Steve Haskin's Derby Dozen : Kentucky Derby Dozen

Derby Dozen - April 9, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

aspradling — Sun, 07 Apr 2013 21:59:00 GMT

War Pass—Runup the Colors, by A.P. Indy

Although we’ve seen a number of talented 3-year-olds, this year’s Derby trail has become pretty much of a crapshoot. Leaving him at No. 1 mainly because there’s no reason to put anyone else there. Basing that a good deal on pedigree, especially the stamina in female family, and the colt’s will to win and ability to overcome adversity. There’s been a lot of talk about Goldencents’ 105 Beyer, as well as Verrazano’s 95 and other sub-100 figs by Eastern horses, but let’s not forget, this colt ran a 102 Beyer breaking his maiden and is heading back up there, despite having terrible trips. Who knows how fast he can run with a clean trip?

Orb Shug McGaughey

Malibu Moon—Lady Liberty, by Unbridled

I’ve been saying all along that, as a traditionalist, I’m pulling for the colt’s connections because they do things the right way. He’s improving the right way, he’s been trained the right way, and he runs the right way. My main question is how fast he really is, as his times haven’t stacked up against other times on the same card. But I don’t believe we’ve seen his best, despite four straight victories. Would Johnny V and Cordero actually take off an undefeated Pletcher colt? Let’s just say I’m sure Shug is already shopping around.

Verrazano Todd Pletcher

More Than Ready—Enchanted Rock, by Giant’s Causeway

There are going to be some who liked his Wood victory and others who didn’t. The bottom line is he did what he had to and got a lot out of the race. That 1:13 4/5 three-quarters was a gift for a horse with his brilliance, but his last 3f in :36 3/5 was solid and he did fight off the challenge of a very classy horse. This colt gallops out after his works faster than that, so it’s safe to say he’s not a speedy-crazy horse and can settle. Once they go three-quarters that slow, you have to ignore speed figures, as it becomes a freaky kind of race. Bottom line is when you can get a good prep, show some fortitude, and win it, too, that’s an ideal scenario. He did try to get out on three separate occasions in the stretch. He’s going to confront a much stiffer pace in the Derby, so we still have no idea how he’s going to handle that going 1 1/4 miles in a 20-horse field.

Normandy Invasion Chad Brown

Tapit—Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor

Whereas the Wood was VJ-Day (Verrazano’s Victory in Jamaica Day), it also was D-Day (or Derby Day) for Normandy Invasion, whose closing rush to snatch second gave him the 40 points he needed to make the Derby cut. Despite the slow pace, his :36 1/5 final 3f still was very impressive, as was his strong gallop-out, opening up 5 lengths. He did have his head cocked to outside coming down the stretch. As soon as he hit the finish line, the rush began to jump on his bandwagon, with jocks agents all over the country no doubt groveling to get the mount. Like Velazquez, it will be hard for Castellano to go off Revolutionary, but this also is a very enticing mount. Cannot recall when the four possible Derby favorites had only two riders. His female family has a good deal of speed influences, but he runs like a horse who wants to keep going.

Oxbow D. Wayne Lukas

Awesome Again—Tizamazing, by Cee's Tizzy

Still believe this colt has tremendous upside and would have to be a trip handicapper’s delight. Just want to see what he can do with a good trip, where he doesn’t lose a ton of ground and doesn’t make a premature move. His running style would seem to fit Gary Stevens perfectly. Last time he had a good trip he won by over 11 lengths. He is one horse whose pedigree shouts 1 1/4 miles on both sides and I just want to see a big effort that can move him forward one more time.

Goldencents Doug O'Neill

Into Mischief—Golden Works, by Banker's Gold

His Santa Anita Derby score was impressive for sure, but I just don’t know what to make of him going 1 1/4 miles. His pedigree is inundated with sprinters and milers, even though his jockey already has him going 1 1/2 miles. His 105 Beyer was a big jump from last, but he came home his last 3f in a moderate :38 1/5. But to his credit he did run his opening three-quarters in 1:10 2/5 and beat the third horse by almost 10 lengths, although this was not a strong field as a whole by any means. Imagine O’Neill winning back-to-back Kentucky Derbys with Mario Gutierrez and Kevin Krigger. He’s already done it in the Santa Anita Derby, which is pretty remarkable in itself.

War Academy Bob Baffert

Giant's Causeway—Cabbage Key, by A.P. Indy

Pulling this one out of left field, despite the fact he’s behind the eight-ball and is a big lazy horse with not a lot of racing foundation. But I feel he’s going to run big in the Arkansas Derby. Watched his last race several times and was very impressed with the way he won and the way he moves. Remember, Manando, the horse he just cruised by with little effort, gave Goldencents all he could handle in the Sham Stakes (98 Beyer), and he came home in :23 4/5, :24, and :06 2/5 eased up. What I also love about him is how he takes after his sire and most of all his broodmare sire, running low to the ground. His stride is extremely reminiscent of A.P. Indy and rightly so. His dam is inbred 4x3 to Gay Missile, who is the great-granddam of A.P. Indy and granddam of Mayville’s Magic, who was bred to A.P. Indy to produce War Academy’s dam. So, you’ve got A.P. Indy’s great granddam close up twice in his female family. Also, I love the fact that in the year of Secretariat’s 40th anniverary of his Triple Crown sweep, this colt is inbred three times to Big Red through super mares Terlingua (dam of Storm Cat), Weekend Surprise (dam of A.P. Indy), and Secrettame (dam of Gone West). Many questions, but I’ll take a shot with him.

Vyjack Rudy Rodriguez

Into Mischief —Life Happened, by Stravinsky

It looked as if he were making a winning move after Rosario set him down in the stretch, but he couldn’t get closer than Verrazano’s flank. It was reported he bled a ‘2’ on a scale of ‘5,’ but bleeding through Lasix, you have to ask if the bleeding was caused by his struggle and inability to catch the winner. Once again, I honestly don’t know how far he wants to do go, but I am still convinced he’s an extremely talented horse. It also must be noted that inner track horses took a beating from Florida shippers all afternoon. He tried awfully hard, but I think the slow pace hurt him, as he had to really buckle down to try to catch Verrazano, who had a lot left after those inert fractions. Normandy Invasion was able to come late and pick up the pieces and just nail him for second. I’m not crazy about a horse going into a stressful race like the Kentucky Derby having just bled and having a dicey temperament on top of that. I think he’s better than No. 9, but for now this is as high as I can rank him until I see him train at Churchill.

Itsmyluckyday Eddie Plesa Jr.

Lawyer Ron—Viva la Slew, by Doneraile Court

Here we go again. It’s not easy moving him down to No. 10 after having him No. 1 for so many weeks, and he is another who could be an overlay come Derby Day. I just wish he had put up a little more of a fight when Orb came to him and had an easier time putting away Merit Man, who was coming off all sprints. There is always that nagging feeling that perhaps he simply ran too fast too early and peaked way too soon. It wasn’t surprising he regressed off his two monster speed figures in the Holy Bull and Gulfstream Derby, but I was hoping he would be more competitive. Let’s see how much energy he shows in his training after getting to Churchill.

Mylute Tom Amoss

Midnight Lute—Stage Stop, by Valid Expectations

This big good-looking colt takes after his sire in appearance and is really coming around the right way. His second in the Louisiana Derby fits the pattern of many Derby winners. He has the right temperament, can sprint or go long, and is sound and battle-tested. And he will have blinkers off second time in the Derby. He’s had nine starts at five different tracks and has really flourished since his two-month break from Dec. to Feb. He needed the Risen Star, where he was beaten only 3 1/4 lengths, and took a huge step forward in the Louisiana Derby, which put him on an upward spiral. He did extremely well on his early heart scans as a yearling, which no doubt has helped him bounce back race after race. After he vanned from Fair Grounds to Churchill they had to breeze him a half five days later because he was feeling so good. This is your true dark horse who will fly in under the radar.

Rydilluc Gary Contessa

Medaglia d'Oro—Swift and Classy, by Clever Trick

Been waiting for him to work and he appeared to put in a useful drill at Keeneland, but who knows what’s a good work over that track? He has two major hurdles to get over – Polytrack and then dirt. So even if he runs big in the Blue Grass against a large, talented field and makes it into the Derby, you still don’t know what he’ll do at Churchill. Yes, he ran poorly in his only dirt try, but it was his career debut and supposedly he lost it in the paddock, being exposed to something new. But now that he’s matured, those problems apparently are behind him. I have him on here for a simple reason – I just feel there is something special about him. Of course, that is based on his grass races and I’m obviously guessing his talent will translate to other surfaces (He definitely is bred for the dirt). If it doesn’t we’ll know next week and he can go back to the grass. But if it does….

Lines of Battle Aidan O'Brien

War Front—Black Speck, by Arch

Again stepping out of the box and going against final times, considering his about 1 3/16 miles in 2:02.05 in the UAE Derby was incredibly slow and that he’s never been on dirt. But there was something visually impressive about his race. Putting a watch on the race and the World Cup, he came home his final quarter and three-sixteenths four-fifths slower than Animal Kingdom (:25 1/5 final quarter and :19 2/5), which actually is pretty solid, considering the UAE Derby was his first start beyond a mile and he defeated the first four finishers of the 1 3/16-mile Al Bastakiya. Despite the deep, laboring track, over a distance well beyond the farthest he’d ever run, and not having raced in almost five months, he was able to turn back the challenge of Elleval on his inside and actually was drawing away at the end. And I love the fact his dam is a half-sister to Dynaformer and traces to one of Darby Dan’s foundation mares Golden Trail. Also from this family are grade I dirt horses Brian’s Time and Darby Creek Road. It’s a longshot, but in a seemingly wide-open year like this you might as well take a stab, and you have to admire O’Brien’s persistence in trying to win the Derby. Master of Hounds did run huge in 2011, finishing fifth, beaten only 5 1/4 lengths.

Knocking At The Door

You can’t say I’m not persistent when it comes to PALACE MALICE. No, I’m not crazy about having to bring him back in two weeks to run over Polytrack in a full field in order to try to get enough Derby points, but I will stick with him just in case the Royal Anthem grass influence comes out in the Blue Grass. He certainly deserves the chance after his horrid trip at Fair Grounds. The firm belief here is that he desperately needed the Risen Star, having had only one seven-furlong allowance race in almost seven months, and his Louisiana Derby was a complete toss after a nightmarish trip in which he was blocked in traffic throughout most of the stretch run. Who knows, maybe he’s not as good I think, but he at least deserves a shot to prove it one way or the other. There also is a possibility he could wait for the Lexington Stakes if his connections feel those 20 points added to the 10 he already has will be enough to get him in the Derby. I feel the Arkansas Derby, with a much smaller and likely weaker field and on dirt, would suit him far better, especially with 18 horses trying to get in the Blue Grass and several horses destined to draw terrible posts.

Rounding out the list of contenders, in addition to the brilliant, but inexperienced Sunland Derby winner GOVENOR CHARLIE and the vastly improved Spiral winner BLACK ONYX, are some live horses who could make a big leap after next weekend. They are WILL TAKE CHARGE (who had been No. 12 for the past several weeks), JAVA’S WAR (who needs only to duplicate his Tampa Bay Derby performance to emerge as solid contender), UNCAPTURED (who should improve big-time off his Spiral second, going 1 1/8 miles off a four-month layoff), OVERANALYZE (whose form was boosted by Normandy Invasion, and who is looking to rebound off a disappointing effort in the Gotham), DEN’S LEGACY (who is always right there against the best), DYNAMIC SKY (who has a great deal of potential), FALLING SKY (who ran deceptively good in his two races at Tampa), WEST HILLS GIANT (the pacesetting runner-up in the Gotham), DEWEY SQUARE (who is looking to find his form from last year’s Kentucky Jockey Club), the steadily improving Santa Anita maiden winner FOOTBRIDGE, and NOBLE TUNE (who is looking to transfer his turf form to the synthetic). You can make a case for any of these horses.

