Medal Count 'Live' Longshot

re: Medal Count 'Live' Longshot

The Deacon — Fri, 06 Jun 2014 08:02:36 GMT

Alex's Big Fan:

Linda in Texas:

The 5 weeks break between races vs. the 3 weeks applies if all things are equal. C. Chrome does look fresh, he has held his flesh well and I believe he is one smart colt. I love the throw back way he has been trained and raced. This isn't a race I want to wager money on, but only to enjoy and take in the moment. Many of us don't have 36 more years to wait for a Triple Crown winner (me included). Maybe if a nobody from nowhere wins the Triple Crown all of these so called brilliant breeders and owners will take note and do their respective future homework.

It's always been about the horses for me, always will be.

re: Medal Count 'Live' Longshot

Alex'sBigFan — Fri, 06 Jun 2014 02:13:07 GMT

Deacon,

That was very well stated. I agree with you, this feels different than Smarty, Big Brown, etc. There is something intangible about it this time.

I like your breeding philosophy as well. Yeah after this breeders may start looking at what is in the 2X or 3X, 4X out spots in the pedigrees first, look at what is farther out past the sires and dams. And I still think there is the factor of some of them being products of their environments and the learned human experience early in life, as in CC.

As far as the fresh horse thing goes I agree in general but in this case I think CC has been building stamina and there is something to be said for his continual momentum. I think CC's foundation will prevail over fresh in this case.

1. California Chrome

2. Ride On Curlin

3. Wicked Strong

Go Chrome!!!! All the way Chrome!!!

re: Medal Count 'Live' Longshot

Linda in Texas — Thu, 05 Jun 2014 15:57:50 GMT

The Deacon - Amen Brother.

Thank you Steve.

re: Medal Count 'Live' Longshot

doc holt — Thu, 05 Jun 2014 02:13:23 GMT

Mr. Haskins,

I have been trying to get info on someone's opinion of the work. The fractions were :34 1/5, :57 4/5 1:24, and 1:39 for the mile.

does anyone know if he worked in company?

re: Medal Count 'Live' Longshot

doc holt — Thu, 05 Jun 2014 02:03:50 GMT

Mr. Haskins,

Do you know if new York rack tracks will allow a trainer to use the drug sildenafil(Viagra)? It is used for pulmonary hypertension and a lot of Olympic runners use it. The side effects are that you will get an erection and you will need a nasal patch for nasal congestion. Kinda sounds like Cal Chrome in the Preakness?

re: Medal Count 'Live' Longshot

The Deacon — Wed, 04 Jun 2014 18:14:05 GMT

Well written Steve, I suppose a case can be made for every horse in the field. Fresh horses tend to do well in the Belmont Stakes especially if they are highly regarded. Having 5 weeks between races compared to 3 weeks is a big deal for a young horse.

Counting the Santa Anita Derby, C. Chrome has been on an incredible run. Very similar to the I'll Have Another campaign 2 years ago.

This year feels different, this isn't Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Smarty Jones, War Emblem, Funny Cide, or Big Brown. This just feels right this time.

I read Pat Forde's article on Yahoo sports discussing the modest breeding of Chrome. It's how regal this bloodline is once you get past the sire and dam.

If he wins Saturday this may change the entire way horsemen look at breeding their horses.......

Should be interesting............go Chrome.....

re: Medal Count 'Live' Longshot

Pedigree Ann — Wed, 04 Jun 2014 17:41:03 GMT

TJConway - They ALL have Northern Dancer somewhere in the pedigree, most of them more than one time. Having Northern Dancer in the pedigree is the default these days; it would be rare NOT to have him somewhere back in the 4th, 5th and/or 6th generation.

re: Medal Count 'Live' Longshot

English Pete — Wed, 04 Jun 2014 17:13:22 GMT

Steve, looking back at your Derby previews you seemed sure that Medal Count was more suited to synthetic or turf. I appreciate he showed well in the Derby, but that track is synthetic-friendly. honest question for you: do you really think he'll handle the Belmont surface?

re: Medal Count 'Live' Longshot

Giddyup — Wed, 04 Jun 2014 14:57:39 GMT

Steve picked Palace Malice to win last years Belmont at a nice price when most of the experts had given up on that colt. They would do well to pay closer attention to Steve's analysis this time around.

re: Medal Count 'Live' Longshot

Daniel Jividen — Wed, 04 Jun 2014 13:54:36 GMT

"If you are hardened enough to try to beat [California Chrome], you certainly have a number of options ..."

