Steve Haskin's Derby Dozen

Derby Dozen - April 30, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

2013-04-30T17:23:00Z

War Pass—Runup the Colors, by A.P. Indy

Gave him the work of the day on April 27 when 10 Derby horses worked. Just love the way this colt finishes and gallops out. Borel kept him right on the rail as usual, and although he again switched leads three times in the final furlong, he still flew home in :11 3/5 and galloped out some seven lengths ahead of Charming Kitten.

Orb Shug McGaughey

Malibu Moon—Lady Liberty, by Unbridled

I could easily have made him No. 1 based on how he has flourished at Churchill Downs and how he has continued to look and do better by the day. His gallops have been smooth as silk, and his demeanor has been of a colt who is sitting on the race of his life. McGaughey is extremely confident and that’s good enough for anyone.

Verrazano Todd Pletcher

More Than Ready—Enchanted Rock, by Giant’s Causeway

If you’re going strictly by looks, he is a standout. A big, strong, handsome colt, he dwarfs those around him and exudes class. His work April 27 was excellent and I like the way he traveled through the stretch and how he galloped out. The big question is where he’s going to be placed and what kind of pace pressure he’s going to face.

Overanalyze Todd Pletcher

Dixie Union—Unacloud, by Unaccounted For

This is the first of the longshot specials, not that he should be a longshot. But he will be ignored because of the slow time of the Arkansas Derby and who he beat. The track at Oaklawn this year has been on the deep side and I just love the way he opened up on the field late and just kept going. Turned in a strong work with Palace Malice.

Palace Malice Todd Pletcher

Curlin—Palace Rumor, by Royal Anthem

More and more people seem to be latching on to him as a live longshot, and rightly so. His half-mile work in company with Overanalyze was strong. The only reason to be a bit skeptical is blinkers on. Although he probably needs them and should benefit from them, a change of equipment for the Derby is not what you want to see.

Normandy Invasion Chad Brown

Tapit—Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor

Chad Brown has done a great job getting him sharp, with some brilliant works over the past month, and it is highly unlikely we’ll see him as far back as he’s been in recent starts. If he breaks well, expect to see him no worse than mid-pack. He just needs to make that explosive run on the far turn and not wait until the final sixteenth.

Itsmyluckyday Eddie Plesa Jr.

Lawyer Ron—Viva la Slew, by Doneraile Court

He no doubt will be the forgotten horse. He shipped well from Calder and looked like a million bucks on the track April 28. Even though he just jogged around there, he acted like he owned the place and was strutting along with his neck slightly arched as if he’s been there his whole life. Distance is a slight question, but the talent sure isn’t.

Goldencents Doug O'Neill

Into Mischief—Golden Works, by Banker's Gold

I admit this colt could be ranked way too low, especially considering the high degree of optimism in his camp. But so much depends on the draw and where he’s placed. He’s going to need every break to get the 1 1/4 miles. O’Neill has done a super job getting him to settle and relax early. Wouldn’t mind seeing him relax on the lead and try to steal it.

Oxbow D. Wayne Lukas

Awesome Again—Tizamazing, by Cee's Tizzy

Like Palace Malice, he hasn’t had the opportunity to show what he’s capable of. Between the bad posts, the premature moves, and having to come from dead-last in the Arkansas Derby, he deserves to get a break. He’s been like a coiled bundle of energy and is rarely still. He’ll have to harness that just a bit in the race, but he is definitely raring to go.

Mylute Tom Amoss

Midnight Lute—Stage Stop, by Valid Expectations

A big under-the-radar colt who seems to be coming up to a peak performance. Amoss has been training him just the way he did for the Louisiana Derby, and if you like Revolutionary you obviously have to at least give him a legitimate shot at an upset. He’s a well-balanced colt with an excellent disposition and must be respected.

Java's War Kenny McPeek

War Pass—Java, by Rainbow Quest

Well, you know one thing, he’s going to be at the back of the pack and is going to have to find a way to get through or around a 20-horse field. I actually liked stablemate Frac Daddy’s work a little better when they went in company, but he has more credentials of the two, and has to be respected for his monster closing punch and big effort at Tampa.

Vyjack Rudy Rodriguez

Into Mischief —Life Happened, by Stravinsky

I wish I knew what to make of him and what to expect. I know his last work was panned big-time, but he just may be a horse who needs encouraging in his works. I also can’t help but remember the quick acceleration he showed in the Wood before flattening out slightly at the end. But with the lung infection and time at Fair Hill, who knows?

Derby Dozen - April 23, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

2013-04-22T18:30:00Z

Revolutionary Todd Pletcher

War Pass—Runup the Colors, by A.P. Indy

Departing’s impressive score in the Illinois Derby flattered the Louisiana Derby form. When WinStar announced that the “Revolutionary” buttons were in, I have to admit I shuddered. Between the buttons and the jockey poll that wasn’t, I started feeling that marketing jinx kicking in. But that’s just in jest. I really liked his :48 4/5 work inside a workmate, especially his super gallop-out, going out another eighth in :12 2/5. Went in :24 4/5 and :24 flat, hugging the rail the whole way, with Borel barely moving his hands. He does keep his head a bit high and switched back on to his left lead, which he has a tendency to do, after apparently being distracted by the shadow of the sixteenth pole. He and Borel should be made for each other, as he will go through any sized hole Borel asks him to. Put a fearless rider on a fearless horse who can come from anywhere on the track and you’ve got a darn good team. His speed figs are nothing to rave about, but he hasn’t had a chance to show what he’s really capable of. The one time he did, he ran a huge Thoro-Graph number in his maiden victory and a 102 Beyer. This well might be deeper than we think.

Orb Shug McGaughey

Malibu Moon—Lady Liberty, by Unbridled

When McGaughey uses the word “excited” three times in one comment, you can start heading to the windows. That’s how many times he used it following Orb’s work at Payson Park, in which he went 5f in company in 1:02 2/5. All Shug wanted to see was a strong final quarter and Orb obliged with a :23 4/5, out another eighth in about :12 1/5. A bit surprised to see that he ran a career best Thoro-Graph figure in the Florida Derby, equaling Itsmyluckyday’s in the Holy Bull, which was only a quarter of a point off Verrazano’s top 2013 figure in his 16-length allowance romp. So, the five weeks should have him ready for another huge effort on Derby Day. Question is, was his speed figure based more on Dreaming of Julia’s mind-boggling, record-high Thoro-Graph number that same day?

Verrazano Todd Pletcher

More Than Ready—Enchanted Rock, by Giant’s Causeway

Speaking of good works, you had to like several aspects of his 5f drill in 1:00 1/5, in which he relaxed outside a workmate through a slow quarter in :25 1/5, then poured it on with an eighth in :11 4/5 and a final quarter in :23 2/5 before galloping out 6f in 1:13, up 7f in 1:26 4/5 and a mile in 1:41 3/5. He was being asked down the stretch more than Revolutionary was, but it was a longer work and much longer gallop-out. His workmate actually was going the easier of the two. With the Wood behind him, it wouldn’t come as a surprise if he pulled a Barbaro and won off. Remember, Barbaro also won his final prep by a hard-fought three-quarters of a length. With horses this brilliant, the prep often is the calm before the storm. There is no way he came close to giving his all in the Wood.

Overanalyze Todd Pletcher

Dixie Union—Unacloud, by Unaccounted For

Dare I put a horse who ran 1 1/8 miles in 1:51 4/5 this high? The last time a horse ran that slow in the Arkansas Derby, the springs in Hot Springs were barely lukewarm. But visually, that is what a Derby horse is supposed to look like, and I can’t get past that. He actually has a strong Thoro-Graph pattern and has already run a fig at 2 that is fast enough to win the Derby. That fig in the Remsen is as fast as Verrazano’s two stakes wins and he appears to be heading back to that number. True, he didn’t beat much, but when they run through the wire like he did and gallop out that strongly, you have to think there’s a lot more there. And remember, Pletcher’s best Derby finishes (a first, two seconds, a third, and two fourths) all came off three weeks rest. If you're looking for a proven commodity with speed and stamina who is coming up to the Derby the right way and should be a huge overlay at double-digit odds, this colt very well may be the best bet of the race.

Normandy Invasion Chad Brown

Tapit—Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor

Worked a half-mile by himself at Churchill and did the opposite of what you would have expected, going the first half in :23 2/5 and second half in :25. He hit the pole in full flight after a sixteenth of a mile run-up and was rolling that opening furlong. Brown looks to be putting a bit more early speed in him. He is on a strong Thoro-Graph pattern and should be coming up to a career best effort. He just needs to make more headway from the quarter pole to the eighth pole and put in that explosive move on the turn that he showed in the Remsen, when he was right alongside the leaders at the eighth pole. Don’t want to see him doing what he did in the Risen Star and Wood. He has to be in contention turning for home. Remember, his female family is not exactly inundated with stamina.

Palace Malice Todd Pletcher

Curlin—Palace Rumor, by Royal Anthem

I said last week the key is how he bounces out of the Blue Grass off two weeks rest and having to come back in three weeks in the Derby. Well, after watching him on HRTV bouncing all over the track and so full of himself that Pletcher couldn’t even grab hold of him, I got what I wanted to see. Dogwood president Cot Campbell said he almost dumped his rider one morning. He could very well have won the Blue Grass had he not spied the tractor tracks and lose focus, changing leads twice in the final furlong and shifting lanes. Next big test will be to see how he works with Mike Smith next weekend. If you go by speed figs, you probably won’t like him, but his La. Derby was a total toss and his last was his first time on Polytrack and he had to do the dirty work going after Rydilluc, which left him vulnerable to the deep closers. I don’t think we’ve seen anywhere near his best.

Itsmyluckyday Eddie Plesa Jr.

Lawyer Ron—Viva la Slew, by Doneraile Court

The question with him is the distance. Can his raw talent get him that extra furlong? He had no response when Orb came up to him in the Florida Derby and took a while to finally get the better of a sprinter. Loved his 1:43 mile breeze at Calder, which should put a lot of bottom in him. He obviously wasn’t wound fully tight following a two-month layoff off back-to-back negative Thoro-Graph figs. There is no doubt he’s fast enough to win the Derby. He should have regressed off his negative fig in the Gulfstream Park Derby, but actually ran a faster number in the Holy Bull. So we know he’s an exceptional colt. He’s bred top and bottom for toughness and soundness and that also should help him in the Derby.

Goldencents Doug O'Neill

Into Mischief—Golden Works, by Banker's Gold

He’s another who is a question mark at a distance, but with him it’s a combination of pedigree and running style. He did relax better in the Santa Anita Derby, but still was a bit speed-minded the opening quarter before finally settling into a good rhythm. We know the brilliance and talent are there, but how will the Derby scenario play out? Can he look Verrazano in the eye at some point and still have enough left to be competitive in the final furlong? If no one wants the lead, he might be better off taking charge and trying to steal the whole thing rather than monkey around attempting to rate off a slow pace and then try to outclose the closers. The last thing you want is to get his blood boiling early on. One thing we do know, he’ll be right there at the head of the stretch and it’s just a matter of how much he has to push him home.

Vyjack Rudy Rodriguez

Into Mischief —Life Happened, by Stravinsky

His Thoro-Graph pattern is quite interesting. He closed out 2012 with a huge figure, then regressed in his stretch-out to two turns. But he rebounded with another big number in the Gotham and actually equaled that number in the Wood, despite exiting with a lung infection. Those two numbers make him competitive with anyone. The time spent in rehab at Fair Hill, using their hyperbaric chamber, looks to have done wonders for him and I can’t wait to see him work at Churchill and how he progresses leading up to the Derby. The question in the Wood is, did he fail to catch Verrazano because of the bleeding and lung infection or did suffer the bleeding and lung infection because of the strain of trying to catch Verrazano? If he’s going to get the 1 1/4 miles, good chance it’ll be mainly because of maternal great-grandsire Nureyev, who helps get that pump going, as he did for Big Brown.

Java's War Kenny McPeek

War Pass—Java, by Rainbow Quest

Although the Blue Grass was a big effort, if you’re going to make a good case for him it will have to be off his performance in the Tampa Bay Derby. Although he wasn’t catching Verrazano, he was running strongly and pulled well clear of the others. Just can’t glean much from Polytrack, especially when you have two deep closers flying from the back of the pack together. His one poor dirt effort was at Churchill Downs. He was sixth in the Kentucky Jockey Club, beaten 5 1/4 lengths, and didn’t put in much of a run after going wide, but he looks to be a much improved horse now. You always have to take Kenny McPeek’s horses seriously, especially on the big stage.

Oxbow D. Wayne Lukas

Awesome Again—Tizamazing, by Cee's Tizzy

I really wanted to put him higher, but I can assure you right now that I will be betting him straight on Derby Day at a big price. He is another who has not been able to show what he can do, because of bad posts and a trip last time out that took him totally off his game. You can bet Stevens has gotten to know him better and will have him well-placed this time. He has excellent tactical speed, is push-button whenever you ask him, and has the pedigree to carry him 1 1/4 miles with no problem. I believe he could prove to be the big overlay of the field. As for his Thoro-Graph figs, he put together three straight huge efforts after making a significant leap from 2 to 3. He then regressed off those three races in the Arkansas Derby, but never seemed happy running at the back of the pack with all that dirt kicked in his face. Still, he was beaten a length for second and was just finding his best stride in the closing yards. Don’t underestimate this colt.

Mylute Tom Amoss

Midnight Lute—Stage Stop, by Valid Expectations

When you have a big, strapping horse who has always been kind of lazy by nature working a half in :47 4/5, second fastest of 81 works at the distance, and the trainer says he’s usually not that into it when he works alone, you know you’ve got something positive going on. You’re always looking for that eager horse who wants to go out there and train, and when he’s also on an upward spiral, as this colt is, and just coming into his own, you again have a recipe for a good longshot play. Only problem with him is the thud that was heard when it was announced Rosie Napravnik will be riding him. That thud was the sound of his odds hitting the floor. Whatever odds you were hoping for, just expect a lot less. But the positive is that you get Rosie. WinStar and Pletcher just have to hope the fans didn’t get it right.

Knocking At The Door

Once again, the temptation was great to return LINES OF BATTLE to the Top 12, even if just for the unknown factor. Unlike many of O’Brien’s previous Derby starters, this colt has mostly dirt breeding and a strong classic lineage, with the best Darby Dan Farm throughout his tail-female line. And you can bet the UAE Derby will have him dead-fit. This will be O’Brien’s most potent Derby entry and he says the colt has been training great since the UAE Derby. He is at least a must-use saver bet, just in case.

Wayne Lukas is pulling out all stops in an attempt to get WILL TAKE CHARGE fit and ready to go 1 1/4 miles off a seven-week layoff. This 17-hands colt worked a mile in 1:41 3/5, picking it up nicely at the end, with a final two eighths in :12 3/5 and :12 1/5. That’s a good solid come-home time going a mile. He’s bucking history big-time with such a long layoff, but for Thoro-Graph followers, note his fig jumped nine points in the Rebel and was four points faster than his previous high, so perhaps he’ll appreciate the layoff. It’s just something that hasn’t been accomplished since the early part of the 20th century. Only Needles in 1956 came close with a six-week layoff.

It looks as if Bob Baffert’s only chance to avoid a shutout is to get GOVENOR CHARLIE to the race sound and healthy. You can’t be happy with the foot issue that sent him to Rood & Riddle, but he seems to be over that, and Baffert still has plenty of time to monitor his progress. Even if he does make the race, he has a ton of history going against him, mainly with only three career starts and none at 2.

BLACK ONYX’S Thoro-Graph figs are making significant leaps forward, and he’s sort of sitting there as an unknown factor. He did break his maiden impressively on dirt going a mile, and the Rock Hard Tens are only going to get better with time. Kelly Breen is sneaky-good and has already pulled off a Belmont Stakes shocker. There will be absolutely no issues when it comes to getting the 1 1/4 miles.

Of the others, FRAC DADDY made a huge leap forward in the Arkansas Derby after battling a couple of setbacks early in the year, and the best race of his life came in the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill. GOLDEN SOUL has upside to him after a solid fourth in the Louisiana Derby, in which he was parked out in the middle of the track, but he needs to make big improvement in his Thoro-Graph figs. Distance would be no problem for him. FALLING SKY has good speed and would be better suited in the Preakness, as he has not made any improvement in his speed figures since last year. CHARMING KITTEN is a pure guess, as he has no dirt starts in seven career races. But he does pack a strong closing punch.

Handicapping the old-fashioned way

Remember, before Beyer, BrisNet, Ragozin, and Thoro-Graph, there was the good old-fashioned simple speed rating and track variant in the DRF? The former has been tweaked a bit over the years, but I thought in such a confusing year, it might be interesting to use them to see who the fastest horses are. In simpler times, many people would just add the speed rating to the track variant, and the latter still is a useful tool to see just how fast or slow the track is.

So, by adding up both figures for the horses’ last three races, here is what we came up with:

Verrazano	327
Vyjack	318
Normandy Invasion	313
Govenor Charlie	313
Goldencents	311
Mylute	307
Itsmyluckyday	306
Overanalyze	304
Oxbow	304
Charming Kitten	304
Revolutionary	303
Falling Sky	303
Java’s War	296
Will Take Charge	291
Orb	290
Palace Malice	290
Super Ninety Nine	289
Golden Soul	286
Black Onyx	285
Frac Daddy	269

The highest numbers for a single race are:

Verrazano	111
Vyjack	111
Mylute	111
Itsmyluckyday	110
Black Onyx	110
Govenor Charlie	109
Verrazano	108
Verrazano	108
Charming Kitten	108
Normandy Invasion	107
Black Onyx	107
Govenor Charlie	107
Normandy Invasion	106
Overanalyze	106
Oxbow	106
Will Take Charge	106

Derby Dozen - April 16, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

2013-04-15T19:22:00Z

Revolutionary Todd Pletcher

War Pass—Runup the Colors, by A.P. Indy

Castellano’s decision to drop him for Normandy Invasion has forced me to keep him at No. 1. I’m just a sucker for the disrespected. Bottom line is I still see no reason to replace him. He has had as atypical a Derby campaign as any top horse in memory and still keeps delivering race after race, despite trips that would stop most horses. First, he spends the winter in frigid NY while Pletcher’s other big 3-year-olds bask in the Florida sun; then he’s sent to the farm during the heat of the Derby trail, and finally, loses his rider. Talk about different, love WinStar’s fan poll to help choose a rider, but Pletcher ultimately made the final call. He’s proven to be a dream horse to ride, because he’ll go inside, outside or through horses to get the job done. He didn’t lose any training at the farm, and was able to get away from the grind for 12 days and get a lot of grazing in. This colt has the ability to keep himself fit, as evidenced by his winning the Withers off only one half-mile work in 36 days and no works in the 13 days leading up to the race. He’s only one of four Derby hopefuls to run a triple-digit Beyer. Even if you don’t like him to win the Derby, you have to admire him.

Orb Shug McGaughey

Malibu Moon—Lady Liberty, by Unbridled

So, get this: Joel Rosario was the regular rider of Orb, but because the colt was considered only a very slight possibility for the Fountain of Youth days before the race, McGaughey freed Rosario to ride Speak Logistics. Orb winds up running and winning with Velazquez aboard, then repeated in the Florida Derby. So, by losing the mount on Orb, Rosario was then free to ride Animal Kingdom in the Dubai World Cup, run the same day as the Florida Derby. Velazquez then winds up taking off Orb for the Kentucky Derby to ride Verrazano and Rosario lands back on the Orb for the Derby, only instead of the $1.4 million in purses he would have won on Orb, he won $10 million in purses on Animal Kingdom. We’re not done. Rosario also had been offered the mount on Itsmyluckyday for the Holy Bull and Florida Derby after regular rider Paco Lopez for some odd reason took off the horse to ride Bernstein in the Holy Bull, but Rosario was already committed to Sr. Quisqueyano. If he had taken that commitment on Itsmyluckyday, he wouldn’t have ridden Animal Kingdom or Orb on March 30. You gotta love this game.

Verrazano Todd Pletcher

More Than Ready—Enchanted Rock, by Giant’s Causeway

This colt had the audacity to remain undefeated by not impressing people in the Wood Memorial. He didn’t “wow” anyone in the Tampa Derby; oh, wait, the horse he beat by three lengths came back to win the Blue Grass. His final 3f in :36 3/5 in the Wood wasn’t impressive enough because the pace was very slow. I’m not saying he’s a lock in the Derby by any means, but what more does this horse have to do to get the respect an undefeated horse deserves? What good did “wow” do for Bellamy Road or Sinister Minister or Bodemeister or any horse that ran dazzling final preps? Are there concerns about the 1 ¼ miles? Yes, of course; that’s why he’s No. 3 and not No. 1, but this colt has done nothing wrong and his “prep” races may not be as underwhelming as many think.

Normandy Invasion Chad Brown

Tapit—Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor

As expected, the bandwagon is starting to fill up already, and you can bet the money will come pouring in on him, especially with Overanalyze crushing his field in the Arkansas Derby. In the Wood, he was pretty much taken out of his game plan due to the dawdling pace and still flew home late with a final 3f in :36 1/5 and galloped out strongly well past the wire. He obviously impressed Castellano to make him go off a horse as talented and well-bred as Revolutionary, a dual graded stakes winner, to ride a horse who has never won a stakes. Brown couldn’t be happier with the way he bounced out of the Wood, and all things point to a big effort in the Derby.

Overanalyze Todd Pletcher

Dixie Union—Unacloud, by Unaccounted For

Sometimes the eyes say one thing and the stat sheet says another. How can a horse look as visually impressive as Overanalyze did in the Arkansas Derby and run so slowly and get such a low Beyer? I will go by what my eyes tell me and consider how much ground he lost the entire trip over a sticky track and how powerful he looked in the final sixteenth and how strongly he galloped out. He was just getting started when he hit the wire. Love to see that. His Futurity score was as powerful a stretch run as I saw all year by a 2-year-old, and his Remsen victory was as gutsy an effort as I saw. It is interesting to note that Pletcher’s best Derby finishes – a win, 2nd, 3rd, and two 4ths – all came with horses coming off three weeks. I no doubt will be criticized for having too many Pletcher horses so high, but this is about the individual horse. Pletcher just happens to train them. Getting back to the slow time, it’s starting to look more and more as if the Derby is going to be run in slow time, so if everyone is slow, these final prep times may not be that significant. It’ll be more about who is peaking on that one day.

Palace Malice Todd Pletcher

Curlin—Palace Rumor, by Royal Anthem

The key to him is how he bounces out of the Blue Grass, having gone into the race off two weeks rest and having to come back in three weeks in the Derby. He was getting tired, judging by his switching leads twice in the final furlong, but Keeneland can be demanding on horses on or near the lead going a distance, and he did a lot of the dirty work as the only horse to go after Rydilluc and running hard to put him away in his first start ever on a synthetic surface. He still only got caught in the final jump by a horse who had already run big in a grade I over this track and who is a two-time winner on grass. This was a huge effort over a track on which he didn’t seem all that comfortable down the stretch, and he gets a lot of credit for trying as hard as he did even though he was out of sync and noticeably tired. That’s why it is important to see how his energy level is in the next couple of weeks. Let’s just say his now dead-fit.

Goldencents Doug O'Neill

Into Mischief—Golden Works, by Banker's Gold

Yes, I’m well aware he’s too low for a Santa Anita Derby winner who ran a 105 Beyer, but I still have some concerns about his ability to get 1 1/4 miles tracking a testing pace. Even though he settled better, he still was pulling a bit that first quarter, and I feel his best shot to win the Derby is on the lead and hope everyone, especially Verrazano, leaves him alone. The key to him is how he trains at Churchill, although I would have loved to seen him work over the track. His pedigree does have enough stamina scattered throughout to negate the speed, it’s just the uncertainty of whether he can turn it off if a good horse looks him in the eye early. The horse is immensely talented and it wouldn’t come as a big surprise if he won, but I’m still trying to get a feel for him as a 10-furlong horse.

Java's War Kenny McPeek

War Pass—Java, by Rainbow Quest

He is another who could very well be ranked too low, especially considering how far back he came from in the Blue Grass and how wide he was turning for home. His record indicated he should have loved the synthetic surface, and closers often do very well over this track. He is related to such top-class grass horses as turf champ Fiji, Cacoethes, and Subordination, but also to quality dirt horses Fabulous Notion and Treacherous. The key race for him was the Tampa Bay Derby, which was his breakout race, finishing a strong second to Verrazano. Churchill is conducive to synthetic horses, but it’s just a question of whether he can win the Derby in a 20-horse field the way he won the Blue Grass and whether he can break with his field. He’s a small horse and I don’t know if he’s the type who can rough his way through all those horses, and he may have to depend on the overland route again. There is no one more dangerous than McPeek, who always must be respected.

Itsmyluckyday Eddie Plesa Jr.

Lawyer Ron—Viva la Slew, by Doneraile Court

This is the sneaky horse that could wind up being the big overlay, as people will tend to forget about him because of how decisively Orb beat him in the Florida Derby in his first 1 1/8-mile race. If he is in the 12-1 to 20-1 range at Churchill, he is worth a wager on the premise that he simply needed that last race coming off a two-month layoff and was expected to regress off back-to-back monster Thoro-Graph figs. I did have him ranked No. 1 for quite a while, and still must have faith in him off one defeat. As I’ve stated, I just wish he had put up more of a fight and had been able to dispose of Merit Man, who was coming off sprints, a little easier. I did like his 5f breeze in 1:01 at Calder. I have a feeling I’m going to start liking him more and more as we get closer and more people forget about him. He gets a lot of toughness from Lawyer Ron on top and Crafty Prospector on the bottom, but his pedigree is geared mainly toward a mile to 1 1/8 miles.

Oxbow D. Wayne Lukas

Awesome Again—Tizamazing, by Cee's Tizzy

OK, call it stubbornness or pig-headedness, but I’m still not ready to give up on him. It’s starting to sound repetitious, but he had another horrendous trip and had absolutely no shot to win coming from dead-last. Breaking from the 10-post for the third straight race, the only reason he wasn’t hung out to dry on the first turn this time was because he was taken back and just never looked comfortable. It’s extremely rare for a pace tracker who’s been running that way for seven races to suddenly become a stone closer and be effective. With all that, he still tried to make an impact on the finish and was beaten two necks and a half-length for second. Although he keeps getting beat, he’s been getting a lot out of his preps, and the feeling here is that he still has a big effort waiting to come out; all he needs is a clean trip for a change. And it would help if he can get a rider to stick with him so he could at least get to know the horse – Alvarado, Court, Thompson. Rocco, and Nakatani all rode him only once, then Court twice, then Smith and Stevens once. That’s seven riders in nine starts. In his five two-turn races, he’s drawn post 10 three times and post 11 once. The only time he drew well (post 4) and had a clean trip he won by 11 1/2 lengths. And remember, he’s already shown he loves Churchill.

Vyjack Rudy Rodriguez

Into Mischief —Life Happened, by Stravinsky

It’s hard to fault his record and his consistency; it’s just a question of how far he wants to go and much that lung infection/bleeding incident affected his performance in the Wood and more important, how it will affect his performance in a race as stressful as the Derby. He has been a regular visitor to Bruce Jackson’s hyperbaric chamber at Fair Hill Equine Therapy Center and Jackson said he’s been enjoying it and looks “absolutely fantastic on the track,” and Rodriguez has been there every day. He said the lung infection has completely cleared, and being at Fair Hill and taking it easy for a little while has done him a world of good. So this may be just what the horse needed to move forward on the first Saturday in May.

Mylute Tom Amoss

Midnight Lute—Stage Stop, by Valid Expectations

His six-furlong work in 1:12 2/5 confirmed him as a longshot special right now. He went in splits of :12 3/5, :12 1/5, :11 4/5, :11 4/5, :12, and :11 4/5, then galloped out another eighth in :12 4/5 for a 7f gallop-out of 1:25 and pulled up a mile in 1:39. That is what is called a Derby work and indicates he is a horse on an upward spiral. He also has some interesting classic horses in his pedigree. He has Derby winners Real Quiet and Strike the Gold close up in his pedigree, and his broodmare sire, Valid Expectations, is out of a mare by Iron Constitution, who was a fast-closing second to Seattle Slew (beaten 1 1/2 lengths) in the Preakness at 30-1. He gets a lot of his toughness from his inbreeding to In Reality, as well as having the hard-knocking Al Hattab in his tail-female family.

Knocking At The Door

Spiral winner BLACK ONYX finally returned to the work tab and it was worth the wait. The son of Rock Hard Ten drilled five furlongs in 1:00 3/5 at Churchill Downs, coming home his last eighth in :12 2/5 and galloping out six furlongs in 1:14 and pulling up seven panels in 1:28 1/5. He’ll have two more works before the Derby.

Black Onyx and WILL TAKE CHARGE, who worked a mile in 1:40 4/5 (he needed a long work like that) have the credentials and the pedigree to make some noise in the Derby, but the seven-week and six-week layoffs, respectively, is a bit of a concern, even though Animal Kingdom did it off six weeks. But that horse was a freak. What the two colts do have in common is that both are getting good at the right time and should improve off their last starts.

The other horse with a big question mark is GOVENOR CHARLIE, who looks as brilliant as any of them, but with only three career starts, he’ll be attempting something that’s been done once in the last 98 years. And again, the horse that did it, Big Brown, was a freak.

Although LINES OF BATTLE was dropped from the Top 12 to make room for others, he still intrigues me, and looks to be the strongest horse with the best pedigree that Aidan O’Brien has ever sent over here for the Derby.

A matter of time

A great deal has been written and discussed about the slow final times of a number of the major Derby preps. While that is always a concern in evaluating the overall speed of a crop of 3-year-olds, it is hardly written in stone that a slow prep equates to a slow horse or a slow Derby time or even winning the Derby.

Unbridled not only won the Florida Derby in a pokey 1:52, he came back to get soundly defeated in the Blue Grass before winning the Derby by 3 1/2 lengths.

Animal Kingdom won the Spiral Stakes in 1:52 1/5 before capturing the Derby in his first start ever on dirt.

Street Sense was beaten in the Blue Grass, run in 1:51 1/5, but won the Derby by open lengths.

Lil E. Tee won the Jim Beam Stakes (now the Spiral) in a sluggish 1:53 2/5, then was beaten in the Arkansas Derby before winning the Kentucky Derby.

Northern Dancer had won the Flamingo in a sharp 1:47 4/5, but when he came back and was all out to win the Florida Derby in 1:50 4/5, Bill Shoemaker took off him to ride Hill Rise in the Derby, which Northern Dancer won in record time.

As we all know, Secretariat ran the fastest Derby in history, but was beaten four lengths in the Wood Memorial, run in 1:50 3/5.

Genuine Risk was beaten 1 1/2 lengths in the Wood Memorial, run in 1:50 4/5, but became the first filly since Regret to capture the Run for the Roses.

Carry Back was beaten three lengths in the Wood Memorial, run in 1:50 1/5, but came back to win the Derby and Preakness.

Everyone knows how Canonero II romped in the Derby and then set a track record winning the Preakness, but his final Derby prep in Venezuela, at about 1 1/8 miles, was run in 1:54 4/5, which was four-fifths slower than he ran in the Preakness at 1 3/16 miles.

To demonstrate how time can vary, Easy Goer won the Gotham by 13 lengths in a near-world record 1:32 2/5, then had a tougher time in the Wood Memorial, run in 1:50 3/5.

A Nerud double?

A few weeks ago, I wrote a column about John Nerud’s influence on this year’s Derby trail, mainly through the Nerud-bred Unbridled and Quiet American and tracing back to his foundation sire Fappiano (who Nerud owned and bred) and ultimately Fappiano’s broodmare sire Dr. Fager (who Nerud owned and bred) or Dr. Fager by himself. Even with losing Flashback, Mr. Palmer, Super Ninety Nine, Texas Bling, Capo Bastone, and He’s Had Enough, the ones remaining in the Derby from those families include Verrazano, Orb, Normandy Invasion, Will Take Charge, Govenor Charlie, Frac Daddy, and Mylute. That is an amazing impact, especially coming in the year of your 100th birthday.

We’re not done yet. Turning to the Kentucky Oaks, the fillies tracing to those same families include Gulfstream Park Oaks winner Dreaming of Julia, Sunland Oaks winner Midnight Lucky, Gazelle winner Close Hatches, Ashland winner Emollient, Santa Anita Oaks and Las Virgenes runner-up Fiftyshadesofhay, and Fair Grounds Oaks runner-up Flashy Gray.

How fitting for the last of the true living legends to make such a profound impact on the classics and the sport itself.

Derby Dozen - April 9, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

2013-04-07T21:59:00Z

Revolutionary Todd Pletcher

War Pass—Runup the Colors, by A.P. Indy

Although we’ve seen a number of talented 3-year-olds, this year’s Derby trail has become pretty much of a crapshoot. Leaving him at No. 1 mainly because there’s no reason to put anyone else there. Basing that a good deal on pedigree, especially the stamina in female family, and the colt’s will to win and ability to overcome adversity. There’s been a lot of talk about Goldencents’ 105 Beyer, as well as Verrazano’s 95 and other sub-100 figs by Eastern horses, but let’s not forget, this colt ran a 102 Beyer breaking his maiden and is heading back up there, despite having terrible trips. Who knows how fast he can run with a clean trip?

Orb Shug McGaughey

Malibu Moon—Lady Liberty, by Unbridled

I’ve been saying all along that, as a traditionalist, I’m pulling for the colt’s connections because they do things the right way. He’s improving the right way, he’s been trained the right way, and he runs the right way. My main question is how fast he really is, as his times haven’t stacked up against other times on the same card. But I don’t believe we’ve seen his best, despite four straight victories. Would Johnny V and Cordero actually take off an undefeated Pletcher colt? Let’s just say I’m sure Shug is already shopping around.

Verrazano Todd Pletcher

More Than Ready—Enchanted Rock, by Giant’s Causeway

There are going to be some who liked his Wood victory and others who didn’t. The bottom line is he did what he had to and got a lot out of the race. That 1:13 4/5 three-quarters was a gift for a horse with his brilliance, but his last 3f in :36 3/5 was solid and he did fight off the challenge of a very classy horse. This colt gallops out after his works faster than that, so it’s safe to say he’s not a speedy-crazy horse and can settle. Once they go three-quarters that slow, you have to ignore speed figures, as it becomes a freaky kind of race. Bottom line is when you can get a good prep, show some fortitude, and win it, too, that’s an ideal scenario. He did try to get out on three separate occasions in the stretch. He’s going to confront a much stiffer pace in the Derby, so we still have no idea how he’s going to handle that going 1 1/4 miles in a 20-horse field.

Normandy Invasion Chad Brown

Tapit—Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor

Whereas the Wood was VJ-Day (Verrazano’s Victory in Jamaica Day), it also was D-Day (or Derby Day) for Normandy Invasion, whose closing rush to snatch second gave him the 40 points he needed to make the Derby cut. Despite the slow pace, his :36 1/5 final 3f still was very impressive, as was his strong gallop-out, opening up 5 lengths. He did have his head cocked to outside coming down the stretch. As soon as he hit the finish line, the rush began to jump on his bandwagon, with jocks agents all over the country no doubt groveling to get the mount. Like Velazquez, it will be hard for Castellano to go off Revolutionary, but this also is a very enticing mount. Cannot recall when the four possible Derby favorites had only two riders. His female family has a good deal of speed influences, but he runs like a horse who wants to keep going.

Oxbow D. Wayne Lukas

Awesome Again—Tizamazing, by Cee's Tizzy

Still believe this colt has tremendous upside and would have to be a trip handicapper’s delight. Just want to see what he can do with a good trip, where he doesn’t lose a ton of ground and doesn’t make a premature move. His running style would seem to fit Gary Stevens perfectly. Last time he had a good trip he won by over 11 lengths. He is one horse whose pedigree shouts 1 1/4 miles on both sides and I just want to see a big effort that can move him forward one more time.

Goldencents Doug O'Neill

Into Mischief—Golden Works, by Banker's Gold

His Santa Anita Derby score was impressive for sure, but I just don’t know what to make of him going 1 1/4 miles. His pedigree is inundated with sprinters and milers, even though his jockey already has him going 1 1/2 miles. His 105 Beyer was a big jump from last, but he came home his last 3f in a moderate :38 1/5. But to his credit he did run his opening three-quarters in 1:10 2/5 and beat the third horse by almost 10 lengths, although this was not a strong field as a whole by any means. Imagine O’Neill winning back-to-back Kentucky Derbys with Mario Gutierrez and Kevin Krigger. He’s already done it in the Santa Anita Derby, which is pretty remarkable in itself.

War Academy Bob Baffert

Giant's Causeway—Cabbage Key, by A.P. Indy

Pulling this one out of left field, despite the fact he’s behind the eight-ball and is a big lazy horse with not a lot of racing foundation. But I feel he’s going to run big in the Arkansas Derby. Watched his last race several times and was very impressed with the way he won and the way he moves. Remember, Manando, the horse he just cruised by with little effort, gave Goldencents all he could handle in the Sham Stakes (98 Beyer), and he came home in :23 4/5, :24, and :06 2/5 eased up. What I also love about him is how he takes after his sire and most of all his broodmare sire, running low to the ground. His stride is extremely reminiscent of A.P. Indy and rightly so. His dam is inbred 4x3 to Gay Missile, who is the great-granddam of A.P. Indy and granddam of Mayville’s Magic, who was bred to A.P. Indy to produce War Academy’s dam. So, you’ve got A.P. Indy’s great granddam close up twice in his female family. Also, I love the fact that in the year of Secretariat’s 40th anniverary of his Triple Crown sweep, this colt is inbred three times to Big Red through super mares Terlingua (dam of Storm Cat), Weekend Surprise (dam of A.P. Indy), and Secrettame (dam of Gone West). Many questions, but I’ll take a shot with him.

Vyjack Rudy Rodriguez

Into Mischief —Life Happened, by Stravinsky

It looked as if he were making a winning move after Rosario set him down in the stretch, but he couldn’t get closer than Verrazano’s flank. It was reported he bled a ‘2’ on a scale of ‘5,’ but bleeding through Lasix, you have to ask if the bleeding was caused by his struggle and inability to catch the winner. Once again, I honestly don’t know how far he wants to do go, but I am still convinced he’s an extremely talented horse. It also must be noted that inner track horses took a beating from Florida shippers all afternoon. He tried awfully hard, but I think the slow pace hurt him, as he had to really buckle down to try to catch Verrazano, who had a lot left after those inert fractions. Normandy Invasion was able to come late and pick up the pieces and just nail him for second. I’m not crazy about a horse going into a stressful race like the Kentucky Derby having just bled and having a dicey temperament on top of that. I think he’s better than No. 9, but for now this is as high as I can rank him until I see him train at Churchill.

Itsmyluckyday Eddie Plesa Jr.

