Haskin's Belmont Recap: Tone It Up

re: Haskin's Belmont Recap: Tone It Up

doctorfager — Tue, 24 Jun 2014 14:17:37 GMT

Coldfacts, first of all there's no way of telling what the fractions would've been had CC taken the lead...I do understand the other riders would've went after him, But you have to admit that being on the lead with CC changes the whole complexity of the race. He wouldn't have had all that dirt hitting him in the face for one thing, and it forces the other riders to possibly change their tactics. The race didn't materialize that way.I think with Espinoza not going on with his horse at the first turn hurt his chances.

re: Haskin's Belmont Recap: Tone It Up

Coldfacts — Mon, 23 Jun 2014 18:15:40 GMT

doctorfager,

Did CC lead in either the Derby or Preakness? With CC's speed the slow fractions should have been to his benefit. The colts that defeated him are quality horses.

Californian Chrome was very dominant in CA. Only one horse from the group he defeated in CA made the Derby field and he finished unplaced.

CC won a slowly run Derby in which some quality horses got bad trips. He was not overly impressive in the Preakness with only a 1 3/4L victory.

Why was he such an overwhelming favorite to win the Belmont against quality opponents with a freshness advantage?

He was gallant in defeat. If he was sent to the lead, what fractions would he have recorded? Do you seriously believe the riders on Tonalist, Commissioner and Medal Count would have allowed him to dictate proceedings upfront?

He will have other opportunities to prove he is better than Tonalist and Commissioner.

They were going to take the race to him no matter what.

re: Haskin's Belmont Recap: Tone It Up

doctorfager — Mon, 23 Jun 2014 16:27:00 GMT

I saw the last three triple crown winners. Trust me, the world was still the same after the event as it was prior to. The Triple Crown is hard to win, I'll agree with that, but it's supposed to be. I see nothing wrong with the current Triple Crown format. Leave it alone. Dont make it easier. As for the 2014 Belmont, well I find it hard not to fault Victor Espinoza for not going for the lead at the first turn. Instead he backed off and got a position along the rail following a slow pace. At that point there was nothing he could do, but wait it out! We all know the dismal outcome. California Chrome is a fast horse, a push button horse, he would've done better on the lead dictating the pace. There just wasn't any need to take him back, if he got into trouble he could've taken CC back if need be, makes sense to me; however,I wasn't riding him. Espinoza did what he thought best. I'm looking forward to the California Chrome's return to racing.....one more thing, Smarty Jones is still "America's horse"!

re: Haskin's Belmont Recap: Tone It Up

Rachel'sRay — Sat, 21 Jun 2014 19:04:26 GMT

Right on, DeltaLady!!

re: Haskin's Belmont Recap: Tone It Up

Mary — Tue, 17 Jun 2014 01:04:09 GMT

Okay so I'll put in my two cents. My bet was on Tonalist; obviously because he relished the track in the Peter Pan. Moving on,

AP Indy, Storm Cat, Gone West, Dehere, and Chief's Crown all have Secretariat as their broodmare sire, and therefore enjoy his dam, Somethingroyal. Hopefully in the future we will see this group of stallions combined in pedigrees that load up on the blood of Somethingroyal, particularly when the blood of her other fine son, Sir Gaylord is added to the equation.

Secretariat was a great broodmare sire, so if we want another triple crown winner, load the pedigree with this most magnificent race horse of all time.

Don't forget that Secretariat sprinted a mile and a half in the Belmont in 2:24. That record will stand forever. His daughters inherited his large heart.

re: Haskin's Belmont Recap: Tone It Up

Tommyboomer — Mon, 16 Jun 2014 14:20:29 GMT

Just popped back for a look at this article and the comments. Coldfacts is getting some "hate" here but I think his post on Tonalist is quite reasonable, and he'll have a lot to say in the 3YRO division.

It's hard to look in the rear view and asset what would have happened in the Derby had Honor Code, Top Billing, Constitution or Shared Belief been there. At 1 1/4 miles I think California Chrome would be very competitive with all these horses.

The slow Derby time was a function of CC stalking a slow pace. He did what he had to do to win. Every one of his other races would indicate he could have run that distance much faster if he wanted. In fact the 1 1 1/4 mile fraction of the Belmont was faster than the Derby.

As for the Belmont, whatever the breeding issues perceived around California Chrome, this Belmont was faster than 14 of the last 20. While track conditions may vary, it shows that even with so many injuries to perceived top horses, this crop may turn out to be good. I think it also show that California Chrome "could get" the distance, certainly compared to 90% of his Grade I level contemporaries over the last 20 years.

