if you get invited to run at a million dollars, most won't say no.

You say The Travers is a 'nice' race that the owners can say "I won this race with this horse". Well, what in the heck is all this about?

It's competition, it's about WINNING specific races. Why else do you think we do it?

That comment has me shaking my head and wondering what you think racing is about for owners and/or trainers.

If it was just to have beautiful horses? We have those that we use for other things. If it's just to say we have race horses? We could run at any level (and sometimes do) and say 'we have race horses'.

If we do it for breeding purposes? It doesn't help much for geldings or mares. But the stallion impact from the Travers winners? Just look it up dear.

When you play at the top of the TB game in the USA there are just a small handful of races you'd give your firstborn to win (sorry SP you're expendable). At the top of those races are THE DERBY and a slight notch down (for some) The Travers. The Preakness is nice as is The Belmont, but obsession only comes for those races if the TC is the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

The BC Classic? Well only recently was it upped to a big purse and the BC has messed around with the BC races so much they've sort of mucked it all up. Who knows if the 25+ year old event will survive the financial fiasco.

I don't think I've bid on a single yearling or watched a foal drop and thought, now my dream is to win the Haskell, Preakness or Belmont with this baby. My first thought, the reason I will pay the money? There's my Derby winner, My dream of all dreams,TC winner and to ice the cake? My Travers winner.

Like I said before, people who actually run at the top of the game think that the Series should be the D, The P, The B and the Travers. Ask one, if you aren't one.

I'm not speaking about this from the perspective of getting the Eclipse Award (which is relatively new, subjective based on votes from writers etc and pretty political) I'm speaking of what gets horses into the Hall of Fame.

Ask the general public or the casual fan which race they've heard of.

There are races older than the Haskell which have disappeared from the racing map, with the fragility of the industry it can happen again.

As far as my last sentence to you? Just saying you asked DN(who is finally recognizing the importance of the Travers. To me it was sad that BB couldn't run in the race but he was already foot fragile by the time he ran his last race) about who HE thought would win between RA and QR (who is probably running in the Amsterdam per Todd just a couple days ago). My comment was that YOU seem to be a FAR better handicapper so why would you care what anyone thinks about who would win. That's all I meant.

On Del Mar? Was a beautiful track by the ocean, the Saratoga of the West. Now, it's a track with a difficult to manage surface that had super slow times, resorted to rock concerts to draw people in and will probably soon go the way of the rest of the Cal tracks (development, in an economy where it sits as a pile of rubble).

re: Guess Who's Not Coming to Dinner?

LDP — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 15:00:25 GMT

AnneM,

Though i do agree that the Travers for the past ten or so years has had little bearing on HOTY or top 3yr old, i have to disagree that it has lost it's stature. This year you will have the Derby winner alone entering. Last year you saw CJ win in a thriller, and i would go on to say he was the second best 3yr old last year. This race may not be a huge factor in Eclipse Award voting, but it almost always attacts the top horses in the 3yr old group. Dray mentioned all the great horses that chose that rest. Many of those horses were Grade one horses, top of their generation, and most had success on the TC trail. This is still a very important race, and to say it has lost it's stature and importance is just plain wrong.

re: Guess Who's Not Coming to Dinner?

AnneM — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 06:16:14 GMT

I am well aware of how important a race the Travers used to be. However, the last few years, it has been much less so and I think will continue to lessen in import.

The Haskell on the other hand is gaining in stature and importance.

And Del Mar always has great races -

re: Guess Who's Not Coming to Dinner?

LDP — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 04:01:03 GMT

Tim G,

my typo, i went back nine years. I've been up for only god knows how long, and barely got any sleep last night, so my head is not quite with it, basicly i'm real tire. Sorry for the typo.

re: Guess Who's Not Coming to Dinner?

Draynay — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 03:39:15 GMT

AnneM... Do you know anything about the history of the Travers at all ? Some of the past winners in the last 8 years are Point Given, Medaglia d' Oro, Birdstone, Flower Alley, Bernadini, and Street Sense. Not bad huh ? Do you still want to compare the 135 year old race with Del Mar ? Matthew W... why are you comparing Rachel Alexandra and her 6 for 6 wins including a Triple Crown win and a couple of Stakes records with Zenyatta's 2 wins in California Stakes races ? In Rachel's last 3 races against fellow 3 year old fillies she has won by nearly 50 lengths. Zenyatta is a good horse but against the boys in the Classic you will discover she has been protected and will have no real shot of winning that race.

re: Guess Who's Not Coming to Dinner?