Lawyer Ron—Viva la Slew, by Doneraile Court

Here we go again. It’s not easy moving him down to No. 10 after having him No. 1 for so many weeks, and he is another who could be an overlay come Derby Day. I just wish he had put up a little more of a fight when Orb came to him and had an easier time putting away Merit Man, who was coming off all sprints. There is always that nagging feeling that perhaps he simply ran too fast too early and peaked way too soon. It wasn’t surprising he regressed off his two monster speed figures in the Holy Bull and Gulfstream Derby, but I was hoping he would be more competitive. Let’s see how much energy he shows in his training after getting to Churchill.

Mylute Tom Amoss

Midnight Lute—Stage Stop, by Valid Expectations

This big good-looking colt takes after his sire in appearance and is really coming around the right way. His second in the Louisiana Derby fits the pattern of many Derby winners. He has the right temperament, can sprint or go long, and is sound and battle-tested. And he will have blinkers off second time in the Derby. He’s had nine starts at five different tracks and has really flourished since his two-month break from Dec. to Feb. He needed the Risen Star, where he was beaten only 3 1/4 lengths, and took a huge step forward in the Louisiana Derby, which put him on an upward spiral. He did extremely well on his early heart scans as a yearling, which no doubt has helped him bounce back race after race. After he vanned from Fair Grounds to Churchill they had to breeze him a half five days later because he was feeling so good. This is your true dark horse who will fly in under the radar.

Rydilluc Gary Contessa

Medaglia d'Oro—Swift and Classy, by Clever Trick

Been waiting for him to work and he appeared to put in a useful drill at Keeneland, but who knows what’s a good work over that track? He has two major hurdles to get over – Polytrack and then dirt. So even if he runs big in the Blue Grass against a large, talented field and makes it into the Derby, you still don’t know what he’ll do at Churchill. Yes, he ran poorly in his only dirt try, but it was his career debut and supposedly he lost it in the paddock, being exposed to something new. But now that he’s matured, those problems apparently are behind him. I have him on here for a simple reason – I just feel there is something special about him. Of course, that is based on his grass races and I’m obviously guessing his talent will translate to other surfaces (He definitely is bred for the dirt). If it doesn’t we’ll know next week and he can go back to the grass. But if it does….

Lines of Battle Aidan O'Brien

War Front—Black Speck, by Arch

Again stepping out of the box and going against final times, considering his about 1 3/16 miles in 2:02.05 in the UAE Derby was incredibly slow and that he’s never been on dirt. But there was something visually impressive about his race. Putting a watch on the race and the World Cup, he came home his final quarter and three-sixteenths four-fifths slower than Animal Kingdom (:25 1/5 final quarter and :19 2/5), which actually is pretty solid, considering the UAE Derby was his first start beyond a mile and he defeated the first four finishers of the 1 3/16-mile Al Bastakiya. Despite the deep, laboring track, over a distance well beyond the farthest he’d ever run, and not having raced in almost five months, he was able to turn back the challenge of Elleval on his inside and actually was drawing away at the end. And I love the fact his dam is a half-sister to Dynaformer and traces to one of Darby Dan’s foundation mares Golden Trail. Also from this family are grade I dirt horses Brian’s Time and Darby Creek Road. It’s a longshot, but in a seemingly wide-open year like this you might as well take a stab, and you have to admire O’Brien’s persistence in trying to win the Derby. Master of Hounds did run huge in 2011, finishing fifth, beaten only 5 1/4 lengths.

Knocking At The Door

You can’t say I’m not persistent when it comes to PALACE MALICE. No, I’m not crazy about having to bring him back in two weeks to run over Polytrack in a full field in order to try to get enough Derby points, but I will stick with him just in case the Royal Anthem grass influence comes out in the Blue Grass. He certainly deserves the chance after his horrid trip at Fair Grounds. The firm belief here is that he desperately needed the Risen Star, having had only one seven-furlong allowance race in almost seven months, and his Louisiana Derby was a complete toss after a nightmarish trip in which he was blocked in traffic throughout most of the stretch run. Who knows, maybe he’s not as good I think, but he at least deserves a shot to prove it one way or the other. There also is a possibility he could wait for the Lexington Stakes if his connections feel those 20 points added to the 10 he already has will be enough to get him in the Derby. I feel the Arkansas Derby, with a much smaller and likely weaker field and on dirt, would suit him far better, especially with 18 horses trying to get in the Blue Grass and several horses destined to draw terrible posts.

Rounding out the list of contenders, in addition to the brilliant, but inexperienced Sunland Derby winner GOVENOR CHARLIE and the vastly improved Spiral winner BLACK ONYX, are some live horses who could make a big leap after next weekend. They are WILL TAKE CHARGE (who had been No. 12 for the past several weeks), JAVA’S WAR (who needs only to duplicate his Tampa Bay Derby performance to emerge as solid contender), UNCAPTURED (who should improve big-time off his Spiral second, going 1 1/8 miles off a four-month layoff), OVERANALYZE (whose form was boosted by Normandy Invasion, and who is looking to rebound off a disappointing effort in the Gotham), DEN’S LEGACY (who is always right there against the best), DYNAMIC SKY (who has a great deal of potential), FALLING SKY (who ran deceptively good in his two races at Tampa), WEST HILLS GIANT (the pacesetting runner-up in the Gotham), DEWEY SQUARE (who is looking to find his form from last year’s Kentucky Jockey Club), the steadily improving Santa Anita maiden winner FOOTBRIDGE, and NOBLE TUNE (who is looking to transfer his turf form to the synthetic). You can make a case for any of these horses.

Derby Dozen - April 2, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

2013-04-01T22:27:00Z

Revolutionary Todd Pletcher

War Pass—Runup the Colors, by A.P. Indy

After several flips of the coin, finally decided to make him No. 1 slightly over Orb, mainly because he was my last No. 1 (Feb. 26) before Itsmyluckyday, and he won having to travel and run over a new track and beating a deeper field. You have to admire his determination and will to win and his ability to beat you in many ways. He’s already shown in his maiden win he can blow you away, and in the Withers and Louisiana Derby he showed he can beat you from anywhere – close up or far back -- and he can bull his way between horses or go seven wide, as he did around the entire far turn in the Louisiana Derby. He looked to be in danger when Mylute came charging up on his outside, but dug in and repelled the challenge and then galloped out well clear of the field. Considering he hadn’t run in eight weeks, this was an excellent Derby prep. It must be noted, however, the time did not compare too well with the other big races on the card and his 93 Beyer was well below the others. But he’s already run a 102 Beyer and is heading back towards that, and I don’t think this colt has gotten a chance to show his very best. That could come on May 4.

Orb Shug McGaughey

Malibu Moon—Lady Liberty, by Unbridled

Everything about him and his connections spells tradition, and you have to feel that’s not going to escape the Derby gods. It’s pretty remarkable how much this colt has improved since arriving in Florida, and it’s even more remarkable that he keeps moving forward with each victory, which now has reached four straight. And you can bet McGaughey has left even more in the tank and won’t have him peaking until May 4. The one downside is that he ran 10 lengths slower than Dreaming of Julia’s freaky performance in the Gulfstream Oaks (17-point Beyer difference) and four lengths slower than the Rampart. Also, the 29-1 and 103-1 shots that were battling on the lead finished third and fourth, which makes you wonder how good the horses were behind them. But despite all that, he did run right by a very talented horse and drew off with authority. This colt can be placed anywhere on the track and still close, and if you look at his last four wins, he runs only as fast as he has to. As a traditionalist, it’s hard not to root for Shug, Janney, and the Phippses. It’s been a long time coming.

Verrazano Todd Pletcher

More Than Ready—Enchanted Rock, by Giant’s Causeway

Still want to see him step up in company and see what he’s capable of against classy and proven stakes horses, and most important, see if he can settle off the pace and come home. As stablemate Shanghai Bobby showed, until these brilliant pace horses actually are put in that position, you don’t know how they’ll handle it. He’s already in the Derby, so, with only three career starts, this is the time to actually prepare him for the race and get him battle-tested. On the other hand, in some ways you’d like to see someone show some superstar potential in these big stakes, and he’s the most logical one to step up and assert himself as something special.

Vyjack Rudy Rodriguez

Into Mischief —Life Happened, by Stravinsky

After his last two works – 5f in :59 and 6f in 1:12 3/5 – you know he’s going to be sharp and fit for the Wood Memorial. Perhaps he will be the potential superstar who emerges from the race. He certainly would be if he can beat Verrazano and several other classy horses that are expected to run. Until a horse is beaten, you never know how high his ceiling is. Let’s just hope all this stuff going on with Rodriguez doesn’t become a distraction that would take away from this horse’s accomplishments. We’ve been down this road before on the Derby trail.

Itsmyluckyday Eddie Plesa Jr.

Lawyer Ron—Viva la Slew, by Doneraile Court

He had a perfect trip in the Florida Derby and had every chance to win, but simply was outrun by Orb. Smart move by Trujillo to push on at the five-sixteenths pole and try to get the jump on Orb, but he was no match for the winner. There have always been some doubts about his distance capabilities, but he just may have needed the race after a layoff. After all, he had run two monster figures on Thoro-Graph this year, both negative numbers, so it shouldn’t have come as a surprise that he regressed a bit. This should ultimately help him in the Derby and put him on an upward swing again. We still have no idea how far his natural ability will carry him, but he obviously must improve off this race if he’s going to compete with natural 10-furlong horses like Orb and Revolutionary.

Oxbow D. Wayne Lukas

Awesome Again—Tizamazing, by Cee's Tizzy

Breezed a slow six furlongs in 1:16 for Arkansas Derby. When you think about it, it’s difficult to assess the merits of the Fair Grounds and Oaklawn horses. They have been inconsistent all winter, but he at least has had excuses for his defeats and got a lot out of them. And he has shown the ability to demolish his opposition, as long ago as the LeComte seems. Looking forward to seeing what he does with a good post and a good trip. At least you know he has the pedigree to get the mile and a quarters with no problem.

Hear the Ghost Jerry Hollendorfer

Ghostzapper—Rehear, by Coronado's Quest

With no one blowing me away this past weekend, I actually considered moving him up into the Top 3, but his lack of racing experience and foundation prevented me from doing so. If, however, he should exhibit that same explosive burst of speed in the Santa Anita Derby, he no doubt would catapult up near or at the top. This no doubt is an enormously talented horse and you don’t normally see horses do what he’s done in his three career starts, but again, the key is three career starts, two of which were at six furlongs. He, like Verrazano, could prove to be something special, but he can expect a much better performance this time from Flashback, who should be tougher to run down, assuming he learns from the San Felipe.

Flashback Bob Baffert

Tapit—Rhumb Line, by Mr. Greeley

He is going into the Santa Anita Derby in much the same situation as Verrazano in that he needs to rate off the pace and come home, and also get enough of a gut check to overcome his lack of racing experience. He got battle-tested in the San Felipe and just needs to take it a step farther and show he can win under fire. We’ll also see how well he stretches out to 1 1/8 miles. We need some indication he’ll be able to handle 10 furlongs on the first Saturday in May. We might have had that indication had he not been taken off the rail and hooking up with Goldencents in a speed duel in the San Felipe.

Elnaawi Kiaran McLaughlin

Street Sense—Pilfer, by Deputy Minister

If you want a more detailed reason why he’s on here prior to the Wood Memorial, you’ll have to read my accompanying column. His third in the Gotham was an excellent effort for a young inexperienced colt, who should only keep improving. He just needs a better trip this time, and definitely should appreciate the return to the main track. The column will break down his Gotham and detail his pedigree.

Normandy Invasion Chad Brown

Tapit—Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor

This colt means business. He threw in his second straight bullet work (a half in :47 4/5) and third straight brilliant work, as he sharpens for his big test in the Wood Memorial. He will have to overcome Verrazano, Vyjack, and a big field and find a way to get first or second. But if he does make it into the Derby, watch out. He will be very dangerous. Brown has him razor sharp and he’ll be running on a track he likes. The big question is the trip, especially after all the trouble he found in the Risen Star. He likes to come from far out of it, so he will need luck just to put himself in position to snatch first or second from the two undefeated favorites.

Rydilluc Gary Contessa

Medaglia d'Oro—Swift and Classy, by Clever Trick

What the heck, I’ve been pushing this horse for so many weeks, it’s time to put him on here, even though he still has so many questions to answer. Sometimes, a horse just hits you smack on the head and you feel as if you’re watching something special. Well, this is such a horse, but how that is going to equate to Polytrack and then dirt, who knows? For now, let’s just put him on here based on pure speculation in case he somehow can find his way into the Derby field.

Will Take Charge D. Wayne Lukas

Unbridled’s Song —Take Charge Lady, by Dehere

Breezed a half in :49 1/5 as he prepares for a freebee in the Blue Grass Stakes. Even if he doesn’t hit the board, you can be sure he will be in the Derby, because the Blue Grass provides you with an instant he-didn’t like-the-Polytrack excuse, and Lukas will use, even though he’s already over it. We’ll see how that big stride takes to it going 1 1/8 miles.

Knocking At The Door

No one has ever said racing was fair, and that was never more evident while watching poor PALACE MALICE trapped helplessly behind two speed horses who were going nowhere, while Edgar Prado was pulling back and throttling down a horse who looked ready to bust the Louisiana Derby wide open from the three-eighths pole to the quarter pole. Then it went from bad to worse after Prado took him out looking for running room. He still looked like the winner if only he could make it to and through a hole that be was beginning to open. But just as he was about to go for it, Code West came in and bumped him soundly, knocking him right back where he was, behind horses going nowhere. He in turn knocked into SUNBEAN, who was trying to sneak through on the inside, forcing him into the rail. Palace Malice now was a beaten horse with absolutely nowhere to run. Prado did see a slight opening on the rail and went for it, hoping maybe to pick up a little piece of it late, but that also closed up, and he was forced to come back out. Still stuck in traffic, he just went through the motions after that, finishing seventh, beaten 7 1/4 lengths.

The more I watch the race and see the how well Palace Malice was moving on the far turn without being asked, the more I’m convinced he would have won, possibly convincingly, had he been able to continue his run. And I believe he still would have won had he made it to and through that opening at the three-sixteenths pole. But it wasn’t meant to be, and now comes the decision, do you wheel him back in two weeks and hope he can Polytrack his way into the Derby? That’s not Pletcher’s style, but Cot Campbell has to be tempted to give it a try. The horse certainly deserves the chance if he's up to the quick turnaround.

Louisiana Derby runner-up MYLUTE, who looked to have Revolutionary measured inside the eighth pole, ran a much improved race without blinkers for the first time following his decent effort in the Risen Star, and he should be able to build on that in the Kentucky Derby. His neck defeat is the type of prep race that wins a lot of Derbys (see Silver Charm, Funny Cide, Go for Gin, Street Sense, Super Saver, Grindstone, Lil E. Tee, and Real Quiet et al), in which the prep race runner-up has something to build on. It was between him and Rydilluc for that final open spot, and I just decided to go unconventional. I have him ranked No. 13 right now and wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the Top 12 in the next week or two.

The other Derby horse to emerge over the weekend was UAE Derby winner LINES OF BATTLE, who will be yet another Aidan O’Brien horse to try the Derby. The time was extremely slow, but he should get a great deal of fitness and bottom from the race, and I loved the way he found another gear late and drew clear of the runner-up after being challenged from the inside. Of all the horses O’Brien has sent to Churchill, this colt looks to have the best shot of making his presence felt. His female family is dynamite, and not only is it loaded with dirt influences, he traces to the same mare as Wood Memorial hopeful Elnaawi, and that is the Darby Dan Blue Hen Golden Trail (see the column on Elnaawi). Don’t overlook this colt, who will be in the Top 12 as well in the weeks to come. He made a handsome presence in Dubai and carries himself like a good horse.

Arkansas Derby Watch: Do not forget about OVERANALYZE, despite his disappointing effort in the Gotham. This horse has yet to put together two big races, although he gets a pass for his well-beaten Iroquois third, due to a terrible trip and a questionable ride. He’s bounced back from dull efforts before and his “3 3/4” Thoro-Graph figure in the Gotham actually wasn’t bad at all and allows him room for improvement. Asking a 2-year-old to go 1 1/8 miles is a tough assignment, especially if they’re involved in a gut-wrencher as he was. You had to figure it would take him and Normandy Invasion, and Delhomme a race to get back to their best. Delhomme was eased in his return, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Overanalyze and Normandy Invasion improve big-time in their second start.

Last week, I wrote a column on 100-year-old John Nerud's influence on this this year's Derby trail. Well, Nerud came within a neck of sweeping the three big stakes this past weekend. Florida Derby winner Orb, UAE Derby winner Lines of Battle, and Louisiana Derby runner-up My Lute all have the Nerud-bred Fappiano in their pedigree through Unbridled, Quiet American, or Rubiano. And this weekend, Nerud has Verrazano, Normandy Invasion. and Mr. Palmer in the Wood Memorial and Flashback and Super Ninety Nine inthe Santa Anita Derby. Two weeks ago, he was represented by Govenor Charlie, winner of the Sunland Derby in track-record time. The week before that, he had Rebel Stakes winner Will Take Charge. This is quite a legacy he is leaving.

Derby Dozen (video) - March 26, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

2013-03-25T17:56:00Z

Itsmyluckyday Eddie Plesa Jr.

Lawyer Ron—Viva la Slew, by Doneraile Court

This is it. If you’re going to put all your eggs in one basket, you might as well do it on Easter weekend. Had his final Florida Derby tuneup with a half in :49 2/5. It’s simple: first or second and he’s in; third and he’s in danger of being excluded. Let’s just hope he has a clean trip and there isn’t a three-way photo to sweat out.

Verrazano Todd Pletcher

More Than Ready—Enchanted Rock, by Giant’s Causeway

He’s already secured a spot in the Derby; now it’s time for a little gut check and to put some bottom under him. Worked a half in :49 3/5, but DRF had him “galloping” out in 1:01 2/5, up in 1:13 2/5. Those are :11 4/5 and :12 eighths and horses don’t gallop out a quarter in :23 4/5, so that was more like a 6f work. It was exactly what he needed – slow early and fast late and a good tightener. Time to find out just how special this colt really is.

Revolutionary Todd Pletcher

War Pass—Runup the Colors, by A.P. Indy

Here is another top-ranked colt who must deliver, but he has to do it in a big field over a foreign surface against some talented locals and a tough stablemate. He’s had a habit of finding trouble through no fault of his own, and this definitely is not the time to continue that trend. Officially worked a half in :48 1/5 with Overanalyze, but more like 5f in 1:00 3/5. He will go into the Derby off one race in 13 weeks, while stablemate Shanghai Bobby will have one race in 14 weeks. We obviously won’t know until Derby Day how effective this conservative approach will be. The one positive is that both colts at least have a decent 2-year-old foundation. Perhaps Pletcher will have them peaking on the first Saturday in May, as I’ll Have Another did last year.

Orb Shug McGaughey

Malibu Moon—Lady Liberty, by Unbridled

No pressure on him at all in the Florida Derby. He already has enough projected points and with his style of running, he only needs to be closing at the end to set him up for the Derby. If he wins, fine. Knowing McGaughey, he’s more interested in having him peak on the first Saturday in May, and the way he’s been progressing with each race he seems ready to do just that.

Oxbow D. Wayne Lukas

Awesome Again—Tizamazing, by Cee's Tizzy

His overall record does not begin to do him justice. In his four 2-turn races he’s drawn post 10 twice and 11 once and got hung very wide all three times. The only time he drew a good post he won by 11 ½ lengths. His two worst finishes, well-beaten 4ths, were on a synthetic surface, and in his career debut he was pulled up and vanned off. So, his record on conventional dirt is 5 starts, 2 wins, a second, a third, and a fourth (beaten a half-length). In 8 starts, he’s been ridden by 6 different jockeys. Oh, yes, he’s already won at Churchill Downs by 4 ¾ lengths in 1:22 4/5 for 7f. His Thoro-Graph figs are very strong. From 2 to 3, he improved from an 8 ¾ to a 2, then paired up the 2, and then improved to a 1 ¼. No one has put together 3 consecutive figs this strong. All this adds up to a very live horse.

Vyjack Rudy Rodriguez

Into Mischief —Life Happened, by Stravinsky

He looked super working 5 furlongs in :59 flat in company, galloping out way ahead of his workmate, and he just kept going well down the backstretch. The more you watch the Gotham the more you have to be impressed with his stride and powerful closing punch, and that was not even his style of running. Now he steps up in class in the Wood and we’ll see what he can do against Verrazano and a desperate Normandy Invasion.

Hear the Ghost Jerry Hollendorfer

Ghostzapper—Rehear, by Coronado's Quest

I keep bouncing back and forth where to put this horse. Winning the Derby off only two 2-turn races and two 6-furlong sprints is not an easy task. But Hollendorfer is one trainer you know will have him as fit as possible. We’ve seen that explosive late burst of speed sprinting and two turns. One more time and he has to shoot up the list. What makes him so perplexing is his lack of racing combined with an acceleration that is rarely seen. If those moves were real and not an illusion, then he has the potential to be something special.

Shanghai Bobby Todd Pletcher

Harlan's Holiday—Steelin', by Orientate

Worked 5 furlongs in 1:00 4/5 in company with Palace Malice. Strategy is going to play an important role in the Florida Derby and he has to show the ability to adapt to any pace scenario that may confront him. The big question is, do you go all out to win this race even if it’s on the lead or do use it to teach him how to settle off the pace and close? He did close his final quarter in :24 1/5 in the Champagne, so we know he can come home. This could become a cat-and-mouse game with Itsmyluckday. The wrong move and Orb could swallow up both of them. But Rosie knows this horse so well and she’ll put him where he needs to be.

Palace Malice Todd Pletcher

Curlin—Palace Rumor, by Royal Anthem

Looking over the Future Wager horses for a potential bargain, he was the one who jumped off the page at 42-1, which very well may look like the overlay of the year after next week’s Louisiana Derby. The way he’s been working and how much room for improvement there is off the Risen Star, there is no reason he shouldn’t run a big race. One of the best angles on the Derby trail this year is the fact that he was the only horse in the Risen Star making his two-turn debut, he had only three career starts, and had only one seven-furlong race in almost 7 months under his belt. There was no way he was anywhere close to 100% wound up for that race, and he still was beaten only a half-length and out-battled Oxbow for the show spot. He has the pedigree to go long and has been training super, working 5f in 1:00 4/5 in company with Shanghai Bobby. That’s the kind of 42-1 shot I want in the Future Wager. If he can get through a tough Louisiana Derby unscathed, watch out in Louisville.

Flashback Bob Baffert

Tapit—Rhumb Line, by Mr. Greeley

Like Verrazano and Hear the Ghost, he is light on racing experience with only four career starts, but he at least got a stiff test in the San Felipe and emerged a stronger Derby horse than he was before when had only two easy victories to his credit. As long as he doesn’t do anything to hurt his chances, like he did last time by engaging Goldencents early, he should be a tougher opponent in the Santa Anita Derby. The question is, did he just get tired late in the San Felipe or did Hear the Ghost turn on the afterburners in the final sixteenth?

Normandy Invasion Chad Brown

Tapit—Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor

He continues to train sharply for his big Derby push in the Wood Memorial. He followed up his :59 3/5 drill last week with a bullet 1:00 1/5 work, fastest of 30 works at the distance. You know he’s going to be flying at the end, but the main question is whether he’ll have a clean trip and doesn’t encounter the problems he did in the Risen Star. Those problems, mostly at the start, likely cost him enough to points to at least provide some breathing room going into the Wood. But again, when you have only two preps, you better make the most of both of them.

Will Take Charge D. Wayne Lukas

Unbridled’s Song —Take Charge Lady, by Dehere

With that big long stride of his and his ability to gut out close finishes, he’s always going to be dangerous, as long as he gets a track he can handle. Because of his stride, he most likely never got hold of the slop in the Southwest. He’s already won over Keeneland’s Polytrack, breaking his maiden there last year, so the Blue Grass should be a good prep for him, especially considering he’s already in the Derby field and just needs a good tightener to move him forward.

Knocking At The Door

Have to get this out of the way first. Although it has more to do with the Oaks than the Derby, was someone at The Jockey Club sleeping when they approved the name WAR RELIC for a 3-year-old filly? Have we lost touch with history to such a degree that a horse can be named after the most successful son of Man o’War at stud, whose remains along with Man o’War and War Admiral were moved to a place of honor at the Kentucky Horse Park? If this were Twitter, I would end this with #Blasphemy #Disgraceful.

Also, a mention must be made of Rob Whiteley, for years one of the most successful breeders in the country, who was responsible for dozens of grade I winners while operating his Liberation Farm on a much smaller scale than the major breeding operations. Whiteley no longer was able to overcome the breeding industry’s many economic pitfalls and was forced to liquidate his entire stock and retire as a Thoroughbred breeder. While it is sad and scary to think that someone as astute and successful as Whiteley could be driven to such an extreme by the banks, he at least was able leave the sport with a heckuva going away present as breeder of 3-year-old stakes winners ITSMYLUCKYDAY, RYDILLUC, and Saturday’s Rushaway winner CROP REOPRT. It is hoped that these three talented colts can keep Whiteley’s name up near the top of the leading breeders list – a place he occupied for many years.

Speaking of Rydilluc, even if I wanted to bet him in the Future Wager, I couldn’t, because he’s not among the 23 individual betting interests. Nothing against Noble Tune, but why is he on there and not Rydilluc? Noble Tune has only a head allowance victory on grass this year, while Rydilluc has two runaway grass victories, including the grade III Palm Beach Stakes. Have to admit, I don’t get that one at all. I’m also curious why Noble Tune is on there instead of Gotham runner-up West Hills Giant or fast-closing San Felipe third-place finisher Tiz A Minister, who was beaten a length by leading Future Wager contender Hear the Ghost and a half-length by Flashback? Noble Tune could turn out to be a terror on Polytrack and on dirt, but at this time I don’t know what he’s done this year to get on the list of betting interests over the aforementioned horses.

As for the weekend races, BLACK ONYX and UNCAPTURED both stamped themselves as legitimate Derby horses, mainly because they have already proven themselves on dirt and their performances in the Spiral Stakes indicate they should improve next time out. Both colts were very late changing leads and Uncaptured didn’t change until almost at the sixteenth pole. He just seemed uncomfortable on that track coming down the stretch and you have to give him credit for finishing a strong second over a deep synthetic track going 1 1/8 miles off a four-month layoff and physical problems. It is a difficult task for any 3-year-old to just return at 1 1/8 miles off a layoff over any kind of track, but to do it on that kind of surface says a great deal about the colt, who should be much stronger and fitter with this race under him. Once he did change leads in deep stretch, he was striding out much smoother to the wire. He does have back-to-back stakes scores at Churchill Downs, so all he needs to do is pick up a minimal amount of points in his next start to assure he makes it into the Derby field. He may be in already with 30 points and almost $400,000 in stakes earnings.

Black Onyx is now in the capable hands of Kelly Breen, who has saddled the Rock Hard Ten colt to two victories in as many starts. Although he finished a well-beaten fourth on the dirt at Gulfstream, he does have a victory at Aqueduct and a second at Belmont last year in off-the-turf maiden races. What made his performance in the Spiral so impressive was how wide he was for the entire race, especially going into the first turn and down the backstretch. So, he, too, will get a lot out of this race. Next stop Louisville.

At Sunland Park, Bob Baffert struck again, sending out the lightly raced GOVENOR CHARLIE to a five-length score in the Sunland Derby. The son of Midnight Lute, who is improving dramatically, but still has only three career starts, set a new track record of 1:47 2/5. So, does Baffert and Mike Pegram send him to the Derby with so little experience and having only won a grade III stakes at Sunland Park? The temptation is there for sure after such a dominating score, but it is asking a lot of the colt.

From a visual standpoint, the most imposing colt seen all weekend was CROP REPORT, who came from far back in last to blow away his opponents in the Rushaway Stakes at Turfway. Physically, this is the closest thing to Forego seen in many years, in size, color, stride, and even the way he sweeps around horses on the turn. He is spectacular to look at, especially in action where he dwarfs all the horses around him. Unfortunately, he is a May 31 foal and is not there mentally yet, so owner Team Valor will point him for the Belmont Stakes, with a likely prep in the Peter Pan. Like Forego, he should relish those big turns at Belmont.

One of the best works of the week was the 1:12 3/5 six-furlong drill by GROUND TRANSPORT, who rattled off his eighths in :12 2/5, :11 3/5, :11 4/5, :12 1/5, :12 1/5, and :12 2/5 in preparation for the Louisiana Derby. Also working for the Louisiana Derby were stablemates DEPARTING and SUNBEAN, who went their halfs in :47 1/5 and :48 1/5, respectively.

Some other works of interest include Florida Derby hopeful FRAC DADDY, who drilled five furlongs in 1:00 1/5, out in 1:13 1/5; SPEAK LOGISTICS, who went a half in a bullet :47 1/5 for the Blue Grass Stakes; and ELNAAWI, who tuned up for the Wood Memorial with a five-furlong breeze in 1:02 2/5 over the Belmont training track.

Also working for the Blue Grass was the aforementioned RYDILLUC, who breezed an easy seven furlongs in 1:30 on the turf.

Derby Dozen (video) - March 18, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

2013-03-18T18:35:00Z

Itsmyluckyday Eddie Plesa Jr.

Lawyer Ron—Viva la Slew, by Doneraile Court

After his easy mile breeze last week, he came back with a bullet 1:01 drill this week. Love the way he’s training for the Florida Derby. It seems like ages ago that this colt ran in the Holy Bull. Although he must finish 1st or 2nd to secure a spot in the Derby, it was smart of Plesa to back off after two consecutive blazing speed figures. In his Gulfstream Park Derby score he ran a whopping 9 3/4 points faster than his previous start on Thoro-Graph and one of only two negative numbers this year by a Derby horse (Verrazano being the other). Instead of regressing off that effort, he actually ran a full point faster, which is something you don’t often see with a young 3-year-old. He did have an excellent 2-year-old number at Calder in September to fall back on.

Verrazano Todd Pletcher

More Than Ready—Enchanted Rock, by Giant’s Causeway

If Pletcher can get him to win or even run big in the Derby, it would actually contradict what’s worked for him in the past. It is ironic that Pletcher usually likes at least 4-to-5 weeks between races, but the fact is, he has saddled six horses to finish 4th or better in the Derby, and all six went into the race off only three weeks, while all those given 4-to-5 weeks all ran poorly. Go Figure. Pletcher’s two best finishes in the past 11 years have been a win with Super Saver and a second with Bluegrass Cat, and both those horses prepped at Tampa Bay, so that at least bodes well for this colt, who could use as much fitness as he can get.

Revolutionary Todd Pletcher

War Pass—Runup the Colors, by A.P. Indy

Worked five-eighths in 1:00 3/5 for the Louisiana Derby, where he likely will meet stablemate Palace Malice. A big field is expected, and although a 1-2 finish would put both in the Derby, a third-place finish by one of them would put that horse teetering on the edge of elimination. It doesn’t take much to fall off the Derby trail these days. This colt has two major objectives at Fair Grounds. One, of course, is to finish first or second, and the other is keep out of trouble, something he’s had trouble doing, whether it’s getting clobbered coming out of the gate or getting trapped in a near costly traffic jam. The one time he had a clean trip he won by 8 ½ lengths, earning a 102 Beyer figure.

Orb Shug McGaughey

Malibu Moon—Lady Liberty, by Unbridled

Breezed a sharp half in :48 at Payson Park. He’s already in the Derby field with 50 points, and with a possible small field expected in the Florida Derby, there would be nothing wrong with a good second or close third, as long as he’s closing at the end. This will be his fifth race at a mile or longer, so he certainly will have enough foundation. Shug doesn’t run short horses. We doubt any 3-year-old has shown more improvement than this colt has, especially from his allowance score to his Fountain of Youth victory. Now, he just has to keep moving forward.

Hear the Ghost Jerry Hollendorfer

Ghostzapper—Rehear, by Coronado's Quest

The more I watch the San Felipe, the more I’m convinced this is a special horse and not just one who capitalized on a pace meltdown. Love the way he dug in and re-broke when Tiz a Minister came charging up alongside him from last and was actually pulling away from him in the final yards. And his final 1/16 in :06 flat was very impressive. You don’t normally see a horse rallying from 16 lengths back on the far turn and then get outclosed late. He has a very efficient way of moving and when he lowers his shoulder and levels off in the final hundred yards, the result is electrifying. In his first two starts at 6 furlongs he beat Let Em Shine and was a fast-closing 2nd to Distinctiv Passion, arguably the two fastest 3-year-old sprinters in California and then stretches out and beats the two most accomplished two-turn 3-year-olds in California. There is a question of foundation, but I’ll Have Another, of whom this horse reminds us, didn’t have much more racing foundation than he does.

Vyjack Rudy Rodriguez

Into Mischief —Life Happened, by Stravinsky

Breezed a half in :51 1/5 at Aqueduct, as he prepares for his showdown with Verrazano in the Wood Memorial battle of the unbeatens. He won’t have the services of his trainer for 20 days, as Rodriguez currently is serving a 20-day suspension for an old drug positive, which ends the day before the Wood. The only thing we should be concentrating on is this gelding’s unbeaten record and the incredible versatility he’s shown, whether it’s track surface, distance, or running style. His Gotham stretch run still may be the single most memorable moment on this year’s Derby trail. If only he can duplicate that on the main track against far better competition.

Oxbow D. Wayne Lukas

Awesome Again—Tizamazing, by Cee's Tizzy

This horse has been narrowly beaten in his last two races and keeps moving up the list. For the second straight race, he got hung 5-wide on the first turn and raced wide all the way to the quarter pole. This time, he actually made two early moves, one from 6th to 3rd nearing the backstretch and another from third to first on the far turn. When Super Ninety Nine ran right by the leader and began to open up, Smith went with him to prevent the Baffert colt from getting a big jump on him. It appeared as if he wasn’t aware just how quick and powerful a move Oxbow has and was all over the favorite in a flash. Then when Super Ninety Nine backed out of it, he found himself on the lead sooner than he wanted. This set it up perfectly for his stablemate. In our opinion, had Oxbow not lost so much ground or made those two premature moves, he would have won, Some will feel he’s run out of excuses after two defeats, but these are preps, and preps are for learning and moving forward. His Beyer figures are climbing, despite the defeats, and his Thoro-Graph figs have been very strong. Smith now knows the horse much better and we hope he sticks with him. He has stamina and a quick turn of foot that just needs to be timed correctly.

Shanghai Bobby Todd Pletcher

Harlan's Holiday—Steelin', by Orientate

Turned in a sharp 5-furlong drill in 1:00 flat in company with Palace Malice, second fastest work at the distance. Like with Itsmyluckyday, we have to keep going back to watch the Holy Bull to remember the race in detail. One thing that is most certain, he is going to be much more formidable with that race under him. Just would like to see him sit off the pace this time, although that might be tough if the Florida Derby comes up short with no speed. His running style is way too similar to Verrazano’s, but he’s the one who seems more ratable at this time. The reason he’s dropped several places is because of inactivity. If he had beaten Itsmyluckyday in the Holy Bull the way Itsmyluckyday beat him he’d probably be No. 1 right now. If he can somehow keep off the lead and close in the Florida Derby, he most certainly will move well up the list.

Flashback Bob Baffert

Tapit—Rhumb Line, by Mr. Greeley

Baffert was thrilled with his :48 2/5 half-mile work. Like Hear the Ghost, his race in the San Felipe seems better the second time around. The opening half mile was a killer, with him eyeballing Goldencents, and he showed a lot putting away a talented, more experienced horse. He tried hard down the stretch, but the pace took its toll, and ducking to the rail after clearing Goldencents just as the closers were bearing down on him didn’t help. While his performance was more impressive than first thought, the fact is, he still needs to learn to settle, which he seemed to be doing early in the race until he came off the rail to engage Goldencents and Salutos Amigos. We’ll see if the switch to Garrett Gomez helps.

Palace Malice Todd Pletcher

Curlin—Palace Rumor, by Royal Anthem

Worked five-eighths in 1:00 flat in company with Shanghai Bobby. His performance in the Risen Star seems more impressive now that Oxbow has come back to run big in the Rebel, at least big enough to justify the form of the race. We still come back to his inexperience in that race and how much room for improvement he has. If he moves forward at all off the Risen Star, there is no reason why he shouldn’t be right there in the Louisiana Derby, even with Revolutionary in there. If he does run the way we think he will and gets in the Derby, he has the right running style and should be very formidable going a mile and a quarter.

Normandy Invasion Chad Brown

Tapit—Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor

He needs a lot of luck in the Wood Memorial if he’s going to make the Derby field. After his bullet 5f work in :59 3/5, it would be a shame if he missed the cut, especially after his nightmare trip in the Risen Star, in which he got shut out on points. Remsen form has not held up so far, but he still looks like a top-class colt with a huge kick. If he can get past the Wood, we can see him coming back with another big effort in the Derby. Fox Hill could use a break in the Derby for a change after Hard Spun ran his heart out only to finish second in 2007 and Eight Belles ran an incredible race the following year only to run into Big Brown. Her death was one of the great tragedies in racing history. Could the racing gods be ready to reward Rick Porter, who certainly has paid his dues?

Will Take Charge D. Wayne Lukas

Unbridled’s Song —Take Charge Lady, by Dehere

Taking nothing away from his Rebel score, but he had a perfect setup, with Oxbow doing the dirty work up front. He is a big, long-striding colt who can gobble up ground and is a battler with the money on the line. But he needs to show he can run two good races in a row. His bad races have been terrible, but he does bounce back from them, and we’ll give him a pass on the Southwest, as it appears he absolutely hated the sloppy sealed surface. His only inbreeding is to Fappiano, which is a tribute to John Nerud on his 100th birthday.

Knocking At The Door

Is racing foundation a dying factor on the Derby trail? Hot Derby prospects Verrazano, Flashback, Hear the Ghost, War Academy, Departing, Ground Transport, and Tiz the Truth are just some of the horses who are looking to accomplish something that has only been done twice in the past 94 years – win the Derby with as few as four career starts. Of the two that pulled it off, Big Brown was a total freak in a mediocre crop and Animal Kingdom’s four races all were at a mile or longer. All the above mentioned horses will be attempting it with only two or three races at a mile or longer. There’s no saying it can’t be done, but history is against it.

If we were listing a baker’s dozen, WAR ACADEMY would be No. 14, right behind No. 13 RYDILLUC, following his 1 1/16-mile allowance victory Saturday. Although he didn’t beat much in the five-horse field, it was the way he did it that was impressive. We love the way he moves, much like his sire Giant’s Causeway, and how effortlessly he gets over the ground. Baffert has been high on him from the beginning and we’re just now seeing what this colt is capable of. What he has going against him is lack of experience, with only three starts, two of them in sprints. He desperately needs to get a gut check in his first and only attempt to pick up points. He just hasn’t been tested enough over a distance of ground. But there is no doubt the talent is there.