The last half of the year will be quite interesting. Right now, it doesn't appear that there is a horse in North America that can touch Palace Malice. He can do it all.

re: Haskin's Belmont Recap: Tone It Up

Sabrina — Mon, 16 Jun 2014 14:01:06 GMT

As for this year's Triple Crown races, In my opinion, had California Chrome broke from post 20, or any OUTSIDE post, like Big Brown did, he would have never won the derby. It would have been all over. That horse can only run his best on the rail just behind the pace....placed anywhere else on the track....he can't put forth his best effort. I've seen those kinds before. But, with all do respect, California Chrome simply was not bred for the Belmont Stakes. Ask yourself this question, if you were buying a yearling at the sales that you specifically wanted with the intention of running in the Belmont Stakes when it's 3....what sire would you be looking at to produce that distance runner: Lucky Pulpit, AP Indy or Tapit? Be honest...the horse bred for the mile and a half is the horse that won. This was a no-brainer. I would rather NEVER see another Triple Crown winner ever again if it means I have to watch a manufactured one run against a modified field. I saw all three in the 1970s, and I knew California Chrome was just not in the same class as an Affirmed or Seattle Slew. He tried...like the other eleven.

re: Haskin's Belmont Recap: Tone It Up

Zengal — Sat, 14 Jun 2014 17:14:33 GMT

Does anyone here know when Honor Code and Top Billing are returning to racing again? I have not been a big Tapit fan but I am impressed by Tonalist, maybe with the right breeding you can breed a good Tapit offspring. I remember Pleasant Colony.

re: Haskin's Belmont Recap: Tone It Up

Jen W — Fri, 13 Jun 2014 21:01:43 GMT

Coldfacts,

To me, the Derby would have been EXTREMELY different had Top Billing, Constitution and, especially Honor Code run. Interesting that you bring them up. I was discussing with one of my racing friends about what might have happened had Tonalist not come down with a lung infection before the Wood. We might have seen a different horse vying for the Triple Crown.

I think people get too wrapped up in the feel good stories and the emotions of it all. Yes, this is a sport of intense emotions, but to discount your opposition is a bit ludicrous. Some of the extreme power I saw from contenders who just didn't make the Derby, I believe really would have made quite the race for others! Honor Code was one of my favorites! It will be VERY interesting when some of these horses return as well. I'm looking forward to the second half of the racing year!

re: Haskin's Belmont Recap: Tone It Up

food fight — Fri, 13 Jun 2014 17:21:52 GMT

Now that we know that Commissioner came out of the Belmont with a chip in his left front ankle all those who have been posting about CC incident leaving the gate where he was stepped on and received a cut to the back of his hoof. Should now recognize the fact that Commissioner chipped an ankle in the race and just got beat a small head after racing on the lead and turning back challenge after challenge while running with a chip in his ankle is remarkable.In MY Opinion Commissioner run the best race of all the Belmont contenders now that i know he had chipped an ankle in that performance.

re: Haskin's Belmont Recap: Tone It Up

steve from st louis — Thu, 12 Jun 2014 19:53:55 GMT

Steve, one reason I believe you have such a following is that while all the other turf publicists concentrate on the horses you find a way to weave your tales featuring the people of the backstretch. Sometimes their stories are more fascinating than ones about some brillant copper colt or some old grey mare. Thanks for that.

re: Haskin's Belmont Recap: Tone It Up

El Kabong — Thu, 12 Jun 2014 19:23:34 GMT

Mr. Irwin,

I heard an interview with Mickey Taylor commenting on California Chrome's chances before the race and he voiced your same concern. He mentioned the last 3 crown winners were all based out of Belmont and he felt that had much to do with their success in the third leg. He liked Chrome and said he was a special colt, but said he would have to be very special to get that last race as a visitor.

re: Haskin's Belmont Recap: Tone It Up

El Kabong — Thu, 12 Jun 2014 18:37:46 GMT

Coldfacts,

Most of your posts are fine and contain information noteworthy to some folks on this site. That post, however, was a pile and your bitter defense of it is more deplorable. I just asked to you to check your ego at the door and display an ounce more of humility. I have asked for an ounce too much.

Censorship is "the cowards way out" and I won't join that team. Carry on my friend and rest assured, I won't attempt to hold the looking glass up to your posts again.

re: Haskin's Belmont Recap: Tone It Up

Quinnbit — Thu, 12 Jun 2014 17:37:57 GMT

ksweatman9

Always willing to take on a challenge. To explain why it would be difficult to change the timing of the triple crown races we must look no further than NYRA. Kentucky Derby, first Saturday in May is set in stone. Pimlico is on record begging for a change so that is a given. The ball is in NYRA's court. If they agree and it flops Pimlico can be blamed and that seems the norm these days, need someone to blame.

