Steve Haskin's Derby Dozen

Derby Dozen - May 5, 2020 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Michelle Benson — Tue, 05 May 2020 16:56:00 GMT

Despite the Derby Day assault by the Baffert Brigade, he holds on to the No. 1 spot as we head into the makeshift spring schedule beginning with the Matt Winn Stakes (G3) May 23. Whenever stakes are carded, such as this year’s version of the Belmont Stakes (G1), he will be ready, having remained in steady training, breezing five furlongs in 1:01 2/5. I love the way he cut the corner and hugged the rail down the stretch, doing everything on his own. This colt simply has no flaws. He remains the most complete package, although the domination by California shippers at Oaklawn May 2 is something to consider when assessing these 3-year-olds. Right now he looks like the only Easterner who has a big chance to repel the California challenge when you consider that Authentic and Honor A P are still waiting in the wings. In short, he is the one horse who has no question marks and is the most likely to stand in the way of another Baffert bonanza.

Nadal Bob Baffert

Blame—Ascending Angel, by Pulpit

He gets the nod over Charlatan because he was a bit more professional in the split Arkansas Derby (G1), beat a more talented and deeper field, did it from off the pace, and has a much stronger pedigree for 1 1/4 miles. What was most impressive was the acceleration he showed inside the eighth pole when hit right-handed after King Guillermo began to close in on him. Baffert’s workout regimen of breaking him far behind his workmates and not asking him until well into the stretch apparently paid off and he was able to settle beautifully off the pace for the first time in his career and merely cruised by the TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby (G2) winner Wells Bayou nearing the head of the stretch. This was a dramatic turnaround, as we saw him morph into a Derby horse. His previous running style was a complete contradiction to his pedigree. It did take him about eight strides to change leads, but other than that this was a flawless performance. I needed to see what I saw and am now a believer.

Charlatan Bob Baffert

Speightstown—Authenticity , by Quiet American

His Arkansas Derby romp was a thing of beauty and stamped him as an extraordinary talent with a limitless future. The reason he is behind Nadal is that he had everything go his way, from barely getting in the race, drawing into the weaker division, breaking from the rail, having the only other speed horse scratch, and totally controlling the race with no one putting any pressure on him. He also came home his final eighth two-fifths of a second slower than Nadal off fairly similar fractions and was being ridden aggressively through the stretch, getting hit five times left-handed even after opening a big lead. He doesn’t have great extension, but is extremely light on his feet and just glides over the ground. His pedigree is a bit enigmatic. His sire was a pure sprinter but has sired several major stakes winners at 1 1/4 miles and his broodmare sire was basically a miler, but did sire a horse who came within a nose of sweeping the Triple Crown and is closely inbred (2x3) to the great Dr. Fager. He certainly looks like another who will carry his speed longer distances.

Honor A. P. John Shirreffs

Honor Code—Hollywood Story, by Wild Rush

Not only he did work five furlongs in a bullet 1:00, it was the fastest of 75 works at the distance. He picked up unscheduled company from another horse working a half with jockey Kenny Black aboard who got his head in front. Black told Shirreffs he was on a very fast horse. That forced Honor A.P. to keep to the task at hand, and as Shirreffs said, put him in a competitive mode. Shirreffs better hope Santa Anita opens soon and there is a race for him fairly quickly. Right now, this is a bulldozer of a horse, but by September he should be finely tuned; more streamlined and with quicker pickup. He does everything professionally, runs straight, and has no apparent quirks. He just needs to race and likely will take on Authentic again, this time hoping for some competition up front.

Authentic Bob Baffert

Into Mischief—Flawless, by Mr. Greeley

He still may very well be the best of the Bafferts, but right now you have to give the edge to the ‘now’ horses who both took a huge step forward and who have traveled cross country to win. Like Charlatan, he still has to show what he can do under pressure and if he can rate off the lead. But also like Charlatan he has such an easy-going stride he is anything but speed-crazy. And he and Charlatan still have to overcome a pedigree more geared toward speed and middle distances. But as mentioned earlier, they both look and move like stayers, and there is no reason to think they can’t continue to stretch out that speed even farther. With Santa Anita possibly opening soon, Baffert is cranking him back up, working him five furlongs in 1:00 2/5. Right now, Baffert has three extremely gifted colts, but in the same race they could easily compromise each other’s chances, so for the next four months the catchword in the Baffert barn is versatility. Get these three as far away from each other as possible or Baffert could have too much of a good thing.

Sole Volante Patrick Biancone

Karakontie—Light Blow, by Kingmambo

Despite his inactivity and his best races being at Tampa Bay Downs, I am still very high on him. I just love what I’ve seen from him visually. With the Derby still four months away, Biancone feels there is no point in rushing him. He hasn’t worked since March 15, but has been galloping every day at Palm Meadows and Biancone said he has had an excellent month of training. He is waiting for the upcoming stakes books to come out, mainly at Santa Anita and Churchill Downs, and then will plan a schedule to have him at the top of his game in September. For now he is just being patient. With so much early speed dominating the big races, he is the one closer who looks to have the early move to get in striking position and the powerful stretch kick to run horses down. He has a quick-footed stride that can put him in contention in a flash. And I love his pedigree. Right now he still would be my main future book bet.

King Guillermo Juan Avila

Uncle Mo—Slow Sand, by Dixieland Band

Although he wasn’t as sharp as he was at Tampa Bay Downs and was under pressure early, he did show that he was capable of running a big race away from Tampa and I really liked the way he was striding out in the final furlong of the Arkansas Derby behind Nadal, who did open up on him in the final furlong. In this race he had to do a lot more chasing and had to run harder to keep up with some talented horses. He did look for an instant like he was gaining on Nadal, but the winner found another gear, while he ran steady to the wire. But he wasn’t tiring and likely should keep improving. While I would have liked to seen a little more acceleration on the turn, his grinding style combined with his stamina-oriented pedigree should serve him well going a mile and a quarter.

Maxfield Brendan Walsh

Street Sense—Velvety, by Bernardini

I can’t remember having a horse jump around the Top 12 so much, but that is what happens when you’re dealing with a horse that hasn’t run yet and we’re already in May. And he hasn’t run in eight months after undergoing surgery and has had only two lifetime starts. So frankly no one can know for sure what to expect when he returns. I did love his six-furlong work in 1:13 1/5 at Keeneland, indicating he is sitting on a big race for his return, which is likely to come in the May 23 Matt Winn Stakes (G3). As I have been saying, if he can return and demonstrate that same explosive turn of foot that won him the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity (G1), and do it against top-class stakes horses, then we know this is the weapon he will employ when he takes on the Big Bad Blazing Bafferts on Sept. 5.

Ete Indien Patrick Biancone

Summer Front—East India, by Mizzen Mast

It’s time to bring him back into the mix. His third-place finish in the Curlin Florida Derby (G1) was disappointing in that he went head and head and got outrun for second by a horse that had been sprinting. But you can’t ignore his three consecutive triple-digit Brisnet speed figures before that and his 8 1/2-length romp in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and second to Tiz the Law in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3). But there is way too much speed on the Derby trail this year to consider him a major threat unless Biancone can get him to settle off the pace and wait to strike like Nadal did at Oaklawn Park.

Gouverneur Morris Todd Pletcher

Constitution—Addison Run, by Unbridled's Song

The only chance he had to be competitive against Charlatan was to sit right off him and use his grinding style to keep plugging away. But once again he was back in fifth stuck between horses, and he just doesn’t have the turn of foot to get into contention once he’s clear, especially if there is a fast, classy horse loose on the lead. He was under a hard ride on the far turn and wasn’t going anywhere, but he did keep coming and just missed second by a neck. He’s probably not quite as talented as I thought he was last year, but I can’t give up on him until he gets the kind of trip I believe he wants. He doesn’t have the stretch kick to catch top horses or pull away from top horses, so he needs to be right there at the top of the stretch and have a clear outside trip to put him in position to grind horses down.

Major Fed Greg Foley

Ghostzapper—Bobby's Babe, by Smart Strike

I’ve been on his bandwagon for so long, since he broke his maiden, I have to keep him in the final Derby Dozen. He is improving, he’s versatile and adaptable, and he has as strong a pedigree as you will find. I thought he ran a remarkable race in the Louisiana Derby, dropping far back to last in the 14-horse field and then putting in a powerful wide run, getting bumped twice in the stretch, and still rallying to finish fourth, just missing catching Modernist for third. Considering that was only his fourth career start and he usually runs about three lengths off the lead, this was a very impressive performance. With his pedigree, he is going to relish a mile and a quarter. He is scheduled to work this week, then ship to Churchill Downs and run in the Matt Winn Stakes, where he could face Maxfield among others needing a race.

Modernist Bill Mott

Uncle Mo—Symbolic Gesture, by Bernardini

As well as he’s run this year he is one horse who should be much improved come September, He broke his maiden at a mile and an eighth over a dead Aqueduct strip before pulling off a 12-1 upset of a division of the Risen Star Stakes Presented by Lamarque Ford (G2). He was five-wide breaking from the 14-post in the Louisiana Derby and was wide turning for home, but still ran a respectable third. He is a big bruiser of colt who will be much more polished later in the year, especially with his stamina-laden pedigree top and bottom. And wouldn’t Mott love to win the Derby on the track instead of the stewards’ office.

KNOCKING ON THE DOOR

We had a couple of interesting races on the Arkansas Derby undercard. The California, and especially the Charlatan, form was boosted again when RUSHIE, coming off a 10 1/4-length drubbing at the hands of the Bob Baffert colt, captured a 1 1/16-mile allowance optional claimer by 1 1/4 lengths over Fountain of Youth Stakes runner-up CANDY TYCOON, who rebounded after getting beat 21 3/4 lengths in the Florida Derby following a rough trip.

Also, in a 1 1/8-mile maiden race, the Nick Zito-trained HUNT THE FRONT, who we wrote about extensively a couple of weeks ago, put in another explosive move from far back to finally break his maiden over 6-5 favorite FRIAR’S ROAD following three powerful second-place finishes. Now that he has broken his maiden, keep an eye on him in stakes company. This son of Revolutionary has a spectacular turn of foot and makes up a lot of ground quickly. With his running style, he could be an exciting horse to watch throughout the spring and summer.

Hunt the Front is one of several new faces to watch come September, along with PNEUMATIC, DR POST, MYSTIC GUIDE, SONNEMAN, and MONEY MOVES. Don’t think because you’re not familiar with these late bloomers, all of whom have been written about in great detail the past few weeks, they won’t be major players by the time the Derby rolls around on Labor Day weekend.

Pneumatic worked five furlongs in 1:01 2/5 at Fair Grounds, Dr Post just scored an impressive allowance victory, Mystic Guide breezed a half in :48 3/5 at Fair Hill, Sonneman had an easy half-mile breeze in :50 2/5 at Gulfstream Park, and Money Moves has not worked since April 18. Keep a close eye on all these horses.

Another race of interest over the weekend was the three-length wire-to-wire victory of SUPERFECTO, a well-bred son of Constitution, out of a Ghostzapper mare, trained by Ralph Nix. Superfecto and runner-up HARD LIGHTING were coming out of well-beaten sixth- and fifth-places finishes, respectively, behind the aforementioned Dr Post in his maiden victory.

A couple of names you might have forgotten due to inactivity are MAX PLAYER, who hasn’t run since winning the Withers Stakes (G3) way back on Feb. 1. The son of Honor Code has been working six and seven furlongs steadily and most recently worked seven furlongs in a sharp 1:26 1/5 at Belmont Park, as he and trainer Linda Rice wait patiently for Belmont Park to open and possible date for the Wood Memorial (G2) or even a revamped Belmont Stakes (G1). With speed and more speed dominating the Derby trail, he would be a welcome addition with his big closing kick.

If you’re looking for competition for Authentic and Honor A.P. in the Santa Anita Derby, when and if that is ever run, don’t overlook the Richard Mandella-trained TIZAMAGICIAN, who was second to Honor A.P. in a maiden race, broke his maiden impressively going a mile, and most recently was beaten 1 3/4 lengths in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G2). He was scheduled to run in the UAE Derby (G2), but that race was canceled. He has been working sharply, and in his last work turned in a bullet six-furlong drill in 1:12 3/5, fastest of 17 works at the distance. Perhaps by September this will be the horse to help Mandella forget the disappointment of Omaha Beach last year. He certainly is bred to relish the mile and a quarter with Tiznow on top and Dixie Union and Pleasant Colony on bottom. I’ll bet you can get monster future book odds on him.

With all the Baffert 3-year-olds scurrying about all over the country, the one who has been living in complete anonymity is the El Camino Real Derby winner AZUL COAST, who was second to stablemate Authentic in the Sham Stakes (G3) and has been working his little tail off. Since his designated target, the Sunland Derby (G3), was canceled he has been all revved up with no place to go. The son of Super Saver has turned in six-furlong works of 1:12 3/5 and 1:13 3/5 and five-furlong works in 1:00 flat and 1:00 3/5.

One horse I wouldn’t give up on is the LeComte Stakes (G3) winner ENFORCEABLE, who closed well in defeat in the Risen Star Stakes (G2) and Louisiana Derby (G2). A veteran of nine lifetime starts, seven of them two-turn races, he can afford to take it easy for a while before re-embarking on the Derby trail. He is still active, breezing a half in: 49 1/5 at trainer Mark Casse’s training center in Florida.

Todd Pletcher has had his ups and downs on the Derby trail this year, mostly downs. One of those downs was the horrendous 14th-place finish by PORTOS in the Louisiana Derby. But for the Withers third-place finisher that race was way too bad to be true. This is a horse that has already had four 1 1/8-mile races and broke his maiden by 10 3/4 lengths going nine furlongs. If you are looking to throw that last race out, be aware that he has trained brilliantly since his debacle at Fair Grounds, in which he merely ran around the track after having to steady early. You rarely see Pletcher horses working fast times, but his last two half-mile works were in :47 4/5 and :47 3/5, so it will be interesting to see how he fares next time out.

Another horse looking to bounce back from a dismal performance is AMERICAN THEOREM, who has turned in some of the best works we’ve seen all year. The runner-up of the American Pharoah Stakes (G1) last fall stopped to walk after chasing Nadal in the Rebel Stakes, beaten over 27 lengths, But he’s been tearing up the track in the mornings at Santa Anita since then, including a brilliant five-furlong work in :58 3/5 on April 17. But he hasn’t worked since then, so with a move that fast, keep an eye on the worktab to see if he shows up.

Remember GREEN LIGHT GO? Well, he’s still around, breezing five furlongs in 1:01 3/5. He is a talented horse who hasn’t had the best of trips, but there is a question whether or not he is geared for a race like the Derby. We’ll see in which direction Jimmy Jerkens goes with him.

I am aware there are many horses I didn’t mention, but space is limited and I wanted to catch up on horses I haven’t talked about much all year who have worked this week.

To conclude, I can only quote the one and only Porky Pig: “That’s all folks.” Enjoy the rest of this crazy Derby trail with lots of big prep races still to come, and good luck sorting through all these horses leading up to Sept. 5. It’s been a wild ride and I thank everyone for your participation.

Derby Dozen - April 28, 2020 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Blood-Horse Staff — Tue, 28 Apr 2020 15:10:00 GMT

Tiz the Law Barclay Tagg

Constitution—Tizfiz, by Tiznow

Derby horses normally are geared up to peak on the first Saturday in May and no horse would have been ready for a peak performance more than this horse, who would have gone into the Derby checking off every box. Now, no one really knows for sure where he'll be 3-4 months from now after letting down and then having to gear back up again. With Derby Dozen winding down, I can say in all certainty that no horse has come even close to taking the No. 1 spot away from him. He remains in steady training, breezing a half in :49 3/5.

King Guillermo Juan Avila

Uncle Mo—Slow Sand, by Dixieland Band

I am moving him way up in anticipation of a huge effort in the Arkansas Derby (G1). All signs point to him being sharp and fit and ready to run a corker. I also moved him up over the others because the Arkansas Derby is an important race, serving as a much-needed bridge between the winter and summer to help him keep his form. He did draw into the tougher division on paper and if he can still live up to expectations and defeat these horses, then the sky’s the limit and he will be the first horse to possibly challenge Tiz the Law for the top spot. He should be stalking the leaders and we’ll see if he can turn it on like he did at Tampa.

Maxfield Brendan Walsh

Street Sense—Velvety, by Bernardini

No horse would appreciate a return to racing in Kentucky more than him, as indicated by his five-furlong work at Keeneland in a sharp 1:00 2/5. All we need to see from him after all these months is if that explosive turn of foot is still there and if he can sustain it. Just don't expect too many fireworks first time out. The acceleration is the key. With him it is all about where he will be this summer and on Sept. 5. The only question he has to answer right now is if he still has the same weapons he did last year.

Authentic Bob Baffert

Into Mischief—Flawless, by Mr. Greeley

Thank goodness this is the last time I have to try to figure out what to say about him, so I will just reiterate that the brilliance, the talent, and the visuals are all there. But with a pedigree that doesn't exactly shout a mile and a quarter and having shown only one style of running, he needs to use this time off and perfect that long effortless stride of his. And that is what he has going for him and what he will need to get that extra eighth of a mile. He went from being the Santa Anita Derby (G1) favorite to taking an unexpected vacation courtesy of the Los Angeles County Department of Health. As a late foal, this at least will give him time to mature and grow and work on whatever quirks he has shown in the past. He returned to the work tab just to stretch his legs, breezing an easy half in :51 1/5.

Sole Volante Patrick Biancone

Karakontie—Light Blow, by Kingmambo

It’s too bad Biancone decided to pass the Arkansas Derby because both divisions look as if they should have a fast pace, especially the second division with the top choices all eyeballing each other. Even in the first division he likely would have blown by most of these horses and would have been just fine with a second to Charlatan if the favorite got loose on the lead and didn’t come back. With his running style, he won’t get many opportunities like this one with such fast horses dictating the pace. So all he can do now is hope for a Churchill Downs opening in the not too distant future. I still love what I’ve seen so far.

Gouverneur Morris Todd Pletcher

Constitution—Addison Run, by Unbridled's Song

This is the day of enlightenment for him, as we finally get to see him at his best, with the experience and foundation he might have lacked earlier. Once again, he doesn’t need to win to prove himself. He drew in against Charlatan, who breaks from the rail and will be the controlling speed. If Charlatan opens up and proves too tough to catch so be it. He just needs to track him and be close at the finish, coming home with good energy. But we still don’t know how good he is coming off a bad trip in the Curlin Florida Derby (G1). If he is as good as I think he is I certainly would not be surprised if he won. It is just about strategy. Do you press the lightly raced Charlatan and hope he cracks or do you play it safe and chase him and make sure you don't cost yourself second? I don't see him letting Charlatan get too comfortable out there.

Honor A. P. John Shirreffs

Honor Code—Hollywood Story, by Wild Rush

The only reason he dropped a few places is because we are giving preference to horses running in the Arkansas Derby and we have no idea when he will be able run next. After everything is sorted out this weekend he likely will move back up. Shirreffs continues to work him long, as if he is hoping for a race in the near future. In his latest work, he looked good visually, but with his stride, you can never tell how fast he's going. This time he looked like he was going slow and actually was, breezing his seven furlongs in a leisurely 1:31 on a loose rein down the stretch. All I know for sure is that he needs a race.

Charlatan Bob Baffert

Speightstown—Authenticity , by Quiet American

Talent-wise and speed rating-wise he towers above the others in his division, but still hasn’t been tested for class. You know he is going to come busting out of there from the rail and looks as if he will have complete control of the pace. Although it puts him in the proverbial driver's seat, from the standpoint of the Kentucky Derby the last thing you want to see is for him to inherit an easy lead and just cruise around there. We will learn nothing from that. We already know he is deadly on the lead and this is not exactly a tough spot for a horse with two career starts and coming off an allowance victory to jump into a grade 1 stakes. At some point it is hoped we will see what he is capable of coming from off the pace. For now, he has the rail and you have to figure he will take advantage of it.

Nadal Bob Baffert

Blame—Ascending Angel, by Pulpit

Interesting that the ownership of Charlatan has a speed horse in the Arkansas Derby who really doesn’t seem to belong, Saratogian, and he breaks inside speedsters Nadal and Wells Bayou, and might been the one to assure a split race. What a perfect opportunity for Nadal to show he can rate off the pace. If he does and wins he also is right up there for No. 1. Sure he can try to outrun Wells Bayou and the pace pressers; we know he is fast enough to do so. But the way Baffert has been working him way behind his workmates and not making his move until the final eighth, it would seem a waste not to try those tactics in here. All he needs right now is to allow his stamina-laden pedigree a chance to come out and make him look a Derby horse.

Farmington Road Todd Pletcher

Quality Road—Silver La Belle, by Langfuhr

Well, what do you know, he drew an outside post again. I hope this time the rider (back to Javier Castellano) eases him inside and not darts sharply across the track to get to the rail, which is wasted energy and often puts a horse down on the inside without a clear path. When position is so important for a horse like this, why be running horizontally instead of vertically? He should get a great setup with a fast, contentious pace to at least pick up a piece of it. But it wouldn’t come as a surprise if he mows them all down. He likely will be far back again because of his post, but remember, his best Equibase speed figure by far was when he was only two to three lengths off the lead in a Tampa Bay allowance race in January, so he is no plodder. He really poured it on late in the Oaklawn Stakes and just needs a little luck and a good trip. This is your longshot pick, who likely would be third choice in the other division.

Mr. Big News Bret Calhoun

Giant's Causeway—Unappeased, by Galileo

With such a big jump in his Thoro-Graph numbers in the Oaklawn Stakes, it is understandable why his connections elected not to rum him back in three weeks. He has a solid enough foundation with five two-turn races under him, so he can afford to sit back for a little while and gear up for a summer campaign. He surely has the pedigree, but we need to see him put together back-to-back big efforts.

Major Fed Greg Foley

Ghostzapper—Bobby's Babe, by Smart Strike

Yes, he’s back in the Top 12 again. After working five furlongs in a sharp 1:00 3/5 this past weekend he looks to be sitting on a race. He was given a little breather after the TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby (G2) and is “happy and healthy” and will be ready for action once Churchill Downs opens. He is one horse you know for sure will relish the 10 furlongs.

KNOCKING ON THE DOOR

On this year’s crazy Derby trail where we get Hot Springs instead of Hot Browns and where they will run for the apple blossoms instead of the roses, let’s take a look at the Arkansas Derby.

Of the 22 horses entered, 14 have never won a stakes, and of the eight that have, six of them are in the second division. Of the two stakes winners in the first division, one won the Clever Trevor Stakes at Remington Park last year and has been beaten a total of 55 lengths in his last three races, and the other won the Runhappy Hopeful Stakes (G1) last year, but has been beaten a total of 13 lengths in his two starts this year. I thought a split race would be packed with Derby contenders, but now I feel the split hurts the overall quality, especially with the seemingly imbalance of talent in the two divisions.

Another wire-to-wire romp by Charlatan really would not prove much when it comes to winning the Kentucky Derby. The question pertaining to the Derby Dozen is how close Gouverneur Morris can get to him, and whether he can actually beat him. On speed figures, Charlatan is way faster than anyone else in the field.

As mentioned earlier, the fact that the owners of Charlatan entered another horse who really doesn’t belong in this field, having been beaten 13 lengths at 59-1 in his last start, may very well have enabled Charlatan to get in the race if Oaklawn had stuck to their statement that they would only split the race if 22 entered. Considering the horse in question, Saratogian, is trained by a different trainer makes this a very strategic move that may have, at least for the moment, altered the course of Charlatan’s career.

In the second division, you have one grade 1 winner and four grade 2 winners, as well as the only two horses to finish ahead of Derby favorite Tiz the Law.

Although the second division is by far the strongest on paper, many times you find the so-called weaker division proves to be the tougher one to win and produces the better horses in the long run. But depth-wise, the second division looks far stronger. So we’ll see just how both these races play out before judging their quality. Maybe Gouverneur Morris runs lights out or maybe Anneau d’Or returns to his form from the TVG Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) and Los Alamitos Futurity, despite the winners of those races being disappointments this year. Maybe Basin returns to his grade 1-winning form from last year when he romped in the Hopeful Stakes. It’s all unlikely, but possible.

One thing that is always frustrating when discovering new Derby hopefuls is to be very impressed with a horse, who looks to have all the tools but has a questionable pedigree to go along with it. The latest case is DR POST, who got more experience in one race than most horses get in three or four races. To overcome the rough and unsightly trip he had in the Unbridled Stakes in his two-turn debut was a testament to the colt’s toughness, professionalism, and ability to get out of trouble. This was a bumper car trip where he was in such tight quarters for quite a long way, Irad Ortiz was pretty much erect in the saddle trying to keep him from caroming off the horses inside and outside of him and running up on the heels of the horses in front of him. How he was able to withstand that and extricate himself from such a dangerous predicament and still win with his ears pricked was pretty remarkable.

He is by the successful sire Quality Road, who was best from a mile to a mile and an eighth and whose top offspring have been effective at a mile and an eighth and shorter. R Post’s dam was a sprinter and his broodmare sire Hennessy has been a speed influence. He also traces to some speedy fillies. If he is to go classic distances he will have to take advantage of being inbred three times to Secretariat. His third dam is by Seattle Slew and Hennessy’s broodmare sire is the long-distance grass champion Hawaii. We’ll see what he does in his next start, which likely will be at a mile and a eighth and then we’ll know more about him. For now, you have to like this colt a lot. He joins PNEUMATIC, MYSTIC GUIDE, and SONNEMAN as my four top late bloomers to watch come September. Another to watch, HUNT THE FRONT, runs in a mile and an eighth maiden race Arkansas Derby day trying to break his string of three straight second-place finishes.

Two others who could have a future are the Chad Brown-trained BASQUIAT and the Todd Pletcher-trained ASHIHAM, who both looked promising finishing first and second, respectively, in a seven-furlong maiden race at Gulfstream. But they have a lot of catching up to do, even with the late date of the Derby. Although EIGHT RINGS disappointed yet again in the Bachelor Stakes at Oaklawn, won in gutsy fashion by the speedy LONG WEEKEND, I don’t believe he wants any part of six furlongs, considering his pedigree is all stamina. Right now he just needs a confidence builder.

ATTACHMENT RATE still refuses to change leads. I would have given him a mulligan for his defeat to Dr Post after he was kept five-wide going into the first turn and raced wide the whole way, but as long as he doen't change leads in the stretch it's too risky keeping him in the top 12. It's too bad because I think he's a talented horse.Maybe he will benefit from the Derby delay and the light will go on before then.

Getting back to the second division of the Arkansas Derby let’s not forget the two most accomplished horses in the field who both will be long odds, SILVER PROSPECTOR, winner of the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) over Tiz the Law and the Southwest Stakes (G3) over Wells Bayou, and STORM THE COURT, champion 2-year-old and winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1). If you’re looking for back class you won’t find two better horses. Silver Prospector is a grinder with a closing kick who had a ton of trouble in the Rebel Stakes (G2) after making a good move to reach contention. In his last six starts, he has won every other start, so he is due. Storm the Court needs to find an effective running style. He has early speed, but won’t have the lead this time, and he hasn’t proven he can come home laying off the pace. But he runs hard every time and gets Flavien Prat back.

We’ll find out more about WELLS BAYOU after he faces pace pressure from top-class horses for the first time. He had things his own way on the front end in the Louisiana Derby. Now he will have to work out a trip from post 11. But at least he has won going 1 3/16 miles. And you can add the one-eyed FINNICK THE FIERCE, runner-up in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes and a winner by disqualification in an allowance race last time out. And this is just the second division.

The mystery horse in the first division is ANNEAU D’OR, who was considered one of the brightest prospects after dropping nose decisions in the grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Los Alamitos Futurity. But he ran an atrocious race in a division of the Risen Star Stakes. Was it too bad to be true? He has turned in some impressive works going long and if you’re willing to cross out that last race you could wind up with a huge overlay. WINNING IMPRESSION, who was disqualified from first last time out, and is coming off four straight solid performances looks to be coming into his own. MY FRIENDS BEER is coming off a good third to Pneumatic and has been in the money in his last six starts, including a second in the Private Terms Stakes at Laurel. For another huge bomb to hit the board, there is CRYPTO CASH, who has excelled on dirt, grass, and synthetic, and has shown a good closing kick. All these are given some kind of shot to make their presence felt because they don’t have nearly as many top-class horses to beat in this division.

There are several other 3-year-olds to watch on the Arkansas Derby undercard. GINOBILI, beaten three-quarters of a length by Nadal in the San Vicente, stretches out to two turns going 1 1/16 miles. In the same race, Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth (G2) runner-up CANDY TYCOON, tries to bounce back from a bad defeat in the Florida Derby, in which he had his share of trouble. PRODIGIOUS BAY attempts to duplicate his impressive front-running maiden score. And BACKGROUND hopes for the fast ground he got when he broke his maiden by 4 1/2 lengths.

Finally, if VENETIAN HARBOR wins the Fantasy Stakes (G3) impressively, don’t be surprised to see her enter the Derby discussion. She does have major speed influences top and bottom, so we’ll have to see how far she can carry that speed.

Derby Dozen - April 21, 2020 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Michelle Benson — Tue, 21 Apr 2020 16:10:00 GMT

Tiz the Law Barclay Tagg

Constitution—Tizfiz, by Tiznow

Just when you thought Tiz the Law was shifting his gears to neutral following the Curlin Florida Derby (G1), breezing an easy :52 4/5 half-mile, he shifts back into drive with a sharp 1:00 3/5 work for five furlongs. That should help set him up for...uh, nothing. With no races on the horizon, it will be interesting to see what Tagg does with him. You don't want to back off too much and let him get stale and you don't want him to get too sharp for no reason. This is what trainers all over the country who are not racing at Gulfstream or Oaklawn are facing. When you give your car a complete tune-up and rev up the engine you don’t want to just drive it to the supermarket when it needs to get on the expressway. On the other hand, you don’t want to leave your car parked for a month without starting it and then find out the battery is dead.

Maxfield Brendan Walsh

Street Sense—Velvety, by Bernardini

Yes, I know he’s been up and down like the proverbial yo-yo, but one week I look at his potential and the next week I look at the fact that he hasn’t run in 6 1/2 months, has had surgery to remove an ankle chip, and we can only speculate whether he will be the same horse at 3 he was at 2 when he put on a spectacular show at Keeneland that still resonates after all this time. The fact is, as solid and talented a crop as this appears to be, he still has provided the biggest explosion we have seen and his ceiling is limitless. And he has a pedigree that all but assures he will flourish at long distances. So, yes, he was our No. 1-ranked 2-year-old and has been as high as No. 2 on Derby Dozen and also in the No. 5 to 6 range, which when you think of it is not bad for a horse who has been out of sight for so long. He has been given a gift with the postponement of the Derby and now I just want to see this horse run already. Godolphin’s Jimmy Bell said he is “well and happy” and his time will come in due course.

Authentic Bob Baffert

Into Mischief—Flawless, by Mr. Greeley

He apparently is being put in mothballs until Baffert can find a race for him…if he can find a race for him. He hasn’t worked since March 29. As a May foal, this will give him more time to grow up and get rid of the little quirks he has displayed on occasion. He is an enigma because of the speed influences in his pedigree that are contrary to the racehorse who runs with gazelle-like strides that look as if they should carry him long distances. If his pedigree is an anomaly and what we see on the racetrack now is what we will see on Sept. 5 then he could turn out to be something special. But first, let’s see what he can do rating off the race.

Honor A. P. John Shirreffs

Honor Code—Hollywood Story, by Wild Rush

I thought the Arkansas Derby (G1) would be a good spot for him to get in a much-needed race and take another step forward on the Derby trail. But Shirreffs seems to be convinced that racing will resume at Santa Anita sooner than later and that there will be a race for him and he won’t have to travel all the way to Oaklawn Park. Shirreffs generally is more of a homebody and is willing to sit and wait and not have to put Honor A.P. on a plane, feeling he still has four and a half months to continue building a foundation in the horse. And when it comes to building a foundation, no one is more adept and more patient than Shirreffs. But he is dealing with a horse who wants action, as indicated by his extreme impatience galloping to the post for his latest work, fighting the restraint of the rider. Once the work started he was a happy camper, moving with great authority. He doesn’t have a big reach with his lead leg but has more of a roundhouse action. From the way the rider kept him wide turning for home it was obvious Shirreffs didn’t want him going too fast, which didn’t, just a nice :50 1/5 maintenance move.

Sole Volante Patrick Biancone

Karakontie—Light Blow, by Kingmambo

Can a horse actually be placed this high based on a victory in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3)? Yes, when you can’t get the visual aspect of that race out of your mind. I feel the Arkansas Derby would have been an important step for him, but Biancone had to bypass the race because of quarantine regulations regarding the people who accompany him. To those who frown over the possibility of Biancone having a serious Derby horse, things are not always what they seem. And whatever happened in the past, this is a second life for him and he is grasping it tightly. This is one of the most astute horsemen in the world who has performed brilliantly at the highest level in classic races both in America and Europe. Think any less of this horse or Ete Indien and it could very well cost you on Sept. 5. And remember, his sire’s broodmare sire won the Kentucky Derby (G1) and his dam’s broodmare sire won the English Derby (G1). He also has the Rasmussen Factor being inbred 3x4 to the great filly Miesque, which means he has two crosses of Prove Out, the son of Graustark who upset Secretariat, running the second-fastest mile and a half in the history of Belmont Park.

King Guillermo Juan Avila

Uncle Mo—Slow Sand, by Dixieland Band

The more I see of this horse the more he convinces me that he is as talented as any of them. Ignoring his 49-1 odds in the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby (G1), he was visually impressive, he dominated one of the best 3-year-olds in the country, showing a high cruising speed, and his speed figures were through the roof, especially his “zero” on Thoro-Graph, which was a seven-point jump from his two excellent grass races. He is bred and runs like a true distance horse, and even in his most recent work, he looked like something extraordinary, breezing six furlongs in 1:13 3/5 with the rider’s hands and body motionless. He was always on a loose rein, was striding out smoothly, and galloped out very strongly. If this horse should win the Arkansas Derby impressively he has to be right up there with Tiz the Law.

Gouverneur Morris Todd Pletcher

Constitution—Addison Run, by Unbridled's Song

I was happy to see him in the Arkansas Derby, mainly because he needs a race to continue the progression he’s been on. After running three consecutive “5s” on Thoro-Graph to begin his career, he actually broke through with a “2” in the Curlin Florida Derby (G1), despite finishing fourth, in which he gained a great deal of experience, getting caught in heavy traffic the entire length of the backstretch with nowhere to go and losing position. I thought he was striding out well in the stretch and was beaten a neck for third and one length for second. He doesn’t need to win at Oaklawn, just show good energy in the stretch and be running strongly at the finish. I’ve stuck with him all winter and this will be the test to see where he stands and what kind of progress he’s made.

Charlatan Bob Baffert

Speightstown—Authenticity , by Quiet American

The big question is whether he will get in the Arkansas Derby with so little earnings. He desperately needs to get in the starting gate and obviously has an excellent chance if they split the race, with the list of prospective starters continuing to grow. He worked six furlongs in 1:12 1/5, sitting off the flank of his workmate. He is the stock you’re debating whether to buy. The brokers are hot on it and are pushing it, but it is still a new inexperienced company that is just getting off the ground. If this big deal comes through in Arkansas, the stock will skyrocket. Like his stablemate Authentic we just don’t know what to make of his pedigree. Judging from his first two races he doesn’t expend a lot of unnecessary energy and there is no reason to think he won’t rate off the pace. But he has to demonstrate those same qualities when he takes on far better horses than what he’s been facing. In his most recent work, he pressed his workmate from the outside but was joined by a third horse on his outside. He was not being asked much getting his seven furlongs in a snappy 1:25 3/5. Too bad the exercise rider on his workmate couldn't claim foul after taking up sharply on the gallop out.

Nadal Bob Baffert

Blame—Ascending Angel, by Pulpit

It seems obvious what Baffert’s strategy is from the way he’s been working him several lengths behind a workmate and not going after him until deep stretch. Then he pours it on. You don’t want to take a horse’s natural speed away from him, but this horse needs to harness his speed if he is going to be a Derby horse. Right now, he is going too fast early, and despite winning all his races, too slow late. With a pedigree inundated with stamina all through his first five generations, it’s kind of baffling why he has so much speed and hasn’t shown an inclination to rate. This is the race American Pharoah learned to rate off the pace, and if this colt learns his lessons and reverses the way he’s been running then we are dealing with a serious Derby contender, because the mile and a quarter should be a piece of cake. In his last work, he dropped some six lengths behind his workmate and was still a long way off at the three-sixteenths pole, but showed good acceleration, making up a lot of ground quickly, going the six furlongs in 1:11 4/5. Could we see a new look Nadal at Oaklawn?

Farmington Road Todd Pletcher

Quality Road—Silver La Belle, by Langfuhr

I thought he would improve off his “4” Thoro-Graph number in the Oaklawn Stakes, but he paired up the “4,” which is still pretty good. However, with him now coming back in three weeks for the Arkansas Derby, that pairing up is the best thing to happen to him because it all but eliminates a “bounce,” and he now has room to make a significant jump, which he will need to do, as well as get lucky with traffic. If he can break sharply I don’t see him as far back as he’s been, and one of my favorite handicapping tools is second race blinkers on. His running style has also been puzzling, as his sire was brilliantly fast up to a mile and an eighth, setting three track records, and running on the lead, and his broodmare sire was equally as brilliant from sprints to a mile, with both of them winning the Met Mile. But the sires of Quality Road and Langfuhr both sired classic winners.

Mr. Big News Bret Calhoun

Giant's Causeway—Unappeased, by Galileo

If there was one horse last weekend who made a big leap in his Thoro-Graph number it was this colt, who jumped from an “8 3/4” to a “3,” which puts him within two to three points of the fastest 3-year-olds. It would have been difficult playing him in the Oaklawn Stakes off that career-high “8 3/4,” but he took a gigantic move forward, and now it’s a question whether he can come back in three weeks and not regress. His connections are watching him closely and have not yet committed to the Arkansas Derby, and in fact, don’t seem that anxious to run him back. We’ll just have to wait and see what they decide. He has a pedigree that shouts a mile and a quarter, especially his female family, and he has some very powerful inbreeding.

Attachment Rate Dale Romans

Hard Spun—Aristra, by Afleet Alex

The reason he is back in the Top 12 after being ranked No. 11 following the Gotham Stakes (G3) is that it looks as if he will be running in the new Unbridled Stakes at Gulfstream this weekend and I want to focus on horses who are currently seeing action. I am hoping two turns will help him finally change leads. I know the talent is there. If he can accomplish what he's done in his last three starts without changing leads then there definitely is something to work with. He's been stuck on his left lead in his one-turn races, but perhaps the light will go on when he rounds that first turn, and then he'll know what to do when he turns for home. In his most recent work, two other workers charged up behind him at the top of the stretch, literally on his tail. He pulled away from them by five lengths, which I liked to see, but he was still having problems with his lead change. And he did get a little wet, which I’m not concerned about. I just feel he has to get his act together in this race if he is going to be a legitimate Derby contender. So he gets one more chance.

KNOCKING ON THE DOOR

Everyone is knocking on the door these days, and hopefully we will know more after the Unbridled when we likely will see promising colts such as Attachment Rate, MONEY MOVES, and AMERICANUS among others. Money Moves came close to sneaking into the Top 12 because of his participation Saturday, but we went with the more experienced colt who has already been in the Top 12. Of course, the list likely will change dramatically after the Arkansas Derby, which will have an abundance of talented horses, especially if it’s split. With every other 3-year-old in limbo with no plans, I am giving preference to those who are running now. We will at least be able to get a handle on them.

I thought it best this week to feature a couple of horses and to get their back story rather than just throw a bunch of names out there and their works. Next week we’ll focus on the Arkansas Derby.

On the fence for the Arkansas Derby is the horse we featured strongly last week, PNEUMATIC, who was our No. 1 ranked newcomer. The Arkansas Derby would be asking a lot of such an inexperienced horse, but as owner Ron Winchell said, “We are super excited about him. We always thought he was top class, just not ready for the Derby.” Winchell continued, “He is from the family that keeps on giving to my family.”

Winchell explained how Pneumatic’s fourth dam, Carol’s Christmas, was claimed by his father, Verne Winchell, for $25,000 sight unseen. But she had a ton of speed and that was all he was looking for in a potential broodmare. When he saw her, however, he had buyer’s remorse, because she was extremely sway-backed, offset in the knees, and had crooked feet. “Basically, she looked like a train wreck,” Winchell said. But she had that all-important speed. Despite being the “ugliest broodmare on the farm,” she produced the most beautiful foals. She became Winchell’s foundation mare, and from Carol’s Christmas has come major stakes winners Tapizar, Olympio, Pyro, Cuvee, Paddy O’Prado, Call Wonder, and Wild Wonder, and now Pneumatic.

Another horse I want to feature this week is the one who I claimed could be the biggest steal in the last Future Wager, and that that would be MODERNIST at 50-1. He is another I would have loved to see in the Arkansas Derby, but it was decided to give him more time, which is understandable. He made a huge jump from a slow maiden victory at 1 1/8 miles at Aqueduct to winning a division of the Risen Star Stakes Presented by Lamarque Ford (G2). Although he finished third in the TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby (G2) going 1 3/16 miles, he was wide the entire trip, raced a bit greenly in the stretch, and his Thoro-Graph number actually leaped from a “7” to a “4.” He makes an excellent appearance and has a beautiful way of moving.

Assistant trainer Riley Mott called him a “very solid horse, physically and talent-wise.” He added, “He’s not the type that’s going to dazzle you in his races, such as an Authentic or a Charlatan. He’s pretty workmanlike at this point; does what he needs to in his training and racing. He’s made like a fullback in that he’s very stout and has great bone. He’s built to be tough, not a weak physical that might wilt away from the rigors of a tough 3-year-old campaign.

Mott said Modernist (by Uncle Mo, out of a Bernardini mare) arrived at the barn in Saratoga last spring and he never struck them as the type who would be ready early. They sent him to Belmont and he spent most of the summer and fall down there. By September he started impressing everyone in his works.

“We were asking a lot of him to jump from a maiden win to the Risen Star but the horse was in good health and we needed to find out what kind of path we were going to take with him the rest of the year,” Mott said. “He’s training every day and we’re hoping to stay competitive in those types of races going forward, especially in the summer and fall, as we think he’s a horse that should progress with age. He’s a fourth generation Wygod homebred and you can’t say enough about their breeding program.”

Modernist’s second dam, Sweet Life, was broodmare of the year in 2009 and produced two Breeders Cup winners, Distaff (G1) winner Life is Sweet and Juvenile Fillies (G1) winner and champion 2-year-old filly Sweet Catomine, both owned and bred by Mr. and Mrs. Marty Wygod. Modernist’s only inbreeding is to major stamina influence, the Roberto stallion Kris S. through his son, the major stamina influence Arch, and his daughter, the aforementioned Sweet Life.

After these next two stakes are run and we hit the big lull, expect to see Modernist in the Top 12, as he definitely is one to watch later on.

Derby Dozen - April 14, 2020 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Michelle Benson — Tue, 14 Apr 2020 16:07:00 GMT

We’re going to do something different this week. Because there are so many new faces emerging who could be major Derby contenders by Sept. 5, there will be two rankings this week. The usual list of horses who have already established themselves and a separate list in Knocking on the Door comprised of late developers who have only competed in maiden and allowance races and have not yet faced stakes company, but have shown enough to suggest they soon will be major players.

Tiz the Law Barclay Tagg

Constitution—Tizfiz, by Tiznow

With back-to-back dominating performances and negative Thoro-Graph figures added to his dominating score in last year's Champagne Stakes (G1), he is a legitimate Derby favorite, but it looks like we won't be seeing much more of him until he re-embarks on the Derby trail. He remains in light training with a :52 4/5 half-mile breeze.

Maxfield Brendan Walsh

Street Sense—Velvety, by Bernardini

Now that he's back working at Keeneland, with a solid half in :49 1/5, the truth is he is only two races behind the top 3-year-olds and should be able to get three races in before the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1). There is no reason think he won't return the same horse we saw turn in the most explosive move of the year, so we’re taking a shot he will not only return to his 2-year-old form, but will improve with experience and maturity.

Authentic Bob Baffert

Into Mischief—Flawless, by Mr. Greeley

Even though his demeanor and his galloping style suggest he will be able to rate off the pace, and even though he is a late foal and could be a monster come September, we now have to wait a while before he shows it on the racetrack. It's not as if his pedigree is loaded with stamina. So we will wait for him to return, possibly in the June 14 Affirmed Stakes (G3) if they don’t reschedule the Santa Anita Derby (G1).

Honor A. P. John Shirreffs

Honor Code—Hollywood Story, by Wild Rush

"Solid as a brass ring." That's how John Shirreffs described Honor A.P. The San Felipe (G2) runner-up will not be going to Oaklawn Park, as Shirreffs is confident Santa Anita will be back running in May. If so, we will have to wait to see how Santa Anita readjusts its stakes schedule, especially the Santa Anita Derby.

Sole Volante Patrick Biancone

Karakontie—Light Blow, by Kingmambo

He was scheduled to run in the May 2 Arkansas Derby (G1), where we were looking forward to seeing him compete away from Tampa Bay Downs, but those plans were scrapped because of too many regulatory hurdles, so now he and stablemate Ete Indien will get some time off and point for a summer campaign.

King Guillermo Juan Avila

Uncle Mo—Slow Sand, by Dixieland Band

As long as he remains on target for the Arkansas Derby he will have to stay fairly high in the rankings, because anything close to a repeat of his Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby victory will make him extremely tough to beat on May 2. He has the tactical speed, closing punch, and pedigree to be one of the top 3-year-olds.

Gouverneur Morris Todd Pletcher

Constitution—Addison Run, by Unbridled's Song

Continues to keep on edge, breezing a half in a solid :49 2/5 at Palm Beach Downs. There’s no other place for him to go, so until a decision is made regarding training at Keeneland and Churchill Downs he will remain where he’s been training all winter. He is trending upward, despite his fourth in the Curlin Florida Derby (G1), and we won’t see the best of him until summer.

Charlatan Bob Baffert

Speightstown—Authenticity , by Quiet American

He really belongs on the other list, but because he is scheduled to run in the Arkansas Derby and because I have no reason to drop him from the magazine Top 12, we will leave him here until then. He needs a race and to be tested for class, but what he may really need is a split Arkansas Derby to get in the race. He was flattered by the gutsy allowance victory by Shooters Shoot at Oaklawn, having trounced him by nearly six lengths in his career debut. I admit his ranking likely is too low for his talent, but I just want to see him stretch out to 1 1/8 miles in a large field with a lot of speed and see how he handles it.

Nadal Bob Baffert

Blame—Ascending Angel, by Pulpit

I’m sure Baffert doesn’t want to see him and Charlatan in the same race with their early speed, so he no doubt is hoping for a split race and to get Charlatan in the race with only $67,000 in earnings. The key to Nadal is relaxing early and coming home faster, something he hasn’t been able to do so far. All we know is that he is a fast, talented horse and needs to run to his pedigree.

Farmington Road Todd Pletcher

Quality Road—Silver La Belle, by Langfuhr

He gets a slight nod over Mr. Big News because of his bad post, poor start, and the winner getting first run on him. Despite the addition of blinkers, he again found himself at the back of a big field in the Oaklawn Stakes, breaking from post 12 and jockey Martin Garcia bouncing up off the saddle. He still turned in another powerful wide rally and looked like he was going to win until he starting drifting in several paths while shying from right-handed whipping and losing his momentum. But once he straightened out he put in another run and just missed by a half-length, closing his final eighth in a quick :12 1/5. But it must be added the brutal early fractions of :22 flat and :45 2/5 set it up for the first two finishers coming from far back. He has shown he can win from closer up when he captured an allowance race at Tampa Bay coming from three lengths back.

Mr. Big News Bret Calhoun

Giant's Causeway—Unappeased, by Galileo

With his sire and broodmare sire both being European grass horses, it’s possible he moved up in the slop, but take nothing away from his winning performance in the Oaklawn Stakes, as he showed he apparently likes Oaklawn better than Fair Grounds, although the speed ratings for this race were pretty slow. Breaking from post 3 he had a much smoother beginning than Farmington Road, who had to cut across the entire track, and I’m not sure if he still would have won had the runner-up kept a straight course in the stretch. You have to love his inbreeding to Halo and Hail to Reason and especially his inbreeding to the terrific Herbager mare Ballade, giving him the Rasmussen Factor (RF). His dam also traces to Darby Dan Farm foundation mare Soaring. This horse definitely will run all day.

Major Fed Greg Foley

Ghostzapper—Bobby's Babe, by Smart Strike

Connections have decided to pass on the Arkansas Derby and hope a race opens up for him on the Kentucky circuit, more sooner than later. It is hoped he can quickly erase the bad trip in the TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby (G2) when he was forced to come from last in a 14-horse field and still rallied to finish fourth, despite having to go very wide and getting bumped twice in the stretch. He is more of a midpack horse who likes to sit three to four lengths back.

KNOCKING ON THE DOOR

I have written extensive comments on the first five, but because of space, the rest will be expanded in future weeks.

Pneumatic Steve Asmussen

Uncle Mo—Teardrop, by Tapit

It is very rare that one can call a horse flawless after his first two starts. But if ever a horse has the look of a Derby horse it is this colt, who is the fourth generation bred by the Winchell family from their foundation mare Carol’s Christmas and is a rare complete outcross through five generations. Pneumatic is 2-for 2 and earned a strong “4” on Thoro-Graph in his career debut, in which he overcame a stumble two strides out of the gate. In both his races he showed he is extremely professional and responsive to his rider’s command, sitting back in fifth and making a strong move when asked. Ricardo Santana rides him with a great deal of confidence and barely touches him in the stretch. He has come home fast in both his races with final quarters in :24 and :24 2/5 going six furlongs and one mile. He runs perfectly straight down the stretch, but doesn’t seem to like the whip, shying from it ever so slightly, and has been hand-ridden the final eighth in both his races, running straight as the proverbial arrow, while showing flawless action, great extension, and he gets stronger the farther he goes. In a year with mostly frontrunners and deep closers, he is the perfect mid-pack horse. As far as competition, the runner-up in his maiden score, Skol Factor, came back and romped by 6 1/2 lengths in 1:09 3/5 and third-place finisher, Liam’s Pride, came back and won his next start by 2 1/4 lengths in 1:10 flat. From the aforementioned Carol’s Christmas has come major stakes winners Tapizar, Olympio, Pyro, Cuvee, Paddy O’Prado, Call Wonder, and Wild Wonder, and now Pneumatic. This is the complete package.

Mystic Guide Michael Stidham

Ghostzapper—Music Note, by A.P. Indy

I believe this regally bred colt will be a major Kentucky Derby contender by late spring or summer and will be ranked right up with the best once he beats winners, something Pneumatic has already done. I love everything about this horse. He has run twice and both performances were extremely impressive. In his career debut at six furlongs, he ducked out at the start, was bumped soundly and dropped back to last. He made a strong move around horses, going six-wide, and was a bit green in the stretch, switching back to left lead. But he found his best stride and was flying at the end to finish third, galloping out some five lengths ahead of the winner. Stretching out to 1 1/16 miles at Fair Grounds, he was much more professional, turning in a flawless performance, again making a sweeping outside move, then switched leads on cue and drew off to win by five lengths, coming home in a brilliant :23 3/5 and :06 flat, with the rider never going to the whip, just throwing a couple of crosses on him. He has a smooth efficient stride and from the head-on, he carries his legs perfectly straight under him. He has three Breeders’ Cup Classic winners in his first two generations, His dam won the 1 1/4-mile Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) and Mother Goose Stakes (G1), was second in the 1 1/4-mile Alabama Stakes (G1), and was third twice in the Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic (G1). Mystic Guide’s third dam, It’s in the Air, upset Hall of Famer Davona Dale in the 1 1/4-mile Alabama and won or placed in 22 stakes, 11 grade 1s.

Sonneman Mark Hennig

Curlin—Zardana, by Crimson Tide

He has yet to go two turns, but that is a mere formality. In a seven-furlong allowance optional claimer at Gulfstream, he dropped back in distance from a one-mile maiden score at Belmont after being away for six months and exploded by the leaders in the stretch, closing from last, almost a dozen lengths back after breaking slowly, to win going away by 1 1/2 lengths. It is true that the race was set up for him after some blistering fractions and a slow final eighth, but Sonneman looked sensational leveling off and making up a ton of ground to blow by the leaders. Also, his pedigree is inundated with stamina everywhere you look, including four English Derby winners (Sir Ivor, Mill Reef, Nijinsky, and Shirley Heights) and a French Derby winner, (Darshaan), as well as Sadler’s Wells, and you can add four American classic winners and the sire of two Kentucky Derby winners (Halo). So you wouldn’t think he would be effective sprinting. Also, his dam Zardana upset the great Rachel Alexandra in the New Orleans Ladies Stakes in Rachel’s 4-year-old debut. In his maiden win, he let horses go by him on the turn, and when Jose Lezcano finally asked him he swung extremely wide and mowed down everyone in the stretch, including a stubborn Cost Basis, who came back and broke his maiden in his next start at 4-5 for Chad Brown. What was most impressive was that Sonneman closed his final quarter in a rapid :23 3/5. He is a handsome classy-looking nearly black colt who has a fluid way of moving, keeping his legs perfectly straight under him. Watch out when he goes two turns.

Money Moves Todd Pletcher

Candy Ride—Citizen Advocate, by Proud Citizen

You can’t fault this colt after winning his first two starts at six furlongs and a mile in a very professional manner. He has a perfect stalking style, sitting just off fast fractions in his both his races, despite breaking last in his career debut at six furlongs in the slop, in which he was pushed along to keep up with the pace, fanned five-wide turning for home, and was stuck on his left lead through most of the stretch run. When he finally switched to his right lead nearing the sixteenth pole, he found another gear and surged forward to wear down the leader in the final strides. In his last start, he was much sharper at the break, and you had to love the way he came home his last quarter in a hair under :25, drawing off to win by almost three lengths in a sharp 1:35.30 after pressing a :45 3/5 half and 1:10 three-quarters from the inside, indicating he has a high cruising speed and can close off it. He also defeated several highly regarded maiden winners. At the top of the stretch, it looked as if he was headed by two horses, but responded to right-handed whipping and quickly asserted his superiority. He is another with beautiful action who drops his head and reaches out with good extension. His pedigree isn’t inundated with fashionable names and his dam was a sprinter, but I think there is enough there to get him classic distances. And if you want to feel old, he has Alydar in his sixth generation.

Hunt the Front Nick Zito

Revolutionary—Best of Times, by Mineshaft

He has had some tough luck in his last three starts, all second-place finishes with outside posts going two turns. All three times he broke last and the jockey angled sharply across the entire track to get to the rail, which I never like to see. Three races back, he actually made a huge premature move down the backstretch to get to within two lengths of the lead nearing the half-mile pole, but was bumped and dropped back, then had to alter course when the rail closed up on him after turning for home, and then altered course again in deep stretch when the winner drifted into his path. In his next start, he ducked to inside at the break, dropped far out of it, and had to be 20 lengths back of a strung out field down the backstretch. When he was asked for his run he put in one of the most explosive moves we’ve seen all year, flying by horses as if in another time frame. But the winner had opened up too big a lead in the stretch and he just had done too much to sustain that kind of run, yet still was beaten only 1 3/4 lengths. In his last race, on a sealed sloppy track, he broke slowly from post 12, fell 15 lengths back, then circled horses five-wide with another powerful move, but once again the front-running winner had opened a four-length lead at the eighth pole. He made up three lengths in the final eighth, coming home his final sixteenth in :06 1/5. He has as classic a pedigree as you will find, being inbred 3x3 to A.P. Indy and has the much-desired Rasmussen Factor (RF) being inbred 3x4 to Delaware Oaks winner Up the Flagpole through her daughter Runup the Colors, winner of the Alabama Stakes and dam of Louisiana Derby winner and Kentucky Derby third-place finisher Revolutionary, and her daughter Prospector’s Delite, winner of the Acorn Stakes (G1) and Ashland Stakes (G1), and the dam of Horse of the Year Mineshaft. He is also inbred three times to Hoist the Flag.

Shooters Shoot Peter Eurton

Competitive Edge—Repeat, by Bernardini

Incredibly game effort fighting off a much more experienced horse who had finished first three times. Only reason he went to the lead in his last two were inside posts. Every time Blackberry Wine looked like he was ready to assert himself, Shooters Shoot found more and came back at him again, refusing to let him get by. The biggest margin between thm was when Blackberry Wine got a neck lead on the turn, but Shooters Shoot quickly was back on even terms. This was like the Jaipur-Ridan Travers with two horses at each other's throat every step of the way. This obviously is a horse who does not want to lose. He will rate and is improving with every start and he should have no trouble going longer. He is inbred 3x4 to A.P. Indy and inbred thre times to Seattle Slew. We now know the reason why Peter Eurton has always been high on him.

Blackberry Wine Joe Sharp

Oxbow—Classicism, by A.P. Indy

He may be the most hard-luck horse of all the 3-year-olds, with two accidental drug disqualifications, but battles every time and knows how to win. But this time he just got nipped by a very talented and dogged opponent who had the rail the whole way. And he did finish 5 1/2 lengths ahead of the third horse.

Skol Factor McLean Robertson

The Factor—Kaiserin, by Tiznow

If he can duplicate his two sprinting efforts stretching out, he should be a serious horse. Tons of ability and speed, can rate, and definitely has a bright future.

Earner Steve Asmussen

Carpe Diem—Devious d'Oro, by Medaglia d'Oro

Visually impressive maiden victory, but needs to get faster going two turns. He did run fast sprinting in career debut and looks to be very professional with good tactical speed.

Pit Boss Wayne Catalano

Union Rags—Town Flirt, by Speightstown

Love the way he was flying at the end of his runner-up performance to Earner in career debut. He just has to show a bit more early speed.

Candy Machine Chad Brown

Candy Ride—Viva Caria, by Giant's Causeway

Solid stalking maiden victory after good second in career debut. Bumping incident with Or’effice was inconclusive, so he was left up.

Or'effice Mark Hennig

Medaglia d'Oro—Grace Hall, by Empire Maker

Lost all chance against Candy Machine when he was bumped and had to take up on the rail, but camera angle failed to show if the winner was at fault. He is improving with every start.

