Keeping Pace

Cards Play

2021-06-29T13:35:00Z

In horse racing's year of resiliency in 2020 as its network of advance-deposit wagering outlets allowed customers to wager on the sport from home while horsemen and tracks found a way to continue to offer racing, a long-standing effort by the National Thoroughbred Racing Association proved an unsung hero.

One of the NTRA's key legislative efforts in recent years has been to educate financial institutions on racing's legal ability to conduct interstate pari-mutuel wagering in an effort to have those institutions approve credit card (and debit card) transactions to fund wagering accounts. In 2018 the NTRA scored a major victory on this front when JPMorgan Chase & Co. began to recognize these transactions. With more than 80 million accounts, Chase is the largest card issuer in the United States. Chase approved the industry's merchant category code of 7802.

That success followed the NTRA having its Congressional allies meet with major credit card-issuing banks that had disallowed ADW transactions on their cards, stressing the importance of the ADW sector for racing and the economic significance of the equine industry. When Chase issued its decision, NTRA president and CEO Alex Waldrop acknowledged the efforts of Rep. Andy Barr (Republican, Kentucky).

Between Chase's approval and other card companies following in its path, the industry was well-positioned to have funding mechanisms in place as COVID-19 protocols forced racing to make its colossal shift to ADW in 2020. As other sports and gambling shut down, racing picked up some new customers as the only game in town. For new players, having a secure transaction they trust is critical, making the effort to allow credit card funding especially important for racing. One can imagine new players having some nervousness about making that first deposit. Knowing their financial institution recognizes the transaction would provide some added sense of security.

Total pari-mutuel wagering on United States races in 2020 dropped less than 1%, despite a 23.5% decline in races because of dates lost to pandemic protocols. The ADW platforms, and having options that customers are comfortable with to fund those accounts, surely played a part in that success. In its 2020 Legislative Annual Report released last month, the NTRA said it believes the credit card effort has, "had a significant and positive impact on overall U.S. pari-mutuel handle, particularly advance-deposit wagering."

This year the NTRA plans to continue its advocacy efforts on behalf of industry ADWs. It will seek a legislative solution in the form of updated language to clarify that the Wire Act of 1961 specifically applies to racketeering, not transactions made permissible by the Interstate Horseracing Act.

In its annual legislative report, the NTRA noted that its Legislative Action Campaign raises money through three programs: the 1/4% check-off program, the foal program, and the National Horseplayers Championship Tour.

In the check-off program, buyers and sellers at Keeneland, Fasig-Tipton, Ocala Breeders' Sales, California Thoroughbred Breeders Association, and Washington Thoroughbred Breeders and Owners Association pledge 0.25% of the price of their horses sold. Every $1,000 in a horse's sale price equates to $2.50 for the campaign.

The above is a recent Dollars and Sense column, which runs every other Tuesday in BloodHorse Daily. The next edition will appear July 6. Some other recent editions follow.

Triple Crown Again Delivers for Racing

Score one for timing.

Racing fans enthusiastically supported a return of the Triple Crown races to their usual slot on the calendar, a slot that just so happened to coincide with the country's emergence from the COVID-19 pandemic, thanks to widespread vaccinations.

All-sources handle on two of the three events and race days, the Preakness Stakes (G1) and the Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets (G1), each enjoyed significant gains compared with 2019, the most recent year the races were conducted on their traditional dates. That was enough to help the three-race series gain just over 1% in wagering on the races and race days.

While a 1% gain might not sound like much, it is a particularly strong performance, considering that the host tracks limited attendance in 2021 after not permitting fans in 2020 due to the pandemic. While some fans were able to attend the races this year, the limits kept attendance well under the normal numbers enjoyed in 2019.

The one event that saw a decline compared with 2019, the Kentucky Derby, was most impacted, considering it draws the largest crowds. That said, the Derby held its own. The $233 million wagered on Derby Day 2021 is the second-highest total in history, trailing only 2019.

While the Triple Crown draws eyeballs to the sport every year, this year's events timed up well with a nation working to emerge from the pandemic. The success of the series also might signal a sport ready to take full advantage of the relative 2020 success it enjoyed during the pandemic when compared with other sports. Last year the advance-deposit wagering platforms in place for racing allowed bettors to continue to wager on the sport. As just about the only game in town for several months, the sport picked up new interest.

Despite a 25% decline in race days in 2020 compared with 2021, last year's total wagering on the sport declined less than 1%. This year's challenge is to see whether racing can continue that support from online bettors as other sports also return to normalcy.

Beyond that, as racing begins to welcome back fans, maybe some of those online fans will be interested in attending the sport's biggest events—eventually translating to increased on-track interest. This year's Triple Crown suggests the sport is moving toward those goals. Even better news: It appears that race fans are sticking around for the everyday events.

Despite the $10 million decline in wagering on the Derby Day card this year compared with 2019, wagering on all U.S. races in May 2021 was up 8.8% to about $1.42 billion when compared with May 2019. Through May this year, wagering was up nearly 13% to about $5.3 billion when compared with the first five months of 2019.

Fine Print, Changing World

One need only read the Churchill Downs Inc. annual report to understand the changing world for owners of outdoor properties like racetracks.

Publicly traded companies report their risk factors to analysts and investors. A 2020 update on these risk factors in the 2020 CDI annual report notes increased concern of severe weather associated with climate change as well as lessons from a difficult 2020.

"Since horse racing is conducted outdoors, unfavorable weather conditions, including extremely high and low temperatures, heavy rains, high winds, storms, tornadoes, and hurricanes, could cause events to be canceled and/or attendance to be lower, resulting in reduced wagering," the risk factor analysis reads. "Climate change could have an impact on longer-term natural weather trends. Extreme weather events that are linked to rising temperatures, changing global weather patterns, sea, land, and air temperatures, as well as sea levels, rain, and snow could result in increased occurrence and severity of adverse weather events. Our operations are subject to reduced patronage, disruptions, or complete cessation of operations due to weather conditions, natural disasters, and other casualties. The occurrence or threat of any such extraordinary event at our locations, particularly at Churchill Downs Racetrack and Kentucky Derby and Oaks week, could have a material negative effect on our business and results of operations."

These updates are in line with what I reported in the Dec. 12, 2020, issue of BloodHorse on the impact of climate change on racetracks, as hurricanes and severe weather have caused significant damage to a number of North American tracks in recent years.

CDI is all too familiar with the risks of severe weather. In 2004 the track owner completed a purchase of Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots, as well as its 11 off-track betting outlets. On Aug. 29, 2005, Hurricane Katrina caused significant damage to the track facility and the OTBs. According to company filings, CDI paid a $500,000 deductible related to recoveries from damages. Based on CDI filings in 2007 and 2008, insurance recovery payments for both property damage and business interruptions for the Fair Grounds operations reached $41.5 million.

Fair Grounds wasn't the only CDI-owned track to sustain significant damage from a hurricane in 2005. Hurricane Wilma in the Miami area caused $4 million in damage to Calder Race Course. In annual reports that would follow soon after, CDI included a note for investors that insurance costs would be going up.

Other updates in the 2020 annual report risk analysis are all too familiar following the challenges of 2020.

"A major epidemic or pandemic, outbreak of a contagious equine disease, or the threat of such an event, could also adversely affect attendance and could impact the supply chain for our major construction projects resulting in higher costs and delays of the projects. The COVID-19 global pandemic resulted in the temporary suspension of operations of all of our wholly owned gaming properties, certain wholly owned racing operations, and the two casino properties related to our equity investments," the analysis reads. "Even though our properties have reopened, such properties continue to be subject to operational restrictions that may impact attendance."

In 2020, Churchill Downs saw first-hand the impact of protests. On Kentucky Derby day 2020, protests took place as marchers made their way in late afternoon from downtown to the Downs, where they were met with a heavy presence by the Louisville Metro Police Department. The protests followed the March 13 death of Breonna Taylor in Louisville. Just days following heightened preparedness that shut down the country due to COVID-19, the city was rocked by Taylor's death during execution of a "no knock" warrant being served by LMPD.

Protests against the local police and local government continued for more than 100 days. Protests turned to rioting following the May 25 death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, and the city became one of the nation's flashpoints in the call for social justice. "Riots, civil insurrection, or social unrest could adversely affect attendance," the analysis reads. "For example, during the second and third quarters of 2020, certain areas of Louisville, Ky., experienced sustained protests and civil unrest. Similar events in the future could adversely affect attendance at Churchill Downs Racetrack. While we are constantly evaluating our security precautions in an effort to ensure the safety of the public, no security measures can guarantee safety and there can be no assurances of avoiding potential liabilities."

While I covered many of these topics in the past year, I have to credit regular BloodHorse contributor Greg Hall for noticing the update in the CDI report and passing it along to me. Sometimes the fine print tells a big story.

Essential Quality's Preps, as in Prepared

2021-04-26T15:15:00Z

In terms of today's methods of preparing Thoroughbreds for the spring classics, Essential Quality has gained about as much experience in his five starts before this year's Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) as any horse could expect.

With horses no longer building toward the Derby through a long series of races at 2 and 3, it's entirely possible to see a horse enter the 1 1/4-mile test who hasn't faced challenges like an off-track, different pace scenarios, or travel. Besides winning all five of his career starts, Godolphin homebred Essential Quality has picked up a wealth of experience.

Track surface

Essential Quality has raced on fast tracks in four of his starts but in the Southwest Stakes (G3) Feb. 27 at Oaklawn Park, the son of Tapit handled a sloppy track as he rated in fourth early before taking command off the final turn and drawing away to a 4 1/4-length victory. For me that effort was especially impressive in that Essential Quality started from the rail on a day the inside lanes appeared to be a bog. Essential Quality willingly was guided out into the four path by regular rider Luis Saez for both turns where he found the off going to his liking.

Pace

In his five races beginning with a debut maiden win on Derby Day 2020--the first Saturday in September at Churchill Downs--Essential Quality has shown an ability to adjust his running style to fit the race. He rallied from nine lengths back to win the TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile Presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance (G1) but in winning the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G2) and last year's Claiborne Breeders' Futurity (G1), he dueled with the early leader. As noted earlier, he rallied from fourth in the Southwest. "Every race has been different," said trainer Brad Cox. "The first race he was sprinting and he was tracking, taking dirt from horses. He went through a tight spot down the lane to win (at six furlongs) going away with a big gallop out. In the Breeders' Futurity, he was up close with just that one horse, then he kicked clear down the lane and had a huge gallop out. "In the Breeders' Cup, they obviously got away from him with a fast pace up front. He just couldn't keep up early. He was wide around both turns then circled the field and got up in the short stretch at Keeneland--the mile-and-a-sixteenth is a short stretch--and once again an impressive gallop out. "Then in the Southwest, he was able to sit close to a moderate pace and just kind of sit in a great spot in the mud then kicked down the lane. Then he had a very similar trip in the Blue Grass, with a fast track.

