April 5, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

re: April 5, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Dr Drunkinbum — Mon, 12 Apr 2010 14:43:01 GMT

Eskendereya-Gobbles up ground like a super gopher. Gopherzilla. The one to beat. We haven't even seen him in high gear, I don't think. Highly impressive with ease in all of his dirt races. Tremendous, powerful stride. He will be flying down the stretch. But how was his trip and where is he in relation to everyone else at that point? His post position could be very important. His stride hasn't been interrupted yet. We know about his talent, but we can only assume on his class. He hasn't been tested or put in a difficult position on dirt. His races on other surfaces are complete throwouts. One turf and one pro ride. He is the only one in The Derby with the speed figures that you would expect to see for a Derby winner but AW figures are off so it isn't as relevant as pre-AW years.

re: April 5, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Dr Drunkinbum — Mon, 12 Apr 2010 14:34:51 GMT

Zookeeper

I agree. After watching replays this morning I made a new top ten. Stately Victor is now higher on my list, and Line Of David lower. I am very interested to see how horses come out of the Apr 10 races with only 3 weeks to go. Who can't recover, and who will move forward. Of the horses that can get the distance in a good time, who will be peaking or at least ready to run Derby Day. The SA Derby told us very little. If LAL had gotten through instead of being blocked and backing up then we'd know more. We needed to see Sidney challenged. He is still a bit of an unknown. We know he is very good. But how is he on dirt in a mile and a quarter, and how does he respond when challenged and has to dig in. He could be a monster. Esky is still the horse to beat but I see at least 3 or more that could challenge him.

re: April 5, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Dr Drunkinbum — Mon, 12 Apr 2010 14:25:42 GMT

Monday Morning Top Ten 4-12-10

1. Eskendereya

2. Sidney's Candy

3. Lookin At Lucky

4. Endorsement

5. Super Saver

6. Dublin

7. American Lion

8. Mission Impazible

9. Stately Victor

10. Ice Box

re: April 5, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Zookeeper — Mon, 12 Apr 2010 14:07:32 GMT

Dr Drunkinbum,

It takes two to tango...so I left the dance floor. After a while it gets tiresome and my feet were hurting. :)

re: April 5, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Dr Drunkinbum — Mon, 12 Apr 2010 13:08:20 GMT

Zookeeper

Handicapping is usually the easy part. It's betting correctly that's the hard part. Last year's Derby was the toughest ever to handicap for me. My top horse was I Want Revenge. After I lost him I had no one to key. The only bet I made was a large exacta box because I believed there was a high probability that one or more of my longshots would win. Our good looking underachiever Mr Hot Stuff was in my box too. Without injuries this year I will have one, two, or three key horses. That's what I think today anyway. I went over to The Gilligan's Island blog because I thought you would make one last response to your recent adversary, and you did !!! Again, thinking just the way I do.

re: April 5, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Vic S — Mon, 12 Apr 2010 03:04:21 GMT

--Vic S,

I like your namesake very much. He will probably remain a long shot in the KD which might bode well for your pocket. I prefer his running style over the front runners'. If Alan Garcia can duplicate the fantastic ride he gave SV in the Blue Grass, the potential is very real to me. Some will doubt him because he has raced mostly on turf and synthetics... but if the switch to dirt seems to work very well for the California horses, I don't see why it would not be the case for SV also. Best of luck to you AND your namesake!

Zookeeper 11 Apr 2010 2:27 PM --

-- Thank you very much for the kind words Zookeeper. I too think he's a legitimate threat, especially with that running style and pedigree. He looks very good when he runs and he seems to be improving at the right time, I can only hope for the best and I'll surely bet $20 to win on him(at least lol) come Derby day. Victor all the way!!!! Best of luck to you and your Derby pick Zookeeper, this year's Derby field seems to be very competitive and I can't wait to watch the race.

re: April 5, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Zookeeper — Mon, 12 Apr 2010 02:54:05 GMT

Dr Drunkinbum,

Line of David escaped my short attention span when he raced and won at SA this winter. Like Gunbow, I need to write notes to myself and keep better records of the horses I have seen, so that I can make better decisions. As I posted on Jason's blog, I was impressed with his grittiness but I am doubtful that he can carry that speed and courage at a 1 1/4 miles. What do you think?

I was more impressed with Stately Victor's charge to the wire for a 4+ lenghts win. Maybe it is my bias towards late runners that is clouding my judgment but I have placed him high on my list. What are your thoughts on that?

re: April 5, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

TheeMilton — Mon, 12 Apr 2010 02:06:52 GMT

Sidney's Candy will win the Kentucky Derby in 2010. I said it weeks ago.....I am still saying it. I bet it months ago.. I will bet it on May 1st. THE HORSE HAS DONE NOTHING WRONG... but win stakes and more stakes... triple crown winner? now there is the question.

re: April 5, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Zookeeper — Mon, 12 Apr 2010 02:06:25 GMT

Dr Drunkinbum,

Thank you for your confidence in my handicapping abilities. I wish I felt the same about myself. I can use ALL the help I can get. Although I didn't do too badly in the BG & the AD by picking both place horses, if I had bet, it would have been to win, and my pocketbook would be lighter because of it. I'm improving but I am far from being a good handicapper.

