Early Lowdown on the BC Classic

re: Early Lowdown on the BC Classic

Coldfacts — Sun, 21 Sep 2014 14:31:49 GMT

The Deacon,

Coldfacts: As usual your assessment of California Chrome is personal and off base. Do you really think anyone really cares what you think. I find your posts, laughable for the most part.

You would be surprised at the number of contributor that read my submissions despite the fact they disagree with most what they cover.

Your champion was off his game in the P A Derby. My challenge to the conclusion that he is either the best or second best 3YO in the country does not seem so off based now.

I find it interesting the everyone cares about glowing comments about CC and do not care about ones that present a balance perspective.

If ventured to submit a glowing comment about California Chrome you would not be convinced it was genuine. Consequently and I will never be seen in a less despicable light in your eyes.

Joint the list of contributor that have requested that my submissions be not posted.

Your opposition to opposing views has reached a chronic level. You need to broaden your horizon.

re: Early Lowdown on the BC Classic

Davids — Sat, 20 Sep 2014 07:57:22 GMT

Steve, at this stage, I am more intrigued about the new surface at Santa Anita than who the main protagonists may be. Moreover, I believe that Quinnbit makes a very valid point in comparing the racing schedule of California Chrome's to Shared Beliefs. How good would Shared Belief have been running in the Belmont Stakes after competing in the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness?

If the new Santa Anita surface is fair to all then the Breeders' Cup races should be enthralling.

re: Early Lowdown on the BC Classic

Racingfan — Fri, 19 Sep 2014 10:28:46 GMT

Well, the Classic pictured has certainly changed now with the retirement of Game On Dude. Very sad news for me as I was hopeful he would somehow get it done this year!

re: Early Lowdown on the BC Classic

JayJay — Fri, 19 Sep 2014 02:18:21 GMT

Dr. D : Actually, I was a bit surprised at the retirement announcement for GoD, I'm not sure he's really done but I think Shared Belief's performance in the Pacific Classic may have actually prompted it, maybe the connections thought, it's time to hand it over to the young guns (CC and SB). I agree that the retirement is well deserved and although his last few races weren't the "talk of the town" type races, he gave a lot of us a great ride. I still remember when he won the SA Handicap this year, he looked strong, like a beast and yes, it was probably aided by the speed bias but watching him run and run and run faster and faster... that was great.

Is he one of the greats (gelding) ? I don't know, but to me, he is great...he is MY generation of the great geldings of the past.

re: Early Lowdown on the BC Classic

Quinnbit — Thu, 18 Sep 2014 23:53:39 GMT

Coldfacts,

Thanks

re: Early Lowdown on the BC Classic

Dr Drunkinbum — Thu, 18 Sep 2014 23:50:01 GMT

JayJay

My first inclination after Game On's last race was that maybe it is time for him to retire. It's a good decision. The warrior has given enough and can walk away with something left, without leaving every ounce of pride and strength on the battlefield which could have happened in this year's BC. Not a storybook ending but not a tragedy either. He ran some of the strongest races of all time including this year's Big Cap, 10f in 1:58.17 for a seven year old, an age group record that may never be broken. Have a great retirement Game On, you earned every penny and deserve the best recliner money can buy. I'm almost certainly going with the two W's on top in the BC - Will Take Charge and Wicked Strong.

re: Early Lowdown on the BC Classic

Coldfacts — Thu, 18 Sep 2014 19:22:27 GMT

Quinnbit,

The 'Not' in the sentence should have been deleted before submission. Kindly ignore same.

re: Early Lowdown on the BC Classic

Quinnbit — Thu, 18 Sep 2014 12:36:33 GMT

Coldfacts,

"While your analysis is noteworthy I hardly believe it has not pinpointed the real reason for the slow final time."

"I hardly believe it has not"

What exactly is the above phrase trying to say?

Please enlighten me.

re: Early Lowdown on the BC Classic

JayJay — Thu, 18 Sep 2014 05:04:16 GMT

Coldfacts : Here you go again...my statement of the best 3YOs in the country is supported by COLD facts, their record. You're countering that statement with your VE Day horse who won the Travers, his first G1 win. You said the same things over and over and over again pre and post Belmont, that Tonalist was better than Chrome. It didn't take but one race for you to jump off that one. You said he was much much better than Wicked Strong, WS beat him twice fair and square.

