Shared Belief Needs to be Awesome...Again

re: Shared Belief Needs to be Awesome...Again

Paula Higgins — Tue, 30 Sep 2014 01:46:16 GMT

Linda in Texas, I could not agree more with you about Pepper's Pride. She was unforgettable and even thinking about her makes me smile.

About the Awesome Again, my initial impression was that Shared Belief did not dominate, although he won the race. After really thinking about this, I totally agree that it may have been his best race considering that he actually ran a longer race due to being fanned wide. But I also wonder if it took too much out of him. It was not an easy win any way you looked at it. I hope he will bounce back quickly. He is a gutsy horse and I have a higher regard for him than I did before.

re: Shared Belief Needs to be Awesome...Again

Quinnbit — Mon, 29 Sep 2014 20:54:56 GMT

Nobledancer,

My bad on sex of Punctuate. The colt was absolutely flying the last seventy yards!

re: Shared Belief Needs to be Awesome...Again

Linda in Texas — Mon, 29 Sep 2014 17:55:11 GMT

Lucky you nobledancer. Awesome to watch on my computer screen, i cannot imagine seeing Punctuate who has some fine racing genes in his pedigree winning it in person. And congrats to Mr. Zetcher also. A fine colt and only 2. Love it.

re: Shared Belief Needs to be Awesome...Again

Arthur Wellesley — Mon, 29 Sep 2014 17:52:22 GMT

I think it's more of a case of there not being anything around to beat Shared Belief. He should win and probably will barring anything untoward happening. From what I know Toast of New York is the only European been aimed at the Classic, I know that O'Brien usually lets it be known before October if he is readying anything for it, if something does turn up from outside the US I dare say it will be an after-thought like it was with So You Think a few years back (lost the Arc so ran at Ascot, lost at Ascot so ran in the Classic). Tonalist is the only danger in my opinion. As for Wise Dan? I remember thinking back in 2012 that he would never beet Excelebration and then last year thinking he was a certainty. This year I'm on the fence. I think he's vulnerable for the obvious fact that he's had his problems and he's obviously getting on a bit now. I'm sure there's nothing in America that can beat him but now with Kingman retired and it looking unlikely that Australia or the South African champion Variety Club will make a cameo, that only leaves Toronado as a viable challenger and I'm convinced that like a fair few European milers down the years that he would not at all be suited by a US track. He's a big galloper who's seen to best effect over straight miles. For that reason I think Dan will emulate Goldikova... probably.

re: Shared Belief Needs to be Awesome...Again

nobledancer — Mon, 29 Sep 2014 15:06:39 GMT

In my humble opinion, Shared Belief was never so impressive as he was in winning the Awesome Again Stakes on Saturday. He proved that he has a fighting heart, but it came at a price. I hope he didn't leave his Breeders' Cup race on the track.

Quinnbit, Punctuate is a colt. Peppers Pride did have a Distorted Humor filly in 2011. I was standing trackside and watched his monster run from behind. It was breath-taking, and the smile on owner Arnold Zetcher's face as he approached the Winners' Circle could have lit the tote board. It will be fun to follow this promising two-year-old!

re: Shared Belief Needs to be Awesome...Again

Linda in Texas — Sun, 28 Sep 2014 15:29:31 GMT

Quinnbit - Pepper's Pride is a special mare to me, was lucky enough to drive to New Mexico and see her final race and I follow her pretty closely. She lost her first foal but was bred to Distorted Humor producing a filly in Feb. 2011. She was then bred back to Distorted Humor producing a colt in 2012. He was sold at the yearling sale in 2013 for $300,000 and is Pepper's first starter,Punctuate. Pepper's Pride then was bred to Malibu Moon producing another colt in 2013 and his name is Dad.

Punctuate was her second foal sired by Distorted Humor, the colt who won yesterday in the 4th race at Santa Anita and came as the announcer said "out of the clouds like an Express Train." Best race of the day for me. Joe Allen of Abilene and Michael Stenson of Fort worth bred him. I always keep an eye on the horses coming from the back and he sailed by the front runners to win and it was truly amazing. I wish Pepper and her progeny nothing but success and at 2 Punctuate has a nice career ahead of him. Don't know about her first born foal, the filly, with Distorted Humor nor her colt by Malibu Moon. And she has since had a weanling by Hard Spun. So there are now 4 little Pepper's Pride's on the ground.