When did betting against an odds on favorite become "hardened"? "Sensible" or "fiscally prudent" might be better descriptive terms, Steve.

re: Medal Count 'Live' Longshot

Saratoga AJ — Wed, 04 Jun 2014 13:39:48 GMT

Rusty W.

re: Medal Count 'Live' Longshot

Saratoga AJ — Wed, 04 Jun 2014 13:33:43 GMT

After Wicked Strong's workout this week, I am more convinced than ever he poses the biggest threat to CC. Ride on Curlin will also be heard from. Will bet those two in all wagers, but won't be disappointed if CC wins the Crown.

re: Medal Count 'Live' Longshot

acerra — Wed, 04 Jun 2014 04:27:38 GMT

Steve,

I watched the Derby again just now, as I said B4 Romans always says he's got Horse, he cried wolf with Dullahan, even after he lost, same with Little Mike going to Dubai. Metal Count was getting tired when Danza cut him off, no way he was getting up for 3rd.

re: Medal Count 'Live' Longshot

acerra — Wed, 04 Jun 2014 03:03:53 GMT

Dale Romans always talks up his horses. Dullahan he talked up like once then once and even after bad showings....Romans is a pretender

re: Medal Count 'Live' Longshot

BelmontBarb — Wed, 04 Jun 2014 02:40:53 GMT

Thank you for interesting recall on Medal Counts' ability and Dale Romans confidence in him without losing respect for California Chrome but mostly for the confirmation of looking "on paper" for it does give a whole different interpretation and scenarios (one may call) of The Belmont Stakes as does pedigree of each of these contenders and their trainers and jockeys ~ and according to all these factors and then some, it does not appear that 1 1/2m Belmont Stakes has gotten any easier to predict or conclude before "Riders Up" and they head to the track. It is that moment that will be the challenge and every decision made will be in the hands of that rider and whats under him. It certainly will not be an easy task and toughness will have to support ability here to prevail. I like that we still are supporting California Chrome and that we have not become "hardened" to see him beaten. Sure there is Romans and let us not forget Clement and Tonalist - it's been quite some time since Christophe Clement has been in the Belmont and he never enters a horse if he hasn't got one ~ but this is The Belmont Stakes for them and a Triple Crown for California Chrome and all of us too.

Steve, so glad you wrote this up because it opened up so many variants that are not of the track but of possibilities that can be part of a California Chrome victory.

Thanks so much!

re: Medal Count 'Live' Longshot

Paula Higgins — Wed, 04 Jun 2014 00:49:38 GMT

It's nice to see Steve talking about the other horses. They are not getting a lot of print elsewhere and I certainly understand why. But as others here have noted, California Chrome could be up against it in the Belmont. It won't be as easy as the Derby and Preakness. Wicked Strong, Ride On Curlin and Commanding Curve worry me especially. But I do think CC will win. As threedog said, the ones running with him won't be able to keep up at the end and the ones in the back won't be able to catch up. I think misjudging the track is a real problem at Belmont. It has been noted on another site that the Belmont track turns don't feel like turns when they're racing. Interesting. Victor is going out early I heard and I am glad.

re: Medal Count 'Live' Longshot

Coldfacts — Wed, 04 Jun 2014 00:41:55 GMT

I am considering Matuszack as a live longshot. He has puzzled me for some time He was bred to have good tactical speed and stamina. His sire Bernardini has good tactical to complement his stamina. His dam sire Mr. Prospector needs no introduction. He has shown the stamina but not the tactical speed as he is always amongst the back markers in every start.

Matuszack reminds me a lot of Stay Thirsty who was also sired by Bernardini. Stay Thirsty came into his own with a 2nd place finish in the Belmont after a dull 12th place finish in the Derby. Matuszack seems to be a changed horse heading into the Belmont. His recent exercise spins must have left his trainer asking, Who is that horse? He breezed 59 plus twice. In his last work over 5F he came home in 23 for recoded time of 1:00 and a bit.

It appears the speed that was absent is suddenly present time to complement his stamina heading in the Belmont. Bernardini was a class act. He sired consecutive Travers winners. Mr. Prospector tail descendants have won the Belmont 14 times.