Field size

While there's probably no preparing for a 20-horse Derby field, Essential Quality did start in the 14-horse Juvenile.

Travel

Essential Quality has thrived in making four of his five starts and doing most of his training in Kentucky but trainer Cox did make sure the colt out of Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality, hit the road for one start--his Southwest Stakes score. Of course the good news for Essential Quality is he won't need to build on that experience in the Derby as he'll stay at home for his first start at Churchill since a debut four-length win last September. Cox said Essential Quality's adaptability to those different experiences, changing pace scenarios, off tracks, etc., should be a strength in the Derby. "He's obviously able to adapt to the pace. If it's hot, he can set off of it and come running. Or if it's moderate, he can be closer up on it and still finish," Cox said. "He's very adaptable, and that's exactly what you want to see with a horse in the Kentucky Derby as far as I'm concerned."

As five races go, Essential Quality has seen a lot ... and shown a lot.

Pointed Return

2021-03-26T19:36:00Z

Starting with a full allotment of Road to the Kentucky Derby points for its signature race, things are looking up for the $250,000 Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) and its host track, Turfway Park racing and gaming.

The track, at this point, is only a track. The razed grandstand is being replaced by a new facility that Turfway broke ground on a week ago. Still, even without that grandstand or fans, the Jeff Ruby will go forward Saturday with the important foundation of those aforementioned Derby qualifying points.

In terms of qualifying for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1), the Jeff Ruby returns to the main stage this season. It will offer top tier Road to the Kentucky Derby points of 100-40-20-10 to its top four finishers. That structure is equal to any Derby prep race out there, on par with the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G2), Runhappy Santa Anita Derby (G1), and other major preps in the points system used to determine the Derby field.

The upgrade in points follows the purchase of Turfway by Churchill Downs Inc. in October 2019. While it's fair to question why a change in track ownership should spur a change in race stature in terms of qualifying points--the race in recent years had seen its points reduced to just 20-8-4-2--this move should help return the race to relevance on the Derby trail.

While the synthetic surface at Turfway likely will dissuade some of the country's established dirt runners from entering the Jeff Ruby, I like the idea that there's a major prep on a synthetic surface. It's a great opportunity for horses who have shown success on the many synthetic surfaces throughout the country, as well as Woodbine, or on turf, to qualify to take a shot on the dirt in the Derby.

It's the path Animal Kingdom blazed to Derby victory in 2011 when the son of Leroidesanimaux (BRZ) won his stakes debut in the Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (the Jeff Ruby has had many changing names thanks to sponsorships that have included Jim Beam and Gallery Furniture), after two runner-up finishes and a win racing on synthetic surfaces and turf.

That season was before Churchill Downs had put the points system in place but the $285,000 in graded stakes earnings (the Spiral featured a $500,000 purse in 2011) secured Animal Kingdom a spot in the Derby. After an impressive workout on the Churchill dirt a week before the Derby, trainer Graham Motion and owner Team Valor decided to enter. Animal Kingdom would deliver a powerful stretch run to win by 2 3/4 lengths.

The 100-40-20-10 format ensures this year's Jeff Ruby winner a spot in the Derby field, if desired. Trainer Billy Morey conditions Hush of a Storm, who enters the Jeff Ruby off three straight wins, including a clear victory in the prep race, the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes, where he earned 10 Kentucky Derby qualifying points. Morey likes that Churchill has provided this path to the Derby.

"It's great to see Churchill support the racing here at Turfway Park; the horsemen who stay in Kentucky," Morey said. "The points and the commitment to purses is helping the year-long circuit."

Turfway Park general manager Chip Bach also welcomes the points upgrade.

"It just demonstrates the commitment that Churchill has for this track," Bach said. "They know that this track is going to be vital; a very vital part of the Thoroughbred horse racing picture in Kentucky. I just can't say enough about how excited I am to be able to offer those type of points for our big race and to see what our big race looks like two, three, and four years from now."

Beyond the winner being ensured a spot in the Derby field if desired, the current points system likely also ensures the runner-up a spot. Granted, that may be a bit much for a $250,000 race on a synthetic surface but, like Bach mentioned, keep an eye on where this race is headed in the upcoming years.

It's not a reach to think that this race will soon see a purse upgrade as historical horse racing machines have come online at Turfway-affiliated Newport City Gaming and will be added at the track when the new facility is completed in the spring or summer of 2022. CDI already has upgraded the overnight purses at Turfway, which has resulted in big fields and strong handle. It made sense to first boost the everyday racing. Increased purses for stakes like the Jeff Ruby will soon follow.

"We anticipate our purse structure to be phenomenal," Bach said. "With that 100 points to the winner structure for the Jeff Ruby, we will make sure that the race has a purse structure similar to other points races of that level at other tracks."

There also is still some possibility that Turfway could add a dirt oval--an option Bach said is being thought about. If the Jeff Ruby were switched to dirt, that would eliminate the race as an opportunity for turf and synthetic horses, but it would figure to draw some of the top dirt horses in the country. When you think about a dirt race, with that points structure, an increased purse, and a prime spot on the calendar considering how horses are prepared for the Derby these days, it could return the Jeff Ruby to a major stop on the Derby trail.

The Greater Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky area deserves a major Derby prep race and those fans have supported this race when it held that stature. It's an area that routinely generates strong television ratings for racing's major events and supports a pair of tracks in Turfway and Belterra Park. Among the stars to win the Jeff Ruby, under its various names, have been Derby winners Animal Kingdom and Lil E. Tee, classic winners Hansel, Prairie Bayou, and Summer Squall, as well as champion 3-year-old filly Serena's Song.

It's the type of event that fans would be willing to pay for admission and premium seating, which would benefit Turfway/CDI. Another big race day--or in this case restoration of a big race day--can only be a good thing.

A Shift in Derby Running Styles

2021-03-12T20:30:00Z

If one of the horses with early speed entered in the $1 million Rebel Stakes (G2) March 13 at Oaklawn Park is able to emerge with a victory in the 1 1/16-mile race, they figure to be a good fit for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1).

I'm basing that "good fit for the Derby" statement on the fact that on paper an easy lead doesn't seem likely Saturday as a number of runners with early foot are entered. A horse on or pressing the lead Saturday will likely have to deliver a top performance to secure victory. If a horse is able to do that in the Rebel, he would have the right running style for the Derby based on recent editions of the 1 1/4-mile classic.

In the Rebel, runaway Smarty Jones Stakes winner Caddo River is entered, as is San Vicente Stakes (G2) winner Concert Tour shipping in from Southern California, and several other runners with early foot. In his two races at a mile, Caddo River has led at every point of call. Concert Tour will try two turns for the first time after winning on the front end in a six-furlong sprint then pressing early before winning the seven-furlong San Vicente. Saturday's pace figures to be quick.

The connections of Keepmeinmind will hope a strong early pace sets up the late run of their charge, who will be making his first start since rallying from ninth to win last year's Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) in November at Churchill Downs.

In terms of Derby day though, the horses who lead early or contest the pace have fared very well since 2013 when Churchill effectively removed sprinters from consideration by making its Road to the Kentucky Derby points races all route races. Granted, horses who race on or near the lead possess the preferred racing style in American dirt racing, but horses with this running style have not always fared well in the Derby until recent years.

Let's look at recent history:

Last year Authentic seized the lead the first time under the wire, opened a clear advantage, held off a challenge from Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets (G1) winner Tiz the Law, and delivered a 1 1/4-length score.
In 2019 Maximum Security reached the wire first after establishing an early lead. He would be disqualified for interference in the far turn but otherwise his 1 3/4-length victory would fit the recent pattern. Country House, who rallied from ninth to finish second, would pick up the win after the DQ.

Justify pressed Promises Fulfilled early before seizing the lead and delivering a 2 1/2-length victory in 2018. That nearly replicated the performance of Always Dreaming's path to Derby glory in 2017. Nyquist pressed from second or third in his Derby win in 2016 after American Pharoah tracked from third in 2015 as did California Chrome in 2014.

In the past seven editions of the Derby, the furthest back that any horse to reach the wire first has raced has been third.

To date, the lone exception in running style since Churchill emphasized route races in determining the field came in the first year when Orb rallied from 17th to score by 2 1/2 lengths. In fact, at the half mile pole that year, the top three finishers were 17th, 15th (Golden Soul), and 18th (Revolutionary). Early leader Palace Malice blazed a half-mile in a too-fast :45.33 on the sloppy and sealed track. He would bounce back to win the Belmont.
As for the winners in the 10 editions of the Derby from 2003-12, all rallied from fourth or further back. Three editions were won by deep closers: Mine That Bird rallied from 19th in 2009, Street Sense from 19th in 2007, and Giacomo from 18th in 2005.

I'll Have Another punched through from seventh in 2012, Animal Kingdom from 12th in 2011, and Super Saver (2010) and Big Brown (2008) each raced sixth early.

Even runners with early speed like Barbaro (2006), Smarty Jones (2004), and Funny Cide (2003), raced in fourth early. Granted, in some of these cases these horses were tracking early sprinter-type runners. If these three Derby winners had run since 2013, they may have raced a position or two closer in the early going.

To date this year the most impressive early-speed type runner on this year's Road to the Kentucky Derby has been Life Is Good, who overwhelmed six rivals in the San Felipe Stakes (G2).

Current points leader Greatest Honour is a late runner, but if he's the horse you're pulling for; all is not lost. Greatest Honour is trained by Shug McGaughey, who sent out Orb for the off-the-pace win in 2013.

(This blog originally ran in BloodHorse Daily.)

Fountain of Youth Card Should be Attractive to New Fans

2021-02-26T14:45:00Z

Considering a percentage of sports fans discovered the joys of betting horse races from home last year as racing continued when some other sports halted activity during the COVID-19, I'm looking forward to seeing if racing can build on that opportunity during the excitement of the Road to the Kentucky Derby season.

As racing tries to retain those new fans and add more this spring, I like that so many tracks have shifted to the big day approach. As fans tune in to see this year's Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) take shape, they'll also have the opportunity to see top horses in other divisions. While some core fans who wager a few dollars every day may lament the loading of so many top events on select Saturdays, I suspect such bonanzas will play well with fans who are still picking up the sport.

Asking new fans to spend a few hours with racing on a Saturday seems more likely to get a positive response when a track rolls out top race after top race. Gulfstream Park will provide that type of menu Feb. 27 with the $300,000 Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) closing out a 14-race card that will feature nine stakes with purses exceeding $1.1 million. It will be the seventh straight year that the Fountain of Youth has featured the big-day approach at Gulfstream.