I'm sure you read the article about the possible entries to the Lane's End, to my great relief, Setsuko's name wasn't on it. Smart connections!

Congratulations on having the exacta in last year KD. Pioneer was an easy choice but Mine That Bird was a well hidden treasure. I'm glad you found him. If you make such a discovery this year, please share it with me. Your secret will be safe as most bloggers don't listen to anybody anyways and are too busy touting their own brilliant choices. LOL

re: April 5, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Dr Drunkinbum — Mon, 12 Apr 2010 01:33:04 GMT

Zookeeper

I know you know how to handicap. The only reason I said what I said is because a 20 horse field is an imposing task, and it's real tempting to try to save some time by tossing horses without a full evaluation of them.

re: April 5, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Dr Drunkinbum — Mon, 12 Apr 2010 01:25:03 GMT

Zookeeper

You're right about Setsuko. It wouldn't be right to run him in The Lexington. He'd have to win it anyway. Then he'd have to run again in two weeks. I'm positive that the owner and trainer feel the same way. He'll be in The Preakness or Belmont. I'd prefer The Belmont if they choose just one. He's going to turn out to be really something. I hope he can make it to The Breeder's Cup Classic too. What a show that race is shaping up to be. Setsuko has the look of a champion. Can't wait to see him on dirt. I'm starting from scratch now in The Derby.

When you're studying for The Derby, don't leave any horses out in your evaluation. Speed figures can be decieving especially for synthetics. Don't just toss a horse based on speed figures, look at his charts and replays. Mine That Bird was impressive as a two year old at Woodbine. Two Year Old Champion in fact. His speed numbers were weak but part of that was because they haven't figured out how to give them the correct numbers yet for AW. You can't toss a horse based soley on pedigree or the sires and damsires average winning distance either. Look what Musket Man did. But if you watched his previous races you could see the class. I wonder how big the exacta would have been if he hadn't been bumped in the stretch. I hit the exacta and would have had that one too, at I think a much bigger price. Keep in mind also that pro ride is different than Keeneland's surface. Don't put all synthetics in the same mold. Good Luck in your studies. Good to have you back. Did you ever see Line Of David run at SA? That was impressive at OP. I was certain they would overtake him for my Trifecta. But he was tough. I ended up doing a wheel with Super Saver on top, Dublin, and N Giant in 2nd and all in 3rd. I felt certain that Noble's Promise wouldn't be in the top 3 but there was no point in leaving him out of 3rd, just in case.

re: April 5, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

YOU GOT TO HAVE IT — Sun, 11 Apr 2010 20:12:15 GMT

Wow what a day at the races was yesterday, Stately Victor and Line of David impressive. But now what another full of surprises coming into Derby day. Let me just say that Esky is still the one to beat. He could be the next Big Brown. Lookin at Lucky is a nice colt with good pedigree and I know come derby day Bob Baffert will make Lookin at Lucky a superstar. But there is more great colts running and with full steam. First the ones that won Sidney Candy, Ice Box, American Lion, Endorsement, Dean's Kitten, Line of David, Stately Victor, Mission Impazible, and you wonder which one will hit the board and win. I always thought that Sidney Candy is a great looking horse same characteristics as Secretariat or Affirmed. That just my opinion. I still see others going into the KY derby with a little bit of hope to win and thats Backtalk, Setsuko, Stately Victor, Conveyance, American Lion. Esky is the best for now Odysseus was disappointed yesterday but this colt will rebound. Super Saver is a hard worker just like Hard Spun. Lookin at Lucky needs to be trained good coming into the KYderby his target will be Esky and the Derby. Baffert + Gomez + LALucky is a great combination. California horses are good they just stuck on pro ride but they're bred to run on dirt. So beware California is coming ready to face the KYderby and other dirt tracks in the East Coast. Here are my picks.

1- Lookin At Lucky

2- Setsuko

3- Esky

4- Sidney's Candy

5- Line of David

6- Endorsement

7- Super Saver

8- American Lion

9- Odysseus

10-Stately Victor

11-Ice Box

12-Mission Impazible

13-Dublin

re: April 5, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Zookeeper — Sun, 11 Apr 2010 18:42:56 GMT

Dr Drunkinbum,

Yes, and our world is more fun!