re: Shared Belief Needs to be Awesome...Again

Quinnbit — Sun, 28 Sep 2014 13:54:46 GMT

Perhaps Punctuate blew a hole in the Santa Anita bias, last to first, first time out, or maybe she is just a runner. This filly was absolutely flying down the track the last sixteenth. This filly is by Distorted Humor out of the undefeated darling of New Mexico breds, Peppers Pride. She was given a masterful ride by Rosie, who appears to have silk hands and steel nerves. Beware of this filly in the Breeders Cup Juvenile fillies.

re: Shared Belief Needs to be Awesome...Again

Householder — Sun, 28 Sep 2014 00:11:43 GMT

Hollendorfer and his crazy good 3 year olds. Like Blind Luck it would have been nice to ship him back east and stomp. However, I guess he now waits for what ever shows up and gets a pretty easy run at HOY. It's his to lose.

re: Shared Belief Needs to be Awesome...Again

Quinnbit — Sat, 27 Sep 2014 01:54:51 GMT

Not a huge fan of bias but after six races on the El Segundo sand at Santa Anita the surface appears to favor horses on the lead or close to the lead. This is based from watching the replays and review of the charts. I don't play the races there so I didn't study form, some of the horses were short priced winners so they may have been horses that were going to win regardless.

re: Shared Belief Needs to be Awesome...Again

Coldfacts — Fri, 26 Sep 2014 16:56:21 GMT

Does V E Day have strong historic credentials heading into the JCGC? The records reflect, yes. V E Day carries a four race win streak into the JCGC. Several of the 3YOs that have won the JCGC following a Travers victory, entered the Gold Cup with win streaks.

Easy Goer: 4 race win streak

Bernadini: 5 race win streak

Arts & Letters: 5 race win streak

Buckpasser : His victory in the JCGC was part of a 15 race win streak.

Damascus: 5 race win streak

Before the fans of these great horses take me to the wood chipper, I am not comparing abilities here but rather win streaks. Interestingly, none of the above horses made their graded stakes debut in the Travers. All entered the Travers with multiple graded stakes victories similar to five of the horses V E Day defeated.

He must be good win wager in the JCGC.

re: Shared Belief Needs to be Awesome...Again

Coldfacts — Fri, 26 Sep 2014 15:56:19 GMT

Ranagulzion,

“Bayern - Definitely a candidate for 3YO champion and even HOTY”

You must be having a Quality Road/Uncle Mo moment. Sceptre acknowledged that he made an error in citing Bayern as the #1 3YO at this time. You have gone a step further by suggesting that He is definitely a candidate for 3YO champion and even HOTY.

Let’s examine the 2014, G1 records of the leading 3YOs:

California Chrome: four G1s (1st -1st -1st- 4th)

He is the only one on the list that is a multiple G1 winner and clearly leads the pack. He holds a victory over Wicked Strong and Bayer.

Wicked Strong: four G1s (1st -2st -4th - 4th)

He has the 2nd best G1 record on the list but is yet to finish ahead of CC in two meetings. However, he has defeated the Belmont winner twice and Bayern in their only meeting.

Bayern: four G1s (1st -3rd -9th-10th)

He is one of three on list that has contested four G1 and has the worst record. While California Chrome and Wicked Strong have been defeated in G1 races neither finished last nor haven been beaten by 20L tow of two of their defeats.

Tonalist: Two G1s (1st -3rd)

He won his G1 debut in the Belmont defeating the Derby/ Preakness winner. He holds victories over Wicked Strong and Bayern in the only meeting.

Shared Belief: One G1 (1st)

Only unbeaten on the list! Has contested only one G1 and it puzzling why he is considered the leader of the pack seeing he has not faced any top 3YO to date. He was voted champion 2YO without facing a top 2YO and he is now regarded as the top 3YO without facing any of the 3YO. This has to be unprecedented! The Awesome Again will be his 2nd G1 start for the year and that will determine if he can challenge CC for the top spot.

V E Day: One G1 (1st)

He recorded a historic victory in the Travers in what was his graded stakes. Finishing behind him were five graded stakes winners that in combination won 10 graded races including four G1. The Travers has the most competitive 3YO race contested year to date. En route to victory he defeated Wicked Strong, Tonalist, and Bayern. Two of the aforementioned have defeated CC so by a process of extrapolation V E Day should have little difficulty defeating California Chrome. In light of this, the only top 3YO that V E Day has not defeated either directly or indirectly is Shared Belief.