Speaking of Rydilluc, he turned in a bullet five-eighths breeze in 1:02 at Palm Meadows. This still is our live longshot, and he will remain an unknown even with a victory in the Blue Grass Stakes. Can he run huge over Polytrack and then on dirt at Churchill Downs? If he is as good on those surfaces as he’s been on grass, there is no telling what he’s capable of. What is most intriguing about him is that we haven’t seen any horse that strides out they way he does and is as athletic.

Although DEN’S LEGACY doesn’t win very often, you sure can’t knock his consistency and determination, as he is always in the picture, regardless of who he is running against and where. In the Rebel, he had a perfect trip, but could do no better than third, while returning with a pretty nasty gash on his back leg, which fortunately looks to be superficial. He tries hard every time and you have to admire him for that. TEXAS BLING also ran a good race in the Rebel to be fourth. He looked to be running on well in the stretch, but lacked a big closing kick at the end.

One of our big sleepers, DICE FLAVOR, drilled six furlongs in 1:14. We’ll see if he shows up in the Spiral. Private Terms winner MR. PALMER got right back on the work tab breezing a half in :49 2/5 for the Wood Memorial.

The late rush to Louisville continued this past weekend, as Darley’s soon to be Godolphin colt INCOGNITO ran off with a mile maiden race at Aqueduct. We’ll have to see if they throw him into a 100-pointer or perhaps try the Illinois Derby as a prep for the Preakness. By A.P. Indy, out of the top-class Octave, Incognito took the lead nearing the head of the stretch and was never asked, coming home in :24 3/5 to win as jockey Mike Luzzi pleased. This is another with beautiful action who appears to have a bright future. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin also has the promising ELNAAWI, third in the Gotham, likely heading to the Wood Memorial. Two races back, Incognito finished a good third to Elnaawi in a mile maiden race in the mud.

What makes this race even more significant is that Incognito was coming off a neck defeat to MR. PALMER, who turned in a huge effort last week to win the Private Terms Stakes for Bill Mott. So, each horse flattered the other. Mr. Palmer looks to be headed to the Wood Memorial.

In the early bird catches the roses department, we saw two monster debuts over the weekend, but, alas, neither colt is advanced enough to be ready for the Derby. ZAIKOV, a son of Distorted Humor who twice was consigned to sales and withdrawn each time, never raised a sweat in his six-furlong debut, winning off by 14 ¼ lengths in a snappy 1:09 3/5. He is trained by, and this getting to be redundant, Todd Pletcher.

The other horse, however, probably missed his calling in the Derby by one race. ABSTRACTION, trained by David Carroll, turned a mile and 70-yard maiden race at Fair Grounds into no more than a breezing workout, coasting to a 9 ¾-length victory. This son of Pulpit is out of a Quiet American mare and his third dam is a full-sister to Derby and Preakness winner Majestic Prince. Carroll is hoping to have him ready for the Belmont Stakes.

Derby Dozen (video) - March 12, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

2013-03-11T17:00:00Z

Itsmyluckyday Eddie Plesa Jr.

Lawyer Ron—Viva la Slew, by Doneraile Court

Debated long and hard whether to stay with him on top, and with so many lightly raced horses dominating the Derby lists, I decided to stay old school and go with the more experienced, battle-tested horse, who also worked old school, breezing an easy mile in 1:46 at Calder. You don’t see works like that anymore. He has so much more foundation than the others, and that’s kind of refreshing in a way. He has a decent amount of stamina through his sire and broodmare’s family, but the only concern is his speed-oriented tail-female family, which is why I like the long, easy mile work over the deeper Calder strip. He will spend Easter weekend putting all his eggs in one basket. And he’ll have to fill the basket with enough points to move on to Louisville.

Verrazano Todd Pletcher

More Than Ready—Enchanted Rock, by Giant’s Causeway

There is no doubting he is the now horse, and from a visual standpoint, he overwhelms and intimidates his opponents with his physical presence and humongous stride. Java’s War and Falling Sky looked like yearlings running next to a 5-year-old stud horse. The Tampa Derby was a big step forward, but can his freaky talent overcome his inexperience? If he’s going to carry his high cruising speed 1 1/4 miles it likely will be due to his fourth dam, the King Ranch-bred Remedia, who is by Dr. Fager, arguably the fastest horse in history to successfully carry his speed 10 furlongs, out of champion European filly Monade, winner of the English Oaks and second in the Arc de Triomphe. Monade is a half-sister to Miss Dan, who finished third in the Arc behind Sassafras and Nijinsky and second in the D.C. International behind Horse of the Year Fort Marcy. Remedia is the dam of Maskette winner and Alabama runner-up Too Chic, who produced Verrazano’s second dam, Ashland winner Chic Shirine, and champion older mare Queena, winner of the Ruffian, Maskette, and Ballerina. Remedia also produced Beat, the dam of Rising Moon, a stakes winner at 1 1/2 miles who placed in the 1 1/4-mile Suburban twice and 1 1/2-mile Brooklyn.

Revolutionary Todd Pletcher

War Pass—Runup the Colors, by A.P. Indy

Breezed five furlongs in 1:01 2/5, and will be heading for the Louisiana Derby, which would give him five weeks to the Kentucky Derby. This colt has had only one clean trip in five career starts and annihilated his opponents by 8 1/2 lengths going a flat mile, earning a lofty 102 Beyer Speed figure. He has the foundation, he’s demonstrated his doggedness and will to win, his speed over a distance of ground, and he has a dynamite female family. And remember, he was able to do what he did in the Withers coming off only one half-mile breeze in five weeks and no works in 13 days leading up to the race. You have to like a horse who can get fit off his gallops alone. There’s not a lot to pick apart with him.

Orb Shug McGaughey

Malibu Moon—Lady Liberty, by Unbridled's Song

Had his first work since the Fountain of Youth, breezing a half in :48 2/5 at Payson Park. There isn’t much more to say about him than what was said last week. He is another one for the old-school traditionalists to root for, having the foundation , the trainer, and the female family. He is a homebred, which I always like to see. And most of all, he’s probably shown as much improvement race to race than any 3-year-old on the Derby trail. If there is one thing you can count on, it’s that Shug will have him peaking on the first Saturday I May.

Vyjack Rudy Rodriguez

Into Mischief —Life Happened, by Stravinsky

So, which Vyjack are we going to see in the Wood Memorial? Can the stretch-running Vyjack outclose Normandy Invasion? Can the pace-pressing Vyack handle Verrazano? Assuming Verrazano does indeed run at the Big A, he’ll get his big class test, and so far, by all indications, he should be able to handle it. There is something about an undefeated horse, especially one with his versatility that makes for a more exciting Derby trail. And when you can blow by horses the way he did in the Gotham and then quickly draw off with long, powerful strides, you’re going to command an awful lot of respect.

Shanghai Bobby Todd Pletcher

Harlan's Holiday—Steelin', by Orientate

If you were going to play a horse in the future book or Future Wager based on how gratifying it would be to see him win and pay a good price, this would be the horse to bet. Not too long ago, he was considered a budding superstar, having won the Hopeful and Champagne. In the second Future Wager pool, he is the seventh favorite among the individual betting interests at 16-1. It is apparent that his head score in the BC Juvenile and slow closing fractions are being held against him, along with his first career defeat in the Holy Bull, and the notion he can’t get the mile and a quarter. All this may be justified, but the truth is, he ran a terrific race in the Holy Bull, breaking the track record in defeat and finished 11 ½ lengths ahead of the third horse. Can anyone say overlay?

Hear the Ghost Jerry Hollendorfer

Ghostzapper—Rehear, by Coronado's Quest

Visually, his San Felipe victory was very impressive, especially coming off only two six-furlong races, and you have to love the way this gelding explodes on a dime in the last sixteenth, whether it’s sprinting or two turns. But because of the pace meltdown (:45 3/5 first half and :49 2/5 next half) and having only three career starts and only one two-turn race, I’d like to give him one more race before evaluating him as a Derby horse. Also, as much ground as he was making up, there was another horse closing just as fast from 16 lengths back on the far turn. In the fourth quarter, run in :25 3/5, he lost a half-length, while Tiz a Minister made up nine lengths. To his credit, however, he did out-close Tiz a Minister after getting nearly headed in the final sixteenth. Happy to see Hollendorfer, one of my favorite trainers, back on the Derby trail.

Flashback Bob Baffert

Tapit—Rhumb Line, by Mr. Greeley

It wasn’t the defeat in the San Felipe that was unfortunate as much as the race not helping him move forward professionally. He looked to be in a great position settling in fourth on the inside when Leparoux, perhaps afraid of getting trapped, steered him out and right into an unwanted dogfight. Instead of rating nicely and saving ground, he now was engaged with a speed horse inside him, and to make it worse, his sudden move got Goldencents, who was trying to be rated, all fired up. Once these two eyeballed each other and got their blood up, it was a suicide mission from there on. To his credit, he put Goldencents away, but you could see him shortening stride, and his slow final five-sixteenths set it up for the closers. The good news is that he was beaten only a half-length. The bad news is that he failed to get what he needed mentally out of the race and we still don’t know how ratable he is.

Oxbow D. Wayne Lukas

Awesome Again—Tizamazing, by Cee's Tizzy

After running nearly 7 points faster than his previous best Thoro-Graph number, winning the LeComte by 11 1/2 lengths, one would naturally think he regressed, finishing fourth in the Risen Star. But the fact is, he ran a ‘2’ in both races, which is one of the faster figs by a 3-year-old this year. When they pair up like that, it would lead one to believe that the first one was no fluke. Lukas didn’t pick an easy spot, running him in what is expected to be a huge field in the Rebel Stakes, where everyone will be point hunting and post position will be important. But if he draws a decent post, he does have the tactical speed to avoid traffic. He just can’t make an early move like he did in the Risen Star. He turned in a solid 6-furlongs breeze in 1:13 4/5.

Palace Malice Todd Pletcher

Curlin—Palace Rumor, by Royal Anthem

Unlike Oxbow, he will return to Fair Grounds for the Louisiana Derby, where he should be much tighter and fitter than he was for the Risen Star. He loses Rosie Napravnik to Shanghai Bobby in the Florida Derby, but gets Edgar Prado, who has made a big comeback and is hot right now in stakes races, riding some classy Pletcher horses. It wasn’t that long ago that Prado was one of the main go-to riders in the country. I still feel this colt, who breezed a half in :49 2/5, has tremendous room for improvement following his first two-turn race and having only one sprint race in 5 1/2 months. He also has a strong pedigree and should only keep improving as the distances stretch out.

Normandy Invasion Chad Brown

Tapit—Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor

Breezed a half in :48 for his all or nothing attempt to make the Derby cut in the Wood Memorial. He will have to contend not only with his competition, which could include Verrazano, but a likely big field, and then hope he doesn’t encounter the kind of trip he had in the Risen Star, which was enough to shut him out in the points race. It’s going to be a pressure-packed time for the colt’s connections, but if he runs first or second and manages to get in the Derby, it will mean he was flying at the end, and that will make him a major contender, even though there are some question marks in his pedigree. If he does make a big run at the end and gets beat two noses, chances are slim that 24 points will get him in, but who really knows for sure what the cutoff will be.

Super Ninety Nine Bob Baffert

Pulpit —Exogentic, by Unbridled’s Song

Worked five furlongs in :59 4/5 in company with Den’s Legacy, who will accompany him to Oaklawn for the Rebel. This time it’s not going to be an easy stroll on the lead if Delhomme and Oxbow have anything to say about it, not to mention a full field intent on preventing another Baffert theft at Oaklawn. And hopefully, we’ll get a fast track this time. This colt continues to surprise Baffert, who keeps waiting for him to hit his distance limit. But he’s been re-breaking and kicking in and forcing Baffert to keep going on the Derby trail. But it’s a long way from 1 1/16 miles to 1 1/4 miles, or even 1 1/8 miles. Just ask Secret Circle and The Factor.

Knocking At The Door

Here’s the deal with Tampa Derby runner-up JAVA’S WAR. If he runs in the Blue Grass, he moves into the Top 12. If he ships to Dubai for the UAE Derby, he doesn’t. He could very easily win the $2 million prize, but it would seem to be asking too much of him to fly halfway around the world to compete on a demanding Tapeta surface and then fly all the way back home and run in the Derby. If it usually takes older horses several months to get over such a trip, how is he going to run back five weeks later at Churchill Downs?

What I loved about his performance was the way he was able to sustain such a powerful move for almost five furlongs over a testing surface and show no signs of slowing down. He’s already run big on turf and Polytrack, and it has to be extremely encouraging to see him run so well on dirt. His dam, Java, is a full-sister to female grass champion Fiji, winner of the Yellow Ribbon, Gamely, and Santa Barbara among others. His third dam, Careless Vision is a half-sister to the top-class Cacoethes, winner of the Turf Classic and placed in the English Derby, King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, Juddmonte International, and Japan Cup. She also is a half-sister to Santa Anita Oaks (then Santa Susana) winner Fabulous Notion and Not So Careless, dam of Subordination, winner of the Hollywood Derby, Eddie Read, and Brooklyn Handicap.

Kenny McPeek is as sharp as they come and he has an enviable choice. If anyone can get the horse to perform well in both the UAE Derby and Kentucky Derby it is McPeek. But it’s never been done before and traveling that far back and forth just seems too difficult to accomplish. Now, if he runs in the Blue Grass, that’s a totally different matter and he certainly would have to be considered a major Derby threat.

The other big losing stakes effort was the powerful stretch run from the clouds by TIZ A MINISTER, who proved his explosive victory in the Cal Breeders Championship was no fluke, as he rallied from 18 lengths back early to finish third in the San Felipe, beaten a length. The son of Minister’s Wild Cat has now run two monster races on the dirt after eight starts over grass and synthetic. In the Cal Breeders, he closed from 17 lengths back to win going away for trainer Paul Aguirre. Here is a $6,500 2-year-old purchase at Barretts by a stallion who stands for $4,000. To add to the rags to riches story, he was claimed for $40,000 in his second start. He looks to be an exciting addition to the Derby trail.

The Tampa Derby and San Felipe weren’t the only productive stakes on Saturday. In the 1 1/8-mile Private Terms Stakes at Laurel, the Pulpit colt MR. PALMER, trained by Bill Mott, circled the field seven wide and then mowed down his opposition, drawing off to a 3 1/2-length victory at the 9-5 favorite. It took Mr. Palmer six starts to break his maiden, but his performances and his Beyer figs have steadily climbed with each race and there is little doubt he is a colt on the rise. There were some pretty decent horses in the field of nine and he just ran right by them. Now we’ll just have to wait to see if Mott starts thinking Derby.

So, where is VERRAZANO going to run next?” That is the question all trainers desperately searching for points were asking. If you need to finish first or second in your final prep, do you really want to go up against this guy? Watch a mass exodus from the race in which he does show up. Pletcher mentioned the Florida Derby, Wood Memorial, and Arkansas Derby as possibilities, but is leaning heavily toward the Wood. Here are the questions facing him. Does he really want to run Verrazano against Shanghai Bobby in the Florida Derby when the latter still needs points to get in the Derby? Considering Pletcher normally likes four to five weeks between races, does he want to run Verrazano three weeks before the Kentucky Derby in the Arkansas Derby?

That leaves the Wood Memorial as the logical choice, which is why Pletcher is leaning in that direction. As of now, Pletcher could have Overanalyze going to the Sunland Park Derby. Remember, he could have at least Delhomme in the Arkansas Derby if he runs well in the Rebel, and Capo Bastone has been redirected to the Spiral Stakes. The four weeks between the Wood and the Derby would seem to be perfect, and even though there is always the weather to consider, it is just as likely to rain in Florida and Arkansas as it is in New York. So, just putting everything together, it would seem as if the Wood is the most logical race, Verrazano did grab a quarter when he stumbled slightly coming out of the gate, but it is very minor and is of no concern to Pletcher.

RYDILLUC, who I’m extremely high on, will now make his next start in the Blue Grass Stakes instead of the Spiral. I’m not crazy about having to rely on finishing one-two in a Keeneland Polytrack race with a large field, and then hope he handles the dirt on Derby Day, but if he’s as good as he’s looked in his last three races, who knows what he’s capable of.

GROUND TRANSPORT, who could be a real sleeper in the Louisiana Derby, breezed a bullet half-mile in 47 flat at Fair Grounds. UNCAPTURED continues to progress beautifully at the Ocala Training Center, breezing five furlongs in 1:00, following a :59 4/5 work the week before. Because of his physical setbacks he now is forced to take the Spiral – Blue Grass route. He’s run big on dirt and synthetic, so the surface should not be a problem. Speaking of the Spiral, CROP REPORT returned to the work tab with an easy half-mile breeze in :53 1/5. Eddie Plesa sent SPEAK LOGISTICS a half in :49 2/5. ALWAYS IN A TIZ worked a half in :48 3/5 with Calvin Borel aboard and with blinkers on for Saturday’s Rebel Stakes. Also working for the Rebel was TEXAS BLING, who went five-eighths in 1:01.

Looking forward to seeing Derby longshot special TREASURY BILL stretch out in the Rebel, but it’s going to be a tough assignment with such a large field and a number of talented horses. A first or second here and he will shoot right up the Top 12 list.

Derby Dozen - March 3, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

2013-03-05T00:10:00Z

Itsmyluckyday Eddie Plesa Jr.

Lawyer Ron—Viva la Slew, by Doneraile Court

Let’s face it, no one has really stamped himself as a bona fide Derby favorite. What prompted the switch this week was the impressive Swale score by Clearly Now, who had been trounced by 13 1/2 lengths by Itsmyluckyday in the Holy Bull. On a lesser scale were the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th place finishers behind Revolutionary in the Withers all finishing out of the money in the Gotham. Also, looking at the Thoro-Graph figures for the leading Derby contenders, Itsmyluckyday is by far the most consistently fast 3-year-old in the country, putting together back-to-back negative numbers. Not only didn’t he bounce off his monster figure in the Gulfstream Park Derby, he actually ran faster in the Holy Bull.

Revolutionary Todd Pletcher

War Pass—Runup the Colors, by A.P. Indy

No, he did nothing wrong. He only was relegated to the No. 2 spot because of the reasons mentioned above. We still think he’s a very talented colt with tremendous upside and is going to show big improvement wherever he runs next. It’s a very fine line between No. 1 and 2, and even No. 1 and 5, and any little factor can alter the placings. He did not receive a fast Thoro-Graph figure in the Withers, but certainly no one is going to hold that against him, considering what he had to overcome to win.

Orb Shug McGaughey

Malibu Moon—Lady Liberty, by Unbridled

For all the traditionalists looking for a horse to root for, the Janney--Phipps union goes back to when Stuart Janney Jr. bred his mare Shenanigans to the Phipps stallion Bold Ruler and got Laughter, the fourth dam of Orb. Two years later, Janney bred Shenanigans to the Phipps stallion Reviewer and got the legendary Ruffian. Perhaps now, that union between the two great racing families finally will result in a Kentucky Derby victory. With McGaughey, you know that if this colt shows up on the first Saturday in May, he is going to be extremely live. He had the biggest leap forward in his Thoro-Graph figs, running a number so much faster than he’s ever run before, it will be interesting to see how he handles that in his next start.

Vyjack Rudy Rodriguez

Into Mischief —Life Happened, by Stravinsky

Watching the horse that was charging down the stretch in the Gotham and blowing by horses with huge, powerful strides was one of the real eye-openers of the year. But the real eye-opener was discovering it was the speedy Vyjack, who had come from 10th in one of the most astounding turnarounds seen in a while. This is a horse who had never been worse than third and never more than two lengths off the pace at any point of race. Credit Rodriguez for doing a masterful job. We realize this gelding is inundated with sprinters in his pedigree, but he does have several stamina influences and is a half-brother to Prime Cut, who placed in the 1 1/8-mile Peter Pan and Curlin, so until he shows he has a limit, he has to be considered a major contender, especially with his new running style and never having been beaten. And, yes, he did mow down all the horses closest to Revolutionary in the Withers and was drawing away at the end.

Verrazano Todd Pletcher

More Than Ready—Enchanted Rock, by Giant’s Causeway

Breezed a half in :48 1/5 for his highly anticipated stakes debut in the Tampa Bay Derby, where he’ll be facing far superior horses than he’s faced in his first two starts, including several stakes winners who have shown they like the quirky Tampa Bay surface. So, this will be his biggest test and will help determine to what heights he can attain. A victory would be the turning point for some and a confirmation for those who already have him ranked at No. 1. By having only four starts, and none at 2, he would benefit from being tested at least at some point in the race. Romps in the park are fine for show, but you need to build your toughness to be ready for the Derby. He and Itsmyluckyday have the fastest single Thoro-Graph figure of the year, and we can’t wait to see where he takes that. As a side note, Gunderman, who he beat by 16 1/2 lengths, came back to win a 1 1/8-mile allowance race Saturday.

Shanghai Bobby Todd Pletcher

Harlan's Holiday—Steelin', by Orientate

From a pure speed standpoint over a period of time, he had the third fastest Thoro-Graph figure at 2 and has the third fastest figure at 3. He had a sharp tuneup this past weekend, breezing five furlongs in 1:00 4/5 and continues to progress toward the Florida Derby. Whether you consider him a Derby contender or not, there is no doubting his talent, class, and brilliance. Like with several other big names, we’ll just have to see how far they take him.

Flashback Bob Baffert

Tapit—Rhumb Line, by Mr. Greeley

Drilled a sharp five-eighths in a bullet :59 flat in company, as he gears up for the San Felipe. Not only was it the fastest of 63 works at the distance, the average five-furlong work was 1:01 3/5 and he came from several lengths back and actually had to squeeze his way between his stablemate and another worker, making this work a good learning experience. We’ll see if lives up to his trainer’s high praise when he squares off against Goldencents to determine who is the leading 3-year-old in California. Although one might think his speed figs are fast, they’re not even close to some of the others, at least not yet. In fact, his Robert Lewis number was the same as his maiden victory. Those figs no doubt will improve once he finds someone who can test him. What is important right now is that he not only runs a strong race in the San Felipe, but shows he can rate off the pace. Like Verrazano, there just isn’t enough body of work to form any concrete conclusions.

Goldencents Doug O'Neill

Into Mischief—Golden Works, by Banker's Gold

Worked six furlongs in 1:11 3/5. What else is new? He’s been working six furlongs like this regularly for the past two months. This last drill was particularly impressive, as he did it professionally, seemed more focused, and was striding out beautifully down the stretch. Strategy is going to play a big part in the San Felipe. Both his and Flashback’s connections had better hope there’s some pure speed in there (rabbit anyone?). This colt relaxed beautifully off the pace for the first time in the Sham and you don’t want to take a step backward in that regard. Dry Summer, who he beat by 17 lengths in the Sham, has come back to win his next two starts at Sunland, including the Mine That Bird Derby.

Oxbow D. Wayne Lukas

Awesome Again—Tizamazing, by Cee's Tizzy

Have watched the Risen Star way too many times, trying to decide what to do with it, and am still as clueless as watching it the first time. Are they all good as Beyers suggest? Are they all bad as logic suggests? Still believe this colt changed the entire fabric of the race by moving so early. Did everyone get too aggressive looking for points? You have give him a mulligan, losing so much ground on the first turn and engaging Code West and Proud Strike on the backstretch. Still believe he’s better than he showed, and if you feel the Risen Star was a regression from the Lecomte, it is important to note, he ran the same Thoro-Graph figure for both, and that number ranks as the fourth-fastest run by a 3-year-old this year.

Palace Malice Todd Pletcher

Curlin—Palace Rumor, by Royal Anthem

Still cannot emphasize enough how much we believe his lack of experience, especially at two turns, contributed to his coming up a half-length short in the Risen Star. In addition, he was in traffic down the backstretch and was farther back than he’s used to, had to go three-wide on both turns, and raced greenly in the stretch, drifting in an out and switching back to his left lead. If any horse should move forward in his next start it is him, as this race was an excellent learning experience.

Normandy Invasion Chad Brown

Tapit—Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor

For whatever it’s worth, the two horses who were noses apart in last year’s Remsen both finished fifth in their 3-year-old debuts. With his running style, he could be one of the horses hurt by the points system if he has a trip like he did in the Risen Star. Overanalyze just wasn’t good enough. He never got a chance to show his best. And the Wood Memorial promises to have a full field, so the colt’s connections will just have to hope he gets lucky or makes his own luck this time.

Super Ninety Nine Bob Baffert

Pulpit —Exogentic, by Unbridled’s Song

I originally dismissed him because Baffert said he was a miler, but the trainer admits the horse keeps surprising him. Studying his races and pedigree more closely, he could be a freaky type. Dam is a three-quarter sister to the ill-fated Beldame and Gazelle winner Exogenous, who was second in the Alabama and 12f CCA Oaks. Third dam is by Dancing Count, broodmare sire of Preakness and Belmont winner Hansel, out of War Exchange, who is the third dam of champions Curlin and Countess Diana. For such a heavy-bodied horse, you have to like the way he has re-broken turning for home since stretching out in distance. How far he’ll go is anyone’s guess, but we now have an open mind.

Knocking At The Door

TREASURY BILL, who was ranked No. 12 last week, still is right there, and we’d rank him at No. 13 this week. Surprisingly, the Thoro-Graph figure for the San Vicente came up slow; much slower in fact than we would have thought. But this horse should improve in leaps and bounds once he stretches out, and we still consider him a live Derby contender who will bust out in the Rebel.

If you’re looking for an intriguing horse who will be a total mystery going into the Derby, but could be something very special, keep a close eye on RYDILLUC, who was extremely impressive winning Sunday’s Palm Beach on the grass for Gary Contessa. With the new points system, that race doesn’t do anything to help get a horse into the Derby, and he will have to run big in his Polytrack debut in the Spiral Stakes and then try to pull an Animal Kingdom and use that race as a steppingstone to the Derby. It’s an unconventional and precarious way to try to make the Derby, and you would also have to overlook the colt’s only dirt start in his career debut when he was a handful in the paddock and threw in the towel after a half mile. Did he dislike the dirt or was he just mentally unprepared for his debut, which was a difficult task amyway, being at a flat-mile at Belmont?

But if you do throw that race out and take in all the other factors, what you have is a son of Medaglia d’Oro with an awful lot of dirt breeding in his pedigree, who, in his last three starts on grass has been as impressive as any horse we’ve seen over a three-race period, grass or no grass. There is something about this colt that makes you take notice. First off, he has an amazing stride that is not your normal stride, as his left leg reaches out so far and stays in the air so long, it seems for a split second both his front legs are leaping forward at the exact same time. Maybe it’s just an illusion, but that’s the way it looks on the replays. The way he kicks in turning for home and glides over the ground with that big extension reminds us of Big Brown in his maiden romp on grass.

Finally, his running style is that of a dirt horse, as he makes his move and charges to the front on the far turn, which is not the way your typical grass horse runs. While most horses who move that early on the grass usually pay the price in the stretch, he just keeps accelerating and pulls away from his competition with such ease, no one, not even a top-class horse like Charming Kitten, has gotten close to him. He’s also extremely athletic the way he cuts the corner turning for home and quickens on a dime. Even with the slow pace of the Palm Beach (how could it be that slow with the field strung out like it was?), his final three-eighths in :34 2/5 was spectacular.

If you like venturing into the unknown to try to find hidden gems, you’ll have a lot of fun with this guy. Maybe we’re completely off base and are getting a bit too carried away, and maybe he’ll despise Polytrack or even dirt and won’t even make the Derby, but, boy, this looks like a darn good horse. Oh, yes, his maternal great-grandsire is a horse named Quack, who just happened to equal the American record for of 1:58 1/5 for 1 1/4 miles as a 3-year-old against older horses in the Hollywood Gold Cup.

In the Gotham, WEST HILLS GIANT showed big improvement with blinkers added and looked like a winner until he was inhaled by Vyjack. In addition to the winner, the horse to watch coming out of this race is third-place finisher ELNAAWI, who was making only his third career start and was racing on Lasix for the first time. He had a troubled trip throughout, getting bumped around early and having to steady, tossing his head in the air. He then got caught wide on the first turn and raced six-wide down the backstretch. He still was able to make a five-wide sustained run around the far turn, fanning six-wide turning for home. He was stuck on his left lead in the stretch, and when Vyjack went by him, he came in on him, causing him to alter course just enough to switch leads. After drifting out, he came on again and closed determinedly to get the show. He should only improve off this race, which turned into an excellent learning experience, especially for such a lightly raced horse. He has as strong a pedigree as you’ll find, being by Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense and from a classic Darby Dan female family.

The fourth horse to stand out this past weekend was DEPARTING, who remained unbeaten with an impressive score in the Texas Heritage Stakes at Sam Houston. In all three of his races, the son of War Front has caught the eye with his smooth, effortless way of moving while drawing clear of his opponents each time. Scratched from the Risen Star because of a bad post, he showed up here and defeated a couple of nice horses in HOLIDAY MISCHIEF and the 8-5 favorite WORLDVENTURER. He came home each of his last two eighths in :12 1/5 under little or no urging, and his mile time of 1:37 4/5 was three-fifths faster than the mile time of the nine-furlong Maxxam Gold Cup for older horses, run later in the day. Because he’s been so impressive from a visual standpoint, Departing could be a sleeper in the Louisiana Derby, if that’s where trainer Al Stall runs him next.

WinStar’s GENERAL ELECTION, who looked good breaking his maiden first time out at Churchill Downs last year and then was crushed in a pair of allowance races at Fair Grounds, rebounded with a half-length score in the John Battaglia Memorial after going 8-wide at the head of the stretch. The son of Harlan’s Holiday had blinkers off after wearing them for one race.

At Oaklawn, the highly regarded TITLETOWN FIVE got caught up in a wicked battle for the lead with GET HAPPY MISTER in the six-furlong Gazebo Stakes (formerly the Mountain Valley). While the latter was done in, finishing last, Titletown Five held on gamely, but finally succumbed to the Steve Asmussen-trained KING HENNY.

The Mark Casse-trained GUNDERMAN flattered Verrazano by coming off a 16 1/2-length trouncing by the Pletcher colt to win a 1 1/8-mile allowance race at Gulfstream.

Bob Baffert has two talented colts who are treading a very thin line as far as making the Derby. POWER BROKER, who we had rated at #2 in our preliminary rankings, is now up to three-quarters in his works, and his :47 3/5 half-mile drill and 1:12 3/5 move on Sunday suggests he’s coming along beautifully. But because of all the time he lost, he likely will have only one race before the Derby, possibly the Wood Memorial. Baffert is not going to push him to make the race. The son of Pulpit would no doubt have to do something extraordinary to run on the first Saturday in May. Impressive maiden winner TIZ THE TRUTH has had a little foot issue, but he’s still on the Derby trail. The son of Tiznow also could be ready for the Wood Memorial, and he would have a better shot at running in the Derby with a big performance, having that one-mile maiden victory Feb. 2 under his belt. Baffert is confident he’ll have him fit. Another highly regarded Baffert 3-year-old, CURLY TOP, also has been battling foot issues.

The Rebel looks to be right in Todd Pletcher’s wheelhouse as a next stop for several of his latecomers, including DELHOMME and one-race maiden sprint winner PARK CITY. With SHANGHAI BOBBY pointing for the Florida Derby and PALACE MALICE a logical candidate for the Louisiana Derby, Pletcher will have to double up with his other contenders, either in the Wood Memorial, Florida Derby, Louisiana Derby or Arkansas Derby. Pletcher has lost five straight 3-year-old stakes with Violence, Palace Malice, Overanalyze, Forty Tales, and Charming Kitten, but one suffered a serious injury, one was in a sprint, and one was on grass. If you’re going to get beat, this is the time to do it while there is time to gear up for the big preps. Pletcher still has quite an arsenal lined up, beginning this weekend with Verrazano in the Tampa Bay Derby.

Derby Dozen (video) - February 26, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

2013-02-25T18:54:00Z

Revolutionary Todd Pletcher

War Pass—Runup the Colors, by A.P. Indy

What is most interesting about him is his ability to maintain a high fitness level from his gallops. In the 36 days between his maiden win and the Withers he had only one :48 half-mile breeze, 23 days after the maiden race and 13 days before the Withers. For him to run the race he did without a work in 13 days was pretty remarkable. He followed that same schedule, breezing a half in :48 2/5 Monday. His main attribute is his incredible female family, which traces back to the foundation of the Phipps family dynasty, all the way to Striking, and before her the great La Troienne, as well as major stamina influences Ribot, Herbager, Buckpasser, and Tom Rolfe, and a double dose of War Admiral. He has all the tools and the looks of a Derby horse, and we know he’s one tough colt, and hopefully his habit of finding trouble, whether at the start or in the stretch, is a thing of the past. He can’t afford that to happen in his final prep.

Itsmyluckyday Eddie Plesa Jr.

Lawyer Ron—Viva la Slew, by Doneraile Court

Returned to the work tab with a :48 4/5 half-mile breeze, out five furlongs in 1:01. To Plesa’s credit, he says if the colt fails to pick up enough points in the Florida Derby to assure a starting berth in the Derby, he will not run him again and will accept his fate and move on. You would think he’s done enough to qualify, with two impressive stakes victories, including a track record, but under the new points system, big races in January and early February will not get you in the Derby. And, as is the case with Shanghai Bobby and Revolutionary, you’re taking a major risk by sitting still for two months and passing up the 50-point races.

Orb Shug McGaughey

Malibu Moon—Lady Liberty, by Unbridled

As an old school traditionalist, it would be great for the sport to get McGaughey, Stuart Janney III, and the Phippses to the Derby with a big chance. Perhaps the Derby gods were waiting for this partnership to reward all involved. The pace of the Fountain of Youth did set up perfectly for him and he was getting six pounds from Violence. But to his credit, he was the only other horse who closed into that rapid third quarter, making a long sustained run and beating the third horse by 7 1/4 lengths, while earning a 97 Beyer. This was a major improvement off his last race when he ran a full second slower than Cerro in the other division. He still has a tendency to wait on horses once he gets the lead, just as he did in his previous start. This most likely was not a strong field other than Violence, so we’ll see if he keeps moving forward. The bottom line is he’s won three straight and is going in the right direction, and that’s more than you can say about anyone else. Female family is the same family as Ruffian and also includes the Big 3 from the 1964 crop -- Damascus, Dr. Fager, and In Reality.

Verrazano Todd Pletcher

More Than Ready—Enchanted Rock, by Giant’s Causeway

Breezed a bullet 5 furlongs in :59 1/5 Monday. Although there are question marks regarding his seasoning and whether he’ll be battle-tested enough to go 1 1/4 miles, I’ve decided to move him up because he’s the one horse, along with Flashback, who could be something very special. It’s that unknown factor that has him ranked this high. But he still needs to prove himself against better company and has a lot of cramming to do if he’s going to be a major threat on Derby Day. I also moved him up because there is no real standout, and he’s no more an enigma than that crazy Risen Star Stakes, in which the first eight horses finished within 3 1/2 lengths of each other.

Shanghai Bobby Todd Pletcher

Harlan's Holiday—Steelin', by Orientate

Yes, I know he can’t go a mile and a quarter, but I heard the same thing about Union Rags last year. Maybe he can’t. His female family certainly is not geared toward stamina, but going strictly on raw talent, he’s still accomplished more in his career than anyone else on the Derby trail and he did run huge in his 3-year-old debut. I know I lowered him a bit, but at this time of year, many horses get lowered as others start winning or running big in major races. Many are also tossing him because the BC Juvenile does not look like a strong race, but this colt peaked in the Champagne and probably should have called it a year and not traveled cross-country to run in the heat and get caught up in a brutal pace. Bad race or not, he deserves credit for fighting back, despite running out of gas turning for home. We’ll have a better idea how far he wants to go after the Florida Derby, for which he breezed a half in :49 3/5.

Flashback Bob Baffert

Tapit—Rhumb Line, by Mr. Greeley

I can pretty much echo the words I used for Verrazano. He hasn’t been quite as brilliant as the Pletcher colt, but he’s faced better competition. Again, the main concern is seasoning and toughness, and in his case, the two minor setbacks he had following his maiden victory. He has tremendous raw talent, and don’t expect to see him on the lead again unless there is a paceless race, as he’s a better horse stalking the pace. His owners, Gary and Mary West, also have two distance-loving sons of Lemon Drop Kid on the Derby trail in Treasury Bill and Code West, so they’re loaded. Like Verrazano, Flashback needs to get tested in battle by a good horse at some point, just so we’ll know what’s beneath all that brilliance. He tuned up for the San Felipe with a sharp six-furlong work in 1:11.

Overanalyze Todd Pletcher

Dixie Union—Unacloud, by Unaccounted For

If he wins the Gotham and catapults up near the top of everyone’s list, those 33-1 Future Wager odds are going to look mighty good. He tuned up for the race with a half-mile breeze in :48 3/5. It is important to note that Unlimited Budget, who romped in the Rachel Alexandra, won the Demoiselle in time two full seconds slower than Overanalyze in the Remsen. You have to love a horse who can win at 5 furlongs and 1 1/8 miles. The only concern with him is that he was beaten eight lengths in his only start at Churchill Downs as the 9-5 favorite, and there are horses who don’t handle Churchill. But he ran an odd race that day, so we’ll give him the benefit of the doubt.

Goldencents Doug O'Neill

Into Mischief—Golden Works, by Banker's Gold

This horse has to be setting a record for the most consecutive six-furlong works, his latest being a 1:10 2/5 hummer. Is this going to catch up to him or will he be like the proverbial tiger in a cage when he’s let loose in the San Felipe and help turn him into a professional racehorse? We’ve known all along the talent is there, but he just hasn’t blown anyone away, which could happen once he becomes more focused and learns how to level off in the stretch. Can’t wait to see what we get in the San Felipe. His future is limitless if he can get his act together. He’s another who could leap to the top with one big effort.

Oxbow D. Wayne Lukas

Awesome Again—Tizamazing, by Cee's Tizzy

Bet you never thought you’d still see this horse on here. I admit the Risen Star was a head-scratcher, and how do you choose one or two horses from the first five or six finishers? Well, the fact is, this colt was at least 5-wide going into the first turn, was wide down the backstretch, made an early move to engage Code West, and after taking the lead early, hung on gamely to be beaten a half-length, battling with horses on both sides of him. We may have learned more about him in this race than we did in his Lecomte laugher, in which he beat the Risen Star winner by over 13 lengths. He most assuredly will get the best or second best Thoro-Graph and Ragozin numbers in the race. He’s bred to run a lot farther, he’ll get a lot out of this race, and this is the time to take a chance on him.

