Plenty of Options for Bayern after Haskell Win

re: Plenty of Options for Bayern after Haskell Win

Pedigree Ann — Fri, 01 Aug 2014 16:34:18 GMT

Coldfacts - Ghostzapper was by BC Classic winner Awesome Again (sire of major 10f winners like Game on Dude, Awesome Gem, and Ginger Punch) out of a mare by Relaunch, who placed in G1 races up to 12f (on grass, of course) and sired BC Classic winner Skywalker and Cee's Tizzy, sire of Tiznow not to mention the distance-loving Waquoit and With Anticipation.

Furthermore, 'Zapper had 10f-12f G1-type winners Hawaii and Shannon II on his damline, which just happened to connect with Affirmed's at the fifth dam. So I wouldn't say that Bayern is more likely to stay than Ghostzapper was; there were plenty of staying elements in the ped.

re: Plenty of Options for Bayern after Haskell Win

Bill Rinker — Fri, 01 Aug 2014 02:46:36 GMT

Thanks for a nice column Frank, I too will be looking forward to your future work, looks real good to me. It was Bayern's day to shine in the Haskell and perhaps what impressed me most, was how easily and immediately he appeared to get into the comfort zone. It looked like Martine took a slight hold after entering the first turn, he responded kindly and that was it, smooth sailing while under way to sensible fractions. I'm not sure you would want to fix something that's not broken, in reference to competition playing to your strength seems like the best direction to go in. It will be interesting to see how his future unfolds, over coming unfortunate events in a race is very much a test of not only the immediate situation but also future mental prowess and most importantly confidence. They all seem to respond a little differently to oppositional events and so far he has handled things very well. Let's hope that he can stay healthy and continue to move forward, and I'm sure along the way provide us with plenty of thrilling moments.

re: Plenty of Options for Bayern after Haskell Win

Coldfacts — Thu, 31 Jul 2014 20:29:16 GMT

Rusty Weisner,

Ghostzapper’s first 7 races were restricted to 7F and less. Bayern reminds me a lot of Ghostzapper. Let’s do a comparison of their Belmont 7F race and their next outing over 9F at Monmouth :

Ghoistzapper:

Tom Fool (Belmont); 7F – 1st, 1:20.42

Phillip Iselin (Monmouth); 9F - 1s, 1:47.66

Bayern:

Woody Stephens (Belmont); 7F – 1st, 1:20.75

Haskell (Monmouth); 9F - 1s, 1:47.92

Ghostzapper had no problem carrying his speed to a BCC stakes record. Bayern has more stamina in his pedigree to complement his speed..

re: Plenty of Options for Bayern after Haskell Win

Rachel best 3 yr old filly ever — Thu, 31 Jul 2014 19:07:43 GMT

Cold Facts:

Great points on Bayern with his pedigree, but I haven't seen Bayern rate yet. He has been on the lead in all of his races that he won. In the Preakness he got bumped at the start and was thrown out of his comfortable spot on the lead. This colt reminds me alot of Game On Dude so far in his career. If he is going to win the Travers or BC Classic he must learn to take dirt in his face and rate of the pace. In the Travers he might not have pressure up front (speed duel) and can loaf around the track in a decent pace 23 or 24 1st quarter, 46 half then he can manage his speed going a mile and 1/4. Yet in the BC he will face legimate pace pressure early from Game on Dude, Moreno, Moonshine Mullins and then will have to deal with Stalkers in Palice Malice, Cali Chrome, Shared Belief,Will Take Charge, Departing and then the closer Wicked Strong ( left out others). I don't see him carrying that speed with all kinds of pressure to secure a win going a mile and 1/4 in the Classic. If he does? then he will be a special horse to beat this group of horses this year. We have a nice 3yr old group and nice handicap division going on right now.

re: Plenty of Options for Bayern after Haskell Win

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 31 Jul 2014 16:25:30 GMT

Coldfacts,

I don't think the pedigree here is the main argument against his likelihood of going the distance -- the trainer's own reservations and earlier intentions (King's Bishop) are the better argument.