If Shared Belief is considered the #1, 3YO then I consider the V E Day the #2. Both are on win steaks with the latter winning his last 4 starts. Should V E Day win the JCGC and SB win the Awesome Again, I would place V E Day ahead of SB heading into the BCC. A 3YO with consecutive victories in G1 races over 10F heading into the BCC is a rarity.

re: Shared Belief Needs to be Awesome...Again

Ranagulzion — Fri, 26 Sep 2014 03:44:08 GMT

Coldfacts: It i true that Bayern's resume is a bit checkered BUT the quality of his winning performances (dominating and lightning fast) stamp him as definitely a candidate for 3YO champion and even HOTY, should he win the Breeder's Cup Classic, where he stans as good a chance as any. Although I'm touting his credentials, I'm not yet picking him to win but he'll be in my top four, for sure.

re: Shared Belief Needs to be Awesome...Again

spectacular bid — Fri, 26 Sep 2014 03:02:47 GMT

Bayern will NEVER be a superstar because, as a colt, if he wins the classic..or ANY breeders cup race, ya have to figure he'll get retired to stud..yet another problem with horse racing.. GELD EM ALL!!

re: Shared Belief Needs to be Awesome...Again

Bill Two — Fri, 26 Sep 2014 02:59:43 GMT

I don't think anything in the Awesome Again will beat Shared Belief nor will anybody beat him the BC Classic. What may eventually beat the horse is that paddlewheel gate. That type of action can lead to unsoundness at some point, but who knows? All I know now is that this horse is much better than anything else out there.

re: Shared Belief Needs to be Awesome...Again

Matthew W — Fri, 26 Sep 2014 01:40:00 GMT

If they had a vote right now for three year old champ it would/should be Chromey by a landslide, I mean Shared Belief on the poly? Bayern at Phily? Chrome won the big ones, and whereas he may be on the down slide---MAY be---as of right now he is #1, one bad race shouldn't erase those four straight Gr1's

re: Shared Belief Needs to be Awesome...Again

Matthew W — Fri, 26 Sep 2014 01:25:49 GMT

Ranagulzion, you forgot another wire to wire, gutty race, Black Tie Affair over Twilight Agenda---I cannot forget, as I was all over Twilight, and try as he did, and McCarron had him in perfect position at head of the stretch, Black Tie Affair just kept finding and fending, it was a great Classic.

re: Shared Belief Needs to be Awesome...Again

Matthew W — Fri, 26 Sep 2014 01:15:12 GMT

Live wire: Arts And Letters had one of the greatest if not THE greatest post Triple Crown seasons ever for a three year old...right now I think Chromey has done the most, but they tend to remember the end of the year the most, most recent cars in point is I'll Have Another, who was 4 for 4, with a spectacular Preakness where he made up six lengths on Bodemeister in the last half mile, Wise Dan is a great miler, but they make so much importance about the Triple Crown races, The BCup is great, but I'll not likely have another chance to see a performance like the 2012 Preakness, pun intended! Watch that race, see how Bodemeister looks, and he reels him in for fun---who does that?

re: Shared Belief Needs to be Awesome...Again

Matthew W — Fri, 26 Sep 2014 00:55:22 GMT

Chromey didn't like it down there, and despite the lackluster effort, he HAS run out before, and Art is not known as a trainer who gets them ready at first asking---no way was that his race, either he's not right or it's a toss out, I'll take the 6-1 in the Classic, he's still fresh, Victor did not persevere, (me wonders if the stewards had a talk with him), some people think when a horse runs a clunker it's a cold fact they'll never run well again---I like to turn theories like that into cold cash!

re: Shared Belief Needs to be Awesome...Again

English Pete — Thu, 25 Sep 2014 18:49:39 GMT

Paula, purely with my gambling hat on I hope that Bayern does not contest the BCC. I can't see him in the first three if he's headed before coming off the final turn, but I can see him winning if he enters the stretch in front. Frankly, I don't need that kind of variable of a horse that's dead easy to beat but who potentially could win. Of course, wearing the race fan hat I want him to run as it adds to the fascination of the race.

Re your second paragraph, very well said. I couldn't agree more.

re: Shared Belief Needs to be Awesome...Again

Paula Higgins — Thu, 25 Sep 2014 16:29:17 GMT

Ranagulzion and English Pete thanks for your comments. I still do not see Bayern winning the BCC if he is entered into it instead of the mile. If I was Bob Baffert I sure would want to see how Shared Belief does in the Awesone Again before I put Bayern in the classic. Bayern has other good options if it turns out Shared Belief is a monster. Bayern's record, while good, is not dominating. I wish Bayern nothing but the best, but he is inconsistent as of right now.