Palace Malice Todd Pletcher

Curlin—Palace Rumor, by Royal Anthem

Of the first eight finishers of the Risen Star that finished 3 1/2 lengths apart, every one had multiple races at a mile or longer, while he had only three sprint races -- one in the past 6 months -- and is the one who has the most room for improvement. He was three-wide on both turns, was stuck in traffic the entire run down the backstretch, and raced greenly in the stretch, drifting in and out and jumping back to his left lead, but still kept battling to finish third, beaten a half-length. He looked like a winner at the sixteenth pole and might have won had he kept a straight course and also kept his head straight. Considering this was only his fourth career start and he was going two turns for the first time, and had to cope with that long Fair Grounds stretch, he ran a darn good race and definitely should learn a lot and move forward off this effort, especially with his strong pedigree.

Normandy Invasion Chad Brown

Tapit—Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor

He certainly didn’t help his chances in the Risen Star when he broke a step slowly and bobbled after possibly clipping Oxbow’s heels. He dropped way out of it, while rank into the first turn, and had to take the overland route on the far turn. He then was fanned 7-wide turning for home and was coming on in the final 100 yards. But I would have liked to see a little more from the quarter pole to the eighth pole, rather than late when the others appeared to be slowing down. I keep wondering, with his female family, if he wants to get that extra eighth of a mile. What I did like was the way he was striding out at the end, so let’s give him one more chance and hope for a better trip. The Wood Memorial would seem to be right up his alley. With hardly any points and only two preps this year, he had better make the most of his next start. Ironically, Brown sent him to Fair Grounds because of Gulfstream’s normally speed-favoring surface and as it turned out the Fountain of Youth would have set up perfectly for him.

Treasury Bill Ron Ellis

Lemon Drop Kid—Wow Me Free, by Menifee

It was a tough choice between him and Code West and Tiz the Truth. He’s still a live longshot special for the Derby and I can’t wait to see him stretch out in the Rebel Stakes. Like in the San Vicente, if he’s coming at the end and is right there, then it will set him up for a huge effort in the Arkansas Derby, where he’ll face Super Ninety Nine, who along with Flashback, Code West, Tiz the Truth, Den's Lrgacy,and Shakin It Up, could give Baffert a powerful quintet for the Kentucky Derby. Pletcher may have the bigger names right now, even without Violence, but Baffert’s 3-year-olds are on the rise, and several of them have very strong pedigrees. And we haven’t even mentioned Curly Top, another with tremendous promise.

Knocking At The Door

You could have chosen any one of several horses coming out of the Risen Star. You never like to see that many horses finish so close together in a big race, but it still got a 95 Beyer. The winner, 135-1 shot I’VE STRUCK A NERVE, ran lights out, but needs to show it one more time. His best previous effort was a second in the 6-furlong Sugar Bowl Stakes. All in all, this race was just too bizarre to figure out. CODE WEST looked like he was headed to a fourth-place finish at best and came on again late to be beaten a nose. Baffert had taken the blinkers off him, but it’s possible he may have lost a little focus turning for home after being challenged by Oxbow and didn’t start getting back into the race until the final 70 yards. What I liked most about his race was he probably was expected to take back farther off the pace with the blinkers removed, but, breaking from post 2, he wound up right on the pace and under pressure the entire way. The fact he was coming back at the finish bodes very well for a big improvement when the distances stretch out. It’s as if the light bulb went on in the final sixteenth. Normally I would have a horse like this in the Top 12, but there’s no way I can put four horses on there from the Risen Star.

Saturday’s Gotham will have several interesting horses on the verge of breaking out, headed by the undefeated VYJACK, along with a possible pair from Kiaran McLaughlin in maiden winners ELNAAWI and TRANSPARENT. Another intriguing possibility is Hutcheson winner HONORABLE DILLON, who should have no problem stretching out. He’ll go either here or wait for the Tampa Bay Derby.

FALLING SKY, who was scratched out of the Fountain of Youth, will now return to Tampa Bay for a rematch with DYNAMIC SKY in the Tampa Derby. All they can do is hope Verrazano isn’t crazy about the surface. Dynamic Sky indicated his sharpness with a bullet five-furlong work in 1:00 2/5.

Al Stall scratched both DEPARTING and SUNBEAN from the Risen Star due to outside posts. The latter showed up instead in the Gentilly Stakes for Louisiana-breds earlier on the card and won by almost five lengths at 9-5. One race later, the promising GROUND TRANSPORT blew away his rivals in the final eighth to win an allowance/optional claimer by three widening lengths for Mike Stidham and looked very good doing it, striding out beautifully at the wire. The son of Big Brown has two wins and a second in three career starts, his only defeat coming at the hands of Departing in his career debut sprinting. He's certainly a new face to keep an eye on.

Graham Motion finally unleashed Team Valor’s CROP REPORT in a 1 1/16-mile allowance/optional claimer on the turf and the son of Medaglia d’Oro, making his first start in the U.S., turned in a powerful closing kick to finish third after hitting the side of the gate at the start and dropping far off the pace. This is a grand-looking colt with a classic European look and a big, beautiful stride. The winner was the Rock Hard Ten colt BLACK ONYX, who was making his grass debut for Kelly Breen.

DRY SUMMER, a well-beaten fourth in the Sham Stakes behind Goldencents, made it two in a row at Sunland Park, winning the Mine That Bird Derby by 1 1/2 lengths as the 6-5 favorite.

Doug O’Neill found himself a Sunland Park Derby horse, winning the Turf Paradise Derby with PERSUASIVE PAUL, who drew off to a 3 3/4-length score. What’s interesting about this horse is that his broodmare sire is Lure, and that’s a name you don’t see too often in pedigrees.

UNCAPTURED followed his :35 3/5 work at the Ocala Training Center with a half-mile drill in :47 4/5, so he is progressing nicely for his 3-year-old debut, which could come in the Spiral Stakes. DEWEY SQUARE is looking to rebound from his dismal Holy Bull effort in Saturday’s Palm Beach on the grass. Trainer Dale Romans used this race last year for Dullahan’s 3-year-old debut.

Derby Dozen - February 19, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

2013-02-19T13:37:00Z

Violence Todd Pletcher

Medaglia d’Oro—Violent Beauty, by Gone West

Finally makes his 3-year-old debut in Fountain of Youth Stakes. Normally, a good second or third would be encouraging enough, but he has a big class edge, with only a few stakes horses entered, and he should win considering how revved up Pletcher’s horses have come out this year. He displayed his sharpness with a bullet 1:00 1/5 breeze Sunday working in company with Palace Malice.

Itsmyluckyday Eddie Plesa Jr.

Lawyer Ron—Viva la Slew, by Doneraile Court

Plesa said he’ll have his first work back on Friday. There’s still five weeks to the Florida Derby, so there’s plenty of time to get him ready. Those skipping the 50-pointers and going straight to the 100-pointers are going to feel like bridgejumpers. If you’re not 1st, 2nd, or 3rd, you better switch gears and start thinking about crabcakes.

Normandy Invasion Chad Brown

Tapit—Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor

No one can say he’s not sharp for his comeback in the Risen Star. He followed up his 1:00 2/5 work with a :47 4/5 breeze, the second-fastest of 74 half-mile works. The main concern could be the big field, with 14 in there. Closers not taking the overland route have a tendency to find trouble at Fair Grounds. We can see him picking off horses one by one on the turn and just circling the wagons at the head of the stretch. We’ll see if his mainly speed-oriented female family is exposed at all by that long stretch. One positive is that his tail-female family traces to Man o’War in the sixth generation through the distance-loving Fairy Manhurst, who had the somewhat dubious distinction of finishing second to Count Fleet in the Belmont Stakes…beaten 25 lengths.

Shanghai Bobby Todd Pletcher

Harlan's Holiday—Steelin', by Orientate

He had his first breeze since the Holy Bull, going an easy half in :49 3/5. Kind of torn as to what to look for from him in the Florida Derby. You don’t want to feel he has to win his final prep, yet you really don’t want him getting beat in both his starts this year, and to the same horse. That would start to raise questions about his chances in the Kentucky Derby, mainly is he as good as he was last year?

Revolutionary Todd Pletcher

War Pass—Runup the Colors, by A.P. Indy

He seems to be in limbo right now. If Pletcher is looking ahead to the Wood Memorial for Verrazano, then what do you do with this horse, who has never raced outside New York? You have to figure Pletcher horses are going to have to knock heads somewhere down the line. Pletcher is like the manager of an all-star team who has to keep juggling his players to make sure everyone gets in the game.

Verrazano Todd Pletcher

More Than Ready—Enchanted Rock, by Giant’s Causeway

He’s already chased Sam F. Davis winner Falling Sky out of the Tampa Bay Derby, and you have to wonder who is going to want to take on this monster. The only ray of hope appears to be the quirkiness of the Tampa Bay surface and memories of War Pass. He’s still inexperienced and untested. Turned in a nice :48 half-mile sharpener.

Flashback Bob Baffert

Tapit—Rhumb Line, by Mr. Greeley

The California version of Verrazano also is inexperienced and untested, but he at least has defeated top-class horses in a graded stakes. Horses like this are exciting to have around, but will they be able to get toughened and battle-tested enough to go 1 1/4 miles and win the Derby on sheer brilliance, like Big Brown?

Oxbow D. Wayne Lukas

Awesome Again—Tizamazing, by Cee's Tizzy

We know he looked spectacular in the Lecomte, winning by a pole, but the competition improves dramatically in the Risen Star, and that’s when we’ll find out for sure just how good this colt is. It’s also time to see what he can do rating off the pace. He is one horse who you know will run all day.

Goldencents Doug O'Neill

Into Mischief—Golden Works, by Banker's Gold

Continuing his string of six-furlong works, his latest being 1:13 2/5. He no doubt will be fit for his showdown with Flashback in the San Felipe, if that’s where they decide to go. Difficult to know what we’re dealing with. We know he’s immensely talented, but just want to see him level off a bit better and stay focused.

Overanalyze Todd Pletcher

Dixie Union—Unacloud, by Unaccounted For

Turned in a strong five-furlong breeze in 1:00 2/5 in company with Delhomme. He should come out running in the Gotham Stakes and could make those 33-1 Future Wager odds look mighty attractive. He’s already been 1 1/8 miles and already has prevailed in a dogfight. He just needs to maintain his form.

Treasury Bill Ron Ellis

Lemon Drop Kid—Wow Me Free, by Menifee

We said going into the San Vicente, if this colt can finish second or third and be closing, the sky’s the limit. With his pedigree, there is no way he should have been able to sprint with those horses. And we love the way he threw in a :22 second quarter to reach contention and still came home in :12 1/5 after going 6-wide. Ellis only put him in here because he had to work him anyway to start preparing for the Rebel and Arkansas Derby, so might as well run instead and get a good work in him. He got a lot more. This guy has stamina coming out of every pore and only inbreeding is to Buckpasser, which is as good as it gets.

Tiz the Truth Bob Baffert

Tiznow—Truly Blessed, by French Deputy

Consider this colt in a virtual tie for 12th with another Baffert colt, San Vicente winner Shakin It Up. We still love everything about Tiz the Truth, especially his smooth, fluid strides and high cruising speed. But Shakin It Up looked like the real deal and also is bred to keep going. Right now, it’s a toss-up.

Knocking At The Door

PALACE MALICE is stretching out to two turns next Saturday in the Risen Star Stakes (see this week’s Derby Trail blog) and we are expecting a huge effort and possible upset that would put him back in the Top 12, where he was in Week 1. He’s bred to go long, and even if he runs a good second or third and is coming at the end (like Treasury Bill in the San Vicente) it will be a big step forward toward a peak performance on Derby Day. He couldn’t be any sharper, coming off a bullet work in 1:00 1/5 in company with Violence.

Another potential live horse to watch this weekend is SPEAK LOGISTICS, who is from the same barn as Itsmyluckyday and who goes in the Fountain of Youth. Impressive winner of last year’s In Reality Division of the Florida Stallion Series, he was making what looked to be a winning move along the rail in the Sam F. Davis when Falling Sky closed the hole and forced him to take up, losing all momentum. He still ran on well to finish fourth. The spot of the incident and the lack of a good camera angle made it difficult for the stewards to take any action. And it is just supposition whether he would have gone on and won or not. But that move alone makes him an intriguing longshot in the Fountain of Youth. He did run in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but tired after pressing that fast early pace, yet still was beaten only 5 3/4 lengths.

Pretty soon, Oaklawn trainers are going to sign a petition to get Bob Baffert banned from running in stakes in Hot Springs. Once again, Baffert singlehandedly destroyed the locals’ Derby dreams, sending SUPER NINETY NINE there to win the Southwest Stakes by a mere 11 1/4 lengths, leaving the first three finishers of the Smarty Jones Stakes floundering far up the track in the slop. Like Secret Circle last year and The Factor the year before, Baffert has sent one of his swifter horses to Oaklawn to soften up the local horses for whoever he chooses to send there for the Arkansas Derby. Whether Super Ninety Nine actually turns out to be a Derby horse or not, Baffert has a number of classic-type horses he’ll be sending east in the next two months.

It's hard to know what to make of El Camino Real Derby winner DICE FLAVOR. He looked impressive down the stretch and finished with good energy, dominating this group. He just has to show he handles the dirt as well as the Tapeta and grass. But all in all, a very nice horse with a bright future.

There are several interesting up-and-comers running this weekend, and a big performance could put any one of them into Derby contention. They are PROUD STRIKE, CERRO, DEPARTING, MYLUTE, ELMUTAHID, MAJESTIC HUSSAR, SKY CAPTAIN, and ORB. One proven stakes horse looking to make his way back on the list is HE’S HAD ENOUGH, who likely will run in the Fountain of Youth (he also was entered in the Risen Star). Another to watch at Gulfstream is the aforementioned FALLING SKY (see same Derby Trail blog).

For down the road, keep an eye on GENERAL CHARLIE and FOOTBRIDGE, who staged a furious stretch duel in a Santa Anita maiden race, run a full second and two-fifths faster than the other division two races earlier. Both look like they could have a future.

Derby Dozen (video) - February 12, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

2013-02-11T19:07:00Z

Violence Todd Pletcher

Medaglia d’Oro—Violent Beauty, by Gone West

His schedule is pretty well mapped out, with the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby on tap. He’s a horse who not only wins, but knows how to win, always leaving something in the tank. Workouts progressing with a solid 1:01 breeze. FutureWager odds climbed from 9-1 to 13-1. If there is anyone who can knock some of these Pletcher powrhouses down to earth it is Pletcher himself. He has so many, pretty soon it’s going to be brother vs. brother and only the strongest will survive.

Itsmyluckyday Eddie Plesa Jr.

Lawyer Ron—Viva la Slew, by Doneraile Court

Some think he may be a Gulfstream horse, but he has won just as impressively at Calder, on a fast and sloppy track, and broke his maiden by at Monmouth Park. He has won five of his last six starts on dirt at three different racetracks at four different distances from five furlongs to 1 1/16 miles, and he’s won with four different jockeys aboard. His only defeat came over Delta Downs’ bullring track in the Delta Jackpot (gr. III). Plesa looks like the lone covered wagon surrounded by all these hostile Pletchers.

Shanghai Bobby Todd Pletcher

Harlan's Holiday—Steelin', by Orientate

He’s actually pretty far down on many Derby lists, especially with the emergence of new Pletcher dynamos and the low opinion people have of the BC Juvenile. But his body of work has been as impressive as any 2-year-old champ. Still, his Future Wager odds went from 8-1- to 11-1 to 14-1. He hasn’t worked since the Holy Bull. Hard to believe he still has only 24 points and has only the Florida Derby to accumulate enough points to secure a spot in the Derby field. Heck, Itsmyluckyday, with two big stakes wins this year, needs a big effort even more than he does.

Normandy Invasion Chad Brown

Tapit—Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor

Breezed five furlongs in a bullet 1:00 2/5 for much-anticipated debut, possibly in the Risen Star, where he would face runaway Lecomte winner Oxbow. Will we see that explosive move on the turn again? If he goes the full Fair Grounds route, we’ll get some indication whether or not he can sustain his run down a long stretch. He looked extremely enticing at 28-1 on Day 1 of the Future Wager, but closed at a more logical 15-1.

Revolutionary Todd Pletcher

War Pass—Runup the Colors, by A.P. Indy

Another whose odds climbed in the first Future Wager from 8-1 to 13-1, but he’s still co-second choice among individual horses. He’s been sent to Palm Meadows and most likely will return to New York for the Wood Memorial, where we’ll see if he’s as effective on the main track. Alpha took this route last year and came back to run a huge race in the Wood.

Verrazano Todd Pletcher

More Than Ready—Enchanted Rock, by Giant’s Causeway

Half-interest has been sold to Coolmore. Few horses have started their career so brilliantly, which is why he is the 11-1 individual favorite in the Future Wager, based on only two career starts and no stakes appearances. Question is, can he move forward off that monster allowance score? Tampa Bay Derby would seem to be the most logical spot, giving him the most time to bounce back from that race. But so far, Pletcher hasn’t committed to any particular race.

Flashback Bob Baffert

Tapit—Rhumb Line, by Mr. Greeley

Four-horse field in the Robert Lewis is indicative of the lack of depth in the 3-year-old division in Southern California. Other than Goldencents and a slew of other Baffert horses, there doesn’t seem to be much out there as of now. Of course that could change in the San Felipe. But as of now it looks as if the Flashback—Goldencents clash in the San Felipe will determine the kingpin of the California 3-year-olds.

Oxbow D. Wayne Lukas

Awesome Again—Tizamazing, by Cee's Tizzy

The more Lukas is around him and watches him train the more he loves him. He should get a sterner test in the Risen Star, and if he can score another impressive victory or be right there with Normandy Invasion, he has to be considered a major contender, especially with his pedigree. He could be a good Future Wager bet at 26-1, but did plummet from 52-1.

Goldencents Doug O'Neill

Into Mischief—Golden Works, by Banker's Gold

O’Neill following a similar pattern to the one used with I’ll Have Another, which is long, fast works. His last four drills have been 6 furlongs in 1:11 4/5, 1:10 1/5, 1:10 1/5, and 1:12 2/5. Just like the Fountain of Youth showdown, his bout with Flashback in the San Felipe is greatly anticipated. And there won’t be anyone fitter for that race.

Overanalyze Todd Pletcher

Dixie Union—Unacloud, by Unaccounted For

He, along with Delhomme and Capo Bastone, are the quiet ones who have gotten lost in the Pletcher parade of stars. How strong is the Todd Squad? Here is a Remsen winner at 33-1, while the third-place finishers in the BC Juvenile (Capo Bastone) and Remsen (Delhomme) are 58-1 and 55-1. Remember, it is often the quiet ones that turn out to be the most dangerous. The Gotham, run in Repoleville, looks like the most likely spot for his debut.

Tiz the Truth Bob Baffert

Tiznow—Truly Blessed, by French Deputy

He’s the kind of horse you’d love to take a chance on in the Future Wager, but as part of the 9-5 mutuel field it’s a total waste of time. Problem with the Future Wager is there is no first floor from which to start; the elevator goes right to the penthouse, leaving a potential find like him unbettable. But he sure isn’t the only lesser-known horse on some people’s radar screen who is a non-entity in the Future Wager.

Dynamic Sky Mark Casse

Sky Mesa—Murani, by Distorted Humor

I could have put any one of a dozen horses in this spot, but the Pletcher cutoff is five and the others look no better or worse than he does. Many Tampa Bay Derby winners lose one of the first two preps, so he deserves another chance. But it is imperative he starts showing a bit more professionalism, even with the blinkers. Resisted the temptation once again to return Palace Malice to the list, based on the Pletcher rule. Can’t get rid of the nagging feeling he could be the diamond in the rough among all those shiny, bright gems.

Knocking At The Door

A sneaky horse with Derby credentials hidden under a blanket of grass is BALANCE THE BOOKS, who breezed a half in :49 2/5. If he goes grass race and Blue Grass Stakes, I’ll keep away until he proves he can handle dirt. Putting all your eggs in one Polytrack basket isn’t for me. I still don’t trust Keeneland’s Polytrack and no trainer should either, if his horse has never been over it and it’s going to decide whether he gets in the Derby or not. If he’s another Animal Kingdom, so be it. But Animal Kingdom, by running in the Spiral, left himself enough time to get another prep in if he didn’t handle the surface. Now, if this colt goes a different route, with his breeding and closing punch, then I’m all over him.

If you like Oxbow, he may have competition in his own barn from TITLETOWN FIVE, an absolutely brilliant colt who is back working after suffering a chip in his knee last year. The son of Tiznow was beaten a neck by Violence in a seven-furlong maiden race at Saratoga before romping by nine lengths at Churchill Downs, earning a 98 Beyer. The runner-up, Bradester, came back to win his next two starts and the third-place finisher, Proud Strike, recently destroyed a maiden field at Fair Grounds by 7 1/2 lengths. In the Violence race, he finished a head in front of Orb, who has come back to win his next two starts. Watch out for this guy if he makes it back in time.

Chad Brown might have another good one in SAINT VIGEUR, who scored a game wire-to-wire maiden victory going 1 1/16 miles at Gulfstream with first-time blinkers. By Smart Strike, out of a Giant’s Causeway mare, he definitely is not lacking in pedigree.

DYNAMIC STRIKE, another Smart Strike, made it four-for-four for Dickie Small with a workmanlike score in the one-mile Miracle Wood Stakes at Laurel. Perhaps it’s time to try this colt outside Maryland.

Derby Dozen (video) - February 5, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

2013-02-05T02:55:00Z

Violence Todd Pletcher

Medaglia d’Oro—Violent Beauty, by Gone West

Resisting the temptation to replace him on top with one of the brilliant winners from this past weekend. Can’t forget the fact that he won his career debut in 1:22 4/5 at Spa and then won the Nashua in 1:35 1/5, so he’s pretty fast and classy himself. He’s up to 5 furlongs in his breezes. Also like the fact that he does just what he has to to win, while leaving himself plenty of room to move forward. So far, he seems like the most professional colt of the group and only needs to make the normal transition from 2 to 3.

Itsmyluckyday Eddie Plesa Jr.

Lawyer Ron—Viva la Slew, by Doneraile Court

Also see no reason why he should be lowered after sensational back-to-back stakes victories in very fast time. He’s 4-for-6 on dirt, he’s bred to go a distance, and he’s won at Gulfstream, Calder, and Monmouth over fast and sloppy surfaces, and stretching out from 5f to a mile and 70 yards. In fact, he’s starting to remind me a great deal of his sire, who also turned into a winning machine this time of the year by using his high cruising speed to overpower his opponents.

Shanghai Bobby Todd Pletcher

Harlan's Holiday—Steelin', by Orientate

Despite his stablemates’ monster efforts over the weekend, still cannot look past that 11 1/2-length gap to third in the Holy Bull. Yes, I’ve heard ad nauseam he can’t go 1 1/4 miles, and the BC Juvenile was a terrible race, but we hear that almost every year with the 2-year-old champ and how can you knock his wins in the Champagne and Hopeful? And you have to give him credit for traveling cross-country and winning the Juvenile off a monster effort in the Champagne. He’s way too talented to dismiss off one defeat, considering he broke the track record in that defeat, and is still the kingpin of the Pletcher barn until one of is mates proves otherwise. If he can’t go 1 1/4 miles, which is possible, we’ll know soon enough. I just wish he was going to have more than two starts. He’s got a lot to prove in that next start – no more going to the lead and needs to get a lot of foundation.

Normandy Invasion Chad Brown

Tapit—Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor

Still not sold on the Boston Harbor-Capote line on dam side and tail-female family getting him 1 1/4 miles, but if he returns and puts in the same explosive burst of speed he showed in the Remsen and can sustain it, you have to think he can stretch out another furlong with no problem. Nice 1:01 1/5 breeze Feb. 3. It’s imperative he doesn’t show any regression in his return. He just needs to demonstrate that big kick and keep coming in the final furlong.

Revolutionary Todd Pletcher

War Pass—Runup the Colors, by A.P. Indy

Well, you can’t say he wasn’t given a character builder in the Withers and didn’t emerge battle-tested from that nightmare trip. He proved you can leave ‘em gasping winning by a neck as much as winning by 16 lengths. Slow Beyer, but was in fourth and fifth gear waiting for room until the final sixteenth. Flew home in :05 4/5 and galloped out a pole ahead of the others. And remember, he missed his final work and went into the race not having worked in 13 days. Strong female family, and dam won the Alabama. Not worried about distance at all, but am worried a little about his tardiness coming out of the gate. It’s gotten him in trouble several times, but some of them he couldn’t help, as horses breaking next to him always seem to do something stupid.

Verrazano Todd Pletcher

More Than Ready—Enchanted Rock, by Giant’s Causeway

It could just be this is one freak of a horse, although the question is, where do you go after winning your second career start by 16 1/4 lengths in 1:34 4/5, earning a 105 Beyer and 104 Brisnet? Was it too much too soon? That is a monster effort for a lightly raced horse who didn’t debut until Jan. 1. Don’t like four career starts going into the Derby. Big Brown had 3, but all were distance races and he was a total freak in a poor year. And he debuted in August as a 2-year-old. Animal Kingdom had four preps, but they, too, were all at a mile or farther. Before that, the last horse to win the Derby with four starts was Exterminator in 1918. There is a big difference between four and five starts. And, of course, there is the Apollo curse, not having raced at 2, but in his case it was by only one day. So, is he special enough to overcome history? Some knock his sire’s ability to get a classic horse, but he does fit the recent Derby sire mold and this colt’s powerful female family certainly will carry him.

Flashback Bob Baffert

Tapit—Rhumb Line, by Mr. Greeley

He is another who will buck history with only four starts. He needs to be toughened up in his next race, as the Lewis was nothing more than a workout in a four-horse field. It is worth noting that he had a couple of setbacks after his first race and hadn’t run for two months, so he likely wasn’t at 100% for this race. He was carrying his head a bit high after turning for home, finally getting down and leveling off in the final sixteenth. That’s when he was most impressive. He, like Verrazano, has freakish qualities, but to what degree they will help him get 1 1/4 miles on first Saturday in May with so little racing experience remains to be seen.

Oxbow D. Wayne Lukas

Awesome Again—Tizamazing, by Cee's Tizzy

Let’s not forget what he did to the Lecomte field. Not the strongest group assembled, but he just totally outclassed and demolished them, and how can you not like an Awesome Again, out of a full-sister to Tiznow and Budroyale, and the dam of Paynter? Someone has to step forward in Louisiana and show there is life outside the Pletcher and Baffert barns, and right now he looks like the one until someone shows they can get even close to him. Keep an eye on up-and-comers Departing and Proud Strike. Lukas has had several pretenders on the Derby trail in recent years and tried hard to get them to the race, but it looks as if this colt has the ability to take him there all on his own.

Goldencents Doug O'Neill

Into Mischief—Golden Works, by Banker's Gold

Well, you can use the simple formula that he was hard-ridden to beat Den’s Legacy by 1 1/2 lengths in the Sham, and Den’s Legacy was beaten 6 1/4 lengths by Flashback. To be honest, I really have no idea how good this horse is other than the fact he can win anywhere at any distance and can beat you on the lead or just off the pace. But he also needs to show a little more professionalism, as he did pull a bit early in the Sham and needs to assert himself more in the stretch. Would like to see him settle a little better early. He showed in the Champagne the raw talent is there.

Overanalyze Todd Pletcher

Dixie Union—Unacloud, by Unaccounted For

Boy, where does he rank right now in the Pletcher barn? Forgotten horse, but he does have a solid 2-year-old foundation, with four graded stakes in five starts. He just has to put big efforts back-to-back. Fast enough to win going 5 furlongs in :57 2/5 and enough stamina to win going 1 1/8 miles, earning a 99 Beyer. He couldn’t have been gutsier fighting off Normandy Invasion in the Remsen. Sire was maligned last year as being stamina deficient, but silenced critics by getting the Belmont Stakes winner. Watch what an overlay he’s going to be in the first Future Wager.

Tiz the Truth Bob Baffert

Tiznow—Truly Blessed, by French Deputy

Say hello to this new face that got lost in the weekend shuffle. After his maiden victory, you can bet Gary Stevens is happy to be back in the saddle again. From a visual standpoint, he left an indelible impression, winning by 7 3/4 lengths going a mile, earning a higher Beyer (94) than Flashback. Love the way he moves and keeps himself low to the ground. Smooth, efficient stride and was really motoring in the stretch, quickly opening up on his opponents while coming home his final two eighths in :11 3/5 and :11 4/5. In addition to being by Tiznow, he is a half-brother to San Rafael and Risen Star winner and Florida Derby runner-up Notional. Third dam won the Alcibiades and was third in the Kentucky Oaks and is a daughter of Argentine-bred Sensitivo, who won the 2 1/4-mile Display Handicap and 1 5/8-mile Gallant Fox Handicap. Fourth dam is by Champion Stakes and Queen Elizabeth II Stakes winner Hafiz, out of a daughter of Count Fleet. Just like everything about this horse.

Dynamic Sky Mark Casse

Sky Mesa—Murani, by Distorted Humor

He is still racing greenly for a colt with his experience. He was late changing leads in the Sam Davis and then ducked in from a right-handed whip that seemed to cost him just enough momentum to get beat. Breaking from the outside post and getting hung wide on the first turn didn’t help. Still like the colt, and was encouraged by his late run after he finally got in his best stride, but really need to see a forward move -- mentally more than anything. He deserves another shot, and shouldn’t be overlooked in the Tampa Bay Derby.

Off the List

Of the horses dropped from the Top 12, I still have hope for HE’S HAD ENOUGH, considering he had to switch tactics in the four-horse Robert Lewis and wound up pressuring Flashback, which is not his style at all. He tried hard all the way to the quarter pole before finally backing up. Even when he was passed in the stretch by Den’s Legacy, he continued to battle back. He needs a big field with pace and he should show big improvement…Just because PALACE MALICE was dropped from the 12 spot doesn’t mean I like him any less. After a weekend with so many brilliant performances, you have to make room for new horses. Really looking forward to his next start and stretch-out to two turns. I’ve seen nothing about him I don’t like, other than he hasn’t been two turns yet.

Knocking At The Door

Baffert pair of stakes-placed SUPER NINETY NINE and maiden winner CODE WEST put themselves in the Derby picture by finishing one-two, respectively, in a mile allowance race at Santa Anita run in a snappy 1:35 flat. The winner (by Pulpit) was much the best, winning by 3 1/4 lengths, but the runner-up (by Lemon Drop Kid) should improve with longer distances and this race under his belt…Speaking of Lemon Drop Kid, I almost put his son TREASURY BILL in the Top 12, based on his sensational maiden victory, except for the fact he’s only had a pair of sprints and also would have only four career starts before the Derby. He looks more like a Belmont horse, but remember his name. With his pedigree he had no business running so well going 6 1/2 furlongs, in which he inhaled his opponents and drew away while under wraps. Wish he had one more start or at least been a mile already…From a visual standpoint, the Claiborne-Dilschneider colt DEPARTING was very impressive in his allowance score at Fair Grounds going a mile and 70 yards. Love the way he settled back in fourth after breaking sharply, cruised to the lead without urging and quickly drew off to win by 4 1/2 lengths under a hand ride. Efficient mover and just kept widening on the gallop-out. Pace was incredibly slow (1:15), so we’ll give him another race to see what we’re dealing with. Unlike most Claiborne-breds, he does not have an ideal pedigree for classic distances, with sprinter War Front on top and a number of sprinters in his female family, including a track-record holder at 4 1/2 furlongs. Traces to the Cal-bred sprinter Hempen. But Forty Niner and A.P. Indy in third generation should help.

At least two promising horses – HONORABLE DILLON and FORTY TALES – exited the 7-furlong Hutcheson Stakes, and there is no reason why they shouldn’t stretch out, especially the former, who prevailed by a half-length, despite racing greenly down the stretch and refusing to change leads…First-time starter BIG LUTE was impressive winning a six-furlong maiden race at Oaklawn by nearly five lengths in 1:10 2/5, but he’s probably one race behind as far as making the Derby. He’d have to be rushed to get there. Trying to squeeze in three more races is going to be tough...Doug O’Neill has another nice colt in GREELEY AWESOME, who made it three in a row with a half-length allowance score at Golden Gate. They crawled early in 1:14 3/5, but he did come home his final quarter in :23 2/5 over the Tapeta surface. Former claimer still has a long way to go to be considered a serious Derby horse...Other top performances to mention are ESCAPEFROMREALITY’S excellent second in the Withers, FALLING SKY’s victory in the Sam Davis in his first two-turn race and MY NAME IS MICHAEL’S late-closing third in the Sam Davis in his 3-year-old debut, MAC THE MAN’S wire-to-wire score in the 96Rock Stakes at Turfway, and DOHERTY’s maiden score going a mile at Gulfstream…With Tiz the Truth winning so impressively, watch out for DEMONIC, who beat him a head in his career debut. Son of Bernardini, however, is way behind. Working lights out and should be ready to run in about a week…It has been reported that UNCAPTURED had suffered a bruised foot and then an abscess on his other foot and is now almost ready to start breezing on the farm. He’s being pointed for a March debut. You never like it when plans have to get altered because of minor injuries, even with such a tough, seasoned horse as this. We have plenty of time to monitor his progress.

Derby Dozen (video) - January 29, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

2013-01-28T19:40:00Z

Violence Todd Pletcher

Medaglia d’Oro—Violent Beauty, by Gone West

Have to stick with him for the time being. Cannot find any flaws in his record, running style, attitude, and pedigree. He’s got it all, and until they beat him he has to be considered top dog. And he is a grand-looking colt. Fountain of Youth likely debut. Needs late start after going cross-country and winning CashCall Futurity on Dec. 15. Handles dirt and synthetic.

Itsmyluckyday Eddie Plesa Jr.

Lawyer Ron—Viva la Slew, by Doneraile Court

It’s is hard to escape the fact that he is, at this point, the fastest 3-year-old over a distance of ground after back-to-back monster efforts and speed figs in graded stakes. Track-record score in Holy Bull, with 11 1/2-length gap to third was brilliant. Good mixture of speed and stamina. Plesa one of the best-kept secrets in America; in good hands.

Shanghai Bobby Todd Pletcher

Harlan's Holiday—Steelin', by Orientate

He had everything against him in Holy Bull – forced to go to the lead from rail, pace pressure, fast fractions, first start of the year vs. seasoned colt coming off spectacular win in fast time, and he still broke the track record in defeat, finishing 11 1/2 lengths clear of third horse. Important thing is he proved he has moved forward at 3 after sensational 2-year-old campaign. Florida Derby will be his only start in 13 weeks leading up to Derby, but Barbaro and I’ll have Another have pulled that off.

Normandy Invasion Chad Brown

Tapit—Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor

A bit apprehensive about the Boston Harbor-Capote line on dam side and tail-female family tracing to British sprint champ, but he did display the most explosive burst of speed on the turn seen last year and showed the ability to sustain it. Beautiful moving colt, he did seem to hang a bit in the Remsen, but had every right to after that big move. He’s had four half-mile breezes and is right on schedule.

Revolutionary Todd Pletcher

War Pass—Runup the Colors, by A.P. Indy

This poor horse started his career with three of the most horrendous starts imaginable, as he was clobbered hard each time, dropping well back, yet still ran big. In his last, he finally had a clean break and demolished his foes by 8 1/2 lengths going a mile. Still goofs off with his lead changes in deep stretch, but has a world of ability. Of the three horses who beat him, one came back to win at Gulfstream and two placed in stakes. He’ll get all the stamina he needs from female family, which traces to major stamina influences Herbager and Tom Rolfe. Also, his dam won the Alabama. Saturday’s Withers likely next start.

Oxbow D. Wayne Lukas

Awesome Again—Tizamazing, by Cee's Tizzy

So, you’ve got a hot Hall of Fame trainer who has won four Derbys; a colt who won the Lecomte Stakes by 11 1/2 lengths and who has almost the identical breeding as Paynter (same sire, and dams are full sisters). Dam also is a full-sister to Tiznow and Budroyale. So, what’s not to like? He seems to be improving with each race and will run all day.

Goldencents Doug O'Neill

Into Mischief—Golden Works, by Banker's Gold

His sire is hot right now, although not one of the more well-known stallions, and his female family is loaded with sprinting influences. But this colt could have the talent to outrun his pedigree. Although his win in the Sham was more workmanlike, can’t help but marvel at his second in the Champagne when he came off only one 5 1/2-furlong maiden race, traveled cross-country, and finished second to undefeated Shanghai Bobby after setting all the pace, while being dogged all the way by the champ. Did like the way he rated for the first time in the Sham and he looked super in his :45 3/5 half-mile work between races Saturday, galloping out in 1:10 1/5.

Flashback Bob Baffert

Tapit—Rhumb Line, by Mr. Greeley

Yes, he looked very impressive breaking his maiden, but he did have a minor setback after that win and needs to squeeze three stakes in before the Derby. Also, he hasn’t been on dirt, but Baffert says this colt is “scary good,” and that’s reason enough to rank him this high. Appealing Tale, who he beat by 4 1/2 lengths, came back to win by 6 1/4 lengths. He runs Saturday in Robert Lewis, and could make huge strides with a victory or an impressive second. Not going to get a lot of stamina from broodmare sire, but tail-female family is dynamite.

He's Had Enough Doug O'Neill

Tapit—Amelia, by Dixieland Band

Until he runs again you have to throw out his three out-of-the-money finishes on synthetic and grass and just go by his remarkable second, beaten a head, in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, in which he overcame a horrendous trip to just miss catching the 2-year-old champ. His pedigree is strong on both ends. Third dam, Courtly Dee, is a granddaughter of War Admiral and produced major stakes winners Althea, Native Courier, Twining, and this colt’s second dam, Aquilegia.

Dynamic Sky Mark Casse

Sky Mesa—Murani, by Distorted Humor

Originally had him ranked #15 on preliminary Top 25, despite finishing sixth in the BC Juvenile in his dirt debut. But he had a nightmare trip and did very well to be beaten only 5 1/4 lengths. Dropped back to 7f and had blinkers added in Pasco Stakes and overcame trouble to win by 3/4. He’s been highly regarded from the time he was a baby and he should only keep getting better. In five starts, he’s never run in anything but stakes.

Overanalyze Todd Pletcher

Dixie Union—Unacloud, by Unaccounted For

Have no feeling for him one way or the other, because he’s always followed up a win with a disappointing effort. But he was impressive coming off a dull third in the Iroquois, scoring a gutsy victory in the Remsen. Been burned many times latching on to a Remsen winner, only to have them get hurt or lose their form at 3. At 1 1/8 miles, it just seems to dull a horse. Encouraged to see him turn in a sharp half in :47 4/5 on Sunday, second fastest work of 43.

Palace Malice Todd Pletcher

Curlin—Palace Rumor, by Royal Anthem

Yes, he is Todd Pletcher’s fifth horse in the Top 12, but Pletcher is just loaded with runners, including brilliant maiden winner Verrazano. This colt looked very impressive breaking his maiden last year, then came off a 5 1/2-month layoff to finish a strong second to the swift Majestic Hussar in a 7-furlong allowance. Love the way he leveled off late and the way he galloped out. Really believe we’re going to see something when he stretches out to two turns. Plenty of stamina top and bottom. What a farewell present he would be for Cot Campbell.

