March 22, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

re: March 22, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Vale of York — Tue, 30 Mar 2010 10:30:19 GMT

El Kabong

Coldfacts isn't coming to this blog any more. See his post dated 3/28 10:28 am. Coldfacts if you see this, I hope you keep coming here. I enjoy your posts. Better yet, email me at packcardman@yahoo.com

re: March 22, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

El Kabong — Mon, 29 Mar 2010 17:56:51 GMT

Cold Facts

Again, use your common sense. 22.96, 22.98 and 22.99 combined with the 23.3 are more accurately recorded in my world as 23+. 22+ would not have been as representative of the truth. You will notice that on 47 I did not put a plus. It may have been more accurate to just put 46 + but not by much. I avoided the others so as not to bore the world with the minutia of the mundane, but I will gladly serve it up for you. If your intent was the truth, you should have asked for my method before applying your hammer to my remarks in kind. Instead you went headlong into some long winded twisting tale of historical revision of the ages.If you feel you have been respectful to most out here with the nature of your high horse replies, you are most delusional.expl. "I don't know where you are getting your facts but you are way off." (your words, not mine)No need to apologize, I know you. Your handicapping skills are enjoyable part of these discussions, but your standard for manners are in need of refinement.

re: March 22, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

RiverCitySmitty — Mon, 29 Mar 2010 13:37:19 GMT

Good race by Win Star`s 4th string horse who punched his ticket yesterday @ Sunland easily beating highly touted Conveyance.

Best horse to likely come

up short in earnings this year to me is Drosselmeyer. Maybe they can take a shot in the Lexington in a few weeks. Drosselmeyer could be joined by Eskendereya after next week`s Wood.

Slew: The locals disappointed in the LaD. The track did appear "souped up" which favors those closer to the pace. No real excuses though except perhaps for Drosselmeyer who seemed to be kept snug on the rail for too long.

re: March 22, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Dave — Mon, 29 Mar 2010 01:12:31 GMT

If Interactif runs big, first or second, in his next race (Bluegrass) look out!

re: March 22, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Forbidden Apple — Sun, 28 Mar 2010 23:48:26 GMT

Ranagulzion,

You asked for the Pletcher bashing when you claimed Quality Road HOY for 2010, Eskendereya a triple crown winner and a small field in the KY Derby because of Pletcher's army of donkeys. Are you a teenager? What's your recent spin on Connemara and Discreetly Mine? It must be that they ran good in your mind, just like Rachel and Rule. Thank you for all of the laughs.

re: March 22, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Coldfacts — Sun, 28 Mar 2010 14:28:00 GMT

El Kabong,

My response to your post regarding the typical KD 2F, 4F, 6F, & 8F splits was neither to offend nor an attempt at calling you out. You did not specified how you arrived at your figures. Consequently, no comparative fact check could be conducted on your figures. Going forward I suggest you specify the formula used to arrive at your figures. Instead of politely highlighting the period used in you computation you have responded with a rather confused justification. You have done just as bad a job with your respond as being impolite.

Your post highlighted what you determined to be the typical KD splits for 2F, 4F, 6F, & 8F. Your response only addressed only the 6F splits. A proper response would have contained support for all the figures you highlighted. Could it be that those are only figures that are close to those you highlighted? Let’s use the six years you used to determine that the Derby 6F split is 1:11 plus to calculate the average for the other splits:

2009 - 22.98, 47.23, 1:37.49 (Sloppy Track)

2008 - 23.30, 47.04, 1:36.56 (Fast Track)

2007 - 22.96, 46.26, 1:37.04 (Drying Out Track)

2006 - 22.63, 46.07, 1:37.02 ( Fast Track)

2005 - 22.28, 45.38, 1:35.88 (Fast Track)

2004 - 22.99, 46.73, 1:37.35 (Sloppy Track)

Your policy is to focus of the splits that are recorded the most during this period. Using this policy the typical split for each of the categories would be as follows:

2F – 22 seconds plus (22 plus seconds appears the most)

4F - 46 seconds plus (46 plus seconds appears the most)

8F - 1:37 seconds plus (1:37 plus seconds appears the most)

In your initial post on the fractions you listed the typical fractions as for 2F & 4F as 23+ and 47. Now, using your policy of focusing on the times recorded the most in the last six years, these splits’ should be 22+ and 46+. Your initial post also listed the 8F split as 1:37 plus. Using your policy the 8F split is in fact 1:37 plus. If your policy is adopted, you were right in two of the four categories.