Should it prove fruitful NYRA could put in a some tunnels for tractor drawn trolley transport to the infield and the biggest party since Woodstock could happen on 4th of July weekend. Bump up the Wifi network and have three fourths of the betting via a smart phone app. Could another $10 million in handle get NYRA's attention?

Casual fans are indifferent, although the ability to hold their interest for eight weeks has already been questioned by those with much better knowledge of such things than myself. Modern day horse people would welcome it, traditional horse people would say you need to put an asterisk (*) next to the "EIGHT WEEKS TO GLORY" winners. I'm old school but I like forward thinking. The ringa ding ding of the first Saturday in May, first Saturday June, and first Saturday in July is great and it sounds branded on conception. This squeezes the Haskell and Jim Dandy slightly. The only other high dollar race affected is the Los Alamitos Derby which might draw a few west coast horses back home, no major damage done.

You mentioned the weather. It is more of a problem for the crowd than the horses. Perhaps getting a national brand bottled water or a hydration drink company-hello Gatorade to sponsor and give away water or hydration drinks would keep from having 10,000 people get heat stroke, "Houston we have problem"! Perhaps triage tents (MASH) can be set up and offer to fly in and house (RV camp) EMT'S from around the country to participate, this is borrowed from NASCAR. Bright side: review of historical high temperature data from 2004 forward shows only one day near 100 (99) degree first Saturday in July day, most were in the 80's.

10 to 1 should get some play if NYRA is willing to run.

Mother Nature and the racing gods are watching us.

Will there be a Citation Affirmed by our Secretariat and might they doom us with a perfect Seattle Slew!

re: Haskin's Belmont Recap: Tone It Up

ksweatman9 — Thu, 12 Jun 2014 17:23:28 GMT

I work in nursing, and there is a saying that "nurses eat their young" meaning they are hard on new nurses and other employees in the field. Well, nurses aren't the only ones guilty of "eating their young". Horse racing fans can be brutal critics of horses, riders,connections, everything, and everyone. "CC's jockey was responsible for a bad trip", "Matterhorn clipped Chrome with intent to injure him", "Chrome's owner is a raving maniac who's rant damaged the sport so severely it will never recover", "The Derby and Preakness winner was all hype", just a few of the accusations thrown out there in the aftermath of the Belmont. Are we being a positive force for the sport we propose to love? I wonder.

re: Haskin's Belmont Recap: Tone It Up

Coldfacts — Thu, 12 Jun 2014 17:09:10 GMT

California Chrome performed much better than I expected in the Belmont. I fully expected him to be beaten but by a margin > 1 3/4L. He is a far better colt than I previously assessed.

Several issues have been cited that could have contributed to his loss. The incident at after gates opened; the pocket in which he was placed by Tonanlist and his rider’s decision not to go for the lead in what turned out to be modest fractions. Did the aforementioned contribute to his defeat? I believe the aformentioned might have contributed, but marginally. However, I believe some of his opponents were better bred for the distance and were grossly underrated.

Of those I considered better bred for the distance, Tonalist was my selection to win. In my opinion he had the best credentials going in. I was not worried about his 4 starts as Summer Bird and Dunkirk entered the 2009 Belmont with 4 starts as well and finished 1-2. Why did I consider him to have the best credentials?

The colt covered an average 8.625F in his first 4 starts including two 9F races, compared to CC's average of 5F in his first 4 starts with two 5.5F races. CC built on the modest start to his racing career and went to Derby and Preakness glory. Tonalist had a far more impressive start to his career and in my opinion had the greater capacity to be a special colt. CC might have entered the Belmont with 12 starts as compared to Tonalist 4, but from day one Tonalist was exposed to the tiring effect of lactic acid.

His dam sire Pleasant Colony was also major draw for me. When a broodmare sire with over 100 stakes winners is associated with a colt like Tonalist, the sky is the limit. Pleasant Colony sired Belmont winner Colonial Affair. A victory by Tonalist would have allowed Pleasant Colony to joint Seattle Slew, Secretariat, Deputy Minister and Gone West as stallions that have been both sire and broodmare sire of a Belmont winner.