Knocking At The Door

One undefeated horse getting little respect is grade II Jerome winner Vyjack, another son of Into Mischielf, who, in his first two starts, easily handled top-class colts Clawback, Always in a Tiz, and Orb, all of whom came back with big efforts. Although there is a lot of speed in his pedigree, he shows all the signs of a horse who wants to go on. He's already run a 96 Beyer, so he's certainly fast enough to compete with anyone. If you’re looking for a well-bred colt making rapid improvement, look no farther than Darley’s Bernardini colt Transparent, who overcame a total wipeout on the backstretch and still drew off to a 5 3/4-length score at Aqueduct. One horse who really captured our attention was Santa Anita maiden winner Treasury Bill, who rallied from the clouds, was fanned 6-wide, and came barreling down the stretch like the proverbial freight train to win going away, while under wraps the whole way. Bred for stamina and can’t wait to see him stretch out to two turns. Definitely one to keep a close eye on. A pair of 1 1/8-mile allowance races at Gulfstream Saturday were won by Italian import Cerro, for the Team Valor-Graham Motion team, and the Shug McGaughey-trained Orb, who has now won two in a row and is on the improve. Verrazano was as impressive as any maiden winner I saw this year, but he missed escaping the wrath of Apollo by one day, debuting on Jan. 1, and he is by More Than Ready, so stamina might be a question. But his half-brother, El Padrino, was a class horse on the Derby trail last year. If you’re wondering where Uncaptured is after being ranked #7 in Top 25, the Kentucky Jockey Club form took a major beating in the Holy Bull, with runner-up Frac Daddy and fast-closing third Dewey Square getting beat a combined 45 lengths. But more important, Uncaptured still hasn’t worked this year. And how about #2-ranked Power Broker? Baffert said he’s a lightly built colt who is just now getting back in light training, so he has a long way to go.

Derby Dozen (video) - April 30, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

2012-04-30T17:01:00Z

Creative Cause Mike Harrington

Giant's Causeway—Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer

Makes no sense to displace him from the top spot now. He was full of energy coming off the van and on the track April 29. The bottom line is that he’s as consistent as they come and has never been beaten more than a length.

Union Rags Michael Matz

Dixie Union—Tempo, by Gone West

Had to move him up after his superb work. He may not be ranked No. 1, but he is THE horse and is ready to run the race of his life. Although he worked a half, he was credited with 5f, and it was still the 3rd fastest of 53 works on the tab.

Dullahan Dale Romans

Even the Score—Mining My Own, by Smart Strike

I still like this colt a lot, but using works as a gauge, Union Rags stood out, while Dullahan just had a maintenance drill, coming home in :251⁄5 and galloping out an extra eighth in :143⁄5. He’s still the main stretch danger with that huge kick.

I'll Have Another Doug O’Neill

Flower Alley – Arch’s Gal Edith, by Arch

I feel better about him after seeing him come off the van. His coat was resplendent after a long plane ride, and he was full of himself walking the shed, trying to buck on occasion. He needs to be farther off the pace than he’s been.

Bodemeister Bob Baffert

Empire Maker—Untouched Talent, by Storm Cat

Loved his final work, especially the way he broke five lengths behind Jemima’s Pearl, eased up to her and finished fast with the rider high up in the saddle. His gallop-out was awesome. We have no idea how good this horse is.

Gemologist Todd Pletcher

Tiznow—Crystal Shard, by Mr. Prospector

He’s not inundated with early speed, so don’t be surprised to see him back farther off the pace than he has been, much like Super Saver in 2010. There’s little separating him from the top three. He’s tough, he’s versatile, and he’s undefeated.

Hansen Mike Maker

Tapit—Stormy Sunday, by Sir Cat

He had a nice settling work, and if he can translate that to the race, he’ll be in good shape. He obviously has question marks as far as tactics, but none when it comes to talent. Just wondering how much the Toyota Blue Grass S. (gr. I) helped him.

Alpha Kiaran McLaughlin

Bernardini—Munnaya, by Nijinsky

He was my overlay special and looked like a live wager at a generous price. He worked great, but instead of having two works at Churchill as planned, he’s had only one work at Belmont. Don’t like that big a change but still like the colt.

Take Charge Indy Pat Byrne

A.P. Indy – Take Charge Lady, by Dehere

Would have loved to see him work at Churchill, but we’ll just have to go strictly by handicapping unless his gallops at Churchill are extraordinary. He will be forgotten, even with Borel, but do not count him out.

Daddy Nose Best Steve Asmussen

Scat Daddy—Follow Your Bliss, by Thunder Gulch

He’s got to be the Derby “house” horse; will go into the race with four works over the track. There’s no doubt he’s improving at the right time. He’s one of those horses that I love looking at, whether grazing or galloping. Tons of class.

El Padrino Todd Pletcher

Pulpit—Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway

Yes, he could be a sucker play, but if you go by his Beyers and Thoro-Graph figures, he’s a horse you don’t want to ignore and then realize too late he was a smart play. Speed figs give him a legitimate shot. Worked very slowly in final drill.

Went the Day Well Graham Motion

Proud Citizen—Tiz Maie’s Day, by Tiznow

This is a virtual tie with Sabercat. His unknown factor might give him a better shot to win it, because we don’t know just how much upside there is to him. But Sabercat has a good 2-year-old foundation and has proved his class. Toss-up.

Derby Dozen (video) - April 23, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

2012-04-23T18:52:00Z

Creative Cause Mike Harrington

Giant's Causeway—Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer

His road to the Derby started off well enough, but it’s had an odd look to it recently. It’s like watching a marathon runner approaching the finish line in good shape and right on time, but he’s doing somersaults and pirouettes. He’s getting the job done, but not doing it in the conventional manner. We all know that he’s done a bit of meandering in the stretch since his Norfolk win, due in my opinion to the use of the whip. But I can do is trust Rosario, one of the best riders in the country, to give him a good ride in the Derby. He’s also had an unexpected late equipment change, getting blinkers off in his final prep, something you rarely or never see a Derby winner do. And he did it after a victory no less, which makes it even more unusual. Then he worked with cheater blinkers, and it started to look like an inspired move, with the idea being to prevent him from getting too sharp in the Santa Anita Derby and possibly peaking a race too early, and then returning to the blinkers for the Derby. He had earned a huge “0” Thoro-Graph figure in the San Felipe, then bounced to a “4” with the blinkers off. That’s a pretty significant bounce, but after running such a big number in the San Felipe, the SA Derby became more of a bridge to the Ky. Derby, and all you wanted him to do was get across it. As it turns out he’ll be racing without blinkers again in the Derby, which leads me to believe Harrington is now concentrating more on the 1 ¼ miles and possibly passing horses a little quicker. He was farther back last time than he’s ever been, made a quicker move than he’s ever made, and in general ran more like a Derby horse than he did in his previous races. So, although this isn’t your typical way of training up to the Derby, Harrington appears to have a master plan and isn’t afraid to step out of the box. Then again, it’s quite possible I have no idea what I’m talking about.

Dullahan Dale Romans

Even the Score—Mining My Own, by Smart Strike

In a year like this, especially, who can pinpoint just why you have a horse ranked where he is? The only thing consistent about the decision-making is confusion. I understand the reasons to like this colt and understand the reasons not to like him. Yes, the dirt is still a question mark, in spite of how he trains over it. The fact is, he’s winless over it. You can look at the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile as a “glass is half full” performance or a “glass is half empty” performance. I just happen to like everything about this horse, and have since last fall, and feel his BC Juvenile provided sufficient enough evidence to conclude that he likes the dirt just fine. His half-brother was a synthetic horse at 2, but won the Kentucky Derby, so I’m not going to concern myself with that. I think he’s the most explosive closer in the field and is athletic enough to overcome most traffic problems. I also can’t help but feel Dale Romans is sitting on a Derby victory. Yes, it would have been ideal to see him have another dirt race just to get a better gauge as to how well he handles it, but Churchill has been very kind to grass/synthetic horses, and it certainly didn’t prevent horses like Animal Kingdom and Paddy O’Prado from running big in the Derby.

Union Rags Michael Matz

Dixie Union—Tempo, by Gone West

I had an epiphany. If the Derby gods are going to be smiling down on anyone, it’s the Union Rags--Phyllis Wyeth story, which is movie script material and the subject of an outstanding online documentary that made the Derby result seem crystal clear. Any doubts were removed following Union Rags’ workout Friday. I’ve been saying all along that I believe Matz left gallons of fuel in the tank going into the Florida Derby and that the colt was not even close to being wound tight for the race, coming off only three very slow breezes following an easy score in the Fountain of Youth. Since then he’s had half-mile works in :48 2/5 and most recently :47 2/5, with a final eighth in :11 3/5, out another eighth in :12 3/5, pulling up 6f in 1:15. Between his strong gallop to the pole, the work itself, and the strong gallop-out, he was motoring at a fast clip for a mile and a quarter. I had hoped to see him turn in faster, more serious works after the Florida Derby and he’s doing just that. He’ll have a stronger work next week and that should have him peaking on Derby Day. His Beyers have been stuck in the mid-90s, but I believe that’s due to the fact that since the Champagne he’s had an extremely wide trip in the BC Juvenile, drifting out badly at a crucial point in the stretch; a ridiculously easy victory in the Fountain of Youth; and a troubled trip in the Florida Derby, in which he was stuck in traffic most of the way and only was able to run full out for the final three-sixteenths. So he really hasn’t had an opportunity to post a big speed figure. It sounds like I’m describing my No. 1 horse, and I was very tempted to move him up to the top, but couldn’t get my feet out of the quicksand. Maybe that will change in the next two weeks.

I'll Have Another Doug O’Neill

Flower Alley – Arch’s Gal Edith, by Arch

He regressed almost 2 points on Thoro-Graph in the Santa Anita Derby, but with an 8-week layoff between races, it’s hard to call it a bounce. There’s no reason why he won’t improve and run another big number in the Derby, as he did in the Lewis. As I’ve been saying, I don’t think we’ve seen the best of this horse. If there is any question mark it’s whether or not he has enough of a foundation under him. Fortunately, his stretch duel with Creative Cause helped in that regard and got him battle-tested. As for his modest 94 Beyer figure, I don’t think anyone questions his and Creative Cause’s speed. And it is my opinion that California tends to get lower Beyers anyway. I’ll Have Another made a big jump to run a 96 in the Lewis in his first start in five months. It’s hard to believe he doesn’t have a faster number than that in him with the Santa Anita Derby under his belt. His main strength is his tactical speed and ability to carry it a long way. Following his pattern of long works, O’Neill breezed him 6 furlongs in 1:13 3/5 at Hollywood and will ship to Churchill on April 28 with Creative Cause, so both should have their final work at Churchill. This may sound insignificant, but the fact is that 18 of the last 20 Derby winners had at least one work over the track. That is not a coincidence.

Bodemeister Bob Baffert

Empire Maker—Untouched Talent, by Storm Cat

Like the majority of Baffert’s Derby horses, he’ll have two works at Churchill Downs, and I wouldn’t expect we’ll be seeing any blazing drills, coming off that monster performance at Oaklawn Park. Despite his speed and the fact that he won the Arkansas Derby on the front end, he has the ability to settle on or just off the lead, and we could very well be seeing a cat and mouse game between him and Hansen, as they likely will be sitting behind the sprinter Trinniberg. His main strength is his ability to maintain a brisk pace early and still come home fast, which makes him all the more dangerous. He’s the only Derby horse to have earned a negative Thoro-Graph number, so you always have to be wary of the bounce if you use that tool, especially with him being so lightly raced. But unlike most lightly raced horses with no 2-year-old races, he had nearly 30 works before his first start, so it’s not like there’s no foundation at all. He is a lot fitter than one would think for a horse with only four career starts. Baffert said he was just immature and he didn’t want to run him at Del Mar, so he gave him time, and he’s really matured over the last three months. And remember, he has a pedigree that is geared toward stamina, so all in all, he’s quite an interesting and lively package.

Gemologist Todd Pletcher

Tiznow—Crystal Shard, by Mr. Prospector

Drilled five furlongs in 1:00 4/5 in company at Palm Meadows, where Pletcher has the place almost all to himself. You can put him at No. 1 or No. 6, there is so little separating each horse. I just can’t displace the others I’ve already had ahead of him. His Thoro-Graph pattern is strong and he probably still has more improvement in him. If there is a question surrounding him it’s whether or not he got enough out of his two races this year. He had to dig in to defeat Alpha in the Wood Memorial, which he needed, but he did loaf a bit in the stretch, throwing his ears around. And his first start was pretty much a stroll in the park in a small field. Even though he’s 2-for-2 at Churchill Downs it still would have been nice to see him work over the track. But he doesn’t ship in until the Tuesday of Derby week.

Alpha Kiaran McLaughlin

Bernardini—Munnaya, by Nijinsky

As I said last week, he was my main overlay bet, and I was starting to get a good feeling about him. But his schedule has been altered a bit too much because of an infection to his leg to feel as confident as I did before. He was scheduled to van to Kentucky the Monday after the Wood and have two works at Churchill Downs – loved it. But because of the infection, he now will have only one work at Belmont and fly to Kentucky on Monday of Derby week. That is a major change in plans, with the bottom line being he’s going to have only one work in four weeks, and it’s not going to be at Churchill. Remember that stat I mentioned above. On top of that, McLaughlin was quoted as saying “He’s not out of the woods yet.” And at this time he still doesn’t have a jockey. Ramon Dominguez, who is winless since returning from injury, no doubt is waiting to see what happens with Alpha before committing to him or Hansen. Dr. Hansen believes he’s going to stick with his horse. Alpha supposedly is doing fine and is looking forward to getting back to serious training. If this colt can pull off the Derby, he most certainly will have earned it, with all the uncertainties, setbacks, and changes in plans over the past few months. I still think he can be a major factor if things start going right for him.

Hansen Mike Maker

Tapit—Stormy Sunday, by Sir Cat

The addition of Trinniberg to the Derby field should actually help him, as it should force him to take back and try to settle off the pace. The Blue Grass, while an excellent effort, was not the kind of prep you want to see right before the Derby. It was fine for a race like the Haskell, but it is imperative that this colt settles in the Derby, preferably off the pace, as so few horses have won the Derby on the front end. And the ones who have, established a clear lead throughout the race, and in most cases there wasn’t a lot of other speed in there. If he establishes a clear lead with Trinniberg and Bodemeister and a few others in there, it means he’s going too fast. He still has to be regarded as a leading contender because of his exceptional brilliance and natural ability. I just wish the Blue Grass had provided a better learning experience for him and got him in the habit of taking back naturally. I feel he has the temperament to rate off the pace with no problem, but horses are creatures of habit, and the more times he goes to the front, the more he’s going to think that’s where he’s supposed to be.

Take Charge Indy Pat Byrne

A.P. Indy – Take Charge Lady, by Dehere

Everyone seems to be lumping him in with the possible pace horses in the Derby, as if that has been his m.o. throughout his career. The Florida Derby was the first time he’s ever been anywhere near the lead except for his career debut. He set the pace at Gulfstream because it was handed to him on the proverbial silver platter, and he certainly made the most of it. This is a sneaky horse who is going to go off at much higher odds than he should. His speed figures are nothing to rave about, but like a few of the others, I don’t believe we’ve anything close to his best. We do know he has an explosive move on the turn, as evidenced by his first start of the year against El Padrino and his Arlington-Washington Futurity. He ran a sneaky-good race in the BC Juvenile, and with his pedigree, has developed into a much better horse. He is another I wish would have had his final work at Churchill, but he at least had a bullet work over the track before last year’s Breeders’ Cup. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t make a big threatening move on the turn from at least a half-dozen lengths back. It’s just a question whether he’s good enough. But he will make his presence felt.

El Padrino Todd Pletcher

Pulpit—Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway

I’m surprised at the number of people who simply don’t like this horse and never have, even when he was ranked in the top 3 by most of the experts. I believe the reason is that he’s not flashy and doesn’t blow you away with his brilliance. He is perceived as one of those unexciting, one-paced horses who just grinds his way to the finish, doing only what he has to to get the job done. But the truth is, he is one of only two horses, along with Bodemeister, to have run a triple-digit Beyer and followed it up with a figure of as high as 98. That alone makes him a legitimately fast horse. Whatever excuse or excuses you want to give him for his Florida Derby effort, he did run the exact same Thoro-Graph number he did in his first two starts; a number that despite his “dull” performance, was faster than Take Charge Indy’s and Union Rags.’ As for individual races, only Bodemeister, Creative Cause, Hansen, and I’ll Have Another have run faster, and the last three (Bodemeister’s was in his last start) all regressed off those efforts. He has run fast three times in a row and hasn’t regressed yet; not even a quarter of a point. And that’s with one of those races being the worst performance of his career. And if the track should come up sloppy, he broke his maiden by 12 ¾ lengths in a quagmire and blew right by Take Charge Indy on a “good” track at Gulfstream. Perhaps this horse has a better shot than people think. He’s another I’d love to have higher, and he just may start climbing as the race gets closer.

Daddy Nose Best Steve Asmussen

Scat Daddy—Follow Your Bliss, by Thunder Gulch

I cannot recall any year when a horse like this was No. 11. You just don’t know what to do with these live price horses. If you’re not content with single-digit odds, then the bottom half of this list is the way to go. It’s like buying all of Book 2 at Keeneland and stacking them up two years later against Book 1. If this horse is a big price on Derby Day I will certainly be putting a few bucks on him. But there has been a buzz around him; at least there was before all the formful grade I preps. Now I’m not so sure he won’t be a good price. He has improved dramatically this year, but in lesser races, and he hasn’t beaten anything of note. And he’ll be coming into the Derby off a six-week layoff and only two starts this year. With that said, he’s been at Churchill for a while and is training brilliantly with three works already, and has more bottom than anyone in the race, with eight races at a mile or longer. And if you want to go back far enough he did finish four lengths ahead of Dullahan in a 5 ½-furlong maiden race on the dirt at Churchill Downs, for whatever that’s worth.

Went the Day Well Graham Motion

Proud Citizen—Tiz Maie’s Day, by Tiznow

It’s so close for the final three spots, and it’s tough leaving Sabercat, one of my early picks, off the list. But I just feel Went the Day Well is a bit more win-ready, following a similar path as American Kingdom. He is on a good pattern, speed-wise, making a good jump forward in the Spiral Stakes and is going into the Derby off the same six weeks as Animal Kingdom. I don’t like that long a layoff, but you can’t argue with what worked for Team Valor last year. I also like the fact that this colt has a European training and racing foundation under him, running in 11- and 14-horse fields, carrying 126 and 129 pounds, and finishing close seconds at one-mile and a mile and 70-yards. And he has the pedigree to go long and a very smooth and efficient stride. So, all in all, he’s pretty solid for a longshot, and he has the potent John Velazquez – Graham Motion team going for him. Not bad for No. 12.

Derby Dozen (video) - April 16, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

2012-04-16T21:01:00Z

Creative Cause Mike Harrington

Giant's Causeway—Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer

If you were impressed with Dullahan and Bodemeister, he’s the only horse to have finished in front of both of them. With the top end such a toss-up, it’s difficult dropping him at this point after having him on top for so long, especially with question marks surrounding the others. Harrington had the blinkers removed for his final prep, but who knows if the change helped or not. Although you hate to see an equipment change so close to the Derby it does show he’s pretty consistent with or without blinkers and still is right there in every race. The feeling here is that he’s right where he’s supposed to be, despite the late equipment change. I still believe the whip has been the culprit in his meandering stretch runs. Whenever he’s been hand-ridden he’s run as straight as the proverbial arrow. Love that he’s had three preps, especially a seven-furlong sharpener, and has gotten any “bounce” out of the way, although the SA Derby was a bigger bounce than you’d like to see right before the Derby. But he does have a “0” on Thoro-Graph to fall back on, and with his stamina, high cruising speed, ability to sustain his run, and grind ‘em into the ground style of running he should relish the 1 ¼ miles.

Dullahan Dale Romans

Even the Score—Mining My Own, by Smart Strike

I’ve been waiting to put this guy high up for quite a while and had rocketed him up to No. 5 off his second in the Palm Beach. He just needed a performance like the Blue Grass to prove he can beat top-class horses and do it impressively. The opinion here is that no horse has moved forward more dramatically from 2 to 3. He’s grown up physically and mentally, and for a big horse is unusually athletic and light on his feet. He can accelerate quickly, yet he can sustain his run a long way and doesn’t mind negotiating his way through traffic. He resembles his half-brother Mine That Bird as much as Laurel resembles Hardy. But what they do have in common is their ability to explode from the back of the pack. Poly or no Poly, he did come home in :23 3/5 and :11 3/5. The only loose end is having only that one dirt effort since last July with which to evaluate him. But his BC Juvenile was good enough to remain confident. And he does have the best money rider in the country.

Union Rags Michael Matz

Dixie Union—Tempo, by Gone West

Call this a three-way photo for No. 1. I’ve been so tempted to put him in the top spot since the Florida Derby, and after Saturday’s monster performances he could wind up a huge overlay in the Derby. If he gets to Kentucky and trains like Barbaro, he could easily move to the top. There are some who have concerns about his ability to get the 1 ¼ miles and feel he should have had more punch in the Florida Derby, despite being given a lot to do. It’s true he didn’t have his usual push-button response when he was asked at the three-eighths pole, but I still believe he was nowhere near 100 percent sharp and tight for the race, having only one easy victory in nearly five months and only three slow breezes (:50 2/5, 1:04 1/5, and :49) between the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby. If I had this horse and felt he was far superior to the others, I might be inclined to think or hope he could win the Florida Derby on sheer talent, while making sure he wasn’t fully cranked for the race and risk having him peak a race too early. You can tell he was fresh and ready to roll by the way Leparoux was pulling back on the reins while being boxed in on the rail. I believe he didn’t accelerate nearing the quarter pole because they went that quarter in a brisk :23 4/5 and he had a wall of horses directly in front of him. He still managed to close his final three-eighths in :36 flat. We know he possesses that Derby-winning move on the far turn and there’s no reason to think he won’t be ready to fire off his biggest shot on May 5.

I'll Have Another Doug O’Neill

Flower Alley – Arch’s Gal Edith, by Arch

The philosophy behind his preparation is totally different than that of Creative Cause. He avoided the “bounce” by waiting 8 weeks between races after his “1 ¼” in the Lewis, but bounced anyway, and now has 4 weeks to the Kentucky Derby. Which will prove to be the better strategy we’ll have to wait and see, because we really don’t know how good this horse is and how much upside he still has. We may only be seeing the tip of the iceberg with him. We know he’s fast and he’s battle-tested, and now it’s just a matter of how he recovers from the Santa Anita Derby with only a limited 2-year-old and 3-year-old foundation under him. There is little doubt this is an extremely talented horse to have done what he’s done in his two starts this year. You won’t find a more class- and stamina-oriented female family (American and European), with names like Arch, Kris S, Pleasant Colony, Roberto, Caucasus, Hail to Reason, Princequillo, Alydar, His Majesty, Stage Door Johnny, Nijinsky, and Sea-Bird. And add male influences Sadler’s Wells, Tom Rolfe, Northern Dancer, Vaguely Noble, and Lyphard, as well as inbreeding to Mr. Prospector and Danzig, and a bit more removed, Ribot. I cannot recall ever seeing such a loaded pedigree and Who’s Who of European greats.

Bodemeister Bob Baffert

Empire Maker—Untouched Talent, by Storm Cat

As the final day of Passover concluded, a plague was unleashed on the unsuspecting participants of the Arkansas Derby that destroyed everything in its path. That plague came in the form of a flashy bay named Bodemeister, which begs the question: why is this horse different from all other horses? To be honest, no one seems to know. He appeared innocently enough in a maiden race as second fiddle to another Baffert colt and had jaws dropping with his other worldly performance. Two races later he did it again in the grade I Arkansas Derby. It is encouraging and unusual to see a horse turn in such a brilliant performance and show so much speed with the blinkers off. The only concern now is that he has to come back in three weeks after earning a whopping 108 Beyer figure , so you have to wonder how this race will affect him, especially being so lightly raced and with no 2-year-old foundation. There are two ways to look at this phenom. It’s possible he is improving so rapidly he’s already climbing toward superstardom. You don’t see many frontrunners coming home their last eighth in :11 4/5 (he’s done it in his both his wins) and running a full second and a fifth faster than the nation’s top older horses the race before. Add to the fact he has stamina screaming from both sides of his pedigree. On the other hand, the Arkansas Derby was far from the strongest field, and he will have to contend with some brilliant pace horses in the Derby. He may be favored in the Derby, but being a pure speed horse is what’s keeping him at No. 5. Yet I can see him pulling a War Emblem or Spend a Buck. I just know this colt looks to be something special and is getting scary good.

Gemologist Todd Pletcher

Tiznow—Crystal Shard, by Mr. Prospector

I am well aware this colt is ranked too low, but I’m committed to others at this point, and there is little separating him and the top 3. You have to respect any horse who has never lost, is still improving, and can beat you in many different ways. And, yes, he’s by one of my all-time favorites, Tiznow, whom he resembled in the Wood Memorial, the way he dug in and fought back. One of my problems with him is that, like El Padrino and Take Charge Indy, he won’t even be seen on the track until the Wednesday before the Derby. To him it shouldn’t matter much, as he’s 2-for 2 at Churchill, but strictly from a personal standpoint, I’d like to see more of a horse as he prepares for the Derby. He did loaf a bit after taking the lead in the Wood, but that should not be an issue in the Derby, where I doubt he’ll be in a position to loaf. One thing that won’t be lacking in the stretch is competition. In short, he’s going to be very dangerous, and although I’d love to have him higher up, I’ll have to be content keeping him here, at least for the time being.

Alpha Kiaran McLaughlin

Bernardini—Munnaya, by Nijinsky

Ok, I’m looking at the odds on Derby Day, trying to find an overlay who actually has a good shot to win and will pay a big price in this wide-open betting pool. My guess is that this is the horse that jumps off the board. So I might as well put a few bucks aside right now. McLaughlin, Godolphin, (Dominguez or whatever big-name rider they get), Bernardini, and this improving, stretch-running colt will make a formidable team. He certainly can be excused for coming up a little short in the final yards of the Wood, considering he clipped heels on the first turn, had to check pretty sharply, and came back with some lacerations. And on top of that was coming off an eight-week layoff and going up against a talented and undefeated colt in Gemologist. His race actually fits the pattern of past preps where the Derby winner was second in his final prep – Super Saver couldn’t get by longshot Line of David in the Arkansas Derby; Street Sense couldn’t outgame Dominican in the Blue Grass; Funny Cide was outgamed by Empire Maker in the Wood Memorial; Monarchos couldn’t catch Congaree in the Wood; Real Quiet couldn’t catch Indian Charlie in the SA Derby; Silver Charm was outgamed by Free House in the SA Derby; Grindstone couldn’t get past Zarb’s Magic in the Arkansas Derby; Go For Gin couldn’t catch Irgun in the Wood; and Lil E. Tee couldn’t get by Pine Bluff in the Arkansas Derby. The list goes on, so he’s in good company.

Hansen Mike Maker

Tapit—Stormy Sunday, by Sir Cat

I actually was all prepared to rank him higher until Bodemeister turned in his monster performance and added a major obstacle for him. I was hoping to see him rate off the pace again, but the lead was there for the taking. Considering all the craziness that went on at the barn that day, having to get his tail dyed and then un-dyed, who knows if the distractions affected him at all. I thought he ran a terrific race, and the biggest irony of all is that the horse who dogged him and prevented him from getting a breather on the far turn was his own stablemate. History shows if you’re going to try to win the Derby on the lead, this isn’t the way to go about it. In the past 40 years, what did wire-to-wire Derby winners Riva Ridge, Bold Forbes, Seattle Slew, Spend a Buck, Winning Colors, and War Emblem have in common? They all won their previous start, and won by daylight. In order to win the Derby on the engine you have to have shown dominance in your previous start, the way Bodemeister did. But in the end, I must say I have even more admiration for the colt than I did before. I just want to see a return to the running style he showed in the Gotham. After the Derby he can go back to his hell bent for leather style.

Take Charge Indy Pat Byrne

A.P. Indy – Take Charge Lady, by Dehere

He won’t get away with a Florida Derby scenario again, not with Hansen and Bodemeister in there, so it’s time to concentrate on settling back off the pace again, something he’s never had any problem with. Unfortunately, we won’t get to see him either until the Wednesday before the Derby when he ships in with the Pletcher pair. One thing is for sure: with the turn of events these past two weeks, you can count on him being the forgotten horse, especially for a Florida Derby winner. What he has going for him is that we likely have not seen the best of him, and there’s really no telling how good he is. He has all the tools, and the pedigree, and the jockey, so he is another who could be an intriguing exotics play at a big price.

El Padrino Todd Pletcher

Pulpit—Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway

And now for the mother of forgotten horses. Pletcher or no Pletcher, he has been swallowed up in the recent grade I feeding frenzy, and his one-time luster has faded. But the truth is, he actually received the same Thoro-Graph figure as Union Rags in the Florida Derby and a faster number than the winner, running basically the same strong fig in all three starts this year, so he’s more live than people might think. But first he has to get in the race, and is going to need some help. It has been well established that Castellano didn’t do him any favors by concentrating too long on Union Rags, looking over his shoulder for him on several occasions. He then parked El Padrino wide on the far turn and had to fan 5-wide at the top of the stretch. He likely will high-tail it over to Gemologist, leaving the mount open on this colt, who at one time looked to be Pletcher’s main Derby hope – post Algorithms and pre Gemologist. In short, don’t ignore him based strictly on the Florida Derby. This is as laid back a colt has you’ll ever see, and who knows, maybe he just got bored hangin’ out with Union Rags away from the real action.

Daddy Nose Best Steve Asmussen

Scat Daddy—Follow Your Bliss, by Thunder Gulch

He had a pretty big bandwagon starting to fill up before last weekend’s action, and there’s no reason why anyone should jump off now. It was kind of odd to see Mike Smith commit to him before riding Bodemeister, but he quickly jumped on to the Baffert colt after the Arkansas Derby. No problem. His new jockey, Garrett Gomez, will be riding a vastly improved horse with the right running style and the right trainer. So if you were looking to hop aboard his bandwagon before Saturday, nothing has changed as far as he’s concerned. He will be going into the Derby off a six-week layoff, so we’ll see how hard Asmussen trains him. That’s normally not his style. But I love the fact he's been at Churchiil and already has had two works, including a bullet five furlongs in 1:00 1/5, with a strong gallop-out. He is one I will be following closely once I get to Kentucky. I can feel the vibes already.

Sabercat Steve Asmussen

Bluegrass Cat—Miner's Blessing, by Forty Niner

Although I believe Went the Day Well, whom he replaced in the final spot, has a better shot of actually winning the Derby, I had this colt at No. 5 on my first Dozen list and it was good to see him bounce back to some sense of credibility. I couldn’t desert him now. His Arkansas Derby third was a good step forward, and with his 2-year-old form and foundation, it put him in position to possibly pick up a piece of it in the Derby. There were several signs in the Rebel that pointed to a comeback effort, and while he didn’t threaten the winner, he did finish a neck behind Secret Circle for second, making up six lengths on the Baffert colt from the Rebel finish. Every indication is that he’s ready to take another move forward.

Knocking At The Door

13 Went the Day Well Graham Motion

Proud Citizen—Tiz Maie’s Day, by Tiznow

Consider him virtually in a tie for the No. 12 spot. With a six-week layoff between the Spiral and the Derby, it is understandable if he falls through the cracks. But after the way Animal Kingdom trained over the Churchill surface last year, you can be sure people will be watching him closely in the mornings.

14 Mark Valeski Larry Jones

Proud Citizen—Pocho’s Dream Girl, by Fortunate Prospect

He is another who has faded from the spotlight following his defeat to mega-longshot Hero of Order in the Louisiana Derby. But he did throw a shoe before the race, and he ran hard throughout. He’s still a very good horse. We just have to wait and see if he’s ready for the Derby.

15 Rousing Sermon Jerry Hollendorfer

Lucky Pulpit—Rousing Again, by Awesome Again

He redeemed himself with a fast-closing third in the Louisiana Derby following two subpar efforts at Santa Anita. He does have a big closing kick, as he demonstrated in the CashCall Futurity and Real Quiet Stakes at Hollywood. He could make some noise at a monster price.

16 Done Talking Hamilton Smith

Broken Vow—Dixie Talking, by Dixieland Band

They may have crawled in the Illinois Derby, but he at least wiped out the only blot on his record, the Gotham Stakes, by returning to the form that saw him finish a fast-closing fourth in the Remsen Stakes. On paper, he’s not fast enough, but he’ll win his share of stakes this year.

17 Daddy Long Legs Aidan O'Brien

Scat Daddy—Dreamy Maiden, by Meadowlake

His victory in the UAE Derby in his 3-year-old debut was impressive, but it’s still hard to get past that dreadful performance in last year’s BC Juvenile in his only dirt appearance. He’s the only horse to have won farther than 1 1/8 miles.

18 Secret Circle Bob Baffert

Eddington—Ragtime Hope, by Dixieland Band

You certainly have to admire him. He tries hard every race and always gives his all. He may have finally hit his wall at the eighth pole of the Arkansas Derby, but still managed to finish second, giving him five wins and two seconds in seven career starts.

19 Prospective Mark Casse

Malibu Moon—Spirited Away, by Awesome Again

I’m not going to get too down him for his sixth in the Blue Grass Stakes. Although he was two-for-two over the Woodbine Polytrack, he’s become a solid dirt horse and may not have cared for the Keeneland Poly. He did win the Tampa Bay Derby, but the Tampa form this year was pretty suspect. He does have talent and is honest, so you know he’ll give his all.

20 Liaison Bob Baffert

Indian Charlie—Galloping Gal, by Victory Gallop

He may be the most disappointing of all the 3-year-olds, never coming close to duplicating his 2-year-old form and taking a step backwards in the Santa Anita Derby. Perhaps he just didn’t like Santa Anita, so Baffert will train him at Churchill and see how does.

Derby Dozen (video) - April 9, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

2012-04-09T22:07:00Z

Creative Cause Mike Harrington

Giant's Causeway—Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer

Boy, this is getting tough. Separating the top 6 horses is splitting hairs. They all deserve to be up there. His race in the SA Derby was just what he needed to set him up for a peak performance on the first Saturday in May. There’s certainly no reason to lower him after all this time on top. Blinkers off in the final Derby prep was a bit of a concern; never like equipment changes this close to the big race, but he handled it well and was very professional, and you had to love the way he battled back, much like Silver Charm in the ’97 SA Derby. He’s lost three of his last four starts, because of his inability to quicken. He doesn’t have a big turn of foot and just grinds it out, so he’ll need some help from the mile and a quarter, where the constant pressure he applies could wear his opponents out. He’s certainly not a solid No. 1, and I’ll have to give the top contenders a closer analysis once the final preps are run.

Union Rags Michael Matz

Dixie Union—Tempo, by Gone West

Some may drop him a notch or two after the big efforts by the Wood and SA Derby 1-2 finishers, but, traffic problems aside, I still believe that with only three slow breezes he was nowhere near fully cranked in the Florida Derby and that the real Union Rags will emerge on Derby Day. It’s only an opinion, but it looks to me as if Matz went into the race hoping the colt could win off those three breezes, but did not want to risk him peaking a race too soon, coming off that easy Fountain of Youth score. I would expect to see several serious works leading up to the Derby, unlike the Florida Derby. So far, this colt’s pattern is to have his races won by the eighth pole. The two times he hasn’t he failed to catch the leader inside the final sixteenth, and we all know the Derby is won before the eighth pole. Leparoux just has to be more aggressive with him and use his big turn of foot on the far turn. Some question his ability to get 10 furlongs, but he sure runs like a horse who will have no trouble stretching out that far.

I'll Have Another Doug O’Neill

Flower Alley – Arch’s Gal Edith, by Arch

I had him at No. 4 before the SA Derby, and as good as Gemologist and Alpha looked in the Wood I see no reason why they should pass him after his gutsy and brilliant victory over my No. 1 rated horse. And he did it off a two-month layoff and coming home his final three-eighths in a sharp :36 1/5. From all appearances back at the barn and the following morning, the race didn’t take that much out of him. I’ve maintained all along that we don’t know how good this horse really is, but I think we’re starting to find out. There’s no reason why he can’t improve off this race. Some may question using an unknown jockey who recently arrived from Hastings Park without an agent, but Mario Gutierrez has ridden him perfectly and is as cool as the horse. He reminds me of Stewart Elliott on Smarty Jones and Jeremy Rose on Afleet Alex. They, like Gutierrez, had too much confidence in their horse and in themselves to give in to the pressure. And congrats to O’Neill, who gave this horse four long, stiff works; something most trainers would be afraid to do. It’s nice to see some old-fashioned training once in a while, and its benefits.

Gemologist Todd Pletcher

Tiznow—Crystal Shard, by Mr. Prospector

One thing about him, he always finds a way to win, and you had to like the fact that he overcame getting bumped 5-wide on the first turn and steadying slightly when The Lumber Man cut in front of him, and then was 6-wide down the backstretch and 3-4 wide on the far turn. His Beyers have increased with every race (75, 81, 85, 95, and 98). There are several logical reasons to like his Wood Memorial win, but perhaps one that’s not quite as logical that I found impressive was the colt throwing his ears straight up right before the wire, despite being under pressure from Alpha, as if he knew he had it won. I just like a horse who knows where the wire is and what he has to do to get there first. When Castellano switched to a left-handed whip, Gemologist came out several paths and was able to engage Alpha just when it appeared as if the Godolphin colt was going to catch him. I saw a lot of Tiznow in him, and how about him out-battling a Godolphin colt to the wire, 11 years after his sire did the same thing to a Godolphin colt (Sakhee) in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. I admit this colt probably should be ranked No. 1 or 2 or at the worst No. 3, but I need some time to ingest everything we’ve seen in the past two weeks.

Hansen Mike Maker

Tapit—Stormy Sunday, by Sir Cat

With Alpha breathing down his neck for the No. 5 spot, he gets his chance to move up, stay where he is, or move down in the Blue Grass Stakes. It all depends, not only on whether he wins, but how he does it. If he’s going to pull a Union Rags or a Creative Cause and lose his final prep, he better look awfully good in the process. It’s always difficult getting a good line on a horse when he preps for the Derby on Polytrack. In short, he needs to settle off the pace, as he did in the Gotham, put away some very talented horses, and come home impressively. We’ll also see how he stretches out an extra sixteenth of a mile.