LDP — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 03:30:12 GMT

Tim G,

Went back a few years and the stats show that only one horse in the last ten years has won the Travers by itself. That horse would be Bernardini. When i say by itself i mean the horse did not win both Haskel and Travers, Point Given did that. Here are the 3yr old champions and their major wins they compiled that year.

Tiznow: won the BCC and Goodwood beating older horses. He also won the Affirmed and Super Derby.

Point Given: Won the Preakness, Belmont, Travers, and Haskel.

War Emblem: won the Derby and Preakness, and the Haskel.

Funny Cide: Won the Derby and Preakness and won the JCGC against older horses.

Smarty Jones: Derby and Preakness, second in the Belmont.

Afleet Alex: Third in the Derby, won the Preakness and Belmont.

Bernardini: won the Preakness, Jim Dandy, Travers, and JCGC. Was second in the BCC.

Curlin: Won the Preakness, third in the Haskel, won the JCGC and BCC.

Big Brown: Won the Derby and Preakness, and won the Haskel.

These stats show you that when looking at the whole picture that the Travers and in some ways even the Haskel do not weigh in on who get top three year old. Two horses, including PG won the Travers in the last 10 years and went on to become top 3yr old. Four, including PG, went on to win the Haskel and become top 3yr old. It seems to me the more important thing to me is to either have won 2 jewls of the TC, win against the elders, or do both. In the whole scheme of thing the Travers is just what i said a nice race to win but with no bearing on top three year old, unless the dominant horse of the TC is in there.

re: Guess Who's Not Coming to Dinner?

Matthew W — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 03:04:19 GMT

Annie M How wrong you are! The Travers in MANY ways is the TRUE Derby! The Travers list is comparable--big time--to the Derby list! Saratoga has always been the KING of North America meetings....I was hoping they would go to the Travers with Pioneerof The Nile, as he ran his arse off on the mucky outside part of that awful Derby Track...they had that big ego and pushed him into the Preakness and he shut down.... and it cost them.... last year's winner Col John is a real nice, classy horse but I'm not sure where they are with him....he was "run up on" by Macho Again at top of stretch yet rallied top win Travers, it takes a real good horse to win this race....But how right you are about Del Mar this year! Zenyatta in The Clement Hirsch, we'll take it!!

re: Guess Who's Not Coming to Dinner?

LDP — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 02:59:33 GMT

Tim G,

In your latest post thank you, but i can't quite understand what your trying to get at in you last sentence, sorry, i can be, unless it's horses, be sometimes kinda dense.

re: Guess Who's Not Coming to Dinner?

LDP — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 02:55:36 GMT

Tim G,

That is why i said the race is a nice race to win, but honestly it's mainly because the trainer or owner gets to say oh, i won this race with this horse. The other thing it is good for is that it looks great on the resume of a new stallion. Is the race normally important for a three year old and for that championship, w/o a doubt, but at times, like last year no. CJ the winner of last years Travers which is one of the top two races for three year olds got his butt whipped in the voting, and wasn't even in the finallist for HOTY. This is my point. Basiclly the race that draws the best horse in that division are the ones that matter in that particular year. In fact the last two years actually the top three year old has come from the Haskel, not the Travers. I'm not sure, but weren't Smarty and Afleet Alex the winners of the 04 and 05 top three year old? If so than that means the top 3yr for 4 out of the last five years has not one the Preakness. It seems you must either win 2 jewls of the TC, or do what Curlin did and win one jewl and beat older horses/ win the Classic. This seems to be the recent trend. Now i could be wrong on Smarty and Afleet, and i'll go check. But if i am right my point is validated, that though the travers is a nice race to win it will not hold much wieght in the voting of top 3yr old. By the way, i know Bernardini won the Travers, but if you'll go farther you'll also see he did what Curlin did by winning a grade one race against older horses. Plus as i also mentioned, he was the dominant horse of that crop after the tragic breakdown of Barbaro. When he chose to race in the Travers that race became important to voters.

re: Guess Who's Not Coming to Dinner?

Matthew W — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 02:34:08 GMT

Steve I don't think either filly would lose their greatness if she lost to the other--and I know they would lose no $$ value--not one cent! So it makes sense to run them together, They should go to Zenyatta cuz she's undefeated....