Way back when--actually, in 2014--the Fountain of Youth was just one of three stakes on the card. That had been the norm for years. Ten years ago the Fountain of Youth card featured just three stakes. And 20 years ago the Fountain of Youth was the lone stakes on the card! Granted, to fully understand the advantages and disadvantages of the big day approach would require study of how much the days that lose those stakes see drops in handle; just looking at the Saturday race days in question suggest the big-day approach is working. Handle for the 2020 Fountain of Youth Day at Gulfstream--featuring nine stakes--reached $36,522,389. That is up 76% from the most recent non-big race day approach for the Fountain of Youth in 2014 when handle was at $20,756,939. The 2011 and 2001 handle figures were similar at $14,910,825 and $14,591,138, respectively.

On the track, Greatest Honour is the 9-5 morning-line favorite for the Fountain of Youth off his easy victory in the Jan. 30 Holy Bull Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream. Greatest Honour is trained by Shug McGaughey, who also trained the most recent Fountain of Youth winner to go on to win the Kentucky Derby in Orb, who won both races in 2013. The Fountain of Youth is the second Road to the Kentucky Derby race to offer 85 points this season (50-20-10-5 for the top four places), following the Risen Star Stakes Presented by Lamarque Ford (G2) Feb. 13 at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots. The Risen Star also featured a big day approach, with six stakes races.

This column originally appeared in the Feb. 26 BloodHorse Daily where it is sponsored by Gainesway. The Daily also includes points standings and a schedule of upcoming points races.

Paddock Pals and Other Old Friends

2021-02-10T16:19:00Z

Because of the pandemic my usual visits to Old Friends have been curtailed and I haven’t even had a work-related reason to visit the original Georgetown, Ky. farm in some time.

Believe me, I usually find reasons to visit the farm and its impressive roster of horses.

So I found a bounce in my step when a recent winter Friday presented a great opportunity for a visit and to catch up on some of the stories going on at Old Friends with the Thoroughbred retirement farm’s founder Michael Blowen. The day already was a bit of a first as I’d never been to the farm with snow on the ground. Fortunately temperatures had improved to the level of being tolerable, allowing for an amazing setting of rolling hills covered in white.

As usual, I arrived early. After parking by the visitor’s center, I started to walk on the path toward the barn. As I walked, Nicanor made his way across the field to pay a visit. I didn’t recall Barbaro’s full brother previously visiting me so I was a bit surprised and ventured to the fence to greet him. After a few moments, I headed back to the path.

Next up would be my favorite Old Friends resident, Game On Dude. As usual, the eight-time grade 1 winner hustled from the middle of the field to see me. But I wasn’t sure who his paddock pal was joining him on the run. I looked at the bridle of his new friend to discover it was 2012 Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1T) winner Little Mike. I let Game On Dude know that I had again nominated him to the Racing Hall of Fame. He seemed pleased and ever-patient.

I walked up to the barn and didn’t see Michael. Soon a text showed up on my phone explaining he’d be a little late. No need for an apology, as there is plenty to do. I headed over to see Silver Charm, who also made his way to the fence. I thought, maybe with a decline in visitors this year because of COVID-19 restrictions, all of the horses were glad to see me today. It wouldn’t be accurate to say that Silver Charm’s coat doesn’t show his age a bit. But incredibly, his personality and sharp mind haven’t changed. Later in the day, Michael would show me that the 27-year-old dual classic winner still gets around great.

[brightcove videoid="6230591275001"]

In this video, I love how initially Silver Charm’s head is almost camouflaged, only to emerge as he gallops to the fence. Silver Charm won the first Kentucky Derby (G1) I ever attended in person. So to be able to see him to this day is such a blessing.

After Michael arrives, we visit Old Friends’ newest arrival, Bellamy Road. As we make our way over, the big son of Concerto who turned the 2005 Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) into a virtual walkover, has set up shop on the highest corner of his paddock, looking over the snow-covered, fence-lined paddocks beyond like Simba on that cliff in The Lion King.

Next we check in with a couple of horses I’ve written stories about since their arrival at Old Friends in Green Mask and Alphabet Soup. Both are doing well. I let Green Mask know that turf sprints are my favorite races to wager. He seems impressed with my taste in races.

Another turf sprinter awaits. In these COVID days where it’s been difficult to stay in touch with human friends, Michael shared with me the story of 2018 champion turf male Stormy Liberal, who has settled in after finding a friend in Patch.

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A theme of equine friendships would emerge on this day. It’s been so long since I’ve visited that I haven’t even seen Birdstone. I was in the press box on that strangest of Belmont Stakes (G1) days when Birdstone reminded everyone of his class—even if it disappointed many as he halted the Triple Crown bid of Smarty Jones. He would prove winning the year’s third classic was no fluke when in the summer he overwhelmed six rivals in the Travers Stakes (G1). Amazingly, Blowen believes Birdstone has recognized a true old friend in former Nick Zito stablemate Sun King. The two have adjoining paddocks and one day Blowen noticed Birdstone mirroring Sun King.

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Get this, Sun King doesn’t like the rain! That’s just perfect. Michael wraps up the story of the new old friends for us and our visit on this day.

[brightcove videoid="6230591075001"]

Kentucky Downs Race Raises Questions on Entry DQs

2020-09-15T18:50:00Z

I believe a stewards’ ruling on a recent race at Kentucky Downs failed to follow the state policies in place on disqualifications when an entry is involved, although chief steward Barbara Borden believes the rule gives them latitude on such matters.

As it turns out, even when given that latitude—which I don’t think is there—I still think they got it wrong.

To the stewards’ credit, they also released an explanation of the call and provided me with a follow-up explanation. I also should mention that I wagered to win on Summer Palace in this race, but as winner Glynn County was not involved in any of the issues I’m about to outline, my wager was not affected either way.

All that said, let’s start with the incident in question.

In the second race Saturday, Sept. 12 at Kentucky Downs, a one-mile maiden special for 3-year-olds and older, Rochambeau and Briefcase Bully started as an entry. David Ingordo is the owner of Briefcase Bully and co-owner, with Manganaro Bloodstock, of Rochambeau. Both horses are trained by Cherie DeVaux.

Rochambeau seized the lead in the far turn and opened a clear advantage in the stretch, but soon Glynn County would challenge on the outside while Summer Palace, with Jose Ortiz up, would attempt a rail rally. Summer Palace edged up inside to challenge Rochambeau, Tyler Gaffalione up, when that one swerved hard to the inside forcing Ortiz to steady hard.

Uninvolved in the incident, Glynn County would surge to a two-length victory while Rochambeau would reach the wire second. After Summer Palace had to steady hard, Rochambeau’s entry mate, Briefcase Bully, would surge past and finish third, 2 3/4 lengths in front of fourth-place Summer Palace.

After the race, Ortiz filed an objection. After the stewards reviewed that objection, they ruled that Gaffalione had interfered with Ortiz and they disqualified Rochambeau to fourth, behind Summer Palace, awarding him third. I agree with all of this except I think Summer Palace also should have been placed in front of Rochambeau’s entry mate, Briefcase Bully based on BOTH curent Kentucky rules and on how the race played out.

As entries have become rare, such incidents are thankfully even more rare but they do come up. Borden said Kentucky stewards have discretion in such matters and that Kentucky regulations do not require them to put a horse that’s interfered with by an entry mate behind both (or all) parts of an entry. In reading the regulation, I would disagree.

The rule says, “In determining the extent of disqualification, the stewards shall consider the seriousness and circumstances of the incident and may:”

The rule then lists six different actions that the stewards can take. Those actions are:

“(a) Disqualify and place the offending horse, and any horses coupled with it as an entry, behind any horse that may have suffered by reason of the foul;”

“(b) Disqualify and declare the offending horse, and any horses coupled with it as an entry, unplaced;”

“(c) Disqualify the offending horse, and any horses coupled with it as an entry, from participation in all or any part of the purse;”

“(d) Declare void a track record set or equaled by a disqualified horse, or any horses coupled with it as an entry;”

“(e) Affirm the placing judges' order of finish and suspend the jockey if, in the stewards' opinion, the foul riding had no effect on the order of finish;”

“or (f) Disqualify the offending horse and not suspend the jockey if, in the stewards' opinion, the interference to another horse in a race was not the result of an intentional foul or careless riding on the part of the jockey.”

Borden told me the foul was a result of careless riding so “f” doesn’t apply. “e” also does not apply as the stewards did make a change to the order of finish. There was no track record in this case so “d” also does not apply.

When we look at the three other options that involve disqualification or removing a placing, the Kentucky stewards can carry out after an objection is filed, a, b, and c are the three options and all three require action against the “offending horse, and any horses coupled with it as an entry, behind any horse that may have suffered by reason of the foul.”

In the case of this race, the stewards placed Summer Palace ahead of the horse and rider that committed the foul, Rochambeau. This is in line with option “a” but the stewards failed to follow the rule as outlined for option “a” which requires the offending horse, and any horses coupled with it as an entry, be placed behind any horse that may have suffered by reason of the foul. The rule is very specific that a horse fouled by an entry mate be placed in front of the horse and rider who committed the foul and any of its entry mates. It reads this way for a, b, and c, suggesting that this was a point of emphasis for the rulemakers.

I suspect the stewards are reading the “may” which comes ahead of the six different options as giving them latitude. I think this is a completely inaccurate reading of the rule. By my reading, “may,” as it’s used here, sets up the six different options that they MAY take. So among those options, any option that sees the stewards change the order of finish, which is what they did here, requires a horse affected by the interference to be placed ahead of the horse that interfered with it AND any of its entry mates.

There is no option in the rules for what the stewards did in this case: placing the horse who was interfered with ahead of the horse who caused the interference but not its entry mate.

I don’t think the stewards have the option to make the choice they made. Furthermore, I also don’t agree with the ruling the stewards made even if they do have this option.

Here is how they explained the decision on the Kentucky Downs site:

“An objection was lodged by the rider of fourth place #4 “Summer Palace” (Jose Ortiz) alleging interference by the rider of second place #1a “Rochambeau” (Tyler Gaffalione) in the stretch. After reviewing the race replay and interviewing the riders, the stewards determined that #1a drifted in and impeded #4 who was forced to take up. For the interference #1a was disqualified from second and placed fourth, behind #4. In addition the stewards determined that the actions of the rider of #1a were not intended to benefit the stablemate #1, who was therefore not included in the disqualification.”

I talked with Borden Saturday and she emphasized that the stewards did discuss the entry mate issues involved and determined that there was no intention by Gaffalione to commit a foul in order to help his entry mate. I am glad that they considered these issues but their ultimate decision, to me, still seems misguided. So if this discretion in fact exists, I think the standard should be “who benefitted?” as opposed to intention.

So let’s again look at how the late stages of the race played out.