Derby Dozen (video) - March 26, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

aspradling — Mon, 25 Mar 2013 17:56:00 GMT

Itsmyluckyday Eddie Plesa Jr.

Lawyer Ron—Viva la Slew, by Doneraile Court

This is it. If you’re going to put all your eggs in one basket, you might as well do it on Easter weekend. Had his final Florida Derby tuneup with a half in :49 2/5. It’s simple: first or second and he’s in; third and he’s in danger of being excluded. Let’s just hope he has a clean trip and there isn’t a three-way photo to sweat out.

Verrazano Todd Pletcher

More Than Ready—Enchanted Rock, by Giant’s Causeway

He’s already secured a spot in the Derby; now it’s time for a little gut check and to put some bottom under him. Worked a half in :49 3/5, but DRF had him “galloping” out in 1:01 2/5, up in 1:13 2/5. Those are :11 4/5 and :12 eighths and horses don’t gallop out a quarter in :23 4/5, so that was more like a 6f work. It was exactly what he needed – slow early and fast late and a good tightener. Time to find out just how special this colt really is.

Revolutionary Todd Pletcher

War Pass—Runup the Colors, by A.P. Indy

Here is another top-ranked colt who must deliver, but he has to do it in a big field over a foreign surface against some talented locals and a tough stablemate. He’s had a habit of finding trouble through no fault of his own, and this definitely is not the time to continue that trend. Officially worked a half in :48 1/5 with Overanalyze, but more like 5f in 1:00 3/5. He will go into the Derby off one race in 13 weeks, while stablemate Shanghai Bobby will have one race in 14 weeks. We obviously won’t know until Derby Day how effective this conservative approach will be. The one positive is that both colts at least have a decent 2-year-old foundation. Perhaps Pletcher will have them peaking on the first Saturday in May, as I’ll Have Another did last year.

Orb Shug McGaughey

Malibu Moon—Lady Liberty, by Unbridled

No pressure on him at all in the Florida Derby. He already has enough projected points and with his style of running, he only needs to be closing at the end to set him up for the Derby. If he wins, fine. Knowing McGaughey, he’s more interested in having him peak on the first Saturday in May, and the way he’s been progressing with each race he seems ready to do just that.

Oxbow D. Wayne Lukas

Awesome Again—Tizamazing, by Cee's Tizzy

His overall record does not begin to do him justice. In his four 2-turn races he’s drawn post 10 twice and 11 once and got hung very wide all three times. The only time he drew a good post he won by 11 ½ lengths. His two worst finishes, well-beaten 4ths, were on a synthetic surface, and in his career debut he was pulled up and vanned off. So, his record on conventional dirt is 5 starts, 2 wins, a second, a third, and a fourth (beaten a half-length). In 8 starts, he’s been ridden by 6 different jockeys. Oh, yes, he’s already won at Churchill Downs by 4 ¾ lengths in 1:22 4/5 for 7f. His Thoro-Graph figs are very strong. From 2 to 3, he improved from an 8 ¾ to a 2, then paired up the 2, and then improved to a 1 ¼. No one has put together 3 consecutive figs this strong. All this adds up to a very live horse.

Vyjack Rudy Rodriguez

Into Mischief —Life Happened, by Stravinsky

He looked super working 5 furlongs in :59 flat in company, galloping out way ahead of his workmate, and he just kept going well down the backstretch. The more you watch the Gotham the more you have to be impressed with his stride and powerful closing punch, and that was not even his style of running. Now he steps up in class in the Wood and we’ll see what he can do against Verrazano and a desperate Normandy Invasion.

Hear the Ghost Jerry Hollendorfer

Ghostzapper—Rehear, by Coronado's Quest

I keep bouncing back and forth where to put this horse. Winning the Derby off only two 2-turn races and two 6-furlong sprints is not an easy task. But Hollendorfer is one trainer you know will have him as fit as possible. We’ve seen that explosive late burst of speed sprinting and two turns. One more time and he has to shoot up the list. What makes him so perplexing is his lack of racing combined with an acceleration that is rarely seen. If those moves were real and not an illusion, then he has the potential to be something special.

Shanghai Bobby Todd Pletcher

Harlan's Holiday—Steelin', by Orientate

Worked 5 furlongs in 1:00 4/5 in company with Palace Malice. Strategy is going to play an important role in the Florida Derby and he has to show the ability to adapt to any pace scenario that may confront him. The big question is, do you go all out to win this race even if it’s on the lead or do use it to teach him how to settle off the pace and close? He did close his final quarter in :24 1/5 in the Champagne, so we know he can come home. This could become a cat-and-mouse game with Itsmyluckday. The wrong move and Orb could swallow up both of them. But Rosie knows this horse so well and she’ll put him where he needs to be.

Palace Malice Todd Pletcher

Curlin—Palace Rumor, by Royal Anthem

Looking over the Future Wager horses for a potential bargain, he was the one who jumped off the page at 42-1, which very well may look like the overlay of the year after next week’s Louisiana Derby. The way he’s been working and how much room for improvement there is off the Risen Star, there is no reason he shouldn’t run a big race. One of the best angles on the Derby trail this year is the fact that he was the only horse in the Risen Star making his two-turn debut, he had only three career starts, and had only one seven-furlong race in almost 7 months under his belt. There was no way he was anywhere close to 100% wound up for that race, and he still was beaten only a half-length and out-battled Oxbow for the show spot. He has the pedigree to go long and has been training super, working 5f in 1:00 4/5 in company with Shanghai Bobby. That’s the kind of 42-1 shot I want in the Future Wager. If he can get through a tough Louisiana Derby unscathed, watch out in Louisville.

Flashback Bob Baffert

Tapit—Rhumb Line, by Mr. Greeley

Like Verrazano and Hear the Ghost, he is light on racing experience with only four career starts, but he at least got a stiff test in the San Felipe and emerged a stronger Derby horse than he was before when had only two easy victories to his credit. As long as he doesn’t do anything to hurt his chances, like he did last time by engaging Goldencents early, he should be a tougher opponent in the Santa Anita Derby. The question is, did he just get tired late in the San Felipe or did Hear the Ghost turn on the afterburners in the final sixteenth?

Normandy Invasion Chad Brown

Tapit—Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor

He continues to train sharply for his big Derby push in the Wood Memorial. He followed up his :59 3/5 drill last week with a bullet 1:00 1/5 work, fastest of 30 works at the distance. You know he’s going to be flying at the end, but the main question is whether he’ll have a clean trip and doesn’t encounter the problems he did in the Risen Star. Those problems, mostly at the start, likely cost him enough to points to at least provide some breathing room going into the Wood. But again, when you have only two preps, you better make the most of both of them.

Will Take Charge D. Wayne Lukas

Unbridled’s Song —Take Charge Lady, by Dehere

With that big long stride of his and his ability to gut out close finishes, he’s always going to be dangerous, as long as he gets a track he can handle. Because of his stride, he most likely never got hold of the slop in the Southwest. He’s already won over Keeneland’s Polytrack, breaking his maiden there last year, so the Blue Grass should be a good prep for him, especially considering he’s already in the Derby field and just needs a good tightener to move him forward.

Knocking At The Door

Have to get this out of the way first. Although it has more to do with the Oaks than the Derby, was someone at The Jockey Club sleeping when they approved the name WAR RELIC for a 3-year-old filly? Have we lost touch with history to such a degree that a horse can be named after the most successful son of Man o’War at stud, whose remains along with Man o’War and War Admiral were moved to a place of honor at the Kentucky Horse Park? If this were Twitter, I would end this with #Blasphemy #Disgraceful.

Also, a mention must be made of Rob Whiteley, for years one of the most successful breeders in the country, who was responsible for dozens of grade I winners while operating his Liberation Farm on a much smaller scale than the major breeding operations. Whiteley no longer was able to overcome the breeding industry’s many economic pitfalls and was forced to liquidate his entire stock and retire as a Thoroughbred breeder. While it is sad and scary to think that someone as astute and successful as Whiteley could be driven to such an extreme by the banks, he at least was able leave the sport with a heckuva going away present as breeder of 3-year-old stakes winners ITSMYLUCKYDAY, RYDILLUC, and Saturday’s Rushaway winner CROP REOPRT. It is hoped that these three talented colts can keep Whiteley’s name up near the top of the leading breeders list – a place he occupied for many years.

Speaking of Rydilluc, even if I wanted to bet him in the Future Wager, I couldn’t, because he’s not among the 23 individual betting interests. Nothing against Noble Tune, but why is he on there and not Rydilluc? Noble Tune has only a head allowance victory on grass this year, while Rydilluc has two runaway grass victories, including the grade III Palm Beach Stakes. Have to admit, I don’t get that one at all. I’m also curious why Noble Tune is on there instead of Gotham runner-up West Hills Giant or fast-closing San Felipe third-place finisher Tiz A Minister, who was beaten a length by leading Future Wager contender Hear the Ghost and a half-length by Flashback? Noble Tune could turn out to be a terror on Polytrack and on dirt, but at this time I don’t know what he’s done this year to get on the list of betting interests over the aforementioned horses.

As for the weekend races, BLACK ONYX and UNCAPTURED both stamped themselves as legitimate Derby horses, mainly because they have already proven themselves on dirt and their performances in the Spiral Stakes indicate they should improve next time out. Both colts were very late changing leads and Uncaptured didn’t change until almost at the sixteenth pole. He just seemed uncomfortable on that track coming down the stretch and you have to give him credit for finishing a strong second over a deep synthetic track going 1 1/8 miles off a four-month layoff and physical problems. It is a difficult task for any 3-year-old to just return at 1 1/8 miles off a layoff over any kind of track, but to do it on that kind of surface says a great deal about the colt, who should be much stronger and fitter with this race under him. Once he did change leads in deep stretch, he was striding out much smoother to the wire. He does have back-to-back stakes scores at Churchill Downs, so all he needs to do is pick up a minimal amount of points in his next start to assure he makes it into the Derby field. He may be in already with 30 points and almost $400,000 in stakes earnings.

Black Onyx is now in the capable hands of Kelly Breen, who has saddled the Rock Hard Ten colt to two victories in as many starts. Although he finished a well-beaten fourth on the dirt at Gulfstream, he does have a victory at Aqueduct and a second at Belmont last year in off-the-turf maiden races. What made his performance in the Spiral so impressive was how wide he was for the entire race, especially going into the first turn and down the backstretch. So, he, too, will get a lot out of this race. Next stop Louisville.

At Sunland Park, Bob Baffert struck again, sending out the lightly raced GOVENOR CHARLIE to a five-length score in the Sunland Derby. The son of Midnight Lute, who is improving dramatically, but still has only three career starts, set a new track record of 1:47 2/5. So, does Baffert and Mike Pegram send him to the Derby with so little experience and having only won a grade III stakes at Sunland Park? The temptation is there for sure after such a dominating score, but it is asking a lot of the colt.

From a visual standpoint, the most imposing colt seen all weekend was CROP REPORT, who came from far back in last to blow away his opponents in the Rushaway Stakes at Turfway. Physically, this is the closest thing to Forego seen in many years, in size, color, stride, and even the way he sweeps around horses on the turn. He is spectacular to look at, especially in action where he dwarfs all the horses around him. Unfortunately, he is a May 31 foal and is not there mentally yet, so owner Team Valor will point him for the Belmont Stakes, with a likely prep in the Peter Pan. Like Forego, he should relish those big turns at Belmont.

One of the best works of the week was the 1:12 3/5 six-furlong drill by GROUND TRANSPORT, who rattled off his eighths in :12 2/5, :11 3/5, :11 4/5, :12 1/5, :12 1/5, and :12 2/5 in preparation for the Louisiana Derby. Also working for the Louisiana Derby were stablemates DEPARTING and SUNBEAN, who went their halfs in :47 1/5 and :48 1/5, respectively.

