Don't Take Woodward Too Lightly

re: Don't Take Woodward Too Lightly

LAZMANNICK — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 21:22:32 GMT

Bob Z

Good talking to you.....Let's hope Rachel wins by ten this weekend.....that would really be something.

re: Don't Take Woodward Too Lightly

Bob Z — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 20:55:13 GMT

LAZMANNICK,

Of course your thinking cuts it.

You wrote: Why don't 3 y-o fillies not only don't beat, but shy away from racing older males in a top grade dirt route race.

I don't know. Why did the owners of Rachel at the time Dolphus Morrison and Mike Lauffer and the trainer Hal Wiggins say that the girls should only compete against girls?

Thats my point I don't understand why its not more common for the girls to compete against the boys when the physical aspects like speed and stamina should dictate what happens.

Jess rolls in and depending on who you believe spends as much as 10 million for her and 2 weeks later has her running in the Preakness.

Why? Because he believes that she can win..

Why? Because at 1 3/16 he felt that that Rachels physical ability... speed and stamina for that distance was superior to the males..

So why don't more females take on the males?

Because they don't have the same physical attributes like a Rachel.

That's why as an uneducated outsider I believe we are witnessing greatness here.. But they have to run the race ... and anything can happen.. cheers..

re: Don't Take Woodward Too Lightly

LAZMANNICK — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 18:39:09 GMT

Bob Z

Whatever.....I guess my kind of thinking doesn't cut it although it would be really nice to know, Rachel or no Rachel, why don't 3 y-o fillies not only don't beat, but shy away from racing older males in a top grade dirt route race. And why do you have to go all the way back to Princessnesian in 1968 to see even an older filly defeat older males in a G-1 or equivalent at 1-1/4M on dirt? There must be something to it.

re: Don't Take Woodward Too Lightly

Bob Z — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 16:06:38 GMT

LAZMANNICK,

You wrote: There are also maturity and strength issues.

This is what I don't understand. Regarding strength, they aren't pulling weight other than their own and the jockey... its about speed and how long can that speed be maintained over distance.. which I guess is defined as stamina..

If Rachel has the stamina to go very fast for a distance of 1 1/8 which she obviously does because that is her preferred distance, I don't see where "strength" comes into play...

It doesn't matter that Summer Bird could possibly pull a cart with more weight in it thus being "stronger".

Its a test of speed over distance. That's why I don't think Rachel will be running at a 1 1/4 this year... because she has not been trained to go at speed at a distance of 1 1/4.

Any bumping that goes on during a race to me is more a mental or as you say a psychological issue than a strength issue which could possibly be enhanced through more maturity.

I agree with you in that there is probably horse psychology going on that we will never be privy to...

Thats what I meant when I said "what would happen if 2-3 horses come up along side Rachel during the first half mile and started eyeballing her...

I think that would be more of an issue after the 3/4 pole if there are 2-3 horses still with her ... as the gas tank gets used up there may be some horse psychology that says... "damn I'm running the same fast way I always do and now I have 2 horses right with me...

If you think about it.. Rachel has not had that happen to her.. early in the race.. yes like in the Haskell when they were 3 wide up to the 3/4 pole but after that there are only 2 possibilities ...

Either the other 2 ... Munnings and Summer Bird reached their stamina maximum of speed over distance and began slowing down with Rachel able to maintain it... or and this is scary.. the other horses were maintaining their speed and Rachel was accelerating. Or its also possible that Munnngs and Summer Bird were accelerating slightly.

If thats the case that means that Rachels rate of acceleration was much greater as she was able to open up to a 6 length lead. That means that Munnings and Summer Bird were not "psyched out" but gave it their physical all and still got dusted by 6 lengths.. that's even more scary..

Strength and power are not quite the same thing as power is force times speed... but based on what I have seen so far I believe it is safe to say that at 1 1/8 Rachel is the more powerful..because of her ability to accelerate... up to that distance..

At 1 1/4, possibly a different story.