Back to Knocking on the Door, ETE INDIEN and WELLS BAYOU are two speed horses who are right on the bubble, as is Modernist. The Arkansas Derby should change things dramatically before we hit the big lull.

Derby Dozen - April 7, 2020 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Blood-Horse Staff — Tue, 07 Apr 2020 15:52:00 GMT

With little action to write about in the upcoming weeks, we’re going to focus a little more on speed ratings that we follow to detect patterns that could suggest where these horses might be on the first Saturday in September, which right now seems like an eternity. They also can tell a great deal about a horse’s strengths and weaknesses, and ultimately how fast they are, not only when applied to final times, but also within the body of the race. We will also touch on the latest Future Wager and see who might be the overlays come September.

Tiz the Law Barclay Tagg

Constitution—Tizfiz, by Tiznow

Last week we discussed some of the possible reasons for the mediocre time of the Curlin Florida Derby (G1) and why it’s not worth paying much attention to. Well, despite the decline in the Brisnet speed figure, it is interesting to note that Tiz the Law actually paired up his Thoro-Graph Holy Bull figure of “negative 3/4.” And you can’t ask more of a horse than to run back-to-back negative figures, especially considering no other 3-year-old has run a negative number this year. So, he has the speed, the pedigree, the running style, the temperament, and an owner and a trainer who have already won the Derby. Unfortunately, he’s ready to win the Derby on May 2. No one knows where he’ll be on September 5.

Sole Volante Patrick Biancone

Karakontie—Light Blow, by Kingmambo

I put him back to No. 2, where he had been, partly because he likely will run in the Arkansas Derby (G1) and he has run back-to-back 108 Brisnet late pace figures, which is the fastest late pace figure by a 3-year-old and the fact he was able to duplicate it even in a defeat, which was designed mostly as a learning experience. Watching him stride out in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) is still one of the highlights of the year, and I am looking for a powerful closer who can move early and sustain his run while moving effortlessly through the stretch and getting stronger the farther he goes. And I haven’t seen one to match this guy. With the Run for the Roses so far off and so uncertain, I just want to see that big closing kick in the Arkansas Derby (G1), which will should have a large field, or possibly be split. I love his 34-1 odds in the Future Wager.

Authentic Bob Baffert

Into Mischief—Flawless, by Mr. Greeley

Deep down, Baffert would love to back off him and give him time to grow up and mature. And with the Santa Anita Derby looking like it won’t be run, that is what he will do, as he points him for a summer campaign. He again showed his greenness in his most recent work when he ran up behind a pair of workers and seemed to lose focus, cocking his head out and switching over to his left lead before switching back to his right lead. We already know the talent is there, and he relaxes so well I doubt there will be a problem stretching out. His Brisnet speed ratings have been good and he’s on an excellent pattern on Thoro-Graph, going from a 6 ¼ to a 3 ½ to a 1 ½. If there is no Santa Anita Derby, he should benefit a great deal from a little time off, after which he should return more of a polished pro.

Honor A. P. John Shirreffs

Honor Code—Hollywood Story, by Wild Rush

From a speed rating standpoint, he’s not quite there, maybe a couple of races away if he continues to move forward. His Brisnet speed rating was a three-point decline from his maiden win to the San Felipe (G2), but he improved three points on Thoro-Graph, which seems to be the direction he’s heading from watching his races. He ran in the San Felipe like a horse who is improving. Shirreffs said he’d love to run him in the Santa Anita Derby and would consider the Arkansas Derby as an alternative, but no decisions have been made. He tuned up with an easy half in :49 and looked great, moving smoothly throughout with his head, as usual, down into the bit. He is extremely professional in his works and his races and you couldn’t ask him to be doing and looking any better.

King Guillermo Juan Avila

Uncle Mo—Slow Sand, by Dixieland Band

With the Arkansas Derby now a good possibility and after seeing his speed ratings, you have to take him very seriously. His Thoro-Graph figure leaped from a “7 1/4" to a “zero” going from grass to dirt. But what I really loved was his 102 speed figure on Brisnet in the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby (G2) and whopping 107 late pace figure. When a horse who is always right up on the pace can put in that kind of closing pace figure, especially off a fairly solid 92 middle pace figure, you can see why he dominated that race. No one, not even Sole Volante, could have caught him with as strong a finish as that. The Arkansas Derby should tell us just how good this horse really is. If you got him at 36-1 in the Future Wager and he wins or runs big at Oaklawn, you’ve got yourself a pretty live ticket at a huge price.

Gouverneur Morris Todd Pletcher

Constitution—Addison Run, by Unbridled's Song

He is another who should benefit from the extra time. He still has improving to do based on his Brisnet numbers, but his jump from three straight “5s” on Thoro-Graph to a “2” in the Curlin Florida Derby (G1) is what you want to see. He needed to take a step forward and he did, despite a less than ideal trip, from which he should learn and gain a great deal of experience in dealing with tight traffic. Right now it is mostly gut feeling, visuals, and projecting where he will be on Sept. 5. I certainly would have taken a shot at him in the Future Wager at 31-1.

Maxfield Brendan Walsh

Street Sense—Velvety, by Bernardini

With him backing off before even getting started, it puts him right back to where he was. I still think as highly of him as I always did, and had him as my top-ranked 2-year-old, but until he starts working again and finds a race so we know what kind of transition he’s made from 2 to 3, he’ll have to stay around the No. 5 to No. 7 level. But if he comes back as good as he was in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1), he likely will be battling Tiz the Law for the No. 1 spot. We still haven’t seen a horse with the explosive power he demonstrated at Keeneland. Only Sole Volante has come close. It was that move that people still remember and why he closed as one of the favorites in the latest Kentucky Derby Future Wager at 9-1 odds in spite of not having run this year.

Charlatan Bob Baffert

Speightstown—Authenticity , by Quiet American

This colt is one big effort in the Arkansas Derby away from leaping into the No. 2 or No. 3 spot. We know how brilliant and professional and dominating he is. We just need to see him tested for class. His speed ratings on Thoro-Graph and Brisnet are through the roof, and he runs like a horse who will go on despite the questions about his pedigree, basically being by Sprint champion Speightstown, who in fact has sired several grade 1 winners at a mile and a quarter. The ease with which this colt does everything suggests he could be a major star in the making, which explains him closing as the co-favorite among individual interests in the Future Wager at odds of 5-1, despite never running in a stakes. Even doing things so effortlessly, he still runs monster numbers, including his ability to run triple-digit middle and late pace figures on Brisnet, something you very rarely see from a horse with only a maiden and allowance race. He is one horse who definitely will appreciate the delay and really wasn’t ready for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1). Now the pressure for points is off if Baffert sends him to Oaklawn for the Arkansas Derby for his big class test.

Nadal Bob Baffert

Blame—Ascending Angel, by Pulpit

I like the way Baffert has been working him, having him lay off his workmate for as long as possible. This colt needs to relax early and show he can rate. His early and middle pace figures on Brisnet have been strong, but his late pace figures have been pedestrian, so he needs to start evening that out, and the Arkansas Derby is a good place to start. On both Brisnet and Thoro-Graph his numbers have been just OK and fairly even with no improvement. It is hoped that with his pedigree he can learn to settle better and save something for the end. Remember, his last two wins have both been by only three-quarters of a length. He will get his big chance to move up in the Arkansas Derby. Once this colt learns to push all the right buttons there’s no telling how good he can be.

Ete Indien Patrick Biancone

Summer Front—East India, by Mizzen Mast

We established last week that you can excuse his third-place finish in the Florida Derby, and that he is a much better horse than that, and it would more helpful assessing his true ability if we could see what he’s really capable of when not breaking from outside posts at Gulfstream, even though he was able to overcome it in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth (G2). Although his Brisnet speed figure dropped to a 94 after three consecutive triple-digit numbers, his Thoro-Graph number only dipped to a still respectable 2 ¾ following a pair of 2s. In his three previous starts, he ran triple-digit opening pace figures on Brisnet followed by triple-digit middle pace figures ranging from 103 to 106, and then still had enough left to run solid 99 late pace figures in all three. In the Florida Derby, he ran a 90 early pace figure, a 100 middle pace figure and a sluggish 85 late pace figure, all far slower than we know he can run. So, clearly this was not the same horse for whatever reason, and he deserves another chance to bounce back.

Mystic Guide Mike Stidham

Ghostzapper—Music Note, by A.P. Indy

His Thoro-Graph numbers are pretty much what I expected them to be for a late bloomer just getting started. He jumped from a 10 in his career debut to a 5 ¾, which gives him a good starting off point, and he has plenty of time to boost those numbers to where he is competitive with the leading Derby contenders. His pedigree suggests he will only get better the farther he goes, and his closing fractions of about :23 3/5 and :6.17 in his maiden victory were extremely fast. Yes, the early fractions appear on the surface to be on the slow side, but the half-mile of :48.59 was only .59 of a second slower than the victorious Wells Bayou ran in the Louisiana Derby. I believe this colt has a bright future and is the one horse to put in the Top 12 on pure speculation and visuals with the Derby so far off.

Major Fed Greg Foley

Ghostzapper—Bobby's Babe, by Smart Strike

The Arkansas Derby is being considered, but with everything so up in the air, they are still trying to decide the best path for him, basically whether to plan for September or take the races available now. All we can do for now is wait and see what his connections decide to do. His Thoro-Graph and Brisnet figures suggest he is not quite fast enough at this point to beat some of the brilliant horses expected at Oaklawn, but there is no reason to think he won’t be by September, judging by his steady climb up the class ladder, the recent trips he’s had, and his scope for improvement. And let’s remember his 106 late pace figure on Brisnet (yes, off a slow pace) and his 99 late pace figure in the Louisiana Derby after going very wide both bode well for the future, especially with his pedigree that is inundated with stamina.

KNOCKING ON THE DOOR

This week’s Highlight Horse -- Getting a chance to look at all the Thoro-Graph and Brisnet numbers, the one horse who fascinates me most is TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby (G2) runner-up NY TRAFFIC. It is remarkable how both figures parallel each other in rate of improvement. His last five Brisnet speed figures are 77, 83, 88, 90, and 96. His last four Thoro-Graph numbers are 13 ½ , 8 ½, 5 ½, and 2 ¾. That is about as steady an improvement as you can get. And what is most fascinating are his early Thoro-Graph numbers. Sandwiched between a 10 ¾ in his debut at Parx and a 10 ½ in his third start is an outrageous 2 ¾, which is pretty spectacular for a 2-year-old at Parx.

The question with him is how far he wants to go, as his pedigree on the surface looks to be geared more to a mile and possibly up to 1 1/8 miles. His sire Cross Traffic did win the Whitney (G1) and his broodmare sire Graeme Hall won the Arkansas Derby (G2) and Jim Dandy (G2), so there is a strong nine-furlong base. His maternal great-grandsire Silic won the Breeders Cup Mile (G1T) and the Shoemaker Mile (G2T) twice, and his maternal great-granddam Quilma won the Chilean 1,000 Guineas. But Quilma’s sire Semenenko is by Vaguely Noble, out of English Oaks winner Carrozza, so there is tremendous stamina there. And Silic’s sire Sillery was a group 2 winner in France and was second in grade/group 1 races in France, Italy, and the U.S. at a mile and a half. On the sire’s side, Cross Traffic is inbred 4x5 to Dr. Fager. What is also fascinating about his pedigree is that in his first five generations on his dam’s side there are horses bred in the U.S. France, Chile, Ireland, and Australia.

He has excellent tactical speed and was up against it trying to chase Wells Bayou, who was alone on a slow pace in the Louisiana Derby. His majority owner John Fanelli started getting calls about him after his brilliant maiden score. He contacted Chuck Zacney, whose good horse Monday Morning Qb finished second in that race, but the asking price was too high. After two disappointing efforts, Fanelli decided to move him to Saffie Joseph Jr. at Gulfstream and asked Zacney again if he wanted to buy in, convinced he was a two-turn horse. Zacney, who also has the swift Gotham (G3) winner Mischevious Alex, was intrigued that he was a New York-bred and had those races to look forward to, so he bought in for 20 percent at a more reasonable price.

Now, after a pair of graded stakes-placed efforts, it’s just a question of finding a spot for him, while still not quite sure how far he wants to go. It is interesting to note that Ny Traffic earned a faster Thoro-Graph number than the victorious Wells Bayou in the Louisiana Derby, despite ducking out in the stretch from left-handed whipping. But he did seem to find another gear in the final 100 yards and was striding out beautifully at the wire, and was still going strong past the wire. He also is one of the most consistently fast workers in the country with four-furlong drills in :47 3/5, :47 2/5, and :47 1/5, and five-furlong works in :59 2/5, :58 4/5, :59 3/5, :59 2/5, and 1:00 flat.

One thing the Derby postponement does is make allowance and even maiden races relevant once again, and we have had several worth mentioning over the past two weeks.

Todd Pletcher sent out another promising colt in MONEY MOVES, who pressed the pace in a one-mile allowance race at Gulfstream before drawing off to 2 ¾-length victory in a sharp 1:35.30. The son of Candy Ride is now two-for-two and obviously has a bright future. Runner-up EDGE OF FIRE, a son of Curlin trained by Jimmy Jerkens, is another to watch down the road. Both these colts will only get better the farther they go.

A mile and a sixteenth allowance optional claimer at Oaklawn turned out a bit disappointing with the sloppy track and the disqualification from first of WINNING IMPRESSION, who defeated graded stakes-placed FINNICK THE FIERCE by one length. The eventual winner ran a game race stuck down on the rail, and this was a good bounce-back race after a pair of disappointing efforts in graded stakes. He is one of only two horses to have finished in front of Tiz the Law, both in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2). Winning Impression had a great trip and was probably the best horse, but drifted in, bothering the 1-2 favorite ANSWER IN, who was not going to win anyway, but it did likely cost him a fourth-place finish.

A perfect example of a late discovery this year is SONNEMAN. In a seven-furlong allowance optional claimer at Gulfstream, the rapidly improving Curlin colt dropped back in distance from a one-mile maiden score at Belmont after being away for six months and exploded by the leaders in the stretch, closing from last, almost a dozen lengths back after breaking slowly, to win going away by 1 ½ lengths. The negative is that the race was set up for him after some blistering fractions and a slow final eighth. But the positive is that Sonneman’s pedigree is inundated with stamina everywhere you look, including four English Derby winners (Sir Ivor, Mill Reef, Nijinsky, and Shirley Heights) and a French Derby winner, (Darshaan), as well as Sadler’s Wells, sire of six Irish Derby winners, three French Derby winners, two English Derby winners including Galileo, and two Arc de Triomphe winners, and you can add four American classic winners and the sire of two Kentucky Derby winners (Halo). So you wouldn’t think he would be effective sprinting. It is interesting to note that his dam Zardana upset the great Rachel Alexandra in the New Orleans Ladies Stakes in Rachel’s 4-year-old debut.

In his maiden victory, I loved the way he relaxed off the pace in seventh and let horses go by him on the turn, just biding his time and not getting stirred up, despite being in traffic. When Jose Lezcano finally asked him he swung extremely wide and mowed down everyone in the stretch, including a stubborn Cost Basis, who came back and broke his maiden in his next start at 4-5 for Chad Brown and Klaravich Stable. What was most impressive was that Sonneman closed his final quarter in a rapid :23 3/5. It looks like Mark Hennig has a real good one for his longtime client Courtlandt Farm.

Sonneman is a handsome classy-looking nearly black colt with a great deal of appeal who has a fluid way of moving, keeping his legs perfectly straight under him. Definitely watch out for this guy when he goes two turns and beyond. I think by September we will all be talking about him as a serious Derby horse.

The No. 13 ranked horse THREE TECHNIQUE will skip the Arkansas Derby and point for a summer campaign. Looking at the closing Future Wager odds, one that looks to be a potential overlay projecting ahead to September is the 50-1 on MODERNIST, who is on an excellent Thoro-Graph pattern that suggests he will be a much better horse then than he is now, and he's pretty good now. Who would have thought fall that you would be able to get 53-1 odds on the Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner. STORM THE COURT has not run a bad race this year, and if he moves forward after pairing up "3 1/2" Thoro-Graph numbers he could be fairly live four months from now. He just needs to figure out what his most effective weapon is.

What a year Bob Baffert picked to have five potential Kentucky Derby horses. He has an arena for two of them, NADAL and CHARLATAN, at Oaklawn on May 2 and he said he will send THOUSAND WORDS there for Saturday's Oaklawn Stakes. Baffert also said AZUL COAST will get a freshening.The all but forgotten Withers winner MAX PLAYER has been working six and seven furlongs, but also has nowhere to run. Trainer Linda Rice said she is spacing out his works until she can figure out what to do with him.

It looks like they could have a large field for Saturday's Oaklawn Stakes, which could attract BASIN, who is coming off a strong third in the Rebel Stakes, his first start since romping in the Hopeful Stakes.

Derby Dozen - March 31, 2020 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Michelle Benson — Tue, 31 Mar 2020 18:27:00 GMT

Yes, Virginia, there is still a Derby Dozen, as we have been informed that sponsor Shadwell wants to keep it going right up until the week of the Arkansas Derby, so if anyone has any poems, songs, short stories, or any limericks and one-liners they wish to share, send them in. But seriously, we will try to provide some semblance of a Derby Dozen, although there is not much that would alter the Top 12 rankings unless we try some bold moves and revamp them based solely on what these horses might look like five months from now, as we’ve done with one or two of them. But for now we have quite a gap between the Curlin Florida Derby (G1) and Arkansas Derby (G1) if for some reason they don’t run the Santa Anita Derby (G1), so we’ll try to make it as entertaining as possible.

Tiz the Law Barclay Tagg

Constitution—Tizfiz, by Tiznow

There has to be something bittersweet about winning a major prep for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) and establishing yourself as a solid favorite for the Run for the Roses and have no Derby in which to run. Tiz the Law couldn’t have been more impressive winning the Florida Derby as he dominated the best 3-year-old field assembled this year, and did it like the consummate pro. This was his most professional effort yet as he rated beautifully just off the pace and ran perfectly straight in the stretch without cocking his head, as he had done in past races and workouts. Some may point out the final time of 1:50 and final eighth in :13.21, but they hadn’t run a dirt race in two hours and the race was run just before 7 p.m. ET, so perhaps the track was getting a bit loose and dry on a warm humid evening. Just a possibility. And if not, history has shown us that a regression in time late on the Derby trail after running fast earlier is nothing new with great horses (See Knocking on the Door).

Authentic Bob Baffert

Into Mischief—Flawless, by Mr. Greeley

With a Kentucky Derby that is planned for Sept. 5 and after news of the rescheduled Santa Anita Derby (G1) dropped March 31, Baffert will have to figure out a new way to move forward with him. Other than that, he is playing it week by week. Baffert is so effusive in his praise for this colt, you have to respect that, especially in a year like this with so few standouts when it comes to pure talent. He is a late foal and still maturing, and he looks more professional with every race. No certainty he’ll stay 1 1/4 miles with his pedigree, but he is very light on his feet and just floats over the ground using up little energy. In short, he takes very little out of himself, as he showed in his latest six-furlong work in 1:12 2/5. There is no doubting his talent; the main question is whether he can rate off the pace if he has to. It seems he gets the lead so easily and is never rank, so, like American Pharoah, all indications are that he will rate kindly. I don’t think we’ve seen anywhere near the best of him.

Honor A. P. John Shirreffs

Honor Code—Hollywood Story, by Wild Rush

Who knows if or when they will run the Santa Anita Derby. If they don’t, Shirreffs could very well back off him and wait for the summer. But he’s keeping him sharp, working him five furlongs in 1:00 1/5, doing it well in hand. Right now, he needs to move forward off his solid San Felipe Stakes (G2) performance as promising as that was. He appears to have a lot of leg action and seems to hit the ground hard, but that could be emphasized by his white front legs. He does have the right running style, lying just off the pace, and has a decent enough kick. Distance is not an issue, as he has plenty of stamina top and bottom.

Sole Volante Patrick Biancone

Karakontie—Light Blow, by Kingmambo

Why am I so persistent on keeping him this high, especially when the horse he beat in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3), Independence Hall, ran so poorly in the Florida Derby? Again, we’re back to visuals. He didn’t just rally late off a fast pace, he demonstrated an explosive kick on the turn and had the race won at the quarter pole. And I just like what I saw in the stretch, especially the fluidity of his stride and how he just glided over the ground. And this was over Independence Hall’s home track. Biancone has backed off a little on his training as he points for the May 2 Arkansas Derby. He could be back at No. 2 or 3 by the time that race is run, as we have no idea if the Santa Anita Derby will be run. That will be a layoff of three months, so Biancone will have his work cut out for him getting him sharp and fit.

Maxfield Brendan Walsh

Street Sense—Velvety, by Bernardini

He’s headed to Keeneland, where he should resume training. No reason to rush him now to make any particular race, as there is really nothing for him. Fortunately, they were able to get several good works in him, including the last two at five furlongs, so if this virtual stoppage ends in the near future it wouldn’t take him too long to get ready for a race. The reason he’s been back in the Top 12, despite having only two career starts and none this year, is his explosive victory in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity (G1), still the most visually impressive performance by a 2-year-old last year. We just have to see if that explosive turn of foot he exhibited is something he can repeat. He is still high in the rankings because of his high ceiling and a pedigree that will surely carry him a mile and a quarter.

Gouverneur Morris Todd Pletcher

Constitution—Addison Run, by Unbridled's Song

Yep, he is staying right where he was. This is all about projecting ahead to Sept. 5 and I feel he moved forward in the Florida Derby considering he had only one allowance race at Tampa in the last six months, was stuck in traffic most of the way, had holes close on him twice when he was full of run, the last time dropping from two lengths back to almost six lengths back. He was widest of all turning for home, and although he couldn’t improve his position, finishing fourth, I like the way he was striding out in the stretch and just missed by a neck of catching Ete Indien for third, making up a couple of lengths in the final sixteenth. He showed enough to suggest that there is still a great deal of room for improvement. To me, he did not lose anything in this race, especially with the Derby pushed back to September.

Nadal Bob Baffert

Blame—Ascending Angel, by Pulpit

I have the same question with him as I do his stablemates Authentic and Charlatan. The only difference is that he has yet to demonstrate any willingness to rate, even on the lead. But in the Rebel he went to the lead by necessity from the rail and Baffert has no doubt he will rate when asked to. His three Thoro-Graph numbers have all been “3 3/4,” so he hasn’t gotten any faster since his debut. But because he showed he can go fast early and still win, he has to be considered a contender, although his Brisnet speed figures show a drop off in the last part of the race. He is bred to go long, so perhaps in the next several weeks or months he can learn to harness some of that speed and not be committed to the lead. It is obvious that Baffert is trying to teach him to rate the way he sat off a workmate and took his time before going after him; not nailing him until right at the wire. And the time of :49 3/5 indicates he didn’t want him going too fast. We will see how well he’s learned his lessons in the Arkansas Derby.

Charlatan Bob Baffert

Speightstown—Authenticity , by Quiet American

He could turn out to be as talented as any of them, but I still need to see what he can do in stakes company and how he reacts under pressure. He is another who is a question mark at a distance, but like Authentic, he is not headstrong and appears to be an easy horse to rate. I believe he has gone to the front in both his races only because he was much the best horse and Baffert likes to see his horses on the lead when they tower over the competition. He has a smooth, fluid way of going, and could turn out to be something special. I would love to see him tested for class in the Arkansas Derby, so we’ll have to see if they wind up splitting the race to allow both him and Nadal a shot to remain undefeated.

Ete Indien Patrick Biancone

Summer Front—East India, by Mizzen Mast

If there is one reason to knock the performances of everyone but the winner it’s that no one, especially Ete Indien, could outrun an 80-1 sprinter. Ete Indien had seemingly put him away, but let him come back on the rail and then couldn’t catch him for second. But I will give him somewhat of a pass considering how lathered up he was before the Florida Derby, and judging from the nasty horizontal gash on the back of his leg, he obviously got clipped pretty good somewhere in the race. He had every chance to rate off the quick-footed Shivaree and did sit just off him for a while, but he was too revved up to settle behind him. Also, it’s possible he wasn’t really handling this track. I just can’t throw out his previous two races, so I will keep him in the Top 12 and trust Biancone to find a way to get him to relax. I still think he’s a talented horse and definitely deserves another chance. After his big efforts in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) and Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2), and now his Florida Derby, in which he got cut up, he probably can use a little down time.

King Guillermo Juan Avila

Uncle Mo—Slow Sand, by Dixieland Band

He seems to have fallen into the abyss since his upset score in the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby (G2). He hasn’t worked since that race and there has been no word regarding his plans. But then again, unless he was targeting the Arkansas Derby, there is no reason to do much with him. So for now, we’ll just wait and see when he shows up again, in the morning and afternoon. But it would be reassuring to at least see a work. So all we can go by is how impressive he looked at Tampa and not knowing just how good he really is or will be come September. He sure looked like a darn good horse and should only get better.

Mystic Guide Mike Stidham

Ghostzapper—Music Note, by A.P. Indy

For all the reasons I mentioned last week this is my wild stab, looking down the line and trying to project where this colt will be in five months. I know he hasn’t beaten winners and has a lot to prove, but I love everything I’ve seen from him so far. And looking at his female family, his dam won the 1 1/4-mile Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) and Mother Goose Stakes (G1), was second in the 1 1/4-mile Alabama Stakes (G1), and was third twice in the Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic (G1). Music Note is a half sister to French One Thousand Guineas (G1) winner Musical Chimes, and Mystic Guide’s third dam, It’s in the Air, upset Hall of Famer Davona Dale in the 1 1/4-mile Alabama and won or placed in 22 stakes, 11 of them grade 1. It’s in the Air’s dam, A Wind is Rising, is the fifth dam of two-time Dubai World Cup Sponsored by Emirates Airline (G1) winner Thunder Snow. While the other Godolphin Derby hopeful, Maxfield, heads to Keeneland, Mystic Guide is off to Fair Hill, where they will map out a plan for possible future races.

Major Fed Greg Foley

Ghostzapper—Bobby's Babe, by Smart Strike

As we get down to the bottom of the list I have decided to simply focus on the classic-type horses that have impressed me visually, have the pedigree, and that I have been touting based on long-range projection. It was close between Mystic Guide, Major Fed, and Three Technique, and even Attachment Rate, for the final two spots. They are all very close when it comes to the promise I see in them, all should be better horses in September, and they could be interchangeable on Derby Dozen in the coming weeks. One of the reasons I have him in the Top 12 in addition to his sneaky good fourth in the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby (G2) is a pedigree inundated with European staying power. He will run all day and his last two races indicate there is a great deal of improvement still to come.

KNOCKING ON THE DOOR

Fortunately, Churchill Downs is still going ahead with its Derby Future Wager, but good luck betting on a horse to win the Derby five months away. Well,at least it's better than having bet in January. For the purpose of Derby Dozen, however, it at least gives us something to talk about next week. We can discuss the odds, the overlays, the underlays, and which were the "smart" horses to bet on this far out.

To continue our thoughts about the final time of the Florida Derby from a historical viewpoint, after running some brilliant times early in Florida, Spectacular Bid won the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) in 1:50. After Northern Dancer won the Florida Derby in a sluggish 1:50 4/5, regressing three full seconds from the Flamingo Stakes, Bill Shoemaker took off him to ride Hill Rise in Kentucky, and all the Dancer did was run the fastest Kentucky Derby of all time. Seattle Slew ran blazing times in Florida, but regressed more than two full seconds winning the Wood Memorial in 1:49 3/5. The brilliantly fast Swaps, who would go on to set world records, barely held on to win the Santa Anita Derby in 1:50, and there were no “Wows” when Majestic Prince won the Santa Anita Derby in 1:49 1/5 and Justify in 1:49 3/5 before becoming undefeated Kentucky Derby winners. Although they were second at Churchill Downs to Hall of Famers, Alydar, after running back-to-back times of 1:47 flat, regressed nearly three seconds when he won the Blue Grass in 1:49 3/5, and his son Easy Goer missed Dr. Fager's world record by a fifth of a second in the Gotham Stakes before winning the Wood Memorial in a slow 1:50 3/5. So Tiz the Law winning the Florida Derby in 1:50 after a brilliant performance in the Holy Bull Stakes is no big deal. And who knows when he will run next. Anyway, just a little history lesson the break things up a bit.

I have to admit I would have preferred an 80-1 sprinter not finishing second in the Florida Derby and coming back after being headed by Ete Indien at the quarter pole and outrunning him. But let’s not forget that a 71-1 maiden finished second in last year’s Florida Derby behind Maximum Security. Also SHIVAREE was getting blinkers off after three wins and two seconds in his last five starts, including four stakes, and he is not bred to be a sprinter. His paternal grandsire won the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) and his two maternal great-grandsires both won the Belmont Stakes (G1). Something inspired trainer Ralph Nicks to stretch him out in a grade 1, so perhaps this won’t be that much of a surprise in the long run.

I have no idea what happened to INDEPENDENCE HALL . He was in good striking position but was empty before they hit the head of the stretch. His speed figures indicated he was on an excellent pattern to get back to that monster -2 he ran on Thoro-Graph last year, but he took a major step backwards. I still believe he’s a very good horse who just had a bad day.

Of my other two long-range Derby bullets, THREE TECHNIQUE hasn’t worked since the Rebel Stakes (G2), so, although the Arkansas Derby seems logical, I’ll put him on hold until we learn what his plans are. And although I have been unable to make contact with Dale Romans, ATTACHMENT RATE’s five-furlong work in a sharp 1:00.36 suggests he might be heading to the Arkansas Derby. So I will just assume that until we learn otherwise. I still say watch out for this colt.

Until we learn the fate of the Santa Anita Derby it makes no sense to speculate on the size of the Arkansas Derby field and who might be running. But if there is no Santa Anita Derby I would say there is an excellent chance of it being split, as there is no other place to run these 3-year-olds in the foreseeable future. You could have shippers from Santa Anita, Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots, horses who ran in the Tampa Bay Derby, and perhaps one or two from New York, as well as a solid group of local representatives.

Bob Baffert has been planning on running THOUSAND WORDS in the Santa Anita Derby, and will have to come up with an alternate plan if that race isn’t run. He’s been working very well, and we’ll see if Baffert has him and/or Authentic join Nadal and Charlatan. Those four split in two divisions would be awfully formidable. Baffert also has AZUL COAST working sharply and he’s been looking to run somewhere since they canceled the Sunland Derby (G3).

One Arkansas Derby prospect, BASIN , worked five furlongs in 1:01 3/5 and should improve off his third-place finish in the Rebel Stakes. Rebel runner-up EXCESSION indicated his sharpness by working five furlongs in 1:00 4/5. The big question with him is how he’ll do on a fast track, having proven himself quite a mudlark.

We’ll see what Bill Mott decides to do with MODERNIST, whose wide trip when third in the Louisiana Derby suggests he is making steady progress and could be one to watch come September. I’m still in a dilemma what to do with Louisiana Derby winner WELLS BAYOU, who has made great strides in his last three starts, but in his five lifetime starts he still hasn’t shown any inclination to rate off the pace. But he is getting awfully good right now.

Another of my horses to watch, FARMINGTON ROAD, breezed a half in :50.08 at Palm Beach Downs and is another who could run in the Arkansas Derby. Watch out for the son of Quality Road coming on late.

Derby Dozen - March 24, 2020 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Blood-Horse Staff — Tue, 24 Mar 2020 16:23:00 GMT

Kudos to Oaklawn Park for taking the initiative and making its Derby THE Derby on the first Saturday in May. Provided the Arkansas Derby (G1) goes as scheduled -- racing across the country is fluid amid COVID-19 -- this will be the biggest live sporting event in the country that will have extensive TV coverage. It would seem poised have enormous handle and will have 3-year-olds from all over converging on Oaklawn Park to get in their final big grade 1 race before shutting down for a while and then gearing back up for the Sept. 5 Run for the Roses.

For now, we can only hope that the three grade 1 stakes, the Curlin Florida Derby, Santa Anita Derby, and Arkansas Derby, all go off as planned in these uncertain times.

Tiz the Law Barclay Tagg

Constitution—Tizfiz, by Tiznow

The more I watch the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) the more impressed I am. It took an extraordinary horse to beat Ete Indien that day after the way he was forced to steady and drop several lengths back, then come around horses. With the Curlin Florida Derby (G1) only his second start of the year, do you come back in the Arkansas Derby (G1) or back off on him? No need any longer to be concerned about peaking too soon. If he runs back to his Holy Bull performance he is going to be very difficult to beat. He had an easy five-furlong work in 1:02.65 over a dull Palm Meadows track. He still has a tendency to cock his head, but he looked strong galloping out.

Maxfield Brendan Walsh

Street Sense—Velvety, by Bernardini

There is no reason to rush him now, and if he is ready for a major test, no concerns about having only one race before the Derby. He most likely would not be ready for a top effort if he comes back in the Arkansas Derby (G1), but he can be ready for the Oaklawn Invitational on April 11, the original date of the Arkansas Derby, and then come back three weeks later, where he has an excellent chance to be ready for his best effort and earn valuable points.

Sole Volante Patrick Biancone

Karakontie—Light Blow, by Kingmambo

I’m not so sure he’s the best horse in his own barn, but with no 20-horse field to contend with this year on the first Saturday in May he has a much better chance to land his first grade 1 if they keep him around and point for the Arkansas Derby. Knowing Biancone, who likes to step out of the box, it wouldn’t shock me if he ran him in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) depending on who Baffert runs a how thin the field is. Or he could also go for the Oaklawn Invitational -- Arkansas Derby double. He is still the most powerful closer of the group and should love Oaklawn, which is usually a very fair track.

Honor A. P. John Shirreffs

Honor Code—Hollywood Story, by Wild Rush

He showed his sharpness working five furlongs in 1:00. A likely starter in the Santa Anita Derby, that could be his main target of the spring, as he should move forward off his excellent performance in the San Felipe Stakes (G2). Shirreffs can then decide whether or not to ship to Oaklawn for the May 2 Arkansas Derby or keep him home and point for the Los Alamitos Derby and/or a possible new race at Del Mar to provide the California 3-year-olds with a prep for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1).

Authentic Bob Baffert

Into Mischief—Flawless, by Mr. Greeley

Baffert gave him an easy five-furlong breeze in 1:01.80, in which it looked like he was in an open gallop. As of now, Baffert plans on running him in the Santa Anita Derby, but there is a possibility he could back off on him and give him some time to mature, with him being a late foal (May 5). It could all depend on whether or not the Arkansas Derby is split. If it is, Baffert could run Nadal and Charlatan in each division ad run Authentic at Santa Anita with Thousand Words. But if it isn’t, he may very well run Charlatan in the Santa Anita Derby with Thousand Words and give Authentic some time off.

Gouverneur Morris Todd Pletcher

Constitution—Addison Run, by Unbridled's Song

With the change in schedule, there is no longer urgency for points, but I am still expecting a big performance in the Florida Derby coming off a five-furlong work in 1:01.65, which Pletcher said was as good a work as he's ever had. Whoever rides him will be picking up a very live mount. With only three lifetime starts and coming off only one workmanlike allowance victory at Tampa Bay he has every reason to be a bit short against this field, but sometimes talent alone can help you exceed expectations. And he does have the talent.

Ete Indien Patrick Biancone

Summer Front—East India, by Mizzen Mast

I don’t like having him this far down, because he may be a lot better than most people think and could run away with the Florida Derby. He may be that good. But he does have to show he’s not a one-dimensional speed horse. He had another strong open gallop, as Biancone is building his stamina. We already know he has the speed and ability to carry it a long way, and when a speed horse keeps going and doesn’t tire it makes him all the more difficult to get by. You don’t want to see him loose on the lead, but you don’t want to go after him too soon for fear you won’t be around at the finish. We saw how tough he is in the Holy Bull Stakes, and if he improves even a little off that effort and his Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth (G2) romp from a terrible post, the others might be in for a rough afternoon.

Independence Hall Michael Trombetta

Constitution—Kalahari Cat, by Cape Town

He could be the overlay of the year in the Florida Derby. After working all winter at Tampa Bay, he blew out a half in :48.31 at Gulfstream and seemed to be loving the track in what should be an excellent sharpener. He’s been sort of forgotten, but that could change this weekend. This is his big opportunity to regain his once lofty reputation as one of the top 3-year-olds and a potential star. It will all depend on how he is ridden. The key is waiting and not hitting the front too soon, as he did in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3), not that he would be able to do that anyway with Ete Indien on the lead. If possible he would want to avoid being between the proverbial rock and hard place, with Ete Indien in front of him and Tiz the Law and Gouverneur Morris right behind him. The way he’s been working long at Tampa Bay I wouldn’t be surprised to see him laying fourth and timing his move a lot better.

King Guillermo Juan Avila

Uncle Mo—Slow Sand, by Dixieland Band

If they point for the Arkansas Derby he still will have eight weeks between races and one race in five months, but he would be running 1 1/8 miles instead of 1 1/4 miles and won’t be forced to run hard early in a 20-horse field. The fact that he runs so well fresh gives Avila the luxury of spacing his races. What I loved the most about his Tampa Derby romp was the way he kept getting stronger and was running through the wire as if he could have easily gone around again.

Nadal Bob Baffert

Blame—Ascending Angel, by Pulpit

Baffert would love to see them split the Arkansas Derby in order to run Charlatan as well and avoid a possible 14-horse field. Either way it will all depend on how much speed there is in the race and whether he can learn to slow it down a little early and come home in racehorse time. The is no questioning this colt’s brilliance and his overall talent, and now Baffert has until September to teach him to run like a Derby horse and not just a speed freak up to 1 1/16 miles. He is certainly bred to go on, so it’s all about harnessing some of that speed. With the No. 1, 6, 7, and 8 ranked horses all running in the Florida Derby he could find himself a lot higher up by next week.

Charlatan Bob Baffert

Speightstown—Authenticity , by Quiet American

Any horse who can begin his career pairing up “zero” Thoro-Graph figures has to be something special and maybe a little freaky. That is pretty much what he did, running a “zero” first time out and then a “1/4” second time out, in which he totally dominated his opponents from start to finish. He just has to show the same kind of ability against far better competition and convince the pedigree experts he could be one of those occasional Speightstowns who can stretch his speed out long distances. He has extremely efficient action and just floats over the ground, which should definitely help him stretch out. Not only was his sire a champion sprinter, but his broodmare sire is also inbred very close-up (2x3) to the legendary Dr. Fager.

Major Fed Greg Foley

Ghostzapper—Bobby's Babe, by Smart Strike

I put him ahead of Wells Bayou because, with the number of speed horses and stalkers and one deep closer, I am looking for a horse who has the turn of foot, the pedigree, and the class to launch a bid from mid-pack. A tardy start in the TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby (G2), in which he had his head turned at the break, cost him all position, but he still closed from 14th to finish fourth after being forced eight-wide turning for home. What I loved was the explosive move he made after being taken off the rail on the far turn, losing so much ground and shrugging off two solid bumps from Shake Some Action and then Enforceable in the stretch. The reason he couldn’t get closer than 4 3/4 lengths was because Wells Bayou was loose on an easy lead in :48 and 1:12.42 and came home his final three-sixteenths in a rapid :18.86. In his two races at two turns, Major Fed was two to three lengths off the lead and now he found himself a dozen lengths back in 14th and last. So this was a promising effort and he will be a lot more formidable when allowed to run his race, especially at 1 1/4 miles.

KNOCKING ON THE DOOR

Wells Bayou Brad Cox

Lookin At Lucky—Whispering Angel, by Hard Spun

I just couldn’t bring myself to put another speed horse in the Top 12. There is just so much you can say about a horse, whether it’s Wells Bayou, Authentic, Ete Indien, Nadal, or Charlatan, who are loose on an easy lead and never threatened. It just gets boring after a while. Blame it on my old school thinking. This no doubt is a very good horse who is improving with every start, but we just don’t know how any of these frontrunners are going to perform under pressure and whether they can win rating off the lead. To his credit he did, as mentioned earlier, come home very fast.

Three Technique Jeremiah Englehart

Mr Speaker—Nite in Rome, by Harlan's Holiday

Here is another mid-pack closer who was compromised by a wide trip in the Rebel Stakes and who is only going to get better as the year progresses. Like Major Fed, I have been touting this colt since his maiden victory, and he has already spent several weeks in the Top 12. I’m making up this list now having to look ahead more than five months. Just watch the move he makes on the far turn in the Rebel to charge into contention. That is the Three Technique to remember. It was no surprise that he got a little leg-weary in the stretch over a sloppy track after chasing fast fractions. Believe me we’re going to see a far better horse in five months when he’ll be able to finish off that move with a better trip. He will be back in the Top 12 soon enough.

Modernist Bill Mott

Uncle Mo—Symbolic Gesture, by Bernardini

I have to admit I am more impressed with this colt after his third in the Louisiana Derby than I was before the race. Breaking from the near-disastrous 14-post, he was five-wide on the first turn, was wide down the backstretch, tracking the pace in fourth, and put in a good run while four-wide on the second turn. He raced evenly the rest of the way, holding off Major Fed by a half-length for third. With stamina throughout his pedigree and being inbred to Roberto’s son Kris S., the sire of stamina influence Arch, Santa Anita Handicap (G1) winner Rock Hard Ten. BC Turf (G1T) winner Prized, and BC Distaff winner Hollywood Wildcat, you can expect Modernist to be peaking around Labor Day.

Attachment Rate Dale Romans

Hard Spun—Aristra, by Afleet Alex

Romans still hasn’t made any plans for the colt, so we can only project where he will be by Sept. 5. I still like everything I’ve seen, I thought his Gotham was an excellent learning experience and will move him forward, and he is only going to keep improving. The talent is there, as we saw in his maiden win and he has the pedigree to excel at longer distances.

Mystic Guide Mike Stidham

Ghostzapper—Music Note, by A.P. Indy

You likely never heard of him, but I believe this regally bred colt will be a major Kentucky Derby contender by late spring or summer, and will be ranked much higher once he beats winners. I love everything about this horse. He has run twice and both performances were extremely impressive. In his career debut at 6f, he ducked out at the start, was bumped soundly and dropped back to last. He made a strong move around horses, going six-wide, and was a bit green in the stretch, switching back to left lead. But he found his best stride and was flying at the end to finish third, galloping out some five lengths ahead of the winner. Stretching out to 1 1/16 miles at Fair Grounds, he was much more professional, turning in a flawless performance, again making a sweeping outside move, then switched leads on cue and drew off to win by five lengths, coming home in a brilliant :23 3/5 and :06 flat, with the rider never going to the whip, just throwing a couple of crosses on him. He has a smooth efficient stride and from the head-on he carries his legs perfectly straight under him. Godolphin’s Jimmy Bell said he had caught up to himself physically, is very professional, and is a push-button type of horse, which he showed in his maiden score. His pedigree is so strong we will have to get to that next week.

Max Player Linda Rice

Honor Code—Fools in Love, by Not For Love

He is a typical example of out of sight, out of mind, as no one is talking about him or his impressive come-from-behind victory in the Withers Stakes (G3) back on Feb. 1. He didn’t beat the most talented field, and his times have all been slow, but it’s difficult gauging final time at Aqueduct, which has been very slow since last fall. He has never run shorter than a mile, so even with only three career starts, he has a good foundation under him. I like his inbreeding to Secretariat and Buckpasser, and he gets a lot of toughness and mile speed from French Deputy and Verbatim in his female family.

Basin Steve Asmussen

Liam's Map—Appenzell, by Johannesburg

His pedigree suggests distance might be a problem, but his comeback third in the Rebel was very promising and there is no doubt he is an extremely talented horse, as he demonstrated in last year’s 6 1/2- length romp in the Runhappy Hopeful Stakes (G1). I did like the way he rated off the pace and outdueled Three Technique by a head for third. We will see how much he can improve off this effort in the Arkansas Derby if Asmussen decides to run him there.

Farmington Road Todd Pletcher

Quality Road—Silver La Belle, by Langfuhr

This could be Pletcher’s dark horse, who we would have learned a lot more about had he not drawn on the also-eligible list in the Louisiana Derby after closing from far back to finish fourth in a division of the Risen Star Stakes Presented by Lamarque Ford (G2). He has a strong closing punch but can run closer to the pace if he has to. He is a very late (May 14) foal and is only going to get better. He is another who is ranked in the Top 20 based on long-range projection.

STILL KNOCKING

You have to have new respect for Rebel Stakes runner-up EXCESSION, but he needs to show he can be just as effective on a fast track. Former Top 12 horse ENFORCEABLE closed OK in the Louisiana Derby, but after nine starts he has to move forward and keep moving forward. His last was a step backward. One performance that has gone completely unnoticed was that of the Rebel fifth-place finisher COACH BAHE, who was in a three-horse photo for third and was closing well in his first start ever on a fast dirt track following a win and a second in the slop. If the late-closing AJAAWEED can pick up a piece of it and be competitive in the Florida Derby he would have to be regarded as a long-range Derby contender. Look for continued improvement from the Todd Pletcher-trained TEXAS SWING, who ran a sneaky good third in the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby (G2) at 19-1 in only his third career start. By Curlin, out of a Tiznow mare, his future looks bright. One horse who has yet to run in a stakes, but has been very impressive so far is the maiden winner MISTER CANDY RIDE, who has demonstrated a devastating turn of foot in both his starts. You will hear from him soon enough. Bob Baffert’s forgotten horse AZUL COAST is a horse in desperate need of a race. He will win his share of races if Baffert can find a spot for him. I will discuss Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) winner FIELD PASS if and when he returns to the dirt, over which he has run the only poor race of his career.

HORSES SEEKING REDEMPTION

A couple of months ago, THOUSAND WORDS and ANNEAU D’OR were considered among the Top five Derby contenders, but are now looking to bounce back in the Santa Anita Derby from dismal performances. Both are working very well, and horses are entitled to one bad race. If they can bounce back with big performances they will be right back in contention. Also looking to bounce back from a disappointing effort is last year’s TVG Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner STORM THE COURT, who just needs to find out what his strengths are and apply them. He just is lacking an identity right now.

Don’t hold SILVER PROSPECTOR’S sixth-place finish in the Rebel against him, as he had to steady at a critical point in the upper stretch, which likely cost him a better position. He has already shown he is a top-class horse. We felt CHANCE IT should have taken his chances from an outside post in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) over the only track on which he has ever run, but instead took an even bigger chance trying the Tampa Bay surface a week later and showed nothing. Now we have no idea just where he stands in the Derby picture. Although he has been working brilliantly and is a grade 1 winner, EIGHT RINGS still has to rebound off a dreadful performance in the BC Juvenile.

Derby Dozen - March 17, 2020 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Blood-Horse Staff — Tue, 17 Mar 2020 17:16:00 GMT

With the Kentucky Derby moved to Sept. 5, we’ll have to be creative with the Derby Dozen, although as of now the major preps will still be run, including all three grade 1 preps -- the Curlin Florida Derby, Santa Anita Derby, and Arkansas Derby. Whether the Belmont Stakes (G1) will remain on schedule and serve as the target race, it is too early to tell, as NYRA is monitoring the situation.

Also, decisions will have to be made what to do with the Tvg.com Haskell Invitational (G1) and Runhappy Travers Stakes (G1), both of which likely will have to be moved, and whether the Preakness Stakes (G1) and Belmont remain as part of this year’s fall Triple Crown. Or will NYRA stand up to Churchill Downs' intrusion on their biggest day and keep the Travers and all the other grade 1's on that day. You can bet a lot of New York horsemen would still want to win the Midsummer Derby in all its normalcy more than a makeshift Kentucky Derby. So there is going to have to be a great deal of shifting and cramming all these races in from July to September. And what does NYRA do with the Jim Dandy Stakes (G2), the traditional prep for the Travers. These are all questions that will have to be addressed by the tracks involved.

In any event, we will continue to forge ahead with Derby Dozen this week, as it is already written, but with the Derby's postponement, it seems futile to fill Knocking on the Door with last week's losing performances, workouts from this week, and pertinent information relating to the Derby. In the meantime, the preps still to be run are prestigious races worth winning and could be used as preps for the Belmont if NYRA continues to race.

This Dozen will take into account the schedule change and where these horses could be four and a half months from now.

I will try to come up with some nostalgic Hangin' With Haskin columns to help us forget the current situation and look back at happier times.

Thank you all for your support and all your comments and opinions. The good news is that no one will lose money on the Derby this year…at least not for a while.

Tiz the Law Barclay Tagg

Constitution—Tizfiz, by Tiznow

He turned in a strong six-furlong work in 1:13 4/5 in company for the Curlin Florida Derby (G1). Despite the layoff, he looks to be fit and primed for a top effort. With horses dropping out of the Top 12 every week, it makes you wonder if perhaps it isn’t better to just not run and put all your eggs in one proverbial basket. But that no longer applies with a newly structured points system. With him at least, his Holy Bull (G3) victory was so brilliant and so fast on the various speed figures, he was in danger of peaking too early and benefited from the time off. He also had built a solid 2-year-old foundation in the Champagne Stakes (G1) and Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2). He just keeps looking better and better as the others race. But he should get tested in what promises to be a competitive Florida Derby.

Maxfield Brendan Walsh

Street Sense—Velvety, by Bernardini

Well, the Derby scene certainly has changed for him. He would have been No. 1 from the beginning had he not missed all that time and had no shot of making the Derby. Now that he has plenty of time and has been on a good work pattern, we will still go by the premise that he was the best 2-year-old in the country, he possesses an explosive turn of foot, and looks like the quintessential classic horse who should be in the shape of his life in August and September. And he did dust Gouverneur Morris in his only class test.

Sole Volante Patrick Biancone

Karakontie—Light Blow, by Kingmambo

Glad to see he bounced out of the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby (G2) in good shape, breezing a half a week later in :50.15. He is scheduled to run next in the Wood Memorial, so we will see what happens there. To be honest, it is getting tougher each year trying to assess the Derby merits of all these front-running winners, especially the Baffert trio, who bust out on the lead every race. Perhaps times are changing and closers in the Derby have become irrelevant, but I am depending on this guy to change that back to the way it was, as I believe the recent string of on-the-pace winners can be attributed to the number of sloppy tracks we’ve had. He did regress two points on Thoro-Graph in the Tampa Bay Derby. I can handle a regression after a three-point jump in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3), especially because he never got a chance to run until late, and I expect another substantial move forward in his next start.

Honor A. P. John Shirreffs

Honor Code—Hollywood Story, by Wild Rush

Who knows how good this big powerful lightly raced colt will be in September. His “3 1/4” speed figure on Thoro-Graph in the San Felipe (G2) was almost two points slower than Authentic’s, but it was a three-point jump from his previous start and off a layoff, so you would have to think there is still plenty of room for improvement. I admit you have to get used to his piston-like action, but he is extremely powerful through the shoulders, and knowing Shirreffs he was only interested in having him peak on Derby Day, as he did with Giacomo. But now he will have to peak four weeks earlier in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). The way he ran in the San Felipe, he could very well accomplish that.

Authentic Bob Baffert

Into Mischief—Flawless, by Mr. Greeley

One concern from a speed ratings standpoint going into the San Felipe was his two uninspiring Thor-Graph figures, but he alleviated those concerns with a strong “1 1/2,” which was a 3 1/2-point jump from his erratic Sham Stakes (G3) victory. Now the big question is, can he maintain or improve that number stretching out to nine furlongs? I could easily have put him ahead of Honor A.P., but I will wait for one more stretch-out. His pedigree is not geared toward longer distances, but his action and the little amount of energy he uses as he bounds along effortlessly should help him go longer. I believe he gets that from his inbreeding to Icecapade, who was fast enough to set a six-furlong track record of 1:08 flat, but wasn’t built like a sprinter and could carry his speed two turns, just like his blazingly fast half-sister Ruffian, who could carry her sprinter’s speed a mile and a half. The sire and broodmare sire of their dam, Shenanigans, were Native Dancer and Fighting Fox (a full-brother to Triple Crown winner Gallant Fox), both of whom had tremendous speed, but could carry it long distances.

King Guillermo Juan Avila

Uncle Mo—Slow Sand, by Dixieland Band

This is the one horse who now needs to be totally reevaluated, as the eight-week layoff and one 1 1/16-mile race in five months no longer applies. His jump from a pair of “7 1/4” Thoro-Graph figures on grass to a “zero” in the Tampa Bay Derby suggests that he could be any kind. And he sure did look impressive visually. He is physically striking in action. I am sure the speed sheets pundits are going to say he is a “bounce” candidate next time out and needs the time off, but who cares now? He has a lot of time to play with and should be dynamite come September. We really have no idea how good he is, and if he is superstar material, especially with his strong closing fractions of :23.84, :24.40, and :6.23 in the Tampa Bay Derby and running off from Sole Volante. So, we’ll move him up and see how he moves forward.

Gouverneur Morris Todd Pletcher

Constitution—Addison Run, by Unbridled's Song

He turned in a bullet five-furlong work in 1:00.51 in company. The Florida Derby has always been on his schedule, but Pletcher is noncommittal at this point and could very well opt instead for the grade 2 Wood Memorial, which probably makes more sense, considering the strength of the Florida Derby field and no need for points anymore. The Wood is likely to attract a sharp one-turn horse in Mischevious Alex and strong closers in Sole Volante and Max Player. I have had him high up since day one and am still clinging to the belief he is even more talented than he has shown, although I can’t fault any of his races. It was his maiden race that hooked me and I believe that is the real Gouverneur Morris. He took all the worst of it against Maxfield jumping to a two-turn grade 1 and did just what he had to in a workmanlike Tampa Bay allowance victory.

Ete Indien Patrick Biancone

Summer Front—East India, by Mizzen Mast

You have to wonder how fresh horses like Tiz the Law and Independence Hall, and a lightly raced horse like Gouverneur Morris, if he runs, are going to be able to handle his speed and his ability to run horses into the ground and just keep going. He pushed Tiz the Law to a huge speed figure in the Holy Bull and then demolished his field in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2), as he would have done in the Holy Bull had Tiz the Law not been in there. This is a fast, powerful horse who will be dangerous in the Florida Derby and wherever else he runs and at any distance. His opponents just have to make sure to stay close enough to him and not wait too long to go after him, as Tiz the Law showed in the Holy Bull.

Independence Hall Michael Trombetta

Constitution—Kalahari Cat, by Cape Town

Is anyone talking about him? Does anyone have him in their Top 10? He wasn’t in the NTRA Top 10. Should he have been 27-1 in the latest Future Wager based on one defeat to Sole Volante, in which he was ridden overconfidently and sent to the lead too soon? He went from undefeated sensation to an afterthought following that one defeat, in which he finished 11 1/4 lengths ahead of the third horse. I keep mentioning his upward move on the speed figures, and we’ll just have to see where he’s at in the Florida Derby. He continued his string of excellent works with a five-furlong breeze in 1:00 at Tampa Bay Downs, second fastest of 34 works at the distance. And remember, he should improve the farther he goes. He could be the overlooked gem of this bunch.

Nadal Bob Baffert

Blame—Ascending Angel, by Pulpit

Yes, I know he passed his two-turn test and probably is ranked too low, but I still want to see if he can rate off the pace, or rate at all. He just goes so fast early and slow late, I want to see him reverse that and look like more like a Derby horse. To withstand pressure going a half in :46 flat was impressive, but breaking from the rail, he was benefited by an inside bias, and his final time in the Rebel (G2) was the slowest of all the 1 1/16-mile races that day, and that included a 3-year-old allowance race and 3-year-old maiden race. And you can’t just dismiss his :27.06 fourth quarter, compared to :25.31 and :25.40 in the 3-year-old allowance and maiden races. He is an imposing presence and seemed to dwarf the other horses, and proved again he is a fighter. I am not doubting his ability; I just want to see him show another dimension in the Arkansas Derby (G1) even if it is rating on the lead and not going so fast early. But for now I have no reason to lower any of those above him.

Charlatan Bob Baffert

Speightstown—Authenticity , by Quiet American

I couldn’t see him winning the Derby off three lifetime starts and being a son of a champion sprinter. But that has all changed with him getting more time to mature and get battle-tested. What is apparent is that this colt can flat-out run and does it so effortlessly. But we have no idea who or what he beat in his 10 1/4-length stroll in the park in a one-mile allowance race that was run over a full second faster than the grade 1 Beholder Mile the same day. He also came home his last eighth in :12.90 compared to :14.08 in the Beholder Mile for older fillies. What was most impressive was how efficient a mover he is, as he bounds over the ground. We will just have to wait until his next few starts to see if this was all an illusion or not. As for Speightstown, he was a fast sprinter, but did sire Travers (G1) winner Golden Ticket, Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) winner Haynesfield, Belmont Derby (G1T) winner Force the Pass, and Hollywood Derby (G1T) winner Seek Again. Two of those were on the grass, but all were 1 1/4-mile races.

Enforceable Mark Casse

Tapit—Justwhistledixie, by Dixie Union

He turned in a solid half in :48 2/5 in preparation for the TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby (G2), in which he drew post 10, which should keep in out where he wants to be and out of trouble in a 14-horse field. With the speedy Wells Bayou breaking from post 3 and the front-running Ny Traffic and Modernist having to bust out of there from outside posts, he should have a decent pace at which to run. That is all he can ask for. If he gets it, and a clean trip and heads up ride by Julien Leparoux he should be a factor. He doesn’t have to win this, just be closing fast in the final furlong. He has a great deal of foundation now and should be an old pro come September.

KNOCKING ON THE DOOR

I am adding a No. 13 and 14 because I just didn’t want to drop Attachment Rate for no reason and am sticking with Three Technique.

Attachment Rate Dale Romans

Hard Spun—Aristra, by Afleet Alex

As I mentioned last week, I thought he ran an excellent race in the Gotham Stakes (G3), despite not being a one-turn horse and having to run hard every step of the way, while between horses. But I still go back a race to his runaway maiden victory in a sharp 1:35.03 for the mile, in which he earned a whopping 106 Equibase speed figure. I have him in the top 12 (sort of) for now because I can’t wait to see how he does going two turns, possibly in the Wood Memorial or Arkansas Derby. The Gotham was a perfect prep for him for his first two-turn race. His sire and broodmare sire both placed in the Kentucky Derby (G1) as did Alydar, to whom he is inbred, so perhaps it is up to him to finally get his family back in the win column.

Three Technique Jeremiah Englehart

Mr Speaker—Nite in Rome, by Harlan's Holiday

His fourth in the Rebel Stakes to me is a throwout, as he was four-wide into the first turn and raced four-wide the entire run down the backstretch and around the far turn. And I believe he doesn’t want to run that close to the pace, especially behind a testing :46 half-mile. He simply got a bit weary-legged in the slop and was running with his head cocked in the stretch. He is still very much a live horse, and I believe he will be a major force by September.

