Bombs Away in the JC Gold Cup

re: Bombs Away in the JC Gold Cup

hopalong — Tue, 30 Sep 2014 23:26:53 GMT

Wicked Strong was the only horse in the Gold Cup to test free of any substance. Ask NYRA.

re: Bombs Away in the JC Gold Cup

gonewest — Mon, 29 Sep 2014 02:50:05 GMT

Poor selections, Steve

re: Bombs Away in the JC Gold Cup

Coldfacts — Sun, 28 Sep 2014 14:49:49 GMT

Secreteriat,

It appears you seriously lack the knowledge of the sport you follow.

Did the following BCC winners belong in the race:

Valponi: He never record a G1 victory before the BCC and his previous start was on turf. He won at odds of 44-1

Arcangues: Raced exclusively of turf and was badly beaten is his race preceding the BCC. He won at odds of 133-1

Alphabet Soup: he finished 10th in The Big Cap and 3rd in the Goodwood before defeating Cigar in the BCC.

California Chrome whom you regarded as a Ferrari and his opponents as Volkswagens also finished 6th in the P A Derby, does he belong in the BCC?

Your submission was ill-conceived.

re: Bombs Away in the JC Gold Cup

Secreteriat — Sun, 28 Sep 2014 02:09:05 GMT

V E Day does not belong in the B C Classic

He was trounced today and his win was caused by Tonalist beating himself chasing Bayern. V E will not beat Tonalist again. He belongs in Grade 2 or lower.

re: Bombs Away in the JC Gold Cup

Ranagulzion — Sat, 27 Sep 2014 18:50:17 GMT

Steve: I put my hand up right away ...Micromanage is a hard trying horse but too slow for these. Stephanoatsee is the wise guy's horse and Prayer For Relief could again get a minor share but its hard to get past the principals, Wicked Strong, VE Day, Moreno and Zivo. Wicked Strong should confirm his status as an elite 3YO colt today IMO.

re: Bombs Away in the JC Gold Cup

JayJay — Sat, 27 Sep 2014 18:01:06 GMT

Coldfacts : Do you like VE Day ? Joking aside, I think you've done pretty much everything to make us think that you like him, it's almost race time....it's time to post your picks unless you're only playing win money on VE Day for the JCGC.

re: Bombs Away in the JC Gold Cup

Matthew W — Sat, 27 Sep 2014 16:27:11 GMT

Ex box Micromanage, Zivo, Tonalist in JC Gold! Santa Anita ex box in Rodeo Dr: Bee Brave, Parranda, Irish Mission, Stormy Lucy--I love Stormy Lucy today! Enjoy!

re: Bombs Away in the JC Gold Cup

Linda in Texas — Sat, 27 Sep 2014 15:03:28 GMT

Well Steve, i will raise my hands. Why, Micromanage won his first race at Saratoga by five lengths and impressed me, a new name that wins his first race impresses me. Same sire as Rachel Alexandra, no fluke there. He is game on and quick on the right path. Runs enthusiastically and i just like him. He was not an expensive horse at the sale, bought for $170,000 by Mike Repole. He was a bargain. If i gotta pick one i will pick him. And Prayer For Relief to place just because we need some! Safe racing to all today. Hello Dr. D and thanks Steve.

re: Bombs Away in the JC Gold Cup

Coldfacts — Sat, 27 Sep 2014 13:54:31 GMT

As much as Todd Pletcher has dominated racing in New York, the records reflect he has never won the JCGC. Despite the spirited case put forward by the moderator and Mr. Pletcher’s capacity to convert average horses in champion on the big days, it is unlikely that Micromanage will get him off the mark. At least that’s my opinion but how often have we been wrong?

There are some positives and negatives associated Micromanage that when compared suggests his task in the JCGC insurmountable.

With 19 starts to date that’s long for a Pletcher charge so he must be as tough as nails. (P)

His performance in the 12F Brooklyn on Belmont day compares favorably with the Belmont stakes. (P)

Brooklyn fractions: 48 3/5, 1:13 2/5, 2:02 2/5, 2:27

Belmont fractions: 48 2/5, 1:12 4/5, 2:02 2/5, 2:28 2/5

It should be noted that Micromanage carried 119lbs to the 3YOs 126lbs.

Micromanage has made 5 starts at Belmont without a victory. (N)

Two G1s in 19 starts does not indicate a lot of latent.(N)

His best performances at Belmont have been in races where the internal fractions are slow. (N)

Summary: As ultra-dominant NY stable that has never won the JCGC cannot be optimistic when its being represented by a horse that has lost all 5 start at the track; who is pace dependent; who is a grinder with modest acceleration and one that has been beaten by lesser on numerous accessions.