re: Plenty of Options for Bayern after Haskell Win

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 31 Jul 2014 16:24:03 GMT

Frank Angst,

I'm really pulling for Bayern to run in the Travers because I would like to bet against him in that spot after he got the benefit of the easy lead on a badly biased track. I'd be especially eager since Baffert already questions his suitability for the classic distance and he'll take a lot of money because of the Beyer.

re: Plenty of Options for Bayern after Haskell Win

Coldfacts — Thu, 31 Jul 2014 12:14:54 GMT

Pedigree Ann,

"There are no guarantees in pedigrees, just probabilities"

As usual I cannot disagree with you.

Base purely on probability, the ability Bayern has shown from day one, coupled with his pedigree, it is likely he will turn out to be a better horse than California Chrome despite his no show in the Preakness..

Do not forget he won his first two starts over 7F & 8F pulling a bus whereas CC won one of his first two starts at 4.5F.

The probability of CC being the Derby and Preakness winner was very remote based on his pedigree. There is a greater probability that Bayern will eventually emerge as the true champion of CA. This is assuming Shared Belief is not as good as he appears.

re: Plenty of Options for Bayern after Haskell Win

Pedigree Ann — Thu, 31 Jul 2014 07:38:46 GMT

Coldfacts - there are no guarantees in pedigrees, just probabilities. If they were, a gelding by Java Gold out of a Slew o' Gold mare would have won the Belmont instead of becoming champion sprinter Kona Gold.

re: Plenty of Options for Bayern after Haskell Win

Coldfacts — Thu, 31 Jul 2014 01:35:53 GMT

Rachel best 3YO Filly ever

Bayern: “He is super-fast”

The above colt is not super-fast but rather has excellent tactical speed.

Derby Trail 8F – 1:36.73 – 1st

AK Derby 9F – 1:49.68 - 3rd

Preakness – 9.5F – 1:54.84 - 9th.

Haskell – 9F 1:47.82 – 1st

The above times are no reflective of super-fast horse. The 1:20.75 he recorded in the Wood Stephens is consistent with times recorded for 7F at Belmont by graded and allowance horses.

“No way he wins carrying his speed a mile ¼ against the top 3YOs”

Oflee Wild the sire of Bayern was sired by Wild Again the winner of the inaugural running of the 10F, BCC. Oflee Wild’s dam was sire by Seattle Slew. Oflee Wild was therefore bred to run all day. The fact that he flopped in the top 3YO races including the KD does not mean he cannot sire a 10F horse.

Bayern’s dam Alittlebitearly was sire by Derby and Belmont winner Thunder Gulch. Her dam was sires by Alydar who needs no introduction. Bayern’s immediate family suggests he will have no problems carrying his speed 10F. He has shown that he can rate and stamina should not be a problem. His dam was unraced which is a big plus.

re: Plenty of Options for Bayern after Haskell Win

chris miskell — Wed, 30 Jul 2014 20:38:16 GMT

I would think now would be the time to roll the dice and go for the Travers. It would hold a great deal more weight than the PA Derby in the quest for a title. Right now, Chrome is the clear leader in the Eclipse race and it is going to take a win in the "fourth" classic race plus success (finishing ahead of CC) in the BC Classic to take the title.

re: Plenty of Options for Bayern after Haskell Win

Rachel best 3 yr old filly ever — Wed, 30 Jul 2014 17:49:23 GMT

Bayern should be pointed to PA.Debry, then BC dirt Mile. He is super fast and must have the *Lead* type. Mile and 1/8 at this stage of his career is his limitation. I believe he wins those 2 races but no way he wins carrying that speed going a mile 1/4 against the likes of Tonalist & Wicked Strong in the Travers. In the BC no way he carries that speed against the like of Palice Malice, Shared Belief, Tonalist, Wicked Strong, Cali Chrome, Game on Dude etc. Get a BC win going a Mile Baffert.