Tonalist’s performance in the Pater Pan sealed the deal for me. Rarely does a horse with his pedigree and size set fractions of 23, 46, 1:10 and 1:35 and then draw off under a hand ride and is then geared down. That was share class on display. Assuming everything went perfect for CC; are there any fractions he could recorded on the lead to dismiss the advancing of Tonalist? Unless he was capable of recording a final time of 2:227 he was never going to get rid of Tonalist.

Several top class 3YOs did not contest the TC series i.e., Shared Belief, Constitution, Top Billing, and Honor Code. Constitution defeated Tonalist handily when they met. Behind them was Wood winner Wicked Strong. In retrospect, would a time of 2:03.66 defeat Shared Belief, Constitution, Top Billing, and Honor Code handily in the Derby? Highly unlikely!

re: Haskin's Belmont Recap: Tone It Up

Linda in Texas — Thu, 12 Jun 2014 17:03:03 GMT

For El Kabong and Barry Irwin. Agree with El Kabong, always and Mr. Irwin's comments as well as many others. I also admire California Chrome now even more. The seconds wasted recouping from his near drop to the dirt after the behemoth Matterhorn stepped on his right front hoof and the almost critical issue with the scrape near his tendon, I wonder had those two incidences not happened, where would CC have been at the wire? Zen's Auntie could answer that for me i know. Where is Zen's Auntie, you are truly missed here.

Thank you Steve i need to print out this article to keep as a reminder of life's little setbacks and how to handle them.

ABF Fed Exed a Program From The Belmont to me and i will be buried with it along with the ashes of my special pups like my brother did. Just saying my admiration is rather deep for the 'people loving' horse who won The Kentucky Derby 2014 and The Preakness 2014. Not too shabby for a California Bred. He will be back.

And special congratulations to Tapit, sire of Tonalist! Chalk up a Belmont Win Tapit to your sire's record, and may you live a long peaceful life. Linda

re: Haskin's Belmont Recap: Tone It Up

Barry Irwin — Thu, 12 Jun 2014 11:50:39 GMT

I bet Tonalist, but after the race was more impressed with the performance of California Chrome, based on how little he got beat after being chopped down at the start by a horse that had absolutely no business being in the race. When we do have another Triple Crown winner, he/she will be a Belmont-based runner, because it is very difficult for a horse trained elsewhere to win the Belmont in a Triple Crown bid.

re: Haskin's Belmont Recap: Tone It Up

Coldfacts — Thu, 12 Jun 2014 10:36:06 GMT

El Kabong

Let put into context my initial submission that was resubmitted. It was part of an exchange with Steve from St Louis. The term list was used by that contributor and in my response I referenced the term. The list actually was in reference to his Derby Dozen. Consequently, when I specified that the horse I liked that was excluded from his list it related to his DD and not horses cited in the blog in general. I think you have rushed to judgment.

Now to address the issue of insulting and snubbing the moderator! I might not shower Mr. Haskin with praise like many of his supporters. However, I have nothing but the highest regard for the moderator. Why would I choose to insult Mr. Haskin when all submissions are posted at his discretion or that of his nominee? What’s the logic in biting the hand the feeds you? Such an act would be ludicrous.

“First you try to drag someone else down to your level”

What exactly is my level? Is it lower than most? Am I a misfit for this blog? Am I not allowed to submit by views just like every other supporter of Mr. Haskin? I merely cited a quote that I viewed as comparable to mine. The reference quote represented an early interesting in Tonalist. If you deem it not comparable, you have my apology. Nothing sinister was intended.

“You mention a multitude of horses along the trail and then revert back,”

The Derby Trail is comprised of many horses. The moderator’s Derby Dozen Blog reflects 12 that make the cuts each week and a litany of other horses listed as knocking At The Door. Does the DD Blog reference a multitude of horses? If the answer to aforementioned question is, Yes. Then I am being accused of what process entails. Did Mr. Haskin reference his initial quotes about California Chrome when the colt started to destroy his opposition?

You like so many other contributors who find me so repugnant, have the option to bypass my submissions and spare yourself the agony of having to read them. You might not be aware but some of my submissions are never posted. I have never questioned the moderator’s decisions. He determines what is appropriate for display on his blog. If any of my submissions are displayed I am of the opinion that they met the display criteria.

Why don’t you do yourself a favor and request the moderator to block my submissions? Others have done so in the past?

Peace!

NB: The word genius should never be used in reference to one such I.

re: Haskin's Belmont Recap: Tone It Up

Needler in Virginia — Thu, 12 Jun 2014 04:38:31 GMT

As always, thoughtful and insightful, Steve. You always leave us with loads to consider. But isn't it interesting that no one ever remembers the Belmont spoilers as anything other than that? Me included. I'll always remember this as the year of California Chrome, NOT Tonalist, and will do my best to forget CC's caught quarter and the cut from Medal Count. I'll keep following CC and cheering him on 'cause I DEARLY LOVE WATCHING HIM RUN! Tonalist? Not so much.