Some other works of interest include Florida Derby hopeful FRAC DADDY, who drilled five furlongs in 1:00 1/5, out in 1:13 1/5; SPEAK LOGISTICS, who went a half in a bullet :47 1/5 for the Blue Grass Stakes; and ELNAAWI, who tuned up for the Wood Memorial with a five-furlong breeze in 1:02 2/5 over the Belmont training track.

Also working for the Blue Grass was the aforementioned RYDILLUC, who breezed an easy seven furlongs in 1:30 on the turf.

April 26, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

cdawahare@bloodhorse.com — Mon, 26 Apr 2010 16:23:00 GMT

Lookin at Lucky Bob Baffert

Smart Strike—Private Feeling, by Belong to Me

Likely assumes the favorite’s role after the defection of Eskendereya. He’s been working sharply and he is flourishing physically with great muscle tone. Removal of blinkers will help get him back off what promises to be a rapid pace.

Sidney’s Candy John Sadler

Candy Ride—Fair Exchange, by Storm Cat

Would have preferred to see him go slower early and a bit faster late in his final six-furlong work, and also would have liked to seen him gallop out a bit stronger. But for sheer talent, he is as gifted as anyone in the field.

Stately Victor Mike Maker

Ghostzapper—Collect the Cash, by Dynaformer

Decided to take a chance that he is the real deal at the risk of looking foolish. Seeing him up close, there isn’t a better-looking horse in the race and he was always cut out to be a good one. Just have a feeling last was not a fluke.

Super Saver Todd Pletcher

Maria's Mon—Supercharger, by A.P. Indy

His final work went virtually unnoticed, but it was a strong move, hugging the rail and galloping out strong. His energy level Monday morning was high, and the feeling here is that Calvin Borel will get him to settle off the pace.

Devil May Care Todd Petcher

Malibu Moon—Kelli’s Ransom, by Red Ransom

Based on her latest work, she fits with these colts and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see her run a huge race. When a horse works like she did, while under wraps, and gallops out that strong, you have to consider them a legitimate threat.

Awesome Act Jeremy Noseda

Awesome Again—Houdinis Honey, by Mr. Prospector

He’s been galloping in company to simulate cover and moving well. With Eskendereya out of the race, he needs only to run back to his Gotham and Wood Memorial to be right there. But his quick move must be timed right.

Paddy O’Prado Dale Romans

El Prado—Fun House, by Prized

Barn is extremely confident, and rightfully so after his sharp work. Although Stately Victor ran right by him in the Blue Grass, he had set it up for him, and he still has a lot of room for improvement; intriguing longshot.

Mission Impazible Todd Pletcher

Unbridled’s Song—La Paz, by Hold Your Peace

Live longshot possibility. Love the way he’s been training, and he is another with tremendous room for improvement. Speed figures say he’s not fast enough, but 3-year-olds do improve dramatically this time of year.

Dublin D. Wayne Lukas

Afleet Alex—Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird

I keep going back and forth with him. If he’s ridden properly, dropping well back and making a sustained run from the five-eighths pole, he has a good shot to get in the trifectas and superfectas. Always puts in his run.

Ice Box Nick Zito

Pulpit—Spice Island, by Tabasco Cat

Really liked his last work and he should be sharp for the Derby. Six weeks is still a concern; that’s a long layoff going into the Derby, but he has had three 1 1/8-mile races and his style of running could help him overcome that.

American Lion Eoin Harty

Tiznow—Storm Tide, by Storm Cat

He is flourishing physically, his coat shining and well dappled. He has an enormous stride and is a free-running colt, so he doesn’t have many options, except to get a good position and grind them down. Better on dirt than synthetic.

Noble’s Promise Ken McPeek

Cuvee—The Devil’s Trick, by Clever Trick

Lung infection is something you don’t want to see before the Derby, but I like the way he worked and galloped out, and if he scopes clean, he should run a good race, based on his class, speed, and overall record. He always gives 100%.

Jackson Bend Nick Zito

Hear No Evil—Sexy Stockings, by Tabasco Cat

With his nemesis Eskendereya out of the race, he certainly fits with these horses. Like Noble’s Promise, he is gritty and tough and will battle you every step of the way, although distance is a question mark.

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April 19, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

cdawahare@bloodhorse.com — Mon, 19 Apr 2010 17:59:00 GMT

Even with the Coolmore Lexington Stakes (gr. II) completed, we still don’t have a firm field. A starting berth in the Derby is in such high demand, The Cliff’s Edge Derby Trial Stakes (gr. III) has now become a final last gasp for those with a bad case of Derby fever. One of those who has been stricken is Ken Ramsey, who, refreshingly, admits he has Derby fever in the worst way. And it has to be frustrating for him to have a closer who was beaten a nose in the Florida Derby (gr. I) and can’t find his way into the Derby.

So, instead of going into the Derby with no races in six weeks, as originally planned, the Derby would be Pleasant Prince’s third race in three weeks. And you know what? More power to Ramsey, who already has Dean’s Kitten in the field, for doing everything possible to get there with this colt, especially considering his attempt in the Toyota Blue Grass (gr. I), although futile, likely took little or nothing out of the horse.

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In an era of conservative training, wouldn’t it be nice to have a poster child for good old-fashioned racing when horses routinely ran every two to three weeks, and even running back in one week was nothing unusual. Ben Jones used to run all his big Calumet horses in the Derby Trial when it was only four days before the Derby and then worked them a half-mile two days before the Derby. The Blue Grass Stakes was at its most productive when it was run nine days before the Derby.

Whether or not Pleasant Prince wins the Derby Trial, and he has to win to get into the Kentucky Derby, at least Ramsey is taking his best shot with a horse who deserves to be in the race, and he’s honest enough to admit he is badly infected with Derby fever and covets that blanket of roses more than the Dubai World Cup and Breeders’ Cup trophies he’s already won.

Eskendereya Todd Pletcher

Giant's Causeway—Aldebaran Light, by Seattle Slew

He towers above the others in dominance and speed figures, and his negative 3 1/2 on Thoro-Graph puts him well above everyone else. But the last horse to romp by such big margins in his final two preps was Spend a Buck 25 years ago. He doesn’t even need to move forward, just maintain where he is. If he wins the Derby, you can bet Triple Crown sweep talk will be hot and heavy.

Lookin at Lucky Bob Baffert

Smart Strike—Private Feeling, by Belong to Me

I’m liking him more every day. He had his first spin over the Churchill surface, breezing 5 furlongs in 1:01 1/5. He has an incredible mind, which you want for the Derby, and you won’t find a more professional racehorse. If he has a chance to win, he’ll find a way to do it. If he didn’t finish out of the money in the BC Juvenile, Rebel, and SA Derby, with all the trouble he had, he may never finish out of the money. And unlike most of the others, the Derby has been on Baffert’s mind with this colt since last summer.

Sidney’s Candy John Sadler

Candy Ride—Fair Exchange, by Storm Cat

Putting him back to #3 after his excellent 5f work in :59 4/5, in which he sat off his workmate, then galloped out strong in 1:12 4/5. This work was just what you wanted to see. He settles so well, he should rate off the lead. If he does settle and can come home like he’s done in his three previous races he will be tough. The way Pro-Ride horses have performed on dirt, it’s not even worth bringing up that subject.

Dublin D. Wayne Lukas

Afleet Alex—Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird

Moving him up as well after breezing a bullet 5f in :59 1/5 at Churchill, fastest of 44 works. At least we know he loves the track. He is one of the few horses who can put in a long sustained run, but he hasn’t been able to finish it off. What he needs to do is take way back and launch that move from well off the pace in order to save more for the end. He doesn’t have a turn of foot and is more of a grinder, so his best shot is to sit back and pick off horses one by one. He is consistently fast in his Thoro-Graph numbers and he has the fastest 2-year-old figure to fall back on. I just would like to have seen him settle better in his work and gallop out stronger. The last you want from him now is early speed.

Endorsement Shannon Ritter

Distorted Humor—Charmed Gift, by A.P. Indy

I also moved him up after his most recent work, although I wish it had been at Churchill instead of Keeneland. But it definitely was a “Derby” work. Only having four starts is a slight concern, but his potential is unlimited and he is improving rapidly. Loved his :22 4/5 middle split, his “gallop” out in :12 2/5, and most of all pulling up another eighth in :13 2/5 for a 1:25 2/5 7f clocking, while blowing away his workmate by 10 lengths. That would have been a terrific 7f work, but pulling up in that time was extremely impressive. Maybe coming back to a much lower altitude (from 3,700 feet) can be a factor.

Awesome Act Jeremy Noseda

Awesome Again—Houdinis Honey, by Mr. Prospector

He is one of the few horses who had a legitimate excuse in his last start, losing a shoe coming out of the gate. He possesses the quickest turn of foot of anyone in the race, but it must be timed to perfection and he can’t be given too much to do too early. He is on a good pattern and should be flying at the end with a perfect trip. Julien Leparoux is the perfect rider for him and knows him pretty well by now.

Stately Victor Mike Maker

Ghostzapper—Collect the Cash, by Dynaformer

All logic says to ignore the Blue Grass; there is no reason why this colt all of a sudden has gone from mediocre allowance horse to Derby contender. But, visually, I can’t help but be impressed with what I saw. I just love the way he was striding out at the wire, and any horse who runs as well as he did on two occasions at Saratoga, on dirt and grass, has got to be legitimate. Other than his allowance at Churchill, after which he was very ill, and his return race after a three-month absence, he hasn’t shown any indication he won’t run well on dirt.

Super Saver Todd Pletcher

Maria's Mon—Supercharger, by A.P. Indy

As one can see I’m not really sure where to put him. He shied from the whip three times in the stretch of the Arkansas Derby, which might have cost him the victory. But it was only his second start of the year, so he should move forward. But his running style is not ideal in this year’s speed-heavy Derby, and of the four WinStar horses and however many Pletcher horses, he has always been the one considered the least likely to rate. But I still think the Arkansas Derby will move him forward; just the tightener he needed.

Ice Box Nick Zito

Pulpit—Spice Island, by Tabasco Cat

Being away for six weeks has sort of put him in the background, and you don’t hear too many people talking about him. The truth is, we really don’t know much about him, except he’s the one true deep closer in the field. And if there is a pace meltdown, which is entirely possible, he is one you can rely on to come late and pick up the pieces. Stablemate Jackson Bend is a tough little fighter and if he gets in he will make sure the stalkers are preoccupied for as long as possible.

Mission Impazible Todd Pletcher

Unbridled’s Song—La Paz, by Hold Your Peace

His Beyer Speed Figures and Thoro-Graph numbers say he’s not fast enough, but he still intrigues me. He basically runs the same race every time, but he seems to be maturing with every race and I can’t help but think he has a big effort in him. I just like what I see when I watch him run. It’s as if he’s lurking in the shadows, waiting to surprise a lot of people. He could be an interesting horse to fill out a juicy trifecta or superfecta.

Paddy O’Prado Dale Romans

El Prado—Fun House, by Prized

He has little shot running the same way he did in his last two races, but he has shown on three occasions he can come from far back and turn it on in the stretch. If he returns to that style and handles the dirt he could be a real sleeper. His Palm Beach was a 6 1/2-point improvement on Thoro-Graph, yet he improved off it in the Blue Grass, moving up 2 1/4 more points. Who knows how much more he can improve in the Derby if he can use his pedigree and closing punch.

American Lion Eoin Harty

Tiznow—Storm Tide, by Storm Cat

Frankly, I was surprised to see he received a negative Thoro-Graph number in the Illinois Derby, one of only two negative figs this year, making that race faster than one might have thought. That race was set up for him, it wasn’t a strong field, and he’s yet another horse with a ton of speed, but you never know when those Tiznows are going to break out.