Bill Mott won the Belmont at 13-1 with the oddly name Drosselmeyer. I think the oddly named Matuszack has all the credentials to spring a big upset

He will be the freshest horse in the field with 7 weeks between starts.

re: Medal Count 'Live' Longshot

tjconway — Tue, 03 Jun 2014 22:14:33 GMT

Medal Count has a cool tongue; My pug dog's tongue sticks out too much just like Medal Counts.....maybe I'll buy my pug a "tongue tie" too!

Medal Count does have Northern Dancer in his bottom female line....take note folks!

re: Medal Count 'Live' Longshot

tjconway — Tue, 03 Jun 2014 22:09:19 GMT

The post position draw is important in this race. Nobody's gonna want 10 or 11. I'll wait, as I'm still on the fence about every horse in this race. It'll probably get down to "value". If Cal. Chrome is 6-5, I'm all over him......but, I'm Dreamin'!

re: Medal Count 'Live' Longshot

threedog — Tue, 03 Jun 2014 20:21:16 GMT

After watching Palace Malices Belmont, I feel that Chrome will probably duplicate it - only a little faster pace. Those running with Chrome early won't be around late and those laying back won't be able to catch him late.

re: Medal Count 'Live' Longshot

Rusty Weisner — Tue, 03 Jun 2014 19:01:36 GMT

Steve Haskin,

I'm going planning on making a big bet on Wicked Strong and am interested to hear your impressions of him at Belmont so far.

re: Medal Count 'Live' Longshot

food fight — Tue, 03 Jun 2014 18:57:50 GMT

Steve i love your angle with Medal Count he got a terrible trip in Kentucky derby and was still finishing even but more so than that i like his numbers he is coming up to a big effort and he is another durable colt in this field as 3 races in 5 weeks suggests.If he were not interfered with in the derby he may have been second that day. Coming off an 8 day rest and running another top Rag figure is a tell this colt has the talent to compete at the highest levels . The only knock i have here is Romans not working the colt over the track this is a massive oval and can be confusing to a horse and his rider especially when racing at the mile and a half distance.As far as his pedigree goes he looks like a horse that is designed to get 10 furlongs and perhaps further.There are not so many in the field that look to be bred to get 12 furlongs with the exception of Commissioner.Its been 36 years since the last triple crown winner and this is shaping up to be a very competitive Belmont. I was there when Sarava win it so i know anything is possible.

re: Medal Count 'Live' Longshot

Coldfacts — Tue, 03 Jun 2014 18:38:06 GMT

I liked Medal Count going into the Derby and will include him in my wager in the Belmont.

The Derby was such a strangely run race where only CC1 performed up to expectation. All three Derby starters that contested the Preakness recorded improved performances.

This leads me to believe that CC2 improved significantly off his LA Derby effort. I am also led to believe that Wicked Strong and Medal Count will produce significantly improved performances and this spells trouble for CC1 as they are fresher horses traing exceptionally well.

re: Medal Count 'Live' Longshot

Coldfacts — Tue, 03 Jun 2014 18:30:47 GMT

"Unbridled's Song hasn't been a prolific sire of 10f or longer sorts of horses, either”

Which are the stallions that have been prolific at siring 10F or longer sorts? Unbridled's Song was sired by a Derby and BCC winner. His dam sire Caro was 4th in the Arc.

Caro was the sire of Derby winner Winning Colors and dams sire of Preakness winner Red Bullet. He was also dam sire of two champion 2YO i.e., Unbridled's Song and Maria Mon.

Unbridled's Song sired Derby runner up, Eghts Belles and Belmont runner up Dunkirk. The 2013 Champion 3YO Will take Charge was sired by Unbridled's Song. He just missed winning the BCC and won the Travers.

Included in Unbridled's Song 100 plus stakes are many winner of G1 races over 9F. There are not enough 10F& 12F races in the US to evaluate a stallion’s capacity to sire 10F & 12F sorts. Unbridled Elaine won the Distaff over 9F but could easily have won at 10F.

re: Medal Count 'Live' Longshot

predict — Tue, 03 Jun 2014 18:26:27 GMT

Interesting article, it might take a heroic effort from California Chrome to beat the likes of Medal Count, Commanding Curve, Ride on Curlin, Samraat, Wicked Strong and Matterhorn. This possible field, to me looks like California Chrome will have his work cut out for him, and if he wins, then there should be no doubt that this guy is the real thing.

On the subject of Medal Count it is interesting to see he has Lucky Spell in his pedigree, as does California Chrome. Maybe there is something to that.