In 2004 and 2009 the KD was contested on sloppy tracks. The 2004 Smarty Jones Derby recorded a final time of 2:04 plus. The Street Sense Derby was contested on a track that was drying out from rain the previous day. I have no need to advise that the times on sloppy tracks are normally slower as the race progresses. Many horses do no perform at their best on theses surfaces. I understand your policy but I do believe a simple average is the better approach as it includes all the times irrespective of track conditions.

Ranagulzion,

From the above you can appreciate that using El Kabong’s policy, he is wrong on the 2F and 4F splits. His policy ignores the tack condition under which some of times were recorded. A simple average captures all the variables as against the adaption of the time most recorded for a particular period. You continue to align yourself with those who are short on substance when you have an opportunity to join the camp of the Coldfacts. “To each his own” This is my final post for the season. Good luck in the derby and I hope Mr. P get of zero. I hope you took my advice and stepped to the bank with MI.

re: March 22, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Ranagulzion — Sun, 28 Mar 2010 13:08:03 GMT

COLDFACTS,

Congratulations on the positive outcome of the "brain-tickling" math problem you set us regarding the LA Derby. Mission Impazable's win makes you look like Professor Coldfacts ...maybe we'll have to give you your deserved title on here Bro. My apologies to you for trivializing the exercise ...anyway I myself am on record here as predicting a huge step forward for this colt under Rajiv Maragh.

Regarding Hotep, I guess the less said about that one the better for your reputation but I wont apologise for keeping you grounded on those odd "wild & crazy" upsetter predictions. Keep up the good work Pal ...you're a good sport. I do enjoy rumbling with you ...unlike some others we know, you have a thick skin.

re: March 22, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Slew — Sun, 28 Mar 2010 12:26:41 GMT

There were so many "Kittens" running last year. Now Dean's turns up a winner. Thought I'd just put velvet saddles and chipmunk jockeys on my cats, and let them loose. Still couldn't decide which would win! As I bid the Greek adieu, I still haven't formed any impressions except for Lookin At Lucky and Dublin leading my list. Still like Mendip, but I don't know if he'll come to the US. Here's hoping for the best from Backtalk. Rivercity: Cash Refund won the 6f sprint in 1:09.13, so Backtalk's work time of 1:09.6 looks honest (on a souped up track). At this point, the best I can do is bury my head in the sand until May 1st, see who takes Kentucky, and then decide.

re: March 22, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Matthew W — Sun, 28 Mar 2010 01:24:22 GMT

Ain't Easy Bein Good--How many pro ride years, two??? No way can you spot a trend off of just a couple of years--fact is they have been winning on dirt from out here, wanna toss Lookin At Lucky? Be my guest! Too early to spot a trend--I hope they get rid of the stuff but we're stuck with it for now--the track surfaces are "fake" but the horses are real....

re: March 22, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

harry — Sat, 27 Mar 2010 23:29:06 GMT

steve you were right on about mission impazable make room on your list

re: March 22, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

El Kabong — Sat, 27 Mar 2010 18:14:25 GMT

TIme to put it on the line for LD. All the blah blah aside. Here's my play in the swamp.

Trifecta

Discreetly Mine

A Little Warm

with

DM, ALM,Stay Put, Dross

with

DM, ALM, Stay Put, Dross, Mr. Mardi G

And I've made all my donations for 2010 so get on board or close your hand and take me off your call list. Good luck y'all. If I'm wrong, I hope your right(yes even you naked cadaver truth-cf

Giddy UP!

re: March 22, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Coldfacts — Sat, 27 Mar 2010 13:41:04 GMT