Interactif Todd Pletcher

Broken Vow—Broad Pennant, by Broad Brush

I don’t like putting “doubtful” horses on here at this late date. But with Setsuko unlikely to get in, why wouldn’t his owners give him one shot to show what he can do on dirt, making one big late run from the back? They have nothing to lose. In the Blue Grass, he again was mistakenly hustled out of the gate and still ran a good race, despite never looking comfortable on that track and going very wide on both turns. Finally, the dirt beckons; go for it. If he does, he moves back up in the top 5. I’m sure not going to give up on him now.

April 12, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

cdawahare@bloodhorse.com — Mon, 12 Apr 2010 18:57:00 GMT

Saturday’s results are a perfect example why it is mere folly to compile Derby lists starting in January. It’s OK for fun and people enjoy doing them and debating over them, but the Derby trail has changed so dramatically in recent years, many stakes results in January, February, and March prove for the most part to be meaningless come April and May.

And welcome once again to the wild, weird, wacky world of Polytrack, where form has been reduced to a muddled mess. Why on earth any trainer would prep a dirt horse for the Derby in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) is beyond my comprehension, unless they were already safely secure in the body of the Derby field. The racing secretary’s office at Keeneland should have the following sign up on Blue Grass entries day: “Dirt Horses Who Need Graded Earnings Enter At Your Own Risk.”

The only three horses in the Blue Grass field to have stamped themselves as Derby contenders with graded stakes wins or placings on dirt this year were Pleasant Prince, beaten a nose in the Florida Derby (gr. I); Odysseus, winner of the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. III); and Aikenite, third in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II). Well, guess what? They occupied the bottom three places in the Blue Grass and lost all chance to make the Derby field.

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So, now, as in recent years, we have to go into the Derby wondering if a horse like Stately Victor is as good as he looked in the Blue Grass or if that race was another Polytrack fluke. One thing is for certain; he sure looked darn good, and if this race had been on dirt, he definitely would be considered by many as a legitimate threat to Eskendereya. He still may be, because of his class and stamina-laden pedigree and his visually impressive performance. And as you will see below, I am falling for it, while acknowledging I may be getting duped.

Going into the Blue Grass he had failed to hit the board in three starts this year and was beaten a total of 15 lengths in his last two dirt starts. Oh, and getting away from Polytrack, did I mention that Arkansas Derby (gr. I) winner, Line of David, had never competed in a stakes, had never run on dirt, and had never earned more than an 88 Beyer Speed Figure? Perhaps someone can explain how he could blast to the lead, set wicked fractions, blow a three-length lead, and still hold off proven stakes horses Super Saver and Dublin? Is he, like, Stately Victor, a budding star to emerge out of the far reaches of the galaxy on the eve of the Derby?

Darned if I know. What I do know is that for the third straight year, we could have a Derby winner that was a virtual unknown the first three months of the year.

And I also know that one late closer I like an awful lot who looks good enough to upset the Derby or at least finish in the money likely won’t even make the starting field with $180,000 in graded earnings, and that is Setsuko, who believe it or not is #28 on the earnings list. This year, it will take $250,000 to make the Derby field; last year, it took $55,500. It has never taken more than $165,000 and that was considered very high. When the runners-up in Santa Anita Derby, Florida Derby, and Wood Memorial can’t get in the Kentucky Derby, something is wrong.

Eskendereya Todd Pletcher

Giant's Causeway—Aldebaran Light, by Seattle Slew

Every prep race seems to separate him farther from the pack. Many are all but conceding him the Derby, as he appears capable of not only winning, but blowing the race wide open. Others want to see what he does with a fast pace and how he’ll react if he’s looked in the eye. The bottom line is that his victories have been on another level.

Lookin at Lucky Bob Baffert

Smart Strike—Private Feeling, by Belong to Me

He is still the solid second choice, although he goes about his business in a totally different manner than Eskendereya. He is the workmanlike, blue-collar type that will scratch and claw for everything he can get. And after all he’s been through he looks incapable of running a bad race. He needs to look Eskendereya in the eye at some point just to see what he’s made of.

Super Saver Todd Pletcher

Maria's Mon—Supercharger, by A.P. Indy

He actually started out at #1 back in December and remained in the top 3 before others replaced him. I was just looking for him to show he could run big while rating off the pace and he finally showed it. He did do a bit of drifting in the stretch, but he was probably getting tired, which was understandable considering the fast pace. The Arkansas Derby was only his second start and should move him forward and give him the tightness and toughness he’ll need for the big one. Crazy about his pedigree.

Sidney’s Candy John Sadler

Candy Ride—Fair Exchange, by Storm Cat

His task in the Derby actually got more difficult thanks to his own stablemate, Line of David, who showed at Oaklawn you’re going to have to really motor early to outrun him. It’ll be interesting to see how Sadler deals with this situation. Both horses have terrific speed and can carry it; it’s not an ideal scenario for stablemates.

Stately Victor Mike Maker

Ghostzapper—Collect the Cash, by Dynaformer

OK, I admit it. I am opening myself up to look foolish once again, getting suckered in by another Polytrack fiasco. But, boy did this horse look impressive visually, and I love the way he was running through the wire, as if he was just getting started. And the outrider had to hustle to catch him galloping out. His pedigree is strong, he’s a big, good-looking colt, and I remember being very impressed with him in his first two career starts at Saratoga (one on dirt) before he faded into virtual obscurity. Maybe he has returned. His pedigree shouts late developer.

Awesome Act Jeremy Noseda

Awesome Again—Houdinis Honey, by Mr. Prospector

If his losing a shoe at the start of the Wood Memorial compromised his chances, which it had to have done to some extent, then there is no reason why he shouldn’t rebound from a race in which he was supposed to “bounce” anyway. He likes running with cover and using his quick-fire acceleration, which will help him in the Derby. But his move has to be timed to perfection.

Paddy O’Prado Dale Romans

El Prado—Fun House, by Prized

Looked like he was home free in the Blue Grass, but battling on the lead and hitting the front so quickly didn’t help. I have no doubt he will love the dirt, the 10 furlongs, and will revert back to his old running style, coming from well off the pace. Only one horse won on the lead all day and the horse he was eyeballing finished last. His pedigree is as versatile as it gets. I just think he’s a very talented horse who is improving at the right time and could be a real sleeper. Cannot believe I like two horses coming off the Blue Grass, but I was impressed with what I saw and both look interesting.

Ice Box Nick Zito

Pulpit—Spice Island, by Tabasco Cat

I need to have at least one late-closing dirt horse fairly high up, although it’s hard to tell just how good he is and whether he’ll be able to overcome the 6-week layoff. What a difference that nose meant between him and Pleasant Prince, who had to go seeking earnings over a surface he obviously didn’t like at Keeneland and now won’t make the Derby.

Endorsement Shannon Ritter

Distorted Humor—Charmed Gift, by A.P. Indy

He is yet another talented horse who seems to want to be near the lead, but he is improving so quickly it’s possible he can be effective from anywhere. He was always highly regarded by the WinStar team. He’s a handsome, muscular colt and I’m looking forward to seeing him train at Churchill. If he’s thriving physically and training impressively he’ll be one to keep an eye on. I can see moving him up closer to the top.

Dublin D. Wayne Lukas

Afleet Alex—Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird

Keeping him on here because of his talent and consistency, but his inability to win or quicken is a bit of a concern. He has shown he is more of a grinder who can sustain his run a long way, but he hasn’t been able to finish it off and pass horses in the stretch. But, as mentioned, you have to give him high marks for consistency. He comes at you every race.

Mission Impazible Todd Pletcher

Unbridled’s Song—La Paz, by Hold Your Peace

He will go into the Derby as a forgotten horse, because he’s not flashy and the Fair Grounds form has proven to be suspect. But the feeling here is that there is a lot more to him than people think. With his steady improvement, he could run a big race at a big price in the Derby.

American Lion Eoin Harty

Tiznow—Storm Tide, by Storm Cat

In the world of WinStar, I’ll give him a slight edge over Rule, but it’s going to be difficult for both of them with their early speed. Rule actually might be a bit more ratable, but I’ll take the 4 weeks over the 6 weeks, especially with a speed horse; you don’t want them too fresh.

Line of David John Sadler

Lion Heart—Emma’s Dilemma, by Capote

Tacking him on the end only because he did win the Arkansas Derby and showed a lot of courage holding off two top-class horses. But his pedigree is not really geared for 10 furlongs and he’ll have a lot more pace pressure in the Derby, mostly from his own stablemate, Sidney’s Candy.

April 5, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

cdawahare@bloodhorse.com — Mon, 05 Apr 2010 17:43:00 GMT

Eskendereya Todd Pletcher

Giant's Causeway—Aldebaran Light, by Seattle Slew

Well, the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth certainly was no fluke. When it comes to combining brilliance with staying power, he stands alone among this year’s 3-year-olds. Only thing left is to see what he can do with a fast pace. His high cruising speed and ability to run his opponents into the ground with little effort make him a legitimate Derby favorite.

Lookin at Lucky Bob Baffert

Smart Strike—Private Feeling, by Belong to Me

Whoever named this colt apparently put the whammy on him. If there is a horse who can use some good luck it is him after three consecutive nightmare trips. He lost all chance in the SA Derby after having to take up badly at a crucial point in the race, but still finished well to finish third. Like the way he accelerated between horses and ran on strongly.

Sidney’s Candy John Sadler

Candy Ride—Fair Exchange, by Storm Cat

Didn’t you get the impression the Santa Anita Derby was over after a half-mile? He always seemed in complete control while setting another slow pace. For a speed horse he sure can motor home, which makes him very dangerous. He actually could turn out to be the only true speed in the Derby, depending on who runs. And when a speed horse can close in :35 3/5 (even on a synthetic surface) good luck trying to catch him.

Interactif Todd Pletcher

Broken Vow—Broad Pennant, by Broad Brush

Yes, he’s still here. No use lowering him now with the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes coming up. Persistence can be a good or bad thing on the Derby trail. We’ll find out soon which one applies in this case. Still want to see him back on dirt, but the Blue Grass will at least serve as a good gauge how he measures up against some top-quality horses from the East.

Setsuko Richard Mandella

Pleasantly Perfect—Dance With Grace, by Mr. Prospector

His one-for-seven career record is not the kind of statistic you want to bring into the Kentucky Derby, but as I’ve said before, I believe this horse will be far superior on the dirt, and is one horse who looks ready to peak on Derby Day. He lost a ton of ground in the SA Derby and flew home his final eighth in :11 3/5. Earnings still a bit of a question.

Ice Box Nick Zito

Pulpit—Spice Island, by Tabasco Cat

Getting beaten a dozen lengths by Eskendereya is not a blot on the record anymore, and in fact is becoming commonplace. He is a horse on the improve, and is in good hands, and that makes him a legitimate threat in the Derby. But the six-week layoff still is a concern. Main difference between him and archrival Pleasant Prince is he already has the earnings to get in the Derby.

Awesome Act Jeremy Noseda

Awesome Again—Houdinis Honey, by Mr. Prospector

He stumbled at the start of the Wood, lost a shoe, and was victimized by a slow pace. Not sure if he wants to go 1 1/4 miles, but he's a talented horse and certainly deserves another chance. He needs to have his move timed right, and if he gets the trip he should improve big-time and could be ready to peak on Derby Day.

Endorsement Shannon Ritter

Distorted Humor—Charmed Gift, by A.P. Indy

It’s starting to look as if the only way to beat Eskendereya is from the back of the pack and hope the pace is fast enough to soften him up. That doesn’t bode well for this colt’s style of running, but he is getting very good right now. He could be one of five WinStar horses in the Derby if Super Saver moves forward at Oaklawn and Drosselmeyer runs in the Coolmore Lexington Stakes and picks up sufficient earnings.