Setsuko is #27 on the graded earnings list. He may still make it to the KD although it doesn't look good. I don't think that running him 2 weeks before the Derby, in order to get him in the gate, is a good idea. Let the chips fall where they may and shoot for the Preakness. Blackeyed Susans would look good against his splendid coat. :)

re: April 5, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Zookeeper — Sun, 11 Apr 2010 18:27:01 GMT

Vic S,

re: April 5, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Dr Drunkinbum — Sun, 11 Apr 2010 18:17:48 GMT

We are living in the wacky world of the two worlds of the parallel worlds. Everything in our world is backwards and everything in their world is logical and sane. Therefore I predict that Homeboykris will win The Derby in 2010. In the other world, the horses that should be in, are in, and Setsuko would be my pick if I lived over there. Also, Pleasant Prince is in their Derby. In the other world they only have well mantained and groomed dirt tracks, and two turf courses at each track. So for the most part, the horses that should be in are in. They use a different system to determine their Derby horses. It's not entirely a Graded Earnings System. I've been given glimpses of the other world. It's nice. There is more logic, sanity, and decency. Sometimes I wish I could live over there. There is one huge problem however that would really disturb me. They don't have nearly as many longshots winning as we do.

re: April 5, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

RiverCitySmitty — Sun, 11 Apr 2010 16:31:17 GMT

"Hard also to believe that it will take more than a 1/4 million in earnings to preserve a spot, but that should be a lesson to future connections plotting courses!!!"...Zarvona

That`s exactly why I don`t think they should mess with the current earnings rule. If you have a decent horse, then run the damn thing. Winning one race and then being hailed by many as the second coming of Big Red makes no sense at all.

As for "the Todd Squad looking as imposing as ever" comment, well it hasn`t gotten him to the winner`s circle in the past like...ever.

Blind Luck could beat any of the WPS finishers from yesterday, but Hollendorfer changing his mind is doubtful.

re: April 5, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Bloodline Bob — Sun, 11 Apr 2010 15:52:11 GMT

SO, here is what i see about TODD PLETCHER. RULE=#3,ESKENDREYA=#6,MISSION IMPAZIBLE=#7,DISCREETLY MINE=#15,INTERACTIF=#17,AIKENITE=24 and CONNEMARA=#32. This is where his horses stand on the graded earnings list as of 4-11-10. WOW-WOW-WOW. HOW CAN YOU NOT LIKE PLETCHER TO WIN THE 2010 KY.DERBY???

re: April 5, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Slew — Sun, 11 Apr 2010 14:52:15 GMT

Oh shoot! New Madrid really didn't care for the company, and was looking for a different track down the stretch. I still like him, but he remains green, and outclassed for now...I see him stepping up mid-summer. I actually saw my Derby horse this weekend. His previous performances have been as bad as my previous picks....but he came through when it counted. I really hate to put the "kiss of doom" to any horse, but I was impressed by Stately Victor and Endorsement this year. (I am afraid that saying it out loud might just jinx them now...I hope not).

re: April 5, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Dr Drunkinbum — Sun, 11 Apr 2010 14:44:52 GMT

Bluelou

This is the first year I played the futures pool. Before I thought it was crazy. I passed on Pool One. Then bet Pool Two. At that time my top horses were Setsuko, Sidney's Candy and LAL. Obviously I wasn't going to bet LAL at those odds. I bet Setsuko at I think 68-1. Then I almost bet Sidney's Candy at 33-1, and said "too low". That was a dumb no bet. Then I bet exactas only boxing Setsuko instead of boxing all of them. After the pool closed I said, "oh no!!!, what a dummy." I should have boxed the six horses. I still don't like the single horse future wager but I'm starting to like the exacta. Next year will be different. I did do a box in Pool 3 exacta this year but the payoffs weren't nearly as high for my horses as in Pool Two. Good luck.

re: April 5, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

lover of horses phil — Sun, 11 Apr 2010 11:13:17 GMT

Let us Not forget 'who's Calvin gonna ride in the derby.....And I like Sidneys Candy...

re: April 5, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Bluelou — Sun, 11 Apr 2010 10:27:22 GMT

My top 10 is similar to yours, Dr D. (minus the faith in Setsuko)

1. Esky

2. Sidneys Candy (would be #1 if he had dirt experience; love the 33-1 I got in Pool 2!)

3. LAL (love the perseverance; wonder how much its taken out of him)

4. Super Saver (room to improve or destined to round out exotics?)

5. Endorsement (suspect he will be the "wise guy" horse come Derby Day)

6. Awesome Act (was Wood just a tune-up?

7. Mission Impazible

8. Ice Box

9. Dublin

10. Drosselmeyer (hope he gets in so my Pool 1 Exacta Box Esky-Dross has a shot)

re: April 5, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Vic S — Sun, 11 Apr 2010 04:24:15 GMT