At the quarter pole, Summer Palace was 1 ½ lengths behind Briefcase Bully and charged past that one like he was standing still in the stretch, quickly opening up 1 ½ lengths on Briefcase Bully in midstretch. If Summer Palace had not been fouled by Briefcase Bully's entrymate, Rochambeau, it's highly unlikely that Briefcase Bully would have finished ahead of Summer Palace. So it’s fair to say Briefcase Bully benefitted from the foul committed by his entry mate. I agree that it’s unlikely Gaffalione intentionally committed a foul to help his entry mate but why should intention matter? The foul benefitted his entry mate and Summer Palace should have been placed second, ahead of both entry mates.

So I think even on the judgment call, the stewards got it wrong.

But as we already discussed, I think Kentucky rules require the stewards to put a horse interfered with by a horse who is part of an entry ahead of that horse and all its entry mates. These rules likely were written that way to not force the stewards to make the difficult judgment calls that they’re now making, and in this case, getting wrong.

As a further example, we can look at medication rules. For instance, stewards have disqualified horses who mistakenly raced on an illegal substance—say because of environmental contamination—even though no owner or trainer intended for that horse to race on that substance. In these cases, intention is not the standard as the horse is still disqualified, although a lack of intention can mitigate penalties for the trainer. Carrying this over to interference calls involving entry mates, the intention of a rider should not be a factor in these types of calls.

As it is, I think if Kentucky regulators intend for the stewards to have discretion in these calls involving entry mates, the rules need to be rewritten to clearly note that this discretion exists. Currently the rules do not clearly grant that discretion.

If Kentucky regulators should decide to rewrite the rules to specifically give stewards this discretion in interference calls involving entry mates, the standard should be if the stewards determine the entry mate benefitted from the foul as opposed to intent of the rider that committed the foul, when determining if the fouled horse should go ahead of both/all entry mates.

Mind reading should not be part of a steward's job—determining the intention of one rider to help an entry mate.

This Year’s Derby Horses Bring Added Experience

2020-09-04T13:53:00Z

Looking at the number of starts in the past performances for horses entered in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1), one half expects to see Real Quiet or Thunder Gulch listed among the runners.

In terms of starts ahead of the Derby for this year's 3-year-olds, pushing the race back four months seemingly has pushed the classic back a few decades. With those added months to get some races under their belts, the average number of races for the 18 horses entered is 7.4.

In 2019, when the Derby was conducted in its usual first Saturday in May slot, the 19 horses who started the race had made just 5.6 starts--nearly two starts fewer than the average for this year's field. Only three horses in the 2019 field had more than seven starts going into the Derby: War of Will, Long Range Toddy, and Gray Magician.

Of course, the increased average this year is attributable to the race date being pushed to September. As 2-year-olds have not been making their debuts until later in the calendar year--if racing at all as juveniles--and horses are having their starts more spaced out, Derby runners are entering the 1 1/4-mile test with fewer starts under their belt.

From 2000-19, the Derby winners averaged six pre-race starts, and only two of those winners, California Chrome with 10 races ahead of his 2014 win and Mine That Bird with eight races before his 2009 upset, had raced more than seven times.

The added experience of this year's field reminds us that it wasn't that long ago when horses had more races under their belts when they lined up at Churchill Downs. If you go back just one more decade from the 20 years examined above to 1990-99, four of the Derby winners started 10 or more times, and the average winner had nine previous starts. Leading the way was Charismatic, who started 14 times before closing the decade with an upset Derby win.

Leading the way in starts in this year's field is South Bend, who has made a dozen, including 10 stakes and five starts on turf. He exits a fourth-place finish to winner Tiz the Law in the Runhappy Travers Stakes (G1), which marked his first start for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott. Before that effort, he was trained by Stanley Hough and raced for different owners.

Other horses in this year's Derby with more than seven starts are grade 1-placed Finnick the Fierce, grade 3 winner Enforceable (10 starts), champion 2-year-old male Storm the Court (nine), grade 3-placed Necker Island (10), grade 3-placed Attachment Rate (eight), longshot Winning Impression (nine), and grade 1-placed Ny Traffic (nine).

Morning-line favorite Tiz the Law, the winner of the Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets (G1) and three other grade 1s, has raced seven times.

(This blog originally ran in BloodHorse Daily.)

Equine Safety Lessons Should be Learned the First Time

2020-03-12T15:57:00Z

This is my Frankly Speaking column from today's (March 12) issue of BloodHorse Daily. If you haven't already downloaded the app or subscribed to the free BloodHorse Daily, you should.

I didn't get far into the California Horse Racing Board's assessment of the spike in Thoroughbred fatalities last year at Santa Anita Park before I came across a recommendation that I most assuredly agreed with. It also pained me.

"Track veterinarians and examining veterinarians should be under the direct supervision of the official veterinarian or equine medical director (EMD)," read the CHRB report, which put forward ideas to protect horses going forward based on its findings.

That recommendation followed the CHRB report assessment that, previously, this was not occurring. It noted, "Organizationally the track veterinarian and examining veterinarians being supervised by the racing association's racing office poses an inherent conflict."

The recommendation makes perfect sense. While racing offices are concerned about horse safety, they're also concerned about maintaining field sizes--larger fields draw more handle. The recommended change would eliminate any conflict of interest.

So why did my head hurt after reading this? It's because I also thought this was a good recommendation the first time I read it--nearly eight years ago.

After a rash of breakdowns at Aqueduct Racetrack in the winter of 2011-12, the New York State Racing and Wagering Board, upon a recommendation by the New York Racing Association, appointed a team of industry experts to conduct an investigation. The 209-page report that followed in September 2012 from the New York Task Force on Racehorse Health and Safety served up this recommendation: "The NYRA organizational structure, which has the veterinary department reporting and accountable to the racing office, is a critical conflict-of-interest."

That recommendation followed a detailed assessment of the problem, including: "The accountability of the veterinary department to the racing office creates a critical conflict-of-interest that can impact the veterinarians' decisions. In other racing jurisdictions, this conflict is avoided by having all regulatory veterinarians employed by the racing commission or the state regulatory body. "The execution of scratches by racing office personnel, rather than the stewards, establishes an untenable and inappropriate dynamic in which laypersons resist or overtly challenge the recommendations of regulatory veterinarians. Field size, or the economic impact of a scratch, must never be a consideration when an examining veterinarian assesses a horse's suitability to race."

The recommendation followed findings that "the Task Force learned of a trainer who, dissatisfied with a NYRA veterinarian's assessment of his horse, arranged through the racing office for the veterinarian in question to no longer perform pre-race exams on his horses. The Task Force was made aware of other instances in which NYRA veterinarians were instructed to re-evaluate horses having been recommended for a scratch. There were also reports of scratch recommendations being refused or overturned by the racing office."

But in racing, it seems, it's never "problem identified, problem solved, next problem." Instead, it's too often "problem identified, problem solved in one state, problem still a problem in another state." A lesson learned in New York may not carry over to California, or vice versa.

Seeing how he is specifically named in the New York task force report raising concern about this issue, it would seem that P.J. Campo, who served as vice president of racing for Santa Anita's owner, The Stronach Group, during last year's problematic winter/spring meet, would have been familiar with the issue of concern. Campo, who was out of his TSG position before the end of the year, worked in the NYRA racing office at the time Aqueduct had its rash of breakdowns.

The New York task force report noted, "The veterinary department functions under the oversight of, and is accountable, to the NYRA vice president and director of racing P.J. Campo, who also serves as the racing secretary. The organizational structure with the veterinary department accountable to the racing department establishes a potentially critical conflict of interest. "The racing office attempts to generate full fields, as wagering handle is directly linked to field size. Racetrack management has a vested interest in maximizing field size. Conversely, field size, or the economic impact of a scratch, must never be a consideration when an examining veterinarian assesses a horse's suitability to race."

Lessons in New York that followed the deaths of horses were not followed in California. Now racing has another report and another recommendation. The sport can't afford to keep relearning lessons.

California Equine Fatalities Down Since Reforms

2019-12-17T15:57:00Z

The initial equine fatality numbers for Southern California since March 29, when the tracks and racing regulator put sweeping reforms in place, are encouraging.

While more numbers are needed before declaring any statistical significance, to date the rate of catastrophic injury during racing at Del Mar, Los Alamitos Race Course, and Santa Anita Park is below the national average of 2018 (the most recent full season available).

Those trends certainly are notable as Santa Anita Park prepares to launch its winter-spring meeting Dec. 26. That same meet in 2018-19 suffered from a rash of breakdowns that saw Santa Anita close after March 3 to investigate possible causes and determine solutions. Track owner The Stronach Group and the California Horse Racing Board put a long list of new house rules and regulations in place in the areas of medication, shockwave therapy, claiming rules, workout rules, and veterinary scrutiny.

At the time Santa Anita halted its meeting in early March, the rate of catastrophic breakdowns in racing at the track was 4.4 per 1,000 starts (Dec. 26-March 3). That rate was cut in half (2.16 per 1,000 starts) when the track returned to racing March 29 through its fall meet that concluded Nov. 3.

When racing at Del Mar and Los Alamitos is considered, the Southern California equine safety record under the reforms is even more impressive. Since March 29 through Dec. 8, using available public records and applying the standards of The Jockey Club Equine Injury Database, the breakdown rate at the three Southern California tracks is 1.48 per 1,000 starts. That rate is 12% lower than the overall rate of 1.68 per 1,000 starts for U.S. racing in 2018 and 66% lower than the rate at Santa Anita from Jan. 1-March 3, 2019.

Another way of presenting those numbers: Since racing returned March 29 at Santa Anita, such incidents have not occurred in 99.85% of starts.

The Equine Injury Database focuses on equine fatalities during racing starts to allow for comparison from track to track and from year to year throughout North America. The California Horse Racing Board tracks such incidents in racing and training within the state.

After the unfortunate start to the year at Santa Anita, the reduced rate of catastrophic injuries since March 29 contributed to the state having its second-safest fiscal year on record, in terms of total equine fatalities for all racehorses (all breeds), according to CHRB equine medical director Dr. Rick Arthur. The record low came in 2017-18, and the 2018-19 fiscal year ending June 30 was second-lowest, up just 4.3%.

Arthur said fiscal year 2019-20 is off to a good start. According to CHRB numbers looking at when the fiscal year began July 1 through Dec. 11, fatalities are down 13.4% for all racehorses--Thoroughbreds, Standardbreds, Quarter Horses, and other breeds that race and train on California tracks. Those horses are racing and training under the new CHRB standards.

At the Dec. 12 CHRB meeting, Arthur noted the state has seen a 50% reduction in fatalities in the past 10 years. While the reduction in racing for all breeds in the state during that time accounts for some of that reduction, Arthur believes a pro-active regulator also has made a difference.