Dublin D. Wayne Lukas

Afleet Alex—Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird

Can he get a clean trip in the Arkansas Derby? Can he stretch out to nine furlongs and still be effective? Those are the key questions that should be answered. A win or very strong second would move him up the list. Want to see him show signs that nine and 10 furlongs are within his range.

Odysseus Tom Albertrani

Malibu Moon—Persimmon Hill, by Conquistador Cielo

Have no idea what to expect from him on the Keeneland Polytrack in the Blue Grass. Schoolyard Dreams didn’t boost the Tampa Bay Derby form in the Wood, but who knows how good this horse is and how good he can be with maturity?

Noble’s Promise Ken McPeek

Cuvee—The Devil’s Trick, by Clever Trick

There is no reason why he shouldn’t be right there in the Arkansas Derby. He always is. Because it is only his second start of the year and first at 1 1/8 miles, he needs to run a strong final eighth and show he can keep going.

Mission Impazible Todd Pletcher

Unbridled’s Song—La Paz, by Hold Your Peace

So tough to choose among him and other Pletcher horses like Super Saver, Rule, and Aikenite. He does have the right running style, is improving at the right time, and has already secured his place in the Derby.

American Lion Eoin Harty

Tiznow—Storm Tide, by Storm Cat

Sorry, had to go to a baker’s dozen again this week. It’s difficult to get a true assessment of his Illinois Derby victory. He took advantage of a track and race that normally favors speed and defeated a horse with distance question marks. But you had to love the 11 1/4-length gap to third. Horses were coming home slowly all day, so his :13.07 final eighth was actually OK.

March 29, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

cdawahare@bloodhorse.com — Tue, 30 Mar 2010 02:33:00 GMT

A huge weekend is coming up that will decide just where the Southern California horses are. I’m letting horses like Caracortado, Alphie’s Bet, and Sidney’s Candy sort themselves out against Lookin At Lucky Saturday to see just which ones are leading Derby contenders. Another California horse who still can make a name for himself on dirt is Dave in Dixie, while Make Music For Me is heading to the Toyota Blue Stakes (gr. I). The intriguing horse in the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) is Skipshot, who has won his last three at Golden Gate and most recently worked five furlongs in :58 2/5 at Santa Anita.

We’ll also get a look at American Lion on the dirt for the first time in the Illinois Derby (gr. II). If he shows big improvement, he also will catapult back on the list. Backtalk is another intriguing horse heading for the Illinois Derby, as well as New York-bred Yawanna Twist, who ran a big race in the Gotham.

And we also have Jackson Bend trying to prove he can handle top horses going 1 1/8 miles, as he takes on Eskendereya again and Awesome Act in the Wood Memorial (gr. I).

Aikenite, who has been all but forgotten, has a chance to stamp himself as a legitimate Derby contender with a big effort in the Blue Grass. And watch out for Paddy O’Prado in that race. This horse could be very live and looks about ready to storm onto the Derby scene.

I hated taking Pleasant Prince off the list, but I had to make room for Endorsement and Mission Impazible, and he might be iffy with earnings and no more races before the Derby. The other Ken Ramsey horse, Dean’s Kitten, looked good visually winning the Lane’s End Stakes (gr. II) over Northern Giant, but he was beaten 33 lengths in his only dirt start. Connemara lost way too much ground in the Lane’s End and could only finish a well-beaten third. I have no idea where he stands now and what to make of him, but wouldn’t be surprised to see him run much better than expected in the Derby in his first try on dirt. He hasn’t run big speed figures, but don’t give up on him just yet.

Eskendereya Todd Pletcher

Giant's Causeway—Aldebaran Light, by Seattle Slew

With the Florida Derby finish enhancing his reputation even further, he heads into the Wood Memorial as an overwhelming favorite and will provide a good gauge on the merits of his main foe Awesome Act. He’s been freshened and should be sitting on another huge effort.

Lookin at Lucky Bob Baffert

Smart Strike—Private Feeling, by Belong to Me

Baffert said he’s 90% sure he’ll stay home for the Santa Anita Derby. It’s not your typical preparation going into the Derby, bouncing back and forth between synthetic and dirt, but the timing is right and he’ll get tested by some new faces. He definitely is the most solid and dependable horse on the Derby trail.

Interactif Todd Pletcher

Broken Vow—Broad Pennant, by Broad Brush

Keeping him where he is for now, even though he hasn’t worked since the San Felipe. He is, however, listed as a probable starter for the Blue Grass Stakes. Would have rather seen him on dirt, but he at least should get a good prep out of it and is certainly good enough to win it. Next step is to see a work from him.

Awesome Act Jeremy Noseda

Awesome Again—Houdinis Honey, by Mr. Prospector

If he can be competitive with Eskendereya in the Wood Memorial, he will establish himself as one of the top contenders for the Derby. Remember, a slight bounce off the Gotham is understandable. If he shows enough to move forward he could be on course to peak on Derby Day.

Ice Box Nick Zito

Pulpit—Spice Island, by Tabasco Cat

The key will be the six-week layoff and whether he can make up a dozen lengths on Eskendereya. He does have the foundation, with three nine-furlong races this year and five career starts at a mile or longer. With all the speed shaping up, the Derby could set up well for him.

Dublin D. Wayne Lukas

Afleet Alex—Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird

He worked six furlongs in a sharp 1:11 3/5 and should have no excuses in the Arkansas Derby, as long as he gets a decent ride and an uneventful trip this time. Then we’ll know once and for all just how good he is. He’s been asked to do an awful lot in his last two races.

Endorsement Shannon Ritter

Distorted Humor—Charmed Gift, by A.P. Indy

Could it be, with all their big 3-year-olds, this is WinStar’s main Kentucky Derby prospect, coming out of the woodwork to blow away undefeated Conveyance in the Sunland Park Derby and looking awfully good doing it? He’s always been well regarded and loved his inner splits of :23 3/5 quarters and solid come-home time, doing it with relative ease. This is a great break for Shannon Ritter, former exercise rider of Victory Gallop, Menifee, and Distorted Humor.

Noble’s Promise Ken McPeek

Cuvee—The Devil’s Trick, by Clever Trick

He’s a tough competitor who must be respected wherever he runs, but he still has to show signs he will be able to handle 1 1/4 miles, especially off only two starts at 3 and a pedigree top heavy with speed influences. He will need to depend heavily on his strong tail-female family, which is all Darby Dan stamina and class.

Odysseus Tom Albertrani

Malibu Moon—Persimmon Hill, by Conquistador Cielo

He received a form boost when Exhi, whom he destroyed by 15 lengths in his Tampa allowance victory, came back to win the Rushaway Stakes. It has been decided to run him the Blue Grass, which is an excellent spot for him to use strictly as a prep. It will allow him to get another race in and not have to go all out. He certainly doesn’t have to win.

Schoolyard Dreams Derek Ryan

Stephen Got Even—Hear This, by Prospector’s Music

Turned in yet another sharp work at Tampa, drilling a half in :46 4/5, indicating he bounced out of the Tampa Bay Derby in excellent shape. The Illinois Derby should be a good spot for him, and more improvement is expected. In addition to picking up much-needed earnings, he basically needs to show he can put good horses away after having them on the ropes. (Late news has come in that he will now run in the Wood Memorial).

Mission Impazible Todd Pletcher

Unbridled’s Song—La Paz, by Hold Your Peace

His Louisiana Derby victory was no surprise off his sneaky good fourth in the Southwest Stakes, in which he re-rallied in the stretch. He did the same at Fair Grounds, although the leaders looked as if they were backing up as well. Fair Grounds 3-year-old form has not held up all that well in out-of-town stakes, so we really don’t know who he beat. Runner-up was stretching out from sprints. But there is something about this horse I’ve liked and he is improving quickly at the right time.

Super Saver Todd Pletcher

Maria's Mon—Supercharger, by A.P. Indy

From a WinStar perspective, it’s a toss-up between him and Rule. He gets on here because he still has one more opportunity to show what he can do rating off the pace. Although nothing has been decided, he most likely will head to the Arkansas Derby. He was my initial #1-ranked horse back in early December, so let’s see if he can do enough to get back to where he was.

March 22, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

cdawahare@bloodhorse.com — Tue, 23 Mar 2010 00:33:00 GMT

With so many one-dimensional speed horses this year, many of whom were in the Top 12, I’m making a major overhaul this week, dropping several of those types who look like they will be at a major disadvantage going 1 1/4 miles with a contentious pace. Horses like Conveyance and Sidney’s Candy can get back on if they show enough in their next start to indicate the Derby might be within their reach. We’re concentrating more now on horses who have shown they have the running style, pedigree, fitness, class, and toughness to handle a race like the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I). I’ve been unable to sort out the California horses, so I’ve decided to let them sort themselves out April 3 in the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I), and watch for Dave in Dixie and possibly American Lion on the dirt somewhere. And I’m keeping a close eye on Drosselmeyer, Stay Put, and Mission Impazible in the March 27 Louisiana Derby (gr. II). Even a come-from-the-clouds closer like Ron the Greek bears watching if he can get a fast pace. Drosselmeyer, especially, has a lot of room for improvement.

In a bit of irony, three of Nick Zito’s best 3-year-olds—Ice Box, Jackson Bend, and Our Dark Knight, an impressive maiden winner March 20—are all out of Tabasco Cat mares. It was Tabasco Cat who defeated Zito’s Kentucky Derby winner Go For Gin in the 1994 Preakness and Belmont (both gr. I; Go For Gin was second in both races), costing him the Triple Crown. The other irony is that this is the 25th anniversary of Spend a Buck’s Derby, and Ice Box’s second dam is a half-sister to Spend a Buck.

Eskendereya Todd Pletcher

Giant's Causeway—Aldebaran Light, by Seattle Slew

Normally don’t like horses having their schedule changed at the last minute, but the Wood (gr. I) looks to be a much better spot for him. He’ll get tested and will be tighter and tougher coming back in four weeks instead of six. Extremely flattered by Fla. Derby 1-2 finishers, whom he demolished in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth (gr. II), but the pace that day was much slower.

Lookin at Lucky Bob Baffert

Smart Strike—Private Feeling, by Belong to Me

Baffert said he’s now considering staying home for the Santa Anita Derby. He’s had his tough race in the Rebel (gr. III), and a great learning experience as well, and now just needs to get a good conditioning race to set him up for the Derby.

Interactif Todd Pletcher

Broken Vow—Broad Pennant, by Broad Brush

He can adapt to any kind of pace and can handle any kind of surface. He’s found a way to get beat when pressing the pace, but can come home when taken back. If he can sit back and time his closing kick, he’s going to be dangerous.

Awesome Act Jeremy Noseda

Awesome Again—Houdinis Honey, by Mr. Prospector

He’ll get his class test against Eskendereya and several others in the Wood, and he only needs to duplicate the high cruising speed and turn of foot he displayed in the Gotham (gr. III); he doesn’t have to win to be ready to peak on Derby Day.

Ice Box Nick Zito

Pulpit—Spice Island, by Tabasco Cat

Gave warning of what was to come with big move on the turn in Fountain of Youth. Took advantage of fast pace in Florida Derby and came home in :36 2/5, despite not changing leads—looked as if he was running too fast to change leads. Appeared beaten, but won with final late burst. He’s coming around in much the same manner as Strike the Gold.

Noble’s Promise Ken McPeek

Cuvee—The Devil’s Trick, by Clever Trick

I’m not quite seeing a horse yet who I think can win the Kentucky Derby in his third start of the year. He will need a strong finish in the Arkansas Derby and for that stamina-laden tail-female family to come out and neutralize all that speed in the rest of his pedigree. But the talent, consistency, and determination are there.