We don't know yet...

If you think about Zenyatta she is usually 10 lengths behind meaning she is producing less output, less strength and power are being exerted.

Then when its time to run the strength and power are called on.

So hypothetically if Rachel and Zenyatta were to finish in a dead heat who would you say is the stronger or more powerful?

I would say Rachel because she maintained a higher output over a longer time... at 1 1/8..

Thats why its in Zenyattas best interest to try and get Rachel to run in a 1 1/4 race. Zenyattas power curve peaks at the end of the race. So at 1 1/8 I don't see Zenyatta beating Rachel. At the 1 1/4 we don't know about the depth of Rachels gas tank... but at the 1 1/8 I don't think anybody is going to beat her...

Good conversation, thanks.

re: Don't Take Woodward Too Lightly

jockeykid — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 15:17:23 GMT

go, rachel alexandra

re: Don't Take Woodward Too Lightly

Jockeykid — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 15:16:41 GMT

what's wrong with running a 3 year old filly with the older horses? I don't see anything in the rule books stating that 3 year olds shouldn't be running against older horses, especially fillies. I believe Jess Jackson is trying his best to prepare this filly to run races, for the fans of the racing industry. I don't see no easy way out. they are race horses that are competing against each other, and I certainly don't think that there is any easy way out. A horse could lose a horse at the starting gate, no matter what their competition is.

re: Don't Take Woodward Too Lightly

LAZMANNICK — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 09:15:44 GMT

Bob Z

Good points.

First, in racing 3 y-o fillies against older horses, in this case Rachel, I think it goes beyond mere ability. In my opinion, there seems to be something psychological going on that we will probably never understand, only the horses do. There are also maturity and strength issues. These are tangibles that have obviously played a part in the past…..otherwise given the years when the handicap division has been weak and there have been some strong fillies-mares out there, they would have tried to win a route G-1 race against older males more often.

As far as Rachel racing in the Beldame…..think about it. First off, I don’t think we will see Zenyatta come east, at least not at this point. However, if she did, it truly would mean that the Moss’s are tired of hearing that they are second best and really do think that they would win, even at 1-1/8M. And don’t forget about the other possibilities in that race…..Careless Jewel, Sara Louis, Icon Project, Musical Note and Game Face just to name a few.

Why, if Rachel should win the Woodward, would they run in this race and risk a loss when they wouldn’t have to? Jackson has already indicated that if she wins the Woodward she might shut down for the year and I can see that happening.

Anyway, just a thought…..lol

re: Don't Take Woodward Too Lightly

Bob Z — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 03:13:53 GMT

LAZMANNICK,

Mind you, I am a fan of Rachel but objectively I don't see her losing at 1 1/8. I look for it to be similar to the Haskell..

One thing that always confused me is this concept of older horses.. once a horse is schooled and knows how to run... they run .. period.

So assuming nothing crazy happens like a bad stumble coming out of the gate, I will assume that Rachel is either on the lead going into the first turn or just off of it conceding it to a horse going too fast like a 21 quarter pace.

In the Mother Goose she was actually 4 lengths behind Flashing and Malibu Prayer when they both went out and did the 1st quarter in 22.57 and the half in 44.66... Calvin was content to back Rachel off at the first quarter pole and drop back 4-5 lengths. The 3/4 was done at 1:08.86 and she finished the 1 1/8 at 146.33. My point is I don't see any of the other horses in the Woodward doing a 1:08.86 3/4 and then being able to match the acceleration that Rachel puts out when Calvin steps on the gas.

If there is no pace she will go to the front and cruise.. if the pace is too fast she drops back until just before the 3/4 and then overtakes the early speed horse...

Regarding getting bounced around by the older bigger horses... its tough to get bounced around when you are first out of the gate and able to rate your own pace.. if she gets out clean she is either gone or rating just behind the leader.. The only chance I see for the others would be to come right up alongside Rachel and go 3 wide and try to psyche her out.