"Any review of the CHRB's agendas, transcripts, and actions the past 13 years will show horse safety and welfare has been a major focus of the board and certainly of mine," Arthur said. "We did not wait for the investigation to be completed to start taking action. The medication restrictions, we all know about. We've increased staffing, especially more veterinary assignments. We've increased out-of-competition testing. We're monitoring training. We have diagnostic imaging, which when you see the report I think you'll see why it's so important. We do more pre-race examinations and have improved record-keeping."

The first year the CHRB media guide makes starts for all breeds readily available is FY2010. From FY2010 to FY2018 (FY2019 is not yet available), equine fatalities were down 52%. That reduction out-paced the 33% reduction in starts. And, it should be noted, that in FY2010 34% of starts were made on synthetic surfaces, compared with 17% in FY2018.

Belmont Pick: Tacitus Provides Plenty to Like

2019-06-07T15:32:00Z

All eyes figure to be on the outside posts when the gates open for the $1.5 million Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets (G1) June 8 at Belmont Park as they briefly will house Preakness Stakes (G1) winner War of Will in post 9 and morning-line favorite Tacitus in post 10.

I'm in agreement with the morning line as this year's Belmont has some separation between the top two choices, War of Will at 2-1 and Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets (G2) winner Tacitus at 9-5. Trying to pick between those two is difficult, and in terms of wagers like the Pick 4, I suspect they'll be the only horses I play.

But in terms of picking the winner of this race, I'll give Tacitus the edge as he tries to become the fifth horse since 2012 to finish off the board in the Kentucky Derby, skip the Preakness, and then win the Belmont. In using this approach, Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott has provided Tacitus an opportunity to skip some racing and travel while settling into a routine at his Belmont barn.

The third-place Derby finisher has worked three times on the Belmont main track, completing a bullet five furlongs in 1:00 2/5 June 2 to signal his readiness.

Beyond that, Tacitus is the rare horse that suggests the 1 1/2-mile Belmont should be to his liking. He's a son of Tapit, who since 2014 has had three Belmont winners: Tonalist (2014), Creator (2016), and Tapwrit (2017). With a fourth Belmont win, Tapit--who also will be represented by Bourbon War and Intrepid Heart Saturday--will tie Lexington for the most by a sire.

As if that wasn't enough of a breeding angle, Close Hatches--dam of Juddmonte Farms homebred Tacitus--earned two of her five grade 1 wins on the Belmont main track, the 2014 Ogden Phipps and 2013 Mother Goose stakes.

Tacitus put together a three-race win streak going into the Derby, starting with the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby (G2). Despite a rough trip early, Tacitus was fourth under the wire at Churchill Downs and picked up a classic placing when he was moved up to third after the disqualification of Maximum Security.

War of Will also had a troubled trip in the Derby, where Maximum Security interfered with him in the far turn. He came back two weeks later to win the Preakness.

This week trainer Mark Casse summed up my feelings on War of Will when he noted the colt could move to another level with a victory Saturday--an outcome that would not surprise me after I picked War of Will to win the Preakness. Casse acknowledged three races in five weeks is difficult but noted that great horses find a way. He wasn't ready to say his horse is at that level, but he certainly believes War of Will deserves a chance to show his ability.

It'll be fun to see.

Underneath those two, I like Sir Winston, who likes the Belmont main track. Besides his runner-up finish in the Peter Pan Stakes (G3) where he made up nearly nine lengths in the final three-eighths of a mile, the son of Awesome Again is thriving on the surface in the mornings.

Looking at the Varied Paths to the Belmont

2019-06-03T01:11:00Z

Just breaking from the gate as planned in the June 8 Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets (G1) at Belmont Park will separate War of Will from this year's other 3-year-olds as the Preakness Stakes (G1) winner is expected to be the lone horse to start in all three legs of this year's Triple Crown.

Starting in the first two classics has proven a successful route in recent years, thanks to Triple Crown winners Justify last year and American Pharoah in 2015.

A look at this year's Belmont hopefuls shows the most popular route to the season's final classic is to start in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1), skip the Preakness, then race in the 1 1/2-mile classic. That's the path of Tacitus, third in the Derby; Master Fencer (JPN), sixth in the Derby; Tax, 14th in the Derby; and Spinoff, 18th in the Derby.

Of the past 10 Belmont winners, five raced in the Derby and then skipped the Preakness, a route most recently successfully completed by Tapwrit in 2017. Tapwrit finished sixth in the Derby before posting a two-length Belmont score.

Everfast and Bourbon War have started in one classic this year, but their Triple Crown debuts came in the Preakness, where Everfast rallied from 11th to finish second but Bourbon War finished eighth. In the past 10 years, no horse has skipped the Derby, started in the Preakness, and won the Belmont. The last horse to do that was Touch Gold in 1997. Touch Gold finished fourth in the Preakness--just 1 1/2 lengths back--before winning the Belmont by three-quarters of a length, spoiling Silver Charm's Triple Crown bid.

A look at the list of Belmont probables (as of June 2) also includes a pair of new Triple Crown shooters in Sir Winston and Intrepid Heart, the respective second- and third-place finishers in the May 11 Peter Pan Stakes (G3) at Belmont. Three of the past 10 Belmont winners have taken this route, most recently Tonalist, who prepped with a four-length score in the Peter Pan ahead of his narrow victory in the Belmont.

Race Before Belmont Stakes for Past 10 Belmont Stakes Winners
Year    Horse                       Race                      Finish
2018    Justify                       Preakness             Won
2017    Tapwrit                      Kentucky Derby    6th
2016    Creator                     Kentucky Derby     13th
2015    American Pharoah   Preakness              Won
2014    Tonalist                    Peter Pan               Won
2013    Palace Malice          Kentucky Derby     12th
2012    Union Rags              Kentucky Derby     7th
2011    Ruler On Ice            Federico Tesio       2nd
2010    Drosselmeyer          Dwyer                     2nd
2009    Summer Bird           Kentucky Derby      6th

War of Will Takes Aim at Elusive Preakness-Belmont Double

2019-05-24T13:24:00Z

In just over two weeks, War of Will will try to join racing's most exclusive club: horses to start but fall short in the Kentucky Derby (G1) only to bounce back and win the final two classics.

OK, there's much more interest and prestige in sweeping all three classics, but a whopping 13 horses have done that. Only 11 horses have lost the Derby, then won the other two Triple Crown races. Statistical kidding aside, it's a rare horse who can win two classic races.

War of Will will attempt to become just the 12th horse to fall short in the Derby and win the Preakness (G1) and Belmont (G1) stakes. He would end a 14-year drought in this category going back to Afleet Alex. And the number of horses to finish off the board in the Derby--War of Will placed seventh in Louisville--to then come back and win the Preakness and Belmont numbers only four.

Granted, the club expands by seven if you count horses who didn't race in the Derby but won the Preakness and Belmont--that group includes Man o' War.

The list of horses to lose the Derby and win the other two legs of the Triple Crown is an impressive one. All but Tabasco Cat earned champion 3-year-old male honors. Tabasco Cat lost out to Holy Bull--who won five grade 1 races that year, two of those top-level wins coming against older horses--to take divisional honors as well as Horse of the Year.

Of the 11, four earned Horse of the Year honors in their 3-year-old seasons: Capot, Nashua, Damascus, and Point Given. (Native Dancer was Horse of the Year at 2 and 4 but lost to Tom Fool at 3.)

And of that group of 11, five are in the Hall of Fame: Bimelech, Native Dancer, Nashua, Damascus, and Point Given.

While there certainly are more "What if?" racing stories involving the horses to win the Derby and Preakness only to come up short in the Belmont, the Preakness-Belmont horses certainly generate their share as well. What if Point Given had been rated off the pace more at Churchill Downs? What if Money Broker hadn't swerved into Native Dancer in the first turn of the Derby?

Considering Maximum Security was disqualified from victory in the Kentucky Derby for interfering with War of Will, should the son of War Front secure a Belmont victory, his "What if?" story would certainly add an especially interesting chapter.

Preakness-Belmont Winners to Start In, But Not Win Derby

Year Horse Derby Finish

1940 Bimelech 2nd

1949 Capot 2nd

1953 Native Dancer 2nd

1955 Nashua 2nd

1967 Damascus 3rd

1974 Little Current 5th

1988 Risen Star 3rd

1991 Hansel 10th

1994 Tabasco Cat 6th

2001 Point Given 5th

2005 Afleet Alex 3rd

Preakness Pick: War of Will Gets Another Chance

2019-05-17T14:04:00Z

In some ways, the debate over the Kentucky stewards' decision to disqualify Maximum Security from victory in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) now falls into the laps of horseplayers across the country.

That's because a key question in handicapping the Preakness Stakes (G1) is: "How much was War of Will, and possibly other horses, bothered by Maximum Security coming out several lanes near the 5/16 pole in the Derby?" I believe War of Will was bothered quite a bit. He'd already started his big run to the finish when jockey Tyler Gaffalione had to take up to avert disaster, and the horse lost momentum as he was forced outside.

In terms of handicapping horses who have a troubled trip in a race, I still watch to see how the horse responds after the problems. I give Gary Barber's 3-year-old high marks. After having to halt his initial rally, War of Will regrouped and was within a half-length of the lead in the stretch before fading to eighth under the wire (placed seventh after the disqualification).

Beyond the Derby trip, keep in mind that War of Will was progressing nicely toward the Louisville classic until an off-the-board finish in the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby (G2) where he appeared to lose his action early. The fine run in the Kentucky Derby should alleviate any concerns about that Louisiana Derby effort; the son of War Front appears to be back on schedule.

Oddly enough, War of Will is slated to start from the inside for a second consecutive classic. He and Gaffalione handled the inside post of the Derby well--it wasn't quite as bad as most years as the first post was left open with War of Will starting from what normally would be post 2, with the post to his inside left empty. Racing inside didn't seem to bother War of Will last time, and he figures to get a similar trip here--without the usual Derby concerns where inside horses can get crowded out of position early.

There's speed in the race, but it appears to be that disciplined, two-turn type of speed, which War of Will should be able to rate just behind. Should that pace go a few clicks faster than what I'm anticipating, Owendale most assuredly could pick up the pieces. The son of Into Mischief put together a powerful late move to score a clear victory in the April 13 Stonestreet Lexington Stakes (G3) at Keeneland--an effort that suggests his form is closer to the allowance win he had at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots in January than his off-the-board finish in the Risen Star Stakes Presented by Lamarque Ford (G2) there in February.

One reason Owendale is not my top choice is that he'll pick up eight pounds off that Lexington effort--quite a bit of weight for a horse also being asked to stretch out another furlong off his Keeneland score.

Morning-line favorite Improbable certainly could deliver after a solid Derby effort (ultimately fourth) that followed a pair of runner-up graded stakes finishes for the son of City Zip. Trainer Bob Baffert is going for his eighth Preakness score, and he's twice won the classic with horses who finished off the board in the Derby: Lookin At Lucky (2010) and Point Given (2001).