Steve,

There is probably still some gloom in the Steve Amussen’ barn over the Rachel Alexandra’s loss. The stable can certainly do with a lift and it could come on Saturday the 27th March. It is amazing that such a powerful stable does not have a serious contender for the big dance scheduled for the 1st Saturday in May. The stable will send out a colt in one of the preps on Saturday the 27th March and his profile is very interesting. The colt is Letsgetitmon and it appears his pedigree is ideally suited for the Turfway Park poly track. His sire Marias Mon needs no introduction as he is known for siring 2001 KD winner Monarchos. Café Concerto the dam of Letsgetitmon was unplaced in seven starts but she was sires by a Trempolino the winner of the 1987 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. It’s not very often a mare sired by an Arc winner shows up in a horse’s pedigree. Trempolino has had success at the highest level as a broodmare sire with Breeder Cup Juvenile winner Action This day and Breeders Cup Distaff winner Round Pond. The dam sire of derby winning sire Marias Mon was Irish bred Caro who was 4th Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (G1) and is known for siring the siring the brilliant derby winner Winning Colors. Caro was also dam sire of Breedes Cup Juvenile winner Unbridles Song.

Letsgetitmon ran an encouraging race in the G3 LeComte S closing fast from very far back. The influential turf horses in his pedigree should allow him to perform effectively on synthetic tracks. I think he can spring a massive upset. He is definitely an exotic wager horse.

re: March 22, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

trebloc — Sat, 27 Mar 2010 13:00:06 GMT

play of the day is Helen Belen in Grade 3 Bourbonette. Speed fiugres are much the best and she loves Turfway! m/l 6-1!

re: March 22, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Slew — Sat, 27 Mar 2010 11:53:49 GMT

River city: It's true...the SW is a prep for the Arkansas Derby. The rest were preps for the Santa Anita Derby. The story about Amoss was relayed via HRTV. I've been watching his works at the FG, and he's always been one of the fastest there. I believe the time is accurate. The closest time to his has been 1:11.4. Also, Giant Oak has been turning in better times than Ron the Greek, who just started picking up his pace last week. I feel bad for Jody Slew; I think she was still nursing her injury. She did not run her usual race, but Quiet Temper did a great job.

re: March 22, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

cyber_wolf_puppy2@yahoo.com — Sat, 27 Mar 2010 05:28:38 GMT

As of –3/26 …prior to La. Derby and the Lane’s End Stakes, the Sportswriters Poll consensus reveals the following:

Watchmaker Odds:

By ranking & compiling their lists:

#1 “Lookin at Lucky”: 4-1

#2 “Eskendereya”: -9/2

#3 “Awesome Act”: 15-1

#4 “Sidney’s Candy”: 15-1

#5 “Dublin”: 20-1

#6 “Conveyance”: 20-1

#7 “Stay Put”: not-listed

#8T “Discreetly Mine”: 30-1

#8T “Rule”: 15-1

#10T “Ice Box”: 15-1

#10T “Interactif”: 20-1

#10T “Odysseus”: 25-1

#13 “Super Saver”: 20-1

#14 “Drosselmeyer”: not-listed

#15T “Tempted to Tapit”: 50-1

#15T “Radiohead”: not-listed

#17T “Ron the Greek”: not listed

#17T “Alphie’s Bet”: 30-1

#19T “Schoolyard Dreams”: not listed

#19T “Fly Down”: not listed

#19T “Soaring Empire”: not listed

re: March 22, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

TheeMilton — Sat, 27 Mar 2010 02:25:07 GMT

Coldfacts.... I think you got it cold with Sidney's Candy and Conveyance... Why Sid is getting no love in the Official Derby Pools is beyond me... won 2 graded stakes in a row... and has he been asked in either? He looks like the Rodney Dangerfield of this year's crop... That's OK... I 'll take the long odds while I can get 'em. Conveyance looks solid... Ice Box closed real nice last week to beat my 25:1 shot- oh well that's racing.. and I still think Dublin can get in the money. Who the jockey will be on Dublin.. I dunno.

re: March 22, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Ranagulzion — Sat, 27 Mar 2010 00:56:23 GMT