Others under the radar to watch are FARMINGTON ROAD, with his big closing kick, and MAJOR FED, who I have been touting since his maiden victory and should keep improving.

Three bombs for the Louisiana Derby are MAILMAN MONEY, who was compromised by a bad post in the Risen Star Stakes and still was beaten only 2 1/2 lengths; SHARECROPPER, who beat Excession in a maiden race and the had a terrible trip when finishing fourth in a good allowance race; and the versatile LYNN’S MAP, who drew poorly, but who trainer Mark Casse thinks could be his hidden treasure.

A quick mention of Rebel runner-up EXCESSION. Yes, he was 82-1, but never should have been anywhere near that. His best races were in the slop, including his only victory, and he was only beaten 1 3/4 lengths by Maxfield and 2 3/4 lengths by Mr. Monomoy. And in the Risen Star Stakes he broke through the gate. So this wasn’t that much of a shocker.

Derby Dozen - March 10, 2020 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Blood-Horse Staff — Tue, 10 Mar 2020 18:37:00 GMT

Tiz the Law Barclay Tagg

Constitution—Tizfiz, by Tiznow

He’s still hanging on to the top spot despite two months between races and battling a minor bruised foot. No one has matched his effort in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) or his speed ratings, so someone will have to step up big in the Curlin Florida Derby (G3). Layoff is of no concern because of the magnitude of his performance in the Holy Bull and his huge effort in the Champagne Stakes (G1). Until we can find a flaw in him he likely will remain right where he is. He had a sensational-looking work, sitting behind a workmate and blowing the doors off him, opening up some 10 lengths galloping out. The clockers got him five furlongs in a bullet 1:01.90.

Sole Volante Patrick Biancone

Karakontie—Light Blow, by Kingmambo

Sorry, I’m still a sucker for a strong closer, and the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby (G2) was nothing more than a learning experience in how to deal with traffic in a big field. And I have to take into account his final sixteenth in a swift :6.09 according to Trakus—that is flying. He is still the strongest closer of this crop and when it comes to the Derby you never know if those holes are going to open or not. You just trust your horse can learn to make his own holes. Biancone said he achieved what he was looking for. He told Florent Geroux to wait for traffic even if it closed up on him, just to teach him how to stop and go. He understands what a prep is. And he did have to wait with horses in front of him. But once he found room along the inside, Geroux said he just kept accelerating and he couldn’t pull him up. Yes, battle lost, but a step closer to winning the war. He still has another prep and should be much more battle-tested with this race behind him. And remember, only one horse in the last 19 years has won both the Sam F. Davis and Tampa Bay Derby, and that was Destin, who peaked too early and had to go straight into the Kentucky Derby off an eight-week layoff.

Honor A. P. John Shirreffs

Honor Code—Hollywood Story, by Wild Rush

He may not have turned in the best performance of the weekend, but he did turn in one of the best Derby performances of the weekend. Yes, Authentic beat him with something in reserve, but he was never touched by Mike Smith, who was not going to gut him trying to catch a fast, classy horse loose on an easy lead, especially coming off a five-month layoff. And he ran 24 feet farther than Authentic, according to Trakus. I loved the way he pulled away from the others and the way he galloped out. Although he has a lumbering type of stride, he generates a great deal of power from his shoulders as he gets down low and pushes forward with those long strides. I also liked the way he closed in on the far turn, made his run at Authentic and stayed with him the length of the stretch. At 1 1/16 miles, Authentic simply is too fast for him, especially controlling the race the way he did. I expect big improvement next time, which could lead to a peak performance on the first Saturday in May.

Authentic Bob Baffert

Into Mischief—Flawless, by Mr. Greeley

I’m sure a lot of people are going to be surprised he’s not ranked No. 1 or 2, but, although he may be the most gifted of the 3-year-olds, I still want to see a little more, such as how he handles pressure, if he can rate behind horses, and if he looks like he can overcome a pedigree not exactly geared toward 1 1/4 miles. With that said, he no doubt is immensely talented, but he couldn’t have had an easier time of it on an uncontested lead, in which he went the first half in :46.71 and the next half :50.18 before coming home his final sixteenth in :6.67. This was after a fairly mundane quarter in :25.57. So, time-wise, the San Felipe (G2) was a good race, but not exceptional. But visually, the first two finishers looked very good, so we’ll just wait until the Santa Anita Derby (G1) to see if we know more then. Yes, Authentic was only under a mild hand ride, but the runner-up wasn’t being pushed hard either. Unlike Honor A.P., he runs with gazelle-like strides, carries his head high, and is so light on his feet he exerts little energy while able to bound along effortlessly. In short, he seems to be all leg action and doesn’t need to generate a lot of power from the rest of his body.

Ete Indien Patrick Biancone

Summer Front—East India, by Mizzen Mast

He had a powerhouse two-minute lick on the turf course, in which he went in under two minutes and kept getting stronger the farther he went. The clockers actually caught him a half-mile in :50.85. This was geared to build up his stamina and he really looked strong doing it. Although he’s been one-dimensional since being switched to the dirt and obviously wants to be on the lead, he is the type who can run you into the ground and just keep going. His Brisnet pace figures are eye-catching. He has run triple-digit early and middle pace figures in all three of his dirt races and still was able to run a 99 late-pace figure in all three, which means he can run fast from start to finish and doesn’t get tired. Biancone has been putting a lot of bottom in him in his works and gallops. He will be tested in the Florida Derby, with horses like Tiz the Law, Independence Hall, and Gouverneur Morris all breathing down his neck.

Gouverneur Morris Todd Pletcher

Constitution—Addison Run, by Unbridled's Song

I admit that logic says this colt has no business being ranked this high and I can offer little statistically to back up the decision. From a speed rating standpoint he has run three times and earned a “5” on Thoro-Graph in all three races—good, but not competitive with the leading contenders and no improvement from his first start. Also, his last Brisnet figure ranks 17th among the 23 Future Wager betting interests, and it's also his career-high figure. And I'm not crazy about the schedule he's on getting to the Derby. So, why have I ranked him so high? Strictly gut feeling based on the eye test, and sometimes it's tough to let go of that despite logic and stats telling you you're off base. With some heavy hitters expected for the Florida Derby, he better pick up some big points if he’s going to make the Derby cut. I can’t help it, I just have faith in this colt’s upside and believe he can do it. He’ll have to prove me wrong.

Independence Hall Michael Trombetta

Constitution—Kalahari Cat, by Cape Town

A lot of people have dismissed him for some reason, but I believe he is a very live contender, and I was tempted to rank him higher. We discussed his monster Thoro-Graph number last year and his progression back toward that number this year. Well, his Brisnet figures show the same progression, and in his last three starts, his late pace figures are 102, 102, and 99, which show this colt does have a strong closing punch and uses it consistently. Remember, in his only defeat to Sole Volante he was given an overconfident ride, going to the lead too soon, and still finished 11 1/4 lengths ahead of third-place finisher, the grade 2-placed Ajaaweed. He continued to build his foundation, working seven furlongs in 1:28 at Tampa Bay Downs. The only thing keeping him at No. 7 and not higher is inactivity. It wouldn’t surprise me if he’s No. 1 or No. 2 after the Florida Derby.

Three Technique Jeremiah Englehart

Mr Speaker—Nite in Rome, by Harlan's Holiday

He’ll have his work cut out for him in the Rebel Stakes (G2) whether Oaklawn Park splits it or not, as he’ll have to contend with several live shippers from California, the intriguing No Parole from Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots, and a strong local contingent. This is the last spot for horses needing two more starts. I have always had a great deal of faith in this colt, and I still do, especially knowing he doesn’t need to win this, just be closing in the final furlong. He still has the Arkansas Derby (G1) ahead of him. He is coming off a career-high Brisnet speed figure and has already registered late-pace figures of 103, 101, and 99, so we know he has the closing punch.

Nadal Bob Baffert

Blame—Ascending Angel, by Pulpit

He continues to work up a storm as he tries to convince people he is something special. He very well may be, but, although I have no doubt he will handle two turns with no problem, he still has to go out and do it, and over a strange surface. His five-furlong work in a bullet :59 3/5 was the fastest of 58 works at the distance. He is an imposing presence, and in his work he sat right off the flank of his workmate, then easily drew off by four lengths before going out very strongly past the wire. If he can rate, as he’s done in his works, and show the same speed and brilliance stretching out in distance and then run off from what promises to be a strong and competitive field, then we are talking serious Derby horse.

Silver Prospector Steve Asmussen

Declaration of War—Tap Softly, by Tapit

He is sort of the silent assassin of this group. Not many know he’s around. He’s run eight times, has never been the favorite, and you just never know when he’s going to strike or how. He has come from first, second, third, fifth, sixth, seventh, eighth, and ninth, so it doesn’t matter where he is running. And, yes, he’s beaten Tiz the Law, has won graded stakes at Oaklawn and Churchill Downs on fast and sloppy tracks, and has hit the board in seven of his eight starts. I won’t even begin to predict what he’s going to do in the Rebel Stakes. He’s not one of the faster horses, but don’t make any mistakes when you go against him.

Attachment Rate Dale Romans

Hard Spun—Aristra, by Afleet Alex

I know I'm alone on this one, but I liked what I saw in the Gotham Stakes (G3), his second straight race at a flat mile. In his first stakes appearance, he was forced to run hard, while stuck between horses, every step of way down the backstretch. Instead of tiring, as would most horses coming off a maiden win, he kept improving his position along the inside and was stuck on his left lead in the stretch, but switched late and rallied to just miss second. Romans ran him back at one turn because he realizes a horse needs speed going up against Baffert. There is no doubt he will be much more effective going two turns. This was another deep, tiring track at Aqueduct Racetrack, so forget times and fractions. He has already run a powerful 106 Equibase speed figure and jumped from a “10” to a “4” on Thoro-Graph, so we know he’s fast and is improving. I did like the way he pulled away from a top closer in Montauk Traffic in the final furlong and missed by a head of catching Untitled for second.

Enforceable Mark Casse

Tapit—Justwhistledixie, by Dixie Union

He finally returned to the work tab, breezing five furlongs in a solid 1:01 for the TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby (G2). With eight lifetime starts, six of them two-turn races, Casse said the three-week vacation was by design. He obviously does not need a lot of work and has never been an eye-catching worker anyway. With his style of running, just give him a strong pace and a clear outside path and that’s all you can ask for. You know he’s going to give you all he has and will be closing at the end.

KNOCKING ON THE DOOR

I know by now you’re wondering where the heck is KING GUILLERMO? Well, he was originally going to be ranked No. 8 or 9 this week after his stunning upset victory in the Tampa Bay Derby until reports came out that he will go straight to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1). That would mean going into the Derby off an eight-week layoff and never having run farther than 1 1/16 miles. To accomplish that would be unprecedented in modern times. And he still has to be nominated to the Triple Crown. We know very little about his trainer Juan Carlos Avila, who came here recently from Venezuela. I will have to admit I have no idea what to make of this horse other than he never should have been 49-1 in the Tampa Bay Derby. Not only had he run a good third to Sole Volante in the Pulpit Stakes, he was going grass to dirt and had worked a strong five-eighths in :59.69 over a sloppy Gulfstream Park dirt track on Feb. 22. He had a perfect stalking trip behind a 21-1 shot, opened a clear lead with no problem, and just kept going, as most of the top contenders never were a factor. That is the danger of running at Tampa. You never know who is going to handle the track and who is going to flounder over it.

So he really didn’t have to work hard for this, as Sole Volante was far back and stuck behind traffic. But give him credit for taking advantage of the situation and catching everyone flat-footed. He just may be that good, we really don’t know. He’ll have to be if he is going to be a factor in the Derby off such a long layoff and not a single nine-furlong race under him. If they change their mind and decide to run in another race he likely will return to the Top 12.

Another winner over the weekend who remains a bit of a mystery is Gotham winner MISCHEVIOUS ALEX, who has now won three stakes in a row, all by daylight, but who is a major question mark going much farther. They have come too far now to back off, so expect to see him give it a go in the Wood Memorial (G2). In the Gotham, he showed he could sit behind horses, which is a big plus, and was never threatened, maintaining a two-length advantage to the wire. There isn’t much else to say other than we will just have to wait to see if he can take the next step.

We lost two major contenders with the disappointing efforts of THOUSAND WORDS, and to a lesser extent, STORM THE COURT in the San Felipe Stakes. Neither did nearly enough to remain in the Top 12. It is interesting to note that Thousand Words was coming into the San Felipe dropping from a respectable “4” and “3 3/4” on Thoro-Graph to a “6 1/2" in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3), although he did earn a 107 Equibase figure. He never looked like a particularly fast horse, mainly due to his low action and long strides and doing just enough to win. But he did win, which is why it was so surprising to see him drop right out of contention midway on the far turn. Sure he can rebound, but you can’t get beat over 11 lengths in March and remain a leading Derby contender.

As for Storm the Court, he didn’t run horribly, but he still was unable yet again to show us a definitive running style that he can call effective. The form of the TVG Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) has completely deteriorated. He obviously doesn’t have the pure speed to be a confirmed frontrunner and he doesn’t have the closing punch to sit just off the pace and rally in the stretch. So until he can find his identity and figure out how to beat top-class horses we’ll just have to put him on hold and see where he goes from here.

A quick shout out to TEXAS SWING, who ran a solid third in the Tampa Bay Derby and who made an excellent appearance in the post parade. By Curlin, out of a Tiznow mare, we’re talking three Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) wins and a horse who should definitely keep getting better.

If you’re looking for a potential live horse at enticing odds in the Rebel Stakes, keep an eye on AMERICAN THEOREM, who hasn’t run since finishing a well-beaten second in the American Pharoah Stakes (G1) to Eight Rings. This is based on his most recent work, which was a standout. The son of American Pharoah worked six furlongs in company in 1:13 with his rider high in saddle and actually pulling back on the reins as the horse did everything on his own. He was extending his stride beautifully coming to the wire and galloped out strongly and a long way. We’ll find out if he’s ready for this test and if he’s as good as he looked in his work.

We saw a potential English invader this week, as the German-bred CHARES captured the Kentucky Derby Conditions Race by 1 1/4 lengths under 131 pounds to remain undefeated in four starts. His breeding is completely unknown to Americans and his first three races were in the French provinces before he was sold. One interesting link to America is his maternal great-grandsire Orpen, who is a son of two-time Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1T) winner and Hall of Famer Lure.

It looks like Dick Mandella will be heading abroad again, as he plans on sending TIZAMAGICIAN to Dubai for the UAE Derby (G2), where he likely will face fellow Americans SHOTSKI and FORE LEFT. The son of Tiznow, who turned in a strong six-furlong work in 1:13 3/5, has excellent tactical speed, which is important at Meydan, and is bred to go the distance. The Americans will be trying to emulate last year’s 1-2 finish by Plus Que Parfait and Gray Magician.

If you’re looking for a real sleeper for the future book, you could make a killing on FARMINGTON ROAD, who was four-wide on the first turn from post 10 in the first division of the Risen Star Stakes Presented by Lamarque Ford (G2) and eight-wide on the second turn, yet still rallied strongly way out in the middle of the of the track to finish fourth. The son of Quality Road has a big closing kick from far back, but also broke his maiden at Tampa Bay coming from three lengths back. If I was making a future book bet at monster odds I would certainly take a shot with him. Watch out for this guy.

Bob Baffert certainly can’t complain about the way his 3-year-olds are working. The exciting and brilliant CHARLATAN, who is way behind the others, looked like a powerhouse working six furlongs in 1:12 3/5, in which he sat a half-length off his workmate, with his rider up in the saddle. He took the lead nearing the quarter pole and drew off at will, finishing some nine to 10 lengths in front, then just kept going an eighth past the wire, while hugging the rail.

The more seasoned and accomplished EIGHT RINGS worked six furlongs in 1:11 4/5, demolishing his workmate and striding out beautifully, then followed that up with another strong six-furlong work in 1:12, as Baffert continues to put a lot of bottom in him. Another speedy type, HIGH VELOCITY, who has been totally forgotten, worked six furlongs in 1:12 3/5, while El Camino Real Derby winner AZUL COAST worked five furlongs in 1:00 2/5 for the Sunland Derby (G3).

Kiaran McLaughlin has one final chance to make a splash on the Derby trail before taking over Luis Saez’ book on April 1 when he sends out AJAAWEED in the Louisiana Derby. The son of Curlin worked five furlongs in 1:01 4/5 at Palm Meadows Training Center.

The intriguing NO PAROLE sharpened for the Rebel Stakes by working a half in a sprightly :47 3/5, second fastest of 107 works at the distance. MAXFIELD is up to five furlongs in his works, having an easy breeze in 1:02.25.

Derby Dozen - March 3, 2020 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Michelle Benson — Tue, 03 Mar 2020 14:57:00 GMT

Tiz the Law Barclay Tagg

Constitution—Tizfiz, by Tiznow

Well, you can't say Ete Indien's performance in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) didn't flatter him, His minor foot bruise in late February demonstrated the importance of having a solid 2-year-old foundation to fall back on in case of a setback and also going the Holy Bull -- Florida Derby route as opposed to the Fountain of Youth -- Florida Derby route gave him the leeway he needed. If Tagg had chosen the latter route, he would have had to do some major scrambling and altering of plans, including scrapping the Florida Derby, for which he would not have been able to have a prep. Now he still has a month to the Florida Derby, with a monster performance already behind him. It was great to see him return to the work tab, breezing an easy half in :50.

Sole Volante Patrick Biancone

Karakontie—Light Blow, by Kingmambo

Now it's up to him to go out there and match his stablemate's performance when he returns to Tampa for the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby (G2). Based on running style and overall professionalism, he seems to be more of a Derby horse, but unlike Ete Indien, he needs a good solid pace in order to use his devastating late kick. This is turning into a powerful one-two punch for Biacone, with both horses complimenting each other's running style. After the Tampa Derby, Biancone no doubt will separate the two, with one going to the Xpressbet.com Florida Derby (G1) and other likely to the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G2).

Ete Indien Patrick Biancone

Summer Front—East India, by Mizzen Mast

We are witnessing a remarkable resurgence by Biancone. Give him credit for his handling of this colt, working him long on the grass and putting him in front. It paid off when he broke like shot from post 10, made his way to the rail and controlled the race before bounding away to an 8 1/2-length victory. What thrilled Biancone was the way he was rushed to the front and instead of getting headstrong, he came right back to Florent Geroux "like a sweet boy." Biancone is a veteran and did not let the outside post scare him and force him to completely alter his colt's schedule. And credit Geroux for a masterful ride. He got him to relax on the lead, then burst well clear of the field on the turn, and kept to an occasional right-handed whip when the colt drifted wide. Despite the drifting, he still came home in a solid :6.58 for the final sixteenth. You like to see them run a bit straighter in the stretch, but he definitely has a bright future.

Gouverneur Morris Todd Pletcher

Constitution—Addison Run, by Unbridled's Song

With Tiz the Law, Ete Indien or Sole Volante, and Independence Hall all heading for the Florida Derby, he better be as good as he's cranked up to be if he is going to earn enough points to get in the Kentucky Derby. His connections obviously are confident he's good enough or they wouldn't have relied on such a tough race in which to earn his ticket. I share that confidence or I wouldn't have him ranked this high based on a limited body of work. He should be ready for a big effort. We'll just have to see if it's big enough. In his last work he galloped to the pole throwing his head around quite a bit but quickly settled in stride while racing inside the promising Farmington Road. Both colts finished together, getting the half in :49.50, and galloping out well.

Thousand Words Bob Baffert

Pioneerof the Nile—Pomeroys Pistol, by Pomeroy

I keep getting the feeling I have him and Authentic reversed, as his stablemate seems to be getting a lot more buzz. But he's been just ahead of him the last several weeks, and no use changing now when the San Felipe Stakes (G2) will decide which one is Baffert's best Derby hope. He doesn't have his stablemate's brilliance, but that shouldn't come into play when the distances stretch out. Baffert has him sharp, breezing him five furlongs in :59 4/5, in which he crushed the older stakes horse Dr. Dorr. It's not as if he is guaranteed to stay the mile and a quarter, but he appears to have more of the tools needed to stretch out that far, especially the way he conserves energy. And we know he'll fight when he has to. So, a defeat at the hands of his stablemate in the 1 1/16-mile San Felipe would not mean he's any less of a Derby horse.

Authentic Bob Baffert

Into Mischief—Flawless, by Mr. Greeley

Catching up with his six-furlong work in 1:12 4/5 last week, let's just say if he runs back to that work, he is going to take a lot of beating in the San Felipe. The two main questions surrounding him have been his pedigree and his maturity. His talent is undeniable. In this last work, he cornered beautifully and ran a perfectly straight course the entire length of the stretch, doing everything professionally. So there is no reason to think we won't see him at his very best. He followed that work up by breezing another six furlongs in 1:12 4/5. Pedigree won't be an issue until the first Saturday in May, if it is then, and now, after this last work, he gives one confidence that his antics in the Sham Stakes (G3) when he ducked in sharply twice were an aberration.

Independence Hall Michael Trombetta

Constitution—Kalahari Cat, by Cape Town

Trombetta has decided not to face Sole Volante at Tampa again, even though it has been his home track, and instead will wait for the Florida Derby, which will be a far tougher test, at least in terms of depth. He did have another solid work at Tampa, breezing five furlongs in 1:01. As I have been saying, a major strong point in handicapping him is that he has a powerful "negative-2" Thoro-Graph number from last year to fall back on, and looks to be on a forward progression heading back toward that figure, which is still the fastest figure registered by a member of this crop.

Storm the Court Peter Eurton

Court Vision—My Tejana Storm, by Tejano Run

I had him ranked very high early on and I still have this nagging feeling I have him ranked too low now, despite the fact no one is exactly fawning over him. But his fourth, beaten only 2 1/4 lengths, in the San Vicente Stakes (G2) after pressing fractions of :21.81 and :44.09, was much stronger than one might think. He was scheduled to run in the Rebel Stakes, but Eurton changed his mind after working him five furlongs in a bullet :59 2/5, fastest of 60 works at the distance – opting for the San Felipe March 7. Joel Rosario replaces Flavien Prat, who rides Thousand Words. I just want to see him show a distinct running style and be right there at the finish. If he gets beat he should improve when he stretches out to 1 1/8 miles. The San Vicente should have sharpened him, so he can either use his speed on or just off the lead or to accelerate from off the pace. But he has to be running strongly in the final furlong.

Three Technique Jeremiah Englehart

Mr Speaker—Nite in Rome, by Harlan's Holiday

I remain stubborn when it comes to this colt. I firmly believe he is top-class and will be up to the task when he faces a strong field of shippers and locals in the Rebel Stakes. I have been on his bandwagon since his maiden win last year. I just want to see him closing in the stretch and will leave the winning to the more brilliant colts. But he sure showed brilliance of his own when he blazed a half in a bullet :46 flat, galloping out five furlongs in :59.20, fastest of 83 works at the distance. So let's just say a victory by him would not exactly shock me. He may be another one I have ranked too low even though many feel he is ranked too high. I'll jet let him decide who is right.

Silver Prospector Steve Asmussen

Declaration of War—Tap Softly, by Tapit

He hasn't been on the worktab since his victory in the Southwest Stakes (G3), so just waiting for him to resume serious training. We discussed his RF (Rasmussen Factor) inbreeding to the mare Ruby Slippers, but he is also inbred to Fappiano, Nijinsky II, Blushing Groom, and of course Mr. Prospector. He is rock solid and does have a victory over Tiz the Law in the slop, so at least we know he's been keeping good company. The one-time Asmussen army has been whittled down, as one would expect, but he keeps taking significant steps forward.

Enforceable Mark Casse

Tapit—Justwhistledixie, by Dixie Union

It feels great to put him back in the Top 12. He's a rarity today; he actually runs. Casse said he reminds him of War of Will in that both have a lot of education under their belt, and it's important not to be playing catch-up. Casse recalled telling owner John Oxley last year that this colt could be something special. But it wasn't until the LeComte Stakes (G3) that the light went on. Before the race, assistant trainer David Carroll told Casse, "They're going to pay hell beating this horse. This is a different horse." And he showed it, even in his defeat in the Risen Star, which was one of his best efforts. In short, this is the kind of horse you love having in your barn.

Nadal Bob Baffert

Blame—Ascending Angel, by Pulpit

OK, with the Rebel getting closer it's time to give in and put him in position to climb up the rankings. And he will do that once he excels going two turns. Baffert sure is putting bottom in him, working him seven furlongs in 1:25.20 in company, and he did it like a seasoned come from behind horse. With Blame on top and serious stamina influences Pleasant Colony and Stage Door Johnny on bottom, he should have no problem going longer. There is no doubting his speed and natural ability, but it's time to show who he really is as a serious Derby contender. He showed a lot coming back only three weeks after a huge maiden victory and withstanding a brutal :44.09 half. But other than Storm the Court we're not quite sure what he beat in the San Vicente. That will all be cleared up in the next two weeks.

KNOCKING ON THE DOOR

Dale Romans no doubt is crushed over the inexplicably poor performance by DENNIS’ MOMENT in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, but before you feel too sorry for him, he does have a secret weapon ready to launch his way into the Kentucky Derby picture. I have been very high on ATTACHMENT RATE, who looked like the real deal in his stunning maiden victory in the slop at Gulfstream, in which he ran the mile in 1:35.03, winning by 6 1/4 widening lengths. Although it was a maiden race, his 106 Equibase speed figure was one point slower than Nadal in the grade 2 San Vicente Stakes and one point slower than Thousand Words in the grade 2 Robert B. Lewis Stakes.

The son of Hard Spun, out of an Afleet Alex mare, has demonstrated an explosive turn of foot that he can use anywhere in the race. I thought Romans might look for a two-turn stakes but he is listed as a probable for the one-mile Gotham Stakes March 7, which could set him beautifully for either the Wood Memorial (G2) or Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G2). Romans gave him a good sharpener, working him a half in :48.17 at Gulfstream Park.

No one can say whether the scratch of CHANCE IT in the Fountain of Youth Stakes because of post position was the right decision or wrong decision for that horse, but we saw what happened with Ete Indien, so it is a decision that they will have to live with, at least for the next week. Now the colt likely will have to run twice away from his favorite track unless he goes in the Tampa Bay Derby and then wheels back in three weeks. They just have to hope he's not one of those horses who dislikes the quirky Tampa Bay track. He did remain sharp with a bullet half-mile drill in :47.28. It’s tough when you completely alter your schedule even though your horse is sound and ready to run a big race. He’s never run anywhere other than Gulfstream, so we'll just have to see how it all works out. If he handles the surface he should be tough to beat.

Now Chance It has another shot to knock off another Derby contender, but he is not the only threat to Sole Volante. We could see a potential star emerge in recent maiden winner SPA CITY, another I wrote about extensively after his maiden victory, in which he showed his toughness defeating UNRIGHTEOUS, who could be special. I wrote after that maiden race that Unrighteous should bypass claiming races and go right into a stakes. I never suggest that, but he ran a monster race, his Thoro-Graph numbers rocketing from a "14 1/4" to a "2." He was a bit green in the stretch and now gets blinkers. And remember, Unrighteous finished 14 3/4 lengths ahead of the third horse. This could be Todd Pletcher's secret weapon. Spa City, owned by Godolphin, has excellent tactical speed and is bred to carry it a long way. This may very well turn into the key maiden race of the year, with Spa City getting a "1" on Thoro-Graph. Pletcher likely will be banking on the lightly raced MARKET ANALYSIS, who beat Attachment Rate in his only career start. He could be any kind, but his Thoro-Graph number was slow, and even if he wins he will have to go into the Kentucky Derby off only three lifetime starts.

It's been a long wait, but the return of runaway Runhappy Hopeful Stakes (G1) winner BASIN is getting closer, as indicated by his stunning five-furlong work in a bullet :59 1/5 at Fair Grounds, followed by a powerful six-furlong work in 1:12. His expected return in the March 14 Rebel Stakes highlights what should be a fascinating race with horses shipping in from around the country. Just remember, however, with names like Liam's Map, Trippi, Johannesburg, Hennessy, and Gallant Romeo in Basin’s pedigree, that's a lot of speed to overcome. But he is very talented.

In addition to Basin, those who look to be headed to Oaklawn Park are California invader NADAL, the intriguing NO PAROLE shipping in from Fair Grounds, and SILVER PROSPECTOR, THREE TECHNIQUE, ANSWER IN, WELLS BAYOU, and the impressive maiden winner BACKGROUND. No Parole added to the intrigue when he worked six furlongs in an eye-catching 1:11 1/5 at Fair Grounds. We have no clue how good this horse is, as he has been running against Louisiana-breds. But his pedigree is all Kentucky and he looks the part in action.

Bob Baffert’s pair of Authentic and Thousand Words will be getting most of the attention in the San Felipe Stakes, but there are other serious horses in Southern California who can either challenge them or be major factors elsewhere. Peter Eurton has changed his mind and will run STORM THE COURT in the San Felipe instead of the Rebel Stakes. The others are the much talked about HONOR A.P., the impressive maiden winner who breezed five furlongs in 1:01 4/5; the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G2) runner-up ROYAL ACT, who worked six furlongs in 1:13 1/5 in company with older stakes winner Draft Pick and looks to be headed to the TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby (G2); and FAST ENOUGH, the Cal Cup Derby winner who shortened back to a sprint and ran a game third behind Nadal in the San Vicente Stakes, outrunning Storm the Court for the show spot. Also, don’t overlook the Dick Mandella-trained TIZAMAGICIAN, who probably needed the race when finishing a close fourth in the Robert B. Lewis and should show improvement next time out. He showed his sharpness working five furlongs in 1:00 1/5.

So even with Nadal skipping town, the California-based 3-year-olds look loaded. And remember, Baffert also has El Camino Real Derby winner AZUL COURT likely headed to the Sunland Derby (G3) after breezing a half in :47 2/5, and also CHARLATAN, HIGH VELOCITY and EIGHT RINGS looking for spots. One major player from last year who is nearing his 3-year-old debut in California is the American Pharoah colt AMERICAN THEOREM, runner-up in the grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes who turned in a huge six-furlong work in 1:12 1/5. Also likely headed to the Sunland Derby is the impressive maiden winner GREAT POWER, who has been working brilliantly for Simon Callaghan.

One horse in whom I have a particular interest and have been touting strongly since he broke his maiden on Jan. 1 is MAJOR FED. I think I actually salivated when I first saw his pedigree. As much as I love this colt, even I was pleasantly surprised when he finished second in a division of the Risen Star Stakes, which elevated him to the role of Derby contender. Now he gets to stretch out to 1 3/16 miles in the Louisiana Derby, and we know he’s the sharpest he’s ever been by his last work, a half in a bullet :47, fastest of 108 works at the distance. That was a huge move for the son of Ghostzapper.

Also looking to take advantage of the longer distance of the Louisiana Derby is the late-running AJAAWEED, who breezed five furlongs in 1:01.80. This is a horse crying out for distance and pace.

It is really a shame that it appears MAXFIELD will come up just a bit short of making the Kentucky Derby, as he had made great strides in the morning. In his most recent work he breezed a half in a bullet :48.45, fastest of 41 works at the distance. Although his connections have not officially ruled out the Derby, he would have to go right into a 100-point race off a long layoff and an injury and run in the Derby with only one prep, and you know they are not going to subject the colt to that.

Derby Dozen - February 25, 2020 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Blood-Horse Staff — Tue, 25 Feb 2020 15:03:00 GMT

Tiz the Law Barclay Tagg

Constitution—Tizfiz, by Tiznow

Is waiting two months between races the right way to go? He had a monster Thoro-Graph leap to run a career-high negative number; his Brisnet numbers show an equally huge leap; he will have five career starts; and has a strong 2-year-old foundation. It seems like the way to go. Let's take advantage of this slow week to go over his pedigree. He is by the hottest young sire in the country, Constitution, a son of Tapit. His dam was sired by Tiznow, who won two Breeders' Cup Classics, and her broodmare sire, Go For Gin, won the Kentucky Derby (G1). Go For Gin's two grandsires, His Majesty and Stage Door Johnny, are two of the most potent classic and stamina influences in the country. And Tiz the Law's third dam is a half-sister to Horse of the Year and 2-year-old champion Favorite Trick, who won graded stakes from six furlongs to 1 1/8 miles.

Sole Volante Patrick Biancone

Karakontie—Light Blow, by Kingmambo

I still can't find a hole in him. He has used his explosive late run at 7 1/2 furlongs and one mile on grass and at one mile and 1 1/16 miles on dirt on two totally different surfaces and he's won his three races drawing off. In his Pulpit Stakes victory, he came home his last half in about :45 3/5. His Beyer figures are getting faster with each race, and his pedigree says he will get better the farther he goes. And remember, the Churchill Downs dirt track is conducive to grass horses. Remember, though, he is a gelding and very few geldings have won the Derby. But go ahead and tell him that.

Dennis' Moment Dale Romans

Tiznow—Transplendid, by Elusive Quality

Finally, the waiting is over, as he makes his long-awaited 3-year-old debut in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2). Going against some fast and classy horses, such as Chance It, your guess is as good as mine what we're going to see. He either has fooled everyone or he is as good as he's looked on his best days. I do know that Romans has been raving about this colt since last August. I have seen him talk up his horses numerous times, but never quite to this extent that early. Flavien Prat picks up the mount. His last work, a half in :48.05, was flawless, as he cornered beautifully, was really extending his stride, and galloped out strong.

Gouverneur Morris Todd Pletcher

Constitution—Addison Run, by Unbridled's Song

His high placing is not based on his record or statistics as much as it is an overall feeling that he is a gifted colt, who still has a way to go before he reaches maturity. That’s why I do have a concern about his having only one more start. Can he be battle-tested by May 2? You're also playing Russian roulette with the points when you have to depend on a first- or second-place finish in a grade 1 with only three career starts behind you, Sidelined for four months from 2 to 3, he is not going to have a strong racing foundation under him, taking the easier route in a Tampa allowance race, and he may need to be toughened up to hold up to the rigors of the Derby. But I just can't look past his untapped ability that could bust out at any time. It is up to Pletcher to make sure he gets enough points in the Curlin Florida Derby (G1) and then have him peak on the first Saturday in May.

Thousand Words Bob Baffert

Pioneerof the Nile—Pomeroys Pistol, by Pomeroy

We know he's not going to leave your jaw dropping, but he seems to have gotten lost in the rapidly-growing Baffert battalion, with horses who have shown more brilliance. It seems to be a relay team, with Eight Rings passing the baton to High Velocity, who passed it to Thousand Words, who passed it to Authentic, who passed it to Nadal, with each horse being less experienced than the one before. Has Nadal already passed it to Charlatan, with only a single start? Like so many others this year, we have no idea how good this colt is. We do know he's a fighter and extremely professional. He certainly wasn't flattered by Anneau d'Or's last start, but that was too bad to be true. Will Baffert be bold enough to have him and Authentic settle the score in the San Felipe Stakes (G2)? It looks as if he has Nadal headed to Oaklawn, so we'll see.

Authentic Bob Baffert

Into Mischief—Flawless, by Mr. Greeley

I normally would not put a horse that showed such greenness in his last start this high up, especially with his pedigree. But he is here mainly because of Baffert's rave reviews. He knows a lot more about his horses than I do, and he has proven that there is no one better assessing the talent in his barn. The fact that was able to romp in the Sham Stakes (G3) despite his antics in the stretch suggests Baffert could very well be right about him. Looking at him physically and the way he glides over the ground with gazelle-like strides, he could very well be the type who can outrun his pedigree.

Independence Hall Michael Trombetta

Constitution—Kalahari Cat, by Cape Town

As I stated last week, he looks to be headed toward some huge efforts based on his Thoro-Graph figures. And if you have any reservations about his pedigree because his second dam is a full sister to grade 1 sprinter Desert Stormer, note that his broodmare sire, Capetown, won the Florida Derby and is by Seeking the Gold, out of Kentucky Oaks (G1) winner Seaside Attraction, who has had five foals, five winners, four stakes winners and one champion (Golden Attraction). Also, Independence Hall's third dam is by Damascus, whose stamina usually comes through his fillies,

Storm the Court Peter Eurton

Court Vision—My Tejana Storm, by Tejano Run

He still has a lot of non-believers, especially since the form of the TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) hasn't held up all that well. I still believe in him because he is my poster child for 3-year-olds starting off in a sprint. And you have to think the San Vicente Stakes (G2) sharpened him up nicely, sitting right behind a blistering opening half-mile. He's not going to have an easy time of it in the San Felipe with a number of talented horses pointing for that race, but if he can turn in a big effort and perhaps define his best running style, he should move forward when the distances stretch out.

Silver Prospector Steve Asmussen

Declaration of War—Tap Softly, by Tapit

With him being a newcomer to the Top 12 after major victories at Churchill Downs and Oaklawn Park, let's check out his pedigree. His sire traveled from Europe and was beaten two noses in the Breeders' Cup Classic. He is an inbreeding bonanza, with his most interesting inbreeding coming from Ruby Slippers through Tap Your Heels, the dam of Tapit, and champion sprinter Rubiano, the broodmare sire of War Front. That gives him the Rasmussen Factor, being inbred to a top-class mare. He is also inbred to Fappiano, Nijinsky II, Blushing Groom, and Mr. Prospector, and his tail-female line traces to Hail to Reason through the hard-knocking Mr. Leader. His third dam is by Dr. Carter, winner of the 1 1//4-mile Gulfstream Park Handicap.

Three Technique Jeremiah Englehart

Mr Speaker—Nite in Rome, by Harlan's Holiday

I am returning him to No. 10 now that he has worked and is right on target for the Rebel Stakes. He looks to be improving at the right time, has never been worse than second in five career starts, and he is coming off a career-high 96 Brisnet speed figure and a career-high "2 1/2" Thoro-Graph figure. One more forward move and he's right there with the fastest 3-year-olds. He is already right there with Sole Volante and Independence Hall.

Ete Indien Patrick Biancone

Summer Front—East India, by Mizzen Mast

We’ll know more about him after the Fountain of Youth Stakes when he takes on Dennis’ Moment, Chance It and other quality horses. He certainly can bolster the chances of the “all others” in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager with a big effort. Biancone has put a good deal of bottom under him, working him short on the dirt and long on the grass, with a pair of fast seven-furlong drills, and I expect him to make his presence felt.

Mr. Monomoy Brad Cox

Palace Malice—Drumette, by Henny Hughes

He no doubt is improving with every race and could be better than many think, but it must be pointed out that he has won two of his five career starts and those two wins are the only times he set the pace, the last over a track conducive to speed. So, although he has shown a great of promise and defeated two top-class horses by daylight in the faster division of the Risen Star Stakes Presented by Lamarque Ford (G2), he needs to show he can win from off the pace.

KNOCKING ON THE DOOR

So, this was an uneventful week with not much going on. Not so fast. Could it be that we actually saw a major Derby threat in Japan? As much as I question the thought process of leaving potential Derby horses out of the field to make way for horses from Japan and Great Britain, when you have a son of American Pharoah, who reminds one of his sire and has put together two extraordinary performances, it does add some excitement and intrigue to the Derby picture.

We’re, of course, talking about CAFÉ PHAROAH, a 10-length maiden winner who put on a dazzling display of closing power to win the Hyacinth Stakes after a poor start, which put him well back in the pack. Looking hopelessly out of it, he kept improving his position while circling the field and just kept building momentum in the stretch to win 1 1/2 lengths without feeling the whip. What was most eye-catching was his resemblance to American Pharoah, especially with those smooth, fluid strides and professional manner about him.

Eddie Woods, who trained him for the OBS 2-year-old sale and acted as agent, said Café Pharoah was a very quiet, laid back colt, much like his sire, but a touch better looking. “The whole family was like that,” Woods said. “That was a very dusty track and the way he closed after getting left so far behind was very impressive. His maiden victory was incredible. He’s only had two starts, but looks like he is well advanced.”

Now let’s see how he handles the other Japanese horse eligible for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1), DIEU DU VIN, who is also undefeated in two starts, but skipped the Hyacinth Stakes and has never run on a fast track. He is by Declaration of War, out of a Tapit mare.

SIR RICK no doubt will face much tougher competition in the Sunland Derby (G3), but after his impressive victory in the Mine That Bird Derby he is not one to be taken lightly. A winner of four of his last five starts at four different racetracks, the son of Paynter went right to the lead, gave it up on the backstretch, then, after battling head and head, drew off to score by four lengths. Visually, he looks like the real deal, but now he just has to show his class.

To demonstrate how we tend to get caught up in hype on the Derby trail, EXAULTED was put in the 23 betting interests for the Derby Future Wager despite having only a second-place finish to highly publicized Nadal in a maiden sprint. Off that one race in his career, he made the list over proven stakes horses, such as Ete Indien and Royal Act. He came back in a one-mile maiden race this past weekend and finished third, beaten five lengths at 4-5. I was particularly impressed by the winner KISS TODAY GOODBYE, a son of Cairo Prince, who showed dogged determination running down second choice DIVINE ARMOR, who was 4 3/4 lengths ahead of Exaulted, the mile run in 1:37.25.

Speaking of NADAL, he turned in an exceptional work, going six furlongs in a sprightly 1:11 4/5. Sitting one length off his workmate, he just cruised to the lead with no urging at all and quickly drew off before galloping out some 10 lengths ahead of his workmate. His strides were smooth and powerful, and his presence in the March 14 Rebel Stakes (G2) will no doubt create a great deal of interest. If he can beat some talented Oaklawn-based horses going two turns for the first time then he becomes a major Derby contender.

Baffert also worked Thousand Words seven furlongs in 1:26 4/5, in which he worked in company, and although he couldn’t catch his workmate, he was going much easier of the two, as the workmate was being pushed pretty vigorously. EIGHT RINGS is progressing nicely for Baffert, working five furlongs in 1:00 1/5, and couldn’t have done it any better. But he is up against the gun. HIGH VELOCITY remains sharp, working six furlongs in 1:12 2/5.

CHANCE IT continued his string of strong works, blowing out three furlongs in :34.68 for the Fountain of Youth, where he should give Dennis’ Moment quite a battle. This horse loves Gulfstream Park and has compiled a powerful record there, sprinting and around two turns.

Withers Stakes (G3) winner MAX PLAYER finally returned to the work tab, breezing a half in :50.24. Trainer Linda Rice said she will space out his works and then work him every seven days as he gets closer to the Wood Memorial (G2). Rice also has Jimmy Winkfield winner MONTAUK TRAFFIC on target for the Gotham Stakes (G3).

John Shirreffs continues to put a lot of bottom in HONOR A.P., working him seven furlongs in 1:28 1/5 for the San Felipe. He sat a half-length off his workmate, fanned very wide turning for home, opened three lengths, and galloped out well ahead of his workmate. This colt has such a long stride, he appears to be going slower than he really is. He doesn’t have your typical stride, running low to the ground, so it’s something you have to get used to.

Remember GREEN LIGHT GO, one of my early Derby contenders? It looks like Jimmy Jerkens has him primed for a big effort in the Fountain of Youth, breezing him six furlongs in 1:13. I still feel circumstances have gotten him beat recently and he is a much better horse than he has shown on paper. We’ll see how he handles this tough test and if he can get back on the Top 12.

In other works of note, Robert B. Lewis (G2) runner-up ROYAL ACT turned in a strong work, going six furlongs in 1:12 4/5. MAXFIELD, who could turn out to be the best of the bunch, continued on the road back, breezing a half in :51 1/5. But it looks like he just has too much catching to do and they are not going to push him to try to make the Derby.

Horses who are under the radar or are way behind but have shown enough to keep an eye on are ATTACHMENT RATE (who could be any kind), SPA CITY, UNRIGHTEOUS, FARMINGTON ROAD, MARKET ANALYSIS, MISTER CANDY RIDE, GREAT POWER, PORTOS, and BACKGROUND, who likely will run in an allowance race next, but trainer Michael Puhich has not ruled out the Rebel. Also COUNTRY GRAMMER, who looks intriguing for the Fountain of Youth. I absolutely love his 3x4 inbreeding to Pleasant Colony through two of his daughters and his tail-female family tracing to Filly Triple Crown winner Chris Evert.

If there are going to be changes on the Derby Dozen, it should start this week, as we start the final push and the races get much tougher.

Derby Dozen - February 18, 2020 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Michelle Benson — Tue, 18 Feb 2020 17:24:00 GMT

Tiz the Law Barclay Tagg

Constitution—Tizfiz, by Tiznow

His 108 Brisnet speed figure is by far the fastest number by a 3-year-old this year. What is even more impressive is that he was able to run a 105 late pace figure after running a 106 middle pace figure and a 98 early pace figure. That is a horse who has a high cruising speed and can maintain it a long way, which basically means he can run fast throughout the race and doesn't get tired. All you have to do is watch the Champagne Stakes (G1) and see how strong he is when he blows by a very good horse in Green Light Go, coming home his last quarter in a powerful :24.33.

Sole Volante Patrick Biancone

Karakontie—Light Blow, by Kingmambo

The only question mark people can have with him is that his jockey, Luca Panici, is a relatively unknown, but Biancone has always had a history of using new riders, and so far you can't knock the way he has ridden him. Will Biancone stick with him now that he has a leading Derby contender who should and will have big-name jockeys pounding on Biancone's door to land the mount or follow in the footsteps of Doug O'Neill and Paul Reddam, who continued to use the unknown Mario Gutierrez on I'll Have Another, on whom he rode a perfect race to win the Kentucky Derby (G1)? Look for him to head to the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby (G2) for the longer distance and stretch. There is so much about this horse I like. He just does everything the right way.

Dennis' Moment Dale Romans

Tiznow—Transplendid, by Elusive Quality

He worked five furlongs in a sharp :58.78 for his long-awaited debut in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2), the second-fastest work at the distance. But the fastest work was turned in by his workmate Admire, who he couldn't catch in the stretch, falling two lengths short, despite Admire going the easier of the two. Then he shied a bit to the outside on the gallop-out and never really did get in front of him until they were pulling up. I'm not going to get too concerned about that because I just don't know enough about this horse due to the strange career he's had so far. It's all speculation and gut feeling considering that his reputation is based on a maiden romp at Ellis Park and a victory in the Iroquois Stakes (G3) over a horse who hasn't done much since. He could be special and we'll just let the Fountain of Youth determine where he belongs on the Derby trail.

Gouverneur Morris Todd Pletcher

Constitution—Addison Run, by Unbridled's Song

Well, it wasn't the toughest spot for his 3-year-old debut, but the mile and 40-yard allowance race at Tampa definitely served its purpose. He ran into a runner in Untitled, overcame a stumble at the start, was under pressure on the far turn, and still managed to run down Untitled to win going away by 1 1/2 lengths, missing the track record by 2 one-hundredths of a second. Remember, he hadn't run in four months. Johnny Velazquez kept after him and only hit him once right-handed, then hand rode him to the wire. I would like to see him have two more races just to give him more experience and get him more battle-tested and boost his speed figs a bit, but at this point, it looks like he will only have one more race, likely the Xpressbet Florida Derby (G1). That requires a lot of faith in your horse as well as luck from a points perspective. If they stick with that plan then this was a perfect prep for him; not too easy a race and not too hard a race.

Thousand Words Bob Baffert

Pioneerof the Nile—Pomeroys Pistol, by Pomeroy

I honestly have no idea if Anneau d'Or's dismal performance in the Risen Star Stakes Presented by Lamarque Ford (G2) with blinkers added was a statement on the California form or not. These 3-year-olds as a whole seem a bit enigmatic and it's all a guess. Is this colt a winning machine who just does what he has to or is he struggling to beat mediocre horses? I'm still banking on him being a good horse who is extremely intelligent and professional and will figure out a way to beat you, but let's say my confidence in him is not overwhelming at this point.

Authentic Bob Baffert

Into Mischief—Flawless, by Mr. Greeley

He turned in a strong six-furlong work in 1:12 1/5. The question is, can an Into Mischief, out of a Mr. Greeley mare go a mile and a quarter? He also has two doses of Ruffian's dam and one dose of Ruffian's sire in his pedigree, so we're talking some heavy duty speed. But as Baffert said, he has gazelle-like strides, looks like a stayer physically, and any horse that can draw off to a 7 3/4-length win while ducking in sharply twice in the stretch, nearly hitting the rail, has to be pretty exceptional. We will learn a lot more when we see how much he has matured in the San Felipe Stakes (G2).

Independence Hall Michael Trombetta

Constitution—Kalahari Cat, by Cape Town

He actually is on a terrific Thoro-Graph pattern and looks to be two or three races away from peaking, which is exactly what you want to see. His "negative 2" in only his second career start was a monster effort and the fastest figure by any member of this crop. He understandably regressed almost six points in his next start, but it still was a solid number, and he then moved forward in the Sam F. Davis to be right there with most of the other leading contenders. With that negative-2 to fall back on, he should only keep improving, and a return to anything close to that figure should put him right there in the Derby. I also like that he was hand-ridden the final eighth in the Sam F. Davis (G3), so there is a lot more in the tank.

Storm the Court Peter Eurton

Court Vision—My Tejana Storm, by Tejano Run

He actually got a slightly faster Thoro-Graph figure in the San Vicente Stakes (G3) than the victorious Nadal. Many point out that Nadal had to run a brutal half in :44 flat (:44.09) coming back in only three weeks, but let's not for forget this colt ran his half in about :44 1/5 in his first start of the year and sprinting isn't his game. His Thoro-Graph figures show steady improvement with each race and this effort was an excellent sharpener. I would prefer his having two more starts, as there is always the question of racing fitness if you have only two pre-Derby starts and only one of them is around two turns. Nyquist was able to pull off the seven- and nine-furlong double in the Derby but was never the same horse after that.

Silver Prospector Steve Asmussen

Declaration of War—Tap Softly, by Tapit

You couldn't ask for a better bounce back race in the Southwest Stakes (G3), as he laid closer to the pace stalking solid fractions, moved out at the top of the stretch and wore down a very stubborn front runner in Wells Bayou, coming home his final sixteenth in an excellent :06.38. He is now three-for-five on dirt and has two big efforts at Churchill Downs on fast and sloppy tracks. And he has a victory over Tiz the Law. There is much to like about him and I expect him to climb up a bit in the next couple of weeks.

Ete Indien Patrick Biancone

Summer Front—East India, by Mizzen Mast

He had a strong two-minute lick last week, which I love, and then came back with a huge seven-furlong work in 1:23 1/5 on the grass in company with the older Diamond Oops, who couldn't get near him in the stretch, even on the gallop-out. Biancone said he has a lot of speed and reminds him of the brilliant Lion Heart, but is easier to train and manage. Why Ete Indien wasn't on the list of 23 betting interests in the last Derby Future Wager after finishing second to Tiz the Law in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) and 11 1/2 lengths ahead of the third-place finisher is beyond me.

Mr. Monomoy Brad Cox

Palace Malice—Drumette, by Henny Hughes

He showed the most improvement in the first and faster division of the Risen Star Stakes and was never really threatened, winning on the front end and turning the tables on his LeComte Stakes (G3) conqueror Enforceable. The first indication of how highly he is thought of was when Florent Geroux elected to ride the half-brother to champion Monomoy Girl over Enforceable in the LeComte Stakes. His time for the Risen Star was 85 one-hundredths faster than the second division. Geroux did a masterful job from post 9 clearing the field and getting him to the rail and allowing him to set an easy pace on an uncontested lead over a track where you had to be on or close to the lead. When Blackberry Wine pulled on even terms on the far turn, he had plenty left and pulled away, winning by 2 1/2 lengths. Now I want to see the same kind of performance from off the pace.

Three Technique Jeremiah Englehart

Mr Speaker—Nite in Rome, by Harlan's Holiday

Just found out from Englehart that he worked a half in :49 2/5 in company Feb. 16 and galloped out very strong, and for some reason it didn't get recorded, so ignore his drop to No. 12. He is right on schedule for the Rebel. In his last race, the Smarty Jones Stakes, his Thoro-Graph figure soared over six points to put him right up there with the best of them, He has really never run a slow figure, but this last one showed how much he has improved in a short period of time.

KNOCKING ON THE DOOR

ENFORCEABLE still had the No. 12 spot until Silver Prospector knocked him out. He lost no stature in his second-place finish in the faster division of the Risen Star Stakes. Over a track on which it was difficult to close from far back, he came from 11th early behind slow fractions of :48.57 and :1:12.85 and made up ground every quarter. In his division, they came home the final three-eighths in :37.58 compared to :38.66 in the other division. He was relentless in the stretch trying to run down the consistent and hard-knocking SILVER STATE for second.

Although the second division of the Risen Star Stakes was run 85 one-hundredths slower than the first division and received a much lower Beyer speed figure, do not ignore the first two finishers, MODERNIST and especially runner-up MAJOR FED, who we discussed in the first Dozen. Both these colts have a bright future and we haven't seen anywhere near the best of them. Remember, these were lightly raced maiden winners compared to the proven stakes horses who occupied the first three spots in the first division – Mr. Monomoy, Enforceable, and Silver State – as they did in the LeComte Stakes in a different order. This turned out to be more of a nonwinners-of-two allowance race, so we will forgive the slower time and look farther ahead. We'll get more into Modernist and Major Fed next week, as well as the fast-closing fourth-place finisher FARMINGTON ROAD, another recent maiden winner you will hear from soon enough. And you can't ignore the third-place finisher of the second division, NY TRAFFIC, who showed he can be dangerous when he gets the lead. As for even-money favorite ANNEAU D'OR who finished ninth at even-money, that was simply a disaster.

Remember Bob Baffert's forgotten Derby hopeful EIGHT RINGS? Well, he returned to the work tab, breezing a half in a sharp :47 1/5. Time for Baffert to start separating him, Thousand Words, Authentic, Nadal, and High Velocity.

Oh, yes. Baffert also has AZUL COAST, workmanlike winner of the El Camino Real Derby, and a new Justify-like star in spectacular maiden winner CHARLATAN, who put on quite a show over the weekend, winning his debut by 5 3/4 lengths in a snappy 1:08.85, earning a lofty 105 Beyer, and galloping out a mile ahead of his three overmatched rivals. He most likely is too far behind, even a bit more so than Justify and his miracle run. His sire Speightstown is pure speed, but his dam, Authenticity, was a grade 1 winner at 1 1/8 miles and placed in four grade 1 stakes, including the Breeders' Cup Distaff and Personal Ensign. And if you're looking for distance speed, his sire is inbred to Secretariat and his dam is inbred to Dr. Fager. He also traces to Quack, who won the Hollywood Gold Cup in 1:58 1/5, breaking the track record and equaling the world record. Is there another miracle run on the horizon?

We actually had coast-to-coast monster maiden wins this weekend, as Dale Romans sent out ATTACHMENT RATE to blow his field away at Gulfstream, winning by six lengths in a sharp 1:35.03 for the mile in the slop after making a huge middle move through insane early fractions. And he never changed leads in the stretch. By Hard Spun, out of an Afleet Alex mare, this promising colt was coming off a second, in which he turned in one of the most explosive late moves you'll see all year. His victory was overshadowed by Charlatan, but it was awfully impressive, and he is much further advanced. Romans said he is a "very good horse" and he will look for a prep for him. He just hasn't decided which one. For all you Alydar fans, he is inbred to the great Calumet star.

And you can add the performance of BACKGROUND in a maiden race at Oaklawn based on his powerful turn of foot and the way he burst clear of the field in a flash, winning by 4 3/4 lengths. He needs to get faster, but this was only his second start, so he's worth following. His breeding isn't fashionable, but he is inbred 3x4 to A.P. Indy.

It was great to see MAXFIELD finally back on the work tab, breezing an easy three furlongs in :38 1/5 at Palm Meadows. It's still a very long way to go, but at least it was a first step.

One horse who looks ready to explode on the scene is HONOR A.P. who turned in a strong seven-furlong work in 1:27. He looks a lot like his sire Honor Code, and he has that long sweeping stride that covers a lot of ground. I'm not sure how shifty he is, so you probably don't want to get him stopped, but he sure makes quite an appearance out there.

Keep remembering the name SPA CITY, who looked like the consummate pro winning a mile and an eighth allowance race at Gulfstream Feb. 8 over a very talented up-and-comer in UNRIGHTEOUS, who finished 14 3/4 lengths ahead of the third horse. To show the dramatic improvement Spa City has made, his Thoro-Graph number leaped from an "8 1/2" to a "1," which makes him one of the fastest 3-year-olds in the country. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin said he could run next in the Fountain of Youth, but the Tampa Bay Derby is more likely. As for Unrighteous, as I mentioned last week, this colt looked so good and has so much potential, I would say enough of maiden races, let's just go right into a stakes and take a shot if we want to try to make the Derby. Speaking of Thoro-Graph leaps, he went from "14 1/4" to a "2," so that allowance race could prove to be an important one in the long run.

McLaughlin said AJAAWEED, third in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, will run in either the Louisiana Derby or the UAE Derby (G2), both at the 1 3/16 miles he would prefer more than the shorter distances. SHOTSKI, who defeated Ajaaweed in the Remsen Stakes (G2) before finishing second in the Withers Stakes (G3), likely will head south for the Fountain of Youth Stakes, as trainer Jerry O'Dwyer felt the Aqueduct surface might have been too testing and tiring for him, considering he never got a breather.

If you go by workouts, then CHANCE IT is going to take a lot of beating in the Fountain of Youth after coming off back-to-back works in :59 3/5 and :58 1/5 at Gulfstream Park. This is a fast, game, and classy colt who is always going to give you a run for your money. Don't hold it against Dennis' Moment if he's not quite ready to handle this guy. If he does then you know Dennis' Moment is the real deal.

One horse who has sort of gotten lost is the third-place finisher of the San Vicente Stakes (G2) FAST ENOUGH, the Cal-bred who was coming off a neck victory in the 1 1/16-mile Cal Cup Derby and dropping back into an open company sprint stakes. The son of Eddington ran hard the whole way, coming from sixth and outfinishing Storm the Court for third. Winner of two of his three starts and having a pedigree, while not fashionable, should get him a distance of ground, Fast Enough is a sneaky horse to keep in the back of your mind in upcoming stakes.

A quick recap of interesting workers, undefeated grass star STRUCTOR breezed a half in :48 1/5, former highly ranked Derby Dozen horse GREEN LIGHT GO breezed a half in :48 4/5, Robert B. Lewis (G2) runner-up ROYAL ACT breezed five furlongs in 1:01 1/5, undefeated Louisiana-bred NO PAROLE breezed a half in :49 4/5, Mucho Macho Man runner-up AS SEEN ON TV breezed five furlongs in 1:03 4/5.