People do not have to work at a track to be fairly knowledgeable about horse racing, although it certainly doesn't hurt. In an age where we have videos/t.v. we can see a lot as well as read about it. If you follow it for years like Coldfacts, you can give informed opinions. Let's face it, even those who work day to day with horses can only give informed opinions and hope for the best. It is not a science.

re: Shared Belief Needs to be Awesome...Again

Coldfacts — Thu, 25 Sep 2014 15:30:25 GMT

Harrison,

“Have you ever actually worked with racehorses at a racetrack or training facility?”

Yes, I have worked with racehorses at a racetrack that doubled as a training facility. By that I mean young horses were broken there well.

During my time at this racetrack/training facility I became familiar with a host of performance enhancing and condition maintaining products in the field of biochemistry. For the purpose of my response medication is excluded.

I observed and participated in the administration of these products to horses. I was also able to monitor the short term and long term impact on horses of products that were deposited directly into their system via a needle and a syringe. These products ranged from injectable vitamins to steroids.

I have seen and have been exposed to many equine labs of four feet.

re: Shared Belief Needs to be Awesome...Again

sceptre — Thu, 25 Sep 2014 15:04:11 GMT

I meant to "type" "...right now, Bayern is the #2 three-year-old..." Obviously (to me) Shared Belief is #1.

re: Shared Belief Needs to be Awesome...Again

z girl — Thu, 25 Sep 2014 14:05:46 GMT

I miss Zenyatta!

re: Shared Belief Needs to be Awesome...Again

Steve Haskin — Thu, 25 Sep 2014 13:42:37 GMT

Harrison, yes I have. Have You? And I have no idea what distant means.

re: Shared Belief Needs to be Awesome...Again

Coldfacts — Thu, 25 Sep 2014 11:45:42 GMT

“Right now Bayern is the #1 3YO”

When a knowledgeable contributor arrives at such a conclusion, careful note must be taken as said conclusion can hardly be considered frivolous. If said statement was submitted by Bayern’s longtime supporter Ranagulzion, one could understand the bias involved.

Do the cold facts support Bayern as the #1, 3YO? Well let’s see:

Record, 2014: (9 starts - 5-1-1)

Summary: One G1; Two G2; placed in G1 & G3

Finished 9 of 10 in the G1 Preakness with only misplaced filly Ria Antonia beaten; Finished 10th and last in the G1 Travers.

Bayern contested neither the Derby nor Belmont and was badly beaten in the Preakness. His victory in the P A Derby was his first against a quality field and was achieved on a speed bias track with him being the lone speed. In his 3 graded stakes victory he has only defeated one G1 winner and that was California Chrome who was returning from a long respite after contesting all legs of the grueling TC.

Is the above the resume of a #1, 3YO? Well the only way to determine same is to review the resumes of the other contenders for the #1 ranking:

Shared Belief: Record, 2014: (3 starts - 3-0-0)

Won Pacific Classic S. (G1, 10f), Los Al Derby (G2,9f)

Undefeated and untested and has defeated older twice. He defeated two older G1 winners in the Pacific Classic. He has only made 3 starts in 2014. He twice destroyed Candy Boy who was the 3rd place finisher in the PA Derby.

California Chrome: Record, 2014: (7 starts - 5-0-0)

Summary: Three G1; one G2; Derby/Preakness winner and joint 4th in Belmont.

He defeated Bayern by a city block in the Preakness. While he was contested the Belmont, Bayern contested the Woody Stephens.

The résumés of Wicked Strong, Tonalist and V E Day, three colts that have defeated Bayern would indicate they deserve to be ranked ahead of the P A Derby winner.

Despite any biases that might exist, it is inconceivable that anyone would conclude that Bayern is the #1 3YO at this time based on his total record. He has made more starts than the 5 other horses cited above. He has avoided the major 3YO races and his Preakness and Travers performances have provided the reason why. The only time he met a field multiple G1 winners he finished last. He was off to his usual quick start in the Travers and led comfortingly but was closely tracked by quality horses that ran by him and he eventually faded to last. Which of the top five 3YOs prepping for the BCC has performed so badly in two G1 races?

To be considered the best, a horse's resume cannot reflect two unexplained last place finishes. Reliability is one of many attributes of being considered the best.