It's easy to contradict people when you don't have to take responsibility for when you're wrong. The fact is, you were wrong about Tonalist. He wasn't better than Chrome, his record shows it. I still believe that the Belmont distance helped him and being a fresh horse. He ran two races on a normal schedule and he failed to win and barely hit the board in the Travers.

One more thing, stop demeaning people who are passionate about horses, there are people here who loves horses, loves racing and not normally bettors. To question their "emotional attachment" to horses is just plain stupid and insulting. They are allowed to love and root whoever they like, that's not for you to question.

re: Early Lowdown on the BC Classic

Racingfan — Thu, 18 Sep 2014 01:50:42 GMT

ColdFacts: I like your assessment of Itsmyluckyday. He is one of my favorites and I think he is improving but how good he may become is anyone's guess. I hope he goes to the Breeders Cup and gives a good account of himself. Too bad he was injured last year as he has now had to make up for lost time...no telling how good he may have been without the injury.

re: Early Lowdown on the BC Classic

texaszippeee — Wed, 17 Sep 2014 17:54:35 GMT

California Chrome is my boy.

re: Early Lowdown on the BC Classic

Coldfacts — Wed, 17 Sep 2014 15:37:23 GMT

Forbidden Apple,

Wise Dan is an exceptional gelding. I am not sure I am I can agree that he is either the best dirt horse or no horse in the U.S.A. can handle him. Do not forget he is 7YO.

His connections have been reluctant to take him outside his comfort zone i.e., 8F-9F on turf. There must be a silent reason of this policy.

His last two victories were by very narrow margins over less than stellar 2nd place finishers. There is significantly more competition in the dirt division than there is in the turf division especially amongst the 3YOs.

re: Early Lowdown on the BC Classic

Forbidden Apple — Wed, 17 Sep 2014 12:48:40 GMT

Coldfacts,

The best older dirt horse in my mind is Wise Dan. He is the finely oiled machine that I daydream about. I see no horse in the U.S.A. that he can't handle.

re: Early Lowdown on the BC Classic

Coldfacts — Wed, 17 Sep 2014 12:02:08 GMT

Quinnbit,

You have presented a valid analysis that could account for the slow final time for the 2014 Derby.

The final times for Super Saver (2:04.45)and Smarty Jones(2:04.06) can be excused because of track conditions. The time for the 2014 was the 3rd slowest in the last 24yrs.

The points system was in operation when the 2013 Derby Preps were being contested. Most of the sprinters would have been eliminated. The final time for the 2013 Derby was 2:02.89 on a sloppy track.

While your analysis is noteworthy I hardly believe it has not pinpointed the real reason for the slow final time.

I am not one that focus on Beyers. However, the Beyers for the majority of the horses were lower than the ones they entered with including winner CC.

"He did this on two weeks rest; had he had more rest between races he would have run faster and his victory would have been more impressive"

I do believe you need to revisit the above hypothetic. Funny Cide , Big brown and Starry Jones all romped to victory in the Preakness with similar rest.

"I'm not aware of any other stakes caliber three year old that has won on two weeks rest this year"

Come on! You very well know that that turn around period is consistent with the Preakness. Claimers and harness horses are accustom to those turn around times.

re: Early Lowdown on the BC Classic

Coldfacts — Tue, 16 Sep 2014 18:28:47 GMT

MonicaV,

The PA Derby has some amount of interest as the performance of Protonico will give some indication as to whether Travers winner V E Day is for real.

Protonico was only a HD behind eventual Travers winner V E Day in the Curlin. That was his 4th start and 2nd start in 9 months. How fit could he have been for a 9F race against a horse the caliber of V E Day? Finishing behind V E Day in the Travers were Wicked Strong and Tonalist two horses CC was failed to defeat in the Belmont.

It appears the blinker were added to Protonico for his next start in the Smarty Jones. He encountered slight trouble out of the first turn and again down the back stretch. At one point he was steadied. He was blocked behind horses at the top of the stretch and had to change direction twice in the stretch and still exploded for an easy victory. The fraction of the SJ were 22.73, 46.29,1:10.77 .