Dublin D. Wayne Lukas

Afleet Alex—Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird

He’s had his chances and his excuses; now it’s time to deliver. If he is going to prove himself to be a legitimate Derby horse, he has to step it up a notch. He needs a good ride and a good trip. He hasn’t shown the quickness you like to see, and maybe 10 furlongs isn’t his game. But he has one more race to show that he’s a legitimate contender.

Odysseus Tom Albertrani

Malibu Moon—Persimmon Hill, by Conquistador Cielo

The main concern with him at this point is the indecision whether to run him again or train up to the Derby. No time for indecision at this late date. Going into the Derby off a 7-week layoff and no 1 1/8-mile races is asking a lot. If he’s not physically up to another race, how can he handle the Derby with so little foundation? His placing on here will depend on their decision.

Schoolyard Dreams Derek Ryan

Stephen Got Even—Hear This, by Prospector’s Music

Hesitated at first to put him on because his dam was strictly a 6f speedball and he couldn’t put those horses away in the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. III), but he’s only one of very few who have shown an explosive turn of foot. With three straight bullet works and two big races at Tampa, he should be dead-fit and still has a lot of room for improvement.

Super Saver Todd Pletcher

Maria's Mon—Supercharger, by A.P. Indy

He’ll get a lot out of the Tampa Bay Derby, but it’s the same old tune: he has to show he can be effective from off the pace. Decided to drop the pure speed horses for now, but keeping him on because I believe he can rate if given the chance. But time is running out. Stablemate Rule had every chance to rate with that fast pace, but wasn’t taken in hand and got cooked battling for the lead. And he’s run out of opportunities.

Discreetly Mine Todd Pletcher

Mineshaft—Pretty Discreet, by Private Account

Yet another Pletcher horse who still has to show he’s versatile enough to win from off the pace. He’s far from a speedball and does rate kindly, so, like Super Saver, giving him one last chance in the La. Derby, because he’s already shown he doesn’t need the lead.

Caracortado Mike Machowsky

Cat Dreams—Mons Venus, by Maria’s Mon

San Felipe didn’t set up for him at all. Ran a strong race, but couldn’t match strides with Interactif in the final furlong. Did lose more ground on the turn, so all in all it was a good enough effort to keep him in Top (Baker's dozen) 12.

Pleasant Prince Wesley Ward

Indy King—Archduchess, by Pleasant Tap

He’s developing quite a rivalry with Ice Box. Appeared to have him beaten in the shadow of the wire, but let it slip away. Both earned a solid 99 Beyer Speed Figure. It’s hard to know where they fit, because they’re so far behind Eskendereya, with a lot of lengths to make up. The (two-second) faster pace in the Florida Derby helped a great deal.

March 15, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

cdawahare@bloodhorse.com — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 18:14:00 GMT

Eskendereya Todd Pletcher

Giant's Causeway—Aldebaran Light, by Seattle Slew

It’s OK if he regresses a little in the March 20 Florida Derby, but he still should run another big race. Pletcher has been working him easy, latest being 5f in 1:02 2/5. Stablemate Rule will be the one to beat if he runs. Pletcher would then have to train both up to the Derby off a six-week layoff.

Lookin at Lucky Bob Baffert

Smart Strike—Private Feeling, by Belong to Me

After a performance like his in the Rebel, at only 80% cranked, how can you not admire his determination and professionalism and his ability to overcome adversity? This is an exceptional horse who just wants to win. And kudos to Garrett Gomez for an amazing recovery and keeping cool, letting the horse gather himself. We’ll wait until the Fla. Derby to see if he replaces Eskendereya on top spot.

Interactif Todd Pletcher

Broken Vow—Broad Pennant, by Broad Brush

Been waiting to put him back on here; just needed the chance to prove he’s a Derby horse. There’s no reason why he won’t perform just as well on the dirt, having already won over it. He was a little aggressive early, but settled beautifully and closed into a blazing final three-sixteenths. Would love to see final prep on dirt, but Pletcher is loaded in all those races.

Awesome Act Jeremy Noseda

Awesome Again—Houdinis Honey, by Mr. Prospector

Moving him way up despite the weak competition in the Gotham because he has so much upside and did so many things right. Yes, he’ll need to step up in the Wood Memorial, but if he survives the Euro bounce and runs big again, the sky’s the limit.

Odysseus Tom Albertrani

Malibu Moon—Persimmon Hill, by Conquistador Cielo

Have no idea what to make of the Tampa Bay Derby. Closing fractions were slow and the entire field was separated by only 3 3/4 lengths, but for sheer grit and the ability to hit a hole with a vengeance, that was awfully impressive. Looked like a beaten horse, and it wasn’t until he changed leads that he hit another gear.

Super Saver Todd Pletcher

Maria's Mon—Supercharger, by A.P. Indy

He should get a lot out of the Tampa Bay Derby. He got stuck on his left lead and still fought back gamely over a track he might not have cared for. But, again, he needs to get off the lead, and time is running out. Something’s got to give with him and Rule or WinStar could have two horses at each other’s throat.

Rule Todd Pletcher

Roman Ruler—Rockcide, by Personal Flag

Decision on the Florida Derby was scheduled to be made March 15. Drilled a solid 5f in 1:01 1/5. Wherever he runs, this is the time to finally take him back; what else is new? No reason to think he won’t be as effective rating off the pace, but has to show it. He still has a lot of improvement left in him.

Dublin D. Wayne Lukas

Afleet Alex—Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird

He didn’t take the necessary move forward, but went five-wide into the first turn and made an ill-advised premature move when Nakatani tried to box in Lookin At Lucky, who clipped his heels. Inner splits of :23 1/5 and :24 were too fast. Switched to his left lead late, indicating he was getting tired. He deserves another shot, but needs s smarter ride than that.

Noble’s Promise Ken McPeek

Cuvee—The Devil’s Trick, by Clever Trick

You won’t find many horses as tough and honest as this guy, and he’d have a heck of a record if it wasn’t for Lookin at Lucky. But now it’s time for him to find the winner’s circle again; too many heartbreaking defeats and he needs to show he can open up on horses once he gets the lead.

Sidney’s Candy John Sadler

Candy Ride—Fair Exchange, by Storm Cat

He’s fast and he has the ability to run anyone chasing him into the ground. Four six-furlong works helped give him plenty of bottom stretching out to two turns. Came home very fast and was particularly strong galloping out, but he likely won’t get that soft a pace again.

Discreetly Mine Todd Pletcher

Mineshaft—Pretty Discreet, by Private Account

You never know how he’s going to work. Breezed a slow five furlongs in 1:04 1/5, his second easy work since the Risen Star. Obviously, he needs to crank it up for the March 27 Louisiana Derby, which is coming up fast.

Caracortado Mike Machowsky

Cat Dreams—Mons Venus, by Maria’s Mon

He ran OK, but didn’t have any excuses. He had every chance at the head of the stretch, but the winner came home too fast for him after setting dawdling pace. He has to improve off that if he’s going to move on. The two horses he beat in the Robert B. Lewis ran badly in the San Felipe.

Conveyance Bob Baffert

Indian Charlie—Emptythetill, by Holy Bull

Yes, getting desperate having a tie, but this is not a particularly strong Top 12 and it’s difficult leaving an undefeated horse who’s won on dirt and trained by Baffert off the list, even if he is taking the easy route in New Mexico and is one of way-too-many talented speed horses this year. He’d be a lot more dangerous in most other years. Still looking for that one explosive closer.

March 8, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

cdawahare@bloodhorse.com — Mon, 08 Mar 2010 19:03:00 GMT

Eskendereya Todd Pletcher

Giant's Causeway—Aldebaran Light, by Seattle Slew

Some huge offers are coming in for the colt -- for part-interest, half-interest, and for the whole horse. As Zayat put it, “It seems every serious player is making offers, but I’m not sure yet what I want to do, if anything.” Looks like a standout in Florida Derby.

Lookin at Lucky Bob Baffert

Smart Strike—Private Feeling, by Belong to Me

His 1:25 2/5 work made all those who were concerned forget his 1:15 2/5 work the previous week. It looks like Baffert will try him on the dirt in the Rebel if the weather cooperates. It’s a tough spot, but he needs a tough race, having only two Derby preps.

Super Saver Todd Pletcher

Maria's Mon—Supercharger, by A.P. Indy

Moving him back up after bullet 5f work in 1:00 3/5 and Pletcher’s decision to run him in the Tampa Derby Derby, which looks like a better spot than the Rebel. As it did for Street Sense, this race should get him fit running over that deep track.

Caracortado Mike Machowsky

Cat Dreams—Mons Venus, by Maria’s Mon

Worked a sharp five furlongs in :58 3/5 for the San Felipe. He’ll have to kick it up a notch against a deeper field, but with his running style, closing kick, and consistency, good luck trying to find a way to beat him.

Dublin D. Wayne Lukas

Afleet Alex—Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird

Lukas wasted no time putting him back on the work tab after the Southwest, drilling him a half in :48 2/5 and followed that up with a 5-furlong bullet work in :59 3/5, fastest of 56 works at the distance. He’ll take a lot of beating in the Rebel; Corey Nakatani named to ride.

Dave in Dixie John Sadler

Dixie Union—Risk, by Wavering Monarch

Can he catch Caracortado this time? Actually, it doesn’t matter as long as he’s closing again. He just needs to keep taking small steps forward and then save the big one for May 1. Would love to see him come East to prep on dirt; only question left to answer.

Rule Todd Pletcher

Roman Ruler—Rockcide, by Personal Flag

He’s the one Pletcher horse whose plans are still up in the air. He will run next in either the Florida Derby vs. Eskendereya or wait for the Wood Memorial. Will Pletcher actually run two of his big guns at Churchill off a six-week layoff?

Discreetly Mine Todd Pletcher

Mineshaft—Pretty Discreet, by Private Account

Finally breezed a half in :49 1/5, his first work since the Risen Star. Pletcher likely will run him back in the Louisiana Derby against stablemate Mission Impazible. Front-running tactics are over; time to get him off the lead.

Awesome Act Jeremy Noseda

Awesome Again—Houdinis Honey, by Mr. Prospector

Loved his race in the BC Juvenile Turf and loved his Gotham even more, especially his turn of foot. He didn’t beat much, but did it the right way. Took the lead while under wraps turning for home, with Leparoux sitting motionless. Euros not used to that, and he’ll be able to wait longer in the Wood.

Odysseus Tom Albertrani

Malibu Moon—Persimmon Hill, by Conquistador Cielo

He’ll get a big test going against Super Saver, as well as the Sam F. Davis Stakes 2nd- and 3rd-place finishers and any other shippers. If he passes this one, watch him vault right up near the top of most everyone’s list.

Alphie's Bet Alexis Barba

Tribal Rule—Miss Alphie, by Candi’s Gold

If you like Caracortado you have to like this guy, who’s still a big baby that’s just starting to figure things out and developing into a racehorse, physically and mentally. His final 3 furlongs in :36 flat, going wide on both turns in the Sham, was impressive.

Conveyance Bob Baffert

Indian Charlie—Emptythetill, by Holy Bull

Worked a half in :47 2/5. Baffert said all along he was leaning toward the Wood Memorial, but it looks as if he is now taking the easier route in the Sunland Park Derby, so we still won't know if he is true Derby material.

March 1, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

cdawahare@bloodhorse.com — Mon, 01 Mar 2010 18:28:00 GMT

Eskendereya Todd Pletcher

Giant's Causeway—Aldebaran Light, by Seattle Slew

So, where does he go from here? Monster wins on the Derby trail are nice, but you want to see his Fountain of Youth effort on the first Saturday in May. Hate the six weeks from the Fla. Derby, but it may actually help him, especially if he runs another corker.

Lookin at Lucky Bob Baffert

Smart Strike—Private Feeling, by Belong to Me

Eyebrows were raised after his un-Baffert-like 1:15 2/5 work, but Baffert said it was just what he was looking for and that the work was really 7 furlongs in 1:27 4/5. The champ silenced the doubters with a 7-furlong follow-up work in a bullet 1:25 1/5. Baffert has mentioned the Rebel as a possible next start. That would be quite a dirt initiation.

