March 29, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

re: March 29, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

david — Sun, 03 Oct 2010 00:46:38 GMT

im a big derby fan

re: March 29, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

david — Sun, 03 Oct 2010 00:44:57 GMT

its cool

re: March 29, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

JerseyBoy — Mon, 05 Apr 2010 20:21:14 GMT

Ranagulzion:

I have no preference. I am saying that the present system is inequitable because it allows horses in based on their earnings not on the quality of their performances. As to your reference about "synthetic" horses, please note that Uh Oh Bango also leads Odysseus, the winner of the Tampa Bay Derby (GR3) on dirt. I stand by my statement that a points system would be superior.

By the way, be careful about questioning other people's qualifications. You do not want to know what mine is.

re: March 29, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

RiverCitySmitty — Mon, 05 Apr 2010 16:39:38 GMT

Zarvona: For the Oaks/Derby DD I`d probably wheel Blind Luck and hope blind luck occurs in the 20 horse derby field. Sorry Ranag., Esky won`t scare people out of their derby dreams despite your wishing for it. I wish Hollendorfer would reconsider the derby with Blind Luck. She`d have a good chance of being the only closer in a speed dominant field where most may be catching asthma down the stretch. Most of these will see a 6f run in a much faster time than they`ve encountered.

re: March 29, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Ranagulzion — Mon, 05 Apr 2010 16:29:02 GMT

JERSEY BOY,

Your system is prejudiced against horse like Mine That Bird that came from finishing 3rd or 4th in The Sunland Derby. What qualifies you to choose Setsuko (a Synthetics horse) over UH Oh Bango (a proven under-the-radar dirt gelding that is capable of a shocker similar to Mine That Bird).

My point is that the current system has never failed to deliver the best line-up (plus a clutter of pretenders of course)...never failed!!! ...not once. Therefore why agitate for change everytime it seems like one/two of the favourites of some opinion leader is in danger of not making the cut? I say "leave well-enough alone" or if you prefer, "if it aint broke don't fix it."

In 2004 when Rock Hard Ten and Eddington did not get in they were not deserving and hindsight vindicated that outcome. At the Belmont they both ran a relay as cheap speed rabbits to foil Smarty Jones Triple Crown bid. End of story.

re: March 29, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Ranagulzion — Mon, 05 Apr 2010 15:47:24 GMT

I don't know what some folks are expecting out of a superior horse in Derby preps ...the shattering of record splits and track records when a colt is preparing for the most rigorous 3 race series of any racehorse's career? It aint gonna happen ...you just have to be smart enough to read pedigree, performances versus the available competition, the horses's body language, the jockey and trainers comments and reflect on some outstanding past champions record in the same races etc. Then it becomes simpler. Otherwise trust Ranagulzion assessment (LOL). Actually I picked four of the last ten Derby winners (Monarchos, Smarty Jones, Barbaro and Big Brown) and what you'll notice about these is that they all towered over their rivals at the Big Dance ...so here we go again. Eskendereya it shall be!!!

re: March 29, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

datflippinrabbit — Mon, 05 Apr 2010 14:44:48 GMT

Esk ran well in the wood in a time of just under 1.50,the clock is alot slower than he looked.All these preps are won by horses on or near the pace setting comfortable early fractions,when the stayers get the pace they want derby day going 10 furlongs we'll see who's boss.Endorsement and LAL,i'd like to see Baffert give the horse to Calvin.

re: March 29, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

JerseyBoy — Mon, 05 Apr 2010 14:08:25 GMT

Ranagulzion:

The reason for again suggesting a point system is this. Horses are currently accepted in based on their earnings in graded races. The point system says it does not matter how much money horses earned in those races but where they finished in those races, the higher the grade the better. This way a horse does better in winning the Fountain of Youth (GR2) than the Sunland Derby (GR3).

It does not prevent a rank outsider from winning.