Preakness picks: 1. War of Will, 2. Owendale, 3. Improbable

Potential to Improve Makes Vekoma Intriguing Derby Pick

2019-05-03T16:43:00Z

After documenting the twists and turns of this year's Road to the Kentucky Derby, we'll take a break from writing about those events to answer the question on everyone's mind: Who do you like Saturday?

The Derby of recent years reminds me more of the initial editions of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), where top horses with a few starts in different regions of the country--with few previous matchups against horses in the field--come together to race. With that being the case, horses most assuredly are still improving, and along those lines Vekoma stands out as a horse who could move forward Saturday in a group that on paper is difficult to separate.

R.A. Hill Stable and Gatsas Stables' Vekoma, trained by George Weaver, showed plenty of talent last year, putting together a pair of wins and closing the year with a clear victory in the Nashua Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct Racetrack. Off a nearly five-month layoff, Vekoma then returned with a third-place finish in the Xpressbet Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park--his first try at two turns.

He likely needed that start and followed with a dominating score in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G2) at Keeneland. It's a four-race campaign where Vekoma has done nothing wrong--I'm forgiving the third off the long layoff. He has the potential to take a big step forward.

Also, based on Equibase early pace numbers, the early running of Saturday's race figures to be in Vekoma's wheelhouse. Whether multiple Eclipse Award-winning jockey Javier Castellano chooses to be on or near the lead, Vekoma figures to be in his comfort zone. While there are no guarantees in a 20-horse field, his running style and post position give him a good chance to secure a quality position early.

Another four-start horse with room to improve Saturday is Roadster, who edged champion stablemate Game Winner to win the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and earn a Derby spot. Roadster, like all three of Derby maestro Bob Baffert's 2019 runners, appears to be going into the race strong. Even though Improbable and Game Winner didn't win their previous starts, they delivered strong efforts to signal their readiness.

With that in mind, Game Winner is my third pick. Although he has lost his two starts this year, those efforts were still impressive, especially when you consider the first race--a division of the Rebel Stakes (G2)--was Plan B after the San Felipe Stakes (G2) was canceled. Another plus for Game Winner is the strong run he put in on the Churchill Downs surface in winning last year's Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1).

Not to mention, Game Winner figures to be favored in a race the favorite has won six years in a row. I'm guessing that trend ends this year with Vekoma.

Picks
1. Vekoma
2. Roadster
3. Game Winner

Derby Futures Would Make KY Sports Wagering Extra Attractive

2019-04-26T21:10:00Z

One angle I didn't hear discussed when Kentucky lawmakers considered, and ultimately failed to approve, legislation this year that would have allowed sports wagering was the foothold the state could have enjoyed in offering Kentucky Derby future wagers.

While Churchill Downs has done its best to offer future wagers--offering pari-mutuel pools on four Derby future pools, one futures pool on the sire of the Derby winner, and one on the Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1) winner--future wagers work better as a fixed-odds wager commonly offered in futures sports wagering.

As home of the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1)--one of the biggest events in sports wagering--and Churchill Downs Inc., Kentucky should be the center of attention when it comes to fixed-odds future wagers on the Derby. Beyond the revenue it would generate for racing and the state, it would also bring added attention to Kentucky's signature industry.

In its pari-mutuel future pools, Churchill offers 24 betting interests--typically 23 individual horses and one "all others" wager. This format keeps the odds of many of the horses from attaining the higher odds that would typically be available if all 3-year-olds, or nearly all 3-year-olds, were assigned fixed odds as part of a sports wager.

When people think about big sports wagering days, the Super Bowl and Kentucky Derby come to mind. There certainly would be added interest in Kentucky. And with CDI's commitment to bricks-and-mortar as well as online sports wagering through its online BetAmerica platform, it's not hard to envision the day a Derby futures pool ties together all states that allow sports wagering.

For now, Churchill also plans to offer some head-to-head pari-mutuel wagers on this year's Derby card, which could help draw the attention of sports bettors.

Multiple reports covering the sports wagering issue in Kentucky note that next year the issue shouldn't be as steep a climb with Kentucky lawmakers. We'll see.

Until then, let's look at some of the value in this year's pari-mutuel Kentucky Derby Future Pools.

In Pool 1, which concluded wagering Nov. 25, eventual Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner Roadster closed at 32-1. Those odds will be well above his actual odds, which figure to be in the 5-1 to 7-1 range. At the time of the first future wager pool, Roadster, trained by Derby maestro Bob Baffert, had won a six-furlong maiden race and run third in the Del Mar Futurity (G1), losing that race to stablemate Game Winner.

The value of Pool 2 was Tacitus, who closed at 96-1 in wagering that ended Feb. 10. At that point, his backers would have largely been basing their opinion on a maiden win Nov. 10 at Aqueduct Racetrack. About a month after wagering closed, the son of Tapit scored a clear victory in the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby (G2) ahead of his April win in the Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets (G2). Off those two victories, Tacitus figures to be among the favorites (5-1 range) in the Derby.

Highlighting Pool 3, for my money, was Vekoma, who closed at 37-1 March 10. The eventual Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G2) winner had just run third in the March 3 Xpressbet Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park. I don't have a good feel for what his Derby odds will be, but I suspect 37-1 will be about twice his actual odds.

And in the final pool that closed April 7, Omaha Beach provided some value at 10-1. As he figures to be one of the favorites on Derby Day, his backers here may have effectively doubled their odds. A poor run in the following week's Arkansas Derby (G1) was the only risk with this wager, but the colt won the April 13 race.

In the sire pool that closed Nov. 25, which requires bettors to select the sire of the Derby winner, the hands-down value is War Front at 41-1. That wager has his backers live to the possible favorite in Omaha Beach as well as multiple graded stakes winner War of Will.

Also of note in the sire pool: Bettors who liked champion 2-year-old male Game Winner, who was 5-1 in the Derby Future Wager conducted that same weekend, were better off playing his sire, Candy Ride (ARG), as he closed at 7-1. Beyond picking up slightly higher odds by selecting Candy Ride, they'll also be live to Vekoma.

Road to the Kentucky Derby, By the Numbers

2019-04-19T18:30:00Z

When Omaha Beach held off Improbable to win the Arkansas Derby (G1) April 13 at Oaklawn Park, it wrapped up an especially exciting Road to the Kentucky Derby prep season.

Before turning our focus to the actual race, I thought we could take a final look back at this year's prep season in a "by the numbers" format.

150
Points earned by Road to the Kentucky Derby points leader Tacitus.

2
Years in which the points leader has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby: Orb and California Chrome.

3
* Horses ranked in the top 12 who made their initial starts on turf: No. 2 Omaha Beach, No. 4 Plus Que Parfait, and No. 12 War of Will.
* Trainers with multiple horses in this year's top 19 by points: Bob Baffert (No. 5 Roadster, No. 8 Game Winner, and No. 11 Improbable), Bill Mott (Tacitus and No. 17 Country House), and Todd Pletcher (No. 15 Cutting Humor and No. 19 Spinoff).
* Horses who won 100-point races this year who did not earn any other points in the series: Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner Roadster, Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby (G2) winner By My Standards, and Xpressbet Florida Derby (G1) winner Maximum Security.
* Horses with $1 million or more in non-restricted stakes earnings who are ranked in the top 19: Omaha Beach, $1,050,000; Plus Que Parfait, $1,540,400; Game Winner, $1,810,000.

4
Owners with interests in multiple horses among the top 19 points earners: Randy Hill (part owner of both No. 3 Vekoma and No. 14 Tax), Gary and Mary West (No. 7 Maximum Security and Game Winner), Starlight Racing (part owner of Improbable and full owner of Cutting Humor), and Gary Barber (full owner of War of Will and part owner of No. 18 Gray Magician).

5
* Times the points leader has finished with exactly 150 points: Tacitus this year, Magnum Moon last year, Girvin in 2017, California Chrome in 2014, and Orb in 2013.
* Horses among the top nine points earners who are conditioned by Racing Hall of Fame trainers: Tacitus, Bill Mott; Omaha Beach, Richard Mandella; Roadster and Game Winner, Bob Baffert; and No. 9 Code of Honor, Shug McGaughey.

9
Lowest ranking of a horse to win the Derby: Justify last season.

40
Points earned by the current final horse in the field, Spinoff. It would be the highest total ever needed to make the Derby field.

100
The lowest point total accumulated by horses who won the Derby: Justify last year and Always Dreaming in 2017.

An Exciting Conclusion to Derby Points Series

2019-04-12T13:44:00Z

When Churchill Downs changed its qualifying standards for the Kentucky Derby (G1) ahead of the 2013 edition of the race from graded stakes earnings to points earned in its designated Road to the Kentucky Derby series races, this is the type of season those racing executives surely imagined.

While before the points system there were years where good horses would just get into the field or just get squeezed out, the points series is easier to follow. (Adding 20+20 is a lot easier than trying to remember to carry the '1' when you're adding $27,000 to $24,000 in graded stakes earnings.)

The points race relative to who gets in, who is left out, and the strategy employed by connections in trying to crack the field is especially interesting this year. With television coverage of the final two races April 13, the Stonestreet Lexington Stakes (G3) on TVG and the Arkansas Derby (G1) on NBC Sports Network, the culmination should make for compelling storylines.

Consider some of the oddities in this year's points race:

• Arkansas Derby morning-line favorite Improbable, who is ranked fifth in the most recent NTRA Top 3-Year-Old Poll, needs at least a third-place finish--possibly a finish in the top two--to ensure a Kentucky Derby spot.
• Second choice in the Arkansas Derby and fourth in the NTRA poll, Omaha Beach needs at least a top-four finish Saturday to secure a Derby slot.
•While horses like Improbable and Country House will look to land a Derby spot through the 100-40-20-10 points offered to the top four finishers of the Arkansas Derby, multiple graded stakes-placed Sueno and Sunland Park Derby (G3) runner-up Anothertwistafate will take more of an all-or-nothing approach as they'll need a win in the Lexington (20-8-4-2) to ensure a place in the Churchill gate.
• A top-two Arkansas Derby finish by horses out of the top 20--or even horses without any points in the series--could put other 3-year-olds on the outside looking in for the Derby, or force connections to decide whether they want to prepare for the Derby and see if any defections open a spot.

Barring defections, a new standard in terms of points required to qualify for one of the 20 starting spots in the Kentucky Derby will be established. Currently, the final spot is held by Omaha Beach at 37.5 points, which is already ahead of the previous standard for the final spot set in 2016 with the 32 points earned by Mo Tom, who finished eighth in the Louisville classic.

One reason the points standard has increased is because a dozen horses have won races that awarded 37.5 points or more to the winner (the 37.5 points went to the winners of the split grade 2 Rebel Stakes). Only Tacitus has won two of these races, picking up 50 for his victory in the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby (G2) and 100 for his score in the Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets (G2).