It's nice when you pick the 40-1 shot in the Bluegrass. Yep, I had Stately Victor to win. With this, I will dethrone Sidney's Candy from the #1 place on my Derby Dozen(although I do think he still has a great chance at winning). I will probably never get the chance again in my life to pick any horse named Victor to win the Kentucky Derby. So because his name he is my Derby horse. His sire is also a plus - Ghostzapper, greatest male horse since the 80's. I will place him atop my Derby Dozen. My heart will chose my derby pick this year Stately Victor all the way! Stately Victor is my Kentucky Derby pick - FINAL. Unlike previous years I have changed my choice 2 times already from Conveyance to Sidney's Candy - now to Stately Victor. Usually, I stick with the same horse all year but lets face it Conveyance flopped at 1 1/8, then Candy guaranteed a spot with a flawless prep, and now a horse with same name as me - Victor, gets a chance to win the Derby - it is simply a chance I can't pass up. So my final, absolute, Derby pick is Stately Victor for first, then Sidney's Candy in the 2nd spot.

re: April 5, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

zarvona — Sun, 11 Apr 2010 01:54:05 GMT

Well, after another weekend of mild shocks,--(to say the least),--we now have 4 chances for the "Storm Cat" line to get off the “schnide” (sc) in: "Eskendereya"; "Sidney’s Candy"; "Ice Box"; and now "Line of David"; and we have 6 chances for Todd to get off the “schnide” (sc) in "Eskendereya"; "Super Saver"; "Discreetly Mine"; Mission Impazible"; "Interactif"; and "Rule", with a potential 7th shot still possible come next weekend in "Connemara". Although, should “Drosselmeyer” & “Connemara” finish 1-2 several may still get bumped from the bottom rung of the earnings chart still!--((After thought, and then there is always “Eightyfiveandafifty” to still gum up the works late)). And yet with some odd mass defections, Pletcher might still get to add “Aikenite” for 8.

Hard also to believe that it will take more than a 1/4 million in earnings to preserve a spot, but that should be a lesson to future connections plotting courses!!!

re: April 5, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Ranagulzion — Sun, 11 Apr 2010 01:29:50 GMT

Well, here are my post A.D. & Bluegrass reflections: I'm not bashful in saying I told you so about Odysseus not being a Kentucky Derby horse. It makes little sense to rush these slow-to-mature/late developing AP Indy sons/grandsons for the 1st Saturday in May. Pedigree matters a lot on the Triple Crown trail. Lets see if the Noble's Promise backers also take heed. That colt will be a very good miler but he'll be wasted trying to hit the board in any triple crown race.

Dublin is still in with a shot at getting up for fourth/fifth place in the Derby. He is tough and battle-ready as a typical Lukas trainee but seems a bit short on talent for 10 furlongs. Uh Oh Bango's under-the-radar quest continues ...sorry Setsuko fans.

At this point the Todd Squad is looking as imposing as ever ...very encouraging performance from Super Saver and Interactif remains somewhat of a sleeper/mystery horse. He undoubtedly has the class to do well in the Derby if he takes to the surface and the Blugrass should not have taken too much out of him.

The Blugrass is a backdoor into the Kentucky Derby and I see no reason to think that Stately Victor will do any better than General Quarters or Monba did in previous years. The Paddy cake crumbled (Paddy O'Prado)...failing to squeeze in at the last minute ...well only another pretender biting the dust (no pun intended but this one should excell on grass instead). Pleasant Prince should have just sat and waited for the Preakness and Belmont. Eskendereya's absence from the Florida Derby flattered his chances somewhat but he is really bred to be very good later on in the season and perhaps even better as a 4YO however, Derby fever can be a serious infection that takes months to recover from for those that are forced to make the cut. As things presently stand (barring bad weather on May 1, 2010) I see no real threat to Esky, Interactif, Rule, Super Saver, Mission Impazible and Discreetly Mine (a Todd Squad sweep) outside of Sidney's Candy, Endorsement and Ice Box ... and perhaps Looking At Lucky (think he'll come up short on stamina but not heart). The Arkansas Derby winner Line Of David can affect the splits but he has no shot of being around at the death in the Derby ...none ...he's a game one nonetheless. I figure they might "send" him with Sidney's Candy tracking like a laser beam until the inevitable occurs ...more anon.

re: April 5, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Dr Drunkinbum — Sat, 10 Apr 2010 23:42:16 GMT

OOPs-I forgot that Pleasant Prince might not have enough earnings. He's a dirt horse-another that was in the wrong race. If he gets in The Derby he still could be tough. This was a nice conditioner 3 weeks out. I've said all along that Odysseus should have gone to Arkansas but he still has an outside shot, and still has talent. Why did they rush him to the front? It shocked me. Still, I supect they may just point him to The Preakness instead. Despite the face that he's a dirt horse that hated poly, I just don't think he's ready for a strong Derby performance.