I was born the year Assault won the Triple Crown and in my lifetime have seen the tone of the TC change from a true test of a small group of the best 3 year olds fighting one another to prove a huge point into just a series of rich races........full stop. Now we have "new shooters" showing up for one race. If the TC is so special, and the Derby has requirements to even get in the gate, why not the other two, as well?

Go down another rabbit hole? Nope, not me. I agree with what Bill Nack said, as quoted by Monica, and think the TC is a non-starter for 21st century Thoroughbreds. So they're not gonna get me again. I'm too old for this and will choose more wisely which horses I follow.

re: Haskin's Belmont Recap: Tone It Up

SoloSolo — Thu, 12 Jun 2014 01:33:28 GMT

Quinnbit---

Very well-reasoned comments; you really summed up the essence of the Triple Crown with appropriate analogies. I agree...the Triple Crown is supposed to be really, really difficult. If not, it really wouldn't mean much, would it?

re: Haskin's Belmont Recap: Tone It Up

Alex'sBigFan — Thu, 12 Jun 2014 01:29:34 GMT

DeltaLady,

Great post and very well said! I agree, this takes nothing away from Victor and Chrome. I have more respect for Chrome now than before, he gave it his all while injured. I have respect for Victor too, he went with what he had and did not overdo it.

KSweatman / Prepster,

Agreed too. They need to study changes in the breed since Affirmed won the TC in the 70's and those changes include medications like Lasix, lighter training schedule and campaigns, early retirements, etc. How many thoroughbreds were running in the 1970's and how many breakdowns were there vs. today? Did Secretariat and Affirmed receive Lasix in all those races? They need to look at the evolvement of the breed since the 1970's, weight in all the factors, and tweak the TC schedule accordingly. I don't see where a week more between the Preakness and Belmont and/or Derby and Preakness hurts. The incentive idea to run in all 3 TC races is good too since it seems it's these "greener" horses causing all this trouble in the Belmont with heel clipping incidents. Didn't one of them bump into MMM who then clipped Animal Kingdom too? Maybe a more seasoned field would stop some of this heel clipping?????

Congratulations to Tonalist. I'd like to see him ship west to face California Chrome in the BCC now. Tonalist may be a good horse but I think California Chrome borders on greatness, 6 wins in a row including two legs of the TC, and fighting a fresher horse while injured in the Belmont, that's great enough for me.

Get well soon Chrome, enjoy your homecoming at Los Alamitos. You gave us quite a ride on this TC trail and we'll never forget it.

re: Haskin's Belmont Recap: Tone It Up

DontHateMe — Thu, 12 Jun 2014 00:17:31 GMT

Uhm......Steve, unless I missed it, I have not heard you comment on Victor's horrible ride! Why is it that all of the experts from California have said "CC got a good ride". What? Are you kidding me? Is Victor from California? What id the deal with this subject? Only Randy Moss has questioned Victor's ride. I would like your HONEST opinion. Please!

re: Haskin's Belmont Recap: Tone It Up

TerriV — Thu, 12 Jun 2014 00:15:53 GMT

I love your post, Deltalady. So well said! I have to admit to being hugely disappointed. I really believed he could do it. Under the circumstances, chrome ran an amazing race. It was a gallant effort and I am proud of his courage. He will have a fan in me for the rest of his life.

Steve, your story on Tonalist was beautifully written. When I'm not so disappointed I'll read it again.

I was also thrilled with Commissioner - I fell for AP Indy on a visit to Lane's End and always support his foals. Won some money on him too.

I wish I could figure out how to feel about the Triple Crown debate. I can see merit in so many different ideas, including leaving it alone. But, one poster hit the nail on the head by saying racing needs to create fans outside of the Triple Crown. It's pretty clear that the secret is falling in love with a horse.

re: Haskin's Belmont Recap: Tone It Up

Matt Helm — Wed, 11 Jun 2014 20:43:03 GMT

@Sail On,Tonalist by Tapit,Commissioner by AP Indy,Medal Count by Dynaformer.Nothing under the radar about 3 horses with superior pedigrees to Califirnia Chrome.All three by world class stallions and all three are worth more than CC at stud.As for the NBC coverage they are the only network who even wanted to carry horse racing.Even ABC/ESPN had enough so that's why the coverage is worse than a public acces cable show.