Another reason for the increased standard is this year's North American points race will award, at most, 19 spots instead of 20. This is because one spot is already reserved for Master Fencer (JPN) through the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby.

Some good news for Derby bubble horses? After the April 11 Woodford Reserve Cardinal conditions stakes result, it appears unlikely a horse will take advantage of a spot earned through the European Road to the Derby--although that's still a possibility.

Maybe it's not quite the excitement of a college basketball bubble team hearing its name announced for an NCAA Tournament bid, but this year's points race is pretty compelling.

International Horses With Derby Aspirations Meet at Meydan

2019-03-29T12:32:00Z

Some of the top international runners under consideration for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) should sort themselves out March 30 in the UAE Derby Sponsored by Saeed & Mohammed Al Naboodah Group (G2) at Meydan.

Three runners of interest are based in Dubai with trainer Ahmed bin Harmash for owner Phoenix Ladies Syndicate. The connections said March 27 that should Walking Thunder win or run well, he'll go on to compete in the Kentucky Derby. A Florida-bred son of Violence, Walking Thunder won his first three starts before finishing second to Godolphin's Estihdaaf in the UAE Two Thousand Guineas Sponsored by Al Naboodah Ashok Leyland Partnership (G3).

Phoenix Ladies Syndicate's Golden Jaguar will not go on to Kentucky regardless of the outcome, and the connections will make a decision after the race should Al Bastakiya Sponsored by Emirates.com runner-up Superior earn a Kentucky Derby spot.

The field also features 3-year-olds who have already earned points in either the European or Japanese Road to the Kentucky Derby points races. Derma Louvre (JPN), a Pyro colt, has connections interested in going to Louisville for the first Saturday in May, and he currently leads the Japanese points race. The UAE Derby should give them a feel as to where they stand.

Sheikh Hamdan bin Rashid Al Maktoum's Jahbath (GB), who is not nominated to the Triple Crown, picked up 20 Derby qualifying points with his March 6 victory in the Road To The Kentucky Derby conditions stakes at Kempton. Van Beethoven, a Triple Crown nominee for his Coolmore-affiliated owners, finished fourth in the March 6 BetVictor Patton Stakes at Dundalk, earning two points.

Not Improvising in New Orleans

2019-03-22T13:35:00Z

Between the Mississippi River and the Gulf of Mexico, plenty of visitors have wandered into New Orleans throughout its long history, but make no mistake, the equine star to date of the current Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots meet is in the Crescent City by plan.

Last year trainer Mark Casse liked how the track with the long stretch, forgiving surface, and logical prep race series for 3-year-olds paved the way for his outstanding filly Wonder Gadot, who placed in three stakes at Fair Grounds before later running second in the Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1) and then defeating males in the first two legs of the Canadian Triple Crown.

With that good experience fresh in his mind, Fair Grounds made sense for Casse's promising colt for the 2019 classics: War of Will, a son of War Front who last year earned a grade 1 placing on turf before closing out his juvenile season with a five-length romp in a maiden race at Churchill Downs--his first career try on dirt. Both Wonder Gadot and War of Will are owned by Gary Barber.

While Wonder Gadot's biggest successes would follow her time at Fair Grounds, War of Will has thrived in New Orleans, winning the Jan. 19 Lecomte Stakes (G3) by four lengths before taking the Feb. 16 Risen Star Stakes presented by Lamarque Ford (G2) by 2 1/4 lengths--overcoming a start from post 13. The success has moved him to the top of the Road to the Kentucky Derby points list.

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points Leaders

On March 23, War of Will is the 6-5 morning-line favorite in the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby (G2), the first Road to the Kentucky Derby series race this season to offer 100 points to the winner.

"Gary Barber and I had this conversation after War of Will won at Churchill. He actually came to our training center in Ocala and we talked about which direction we wanted to go," Casse said. "We came really close last year to winning the Kentucky Oaks with Wonder Gadot, and she had all her prepping in New Orleans, and we just think it's a good place. I've got (assistant) David Carroll there, who I have just the utmost respect for. He leads our charges down there and he's got a lot of experience--he's got a lot of Triple Crown experience just himself.

"What you want to do during the wintertime with these Derby horses, you want to get enough racing in them, but you also want to keep them happy and healthy. And in my opinion, New Orleans is the best place to do that."

Road to the Kentucky Derby Points Races

In terms of recent history, Fair Grounds has seen this odd trend where its 3-year-olds fillies have enjoyed success in the Kentucky Oaks while the males have come up just short in the Kentucky Derby.

Last year Monomoy Girl, who won Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G2) at Fair Grounds, became the sixth Kentucky Oaks winner since 2005 to win at least one stakes race at Fair Grounds before their star turn under the Twin Spires. Those winners include Untapable, Summerly, Believe You Can, Proud Spell, and Rachel Alexandra. And that's not counting 2015 Kentucky Oaks winner Lovely Maria, who won an allowance-optional claiming race at Fair Grounds and ran second in the Rachel Alexandra.

Recent top Kentucky Derby finishes off Fair Grounds prep races include Louisiana Derby winner Gun Runner finishing third in 2016. Longshots Commanding Curve in 2014 and Golden Soul in 2013, both finished second in the Louisville classic after finishing third and fourth, respectfully, in the Louisiana Derby. Also in 2013, Louisiana Derby winner Revolutionary finished third in the Louisville classic. Nehro finished second in both the Louisiana Derby and Kentucky Derby in 2011 and Mucho Macho Man placed third in both races that same year. Hard Spun, winner of the 2007 Lecomte, went on to place second in the Derby.

The most recent Louisiana Derby runner to win the Kentucky Derby was Funny Cide in 2003--he finished second in Fair Grounds' biggest Derby prep. The most recent Louisiana Derby winner to win the Louisville classic is Grindstone in 1996. War Emblem, who finished off the board in the 2002 Lecomte and Risen Star, pulled the Kentucky Derby upset.

Should War of Will run well again Saturday, it will be six weeks of preparation for the Kentucky Derby. Casse thinks that times up well for a horse who will have three starts under his belt this season and eight overall.

"The six weeks is not going to be a problem," Casse said. "A big effort hopefully on Saturday and then we get ready for the biggest--we need the biggest effort of his career. But I feel confident in that he'll be ready for it."

This is a column that runs as "The Road" and first appears in BloodHorse Daily.

Thayer: Tax Law Fix on Gambling Winnings a "Heavy Lift"

2019-03-18T21:17:00Z

In a change that never should have occurred in the first place, Kentucky lawmakers eliminated the ability of gamblers to claim losses up to the amount of their winnings for tax year 2018 as part of a major tax reform that aimed to simplify the code by eliminating many deductions.

While one certainly can question why Kentucky lawmakers would have stopped allowing gambling losses to be claimed against winnings--a bettor who wins $100 on one race but loses $200 on the day at Keeneland or Churchill Downs certainly didn't win--there's no question that Sen. Damon Thayer (Republican, Georgetown) immediately understood the problem and quickly took action to change the rule going forward.

Thayer recently provided a behind-the-scenes replay of efforts to return the ability of Kentucky bettors to claim their losses against any gambling winnings. Thayer saw an opportunity to add wording to a Senate bill that aimed to clean up unintended consequences of the tax reform bill passed in 2018.

The House bill addressing such unintended consequences had already been approved and the Senate bill already was before the Senate Appropriations and Revenue Committee, chaired by Christian McDaniel. Thayer said most of the issues that had been addressed in each version of the bill had already been discussed for months whereas there had been no discussion of the problematic change ending the ability to claim gambling losses against winnings.

Kentucky Horseplayers Concerned About Tax Change

"Most of the issues that are addressed in there we knew about for a long time but until your article, no one knew about or had discussed this issue," Thayer said. "So on these other issues, you had a year's worth of public comment, social media postings, and lobbying behind putting these issues in the bill.

"But for this issue, we only had a few weeks to explain the issue and convince lawmakers that this was an unintended consequence."

While efforts led by the NTRA at the federal level have greatly reduced the number reported winnings, they do still occur and previously players could keep track of their losses to claim against these big wins. Also, regular players in Kentucky have made a habit of filing reports on their winnings and losses to determine if they finished up for the year, which until tax year 2018 would be the amount they traditionally would have paid taxes on. The new rule put in place for 2018 would only view the winnings side of that ledger for such Kentucky players. Thayer said the impact had not fully been considered by lawmakers last year.

"Whenever you do comprehensive tax reform, there are going to be some mistakes and oversights," Thayer said, noting that lawmakers had not considered the impact on the horse industry and horseplayers.

Thayer said he thought the addition to the unintended consequences tax reform bill was a good fit because he believes lawmakers never intended for this to be the standard. But with that standard in place, Thayer not only faced the challenge of educating lawmakers on the importance of pari-mutuel wagering for the horse industry but also saw some opposition from anti-gambling lawmakers. The ending of the ability to claim losses against winnings put Kentucky at a disadvantage with other states, and it risked losing big bettors, a trend that would negatively impact pari-mutuel handle and, in turn, purses. But explaining this to other lawmakers, already well into the current session, would prove a challenge.

"There is still some strong anti-gambling sentiment, especially in Kentucky's rural areas so we ran into some of that," Thayer said. "We had to explain to lawmakers that pari-mutuel wagering and these bettors are the financial model that racing is based on.

"It was a heavy lift in a short period of time," Thayer said. "It is a major victory. It would have put Kentucky in an uncompetitive position."

Thayer said the legislation applies to tax year 2019 going forward. Efforts to make it retroactive to the 2018 tax year came up short. He noted that it's a very high bar to clear when it comes to changing tax laws currently in place.

Thayer thanked McDaniel, a Senator from Northern Kentucky near Turfway Park who had some understanding of the issue and quickly supported it--adding the change at the committee level. It would be debated again after advancing from the committee.

"He helped me explain it to others, I'm eternally grateful to Sen. McDaniel," Thayer said. Thayer also recognized Rep. David Osborne, an Oldham County-based Thoroughbred owner and Speaker of the House; and Rep. Adam Koenig, who introduced sports wagering legislation currently under consideration and also is from Northern Kentucky, for helping pass the legislation through the House.

On March 13, a free conference committee working on versions of the clean-up bill approved by the Kentucky House and Senate was approved, with the gambling losses deduction included, by an 87-8 vote. The bill will go to Gov. Matt Bevin for his signature.

As for this year, the problematic law is in place. As one Kentucky bettor previously told BloodHorse, he was surprised that there wasn't more awareness of why gambling losses need to be tied to winnings, in a state where horse racing is so vital.

"I don't want to bet right now," the player said. "If this had happened in Montana or somewhere that betting the races isn't as big, I could have seen that. But I can't believe this happened in Kentucky."