Dublin D. Wayne Lukas

Afleet Alex—Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird

Big move up this week. As mentioned in our last column, his five-eighths of a mile sustained run gets more impressive the more you watch it. Don’t know if 10 furlongs is ideal, but there is enough stamina to go along with his talent, running style, and physical prowess to suggest he will. He’ll get a stiff test in the Rebel, and if he runs big again, the sky’s the limit.

Caracortado Mike Machowsky

Cat Dreams—Mons Venus, by Maria’s Mon

The more you look at him the more you realize he’s as accomplished as any of them and has less to prove than most of them. Remember, he has won on dirt and has the perfect running style. There’s really nothing not to like.

Super Saver Todd Pletcher

Maria's Mon—Supercharger, by A.P. Indy

Pletcher decided to give him the extra week and run in the Rebel instead of the March 6 Gotham; tough spot first time back. He certainly doesn’t have to win, but needs to take back off the pace and show he can close. Wintering at the farm is a bit unusual, so he also has to prove he’s the same horse as last year. If he answers both questions, he’ll move back into the top 2 or 3. Still feel he has as much potential as any of them.

Discreetly Mine Todd Pletcher

Mineshaft—Pretty Discreet, by Private Account

Honestly don’t know where to put him, and won’t until he runs back. They practically handed him the Risen Star and he took advantage of it like a good horse will do. He needs to show he’s as effective from off the pace, but he’s rated before.

Rule Todd Pletcher

Roman Ruler—Rockcide, by Personal Flag

These top four Pletcher horses can drive you batty trying to figure out a Kentucky Derby-winning scenario for them. We keep harping on their running style, and despite their talent, they could wind up their own worst enemy. He has tremendous potential, but still needs to prove himself against better quality horses.

Dave in Dixie John Sadler

Dixie Union—Risk, by Wavering Monarch

Worked five furlongs in a sharp :59 3/5. Sadler has to decide whether he wants to run him and Sidney’s Candy in the March 13 San Felipe against Caracortado or go out of town with one of them. Can’t wait to see what he can do on dirt. That’s the only thing keeping him out of the top five.

Odysseus Tom Albertrani

Malibu Moon—Persimmon Hill, by Conquistador Cielo

He had a lot of people climb on his bandwagon after that Tampa Bay Downs allowance romp, and we’ll find out March 13 if it was justified in the Tampa Bay Derby. He appears to have it all, and now it’s just a matter of passing his class test.

Conveyance Bob Baffert

Indian Charlie—Emptythetill, by Holy Bull

He’ll skip the Rebel and go right to the Arkansas Derby or Wood Memorial, which looks like a good move. He’s already won two graded stakes around two turns, both at a mile, and you don’t want to give him too many 9f races.

Noble’s Promise Ken McPeek

Cuvee—The Devil’s Trick, by Clever Trick

He’ll have only two starts before the Derby, but built up a solid foundation as a 2-year-old. Rebel will be a tough task first time back and first time on dirt, but we’ll at least get an idea whether he’s a serious Derby horse.

American Lion Eoin Harty

Tiznow—Storm Tide, by Storm Cat

Feel as if we didn’t seen anything near his best in the Lewis, and Leparoux left a lot in the tank. Big decision is whether to run him in the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby or only once before the Derby, trying him on dirt in the March 28 Sunland Derby. Like Dave in Dixie, would love to see him on dirt.

February 22, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

cdawahare@bloodhorse.com — Mon, 22 Feb 2010 17:31:00 GMT

Eskendereya Todd Pletcher

Giant's Causeway—Aldebaran Light, by Seattle Slew

Been waiting since the Pilgrim for a breakout performance from him and he delivered big-time. With his action, cruising speed, pedigree, and ability to run horses into the ground, he can do it all. Final 3 furlongs in :36 2/5 was impressive. Just have to be careful he didn’t peak too early.

Lookin at Lucky Bob Baffert

Smart Strike—Private Feeling, by Belong to Me

With new stars developing every weekend he’s pretty much in limbo, trying to get sharp and fit for the March 13 San Felipe. Then it’s crunch time, with three weeks to the SA Derby and four weeks to the Kentucky Derby. Out of sight, out of mind, but he’s still the champ and a worthy one. Baffert said on"At the Races With Steve Byk" Monday he's also considering the Rebel Stakes.

Super Saver Todd Pletcher

Maria's Mon—Supercharger, by A.P. Indy

Most of his stablemates are way ahead of him and he has some catching up to do with little room for error. And he’s not going to have an easy time of it if he debuts in the March 6 Gotham. But that’s a perfect spot for him to take back off the pace, with Sidney’s Candy and Tiz Chrome likely heading that way.

Caracortado Mike Machowsky

Cat Dreams—Mons Venus, by Maria’s Mon

He seems out of place among the Pletcher, Baffert, and Lukas glitterati crowd, but until someone figures out how to beat him, he fits right in, and his blood is as blue as any of them. We’ll get a better line on him when he takes on the champ next.

Discreetly Mine Todd Pletcher

Mineshaft—Pretty Discreet, by Private Account

He ran to his works and 2-year-old form, controlling the Risen Star Stakes right from the start with dawdling fractions. Would rather have seen him sit off the pace, but no one wanted the lead and he rated kindly with his ears up the whole way. He’s already shown he can rate.

Rule Todd Pletcher

Roman Ruler—Rockcide, by Personal Flag

Now that things are heating up on the Derby trail, he has to show he can beat better quality horses in larger venues. As of now, Pletcher has a number of horses with similar running styles and they’re all extremely talented. Something’s gotta give.

Dave in Dixie John Sadler

Dixie Union—Risk, by Wavering Monarch

If you like Caracortado you have to like this colt, who was coming on strong in the Robert Lewis in only his third career start and first in almost three months. Strong female family and a relentless stretch run make him dangerous as the distances stretch out. Only question is dirt.

Dublin D. Wayne Lukas

Afleet Alex—Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird

Epiglottis surgery obviously worked, and he’s returned to his old form. He had to come from far back after a slow break and fighting the rider early, swung very wide into the stretch and was closing fast, but ran out of room with finish line at the sixteenth pole. His final quarter in :24 4/5 was solid considering three-quarter marker was well up on the turn.

Odysseus Tom Albertrani

Malibu Moon—Persimmon Hill, by Conquistador Cielo

Yes, he’s only won a maiden sprint and an allowance race at Tampa, but for sheer power, action, pedigree, and overall style, he’s one of the more visually impressive 3-year-olds seen all year, so ranking him high based on potential.

Noble’s Promise Ken McPeek

Cuvee—The Devil’s Trick, by Clever Trick

Now that he’s back working steadily he should be on a decent schedule, but with only two Derby preps likely. He’s as tough and honest as they come. He has a ton of speed in his pedigree, but stout tail-female line is carrying him.

Conveyance Bob Baffert

Indian Charlie—Emptythetill, by Holy Bull

Still have major doubts he can carry his speed 10 furlongs, with a contentious pace likely, but there’s something for being undefeated, and his Southwest was a big effort, cutting out wicked fractions from the 9-post. Like the way he dug in at the end when Dublin came charging up to him and was still in front at the regular finish line.

Buddy's Saint Bruce Levine

Saint Liam—Tuzia, by Blushing John

Where was Lezcano going? He was in a good spot before sending him into a hole that wasn’t there. He just needed a solid race, coming back at 1 1/8 miles, but timing-wise, this was a disaster, as he got little out of the race and now has to regroup. If he bounces out of it OK, the March 13 Tampa Bay Derby would at least give him two more preps, which he needs.

February 16th, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

cdawahare@bloodhorse.com — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 16:59:00 GMT

Buddy's Saint Bruce Levine

Saint Liam—Tuzia, by Blushing John

Pair of sharp six-furlong drills indicate he’s ready for a big effort in the Fountain of Youth. He has to show that his 101 Beyer Speed Figure in the Nashua was the norm and the 82 Beyer in the Remsen was the aberration.

Lookin at Lucky Bob Baffert

Smart Strike—Private Feeling, by Belong to Me

He’s back in steady training, up to a half-mile, and is still on target for the San Felipe Stakes. Baffert still has plenty of time to get him sharp and fit, which he’ll have to be with only two Kentucky Derby preps planned.

Super Saver Todd Pletcher

Maria's Mon—Supercharger, by A.P. Indy

He’s progressing in his training, breezing five furlongs in 1:01 2/5. Pletcher mentioned the March 6 Gotham Stakes as a possible first start back. Look for him to finally show he can be effective rating off the pace.

Rule Todd Pletcher

Roman Ruler—Rockcide, by Personal Flag

Love the efficiency of his stride. He’s gutsy, and has won on Belmont’s sweeping track, fast and sloppy surfaces on Delta Downs’ bullring track, and Tampa Bay Downs’ quirky surface. Needs to step up in class and learn how to rate off the lead.

Eskendereya Todd Pletcher

Giant's Causeway—Aldebaran Light, by Seattle Slew

Drilled five-eighths in 1:00 3/5 for the Fountain of Youth, second-fastest of 34 works at the distance. Unlike his last race, he should take back, as he did in his prior starts, and do what he does best—grind down his opponents.

Caracortado Mike Machowsky

Cat Dreams—Mons Venus, by Maria’s Mon

Here’s another feel-good story in the making. Cal-bred former claimer at Fairplex is now unbeaten in five starts after classy win in Robert B. Lewis. Showed great agility and an excellent turn of foot, and covers a lot of ground.

Jackson Bend Nick Zito

Hear No Evil—Sexy Stockings, by Tabasco Cat

He ran a big race in the Holy Bull, but needs to improve off it going 1 1/8 miles against a deeper, classier bunch in the Fountain of Youth. Zito has him sharp, and we’ll see how far his talent can take him.

Dave in Dixie John Sadler

Dixie Union—Risk, by Wavering Monarch

Been waiting for this colt to debut, and he turned in a big effort finishing a fast-closing second in Lewis. Had to come from last in a strung-out field, swung five-wide, and really kicked into gear the final sixteenth; perfect first start back.

Discreetly Mine Todd Pletcher

Mineshaft—Pretty Discreet, by Private Account

Pletcher could have run him in the Hutcheson, but opted to stretch him out in Risen Star, which is a good sign. His :59 1/5 bullet work three works back was huge, especially for Pletcher. Liked him a lot last year and have a gut feeling he’s sitting on a big one.

Pulsion Patrick Biancone

Include—Spring, by Stravisnky

Making his dirt debut in the Fountain of Youth. If works mean anything, he should relish it and turn in a huge effort. Taking a chance and putting him on the list based on that and his effort in the Norfolk Stakes. He’s been plagued with setbacks throughout his career and this could be his breakout race.

Ron the Greek Tom Amoss

Full Mandate—Flambe, by Fortunate Prospect

His late run from the clouds is not unusual at Fair Grounds, but he can’t expect to win like that with consistency. Yet he was visually impressive, with his long, powerful strides, and won with his ears pricked.

Drosselmeyer Bill Mott

Distorted Humor—Golden Ballet, by Moscow Ballet

Whether he ships to Fair Grounds or stays in Florida, Feb. 20 will be a big day for him as he attempts to step up in class and prove himself Derby material. Will this be the year the Kentucky Derby gods finally smile on Mott?

February 8th, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

cdawahare@bloodhorse.com — Mon, 08 Feb 2010 16:53:00 GMT

Buddy's Saint Bruce Levine

Saint Liam—Tuzia, by Blushing John

Some are knocking his big Beyer Speed Figure drop from the Nashua to the Remsen, but he was coming back in only three weeks after popping a 101 Beyer and figured to regress. Runner-up did come back to win Whirlaway Stakes.

