Viva Travers!

re: Viva Travers!

Coldfacts — Mon, 25 Aug 2014 21:23:25 GMT

Many thanks guys for your kind compliments.

Even a broken clock is right at some point.

re: Viva Travers!

Jersey Girl — Mon, 25 Aug 2014 18:50:00 GMT

Just wanted to add my congrats to Coldfacts. Your V.E.Day Travers prediction was the last thing I read before leaving the house on Saturday to place a few selections. When I read it I thought, "H'mmm, I guess we'll soon see." And we did. Well played. Congratulations.

re: Viva Travers!

Coldfacts — Mon, 25 Aug 2014 17:47:57 GMT

Linda in Texas,

"Now how did you come out at the windows?"

All fruits are ripe!

re: Viva Travers!

Ted from LA — Mon, 25 Aug 2014 13:08:17 GMT

Coldfacts, "There is only one 'Legend' that writes on this blog and he needs no highlight as we all familiar with his legendary work."

That's kind of you, but you're making me blush. Great call on the Travers.

re: Viva Travers!

Coldfacts — Mon, 25 Aug 2014 12:48:52 GMT

A few points from my post-race analysis of the Travers:

Bayern: I expected the extra 8lbs and additional furlong to adversely affect his performance but could not envisage a last place finish. I eliminated him from the top spot but did not relegate him to last. I considered his ML as travesty in handicapping.

Tonalist: This colt made it apparent that the Saratoga strip was not to his total liking. He was a different horse at Belmont Park. He flattened out in the stretch of the Jim dandy and did the same in the Travers. I think it is time to remove the blinkers as stalking and failing to carry through a gallop in my book requires an equipment change. I eliminated him from the top spot and he validated my assessment that he would have been competitive without actually winning.

Kid Cruz: I saw no path to victory for this colt. The Saratoga strip does not suit his running style. He is a grinding closer who capitalized on pace runners that are come back to the field. Those guilty of same in the Travers were passed. He is a cut below those in the top echelon at this point in his career.

Wicked Strong: Where were his Jim Dandy and Travers efforts when I selected him to win the Derby? The final time for the Derby was a pedestrian 2:03.66. Have the blinkers made such a difference? His stride pattern in the final furlong of Jim Dandy suggested he could be vulnerable against a top class closer with the extra furlong of the Travers. He had no excuse as he was beaten by a better horse on the day and probably better horse in general.

V E Day: Another top 3YO from the Mr. Prospector sire line has emerged. The A P Indy sire line has been the dominant throughout 2014 largely due to the early retirement of New Year Day and injury to Shared Belief. Well is appears the MP. sire line is poised to reclaim its rightful place at the top in the second half of the year.

V E Day is an exceptional talent. In his Travers victory and 1st in a graded race, he defeated 5 horses that in combination contested 22 graded races with a combined 10 victories to their credit. One of the horse holds a victory over the top rated 3YO male in the country. It not easy to win races and this colt is on a 4 race win steak with all four races won on different surfaces i.e., sloppy, turf, fast and upgraded from good to fast. (must have some residual moisture)

Will he be able to match strides with California Chrome and Shared Belief on the speedway of SA Park? This colt has proven he can run on any surface a true testament to his versatility.

Will Take Charge won the Traverse in 2:02.68 and was beaten on the speed way in 2:00.72. V E Day appear to be a better horse than WTC at the comparative stage of their careers. The final time for the 2014 Travers was 2:02.93.

re: Viva Travers!

Davids — Mon, 25 Aug 2014 07:22:19 GMT

How to loose races - ride like this.

re: Viva Travers!

Linda in Texas — Mon, 25 Aug 2014 04:37:03 GMT

Must say Congratulations Coldfacts. You nailed that on the head, i wondered where you were going with all the info, until you posted your pick. Now how did you come out at the windows?

Everyone is all hopped up over Shared Belief and rightly so. But remember Game On Dude came in ahead of (beat)6 horses and set the pace along with Mystery Train, not bad for an old fella? And who was that mystery horse? Where will we see him again?

Thanks Steve. Forgot to say that in my last post. So thanks again.

re: Viva Travers!

smarie — Mon, 25 Aug 2014 00:36:13 GMT

Coldfacts, your analysis of the Travers' starters and your pick of V.E. Day who did indeed win the race was very impressive. So many people cannot see beyond the favorites in any race. You however, can and did. Congratulations. Well done.

re: Viva Travers!