Derby Dozen - February 11, 2020 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Blood-Horse Staff — Tue, 11 Feb 2020 15:48:00 GMT

Tiz the Law Barclay Tagg

Constitution—Tizfiz, by Tiznow

Cicadas are those loud insects that come out every 17 years. You can say the same thing about Barclay Tagg and Sackatoga Stables, which come out every 17 years and make loud noise on the Derby trail with a New York-bred. Unlike the often fiery Funny Cide, Tiz the Law is the ultimate professional. To show the improvement he has made from 2 to 3, he began his career strongly pairing up a “3 1/4” Thoro-Graph figure before regressing noticeably in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) in the slop and with a terrible bottled up trip. But in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) he leaped from that “8 3/4” aberration to a brilliant “negative-3/4.” Although Tagg told jockey Manny Franco to keep off the inside in the Holy Bull, I still would like to see how he handles traffic down there in order to feel more confident in a 20-horse field. I don’t believe the race at Churchill proved he needs to be outside horses.

Sole Volante Patrick Biancone

Karakontie—Light Blow, by Kingmambo

The reason he debuts so high on the rankings is because this is what a Derby horse is supposed to look like. He has a devastating closing kick on dirt and grass, in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) he blew right on by an undefeated dual stakes winner and one of the leading Derby contenders and won going away with his ears pricked, with a gap of 11 1/4 lengths to Remsen runner-up Ajaaweed in third. To show what a spectacular move he made, he ran his third quarter in an eye-catching :23.26, according to Trakus, making up 13 lengths, then just kept going, coming home the final sixteenth in :06.11. What makes his story so great is that you had to go through 3,493 yearlings at the Keeneland September sale to get him for a paltry $6,000. He was pinhooked at the OBS April 2-year-old sale and went for only $20,000 to Biancone.

Dennis' Moment Dale Romans

Tiznow—Transplendid, by Elusive Quality

Big jockey change, as he gets Flavien Prat for the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) Feb. 29, according to agent Derek Lawson. He had his fifth work of the year, breezing five furlongs in 1:00.22 at Gulfstream. His works point to him returning sharp, fit and ready for a huge effort. Romans said he hasn’t lost a beat and this last work was exactly what they were looking for. Romans also is convinced he is only going to improve from last year. He just needs to put together a pair of strong efforts and avoid any misfortunes that would derail his attempt to make the Derby off two starts.

Anneau d'Or Blaine Wright

Medaglia d’Oro—Walk Close, by Tapit

It’s blinkers or bust, as he hits the road. With the Risen Star Stakes Presented by Lamarque Ford-Lincoln (G2) split, the first three finishers of the LeComte (G3) all drew in the other division, leaving him as a standout on form. If he can finally learn to pass horses with the addition of blinkers, which I believe he will, he would have to be considered a serious Derby contender with no problem getting classic distances. He will have more time to get by horses with the longer stretch and the longer distance of 1 1/8 miles. It’s just a question of whether the blinkers will help him do that. He had his last two races all but won, but let them both get away. He’s been working great, his last move six furlongs in 1:12 4/5, and I see a different outcome this time.

Gouverneur Morris Todd Pletcher

Constitution—Addison Run, by Unbridled's Song

He passed the Sam F. Davis to wait for a mile and 40-yard allowance race at Tampa on Feb. 14. Pletcher often likes to start them off easy, especially at Tampa, but he could have his hands full with spectacular maiden winner Untitled, coming off a very troubled fourth in the Swale Stakes (G3), and the stakes-placed Letmeno, who was fourth to Dennis’ Moment in the Iroquois Stakes (G3). Pletcher also runs Dudley Square, who won smartly first time out at Tampa going six furlongs. It’s much better to be tested than to have a horse of this caliber just waltz around there and prove little, especially if he’s only going to have two starts and only one race to get points…He does have to improve a bit on his Thoro-Graph figures, but I still believe he has star potential.

Thousand Words Bob Baffert

Pioneerof the Nile—Pomeroys Pistol, by Pomeroy

If Anneau d’Or and Gouverneur Morris don’t blow us away this weekend, he will move back up. Looking at Thoro-Graph this week, it revealed something very interesting that you can either take heed to or simply ignore if you are a big fan of the horse. After running two solid Thoro-Graph figures last year, he surprisingly regressed several points in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3). It must be noted that he beat his stablemate High Velocity by one length after beating him by 5 1/4 lengths in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2). It is my impression that you can throw out all conventional handicapping with him. He just seems like an extremely intelligent and competitive horse that will run just as fast and beat you just as far as he has to. We’ll have to see if he can continue cutting it this close.

Authentic Bob Baffert

Into Mischief—Flawless, by Mr. Greeley

Baffert loves this colt and feels he is extremely gifted, as he showed by demolishing his field in the Sham Stakes (G3) despite racing very greenly in the stretch. We just need to see a race that’s more professional and help convince us he can outrun his speed-oriented pedigree. He is inbred to the brilliant Icecapade, a half brother to Ruffian, the hard-knocking Buckfinder, and Laughter, the dam of $1.2 million earner Private Terms. One thing about Icecapade’s dam Shenanigans, she did produce fast horses that could carry their speed. Baffert still believes, with his gazelle-like strides, he will run all day. He breezed five furlongs in 1:01 1/5, and Baffert said he will remain in California.

Storm the Court Peter Eurton

Court Vision—My Tejana Storm, by Tejano Run

Yes, he could have run better in the San Vicente Stakes (G3) and unless he’s on the lead he has a tendency to run unevenly at times, but he was right up there early chasing a brutal half in :44.09, showed a brief spurt, but it quickly became obvious he didn’t have the speed to outrun these horses, yet still was beaten only 2 1/4 lengths, while giving four pounds to the top two finishers. I still believe this sharpener should help him when he returns to two-turn races. I just don’t know what his best running style is.

Independence Hall Michael Trombetta

Constitution—Kalahari Cat, by Cape Town

You never want to see a 3-5 favorite, and an undefeated one, get beat in his second start of the year, but I am not going to get down on him too much. I feel he may have hit the front too soon and simply got outrun by a very good horse, to whom he was giving four pounds. Take Sole Volante out of the race and he beats the Remsen Stakes (G2) runner-up by 11 1/4 lengths and continues his dominating run of victories. When you have a horse that has crushed his opposition every race, you never know what is going to happen when he finally faces better quality horses. And he ran into a tiger in the Sam F. Davis. This was just the first step, and they could use this as a learning experience and not get too overconfident in the future. Remember, his “negative-2” in the Nashua Stakes was by far the fastest time run by a member of this crop. Was it too fast too soon?

Three Technique Jeremiah Englehart

Mr Speaker—Nite in Rome, by Harlan's Holiday

He turned in a five-furlong breeze in a sharp :48 at Oaklawn, as he waits for the Rebel Stakes. I don’t believe we’ll start seeing the best of him until they stretch out to 1 1/8 miles. Let’s remember that despite getting beat 2 3/4 lengths in the Smarty Jones by a tough foe in Gold Street, Three Technique had a faster Thoro-Graph figure – a “2 1/2” compared to Gold Street’s “3 1/4.” And that 2 1/2 was a six-point jump from his previous start. This is a colt who is improving with every start, and we will see just how good he is when he gets a contentious pace to run at.

Ete Indien Patrick Biancone

Summer Front—East India, by Mizzen Mast

All of a sudden Patrick Biancone has himself quite a lethal one-two punch with this rapidly improving colt and Sole Volante, both of whom look to be loaded with stamina, but have far from fashionable pedigrees. Biancone picked both out at the sales, getting this colt as a 2-year-old for $269,640 after he had RNA’d for $85,000 as a weanling and then selling for $80,000 as a yearling at Keeneland. Ironically, in both his colts’ last races, there was a gap of 11 1/4 and 11 1/2 lengths between the second- and third-place finisher, suggesting these are both extremely talented horses and major Derby contenders.

Enforceable Mark Casse

Tapit—Justwhistledixie, by Dixie Union

He breezed a half in :49 3/5 in preparation for the split Risen Star Stakes Feb. 15, where he will face the runner-up and third-place finisher of the LeComte, Silver State and Mr. Monomoy. He seems tailor-made for Fair Grounds with its long stretch and his ability to circle horses and rally from well out in the middle of the track. In the LeComte, his Thoro-Graph figure jumped five points, suggesting he has made great progress from 2 to 3. Like Anneau d’Or and several others, he should appreciate the longer distance of the Risen Star this year.

KNOCKING ON THE DOOR

I know, how can I leave NADAL off the Top 12? It’s insane. Simple, he’s only had two sprints, we won’t see him action for another five weeks, and I couldn’t find a reason to take anyone off, at least not yet. The fact is, only two Derby winners in the past 53 years have gone into March without having run farther than seven furlongs and they both were trained by Bob Baffert. One of them, Justify, swept the Triple Crown and the other, Silver Charm, was a grade 1 winner at 2 and nearly swept the Triple Crown. Is Nadal in that class? Perhaps, but not yet. Yes, he ran a very good race in the San Vicente (G2) coming back in only three weeks and surviving a blistering :44.09 half, but he was tested the length of the stretch by a 12-1 shot with three fourth-place finishes in four career starts, they came home the final eighth in :13.54, and the first four finishers were separated by only 2 1/4 lengths. Even if he was in the Top 12, there are a lot of races between now and his next start in the Rebel Stakes, so chances are he wouldn’t have stayed on anyway. Therefore I decided to wait for the Rebel and see just how special this colt is. Maybe he is another Baffert freak. He should like the two turns, being by Blame, but as a historian, I am taking the wait and see attitude. If this horse wasn’t trained by Baffert I doubt he would have this kind of hype.

Let’s continue with SOLE VOLANTE’S pedigree, as it is one you don’t often see on the Derby trail. His sire, the foreign-bred grass miler Karakontie (JPN) is reminiscent of another foreign-bred grass miler, Leroidesanimaux (BRZ), who sired Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Animal Kingdom, who like Sole Volante excelled on dirt and grass and had a big closing kick...This colt has the much-coveted Rasmussen Factor, being inbred to the great mare Miesque, which means he is also inbred to Miesque's broodmare sire Prove Out, who trounced Forego, Secretariat and Riva Ridge in a two-month period. His dam is a half-sister to Light Shift, winner of the English Oaks and second in the Irish Oaks, and his third dam, Northern Trick, a half-sister to Jockey Club Gold Cup winner On the Sly, won the French Oaks and Prix Vermeille and was second in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. His dam is from the Mill Reef -- Shirley Heights (both English Derby winners) line, one of the most successful in Europe in the past 30 years. His pedigree also includes horses who won 14 of their 16 starts in the Triple Crown.

In addition to the two major stakes over the weekend, we also saw the in-name-only Louisiana-bred NO PAROLE stroll to another easy victory, winning the Louisiana Bred Premier Night Prince Stakes stretching out to a mile at Delta Downs. The son of Violence had everything his own way on the front end and just coasted to a 6 1/2-length score at odds of 1-20. He has now won all three of his starts in state-bred company by a combined 34 lengths. He is a smooth-striding colt with fluid action and good reach and just makes an excellent appearance out there. So far he has been a man among boys, and now comes the real test when he ventures into open company for the first time.

We could have something revolutionary going on this year. Doug O’Neill has brought a 12-horse string to Meydan in Dubai and was quickly rewarded when his dual stakes winner FORE LEFT, owned by Paul Reddam, captured the UAE 2,000 Guineas (G3). It’s difficult to tell how far he wants to go, but his pedigree seems to have enough stamina to at least give one hope, and he will tell us for sure when he contests the UAE Derby (G2). We have had U.S-based horses win the UAE Derby, but we have never had a U.S. horse based in Dubai win a UAE classic.

Fore Left joins Gouverneur Morris and Springboard Mile (G3) winner and Runhappy Hopeful Stakes (G1) runner-up SHOPLIFTED as part of a trio bred by Carrie and Craig Brogden’s Machmer Hall. Shoplifted, who was third in the Smarty Jones Stakes in his most recent start, is out of a dam who is a roach back (curvature of the spine), blind in one eye, and has a cataract in the other eye that limits her vision.

We saw quite an interesting field line up for a mile and an eighth allowance race at Gulfstream Feb. 8, with a number of top trainers and top owners represented. This potentially was the final launching pad to get on the Derby trail. What came out of the race were two horses who look to have great promise. The winner, Godolphin’s SPA CITY looked like the consummate pro cruising to the lead and holding off the Todd Pletcher-trained Calumet Farm colt UNRIGHTEOUS, who finished a whopping 14 3/4 lengths ahead of third-place finisher and 2-1 favorite TELEPHONE TALKER. Unrighteous is a son of Violence who physically looks like a stayer and should be a lock the next time he runs. I love the look and demeanor of this colt, but he doesn’t have the best action and was still a tad green. But all in all, I liked what I saw, which is a colt with a bright future. This was such an impressive performance I would consider forgetting about maiden races and going right into a stakes with him.

As for Spa City, the son of Street Sense did everything right, ran a solid nine furlongs in 1:49.24 and came home in :24.70 and :12.47. He was challenged by a very talented horse and showed his toughness refusing to let Unrighteous get any closer than a length. His trainer Kiaran McLaughlin has a colt with great potential and a strong pedigree. And don’t give up yet on AJAAWEED, who was way too far back in the Sam F. Davis and never really seemed to be handling the Tampa Bay surface, which is not unusual. He plugged along to at least get third and will surely improve over a different track and a longer distance. He has already shown good tactical speed breaking his maiden at a flat mile and perhaps would benefit from a good sharpener in the Gotham Stakes (G3) before stretching back out in the Wood Memorial (G2). You just don’t want races like the Remsen and Sam Davis to dull him, which seems to be the case right now. He needs to put himself in a better position and at least give himself a chance.

GOLD STREET, who heads a three-horse Steve Asmussen entry in the Feb. 15 Southwest Stakes, actually had some heavy-duty closing pace figures on Equibase in the Smarty Jones Stakes. The son of Street Boss ran a 96 middle pace figure and a 101 closing pace figure, which is pretty exceptional, especially for a horse on the lead. To run that fast in both those categories denotes a horse who can maintain a strong pace a long way, keep building on it, and show no signs of tiring. Assistant trainer Scott Blasi says the colt “kicks on pretty good.” He added that he’s not very big, but is “a very efficient mover with a big stride.”

Two horses who could hit the board at a monster price in the split Risen Star are FARMINGTON ROAD (1st div) and MAJOR FED (2nd div). Not quite ready for this, but the best is ahead of them. Watch out for FINNICK THE FIERCE with blinkers off.

Derby Dozen - February 4, 2020 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Michelle Benson — Tue, 04 Feb 2020 17:13:00 GMT

Tiz the Law Barclay Tagg

Constitution—Tizfiz, by Tiznow

We said in the first two Dozens to ignore the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2), he could be the best of the lot and a big effort in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) could land him the No. 1 spot. Well, this certainly was a big effort, as he returned to his Champagne (G1) dominance and showed all the qualities you want to see in a Derby horse. And you had to love that 11 1/2-length gap to third. In addition, he had to steady pretty sharply down the backstretch, losing his position. He was a little late changing leads and drifted toward the rail after getting clear, but asserted himself nicely, beating a very promising horse, and was throwing ears around at the finish.

Dennis' Moment Dale Romans

Tiznow—Transplendid, by Elusive Quality

At this stage, workouts normally don’t dictate where a horse is ranked, but his bullet five-furlong breeze in :58 2/5, fastest of 49 works at the distance, was brilliant enough to keep him ahead of Thousand Words for the No. 2 spot. He can still regain the No. 1 spot by running to that work. There is still room for a ‘wow’ horse to show up, and his best efforts indicate he could be that horse. He just needs to put together a string of trouble-free trips.

Thousand Words Bob Baffert

Pioneerof the Nile—Pomeroys Pistol, by Pomeroy

One thing you have to say about this horse, he is a warrior. He won’t blow you away but he will never back down from a challenge. In the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) he was taken back to fifth and settled nicely. With his typical head-down style he moved up on his own and had no problem going through a very narrow opening and bulling his way through. What I liked most was his ability to rate and bide his time and then put in a strong steady run. His running style reminds me a bit of A.P. Indy. So far, you couldn’t ask for a more professional, competitive, and gutsy horse. I’m still not 100% sure how far he wants to go, but all those attributes listed above, as well as his determination and ability to make his own holes, will surely help him get longer distances.

Storm the Court Peter Eurton

Court Vision—My Tejana Storm, by Tejano Run

You always hate to drop a horse when he did nothing wrong, but this is the time of year when racing success determines where a horse is ranked, and he will have his chance to move back up with a huge effort in the San Vicente Stakes (G2) on Feb. 9. He continues to turn in solid works, going five furlongs in 1:01 1/5. I don’t know what speedy horses he will run into in the San Vicente, but Eurton is a veteran and knows this is a prep and will serve him well in the long run. If he wins, fine, but he just needs to get in a good sharpener and be competitive before stretching back out again.

Gouverneur Morris Todd Pletcher

Constitution—Addison Run, by Unbridled's Song

He is getting sharper with every work, and his latest five-furlong drill in 1:00 2/5 should have him ready for a big debut. I thought it might come in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3), but Pletcher informed Tampa Bay Downs he wasn’t coming, so now an option is the $750,000 Southwest Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn Park Feb. 17. He might have gone for more as a yearling, but the colt who had a super disposition at Machmer Hall suddenly turned ornery at the sale and turned off a number of buyers, but he behaved perfectly the four times Phoenix Thoroughbreds looked at him, and they were able to get him at a bargain price, then pinhooked him for $600,000.

Independence Hall Michael Trombetta

Constitution—Kalahari Cat, by Cape Town

He should be a standout in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) as he puts his unbeaten record on the line, but could be tested by Remsen Stakes (G2) runner-up Ajaaweed, the late-running Sol Volante, and possibly the highly promising Premier Star. He has trained brilliantly over the Tampa Bay track and boasts two runaway stakes victories already. He has the pedigree, the running style, and the ability to decimate his opponents. Now we just have to see how he stands up under fire. He blew out a sharp half-mile for the race in :48 3/5.

Anneau d'Or Blaine Wright

Medaglia d’Oro—Walk Close, by Tapit

Looks like he will be getting blinkers in his next start, and the projection here is that they will move him up significantly considering how he was unable to pass the leader in his last two starts when he looked like the stronger horse. There is no guarantee they will remedy that, but it is encouraging enough to move him up, especially with Thousand Words winning again. This colt is right there and seems to have all the attributes. He just needs to learn how to finish it off. If the blinkers help, watch out. He worked seven furlongs in 1:29 4/5 at Golden Gate.

Three Technique Jeremiah Englehart

Mr Speaker—Nite in Rome, by Harlan's Holiday

As stated last week, he did everything right but win in the Smarty Jones Stakes, but was beaten by a very fast horse that was able to get loose on the lead and could be ay kind. A reminder that his Thoro-Graph number jumped from an “8 3/4” to a “2 1/2” in the Smarty Jones, which is a significant forward move and makes him a legitimate Derby contender already. This was his first big test and he passed on all counts. I love the way this colt moves, with that low action and big extension.

Ete Indien Patrick Biancone

Summer Front—East India, by Mizzen Mast

He looked like he could be any kind coming off the grass and drilling an allowance field in 1:35 flat, earning an excellent 101 Equibase speed figure. He verified that performance with a huge effort in the Holy Bull Stakes (113 Equibase speed figure), gamely staying competitive with Tiz the Law to the wire while finishing 11 1/2 lengths ahead of the third horse, Toledo, who he beat by 2 1/2 lengths in his dirt debut in December, so you can see the improvement this colt has made. His pedigree is loaded with stamina and toughness, the latter through Cozzene and Verbatim on the dam side, and there is a good blend of speed through Salt Lake.

Authentic Bob Baffert

Into Mischief—Flawless, by Mr. Greeley

The raw talent is there, and if he can get over some of that greenness that was on display in the Sham Stakes (G3) and if he can continue showing his brilliance at longer distances then the sky’s the limit. But he will have to overcome a great deal of speed in his pedigree from his sire and broodmare sire. Returned to the work tab breezing five furlongs in 1:01 2/5.

Enforceable Mark Casse

Tapit—Justwhistledixie, by Dixie Union

The feeling here is that this colt has grown up and improved in leaps and bounds from last year and I thought he looked like a Derby horse in the LeComte Stakes (G3) the way he negotiated a 13-horse field, racing far back, going between horses, then circling the field seven-wide and drawing off in the stretch. And distance will not be a problem. With his big stretch run, Fair Grounds looks it will remain his home for the remainder of the Derby trail.

Royal Act Peter Eurton

American Pharoah—True Feelings, by Latent Heat

I’m really not sure what to make of the Robert B. Lewis. He obviously made a great transition from grass to dirt and ran hard in the stretch while being vigorously ridden to get within three-quarters of a length of the winner. But he did have a perfect stalking trip, and the winner is not one to draw away. I also don’t know how far he wants to go. Eurton, who now has a potent double-barreled threat, was as happy as can be with his performance. He feels this is a grinder type who just keeps giving you more. It looks like the San Felipe (G2) will be next on the agenda and we’ll see if separates him and Storm the Court.

KNOCKING ON THE DOOR

Simply too much activity and movement to keep MAXFIELD in the top 12--so, we’ll just wait for him to start working and then get an idea if he can possibly make the Derby.

I hate dropping GREEN LIGHT GO off one seven-furlong race. He simply could not keep up with that torrid :45 flat half in the Swale Stakes (G3). He made a bit of a move along the rail, but never looked comfortable and the winner was long gone. He also was stuck on his left lead. When he did finally switch he dug in gamely and held off Untitled and nearly got up for second. The latter deserves another shot after a terrible start. But I would have liked to have seen a little better closing punch, and we’ll hold off on him for now until we see how does going two turns for the first time. Swale winner MISCHEVEOUS ALEX will remain at one turn and could point for the Gotham Stakes (G3).

In the Withers Stakes (G3), the winner, MAX PLAYER, performed well in a slowly run race, but it was only his third career start, the first two at a mile at Parx. He had a clean trip the whole way, circled the field five-wide and mowed everyone down in the final furlong, including runner-up SHOTSKI, winner of the Remsen Stakes (G2). But they did come home in a pedestrian :26 1/5 and :13 3/5, with the winner earning only an 86 Beyer speed figure. He has a nice long, fluid stride and there is no doubt he has ability, and also gets toughness through French Deputy, Verbatim, and Halo. It looks like the plan is to wait for the Wood Memorial (G2), which is two months away, and you have to wonder if he will have enough bottom and experience with only four career starts and only one start in 12 weeks going into the Derby.

As I mentioned last week, my big concern with PORTOS is him getting dulled by so many 1 1/8-mile races, and he sure was dull in the Withers, dropping some 10 lengths back and taking too long to find his best stride while under an early whip. To his credit, once he did he closed well enough to get third, beaten 3 3/4 lengths. That was his fourth 1 1/8-mile race already and he has yet to break 1:50, with three of those races being slower than 1:53. Perhaps he is more of a Belmont Stakes (G1) horse, but even so, he needs to get sharper. He no doubt has the ability and certainly the pedigree.

Fourth-place finisher MONDAY MORNING QB deserves another chance after getting slammed into at the break by the rail horse and dropping much farther back than he’s used to. He did make a good steady move to get into second at the eighth pole but didn’t change leads and tired a bit late. He’s much better than that. Two horses that were eased, MR. SHORTANDSIMPLE and VANZZY, were both doing well on Sunday.

In the Robert B. Lewis, HIGH VELOCITY had his own way on the lead, but once again could not hold off Thousand Words, and doesn’t look like Derby material running this way, although he will win his share of races. TIZAMAGICIAN did all the dirty work chasing High Velocity and didn’t have enough of a punch late, but still was beaten only 1 3/4 lengths and should improve off this effort.

The undefeated Amazon TARAZ continued her winning ways, toying with a small field in the Martha Washington Stakes at Oaklawn. The imposing daughter of Into Mischief, who dwarfed her three opponents, won as she pleased by 3 3/4 lengths. She has now won her three starts by a combined 22 1/2 lengths. She has a strong female family with plenty of stamina to go with her speedy sire, and now trainer Brad Cox will have to decide whether to stick with fillies or head to the Derby trail. The suspicion is we will see her next in the Honeybee Stakes (G3) Mar. 7 at Oaklawn vs. her own sex. Then we’ll see.

At Gulfstream Park, PALM SPRINGS, the 1-2 favorite in a one-mile maiden special weight race, just held on to win by a diminishing nose, but the horse to watch was the runner-up first-timer MISTER CANDY RIDE, who showed an explosive turn of foot to burst into contention on the turn and probably would have won had he changed leads. At Santa Anita, the Liam’s Map colt RUSHIE rebounded off a poor effort in his debut to wire his field going a mile, winning under a hand ride by a length in a slow 1:38 over 4-5 favorite DIVINE ARMOR.

One horse I am anxious to see in the Sam F. Davis Stakes is the aforementioned AJAAWEED, who could be on the verge of breaking into the big time. The son of Curlin has the pedigree and the closing kick and has already run at a mile, 1 1/16 miles and 1 1/8 miles. I loved the way he was able to close strongly off crawling fractions in the Remsen Stakes. His 4 3/4-length score in a one-mile maiden race in 1:36 2/5 was impressive. I can’t wait to see how he handles a horse as talented as Independence Hall. Another intriguing horse in the Davis is SOLE VOLANTE, third in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes in his dirt debut after winning the Pulpit Stakes on grass. The son of Karakontie has a monster closing kick and is another exciting horse trained by Patrick Biancone. PREMIER STAR, who is possible for the Davis, was discussed in length in the opening Dozen.

Other horses I have a close eye on and are one good effort away from cracking the Dozen are Springboard Mile runner-up ANSWER IN, who turned in a sharp five-furlong work in :59 2/5 at Oaklawn Park; the highly touted HONOR A.P., who breezed five furlongs in 1:02 2/5 at Santa Anita; and impressive maiden winner MAJOR FED, who worked five furlongs in 1:00 4/5 at Fair Grounds for the Risen Star Stakes Presented by Lamarque Ford-Lincoln (G2) on Feb. 15. More on him next week. Also working in 1:00 4/5 at Fair Grounds was the exciting Louisiana-bred NO PAROLE (entered in the Premier Night Prince Stakes Feb. 8 at Delta Downs), whose pedigree is all Kentucky, and at Gulfstream, three-time stakes winner CHANCE IT, breezed a half in :48 2/5.

If you like Chance It, you surely have to like AS SEEN ON TV, who was beaten a head by Chance It in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes. The son of Lookin At Lucky showed his sharpness breezing five furlongs in 1:00 flat at Palm Meadows for Kelly Breen.

At Belmont, the recent impressive maiden winner WAR STOPPER, who is bred to run all day, turned in a bullet five-furlong breeze in 1:01. The son of Declaration of War showed tremendous improvement last out with the addition of blinkers and will now point for the Gotham Stakes (G3).

Undefeated STRUCTOR, winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Presented by Coolmore America (G1T), continued toward his highly anticipated dirt debut, breezing a half in :48 4/5 at Palm Meadows.

A horse to keep an eye on at Fair Grounds is BLACKBERRY WINE, who showed a great deal of courage battling back in the stretch to win an allowance optional claimer by a length, in which there was a 4 1/4-length gap back to the 3-2 favorite Chestertown in third, and he ran two-fifths of a second faster than the LeComte Stakes the same day. The son of Oxbow looks to be improving rapidly and turned in a bullet five-furlong work in :46 3/5, fastest of 33 works at the distance. He's a big long-striding colt and he opened up a wide margin on the gallop out as if he were just getting started. He has a great pedigree, which we'll get into in future weeks.

NADAL had his first work back following his impressive maiden victory on Jan. 19, working a half in :47 4/5, second fastest of 38 works at the distance. From a visual stadpoit, this was oe of the most impressive works I've seen this year. He has a beautiful, fluid stride with flawless action, and galloped out very strongly, The colt has a big following already but is behind the eight-ball timing-wise after getting such a late start.

Derby Dozen - January 28, 2020 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Blood-Horse Staff — Tue, 28 Jan 2020 16:16:00 GMT

Dennis' Moment Dale Romans

Tiznow—Transplendid, by Elusive Quality

His works keep improving, the latest being a half-mile breeze in :48. For a No. 1-ranked horse, it is still difficult to get a good gauge on him because of his two misfortunes, so you’re basically relying on an Ellis Park maiden romp and his stakes-record Iroquois Stakes (G3) victory at Churchill Downs. What it all means is that you are taking a chance that those two races define him. Pedigree-wise, his female family hasn’t produced much, but his third dam is by dual classic winner Pleasant Colony, and his fourth dam is by Round Table, out of Pink Pigeon, who set a new American record of 1:45 4/5 for 1 1/8 miles on grass at Santa Anita and ran 1 1/4 miles in 1:58 1/5 on grass at Saratoga.

Storm the Court Peter Eurton

Court Vision—My Tejana Storm, by Tejano Run

With 22 Derby-qualifying points already in the bank (highest of any 3-year-old through Jan. 27), Eurton can afford to start him off in a sprint, the seven-furlong San Vincente Stakes (G2) Feb. 9 at Santa Anita, to give him a sharpener after two grade 1 races at 1 1/16 miles. As you have heard me state ad nauseam, that is what classic winners and 3-year-old champions did, and that includes Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed, Spectacular Bid, Damascus, Buckpasser, Sunday Silence, Easy Goer, Arts and Letters, Majestic Prince and just about everyone else. But the refusal of Churchill Downs to award points to sprints has deterred trainers who feel they must accumulate points even in January and February. Whether Storm the Court wins the San Vicente or not, it should give him the jumpstart he needs, and he looks ready for a big effort with three straight sharp five-furlong works in 1:00 3/5, 1:00 1/5, and 1:00 3/5. Coming off four five-furlong works, he obviously isn’t being trained to run his eyeballs out in a sprint, so he only has to run well and be competitive to set him up for the longer races. But he could still win this on class. Just don’t get down on him if he comes up a bit short. Remember, this is a prep.

Thousand Words Bob Baffert

Pioneerof the Nile—Pomeroys Pistol, by Pomeroy

He was up to five furlongs in his works before blowing out a half in: 48 1/5 as he points for a possible start in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) Feb. 1 at Santa Anita. In his Jan. 20 work, he went 1:01 2/5 in company going head and head all the way before inching clear late and then going strong past the wire while being vigorously ridden. He hasn’t dazzled anyone the way many of Baffert’s young horses do, winning both his starts by a total of three-quarters of a length, but he’s the kind of horse who will do whatever you ask him to, and he has shown he can run fast early and not get tired. So far he’s been in dogfights sprinting and at two turns and has prevailed each time. I’m still not sure what his distance limitations are, if he has any, because of the speed influences in his female family, but we won’t have any idea until he stretches out to 1 1/8 miles.

Tiz the Law Barclay Tagg

Constitution—Tizfiz, by Tiznow

He’s been working steadily for his debut in the Feb. 1 Lambholm South Holy Bull Stakes (G3) and a big effort could land him in the No. 1 spot. His opponents in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) have proven that is a tough race to figure, as the two horses that beat him both finished fourth in their 3-year-old debuts and the horse who finished behind him won the LeComte Stakes (G3) going away. One thing we do know is that he should not have problem stretching out to classic distances. His broodmare sire, Tiznow, is a two-time Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) winner, his great-grandsire, Go For Gin, won the Kentucky Derby (G1), and Go For Gin’s broodmare sire, Stage Door Johnny, won the Belmont Stakes (G1) and is a major stamina influence. Also, his third dam, Crafty and Evil, is a half-sister to Horse of the Year and 2-year-old champion Favorite Trick. His Champagne Stakes (G1) victory was one of the strongest performances of the year, as he blew the doors off Green Light Go with a final quarter in :24 1/5. He could be the best of the lot, and we’ll find out in the Holy Bull.

Gouverneur Morris Todd Pletcher

Constitution—Addison Run, by Unbridled's Song

This colt’s maiden victory stamped him as something special. It was a bit surprising seeing him debut at Saratoga at 5 1/2 furlongs, but he turned in one of the most impressive performances at the Spa meet. Not only did he easily draw off to a nine-length victory, jockey John Velazquez never once even thought about cocking his whip and just hand-rode him the entire length of the stretch. His time of 1:04 1/5 earned him a lofty 101 Equibase speed figure, nine points faster than Green Light Go in the Saratoga Special Stakes (G2) and seven points faster than Basin in the Hopeful Stakes (G1). Eddie Woods, who had him as a youngster, recalled that he was a big quality colt who was very quiet and laid back. You didn’t even know he was there. He didn’t have blazing speed, but enough to be dangerous. That is why he was surprised that he was able to win at 5 1/2 furlongs. With his temperament, that didn’t seem like an ideal distance for him. Then he comes back with that big effort in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) despite losing a lot of ground and making his big move to the lead too early. Now, the sky’s the limit. He showed his sharpness by breezing five furlongs in a strong 1:00 4/5 at Palm Beach Downs.

Independence Hall Michael Trombetta

Constitution—Kalahari Cat, by Cape Town

Well, you can’t say he doesn’t like the Tampa Bay surface. His five-furlong work in 1:00 flat was the fastest of 31 works at the distance. He definitely is ready for his 3-year-old debut, and the Feb. 9 Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) at Tampa looks like a logical starting off point. With three emphatic victories in three starts against lesser competition, we really have no idea how good this colt is. If he is as good as he’s looked then he is another capable of vaulting into the top spot, especially with his pedigree, which is strong everywhere you look. In addition to having plenty of stamina, there is also classy speed, with his second dam being a full-sister to Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) winner Desert Stormer. One thing you have to say about him, he does make a striking appearance, and is all racehorse.

Maxfield Brendan Walsh

Street Sense—Velvety, by Bernardini

There is still hope, so we’ll keep him on, at least for the time being. He arrived at Palm Meadows on Jan. 23 and has been given the green light for full training. The reports are that he looks great physically and he will dictate where they go from here. There is no set date yet when he will have his first breeze. He still has more than a month and a half to be ready for the Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park if that’s the route they want to take. There aren’t many other options. He can’t return in the Louisiana Derby or Florida Derby (G1), so the Rebel is the only prep available other than the Gotham the week before to get two starts in and try to earn enough points. The only other race would be the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) on Turfway’s Polytrack and that wouldn’t seem likely. So let’s give him a couple more weeks to show up on the work tab. He’s just too good a horse to keep off this early in the game. But as others come along and run big races, they will leapfrog him until he eventually falls off the Top 12.

Green Light Go Jimmy Jerkens

Hard Spun—Light Green, by Pleasantly Perfect

Like Peter Eurton with Storm the Court, Jerkens is doing what he feels is best for his colt in regard to starting him off in the best spot, which is the seven-furlong Swale Stakes. He will have plenty of opportunities to earn points, and if he’s as good as Jerkens believes that shouldn’t be a problem. Jerkens has him ready for a big effort, putting in a five-furlong work in 1:00 1/5. Unlike the Champagne (G1) when he was sent to the lead for some reason, expect him to sit just off the pace, as he did in the Saratoga Special. He does have sprinter’s speed through his great-grandsire Sheikh Albadou, and he gets distance speed from his sire Hard Spun. The stamina comes mostly from broodmare sire Pleasantly Perfect. I still believe the Champagne could turn out to be the key race.

Three Technique Jeremiah Englehart

Mr Speaker—Nite in Rome, by Harlan's Holiday

Other than winning, you couldn’t have asked for a better early Derby prep than his second in the Smarty Jones Stakes. Consider that it was his first time in a stakes, first time around two turns and against talented stakes winners, he had the outside post, it was in the mud on a shortened stretch and speed-favoring track with a stakes-winning speedball loose on the lead, and he was drawing away from the rest of the field. He was striding out beautifully in the stretch, opening 2 1/4 lengths in the final eighth on Springboard Mile winner and Hopeful runner-up Shoplifted, who was two lengths in front of Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) winner Silver Prospector. And I liked the way he galloped out past the winner with his ears pricked. His Thoro-Graph number jumped from an “8 3/4” to a “2 1/2,” making him a legitimate Derby contender already. This was his first big test and he passed on all counts. Now it’s on to bigger and better things. I almost moved him up a spot off this race, but let’s see how Green Light Go runs this weekend. I love the way this colt moves, with that low action and big extension. I still remember Englehart saying on At the Races with Steve Byk last year, “He’s one of those horses that gives you goose bumps when you watch him run.” Nothing has changed, even in defeat. He is still worth playing in the future book and could very well move up a spot or two next week.

Anneau d'Or Blaine Wright

Medaglia d’Oro—Walk Close, by Tapit

Talent-wise, he is right up there with the best of them, and with only three career starts, we obviously have not seen the best of him. As mentioned last week, he just has to learn how to pass horses. His latest six-furlong work in 1:13 2/5 over the Tapeta surface at Golden Gate Fields should have him dead-fit for his 3-year-old debut. You can’t find fault with his pedigree, as there is an abundance of class and stamina, with enough helping of speed. His granddam Spring Awakening was very fast, setting a track record for 5 1/2 furlongs at Del Mar, but to show how his family can carry its speed a distance, Spring Awakening is by In Excess, who won the 1 1/4-mile Suburban Handicap (G1) in a track-record 1:58 1/5, and his third dam is by Carson City, who was a pure sprinter, but the broodmare sire of Barbaro. We’ll see if Wright ventures back to Santa Anita or keeps him home for the Feb. 16 El Camino Real Derby.

Authentic Bob Baffert

Into Mischief—Flawless, by Mr. Greeley

He bounced out of his runaway victory in the Sham Stakes (G3) in great shape, as indicated by his pair of half-mile works in :49 3/5, then a sharp :47 4/5. He no doubt has a world of talent, but still has three questions to answer – can he go a classic distance with his pedigree, can he rate off the pace, and can he get rid of his greenness that was on display in the Sham? What is most fascinating about his pedigree is that he is inbred to Ruffian’s brother Icecapade, and the broodmare sire of his broodmare sire Mr. Greeley is Reviewer, who is the sire of Ruffian. So you have Ruffian’s sire and dam (twice) in his pedigree. What is also interesting is that he has Icecapade on top through the pure sprinter Clever Trick and on bottom through distance horse and BC Classic winner Wild Again.

Enforceable Mark Casse

Tapit—Justwhistledixie, by Dixie Union

His success in the LeComte Stakes is another reason to keep Maxfield in the top 12, as Maxfield beat him by six lengths in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1). But it appears that this colt had has made great strides since then, and he sure looked like a Derby horse winning the way he did at Fair Grounds. Although he came from far back, he is far from a plodder, having finished second going five furlongs in his career debut, and then was third going 5 1/2 furlongs in his second start. He then broke his maiden going 1 1/8 miles at Saratoga on Aug. 22, which is extremely early for a 2-year-old to go that far, and he did it in the solid time of 1:50 3/5. As for his pedigree, he has the much sought after Rasmussen Factor, being inbred to the top broodmare Foggy Note through full brother and sister Relaunch and Moon Glitter, the third dam of Tapit. Enforceable is a full brother to early Kentucky Derby favorite Mohaymen, winner of the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2), Lambholm South Holy Bull Stakes(G2), and Remsen Stakes (G2); a half-brother to New Year's Day, winner of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) and sire of 3-year-old champion Maximum Security; and a full-brother to Kingly, winner of the La Jolla Handicap (G3T) and California Derby and second in the El Camino Ready Derby. And Justwhistledixie herself was a dual grade 2 winner and grade 1 placed.

KNOCKING ON THE DOOR

Timing is everything. You don’t often see the name of Fusaichi Pegasus in a top horse’s pedigree, but lo and behold, on the 20th anniversary of his dominating victory in the Kentucky Derby, there he is as broodmare sire of Smarty Jones Stakes winner GOLD STREET. Fusaichi Pegasus is one of the most underrated Derby winners ever, and most people really cannot appreciate just how special he was. He was the only horse ever to be ranked No. 1 on Derby Dozen coming off an allowance win and never having run in a stakes. That is how spectacular he looked – a regal and powerful athlete with one of the biggest, most effortless strides I have ever seen. His dominating victories in the Wood Memorial and Kentucky Derby stamped him as a future superstar, and he would have been had it not been for sore feet that plagued him.

To show how brilliant he was, especially for such a big, imposing horse, when he returned in the one-mile Jerome Stakes (G2) following an injury that forced him to miss the Belmont Stakes, he literally cruised to the front nearing the quarter pole with his ears pricked and under wraps, and it was a shock to see the three-quarters run in 1:08 1/5 (three-fifths off the track record). He had run his third quarter around that big turn in :23 flat as if loping along. Even jockey Kent Desormeaux thought he was going in 1:12 and change, his stride was so deceptive. He drew away from Albert the Great and held off the challenge of El Corredor, arguably the best miler in the country. He certainly had a mind of his own and there are numerous tales to tell about his antics. It is too bad that his name has faded over the years.

Perhaps Gold Street can do something about that, at least bringing his name back to prominence. But the son of Street Boss, despite running a powerful race, still has to show he doesn’t need the lead and doesn’t need a sloppy track. He is 0-for-3 on a fast track and 3-for-3 on a sloppy track. So the jury is still out on him. His sire was a sprinter (even though he was by Street Cry), but has sired horses who could stretch out to two turns. His first two dams were sprinters and his tail-female family traces to the stakes-winning sprinter Hagley. He has a beautiful head and an efficient stride, which should enable him to be effective going farther. He is going to be dangerous wherever he runs, but still has to prove he is a Derby horse.

Third-place finisher in the Smarty Jones, SHOPLIFTED, winner of the Springboard Mile and second in the Hopeful Stakes, tracked the pace inside Three Technique, but was no match for the runner-up in the final furlong. He is another who has distance question marks. The big disappointment was Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes winner SILVER PROSPECTOR, who never seemed to get hold of the deep muddy track, finishing fourth, beaten 7 1/2 lengths. He was never in the race and definitely deserves another shot over a more suitable surface. The winner, Shoplifted, and Silver Prospector are all trained by Steve Asmussen, who sent out seven 3-year-olds in the stakes and two maiden races on the opening day card. Asmussen also sent out ROWDY YATES to win the Riley Allison Futurity at Sunland Park in his eighth career start. This was a big comeback race following a poor showing in the Springboard Mile.

Earlier on the Oaklawn card, the Bret Calhoun-trained READY TO ROLL was indeed ready to roll, as he rolled to 7 1/2-length wire-to-wire victory in a 1 1/16-mile maiden race. After turning back one challenge nearing the top of the stretch, he drew away with every stride and was really running through the wire. He is by sprinter City Zip, but has a ton of stamina in his female family. The other maiden division was won in workmanlike fashion by the Wicked Strong colt VILLAINOUS, trained by Three Technique’s trainer Jeremiah Englehart. This was a big comeback race after finishing far back in his career debut following an awkward start going six furlongs. He still has a lot to prove.

The Todd Squad is beginning its annual assault on the Derby trail, with MARKET ANALYSIS and CANDY TYCOON both breaking their maidens at Gulfstream on Jan. 25. Neither looked extraordinary, but they looked good enough to be ready to take another step forward. Market Analysis, a son of Honor Code who was the 6-5 favorite in the seven-furlong race, looked as if he was going to win convincingly at the top of the stretch, but the 50-1 ATTACHMENT RATE came out of the clouds with a huge late run to fall three-quarters of a length short. It was a big effort considering the son of Hard Spun never changed leads. Candy Tycoon, with a second, two thirds, and a close fourth in four career starts, battled for the lead early, then finally began easing clear of his stubborn stablemate GIMME SOME MO and continued to draw away to a four-length victory, going 1 1/16 miles. The runner-up was nearly five lengths clear of the third-place finisher, so this was a very solid effort. You can add all three horses to the Pletcher arsenal, headed by Gouverneur Morris. The sleeper in the stable could very well be PORTOS, who has been working steady half-miles at Belmont Park for the Feb. 1 1 1/8-mile Withers Stakes (G3). The beautifully bred son of Tapit, out of a Tiznow mare, has a ton of bottom, having already run three times at 1 1/8 miles and once at 1 1/16 miles. In his last start on Dec. 31, he broke his maiden in the slop by nearly 11 lengths, while eased up the final sixteenth. All these slow distance races may have dulled him, so it would have been nice to see him shorten up a bit back to one turn just to sharpen him a little, but he will be making his fourth start at nine furlongs. He has a long efficient stride with great extension, which has enabled him to run so well going long.

At Aqueduct, Bill Mott may have hit the Derby trail with his Uncle Mo colt MODERNIST, who broke his maiden wiring his field by four lengths going 1 1/8 miles. Coming off a good third-place finish in early December going a mile, he was sent off as the overwhelming 1-5 favorite. It’s difficult telling how fast he is, running slow times over the deep Aqueduct surface, but, like Portos, a drop back to a mile could get him sharp if Mott feels he is Derby material. In this race they crawled early, which accounted for his final eighth in a respectable :12 4/5.

Saturday’s Holy Bull Stakes could be a stiff test for Tiz the Law. One of the more intriguing horses he could face there is ETE INDIEN, who scored a smashing allowance victory going a mile in his dirt debut for Patrick Biancone, in which he rattled off fractions of :45 2/5 and 1:09 4/5 and went on to score by 2 1/2 lengths in 1:35 flat, defeating the promising Chad Brown colt TOLEDO, coming off an impressive maiden victory. He has a good deal of stamina and we’ll find out just where he fits on the Derby trail. Another potential new face of interest is Chance It’s stablemate UNCORK THE BOTTLE, an undefeated former claimer, who is coming off a starter optional claimer on grass following two runaway victories on dirt, much like Maximum Security last year.

Finally, there is CARACARO, who was written about in great detail last week and who would be coming back in three weeks off his impressive maiden victory. The son of Uncle Mo really left an impression in that race and looked to be a live future book horse. Watch out for him.

Trainer Brad Cox has an interesting assortment of Derby hopefuls. ANSWER IN, runner-up in the Springboard Mile and a horse who appears to be improving with each race, will make his next start in the Southwest Stakes. What I like about Answer In’s pedigree is his stamina top and bottom and his tail-female line tracing to two European classic winners, Top Ville, winner of the French Derby, and Top Ville’s sire High Top, winner of the 2,000 Guineas. Also in his female family are major European stamina influences Nijinsky II and Le Fabuleux. He remains sharp, breezing a half in :48 at Oaklawn. MR. MONOMOY, the brother to Monomoy Girl who finished third in LeComte Stakes in his stakes debut, will target either the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds or the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream. Then there is the intriguing filly TARAZ, winner of her two starts by a combined 18 3/4 lengths, including an 11 1/4-romp in the slop in the Letellier Memorial at Fair Grounds. The Juddmonte Farms owned and bred filly is by Into Mischief and her two starts have been at six and 6 1/2 furlongs, so she has a number of questions to answer before being considered Derby material. She will run Feb. 8 in the one-mile Martha Washington Stakes at Oaklawn, after which Cox said, “We’ll see how it goes,” in regard to trying the boys. And this past weekend Cox sent out the Lookin At Lucky colt WELLS BAYOU to win an allowance race at Oaklawn on the front end by four lengths going a mile in the mud. All three of his starts have been on off tracks, and after stopping badly in his previous start, Cox took the blinkers off and the colt had no trouble drawing off from the field.

MONDAY MORNING QB, winner of the seven-furlong Heft Stakes at Laurel, worked a half in :50 1/5 at Parx under jockey Chris DeCarlo, who said the colt finished strong and changed leads on cue without being asked. This followed a bullet five-furlong work in :59 3/5. The son of the Giant’s Causeway stallion Imagining will run next in the Feb. 1 Withers Stakes. Owner Cash is King Stables also has the Into Mischief colt MISCHEVIOUS ALEX, a 9 3/4-length winner of the seven-furlong Parx Juvenile Stakes, heading for the Swale Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream the same day. Cash is King and partners also purchased NY TRAFFIC following a fifth in the Notebook Stakes, and the son of Cross Traffic promptly won a 1 1/16-mile allowance race at Gulfstream for new trainer Saffie Joseph, who is really starting to make a name for himself. Still another from these connections, JOHNNY RITT, who won an allowance/optional claimer at six furlongs by 3 3/4 lengths, worked a half in :48 1/5 and likely will look for races in Maryland.

John Shirreffs said he has no plans yet for impressive maiden winner HONOR A.P., who is back training after missing the Sham Stakes (G3). The son of Honor Code, who breezed a half in :51 2/5, was an $850,000 yearling purchase at Saratoga and has tons of stamina in both his sire’s and dam’s pedigree. That missed race could prove costly, as it would mean the difference between having four career starts and five career starts going into the Derby. But at least he ran as a 2-year-old and broke his maiden at a mile, and has a trainer who you know will have him fit.

WAR STOPPER, who wired his field when breaking his maiden at a mile in his second start on dirt, had his first work back, breezing a easy half in :53 at Belmont Park for Rudy Rodriguez. You have to love this colt’s pedigree, being by Declaration of War, out of a Curlin mare and inbred top and bottom to Fappiano. Purchased for only $75,000 as a yearling, he was withdrawn from two 2-year-old sales. There is a possibility he could show up in Saturday’s Withers.

Other possibilities for the Withers are Remsen Stakes (G2) winner SHOTSKI, who breezed five furlongs in 1:02; impressive Parx maiden winner MAX PLAYER from the Linda Rice stable; Display Stakes winner VANZZY; Jerome Stakes runner-up BOURBON BAY; and the Turfway Park maiden winner HAIL TO THE CHIEF, trained by Wesley Ward ad owned by Ken and Sarah Ramsey.

One horse on the improve to keep an eye on in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes is the Richard Mandella-trained TIZAMAGICIAN, who already has six career starts, the last three coming at a mile. Following a bout of seconditis, he finally put it all together, winning impressively by 2 1/2 lengths. He will run all day and showed it by opening some eight to 10 lengths on the gallop-out, with Victor Espinoza having a tough time pulling him up. He is owned by the fan-based Myracehorse.com in partnership with Spendthrift Farm. This would make a great story and an exciting one if the son of Tiznow should make it to the Derby with such a large and enthusiastic following. Mandella still isn’t sure how good he is but feels he will test them pretty good in the Robert B. Lewis. His jump from a “9” Thoro-Graph figure to a “5 3/4” suggests he is finally starting that all-important forward move.

The undefeated Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner STRUCTOR finally had his first work of the year, breezing three furlongs in :37 1/5 at Palm Meadows. Trainer Chad Brown is looking forward to trying him on dirt for the first time. He is certainly bred for it. Hopeful winner BASIN had his second work back at Fair Grounds, breezing an easy five furlongs in :51 1/5.

One horse who continues to intrigue me is Remsen Stakes runner-up AJAAWEED, who breezed a half in :48 4/5 at Palm Meadows. The son of Curlin was flying at the end of the Remsen despite the sluggish early fractions, and his 4 1/4-length maiden victory going a mile at Belmont was very impressive. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him develop into a major force on the Derby trail. This is the kind of horse who could be a bargain in the future books.

ANCIENT WARRIOR, who was so impressive winning his career debut at Del Mar in November and then banished from Santa Anita along with trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, looks to have found a home at Oaklawn Park. Yet another son of Constitution, he turned in a sharp five-furlong work in 1:00 2/5, galloping out six furlongs in 1:13. It was the second fastest of 43 works at the distance. He looks like he is getting close to his 3-year-old debut. There was a race for him this past Sunday, but he obviously wasn’t ready for that. There is another race in the book for him on Feb. 14, so he will either go in that race or have to wait for the Southwest Stakes. In his only start at six furlongs, he broke from the disadvantageous one post, took the lead early, turned back the challenge of the Bob Baffert-trained favorite Garth and drew off at will to win by 4 1/4 lengths in 1:09 3/5, with Flavien Prat giving him only one light tap inside the eighth pole and then letting him win on his own without the slightest urging. He was late changing leads and Prat had to help him switch, but other than that this was an excellent debut.

Bob Baffert, who has stakes winners Thousand Words and Authentic, the brilliant maiden winner NADAL, Sham Stakes runner-up AZUL COAST, who could be his sleeper, and the in limbo grade 1 winner EIGHT RINGS, is keeping Bob Hope Stakes (G3) winner and Los Al Futurity (G2) third-place finisher HIGH VELOCITY sharp, working him six furlongs in 1:12 4/5. The son of Quality Road just needs to harness some of his early speed if he is to be a major Derby contender.

One of the more impressive maiden victories last year was turned in by the Simon Callaghan-trained GREAT POWER, a son of Blame who has not seen action since that race. But he finally returned to the work tab after four months, breezing three furlongs in :37 2/5 at Los Alamitos. Another who missed time but is back working steadily is American Pharoah Stakes (G1) runner-up AMERICAN THEOREM. In his most recent works, he breezed a half in :49.

If you’re looking for this year’s feel-good Patch story, FINNICK THE FIERCE is missing his right eye, yet has never run a bad race, breaking his maiden at Indiana Grand in his career debut, then finishing a fast-closing fourth, beaten 1 1/2 lengths, in a Churchill Downs allowance race before finishing a close second, beaten three-quarters of a length, in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at 87-1. In last week’s LeComte Stakes, he had to overcome a bad rail draw (for a horse blind in his right eye) yet still ran on well late to finish fourth. He definitely has a pedigree geared toward stamina and should only keep improving. He has the ability to turn in a long sustained run and seems most comfortable running outside horses, but does have a tendency to lug in a bit, which is not surprising, all things considered. His name is something from a 1940’s racing movie, which should endear him to racing fans even more. All he needs is Mickey Rooney on his back.

For those wondering about the promising SOROS, winner of the Smooth Air Stakes at Gulfstream on Nov. 30, the son of Commissioner has not worked since that race. Also absent from the work tab since November is Sunny Slope and Bob Hope Stakes runner-up STRONGCONSTITUTION, trained by Doug O’Neill.

Derby Dozen - January 21, 2020 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Blood-Horse Staff — Tue, 21 Jan 2020 15:41:00 GMT

Dennis' Moment Dale Romans

Tiznow—Transplendid, by Elusive Quality

It was important to see him work in order for him to secure the wide-open No. 1 spot, and he just got it in, breezing a half in :50 3/5 Jan. 12, then putting in a more serious half in :48 1/5. What makes him so intriguing is that we have no idea how high his ceiling is because of his star-crossed 2-year-old campaign. But, boy, when he has no incidents, he can be spectacular. Pay no attention to the 1 3/4-length margin of his Iroquois Stakes victory. He put his field away with ease and was totally geared down the final furlong. We’ll never know what might have happened had he not stumbled badly coming out of the gate in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. But that is behind him and it’s time to start putting together a string of big efforts without any incidents.

Storm the Court Peter Eurton

Court Vision—My Tejana Storm, by Tejano Run

I believe he is going to be the most underrated, underappreciated 2-year-old champion we’ve seen in years. Some looked at his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile win as a farce after the travails of the three big horses, but he showed his versatility and competitiveness, and the horse he beat came back to prove he is top quality. If he debuts sprinting in the San Vicente Stakes, as Eurton said, I will like him even more. With Santa Anita favoring speed in the Breeders’ Cup, the addition of blinkers helped him get to the lead. Now with a pair of solid two-turn races under him, it would serve him well to get a sharpener in before stretching out again. That is the way it used to be done, and Eurton has been around long enough to appreciate that. You can bet he will have him peaking on Derby Day. Let’s not forget his broodmare sire finished second in the Kentucky Derby and his sire was a grade 1 winner at a mile and a mile and a quarter.

Thousand Words Bob Baffert

Pioneerof the Nile—Pomeroys Pistol, by Pomeroy

Baffert believes he could have another major star in this guy, and after what he did in the Los Alamitos Futurity he could be right. Coming off one gutsy maiden sprint victory, he had graded stakes winner High Velocity on his inside and BC Juvenile runner-up Anneau d’Or on his outside and out-gamed both of them. It was a brilliant ride by Flavien Prat, who hit him right-handed to bring him in to look High Velocity in the eye. Then when he put him away, he switched to his left hand to bring him way out to look Anneau d‘Or in the eye and Thousand Words refused to let him get by. There is a lot of speed in his female family, so we’ll see how much he continues to improve as the distances get longer. His second dam is by Point Given, so there is some stamina there. I like the fact that he has shown the ability to sit just off the pace going 6 1/2 furlongs and 1 1/16 miles.

Tiz the Law Barclay Tagg

Constitution—Tizfiz, by Tiznow

Maybe it’s the traditionalist in me, but his Champagne performance, blowing by a top-class horse in Green Light Go was extremely impressive, as he covered the flat mile in a solid 1:35 2/5. And I am still a sucker for Champagne winners, knowing how many champions and classic winners it has produced. For now, I am going to throw out the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. He was stuck down on the inside with nowhere to go on a sloppy track and then had to bull his way between horses to get through, and was beaten only three-quarters of a length, despite losing his action when jumping back to his left lead while being sandwiched between two horses. The horses who finished second and fourth, Finnick the Fierce and Enforceable, came back to run big in the Lecomte Stakes. This is the same team that brought you Funny Cide 17 years ago and they look to have another top-class horse with a top-class pedigree. He has been working steadily at Palm Meadows, including three straight solid five-furlong works, and looks sharp and fit for his 3-year-old debut in the Holy Bull Stakes.

Gouverneur Morris Todd Pletcher

Constitution—Addison Run, by Unbridled's Song

Coming off a 9 1/2-length romp in his career debut going 5 1/2 furlongs, he stretched out to 1 1/16 miles in the grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity and had to break from post 10. He got hung five-wide into the first turn, made an impressive move from sixth to first on the far turn, quickly opening a length lead, and before he had a chance to take a deep breath, Maxfield was all over him. You can certainly make a case for him hitting the front too soon. And stretching out from 5 1/2 furlongs to 1 1/16 miles is no easy task, especially losing so much ground early and racing wide the whole way. Maxfield also was coming off only one start, but that was at a mile; big difference. I liked the turn of foot he showed going for the lead and the way he hung tough for second. He’s had four good works at Palm Beach Downs and is now up to five furlongs. I’d love to see him get three starts in to avoid having only four starts going into the Derby, but many trainers now use the less-is-better philosophy. Take advantage of his last defeat and get on board now.