Lookin at Lucky Bob Baffert

Smart Strike—Private Feeling, by Belong to Me

He missed some training due to a high white blood count, but got over it quickly and was back on the track in a couple of days. Baffert has mentioned the March 13 San Felipe as a possible debut, but was far from committal.

Super Saver Todd Pletcher

Maria's Mon—Supercharger, by A.P. Indy

He’s up to a half-mile in his breezes, going a half Jan. 31 in :48 3/5, and obviously is still a ways off from a race. As mentioned before, he has the talent and the pedigree, but he needs to learn how to rate off the pace.

Eskendereya Todd Pletcher

Giant's Causeway—Aldebaran Light, by Seattle Slew

Breezed an easy five furlongs in 1:02 2/5 for the Feb. 20 Fountain of Youth. Zayat Stables, which also has Derby hopeful Macias heading for the (Feb. 15) Southwest, is hoping to get back to Churchill after second-place finish last year.

Jackson Bend Nick Zito

Hear No Evil—Sexy Stockings, by Tabasco Cat

Zito keeping him sharp with :47 1/5 half-mile drill, second-fastest of 51 works. Fountain of Youth will be a big test for him, stretching out to 1 1/8 miles against a tough, classy field. It’s important for him to be running strongly at the end.

Interactif Todd Pletcher

Broken Vow—Broad Pennant, by Broad Brush

Still believe he should be put back on dirt or at least synthetic based on his pedigree, and revert back to the come-from-behind running style that won him two stakes last year. He’s now lost two straight stalking the pace.

William's Kitten Mike Maker

Kitten's Joy—Blush, by Menifee

Breezed solid half in :48 for Fountain of Youth, and should relish the stretch-out to nine furlongs. He not only needs to be closing fast he must be competitive at the to show he can run with these horses. Changing leads would help.

Rule Todd Pletcher

Roman Ruler--Rockcide, by Personal Flag

Classy colt with a beautiful stride, but another who has to show he’s not a one-dimensional speed horse, although he did come from off the pace in his first two career starts sprinting. Game and handles any kind of track.

Tiz Chrome Bob Baffert

Tiznow—Woodland Shadow, by Woodman

Baffert likely will keep him in California for the rescheduled Robert B. Lewis Feb. 13, but he has been known to change his mind. Postponement of the race was disappointing, as it’s time to see what he can do going two turns.

American Lion Eoin Harty

Tiznow—Storm Tide, by Storm Cat

Another who has to wait an additional week to make his two-turn debut after cancellation of Feb. 6 Santa Anita card. Harty, like Baffert with Tiz Chrome, had his colt primed and ready, and this will throw off his schedule.

Ron the Greek Tom Amoss

Full Mandate—Flambe, by Fortunate Prospect

It’s still hard to know what to make of him. As he steps up in class, he can’t count on winning from as far back as he came in the Lecomte. But he was impressive from a visual standpoint, and we’ll go by that for now.

Dublin D. Wayne Lukas

Afleet Alex—Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird

Combination of successful surgery for an entrapped epiglottis, several solid works, and an unproven group of 3-year-olds at Oaklawn brings him back on the list, based mainly on his strong Hopeful score and physical attributes.

February 1st, 2010

cdawahare@bloodhorse.com — Tue, 02 Feb 2010 01:14:00 GMT

Buddy's Saint Bruce Levine

Saint Liam—Tuzia, by Blushing John

Staying sharp for debut in Fountain of Youth with pair of 5-furlong works in :59 3/5. Remsen form hasn’t held up, with subpar efforts by Homeboykris and Citrus Kid, but he did beat them easily and won with something left.

Lookin at Lucky Bob Baffert

Smart Strike—Private Feeling, by Belong to Me

If he debuts in San Felipe, it would give him only two Derby preps and keep the unknown dirt factor going. But he is a very late foal (May 27), has a good foundation, and Baffert is going to play it cool with him.

Super Saver Todd Pletcher

Maria's Mon—Supercharger, by A.P. Indy

Pletcher’s horses all seem determined to get the lead, even late-closing Aikenite. He’s used his speed well, but that’s not the way you want to get him to the Derby. He’s nowhere near a race after vacation on the farm.

Winslow Homer Tony Dutrow

Unbridled's Song—Summer Raven, by Summer Squall

Showed a good deal of professionalism in the Holy Bull, waiting patiently while boxed in along the rail. Dutrow didn’t exactly exude confidence sending him a flat mile, so expect further improvement going back to two turns.

Eskendereya Todd Pletcher

Giant's Causeway—Aldebaran Light, by Seattle Slew

It’ll be interesting to see how Pletcher juggles his 3-year-olds. Not much more to say about him than what was said last week. He is another who wound up on the lead in his last, despite never being close to lead prior to that race.

Interactif Todd Pletcher

Broken Vow—Broad Pennant, by Broad Brush

He’s a gamble, considering Pletcher feels he’s a better horse on the grass. But with his pedigree and a victory already on dirt, the feeling is that he’s simply a very good horse and will somehow wind up in the Derby.

Jackson Bend Nick Zito

Hear No Evil—Sexy Stockings, by Tabasco Cat

Best part about the Holy Bull was that he wasn’t being pushed hard in the final sixteenth and did it all pretty much on his own. You can bet Zito has left a lot in the tank. Now we’ll just have to see how far he wants to go.

William's Kitten Mike Maker

Kitten's Joy—Blush, by Menifee

Many look at him as the proverbial bridesmaid, always closing and never getting there, but he ran a big race in the Holy Bull, dropping back to one turn, and was running hard down the lane despite never changing leads.

Rule Todd Pletcher

Roman Ruler--Rockcide, by Personal Flag

Yet another Pletcher horse that apparently wants the lead. Obviously, something has to give, and Pletcher likely will try to teach these horses how to rate off the pace. This colt was right at the top of the list on the farm.

Tiz Chrome Bob Baffert

Tiznow—Woodland Shadow, by Woodman

We’ll find out more about him in this weekend’s Robert B. Lewis when he goes two turns for the first time and moves up in class against much better horses. He just needs to be running on well at the wire. Drilled a sharp five furlongs in :59 1/5.

American Lion Eoin Harty

Tiznow—Storm Tide, by Storm Cat

Harty bypassed the CashCall Futurity and gave him some time to prepare for the Lewis. He also will be stretching out to two turns for the first time, and a victory here will make him a serious Derby contender.

Ron the Greek Tom Amoss

Full Mandate—Flambe, by Fortunate Prospect

Had a tough time deciding whether to put him on or Maximus Ruler, who probably ran a better race in the LeComte considering how the race shaped up. But there were things to like about him other than his closing punch.

January 25th, 2010

cdawahare@bloodhorse.com — Mon, 25 Jan 2010 19:45:00 GMT

Buddy's Saint Bruce Levine

Saint Liam—Tuzia, by Blushing John

Showed he can run a horse into the ground early and draw off and showed he can blast by horses on the turn and draw off. Also showed in his debut he can scrap. Not bothered by slow time in Remsen, coming back in three weeks off 101 Beyer Speed Figure and running on dead track; figured to bounce. He's been working brilliantly in Florida. Big, beautiful stride; bred to stay; dam a half-sister to Midway Road.

Lookin at Lucky Bob Baffert

Smart Strike—Private Feeling, by Belong to Me

The Machine; the consummate pro; the champ. He can beat you in many ways and knows how to win. He¹s a physical standout and may even be better with blinkers. He¹d be ranked No.1 if he had any kind of dirt form, which is sounding too familiar these days. Not a lot of stamina in female family.

Super Saver Todd Pletcher

Maria's Mon—Supercharger, by A.P. Indy

Had him ranked No 1 on an early list, but when a 2-year-old goes off to the farm for a couple of months it's wise to take a wait-and-see attitude and watch him work a few times before considering putting him back on top. Had his first 3f breeze Jan. 24, which is a step in right direction. Still like him a lot, and just need to see him rate off the pace.

Winslow Homer Tony Dutrow

Unbridled's Song—Summer Raven, by Summer Squall

Three straight wins at three different tracks in three different states. Like the way he made a couple of runs stuck in traffic and was still on cruise control nearing the quarter pole in the Holy Bull (gr. III). Split horses with authority; final quarter was a slow 26 1/5, but times and splits mean little at Gulfstream. His stride is very similar to Unbridled's Song's, but he appears to be more versatile in running style. He no doubt has tremendous potential.

Eskendereya Todd Pletcher

Giant's Causeway—Aldebaran Light, by Seattle Slew

Good bounce-back race in Gulfstream allowance, but needs to return to off-the-pace style of running. Horse he beat (Thank U Phillippe) ran well in the Holy Bull. Sensational pedigree loaded with class and stamina. He has long, powerful strides that can grind his opponents into the ground. It's hard to find any faults with him; just needs to be tested against better horses.

Interactif Todd Pletcher

Broken Vow—Broad Pennant, by Broad Brush

Yes, he's been racing on grass, but he won his career debut on dirt and then was cooked by blazing fractions in the Sanford (gr. III). Believe stretch-out improved him as much as grass. He was too close to the pace in the BC Juvenile Turf. He's a classy individual with a big kick when taken back and allowed to make one run. Pedigree is mostly all dirt; third dam is Personal Ensign. Watch out for him in April 3 Santa Anita Derby (gr. I).

William's Kitten Mike Maker

Kitten's Joy—Blush, by Menifee

Solid stretch runner, with a late-closing second in the Ky. Jockey Club (gr. II), followed by a good third in the Holy Bull, in which he was dropping back to a one-turn mile and never changed leads. He's shifty and showed his explosive acceleration on the turn winning off-the-turf Sunday Silence Stakes. His Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) was better than it looked on paper, getting parked way out in the middle of the track turning for home.

Jackson Bend Nick Zito

Hear No Evil—Sexy Stockings, by Tabasco Cat

Lost little stature in his second-place finish in Holy Bull, breaking from the outside post and racing wide all the way, but his pedigree on both sides has stamina question marks. He has the ability, but we'll have to take it one race at a time as he stretches out. Jockey Jeremy Rose needs to learn more about him, as he lost control of him briefly after turning for home. He had every chance to win, but was simply outrun in the final furlong.

Rule Todd Pletcher

Roman Ruler--Rockcide, by Personal Flag

Hard to go by his two scores at Delta Downs, but he is another WinStar colt who has a beautiful stride and a look of class about him. Ran a gutsy race in the Jackpot (gr. III) after romping in the prep, but like Super Saver, he needs to show he can rate off the pace. Dam is a half-sister to Funny Cide.

Tiz Chrome Bob Baffert

Tiznow—Woodland Shadow, by Woodman

Normally wouldn't put a horse in the Top 12 who hasn't been beyond 6 1/2 furlongs, but this colt has been extremely impressive in his two starts and is bred to stay. Like the way Baffert is working him 6- and 7-furlongs for stretch-out in Feb. 6 Robert Lewis Stakes (gr. II). He runs hard and Baffert has compared him to Silver Charm.

Ron the Greek Tom Amoss

Full Mandate—Flambe, by Fortunate Prospect

Have fallen for this type of explosive stretch runner before at Fair Grounds, and the LeComte (gr. III) was set up for him, but love his stride and the amount of ground he covers and the way he won with his ears pricked. He's turned in big stretch runs at Hoosier, Delta Downs, Remington Park, and Fair Grounds, so he obviously handles any kind of track.

American Lion Eoin Harty

Tiznow—Storm Tide, by Storm Cat

Training brilliantly for his stretch-out in the Robert Lewis. He had to work hard in the Hollywood Prevue (gr. III) after maiden romp at Keeneland, but beat a good horse in Get My Fix. He handles all kinds of synthetics, but who knows about dirt? Not an abundance of stamina in his female family; second dam, City Band, won the Golden Rod and Oak Leaf at 2.

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