Alpha Kiaran McLaughlin

Bernardini—Munnaya, by Nijinsky

I was very tempted to put him No. 5, but decided to wait until Hansen runs in order to get a clearer picture. Coming off a two month layoff, he overcame a bad trip, having to check sharply on the first turn, and still closed fast, falling a neck short. But the key to his race may have come at the three-eighths pole when Ramon Dominguez went to a single left-handed whip to try to keep pace with Gemologist, then hit him again at the five-sixteenths pole. I never like to see a horse under the whip that early, as it usually means the jockey is not feeling the response he wants. But was it the horse or was it Dominguez, who was just returning from a collarbone injury and had only two losing mounts the day before in his return to the saddle? Was his strength at 100 percent or close to it in only his second mount on the card? Did Alpha hang a bit in the final yards after appearing as if he was going to catch Gemologist or was Dominguez starting to feel the effects of his three-week layoff and rushing to get back for this race? Or did Alpha need this race, run over a slow, tiring track after his two-month layoff? Or was it just a case of Gemologist simply out-gaming him? I have no answers; I’m just tossing around some questions to ponder. Whatever the answers are, the bottom line is that Alpha should get a lot out of this race and go into the Derby a fit and dangerous horse.

Take Charge Indy Pat Byrne

A.P. Indy – Take Charge Lady, by Dehere

The tendency is to chalk his Florida Derby win up to the slow pace and his ability to take advantage of it and pretty much steal the race. But let’s remember, he’s not a front-runner and his versatility should be commended that he was able to adapt to the scenario that was presented. Byrne and the owners decided to go with a two-prep schedule instead of their original three-prep schedule at the last minute, so they still have a pretty fresh horse. We’ll just have to wait and see how much he’s gotten out of his two starts. There is no doubting this colt’s talent, and he has the pedigree to go along with it. Whether he’s good enough to win the Derby is anyone’s guess, but there’s no reason to think he’s not right up there with the best of them.

El Padrino Todd Pletcher

Pulpit—Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway

Pletcher and the owners decided to go by body of work rather than just one race in regard to running in the Derby. After all, he was only beaten 3 ½ lengths and according to Trakus, ran 63 feet farther than the winner. Also, in the past 20 years, four horses have won the Derby after finishing fourth in their final prep, and all were totally ignored at Churchill – Mine That Bird ($103.20), Giacomo ($102.60), Thunder Gulch ($51), and Sea Hero ($27.80). If you liked El Padrino before the Florida Derby and dumped him after that race, you’re not going to be too happy if he bounces back and takes home the roses. Don’t get me wrong, he was flat at Gulfstream and should have run better, even with the loss of ground, but his race was very reminiscent of Thunder Gulch’s in the Blue Grass when he came up flat in the stretch as the 6-5 favorite after winning the Florida Derby and Fountain of Youth. Off days do happen. And for an off day this one really wasn’t that bad, and he did run hard enough to get something out of the race.

Bodemeister Bob Baffert

Empire Maker—Untouched Talent, by Storm Cat

Giving him the nod over Dullahan only because he has the opportunity to break into the upper echelon with a big victory. But he needs that victory, while Dullahan’s connections can be happy with another good second, especially to Hansen. Bodemeister might very well have pulled off the SA Derby, considering his longshot stablemate put quite a scare in I’ll Have Another and Creative Cause and was beaten a mere half-length. Instead, he has to travel to Hot Springs and compete over a new track against what promises to be a large field. And he has to beat another of his stablemates, Secret Circle. If he runs back to his San Felipe, there is no reason why he can’t get the job done and head to Louisville as a hot commodity, despite having only four career starts.

Dullahan Dale Romans

Even the Score—Mining My Own, by Smart Strike

Love him or hate him, he should have no excuses in the Blue Grass Stakes, having won the Breeders’ Futurity over this track and coming off a terrific 3-year-old debut, in which he was a strong second to Howe Great in the Palm Beach on grass. Regardless of what he does in the Blue Grass there still will be questions surrounding him, especially because he has only his fourth-place finish in the BC Juvenile to go by on the dirt. I feel he showed enough in the Juvenile to convince me that dirt and Churchill Downs will not be an issue. I can just picture him picking up horses with that big move and huge stride of his and motoring down the stretch. He’s still as intriguing a future book horse as there is, and looks to be a bargain in the final Future Wager pool.

Daddy Nose Best Steve Asmussen

Scat Daddy—Follow Your Bliss, by Thunder Gulch

As the big guns run well in their major preps, he fades a bit in the minds of horseplayers. But I still like this colt, and his Derby odds are climbing steadily with every race the others run. I just love the way he’s progressing, and he showed a lot in his two stakes victories this year, even though it was against moderate competition. I like the way this horse looks and acts and his determination in the stretch. He’s certainly not going to back down from a fight. Like Dullahan, I would definitely play him in the future book and hope for a killing. There’s a lot to like about him.

Went the Day Well Graham Motion

Proud Citizen—Tiz Maie’s Day, by Tiznow

He’s another who will be forgotten because his final Derby prep was six weeks out from the big race and people just don’t know much about him. This is a much stronger group than the one Animal Kingdom beat last year. But he’s a beautiful moving horse who is improving with every start; he has the pedigree to get the distance; and he has no problem shrugging off traffic, as he showed in the Spiral when he had horses all around him and it didn’t faze him in the slightest. He also has finished first or second on dirt, grass, and synthetic, so he’s pretty adaptable.

Derby Dozen (video) - April 2, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

2012-04-02T23:00:00Z

Creative Cause Mike Harrington

Giant's Causeway—Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer

Worked six furlongs in 1:12 4/5 and seems to have maintained his energy level, despite two tough races and a series of fast works, including three bullet drills. He just needs a good competitive effort in the Santa Anita Derby and to keep that energy level high without gutting himself or peaking a race too soon. His Thoro-Graph figs went from a 4 ¼ in the San Vicente to a “0” in the San Felipe, so a slight regression certainly is possible, and for the sake of the Derby it definitely wouldn’t hurt. Of course, he could “bounce” and still win, as long as he doesn’t do anything too dramatic. He’s on the right course where he is. Also, would like to see him return to his professional races last year when he was left alone and allowed to do his thing without the whip.

Union Rags Michael Matz

Dixie Union—Tempo, by Gone West

Certainly no reason to panic. Remember, his goal is to peak in the Derby, not establish himself as a superstar now. He had several things go against him and he still ran a good enough race keep his place in the Derby rankings. Leparoux was down on himself and got a bit defensive on Twitter, but he didn’t know going into the first turn the pace was going to be that slow, and he had Reveron outrun him from the outside and cut in front of him, as El Padrino kept him pinned in. After that, he was in a mess of a traffic jam, with Leparoux back in the saddle and pulling on him through three-quarters in 1:12 (the other four stakes were run in 1:10 2/5, 1:10 2/5, 1:10 3/5, and 1:10 4/5). Also, he threw a shoe before the race, which likely didn’t affect him, but still is a needless concern. And take note that his three works before the race were :50 3/5, 1:04 1/5, and :49 breezing, coming off one easy victory in five months. He leveled off beautifully in the final yards and was closing the gap, while pulling away from El Padrino at the wire, so there is plenty to build off of from this race. If you’re a Beyer pundit, only concern is his failure to improve his figs since last summer, being stuck in the low- to mid-90s. Big long-striding colt, he’s more effective with a clear, outside run; just didn’t quicken when El Padrino finally left him and had no escape route as they kept closing up. Important thing is that he got a lot out of the race, and he should move forward and peak on Derby Day.

Hansen Mike Maker

Tapit—Stormy Sunday, by Sir Cat

Turned in a sharp five-furlong drill in :59 4/5, final eighth in :12 2/5, out in 1:14 3/5. He should get a good test in the Blue Grass Stakes, as that race is filling up fast. He still has to show again that he can rate behind horses and close. That would eliminate any doubts that still may exist about his ability to relax going a mile and a quarter. The key is relaxing and coming home fast. He’ll be facing an eclectic group of grass, synthetic, and dirt horses from across the country, so we should have a better idea how much he’s improved and matured and how comfortable he is in his new running style.

I'll Have Another Doug O’Neill

Flower Alley – Arch’s Gal Edith, by Arch

Continued his string of long works, going seven furlongs in 1:26. His previous works have been seven furlongs in 1:26 1/5, a mile in 1:42 3/5, and six furlongs between races in 1:10 flat. Interesting to see old-school training these days. Charlie Whittingham and Allen Jerkens would be proud. By skipping the San Felipe and having only two preps this year, he most likely needed a string of lung-opening works like these to keep his fitness level high and put some bottom into him. He gets his big acid test next weekend against Creative Cause in the Santa Anita Derby. He avoided a “bounce” in the San Felipe after running a “1 ¼” Thoro-Graph fig off a five-month layoff, and now, because he’s fresh and sharp again, must make sure he doesn’t run another huge number that would cause a bounce in the Kentucky Derby. Like Creative Cause, he doesn’t have to win. He just needs a good stiff race to move him forward.

Gemologist Todd Pletcher

Tiznow—Crystal Shard, by Mr. Prospector

While racing has been looking at Union Rags as its savior and protector from evil outside forces, perhaps it has been this guy all along who is on that path. He is after all undefeated, loves Churchill, and is bred to run all day. We’ll find out this weekend in the Wood Memorial. Somehow he has managed to separate himself from the mighty army assembled by Pletcher early in the year to attain the rank of No. 1 general. But before we get too excited, he has only one allowance victory to his credit this year and won that with such ease he could need a good old fashioned street fight in the Wood to get him battle-tested for the main onslaught on May 5. If it turns out he’s just that much better than his opponents, then he has to at least get something out of the race, as did all the other recent Derby winners who had only two preps, including his WinStar predecessor Super Saver, who also came up through the Pletcher ranks as his compatriots kept falling off the trail.

Take Charge Indy Pat Byrne

A.P. Indy – Take Charge Lady, by Dehere

Well, he took charge alright, getting away with a 1:12 three-quarters, and in doing so, turned the Derby trail upside down, inside out, and on its head by knocking off two of the top heavy hitters. Byrne did an excellent job having him sharp and fresh for this race. Now, we’ll just have to wait and see if switching at the last minute from a three-prep schedule to a two-prep schedule will have any effect on him in the Kentucky Derby. To his and Calvin Borel’s credit, they seized the opportunity and made the most of it. This colt has always shown great versatility and tactical speed, and the ability to use it at any point in the race. When Union Rags desperately needed to make his run and get into contention, he threw a :23 4/5 quarter at him, which all but sealed his fate. Byrne, who had a brief stint as one of the premier trainers in the country in the ‘90s, fell on hard times and was all but out of the game, and it’s great to see this colt come along and bring him back into national prominence. Many will chalk this race up to grand theft, but it wouldn’t be wise to underestimate this horse. As a side note, he became the eighth horse from last year’s BC Juvenile field to win a graded stakes this year.

Alpha Kiaran McLaughlin

Bernardini—Munnaya, by Nijinsky

Breezed a half in :49 before heading north for the Wood Memorial. It seems like ages ago that he ran; I can barely recall the Withers Stakes. I’m not even sure what I’m looking for from him on Saturday. McLaughlin is in it to win, and that’s good enough. I don’t think he’s in any danger of peaking. He can move forward off a win or a loss, so might as well go for it all for a million bucks. I don’t think his first two starts took much out of him; both were workmanlike performances against questionable competition. But he looked good doing it and there is no reason why he shouldn’t be closing in the stretch and no reason why he shouldn’t move forward off it. He’s the last Bernardini standing and Godolphin’s last chance.

Bodemeister Bob Baffert

Empire Maker—Untouched Talent, by Storm Cat

Baffert shifted gears and is sending him to the Arkansas Derby, even though his running style is similar to Secret Circle’s, who is trying for an Oaklawn trifecta. But Baffert entries never seem to compromise the other’s chances and often finish 1-2. There is no questioning this colt’s brilliance and gameness and how far he’s come in a short time. But as I’ve been saying, there is still that old Apollo curse, having never run at 2. Can he break a 120-year-old curse, or whatever you want to call it? And can he become only the third horse since 1918 to win the Derby having four or fewer career starts? He’s the only 3-year-old with a pair of triple-digit Beyers this year, so who knows, maybe he is that special.

Dullahan Dale Romans

Even the Score—Mining My Own, by Smart Strike

Obviously, the news about him popping a splint wasn’t good, but Romans said he’s perfectly sound now, and he did show up on the work tab April 1, breezing five furlongs in 1:02. So, it appears as if all is well for the Blue Grass Stakes. He’s been jumping around the mid-numbers of the Dozen because of the conflict between his speed figs and the visual aspect of his performances. He has yet to top an 86 Beyer or a “5 ½” Thoro-Graph figure, which would indicate he’s significantly slower than the leading Derby contenders. But I loved what I’ve seen in his last three starts – on Polytrack, dirt, and grass – and can’t help but think he has a big forward move in him, which will have to come in the Blue Grass Stakes, and then another one in the Derby. I just can’t equate his performance in the Palm Beach with an 86 Beyer. That’s not the race I saw. What I saw was a horse, looking like a million dollars, who ran extremely fast and closed in blistering fractions, regardless of how fast the turf course was. His speed figure and track variant in his PPs added up to an excellent 110, as archaic a method as that might be. If he runs another big one in the Blue Grass he definitely will catapult up the list.

Liaison Bob Baffert

Indian Charlie—Galloping Gal, by Victory Gallop

The forgotten horse, I still think he may be Baffert’s sleeper, especially after his 1:11 1/5 work. Rousing Sermon, who he defeated twice at Hollywood, bounced back with a strong third in the Louisiana Derby after two poor efforts at Santa Anita, and there is no reason to think he can’t bounce back as well in the Santa Anita Derby. He gave all indications he’s capable of it with a decent enough fourth in the San Felipe with blinkers off and dropping far off the pace, which is not his style of running. Baffert decided to keep him home and not look for a change of scenery, so maybe he’s confident the colt will run well. He certainly deserves one more chance.

Daddy Nose Best Steve Asmussen

Scat Daddy—Follow Your Bliss, by Thunder Gulch

He has not had a backwards Beyer move since his second start. Since stretching out to two turns, he has made a steady uphill climb, and his last two figs of 93 and 100 indicate a horse who is getting really good right now. In his two starts this year, his Thoro-Graph figs have jumped from a “6 ½” to a “2 ½.” He has the versatility trifecta of having won on dirt, grass, and synthetic. And he did finish second at 5 ½ furlongs on the dirt at Churchill Downs in his career debut, finishing four lengths ahead of Dullahan and behind the speedy Exfactor. Main drawback is that he will lose Leparoux, who has ridden him in his last eight starts. His sire is scorching hot right now.

Went the Day Well Graham Motion

Proud Citizen—Tiz Maie’s Day, by Tiznow

His Ragozin speed figure in the Spiral Stakes was 2 ½ points faster than Animal Kingdom’s in the same race last year. As a result they have decided not to give him another race before the Derby, just as they did with Animal Kingdom. Like with last year’s Derby winner, they will train him at Keeneland and ship to Churchill to work once or twice. Although he didn’t beat much in the Spiral, what I liked most about him was his efficient stride and the way he handled being bottled up in traffic. He is improving with every race and at the right time, and Animal Kingdom proved those horses are always dangerous.

Knocking At The Door

13 El Padrino Todd Pletcher

Pulpit—Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway

I honestly don’t know what to make of him at this point after his fourth in the Florida Derby. This isn’t what you want for your final prep, but I’m not tossing him out just yet. Did the Risen Star and traveling to New Orleans and back take too much out of him? You wouldn’t think so, considering he got a bigger Thoro-Graph figure in his allowance victory and Mark Valeski came back to run a strong race in the Louisiana Derby, despite throwing a shoe and returning lame. And he is a big, strong colt, so forget that theory. One other thought is this: When a jockey “rides” another horse, usually the favorite, there is always the danger of compromising his own chances. Castellano had every right to keep Union Rags pinned down and trapped; it’s called race-riding. But when the pace started to slow down I would have liked to seen him put the horse into contention before it was too late. Castellano has ridden this horse flawlessly, and you can’t blame him for thinking he had enough horse to make up 3 ½ lengths, but he seemed to stay focused on Union Rags too long and the first two just never came back. And he did have a wide trip. Who knows what would have happened had El Padrino run the same race as Reveron, which he could have with his tactical speed. That doesn’t excuse the horse for coming up flat in the stretch. It’s not like he wasn’t trying; he just didn’t have it on this day. But he’s too good a horse to discount off this one race.

14 My Adonis Kelly Breen

Pleasantly Perfect—Silent Justice, by Elusive Quality

Drilled a sharp half in a bullet :47 flat at Aqueduct for the Wood Memorial, giving him an all-important work over the track, which he obviously handles extremely well. With the distinct possibility of him winning the Wood, his 73-1 odds in the final Future Wager look like the potential steal of the year right now. He just needs to develop a consistent running style, having been effective on, near, and far off the pace. In most of his races last year he was right on the pace and in fact got caught up in a suicidal speed duel in the Delta Jackpot. In the Holy Bull this year, he came from 20 lengths back to finish third, falling a half-length short of catching Hansen for second. And in the Gotham, he sat about a length off the pace, but couldn’t match strides with Hansen in the stretch, finishing a clear-cut second, six lengths ahead of the third horse. He looks as if he’s sitting on a big race, stretching out to 1 1/8 miles, and would most likely catapult into the Top 5 with a win or a strong second.

15 Mark Valeski Larry Jones

Proud Citizen—Pocho’s Dream Girl, by Fortunate Prospect

Really can’t do much with him until we find out the extent and cause of his lameness after throwing a shoe in the Louisiana Derby. It is inconceivable to think he couldn’t catch the 109-1 shot Hero of Order in a :13 2/5 final eighth and :38 2/5 final three-eighths. So everything is up in the air with him until we know more. With only two two-turn races in his career, there already is a question how much foundation he has. But all in all, considering the circumstances, he ran a pretty gutsy race and did have enough of a gut-wrencher to prepare him for the Derby. We should know more shortly. (I’m not including the winner anywhere, as it is extremely unlikely he’ll be able to make the starting field, not being nominated).

16 Optimizer D. Wayne Lukas

English Channel—Indy Pick, by A.P. Indy

Breezed a half in :49 in preparation for the Arkansas Derby. We know this horse has ability and a strong closing kick. He just has to use them with some consistency and at least put in two good performances in a row, which is why the Arkansas Derby is such an important race for him. He’s right on the bubble with graded earnings and needs to pick up some money. Yes, he’s had some traffic issues this year, but he still should have run better. You can’t knock his second in the Rebel, as he was flying at the end, but he has to learn how to change leads, something he fails to do race after race. In short, the Arkansas Derby is a big race in more ways than one. When this horse runs his race he is extremely dangerous.

17 Prospective Mark Casse

Malibu Moon—Spirited Away, by Awesome Again

Still don’t know if he’s heading for the Wood Memorial or Blue Grass Stakes. His Beyers need to get faster in a hurry, with a career high 88, but he is on a nice pattern on Thoro-Graph, pairing up 5 ½ and 5 ¼ in his first two starts and then jumping to a 3 ½ in the Tampa Bay Derby with the addition of blinkers. He hasn’t beaten anyone of significance, but other than a poor effort in the BC Juvenile, he’s been a gem of consistency, finishing first or second in his other six starts.

18 Secret Circle Bob Baffert

Eddington—Ragtime Hope, by Dixieland Band

Does anyone, even Baffert, really know what to make of him? He’s still trying to shake the pre-conceived notion that he’s a sprinter by continuing to win each time he stretches out in distance. He doesn’t win pretty, but he wins. He’s razor-sharp right now, working a blistering five furlongs in :58 2/5 as he prepares for his final test in the Arkansas Derby, where his toughest opponent likely will be his own stablemate Bodemeister. He did drop 10 points in his Beyer fig in the Rebel (102 to 92), but has remained remarkably consistent in his Thoro-Graph numbers, running a 2 ½, 2 ½, 2 ½, 2 ½, and 2 ¾ in his last five starts. So distance is not slowing him down.

19 Rousing Sermon Jerry Hollendorfer

Lucky Pulpit—Rousing Again, by Awesome Again

He rebounded nicely off those two disappointing efforts at Santa Anita by closing from 11th to finish third, beaten two lengths, in the Louisiana Derby. But he was closing into a :13 2/5 final eighth and the two horses who finished in front of him were a 109-1 shot and a horse who threw a shoe in the race and returned lame. What is important is that he regained his form and demonstrated the big closing kick he showed at Hollywood Park last year.

20 Midnight Transfer Carla Gaines

Hard Spun—French Satin, by French Deputy

Although the mile and a quarter is a question mark with him, he is on a strong upward trend in his Beyers. He ran a huge “3” Thoro-Graph fig breaking his maiden in December and then paired up 4 ¾’s this year. He needs to take a step forward in the Santa Anita Derby, his second start around two turns. He’s just a little guy and the rigors of the Derby might be beyond his scope, but he tries and has a ton of sprinting speed that he can stretch out. It’s just a question of how far. He did get a little tired at the end of the San Felipe, but was competitive with Creative Cause and Bodemeister. We’ll just have to see in which direction he goes this weekend.

OTHERS TO WATCH

One horse who will be watched with great interest this weekend is STREET LIFE, who has turned two straight electrifying stretch runs and should make the final furlong of the Wood Memorial all the more interesting. If he should win or finish second, watch how quickly his bandwagon fills up.

Sitting just out of the Top 20 is REVERON, and he should make the list next week. He probably should be on there this week after his game second in the Florida Derby. The question is whether he was carried there by Take Charge Indy after chasing him through a slow three-quarters. He has an enigmatic pedigree, having all speed on top with Songandaprayer, and stamina on the bottom with Awesome Again. He was very game winning the Gulfstream Park Derby, and ran well enough to finish third in the Sam F. Davis from the 10-post. He had the blinkers removed for the Florida Derby and worked a bullet five-eighths in 1:00 4/5 at Calder a week before the race. He ran hard in the stretch and at one point looked like he had a shot to win, moving up on even terms with the winner, but couldn’t stay with him in the final furlong.

Expect our old friend SABERCAT to be back in the Top 20 next week after everything is sorted out in New York, California, and Illinois. Yes, he finished a disappointing eighth in the Rebel, but he was way too far back, some 15 lengths off the lead. He actually appeared to be moving with good momentum turning for home, but was in traffic and never sustained his run. This is the big disadvantage of giving a horse only two preps at 3. Everything has to go perfectly. He now has to make a huge turnaround in the Arkansas Derby and get something out of the race. I feel he can do it and expect big improvement with that first race behind him.

So, we could have a Ballydoyle duo in the Derby this year following the 1-3 finish by DADDY LONG LEGS and WROTE in the 1 3/16-mile UAE Derby. How that transfers to the dirt is hard to tell. Master of Hounds ran huge in last year’s Run for the Roses after his gutsy second in the UAE Derby. It was said by those close to the Ballydoyle contingent in last year’s Breeders’ Cup that Daddy Long Legs could be their best shot, but the son of Scat Daddy never picked up his feet after breaking slowly and beat only one horse. He has, however, made excellent progress from 2 to 3 and ran a strong race in the UAE Derby. Wrote looked fantastic winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, but his pedigree is almost all grass. He did close well over the Tapeta in the UAE Derby, but couldn’t catch Daddy Long Legs and was just beaten late for second by the French-trained Yang Tse Kiang. We’ll see how Aidan O’Brien goes about his attack on the Derby this year.

It will be very interesting to say the least to see what PAYNTER does in the Santa Anita Derby off one 5 ½-furlong maiden race.

Derby Dozen (video) - March 26, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

2012-03-26T22:32:00Z

Creative Cause Mike Harrington

Giant's Causeway—Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer

Still razor sharp after two tough races, as indicated by his :59 4/5 drill. It is those two stiff races that gives him the slight edge over Union Rags, and the fact that he has a bit more upside when it comes to getting the 1 ¼ miles. He could have been more professional in the stretch of the San Felipe, but we attribute that to the whip. We’d like to see Rosario put it away in the Santa Anita Derby and see what happens. He didn’t need it last year, and he doesn’t need any aggressive encouragement next time out, just a good solid effort to get him to Kentucky.

Union Rags Michael Matz

Dixie Union—Tempo, by Gone West

Breezed a half in :49, but flew home in :11 1/5, blowing by his two workmates, and was a pole in front going into the turn. He would seem to need a fairly stiff race, but Matz obviously doesn’t want him freaking either. He’s doing everything the right way. As dominating as he was against News Pending and Discreet Dancer in the Fountain of Youth, he should be tested by El Padrino, and the feeling here is that he’s going to need that test. Take Charge Indy and News Pending aren’t going to be waving any white flags either. He’s still the solid Derby favorite and has shown enough so far to indicate he could be on the road to greatness.

El Padrino Todd Pletcher

Pulpit—Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway

Let’s give credit to Pletcher and the Let’s Go Stable team for not being afraid to take on Union Rags now when they could have returned to Fair Grounds for the Louisiana Derby. Might as well find out how he stacks up now, as Union Rags should only get better after this race. El Padrino is a hard-running colt who will stay the distance and isn’t going to back down under fire, as he showed in the Risen Star. With Union Rags coming off only one easy win this year, this actually may be the perfect time for a tenacious, seasoned horse like El Padrino to test him. Pletcher was happy with his final work, a half-mile breeze in :49.

Hansen Mike Maker

Tapit—Stormy Sunday, by Sir Cat

Breezed 5 furlongs in 1:01 1/5, and is doing so well in Kentucky he’s going to stay home and return to the Polytrack in the Blue Grass Stakes instead of heading back to New York for the Wood Memorial as originally planned. The owner cites the safety factor in not having to travel and running on a kinder surface. We can’t recall more alterations in horses’ schedules than this year, as we’ve been bombarded with last-minute changes of plans. That’s not to say this isn’t a good idea. Polytrack has proven to be a decent springboard to the Derby, with two of the last five Derby winners having prepped over it. What is important for Hansen is to show again he can rate off the pace and come home strong.

I'll Have Another Doug O’Neill

Flower Alley – Arch’s Gal Edith, by Arch

I can’t pinpoint why I have such high regard for this colt, especially considering I questioned his skipping the San Felipe. But I love the way he’s been training, with that brilliant 6-furlong work between races followed by one-mile and 7-furlong works. The 7-furlong work in 1:26 1/5 seemed perfect; not too fast and not too slow. O’Neill is putting a lot of conditioning in him and air in his lungs, while trying to prevent him from peaking in the Santa Anita Derby following a two-month layoff. If he succeeds and I’ll Have Another is right there against Creative Cause and possibly Bodemeister, then he’ll have a tough horse on the first Saturday in May. I could be wrong about him, especially considering the Lewis form hasn’t held up, but I just have a feeling this is a much better horse than most people think, and he could be a huge Future Wager overlay at 22-1.

Gemologist Todd Pletcher

Tiznow—Crystal Shard, by Mr. Prospector

This is another colt who has been targeted for several different races and hasn’t run in any of them yet. He was given a stakes pass when an allowance race was carded for him, had a stroll in the park, and now needs a good stiff race to prepare him for the Derby off two starts. He, like Alpha, appears to be heading to the Wood Memorial against a large field, and another easy race is the last thing he needs. He is undefeated, he has the pedigree to run all day, and he has two victories at Churchill Downs. That is a dream resume. More importantly, from a physical and performance standpoint, he has made a great transition from 2 to 3. Like with Super Saver, a little R&R on the farm seems to have done wonders for him. Have to plead guilty for rooting for a son of Tiznow to win the Derby.

Dullahan Dale Romans

Even the Score—Mining My Own, by Smart Strike

Lowered him a little only because it’s so tight and at this point he will be the last of the major contenders to compete, along with Hansen. He’s the other horse I’d love to have in the Future Wager (at 26-1), because I find him so intriguing. I loved his second-place finish in the Palm Beach as much as any prep I’ve seen, even if it was on the grass. I can’t help but picture him flying late in the Derby. Although a non-threatening fourth, his race in the BC Juvenile ranked right up there with the top 3, as he turned a horrible trip into an excellent performance. Come Derby week, I expect him to be back in the top 5.

Alpha Kiaran McLaughlin

Bernardini—Munnaya, by Nijinsky

Breezed a sharp 5 furlongs in 1:00 4/5. Although we’ve had Steinbeck’s “Travels with Charley,” he goes down as the animal who has had the most interesting journey ever without having gone anywhere. At this point, it looks like he’s finally going to wind up in New York for the Wood Memorial. The bottom line is this is a legitimate Derby contender who is just itching to prove it. He appears to have the talent to take on anybody, and it’s not imperative that he win his final Derby prep, especially after a two-month layoff. He just needs to get in a starting gate, anywhere, and then get down to the serious business of preparing for the Derby. He has the tools, he has the trainer, and he has the pedigree. You can’t ask for much more.

Bodemeister Bob Baffert

Empire Maker—Untouched Talent, by Storm Cat

He moves up in stature after his bizarre work at Santa Anita that looked more like the chariot race from “The Ten Commandments.” That had to be the wildest free-for-all ever and he came through it like a champ, working in :46 4/5 for the half-mile. I don’t know if any horse has ever gotten a better learning experience out of a work, as he had to negotiate his way through a 10-horse cavalry charge, constantly getting dirt kicked in his face, and not only emerged unscathed, he turned in the second-fastest work at the distance. He still has a lot of history to overcome, but as we well know, times are changing, and he seems to have as much raw ability as anyone. He just needs to catch up in a hurry and keep a straighter course than he did in the San Felipe. Our best wishes to Baffert for a speedy recovery.

Mark Valeski Larry Jones

Proud Citizen—Pocho’s Dream Girl, by Fortunate Prospect

Jones has him razor sharp with a bullet :59 2/5 work. When the smoke clears, he should be a solid favorite in the Louisiana Derby, and is going to be awfully tough if he runs back to the Risen Star. We’ll find out if he’s a star in the making. Sometimes, it’s that second two-turn race that tells more about a horse with his kind of brilliance. They either move forward off the first one or they fail to duplicate it.

Liaison Bob Baffert

Indian Charlie—Galloping Gal, by Victory Gallop

Breezed 5 furlongs in 1:01 3/5 for likely start in the Santa Anita Derby. Thought Baffert might send him out of town after last two, but he’s listed as a probable starter. Still can’t help but think we’re going to see big improvement, but the Santa Anita Derby looks like a very tough place to do it. Basically, just looking for a clean trip and a strong finish. He certainly doesn’t need to win, but must at least be competitive with this group, so he can build off it and move forward in the Derby. If not here, the Arkansas Derby or even the Wood look like enticing spots to get him back on track.

Daddy Nose Best Steve Asmussen

Scat Daddy—Follow Your Bliss, by Thunder Gulch

Although he hasn’t been beating the best of fields he has won back-to-back graded stakes and has demonstrated that all-important desire to win. In his last two starts, he did beat good horses who finished far ahead of the third-place horse, which is something I love to see. Isn’t He clever, previously unbeaten at Sunland, beat the third horse by 7 ¼ lengths. If Union Rags makes it to the Derby, he’s going to lose Leparoux, who has ridden him in his last eight starts and they’re just now getting in sync with each other. The Sunland Derby was set up perfectly for him, but he did come home his last eighth in :12 flat. He’s getting sneaky-good right now.

Knocking At The Door

Went the Day Well Graham Motion

Proud Citizen—Tiz Maie’s Day, by Tiznow

Tough decision between him and Daddy Nose Best for No. 12 spot. Team Valor has been waiting for this kind of breakout race from him for a couple of months and has felt this was their Derby horse ever since he arrived from Europe. There is no doubting their ability to find good horses…anywhere. Big question now is whether to run him again before the Derby. Immediately after the race, owner and trainer seemed to have different thoughts on the matter. Although his race in the Spiral was impressive, and he demonstrated a very efficient stride, it wasn’t as eye-catching or professional as Animal Kingdom’s win last year and he could still use some fine tuning for the Derby. His closing fractions of :25 4/5 and :13 1/5 were just OK, and the first three finishers had never run in a stakes, so we really don’t know the true quality of the field. Most of all, however, loved the way he handled traffic, surrounded by horses a good deal of the trip, and never flinched. European background might have helped in that regard. Good chance he’ll jump into the Top 12 after next week’s races.

Holy Candy John Sadler

Candy Ride – Spooky Minister, by Deputy Minister

Yes, the pace was slow. Yes, it was only a maiden race. And, yes, the competition was far from strong. But there was something about his scintillating victory from a visual standpoint that caught the eye. His final half in :46 1/5 and final quarter in :22 4/5 didn’t hurt, nor did his powerful gallop-out, in which he opened 15 lengths in a flash. But most of all it was the way he was striding out in the final sixteenth that suggested this might be a pretty special colt. The Santa Anita Derby is an ambitious spot for his next start, especially with the top-class field being assembled and the fact he’ll probably need to win to assure a starting berth in the Kentucky Derby. But all that aside, we’re still going to pay close attention to him just to see what we’re dealing with.

Windsurfer Todd Pletcher

Speightstown – Surf Light, by Malibu Moon

This colt could be Pletcher’s best kept secret, and even coming off a maiden victory he may be ready for a bust-out performance in the Louisiana Derby. Although his pedigree is geared more toward speed than stamina, he was very impressive winning his last race at 1 1/16 miles after being forced 6-wide going into the first turn and still drew off to a 2 ½-length victory, coming home in a solid :24 3/5 and :06 2/5. He’ll go into the race off a visually impressive 1:01 3/5 breeze.

My Adonis Kelly Breen

Pleasantly Perfect—Silent Justice, by Elusive Quality

Returned to the work tab with a sharp five-furlong drill in 1:00 3/5 in preparation for the Wood Memorial. The only two horses who have finished in front him this year have been Hansen and Algorithms, and he has a license to improve big-time going 1 1/8 miles. Even with Gemologist and Alpha in the Wood, he’s going to be very dangerous. He definitely is one of our main sleepers and will climb up the list in the upcoming weeks as the Wood gets closer.

Optimizer D. Wayne Lukas

English Channel—Indy Pick, by A.P. Indy

I’m going to hold off until the Arkansas Derby, as there is a major question about the 3-year-old form at Oaklawn this year, especially with the failure of Castaway in the Sunland Derby. Unless there are some high-profile shippers for the Arkansas Derby, the race could come up a bit soft and turn out to be a rematch between this horse and Secret Circle. Baffert and Pletcher are so deep, this would seem like a good spot to try to land some huge graded earnings and grade I status. As for this colt, I’ve been a fan since last fall and would love to see him get Lukas back to the Derby. He just needs to put two good races in a row to be considered a serious contender. Looking for another big effort in the Arkansas Derby.

Secret Circle Bob Baffert

Eddington—Ragtime Hope, by Dixieland Band

Again, we need to see him take another step forward stretching out to 1 1/8 miles. He’s another horse who wants to win and that’s a trait that will always make him dangerous on the Derby trail, as long as he can prove his ability to get nine furlongs. At this point, it would seem logical to ship him back to Oaklawn for the Arkansas Derby after his two stakes victories over the track.

News Pending Dale Romans

Harlan’s Holiday—Motivated Sreva, by Lear Fan

Breezed five furlongs in 1:02 4/5 for the Florida Derby, which will be his make or break race, as it will Take Charge Indy. He just has to figure out what his best running style is and stay consistent with it, Right now we don’t know how he wants to run. We do know he has a big kick and can use it anywhere on the track. It would seem the later the better if he’s going to have any chance to pick up a big chunk of the purse on Saturday.

Prospective Mark Casse

Malibu Moon—Spirited Away, by Awesome Again

His connections have to decide whether to go in the Wood Memorial or Arkansas Derby. The latter would seem a logical spot for the reasons listed above, but the Wood would give him an extra week to the Derby. This is a consistent, hard-trying colt who just has to prove he can handle better horses than he was facing at Tampa Bay. His owner, John Oxley, did use the Wood as a springboard to a Derby victory with Monarchos.

Take Charge Indy Pat Byrne

A.P. Indy – Take Charge Lady, by Dehere

Breezed five furlongs in 1:01 2/5 for his all-important engagement in the Florida Derby, where, like News Pending, he needs to pick up enough graded earnings to move into the Derby picture. He is another whose best running style is still unknown. He also has a big move in him, but needs to time it right. Even with missing the Tampa Derby, a big effort by him on Saturday would not come as a surprise, and you can be sure, with his pedigree, his bandwagon will fill up quickly.

Others to keep an eye on this weekend are Cigar Street, a 13 ¼-length maiden winner last time out, who steps way up in company in the Louisiana Derby; California invader Rousing Sermon, who should appreciate the long Fair Grounds stretch and the switch to Mike Smith. Has to overcome the 12 post, but could be a smart play in here; the consistent Z Dager, who needs just a little more rocket fuel in the stretch; the late-running Shared Property, who has a good effort in him anytime he gets the right scenario; Finnegan’s Wake, an improving Dale Romans colt who was third in the Gotham; and Well Armed’s brother Arm Force, who was impressive last time out.

Others to watch are Street Life, who should be the big buzz horse in the Wood Memorial after his two electrifying stretch runs. The big issue with him is maturity; Sabercat, who is eligible to improve big-time off the Rebel; still haven’t given up on him; Howe Great, who will have his hands full in the Blue Grass; Najjaar, who will relish the extra distance in the Arkansas Derby; Tampa Bay Derby runner-up Golden Ticket; Our Entourage, who likely will head to the Illinois Derby in an effort to get owner Mike Repole back to Churchill Downs; Private Terms winner Raconteur, who should be heard from more prominently later on; Sam F. Davis winner Battle Hardened, who needs to rebound off a disappointing effort in the Tampa Bay Derby; Jake Mo, a consistent closer who finished a solid fourth in the Rebel; the four-time stakes-placed Senor Rain, who beat a strong field in a seven-furlong allowance/optional claimer at Santa Anita; Stat, another Pletcher latecomer who was brilliant winning a one-mile allowance/optional claimer; and the enigmatic Drill, who stretches back out in the Blue Grass Stakes.

Derby Dozen (video) - March 19, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

2012-03-19T19:37:00Z

Creative Cause Mike Harrington

Giant's Causeway—Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer

Yes, Union Rags is the sexy No. 1 pick and the most logical, but this guy right now is more battle-tested with two tough races, including an excellent sharpener sprinting, and has a bit more upside when it comes to getting the 1 ¼ miles. Both colts are trained by veteran conditioners who can read a horse with the best of them. Important thing with him is for the rider to stay away from the whip. He gives everything he has on his own and doesn’t need encouragement. That’s the only way he’s going to stay on a straight course.

Union Rags Michael Matz

Dixie Union—Tempo, by Gone West

Had an easy five-furlong breeze in 1:04 1/5. He will get a much-needed test from El Padrino in the Florida Derby, with the winner establishing himself as the solid Derby favorite. He has exhibited every trait you want in a Derby horse and his main asset is his superstar potential. Other quality opponents in the Florida Derby should make this the race of the year. Let’s see if Matz gives him a sharp work next week.