Ranagulzion — Sun, 24 Aug 2014 23:12:32 GMT

Coldfacts:

Your handicapping of the Travers to come up with that 19-1 upset winner, V E Day, was nothing short of brilliant. Keep up the good work.

re: Viva Travers!

Coldfacts — Sun, 24 Aug 2014 14:07:21 GMT

Ranagulzion

"You were gung-ho about Tonalist going into the Jim Dandy and expressed skepticism at the running of that race"

Tonalist was my firm selection for the Belmont. Regarding the Jim Dandy, I was more highlighting his superiority over Wicked Strong rather than gung-ho about him.

Any race that Kid Cruz can lead from the gates is odd.

I am sure you are familiar with the quote ‘there is no man blinder than he one who refuses to see.’ With young developing horses one cannot be fixated and blinded to cold facts. The analysis of cold facts will vary between contributors but it is important that analysis be undertaken objectively and devoid of emotions.

V E Day’s resume reflected exceptional routing ability complimented by unprecedented versatility. This led me to conclude that there was no challenge too big for him. Two 9F races on two different surfaces in the same month is unheard of these days. Three a consecutive victory on three different surfaces rarity.

One does not have to believe in history but one should equally not be dismissive of historic facts. Unraced Deputy Minister mares have produced three winners and one runner-up of the longest race on the calendar for 3YOs. Stallions who are grandsons of Mr. Prospector have been the most dominant in the Triple Crown history. Combine these two historic factors and apply them to a fast developing, talented and versatile 3YO and he will fit the profile of a Travers winner.

Many might consider it twisted logic or logic that beats the mind. Irrespective how the logic was viewed, V E Day fitted profile of so many past champions that is was hard not to recognize same.

I provided my rational for selecting him. I was recently advised that I should desist from providing handicapping/evaluating comments.

I overwhelmingly believe that sharing is caring.

re: Viva Travers!

AngelaInAbilene — Sun, 24 Aug 2014 12:33:25 GMT

Congratulations to Coldfacts!

re: Viva Travers!

Coldfacts — Sun, 24 Aug 2014 12:09:22 GMT

Arch the phoneman,

You are either being overly kind or guilty of a little sarcasm. There is only one 'Legend' that writes on this blog and he needs no highlight as we all familiar with his legendary work.

If I am at all legendary it is for causing controversy and generating bitterness and disgust with my opposing views.

If your statement was submitted in utmost good faith, it has been noted with the utmost of humility.

re: Viva Travers!

trackjack — Sun, 24 Aug 2014 04:22:43 GMT

Coldfacts--Good call on the Travers. At 19-1 my hat's off to you.

re: Viva Travers!

Arch the phoneman — Sun, 24 Aug 2014 02:37:38 GMT

Coldfacts does it again. The legend grows.

re: Viva Travers!

Windolin — Sat, 23 Aug 2014 22:52:11 GMT

Oh well...life goes on. Hope Bayern is ok and a hearty congrats to VE Day. You were spot on Cold Facts.

Wonder how the HOY is going to play out? Could this be the year for another filly or mare to win...like Close Hatches? Guess a lot will depend on how Chrome and Palace Malice does and the Breeders Cup races.

re: Viva Travers!

Steel Dragon — Sat, 23 Aug 2014 22:50:27 GMT

Way to go, Coldfacts!

re: Viva Travers!

Bill Two — Sat, 23 Aug 2014 22:40:20 GMT

Helluva pick, Coldfacts! You are the man, my friend.

re: Viva Travers!

nobledancer — Sat, 23 Aug 2014 17:49:56 GMT

I would have paid little attention, if any, to Viva Majorca prior to reading this article. He is now in my virtual stable and I will look forward to following his future progress and his efforts today. I thoroughly enjoyed your run-down of the Travers, Steve, and gained an entirely new and better perspective of the race.

re: Viva Travers!

Sail On — Sat, 23 Aug 2014 15:59:25 GMT

Looks to me that Bayern will set a fast pace out of the gate and that several horses will show up at 1 1/8 miles to contest the outcome. I like Wicked Strong, as Commanding curve may be trapped on the rail.

re: Viva Travers!

Floridabred — Sat, 23 Aug 2014 15:30:54 GMT

Thank you for a great article !. It'd be great to see Mary Lou smile, and Viva Majorca (or Mallorca, if you like to wear pearls) sounds very interesting.