The worst example of the current inequity can be found today on the DRF earnings list.Uh Oh Bango is ahead of Setsuko. Uh Oh Bango finished 2nd in the GR3 Delta Jackpot. Setsuko was 2nd in the GR1 SA Derby.A point system would have prevented this.

re: March 29, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Ranagulzion — Mon, 05 Apr 2010 12:49:51 GMT

JERSEY BOY,

I thought that Mine That Bird drove the last nail into the coffin of an ill-conceived notion of changing the Graded Earnings qualification system for the Kentucky Derby last year ...but lo and behold Steve Haskin has unbelievably resurrected the issue and his reason for doing so is no better than last year ...beats me.

re: March 29, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Geronimo2123 — Mon, 05 Apr 2010 12:41:39 GMT

As awe inspiring as Eskendereya's romp in the Wood was, during his past 2 starts, the horse has basically been kept wide on the backstretch completely out of traffic, has been allowed to gallop into his bridle, has been given his head a full furlong before his competitors, and basically galloped his outclassed foes into oblivion.

This year the Derby post draw is assigned via pill pull. Read: The trainers do not choose posts this year. Your gate is what is in the blind pill draw. Period. This is Pletcher, who has had some bad Derby breaks.

If Esky draws inside, the horse may be in major trouble. If he can get outside via Big Brown, maybe he can steer clear of trouble. We have NO IDEA what this horse can do when steadied, has to be taken up, encounters trouble, etc. Except when he threw in the towel when Lookin at Lucky blew him away in the BC Juvie. So, the question is: Esky: Big Brown or Bellamy Road?

One thing for sure, his final 3/8th AND his pace in both of his preps have been SLOWER than Sidney's Candy. SC ran a 1:12 for 6f and then exploded home in 35.67 seconds for the final 3 furlongs in his ultra impressive SA Derby.

That, ladies and gents, is a serious racehorse. He looks every bit the part his sire Candy Ride did when he beat Medalio d'oro in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar (ON DIRT) and set the track record of 1:59 and change for 10 panels.

Candy Ride received a 123 Beyer Speed Figure for that 10 furlong win. Another son of Candy Ride has looked good recently; Misremembered, winning at 10f at Santa Anita. Candy Ride's damsire was Candy Stripes, sire of Invasor, who excelled at 10 furlongs ON DIRT.

We keep hearing about some so-called speed challenging SC up front, but the fact is, they do not. They are afraid to go with him, and this is setting up like War Emblem II or even Spend a Buck (where Cordero told Whitaker before the Derby he was going to the front and letting the horse run and dared the rest of the field to go with them).

Spend a Buck went 23 flat, 45 and change, 1:09 and change and then really started running...the mile in 1:34 and change and the Derby in 2:00.03. Third fastest Derby in history at the time. It was the biggest laugher in Derby history because NO ONE WAS NEAR THAT HORSE AT ANY POINT. Utter domination from a horse everyone thought might fold when the pace got to 46 or 47 in the Derby. Right.

Esky come home time was 36-1/5 for 3 furlongs in The Wood. Very good, but he is going to have to pick it up to catch Sidney's Candy. And the best part about LAL's game performance Sat. (final 3 furlongs in 36-4/5) is that his price will go way up and he came out of the race very well.

BSFs on synthetic tracks are inherently unreliable. Typically top class horses jump 8-10 points going from synthetics to dirt (like Lookin For Lucky did). LAL did not improve by that much, he just ran on dirt which Beyer actually figures out accurately.

But please, Esky may be special, but let him earn it. He is not the next Big Red, and anyone who knows pace and horseracing knows that. One thing is for sure: The Pletcher choreographed outside galloping show will be officially over when the Derby gates open.