El Padrino Todd Pletcher

Pulpit—Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway

Breezed five furlongs in 1:01 1/5. He has two hard-knocking performances going two turns this year, in addition to a tough race in the 1 1/8-mile Remsen last year, so there is plenty of foundation under him and he’s been tested by good horses three times already. Like Creative Cause, he’s a hard-running horse who will not back down from a fight and should only get stronger the farther he goes.

Hansen Mike Maker

Tapit—Stormy Sunday, by Sir Cat

Turned in an easy half-mile breeze in :50 2/5 for the Wood Memorial, where he likely will face Alpha, Gemologist, and My Adonis among others. Although he rated beautifully in the Gotham, it couldn’t hurt to see him do it again just to show that it’s become natural for him and he can do it on a consistent basis.

Dullahan Dale Romans

Even the Score—Mining My Own, by Smart Strike

This horse intrigues me more each week and I kind of like the fact that he’s going dirtless this year into the Derby, adding to the intrigue and boosting his price on Derby Day. His Palm Beach is what a perfect losing prep is supposed to look like. He can even afford another one in the Blue Grass, as long as it’s not a plodding second or third, only running the last quarter mile. I’ll repeat his closing fractions of :22 4/5 and :11 2/5 (:34 1/5 final three-eighths) in the Palm Beach.

Gemologist Todd Pletcher

Tiznow—Crystal Shard, by Mr. Prospector

You couldn’t ask for a more visually impressive debut, but you have to wonder how much he got out of the race. He only has one more start to get battle-tested and build enough of a foundation to handle the rigors of the Derby. He does have a tendency to angle in slightly when he runs and paddles his left leg. But the bottom line is he’s undefeated in four starts and has two wins at Churchill Downs. He ran his field into the ground with a :22 3/5 second quarter and then came home his final half in a sharp :48 1/5. If you want to know how easily he won just look at his ears in the final sixteenth. His next start against much deeper competition will tell us how he stacks up. Looks like Castellano has yet another tough decision to make between him and El Padrino.

I'll Have Another Doug O’Neill

Flower Alley – Arch’s Gal Edith, by Arch

Liked his mile work in 1:42 3/5 and the fact that O’Neill hasn’t been afraid to turn the screws during this layoff. It may mean nothing, but it should be noted that the horses who finished 2, 3, 4 in the Lewis all ran poorly in the San Felipe. So, do we really know how good he is? Look at the Santa Anita Derby as a pool shot. He not only needs to knock in his ball, he has to make sure he leaves the cue ball in a good position for his next shot, because that follow-up shot is the one that matters. Despite the lack of success of his vanquished foes and the risk of running another lights out performance in the Santa Anita Derby and possibly regressing off it, I can’t help but feel this is a better horse than people think, and I do like the way O’Neill is bringing him up to the Santa Anita Derby by putting air in his lungs and taking some of the edge off him.

Alpha Kiaran McLaughlin

Bernardini—Munnaya, by Nijinsky

With a name like Alpha, he’s supposed to be the top dog, the dominant male, the boss. But his schedule has become a study in indecision. Does he duck Union Rags? Does he duck Hansen? Does he scurry off to Louisiana for easier pickins? After two months off basking in the Florida sun he needs to get his game face back on. There are no soft spots in April. Let’s see if he’s really the alpha dog or not, because he’s going to have to be on May 5. It isn’t easy trying to make the correct call. Take the easier route and try to take home the $1 million purse at Fair Grounds or let him get a taste of Rags and El Padrino or Hansen and Gemologist now to see where he fits with the best, and then move forward off it. Returning home and facing Hansen and Gemologist, win or lose, appears to be the most logical way to go and the best way to set him up for the Derby. One thing about McLaughlin, he has a way of making the right decision.

Mark Valeski Larry Jones

Proud Citizen—Pocho’s Dream Girl, by Fortunate Prospect

He’ll work by himself on Tuesday (March 20) and that will determine whether he goes in company in his final drill for the Louisiana Derby. Jones says he’s been galloping very strongly and is doing better now than for the Risen Star, and that he’s finally getting into a flow. One thing we’ve learned about Jones’ horses, they get awfully fit lugging their 180-pound trainer around the track every morning. He likely will inherit the role of favorite with El Padrino staying in Florida.

Liaison Bob Baffert

Indian Charlie—Galloping Gal, by Victory Gallop

Can’t wait to see how he runs in his next start. Although he made little impact on the San Felipe, he was taken out of his game at the start and seemed to take a while to get used to racing without blinkers. The moderate pace didn’t help him, nor did being stuck down on the inside behind traffic again, and if he can kick it up a notch he could pull a Coil (in last year’s Haskell) and show a whole new dimension. He also has to show he can handle better horses than he was beating at Hollywood Park last fall.

Bodemeister Bob Baffert

Empire Maker—Untouched Talent, by Storm Cat

There is no doubting his brilliance and raw talent. But not starting at 2 and having only four career starts give him a bit of a hill to climb. If anyone can overcome it is Baffert, who is in a class by himself getting a horse fit and tough for the Derby. He also can’t afford to drift out as badly as he did in the San Felipe. If anything can make up for lack of experience it is professionalism. We’ll chalk up the San Felipe to a learning experience and see if he can put his natural ability to better use in the Santa Anita Derby.

Optimizer D. Wayne Lukas

English Channel—Indy Pick, by A.P. Indy

Last fall, we wrote after the Breeders’ Futurity that this colt had tremendous potential, was actually bred for the dirt, and would be a force to reckon with on the Derby trail. He just needed to grow up and figure out what he was supposed to do. Well, he never lived up to the promise, due in part to several unfortunate trips and appearing clueless at times. Although he’s still pretty much clueless and still doesn’t know how to change leads, he did run an almost identical race to the Breeders’ Futurity, right down to rallying in the middle of the track and then cutting to the inside while still on his left lead. His pedigree is a Who’s Who of Phipps breeding and we’ll repeat it in detail next week. Right now, he has one objective, and that’s to run two good races in a row. He has the ability, but only consistency and maturity will get him to Churchill Downs as a legitimate contender.

Secret Circle Bob Baffert

Eddington—Ragtime Hope, by Dixieland Band

Putting him in the Top 12 strictly off his record and his desire to win, even though he’s not pretty doing it. Do I think he can win the Derby? Not really, but he’s making a lot of noise getting there and knows where the finish line is. From a visual standpoint, he really doesn’t look like he’s tiring at the end, even though Optimizer was running up his behind at the wire. But the closing fractions of the Rebel were a sluggish :26 1/5 and :06 4/5 and his 92 Beyer was the lowest of his career, so the numbers say he was. Or maybe those fractions can be attributed to the fact that he can’t seem to run in a straight line and continuously drifts out every race. I don’t think anyone, including Baffert, has a clue what to make of him, so he’ll just keep taking those baby steps toward Louisville.

Knocking At The Door

Castaway Bob Baffert

Street Sense – Priceless Storm, by Storm Cat

OK, bring on the Sunland Derby, America’s new favorite gateway to the classics, producing the Kentucky Derby winner, the Belmont winner, and the Preakness third-place finisher in the last three years. Yes, that’s the Sunland Derby, and this colt has a chance to complete Baffert’s Fab Four with another big performance this weekend. He is improving dramatically with every start and an improving Street Sense is always dangerous. He definitely is Baffert’s best shot at the mile and a quarter and needs one more top effort to crack the Top 12.

News Pending Dale Romans

Harlan’s Holiday—Motivated Sreva, by Lear Fan

Breezed five furlongs in 1:02 2/5 for the Florida Derby. He is one of those who is right on the edge of busting out in a big way. He just has to figure out what his best running style is and stick to it, instead of making a move at every and any point on the racetrack. His extremely early move in the Fountain of Youth was one of the little talked about gems of the year and showed just how versatile this colt really is.

Prospective Mark Casse

Malibu Moon—Spirited Away, by Awesome Again

This year’s quiet warrior, he just goes about his business race after race and does his thing, which for the most part lands him in the winner’s circle. The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile was his only out-of-the-money performance in seven career starts. He improved with blinkers on in the Tampa Bay Derby and must be respected wherever he shows up next, although he needs to boost his speed numbers and fast.

Take Charge Indy Pat Byrne

A.P. Indy – Take Charge Lady, by Dehere

Breezed five furlongs in 1:01 4/5 for his all-important engagement in the Florida Derby, where he’ll have to face Union rags and El Padrino off a layoff in an effort to pick up enough graded earnings to move up from the 28th slot. Only time will tell if scratching out of the Tampa Derby at the last minute due to the post position was a good decision. This is a good horse with a terrific pedigree, and if the timing and unorthodox schedule change manage to work to his advantage, he will be a force in the Triple Crown.

My Adonis Kelly Breen

Pleasantly Perfect—Silent Justice, by Elusive Quality

It’s been over two weeks since the Gotham, so he should be showing up on the work tab any day now. He’s gone pretty much unnoticed chasing Hansen and Algorithms this winter, but he is getting better and does his best running in the final furlong. Also, if you’re looking for foundation in a horse he’s made seven starts at a mile or longer.

Sabercat Steve Asmussen

Bluegrass Cat—Miner's Blessing, by Forty Niner

He may have fallen from the Top 12, but don’t be surprised to see him rebound with a much-improved effort in the Arkansas Derby or wherever he shows up next. He was up against it from the start dropping way too far out of it, some 15 lengths off a fairly moderate pace. He was moving with good energy turning for home, but was way too far back and in traffic the whole stretch run and never really got a clear run. Nakatani wisely didn’t push him too hard, yet he still was beaten only 2 ½ lengths for fourth and 6 ¼ lengths for all the money. The feeling here is that he can make up most or all of those 6 ¼ lengths with a cleaner trip next time.

Howe Great Graham Motion

Hat Trick—Ginger Sea, by Western Warrior

He doesn’t have the late-running style that Animal Kingdom showed last year, so we really don’t know what to make of him other than he’s a beautiful-moving horse who is dangerous on or just off the pace. As of now he’s pretty much of a guess, and let’s remember that his owner has stated all along he’s a much better horse on the grass.

Najjaar Dan Peitz

Jazil—Hasheema, by Darshaan

This colt is always going to be dependent on a fast, or at least honest, pace and he didn’t get either one in the Rebel, yet still managed to close from almost 21 lengths back to be beaten 4 ¾ lengths. Despite finishing sixth you still have to consider him a threat in the Arkansas Derby, especially if the pace is quicker and with the extra sixteenth of a mile.

Our Entourage Todd Pletcher

Street Cry – Sand Springs, by Dynaformer

Worked five furlongs in 1:01 1/5 as he prepares for either the Wood Memorial, which is getting tougher by the day, or the Illinois Derby, which will be a grab bag of horses trying to get into the Derby. If Hansen, Gemologist, and Alpha all show up in the Wood, he might be better off taking a shot over the quirky Hawthorne surface against much lesser competition.

Went the Day Well Graham Motion

Proud Citizen—Tiz Maie’s Day, by Tiznow

It’s graded earnings crunch time, and he’s in the same boat as dozens of other latecomers trying to snatch up a big purse. And what better race in which to attempt it than the Spiral Stakes, which launched Animal Kingdom’s assault on Churchill Downs last year. He has a great deal of potential. We’ll just have to wait and see if he waited too long to show it.

Zackn'mat Marty Jones

Northern Afleet – Pic Me for Fun, by Piccolino

Returned to the work tab with an easy half in :53 4/5. If this colt is flying again at the end of the Sunland Park Derby, you have to start taking him seriously. He runs hard all the time, and is always coming at the end, regardless of the distance. And there is a lot of class in his pedigree.

Street Life Chad Brown

Street Sense—Stone Hope, by Grindstone

This is one of the more intriguing horses on the Derby trail, based mainly on his electrifying stretch runs, despite his immaturity and inability to change leads. Not many horses can overcome a 1:15 1/5 three-quarters, but he exploded in the stretch once again in the Broad Brush Stakes, coming home in :24 2/5 and :06 flat. He’s probably not mature enough yet to tackle the Kentucky Derby, but we should find out in the Wood Memorial just where he stands against quality competition.

Midnight Transfer Carla Gaines

Hard Spun—French Satin, by French Deputy

Hung tough against two very fast and classy horses in his two-turn debut in the San Felipe. It was a big step forward for him, but there is still a question how effective he can be going classic distances, as he did back out of it just a bit in the final sixteenth.

Discreet Dancer Todd Pletcher

Discreet Cat—West Side Dancer, by Gone West

He dropped way off everyone’s radar after his punchless third in the Fountain of Youth, but with so many horses deserving of a second chance he should be one of them based on his two previous performances. Perhaps he’s only as good as he showed in the Fountain of Youth, but perhaps he’s much better and just happened to have an off day. We’ll find out one way or the other in the Louisiana Derby.

Heavy Breathing Todd Pletcher

Giant’s Causeway —Takemybreathaway, by Gone West

He’s only had two career starts, none as a 2-year-old, and is playing major catch-up, but he was dominant in both starts and has as strong a pedigree as anyone on the Derby trail. He’ll run this weekend in the Spiral Stakes and then would need to come back with another prep to have any chance of being a factor in the Derby.

Rounding out the Top 40 are Z Dager, a solid enough third in the Risen Star; El Camino Real Derby winner Daddy Nose Best and runner-up Lucky Chappy; Ender Knievel, an impressive allowance winner who is headed for the Sunland Derby; spectacular maiden winner Cigar Street; Private Terms winner Raconteur, a regally bred son of A.P. Indy; Windsurfer, a real sleeper who ran a super race breaking his maiden after going wide every step of the way and worked brilliantly last week; Jake Mo, a consistent closer who finished a solid fourth in the Rebel; stakes-placed maiden Brother Francis, who was a close third in a maiden race on the grass, but turned in another strong effort; Borderland Derby winner Isn’t He Clever; Golden Ticket and Cozzetti, second and third, respectively, in the Tampa Bay Derby; Stirred up, who won his first two-turn race over a really nice horse in Holy Candy; Finnegan’s Wake, third in the Gotham; impressive allowance winner Politcallycorrect; Well Armed’s full-brother Arm Force; Battaglia winner State of Play, who likely will run next in the Spiral or return to the grass; Battle Hardened, who gets another chance in the Wood Memorial after dull Tampa Bay effort; Mr. Prankster, who deserves another shot in the Spiral Stakes; the four-time stakes-placed Senor Rain, who beat a strong field in a seven-furlong allowance/optional claimer at Santa Anita; Stat, another Pletcher latecomer who was brilliant winning a one-mile allowance/optional claimer; and Union Rags’ stablemate Teeth of the Dog.

Derby Dozen (video) - March 12, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

2012-03-12T19:29:00Z

Creative Cause Mike Harrington

Giant's Causeway—Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer

Yes, he’s back in his familiar No. 1 spot, with all due respect to Rags. I just needed to see him take that important second step, and he used the San Felipe as a perfect prep to move forward again in the Santa Anita Derby. Harrington has done it the old-fashioned way, with the 7f sprint debut as a sharpener and then a two-turn tightener. CC accelerated quickly when Rosario nudged him on the turn and had so much momentum he floated way wide turning for home. CC raced erratically when Rosario kept snatching the reins on him and throwing crosses, trying to keep away from the whip, which the colt does not like or need. Rosario did give him a left-handed crack and CC ducked out from it. When Rosario finally went to a vigorous hand ride after coming together and locking horns with a stubborn Bodemeister, CC looked his antagonist in the eye, leveled off, and found another gear approaching the wire. Although the margin was three-quarters of a length, by the time he hit the turn galloping out, he was 6 lengths ahead of Bodemeister and kept widening. The proverbial street fighter, he’ll try to beat you any way he can. It’s a joy to see a horse handled the way this horse has been handled. He doesn’t need to be cranked to the max for the SA Derby, and as a result is going to be sharp, fit, and tough come Derby Day. The 1 ¼ miles and the extra race under his belt could give him the advantage he’ll need against Union Rags.

Union Rags Michael Matz

Dixie Union—Tempo, by Gone West

He’s still the one with the potential for greatness, but I had CC at No. 1 for the first four weeks and he’s earned his way back on top. Rags is the most gifted 3-year-old in the country, but I’ll depart from the crowd and stick with the gray warrior. We still have to see how much Rags gets out of the Florida Derby. With only two starts and already having an easy race, he needs to get into some sort of a slugfest, unless he’s just so much better than the others and will be able to dominate them on May 5 like Big Brown did. But these are much more formidable foes. Remember, Barbaro got his slugfest in the Florida Derby and it set him up for his rout in the Kentucky Derby. Returned to the work tab with a :50 3/5 breeze.

El Padrino Todd Pletcher

Pulpit—Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway

Drilled a half in :48; Pletcher with big decision regarding Louisiana Derby or Florida Derby. There isn’t much more to say about him other than what we’ve been saying all along. He’s not going to blow you away or have your jaw dropping, but try finding a chink in his armor. He does everything, and does it well. When you combine talent, tactical speed, consistency, temperament, and pedigree, how can you not consider him one of the major Derby contenders? I keep bringing up his Risen Star closing fractions of :23 1/5 and :06 1/5 for a reason. You don’t see many young horses coming home that fast, especially out-battling a horse closing almost as quickly after controlling the pace. The 5 ½-length gap to third substantiates the magnitude of both colts’ efforts.

Hansen Mike Maker

Tapit—Stormy Sunday, by Sir Cat

Each week, some horse who was prominent in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile enhances that form with a huge performance. When was the last time the BC has had such a major impact on the Derby trail? He truly sits upon an exalted throne. First it was Union Rags, then the champ the following week, and now Creative Cause this week, completing a remarkable trifecta for the Juvenile form. In a few seconds you’ll read about the superfecta. As far as this guy, his connections have to feel good about the Derby picture, considering how much he learned and how far he moved forward in the Gotham. That’s what these Feb. and March preps are for.

Dullahan Dale Romans

Even the Score—Mining My Own, by Smart Strike

Surprise! Hey, can’t leave him out of the Juvenile Jackpot after his eye-opening performance in the Palm Beach Stakes. No, he didn’t win, but you could not have asked for a more perfect debut, even if it was on the grass. This was not the same big, long-striding dude from last year who took forever to jump start his engine. Physically, he looked awesome, and as soon as he came out of the gate he got right down into the bit and was able to stay in touch with the field. He settled beautifully down the backside, while maintaining his striking distance. When Desormeaux asked him he showed off his patented quick-burst acceleration and pounced on the favorite Howe Great in a flash, while circling four wide. Here he was with his head in front of a brilliant colt in Howe Great before they even turned for home. In case you want a term for what was just described, it’s called a DIRT move. But it was grass and that is not a winning grass move, especially losing so much ground. Like last year, he had his head a bit high, but once Desormeaux hit him and he leveled off, he dropped his head and was striding out beautifully in the final furlong, while under no pressure to try to catch the winner. Oh, did I mention he came home in :22 4/5 and :11 2/5 (:34 1/5 final three-eighths) and ran his 1 1/8 miles in 1:46 3/5?

Sabercat Steve Asmussen

Bluegrass Cat—Miner's Blessing, by Forty Niner

Only a week away from his long, long-awaited debut. It seems like we’ve been waiting longer than four months, but he’ll finally debut in the Rebel Stakes and we can figure out just where he fits, if at all. Right now, just waiting for a final work. My persistence is based solely on what I saw last year from a visual standpoint. I have no idea how he’s progressed from 2 to 3, or even how good he really was last year. This has been my one and only gut selection and it will be good to see just what we’re dealing with. If he runs a big race it’s going to open up a lot of eyes.

I'll Have Another Doug O’Neill

Flower Alley – Arch’s Gal Edith, by Arch

My feelings about his skipping the San Felipe were made known in detail in my latest online column. Does it diminish how serious a horse I think this is? Not at all, and I can see him being one of my big plays come Derby Day. I’m just leery about the fine line they are treading and the chance he could run another corker in the Santa Anita Derby. Best case scenario for him is run the exact same race as Silver Charm in the ’97 Santa Anita Derby. That would be the kind of race that would toughen him up, give him a fairly solid foundation, and set him up for a big effort in the Kentucky Derby. He sure looked magnificent working 6 furlongs in 1:10 between races a little over a week ago.

Liaison Bob Baffert

Indian Charlie—Galloping Gal, by Victory Gallop

Bet you were expecting to see Bodemeister here, and certainly not this colt. But if there was a sneaky-good performance this year it was his fairly quiet fourth in the San Felipe. He seemed lost without the blinkers, but wait until next time. No one knows how to use Derby preps better than Baffert, and this horse had a lot of questions to answer after his Lewis debacle. When he swerved in a bit at the break, he immediately took himself into virgin territory, hanging out at the back of the pack. Down the backside, he again was stuck down on the rail with a tight wall of horses in front of him and no escape route. He lost whatever position he had and dropped back to last. At this point he appeared lost, with no chance at all of winning. The fact he at least picked himself off the floor and closed methodically to finish fourth, beaten 5 ½ lengths, was a step in the right direction, and he got a lot of the kinks out. Remember how slowly Baffert worked him going a mile? No way he was fully cranked for this race. Look for a huge improvement next time out, second race blinkers off. You sure don’t have to worry about him being too rank early anymore.

Alpha Kiaran McLaughlin

Bernardini—Munnaya, by Nijinsky

The way things have been going, McLaughlin is going to need a soothsayer to tell him whether to stay in Florida and face Union Rags or go back to New York and take on Hansen. Neither prospect seems all that appealing, but such is life on the Derby trail, especially this year when there seems to be a tiger behind every door. But who knows, maybe there are stripes under Alpha’s bay coat and sharp claws under his hooves. You never know where tigers are lurking on the road to Louisville. Forget Rags and forget Hansen. There’s no more inner track to conquer, and Alpha just has to go out and do his thing and run a big enough race to get him to Churchill in peak condition. It seems like ages ago since he’s run, so he better turn the screws a bit wherever he shows up.

Gemologist Todd Pletcher

Tiznow—Crystal Shard, by Mr. Prospector

In yet another change of plans, he’ll now make his debut in an allowance race at Gulfstream the day before the Rebel, as Pletcher couldn’t get a return flight. Unbeaten Hopeful winner Currency Swap should give him a good test. He’s going to need it. Let’s not forget this is a grade II-winning undefeated colt who desperately needs a good race under him. If he runs big and remains unbeaten, everyone will take notice. If he doesn’t run big, then he’s going to have perform a magic act in the little time he has remaining. Had his final work, a :49 3/5 breeze.

Mark Valeski Larry Jones

Proud Citizen—Pocho’s Dream Girl, by Fortunate Prospect

The talent is there, but like a few of the others, will he have enough bottom with only two distance races in his career? Jones knows how to stretch them out, and no one should forget the job he did with Hard Spun. We’ve already expounded on the virtues of his C.V. Whitney dominated female family, so he certainly has a solid pedigree to fall back on. He also appears to be extremely sensible and showed his ability to adapt to new and different scenarios.

Bodemeister Bob Baffert

Empire Maker—Untouched Talent, by Storm Cat

Call him the defier of history. The 120-year-old Apollo curse awaits him. No big deal, obviously. Winning the Derby with as few as four career starts (accomplished once since 1918). Shrug it aside. His talent and brilliance will save the day. At least that’s what his connections are hoping. As impressively and gamely as he ran in the San Felipe, if you want to see what inexperience can do, just watch him drift about seven horse paths out after some left-handed encouragement in the final sixteenth. By doing that it forced him to run sideways at a crucial point and put himself right in close range of Creative Cause’s radar. CC was engaged in his own meandering scamper and had no one to actually light a fire under him until Bodemeister came calling. This colt has tremendous upside and a limitless future, but still has issues to overcome (like those mentioned above and a hot Derby pace) if he’s going to make any kind of splash on the first Saturday in May.

Knocking At The Door

Castaway Bob Baffert

Street Sense – Priceless Storm, by Storm Cat

He’s been climbing the ladder one rung at a time, and he could just get to the top on the right day. Forget the speed differential between him and stablemate Secret Circle. When it comes to the Derby, time is on his side and there’s no rush for him to start breaking stopwatches. He just needs to keep forging forward, and still has two more preps to work with. From a visual standpoint, he was very impressive in the Southwest and that’s all you need to take out of that race. Right now, he’s Baffert’s dark horse to make noise on Derby Day.

News Pending Dale Romans

Harlan’s Holiday—Motivated Sreva, by Lear Fan

Drilled a sharp five furlongs in 1:00 4/5, his first work since the Fountain of Youth. There are some generals that like to attack in full force with everything they have and not waste time. But there some, like Dale Romans, that use guerilla tactics and try to pick you apart slowly and quietly. Romans hasn’t had the weapons to launch a full-scale attack, but he’s been popping off sneak attacks lately that have caught the enemy by surprise. First it was this guy, who came out of nowhere to snatch second in the Fountain of Youth. Then came an even more obscure combatant, Finnegan’s Wake, who snuck off with a third in the Gotham Stakes. That was followed Saturday by another nondescript fellow named Cozetti, who absconded with a third-place prize in the Tampa Bay Derby. And finally came his main warrior, Dullahan, who came away with a well-orchestrated second in the Palm Beach Stakes. All of a sudden, Romans has four potential Derby horses, three of which he virtually pulled out of a hat.

Prospective Mark Casse

Malibu Moon—Spirited Away, by Awesome Again

Well, what do you know, another BC Juvenile starter making a splash in stakes races at 3. He joins an amazing list – Hansen, Union Rags, Creative Cause, Dullahan, Alpha, and Drill. His Juvenile was his only out-of-the-money performance in seven career starts. He improved with blinkers on in the Tampa Bay Derby and must be respected wherever he shows up next. His competition was questionable and he only got an 88 Beyer, but he definitely is on the improve.

My Adonis Kelly Breen

Pleasantly Perfect—Silent Justice, by Elusive Quality

A versatile colt, who can be effective from anywhere on the track, only Hansen and Algorthims have finished in front of him this year. He should continue to improve as the distances keep stretching out. Breen is looking forward to bringing him back for another crack at Hansen in the Wood Memorial, and it’s never wise to overlook Breen in big stakes.

Howe Great Graham Motion

Hat Trick—Ginger Sea, by Western Warrior

There’s no way I can tell if he’s a Derby horse when his owner has said all he’s a grass horse. However, grass horses have done well in the Derby recently and we’re seeing more and of them making a Polytrack stop before heading to Churchill Downs. This colt runs like a grass horse, but he has handled the dirt well at Philly Park and has looked good in his two turf stakes scores this year. They pulled it off last year, so why not try again with him or Lucky Chappy or State of Play. It’s open season on the Derby.

Take Charge Indy Pat Byrne

A.P. Indy – Take Charge Lady, by Dehere

Only time will tell if scratching out of the Tampa Derby at the last minute was a good decision. We’ll have to see who he runs into in the Florida Derby. Bottom line is that he needs a big effort and he’s going to have to produce one off a long layoff against the top-ranked 3-year-old in the country. They haven’t left themselves with many options, so this race will determine whether he’s a Derby horse or a Belmont horse. He has that big move in him, but needs to finish it off. Twice he’s opened clear leads and has gotten caught in the final furlong. But that’s just a matter of timing and maturity more than anything else.

Our Entourage Todd Pletcher

Street Cry – Sand Springs, by Dynaformer

Worked a half in :48 for most likely either the Illinois Derby or Wood Memorial. He looks like a good fit for the Wood, but they may decide Hawthorne is the better place to collect much-needed graded earnings. Crazy about his pedigree. By the sire of Zenyatta, out of a mare by Barbaro’s sire Dynaformer, he has the Rasmussen Factor (RF), being inbred to Natalma, and also is inbred to Hoist the Flag, giving him three doses of Ribot, and to Hail to Reason through Roberto and Halo. No pressure with him. If it doesn’t work out, he can point for the Belmont or go back to the grass.

Went the Day Well Graham Motion

Proud Citizen—Tiz Maie’s Day, by Tiznow

Well, Team Valor has at least one horse who is accomplishing something on the dirt. I wish he had another race under him and had received his class test already, but you have to make do with what you have, and he does look to have a bright future. He seems very straightforward and professional and is improving with each race, so they’ll just have work with that and see where he takes them.

Najjaar Dan Peitz

Jazil—Hasheema, by Darshaan

He could be the wise-guy horse in the Rebel because of his exciting running style, but he’ll be going up against far better horses than the ones he’s been facing. If he makes that big move on the turn and can get himself into good position turning for home it will be very interesting to see if he can finish it up against some fast proven stakes horses.

Midnight Transfer Carla Gaines

Hard Spun—French Satin, by French Deputy

Zackn'mat Marty Jones

Northern Afleet – Pic Me for Fun, by Piccolino

We’ll give him one more week and if he still hasn’t worked, we’ll have to put him on the back burner unless we hear otherwise. Just something about this horse I like. He runs hard all the time, and is always coming at the end, regardless of the distance. His broodmare sire, Piccolino, was bred by John Nerud and is by Fappiano, out of stakes-winning Mochila, a half-sister to Cozzene. Pic Me For Fun is inbred to Dr. Fager, so there is a great deal of Nerud’s influence in his pedigree.

Rounding out the Top 40 are Z Dager, a solid enough third in the Risen Star; Southwest division winner Secret Circle; El Camino Real Derby winner Daddy Nose Best and runner-up Lucky Chappy; four more Pletcher horses, Discreet Dancer, who is better than he showed in the Fountain of Youth; Ender Knievel, an impressive allowance winner who likely is headed for the Sunland Derby; Spring Hill Farm, who should improve off his fourth-place finish in the Tampa Bay Derby in only his third career start on a track over which he was spinning his wheels; and Windsurfer, a real sleeper who ran a super race breaking his maiden after going wide every step of the way; Brother Francis, who was a close third in a maiden race on the grass, but turned in another strong effort. He just needs to learn how to win; sensational Fair Grounds maiden winner Cigar Street, who has a lot of catching up to do; Borderland Derby winner Isn’t He Clever; Scatman, game second to Secret Circle in the faster Southwest division; Golden Ticket and Cozzetti, second and third, respectively, in the Tampa Bay Derby;

Stirred up, who won his first two-turn race over a really nice horse in Holy Candy; Finnegan’s Wake, third in the Gotham; impressive allowance winner Politcallycorrect; Well Armed’s full-brother Arm Force; Hopeful winner Currency Swap, who debuts against Gemologist on Friday; Battaglia winner State of Play, who likely will run next in the Spiral or return to the grass; and Union Rags’ stablemate Teeth of the Dog.

Derby Dozen (video) - March 5, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

2012-03-05T19:41:00Z

Union Rags Michael Matz

Dixie Union—Tempo, by Gone West

Now that all the superlatives have subsided and we continue to forge ahead on the Derby trail, it should be noted that because the Fountain of Youth appeared to take very little out of him, he’s going to need a stiff test in the Florida Derby, much like Barbaro, if he’s going to be battle tested enough off only two starts. Of course, he could be another Big Brown and is simply so much better than the rest of them. But this appears to be a much more talented group of 3-year-olds and he probably could use a gut check next time out. But the way he looked in the Fountain of Youth, good luck finding a horse to test him.

El Padrino Todd Pletcher

Pulpit—Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway

He now is Pletcher’s top gun, unless Gemologist has something to say about it. His two starts this year and the Remsen last year have built a solid foundation and there’s no pressure on him to run lights out next time. Still can’t find any faults in him – right running style, right pedigree, right temperament, and he won’t back down from a fight. Some question his narrow margin in the Risen Star, but his :23 1/5 and :06 flat final fractions and 5 ½-length gap to third tell you what a big effort this was.

Creative Cause Mike Harrington

Giant's Causeway—Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer

Worked 6 furlongs in 1:11 4/5, and as of this writing he is 50-50 for the San Felipe. That race or the Rebel will determine just where he fits and how much progress he’s made. BC Juvenile form has been holding up exceptionally well and a big performance next time will put him right up there at the head of the class. He’s even not ranked this high on the majority of lists, but the feeling here is that it’s mainly because he’s not as flashy as some of the higher regarded horses. But flashy doesn’t win The Kentucky Derby. One thing is for sure if he does stay home, he will either make Out of Bounds and/or Fed Biz look like world beaters or expose their inexperience, because they’re going to have to run their eyeballs out to beat him. The same applies to whoever shows up in the Rebel if that’s where he goes.

Hansen Mike Maker

Tapit—Stormy Sunday, by Sir Cat

A little tinkering – removal of blinkers and change of bit – and, voila, you’ve got yourself a Derby horse. Now that he’s shown he can relax and overcome the 12-post and going 6 wide on the first turn, his brilliance and class can take over. You had to love the way he came back to Dominguez after losing so much ground, then settled behind a horse and drew off to a 3-length score under a hand ride. Maker also made other little changes and tweaks and it says a lot about the horse that he responded to all of them. It also shows the importance of having three preps compared to two. He got his bad race out of the way early, which became a learning experience for his connections; got all the experimenting out of the way in race 2, and now just needs to move forward in race 3, likely against better quality horses, without having to risk pulling a Bellamy Road and turn in a freaky performance a race too early. In short, the champ looks to be back and better than ever.

Sabercat Steve Asmussen

Bluegrass Cat—Miner's Blessing, by Forty Niner

Worked sharp 6f in 1:12 3/5. Assistant trainer Scott Blasi says he looks as good physically as he’s ever seen him and his works have been “spot on.” They are considering the Rebel, but are “not expecting his best performance off the bench.” Rebel may be an easier spot than the San Felipe, but a much larger field, so they’ll have to consider all the factors. Wherever he runs, he just needs a good solid performance and to get a lot out of the race in order to set him up for his final prep and more importantly the mile and a quarter of the Derby. He also has to show he’s fast enough to compete with the top guns. Still believe this is very talented horse with a great deal of upside; he just needs to have his two starts go perfectly.

I'll Have Another Doug O’Neill

Flower Alley – Arch’s Gal Edith, by Arch

Turned in a brilliant work between races, going in :58 1/5 and 1:10 and did it all on his own. But can’t forget the fact that he would be the first horse in 15 years to win the Derby having fewer than 3 races at a mile or longer in his career. And the only horses in memory who have accomplished that – Silver Charm, Sunday Silence, Bold Forbes, and Proud Clarion – all had more than two starts at 3, so he could very well be attempting something that has never been done in modern times. With that said, his Lewis win and most recent work suggest he could be a much better horse than most people think. If you feel he’s taking the right path, he is very intriguing at 22-1 in the Future Wager.

Fed Biz Bob Baffert

Giant’s Causeway—Spunoutacontrol, by Wild Again

Worked 6f in 1:13 2/5. In many ways his next start is the most highly anticipated, because his ceiling is so high. He has shown such flashes of brilliance that a big win in the San Felipe will skyrocket him right up there with Union Rags on everyone’s lists. He is a physical standout and impeccably bred, and the only thing he has to do now is show he can beat top-class horses in stakes competition. Because he’s never run in a stakes, one can only speculate where he fits among the leading Derby contenders. Even a close second against a horse like Creative Cause or Out of Bounds would be a move in the right direction. If he should win impressively, then his reputation, as his dam indicates, would spinoutacontrol.

Alpha Kiaran McLaughlin

Bernardini—Munnaya, by Nijinsky

Worked a half in :49 4/5, as he waits for either the Florida Derby or Wood Memorial. He’s had enough time to adapt to the hot weather in Florida, but a return to the cool weather could be a good tonic for him. If Union Rags looks to be the only major threat in the Florida Derby, he could very well stay there. He would only need to be competitive and finish a good second to set himself up for a big effort on the first Saturday in May. Right now he’s just lurking quietly in the bottom half of the Top 12, waiting for that one opportunity to strike. Remember the one-time band of Bernardinis – Algorithms, Alpha, Consortium, and Casual Trick – high on the Derby Trail? Well, he’s the only one left.

Gemologist Todd Pletcher

Tiznow—Crystal Shard, by Mr. Prospector

Continues to move forward in his training, drilling five furlongs in 1:00 1/5 for his 3-year-old debut. That’s two sharp five-furlong works in a row and he should be ready for a big effort in the Rebel off a 3 ½-month layoff. He is after all undefeated and two-for-two at Churchill Downs, is a grade II winner, has excellent tactical speed, and bred to run all day, so he really doesn’t have much to prove except to show that he’s made progress after spending time at the farm, a tactic WinStar proved successful with Super Saver. He’s been out of sight, out of mind, but could rectify that in a hurry. His placing on here shows just what a deep, talented group of 3-year-olds we have this year.

Mark Valeski Larry Jones

Proud Citizen—Pocho’s Dream Girl, by Fortunate Prospect

If he only has one more start, which is likely, he’ll fall into the same category as I’ll Have Another. The talent is there, but will he have enough bottom with only two distance races in his career? He does, however, have that important third start this year. Repeating his tail-female family for all those who like the old-time pedigrees from the pillars of the turf. His is the very best of C.V. Whitney. Third dam Silver True won the Spinaway and produced Suburban and Whitney winner Silver Buck, sire of Silver Charm. Fourth dam Silver Fog, by Mahmoud, is the dam of Hall of Famer Silver Spoon, winner of the Santa Anita Derby against the boys and eight other major stakes, and Silver Bright, winner of the Arlington Lassie and dam of State Dinner, winner of the Suburban, Met Mile, and Whitney.

Liaison Bob Baffert

Indian Charliee—Galloping Gal, by Victory Gallop

Followed up his mile breeze in 1:43 with a six-furlong work in 1:13 4/5, as Baffert continues to teach him to relax early, something he’ll have to do in the San Felipe to show that his dull performance in the Lewis was a fluke. He could also use a clear trip and not get stuck down on the inside again. You don’t want horses backing up into him when the jock is trying to get him to settle. He’s already proven he’s a good horse and a gutsy competitor; he just has to put that last race behind him.

Empire Way Mike Harrington

Empire Maker – Delta Princess, by A.P. Indy

Worked five furlongs in 1:01 for the San Felipe, as Harrington said that’s where he’ll definitely run in an effort to collect much-needed graded earnings. Not the easiest spot to accomplish that, but he’s improving quickly. Some believe he’s been closing the gap on stablemate Creative Cause, but he still hasn’t shown the same speed and class, so we’ll see what the next race brings. You certainly can’t get a more illustrious pedigree.

Knocking At The Door

News Pending Dale Romans

Harlan’s Holiday—Motivated Sreva, by Lear Fan

Romans managed to pick up another graded stakes placing on dirt with stablemate Finnegan’s Wake in the Gotham, so he obviously is loading up for an assault on Churchill Downs. This colt still intrigues us the most, with his diversity and ability to make a big move at any point in the race. He even is dangerous on the lead. There were so many aspects of his Fountain of Youth that point to him as an up-and-comer to be reckoned with.

My Adonis Kelly Breen

Pleasantly Perfect—Silent Justice, by Elusive Quality

With a come-from-the-clouds third in the Holy Bull and now a tracking second in the Gotham, he is making great strides with every race. Only Hansen and Algorthims have finished in front of him this year. Like News Pending, he is very adaptable and can be placed anywhere on the track. Breen is looking forward to bringing him back for another crack at Hansen in the Wood Memorial.