Independence Hall Michael Trombetta

Constitution—Kalahari Cat, by Cape Town

He could turn out to be the best of the lot, but I just want to see him step up in competition and straighten out his pre-race antics. He beat two New York-bred maiden winners in the Jerome Stakes and toyed with a Monmouth shipper, who looks to be a sprinter, in the Nashua Stakes. But the third-place finisher in the Nashua did run a good third in the Remsen Stakes. Physically, he looks to be a top-class colt who does everything right once the gates open. He moved from Fair Hill to Tampa Bay, where he had his first work, breezing a half in :49 3/5. He looks to have a strong enough pedigree to stretch out to longer distances. He was a $200,000 RNA as a 2-year-old, so it appears he has made great strides since then.

Maxfield Brendan Walsh

Street Sense—Velvety, by Bernardini

He likely would be ranked No. 1 if his immediate future wasn’t in doubt after withdrawing from the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile with an injury and coming around slowly. He is exactly what you want to see in a Derby horse, showing an explosive turn of foot to run right on by Gouverneur Morris in the Breeders’ Futurity and quickly drawing off. It is touch and go right now, as his connections will not rush him to make the Derby. He currently is at Bridlewood Farm in Ocala. He spent some time in a paddock and tack-walking and has begun jogging, according to Godolphin’s Jimmy Bell, who said they are taking a conservative approach with him. They should have a better idea where he’s at by the end of the month. This is one serious horse, and it would be a great loss to the Derby if he is unable to make it. As it is, even if he does, he likely would not have more than four career starts before the Derby. How long he is able to stay in the top 12 remains to be seen, as we have some big races coming up.

Green Light Go Jimmy Jerkens

Hard Spun—Light Green, by Pleasantly Perfect

Leave it to Jimmy Jerkens to go old school and pass on the two-turn Holy Bull Stakes in favor of the seven-furlong Swale Stakes the same day. I love that move. Jerkens is not one to be dictated by points and is doing what he feels is in his horse’s best interests. Jerkens alluded to the fact that he gets a better read on his horses sprinting at Gulfstream than in two-turn races, which he feels can be enigmatic at times. But that will come next. His Saratoga Special score was very impressive, and he should never have been on a contested lead in the Champagne. As a result, he had no answer when Tiz the Law launched his powerful challenge. After the Swale sharpening, we’ll find out just what we have when he does finally stretch out to two turns. Coming off a defeat and passing the Breeders’ Cup, this might be the time to latch onto him in the future book.

Three Technique Jeremiah Englehart

Mr Speaker—Nite in Rome, by Harlan's Holiday

This would be my future book horse right now. I love everything about this horse, especially the way he moves and his professionalism. His maiden win at Saratoga, going seven furlongs in 1:22 4/5, was one of the most impressive performances of the year. He runs low to the ground and has good extension and fluid action. He ran slow in his most recent score at Aqueduct, but this was just a workout, winning with his ears pricked and the jock looking back. You don’t see a lot of horses inbred to record-breaking Travers winner Honest Pleasure, but this colt is, as well as Damascus. He has been working steadily at Oaklawn Park and looks ready for his all-important stakes debut, which could come in the Smarty Jones Stakes. His next start will tell us a lot about him.

Anneau d'Or Blaine Wright

Medaglia d’Oro—Walk Close, by Tapit

He seems to have all the tools and was barely beaten in two grade 1 races by two highly ranked horses. The only reason he is not ranked higher is that in both defeats he was extremely hard-ridden (hit 17 times in the BC Juvenile and 20 times in the Los Al Futurity) and looked to have both races won, only to fail to get by the winner. It’s way too early to call him a hanger, but his next race will tell a lot. Blinkers might help, but that is for his trainer to decide. I believe he is the kind of horse that if he can get a lead, he’s not going to give it up. But he has to show he can get by good horses and not have to be whipped so vigorously to do so. He had his first work of the year Jan. 17, breezing five furlongs in a sharp 1:00 4/5 on the Tapeta surface at Golden Gate Fields.

Authentic Bob Baffert

Into Mischief—Flawless, by Mr. Greeley

He no doubt is immensely talented to draw off the way he did in the Sham Stakes despite racing so greenly in the stretch, switching to his wrong lead and ducking sharply to the rail twice. He is a May 5 foal, so he still has a lot to learn. He did have everything his own way on the lead and there is a question from his pedigree about how far he wants to go. Into Mischief usually needs stamina in the dam to stretch out effectively to classic distances, and he might be able to get it from the bottom of this colt’s pedigree. But first and foremost, he has to be more professional and get rid of that greenness he exhibited. You have to give him a lot of credit for stretching out from a swiftly run 5 1/2-furlong maiden race to a grade 3 stakes at a mile. He is another who would have only four starts before the Derby.

Enforceable Mark Casse

Tapit—Justwhistledixie, by Dixie Union

Just bumped his Kentucky Jockey Club conqueror Silver Prospector off the final spot at the last minute with his sweeping victory in the Lecomte Stakes. He was flying at the end of the Kentucky Jockey Club to be beaten only two lengths and showed marked improvement at Fair Grounds, circling the field with a big move and drawing off, coming home his final sixteenth in a swift :06 1/5. It has taken him a while to get his act together, but he has turned in four straight big efforts since the addition of blinkers and established himself as a dangerous closer who should have no problem stretching out to longer distances. A $775,000 buy-back as a yearling, he has become a pet project for assistant and former trainer David Carroll, who handles Casse’s string at Fair Grounds.

KNOCKING ON THE DOOR

Welcome to the 2020 Derby trail. Is this year’s winner sitting up there in the Top 12 or among the many knocking on the door, just waiting to make their presence felt? On first glance, pay close attention to those, who for one reason or another, have to wait their turn and are just a heartbeat away from ascending to the top. Let me say that in the beginning, it is impossible to list all the promising 3-year-olds, so if you don’t see your horse named this week, that doesn’t mean he won’t be mentioned next week. Right now it is mostly about catching up with the top horses from last year and the horses who have run big already this year.

As mentioned earlier, SILVER PROSPECTOR had originally been the No. 12-ranked horse, but had to be dropped at the last minute to make room for Enforceable, who ran too good in the Lecomte to leave off. Silver Prospector improved dramatically when switched from grass to dirt, showing excellent speed at 6 1/2 furlongs at Keeneland and one-mile at Churchill in the Street Sense Stakes before stretching out to two turns in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, where he came from sixth to score a game victory. He has decent stamina on top and speed on bottom, and we’ll see how far he wants to go.

Let’s begin by saying there were three races—two maidens and one allowance—in the past month-and-a-half that could have a major impact on the this year’s Derby trail. These three races were dominated by two horses, each of whom has boosted the reputation of the other.

On Dec. 8 at Gulfstream Park, first-timer PREMIER STAR, favored at 2-1, broke sharply and stalked 5-2 second choice CARACARO before putting him away in the final sixteenth to win by 1 3/4 lengths in 1:23 flat for the seven furlongs. Caracaro got bounced around coming out of the gate, was rushed to the lead, then raced greenly, lugging out coming to the top of the stretch and carried Premier Star out some five or six paths. This race was just the tip of the iceberg.

On Jan. 11, Caracaro returned stretching out to a flat mile. Sent off as the 2-1 favorite in a 10-horse field, he broke cleanly this time, sat comfortably behind a 70-1 shot, easily disposed of him on the turn, and ran professionally through the stretch to win going away by six lengths and galloping out very strongly. What was most impressive about this performance was that his time of 1:35 flat was almost two full seconds faster than the other division won by KINGMEISTER, who just held on to defeat 4-5 favorite TELEPHONE TALKER, trained by Chad Brown, in 1:36 4/5. Caracaro has a smooth easy-going stride and a great eye, and being by Uncle Mo, out of a War Front mare, whose dam, Santa Catarina, won the Hollywood Oaks and was second in the Kentucky Oaks and third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, Caracaro looks like a horse who will have no trouble stretching out in distance. All in all, this colt, trained by Gustavo Delgado, appears to have a bright future.

To continue the reputation boosting, Premier Star then came back in a seven-furlong allowance race on Jan. 15. Sent off at 1-5, he broke sharply again and quickly opened up two lengths all on his own. From there, he just kept increasing his lead, winning by 5 1/4 lengths with his ears pricked, totally wrapped up in the final furlong, with the second-place finisher and 7-2 second choice finishing six lengths ahead of the third horse. Trained by Jorge Navarro, Premier Star is a son of the Tapit stallion Tapiture, out of a mare by Hold That Tiger, a group 1 winner in France who placed in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Woodward Stakes in the U.S. for Coolmore. Premier Star’s third dam, Dowager, is out of the top-class Princessnesian, who beat the boys in the 1 1/4-mile Hollywood Gold Cup in 1:59 4/5, at the time the fastest mile and a quarter ever run by a filly. Dowager’s sire, Honest Pleasure, shattered the track record for a mile and a quarter, winning the Travers Stakes in 2:00 1/5. It is stakes time for both horses and you will want to keep a close eye on them.

Getting back to the Lecomte Stakes, we may have witnessed the emergence of another major player with the excellent performance of runner-up SILVER STATE, who put in a strong run behind Enforceable, but got bounced around after being stuck behind horses in the upper stretch, finally bulling his way through and rallying strongly to get second through a very quick final sixteenth. He was giving away a great deal of experience, having only run twice last year and making his two-turn debut. A $450,000 yearling purchase, he is yet another weapon in the arsenal of Steve Asmussen. What I love about him is that the female families of his sire and dam both trace to classic Darby Dan families. In addition to being inbred to Darby Dan’s English Derby winner Roberto, these are also the families of champions Little Current and Sunshine Forever, as well as Dynaformer and Brian’s Time and Darby Dan foundation mare Golden Trail. I’m looking for continued improvement from this colt.

Last year’s Kentucky Jockey Club runner-up FINNICK THE FIERCE ran well enough to finish fourth, swinging very wide turning for home after racing at the back of the 13-horse field early. He definitely deserves another shot and should keep improving at the longer distances. As for fifth-place finisher, SCABBARD, the 3-1 favorite, he was stuck down on the inside the whole race, looked to have a lot left turning for home, but ran into a wall of horses and had to steady and alter course. He was nosed for fourth and never threatened the top three, but was still finishing with good energy. He has shown enough in his four previous starts to still be regarded as a legitimate Derby contender if he can get the distance. A newcomer on the scene is third-place finisher, MR. MONOMOY, who was making his stakes debut. The half brother to champion filly Monomoy Girl stalked the early pace and raced evenly throughout, while squeezing through a narrow opening in the stretch and finishing up strongly, just getting nipped in the final stride for second. Watch for big improvement from the son of Palace Malice.

All in all, the Lecomte was a good race, leaving the door open for the first five finishers to continue on the Derby trail with confidence. However, it must be pointed out that a 1 1/16-mile allowance/optional claimer earlier on the card was run two-fifths faster than the Lecomte for whatever that is worth. The winner of that race, Calumet’s BLACKBERRY WINE, a son of Calumet’s Preakness winner Oxbow, showed a lot of guts, coming back after being passed by 3-2 DIGITAL to win by a full length. It was 4 1/4 lengths back to the other 3-2 shot, CHESTERTOWN. Blackberry Wine was making his sixth start for Joe Sharp, but three of those were on the grass, and his only victory came in a race taken off the grass at Churchill Downs, which he won by nearly six lengths in the slop.

I’m not sure if we saw any Derby horses come out of the California Cup Derby. but it was the least experienced horse in the field, FAST ENOUGH, with only one start, who just got up to beat the far more seasoned SACRED RIDER, with eight career starts. The top two finished five lengths clear of the third-place finisher. We’ll see how the winner, a gelding by Eddington, fares against open company next time out.

The seven-furlong Pasco Stakes was won in brilliant fashion by 7-5 favorite LIAM’S LUCKY CHARM, who had the distinction of depriving Chance It of a sweep of the Florida Stallion Series by defeating the recent Mucho Macho Man winner by a head in the Affirmed Division. The son of Khozan had no trouble wiring his field in the Pasco, drawing off to a 5 1/2-length victory following a bumping incident in the upper stretch and covering the seven panels in a sharp 1:21 3/5. He has to show a lot more stretching out than he did when he was beaten nearly 11 lengths by Chance It in the 1 1/16-mile In Reality.

OK, let’s catch up on some of the leading 2-year-olds from last year who just failed to make the top 12. Runaway Hopeful Stakes winner BASIN, who hasn’t run since then, had his first breeze back for Steve Asmussen, going as easy half in :52 2/5 at Fair Grounds followed by a half in :51. The son of Liam’s Map isn’t scheduled to make his debut until the Rebel Stakes in March, and we really don’t know yet how far he wants to go. Also back working are the one-two finishers of the Remsen Stakes—SHOTSKI and AJAAWEED. Shotski breezed five furlongs in 1:02 at Laurel and is headed to the Withers Stakes Feb. 1, while Ajaaweed, who definitely is one to watch going long for Godolphin, breezed a half in :49 2/5 at Palm Meadows. I see him improving with each race. AMERICAN THEOREM, runner-up in the American Pharoah Stakes, had his first work since that race, breezing three furlongs in :39 1/5 at Santa Anita. The American Pharoah runaway winner, EIGHT RINGS, who ran dismally in the BC Juvenile, has not returned to training yet and likely won’t be seen until March, possibly at Oaklawn. Eight Rings’ trainer, Bob Baffert, looks to have HIGH VELOCITY, third in the Los Alamitos Futurity and winner of the Bob Hope Stakes, sharp for a possible start in the Feb. 1 Robert B. Lewis Stakes, working him six furlongs in 1:12 4/5 on Jan. 14 following a pair of five-furlong works.

Baffert added another potential Derby horse when first-time starter NADAL broke his maiden impressively by 3 3/4 lengths in a sprightly 1:15 4/5 for 6 1/2 furlongs. I know Baffert pulled it off with the freakish Justify, but for him to win the Derby again with a colt with only three career starts is still a longshot. Trying to get four starts in him might be pushing it a bit, but it is doable if Baffert wants that badly to get him to the Derby. Nadal, a son of Blame, certainly is bred for stamina top and bottom, so his potential is limitless. He did not break sharply and had to be urged a bit to take the lead. He really did nothing wrong in the stretch and won under a fairly vigorous hand ride.

Two horses who earned everyone’s respect were last year’s Florida Stallion Series standout CHANCE IT and Gulfstream Park West’s Juvenile Sprint winner AS SEEN ON TV, runner-up in last year’s Smoke Glacken Stakes at Monmouth. Both colts, who were born one day apart in Florida, put on quite a show ding-donging it on the lead the length of the stretch in the one-mile Mucho Macho Man Stakes Jan.4, with Chance It, jumping back to his left lead in the shadow of the wire, just sticking his head in front to eke out a victory in 1:35 2/5. Chance It had already romped going two turns in the In Reality Division of the Florida Stallion Series, so give him credit for dropping back to one turn and running so gamely in racehorse time.

It seems like a lot of people really like impressive maiden winner HONOR A. P., who came from the clouds to finish second in his career debut at six furlongs and then stretched out to a mile and wired his field by 5 1/4 lengths, defeating TIZAMAGICIAN, who broke his maiden by 2 1/2 lengths going a mile on Jan. 1 for Dick Mandella. Honor A. P. was scheduled to run in the Sham Stakes, but was withdrawn with an injury that appears to be minor, and hopefully the John Shirreffs-trained son of Honor Code will be back in action soon. The good news is that he has returned to training, breezing an easy three-eighths in :39 1/5. A big effort next time will no doubt escalate him into the top 12.

Another horse who has made his way on some Derby lists and is a finalist for an Eclipse Award is the unbeaten STRUCTOR, winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. His trainer Chad Brown has expressed an interest in trying dirt right off the bat, as he is certainly bred for the dirt. But he hasn’t worked since the Breeders’ Cup, so until he does work and tries the dirt for the first time, we’ll just put him on hold and see what develops.

One of the more intriguing horses is the Louisiana-bred NO PAROLE, who is really a Louisiana-bred in name only, being by Violence, out of a Bluegrass Cat mare. Trained by Tom Amoss, this colt is either a freak among state-breds or a freak, period. Racing twice at six furlongs, all he’s done is win both starts by 14 1/4 lengths and 13 1/4 lengths in the identical time of 1:10 1/5 (1:10.24 to be precise), and in his previous start, was eased in the final yards. He did everything like a true professional, he has plenty of stamina top and bottom, so stretching out to two turns should not be a problem.

The Dec. 15 Springboard Mile was a close finish, but the first three could all have a say in upcoming stakes. We are all aware of the winner SHOPLIFTED, who did not run well in his two starts at Santa Anita last fall, but did run well in his two starts at Saratoga, breaking his maiden impressively going 5 1/2 furlongs and then finishing a well-beaten second in the Hopeful Stakes. At Remington Park, he rallied from sixth to just beat ANSWER IN by a head and has been turning in steady five-furlong works at Oaklawn. I’m not sure how far Shoplifted wants to go, being by Into Mischief, out of a Yes It’s True mare and inbred to sprinter Clever Trick, but I do know that Answer In, who had to alter course to the inside in deep stretch, should keep stretching out with no problem. The son of Dialed In, trained by Brad Cox, was extremely impressive breaking his maiden at Churchill Downs, rallying from off the pace to win going away by 5 1/4 lengths in a sprightly 1:22 2/5 for the seven furlongs. This is another you want to keep an eye on, and he could prove to be a bargain in the future book if you get on board now. He recently breezed a half-mile in :48 4/5 at Oaklawn Park. Third-place finisher EMBOLDEN, in the money in all six of his starts, was coming off four straight grass races. He hasn’t worked since that race.

The Bret Calhoun-trained MAILMAN MONEY may have distance limitations, but so far the son of Goldencents is a perfect two-for-two, including a 5 3/4-length score coming from just off the pace in a mile and 70-yard allowance/optional claimer at Fair Grounds Jan. 12.

UNTITLED, an 11-length first-out maiden winner going six furlongs at Gulfstream on Dec. 14, has since been sold and turned over to Mark Casse. After breezing a half in :48 at Casse’s training center, he was sent to Palm Meadows where he worked five furlongs in a sharp 1:00 4/5.

Several maiden winners to keep an eye on who have been working are ANCIENT WARRIOR, a 4 1/4-length maiden winner at Del Mar who has been working at Los Alamitos for Jerry Hollendorfer; the stamina-laden PORTOS, who broke his maiden by 10 3/4 lengths going 1 1/8 miles at Aqueduct for Todd Pletcher and has been breezing at Belmont Park; MAYBERRY DEPUTY, an impressive winner at Gulfstream Park going a mile for Kenny McPeek, who breezed an easy half in :51 3/5 at Gulfstream; and SHARECROPPER, a well-bred son of Pioneerof the Nile, out of a Curlin mare, who broke his maiden at Churchill Downs in October.

One horse who just returned to the work tab is the Greg Foley-trained MAJOR FED, who was very impressive breaking his maiden by 4 1/4 lengths going 1 1/16 miles at Fair Grounds Jan. 1. The son of Ghostzapper, who is bred to run all day, breezed a half in :48 4/5 Jan. 20. He could be one to watch.

Another maiden winner who was impressive in his career debut was the Ian Wilkes-trained VIOLENT CITY, a son of Violence who scored a four-length victory at Gulfstream Jan. 11. He covered the six furlongs in 1:10 2/5.

DEVIL MADE ME DOIT, a 9 1/2-length maiden winner at Santa Anita, has been injured and is off the Derby trail.

Derby Dozen - April 30, 2019 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Blood-Horse Staff — Tue, 30 Apr 2019 19:48:00 GMT

Omaha Beach Richard Mandella

War Front—Charming, by Seeking the Gold

Let’s keep it simple. He was heavily touted in the first Derby Dozen on Jan. 22 while still a maiden, was ranked No. 6 off a seven-furlong maiden win on Feb. 5, and has been No. 1 the past six weeks. He has defeated Bob Baffert’s two early Derby favorites Game Winner and Improbable in his last two starts, and had an eye-catching 5f work in :59 at Churchill Downs. With the pace a big question mark, he is the one horse who can adapt to any pace because he is so pushbutton and Mike Smith can move on him any time he wants, knowing he can then shut him off if he has to. He drew well in post 12, except for being the second to load, but Smith should be able to put him in a good spot. Not much more you can ask for. Perhaps it’s a good sign that he was one of the last two to draw, and it was between post 3 and 12. So he lucked out with that.

Game Winner Bob Baffert

Candy Ride (ARG)—Indyan Giving, by A.P. Indy

I feel Baffert has him just where he wants him after two sharp preps that have set him up perfectly for a peak performance. His schedule was messed up and he was forced to come back in the Santa Anita Derby in only three weeks following a gut-wrencher at Oaklawn. He did all the dirty work chasing the swift Instagrand and just got nailed late. He looks awesome physically and his Thoro-Graph, Ragozin, and Beyer numbers all show a steady progression leading up to a career-high number. The one thing he has proven throughout his career is you don’t want to leave him out of your exotics. He is always right there. I like him breaking from post 16. He should be able to outrun the three closers inside him and sit right off Omaha Beach, following him into the first turn. I don’t know how the Japanese horse Master Fencer is in the gate, but he is directly inside him.

Win Win Win Michael Trombetta

Hat Trick (JPN)—Miss Smarty Pants, by Smarty Jones

The Thoro-Graph, Ragozin, and Beyer figures all say he is too slow going two turns, but his Brisnet numbers show him heading back toward his big triple-digit number in the Pasco Stakes. Thoro-Graph and Ragozin both gave him blazing numbers in the Pasco, but have him regressing in his two-turn races since. I’ve decided to ignore those speed figures and move him back up after his scintillating work at Churchill. I am still going by the eye test, his closing fractions, and my gut instinct. I believe his slow speed figs are a result of bad trips and the fact he has not been able to run his best race. And I can’t ignore his fast closing times in the Tampa Bay Derby and Blue Grass Stakes. He also debuted on Derby Dozen at No. 6 back on Jan. 29 off his win in the seven-furlong Pasco, something I normally would never do, but I’ve been smitten with him since that race. If he can overcome his troubled starts and get into the fray earlier I believe he has the speed and class to be right there at a huge price. He drew great in post 14 and will have plenty of room to his outside as long as Master Fencer doesn’t do anything silly.

Tacitus Bill Mott

Tapit—Close Hatches, by First Defence

I loved his two works at Churchill Downs, especially how strongly he galloped out. He keeps getting more mature and professional by the day and appears to be sitting on a big race. He has accomplished a great deal in only four career starts, he is the only horse to win two graded stakes at two different tracks this year, and has shown his toughness and ability to overcome adversity. Even in his latest work he found himself engaged in battle between two Derby horses, igniting his competitive spirit even more. As I keep saying, I’m not crazy about having only four career starts going into the Derby, but his four starts have matured him into a seasoned pro and a warrior with a lot of miles under him. It helps to have a good mind and he couldn’t be coming up to the Derby any better, both mentally and physically. He drew perfectly in post 8 and should get a great run into the turn.

Roadster Bob Baffert

Quality Road—Ghost Dancing, by Silver Ghost

Like Tacitus, he has only four career starts, but doesn’t have as much mileage under him and has been running in much smaller fields. Although there is no questioning his ability, you have to wonder if he’s quite ready to go a mile and a quarter off an allowance race and the Santa Anita Derby in the past eight months. As talented as he is and as quickly as he is improving, there is a reason why Mike Smith chose Omaha Beach. Smith doesn’t seem like a jockey who makes wrong decisions, but if he did this time you can be sure there won’t be any regrets or second-guessing. The way Baffert has been working him, look for him to be closer than he was in the Santa Anita Derby. The only problem with that is he drew post 17 and will have to be ridden out of the gate or take way back. Look for Florent Geroux to just follow stablemate Game Winner.

Improbable Bob Baffert

City Zip—Rare Event, by A.P. Indy

I like what I’ve seen since he arrived at Churchill Downs. In his last work, he was headstrong early, cocking his head to the right again, but once he grabbed hold of the bit he leveled off beautifully and was strong down the stretch and especially galloping out, keeping his head straighter. The key is relaxing early, as there is still a slight question of how far he wants to go. Baffert will remove the blinkers and he’s been working him behind another horse. Good luck separating the three Baffert horses. Could he possibly follow up a Triple Crown sweep with a 1,2,3 finish in the Kentucky Derby? If anyone can it is Baffert. Breaking from post 5, he will have get away sharply and will be in the first flight going into the turn.

Tax Danny Gargan

Arch—Toll, by Giant's Causeway

He keeps moving up every week, and I love the fact that hardly anyone is mentioning him. Unfortunately he drew post 2 and, simply put, will have to get lucky. War of Will, breaking on the dreaded rail, will have to show speed, so perhaps he can wind up in the garden spot saving ground. He looked awesome galloping over the track Tuesday. That was the best gallop I’ve seen yet, the way he motored around there, striding out beautifully with his ears up, going twice around. He is a definite win bet. With all the big horses turning in very strong works, his last work, a like several other longshots, went virtually unnoticed. But it was an excellent work, and combined with his potent speed figures, especially on Thoro-Graph and Brisnet, he must be respected and has a big chance at a huge price. He also has a pedigree geared toward 1 1/4 miles. If there was ever a perfect Derby prep it was his Wood Memorial. Having already run back-to-back mile and an eighth races and earning one of the fastest Thoro-Graph numbers at 2, he was given two months off. He no doubt was not fully wound going into the Wood Memorial, but still ran a huge race to finish second to Tacitus, improving his Thoro-Graph number 3 1/2 points and his Ragozin number three points, while earning his third straight triple-digit Brisnet figure, the only horse to do so. With his stamina-laden pedigree there is no reason why he shouldn’t be ready to bust out in the Derby with a peak performance.

Maximum Security Jason Servis

New Year's Day—Lil Indy, by Anasheed

He is still the one horse who is an enigma and difficult to handicap, and has the ability to blow the whole race apart. No one has seen him at this point, as he’s been in Florida turning in a series of unconventional so-called works. We have absolutely no idea how good he is and what he is capable of. He no doubt is brilliant and can come home fast. Could he be a superstar? Who knows? The other question is will he be on the lead again? Even with the lack of a true speed horse, he likely will not get soft fractions like he did in the Florida Derby. There will be a cavalry charge of stalkers trying to get position going into the first turn and you have to step on the gas in order to secure a good spot. Once you do that, especially in a 20-horse field, it’s not easy to slow a horse down, so there should be a fairly testing pace. He actually is not a pace dependent horse, but if he can establish a lead without exerting himself, he will. The main problem for him is that many of the leading contenders will be breathing down his neck. Not quite the same as being chased by Bodeexpress. But let’s remember that his speed figures put him right there as one of the fastest horses in the race. He drew a great post in the 7-hole and will have one of his pace nemeses, Vekoma, directly inside him.

Spinoff Todd Pletcher

Hard Spun—Zaftig, by Gone West

I’m a bit torn now between him and his stablemate Cutting Humor, based on the latter’s strong, but way under the radar, works and drawing beautifully in post 10, as opposed to 19 for Spinoff, who has the worst kind of running style to be that far out, especially with Long Range Toddy, who has a similar running style, directly inside him. I have been touting Spinoff for a long time and I am sticking with him, mainly because he has so much room for improvement. I’m not crazy about his having only four career starts, but I feel he ran a much better race in the Louisiana Derby than it might appear, and the horse that beat him is rapidly becoming the buzz horse at Churchill Downs because of his excellent works. Most important, Thoro-raph, Ragozin, Brisnet, and Beyer all have him showing huge improvement between his last two starts and one more move forward can easily put him in the winner’s circle. Again, we have a horse with only four career starts, and coming off a layoff, so it all depends on whether Pletcher has done enough with him in the past six weeks. His works have been solid, he possesses a good combination of speed and stamina, and he passes all the visual tests. What he can do while throwing his ears up is kinda scary. We have no idea what his ceiling is, because he still hasn’t come close to it. Coming off the six weeks, don’t be surprised to see him on or pressing the pace. He will be a lot harder to catch than he was in the Louisiana Derby.

Vekoma George Weaver

Candy Ride (ARG)—Mona de Momma, by Speightstown

His speed ratings and his record are good, except for a surprisingly slow Blue Grass number on Ragozin, he has the right running style with his tactical speed, and he worked well enough at Churchill Downs. But there isn’t much of a buzz, I would imagine partly because of his unsightly action, which has not affected him in the slightest so far. And for some reason he just hasn’t wowed anyone, despite a visually impressive performance in the Blue Grass. He’s gotten no respect in the polls and is coming into the race under the radar for a major prep winner. Right now it looks as if he could be higher odds than he should be. There is a question whether he will be as effective going a mile and a quarter, but that didn’t look like an issue in the Blue Grass. Even in his third-place finish in the Fountain of Youth Stakes he earned faster numbers than the two horses who finished in front of him. He should have no excuses breaking from post 6, but will be inside Maximum Security, so it’ll be interesting to see who makes the first move.

By My Standards Bret Calhoun

Goldencents—A Jealous Woman, by Muqtarib

For a while no one was mentioning him much at all, but after three impressive works at Churchill Downs and making an overall terrific impression in the morning, he has now turned into the buzz horse and may take a lot of money at the windows. He definitely loves Churchill Downs and couldn’t be doing any better mentally and physically. But will the distance pose a problem? It would seem as if he would have to outrun his pedigree. Despite his huge effort in the Louisiana Derby, Spinoff still received faster numbers on Thoro-Graph and Ragozin. Country House and Sueno both came off that race to place in the Arkansas Derby ad Lexington Stakes, respectively, and there are some who feel the favorite, War of Will, is capable of a big rebound performance. All we know right now is that there are some experts who really like him. Unfortunately, with post 3 and 12 remaining, he drew the short straw and will have to work out a trip from down on the inside.

Code of Honor Shug McGaughey

Noble Mission (GB)—Reunited, by Dixie Union

I moved him up to No. 12 last week based on his works at Keeneland and he topped them at Churchill Downs with a sensational half-mile work in :46 4/5, with a final eighth in :11 3/5 and doing it in flawless fashion. He just glides over the track and couldn’t be more professional. And I love the way he handles the turns. We know he loves coming up the inside in his races, and it will be interesting to see what he does if he has to take the overland route. There is no doubt McGaughey has him primed for a career-best effort, but although he has plenty of stamina on the sire side, his female family is inundated with speed. That could work for him or against him. He also has one other big positive and this is running a huge race in a rapidly run Champagne Stakes, my favorite 2-year-old stakes by far, based on its history and being run at a flat mile, the biggest test for a 2-year-old. I loved the way he closed in that race against a fast, wire-to-wire winner in Complexity, who has proven to be distance challenged. He is coming off a good third in a paceless race and should have no excuse this time. He does, however, have to improve on his speed figures. Breaking from post 13, he should be in excellent shape, and we’ll see how he does with an outside trip.

KNOCKING ON THE DOOR

With all the excitement over the exceptional works turned in by the leading contenders, the one work that escaped everyone’s attention was CUTTING HUMOR’S latest half-mile breeze in :48 at Palm Beach Downs. It was just the ease with which he did it, working alone this time with the rider never moving a muscle. I loved the way he handled the turns and his overall physical appearance. Sometimes we tend to overlook the obvious when handicapping. And if you want the obvious in its most simplistic terms, the major mile and an eighth Derby preps this year were run in 1:48 4/5, 1:49 4/5, 1:50 4/5, 1:51 1/5, and 1:51 1/5. Yes, most of those were on deep tracks or slop, but even so, Cutting Humor’s 1:46 4/5 in the Sunland Derby is in a different stratosphere. No matter how you look at it that is 10 lengths to 22 lengths faster than any other prep. And the second and third-place finishers – Anothertwistafate and Mucho Gusto -- were both coming off impressive grade 2 victories, which they won by seven lengths and 4 3/4 lengths, respectively. This reminds me of when Spend A Buck beat nobody in the listed Garden State Stakes at new Garden State Park in a blistering 1:45 4/5 at 2-5 and then ran the Derby field off their feet, winning with sheer speed. Look, we’re talking about a horse who likely will go off somewhere between 30-1 and 50-1, and at those odds I’m willing to look at what is right in front of my nose. He should have no trouble getting a forward position from post 10.

COUNTRY HOUSE is another I latched onto early and on whom I discussed last week. I will into greater detail on the longshots and how I am going to play them in my selections column on Thursday. But he drew post 20, so he’ll have no choice but to take way back and make one run. With his style the post shouldn’t really hurt him.

WAR OF WILL worked great and is looking great, but he was still pulling early in his work. That may work for him breaking from the rail. No thought process now, He has to bust out of there, and should be right there going into the turn. At some point, however, he’ll have to relax, so it’s just a question whether he can be turned off once he is used to get his position.

LONG RANGE TODDY had a great work Tuesday and looks fantastic, but his running style is not conducive to breaking from the 19 post. He’s going to have to drop in and find a path somewhere.

As for some of the others, HAIKAL drew well in post 11, as did PLUS QUE PARFAIT in post 9. This time he will outside his UAE Derby foe GRAY MAGICIAN, who drew post 4.

With horses like Code of Honor, By My Standards, Long Range Toddy, Cutting Humor, Haikal, and War of Will all turning in impressive works, it brings price horses into play, making handicapping even more difficult than it was.

There isn’t much to report on the Derby horses that you don’t already know or haven’t already seen, so this is a good time to go over trends that some people use in their handicapping. One thing I’ve learned about trends is that if you can’t find a logical reason behind them, pay little attention to them. I have been reading about the lack of success of the Wood Memorial and Blue Grass Stakes in producing Derby winners, and some may be inclined to dismiss the results of those two races. But, again, if you ask them for a reason behind it they can’t come up with one. It is just a statistic.

Don’t let random trends that have little or no meaning affect your thinking. Racing, especially regarding the Kentucky Derby, is cyclical. What appears logical today doesn’t necessarily appear logical tomorrow, just as it didn’t appear logical yesterday.

For instance, here are two comments often heard over the years:

“Favorites don’t win the Derby” – Said many times between 1979 and 2000.

“Favorites always win the Derby” – Said many times between 2013 and 2019

Again, there is no explanation, just two different cycles.

The lack of success of the Wood Memorial and Blue Grass Stakes means nothing unless you have firm reasons to explain that trend. It is true that the last Wood winner to win the Derby was Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000, but in the last 50 years, 10 horses have come out of the Wood to win the Derby, including two Triple Crown winners. Unless you can state how and why the Wood Memorial has changed in recent years and why it can’t produce the Derby winner then you have to accept the fact that it is merely a cycle and a horse can come out of the Wood to win the Derby if it’s the right horse. Running one-two in the Wood didn’t stop Funny Cide (2nd) and Empire Maker (1st) from finishing one-two, respectively, in the Derby. They just happened to be the right horses.

The logical reason why no Derby winner has come of the Wood since 2003 or won both races since 2000 is not because of the Wood, but other major races. Horses used to run in the Florida Derby or the Louisiana Derby and then the Wood, so you had many of the leading contenders running in the race. But that’s when those two stakes were run several weeks earlier and horses needed another race and most would go to the Wood, such as Funny Cide, who had run in the Louisiana Derby, and Empire Maker, who ran in the Florida Derby, and also Monarchos, who ran in the Florida Derby and then the Wood. But when the dates of those two races were moved up to five and six weeks before the Kentucky Derby in the mid 2000s, horses running in the Florida Derby and Louisiana Derby would then go straight into the Kentucky Derby, which meant the vast majority of horses who ran in the Wood were those who had run in New York races like the Gotham and Whirlaway and Count Fleet Stakes, which were usually cheaper races run on the inner track, with the Gotham run at 1 1/16 miles. So in short, there was no legitimate steppingstone to the Wood.

But now you have horses like Tacitus and Vino Rosso who go into the Wood off the Tampa Bay Derby, which has grown in stature in recent years and attracts far better horses than it used to. And now with the inner track gone, you have races like the Withers and Gotham, the latter back at a flat mile, that are run on the main track and attract better horses. When can you remember the New York prep races producing better quality horses than Haikal and Tax? The first three actually make for an intriguing exacta and trifecta box at a monster price. And you also had a brilliant top-class California invader in Instagrand. The Wood will never have fields like it used to because of the aforementioned dates changes, but to think it can’t produce a Derby winner makes no sense. If a trainer of a talented horse maps out a schedule ahead of time that includes the Wood Memorial, you’ll see horses running in it who are much better prepared to win the Kentucky Derby. .

The slump of the Blue Grass Stakes, which hasn’t produced a Derby winner since 2007 and hasn’t had a winner go on to wear the roses since 1991, also is misleading when you consider it was run on a synthetic surface from 2007 to 2014 and didn’t attract many of the major Derby contenders. Now you also have horses coming off the Tampa Bay Derby or horses who are better suited to Keeneland than Gulfstream who run in the Blue Grass coming off the Fountain of Youth Stakes, such as Vekoma and Signalman.

With that said, I give huge upset chances to horses coming out of second-place finishes in Wood and Blue Grass, and the aforementioned winners Tacitus and Vekoma certainly have a big shot.

Derby Dozen - April 23, 2019 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Blood-Horse Staff — Tue, 23 Apr 2019 15:02:00 GMT

Omaha Beach Richard Mandella

War Front—Charming, by Seeking the Gold

The back story is there, the owner and trainer are Derby gods material, Mike Smith chose to ride him over a Bob Baffert-trained Santa Anita Derby winner, the colt is making tremendous strides with every start, he appears to have no flaws, and is pushbutton with several gears that allows you to turn him on and off at will. As for his speed, his negative 2 1/4 Thoro-Graph number in the Arkansas Derby separated him from the others. The question is, with a jump of 4 1/2 points and such a fast number, is he in danger of regressing or “bouncing” coming back in three weeks? Even if he does regress a little he still can win the Derby, and the way he’s been improving he could easily pair up that number, as he did in his maiden romp and the Rebel. The truth is, we have no idea how brilliant he really is because he’s been improving at such a rapid rate. Mike Smith chose him over Roadster for a reason. He can feel what’s under him and how tractable the colt is. As good as Roadster has been, you just don’t go off a horse like Omaha Beach who is a jockey’s dream to ride. His quarter crack popped up in the news again, but he just had a new patch put on when he was shod and it is not an issue. It is now an old quarter crack, and even when it was new he still managed to win the Rebel and Arkansas Derby with the patch on, and also worked six furlongs in 1:10 3/5. We’ll see how he trains from here on and how he handles the track. So far all is good.

Game Winner Bob Baffert

Candy Ride (ARG)—Indyan Giving, by A.P. Indy

Being winless at 3 going into the Kentucky Derby didn’t hurt Super Saver, Mine That Bird, Giacomo, Funny Cide, Real Quiet, and Sea Hero, so don’t let two gutsy close defeats deter you if the champ was once your Derby pick or you feel he’s now ready to peak after two meaningful preps. You had to love his five-furlong work in 1:00 4/5 in which he sat two lengths behind his workmate, moved up quickly on the turn and then dusted his workmate, drawing off by six lengths and galloping out strongly. Let’s not forget he’s finished first or second at four different racetracks in three states around the country and has run his best race at Churchill Downs. His two preps this year have gotten him sharp and dead-fit, but not having a distinct weapon to depend on he needs to get a good ride from Joel Rosario, who has been overconfident in two of his last three races, losing too much ground into the first turn. He is game, tough as nails, and is on a very strong Thoro-Graph pattern, improving with every start, and only Omaha Beach and Improbable in the Arkansas Derby will be coming into the Kentucky Derby off a faster number.

Tacitus Bill Mott

Tapit—Close Hatches, by First Defence

Juddmonte manager Garrett O’Rourke said from the time they started going to the track with him as an early 2-year-old he had the “most obvious long and silky smooth stride” that he attributes to Unbridled to whom he is inbred. Although the Tapits can get a bit hot he has always been “aloof and under control,” and has shown he can “take the punches better than most.” Mott has done a superb job with this colt, getting him to turn in two impressive performances off a narrow maiden victory and four-month layoff. The tremendous improvement he has shown from race to race bodes well for another major step forward at Churchill Downs. To demonstrate that improvement, his Beyer numbers have jumped from 75 to 93 to 97. His Brisnet numbers jumped from 85 to 95 to 103, and his Thoro-Graph numbers jumped from an 8 to a 3 1/2 to a 3/4. Although I am not a fan of having only four career starts, his four starts were at a mile, 1 1/16 miles twice, and 1 1/8 miles, and over deep and quirky surfaces, so he probably has as much bottom as horses with five or even six starts. In short we have no idea how high this colt’s ceiling is, considering he’s been doing all this while still being a bit green. Imagine when he fully matures and actually peaks. If Omaha Beach has any hiccups along the way and slips down, this colt could easily leap frog Game Winner right into the top spot.

Roadster Bob Baffert

Quality Road—Ghost Dancing, by Silver Ghost

Baffert obviously doesn’t want him to come from quite that far back again, so he worked him in company from the gate, and Roadster busted out of there and quickly jumped to a two-length lead, let his workmate catch up inside him and then outdistanced him in the stretch, covering the six furlongs in 1:13 3/5, and then, like Game Winner, galloped out very strongly. The workmate actually did not run on to the wire, so the distance separating them was very deceiving. But all in all, he has looked great in the morning, showing good energy and enthusiasm, especially in his gallops, where he’s been into the bit and very focused. The late Edward P. Evans bred a great number of brilliant and classy horses over the years from his farm in Casanova, Virginia and this colt is by an Evans’ owned and bred sire, and his female family goes back five generations, with Evans purchasing his fifth dam and breeding the next four dams. That is the kind of continuity we used to see and rarely do anymore. Roadster, like Tacitus, has accomplished a great deal in his two starts this year coming off a long layoff and two starts at 2, and has been improving rapidly. However, he has a total of 30 furlongs under him compared to 34 furlongs for Tacitus. And Roadster has never raced outside of California. And, of course, Mike Smith chose to ride Omaha Beach over him, so we’ll see if he made the right decision.

Improbable Bob Baffert

City Zip—Rare Event, by A.P. Indy

Normally it’s tough following three horses in a 20-horse field, but Baffert probably won’t even have to scan the field looking for his trio, as they likely will be in the same frame, somewhere in the first tier. Like with Game Winner, it matters little he didn’t win either of his preps. He ran big each time, and also like Game Winner, was caught once and chased the winner the other time. He has beaten his two stablemates to Churchill Downs and will get acclimated to the track and his surroundings sooner. I mentioned Omaha Beach’s huge Thoro-Graph number in the Arkansas Derby, well his was pretty impressive in itself, as he became the only other Derby hopeful to earn a negative number and has moved forward in every one of his career starts. Many may have relegated him to No. 3 of the Baffert trio, but he has as much right to win the Derby as Roadster or Game Winner. Earlier I the year he was the best mover I saw in the morning, doing everything professionally and gliding over the ground with those long effortless strides. Lately, however, he’s had a habit a cocking his head to the outside and possibly losing a little focus. You sure don’t want to see that with the monstrous crowd at Churchill Downs. Baffert added blinkers for the Arkansas Derby, but will remove them for the Kentucky Derby. He didn’t wear them in his first work at Churchill Downs, in which he breezed a half in :48, out in 1:01 2/5, and although he still had his head turned out a little, he did seem more focused and moved very well over the track.

Maximum Security Jason Servis

New Year's Day—Lil Indy, by Anasheed

Because there has never been anything conventional about this colt, from his background to the way he trains, and the fact he has never raced at any track other than Gulfstream, we can only go by gut instinct and the possibility that despite the freakish nature of his brief career and his humble beginnings he could be something special and can win on sheer brilliance. Gary West’s racing manager Ben Glass said he couldn’t sell him for $15,000 as a yearling. Glass thought he was a beautiful colt, but when he brought some people out to the farm to see the yearlings nobody liked him. His knees were still open, he was a May 15 foal, and his family was a disaster in that Glass pretty much gave his sire away when no one wanted to stand him or buy part interest and he pretty much gave the dam away, selling her to Korean interests for a mere $11,000. He also saw his full brother run in cheap claiming races and his sister sell twice, for $3,000 and $5,000. “So we kept him and broke him and ran him for a $16,000 claiming tag,” Glass said. “They all wish they had bought him now."

Win Win Win Michael Trombetta

Hat Trick (JPN)—Miss Smarty Pants, by Smarty Jones

I know, I pointed out last week he’s just not fast enough going two turns according to Thoro-Graph and Beyer speed figures, so what’s he doing still up there this high? That can be answered in just one word – stubbornness. It’s a battle between the numbers and the visual angle and while I respect the numbers, I just can’t seem to let go of what my eyes tell me. I just don’t believe the speed figures apply to this horse and don’t do him justice, and that is because I don’t believe he’s gotten to show his best effort due to a forced running style that is not him. Yes, he is capable of running a big race coming from far back, but this colt has exceptional speed that has been repressed because of bad starts that forced him to come from far back. A speed horse in his first two starts capable of running :22 and :45 fractions, he broke awkwardly in the Heft Stakes at Laurel and dropped way out of it. Ever since, there have been incidents at the start and he has gotten into the habit of dropping back. He has run well anyway, but I just have a feeling that if he can ever break sharply and put himself in the race early, there is no telling what he can do. So is he simply much slower going two turns, as the speed figures suggest, or is there a monster performance just waiting to burst out? At the odds he’s going to be on Derby Day, it might be the right time to take a shot that it’s the latter.

Vekoma George Weaver

Candy Ride (ARG)—Mona de Momma, by Speightstown

Take the above comment on Win Win Win and reverse it. I pointed out how this colt is being totally disrespected despite his strong speed figures, but it’s plain to see that his unsightly action still turns people off even though it has not even come close to affecting his performance. Even in his one defeat he had a better Thoro-Graph number than the two horses who beat him. For those wondering about the derivation of his name, because of the sire’s name Candy Ride and mostly Candy Ride’s sire Ride the Rails, Vekoma is named after the Dutch company that has manufactured around 350 roller coasters all over the world. The company name Vekoma comes from the first two letters of the original name Veld Koning Machinefabriek. The colt’s paddling stride has been a major topic of conversation, but as Weaver said, “He’ll paddle all the way to the winner’s circle.” How excited is co-owner Randy Hill, who also co-owns Tax? He has chartered a plane for an early morning flight to fly him down for the draw. In addition to family and friends, his whole company is coming for the race. “I never dreamed I’d be running in the Derby and here I am with not one horse but two,” Hill said. “Of course I want to win, but to me I’ve already won the Derby.” He plans on spending so much time on the backstretch in the morning “they’ll get sick of me,” he said. Hill realizes this could very well be a once-in-a-lifetime experience and he plans on enjoying every minute of it.

Tax Danny Gargan

Arch—Toll, by Giant's Causeway

His speed figures suggest a horse who is a live longshot, especially with a pedigree to die for that will carry him a mile and a quarter with no problem. Starting with Thoro-Graph, of the Derby starters, he ran the second-fastest Thoro-Graph number last year (in the Remsen) only behind Vekoma’s figure in the Nashua Stakes. This year in the Wood Memorial he ran faster in defeat than the winners of the Santa Anita Derby, Blue Grass Stakes, Louisiana Derby, Sunland Derby, UAE Derby, and Fountain of Youth Stakes. So he has proven to be one of the fastest horses in the country at 2 and 3, and those were in his losses. In his Withers victory he ran a career-high Beyer figure and a 102 on Brisnet, equaling the fastest number run this year. Also on Brisnet, he is the only 3-year-old to run three triple-digit speed figures and he did it in his last three starts, all at 1 1/8 miles, which is unheard of these days. All three of those numbers are faster than Omaha Beach’s career best number. And his 103 in the Remsen was the fastest number by a 2-year-old last year along with Game Winner’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He has also earned two triple-digit middle pace figures and a whopping 114 late pace figure in his two starts this year, In fact, he has not run slower than a 93 in his early, middle, and late pace figures, which indicates he can run fast and keep it up the entire race. That no doubt is due to the abundance of stamina in his pedigree, but he has the speed to go with it and the ability to sustain it. This may sound like a hodgepodge of numbers, but put them all together and you have a horse who just may be far better than most people think, at least from a speed and stamina standpoint. Coming of a two-month layoff following back-to-back 1 1/8-mile races, he didn’t empty the tank in the Wood and will be much harder to run down going 1 1/4 miles with that race under him.

Spinoff Todd Pletcher

Hard Spun—Zaftig, by Gone West

Like with Tax, if you use speed ratings in your handicapping and are looking for numbers to enhance the chances of a big longshot then you most certainly have to pay close attention to this guy. First off, he is one of only four horses to earn triple-digit Brisnet speed figures in the early pace, middle pace, and late pace categories, so he has excellent tactical speed and can sustain it. Two of the others, Game Winner and Improbable, earned their figures at 2 and 3, while Spinoff has earned his in his two starts at 3, so he has the advantage of recent numbers. The other horse, Code of Honor, accomplished it by running very slow in the other categories (63, 71, and 71) while Spinoff ran his closing triple-digit figure off a 99 middle pace figure. Again, good tactical speed and the ability to sustain it. Also, in finishing second in the Louisiana Derby he ran a faster Brisnet figure than Roadster winning the Santa Anita Derby, Vekoma winning the Blue Grass, and Omaha Beach winning the Arkansas Derby, and he equaled Maximum Security’s number winning the Florida Derby. As for his Thoro-Graph numbers, his Louisiana Derby performance earned basically the same number as Roadster’s Santa Anita Derby and Vekoma’s Blue Grass and he is on a forward progression with plenty of room for improvement. And remember, his dam and second dam are both grade 1 winners, his fourth dam is a half-sister to a grade 1 winner, and his fifth dam, by major stamina influence Herbager, is a half-sister to the dams of Swale and Forty Niner. It is for all these reasons that I bet him in the last two Future Wagers. If Pletcher can put enough foundation under him in six weeks and have him dead-fit there is no reason why he shouldn’t be considered a live longshot, even losing John Velazquez, which I admit was most unfortunate.

By My Standards Bret Calhoun

Goldencents—A Jealous Woman, by Muqtarib

Like others, his training was delayed because of the bad weather and track conditions, but when he did get back he certainly made his presence felt with a big six-furlong breeze in 1:12 4/5 with his ears up and then galloped out seven furlongs in a strong 1:26. That’s what we call a Derby work. He’s been at Churchill for a while and it is apparent from his last two works that the track will be no issue and in fact should work in his favor. He obviously loves it. Because he hasn’t been seen in action for a while no one is talking about him or ranking him very high, so expect big odds, especially for an improving Louisiana Derby winner. As mentioned before, the main question is whether he will be as effective going a mile and a quarter. You can say that about most of them, but his pedigree rings mile to a mile and an eighth. You wouldn’t have any doubts about him just watching his Louisiana Derby victory, as he looked as if there was a lot more in the tank and another furlong would be no problem. But with horses that have pedigree question marks that extra furlong can be a long one. Again, it’s a question; it’s not the answer. That’s up to him and he’s sure coming into the race the right way.

Code of Honor Shug McGaughey

Noble Mission (GB)—Reunited, by Dixie Union

I normally don't make major changes based on works, and I still have some questions regarding this horse, but his work at Keeneland was as good a work as I've seen this year. I love the way he had the rider's feet in the dashboard early, the way he corned on both turns (you can't hug the rail any tighter), and the flow of his stride in the stretch, and finally his powerful gallop-out. I have been reluctant to keep him in the Top 12 because I believe he is still a work in progress and needs to get rid of some of his greenness. I will forgive his Florida Derby because of the lack of pace, but I’m just not sure if he has either turn of foot or the closing punch to win the Derby. He has put in strong runs on the far turn, but he has to maintain that run, something he has yet to do, even in his Fountain of Youth victory, in which he seemed to start loafing once he took the lead. His sire could run all day and is bred to run all day, the finest product of Coolmore breeding. But his tail-female family is inundated with speed, which probably is where he gets that early move from. He did run poorly in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes earlier this year and I honestly don’t know what to expect from him. I just know I love what I’ve seen in the morning, especially this last work. The only thing that would have made it perfect is if it had been at Churchill Downs instead of Keeneland.

KNOCKING ON THE DOOR

If you’re totally confused trying to find your Derby horse, it just may be that the National Museum of Racing has come to the rescue. The year Wayne Lukas was inducted into the Hall of Fame he won the Derby with Charismatic. The year Gary Stevens was inducted he won the Derby with Silver Charm. The year Neil Drysdale was inducted he won the Derby with Fusaichi Pegasus. Well, Bill Mott is already in the Hall of Fame, but his filly Royal Delta was just elected this week. Could it be that this is Mott’s year and he will finally get to wear the roses? Just a thought out of desperation.

Speaking of Bill Mott, in the “Don’t leave out of your Exotics” category, before you get too turned off by the fact that COUNTRY HOUSE finished 5 3/4 lengths behind runner-up Improbable in the Arkansas Derby, remember two important aspects of that race. Country House had run three weeks earlier and was being wheeled back in the Arkansas Derby, not with winning as the major goal, but just picking up enough points to make the Kentucky Derby field. Mott was not going to have the colt bust a gut trying to beat Omaha Beach and Improbable at a mile and an eighth, and over a sloppy track. He just needed to get him in the Derby so he could use his main weapons – stamina, ruggedness, and a big kick on the far turn -- going a mile and a quarter, which is right in his wheelhouse. Joel Rosario kept him out of trouble on the far outside all the way down the backstretch and around the turn. He launched his bid, circling the field and picking off horses, but Omaha Beach and Improbable were already long gone. He continued wide into the stretch and outran a very strong closer in Laughing Fox, who saved all the ground, to get third and stamp his ticket to the Derby. With it all, he, like Spinoff, still ran the same Thoro-Graph number as Roadster in winning the Santa Anita Derby and Vekoma in winning the Blue Grass, and a far better number than By My Standards winning the Louisiana Derby. Now it’s on to Churchill Downs where they’ll be playing his game at his distance and he gets a smart patient rider in Flavien Prat.

Here is a brief rundown of this year’s wild and wooly jockey rodeo in the final Kentucky Derby preps. Mike Smith rode Roadster, but also rode Omaha Beach. Jose Ortiz rode Improbable and Plus Que Parfait, but also rode Tacitus. John Velazquez rode Code of Honor, but also rode Spinoff and Cutting Humor. Joel Rosario rode Country House and Gray Magician, but also rode Game Winner. Javier Castellano rode Anothertwistafate, but also rode Vekoma. Irad Ortiz Jr. rode Bourbon War but also rode Win Win Win and winds up on Improbable when his brother Jose stayed with Tacitus. Julian Pimentel winds up back on Win Win Win after losing the mount to Irad Ortiz. Florent Geroux, who won the Lexington Stakes on Owendale, gets the ride on Roadster. Manny Franco, who had been the regular rider of Vekoma, gets the ride on Spinoff. Julien Leparoux, the former rider of Plus Que Parfait, somehow winds up on the Japanese horse Master Fencer. Luis Saez, who was the former regular rider of Country House, is now the rider of Maximum Security.

If you are looking for bombs based strictly on pedigree, then PLUS QUE PARFAIT and TAX are the ones you want to play. Tax has already been discussed in the Top 12, but if Plus Que Parfait shows good energy in his works and gallops following his trip to Dubai he could be a sneaky horse, at least to pop into the exotics. As I mentioned earlier I love that Brendon Walsh kept him in Dubai for 12 days following the UAE Derby to let him unwind and rehydrate. Who knows how much he improved with blinkers? Don’t be so quick to throw him out, especially with a mile and three-sixteenths race under his belt.

I am also going to make a case for UAE Derby runnerup GRAY MAGICIAN. Here is a horse who broke his maiden going a mile by 9 1/2 lengths at Del Mar. He then ran an even race in the Sham Stakes, finishing fourth, which resulted in Peter Miller putting blinkers on him for a mile allowance race. The track came up sloppy and he was on the engine early blazing along head an head in :22 4/5, :45 flat, and 1:08 4/5 before tiring to finish fifth. Sent to Laurel of all places, he ran into a monster in Alwaysmining and chased him all the way, finishing second in the one-mile Miracle Wood Stakes. He then headed to Dubai where he ran a bang-up second, beaten three-quarters of a length, in the UAE Derby, racing very wide a good portion of the race. Remember, all I’m doing here is looking for angles in picking out potential bombs.

The serious final Derby works have begun and we had HAIKAL, who was in the Top 12 last week, work a bullet half in :47 3/5 at Belmont Park, fastest of 48 works at the distance, and LONG RANGE TODDY, who was in the Top 12 for a number of weeks, breeze five furlongs in 1:02 3/5. Also, WAR OF WILL, the forgotten horse following his ordeal in the Louisiana Derby, continued his stellar works, breezing five furlongs in 1:00 1/5 over a sloppy track at Keeneland. CUTTING HUMOR continued his string of excellent works, breezing five furlongs in :59 2/5 in company at Palm Beach Downs.

Of the horses on the outside looking in, SIGNALMAN had another excellent work, breezing five furlongs in :59 3/5 in the slop at Churchill Downs, Florida Derby runnerup BODEXPRESS breezed a half in :48 3/5 at Gulfstream West, and BOURBON WAR breezed a sharp half in :47 3/5 at Gulfstream Park.

Whoever wins the Derby is going to run into a mighty powerful opponent in the Preakness. I’m talking about the Maryland monster ALWAYSMINING, who swept Laurel’s 2-year-old and 3-year-old stakes in impressive fashion, winning the Maryland Futurity, Heft Stakes beating Win Win Win, Miracle Wood Stakes beating Gray Magician by 4 1/4 lengths, Private Terms Stakes by 6 3/4 lengths, and last weekend’s Federico Tesio Stakes by 11 1/2 lengths. What makes him even more dangerous now is that for the first time he rated off the pace in the Tesio. He likely will join those mentioned above if they fail to get in the Derby, along with ANOTHERTWISTAFATE and possibly INSTAGRAND, so there will be a number of formidable foes waiting at Pimlico.

Next week is the final Derby Dozen, where I’ll focus mostly on works and pedigree. That will be followed on the Thursday before the Derby by the selections and betting angles column.