The Smarty Jones was his 5th start and at 5 different track. This colt must be bursting at the seams with fitness at this point. He was sired by the iron horse Giants Causeway and out of a lightly raced A P Indy mare and obviously has the pedigree to be a top class horse. This colt has pace, stamina and being from the High Octane barn of Todd Pletcher, he will be loaded for this million dollar race.

Another interesting starter is C J Awesome. Why do I consider an allowance winner interesting against this field? The final time of his allowance victory captured my attention. He led from gate to wire over 9F for final time of 1:49.28. Wicked Strong won the Jim Dandy in 1:49.16 and V E Day won the Curlin in 1:50.51. Obviously it is dangerous to compare times on different days but his connections must think his numbers suggest he belongs in the field.

He improve on his previous time over 9F in his most recent victory by 1 1/2 seconds. In addition he won from gate to wire over 10F at Churchill Downs. He was sired by Awesome Again who seems to sire horses with good tactical speed with Oxbow being the most recent.

This colt likes to be on the lead and the PA Derby will be won by either a leader or a horse close to the lead. It therefore suits his running style.

The final horse of interest to me is Classic Giacnroll. I like him heading into the Jerome and Withers. He finished 2nd & 4th respectively. He finished 2nd to Protonico in the Smarty Jones and broke is maiden at the track.

I am not sure he can beat these guys but one has to think that his sire Giacomo does not get a lot of Storm Bird mares. In addition to Classic Giacnroll's Storm Bird dam his 2nd dam was sired by His Majesty. Storm Bird was dam sire of Derby winners Thunder Gulch and Grindstone. His Majesty was dam sire of Risen Star.

He obviously loves the track and with his 4th place finish in the WV Derby and 2nd to Protonico whom I like to win, I must include him in my exotic wagers.

re: Early Lowdown on the BC Classic

Quinnbit — Tue, 16 Sep 2014 16:01:20 GMT

California Chrome won one of the slowest Derby in recent memory and was not overwhelming in his Preakness Victory.

The Derby point system by weighting the last races (1&1/8 miles) leading up to it with the highest point totals, assures both the first and second place finishers in those races a spot in the gate in the Kentucky Derby. Those twelve horses (the inclusion of the UAE derby is pointless "pun intended") make up sixty per cent of the field and the remaining starters come from from horses that accrued points in the 50 point win races and subsequent third or fourth place finishes in the final prep races. Only races at a mile or more are given points. No winners of $400,000 in sprint races are included which equates to no true speed horses in the gate. Yes there are go to the front types, but they are not speed horses. Without speed horses that can go 44 flat the dynamic of the race has changed. Yes Palace Malice went one of the fastest first half miles in recent memory but he isn't a true speed horse. So as we move through time we will see what we saw this year, a very slow time on the clock but not slow from a visual point of view. The rewarding of points to the most recent winners and second place finishers of one and one-eighth races and no points for a sprinter/speed types has and will continue to deliver us what we saw this year.

In regard to the Preakness; California Chrome bullied his way into a good position, stalked a reasonably fast pace, was forced to make a premature move to maintain his position when Social Inclusion loomed up on his outside, put that one away in workmanlike fashion and held off a determined Ride On Curlin. He did this on two weeks rest; had he had more rest between races he would have run faster and his victory would have been more impressive. I'm not aware of any other stakes calibur three year old that has won on two weeks rest this year but I'm inclined to believe that none of the top echelon of the class would produce any better of an effort given only two weeks rest.

re: Early Lowdown on the BC Classic

Coldfacts — Tue, 16 Sep 2014 15:07:10 GMT

Tommyboomer,

“Does anyone seriously think Medal Count or Commissioner for example would be faster than California Chrome or Shared Belief at 1 1/8 miles on Dirt?”

Very few believed they were faster over 12F on dirt as denoted by their Belmont odds. With 3YOs one never knows when they will suddenly deside to run to their pedigrees. In any event the two were not mentioned as challengers for SB and CC.