About Zenyatta... If Rachel wins the Woodward and comes out healthy there is no way she doesn't go to the Beldame if Zenyatta goes to it.

After the purse was raised to entice them both and Jess just saying "If Zenyatta should come to the Beldame that would certainly direct us to that race."

Why would she not go?

The distance is her preferred distance of 1 1/8. Jess would have absolutely no case to make for not going...

A purse raised to a million bucks just to entice Rachel and Zenyatta at a distance you like, against the other female champion,... in New York, when you are already in New York and Zenyatta would have to travel...

That doesn't make any sense. He would have to go and I think he would want to. Just beat Zenyatta in the Beldame and call it a year.

If Zenyatta doesn't come east it comes down to either running in the Jockey Club or if Jess doesn't want to take on the 1 1/4 this year and save it for next year then she could be done after the Woodward.

Does it make any sense to go against the older mares in the Beldame if Zenyatta is not there if she just beat older males in the Woodward?

Other than beating Zenyatta if she went I would think that the Beldame would be a step down... why take the risk of an injury when the race doesn't prove anything.. unless you just want to show case her ...

Its going to be interesting.

I say Rachel by more than 3 lengths in the Woodward.

re: Don't Take Woodward Too Lightly

LAZMANNICK — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 23:42:25 GMT

Bob Z

Enjoyed your post.....I personally believe that if Rachel wins the Woodward we won't see her until next year even if Zenyatta comes east.....Zenyatta coming east at this time would only mean one thing.....they aren't afraid of Rachel.....in theory Rachel should win this weekend, but there is something to consider and that's history. No filly or mare ever won this race and few rarely tried. The difficulty for 3 y-o fillies when competing against G-1 older males is huge....lol

re: Don't Take Woodward Too Lightly

Bob Z — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 19:18:27 GMT

I am a huge Rachel Alexandra fan and I think Jess is the shrewdest mudder for how he has chosen Rachels career... but in reading between the lines this is what I've come up with..

Here are Jess' recent comments with translation...

Jess: "I look at the long term picture," said co-owner Jess Jackson about running in the Woodward. "I felt Rachel could have handled the Travers.

Me: Really? the 1 1/4 miles had nothing to do with it?

Jess: We had already defeated (Travers winner) Summer Bird and I felt Quality Road wasn't quite ready for her yet.

Me: Yes you defeated Summer Bird at your preferred distance of 1 1/8 not the 1 1/4 of the Travers... So you based your decision on one of the competitors (Quality Road) not being ready..?

Jess: But taking on older horses was the next defining factor. We're not discounting any of the horses in this race. These horses are the best of their age group."

Me: Yes. Its also at your preferred distance of 1 1/8 with no superstars entered in it...

Jess: 'Rachel' is working on an eight race winning streak, including all seven starts this year. Lifetime she has won 10 of 13 races for nearly $2.5 million.

"As we did with Curlin, history is always on our mind," Jackson noted about winning a second straight Woodward. "Every time she passes one of the hurdles we've given her we go on to the next. It's all about defining her greatness."

Jackson has strongly emphasized that his filly will not run on the artificial surface at Santa Anita Park, where the Breeders' Cup will again take place. During Tuesday's teleconference he left open 'Rachel's next start.

"We have several options, including the Beldame Stakes if Zenyatta should show up for that," Jackson said.

Me: So if I understand you would be ok with running another race like the Beldame at 1 1/8?

Jess: "But if she should win the Woodward, there would be no necessity to run her again.

Me: Well, if she was good to go in the Travers at 1 1/4 but she didn't because she already beat Summer Bird and Quality Road wouldn't be quality competition then why not do the obvious and run her in the Jockey Club Gold Cup at 1 1/4... You can meet Zenyatta there as the JCGC and the Beldame are on the same day..