Against these 3YO Micromanage face a tag team. Tonalist with blinkers off is unbeaten at the track and Wicked Strong broke his maiden at the track. They have good tactical speed great acceleration and the stamina a to effectively stay 10F. If they falter in the stretch V E Day the most improved 3YO in training has shown he has a serious turn of foot capable of wearing down quality horses.

I see no path to victory for Micromanage outside a miracle. He is the least of the older horses.

re: Bombs Away in the JC Gold Cup

Bethany Loftis — Sat, 27 Sep 2014 12:55:56 GMT

I'm so glad you wrote about Micromanage! He may not run in all the big races, but the ones he does run in, he always seems to try, and I can't help but love him for that. I loved his race in the Birdstone! He is the epitome of a router in my opinion. I really like his chances in this race, and certainly he deserves to be there. I just hope Pletcher doesn't scratch him at the last minute. Ie noticed he has a habit of doing that with Micromanage, however since he hasn't been cross entered in anything else this weekend, hopefully he'll get his chance at Gold Cup glory! I'll take a stab at Micromanage, Tonalist and Wicked Strong or Prayer for Relief (another fan favorite of mine, I can't help but like him)

re: Bombs Away in the JC Gold Cup

Coldfacts — Sat, 27 Sep 2014 12:49:47 GMT

Mr. Haskin, I would appreciate my previous submission being replaced with the corrected version below. Thanks in advance.

“The 3-year-olds look to have an edge over the older horses on paper, but they’re not exceptional”

The last world beater to win the JCGC was Curlin. He was preceded by the likes of Bernardini, Skip Away and Cigar to name a few. None of those horses won a prestigious G1 in their graded stakes debut. The only starter in the JCGC that has this distinction is V E Day. I keep stressing the historic nature of his victory ad nauseum because I think it is just that.

V E Day entered the G1 10F Travers on 08/23/2014 after the following:

07/02/2014 9F, Allowance (Turf) 1st - 1:47 3/5

07/25/2014 9F, Allowance (dirt) 1st - 1:50 2/5

He was tasked with defeating 4 of the top five 3YOs who were multiples grades staked winners, with each scoring at the G1 Level. The field also included the Derby runner up and an impressive G3 winner. He defeated all by erasing a 9L deficit to tag his stable mate on the line. In so doing he indirectly defeated a 5th top 3YO as Tonalist who finished 3rd won the Belmont defeating top rated California Chrome. Shared Believe is the only one left to be conquered.

V E Day’s four consecutive victories were achieved on two different surfaces but four different track conditions i.e., firm, sloppy, fast and upgraded to fast. His versatility, stamina, recovery capacity and will to win were severely tested between July and August and he rose to the challenge on every occasion.

With his pedigree, the demanding race schedule in the month preceding the Travers and its eventual result, V E Day has certainly proven himself to be exceptional.

re: Bombs Away in the JC Gold Cup

Rusty Weisner — Sat, 27 Sep 2014 12:09:37 GMT

Steve Haskin,

An excellent omen! I am betting Stephanoatsee; that race was faster than the 3 yos'.

I will give some thought to Micomanage, thanks.

re: Bombs Away in the JC Gold Cup

Curlin 08 — Sat, 27 Sep 2014 09:04:51 GMT

Mr. Haskin,

I cant agree more with your opinion about the JCGC this year. The 3-year-olds in the race are hard to separate and they haven't tried hard campaigners old horses. It seems like it will be one of those JCGC that at the end of the race will leave you head scratching what happen in the race. In my opinion is a perfect race to box multiple horses in tri's and super's. Im agree with you in including those three horses but the one I like the most it might not be a BOMB but it will be a price is Zivo. He is returning to Bemont a track that he likes where he score his last victory and his record in Belmont is really good. His race at Saratoga wasn't bad at all when the track wasn't playing for deep closers, it was speed bias and speed hold on in most of the dirt races. I think Belmont will be playing fair and just like it was in the Suburban Handicap. He is a real closer and I think every jockey will be paying attention on Moreno and how the 3-year-olds are place in the race. I think the pace is going to be fast and the race will fall apart in the last 1/8 of a mile. I will key Zivo with a lot horses underneath and I will key him in the second spot too just in case. What you think about his chances?

re: Bombs Away in the JC Gold Cup

Baby Jane Towser — Sat, 27 Sep 2014 06:00:20 GMT

Daniel, I could not agree more about the need to re-open the chute. So happy to see you comment on it. It is ridiculous that the Gold Cup is started on a turn. It has bothered me for years!!! hahaha - I like Big Cazanova - but he is all the way on the outside - great article Steve as usual, this race is going to light up the board!

re: Bombs Away in the JC Gold Cup

Paula Higgins — Sat, 27 Sep 2014 04:43:51 GMT

V.E. Day, Moreno, Prayer For Relief

re: Bombs Away in the JC Gold Cup

JayJay — Sat, 27 Sep 2014 04:27:13 GMT

Steve : I did take a long look at Micromanage for the JCGC but ended up not picking him. I think his wins in the long distance races are aided by horses his class. I'm not saying he doesn't have a chance but I think the field for the JCGC is a little too tough and most should be able to handle the 10Fs competitively.