Whilst Tonalist has not won since his Belmont victory, he has been competitive. I am of the opinion that he did not like the Saratoga surface. His best performances have been at Belmont and he should be a different horse in the JCGC.

“In California Chrome's case in particular, he's raced everywhere”

I have counted 4 states and 6 tracks. I consider it a stretch to regard 4 states as everywhere. He has made 10 of this 13 race in CA. His PA Derby opponent Protonico, has made 5 starts and they have been in 5 different states.

“I never put too much stock in one race, so VE Day interests me, but”

V E Day’s Travers victory was historic on a number of levels. Many do not recognize the unlikeliness of his victory. Many horses win their G1 debuts but of the current 3YO crop, he is the only one that has done so against four G1 winners. Danza won his graded stakes debut in the G1, AK Derby. It was his 4th start and that victory was achieved against one G1 winner i.e., Strong Mandate. What’s the significance of his achievement? In his 5th start he finished 3rd in the KD. When horses win major G1 races despite the enormity of the challenges they face, it signals their exceptional abilities. Those types of victories should never be viewed as one race as their significance goes way beyond the one race.

V E Day won four consecutive races on four different surfaces. A sloppy dirt track; a firm turf course; a fast dirt track and a drying out dirt track. He contested and won two 9F races in July and contested the 10F Travers <30 days after his 2 July starts. If you use his Travers victory alone, you will miss his versatility and his capacity to overcome every challenge that has confronted him.

“On pure speed figures, SB and CC should be able to compete with the 4YO's.”

I fail to understand why only two of the possible 6 3YOs that are likely to contest the BCC, are being profiled so extensively. Am I to assume that the 3YOs that raced at Saratoga are chopped liver?

Wicked Strong finished 4th in the KD from a bad post and with an event filled trip. The next time he met CC they dead heated for 4th in the Belmont. He has since won the Jim Dandy and lost the Travers by a NS. Tonalist won the Belmont and finished 2nd in the Jim Dandy and 3rd in the Travers. CC lost to Tonalist who shed his frog during preparation for the Belmont. He had to be trained in bar shoe. How much better would he have been if being able to train properly? V E day defeated both Tonalist and WS in his last race and that was something CC was unable to do.

What exactly am I missing?

Shared belief is yet to face a top 3YO. The 4YOs he has defeated has been on synthetic his preferred surface. Many of the 4YOs in the PC prefer dirt and his easy victory in the that race should be viewed in context.

While his speed figures are good on synthetic and the conveyor belt at Los AL, that does not mean he will be able to defeat the top 3YO. With his action over 10F on dirt while under sustain pressure from top routers, it will be significantly different from having Toast Of New York on his shoulders turning for home.

A NS separated V E Day and WS in the Travers completed in in 2:02.93 on a drying out track. Tonalist wining time in the Belmont ranks 3rd best in the last 10 years. The 10f split in the Belmont was 2:02 plus. Are you suggesting that the speed figures for the aforementioned horses will not be competitive against the 4YOs? Will Take Charge won the 2013 Travers in 2:02.63 and lost the BCC completed in 2:00.72 by a NS. He ran almost 2 seconds faster at SA Park..

re: Early Lowdown on the BC Classic

MonicaV — Tue, 16 Sep 2014 14:54:50 GMT

Interesting reading here. Lots of different viewpoints as always. I'm looking forward to the PA Derby and it looks to have attracted some good horses and should be fun to watch. Analyzing Horses and performances can be a great tool for handicapping and often times is fairly accurate but not always. It's so difficult sometimes because they could have a horrible start and won't recover. Some horses are sensitive to the track surface they run on. You'll see a horse make a huge run and win against all odds and then they never run like that again and let's face it, horses sometimes don't feel like running or they are having a bad day. I drive myself crazy trying to go over stats and everything else involved and have had some success but I have more fun when I go with my gut feeling. I love horses, I have for as long as I can remember and sometimes I latch on to one particular one. It was that way with Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Sunday Silence, Smarty Jones, Curlin and California Chrome. I always pick them no matter what. Odds are not big payoffs so I look for a good exacta but betting isn't what makes me come back again and again. It's watching them run and admiring the beauty of it.