Castaway Bob Baffert

Street Sense – Priceless Storm, by Storm Cat

Worked five furlongs in 1:01 1/5. From a visual standpoint, he was very impressive in the Southwest, despite running a full second slower than Secret Circle, who is simply a faster horse going a mile. But we’re looking at a mile and a quarter, and he should be plenty fast going that far with his pedigree. He’s sort of Baffert’s quiet horse right now, but that could change quickly.

Dullahan Dale Romans

Even the Score—Mining My Own, by Smart Strike

With back-to-back five-furlongs works in :59 1/5 and 1:00 3/5 at Gulfstream, he’s more than ready for his long-awaited 3-year-old debut. Unfortunately, it’s going to come on the grass, so we won’t know much more about him than we already know, other than whether he’s maintained his 2-year-old form. He’s going against some tough horses in Exothermic and Howe Great in the Palm Beach, but if he remains on course for the Blue Grass we’re really not going to have a good grasp on what he’s capable of doing in the Derby. His pedigree says dirt will not be an issue and you sure can’t knock the three horses who finished ahead of him in the BC Juvenile.

Bodemeister Bob Baffert

Empire Maker—Untouched Talent, by Storm Cat

Worked six furlongs in 1:14, then five panels in 1:00 2/5 in company with Secret Circle. He is among three horses Baffert is considering for the San Felipe, but only two will run. Talk about a high ceiling, this colt is capable of anything following his sensational maiden victory, in which he drilled stablemate Stirred Up, who came back to win going two turns on Saturday. But let’s remember, he does have the Apollo curse to overcome, not having raced at 2. What better year to end the curse than on its 120th anniversary. He obviously needs to get two races in him before the Derby, and even then, winning the Derby off four career starts is going to be tough. Only one horse, Big Brown, has done it with four starts or less since Exterminator in 1918, so he does have a lot of history to overcome.

Take Charge Indy Pat Byrne

A.P. Indy – Take Charge Lady, by Dehere

Getting real sharp now, drilling a half in :47 3/5 at Palm Meadows. Only two races in Florida are the Tampa Derby and Florida Derby, otherwise he’ll have to ship out of town. Tampa Derby fits his style and ability to make a big early move and try to bust the race wide open. This is another colt with a lot of room for improvement. He has that big move in him, but needs to finish it off. Twice he’s opened clear leads and has gotten caught in the final furlong. But that’s just a matter of timing and maturity more than anything else.

Our Entourage Todd Pletcher

Street Cry – Sand Springs, by Dynaformer

With Pletcher’s pair in the Gotham – Dan and Sheila and Raconteur -- not faring very well, it would seem he’s more likely to contest the Wood Memorial over the same track he ran well at in the Remsen. But nothing is definite yet regarding his plans. By the sire of Zenyatta, out of a mare by Barbaro’s sire Dynaformer, he has the Rasmussen Factor (RF), being inbred to Natalma, and also is inbred to Hoist the Flag, giving him three doses of Ribot, and to Hail to Reason through Roberto and Halo. The Illinois Derby is also being considered.

Exothermic Rusty Arnold

Empire Maker – Irridescence, by Caesour

Hasn’t worked since his :58 4/5 drill on Feb. 24, so we’ll just wait for him to reappear on the work tab for his final prep for the Palm Beach, where we’ll find out just how good he is after two explosive performances. If this colt handles the dirt in the Derby the way he does the grass, and he should with his breeding, there’s no telling what he’s capable of. He’s demonstrated a European-like turn of foot and just bounds along with big, beautiful strides, which make it appear as if he’s leaping off the ground.

Zackn'mat Marty Jones

Northern Afleet – Pic Me for Fun, by Piccolino

Just something about this horse I like. He runs hard all the time, and is always coming at the end, regardless of the distance. He ran into the proverbial buzzsaw in Isn’t He Clever in the Borderland Derby. The winner has shown he loves Sunland Park, and this colt ran a huge race once he leveled off and got into his stride, but couldn’t catch the winner, who came home his last sixteenth in :06 1/5. His broodmare sire, Piccolino, was bred by John Nerud and is by Fappiano, out of stakes-winning Mochila, a half-sister to Cozzene. Pic Me For Fun is inbred to Dr. Fager, so there is a great deal of Nerud’s influence in his pedigree.

Went the Day Well Graham Motion

Proud Citizen—Tiz Maie’s Day, by Tiznow

He would have to jump from a maiden race and get enough graded earnings to make it into the Kentucky Derby, but he’s capable of it in the right spot; perhaps a race like the Illinois Derby. He looked like a classy colt breaking his maiden, rating beautifully right behind the leaders, outrunning the two horses who had him pinned in, and then after easing outside the two leaders accelerated after a late lead change to draw clear. Again, he’s a race behind if he’s trying to make the Derby, so he’ll have to step way up next time.

Najjaar Dan Peitz

Jazil—Hasheema, by Darshaan

It might be time to start taking this Shadwell colt seriously after he turned in another of his monster moves, beating older horses in an Oaklawn allowance race. Granted, he wasn’t beating much, but there were a few accomplished horses in there and his burst of speed around the turn was pretty devastating. He does it consistently and that makes him dangerous. Whether he can pounce on top-class 3-year-olds the same way is another matter. We’ll just have to wait and find out.

Rounding out the Top 40 are Rousing Sermon, who seeks to make amends in the San Felipe; Z Dager, a solid enough third in the Risen Star; Southwest division winner Secret Circle; the first two finishers of the Sam F. Davis, Battle Hardened and Prospective; San Pedro winner Midnight Transfer, who has been working sharply for his stretch-out for the San Felipe; El Camino Real Derby winner Daddy Nose Best; four more Pletcher horses, Discreet Dancer, who is better than he showed in the Fountain of Youth; Ender Knievel, an impressive allowance winner who likely is headed for the Sunland Derby; Spring Hill Farm, who made it two-for-two with a mile allowance score at Gulfstream two weeks ago; and Windsurfer, who ran a super race breaking his maiden after going wide every step of the way; and Howe Great, another talented grass horse who is pointing for the Palm Beach and then Blue Grass.

Other names to watch are the Borderland Derby winner Isn’t He Clever; well accomplished maiden Brother Francis, who is back working and heading for a grass maiden race; Scatman, game second to Secret Circle in Southwest division; Street Life, who ran an awesome race at Aqueduct and returns in another allowance test on Wednesday; Stirred up, who won his first two-turn race over the weekend over a really nice horse in Holy Candy; impressive allowance winner Politcallycorrect; Well Armed’s full-brother Arm Force; Gulfstream Derby winner Reveron, Hopeful winner Currency Swap, Battaglia winner State of Play, who likely will run next in the Spiral or return to the grass; and Union Rags’ stablemate Teeth of the Dog.

Derby Dozen (video) - February 27, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

2012-02-27T14:14:00Z

Union Rags Michael Matz

Dixie Union—Tempo, by Gone West

Well, we’ve got ourselves a legitimate, top-class Derby favorite. This was as dominating and effortless a victory as you’ll see on the Derby trail, or any other trail. Most important, he ran a straight course and did everything perfectly. There is no doubt he has grown into a man, and a big one at that. He has shown on countless occasions he has a good mind, other than last year’s occasional stretch foibles. But that seems to be behind him now. He came home in :23 4/5 and :06 2/5 under wraps late, and continued to draw away despite the short stretch run. It must also be noted, however, that the 2nd and 3rd-place finishers had never competed in a stakes. But he showed in the Champagne what a special horse he is and people forget how much ground loss he had to overcome in the BC Juvenile, just as they forget how much stamina he has in his tail-female family. Remember, speed from the sire, stamina from the dam. He also has the perfect running style for the Derby, settling back off the pace and unleashing an explosive run from the three-eighths pole to the top of the stretch. And his stride is a thing of beauty.

El Padrino Todd Pletcher

Pulpit—Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway

He had only two things to prove: win on a fast track and show what he’s made of under fire. He now has nothing to prove. If you look like a Derby horse, run like a Derby horse, fight like a Derby horse, and are bred like a Derby horse...Well, you can fill in the rest. He also has the luxury of just using his next start as a springboard to the Derby. He’s already battle-tested, has run back-to-back fast races, has a solid foundation under him, and the horses who have finished second to him have finished way ahead of the others. And when you can come home in :23 1/5 and :06 flat, as he did in the Risen Star, you are one serious horse. Normally a quiet, easy-going horse, he did scare the heck out of his connections when he got spooked in his saddling stall (something he may have inherited from his sire) and leaped in the air with all four legs off the ground. It actually was quite a feat of athleticism, but thank goodness no one was seriously hurt.

Creative Cause Mike Harrington

Giant's Causeway—Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer

The reviews of his debut seem to be divided between those who feel he’s simply not fast enough and is too one-paced and those who feel the San Vicente was an excellent prep in which he closed fast over a distance way too short for him. Being one-paced at seven furlongs when you’re bred to run all day is not a negative. Things have a way of changing dramatically at 1 ¼ miles and there is no quit in this horse. He will be coming at you regardless of the distance. It’s hard to knock his :35 flat final three-eighths and :11 4/5 final eighth. That’s not bad for a one-paced horse. Forget the three lead changes. He’s been beautiful with his lead changes; just refrain from using the whip on him trying to win a seven-furlong prep race. Lowering him to #3 was the result of what the other two did and not what he failed to do.

Sabercat Steve Asmussen

Bluegrass Cat—Miner's Blessing, by Forty Niner

Moving forward in his works, breezing five-eighths in 1:00 2/5. He’s going to be facing a tough field in San Felipe and basically just needs to show he’s competitive with these horses before moving on to the Santa Anita Derby for his big test. Just not a believer in bringing a horse back from 2 to 3 in such a tough spot. There’s no room for error and you may be asking him to do more than he’s ready to do, but I feel with his quick turn of foot and classy demeanor he still will be a major force come Derby Day. Whether you take the Delta Jackpot seriously or not, his race visually was one of the most impressive 2-year-old performances of the year. But he needs to show he’s fast enough to compete with the top contenders and not a lot of time to do it.

I'll Have Another Doug O’Neill

Flower Alley – Arch’s Gal Edith, by Arch

Worked a half in :48 3/5, as he prepares for the Santa Anita Derby off a two-month layoff. Speed figures playing a big part in skipping the San Felipe, as they’re afraid of a “bounce” after running a “4” on the Ragozin sheets. But who knows if a bounce isn’t a good thing at this point. If you run too fast too soon, get the bounce out of the way in a prep race. If he waits and runs another huge number in the Santa Anita Derby, then they have to be afraid of another bounce in the Kentucky Derby. But that’s all numbers jargon. Who knows, this could be the right way to go about it if they’re sure they can put a good foundation under him and have him ready to peak on Derby Day off one race in eight weeks. There’s just no room for any mistakes.

Out of Bounds Eoin Harty

Discreet Cat—Unbridled Elaine, by Unbridled's Song

Worked 5 furlongs in :59 4/5 for the San Felipe, where he’ll take on a field of classy horses. Considering his size and his room for improvement, there’s no telling how good he really is. He certainly doesn’t have to win, only move forward and set himself up for the Santa Anita Derby and then the Kentucky Derby. He’s coming off a big effort and the last thing he needs is an off-the-charts performance now. The horse he beat, Secret Circle, came back to win a division of the Southwest, and third-place finisher Longview Drive didn’t run as badly in the other division as it looks on paper. He’ll switch over to Godolphin colors from now on.

Fed Biz Bob Baffert

Giant’s Causeway—Spunoutacontrol, by Wild Again

Breezed 6 furlongs in a very un-Baffert-like 1:16 (7f in 1:28), as he was just given a lung opener. You can bet he’ll be razor sharp for wherever he shows up next. San Felipe would seem like the logical spot, as he’s 2-for-2 at Santa Anita. But Baffert always leaves his options open. Other than not changing leads until the wire in his last start and not having run yet in a stakes, he seems to be doing everything perfectly and is improving as rapidly as any 3-year-old out there. Zackn’mat, who he defeated two races back, ran an excellent second in Saturday’s Borderland Derby at Sunland against a very fast horse who loves that track. If there is a special horse waiting to bust out, this could very well be him.

Alpha Kiaran McLaughlin

Bernardini—Munnaya, by Nijinsky

Worked a half in :49 3/5. Their strategy is similar to I’ll Have Another’s, skipping the Gotham to wait for the Wood Memorial. But he has two distance races under him this year and a much stronger 2-year-old foundation. If everything goes smoothly, he should be on course to peak on Derby Day. McLaughlin has done a masterful job building foundations under Invasor for the BC Classic and Closing Argument for the Derby. All Alpha has to do is get faster in the Wood and then move forward again on May 5. He’ll be fresh for the Wood, so there’s no reason why he shouldn’t be good and sharp.

Hansen Mike Maker

Tapit—Stormy Sunday, by Sir Cat

Ready to make amends in the Gotham Stakes, not so much because of his defeat in the Holy Bull, but to prove he’s not one-dimensional. Yes, he appears to be committed to the lead, that’s who he is. But he can’t run off like he did at Gulfstream, even stumbling at the start. Owner feels he’s not getting the respect due a champion, but to get respect as a Kentucky Derby contender you have to show some semblance of adaptability and not expend so much energy early in the race. If he can accomplish that over a normally speed-favoring Big A inner track he’ll get all the respect that is due him. Hey, he’s the only horse to defeat Union Rags.

Gemologist Todd Pletcher

Tiznow—Crystal Shard, by Mr. Prospector

Stepping up his works, drilling five furlongs in a bullet 1:00 4/5 with Gotham hopeful Dan and Sheila. He is another on a two-race schedule, but WinStar has already gone that route successfully with Super Saver. He’ll likely debut in the Rebel Stakes, where the competition seems fairly light at this point after Baffert exposed the locals in the split Southwest. With Algorithms’ injury and Discreet Dancer disappointing at 4-5 in the Fountain of Youth, he very well may be Pletcher’s secret weapon, although there should be nothing secretive about an undefeated grade II winner by Tiznow.

Mark Valeski Larry Jones

Proud Citizen—Pocho’s Dream Girl, by Fortunate Prospect

What’s the Derby trail without Larry Jones? This colt ran a remarkable race stretching out from 6 furlongs in the Risen Star. Putting up such a fight against a seasoned, talented horse like El Padrino showed what he’s made of. No wonder why he’s been touted so strongly by Jones. What I like most about him is his tail-female family, which is the very best of C.V. Whitney. Third dam Silver True won the Spinaway and produced Suburban and Whitney winner Silver Buck, sire of Silver Charm. Fourth dam Silver Fog, by Mahmoud, is the dam of Hall of Famer Silver Spoon, winner of the Santa Anita Derby against the boys and eight other major stakes, and Silver Bright, winner of the Arlington Lassie and dam of State Dinner, winner of the Suburban, Met Mile, and Whitney.

Liaison Bob Baffert

Indian Charliee—Galloping Gal, by Victory Gallop

Loved his mile work in 1:43 enough to put him back on. Believe you can attribute his last race mainly to be being too keen early and failing to relax, while stuck down on the inside yet again. That work may have been just what he needed. He also showed a lot of athleticism staying on his feet in the Lewis after stumbling badly and unseating his rider. If this horse can finally get a clear trip outside horses and settle early he should return to the form he showed last year. He’s already proven he’s a classy, gutsy horse who does just what he has to. He’s probably even better than his winning margins indicate. Some have concerns about an Indian Charlie getting a classic distance, but he only needs to get him 1 1/8 miles, and his female family will carry him the rest of the way. This is the time to get a piece of him in any future wagers.

News Pending Dale Romans

Harlan’s Holiday—Motivated Sreva, by Lear Fan

Romans said over a month ago he was going to put him back on dirt and now he has himself another Derby horse along with Dullahan. Bold move putting him in this spot, but it paid off. After coming from far back in his last start to finish second on grass, he was razor-sharp in the Fountain of Youth, making a rather startling early move on the first turn to challenge for the lead and then racing 4-5 favorite Discreet Dancer into the ground after battling with him down the backstretch. After being passed by Union Rags, he drew clear of the others down the stretch to finish a clear-cut second, and was striding out like a fresh horse in the final yards. He has the refined look of a stayer and should keep moving forward. Dam won 11 of 43 starts and is a half-sister to Swale winner Adore the Gold. Third dam is a half-sister to multiple group/grade I winner Zoman, winner of the D.C. International. Also traces to La Troienne.

Knocking At The Door

Algorithms Todd Pletcher

Bernardini—Ava Knowsthecode, by Cryptoclearance

Can’t keep him in the Top 12 until we know the severity of his injury. Splint bone injuries can vary in recovery time, so we’ll just have to wait. Only keeping him here for this week until we know more. But even if it proves not to be serious this is a huge setback and has knocked him completely off his schedule. For a horse who has had only three career starts and has never been two turns, it would seem the Derby is a longshot. It’s a shame because we have no idea how good he is or how he would have fared in the Fountain of Youth. But he’s not out of the picture until they say he is.

Empire Way Mike Harrington

Empire Maker – Delta Princess, by A.P. Indy

Drilled six furlongs in 1:14 for either the San Felipe or Rebel, as Harrington will keep him and Creative Cause separated. Some believe he’s closing the gap on his stablemate, especially after his strong second in the Robert Lewis, but unlike Creative Cause he’s in need of graded earnings. Harrington says he feels there is a lot of improvement still to come. You can’t get a more illustrious pedigree, so we’ll just have to see where that takes him.

Castaway Bob Baffert

Street Sense – Priceless Storm, by Storm Cat

Yes, his stablemate, Secret Circle, ran a full second faster in his division of the Southwest and his Beyer was 10 points higher, but how fast you are at a mile in February does not necessarily indicate how fast you’re going to be at 1 ¼ miles in May, and his 92 Beyer was nothing to frown upon. From a visual standpoint, he was very impressive, and going into the race it appeared as if he was in the much stronger division; certainly the more accomplished and deeper division. Just liked the way he tracked the pace while settling beautifully after breaking from the 11-post, drew off with ease in the stretch, and was striding out in the final furlong. Tail-female family goes through Priceless Gem, conqueror of Buckpasser and dam of the great Allez France, Hall of Famer Searching, and the legendary La Troienne.

Dullahan Dale Romans

Even the Score—Mining My Own, by Smart Strike

Finally back on the work tab, breezing five furlongs in 1:01 4/5. Still like this colt a lot, but would have preferred to see him try the dirt one more time before the Derby instead of taking the safe grass--Polytrack route that has become popular the last few years. In his case it’s the Palm Beach and Blue Grass, where he’ll meet some very talented horses going the same route, including Exothermic and Howe Great. I liked him a great deal after the Breeders’ Futurity and even after the BC Juvenile and have a feeling I’ll be liking him again once he gets back in the starting gate.

Bodemeister Bob Baffert

Empire Maker—Untouched Talent, by Storm Cat

It’s been over two weeks since his last race, and waiting for him to get back on the work tab. He has shown he has a world of talent, but he’s playing catch-up with only two career starts. You rarely see a young 3-year-old run a :23 4/5 second quarter and proceed to run each subsequent quarter faster than the one before; and do it drawing off to a 9 ¼-length romp in 1:34 2/5, earning a 99 Beyer. And this was after being rushed up from the outside post. He obviously needs to get two races in him before the Derby, and even then, winning the Derby off four career starts is going to be tough. Only one horse, Big Brown, has done it with four starts or less since Exterminator in 1918.

Take Charge Indy Pat Byrne

A.P. Indy – Take Charge Lady, by Dehere

Good to see him back on the work tab, breezing five furlongs in 1:01 1/5. The Tampa Bay Derby would seem like a logical spot. That track is conducive to the big early move he made in his last start against El Padrino. We’ll just wait to see what Byrne has in store for him. This is another colt with a lot of room for improvement. He runs well on both dirt and Polytrack, so there are a number of directions in which he can go. But one would think he’ll stay on dirt. He has that big move in him, but needs to finish it off. Twice he’s opened clear leads and has gotten caught in the final furlong. But that’s just a matter of timing and maturity more than anything else.

Our Entourage Todd Pletcher

Street Cry – Sand Springs, by Dynaformer

Although his victorious 3-year-old debut was on grass and he has yet to win on dirt, he was beaten only two lengths in the Remsen, finishing right behind El Padrino. He also has failed to change leads on grass and Polytrack, but changed leads beautifully in the Remsen. He showed an excellent turn of foot when challenged in Saturday’s allowance race, even without changing leads. By the sire of Zenyatta, out of a mare by Barbaro’s sire Dynaformer, he has the Rasmussen Factor (RF), being inbred to Natalma, and also is inbred to Hoist the Flag, giving him three doses of Ribot, and to Hail to Reason through Roberto and Halo. He’ll likely try dirt next to see if he can make his way into the Derby.

Exothermic Rusty Arnold

Empire Maker – Irridescence, by Caesour

Even though it was different surfaces he still was flattered by the second-place finish of News Pending in the Fountain of Youth. Worked 5 furlongs in a bullet :58 4/5 at Palm Meadows in company inside the dogs. Palm Beach actually is shaping up as an intriguing Kentucky Derby prep, with him, Howe Great, and Dullahan. If this colt handles the dirt in the Derby the way he does the grass, and he should with his breeding, there’s no telling what he’s capable of. He demonstrated as explosive a turn of foot (very European-like) as we’ve seen all year and just bounds along with big, beautiful strides, which make it appear as if he’s leaping off the ground. His tail-female family is almost all South African, and his broodmare sire is out of a full-sister to one of the greatest iron horses of modern times, the indefatigable Jim French. He’s also inbred to the great Tom Fool through his classy daughters Dinner Partner and Mrs. Peterkin.

Zackn'mat Marty Jones

Northern Afleet – Pic Me for Fun, by Piccolino

He ran into the proverbial buzzsaw in Isn’t He Clever in the Borderland Derby. The winner has shown he loves Sunland Park, and this colt ran a huge race once he leveled off and got into his stride. But by then it was too late against a horse who had opened a big lead and came home his last sixteenth in :06 1/5. This is a consistent colt, who has closed fast to finish first or second at 6 furlongs, 7 furlongs, one mile, and 1 1/16 miles. And he’s shown he can run with classy horses, having finished second, beaten 1 ¾ lengths, to Fed Biz. Who is broodmare sire Piccolino you ask? He was bred by John Nerud and is by Fappiano, out of stakes-winning Mochila, a half-sister to Cozzene. Pic Me For Fun is inbred to Dr. Fager, so there is a great deal of Nerud’s influence in his pedigree.

Souper Speedy Tom Albertrani

Indian Charlie—Speed Succeeds, by Gone West

As of Sunday, he hadn’t worked since Feb. 14, so time to keep an eye on the work tab. Last work was a five-furlong breeze in 1:03 1/5. Not sure how far he’ll stay with his front-running style of running, but he is one tough horse on the lead, and he did finish ahead of El Padrino in the 1 1/8-mile Remsen. He’s not an easy horse to get by in the stretch, and we’ll just have to see if he can be as effective coming from off the pace.

Rounding out the Top 40 are Ever So Lucky, who is way behind now after missing the Hutcheson; Rousing Sermon, who also was disappointing in the Lewis; Z Dager, a solid enough third in the Risen Star; Dan and Sheila and Done Talking, who are headed to the Gotham; Secret Circle; Mr. Prankster, impressive winner of the WEBN Stakes and Turfway Prevue; the first two finishers in the Sam F. Davis, Battle Hardened and Prospective; My Adonis, who showed flashes of brilliance at 2 and made up 15 lengths in the Holy Bull to finish third; San Pedro winner Midnight Transfer, who worked a sharp 7f in 1:24 4/5 for the San Felipe; El Camino Real Derby winner Daddy Nose Best and runner-up Lucky Chappy; Sir Bond, an explosive maiden winner at Fair Grounds for Neil Howard who worked a half in :48 3/5 Sunday; three more Pletcher horses, Ender Knievel, an impressive allowance winner who likely is headed for the Sunland Derby; Spring Hill Farm, who made it two-for-two with a mile allowance score at Gulfstream two weeks ago; and Windsurfer, who ran a super race breaking his maiden after going wide every step of the way; Consortium, also heading for the Gotham; and grass specialist Howe Great, another grass horse who is pointing for the Palm Beach and then Blue Grass.

Other names to watch are the Borderland Derby winner Isn’t He Clever; well accomplished maiden Brother Francis, who is back working; Scatman, game second to Secret Circle in Southwest division; Street Life, who ran an awesome race at Aqueduct; impressive allowance winner Politcallycorrect; Well Armed’s full-brother Arm Force; Gulfstream Derby winner Reveron, the powerful stretch runner Najjaar, who was scratched out of an allowance race last Friday; Hopeful winner Currency Swap, Went the Day Well, a big stretch runner who should show huge improvement next time out in the Gotham; and Union Rags’ stablemate Teeth of the Dog.

In Action Last Week

Isn’t He Clever showed that two turns is well within his scope by winning the Borderland Derby by 1 ¾ lengths over his favorite track. Runner-up Zackn’mat finished 10 lengths ahead of the third horse. New York-bred The Lumber Guy, a son of Grand Slam, made it two romps in as many starts by wiring the field in the seven-furlong Miracle Wood Stakes at Laurel, winning under a hand ride by 4 ¼ lengths in 1:23 1/5. We’ll see if he continues to stretch out or point for the Bay Shore. Ken Ramsey is back again, this time with the impressive allowance winner Politicallycorrect, a dirt-loving Kitten Joy who drew off to a 3 ¼-length score at Gulfstream, covering the seven panels in 1:22 2/5 after a dismal effort in the Gulfstream Park Derby. Well Armed’s full-brother Arm Force showed huge improvement with blinkers added, breaking his maiden by 3 ¾ lengths in 1:23 after pressing a :45 half. Eoin Harty and Bill Casner look like they have a good one. Taylors Deal, a former $25,000 claimer bred in British Columbia, made it two in a row, winning the Turf Paradise Derby by 2 ¼ lengths. Ismael Grande came from off the pace to score by 1 ¼ lengths in a one-mile Oaklawn allowance race, defeating favored Zoebear. Kid Sidney, a son of Lemon Drop Kid, won a 1 1/16-mile maiden race at Oaklawn by a head at 11-1 for Jinks Fires.

Derby Dozen (video) - February 20, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

2012-02-21T00:26:00Z

Creative Cause Mike Harrington

Giant's Causeway—Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer

Have mixed feelings about his third in San Vicente, but mostly good, such as coming home in :35 flat and :11 4/5 for final eighth, finding his best stride late and galloping out very strong. But he did change leads three times in the stretch. He twice jumped over to his left lead after shying from a right-handed whip and swerving in slightly. He’s only been hit one time in five races and has never been hit in his three victories. Don’t know why Rosario started hitting him left-handed so early in a 7f prep. Colt is very smooth and quick with his lead changes and it looked as if he was merely reacting to the whip. Leaving him on top for now based on the positives. All in all, it was an excellent first-out prep at a distance too short for him. Rebel or San Felipe is next.

Union Rags Michael Matz

Dixie Union—Tempo, by Gone West

Breezed a half in :48 4/5 for his much-awaited debut in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. A victory is not essential by any means, as long as he runs well and keeps a straight course in the stretch. This is a tough spot first time back. Algorithms, the horse to beat, has a two-race head start on him with starts in December and January, but he has a much stronger 2-year-old foundation. He loses Castellano, but picks up worthy replacement in Leparoux.

Algorithms Todd Pletcher

Bernardini—Ava Knowsthecode, by Cryptoclearance

Now that he’s knocked off Hansen, he sets his sights on Union Rags in his attempt to blitz the 1.2 finishers of the BC Juvenile and stand alone atop the leading contenders list. This is an important step, as he tries two turns for the first time. Castellano sticking with him over Union Rags certainly doesn’t hurt and if he keeps on moving forward going two turns there’s no telling what we’re dealing with.

El Padrino Todd Pletcher

Pulpit—Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway

He may be the most solid of all of Pletcher’s Derby horses and the most suited for 1 ¼ miles. Most of the talk has been about Algorithms, but his win on the same card was equally as impressive and he has more of a foundation. He has tremendous upside and the colt he defeated, Take Charge Indy, is a serious Derby contender in his own right. Can’t wait to see how he does in the Risen Star.

I'll Have Another Doug O’Neill

Flower Alley – Arch’s Gal Edith, by Arch

The more I watch the Lewis the more legitimate he looks. He has it all – tactical speed, stamina, and a great deal of room for improvement. Jumping gate tracks and swerving in showed he’s observant and was a good learning experience. It does a young inexperienced horse good to expose him to distractions to prepare him for anything he may encounter. Did all three favorites, all previously consistent horses, run badly or did he just run too fast for them? They’re skipping the San Felipe because he ran a monster “4” Ragozin number and is a likely bounce next time, so giving him extra time. But nothing wrong with regression, then moving forward again in the Santa Anita Derby. Time will tell if layoff now is a good idea.

Out of Bounds Eoin Harty

Discreet Cat—Unbridled Elaine, by Unbridled's Song

He’ll get a huge class test in the San Felipe against several proven stakes horses. This is his meat-in-the-sandwich race and he doesn’t need to do anything spectacular with a big effort behind him and the Santa Anita Derby still to be run. Received a form boost when Sham runner-up Secret Circle won a division of the Southwest, but third-place finisher Longview Drive didn’t fare too well in the other division.

Sabercat Steve Asmussen

Bluegrass Cat—Miner's Blessing, by Forty Niner

Continuing to show progress, breezing five furlongs in 1:01 4/5 for his debut in the San Felipe. Like Union Rags, he’s facing a tough task against some seasoned, classy horses and only needs to get a good solid race in him and show he can be competitive against horses of this caliber. If he can duplicate his quick-fire turn of foot from last year he would have to be considered one of the leading contenders. Lowering him slightly only because of the length of time we have to wait for his debut, but still believe he’s the sleeper and is better than most people think.

Gemologist Todd Pletcher

Tiznow—Crystal Shard, by Mr. Prospector

Breezed an easy five furlongs in 1:03 4/5. No one talks about him much with all these other Pletcher pugilists knocking out their opponents every week. He’ll likely attempt to get back in the spotlight in the Rebel Stakes, but will have to contend with some dangerous California horses. Locals don’t appear to be that formidable.

Hansen Mike Maker

Tapit—Stormy Sunday, by Sir Cat

Well, it looks as if he’ll have to go to the post in the Gotham dressed only in his natural white attire. No frills, no paint jobs, just those long legs that have outrun all his opponents but one. But now it’s time to harness some of that speed. If the Big A inner track is playing to its usual form he’s going to be very hard to catch, assuming he doesn’t throw in any of those ridiculous :22 second quarters.

Alpha Kiaran McLaughlin

Bernardini—Munnaya, by Nijinsky

With two stakes victories already this year, McLaughlin has the luxury of skipping the Gotham, which he will take advantage of. He just has to hope there are no bumps in the road leading up to the Wood, because there are no alternate routes. McLaughlin has done a masterful job on several occasions building foundations under horses who had lost some time, and he already has built a solid foundation at 2 and 3 under Alpha.

Discreet Dancer Todd Pletcher

Discreet Cat—West Side Dancer, by Gone West

Turned in another sharp work, breezing a bullet five furlongs in company in 1:00 1/5. With only two career starts, does anyone really know what to expect from him in the Fountain of Youth? This will be a huge jump in class, but with his natural talent and the way he’s been working, he’s capable of anything.

Fed Biz Bob Baffert

Giant’s Causeway—Spunoutacontrol, by Wild Again

Say hello to this year’s early wise guy horse, as his bandwagon is filling up fast. As good as he looked in his allowance victory it may be a bandwagon worth getting on. He’s enormously talented and should only keep improving. Unlike several more accomplished Baffert runners this year he is going to keep getting better as the distances stretch out. Very tempted to rank him higher, but can’t justify lowering any of those above him. Cannot wait for his next start, and expect him to catapult up the list.

Knocking At The Door

Bodemeister Bob Baffert

Empire Maker—Untouched Talent, by Storm Cat

Like Discreet Dancer he has a world of talent, but is playing catch-up with only two career starts. You rarely see a young 3-year-old run a :23 4/5 second quarter and proceed to run each subsequent quarter faster than the one before; and do it drawing off to a 9 ¼-length romp in 1:34 2/5, earning a 99 Beyer. And this was after being rushed up from the outside post. He seems to be very professional, but his sheer brilliance caught everyone by surprise.

Empire Way Mike Harrington

Empire Maker – Delta Princess, by A.P. Indy

Some believe he’s closing the gap on stablemate Creative Cause, but he still has a lot to prove. Harrington says he feels there is a lot of improvement still to come. He doesn’t want to risk Creative Cause costing him much-needed graded earnings, so he’ll split them up, sending one to the Rebel and one to the San Felipe.

Liaison Bob Baffert

Indian Charlie – Galloping Gal, by Victory Gallo

No reason not to give him another chance and hope he settles early better than he did in the Robert Lewis. Still would like to see him get a clear trip and not be stuck down on the inside. He obviously has talent and has shown his courage under fire. But as Jerry Seinfeld would say, he still has one big matzo ball hanging out there in that Lewis performance.

Dullahan Dale Romans

Even the Score—Mining My Own, by Smart Strike

Exothermic Rusty Arnold

Empire Maker – Irridescence, by Caesour

If this colt handles the dirt the way he does the grass, and he should with his breeding, there’s no telling how good he could be. He demonstrated as explosive a turn of foot (very European-like) as we’ve seen all year and just bounds along with big, beautiful strides, which make it appear as if he’s leaping off the ground. If you want toughness, his tail-female family is almost all South African, and his broodmare sire is out of a full-sister to one of the greatest iron horses of modern times, the indefatigable Jim French. He’s also inbred to the great Tom Fool through his classy daughters Dinner Partner and Mrs. Peterkin. They’ll try to emulate Animal Kingdom by attempting to win the Derby in his dirt debut, following starts in the Palm Beach and Blue Grass.

Take Charge Indy Pat Byrne

A.P. Indy – Take Charge Lady, by Dehere

He could surprise some people in the Fountain of Youth if they go in that direction, but certainly doesn’t need to win to move forward. This is another colt with a lot of room for improvement. His first start back against El Padrino was an excellent debut, as he separated himself from the field with a huge early move and, although caught by a top-class colt, left a lot in the tank. As he showed in that race and in the Arlington-Washington Futurity, he just needs to finish off his moves, which will come with experience. His fifth-place finish in the BC Juvenile at 25-1 was very solid.

Souper Speedy Tom Albertrani

Indian Charlie—Speed Succeeds, by Gone West

Breezed five furlongs in 1:03 1/5. Time to start cranking him up. Not sure how far he’ll stay with his front-running style of running, but he is one tough horse on the lead, and he did finish ahead of El Padrino in the 1 1/8-mile Remsen. He’s not an easy horse to get by in the stretch, and we’ll just have to see if he can be as effective coming from off the pace.

Ever So Lucky Jonathan Sheppard

Indian Charlie—Bally Storm, by Summer Squall

Missing the Hutcheson may not seem like much, but it was huge in our opinion. Instead of having a good sprint sharpener, followed by a pair of two-turn races, he now will have to sprint in the Swale and have only one two-turn prep. For a horse with a suspect pedigree and only four career starts before the Derby that is asking an awful lot. If Sheppard feels he’s not up to it he’ll be the first to give up the chase. We’ll see if he changes plans between now and then.

Rounding out the Top 35 are Rousing Sermon, who also was disappointing in the Lewis, and definitely deserves another shot; Mr. Bowling, Z Dager, Shared Property, and Dan and Sheila, the first four finishers in the Lecomte; Southwest winners Castaway and Secret Circle; Mr. Prankster, impressive winner of the WEBN Stakes and Turfway Prevue; the first two finishers in the Sam F. Davis, Battle Hardened and Prospective; My Adonis, who showed flashes of brilliance at 2 and made up 15 lengths in the Holy Bull to finish third; San Pedro winner Midnight Transfer, who worked a sharp 5f in :59 2/5; El Camino Real Derby winner Daddy Nose Best; three more Pletcher horses, Ender Knievel, an impressive allowance winner who likely is headed for the Sunland Derby, Spring Hill Farm, who made it two-for-two with a mile allowance score at Gulfstream two weeks ago; and Windsurfer, who ran a super race breaking his maiden after going wide every step of the way; Zackn’mat a dark horse to keep an eye on; the exciting maiden winner Street Life, who ran an awesome race at Aqueduct; and we’ll give Casual Trick, Consortium, and Sky Kingdom another shot after their respective debacles.

Other names to watch are the well accomplished maiden Brother Francis, who is back working; Scatman, game second to Secret Circle in Southwest division; Gulfstream Derby winner Reveron, Iroquois winner Motor City, Optimizer, the powerful stretch runner Najjaar, Hopeful winner Currency Swap, Went the Day Well, a big stretch runner who should show huge improvement next time out; News Pending, and Teeth of the Dog.

In Action Last Week

Although Castaway looked more like a Derby horse than Secret Circle in their respective Southwest divisions, the latter did run a full second faster, and has the pedigree to stretch out. He just hasn’t shown any signs yet that he wants to. But he at least has a two-turn victory to his credit and fires every race. Castaway did win from the 11-post, which boosted his performance even more, and he just seems to be getting good now. Will we have a Godolphin – Coolmore showdown in the Derby? Scatman was super game battling back against Secret Circle to be beaten a half-length and Adirondack King, in his first two-turn start, made a strong move around horses on the turn, but couldn’t sustain it, finishing a clear-cut third in a good effort. The El Camino Real Derby proved to be nothing more than an exciting race decided by two grass horses, Daddy Nose Best and Lucky Chappy on the Tapeta surface, but Daddy Nose Best showed a lot of guts, and he is by a Florida Derby winner, out of a mare by a Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby winner, so his pedigree shouldn’t stop him from transferring his form to the dirt. It’s difficult getting any kind of gauge on a horse’s Derby chances when they run on Tapeta or any synthetic surface. The most eye-catching performance of the weekend belongs to the Pletcher-trained Windsurfer, who raced wide on both turns and every step in between in a 1 1/16-mile maiden race at Gulfstream and still won going away, coming home in solid fractions and striding out beautifully as if he wants to go on. His pedigree is pretty speed-oriented and not exactly inundated with top-class stallions, but his sire Speightstown has shown he’s capable of getting a horse like Haynesfield, winner of the Jockey Club Gold Cup and Suburban Handicap. This was one of the more impressive performances of the year. Drill, winner of the Del Mar Futurity, had gone off form since his Norfolk second to Creative Cause, but he bounced back with a narrow victory in the San Vicente over a gutsy American Act. Baffert has a lot of action going on with his 3-year-olds and likely will keep him at one-turn, where there are plenty of opportunities for him. Sticking with Baffert, although Paynter won’t, or I should say shouldn’t, make the Derby, with only one 5 ½-furlong race under him, he looked freaky in his career debut and isn’t even bred to run short. He looks like he could be something special.