Candy Ride is one of the most underrated classic distance runners in history because he was labeled as a speedster and a miler in his home country. Yet, unlike many other sires, when locked in a stretch duel, CR prevailed.

re: March 29, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

JerseyBoy — Mon, 05 Apr 2010 10:53:27 GMT

The numbers above came out crooked. I will try again in case anyone cares. The points can be assigned thus:

FINISH Grade1 Grade2 Grade3

1 48 36 24

2 16 12 8

3 8 6 4

4 4 3 2

5 2 1.5 1

re: March 29, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Exactabox — Mon, 05 Apr 2010 09:47:38 GMT

I watched that wood a few more times but havent set about the serious comparative analysis yet. I am still undecided on what Esky's potential is in the Derby. Why? they walked around the track, there was NO pace, and it was a small field. They ran that thing like a California poly race or a European turf race....the Derby will not unfold like a loosely wrapped birthday present for Esky like this one did. The last time I attended the Wood Memorial I saw a similar incredible display that every one thought was the second coming....remember Bellamy Road?? - I am just sayin' ....while this was a great looking race and Esky dominated the field, it aint gonna be the same conditions by a longshot come Derby Day......The one thing we do know for sure, he's going to be taking all the money.

re: March 29, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Gary — Mon, 05 Apr 2010 04:43:01 GMT

I think Baffert was upset because Gomez maintained the inside and pressed that position where all the trouble was. I really thought during the race that his ride looked like something Borel would do. My opinion is candy is better than he is given respect for.

My dozen are:

1- Eskendereya

2- Lookin for Lucky

3- Sidney's Candy

4- Odyseus

5- Interactif

6- Dublin

7- Rule

8- Endorsement

9- Noble's Promise

10-Setsuko

11-Mission Impazable

12-Little Warm

regrettingly leaving off Awesome Act, Schoolyard Dreams,Plesant Prince, and Ice Box.

re: March 29, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

zarvona — Mon, 05 Apr 2010 03:03:06 GMT

Further late calculations show that graded earnings of $231K or higher could be the required and the safe level to actually gain a gate slot!! That being so, for example where during these final 3 major preps should, "Odysseus", "Super Saver", "Drosselmeyer" &/ or "Paddy O'Prado", or etc. --(potential newbies to crack the $230K + list)--all enter the current earnings list at a figure of $230K or greater !!!

Also, I too am of agreement that a point system of Graded races--any distance any surface, possibly assigning more & more points to events of greater lengths, extra points per furlong, & extra points per the higher grades, etc.--should count toward determining the final Kty. Derby line up, but you would be bucking the current system of running every weekend vs. on certain trainer desired 'prime' weekend dates possibly. Therefore, much in the way of detail would be needed to be worked out should such a major change be implemented. But, I agree it would be a better system.

At the moment "Drosselmeyer" one of the highly regarded horses of this generation must be kicking himself at all his just behind by a "nose" and "neck" finishes costing him 'graded dollar', but thats the way it goes & that’s why they run they races. Still, look out for him in possibily the "Preakness", although he'd be much more dangerous in the "Belmont".

re: March 29, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Bloodline Bob — Mon, 05 Apr 2010 02:53:31 GMT

BLUE GRASS STAKES WINNER= INTERACTIF.

re: March 29, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Fran Loszynski — Sun, 04 Apr 2010 22:24:26 GMT

I believe Garrett Gomez may have saved Lookin at Lucky's life or a potential injury in the Santa Anita. I know Bob Baffert wanted him to race him and let him run but no offense to any trainer-"but,geesh louise, who's on his back when a horse is running Guys!!!" Sure jockey's can make mistakes but while your ankles are jumping up and down in the stands, your jockey's ankles are steering and holding on for life and your horse's life. Garrett Gomez could steer a locomotive down the finish line! Thank you for saving Lucky- I want to see my Dublin and Lucky race K.Derby Day!

re: March 29, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

zarvona — Sun, 04 Apr 2010 20:41:17 GMT

With the Fillie major preps behind us,--and thusly, in order to figure out the illusive "OAKS-DERBY Double",--one is going to have to take a scrutinizing look at this column of potential running fillies in order to figure out an order of finish. (A listing btw the Steve could yearly aid us in taking a crack at!)