Derby Dozen - April 16, 2019 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Blood-Horse Staff — Tue, 16 Apr 2019 15:27:00 GMT

Omaha Beach Richard Mandella

War Front—Charming, by Seeking the Gold

He continues to go from strength to strength and there is no plan of attack when it comes to trying to beat him, because he is so pushbutton. He showed again in the Arkansas Derby you can step on the gas at any point in the race and put him in neutral at any point in the race. In short you can turn him on or off whenever you like. That is a powerful weapon for any jockey. First Mike Smith took a hold of him and let four horses vie for the lead. Then he gave the colt his head and in a flash he was in front turning into the backstretch in what looked like a premature move. Then he immediately gave him a breather even as Improbable closed in on the far turn. But Jose Ortiz was already pushing hard on Improbable while Smith was sitting motionless on Omaha Beach. Like in the Rebel, here was a Baffert star being hard ridden on the turn while Smith was still sitting chilly. Once in the stretch, Omaha Beach opened up, with Smith letting him do it all on his own. Both Baffert horses ran their hearts out in stretch, but were unable to get past Omaha Beach. All he did in the Arkansas Derby was come home his final three-eighths in :37 1/5 and final eighth in :12 1/5 on the sloppy track, with Improbable finishing nearly six lengths ahead of the third horse. And his final time was two-fifths faster than older horses in the Oaklawn Handicap. To demonstrate his improvement with each race, his Beyer numbers are as follows: 62, 78, 80, 83, 90, 96, and 101. By going four-wide into the first turn and still wide down the backside, and with the big gap from second to third, I am predicting an impressive Thoro-Graph figure. If this horse has any weakness, he has yet to show it. As for pedigree, remember his dam is a half sister to Travers winner Will Take Charge, who was beaten a nose in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, and his second dam, Take Charge Lady, won or placed in 15 graded stakes, including seven grade 1s, while earning more than $2.4 million.

Game Winner Bob Baffert

Candy Ride (ARG)—Indyan Giving, by A.P. Indy

Looking at his Thoro-Graph profile, I am in a dilemma where to rank him. Many have jumped off his bandwagon following two defeats in races he had every chance to win. But his Thoro-Graph pattern probably is the strongest of any 3-year-old and his number in the Santa Anita Derby was two full points faster than Roadster. That is a huge difference between the runner-up and the winner, no doubt caused by Game Winner’s wide trip throughout in which he ran nearly 40 feet farther than the winner according to Trakus. That equates to over a 3-length difference, so with Game Winner getting beat a half-length, one would deduce he ran the more impressive race, as substantiated by Thoro-Graph. Because of that, and his experience in large fields, I decided to move him back higher to the No. 2 spot. What puzzles me most about him are his weapons. He doesn’t beat you with raw speed and he doesn’t beat you with a big closing kick, and the horses he did beat last year have not run very well this year. I just have that nagging feeling that he, like Silver Charm, to whom Baffert compares him, somehow will find a way to beat you with his heart and guts and ability to sustain his run a long way. But he needs a heads-up ride and Rosario has given him very wide trips in two of his past three starts. Remember, with the points system eliminating sprinter types, the Derby has since been won almost every year by tactical speed horses who can carry their speed. He reminds me of Nyquist, a grinder who keeps coming at you.

Tacitus Bill Mott

Tapit—Close Hatches, by First Defence

He not only has the career co-highest Brisnet speed figure in the field and the fastest Brisnet figure this year, he is the only horse to have a triple-digit middle pace figure and triple-digit late pace figure in the same race (the Wood Memorial), which indicates he is a horse who can sustain a fast pace for a long period of time. He came out of the Wood Memorial in excellent shape, according to longtime Mott assistant Leana Willaford. She said he was a little tired, but that was to be expected. What was important was the way he overcame adversity, taking punishment and dishing it out, which bodes well for his chances on the first Saturday in May. Willaford said the colt has matured a lot since last July and has really filled out. Unlike his illustrious dam, who had a tendency to get keyed up and be a bit of a handful, Tacitus is very laid back and takes everything in stride. So he is exhibiting all the traits you want to see in a Derby horse. He has the right disposition to handle the crowd and the frantic atmosphere, but is tough as nails once the gates open and can mix it up if he has to. To accomplish what he has in his past two starts with so little experience shows how much untapped talent there still is. In short, it looks as if Mott has him peaking at the right time.

Roadster Bob Baffert

Quality Road—Ghost Dancing, by Silver Ghost

Now it is waiting time as Mike Smith decides whether to ride him or Omaha Beach, and you can’t have a tougher decision than choosing between the two favorites. I’m guessing he goes with Omaha Beach. Baffert said he realizes it’s a tough choice and will honor whatever decision Smith makes. If he chooses Roadster he likely will move closer to the top. He’s been running in five- and six-horse fields and, with only four starts, one over a mile, he doesn’t have as much foundation as Omaha Beach, who has run in 10- and 11-horse fields five times. When you consider the vast talents of both colts and their prospects for the future, this will not be an easy decision. We do know he is improving at a rapid rate, showed a good turn of foot in the Santa Anita Derby, and still has a great deal of room for improvement. He showed in the Santa Anita Derby he can appear to be out of it and then turn on the afterburners and get right back into the fray in a hurry. For him to win the Santa Anita Derby the way he did, coming off only one allowance race in seven months, was extremely impressive. There is very little separating the Top 5 or 6 horses. If Smith stays with him, and he has ridden him in all his starts, that obviously will affect his standings in all the polls. If he doesn’t, he will have to settle for a new rider, which is not an ideal situation going into the Derby. He’s not a robust horse and has very quick strides, so we’ll just have to see how he handles a 20-horse field.

Improbable Bob Baffert

City Zip—Rare Event, by A.P. Indy

Baffert said after speaking with Elliott Walden of WinStar Farm it was decided that Irad Ortiz Jr. would ride Improbable. It seemed almost certain that Ortiz’ brother Jose would choose Tacitus as his Derby mount, especially being a New York rider with a closer association with Bill Mott. Improbable could have very easily been ranked No. 2, but it is very tight up at the top and although I was very impressed with his performance in the Arkansas Derby, I still have to give more thought as to how he will handle the Derby experience, considering he did act up a bit in the gate and still has a tendency to cock his head even with the blinkers, something he didn’t do in his earlier works this year. But it must be added that he did it going by the stands the first time, but not in the heated stretch run when he was more focused. The 20-horse field might actually help him stay more focused. He had a good trip in the Arkansas Derby, but started to climb a bit when he ran up behind Long Range Toddy and started getting mud kicked back in his face. Jose Ortiz wisely steered him to the outside and in the clear, and once he did, he grabbed hold of the bit and began closing in on Omaha Beach. Looking at his pedigree, he is by the sprinter City Zip, but that stallion has sired a grade 1 winner at 1 1/4 miles, and his fourth dam is a half sister to Preakness and Belmont winner Little Current, by English Derby winner Roberto.

Maximum Security Jason Servis

New Year's Day—Lil Indy, by Anasheed

He could drive clockers at Churchill Downs a bit bonkers the way Servis works him, galloping down the stretch and then breaking off into some semblance of a work on the clubhouse turn. His half-mile work in :54 4/5 at Palm Meadows may be the slowest work by a Derby contender ever. It seems Servis has been keeping him fit with open gallops. In his past two works combined, he worked the slowest of 100 workers. But all that likely means absolutely nothing, as he turned his :52 4/5 pre-Florida Derby work into a stunning victory. Let’s just say there is nothing typical about him, from his odd claiming background, to his sudden rise to prominence, to his bizarre works, to his unconventional trainer. And with it all, he could wind up being not only the best of his crop, but a budding superstar. You just have no idea. What he’s done so far in four starts at Gulfstream has been freaky. And pedigree-wise he is from an old female family with the great broodmare sire Double Jay (a foal of 1944) close up in his fourth generation and his dam being a half sister to two-time Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Flat Out, earner of over $3.5 million. He definitely is one of the most intriguing horses I have ever come across on the Derby trail.

Win Win Win Michael Trombetta

Hat Trick (JPN)—Miss Smarty Pants, by Smarty Jones

I must admit I am torn now where to rank this colt. Last week I expounded on all his virtues and what I loved about his performance in the Blue Grass Stakes, and why I have kept him high up for so long, especially the bold move of ranking him No. 2. But looking at his Thoro-Graph number for the Blue Grass I was dismayed to see that he did not improve from the Tampa Bay Derby and his pair of two-turn figures are still not competitive with the leading contenders. The fact that he ran a huge figure in the seven-furlong Pasco Stakes and his two subsequent races at two turns showed a significant regression leads one to believe that he is far better at a sprint or mile than he is routing. With that said, I am torn between his speed figures and what my eyes tell me, and to a slightly lesser degree his pedigree. My eyes see a horse who is not distance challenged and just needs to get into the fray earlier. I like the way he closed in both his two-turn starts after less than ideal trips, especially the Blue Grass when he had to steady at a crucial point while making a big move. I lowered him after the results of the Arkansas Derby and after seeing his Thoro-Graph numbers. Also he loses Irad Ortiz to Improbable. But I am still high on him and he should be a big price and an enticing overlay. And losing Ortiz no doubt will raise his odds even higher. Although I lowered him this week, I am not going to let speed figures completely get in the way of my gut instincts. Even at No. 7 he is ranked much higher than he is in other polls.

Vekoma George Weaver

Candy Ride (ARG)—Mona de Momma, by Speightstown

As mentioned last week, this colt is getting little respect for what he’s accomplished. Many are turned off by his action, but as Weaver said, “It's just the way he goes. He’s always moved like that. I guess you would think it’s less than ideal action, but he’s always been a real sound horse and he covers a lot of ground. You wouldn't know it watching him walk. Perhaps he just moves that way out of his shoulders. There has been a lot of talk about it, but I’d rather have a horse that moves like him and can run like him than a horse that moves perfectly but can’t run.” Weaver said he will train Vekoma into the Derby from his base at Palm Beach Downs. He will work twice there and then ship to Churchill Downs. He figures it worked for the Blue Grass so he might as well stick to the winning formula, especially since the colt trains well at Palm Beach and is used to the track.

Spinoff Todd Pletcher

Hard Spun—Zaftig, by Gone West

I'd love to see John Velazquez stick with him, but I don't know, as he's been close to Code of Honor. But he really fits this horse. No one even mentions him anymore, as his six-week layoff has taken him off everyone’s radar screen. But I still feel strongly about him other than the question of whether he’s seasoned enough and has enough bottom to go 1 1/4 miles. He worked five furlongs in 1:01 2/5 in company and Pletcher had him on the inside. It was another solid work with a strong gallop-out. He has been highly thought of since he was given his early lessons by Pletcher’s father J.J. I don’t believe he was anywhere near 100% in the Louisiana Derby and the two horses directly behind him, Sueno and Country House, came back to run well enough in major stakes to give the race credibility. And his Brisnet figures for that race were strong all around. And it is important to remember he was coming off only one easy runaway victory in 7 1/2 months, so that was a very strong effort considering his lack of racing. It would have been interesting to see him in the Lexington just to take the edge off and build his foundation, considering what an easy race he had at Tampa Bay, but Pletcher likes the space between races so hopefully we’ll see at least one eye opener in the morning and a huge gallop-out. I just think he's sitting on a big race.

Tax Danny Gargan

Arch—Toll, by Giant's Causeway

The closer I look at him, the more I see him lurking in the bushes planning a sneak attack at huge odds. For weapons, he is armed with a high cruising speed and a pedigree that shouts a mile and a quarter. He also is the only horse in the field who has run three triple-digit Brisnet speed figures (only two horses have run two) and did it in his past three starts, all at 1 1/8 miles. With a pedigree that is so strong on stamina top and bottom I can forgive him getting caught in the Wood coming off a two-month layoff. At 10 furlongs he should get stronger while others will be tiring. The one negative is that his dam’s three other foals to race are a combined one-for-64, including his full brother. But his third dam is the high-class Rokeby filly Wild Applause, winner of the Diana Handicap, and his fourth dam is the Graustark filly Glowing Tribute, who also won the Diana and produced, in addition to Wild Applause, Kentucky Derby and Travers winner Sea Hero and United Nations Handicap winner Hero’s Honor, who is the broodmare sire of Elusive Quality, sire of Smarty Jones and Quality Road. Coming off three straight 1 1/8-mile races, he now has plenty of foundation and should move forward off the Wood. On Thoro-Graph, he ran a huge number in the Remsen, then regressed three points winning the Withers, a tough task for a young horse running back-to-back 1 1/8-mile races that early in his career. The two months off seemed to rejuvenate him and he came back with a career-best number in the Wood that puts him right there with the leading contenders. He’ll be a monster price in the Derby and could be a live overlay, especially to put in the exotics.

By My Standards Bret Calhoun

Goldencents—A Jealous Woman, by Muqtarib

He worked a half in :48 4/5 at Churchill Downs and what was most impressive was his gallop-out, as he hugged the rail and continued to pick up speed, and was still into the bit well down the backstretch. He was quite the picture galloping to the pole with his neck arched in regal splendor. I like horses who get an early start at Churchill Downs and he definitely is a horse who is improving in leaps and bounds at the right time. His Brisnet figures in the Louisiana Derby were very strong, but he needs to improve his Thoro-Graph numbers by at least three points, having run nearly two points slower than the horse he beat. Although he looked strong going a mile and an eighth, the big question with him is how he will handle the mile and a quarter. He already seems to have outrun his pedigree, but don’t ever underestimate unproven Spendthrift Farm stallions. They have a knack of finding under the radar stallions, such as Into Mischief and Malibu Moon, and making leading sires out of them. So it is way too early to judge Goldencents and say he can’t sire a classic horse, even though he was basically a miler/sprinter. By My Standards’ broodmare sire also was a sprinter, but his female family has more than enough stamina.

Haikal Kiaran McLaughlin

Daaher—Sablah, by Distorted Humor

McLaughlin said he came out of the Wood Memorial in great shape. I like the way he ran in his two-turn debut, proving he is not just a one-turn deep closer. I just would like to have seen a bit more punch in the closing yards, as he just barely got past 64-1 shot Math Wizard for the show spot. But this could have been a two-turn awakening and he will be more effective in his next start now that he has the hang of it. It’s going to be difficult for him coming from so far back in a 20-horse field, but many late Derby closers have come up the inside, as tiring horses have a tendency to drift out, and he’s shown he loves rallying on the inside and then coming off the rail if he has to. His pedigree seems more geared toward a mile to a mile and an eighth, so he will have to time his move perfectly and hope for a clean trip. But he does have some stamina influences and is inbred to Buckpasser, so they will have to get him home. He could be an interesting exotics play.

KNOCKING ON THE DOOR

CODE OF HONOR worked a half in :49 at Keeneland, coming home his final quarter in a swift :23 1/5 and galloping out very strong. Shug McGaughey said he was excited by the work and was happy with the way he broke off and how strongly he galloped out. He most likely will have John Velazquez work him in seven or eight days and then give the colt his final work at Churchill Downs. Velazquez currently is the rider of Code of Honor, Spinoff, and Cutting Humor, the last two for Todd Pletcher, so he has a decision to make. I really don’t know what to expect from him. His races haven’t popped off the screen, and although he’s one of the best workers visually, he’s still been green in his races, whether not firing at all in the Holy Bull, loafing on the lead in the Fountain of Youth and hanging on, and failing to keep a straight course in the Florida Derby. Whether he can wake up in the Kentucky Derby I have no idea.

While several leading contenders are improving rapidly, COUNTRY HOUSE has been taking baby steps. His pedigree says he should relish the mile and a quarter, especially his female family, and with his running style and his physical prowess I have to give him a chance to make his way into the exotics. The only reason I didn’t put him at No. 12 is because he did not gain any ground in the final furlong of the Risen Star Stakes and lost ground in the final furlong of the Louisiana Derby and Arkansas Derby, and Haikal has been running far better speed figures. Because he is such a big strong horse and thrives on racing, Mott ran him back in three weeks off his fourth in the Louisiana Derby to get enough points to make the Derby field, and he accomplished that. Because he is such a hardy horse I don’t believe he will have any problem coming back in another three weeks, and in fact may benefit from it, as he is still a work in progress and can certainly handle it.

You can’t totally dismiss LONG RANGE TODDY off the one bad race in the Arkansas Derby when that race was in the slop, and in all his other races he’s been a gem of consistency and has already defeated a major contender in Improbable. But he needed to take a fairly big step forward on his Thoro-Graph numbers and although they are not out yet, he did regress 14 points on his Brisnet numbers. So there is a question of how fast he is even on a fast track and if he can rebound off the Arkansas Derby.

Todd Pletcher worked CUTTING HUMOR inside Federal Case and the pair finished on even terms in a sprightly :47 4/5 for the half-mile, with Cutting Humor going the better of the two on the gallop-out, maintaining about a length lead, even though Federal Case was being pushed harder. He has really fallen below the radar, not having run since his 1:46 4/5 corker in the Sunland Derby. He has an interesting Thoro-Graph pattern. After running a career-high figure in his second-place finish to Bourbon War in an allowance race, putting him right up there with most of the contenders, he regressed a full seven points in his disappointing effort in the Southwest Stakes. He then made up that seven points in the Sunland Derby, putting him right back where he was after the allowance race. Now it’s a question of whether he can improve on that figure. If he does, he is not without a longshot chance.

PLUS QUE PARFAIT is one of the toughest horses to figure coming out of the UAE Derby. He was able to win the 1 3/16-mile race despite coming off two poor efforts at Fair Grounds. But he did run a big race to be narrowly defeated in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last year at Churchill Downs. I normally don’t like American horses shipping to Dubai and then running back in only five weeks, but credit trainer Brendan Walsh for doing the right thing by keeping the colt in Dubai for 12 days after the race, giving him a chance to recuperate from the race, put back some weight and rehydrate, He arrived back at Churchill Downs last Thursday night and gradually got back in training, starting off with light jogs.

Walsh said the colt is going to have to really come back in good shape in order to run in the Derby, but added that nothing bothers him. He believes he has the right mentality for the Derby, as indicated by the way he handled everything in Dubai. Walsh feels that was a good experience for him to learn from. If he sees the colt is showing good energy in his gallops, he will give him an easy half-mile breeze April 19 or 20.

If I had to rank the Derby field on pedigree alone, he would be No. 1. Both his male and female families are inundated with stamina influences, with several traces to Ribot, twice through his His Majesty and once through Arts and Letters. Everywhere you look in his pedigree there are mile and quarter and mile and half horses. He is one I am going to carefully watch in the morning. If I’m convinced enough the Dubai trip didn’t take too much out of him and he does bounce back with good energy, I might be inclined to take him more seriously for the Kentucky Derby. But I still feel the UAE Derby runner-up GRAY MAGICIAN was a bit more impressive considering how wide he ran. It’s just a question whether both colts measure up with the others. Neither exactly set the world on fire before they went to Dubai. But let’s just say Plus Que Parfait for some reason disliked Fair Grounds and Gray Magician simply ran into a buzzsaw at Laurel in the brilliant Alwaysmining. His trainer, Peter Miller, has been on quite a roll the past six months.

Good news for WAR OF WILL fans who were hoping to see him bounce back from his ordeal in the Louisiana Derby. The son of War Front showed he has fully recovered by turning a bullet five-furlong work in :59 flat at Keeneland, fastest of 44 works at the distance. Following splits of :22 4/5, :34 3/5, and :46 1/5, he came home his final eighth in :12 4/5 and then galloped out six furlongs in a strong 1:11 3/5. This was as smooth and professional a work as you could have asked for, as he did it all on his own and was striding out beautifully down the stretch. It came as no surprise, as he has been on his toes and sharp for the past week. He cooled out very well after the work and is right back on schedule for the Derby. History has shown us that horses don’t win the Derby coming off such a bad effort, but this is a new era, so who knows?

As for the Japanese entrant, MASTER FENCER, we really know little about him other than he was beaten last out over a sharp-bended right-handed course. He figures to bring in a lot of betting revenue and a great following in Japan, but it does seem strange for the Kentucky Derby to have a Japanese horse possibly preventing the Florida Derby runner-up (Bodexpress) from getting into the race, and behind him are the Kentucky Jockey Club winner and Blue Grass third-place finisher (Signalman); a stakes winner (Sueno) who has placed in the Sham, Southwest, Louisiana Derby, and Lexington Stakes; and the Fountain of Youth runnerup (Bourbon War).

All the connections of these horses can do is wait to see if there are any defections, and if they don’t get in, wait for the Preakness, which could very well be a better spot for all of them. Others with insufficient points who could show up in the Preakness are the Lexington Stakes one-two finishers Owendale and Anothertwistafate, as well as the leading Maryland-based horse Alwaysmining, who has been pointing for the Preakness all along.

Based strictly on pedigree and what I look for, here are my nine favorite bred horses who I feel are ensured to get the mile and a quarter: Plus Que Parfait, Tax, Country House, Spinoff, War of Will, Omaha Beach, Maximum Security, Long Range Toddy, and Win Win Win. That’s not to say any of the others aren’t capable of winning the Derby. These are just my personal preferences.

The most unusual launching pad on this year’s Kentucky Derby trail has to be the $16,000 claiming race at Gulfstream Dec. 20, which produced the undefeated Florida Derby winner Maximum Security and Math Wizard, who was third to Maximum Security in that claiming race and went on to finish fourth in the Wood Memorial at 64-1, beaten only 4 1/2 lengths by Tacitus and a half-length for third by Haikal.

Although it had no bearing on the Kentucky Derby, keep a close eye on WARRIOR’S CHARGE in future stakes. After breaking his maiden by six lengths at a 1 1/16 miles at Oaklawn on the undercard of the Rebel Stakes, the son of Munnings, trained by Brad Cox, came back to crush arguably the best allowance field of the year, winning again on the front end by 6 1/2 lengths in a sharp 1:42 2/5 for the 1 1/16 miles. He could be a candidate for the Peter Pan. He was not nominated to the Triple Crown race. Behind him were the highly promising Soldado from the Todd Pletcher barn, who finished fourth; Comedian from the loaded Steve Asmussen barn, who finished fifth; and second-place finisher Hidden Ruler, who was coming off a second to Gray Attempt in the six-furlong Gazebo Stakes in 1:09 3/5 for Dallas Stewart. Before that, Hidden Ruler was second to the talented Captain Von Trapp in a mile allowance. Finishing third in Friday’s race was recent maiden winner Proverb, trained by Ron Moquett.

Derby Dozen - April 9, 2019 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Blood-Horse Staff — Tue, 09 Apr 2019 15:50:00 GMT

Omaha Beach Richard Mandella

War Front—Charming, by Seeking the Gold

His exceptional works continued with a bullet five furlongs in 1:00 3/5, fastest of 18 works at the distance, followed by a strong six-furlong gallop-out. Mike Smith watching the work, was so impressed he told Mandella, “That was my work of the meet.” It is apparent Smith is very high on this colt, but he will have to deliver in the Arkansas Derby to prevent Smith from jumping ship to Roadster. Realistically, he is heading into the toughest prep of the meet, and all he needs to do is run his race, look strong at the end, and not lose ground in the final furlong. In his last two starts he paired up his career-high Thoro-Graph number and now needs only to move forward a little more and not regress to put him in position to fire his best shot at Churchill Downs. As owner Rick Porter said, “He’s getting better and better and Dick is on cloud nine.” For now that is good enough for me.

Win Win Win Michael Trombetta

Hat Trick (JPN)—Miss Smarty Pants, by Smarty Jones

Sometimes it’s good to go against the crowd. This colt is ranked 16th in the latest NTRA poll. Yes, this is a bold move, but in a year so wide open and with so many question marks and not having a clue where to rank these horses, sometimes you just go with your gut and lean toward a horse you have always liked and who you’ve stuck with all year. On the logical side, unlike many of the others he has already run in a 14-horse field and showed he can handle traffic and recover from adversity. I have no idea how he managed to get up for second in the Blue Grass, but that final closing burst bought his ticket to Louisville. If only this colt once could have an uneventful start and use his exceptional speed. This is a horse with sprinter’s speed who has been forced to run like Silky Sullivan. And who knows what would have happened if he didn’t have to steady at the five-sixteenths pole and lose all momentum at a crucial point. As it is, he recovered, was forced seven to eight wide and still came home his final eighth in :12 2/5, by far the fastest of any horse in the race, including the winner, who had a perfect stalking trip. The Tampa Derby form also was boosted when Tacitus won the Wood Memorial. And it must be noted that in six of the seven dirt races on the card, the winner was running first or second no more than a half-length off the lead and on the inside part of the track. In the other dirt race the winner came from two lengths back. He had to come from 13th and rally extremely wide over an apparent speed-favoring track. He was really rolling around the turn, slicing through the big field, when he ran right up on the heels of a retreating Admire and Parsimony. Ortiz no doubt expected to go around them, but Sir Winston moved up outside him and blocked his escape route, which forced Ortiz to step on the brake and then have to put him in gear again. What bodes well for the Derby is we know he has speed and has several gears and has the capability of winning from anywhere on the track. And having five Kentucky Derby winners and four Belmont winners in your pedigree doesn’t hurt.

Tacitus Bill Mott

Tapit—Close Hatches, by First Defence

As I mentioned earlier, this is a crap shoot and these rankings are interchangeable with very little separating each horse. I put him up high for the same reason I put Win Win Win up so high. He has run big in a large field and has overcome adversity. And, he is the first horse this year to win back to back major preps, accomplishing that while still a bit green and learning how to be a racehorse. I don’t believe we have a clue how good this horse is or how much improvement he still has in him. First he wins the Tampa Bay Derby off a neck maiden win, only two career starts, and four-month layoff. And he did it rallying between horses, learning his first valuable lesson. Watching the Wood Memorial I thought he had lost all chance early on after getting slammed into so hard shortly after the start it turned him sideways. That apparently got his blood up and he had to bull his way into the clear, shoving horses out of his way going into the first turn. If that wasn’t a good dress rehearsal for the Kentucky Derby I never saw one. This colt has so much raw talent, just wait until he actually matures. And, yes, he still has some maturing to do, as indicated from the way he loses a bit of focus once he makes the lead, flicking his ears around. The fact that he keeps finding ways to win and is so resilient and professional before that shows how much ability he has. And he was being pushed on the turn, so you know he can sustain his run a long way. As assistant trainer Riley Mott said, “It gives you the feeling there’s more to be discovered with him.” He’s been toughened and tested and now looks ready to put it all together.

Roadster Bob Baffert

Quality Road—Ghost Dancing, by Silver Ghost

Well, he’s no secret weapon anymore, and in fact is now the favorite for the Derby on the final Future Wager pool and is ranked No. 1 on the NTRA poll. He started out last July as Baffert’s next big horse and after having a breathing problem corrected and a long layoff, he could very well be right back where he started heading to Churchill Downs. So why don’t I have him ranked higher? First off, unlike Win Win Win and Tacitus, he’s been running in five- and six-horse fields and only has four career starts, and only three horses in the past 101 years have won the Derby with four or fewer starts. Yes, Tacitus also has four starts, but has gotten far more experience out of those four starts, facing bigger fields and more obstacles. Also, if Omaha Beach wins the Arkansas Derby he likely will lose Mike Smith and will have a new rider in the Derby, and losing Mike Smith would be a big negative. If Omaha Beach disappoints and Roadster keeps Smith, then he could very well move up the list. Roadster no doubt is very gifted and quick on his feet and his future is limitless. Many thought he would be sitting right off Instagrand in the Santa Anta Derby, but Smith took him well off the pace and then fell even farther back heading into the far turn. He looked dead in the water with way too much ground to make up, especially not being a come-from-behind horse heading into the far turn. But he closed in quickly, swung wide, and powered home like a natural closer to edge out Game Winner. This added an entirely new dimension to the colt. You have to love the continuity of his pedigree, just like the old private stables. The late Edward P. (Ned) Evans not only owned and bred his sire, he bred his first four dams after purchasing his fifth dam. As Evans’ former farm manager Chris Baker, now the farm manager of Three Chimneys Farm, said, “This family has been winning grade 1 stakes for over 30 years. Arthur Hancock (who bred Roadster) told me breeding Ned top and bottom is his new nick.”

Game Winner Bob Baffert

Candy Ride (ARG)—Indyan Giving, by A.P. Indy

I was surprised he was given such a wide trip in the Santa Anita Derby in such a small field, and it could very well have cost him the race, as he was parked wide every step of the way. But take nothing away from Roadster’s huge performance. The bottom line is that he’s been beaten twice as the odds-on favorite, once failing to catch a horse and once being caught. The last thing you want to see in your final prep is to either lose ground in the stretch or get caught. But the wide trip definitely is a legitimate excuse, as he was coming back in only three weeks following a hard race in the Rebel Stakes and traveling cross-country. I just don’t know what his real strength is. It’s not his speed or his closing kick or his turn of foot. He just keeps coming at you. In his last four races, however, he has beaten Gunmetal Gray and Knicks Go (who has been a huge disappointment this year) and then was beaten in his two starts this year. So perhaps we really don’t know as much about him as we thought we once did. What we do know is that he is tough, runs his heart out every time, and Baffert said he “has a lot of Silver Charm in him.” That is high praise indeed, and although he has fallen off the top spot, he is still a horse to be feared and respected.

Maximum Security Jason Servis

New Year's Day—Lil Indy, by Anasheed

Few if any horses have made such a dramatic ascent on the Derby trail as this colt. For a horse who was deemed so inferior that he was culled to thin out the Wests’ crop of 2-year-olds to rise to leading Kentucky Derby contender is something out of an old-time Hollywood flick. But here he is a $16,000 claimer only four months ago on the threshold of Derby immortality. People still wonder how a horse with this kind of brilliance and so much quality wound up running so cheaply. The detailed explanation and the entire story behind the colt can be found below in Knocking on the Door. This is a horse you can easily rank No. 1 off his brilliant Florida Derby victory. His Thoro-Graph, Brisnet, and Beyer numbers all make him the fastest horse in the Derby. I like to hold off on speed horses until I see how the Derby field shapes up and how much speed is in there. But with him I believe he can rate off the pace if he has to, and in fact could be a budding superstar. With his unusual background, he’s a hard horse to root against. The thought of him charging down the Churchill Downs stretch eyeball to eyeball with last year’s 2-year-old champion and the Wests’ more illustrious star is the old “too Hollywood to be true” formula that was the basis for most old-time horse racing films. It is Bluegrass vs. Postman all over again (from the classic movie “Kentucky”).

Vekoma George Weaver

Candy Ride (ARG)—Mona de Momma, by Speightstown

Talk about no respect, of the voters in the NTRA poll, eight different horses received first-place votes, none of them Vekoma, despite winning the Blue Grass with authority. Even Bellafina received a first-place vote. I had been reluctant to put him in the Top 12 because of his awkward way of going, between paddling badly and cocking his head, but he sure doesn’t let it affect his performance. Yes, he beat Win Win Win by open lengths, but he had a much better trip pressing the pace on a speed-favoring track. He actually had the fastest Thoro-Graph number of any 2-year-old last year, which is still the fastest number of any 3-year-old among the top 20 point leaders. And his Thoro-Graph number in the Fountain of Youth was faster than the two horses who finished in front of him. And judging from his Trakus numbers in the Blue Grass I will guess he’ll get another good number in the Blue Grass. He has never run slower than a “4 1/4” (in his debut), which makes him the fastest 3-year-old in the country on a consistent basis along with Game Winner. As for his unsightly stride, look at it this way, throughout history we have had lessons in beauty being in the eye of the beholder. We had the Phantom of the Opera and Christine, Cyrano and Roxane, Quasimodo and Esmeralda, and The Beast and Belle. If those beauties could see beyond the deformities we will learn to see beyond Vekoma’s unsightly action and his head cocking as long as he keeps running like he did in the Blue Grass. To those who bet him, you can be sure he looked awfully attractive opening up in the stretch. We really have no idea when or if his action will catch up to him. I remember Pine Bluff paddled his leg and he won a Preakness. Right now, all I know is that he is fast. How far he can carry his speed with the number of sprinters and speed influences in his female family we have no idea. He sure had no problem with a mile and an eighth.

Improbable Bob Baffert

City Zip—Rare Event, by A.P. Indy

If you’re in a tizzy over him dropping several places, there simply were too many good performances last week by horses who have proven themselves at 1 1/8 miles in top class company. And he’s not even in the Derby yet. He needs a first- or second-place finish in the Arkansas Derby to earn a starting berth at Churchill Downs, and in such a talent-laden field a nose could make the difference, so he needs a better trip than he got in the Rebel Stakes when he was forced to go wide all the way, much the same way Game Winner did in the Santa Anita Derby. He gets a new rider in Jose Ortiz and gets blinkers because he’s had a tendency to lose focus in the stretch, and he’s been cocking his head in his works lately. Remember, Ortiz is the regular rider for Tacitus, so Baffert better start planning his follow-up shot. But all in all he appears to be coming into the race in good shape, and a big effort will put him back up near the top. Baffert is confident he will run big and let’s not forget he is on a very strong Thoro-Graph pattern. He did get caught at 2-5 in the Rebel and even with the wide trip, many believe a 2-5 shot should never get caught in the final furlong, especially by a horse who was on the lead and dropped back to fifth, then came on like a fresh horse. We’ll learn a lot more on Saturday when we see if the blinkers keep him more focused. There is no doubt the raw ability is there, and he still has the biggest and smoothest stride I’ve seen this year. When he is focused, he is pure poetry to watch.

Long Range Toddy Steve Asmussen

Take Charge Indy—Pleasant Song, by Unbridled's Song

He’s another who had to be lowered to make room for others. But I still think a lot of him and feel he is improving in leaps and bounds. And he has a lot more mileage under him than his main opponents, having already competed at a mile or farther five times, winning or placing in five stakes. The reason I lowered him as opposed to any of the others is that, while his Thoro-Graph numbers are improving, his number in the Rebel was significantly slower than those of Improbable and Game Winner due to his ground-saving trip. So it looks as if he needs to jump at least three points in the Arkansas Derby to repeat. He will be the great defender of Oaklawn Park, as he attempts to hold off the onslaught of California invaders Omaha Beach, Improbable, and Galilean, as well as Country House from the Bill Mott barn. With everything that’s happened since the Rebel he seems to have fallen a little under the radar, but a victory could actually make him the Derby favorite or no worse than second choice. This is a gorgeous horse who could become a fan favorite heading into the Derby with a victory Saturday.

Spinoff Todd Pletcher

Hard Spun—Zaftig, by Gone West

Lowering this colt from No. 5 really hurt, and I have to admit, now that I have a phone betting account, I actually played him in the last two Future Wagers, figuring there is no way I’m going to get 35-1 on him on Derby Day. But this year you never know. Like with Win Win Win and Omaha Beach, I’ve been going by gut instinct with him, believing he is a very talented colt. Even with the six-week layoff to the Derby and getting caught in the Louisiana Derby, I feel strongly he needed that race badly coming off only one allowance laugher at Tampa Bay in 7 1/2 months. If you go into a major stakes a Fair Grounds race a little short, that long stretch can seem endless. I liked his :48 4/5 breeze in his first work back and expect Pletcher to give him several serious works leading up to the Derby. He now looks like Pletcher’s main hope, along with Cutting Humor, and we’ll see who Johnny V decides to ride at Churchill Downs. It would be hard to go off this colt, who is just coming into peak form and looks to have a world of ability. He is lightly raced and will have only two starts in the last nine months and a six-week layoff going into the Derby, so, as I said, keep a close eye on his works. If I like what I see, he could very well creep his way back toward the top.

Tax Danny Gargan

Arch—Toll, by Giant's Causeway

He is obviously the best claiming story other than Maximum Security, and claimed from Claiborne Farm no less. I love that he was able to lay seven lengths off the pace in the Wood Memorial, put in a strong run and then go toe to toe with Tacitus, hanging tough despite being crowded late by the winner, while finishing nearly three lengths ahead of the late-running Haikal. He has three straight mile and an eighth races under him. I didn’t put him in the Top 12 after the Withers because it was a three-horse photo with horses of unknown quality, the runner-up seemed to be coming back at him at the wire, and his Thoro-Graph number regressed three points off his third in the Remsen. But I am now sold on him. Despite coming into the Wood a fresh horse off a two-month layoff and several very fast works over the deep Belmont training track, he never was headstrong and was content to sit way behind the battling leaders. Unlike Jason Servis with Maximum Security, they went to the claiming well once too often, getting away with it for $30,000 and then losing him for $50,000. The reason he is a number of places below Tacitus is because the winner had a far worse trip early, but I loved the way he ran, even getting passed in the stretch, which I usually frown upon. We now know he is versatile and doesn’t need to be close to the pace, and with his stamina-laden pedigree it makes him a legitimate contender who comes into the Derby with a great foundation under him. Unlike many of the others, there is absolutely, unequivocally no question he will relish the mile and a quarter. Too bad they dropped him from the Future Wager field; he is a live longshot.

By My Standards Bret Calhoun

Goldencents—A Jealous Woman, by Muqtarib

He is another who had to be reluctantly lowered and probably will be forgotten come Derby Day. When you have six weeks off before the big race it’s natural for him to be out of sight, out of mind. Although he looked as if the added distance shouldn’t be a problem, his pedigree still raises questions. But like several of the others, he is improving at the right time. However, he still has a ways to go. Although he improved his Thoro-Graph number three points off his maiden score, he still has to improve at least another three points to be competitive with the top horses, and he has to do it in the Derby off a six-week layoff. He is by a young stallion, so we can’t say Goldencents, who was a sprinter/miler for most of his career, can’t sire a classic horse. We just don’t know, and when trying to assess these Derby horses who are so close together, you have to go by something, and Goldencents’ sire, Into Mischief, also is a question mark over a distance of ground. They said Distorted Humor, Elusive Quality, and Boundary were not classic sires, so we’ll just have to wait and see. All we can go by right now is the way he came off an impressive maiden victory and won the Louisiana Derby. But now he has to step it up a notch, perhaps a few notches.

KNOCKING ON THE DOOR

Getting back to the NTRA poll, eight horses received first-place votes, none of them the Blue Grass or Louisiana Derby winner which shows you what a crazy, wide-open year this has been. We’re even going to have two former claimers and a maiden in the field, and all three have good credentials, finishing first or second in 100-point stakes.

There are some very live horses knocking on the door, including ANOTHERTWISTAFATE, who I had to drop because he is currently at No. 23 on the points leaderboard. So he likely will have to run in the Lexington Stakes to try to pick up the needed points. A victory there and he could easily make his way back on. Having run six weeks before the Derby, that probably is a good spot for him anyway even if he didn’t need the points. But, as mentioned last week, it could negate the altitude angle. If there is such a thing, you want to use it in the Derby as Mine That Bird did, not in the Lexington. I do love that he is still training at Sunland Park and blazed a half-mile in a bullet :46 4/5.

Two other very live Derby horses who will run in the Arkansas Derby looking for an upset or at least a second-place finish are GALILEAN and COUNTRY HOUSE, who I wrote about last week. Country House has some flexibility with 30 points and in the No. 24 spot. But Galilean, with only 7 1/2 points, definitely needs a first or second-place finish. Flavien Prat was thrilled with his six-furlong work in 1:14 3/5 and he now looks to be Jerry Hollendorfer’s last shot at getting in the Derby with INSTAGRAND likely going back to shorter distances. Galilean was in the Top 12 for a number of weeks and he should be ready for a much-improved performance with a better trip than he got in the Rebel Stakes. I still believe this is a very talented horse.

As for Country House, hats off to Bill Mott for running him back in three weeks and then another three weeks to the Kentucky Derby. That is as old-school as you’re going to get these days. Yes he’s doing it partly because of the points and the $1 million purse, although he could have taken his chances with 30 points, but he has no reservations about doing it with this particular colt.

Assistant trainer Riley Mott said, “With another type of horse we would probably just let it be, but we feel he is a true mile and a quarter type of horse that could certainly be right in the mix in the final eighth if he gets the right set up, so this is why we would like to get him into the field. Another reason to run him back in Arkansas is because we feel he’s a sort of a throwback type of horse that just gets better the more you do with him. He’s a big, hardy type of horse that’s very tough physically and mentally so he should improve the more he runs.” Yep, old school alright. And a very interesting tout for Country House as a Derby horse.

Speaking of points, sitting at No. 20 right now is BOURBON WAR, who is another trying to get in the race and also could be a live longshot, as his Florida Derby was a lot better than it looks on paper, and he does have a big turn of foot he can use on the far turn or in the stretch. In the Florida Derby he definitely was hurt by the slow early pace and rapid final three furlongs. I can see him rebounding in the Kentucky Derby.

Going into the Wood Memorial I was looking to see if HAIKAL was just a one-turn closer because of his pedigree and his come-from-the-clouds running style. Well, he wound up finishing third, but he ran like a two-turn closer, so I actually feel better about him now as a Derby horse. He didn’t have than same late burst he’s shown in his other races and maybe that final furlong did get to him. But he showed that he does belong in the Kentucky Derby.

Also, it was good to see SIGNALMAN rebound off his poor effort in the Fountain of Youth, just getting nipped on the wire for second in the Blue Grass. He always seems to find himself on the inside and Saturday was no different. He is a one-paced grinder and does have to show a little more punch in the stretch, but he is a big long-striding horse and the mile and a quarter should suit him well, especially over a track on which he scored his biggest victory.

As promised last week, here is the story behind MAXIMUM SECURITY. First off, his sire wasn’t exactly setting the world on fire, so Gary West told his longtime racing manager and bloodstock agent Ben Glass to sell him and find a farm who would buy half-interest. Although the asking price was cheap, no one wanted to stand him. Finally, a syndicate from South America bought him and sent him to Brazil. The dam, Lil Indy, had sold for a meager $2,200 as a yearling before being purchased by Glass for $80,000 in foal to Pioneerof the Nile. She was a half-sister to two-time Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Flat Out. The resulting foal finished out of the money in all five of her starts. Lil Indy’s third foal, a full brother to Maximum Security, ran for $7,500 to $10,000 claiming races and finished out of the money in six of his final seven races.

Maximum Security was a late foal, born May 15, and his knees didn’t close (the bones didn’t fuse together). West, with over 100 horses, needed to get rid of those who didn’t measure up, and this colt, physically and family-wise, certainly didn’t measure up. They decided to wait until July for his knees to close so they could eventually run him for a claiming tag. They sent him to Jason Servis along with several other maidens they needed to cull and told him to move them along. But this colt immediately came down with sore shins, so they had to wait for him to get healthy.

The colt hadn’t shown anything on the farm or at the track in the morning, so when Servis told Glass he wasn’t working that well, Glass said to just put him in for $16,000. But once he got over his shin problems and was ready to run, Servis noticed something about him and told Glass, “You know, this horse may better than we think. Maybe we should run him for $40,000.” But having just practically given his sire away because no one wanted him, having just sold his dam for a meager $11,000 after having paid $80,000 for her and seeing her go off to Korea, having seen his sister, Lily of the Nile, sell at the sale as a 4-year-old for a paltry $3,000, and with his siblings having done nothing on the track, they decided to stick with the original plan to run for a $16,000 claiming tag figuring people would see he’s a homebred with a dismal family history and assume they were just trying to get rid of a crooked horse.

Even though Maximum Security surprised everyone by romping by 9 3/4 lengths, with no one claiming him, the following month Lily of the Nile sold again, this time for only $5,000. Now, three months later, here is that one-time reject, a winner of the grade 1 Florida Derby, a winner of all four of his starts by an average margin of 9 1/2 lengths, and one of the favorites for the Kentucky Derby, and somewhere out there, someone has his dam for $11,000 and his half sister by Pioneerof the Nile for $5,000.

As Glass said, “I honestly don’t have the answers. All of a sudden this colt woke up. You just never know in this game. When you have over 100 horses you have to move some of them along. Dr. David Lambert once told me a horse’s heart develops by racing and putting stress on it because it isn’t fully developed before they run. Sometimes you can’t tell about a horse until they test out their heart. We don’t even know yet if he’s just a horse for course or if he’s this good. It was totally different with Game Winner. The first time we breezed him I sent a text to Gary saying “We just breezed the next Gun Runner (another son of Candy Ride).”

Don’t forget about PLUS QUE PARFAIT and GRAY MAGICIAN, both coming off superb performances in the UAE Derby. With them it’s all about whether they can recover from the trip to and from Dubai and having a hard race., and then improving their U.S. form. Plus Que Parfait is another who is guaranteed to love the mile and a quarter, even though he already showed that winning at 1 3/16 miles. His sire Point of Entry won several mile-an- a-half races and is inbred to class/stamina specialist His Majesty through his son, Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Pleasant Colony, and his daughter Andover Way, the dam of distance-loving Dynaformer. Plus Que Parfait’s female family is inundated with stamina. Gray Magician’s pedigree has more question marks, but with the amount of ground he lost in the UAE Derby, it is safe to assume the 1 1/4 miles will be no problem.

With the Derby trail so wide open and the battle for points so intense and the possibility of several top horses getting left out, you can expect some disgruntled trainers and owners if two of the spots are occupied by foreign-trained horses. We already know that the Japanese-trained and bred MASTER FENCER is heading to Louisville after finishing second in the nine-furlong Fukuryu Stakes at Nakayama. The 16 points he earned makes him the point leader of the Japanese nominated horses. Master Fencer was back in last early and was under the whip a long way out. He did demonstrate of a good turn of foot to circle the field, sweeping by everyone around the turn, only to get hung very wide at the head of the stretch. He continued on strongly but was outrun by the victorious Der Flug to be beaten 1 1/2 lengths. The extremely tight turns might have hurt him in this race as he tried to corner while running so wide, but could help him make the transition to American racing. The race, however, was on a right-handed track, so he will have to make that transition.

Master Fencer is by Sunday Silence’s grandson Just A Way, out of a Deputy Minister mare. His second dam is by Broad Brush and his third dam is by Chief’s Crown, so there are plenty of U.S.-bred horses in his pedigree.

The other spot we won’t know about until we see how the Aidan O’Brien-trained U S S MICHIGAN and ANTILLES, both sons of War Front, do in the Woodford Reserve Cardinal Conditions Stakes over a mile on the Polytrack surface at Chelmsford. U S S Michigan is coming off a victory at Dundalk going six furlongs, while Antilles won his last start at Naas going seven furlongs.

Still waiting for Sunland Derby winner CUTTING HUMOR to return to the worktab (This was sent in before Tuesday’s works). It’s been more than two weeks, so we’ll see when he shows up. If John Velazquez decides to go with Spinoff he will need a new rider.

We’ll also wait to see when Shug McGaughey decides to send CODE OF HONOR to Kentucky. He works beautifully at Payson Park, but I want to see how he handles Churchill Downs. He is another who gets a pass in the Florida Derby because of the pace scenario, but I would have liked to have seen him make a little more of an impact with the ground-saving trip he had. He still needs to learn how to keep a straight course in the stretch, which he does in his works. I don’t know whether he’s getting a bit tired or loses focus at the end of his races. He did seem to pull himself up in the Fountain of Youth, so he is another who is still a work in progress and has to get it all together, and now.

It’s too early to tell how good this crop is. These horses are not fast if you go by all the speed ratings, but it does seem to be a very deep crop with a number of live longshots outside the Top 12 and in the mutual field in the Future Wager. Everything will finally come into focus after Saturday’s Arkansas Derby, which will have a major impact on the Derby picture.

Derby Dozen - April 2, 2019 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Blood-Horse Staff — Tue, 02 Apr 2019 17:30:00 GMT

Omaha Beach Richard Mandella

War Front—Charming, by Seeking the Gold

You couldn’t have watched his last work, a bullet half in :47 4/5 without feeling very good about this horse and the progress he’s been making. He was just cruising off a workmate and when set down inside the eighth pole he took off opening seven lengths in a flash and showing great extension. Mandella said he’s just blooming and looks like a million bucks. He’ll have his hands full in the Arkansas Derby, but I just want to see him strong at the end and not losing ground in the last eighth of a mile. I know Mandella is very excited about him and that’s good enough for me in a year when no one has emerged as a bona fide star. Now that he has paired his last two races on Thoro-Graph it’s time to make one more move forward to set him up for a big number on the first Saturday in May.

Game Winner Bob Baffert

Candy Ride (ARG)—Indyan Giving, by A.P. Indy

Although his half-mile work in :48 4/5 with Dr. Dorr doesn’t seem all that exciting, I thought this was one of his better works, the way he leveled off immediately, the way he cornered, and most of all the way he dug down and wouldn’t let Dr. Dorr get by him. Remember, not only is Dr. Dorr a graded stakes winner, he was Justify’s workmate, so Game Winner has been tested in the morning. He then came back and turned in an almost identical work with a different workmate, going six furlongs in 1:13 2/5, again breaking off a half-length in front and digging in down the stretch. I love how smoothly he’s been going in his recent works. But all of a sudden the Wests have another Derby horse and a homebred at that. They sure wouldn’t mind going into the Kentucky Derby with a Santa Anita Derby winner and a Florida Derby winner. Baffert compares this colt to Silver Charm in terms of grittiness and he’s been showing it in the morning working in front of horses. It would be interesting to see him on the lead in the stretch and see if he lets horses get by him. We just have to see how he handles coming back in three weeks off a hard race. Judging from his works, he appears to have bounced out of the Rebel in great shape and his energy level is high.

Improbable Bob Baffert

City Zip—Rare Event, by A.P. Indy

Baffert sure isn’t standing pat on his training of this colt. He worked him in company for the first time and with blinkers for the first time. He had him break off two lengths behind his workmate. He was striding our beautifully, but is still cocking his head to the outside, and his workmate did gallop out in front of him. But you can’t fault his time of 1:12 4/5. It was strange seeing him behind a workmate and Game Winner in front of a workmate. Like Game Winner he’s on an excellent Thoro-Graph pattern. With his new training style and the possibility of blinkers being added, we really have no idea what to expect in the Arkansas Derby in regard to how he will be ridden. On paper, everything looks good as far as his speed ratings and progression, but you still have to wonder if he should have been caught in the Rebel Stakes, despite his wide trip. He seemingly had that race locked up in midstretch. However, we really don’t know good Long Range Toddy is right now. The Arkansas Derby should be quite a battle.

Long Range Toddy Steve Asmussen

Take Charge Indy—Pleasant Song, by Unbridled's Song

He had an easy half-mile breeze in :51 in preparation for the Arkansas Derby and a showdown with Omaha Beach and Improbable in what could be the most important prep of the year. I know this colt is improving in leaps and bounds at the right time, but I really believe he is turning into a better horse than most people think and is a very serious contender. He demonstrated his sharpness by working five furlongs in 1:00 flat. It’s one thing to see a lightly raced horse improving at the right time, but you have to love it when a horse with three one-mile races and two 1 1/16-mile races under him is improving. That’s quite a solid foundation. If you’re a speed figure person, however, you do have to take into consideration that he ran a “4 1/4” in the Rebel, compared to a “1 1/2” by Improbable, so you can imagine the difference in ground loss. And Long Range Toddy is going to have to keep improving, and by three to four points, to be considered a major threat on speed figures. What is cause for optimism is that he improved three points off his previous two races and could do it again.

Spinoff Todd Pletcher

Hard Spun—Zaftig, by Gone West

Pletcher’s horses seem to be on an upward spiral and none more so that this colt. I believe the Louisiana Derby was a major step forward, and perhaps Pletcher is right in liking the six weeks to the big race. I am still a bit skeptical with that based on the record of the Louisiana Derby in the Kentucky Derby and the record of horses coming off a six-week layoff, but I just like this colt too much to make me back off him. You can’t just go by the stats in regard to his Louisiana Derby performance. You have to take into consideration the fact that he raced greenly in the stretch, trying to get out a little, which made Johnny V go to a right-handed whip, and still pulled well clear of the third horse and was running straight at the end. He is on an excellent Thoro-Graph pattern and not only ran nearly two points faster than the winner, he ran the same number as Omaha Beach in one division of the Rebel Stakes and two points faster than Long Range Toddy in the other division, despite the greenness and making only his second start in seven months. So there is a lot to like about this colt and I would hope Johnny Velazquez sticks with him, especially after Code of Honor’s lackluster performance in the Florida Derby.

Maximum Security Jason Servis

New Year's Day—Lil Indy, by Anasheed

You can look at this enigmatic colt’s performance in the Florida Derby in two ways. You can either be impressed by the way he dominated the race and came home his last three-eighths in a sensational :35 4/5 (:23 2/5 and :12 2/5) or pay little attention to it because the runner-up was a 71-1 maiden and the top pair stole it running one-two the whole way around off slow fractions. I put him fairly high up for several reasons. I do love that final three-eighths; only good horses come home that fast on the lead. Yes, he slowed the pace down to :48 4/5 and 1:12 4/5, but if you’re thinking Kentucky Derby that actually is a positive. I don’t want a horse who goes out there in :45 and change and 1:09 and change. I want to see horse I know has blazing speed be able to slow the pace down and relax as he did, with his ears up and flipping back and forth just following his rider’s cues. We know he has blazing speed because he went into the race off the fastest Thoro-Graph figure of the year except for Hidden Scroll’s maiden win. He jumped six points from his second start to his third start and still ran a monster race in a grade 1 going two turns for the first time and not running against claimers for the first time. Servis sure had no idea what he had, so forget the quality of those first three starts. The fact is he is undefeated with a staggering average margin of victory of 9 1/2 lengths. And I don’t believe he needs the lead. As for defeating a maiden, Bodexpress had pretty much the same last-out Thoro-Graph number as the three favorites, so he did have credibility and is improving. This fascinating colt could be something special who will be known as one of the most misjudged horses of all time. But I just spoke to racing manager Ben Glass and I will tell the whole story next week.There is a reason why he ran so cheaply.

By My Standards Bret Calhoun

Goldencents—A Jealous Woman, by Muqtarib

When you really think about it, what this colt did in the Louisiana Derby was pretty impressive. Not only did he win coming off a maiden victory, he was given some obstacles to overcome and overcame them like an old pro, being behind horses, altering course and darting to the inside, and then coming between horses and outrunning Spinoff to the wire. As mentioned earlier, however, he did run a significantly slower Thoro-Graph number than the runner-up, saving ground the entire race. And we still have no idea how far he wants to go. But if he can stretch out another eighth of a mile with no problem he still is on a good Thoro-Graph pattern. He just needs to get faster. So there are things to like about him and other things to question. This is what happens when you have lightly raced horses who emerge on the scene in March and April. You just don’t know what you’re dealing with and that makes it difficult to get a handle on them.

Anothertwistafate Blaine Wright

Scat Daddy—Imprecation, by First Defence

I really have no idea how impressive the Sunland Derby was other than it was a good race for him visually, especially the way he was lengthening his stride in the final furlong. But we really don’t know how Cutting Humor stacks up, and Mucho Gusto didn’t look as if he wanted any part a mile and eighth the way the race shaped up. This colt is still a bit of an unknown, as are many of them this year. I do like all the conditioning he has and all the miles under him, which shouldn’t make the six-week layoff to the Kentucky Derby too much of a problem. I have made a number of references over the past few years about horses coming to the Derby after prolonged periods of time at high altitudes, such as monster longshot winners Mine That Bird and Canonero II, as well as Conquest Mo Money, who nearly upset Classic Empire in the Arkansas Derby at 17-1 coming from an extended stay at Sunland Park. Well, Anothertwistafate has to remain at Sunland Park to train because a horse is his barn at Golden Gate died of equine herpesvirus and it could actually benefit him in regard to the Kentucky Derby if he remains there long enough before shipping to Churchill Downs. Hey, there are a million angles in racing, especially on the Derby trail, so you never know. It doesn’t hurt to throw it out there.

Win Win Win Michael Trombetta

Hat Trick (JPN)—Miss Smarty Pants, by Smarty Jones

He worked five furlongs in 1:01 2/5 at Fair Hill. I haven’t lost faith in this horse, despite his no show on the other weekly Derby polls. He is certainly eligible to jump right back up near the top with a big effort in his next start. But talk about being under everyone’s radar, he was not listed as a probable or even possible for either the Wood Memorial or Toyota Blue Grass until Monday (April 1) when it was announced he will run at Keeneland. Seems the tracks weren’t aware of it before then. Trombetta said it was between those two races, but he was concerned about the deeper track in New York. He also would be able to keep Irad Ortiz as his rider if he ran in the Blue Grass and he feels that Keeneland would fit his style of running more. Trombetta also said he has done very well since his third-place finish in the Tampa Bay Derby. The biggest issue with the Blue Grass is dealing with the full field and early cavalry charge right into that first turn. So post positions are going to be important. We really don’t know his best running style because of poor starts, but if he is best running closer to the pace than he has been then he sure doesn’t want to draw an outside post with that sharp first turn.

Tacitus Bill Mott

Tapit—Close Hatches, by First Defence

His most recent work, a half in :49 4/5, was far more impressive visually than his previous work. This time, working in dense fog, he broke off in front of his workmate and was moving with more authority. He is still a work in progress and has a lot of upside after turning in a performance in the Tampa Bay Derby he didn’t look like he was ready for. He now heads for the Wood Memorial and there is no pressure on him to win. A good performance in which he is running strongly again at the wire would set him up nicely for the Derby. Again, there are so many stakes winners on this year’s Derby trail who are still unknown quantities because they simply have not raced enough. So we can only project what they will do in upcoming races. After the drastic improvement he showed from his first two starts last year, we can safely predict we only saw the tip of the iceberg at Tampa Bay. He is still a bit green and has to learn how to keep his head a bit lower, and we’ll see if he is more polished in the Wood Memorial and can take another step forward.

Roadster Bob Baffert

Quality Road—Ghost Dancing, by Silver Ghost

This could very well be Baffert's secret weapon that he is just waiting to unleash in the Santa Anita Derby. Having to finish first or second against Game Winner, Instagrand, Nolo Contesto and the others is not an easy task, but this horse is just coming around and may be ready to pop a big one. Baffert is really tightening the screws with strong six- furlong works five days apart, the most recent in company with a blinkered workmate who can run. The pair finished up nearly on equal terms in a bullet 1:12 3/5. Roadster had previously worked six furlongs in 1:14. I would like to see him drop his head a little more when he turns for home and cut that corner better, but he’s been moving well down the stretch. Remember, he was all the buzz in the Baffert barn last year after he broke his maiden first time out. Then he exited the Del Mar Futurity with a breathing problem that has been alleviated. Like so many others, it’s going to get awfully tight trying to get in the Derby and if he is to get a starting berth he will have to earn it on Saturday. Judging from his works I don’t know if he has the closing punch to run horses down, so expect to see him make his move earlier on.

Cutting Humor Todd Pletcher

First Samurai—Pun, by Pulpit

He’s a very solid horse who held on to the final spot this week because of the disappointing efforts by Code of Honor and Bourbon War, but he could very well drop off after next week’s three big prep races, which should help put this perplexing puzzle together. But he does seem to be improving; we just have no idea how good he is or how far he wants to go. After his alarming regression in the Southwest Stakes, his Thoro-Graph number leaped nearly seven points in the Sunland Derby, making him competitive with the leading 3-year-olds. With such a big jump, perhaps the six weeks will benefit him. What is important to remember about the Sunland Derby is that as quickly as Anothertwistafate was getting to him at the end he stopped gaining right before the wire and never got by him on the gallop-out. Not only does Pletcher, who was counted out earlier in the year, now have two horses in the Top 12, he could very well have a couple more after this weekend. We know Starlight Racing has owned a small piece of Justify, Audible, and Improbable, but they would love nothing more than to see their familiar blue silks back in the Kentucky Derby.