What ?, it's raining at Saratoga as we speak and Coldfacts mentioned who does and who doesn't like sloppy tracks ?. I'd better go out to Saratoga's website to check track conditions. (Oh, The Racing Gods are So Strict ! ie: "Hope for the best, expect the ...."). Best wishes for all !.

re: Viva Travers!

geldedridgling — Sat, 23 Aug 2014 15:21:33 GMT

I don't believe Tiago nor Cape Town have thrown a 10 furlong stakes winner, so regardless of who they are related to or what they did on the race track it's no cinch that more ground will suit Viva Majorca in grade 1 company. The winner of the Curlin, however, does have a sire and damsire that both have thrown multiple 10-12 furlong horses winners in grade 1 company. Plus, he picks up the top jockey at Saratoga, while Leparoux (Viva Majorca's jock) hasn't fared that well this Saratoga meet. Sometimes the long shot you seek is right in front of you if you're looking.

re: Viva Travers!

Ranagulzion — Sat, 23 Aug 2014 13:33:27 GMT

Coldfacts:

You were gung-ho about Tonalist going into the Jim Dandy and expressed skepticism at the running of that race, yet you've jumped ship so quickly. With the chance of a sloppy track Tonalist's chances should be way more imposing. Where's your conviction bro?

re: Viva Travers!

Coldfacts — Sat, 23 Aug 2014 11:59:38 GMT

The weather might play a major role in the outcome of the Travers as it is likely to be raining at Saratoga at this moment. If the track comes up sloppy/muddy it could negatively impact certain horses and be a blessing for others.

Commanding Curve: Debuted at Saratoga on a sloppy track and was beaten 23L

Wicked Strong: : Debuted at Belmont on a sloppy track and was beaten 51/2L

Charge Now: Contested the Iowa Derby on a sloppy track and did not raise gallop and was beaten 6 1/2L.

V E Day won his debut on a sloppy track closing 7 1/2L and finished in hand.

Viva Majorca: Won his race preceding the Curlin on a sloppy track and finished in hand.

Tonalist: His most impressive race was the Peter Pan contested on a sloppy track.

Mr. Speaker won both his races that were contested on good turf.

V E Day’s most impressive victory was his MSW victory on a sloppy track. He trailed the field by 7L. He then launched his challenge in the stretch against the rails and had to be switched sharply close home due the tiring leader drifting left. He blew by the leader and finished in hand. He then returned to turf in his next start to win a 9F race in 1:47.74.

English Channel scored his most impressive victory on a soft turf when he destroyed the field in the Breeders Cup Turf Classic. Curlin’s most impressive victory came in the BCC on a sloppy track. Both horses were sired by Smart Strike. Curlin’s dam was sired by Deputy Minister.

V E day should just love a sloppy/muddy track. It will be a difficult task to defeat top 4 but I believe he has the best credential to so.

A ML of 15-1 merits a reasonable across the board wager.

re: Viva Travers!

Coldfacts — Sat, 23 Aug 2014 11:47:25 GMT

V E Day is an extremely interesting colt. Rarely does a 3YO’s record reflect four 9F races in its first 5 starts. He has to be one of the most versatile 3YO seen this season.

The colt’s first two starts were losing efforts over 9F on turf. He then won his 3rd start on a sloppy dirt track as a result of his intended turf race being moved to the main track. He was back on turf for his 4th start and 3rd over 9F and won. Then it was back to dirt for the 9F Culin and another victory.

His last 3 starts that resulted in victories were contested on a sloppy dirt track, a firm turf course and a fast dirt track. There is clearly no challenge too big for this colt. He contested two 9F races on two different surfaces in July and has not missed a beat in training since based on published works.

V.E Day was sired by the exceptional turf router English Challenge whom I consider above Wise Dan. One is forced to get excited about V E Day’s unraced Deputy Minister dam. Curlin, Sarava and Japanese champion Kane Hekili were produced from unraced Deputy minister mares. This colt is clearly bred to run all day. English Challenge is a grandson of Mr. Prospector and belongs to an elite group of sires. The Mr. Prospector line horses can never be discount when they show ability and this colt has shown a ton plus versatility.

I consider him the best suited for the distance of the Travers. With the expected honest pace to be set by Bayern and company, he will be the one with the most energy in the last furlong. If he is good enough he will win. If the tracks come up sloppy it will even be better.

V E Day is my selection to upset in the Travers.

re: Viva Travers!

trackjack — Sat, 23 Aug 2014 02:45:33 GMT

Linda in Texas--Thanks for those words. Saratoga is filled with so much tradition. Maybe next year!

Good luck to all.