Blind Luck: (Kty.); Tr. J. Hollendorfer;

Hot Dixie Chick: (Kty.); Tr. S. Asmussen;

Devil May Care: (Kty.); Tr. T. Pletcher;

Tapitsfly: (Kty.); Tr. D. Romans;

Amen Hallelujah: (Fla.); Tr. R. Dutrow;

Christine Daae: (Kty.); Tr. P. Biancone;

Evening Jewel: (Cal.); Tr. J. Cassidy;

Tidal Pool: (Kty.); Tr. D.W. Lucas;

It’s Tea Time: (Kty.); Tr. R. Arnold;

Crisp: (Kty.); Tr. J. Sadler;

Khancord Kid: (N.Y..); Tr. J. Kimmel;

Quiet Temper; (Kty.); Tr. D. Romans;

Rose Catherine: (Kty.); Tr. T. Pletcher;

All Due Respect: (Fla.); Tr. K. Walsh; DI 6.00 ;

re: March 29, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

zarvona — Sun, 04 Apr 2010 18:52:52 GMT

Thoughts as of Easter…

“Awesome Act” reportedly lost a shoe at the start of the ‘Wood’ and “Lookin at Lucky” has a bad trip that one might expect in the “Kty. Derby”. Tough to gauge where either really still stands after we thought we were going to get a bead on each versus real competition. Although, “Lookin at Lucky” made up some awesome ground.

“Sidney’s Candy” who has been in my top 5 for some weeks and a horse Steve has seemed to have largely ignored in favor of the likes of “Odysseus” , “Super Saver”, and “Schoolyard Dreams”, now looks like he could actually wire the Kty. Derby field! He was the only real speed in the SA Derby and galloped right on passed the finish line hardly ever even contested in a sterling 1:48.00. “Eskendereya” gets a 109 Beyer for 1:49.47, what would one assign the run of “Sidney’s Candy”?? (I couldn’t find it posted anywhere.) Then again, the only draw back to “Eskendereya”,--besides that detraction of a “Storm Cat” breeding thang,--is that he has so far never had to look another horse in the eye!

And then again, besides “Ice Box” growing up before our eyes, “Endorsement” looks more and more on paper like the real late developing deal!

Thusly, if Pletcher and “Eskendereya” think the Kty. Derby is theirs if they just show up, they better think again.

P.S. Also, as of right now, “Mendip” at $200K looks like he will finish 21st-24th on the graded earnings chart at $200K in !!

Therefore my dozen at this juncture looks something like this:

1.) Lookin at Lucky: (Kty.); Tr. B. Baffert; Tomlinson distance rating 311; $$ 1.46 mil. earnings;

2.) Eskendereya: (Kty.); Tr. T. Pletcher; Tomlinson distance rating 336; $600K earnnigs;

3.) Sidney’s Candy: (Kty.); Tr. J. Sadler; Tomlinson distance rating 269*; ^ $630K earnnigs;

4.) Endorsement: (Kty.); Tr. S. Ritter; Tomlinson distance rating n/l; $400K earnnigs;

5.) Ice Box; (Kty.); Tr. N. Zito; Tomlinson distance rating n/l; $457K earnnigs;

6.) Awesome Act; (Kty.); Tr. J. Noseda; Tomlinson distance rating 302; $285K earnnigs;

7.) Interactif: (Kty.); Tr. T. Pletcher; Tomlinson distance rating 334; $270K earnnigs;

8.) Dean’s Kittten: (Kty.): Tr. M. Maker; Tomlinson distance rating 276; $326K earnings;

9.) Noble’s Promise: (Kty.); Tr. K. McPeek; Tomlinson distance rating 259; $708K earnnigs;

10.) Discreetly Mine; (Kty.); Tr. T. Pletcher; Tomlinson distance rating 336; $340K earnnigs;

11.) Aikenite: (Fla.): Tr. T. Pletcher; (-1/29 foal); Tomlinson distance rating n/l; $218K earnnigs;

12.)T Dublin: (Kty.); Tr. D.W. Lukas; Tomlinson distance rating 276; $273K earnnigs;

12.)T Rule; (Kty.); Tr. T. Pletcher; DI 4.60; Tomlinson distance rating 250; $645K earnings;

12.)T Make Music for Me; (Kty.); Tr. A. Barba; Tomlinson distance rating n/l; $215K earnnigs;

15.) Conveyance: (Kty.); gr.; Tr. B. Baffert; Tomlinson distance rating n/l; $386K earnnigs;

16.) American Lion: (Kty.); Tr. R. Budge; Tomlinson distance rating n/l; $255K earnnigs;

17.) Mission Impazible: (Kty.); Tr. T. Pletcher; Tomlinson distance rating n/l; $473K earnnigs;

18.) Yawanna Twist: (N.Y.); Tr. R. Dutrow; Tomlinson distance rating n/l; $217K + earnnigs; (147K?)