Yes you beat Summer Bird at 1 1/8 at the Haskell but you haven't beaten him at 1 1/4 and didn't want to try at the Travers.. You beat a true 1 1/4 mile horse at your preferred distance of 1 1/8... so now kindly put this thing to bed and run in the Jockey Gold... Oh and that nice horse Quality Road that "wasn't ready" at the Travers will have had 5 weeks to rest up and get ready for the 1 1/4 at the Jockey Club..

Jess: She's a tired horse in a way, which is why we've been giving her long periods of time between races. We plan on racing her in 2010. It's going to be her decision whether she's ready to race after the Woodward. If Zenyatta should come to the Beldame that would certainly direct us to that race."

Me: If she wins the Woodward Jess only wants to run her at 1 1/8. If by some outside chance she doesn't win the Woodward then she must be a tired horse which sort of goes against what he just said that she has been getting plenty of rest time...

Also, Rachel is a tired horse but for a million bucks Rache can always catch up on her sleep after the Beldame.. so for a million dollars they are directed to the Beldame.. no Zenyatta, no million dollars then Rachel must be tired and the Woodard could be her last race as they duck the 1 1/4 until next year...

Okay so Rachel wins the Woodward handily... and wants to convey that she wants to run at 1 1/4... what is she going to do knock on the stall with her hoof 4 times?

I'm not getting something...

Here are the scenarios that I see...

Best Case.. Zenyatta enters the JCGC at 1 1/4 and Rachel accepts the challenge.. that would be the race of the year because of the 1 1/4.. If Rachel could beat Zenyatta and other older horses at 1 1/4 that would put her in some very rarified air...

Next Best.. Zenyatta stays in Cali and Rachel enters the JCGC and tries the older horses at 1 1/4.. If Rachel wins.. she is in the same rarified air.. and Zenyatta loses some prestige..

Third Best: Zenyatta enters the Beldame and Rachel and her duke it out for 1,000,000 at 1 1/8... Beating Zenyatta would be nice and it would be an "event" type of race but the 1 1/4 puts Rachel in the Stratosphere if she can win...

I personally think Jess is ducking the 1 1/4 as long as possible.. and now he can use the excuse of having a tired horse whether she wins the Woodward or not.. he is already setting the stage.. to be tired...

Maybe somebody could bump up the purse of the Jockey Club Gold Cup to the same as the Beldame... Zenyatta would have more advantage running down Rachel at the 1 1/4 than the 1 1/4... all the other logistics would be the same... travel, track, etc...

Like I said Jess is a very shrewd mudder!

Good Luck in the Woodward Rache!

re: Don't Take Woodward Too Lightly

BigWill — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 18:54:10 GMT

Draynay - Yes Bullsbay and Macho Again are grade 1 winners but you know what? So are horses like Dominican, Da'Tara, Frost Giant, Black Seventeen, Telling, and my personal favorite..MONBA. My point? There are Grade 1 Winners(Curlin, Big Brown, Rachel Alexandra, Summer Bird, Zenyatta, Gio Ponti) And then there are horses that cross the wire first in a grade 1 race. Not trying to diminish Rachel Alexandra in any way at all. She's just superior every horse in training (except for maybe 1) and this field of "grade 1 winners" won't be much of a test for her.

And Tiz the Best...I was unaware of the situation with Well Armed but thank you for bringing it to my attention.

re: Don't Take Woodward Too Lightly

shane — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 13:27:01 GMT

Oh...and when she does run 1 1/4....she will know their socks off. Just for the fact that she has a high cruising speed; if they let her go a 48 for the half or a 1:11 like they did on Saturday....please she will run them into the ground in the strech.....watch and see

re: Don't Take Woodward Too Lightly

shane — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 13:24:46 GMT

Guys, I will agree with Draynay on one point ....this filly is freakish and we dont know yet how good she will be. I think she is in the realm of a Secretariat and Ruffian. She just runs horses into the ground and if you watch the haskell and see how loose the reins were on her while laying right off munnings. you can see she is special. So we need to stop trying to knock her and enjoy racing.