I have to say that CC has a "magic way of going". He has an incredibly smooth and large stride and it seems effortless as he runs by. I don't think we've seen the best of him yet. I think this next race will be huge and I'm looking forward to it and he needs the race. It looks to me like the next two months will be very interesting.

re: Early Lowdown on the BC Classic

Tommyboomer — Mon, 15 Sep 2014 18:27:08 GMT

Coldfacts:

I enjoy reading your posts. Lots of research into them. I will say that many of your comparisons seem invalid to me.

As far as the Belmont goes, it's 1 1/2 miles a distance most of these horses will never run again. Not sure how relevant it is comparing it to results head to head (or not) against races at shorter distances? Medal Count, for example has flopped since the Belmont, Tonalist hasn't won a race either, Commission never really showed anything before it and of course now is sidelined.

I think comparing head to head performances had to be taken with a large asterisk, unless you have enough races to compare or common factors. Does anyone seriously think Medal Count or Commissioner for example would be faster than California Chrome, or Shared Belief at 1 1/8 miles on Dirt? I highly doubt it?

Clearly there are questions about the level of competition that CC and SB have beaten (SB in particular), but that's the nature of 3YO's. the 4YO's have more races and seasoning. in California Chrome's case in particular, he's raced everywhere, going to PA this weekend, and has beaten almost everyone on different tracks. If SB, Honor Code,or Top Billing weren't there, that's something that we can't change.

I never put too much stock in one race, so VE Day interests me, but I'd like to see a similar performance in the JCGC before I'd consider him a real threat. One race, a horse does not make and similarly, I wouldn't throw out a horse for a bad performance. They aren't machines.

On pure speed figures, SB and CC should be able to compete with the 4YO's. Whether or not they can win, remains to be seen. Moreno, GOD and maybe Bayern are going to burn each other our on the lead. That is the only thing that is known for sure. :)

The question is whether the stalkers can hand tough onto that pace and fend of the closers. I think it's going to a traffic jam coming down the stretch with the race not really sorting itself out until the final 1/16th.

re: Early Lowdown on the BC Classic

Fran Loszynski — Mon, 15 Sep 2014 17:40:49 GMT

I'm hoping for Tonalist or V.E.Day to win the Breeder's.

Why because Tonalist has the strength and V.E.Day English Channel genes of awesome intellect and spunk!

re: Early Lowdown on the BC Classic

Coldfacts — Mon, 15 Sep 2014 16:18:47 GMT

“Will Take charge, the best older dirt horse is right in front of our eyes"

Whilst records can be misleading they are certainly worth analyzing. Place Malice was widely viewed as the best older dirt horse in 2014 before his untimely retirement. I disagreed with that widely held view as PM avoided the major G1 races for easier assignments and racked up several victories against weaker oppositions.

WTC on the other hand contested G1 races at 3 different tracks and was defeated in races completed in track and stakes records timnes. Those were indeed brutal races that seem to have impacted him negatively as denoted in his subsequent losses to weaker opposition.

WTC proved the 2014 assessment of Place Malice incorrect when he finished ahead of that colt in the Whitney despite not wining. The Whitney was won by Moreno whom WTC had defeated 4 times in 2013. Moreno one victory over WTC can hardly be considered significant. I am of the opinion the horse that finished 2nd in the Whitney does have a legitimate claim to be the best in the older division.

Itsmyluckyday like Palace Malice avoided the major G1 races for easier assignment and racked up several victories against weaker oppositions. He was also defeated by PM returning from 9 months off due to injury. However, he finished ahead of WTC and PM in the Whitney and returned to defeat the Whitney victor Moreno in the Woodward.

Itsmyluckyday and WTC have met 3 times and the record is 2 to 1 in favor of Itsmyluckyday. He was rated above WTC heading into the KD where WTC finished ahead of him but he returned in the Preakness to finish 2nd whilst WTC was again unplaced in another TC race.

Itsmyluckyday was clearly the better 3YO of the two before his injury. He has returned and in their sole meeting he again defeated WTC. He has won 4 times and finished 2nd in 6 starts in 2014 with a G1 victory. Whereas WTC has been defeated by lesser on two occasions in 2014. The same cannot be state about Itsmyluckyday.