19.) Jackson Bend: (Fla.); Tr. N. Zito; DI 6.20; Tomlinson distance rating n/l; $230K + earnnigs;

20.) Backtalk: (N.Y.); Tr. T. Amoss; Tomlinson distance rating n/l; $222K + earnnigs;

21.) Homeboy Kris: (Md.); (g) Tr. R. Dutrow; Tomlinson distance rating n/l; $250K earnnigs;

22.) Mendip: (Kty.): Tr. S. bin Suroor; (Feb. 9th foal); Tomlinson distance rating n/l; $200K earnnigs;

sitting on the fence with potentially only one run left to go to make ‘the Dance’…

23.) Paddy O’Prado: (Kty.): Tr. D Romans; Tomlinson distance rating 000; c. only $101K earnnigs;

24.) Drosselmeyer: (Kty.): Tr. B. Mott; Tomlinson distance rating 000; c. only $94K earnnigs;

25.) Odysseus: (Kty.); Tr. T. Albertrani; Tomlinson distance rating 301; c. only $180K earnnigs;

26.) Super Savor: (Kty.); Tr. T. Pletcher; Tomlinson distance rating 368; c. only $163K earnnigs;

re: March 29, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

datflippinrabbit — Sun, 04 Apr 2010 17:59:22 GMT

Endorsement is going to upset this apple cart.

re: March 29, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Ranagulzion — Sun, 04 Apr 2010 15:50:34 GMT

STEVE,

Since ZARVONA mentioned it, what do you think are the chances of a mass defection, in the wake of Esky's awe-inspiring Wood Memorial romp, to spare us a twenty horse clutter and the auxillary gate in the Derby?

Is this still are far-fetched notion of mine or is reality slowly sinking in? Game and genuine as he is, does Jackson bend really belong in the same Derby line-up as Esky, and what about Schoolyard dreams and Odysseus?

re: March 29, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

You got to have it — Sun, 04 Apr 2010 15:34:47 GMT

Here it is Sidney's Candy will be comanding the lead in the KDerby while Eskendereya will be tracking Sidney. Looking at Lucky will be sitting behind horses while Setsuko will be trailing. Here it is Sidney with Talamo will duel it out in the final stretch when Eskendereya is a head in front LALucky will start coming from the outside and Setsuko from far back is rallying to reach them. The Final will be

1. Looking At Lucky by head

2. Eskendereya by a nose to

3. Setsuko 1 1/2 to

4. Sidney Candy.

re: March 29, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

JerseyBoy — Sun, 04 Apr 2010 14:37:51 GMT

Steve:

Using graded earnings as a qualification for running in the Kentucky Derby is inequitable. A better method would be to award points for finishing 1-5 in Graded stakes. The horses with the most points will then get in based on the grade of the races they ran in rather than the dollars they earned. This is not a new idea. A sample plan is shown below:

Finish GR 1 GR 2 GR 3

1 48 36 24

2 16 12 8

3 8 6 4

4 4 3 2

5 2 1.5 1

re: March 29, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Slew — Sun, 04 Apr 2010 14:32:09 GMT

And time keeps marching and preps keep shaping up the field. I have to include Eskendereya, LAL, Sydney's Candy, Endorsement, Noble's Promise, Dublin, Setsuko, aligning at the top. It's going to be a interesting month ahead. Here's hoping Talamo finally gets his revenge after losing the favorite to a scratch last year.

re: March 29, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Sebas — Sun, 04 Apr 2010 08:47:54 GMT

I can not believe that Sidney´s Candy is not in the list, tremendous horse.

re: March 29, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

thoroughbredzone — Sun, 04 Apr 2010 06:00:05 GMT

Sidney's Candy will be on the next one...