COLDFACTS,

Your posting of 26 March, 1:50pm reads like an epistle though you may not be an Apostle (LOL). May I refresh your memory you about your treatise on the San Filipe about a week ago (although I figure you would like this case to be forgotten) in which you waxed warm on philosophy like the great Aristotle, telling us about the "unknown unknown" and led the gullible ones among us to conclude that an unknown colt named Erbeia could upset the apple cart and defeat the well known leading lights like Sidney's Candy, Interactif, Caracotado and even the known pretender American Lion? You anticipated that Erbeia would reward you hansomely with cash and much needed bragging rights. I couldn't resist the temptation to re-ash this your nightmare but the "horse from up North," Hotep has apparently taken up Erbeia's mantel in your dream again. Wake up Coldfacts! wake up bro!

re: March 22, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Ranagulzion — Sat, 27 Mar 2010 00:22:04 GMT

FORBIDDEN APPLE,

You are absolutely entitled to you opinions but you should tell us if you will be willing to eat some crow (lots of it) or do the honorable thing that Mike Relva proposes to do when a Pletcher trained horse wins the Kentucky Derby. Ranting against Pletcher's horses is okay but if you are proven wrong don't expect Ranagulzion to let you off the hook Pal. Penance you will have to pay or ignobility will come your way.

re: March 22, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Zookeeper — Fri, 26 Mar 2010 18:17:01 GMT

Coldfacts,

I took a long look at Hotep, he being from the north... but his high earning dam threw me off. Mission Impazible completely eluded me. I don't know NEARLY enough about pedigrees to follow your clues to their logical conclusions. I think the subject is fascinating and I enjoy your posts very much. It opens a new door to my appreciation of horse racing. Now that the door is ajar, I want to understand what's behind it. What book(s) do you recommend I read to get started on the right foot?

Just for fun, I'll place a modest "across the board" bet on Hotep. He should be a long shot as in "Pleasant Prince", maybe even better. A small exacta box with Hotep & Mission Impazible is worth a try for a big pay off. Last week was an eye opener for me... so I'm not about to throw out any of your educated picks. However, I'll still place a win bet on Stay Put. I've spent too much time finding him to throw him out the window. Dixieland Band sold me on him. I'm glad you like him also and thank you for the encouraging words.

re: March 22, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Forbidden Apple — Fri, 26 Mar 2010 18:07:54 GMT

It's no surprsie that Ranagulzion likes Discreetly Mine and Mission Impazible. Mission Impazible fits a Pletcher regime horse well, since he can not win the KY Derby! Discreetly Mine ran his last race like a turtle, good luck. When a Pletcher horse wins you call them world beaters and when they lose you have a bag full of excuses.

Coldfacts, thank you for the information on Awesome Act. However I know that every year and every horse are different and this colt deserves a chance to step up and knock off another Pletcher donkey. Do you like Conveyance at all, let me know? And what about Mendip, he will win tomorrow?

re: March 22, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

tcc — Fri, 26 Mar 2010 17:53:20 GMT

Coldfacts:

#11 MISTER MARTI GRAS (USA) ch. G, 2007 his sire is(Belong To Me). The (2009 Arkansas Derby) winner was Papa Clem, his sire was Smart Strike, his dam was Miss Houdini, (by Belong To Me).

re: March 22, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

RiverCitySmitty — Fri, 26 Mar 2010 16:42:50 GMT

Slew: I don`t really consider the Southwest a true derby prep since Oaklawn uses a bogus finish line in mile races which tend to favor the front runners. I didn`t see Amoss` comments regarding Backtalk`s work. I thought the timer may have malfunctioned or was accidently triggered. The Kenner sprint tomorrow may not be faster.

re: March 22, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Ranagulzion — Fri, 26 Mar 2010 16:27:33 GMT

COLDFACTS,

I'll be very honest with you. I figured you were referring to Mission Impazible after I'd posted my first response. And i know about Hotep. Just for the records.

re: March 22, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Billy's Empire — Fri, 26 Mar 2010 14:47:26 GMT

I am going to say now that Bob will have a 1-2 finish in the KY Derby this year.

re: March 22, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Slew — Fri, 26 Mar 2010 14:30:39 GMT

PS Cold facts...only one was an actual Derby Prep race...the SW. The rest were minor stakes.