Now that you mention him though, I have no choice but to play him hehe.

re: Bombs Away in the JC Gold Cup

Dr Drunkinbum — Sat, 27 Sep 2014 02:47:33 GMT

That's what I say, damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead on a long shots exotic. Quite a few to pick from and all favorites in the top three would be a complete shocker. My favorite horse ran today after 249 days off and won again in a good time with strong fractions. He's now 3 for 3. Indianapolis is his name and demolishing the field is his game. He's an absolute beauty and a beast. Came back in a high level allowance that was more like a minor stakes race. Most ran stakes in their last race. Can't wait to see more of this magnificent monster. I had him highly ranked in my Derby Dozen for a little while this year so have been high on him for awhile. Going with Majestic Harbor in the Awesome, and some exotic boxes in the Gold Cup with a few longshots thrown in with Wicked Strong. At least one or two of the 20-1 horses seem to have a pretty good chance of at least hitting the board.

re: Bombs Away in the JC Gold Cup

Sam Santschi — Sat, 27 Sep 2014 01:55:04 GMT

Like your thinking here, Steve. Zito always seems to win a big NY race just when you've forgotten about him so I'm on Stephanoatsee. Will try your Micromanage and WS if he can just stay a little bit more off the pace and let Tonalist do the heavy lifting on Moreno after he's shaken off Big Cazanova.

re: Bombs Away in the JC Gold Cup

Matthew W — Sat, 27 Sep 2014 01:17:47 GMT

Love your logic, have always liked Micromanage, Moreno way out there on that turn insures pace, not really sold on all those three year olds who keep beating one another, like Micro and Chad Brown's hard truer whose name escapes me

re: Bombs Away in the JC Gold Cup

Old Timer — Sat, 27 Sep 2014 00:55:10 GMT

Steve, I always like your thinking, but I am not sure that Micromanage has the speed to beat some of these.

I read on the Blood Horse that it is the 50th anniversary of Kelso's 5th consecutive win in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. (speaking of "old fashioned type stayers"). I was just a teenager there at Belmont watching that 7 year old gelding break a world record for 2 miles. Good old Kelso could kick butt at 7 furlongs or at 2 miles... it made no difference. I guess I have to give Micromanage credit for winning a race at 1 3/4 miles. That is quite a rare feat these days.

re: Bombs Away in the JC Gold Cup

BelmontBarb — Sat, 27 Sep 2014 00:35:13 GMT

Steve - I just love this analysis - totally exciting to me as is this Gold Cup.......Stepahnoatsee happy again under the best (of the best) trainer Nick(Zito) and Prayer for Relief who can run down his contenders if he kicks it in are outstanding to me and there is good cause to not overlook these two in this "Cup" that is wide-open. As your very appropriate title states "Bombs Away"........I do believe that the established Tonalist, Moreno, V.E. Day and Wicked Strong are vulnerable here although one would expect the better performance from these educated winners however there is much room for Micromanage and for that matter any of the unexpected ones that take the post Saturday. That's a good thing that this race was able to attract these that all have the ability resulting in a field that will promote a challenge and even a surprise. I stay with you that this is "Bombs Away"! and most probably a very good race to watch and/or make a plan ~

re: Bombs Away in the JC Gold Cup

nobledancer — Sat, 27 Sep 2014 00:16:41 GMT

As always, you present some great arguments and insights, Steve. I am going for Prayer for Relief.

re: Bombs Away in the JC Gold Cup

Daniel Jividen — Fri, 26 Sep 2014 22:52:21 GMT

Considering the fact that Belmont Park runs so many graded stakes at 10 furlongs why don't they re-open the old mile and a quarter chute? Starting these races in the turn is unfair and unsafe. I know the training track now encroaches on the old chute and that it is washed out and so on. But there are plenty of good civil engineers in NY. Why doesn't NYRA employ one to rebuild the 10 furlong chute and restore some sanity to races like the Jockey Club Gold Cup?

re: Bombs Away in the JC Gold Cup

Eric Rickard — Fri, 26 Sep 2014 21:57:59 GMT

I also like Micromanage. When I saw his debut at Saratoga, I was very impressed. However, he did not live up to that promise. He seems to be a class below the top tier horses. Your analysis is spot on for this race. I don't like the three year olds to win. I will play a Moreno/ VE Day/Micromanage.

re: Bombs Away in the JC Gold Cup

lawrence vaccarelli — Fri, 26 Sep 2014 21:30:00 GMT

Stephanoatsee, Micromanage, Prayer For Relief....sounds like a plan