re: Plenty of Options for Bayern after Haskell Win

Tommyboomer — Wed, 30 Jul 2014 13:08:58 GMT

Seems like Baffert would be in a pickle to run both Bayern and Game on Dude in the Classic. They'd likely burn each other out. If Game on Dude fairs poorly in the Pacific Classic, I could see him move to the Dirt Mile? the owners would ultimately decide. Great column. I look forward to following it.

re: Plenty of Options for Bayern after Haskell Win

Frank Angst — Wed, 30 Jul 2014 13:00:11 GMT

The Belmont Oaks was a BC Challenge race and Minorette punched her ticket to the BC Filly & Mare Turf. In general, most of the BC Challenge Races don't carry age restrictions (except for the 2yo races to come, obviously), but there are a few races selected that are restricted to 3yo.

re: Plenty of Options for Bayern after Haskell Win

Frank Angst — Wed, 30 Jul 2014 12:52:15 GMT

Trebloc ... The Woodward is not a Breeders' Cup Challenge race. Your thinking on the distance makes sense, if you don't think the 3yo can go a mile and a quarter. But the Pa. Derby offers a big purse and chance to face only 3yo.

re: Plenty of Options for Bayern after Haskell Win

Pedigree Ann — Wed, 30 Jul 2014 12:50:24 GMT

Do you really believe that any of the Southern Hemisphere horses, in the primes of their careers, will skip the rich races in their home countries to ship in for the BC? Especially not the South Africans, who must spend up to six months in quarantine to enter other major racing countries. The Melbourne Cup is worth Aus$6 million and is the goal for every horse in Aus/NZ with a group win at 10f or more; the BC Turf is a non-starter.

re: Plenty of Options for Bayern after Haskell Win

Frank Angst — Wed, 30 Jul 2014 12:45:56 GMT

Thanks for the compliments, yes we'll try to stay on top of the Breeders' Cup Challenge series. As John Gosden has supported the Breeders' Cup over the years, I would certainly think it would be, at the least, a back-up option for Taghrooda.

re: Plenty of Options for Bayern after Haskell Win

Trebloc — Wed, 30 Jul 2014 12:02:06 GMT

Frank,

Is the Woodward a win and your in race? If so, why wouldn't a three year old colt run, get the weight break and face a smaller field. Especially if you know the colt cannot get the classic distance?

Great blog!

re: Plenty of Options for Bayern after Haskell Win

English Pete — Wed, 30 Jul 2014 10:28:58 GMT

I really liked this blog. I think it's a great idea, and will be looking forward to the updates.

re: Plenty of Options for Bayern after Haskell Win

Carlos in Cali — Wed, 30 Jul 2014 05:38:41 GMT

Why wasn't the inaugural Belmont Derby won by Mr. Speaker designated a "win & you're in" along with the Belmont Oaks?..

I'm pretty sure Baffert will aim his speedsters Bayern(Dirt Mile) & Game On Dude(BCC)on said schedules. No need for the stablemates to duel each other.

re: Plenty of Options for Bayern after Haskell Win

smarie — Wed, 30 Jul 2014 03:36:36 GMT

I hope John Goshen reconsiders and brings Tag hood a to run in the BC Turf. I would live to see her run.

re: Plenty of Options for Bayern after Haskell Win

chris miskell — Wed, 30 Jul 2014 01:58:36 GMT

Baffert never worked for Lukas. They both came out of the Quarter Horse world, but that was about it.

re: Plenty of Options for Bayern after Haskell Win

BelmontBarb — Wed, 30 Jul 2014 00:18:12 GMT

Yes ~ plenty of "Options" for Baffert - remember - he was the Assistant Trainer to D.Wayne some time ago - some things never change

re: Plenty of Options for Bayern after Haskell Win

-Keelerman — Tue, 29 Jul 2014 22:33:12 GMT

Terrific thoughts, Frank Angst! I'll look forward to reading your future posts!