KNOCKING ON THE DOOR

I’m not discounting the possibility of rebound efforts by CODE OF HONOR and BOURBON WAR in the Kentucky Derby, just as I’m not discounting a much-improved effort by WAR OF WILL off his Louisiana Derby debacle, but there is no way to keep them in the Top 12 after their performances in the Florida Derby, and no way to keep War of Will on until he shows he is healthy and trains up a storm. Code of Honor showed he is still a bit green and was unable to keep a straight course in the stretch, wandering around a bit and not firing late. Bourbon War made a pretty decent move on the far turn, but the slow pace, wide trip, and fast come-home time by the first two made it nearly impossible for him to win. He still has to be considered a legitimate Derby contender. The question with both horses is whether they will be as effective at a mile and a quarter. Their pedigrees are OK, but nothing there to reassure you they will handle the distance.

As I have mentioned, the Florida horses in general have been pretty slow according to Thoro-Graph and most of them ran to their past numbers. Bourbon War had an excellent number in his allowance victory, but regressed 2 1/2 points in his second-place finish in the Fountain of Youth. Maximum Security, as mentioned earlier, was coming off a race that was much faster than anything the others were coming off of and Bodexpress, the 71-1 maiden who ran second, was coming off a number that was right there with the others, so numbers-wise, this result was not as far-fetched as some might think. War of Will had paired up two very fast numbers before the Louisiana Derby, so with him it’s just a question of what he got out of the race and how be recovers from the minor injury suffered at the start of the race.

Earlier in the day at Meydan, PLUS QUE PARFAIT rebounded off two disappointing efforts at Fair Grounds by winning the UAE Derby and stamping his ticket to Louisville. But last year’s Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes runner-up did not make the Top 12 because I don’t believe he was the best horse in the race. If I were to venture a guess I would say that the runner-up, fellow American GRAY MAGICIAN, will receive a faster Thoro-Graph number because of how wide he was every step of the way and how much farther he had to travel than the winner. I thought Gray Magician ran a terrific race and was running strongly at the wire. Not to take anything away from the winner, who saved ground the whole way but had to come between horses in the stretch before outrunning Gray Magician and local horse Manguzi in a tight three-horse finish. I do love Plus Que Parfait’s pedigree and am certain he will have no trouble with the mile an a quarter, especially having already won at 1 3/16 miles. His pedigree top and bottom is inundated with stamina as well as class influences.

The main problem I have with both horses is traveling to Dubai and then traveling back home and running in the Derby in five weeks when it usually takes horses anywhere from two to three months to run back after traveling there for the Dubai World Cup. And those are tough battle-tested older horses. It is very different being there and running as opposed to having to travel there and back. And both horses had hard races, so there is a major concern whether they can bounce out of this race and be at their best in five weeks. And remember, they weren’t exactly world beaters over here. One thing we did learn is that Gray Magician is much more effective coming from farther back, as he did in his only victory, a 9 1/2-length maiden romp, in which he was five lengths back, than running right up with the pace, as he did in his last three defeats.

There were two horses who were in the Top 12, and on whom I was extremely high, but had to drop them after disappointing races. I now am back on both bandwagons. Well at least having one foot on. Both are now huge longshots, but I am giving them a second chance. One is COUNTRY HOUSE, who came up empty in the stretch of the Louisiana Derby to finish fourth, and with 30 points might need to run in the Lexington Stakes. Right now he is OK at No. 17. But there are four major preps to come. The reason I am liking Country House again is I am going to forgive his Louisiana Derby considering how wide he was on both turns and what a strong run he put in on the far turn, looking like a winner at the head of the stretch.

Despite getting beat 6 1/2 lengths and failing to sustain his run, he basically earned the same Thoro-Graph number he did in his second-place finish in the Risen Star Stakes and was two points faster than his impressive maiden victory. So with his pedigree and his turn of foot, and being trained by Bill Mott, he gets a Mulligan and is back to being a legitimate longshot contender.

The other horse is DREAM MAKER, who I wrote about extensively after his jaw-dropping allowance victory at Fair Grounds that earned him a spot in the Top 12. He came back and turned in a dreadful performance in the Tampa Bay Derby, but I have convinced myself that race was too bad to be true, whether it was because he despised the Tampa surface or just was having a bad day. But that allowance win was too visually stunning to be a fluke, and after his recent bullet half-mile breeze in :46 flat at Keeneland, fastest 48 works at the distance, I believe he may be ready for a huge rebound performance in the Blue Grass Stakes. I know Mark Casse absolutely loved this horse and I am ready to jump back on his bandwagon as well.

Now comes the make or break weekend. The following weekend I dont expect much of a change at Oaklawn with three of the top four ranked horses running along with GALILEAN, another who had been in the Top 12. Most likely three of those horses will run well enough to still be major contenders, although Galilean does need a huge effort to crack the Derby field. He showed he is ready by working five furlongs in :59 3/5 at Los Alamitos. I know he’s been dropped from the Top 12, but only to make room for major stakes winners. After the smoke clears from this weekend, he could very well be back on in advance of the Arkansas Derby. He is better than his third-place finish in the Rebel Stakes. He just needs a better trip.

But this weekend anything can happen in the three stakes, especially the Wood Memorial and Blue Grass Stakes, and there no doubt will be new names added to the mix, as only two of the Top 12 horses will be in action at Keeneland and Aqueduct. The key horses in the Wood Memorial will be HAIKAL and Tacitus. If Haikal can duplicate his one-turn form going two turns then he will be become one of the leading contenders for sure and an exciting addition to the Top 12.

The one Blue Grass starter in the Top 12 is Win Win Win, who no one else has on their Derby list. This is going to be a cavalry charge that very well could be oversubscribed. You can count on a full gate. Coming up from Florida will be VEKOMA, third in the Fountain of Youth, along with SIGNALMAN, who could bounce back big-time from his dull effort in the Fountain of Youth, SO ALIVE, who has been working great for Pletcher, the late-running SIR WINSTON, and the aforementioned Dream Maker. Signalman and Vekoma also have bee turning sharp works and appear ready for a top effort. Coming off the Polytrack after crushing the Turfway Park Derby preps will be SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN, and then there is HOFFA’S UNION, who demolished a maiden field at Laurel in his career debut and now goes in the Blue Grass off one career start. Wayne Lukas will be represented by MARKET KING, who managed to hang on for third, beaten over eight lengths, after setting the pace in Omaha Beach’s division of the Rebel Stakes at odds of 48-1. Dale Romans has three longshot possibilities in ADMIRE, MOONSTER, and MR. ANKENY. All would be huge prices.

In addition to having an explosive closer like Haikal, the Wood Memorial will be a rematch between the Withers one-two finishers TAX, who has been working super, and NOT THAT BRADY, the latter disappointing in the Gotham Stakes, and also feature the return of OUTSHINE, who was so impressive in defeat in the Tampa Bay Derby. Look for big improvement out of the son of Malibu Moon, who worked five furlongs in a sharp 1:00 2/5 at Palm Beach Downs. He, along with So Alive, could easily provide Todd Pletcher with his third and fourth Top 12 horse. And don’t forget about two new faces trained by Jason Servis, impressive allowance winner FINAL JEOPARDY and runaway maiden winner GRUMPS LITTLE TOTS. We’ll see if he runs both of them. The whole scenario of the race could depend on whether Bob Baffert returns with the speedy MUCH BETTER. Also, there is JOEVIA and Pletcher could try two turns with OVERDELIVER. These three would likely be in control of the pace, and no one wants to see all three in there more than the connections of Haikal.

The Santa Anita Derby will be highlighted by Game Winner and stablemate Roadster and the return to California of INSTAGRAND, who has been working great since chasing a suicidal pace in the Gotham Stakes in his 3-year-old debut. He gets a rider switch to Flavien Prat. Also returning to California will be EXTRA HOPE, who made a premature move in the Rebel Stakes, but still held on well to be fourth. A horse to keep an eye on is the former Top 12 ranked horse NOLO CONTESTO, who I still believe is a very talented horse who just needs to mature a little. But he could be ready to make his presence felt. And there is San Vicente winner SPARKY VILLE, who will be stretching out to two turns for the first time.

In Japan, DER FLUG captured the Fukuryu Stakes, giving him 40 points, but he is not nominated to the Derby and would have to pay a late nomination fee.

Derby Dozen - March 26, 2019 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Blood-Horse Staff — Tue, 26 Mar 2019 15:48:00 GMT

Omaha Beach Richard Mandella

War Front—Charming, by Seeking the Gold

The more I watch the Rebel Stakes the more impressed I am with his performance. Game Winner appeared to have him measured, but he dug down deep and fought back gamely, and as I mentioned, was two lengths in front shortly after the wire. For a horse who had never faced winners and was coming off a seven-furlong race, that was a huge step forward. He did pair up his Thoro-raph number from his maiden win, but still needs a move forward to put him in Derby-winning territory. Mandella kidded earlier in the year that he was going to hang around Bob Baffert’s barn to pick up some pointers on how to get to the Derby. He used to say when they gave out lessons on how to win the Derby he probably was out that day. Well, so far he’s looked like a scholar and is in a good position to ace the next test in the Arkansas Derby. And then it’s on to the finals for the first time in 16 years. But this year he may have the Derby gods as tutors.

Game Winner Bob Baffert

Candy Ride (ARG)—Indyan Giving, by A.P. Indy

He and Improbable actually received the two fastest Thoro-Graph numbers in the Rebel. He is on the best progression of any of the Derby horses and does not need much of a move forward to win the Derby; he’s pretty much right there already. He was fast as a 2-year-old and he’s faster now. The two questions with him are should he have caught a maiden winner he seemingly had measured and will having only three weeks to the Santa Anita Derby affect him after such a hard race off a layoff? No one has a better line on his horses coming out of a race than Baffert, so if he shows up he’ll be ready to go. The positive is that he doesn’t even have to win again. If he runs the same kind of number he did in the Rebel coming back that quickly he then has four weeks to the Kentucky Derby and would be in good shape to run his peak race. Baffert compares him to Silver Charm, basically in their tenacity and consistency and will to win, and Silver Charm lost his final prep, but used the race to set him up perfectly for the Derby.

Improbable Bob Baffert

City Zip—Rare Event, by A.P. Indy

As good a race as he ran in the Rebel, there is a question with him as well. Despite his wide trip, should he have been caught by a horse whose Thoro-graph and Beyer numbers were not even in the same ballpark as his? When a son of City Zip gets caught at 2-5 going 1 1/16 miles, you have to wonder about distance. The Arkansas Derby will tell us a lot as he gets his chance to avenge his defeat and square off with fellow Californian Omaha Beach. Like Game Winner, his Thoro-Graph number in the Rebel was a career best and puts him right with the champ as the horse on the best progression and fastest number in a stakes. His defeat might be a bit more of a concern than Game Winner’s even though he did not have a good trip, and that is because he is the more brilliant of the two and is more likely to overcome a bad trip on sheer talent and brilliance. You have a tendency to get a little more overconfident on him, feeling he can win from anywhere. So, was he exposed at all? Probably not, but we won’t know that until the Arkansas Derby. He certainly has the ability to bounce back with a monster effort and make everyone forget about the Rebel.

Long Range Toddy Steve Asmussen

Take Charge Indy—Pleasant Song, by Unbridled's Song

It’s not every day you see a horse with a half-length lead going into the first turn, ease back to fifth without fighting the rider at all, bide his time patiently, and then shift to another gear and come flying home like a fresh horse. When you have a horse that adaptable who is improving with every start, you have to believe he is a legitimate Derby horse. If you’re curious how he got his name, he is named after owner Willis Horton’s daughter-in-law’s nephew Todd Rayburn, who is an avid hunter and excellent at long range. His family calls him Toddy. Amazingly, Horton only owns two broodmares – Pleasant Song, the dam of Long Range Toddy, and Take Charge Tressa, a full-sister to Omaha Beach, so it is safe to say that Horton enjoyed both divisions of the Rebel.

Spinoff Todd Pletcher

Hard Spun—Zaftig, by Gone West

This is like picking names out of a grab bag. You can make a case for any of them or find faults in any of them. This is what you call a real mish mash (“jumble, mess, confusion”). So is Spinoff a mish or a mash? It could very well be he is as clear as the nose on your face. I’m not crazy about his having only four career starts going into the Derby or now having to wait six weeks or losing the lead to a recent maiden winner. But I still like this colt moving forward, even more so now. He had an outside post, was wide on both turns, was making only his second start in seven months, and finished five lengths ahead of the third horse. And in his first race back off the layoff he barely raised a sweat winning in a common gallop. But it was at Tampa, which had to give him a pretty decent foundation. And as I mentioned before, he was pulling away from everyone else. I wouldn’t be surprised if his Thoro-Graph number is right there with the winner or even better. If you believe in the third race off a layoff angle, he fits that perfectly. He has the looks, he has the pedigree, he has the right running style, and he has the long, fluid action you like to see. Getting back to that first negative of now having six weeks to the Derby, it is far from ideal, but Pletcher was able to get Revolutioary to come off the Louisiana Derby and finish a fast-closing third in the Kentucky Derby after being 20 lengths back at one point. As I have been saying all along I just like this colt a lot and have faith he will do whatever is asked of him.

Anothertwistafate Blaine Wright

Scat Daddy—Imprecation, by First Defence

Speaking strictly as a Derby horse, I would have preferred to see him run the race he did and finish second than winning wire-to-wire as he did at Golden Gate. I like the way he took back, but he constantly had horses move up on his outside and was unable to get out and launch his bid, allowing Cutting Humor to get the jump on him. But boy was he striding out powerfully at the end. He showed that he has that same fluid action and great extension on synthetic or dirt. But the bottom line is that showing the ability to sit behind horses and then close stamps him as a legitimate Derby contender. But with 30 points and no more preps, he could be right on the borderline of getting in. I don’t take much stock in fractions and final time at Sunland. It is how they do it. And the way he came charging down the stretch, leaving 4-5 Mucho Gusto nearly six lengths behind was all I needed to see. Again, I’m not crazy about having six weeks to the Derby, but in his case it is different, because he is the only horse to have had two 1 1/8-mile races this year, and he’s also been a mile and 1 1/16 miles, so he has built a pretty strong foundation. If it looks like he’s going to be on the outside looking in he has proven he’s resilient enough to handle a pit stop in the Lexington Stakes, where he probably would only need to finish second. Although his broodmare sire was mainly a sprinter, he has more than enough stamina, is inbred to Nijinsky, and his third dam is by Nijinsky, out of a Round Table mare.

By My Standards Bret Calhoun

Goldencents—A Jealous Woman, by Muqtarib

In a year like this it shouldn’t come as a surprise when a horse goes from a maiden victory to a win in the Louisiana Derby. But he told us a lot about him. When the outside path didn’t open for him, he darted to the inside and split horses, then came home in :12 3/5, running one and three-fifths seconds, or eight lengths, faster than the older horses in the New Orleans Handicap. What I found most impressive about his victory, especially for a horse with no stakes experience, is that the fourth, fifth, six, and seventh-place finishers, all closers, lost five lengths from the eighth pole to the wire, as did third-place finisher Sueno. Even the runner-up lost 1 3/4 lengths. My main question with him is whether he will be as effective at 1 1/4 miles. His sire was a sprinter/miler, both his grandsires were sprinters, and there are a number of other speed influences in his female family. The one factor in his favor is that he sure didn’t look like a sprinter or a miler in the Louisiana Derby. But that next furlong is the tough one. This colt has taught me a valuable lesson. In the Feb. 19 Knocking o the Door I wrote: “One non-stakes race of interest was the impressive maiden victory by the Bret Calhoun-trained BY MY STANDARDS, who after a pair of seconds and a third, finally found the winner’s circle at Fair Grounds despite breaking from the 12-post, a bumping incident at the start, and racing wide the whole way. Tracking the favorite Free Speech in fourth, he moved up to challenge and had no trouble drawing away to win by 4 1/4 lengths, covering the 1 1/16 miles in 1:45.04, which was only 45 one-hundredths of a second slower than the Risen Star and faster than the Mineshaft Handicap for older horses. I’m not sure how far this son of Goldencents wants to go, but he sure looked good going 1 1/16 miles.” The lesson I learned is, when handicapping these races, remember what I wrote.

Win Win Win Michael Trombetta

Hat Trick (JPN)—Miss Smarty Pants, by Smarty Jones

I think it’s fair to say I am the only one who has him ranked in the Top 10. He’s back at Fair Hill where he continued his sharp works, breezing a half in a bullet :48 flat, fastest of 14 works at the distance. Even Trombetta is still trying to figure out how far he wants to go. His pedigree is a bit of an enigma and it could go either way. But he sure is talented and ran better in the Tampa Bay Derby than it might look on paper. So I am sticking with him until he proves me wrong about his ability or shows he doesn’t want any part of classic distances. Trombetta has to decide whether to hop up to New York for the Wood Memorial or head down to Keeneland for the Bluegrass Stakes. I just want to see him break sharply and get position and not have to come from so far back. With the speed he has shown in sprints and his “3/4” Thoro-Graph number in the Pasco, it puts him at a distinct disadvantage to have to rally from far back. He has only one more race to establish his running style and hopefully Irad Ortiz knows him a lot better now if he decides to stick with him.

Code of Honor Shug McGaughey

Noble Mission (GB)—Reunited, by Dixie Union

All systems are go for the Florida Derby after the colt breezed a bullet half-mile in :48 2/5, fastest of 12 works at the distance. McGaughey was looking for :49, so this should set him up perfectly. McGaughey said he liked what he saw from a physical standpoint and from the work itself. The main improvement you’d want to see is a better timed move and looking stronger at the end, as he started to get a bit late in the final sixteenth of the Fountain of Youth Stakes and had Bourbon War bearing down on him and just running out of ground. I would love to see him run like he did in the Champagne, which is still the best race he’s run, and as I keep saying, I am a sucker for the Champagne, which, at a one-turn mile, was always the race that decided the 2-year-old championship and prepared a horse best for the Derby trail. I have loved all his recent works and how smooth and professional he’s looked, so there is no reason to doubt he will move forward and run big on Saturday.

Tacitus Bill Mott

Tapit—Close Hatches, by First Defence

If you are going to consider Tacitus among your leading Derby contenders it’s going to have to be based on his performances in the afternoon and not the morning. He’s never been the greatest worker, but his last work was not pretty, as he was running with his head way up in the air, showing no inclination to catch his workmate despite being asked. He finished several lengths behind and remained well behind on the gallop-out. Now before you panic and start contemplating dropping him from your fantasy stable, he is still raw when it comes to talent and maturity, and he no doubt did not like the deep track on this particular morning. But he still worked his half in :48 4/5, which is pretty solid. And he is a Tapit. His Tampa Bay Derby score came a huge surprise to me, as he did not look ready at all for such an assignment, especially after being embarrassed by Hidden Scroll when they worked in company and he had to be hit three times with no result, as Hidden Scroll drew well clear with ease. But like the NFL, sometimes it’s best to go by the game tapes and not the Combines. He obviously is a totally different horse when it is game time and probably has more room for improvement than any of the others.

Bourbon War Mark Hennig

Tapit—My Conquestadory, by Artie Schiller

He breezed a half in :49 4/5, and as usual had his head down into the bit with his neck slightly arched. I loved the way he cornered, but it did take him several strides before he changed leads. Hennig said he has made great progress and that the Fountain of Youth Stakes really woke him up, considering he was never really enthusiastic about training before he ran and seemed bored by it. But once the light came on he’s been a different horse. It all depends what you thought of the Fountain of Youth. He looked terrific in his previous start when he just sliced between two horses at the head of the stretch without flinching. But because of the wicked pace in the Fountain of Youth he was far back early. They did come home slowly, but he was flying and still got his final sixteenth in about :06 1/5. On the negative side, his “4” on Thoro-Graph was a pretty substantial regression from his “1 1/2” in the allowance race. And he also dropped two points on Brisnet. So he needs to bounce back with a big number in the Florida Derby, as do all the Derby contenders.

Cutting Humor Todd Pletcher

First Samurai—Pun, by Pulpit

It has reached the point on the Derby trail where production takes precedence over speculation, as well as securing a spot in the starting 20, and at least for now this colt has produced enough to warrant a Top 12 placing, having won a major prep and finishing a solid second to a top-class colt in Bourbon War. His Southwest Stakes was a total throwout after he got wiped out on the first turn and was forced to race five-wide a good portion of the race. I don’t know if a First Samurai can get a mile and a quarter, and his female family is loaded with speed, but he has earned his way into the Derby, and as a result earned a spot in the Top 12, at least for now. I do like that he was able to rebound off his Southwest debacle, as Pletcher found the perfect spot for him, and he had a perfect trip. Getting first run on Anothertwistafate was very important, as that neck margin got him in the Derby. and anyone in the Derby has to be respected. For the final time, he is up against history trying to go the six weeks from the Louisiana Derby to the Kentucky Derby, but history doesn’t seem to deter anyone anymore, especially after Justify tore up the history books last year. So he gets the final spot, but there is a lot of action to come and a lot of shifting and juggling expected.

KNOCKING ON THE DOOR

For years I have been discussing John Nerud’s impact on the sport, especially through Fappiano and the homebred stallion’s sons and grandsons. If you want an example of Nerud’s and Fappiano’s remarkable impact on this year’s Derby trail, consider that the following Derby contenders have Fappiano in their pedigree: Game Winner, Omaha Beach, Long Range Toddy, War of Will, Hidden Scroll, Tacitus, Bourbon War, Win Win Win, Vekoma, Anothertwistafaste, Cutting Humor, Outshine, Intrepid Heart, Sueno, Signalman, Nolo Contesto, Mind Control, Sparky Ville, Gray Attempt, Alwaysmining, Admire, Soldado, and Come On Gerry

Nerud’s influence can also be found in the pedigrees of Spinoff, through the Nerud owned and bred Cozzene; Mucho Gusto through Dr. Fager’s Hall of Fame sister Ta Wee; Blue rass Stakes hopeful So Alive through Dr. Fager and his son Dr. Blum, and UAE Derby hopeful Plus Que Parfait through the Tartan-owned and bred Codex.

This year may turn out to be Todd Pletcher’s best training job ever on the Derby trail. Normally, Pletcher comes charging out of the gate in January and February and then usually runs out of gas before, in, or shortly after the Kentucky Derby (He still hasn’t won the Derby on a fast track and neither of his two winners ever won another race). But this year, he had zero Derby horses in January and February and has had to play catch-up. He now has been forced to train the way you want your horses to run – Take back early, progress at a steady pace, and use each race as a prep instead of breaking fast and running off the screen with high speed figures and winning by big margins. In short, Pletcher’s horses will not be peaking too soon, as they often do. Because many of his most talented horses had setbacks early, he now is approaching the Derby the right way, with live horses such as SPINOFF, OUTSHINE, CUTTING HUMOR, and SO ALIVE, all of whom should be peaking on Derby Day. He also has a newcomer on the scene, Oaklawn allowance winner LAST JUDGMENT. No one even heard of these horses early in the year and all of them are now legitimate contenders, which is why this may be Pletcher’s best training job ever. He also has the late-developing INTREPID HEART and SOLDADO, both very talented colts who probably should wait for races down the road.

I am going to make a prediction. Could it be the best of the Bafferts actually is ROADSTER and he is just lurking in the background, waiting to leap to the top in the Santa Anita Derby? Don’t dismiss that possibility. I was torn between putting him or Cutting Humor in the Top 12 this week, but had to go with the horse who has already won a stakes and is in the Derby. With Roadster it is pure speculation. But my prediction is that next week, with the Santa Anita Derby looming, he will be in the Top 12 based on that speculation he is going to run huge, although we’ll have to see what happens in the Florida Derby. He has excellent tactical speed and can close, with two triple-digit late pace figures on Brisnet. And he has moved forward every race on Thoro-Graph. After six months off due to a breathing problem that has been corrected he returned with a big effort over Nolo Contesto, drawing off and coming home in :24 1/5 over a deep track, earning a strong Thoro-Graph number. I think this could be Baffert’s secret weapon and I would love to get him in the Top 12 before the Santa Anita Derby because I feel there is a good chance he will be there after the Santa Anita Derby. If there is a negative, we’re back to the four career starts, and he will have only one race over a mile. But, hey, if Justify can do it with three starts why can’t he? I really want to see the rematch with another of my early favorites, Nolo Contesto.

For a while I had Omaha Beach and NOLO CONTESTO both ranked in the Top 12 off maiden wins. Nolo Contesto, who I wrote up very strongly, was dropped after he scratched out of the Robert B. Lewis Stakes and ran instead in a one-mile allowance race, in which he was beaten by Roadster after a less than ideal trip. Well, don’t be surprised to see him back in the Top 12 after the Santa Anita Derby. He has been working well and I liked his latest six-furlong drill in 1:14 in company and the way he picked it up at the end. I believe he is much better than he showed in his last start and would not be surprised to see him finish first or second to secure a spot in the Derby field. The thought of Nolo Contesto and Roadster going up against Game Winner brings very exciting possibilities.

To show how this year’s Derby trail can leave you numb and emotionally drained, I also hated to drop GALILEAN, another who I latched onto early and who could easily make it back on the Top 12 after being there pretty much every week. But those 12 spots get very jammed up and sometimes horses have to drop off even if it’s just temporarily. That doesn’t mean I think any less of him, but he still has to prove himself and earn a spot in the Derby. In other words he needs a first or second wherever he goes next.

The Rebel was his first big test, but between his slow start, rushing up to challenge for the lead, and being under pressure between horses on the backstretch, he never had a chance to relax and get a breather. It was good to see him bounce back a week later with a :47 4/5 work at Los Alamitos. Until he gets a trip that shows off his true talents and shows he can relax and turn in a strong closing kick, he has to remain a question mark.

It will be interesting to see who Jerry Hollendorfer runs in the Santa Anita Derby. In addition to Galilean, he worked INSTAGRAND five furlongs in a bullet :59 2/5 at Los Alamitos, fastest of 12 works at the distance. He should be much tighter after tracking that wicked pace in the Gotham Stakes, in which they blazed a half in :44 2/5. This could be the most intriguing race of the year. So many possibilities and so much to prove by so many. Sadly, Hollendorfer had to bid farewell to GUNMETAL GRAY, who suffered a condylar fracture in a workout and is out for the year.

Looking back at last weekend, the big news obviously was the misadventure at the start by Louisiana Derby favorite WAR OF WILL. He apparently strained something or hit himself shortly after coming out of the gate when his back end gave out and never fired. The good news is that he seemed fine the next couple of mornings and still is on the Derby trail. The bad news is that the race did little for him, he has six weeks to the Derby, and horses simply do not win the Derby after finishing up the track in their previous start. The keys is when he can get back to training and how he trains and how vigorously Mark Casse trains him in order to get him tight and fit for the mile and a quarter. You never like to drop a horse this talented who was ranked at No. 3, but there are too many uncertainties surrounding him.

Another horse who had to be dropped was COUNTRY HOUSE, who ran decent enough in the Louisiana Derby to finish fourth, but after making a strong move on the far turn and looming boldly on the outside turning for home, he came up empty in the stretch and was beaten 6 1/2 lengths. It was disappointing considering the upward spiral he appeared to be on. Perhaps he just needs more time to mature.

As for Sunland Derby favorite MUCHO GUSTO, it just seems as if he doesn’t want to go this far and likely will be a top-class sprinter and miler.

You can’t say HARVEY WALLBANGER isn’t going into the Florida Derby sharp and rarin’ to go following a two-month vacation. He followed up his fast work last week with another eye opener, going his half in a bullet :47 flat, fastest of, get this, 99 works at the distance. Who knows, maybe Harvey is the real deal and he’s ready to bang down the wall that has kept him out of the Top 12. He is bred to run all, and his third dam is by Spectacular Bid, out of a full-sister to Hall of Famer Numbered Account.

MAXIMUM SECURITY disappeared off the worktab after his last victory in a starter optional claimer back on Feb. 20. After a month he finally returned and breezed a half in :52 4/5. Off that one slow breeze he is now headed for the Florida Derby. This horse has had a very bizarre career and I would expect to see a pretty strong work next week if he is to be at all competitive in the Florida Derby. What was unusual about this last work was that he was basically open galloping around the far turn and down the stretch, but didn’t really get motoring until after the wire and was moving along at a strong clip down the back stretch. So I have no idea what the dynamics of that work were supposed to be. He sure will add some intrigue to the Florida Derby.

HIDDEN SCROLL once again worked behind a horse, breezing five furlongs in 1:02 2/5. Much better to see a 1:02 than a :59. We know he has brilliant speed, but sure don’t want to see him use it early in the Florida Derby. In his latest work, he wasn’t allowed to get dirt kicked his face like he was in his previous work. Running with his head low and with a great deal of head movement, he blew by his workmate by two lengths at the wire. He kept going, quickly leaving his workmate, who in about four or five seconds found himself some 20 to 25 lengths behind Hidden Scroll. The track was on the slow side so you can’t really go by time too much anyway. Despite his defeat in the Fountain of Youth, there should be a lot of action on him at the windows. With him, it’s all about the three pre-Derby starts and no races at 2. Can something that had never been done before last year be duplicated the very next year? That is asking a lot. I do think he is the horse to beat in the Florida Derby. It’s the following race that gets tricky.

George Weaver still hasn’t made a decision where he will run VEKOMA next. The Florida Derby, Wood Memorial, and Blue Grass all are under consideration. Not exactly a firm plan on how they want to get to the Derby. He worked five furlongs in company in 1:02 4/5, actually breaking off a couple of lengths in front of his workmate. He seemed comfortable leading the way and wouldn’t let his workmate pass him, finishing about three-quarters of a length in front. Both horses shut it down quickly without any kind of gallop-out. His stride did seem a bit smoother than in the past, but I never saw it head-on. He seems to be filling out and doing well in general and should improve off the Fountain of Youth, his first start off a layoff. Also note that Vekoma is a May 22 foal, so he won’t actually turn 3 until well after the Preakness. It’s no surprise that he is growing and maturing, and those horses can be dangerous.

As if Maximum Security isn’t a strange enough and intriguing enough addition to the Florida Derby field, we also have HOFFA’S UNION running despite having only one career start, a 15 1/4-length laugher at Laurel. The son of Union Rags who was sold after his maiden win, worked a half in :48 4/5. Also working for the Florida Derby was EVERFAST, who went five furlongs in 1:01 4/5 at Gulfstream Park.

One horse who has been training sharply for the Wood Memorial is the hard-knocking MIND CONTROL, who worked a half in :47 3/5 at Belmont Park, second fastest of 30 works at the distance. Another Wood hopeful, NOT THAT BRADY, breezed five furlongs in 1:03 at Aqueduct. Kiaran McLaughlin said Gotham winner HAIKAL is scheduled to work later in the week. The son of Daaher has not worked since his Gotham score on March 9. If he does work later this week that would be nearly three weeks since the Gotham. This is one horse I am anxious to see go two turns for the first time. If he can unleash the same kind of powerful stretch run going two turns as he has going one turn then he will stamp himself as one of the Derby favorites. We’re also still waiting for Withers winner TAX to make the worktab. The son of Arch, who hasn’t run since Feb. 2, last worked on March 16.

One horse whose recent works have been very impressive is SIGNALMAN, who had been ranked high up early in the year, but turned in a disappointing effort in the Fountain of Youth. I didn’t think he was suited for that race at all, especially with the short stretch, but he is stabled at Gulfstream and has been working there all year. Don’t be surprised if he bounces back with a big effort in the Blue Grass Stakes. He ran second in the Breeders’ Futurity over that track last fall. In his most recent work he breezed five furlongs in 1:00 3/5 at Gulfstream Park.

Also working for the Blue Grass was SO ALIVE, who breezed five furlongs in 1:00 4/5 at Palm Beach Downs. He is another with a strong stretch kick who should appreciate a move to Keeneland. Over at Turfway Park, Jeff Ruby Steaks winner SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN worke five furlongs in 1:00 1/5 on the Polytrack.

One horse on whom I was very high after his impressive maiden victory going 1 1/8 miles was MOTAGALLY. He disappeared after that, but has returned to the worktab, breezing a half in :48 2/5. I don’t know if he can be ready for the Derby, but watch out for him in the Belmont Stakes. He’s a big long-striding colt who should love Belmont Park. Staying in the Chad Brown barn, still waiting for STANDARD DEVIATION to work. His last work was March 16. This is a colt with a lot of potential, but he hasn’t run since finishing second to Global Campaign on Feb. 9.

We’ll see if Saturday’s UAE Derby produces any Kentucky Derby horses. Three Americans who could have a say in the outcome are the Doug O’Neill-trained STUBBINS, winner of the off-the-turf Pasadena Stakes who has the speed you look for at Meydan; the Brendon Walsh-trained PLUS QUE PARFAIT, who is looking to regain his form of last fall when he was narrowly beaten by Signalman in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes; and the Peter Miller-trained GRAY MAGICIAN, second in the Miracle Wood Stakes and fourth in the Sham Stakes. One European invader looking to earn his ticket to Louisville is Sheikh Hamdan’s JAHBATH, who has been on a roll on the all-weather tracks, winning the Derby Conditions Stakes at Kempton. We even have a Japanese colt with eyes on the Kentucky Derby, the Pyro colt DERMA LOUVRE.

Of the local horses, many felt that WALKING THUNDER was a star in the making after crushing everything in sight at Meydan, but he was beaten soundly into second by Estihdaaf in the UAE 2,000 Guineas. A return to his earlier form could very well earn him a trip to Louisville. He is a classy-looking son of Violence with beautiful action and could rebound at the longer distance. The horse to beat could actually be a filly. Godolphin’s DIVINE IMAGE a daughter of Scat Daddy, won the UAE Oaks and then knocked off the boys with authority, winning the Al Bastakiya, the second leg of the UAE Triple Crown. A big effort here and she likely will be off to America for the Kentucky Oaks. Another horse worth mentioning who has good tactical speed is MANGUZI, who defeated Estihdaaf in the Al Bastakiya Trial, but could finish no better than third in the Al Bastakiya. No race would be complete without the presence of Aidan O’Brien, and the master of Ballydoyle will send out VAN BEETHOVEN, who was fourth in Ireland’s Kentucky Derby prep, the Patton Stakes, at Dundalk last out. Winner of the group 2 Railway Stakes at the Curragh last year, the son of Scat Daddy was fourth in the group 2 Champagne Stakes at Doncaster before testing out the all-weather track at Dundalk. Also in the race are Swift Rose and Razeena, second and third, respectively, in the UAE Oaks.

Derby Dozen - March 19, 2019 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Blood-Horse Staff — Tue, 19 Mar 2019 15:58:00 GMT

Omaha Beach Richard Mandella

War Front—Charming, by Seeking the Gold

Yes, I’m well aware Game Winner probably should still be No. 1, but I have been enamored with this colt since his second in a maiden race and am willing to take a shot with him as opposed to the logical choice. The facts are he defeated a three-time grade 1 winner and champion in the Rebel Stakes despite never having faced winners, never having been two turns on dirt, never having won on a fast track, and coming off a quarter crack, and he still was able to dig in gamely and hold him off, with Game Winner 8 1/4 lengths ahead of the third horse. You also have to take into consideration the amount of improvement he still has and the progression he’s on, and indicated by his continuously increasing Beyer figures – 62, 78, 80, 83, 90, 96. What I loved was the way Mike Smith was sitting motionless on him at the top of the stretch while Joel Rosario was pushing hard on Game Winner, and Smith never went to the whip in the stretch. When Game Winner came charging up alongside him right before the wire and looked to have him measured, Smith hit him once left-handed and he battled back, despite Smith losing hold of the reins, which were dangling as Smith tried to grab onto anything, including the colt’s mane. Omaha Beach was clearly in front one step past the wire and quickly opened two lengths on the gallop-out. I have been so impressed with everything about this colt -- his class, his stride, his balance – that I had him ranked No. 6 off a maiden sprint score in the slop back on Feb. 5. When he came down with a quarter crack and missed a scheduled allowance race I thought that was the end of his Derby chances, but he bounced back from that has been working lights out since. By missing the allowance race and being redirected to the Rebel, the pressure is now off for him having to finish first or second next time out.

Game Winner Bob Baffert

Candy Ride (ARG)—Indyan Giving, by A.P. Indy

Other than not winning, the Rebel was a perfect prep for the champ, and he is still the horse to beat on the first Saturday in May. This had to be a hard race on him coming off the layoff and I’m just wondering how he would handle coming back in three weeks in the Santa Anita Derby. You have to admire this colt’s determination and desire to win. He was under pressure a long way out and just kept coming. He was relentless the way he went after Omaha Beach through a final sixteenth in :06 flat. Because of him, Omaha Beach, Improbable, and Long Range Toddy, we now have some stability and clarity on the Derby trail, as these two divisions of the Rebel looked to be the strongest and most formful races so far. You also have to remember that he and Improbable had their 3-year-old debuts delayed a week, had to ship to Los Alamitos to work, and then travel all the way to Arkansas instead of training and racing in their own backyard. Game Winner lost the Rebel and his unbeaten record, but there is no doubt the champ is back and as good as ever, maybe even better. I just felt it was time to swim against the tide and go with a fresh face for a change who could be any kind.

Improbable Bob Baffert

City Zip—Rare Event, by A.P. Indy

Like Game Winner he did everything right except win, and other than losing his unbeaten streak, there is no way you couldn’t be thrilled with his performance in his division of the Rebel Stakes. Breaking from the outside post he lost all chance to save ground when Galilean, directly inside him, broke slowly and rushed up on his inside, keeping him out in the four or five path. He remained four-wide the entire race and just got nailed on the wire. I wouldn’t be surprised if he winds up with the best Thoro-Graph figure of all of them because of how much farther he had to travel. If you had him ranked No. 1 before this race, there is no reason to lower him. Remember, these are prep races and he got a lot out of this race, as did Game Winner. But again, when you have only two preps, you have to make sure nothing goes wrong, and the San Felipe cancellation and Santa Anita closing could have proved disastrous for both colts. Yes, City Zip normally would need help from the dam regarding getting the classic distances, and Improbable’s maternal great-grandsire Stravinsky was strictly a sprinter, but the tail-female family as a whole is inundated with stamina. I would still like to see him keep his head a little straighter in the stretch, like he does in his works, but all in all this was a great first step back.

War of Will Mark Casse

War Front—Visions of Clarity (IRE), by Sadler's Wells

He will become the first of the leading contenders to complete his Derby preps when he runs in Saturday’s Louisiana Derby in an attempt to sweep Fair Grounds’ big three preps. But then it’s six weeks to the big race and no horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby straight from the Louisiana Derby. But this colt will have seven races at a mile or longer under him, so the time off might very well do him good. With such a strong foundation and all the stamina in his pedigree top and bottom, I can see him coming back sharp and relatively fresh and sitting on a big race. He showed his sharpness working a half in :47 3/5 and looks ready for another big effort. He has excellent tactical speed and a high cruising speed and just has to make sure he doesn’t get too headstrong. He drew perfectly in post 6 in the field of 11, so he should be able to put himself in good position with very little speed in the race. He would need a really impressive performance to stay ahead of Long Range Toddy, who is breathing down his neck.

Long Range Toddy Steve Asmussen

Take Charge Indy—Pleasant Song, by Unbridled's Song

He’s been knocking on the door against seemingly lesser quality horses, but chalk one up for the home team. He’s won four of his last six starts, had traffic problems in the Southwest Stakes, and he really unleashed a powerful late run after being right up with the pace most of the way, even having a head advantage at one point. What made this result surprising was that his last four Thoro-Graph figures going into the Rebel ranged from 7 1/2 to 8 1/2 with no improvement, and those figures were not even in the same ballpark as Improbable and some of the others. But the more I watch the Rebel the more impressive he looks, especially the acceleration he showed in the stretch after being up with the pace early. When he swung out he looked to have zero chance of catching Improbable. One of his main strengths is that he has the ability to be right up there with the pace and then just settle in stride and let horses pass him as he bides his time before coming on like a fresh horse in the stretch. That is a rare quality. In the Rebel, he let a 27-1 shot go on with no problem, then just sat there kindly as Galilean and then Extra Hope passed him. He still appeared to be in no hurry when Improbable charged by him on the turn. At the head of the stretch, Jon Court steered him off the rail, found a seam on the outside, and he unleashed an impressive turn of foot. He still had three lengths to make up on Improbable but really leveled off and was striding out powerfully in the final furlong, coming home his final sixteenth in :05 4/5 and running through the wire, as they say. The only negative is that had Improbable not had such a wide trip throughout, he probably would have won the race. But that is pure speculation. This was an amazing performance.

Country House Bill Mott

Lookin At Lucky—Quake Lake, by War Chant

I moved him up from last week because he looks to be sitting on a big race in the Louisiana Derby and I have been touting him since his maiden victory. The key point with him is how quickly he can mature into a professional racehorse who is not going to cost himself a victory by running like a drunken sailor in the stretch, as he did in the Risen Star. I’ve only seen him do it that one time so he gets a pass. What I would prefer to focus on in his maiden victory, in which he had to overcome a disastrous start before putting in a devastating run to win going away. I also want to focus on the speculation that had he run a straight course in the stretch in the Risen Star he might very well have run down War of Will. I really believe the talent is there. He just has to catch up to it and put it all together before we get to Churchill Downs. Of the top seven ranked horses, two are by War Front and one is out of a War Front mare. So what is this again about him being a turf sire? Country House is a big strong horse, and you don’t want to get him stopped. Fair Grounds is a track that is forgiving of wide trips and you often see horses charging late down the middle of the track. Horses do have a tendency to get in trouble down on the inside, so with his size and running style, and still being a little immature, it is imperative that he does not take the inside route. Better to lose ground and be second or third than get shut off on the rail. But we’ll see how the race shapes up. Sometimes you can get lucky.

Win Win Win Michael Trombetta

Hat Trick (JPN)—Miss Smarty Pants, by Smarty Jones

After you get past the top 5 it is a total crapshoot, so I am still going to stick with this guy until he proves me wrong. And he’s not going to do that until I see what he does when he breaks sharply and is allowed to put himself in a position where he doesn’t have to make up a ton of ground. I still want to see what he can do racing closer to the pace. It could be he doesn’t want to go a mile and a quarter, but he hasn’t shown any indication of that and there are too many things I like about him not to give him a chance under ideal conditions. But he will have to make his own good luck by breaking sharply for a change and getting into the fray earlier. He is not going to mow horses down in the stretch like a confirmed late closer. Both his grandsires had exceptional cruising speed sitting just off the pace, and that is what I want to see from him. I have too much respect for this horse and his ability to lose faith in him now, and there were enough things to like in his two-turn debut in the Tampa Bay Derby to keep him up this high.

Tacitus Bill Mott

Tapit—Close Hatches, by First Defence

This is the time of year with the big preps coming every week that horses move up, down, on and off the Dozen. I know he moved down several places, but I still feel the Tampa Bay Derby was just the tip of the iceberg. The main reason he dropped is the lack of experience he will have going into the Kentucky Derby. Four career starts is not ideal. Of course he can still win the Derby, becoming only the fourth horse in the last 101 years to win with four or fewer starts, but he still looks to be a work in progress and I’m not sure how he will handle big fields and traffic the way he was running with his head up. Frankly, his Tampa Bay Derby score came as a big surprise considering all he had going against him, but he was able to leap from a pair of “8s” on Thoro-Graph last year to a “3 1/2,” just as Long Range Toddy made a big leap in the Rebel Stakes. Three-year-olds can get good quickly this time of year. The question is can he build off that and keep improving? There is no doubt the talent is there and winning that race was pretty amazing, but I just want to see it one more time and also see how he continues to move forward and mature with experience.

Code of Honor Shug McGaughey

Noble Mission (GB)—Reunited, by Dixie Union

I was very impressed with his most recent work in which he went five furlongs in 1:01 flat. As is his habit, he wanted to go well before the pole and was throwing his head in the air, but once he broke off he quickly dropped his head and leveled off beautifully. He was striding out with good extension while doing it all on his own. We certainly haven’t seen the best of this horse. He seems to be improving in all facets of the game and is on course to be peaking Derby Day. Looking back at his Fountain of Youth, I liked the way he accelerated on the far turn and then eased out. He was getting a bit late in the final furlong, but I’m sure McGaughey has left a lot in the tank. This was a huge rebound effort off his dud in the Mucho Macho Man and he looks to be a different horse now. And you know I’m a sucker for horses who run big in the Champagne and he certainly did that coming off only one six-furlong maiden race. There aren’t many trainers better than McGaughey at getting horses to peak on a particular day.

Galilean Jerry Hollendorfer

Uncle Mo—Fresia, by El Prado (IRE)

The big question with him going into the Rebel Stakes was whether he could improve on his three straight “4 1/2” Thoro-Graph numbers and how he would fare against top-class horses in open company. Unfortunately, he had his head up at the break and got off slowly and then was rushed up into contention. That took just enough starch out of him that he didn’t have the kind of closing punch you wanted to see. He could have settled into a comfortable position just off the leader down the backstretch, but what made matters worse was Mike Smith charging up on his outside with Extra Hope making a big early move. Flavien Prat now had to keep riding him to keep his position and on top of that wound up stuck between horses, making the colt even more on the muscle. So he never got a breather. By the time they reached the quarter pole he had used himself more than you’d want him to, and as a result he could only run evenly in the stretch. But he did run hard and never backed off and was beaten only 2 1/2 lengths. This was his big class test coming off all those Cal-bred races and he acquitted himself admirably all things considered. He has one more prep and we just need to see what he can do with a better trip. He’s been having easy trips against easy competition, so it is hoped this race will toughen him up and he will improve off it. I also don’t think 1 1/16 miles is his best distance and he will appreciate the extra furlongs and not having to use himself for such a long sustained period.

Spinoff Todd Pletcher

Hard Spun—Zaftig, by Gone West

I had to drop someone that didn’t deserve to be dropped because Spinoff is running next weekend in the Louisiana Derby and I just have a feeling he is going to run a huge race despite drawing post 10 of 11. Both he and Country House are live horses if you’re looking to upset War of Will. I put him in the Top 12 off a maiden win at Tampa Bay at the expense of a lot of top-class horses and I’m not going to back off now. That is something I normally would not do, but I like everything about this horse. He won’t have it easy breaking that far out, but the three horses directly inside him have no speed so I can see him sitting just off War of Will who will break from post 6. Again, my one reservation is having him go into the Kentucky Derby off a six-week layoff and with only four career starts, two of them at five and 6 1/2 furlongs. So he doesn’t have a lot of miles under him. I would like to see him face some adversity, deal with traffic, and get a lot out of the race. But the flip side is that he has to finish first or second to be assured of getting in the Derby. If he does get in trouble and finishes a good third, Pletcher may have to do the unthinkable and run him back in three weeks in the Lexington Stakes to try to pick up 20 more points. But we’re getting ahead of ourselves. If he can deal with adversity and traffic and still run first or second, then we’re looking at a serious horse on the first Saturday in May even with the four career starts.

Bourbon War Mark Hennig

Tapit—My Conquestadory, by Artie Schiller

He is another who was dropped several places only because of the mish mash we have this year, resulting in horses jumping all over the place. I still can’t get a grasp of the Fountain of Youth Stakes, and at this point at least, most of those horses didn’t look nearly as good as the top two finishers in each of the Rebel Stakes divisions, mainly because of the fast early fractions and late pace collapse. But he has shown enough promise, is definitely on the improve, and demonstrated enough of a closing kick in the Fountain of Youth to suggest he will be a major player in the Florida Derby. I could easily have put one of a half-dozen horses in this final slot, but the major preps are about to begin, so let’s just see how these horses sort themselves out. He did show me a lot in his allowance win the race before the Fountain of Youth when he put in a strong run on the turn and split horses turning for home. His pedigree is a bit unusual for a Derby horse, being out of an Artie Schiller mare, but he is inbred 3x4 to A.P. Indy, not through his daughters, but through his sons Pulpit and Malibu Moon.

KNOCKING ON THE DOOR

Yes, I realize it was a bold move dropping MUCHO GUSTO from the Top 12, especially considering he had been placed fairly high up some weeks. But things are always temporary and for now it is only for one week. I had to make room for Long Range Toddy and I stubbornly refused to drop Spinoff. Mucho Gusto is running in a race this weekend he really should win and win impressively, unless synthetic superstar ANOTHERTWISTAFATE, who worked six furlongs in 1:14 at Golden Gate, is something special on dirt. Other than the Golden Gate shipper, there is no one in the field he shouldn’t be able to handle rather easily. He drew the rail, but with other speed in the race, he should be able to take back, save ground, and then motor home like he did in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes. So I am not sure what the Sunland Derby is going to prove. Even if he does win impressively, how will he handle the six-week layoff to the Kentucky Derby?

We will know a lot more after we see if he in any way resembles a Kentucky Derby horse and can win again from off the pace, despite drawing the rail. If he does what he is expected to do then it is no problem putting him back in the Top 12 next week. Just consider this a slight detour right now until we can get the road straightened out. He had his final tuneup for the Sunland Derby, working six furlongs in 1:13 3/5 at Santa Anita.

I don’t know if ALWAYSMINING is going to stay in Maryland and point for the Federico Tesio Stakes and Preakness or shift to the Derby trail, but wherever this gelding shows up you better pay attention to him. This horse is a flat-out runner, who has now won five in a row following his 6 3/4-length romp in the Private Terms Stakes at Laurel. He is a confirmed frontrunner who has already beaten Win Win Win, but he relaxes beautifully on the lead and has a very fluid way of moving. You had to love the way he was striding out in the stretch. He has run 11 times, but didn’t get good until turned over to trainer Kelly Rubley, who began stretching him out in distance. By Stay Thirsty, out of an Anees mare, and being inbred to Fappiano and having Dr. Fager in his pedigree times, he should be able to carry his speed a long way, and he sure seems to be improving the farther he goes.

With OMAHA BEACH the new No. 1 ranked horse, here is a back story of interest. After parting ways by mutual agreement with his longtime bloodstock agent Tom McGreevy, Rick Porter decided to attend the 2017 Keeneland September yearling sale with only trainer Larry Jones picking out horses for him.

Jones made up a short list of horses he liked and Porter wound up buying six horses. The one horse Jones really loved, a son of War Front, he did not include on the short list because he knew Porter wouldn’t be interested in a colt by War Front who had a reputation as a grass sire, and who he figured was going to sell for around $1.5 million, which was well beyond what Porter would want to spend. So, although he loved the colt he didn’t mention him to Porter.

As it turned out, the colt for some reason RNA’d for $625,000, well below what Jones thought he would sell for. Porter then received a phone call from Reiley McDonald, owner of Eaton Sales, which consigned the colt. Because Porter had bought Hard Spun from him as a yearling, McDonald called him to let him know that Larry Jones, who trained Hard Spun, told him he thought this colt was the best physical specimen in the sale. Because of that, McDonald felt Porter might be interested in him. Porter contacted Jones to confirm that he said that, and when he did, Porter called McDonald back and offered him $500,000 for the colt, but not a dime more. McDonald agreed, the colt vetted perfectly, and Porter had himself one of the favorites for the Kentucky Derby.

On another matter regarding Omaha Beach, Prat’s decision in the Rebel was not between Omaha Beach and Gunmetal Gray, as insinuated several times; it was between Omaha Beach and Galilean, a decision that was made a while ago after Omaha Beach had suffered a quarter crack and missed his scheduled allowance race. Galilean was already targeting the Rebel, and now Omaha Beach was also headed there as well. Prat, having chosen Galilean, was hoping they would draw in separate divisions so that he could ride Galilean and Omaha Beach, especially after working Omaha Beach six furlongs in 1:10 3/5, but Mandella had named Mike Smith on Omaha Beach.

We have been witnessing a new breed of owner in the sport – young to middle age men, many in the brokerage business and others building up huge billion-dollar companies, who are buying horses for big bucks and building up large stables and partnerships, mostly with big-name trainers. These owners are essential to the growth of the industry. But once in awhile on the Derby trail you find those old school owners and breeders, whose longtime operation, like those of years ago, consist mostly of homebreds. Their main strength is their patience when it comes to their horses, knowing how to accept defeat, and being able to follow their horses from birth to the racetrack and knowing everything there is to know about them. This was the way racing used to be with sportsmen like C.V. Whitney, Alfred Vanderbilt, Ogden Phipps, John Galbreath, John Hay Whitney, George D. Widener, John A. Morris, and William Woodward.

There are few of those old school sportsmen left, but it is refreshing when one or two of them show up on the Derby trail with a live homebred. Like those mentioned above, with exception of Phipps, Galbreath, and Woodward, they have never won the Kentucky Derby and you have to feel the Derby gods will reward them one year, just as they rewarded Paul Mellon, Ogden Mills Phipps, Stuart Janney III, and Frances Genter after so many years in the sport.

This year we have Charlotte Weber of Live Oak Plantation and William S. Farish of Lane’s End Farm, who own and bred Win Win Win and Code of Honor, respectively, And from Europe we have the Wertheimer family, which has been prominent in the sport for 100 years. We can thank them for their contributions, especially to the stallion industry, with names such as Lyphard, Riverman, and Green Dancer. They also have given us two female Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winners in Ivanjica and Gold River, French Derby winners Val de l’Orne and Roi Lear, and the great Goldikova, winner of three consecutive Breeders’ Cup Miles. This year, the Wertheimer brothers, sons of Jacques and grandsons of Pierre, have the highly regarded Spinoff on the Derby trail.

We’ll see if the Derby gods will be smiling down on any of these iconic owners and breeders…for old times’ sake.

One other note on the Rebel Stakes, lost in the big efforts of the leading contenders and the two exciting finishes were the performances of EXTRA HOPE, fourth in the first division, and MARKET KING, third in the second division. Whereas Market King ran a strong race for a 48-1 shot, Extra Hope proved he can be competitive with the best of them, making what appeared to be a premature move down the backstretch to battle for the lead and then hanging tough to finish fourth, beaten only 3 1/2 lengths. He did show speed in his last race in the slop, but he had shown in his six previous starts that he wants to sit about two to four lengths off the lead, and blinkers no doubt have helped in his development. Dick Mandella says he’s not the same horse he was earlier in his career, and he earned a shot to continue on the Derby trail. His owner Samantha Siegel can be put in the same category as Charlotte Weber and the others mentioned above, as she and her family have been class owners and breeders for many years.

With Bob Baffert finally getting his two jets off the ground at Oaklawn Park and Mucho Gusto heading to the Sunland Derby, the sleeper of the group, ROADSTER, breezed five furlongs in an easy 1:02 3/5 for the Santa Anita Derby. We’ll see if any of the California shippers to Oaklawn wheel back in three weeks to run in California’s biggest 3-year-old race, assuming it goes off without a hitch. Right now it looks as if that is where Game Winner is heading, with Improbable returning to Oaklawn Park or the Arkansas Derby. But nothing is set in stone this year.

Although Baffert didn’t win his allowance race at Oaklawn either earlier on the card, he had to be happy with the race DESSMAN ran after getting left badly at the start, racing wide and then making a long sustained run before running out of steam slightly in the stretch, finishing 1 1/2 lengths behind the Todd Pletcher-trained LAST JUDGMENT.

Don’t think I’ve forgotten about one of my earlier top 12 horses, NOLO CONTESTO, a horse I still have not given up on and who should improve big-time with a better trip and more experience. He was beaten by Roadster in an allowance race last out, but looked uncomfortable trapped down on the inside and didn’t exactly burst through horses when an opening appeared turning for home. But he did seem to be gaining some momentum in the closing yards and, despite getting beat 2 1/2 lengths, blew right by Roadster on the gallop out. He recently breezed five furlongs in 1:01 2/5 in company at Santa Anita. It was a good work, but you would like to have seen him do it a bit easier, as he was being pushed to try to beat his workmate, who was going easier of the two. In two of his earlier works, he blew by his workmate each time, but also was being pushed pretty hard.

I mention this because it is a perfect example of how you can’t always go by time or what you see in a work. In those two earlier works, Nolo Contesto broke off about six lengths behind a 3-year-old filly named Encanta who was still a maiden after four starts. In his most recent work, he was right off the flank of a tough and fast 5-year-old gelding named Acker who had won four races in a row, including a 1 1/8-mile allowance race run in 1:47 3/5 in his last start. And in his previous three works he had gone five furlongs in :59 4/5 and 1:00 1/5, and a half in :47 flat. So it seems apparent this work was meant to be tougher and make him work harder in preparation for the Santa Anita Derby, in which he will need to finish first or second to earn a spot in the Kentucky Derby. He also will be nominated for the Wood Memorial and Arkansas Derby as a backup.

The five-furlong bullet work at Santa Anita went to San Vicente winner SPARKY VILLE, who went in 1:00 3/5, fastest of 24 works at the distance. Over at San Luis Rey Downs, Southwest Stakes runnerup, SUENO worked six furlongs in 1:12 2/5 for Saturday’s Louisiana Derby. Trip handicappers will love him in that race after the trip he had in the Southwest, in which he was trapped behind horses turning for home before finally finding an opening and rallying to be second, 1 1/4 lengths ahead of Long Range Toddy. He could be very dangerous in here at a price.

On the Florida Derby front, Bill Mott breezed HIDDEN SCROLL behind a horse, going off slow and coming home fast in an attempt to get him to learn to rate behind horses, something he did not do in the Fountain of Youth, wasting that opportunity. He also kept him directly behind his workmate turning for home to get dirt kicked in his face. He seemed to resent it at first until he was pulled out, and then came home strong. Going off his first quarter in :26, with a pair of eighths in :13, he closed in :24 1/5 to complete the half in :50 1/5 before galloping out a strong five-eighths in 1:02 and change. It’s hard to believe that with only two career starts, he won’t be the most inexperienced horse in the Florida Derby. That dubious honor goes to the newly acquired HOFFA’S UNION, who has run only once in his life, romping by 15 1/4 lengths at Laurel going 1 1/16 miles. The gelded son of Union Rags has since been sold and turned over to Mark Casse.

“If you look at his numbers he stacks up with all those guys,” Casse said. “It’s a tall task and a big jump up in class, but if he can come back and repeat the numbers that he ran in his first start, it puts him right there with the best of them. He was so impressive. He ran faster than older horses. He ran a good Beyer number and ran a good Ragozin number and just was impressive.”