If Palace Malice was considered the best in the older division then Itsmyluckyday who defeated both PM and WTC and the horse that defeated them, he has to be the best older horse on dirt.

re: Early Lowdown on the BC Classic

Delrene — Sun, 14 Sep 2014 19:43:11 GMT

Thank you for this helpful insight on what we might expect in the Classic. As always, I hope for all horses to remain healthy and have safe racing. Whatever the outcome, it will be a great Breeder's Cup at Santa Anita.

re: Early Lowdown on the BC Classic

Coldfacts — Sun, 14 Sep 2014 17:00:57 GMT

“I'm very excited about the match up of the two best 3YOs in the country, Shared Belief and California Chrome”

Do the cold facts indicate the above are the two best 3YOs in the country? Does being top rated equates to being the best?

California Chrome won one of the slowest Derby in recent memory and was not overwhelming in his Preakness Victory. As mentioned before the runner ups in the Derby/Preakness are yet to win a graded race. It is therefore reasonable conclusion that the graded winners contesting those races did not run to the best of their abilities. CC was beaten in the Belmont and while the reasons for his defeat are plentiful, he had ever chance a furlong out and could find extra.

He was the top rated 3YO going in and his status remained unchanged exiting despite his loss. However, he was not the best on the day. Past performances have never represented a guarantee for future success. CC status as the best took a big hit with his 4th place finish in the Belmont. Is he now the best or 2nd best 3YO male in the country?

CC finished behind two horses he had never faced and one that he defeated in the KD. He dead heated with Wicked Strong the 4th place finisher in the KD. Did the effects of 3 races in 5 weeks contribute to his loss? His 3-5 odd suggested there were no concerns about his demanding schedule. Some very well bred colts stepped up that day and he got out run to the line. The performances of WS and Medal Count signaled that the talent gap between CC and some opponents was not as wide as perceived.

There is something unique about Shared Belief. He never faced the top 2YOs in the country and was voted Champion 2YO having never made a start on dirt. It appears he is the top rated 3YO without facing the top 3YOs and despite not contesting any of the major 3YO races. The standards for being considered the best have been clearly been redefined.

He is undefeated in 6 starts with five of his victories being achieved on synthetic. In his sole dirt effort he demolished the very average Candy Boy. In his last effort he defeated older rivals but certainly not the best of the decision and on a surface on which he clearly excels.

So what do we have in the two best 3YOs in the country?

The talented CC decimated weak opposition in CA; recorded average type Derby/Preakness victories and barely made the board as the 3-5 favorite in its last start.

Shared Belief has never face any of the top 3YOs, never contested any of major 3YO races and has score 5 of his 6 victories on synthetic. The fields of older horse he has defeated on his preferred surface can hardly be used as measure for his likely performance against the top 3YOs on dirt.

Since the Belmont, two of CC’s opponents have kept their forms with one showing significant improvement with blinkers added. Those two were recently defeated by well-bred new shooter V E Day whose unlikely Travers victory was achieved in his graded stakes debut against four multiple graded stakes winners. Neither CC nor SB have ever faced a field of 3YOs containing 4 multiple graded stakes winners

re: Early Lowdown on the BC Classic

Forbidden Apple — Sun, 14 Sep 2014 15:23:43 GMT

I forgot to mention the PA Derby which will feature the return of California Chrome. CJ's Awesome deserves a long look in this spot. He impressed me at Saratoga in wire to wire fashion. I have a feeling that his best races are ahead of him.

re: Early Lowdown on the BC Classic

Forbidden Apple — Sun, 14 Sep 2014 15:18:58 GMT

Majestic Harbor will rebound with a switch back to real dirt! Please hold back with the mountain of respect for the untested Shared Belief.

I have two words for the Breeder's Cup Classic, Wise Dan. Does anyone actually believe that he would have trouble handling Moreno, Wicked Strong, or Tonalist in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. I believe he would have one horse to fear and that's Will Take charge. The best older dirt horse is right in front of our eyes. Yet I can only watch him race in my daydreams.