Oaklawn Park Steps Up to Fill a Need

2019-03-15T22:32:00Z

At this week's National Horsemen's Benevolent and Protective Association convention in Clearwater Beach, Fla., Arkansas HBPA president Bill Walmsley explained his thought process when Oaklawn Park management outlined a possible plan this month to split the $1 million Rebel Stakes (G2) into two divisions.

The track's plan was to offer a pair of $750,000 divisions of the Rebel. It required an additional $500,000 commitment in purses, and the track needed the horsemen's approval to move forward.

The plan aimed to address horses thrown off schedule by the closure of Santa Anita Park to address equine safety issues. The March 9 San Felipe Stakes (G2)--which was supposed to be the season's first start for champion Game Winner and grade 1 winner Improbable, both from the barn of Bob Baffert--was canceled.

Walmsley said the horsemen agreed to the split and increased purse, a decision they thought would benefit the horse racing industry overall. He said horsemen thought of a hypothetical 80-year-old owner or trainer who has a once-in-a-lifetime horse in Southern California, and suddenly plans have been thrown into disarray. They considered being in the shoes of that horseman--and how much he'd appreciate race options to stay on schedule--and approved the plan.

Oaklawn initially said the Rebel would only be split if 20 horses were entered, but when 19 entered, the track decided that number met the spirit of the plan they had envisioned. Two divisions of the 1 1/16-mile Rebel will be offered Saturday--going off as races 8 and 10 on the card (5:57 and 7:06 p.m. ET).

Each race will offer a revised schedule of Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifying points of 37.5-15-7.5-3.75 to the top four finishers. The Rebel initially had offered 50-20-10-5.

Churchill Downs had rules in place on how points would be awarded should a Road to the Derby race be split, and the Oaklawn purse increase allowed the two divisions to offer a solid points incentive. The scale should largely ensure winners of each division a spot in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1). Horses who already have earned points could be well-positioned with a placing.

Jimmy Barnes, assistant to Baffert, appreciated Oaklawn's efforts.

"It's tough in California right now," Barnes said. "Hopefully, they'll get things worked out. This time it ended up working better for us because we were going to run both in the San Felipe, so this way they run apart. Thank God for Oaklawn. They had enough horses and enough money to split the race. They came through for us. That was awesome."

Baffert has won the Rebel a record six times--in 2010 (Lookin At Lucky), 2011 (The Factor), 2012 (Secret Circle), 2014 (Hoppertunity), 2015 (American Pharoah), and 2016 (Cupid). Lookin At Lucky and American Pharoah were Eclipse Award winners at 2 and 3. American Pharoah won the Rebel and Arkansas Derby (G1) before sweeping the Triple Crown en route to Horse of the Year honors.

Beyond Baffert's two starters, the other California-based horses entered in the Rebel are Extra Hope and Omaha Beach for trainer Richard Mandella, Easy Shot for Keith Desormeaux, Galilean and Gunmetal Gray for Jerry Hollendorfer, and Parsimony for Doug O'Neill.

Many of the industry's best moments come when cooperation occurs, and while Santa Anita officials continue to find a way forward, Oaklawn and its horsemen stepped in to facilitate some options.

Gotham, Jeff Ruby Offer Options

2019-03-08T16:22:00Z

So you're an owner with a 3-year-old who isn't quite ready to try two turns in a graded stakes, but you would like to pick up some qualifying points toward the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1)--just in case stretching out to a classic distance could still be in the future.

Or you're a trainer with a sophomore who has shown talent on turf or synthetic surfaces, and you'd like to see how he stacks up against graded stakes competition and pick up some Derby qualifying points--just in case--before throwing in the added challenge of racing on dirt.

Well, this is the Road to the Kentucky Derby weekend for you.

Aqueduct Racetrack will host the $300,000 Gotham Stakes (G3) where eight 3-year-olds are expected to try the one-turn mile that offers qualifying points on a scale of 50-20-10-5 to the top four finishers. Five of the eight runners have yet to try two turns.

At Turfway Park in Northern Kentucky, 11 sophomores are expected to start in the $200,000 Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) at 1 1/8 miles on the synthetic surface. Six of the expected starters have never won on dirt, but that's not an issue in this Derby points race that offers 20-8-4-2 to the top four finishers.

Saturday's Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby (G2) is a more standard points race (50-20-10-5) for this time of year at two turns on the dirt.

As for the Gotham and Jeff Ruby, both races fall on the calendar at a time that allows successful runners from this weekend's races to still try two turns on the dirt before committing to the Kentucky Derby. Based on past Derby points races, the 50 points earned by the Gotham winner will ensure that 3-year-old a spot in the Derby field, but he'll be able to stretch out, whether it be the 1 1/8-mile Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets (G2) at Aqueduct or one of the other big Derby prep races.

In the Gotham, Instagrand, who won last year's six-furlong Best Pal Stakes (G2) at Del Mar, will stretch out to one mile--but stay at one turn--in his 3-year-old debut.

The 20 points earned by the Jeff Ruby winner would put that horse squarely on the Derby bubble, likely making it necessary to pick up some points in one of the final Derby prep races on dirt.

Mark Casse will send out Skywire for his stakes debut in the Jeff Ruby. The son of two-time classic winner Afleet Alex enters off wins on a synthetic track at Woodbine and an off-the-turf race on a sloppy Gulfstream Park surface. Casse noted that trainers often are still figuring out the best spots for their 3-year-olds this time of year.

"We had him in on the grass, and it came off and we said, 'Well, let's give it a shot,' and he ran well. I think the key to all that is--and anyone who tells you differently, that they know, is lying--you've got to give a horse a try (on dirt) because you never know. You just never know. He had trained well on the dirt or we wouldn't have run him on the dirt."

And while the long-range goal for Skywire is the Queen's Plate Stakes at Woodbine, the first leg of the Canadian Triple Crown, Casse's mindset going into the Jeff Ruby is probably similar to a number of trainers.

"If he runs really well Saturday, he could end up in the (grade 2 Toyota) Blue Grass (at Keeneland April 6)," Casse said. "He's 1-for-1 on the dirt, and he's 1-for-1 on the Tapeta."

For many, things could be a bit clearer after these two races Saturday.

Road to the Kentucky Derby points standings

Road to the Kentucky Derby prep race schedule

Gates Beginning to Fill in Road to the Derby

2019-03-04T16:35:00Z

After a bit of a slow start to the Road to the Kentucky Derby in terms of field size, horsemen's interest has been picking up as they try to qualify their 3-year-olds for the season's opening classic.

The past seven races--counting the 11 starters in the March 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park--have featured field sizes larger or as large as last year.

The 11 starters in the Fountain of Youth exceeds last year's nine starters in that race. The Southwest Stakes (G3) was up to 11 from 10, the Risen Star Stakes presented by Lamarque Ford (G2) improved from 9 to 14, and the El Camino Real Derby (11-9), Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) (9-6), and Withers Stakes (G3) (7-5) also saw improvement. The Fasig-Tipton Holy Bull Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream had nine starters in 2019 and 2018.

That improvement in recent weeks has helped the Road to the Kentucky Derby enjoy a 4.7% increase in starters to 201, up from 192 for the same 21 races last year.

That said, the series did get off to a slow start. In the nine races for juveniles in 2018 awarding qualifying points to the 2019 Derby, the number of starters was down slightly to 91, after 95 contested those races in 2017 for the 2018 Derby.

Also, Southern California has struggled throughout the series for the 2019 Derby. Of the four races offered thus far in the series--the American Pharoah Stakes (G1), Los Alamitos CashCall Futurity (G1), Sham Stakes (G3), and Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3)--the number of starters is down from 29 last year to 23 this year, a 21% decline.

While field size has been down in California, the quality is still believed to be there as Southern California-based 3-year-olds are prominent on most Derby watch lists and in future betting odds with horses like champion Game Winner, who won the American Pharoah; Los Alamitos Futurity winner Improbable; and Robert B. Lewis winner Mucho Gusto prominent.

The average field size for the Road to the Kentucky Derby races of 9.6 is 15.7% larger than the average field size of all races in the United States and Canada in 2018, 8.3. Last year, looking at all races in the U.S. and Canada, average field size improved 7.5%, and the average starters per race surpassed 8 for the first time since 2011.

This week: While the lone points race in the Road to the Kentucky Derby will be the Fountain of Youth (Fox Sports 2, around 5:32 p.m. ET) Saturday at Gulfstream, the European Road to the Kentucky Derby will offer points races March 1, the BetVictor Patton Stakes at Dundalk; and March 6, the Road to the Derby Condition Stakes at Kempton Park.

A Look Back Before Derby Prep Season Picks Up Steam

2019-02-22T16:27:00Z

With no points races scheduled this weekend on the Road to the Kentucky Derby series, it is a good time to reflect and scrutinize some of the more impressive victories seen so far.

Beginning March 2, seven straight weekends through April 13 will offer at least one points race as the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) field takes shape.

With that in mind, this year's column launches with thoughts on five of the more impressive winning efforts to date in Derby points races.

Game Winner, Nov. 2 Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), Churchill Downs
Though these races are listed in alphabetical order by horse name, this effort is still the most impressive on the Derby trail. In 1 1/16-mile races at Churchill Downs, winning from an outside post is difficult because the first turn comes up quick. As Game Winner raced wide throughout the early going in the Juvenile, the problems with this post seemed to be playing out. But Game Winner proved up to the challenge, unleashing a long drive to the wire to complete an unbeaten season. The track that day was playing to off-the-pace, outside runners, but there's never a penalty for winning.

Harvey Wallbanger, Feb. 2 Fasig-Tipton Holy Bull Stakes (G2), Gulfstream Park
Give Harvey Wallbanger credit for closing along the rail--not something a lot of horses want to do. And give Brian Hernandez credit for saving ground on a horse capable of this move. Hernandez has long been one of the best to ride inside. On the other hand, Harvey Wallbanger did save a lot of ground, which benefited him late.

Super Steed, Feb. 18 Southwest Stakes (G3), Oaklawn Park
Many in this field certainly had hit a wall in the far turn, but remember that Super Steed was not only rallying from last in the far turn, he was making that rally five wide--so extra credit there. Beyond that, trainer Larry Jones noted Super Steed battled a bit of an illness at year's end. When you look at his Equibase Speed Figures, the son of Super Saver earned a 100 in his second start, then after an 85 and a 90, he registered a 99 in the Southwest--a number that's even better when you factor in the wide move. This suggests Super Steed not only is back on track but could improve.

War of Will, Feb. 16 Risen Star Stakes presented by Lamarque Ford (G2), Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots
The "take-home" from this effort is that War of Will is a horse who can create his own luck--an important skill if you enter a 20-horse field. Faced with an outside post, War of Will quickly moved into position to deliver a winning race.

Well Defined, Feb. 9 Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3), Tampa Bay Downs
I'm giving some extra credit here for leading every step on a day that wasn't kind to frontrunners.