re: Don't Take Woodward Too Lightly

Ranagulzion — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 00:14:23 GMT

VINCENT,

I endorse your defence of Holy Bull's outstanding 3YO campaign 100% (his is 2nd only to Secretariat IMO). It is funny how Draynay has often defended Rachel's narrow victory over MTB in the Preakness pointing to the fast fractions prompted by Big Drama in that race but scoffs at Holy Bull's herculean feat of running wicked splits to demolish Tabasco Cat's "rabbit" while sustaining his effort to withstand the stoutest stretch runner of that '94 crop, Concern, at 10Furlongs in the Travers. This is worth repeating: Holy Bull pulled it off at 10 FURLONGS.

Rachel has yet to accomplish that, and while I am not one of those who doubt her stamina, she has to DO IT in order to be ranked above Holy Bull as a 3YO. Her consistent authoritative performances are a huge asset on her resume' however, not scoring in top Grade 1 company at 10 FURLONGS has to be admitted as a liability, sticking out like a sore thumb when comparing her with the all time great 3YOs. Just keeping Draynay et al honest.

re: Don't Take Woodward Too Lightly

LAZMANNICK — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 23:43:27 GMT

Draynay:

I know Rachel is a filly and I applaud what she has accomplished so far.

Buckpasser didn't win the triple crown because he didn't compete (quarter crack).....He was, however, the winter book favorite and defeated the triple crown winners handily that same year.....His season started with a second in an allowance race to his stablemate (not pushed), then he realed off 13 consecutive stakes wins against the TOUGHEST horses in all the divisions, possible the greatest or at least top five greatest 3 y-o campaighns ever.....and as far as knowledgeable horsemen were concerned, Secretariat was the better horse and had a better 3 year-old campaign.

re: Don't Take Woodward Too Lightly

Ranagulzion — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 23:31:03 GMT

VINCENT,

I endorse your defence of Holy Bull's outstanding 3YO campaign 100% (his is second only to Secretariat IMO). It is funny how DRAYNAY has often defended Rachel's narrow victory in the Preakness using the fractions prompted by Big Drama but scoffs at the wicked splits that Holy Bull ran in the '94 Travers to put away the "rabbit" and still had enough to repel the stoutest stretch runner of that crop, Concern, in a 10 FURLONGS race. This is worth repeating, Holy Bull has done it at 10 FURLONGS! but our beloved Rachel Alexandra still has accomplish it on the track. We sincerely wish her the best racing luck and will be rooting for her. Just keeping DRAY honest.

re: Don't Take Woodward Too Lightly

Draynay — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 22:11:59 GMT

Vincent, I am not sure what you are talking about the Bull got passed right after the wire.

re: Don't Take Woodward Too Lightly

da3hoss — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 22:08:33 GMT

Vincent, you're right about HB...I remember after the KD, I looked at my husband and told him "it wasn't his today but this is going to be a great horse"....I'm always right about that stuff, you know ;-)

Dray, Rags almost had a perfect year, too, 'cept she hairline fractured a leg...we'll never know about her...

re: Don't Take Woodward Too Lightly

Ranagulzion — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 17:07:23 GMT

PAM S,

Enjoyed your "fairy dust" comment about Rachel ...funny but true. The vanquished are certainly paying tribute to "Alexandra The Great"

I sincerely hope that she comes out of the Woodward successful and well so that we can have the JCGC become the dirt race of the year (presumably on a dry Belmont surface). If she can top a JCGC field at 10 furlongs that includes a fit and ready Quality Road and Summer Bird (still improving), I wouldn't hesitate to classify her as one of the GREATEST thoroughbreds of all time.

re: Don't Take Woodward Too Lightly

Vincent — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 16:39:05 GMT

Draynay,

Once again, let it all play out and you will have a better argument.

As for your statement of Holy Bull just hanging on in the Travers...I'll quote Steve Haskin, "Although the Travers was Holy Bull's narrowest margin of victory, it was the race that stamped his true greatness. No Travers winner other than Man o' War had run three-quarters faster than Holy Bull, as he had to put away Tabasco Cat's rabbit."