Another horse coming out of the Fountain of Youth, third-place finisher VEKOMA, also was on the work tab, breezing a half in :49 3/5 at Payson Park. Vekoma actually got the fastest Thoro-Graph figure in the Fountain of Youth, despite finishing third, beaten 2 3/4 lengths. One would expect him to improve in the Florida Derby. I just don’t know how far he wants to go.

One horse who has not exactly been on everyone’s lips is 29-1 Holy Bull Stakes winner HARVEY WALLBANGER. The son of Congrats, who has never finished worse that second in five career starts, showed that he is fresh and sharp and ready to go, breezing five furlongs in :59 3/5 at Gulfstream Park in company with Signalman. He has to improve his Thoro-Graph numbers, which are still well behind the top-ranked horses. So we will see just how far he can move forward. He has to improve on his Brisnet figures as well, but did make a significant jump from his maiden victory to the Holy Bull. Does he have another big jump in him?

His trainer, Kenny McPeek, said that SIGNALMAN, a disappointing seventh in the Fountain of Youth, was likely under-trained for his debut and also threw a shoe in the race, and he expects a much improved performance in the Blue Grass Stakes. Signalman next to Harvey Wallbanger looked like David next to Goliath. He actually seemed to be doing it easier and still worked his five furlongs in a bullet :59 2/5, fastest of 54 works at the distance. This really was one of the better works I’ve seen, and I’m just about ready to totally toss the Fountain of Youth, a race and a track that did not fit him at all. When you give a horse only two preps you don’t want to waste the first one by having him just go through the motions. The question is, can he get enough out of the Blue Grass Stakes to be ready for the Kentucky Derby? Don’t throw him out just yet. That was a serious work.

Another horse who has not gotten a lot of ink is Withers Stakes winner TAX, who breezed a half in :49 3/5 at Belmont Park in preparation for the Wood Memorial. INSTAGRAND, a game third in the Gotham Stakes, was back in California, breezing a half in :49 1/5 at Los Alamitos. We’ll see if he stays home for the Santa Anita Derby or returns to New York for the Wood. The former would seem the more likely of the two.

SO ALIVE continued to progress toward the Blue Grass, breezing five furlongs in 1:01 2/5 at Palm Beach Downs. Todd Pletcher’s other top 3-year-olds were in action as well. In addition to Spinoff, FEDERAL CASE worked a bullet half in :48 flat, fastest of 19 works at the distance, CUTTING HUMOR worked a half in :48 4/5 for the Sunland Derby, and SOLDADO, who is trying to rebound after a troubled trip last time out, also breezed his half in :48 4/5. INTREPID HEART, who for some reason was selected to the Future Wager field over Omaha Beach despite having run only once in his life and missing four works, returned to the work tab, breezing a half in :49 2/5.

Between War of Will, Country House, Spinoff, and Sueno, the Louisiana Derby should shake things up pretty good. But there are several other interesting horses entered. If you’re looking for a potential overlay who could close into the exotics and get a piece of it, don’t hold LIMONITE’S fifth-place finish in the Risen Star against him. A fast-closing third in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, he had absolutely nowhere to go the entire length of the stretch as he tried to come through on the inside, which as I mentioned happens often at Fair Grounds. Brian Hernandez had to alter course several times, trying to find any kind of opening, but didn’t until it was way too late. He still managed to finish a respectable fifth. Although he has post 3, and another deep closer, ROILAND, has the rail, you can expect their riders to find an outside path and keep away from that precarious inside route. Another closer, HOG CREEK HUSTLE, drew far outside in post 11. A new face to watch is BY MY STANDARDS, an improving son of Goldencents who was impressive breaking his maiden by 4 1/4 lengths at Fair Grounds Feb. 16.

Derby Dozen - March 12, 2019 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Blood-Horse Staff — Tue, 12 Mar 2019 15:50:00 GMT

Game Winner Bob Baffert

Candy Ride (ARG)—Indyan Giving, by A.P. Indy

Baffert’s big two are living on the edge. When you have athletes primed and ready to compete in their own backyard and they don’t, then have to ship to another track to work and wait a week and ship cross-country, it usually disrupts the entire routine. They still should be OK because of their raw talent, but it is still a tougher road. Game Winner worked again with Dr. Dorr, going five furlongs in :59 4/5 and going wide on both turns. His last work had him primed for his debut and I’m sure Baffert didn’t want him going too fast. He did stick his head in front at the wire without any urging, as if he knew where the finish was, and then galloped out about a dozen lengths ahead of Dr. Dorr. Once again, he’s not as smooth as Improbable, but does it his way and now he doesn’t have to face Improbable first time out. I also loved his gallop at Los Alamitos the day before. It was a good three-minute gallop and he was picking it up pretty good and kept getting stronger.

Improbable Bob Baffert

City Zip—Rare Event, by A.P. Indy

Los Alamitos or Santa Anita, it doesn’t matter, his five-furlong work in :59 1/5 was yet another sensational move, again flicking his ears and striding out beautifully, and he had the rider’s feet in the dashboard on the backstretch trying to pull him up. As I keep saying, his works are a thing of beauty to watch. Judging by works alone he probably should be No. 1, but it’s kind of late to switch them now. It’s time to show it in the afternoon. The only problem is that this last work should have been the San Felipe and he’ll have to keep that razor’s edge for another week. He’s already shipped to Churchill Downs after one six-furlong maiden race and blew his field away going a mile in the Street Sense Stakes, so shipping should not be a problem. To show how important it is to get used to a new track, in his gallop at Los Alamitos the day before he spent the entire stretch run with his head cocked to the outside checking out his new surroundings. That wasn’t the case the next day when he had his mind on business. He’s already been here, romping in the Los Alamitos Futurity. The Rebel will be his fourth start and fourth different track.

War of Will Mark Casse

War Front—Visions of Clarity (IRE), by Sadler's Wells

So far, he is the only consistently fast horse on the Derby trail. His Thoro-Graph figures improved with every start last year, and he made a fairly big jump winning the LeComte Stakes to register one of the fastest figures of any horse this year. But despite the jump and a potential “bounce,” he paired up that figure in the Risen Star, the only horse to do so this year. He has now won three in a row and is undefeated on dirt. As I have stated, I’m not a big fan of the timing of the Fair Grounds series of preps, with the six-week gap from the Louisiana Derby to the Kentucky Derby, but if he can run a third straight big number and even improve on his last two, perhaps the six weeks will benefit him. From a visual standpoint, he is a striking individual, very professional, puts his opponents away at the head of the stretch, and hasn’t shown any flaws. And his pedigree is very strong, being inbred to stamina influence Forli and his dam being inbred to the excellent producer Lalun through her sons Bold Reason and Never Bend. If you follow the Brisnet figures he does need to get faster, so that contradicts the Thoro-Graph figures, which takes into consideration more variables than Brisnet or Beyer.

Tacitus Bill Mott

Tapit—Close Hatches, by First Defence

Going into the Tampa Bay Derby he was the second-slowest horse in the field on Thoro-Graph and Beyer, hadn’t run in four months since breaking his maiden by a neck in slow time, had only two career starts, was breaking from post 10, and was made to look slow by Hidden Scroll, who toyed with him in their works. Yet he wins like a seasoned pro in stakes-record time. Go figure. I’m not crazy about any race where the first seven finishers are within 4 1/4 lengths of each other and the horse setting very fast fractions is still right there at the sixteenth pole and only gets beat three lengths. But I have no idea where Tacitus’ performance came from, and it was as if he won the race despite still being a baby, running with his head a bit high, and has a ton of improvement still left in him. But the actual race he ran was very professional, especially the way he split horses in the stretch, using his big long stride to power home. This was like Mott unveiling some powerful secret weapon that isn’t even perfected yet. So we could be seeing bigger and better things from him. One historical note: he will be trying to win the Derby off four lifetime starts, and in the past 101 years, only three horses have done it having four races or fewer, and two of them, Justify and Big Brown, were freakishly talented and didn’t come along in the strongest of crops. As for his pedigree, his dam earned $2.7 million, winning five grade 1 stakes and finishing second in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. His broodmare sire was a top-class sprinter who was out of a top-class sprinter. But also consider he is inbred to two Triple Crown winners and also to Kentucky Derby winner Unbridled. All in all a fascinating colt.

Win Win Win Michael Trombetta

Hat Trick (JPN)—Miss Smarty Pants, by Smarty Jones

Call me stubborn, but I have not lost faith in this colt one bit. The Tampa Bay Derby was his first two-turn race, he got squeezed back at the start, raced wide the whole way, running almost 30 feet farther than the winner on Trakus, ran his second and third quarters in a rapid :23 1/5 and :22 4/5, and still was able to find another gear in the final yards, surging to get third. We still don’t know what his best running style is, but when you run your second and third quarters in :46 flat and have 11 lengths to make up and you’re still running strongly at the end, going your final sixteenth in :06 1/5, there definitely is hope for the future. Remember, this horse had a ton of early speed going 5 1/2 furlongs in his first two career starts, then came from far back in his next two starts only after breaking slowly, which he did again in the Tampa Derby. I really would love to see what he can do and where he can place himself with a clean break. He has natural speed and I believe he would prefer being just a few lengths back and use that speed tactically instead of having to turn in long sustained runs from far back. Basically what I would like to see is him employing the same running style as his two grandsires, Sunday Silence and Smarty Jones. Both were deadly with their tactical speed. I hope Irad Ortiz learned something about him and sticks with him.

Code of Honor Shug McGaughey

Noble Mission (GB)—Reunited, by Dixie Union

He has plusses and minuses as a potential leading Derby candidate. His Thoro-Graph and Brisnet figures in the Fountain of Youth were not particularly fast and on both he duplicated his figure from the Champagne Stakes. On the positive side, he did leave himself with room for improvement and in this crop he doesn’t need a big jump next time to put him right there. Although many consider him a horse who will relish the mile and a quarter because of his sire’s family, it must be noted that his half-brother Big League was a sprinter, his dam was a pure sprinter, his second dam was a pure sprinter who equaled a course record at five furlongs, and his second dam’s sire was a stakes-winning sprinter. Code of Honor’s third dam is by the very fast Bold Forbes, a rare sprinter who could carry his speed long distances, out of the stakes-winning sprinter Faneuil Hall, who set a track record at 5 1/2 furlongs and is by the pure sprinter Bolinas Boy. So, pedigree-wise and speed figure-wise, he is a bit of an enigma. He runs like a horse who wants to go on and will improve, but he did come home very slow in the Fountain of Youth, so, again, we’ll have to wait to see what direction he’s heading. I still haven’t gotten a grasp on him yet. If he does have the stamina, nobody better to bring it out than McGaughey, who will have him peaking on Derby Day, as he did with Orb in 2013.

Bourbon War Mark Hennig

Tapit—My Conquestadory, by Artie Schiller

I thought his Thoro-Graph figure in the Fountain of Youth would be faster than the winner’s, but not only was it a little slower, it was a significant step backward from his previous race. Perhaps he merely “bounced” off his big jump last time and will move forward next time. He also regressed slightly on his Brisnet figure. These are merely handicapping tools and you can’t knock his race from the way he closed, but his Brisnet late pace figure was 11 points slower than his allowance race. He did, however, run faster early despite being much farther back. So in short, from his speed figures I really don’t know what to make of him, just as I don’t know what to make of his pedigree. Again, we have to wait until his next race to see just how accurate the eye test has been compared to the fluctuation of his speed figures. Everyone is basing their opinion of him on his big closing move in the Fountain of Youth, but I believe the race to look at was his previous race when he was right there at the top of the stretch and split horses without even flinching.

Mucho Gusto Bob Baffert

Mucho Macho Man—Itsagiantcauseway, by Giant's Causeway (IRE)

Well, you can’t say he’s not sharp and raring to go. He has sort of gotten lost in all the chaos surrounding Game Winner and Improbable, but he is sitting on a big effort after working five furlongs in :57 4/5 at Los Alamitos. Baffert told XBTV not to pay attention to the times. He said he thought the poles were off and the track was lightning fast and the horses were just bouncing over it. He seemed to be on his way to the Rebel, but is now altering course and headed to the Sunland Derby. He really hasn’t been tested other than having Improbable run right by him in the Los Alamitos Futurity. The Robert. B. Lewis Stakes was nothing more than a workout in the slop in a five-horse field. I can see him romping in the Sunland Derby considering there won’t be too much left from Southern California to go against him other than perhaps Nolo Contesto or Sueno. But I have no idea what their plans are. Now that we know he can win from off the pace and do it eased up, there really is no telling how good he is or what he is capable of. Distance doesn’t look to be a problem, so if he wins easily at Sunland he would be an enticing mystery horse at Churchill Downs. He could be another Firing Line who romped by 14 1/4 lengths in the Sunland Derby coming from the Robert B. Lewis Stakes and then gave American Pharoah all he could handle in the Kentucky Derby.

Galilean Jerry Hollendorfer

Uncle Mo—Fresia, by El Prado (IRE)

He worked a half at Los Alamitos in a bullet :48 2/5, out in a strong 1:01 under Flavien Prat, who gave him a long run to the pole. He wasn’t thrilled with that, tossing his head around wanting to go. Prat had to pull hard on the reins to keep him from breaking off too early. When he finally let him go, he leveled off and was smooth as silk. He does run with his head a bit high, but has that long powerful stride. He was moving so strongly past the wire he took the turn wide and kept going a long way on the gallop-out. He and Omaha Beach looked as if they had found a good spot in the Rebel to accumulate points until the unscheduled invasion of their fellow Santa Anita horses. Now they are going to have to run the race of their lives to pick up points regardless of which division they draw into. Game Winner or Improbable…pick your poison. Prat had his choice between Galilean and Omaha Beach and chose Galilean, who is such a physically imposing horse. At the time, Omaha Beach was returning from a quarter crack, so he was a little more iffy. Now with the race being split, Prat could wind up on both horses, as Mandella will wait for the draw before deciding on Prat, who knows the horse well, or Mike Smith. Even if Galilean and Omaha Beach draw in the same division, Prat will ride either Extra Hope for Mandella or Gunmetal Gray for Hollendorfer. Both those horses cannot be in the same division as Galilean and Omaha Beach because of common interests. Did you get all that? The bottom line is that this will be a huge test for both horses.

Omaha Beach Richard Mandella

War Front—Charming, by Seeking the Gold

He turned in a spectacular six-furlong work in 1:10 3/5, but it was the way he did it more than the time. Breaking three to four lengths behind his workmate, he took off on his own with no urging at all from Prat and was on even terms in a matter of a few strides. With Prat virtually motionless down the stretch he cruised past his workmate and was far in front galloping out. That was as good a work as you’ll see. You can read the comments above to see what Omaha Beach’s options are in the Rebel Stakes, regarding his jockey. If Omaha Beach and Galilean draw in different divisions it could be a dream scenario for Prat. It was a tough decision who to ride, and he would love nothing more than to be aboard both horses. Mandella’s excitement over Omaha Beach has rubbed off on owner Rick Porter, and when Mandella gets this excited over a horse you better pay attention. I have loved this horse since his second to Nolo Contesto in a maiden race. He just had a look of class about him, and he did finish eight lengths ahead of the third horse in excellent time for the mile. Although he is ranked just below Galilean I consider them pretty much equal. Omaha Beach appears to be quicker and is improving at a rapid rate, while Galilean has three stakes (albeit for Cal-breds) under his belt and looks like a man among boys. Both could be special, but, boy, has this race turned into trial by fire.

Country House Bill Mott

Lookin At Lucky—Quake Lake, by War Chant

I have no idea where he even stands now in his own barn. I do like the fact that we haven’t seen anywhere near his best as he still has a few minor things to iron out. He certainly has to keep a straighter course than he did in the Risen Star Stakes. I only moved him down because Galilean and Omaha Beach are running this weekend. Then it’s his turn the following week in the Louisiana Derby. As I said with War of Will, I’m not crazy about that six-week layoff to the Kentucky Derby, but Mott is as good as they come getting a horse ready after some time off. He breezed five furlongs in 1:02 2/5, which actually was the fastest of five works at the distance over the deep Payson Park surface. The talent is there, and I can definitely see him upsetting War of Will if he gets a solid pace. But even if he’s flying again at the finish and comes up short, that is still good enough to get him in the Derby, and then Mott would have a lot of time to work with him and let him mature. Like Tacitus, he could be peaking on Derby Day. Could Mott have three horses in the Derby?

Spinoff Todd Pletcher

Hard Spun—Zaftig, by Gone West

I could have easily dropped him after one week to make room for his stablemate Outshine, who ran a terrific race in the Tampa Bay Derby, or Mind Control or Haikal. But I remain committed to this horse and he is going to have to prove me wrong. It was good to see him turn in a sharp work, breezing five furlongs in 1:00 4/5 in company. He broke off a half-length ahead of the highly regarded Federal Case, who was on his outside. I like the way he had his head down and was reaching out, and the way he cornered and switched leads turning for home. Down the stretch, he seemed to be going easier than Federal Case, yet finished a head in front. He was still going easier on the gallop-out, but opened up a couple of lengths on Federal Case, who is a darn good horse in his own right. Spinoff’s Brisnet figures are not quite up there yet, but they have improved with every start, from an 82 to 89 to 93. And as I said last week, his Thoro-Graph figure of “4,” a jump of 6 1/4 points from his last start back in August, puts him within striking distance of the leading contenders. I would love to see him have two more starts, not being a fan of four lifetime starts before the Derby and with him still being a bit green, but the timing of the Florida Derby looks right and Pletcher has made a habit of winning that race with lightly raced horses. Yes, he is a gamble at this point, but the Derby trail needs a fresh face and there is a lot about him to like.

KNOCKING ON THE DOOR

The Derby trail this year feels more like the yellow brick road, and I’m waiting each week to see what nasty little surprises the wicked witch of Kentucky has in store. So far, the second, third, and fourth-place finishers of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, the first three finishers of the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, the first two finishers of the Breeders’ Futurity, and the winner of the Champagne stakes all have been exposed to the poisoned poppies and have fallen asleep. So, until the good witch Glinda arrives and wakes everybody up we will just have to be patient and hope the (split?) Rebel Stakes, with its invasion of Southern California horses, clears up the muddled picture and provides us with Derby favorites we can get excited over.

Looking at the four fastest speed figures this year on Brisnet, one came in a sprint, one was by a former claimer, one was by a first-time starter, and one was on a synthetic track. The fastest figure last year and still the fastest this year was by a horse who still hasn’t even run as a 3-year-old. Not even the scarecrow with his new brain can figure this out.

The Tampa Bay Derby and the Gotham Stakes had one major factor in common and it was that common denominator that prevented me from putting anyone other than the Tampa Bay Derby winner in the Top 12. In both races, one horse went out there winging on the lead, setting blistering fractions (in the Gotham) and very fast fractions (in the Tampa Derby), setting it up for the closers, yet both horses were beaten only 1 1/2 lengths and three lengths, respectively. In the Gotham, the first four finishers were separated by only 1 1/2 lengths and in the Tampa Derby, the first seven horses were separated by only 4 1/4 lengths. So, the bottom line is, there is still a question of which horses from the Gotham want to go two turns, and whether or not to have three horses from the Tampa Bay Derby in the Top 12.

I do believe Outshine and Mind Control ran races worthy of a Top 12 placing and I feel both have the pedigrees to go longer. And you can’t deny the fact that Haikal has some motor in that final furlong. But with the Derby picture in such a mess I thought it best to keep them knocking on the door until we see what happens in the wild Rebel Stakes stampede next Saturday. With so much Top 12 activity I can certainly see OUTSHINE joining his stablemate in what could be a big late push from the Pletcher barn. Outshine was the one closest to the fast pace and quickly closed in for the kill, looking like a winner turning for home. But he had trouble putting the pace-setting ZENDEN away before finally asserting himself inside the final sixteenth, only to give way to Tacitus. It was a good effort, but I need to see a little more.

As I said, there were just too many horses within four lengths of the winner at the wire. To demonstrate what a late pace setup this was, 46-1 shot SIR WINSTON, the lesser half of the Mark Casse pair, closed from 15 lengths back nearing the quarter pole to be beaten four lengths, while finishing fifth. The huge disappointment was the 7-2 second choice DREAM MAKER, who never ran an inch after a rough start. Either I was dead-wrong about this horse or something happened to him in the race.

I have to mention yet another gutsy effort by MIND CONTROL in the Gotham. This colt just does not like horses passing him, and he once again dug in when challenged and repelled all attacks, but never saw Haikal flying down the middle of the track. Although his only poor effort came in his only two-turn race in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, he deserves another chance to prove himself going longer, considering he has 10 classic winners, three Travers winners, and seven Hall of Famers in his first five generations. This was his first time rallying from far off the pace and I believe he will be even tougher in the Wood Memorial, where the pace likely will be much slower and he can use his tactical speed to better advantage. Greg Sacco has done a good job in the mornings teaching him how to rate behind his horses. I’d like to see what he can do rallying on the outside for a change.

As for HAIKAL and INSTAGRAND, they still have to prove they will be as effective going two turns. With a :26 2/5 closing quarter in the Gotham, it was set up for the only deep closer in the field. Haikal’s running style normally is indicative of a one-turn closer, and he does look like a horse who is heavily dependent on pace. But he deserves a chance to show he can duplicate that big stretch run going two turns. However, I want to see it first, as his sire was a grade1-winning miler, his half-brother Takaful, by Bernardini, was a grade 1-winning sprinter. His second dam was a stakes-placed miler. His third dam was a group 1-winning miler in Europe. And his fourth dam was a group 1-placed miler in Europe. So he will have a lot to prove in the Wood Memorial as far as his ability to win top-class races going two turns. If he is flying at the end of that race, even if he doesn’t win, then he is a legitimate Derby contender. Remember, his paternal grandsire is Awesome Again and his two maternal great-grandsires, Forty Niner and Seeking the Gold, were bitter rivals in 1988, finishing noses apart in the Haskell and Travers. Both colts are by Mr. Prospector and grew up together at Claiborne Farm.

Instagrand obviously needed this race. It’s not easy bringing a horse back off a seven-month layoff in a hotly contested flat mile chasing a brutal pace. So he also deserves another chance. So many horses in the Gotham desperately need a two-turn race and they will only have one before the Kentucky Derby, which is not ideal. That’s not a lot of miles under them to go a mile and a quarter. The big question with Instagrand is whether he not only is effective going two turns, but whether he will have enough bottom and experience to handle the Kentucky Derby. And you can read above the record of horses with four career starts or fewer going in the Derby.

At Turfway Park,SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN made it two-for-two on Polytrack with a 3 1/4-length victory in the Jeff Ruby Steaks, following up his equally impressive score in the John Battaglia Memorial. The New York-bred son of Big Brown is a proven top-class grass horse with three graded stakes placings, including a close third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. His only dirt appearance came in his career debut in the slop at Saratoga, in which he finished up the track. We don't know if it was the dirt or the slop or just being his first race. We'll see where trainer Mike Maker goes next with him. In the Rushaway Stakes on the undercard ONTHEWAYTONEVRLAND, coming off two grass sprints, drew off to a 3 1/2-length victory for Wesley Ward.

Looking at the Fountain of Youth again and the Florida horses in general, and what Tacitus did in the Tampa Derby, I am certainly not counting HIDDEN SCROLL out in the Florida Derby. As much as I have concerns about him making only his third career start, if he can rate kindly behind horses with another rider aboard, he could win that race. However, be aware that he took a big step backward on Thoro-Graph in the Fountain of Youth, dropping from a “negative-2” in his much heralded debut to a “4 1/2.” That is quite a bounce. If he can get anywhere near that first race figure he will take a lot of beating. But it is just another of the many questions that need answering this year.

Juddmonte Farms, which finished second in the race with Aptitude and Empire Maker, has been looking to make a splash on the Derby trail since Bobby Frankel's death. They came up with a superstar in Arrogate but he was a little late for the party. Now they have a dynamic duo that have but five starts between them, so they are cutting it pretty close.

Juddmonte manager Garrett O'Rourke remembers Hidden Scroll and Tacitus well.

“Both colts were always lovely lookers, both big and handsome,” he said. “Obviously Tacitus garnered more attention as he had the 'stallions pedigree,' but Hidden Scroll had a lot of character added to his good looks, and in appearance and behavior he reminds a lot of Empire Maker though he obviously has Hard Spun speed. You don’t always get the desired blend of sire and dam/damsire in equal parts but this one came out as ordered!

“Tacitus always had that beautiful stride he displayed on Saturday, but Hidden Scroll could have run last fall at Keeneland but cut a hind leg in the Churchill Downs shedrow and came back to the farm briefly to heal and went to Payson Park from there. At least he got some Churchill Downs experience.

“And both colts have Bobby Frankel-trained damsires - he’s still working for us!”

The Derby Conditions Stakes at Kempton in England could have a bearing on the Kentucky Derby picture, as the English-bred JAHBATH, owned by Sheikh Mohammed, scored his fourth consecutive victory on the all-weather surface, winning by two lengths and earning a trip a to Dubai for the UAE Derby. The son of Mukhadrim is bred mostly for the grass, but his sire is out of a mare by Preakness winner and Kentucky Derby third-place finisher Timber Country and his second dam is by the 2-year-old champion Lord Avie, winner of the Florida Derby, Champagne, Cowdin, and Young America Stakes.

We’ll see what Aidan O’Brien does with WESTERN AUSTRALIA after his second-place finish in the listed Patton Stakes at Dundalk in Ireland. Although bred for the grass, the son of Australia handled the all-weather just fine, beaten only a half-length by PLAYA DEL PUENTE, who has been pointing for the Hong Kong Derby. Third-place finisher NUMERIAN, trained by Joseph O’Brien, has now finished first twice, second, and third in his last four starts at Dundalk, but he also is bred for the grass.

The Dubai Racing Club has the right idea scheduling the UAE Oaks much earlier than the UAE Derby and giving the Oaks winner the opportunity of running in the much richer Derby with the option of pointing for the Kentucky Derby or Kentucky Oaks. As it turned out, the UAE Oaks winner DIVINE IMAGE came back in the Al Bastikaya, the middle leg of the UAE Triple Crown, and demolished the boys by 7 1/4 lengths, with the big horse, ESTIDAAF, finishing far up the track. The daughter of Scat Daddy could run back in the UAE Derby, where she would be one of the favorites, but her connections are strongly considering heading for the Kentucky Oaks.

Here is the question of the week. What horse earned the fastest Thoro-Graph figure in last week’s Fountain of Youth Stakes? The answer is the third-place finisher VEKOMA, who had the fastest Thoro-Graph figure of any 2-year-old last year, with a “zero” in the Nashua Stakes. Despite his flawed action and very late lead change, he no doubt is a talented horse and obviously needed the Fountain of Youth after a four-month layoff. But it also must be noted that his Brisnet figure was several points slower than the first two finishers and his late pace figures have not been strong. He may not be pretty doing it, but he runs hard and he runs fast. Just thought I’d throw all that in and make things even more complicated for you.

Robert LaPenta’s SO ALIVE, named after the owner’s battle last year with Legionnaire’s Disease that almost killed him, has now turned in two excellent works after being absent from the work tab for three weeks. The son of Super Saver worked five furlongs in a sharp 1:00 3/5. The half-brother to Wood Memorial winner Vino Rosso is coming off a well-beaten third to Well Defined in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, but managed to get the show spot by rallying from 15 lengths back following a horrendous start. He showed improvement and good tactical speed in an allowance victory at Tampa Bay Downs on Jan. 6 with the addition of blinkers and will use the Blue Grass Stakes to try to earn his spot in the Kentucky Derby. In a bit of irony, it was Super Saver who denied LaPenta a Kentucky Derby victory when he defeated the unlucky Ice Box in the 2010 Run for the Roses. Most people believe Ice Box would have won that Derby had he not been stopped cold, nearly clipping heels, while making a winning move on the rail. He had to dramatically alter course to the far outside and was flying at the finish to be second. So, you can say the Derby gods owe LaPenta one, especially after knocking Catholic Boy off the Derby trail last year when the colt bled badly in the Florida Derby and having his Blue Grass winner The Cliff’s Edge throw two shoes on the sloppy sealed track in the 2004 Derby.

Earlier in the year, Chad Brown had four possibilities for the Kentucky Derby, but lost NETWORK EFFECT to injury. Impressive 1 1/8-mile maiden winner MOTAGALLY has been missing from the worktab for quite a while, and last year’s Champagne winner COMPLEXITY got a very late start and dropped off the worktab after two three-furlong breezes. That leaves him with STANDARD DEVIATION, who is kind of interesting and shouldn’t be forgotten. This weekend is a month since his second-place finish to Global Campaign in a 1 1/16-mile allowance race, so the timing of the Tampa Bay Derby looked right, but he wasn’t entered. Efforts to contact Brown by text proved fruitless, so we’ll just keep an eye on the entries. He could be on course for the Louisiana Derby. He should improve as the distances get longer and did run a big race in last year’s Breeders’ Futurity, so he’s been tested for class and has a lot of bottom under him.

Catching up from last week, STUBBINS, who had been very consistent sprinting on the grass at Santa Anita, stretched out to a mile in the off-the-turf Pasadena Stakes and appeared to relish the slop, drawing off to an eight-length romp in 1:36 flat. Bred mostly for the grass on his female side, he is by dirt horse Morning Line, who is by Tiznow, out of the A.P. Indy mare November Snow, winner of the Alabama and Test Stakes.

No one seems to be talking about DESSMAN much anymore since he was placed on the vet’s list. Whatever that was all about, he did work six furlongs in a snappy 1:11 2/5 at Los Alamitos on Sunday. There aren’t many spots open for him and his stablemate ROADSTER that Bob Baffert hasn’t already filled. But these are two very live horses and we’ll just have to see what Baffert has in store for them.

The three other Santa Anita-based horses who have been redirected to the Rebel Stakes all had excellent works. GUNMETAL GRAY has been looking so good in his works, the way he is striding out, that I can see him flying at the end of the Rebel. He is really looking good, as evidenced by his latest gem, a six-furlong work in 1:12 3/5 at Los Alamitos, in which he pulled away from his workmate. Also at Los Al, EXTRA HOPE, who is really coming around for Dick Mandella and looked terrific in his last start, drilled six furlongs in a bullet 1:12 flat. At San Luis Rey Downs, EASY SHOT, third in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, worked six furlongs in 1:12 3/5. So, Santa Anita’s Magnificent Seven who are headed for the Rebel all look sharp and ready to go.

New York-bred FROSTED ICE, who looked sensational against state-breds in his last two starts, including a dominating 6 1/4-length victory in the seven-furlong Bertram Bongard Stakes, worked a half in :48 3/5 at Oaklawn Park for a possible start in the Rebel Stakes. Also at Oaklawn, which is trying to get 20 horses to enter for the Rebel and the privilege of running against Game Winner or Improbable and the other Santa Anita horses, the improving COMEDIAN breezed a half in :49 3/5, LAUGHING FOX, a horse that I like a lot and touted last week, breezed his half in :51, and JERSEY AGENDA, who is better than he has shown, breezed a half in :49 1/5. LONG RANGE TODDY, second in the Smarty Jones Stakes and third in the Southwest, had an easy half-mile breeze in :53 under jockey Jon Court. He will be one of several horses trained by Steve Asmussen in the Rebel.

We haven’t heard a lot from Withers Stakes winner TAX lately, as he awaits the Wood Memorial. But the son of Arch remains sharp, working five furlongs in :59 3/5 at Belmont Park. One of the big surprises this past Saturday was the last-place finish by NOT THAT BRADY in the Gotham Stakes. The New York-bred son of Big Brown, who finished a gutsy second to Tax in the Withers Stakes, stopped abruptly and was virtually eased in the stretch. We have to believe he was in some sort of distress and hope he’s OK. He did suffer a quarter crack in a workout in February, but has worked since. Also distanced in the Gotham was last year’s Breeders’ Futurity winner KNICKS GO, whose form has fallen apart since his second-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. I have to believe something is not right with him either. Horses just don’t go from being that good to that bad without a reason.

I’m not sure if ANOTHERTWISTAFATE, who breezed five furlongs in 1:01 at Golden Gate, will head to the dirt in the Sunland Derby or wait to the Santa Anita Derby, but he is one of the more intriguing horses on the Derby trail after his stunning victory in the El Camino Real Derby. He is a beautiful mover with a huge stride and if he takes to the dirt like he has the Tapeta surface he could make things very interesting and might provide a tough opponent for Mucho Gusto if he runs at Sunland. The son of Scat Daddy has won his three starts at Golden Gate by a total of 16 lengths, but each one has been on the front end the whole way.

With the Louisiana Derby looming, we had several good works at Fair Grounds, highlighted by LIMONITE’S six furlongs in 1:12 3/5. BANKIT also worked well, going five furlongs in 1:00 2/5. NITROUS worked five furlongs in 1:01 1/5 and could be headed to the Sunland Derby. Also, CHASE THE GHOST had another strong work, breezing a half in :47 4/5, and GUN IT went five furlongs in a sharp 1:00 1/5.

For all the MAXIMUM SECURITY fans, he still has not worked since his last race 19 days ago. San Vicente winner SPARKY VILLE breezed five furlongs in 1:04 4/5 at Los Alamitos.

Although he probably is more of a Preakness candidate, one horse to watch is the oddly named HOFFA’S UNION, who won his career debut at Laurel by 15 1/2 lengths going 1 1/16 miles. The gelding is a son of Union Rags, out of a Malibu Moon mare.

Derby Dozen - March 5, 2019 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Blood-Horse Staff — Tue, 05 Mar 2019 17:10:00 GMT

Game Winner Bob Baffert

Candy Ride (ARG)—Indyan Giving, by A.P. Indy

Here we go, finally. Baffert vs. Baffert. Undefeated vs. undefeated. Derby favorite vs. Derby favorite. Something’s gotta give. Baffert surprised a lot of people by his plans to run Game Winner and Improbable against each other March 9, but it’s all about logistics. Might as well stay home and duke it out instead of having to travel to Arkansas twice. Knowing Baffert, they’ll probably finish in a dead-heat and remain undefeated. You would think the edge here has to go to the more brilliant Improbable in what looks to be a small field with no speed, but Game Winner already has three grade 1s under his belt and with his running style would seem to get more out of a good second. In other words, most people would cut Game Winner more slack as long as he is finishing well and doesn’t get trounced. It is interesting that Baffert changed tactics in his final work, five furlongs in 1:00 3/5, having him break off inside and in front of Dr. Dorr, knowing he’s going to have to show more speed to keep up with Improbable. This may have been Game Winner’s best work, as he dug in, wouldn’t let Dr. Dorr pass him, while striding out beautifully in the stretch and galloping out strongly. The ideal scenario for Baffert other than a dead-heat would be for the more brilliant Improbable to beat Game Winner by a close margin with a big gap to third. But I’m sure he wouldn’t complain if it was the other way around.

Improbable Bob Baffert

City Zip—Rare Event, by A.P. Indy

Being the more brilliant of the two and having more tactical speed gives him an advantage in the San Felipe, especially having raced more recently, although Game Winner is the more seasoned of the two. But at this point there doesn’t seem to be anyone to run with Improbable if he wants the lead. His five-furlong work in :59 4/5 was another thing of beauty, most notably that incredible stride. I am so impressed with how many flawless works he has turned in this year, working by himself. He is a textbook on how a horse should look in workouts. You can tell the difference between the two horses by the way he works in :59 4/5 by himself and taken wide, while Game Winner works in 1:00 3/5 in company with a top-class older horse and remaining much closer to the rail. Although one of the Baffert pair likely is going to taste defeat for the first time, it’s all about taking a solid first step and moving forward off it. There is more of a mystique surrounding Improbable because of the dominance of his victories and his flawless works, so there is a bigger bubble to burst if he should get beat. But, again, it is all about how the race is won, who has the tactical advantage, and who looks like they got more out of the race. I would think that after next week’s races there is a good chance Improbable will be the new No. 1, but we’ll see who actually looks more like a Derby horse. In any event, bring it on.

War of Will Mark Casse

War Front—Visions of Clarity (IRE), by Sadler's Wells

I could have put several horses in this spot, but no one has yet to blow me away in any of the major preps so might has well let him hang around here until someone does … like next Saturday. He had an easy maintenance work, breezing a half in :50 1/5. There is still a question of the quality of competition at Fair Grounds this year, so we really have no idea what’s he been beating. You would think the Louisiana Derby will provide more of a test if they get some quality shippers. But that six-week gap to the Kentucky Derby still is bothersome, and there is a reason why Louisiana Derby winners and Fair Grounds-based 3-year-olds don’t win the Kentucky Derby. It’s a good series of preps, but the record in the Derby is what it is. That’s not to say he can’t end that trend. To his credit he has pretty much dominated his opponents on dirt and has done nothing wrong, doing everything like a pro. So let’s say at this point he is very solid.

Win Win Win Michael Trombetta

Hat Trick (JPN)—Miss Smarty Pants, by Smarty Jones

Yes, he is probably ranked too high for what he has accomplished and who he has been running against and the fact that he’s never been two turns, but sometimes you just have to go by gut feeling, and his Pasco romp was sheer brilliance. The Tampa Bay Derby is a huge jump, but his bullet :47 breeze, fastest of 75 works at the distance, indicates he is ready. Not only will we learn how good he is, but what his running style is. He showed good early speed going 5 1/2 furlongs, but then broke slowly in his two seven-furlong races and closed strongly from far back. His Brisnet speed figures are climbing with every race and his Thoro-Graph figure in the Pasco makes him one of the fastest 3-year-olds in the country. I can’t wait to see what he does going two turns after a little bit of a layoff. Remember, both his grandsires won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness and finished second in the Belmont Stakes.

Bourbon War Mark Hennig

Tapit—My Conquestadory, by Artie Schiller

He had been in the Top 12 briefly and is the kind of horse you like to have back. I realize his late closing burst in the Fountain of Youth Stakes was visually impressive, but due in good part to a pace meltdown and very slow closing fractions. But he did come home his final sixteenth in about :06, making up four to five lengths. And the feeling here is that if Irad Ortiz had taken the inside path he probably would have won, as it opened up for a clear run. But he elected to swing six-wide and came up just short with his powerful late rally. He normally doesn’t come from as far back as 11 lengths, but he’s never encountered a pace this fast. We’ll have to see how far he wants to go, but his Brisnet late pace figures have been very strong. He should be even more formidable in the Florida Derby with the longer stretch. Depending on what happens next week he could very well move up a couple of places.

Code of Honor Shug McGaughey

Noble Mission (GB)—Reunited, by Dixie Union

The only reason he is just below Bourbon War is because, unlike the runner-up, he had an absolutely perfect trip and a perfect pace setup, saving ground behind a brutal pace that collapsed in front of him. He was able to pick up the pieces through a sluggish :26 2/5 and :07 closing fractions. And it was Code of Honor who came home in :07. But on the positive side it was a big rebound effort from the Mucho Macho Man dud and there is no reason why he shouldn’t improve off it. Before last year’s Breeders’ Cup I wrote a column ranking the horses in the Juvenile most likely to win the Kentucky Derby and I ranked him No. 1, with Game Winner No. 2. I am still a sucker for the Champagne Stakes and have a tremendous amount of respect for a horse who runs big going a flat mile in grade 1 company. The usually conservative McGaughey threw him right into the Champagne off a six-furlong maiden win and he appeared to lose all chance when he stumbled twice coming out of the gate and dropped far back. He swung out nearing the top of the stretch and closed well to finish second to the pacesetting Complexity in a rapid 1:34 3/5, one of the fastest Champagnes ever. I loved his last work before the Fountain of Youth and his performance was huge in that it brought him back to that Champagne effort, perfect trip or no perfect trip. Now it’s time to take another step forward.

Mucho Gusto Bob Baffert

Mucho Macho Man—Itsagiantcauseway, by Giant's Causeway (IRE)

Baffert could run him in the March 24 Sunland Derby or the March 16 Rebel Stakes where he could also run Dessman. I would like to see him get tested in a full field of top-class stakes horses after coming off an easy score in a small field in the slop. The Rebel would also give him two more starts rather than have to go into the Derby off a six-week layoff. Forget his defeat to Improbable; it looks as if Baffert has taught him how to rate behind horses, as he has done in his recent works. He worked a half in :47 3/5 last week in company with Honeyfromthesouth. He was being pushed along in the stretch but couldn’t get by his workmate, finishing a head back, and also didn’t get by her on the gallop-out. He came back with a five-furlong work in 1:00 1/5 on Tuesday. His Thoro-Graph number jumped 4 1/2 points from the Los Alamitos Futurity to the Robert Lewis, so he is improving and he does have the pedigree to keep stretching out in distance.

Country House Bill Mott

Lookin At Lucky—Quake Lake, by War Chant

He returned to the work tab with a :49 1/5 half-mile breeze in company with Yoshida, much to the satisfaction of Mott, who is happy with the way he came out of the Risen Star Stakes, which was an excellent learning experience. Each step he has taken so far has moved him forward and he looks like a horse who should be peaking on Derby Day. He is a big strong horse and I think he could probably use two more starts before the Kentucky Derby just to help him mature after his antics in the Risen Star, but it would seem the logical move is to bring him back to Fair Grounds for the Louisiana Derby, and I explained the possible pitfalls of doing that. We’ll see what Mott decides to do. Right now it was just good to see him back on the work tab and eyeballing the possible Dubai World Cup winner.

Galilean Jerry Hollendorfer

Uncle Mo—Fresia, by El Prado (IRE)

Flavien Prat had his choice of several live Derby mounts but has landed on this colt, who is headed to Oaklawn for the March 16 Rebel Stakes. This will be his first start against open company so all he needs is to be right there at the finish, leaving something in the tank for the next two races. He is a powerhouse of a horse with a world of potential, and physically and visually just looks like a Derby horse. He worked five furlongs in 1:01 1/5 on Tuesday. Having had it so easy, what he needs more than anything is to look a good horse in the eye so we can see just what he’s made of. We know he can blow the doors off Cal-breds, now it’s time to get serious. He can use the Rebel as a steppingstone to his final prep, but he must be competitive and needs to be running strongly at the wire. If some hotshot narrowly beats him going 1 1/16 miles it’s not the end of the world. It’s when he gets to 1 1/8 miles that we’ll know what we need to about him.

Dream Maker Mark Casse

Tapit—To Dream About, by Monarchos

He breezed a half in :49 at Fair Grounds. He could stay home and wait for the Louisiana Derby, but more likely will head to Tampa for the March 9 Tampa Bay Derby. He would be far better off with two more starts, so this looks like a good spot for him and would set him up perfectly for a race like the Blue Grass Stakes or better still the Arkansas Derby if Casse wants the extra week on the front end rather than going into the Kentucky Derby. He is another with a world of potential based on his last start, which was one of the most impressive performances of the year. What makes it even more impressive is that the horse he trounced by 8 1/2 lengths, Courtyard, came back to win a mile and 70-yard allowance race Saturday, running down the 6-5 favorite Aquadini, who finished 13 3/4 lengths ahead of the third horse.

Omaha Beach Richard Mandella

War Front—Charming, by Seeking the Gold

He is back in the Top 12 after a very impressive five-furlong work in 1:00 4/5, suggesting his quarter crack is no longer an issue. He sat three lengths off a workmate, went inside him turning for home, and just glided down the stretch with great extension before galloping out with authority. He will get his big test in the March 16 Rebel Stakes. Although Nolo Contesto, who narrowly defeated him in a maiden race, ran below expectations last Friday, he has put that defeat behind him with his spectacular victory in the slop last time out. You never know with quarter cracks and you sure don’t want to see any setbacks at this stage, but he’s been patched up and apparently good as new judging by the way he was striding out in his workout and the fact that Mandella has no reservations about pushing on with him.

Spinoff Todd Pletcher

Hard Spun—Zaftig, by Gone West

I’m taking a shot with this guy because of his tremendous potential, as I wrote in detail last week. Even being green he still was able to crush a talented horse in Cave Run by nearly 12 lengths in fast time. To beat a stakes-placed horse who was bet down to 9-5 like that when you’re running with your head and ears up and apparently goofing off a little shows just how much more improvement he still has with a little more maturity. Just watching John Velazquez constantly looking back for competition gives you an idea how much confidence he had in him. And to show how much he’s improved, he went from double-digit Thoro-Graph numbers to a “4,” which puts him right there in contention with one more move forward. There were high hopes for him right from the beginning until they discovered the beginning of a condylar fracture after a third-place finish in the Saratoga Special. A screw was placed in the leg and he’s back better than ever. Even when he was being broken he did everything right. He had a wonderful way of going and did it all easily with that long stride of his. I believe this colt’s future is limitless and we haven’t seen anything even close to his peak.

KNOCKING ON THE DOOR

Boy are there going to be changes in the Top 12 after next weekend’s three big dirt stakes. Those changes have started already.

The sad part of HIDDEN SCROLL’S fourth-place finish in the Fountain of Youth is not that he got beat, but that his chance to show he is a Derby horse was squandered when he wound up chasing a 132-1 shot who everyone knew was going to quit after a half-mile. After getting bumped and stumbling a bit coming out of the gate it was a perfect opportunity to take a little hold of him, let him settle in second and sit behind the longshot pacesetter. But instead he was allowed to go after him through testing fractions of :22 4/5 and :45 3/5. Of course, he eventually shook free from him, but the damage had been done and he never got more than a 1 1/2-length lead. So, unfortunately, we know little more about him after this race. Having only three career starts before the Derby, each race needed to be a steppingstone and a learning experience as to how to be ready for the Derby with so little experience. Justify did it last year, but did it the right way.

I thought he actually ran a good race to be beaten three lengths, but remember, they were crawling at the end with closing fractions of :26 2/5 and :07 flat. In short, I just thought this was a wasted opportunity when he had the perfect scenario with a built-in “rabbit.” But rabbits are for chasing, not fighting. Once you do that, and at 6-5 no less, you are just setting it up for the closers and all but eliminating your own chances. Hopefully, things will work out better in the Florida Derby if that is the path they choose. I still believe this is a very talented horse, but he now has to earn his way back into the Top 12.

It was touch and go whether to put VEKOMA in the Top 12, but I’m not sure three horses from the Fountain of Youth deserve to be there, at least not right now. At one point I thought Vekoma was going to win it, as he put in a good move on the outside. But Code of Honor was moving a little stronger of the two on the inside, and it didn’t help Vekoma when the winner came out after turning for home right in Vekoma’s path, causing him to hesitate just enough. With his paddling action and not changing leads until late, he looked a bit out of sync and wasn’t able to sustain his move, running evenly through the final furlong, beaten 2 3/4 lengths. It was a good effort, especially off the layoff, and he should improve off it, but I’m just not sure how far he wants to go.

As for some of the others, GLOBAL CAMPAIGN ran OK and made a brief run at Hidden Scroll, but also couldn’t sustain it. The fact that he was fifth, beaten 5 1/2 lengths and only a length in front of 94-1 shot UNION’S DESTINY make you wonder about the overall quality of the race. One way of determining good races and good horses is the separation at the finish, and with the first seven finishers, including a big bomb, finishing seven lengths apart, you just don’t know how strong a race it was. Right now it looks to be a good race with a decent 95 Beyer to the winner, but we need to see more and that should come in the Florida Derby. The big disappointment was SIGNALMAN, who was another half-length back in seventh. The pace set up for him and he was down on the inside where he likes to be, but he never fired. As I said last week, I wasn’t crazy about this spot for him. He just doesn’t have the speed or the quickness to excel at Gulfstream, especially at 1 1/16 miles with the short stretch. I think you’ll see a different horse in the Florida Derby, but he may be more suited to the Wood Memorial or Blue Grass Stakes. Wherever he runs next, I wouldn’t give up on him.

We regretfully have to say goodbye to one of our favorites, SUPER STEED, who was knocked off the Derby trail with bone bruising, and to NOLO CONTESTO, both from the Top 12, after an uninspiring second at 4-5 to a very good horse in ROADSTER, but one who had not run in six months. I’m not so sure we saw the best of Nolo Contesto. Breaking from the rail in a five-horse field is OK if you use that as an advantage to take the lead and control the pace, even if that is not the best strategy to prepare for the Kentucky Derby.

Joel Rosario looked to have an easy path to the lead going into the first turn, but he elected to take back while a 70-1 shot was allowed to crawl up front in 1:13 for the six furlongs. Ironically, if he had ridden Hidden Scroll like he rode Nolo Contesto and Nolo Contesto like he rode Hidden Scroll he might very well have won both races. Mike Smith, aboard Roadtser, had to have been salivating to be in a position to keep Nolo Contesto trapped down on the rail and prevent him from getting out, which is just what he did. Nolo Contesto never looked comfortable down there, and when it was time to dispose of the leader, Smith and Roadster got first run and never looked back, as Nolo Contesto basically came up empty, just edging out 19-1 shot Manhattan up for the place. With that 1:13 three quarters and clear sailing all the way, Roadtser was able to come home his final quarter in :24 1/5 and final eighth in :12 flat without ever feeling the whip.

Even if Nolo Contesto had won by 20 lengths he still would have to finish first or second in the Santa Anita Derby to assure a spot in the Kentucky Derby. But by getting beat without threatening the winner it has to raise the question of whether he’s ready or even good enough to be competitive on the first Saturday in May. I still believe the talent is there, but it was only his third career start and first against winners and this did nothing to move him forward.

As for Roadster, not bad for Bob Baffert’s fifth stringer. He ran back to his sensational six-furlong work in 1:10 3/5 two works back and he does have a pedigree to suggest he can continue to stretch out in distance. Remember, this was Baffert’s big buzz horse last summer after his impressive maiden victory. Now he is back in full throttle following surgery to correct a breathing problem. Baffert has just about every Derby prep locked up with contenders, so he will now have to find a spot for this promising son of Quality Road.

We’re now into March and it’s no longer just about talent. Timing plays a big part in a horse’s status on the Derby trail. Case in point, I still believe MUCHO is an extremely talented colt, which is why I ranked him so high on the first Derby Dozen. On one hand it was great to finally see him return to the races and beat two pretty fast horses in a six-furlong allowance race. But I am trying to figure out a way he can make the Derby with a legitimate shot and I don’t see Mott pushing him. He still has a way to go to be competitive in top-class two-turn races. All I can come up with is to jump from six furlongs to 1 1/8 miles in a grade 1 or grade 2 and that is not Mott’s m.o.

After the race, Mott said, “I think we need to sit down with the powers that be and just figure out if we want to stretch out next time or what we want to do, distance-wise. I think that’s the main thing we’ve got to talk about. I’m sure we will (stretch him out) at some point, whether it’s next time or not. We’ve got to start somewhere.” That “some point” looks more likely down the road a bit. I have loved this colt since his maiden race. Wherever he winds up he will be a serious two-turn horse, but that looks to be later on.

With all eyes on Pletcher’s 4-5 shot SOLDADO in a one-mile allowance optional claimer at Gulfstream, it was Jason Servis who ran off with the race with the 2-1 FINAL JEOPARDY, who tracked the pace before drawing off to an impressive 3 3/4-length victory in a snappy !:35 4/5. Still a bit green, drifting out from a left-handed whip, this was only his third start, having broken his maiden in impressive fashion at Gulfstream and then finishing third in the six-furlong Limehouse Stakes. By Street Sense, out of an Unbridled’s Song mare, his second dam, Fleet and Fancy, is by Belmont Stakes winner Touch Gold and is a half sister to 2-year-old champion Midshipman and grade 2 winner Fast Cookie, dam of Frosted. So he has some powerful bloodlines.

Soldado, who was so impressive breaking his maiden last out, didn’t have the best of trips, getting bumped early and then having to race wide, but hung in there to finish third. Watch out for him next time.

In the grass horses switching to dirt department, Pletcher has Bourbon Stakes winner CURRENT ready for the Tampa Bay Derby following a solid third-place finish in the Dania Beach Stakes. The son of Curlin is bred for the dirt, so we’ll see how he makes the transition. On Saturday, the Kiaran McLaughlin-trained A THREAD OF BLUE scored his third straight victory on grass and second straight stakes victory, winning the Palm Beach Stakes defeating Kitten’s Joy Stakes winner CASA CREED. The son of Hard Spun is also bred for the dirt and has already won an off-the-turf maiden race at Belmont by two lengths going wire-to-wire in 1:23 1/5 for the seven furlongs.

As mentioned earlier, the Tom Amoss-trained COURTYARD, who had been crushed by Dream Maker last time out, turned in an impressive rally to run down 6-5 favorite AQUADINI in a mile and 70-yard allowance race at Fair Grounds. The son of Mizzen Mast was a $50,000 claim two races back in which he blew by horses in the stretch under Florent Geroux to win going away by 3 1/2 lengths. He is improving with every race and appears ready for bigger and better things.

At Oaklawn Park, CAPTAIN VON TRAPP, yet another Steve Asmussen-trained 3-year-old, defeated a good horse in HIDDEN RULER to win a one-mile allowance race for his second straight victory. The son of Trappe Shot scored by one length, covering the mile in 1:38 1/5.

In a 1 1/16-mile maiden race at Gulfstream, the 2,3,5 finishers against Hidden Scroll last time out came back to finish in 1,2,3 in reverse order, with fifth-place finisher IDENTIFIER scoring a wire-to-wire victory over third-place finisher RANGER UP and second-place finisher HIGH AMPLITUDE in 1:44 4/5.

The Oaklawn Park-based horses pointing for the Rebel Stakes had better start preparing for an all-out California invasion, and these aren’t second tier horses by any means. As of now it is possible that Galilean, Omaha Beach, and Mucho Gusto or Dessman are all headed there. Omaha Beach and Dessman were supposed to run in that one-mile allowance race on Friday won by Roadster, but Omaha Beach suffered the quarter crack and Dessman scratched out of the race to possibly run in the Rebel instead. Wherever DESSMAN runs it likely will be without blinkers and he should improve big-time off his second-place finish in the seven-furlong San Vicente Stakes. Although No. 4 or even No. 5 in Bob Baffert’s pecking order, he is immensely talented and could be a live one.

I am going to throw a name at you for the Rebel you might not be familiar with, but who could be a real sleeper. That is LAUGHING FOX, who has quietly put together back-to-back wins at Oaklawn, both of them in impressive fashion. This son of Union Rags is a relentless closer and his most recent victory in allowance company was only three-hundredths of a second slower than they ran the Southwest Stakes the same day. And his mile time of 1:37 3/5 in the 1 1/16-mile race was two-fifths faster than the exciting and highly touted maiden winner Intrepid Heart, also on the same day, and three-fifths faster than his talented stablemate Comedian, who also won on that same card.. He is a flashy-looking chestnut with four white socks and a blaze, and he bounced out of his victory by turning in a strong five-furlong work in 1:00 4/5. Keep an eye on this colt.

For those wondering about the Todd Pletcher-trained SO ALIVE, Vino Rosso’s brother who hadn’t worked in a while, he finally showed up on the work tab and made a bit of a splash, breezing a half in a bullet :48 2/5, fastest of 24 works at the distance. Todd Pletcher also sent out Gotham possibility FEDERAL CASE for a bullet work, as he blazed his five panels in :59 2/5. Holy Bull winner HARVEY WALLBANGER, who skipped the Fountain of Youth, breezed five furlongs in 1:02 4/5 at Gulfstream Park.

At Santa Anita, GUNMETAL GRAY worked six furlongs in 1:15 1/5 for the San Felipe, while San Vicente winner SPARKY VILLE went five furlongs in 1:04 1/5. EASY SHOT worked a half in :49 in company over an off track and I loved the way he cut the corner on the outside at the top of the stretch and going into the first turn on the gallop-out. He showed a lot of athleticism. Baffert sent out MUCH BETTER for a strong six-furlong work in 1:12 3/5 for the Gotham Stakes. He keeps his head down, but has somewhat high knee action. This was an excellent work and I loved the way he was striding out throughout the work. Also working at Santa Anita for the Gotham was INSTAGRAND, who went a half in :47 4/5.

In New York, MIND CONTROL breezed a half in :49 4/5 at Belmont or the Gotham Stakes. HAIKAL went his half in :48, and at Aqueduct, NOT THAT BRADY breezed five furlongs in 1:02 4/5. Withers winner TAX, who is waiting for the Wood Memorial, breezed a half in :48 2/5 at Belmont.

There has been a lot buzz surrounding El Camino Real Derby winner ANOTHERTWISTAFATE, who won in very impressive fashion. Prepping for his big Kentucky Derby prep on dirt, either the Sunland Derby or Santa Anita Derby, he breezed a half in :49 2/5 at Golden Gate. He is starting to show up on a number of radar screens, based on how he was striding out at the end of the El Camino Real Derby.

Some Fair Grounds works of note, LIMONITE and NITROUS went five furlongs in 1:01 1/5 for their respective starts in the Louisiana Derby and Sunland Derby. BANKIT went his five panels in 1:00 4/5, and OWENDALE breezed a half in :49.

It’s also a busy week on the international front. First off, there are two Kentucky Derby preps on Wednesday, the Patton Stakes at Dundalk in Ireland and the Derby Conditions Stakes at Kempton in England. The horse to watch at Kempton is JAHBATH, who has won his last three races by a total of 12 3/4 lengths, including a seven-length romp at Southwell in his last start. In Ireland, Aidan O’Brien will try to buy his ticket to Louisville by possibly sending out six horses, including U S S MICHIGAN, a son of War Front, out of an Unbridled’s Song mare who broke his maiden at Dundalk going six furlongs on March 1 and would have to wheel right back. O’Brien also has group 1-placed WESTERN AUSTRALIA, who is bred mostly for grass.

At Meydan on Saturday, they run the $300,000 Al Bastakiya, the second leg of the Dubai Triple Crown. Heading the field will be Godolphin’s ESTIHDAAF, a 5 1/2-length winner of the UAE 2,000 Guineas over heavy favorite WALKING THUNDER, who is passing the Al Bastakiya. Estihdaaf will face his Al Bastakiya Trial conqueror MANGUZI, who just hung on for the victory. Also entered is the UAE Oaks winner DIVINE IMAGE, as well as TABARAK, a son of Quality Road, out of an Afleet Alex mare who broke his maiden at Meydan last time out, and the Steve Asmussen-trained TONE BROKE, fourth in the Springboard Mile, but well-beaten in the Al Bastakiya Trial.

A victory by Estihdaaf would establish the son of Arch as a heavy favorite for the UAE Derby, which is expected to attract Japan’s DERMA LOUVRE, a son of Pyro who was third in the Hyacinth Stakes to OVAL ACE, a son of Henny Hughes. So both the Japanese colts are Derby possibilities.