In addition, I'll an even better source when jockey Jerry Bailey (rider of Concern) said after the race, "We could have gone around again and I wasn't going to pass him."

Once again, let it all play out and then you can measure true greatness. Comparing before that futile and foolish.

re: Don't Take Woodward Too Lightly

Draynay — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 15:46:46 GMT

Lazmannick, my grandfather took me to my first Derby in 1969. We went to many races together and he was a big Citation and Buckpasser fan. In 1973 when Secretariat was all the rage my grandfather would scoff and say, If Buck and Citation were around Red would never catch them. Bucks record is one to marvel at for sure but two things stick out. No Triple Crown wins and it was not a perfect year.

I think the other thing to remember Rachel is a FILLY. Not only is she doing things no filly has done she is doing things no colt has EVER done.

re: Don't Take Woodward Too Lightly

Tiz the best... — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 15:34:22 GMT

Hey Big WII... You do remember that Well Armed got hurt in the San Diego and had to have surgery, correct?...

re: Don't Take Woodward Too Lightly

Draynay — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 15:06:28 GMT

BigWill are we going to knock Bullsbay and Macho Again ? They are G1 winners. I don't see people knocking Prove Out who didn't even hit the BOARD in half his races. Why do we knock current G1 winners? There are some very very good 4 year old horses running right now and Gio Ponti, Macho Again, Bullsbay, and Colonel John deserve some respect compared to last years 4 year old crop. To diminish in any way Rachel taking on older G1 winning males just seems silly to me and does no one any good.

re: Don't Take Woodward Too Lightly

BigWIll — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 14:40:20 GMT

I don't think people realize whats happening here. Rachel Alexandra is not your average 3yo filly champion. Think about this: THE WORSE RACE OF HER CAMPAIGN WAS THE GRADE 1 PREAKNESS, IN WHICH SHE ONLY WON BY 3/4 OF A LENGTH, BEATING MALES AFTER ANNIHILATING FILLIES 2 WEEKS EARLIER IN THE GRADE 1 KENTUCKY OAKS. Beats Fillies casually by 20 lengths and beats colts casually by 6. Running in the Woodward is a great move. Great spacing between races and running against glorified allowance horses(aka lucky graded stakes winners) in a $750K Grade 1 at Saratoga is a perfect prep for her Beldame battle with Zenyatta (who is great in her own right). To be fair I only expect an 11 length win for Rachel in the Woodward.

And on to the Quality Road doubters. He ran 3rd in the Travers. Summer Bird is the top 3yo male. No shame in losing to him. Don't knock Quality Road, he'll get another major Grade 1 win under his belt between now and November 4th. And I think thats awesome being the 2nd best 3yo in your barn.

Back to a statement I touched on earlier about glorified allowance horses in the Woodward. When was the last time the handicap division was good? Aside from an aging Einstein, Who else is really a championship caliber horse ON DIRT? Well Armed?...Dubai World Cup was a joke, Still won by 14, but ran last in his return. Macho Again?...runs one drop-jaw ace a year. Bullsbay?...lol seriously??? Dry Martini, It's a Bird, Cool Coal Man, Da'Tara, Mast Track, Rail Trip, Colonel John, Tiago? None of these horses have superstar quality that can carry the division. Maybe I just got spoiled by Curlins handicap campaign, but I thought the Handicap division was supposed to be better. I know the Breeding game plays a major role and thats why I look forward to next year when there will actually be a stellar handicap division: Dunkirk(My front runner for horse of the year), Mine That Bird, I WANT REVENGE, The Pamplemousse, Kensei, Munnings, Misremembered, Charitable Man, Rachel Alexandra and if we're lucky Summer Bird and Quality Road will be back as well. Next year will be an amazing year for racing!

re: Don't Take Woodward Too Lightly

Tiz the best... — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 14:33:23 GMT

Bullsbay all the way... He is a rapidly developing colt...