April 19, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

re: April 19, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Amee — Wed, 28 Apr 2010 12:26:18 GMT

I'm impressed by Stately Victor's come from behind abilities.Many of the other horses this year have already peaked.

I agree with Dave about the filly.For one thing she is no Rachel Alexandra and if they expect her to be they're making a mistake.This year it's boy power not girl power.Jackson Bend looks good.Also glad Rule is out.

re: April 19, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Dave — Tue, 27 Apr 2010 01:13:43 GMT

Hi. I think it`s a shame to put the filly in when there are more deserving horses to run in the Derby. Pletcher is so desperate to win the Derby, he`s putting in all he can. I will say flatout, the filly wont be anywhere near at the end of the race.

re: April 19, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Slew — Mon, 26 Apr 2010 17:43:26 GMT

I prefer to make my fianl picks after watching the post parade. Seems there are a lot of excuses but no work from Endorsement. I am now having doubts about him. Why would you say your horse needs a day off when he has already had at least 4 days off?...and if they don't like the track...what do they expect for Saturday?...same track...same rain...different day.

re: April 19, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Carlos in Cali — Mon, 26 Apr 2010 16:48:04 GMT

The thinning of the herd continues...

Ranagulzion

They say: "Desperate times calls for desperate measures",so who is steering the Tug-boat? LOL.. Your Line of David,Stately Victor & Homeboykris reinforcement duds has me thinking you've gone 'overboard',lost at Sea. Not only are you suffering from Sea-sickness,but of Oceanic deliriousness too. It might be time for you to 'walk the plank' or become a Pletcher dissenter,the ship is sinking matey...aaarrgh!

re: April 19, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Vic S — Mon, 26 Apr 2010 16:19:46 GMT

Well, I'm glad Rule was pulled from the race. For those of you who follow my comments on the Derby horse works, my words about him were "horrid". So that takes a non-contender out of the race and brings a better horse in- Jackson Bend. Glad to know Devil is confirmed, she is working lights out and has a legitimate shot at winning the race. Major major major changes to my Derby Dozen but I'm waiting to post it until Steve posts his new Derby Dozen later today. Stately Victor is my Derby horse!

re: April 19, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

KYFan — Mon, 26 Apr 2010 16:16:22 GMT

rcsmitty here is a link to the list as of 4/18/10 www.bloodhorse.com/.../tidal-pool-last-to-get-into-oaks--graded-list.

Auburnbill like jersey said coldfacts writes a lot but the reason he is hammering Dublin is pretty clear. He doesn't like Lukas.

Same for Forbidden Apple. Scope out

Shandlers blog.

Apple any horse who has won a major stakes as a 2 year old and placed on the board in several preps would be getting this attention. Lukas adds a little more focus to a good colt because he knows how to win the race or at least finish on the board.

If you talk about it that way Lucky won by a nose and was 3rd in his last prep. He had troubled trips both times too. Troubled trips no matter who the runner is can be magnified in the Derby. Baffert seems to have had horses who just seem to get in a bind in the Derby remember several of them who took up in the first turn or got in a bind in other spots. The Lukas horse may get in a bind or he may not. He has proven to be a useful colt and any placing in the Derby is a good day. Winning it is a great day.

re: April 19, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

RiverCitySmitty — Mon, 26 Apr 2010 15:00:12 GMT

Sorry Ranagulzion, but the Todd Squad battleship seems to be springing many leaks and may resemble the Spanish Armada on Saturday. Rule is now out and the filly "supposedly" is a go for the Derby and will not cross-enter. I think the filly that could fare the best against the boys is Blind Luck due to her running style. (Remember I`m a sucker for closers)

Anyone have a link to the filly graded earnings list? Not much info on the Oaks out there.

re: April 19, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Dr Drunkinbum — Mon, 26 Apr 2010 14:52:12 GMT

Zookeeper

Off track quite possible for Derby. My intention is to handicap it pretty much the same and bet a little lighter unless I come up with a key horse or two. Either way I'm not betting too light !! It turns out that Hollywood Park is good to me so far so I don't want to blow too much on The Derby. That's great you got to talk to trainers. There is no one in the world I'd rather talk to other than Steve Haskin, than a trainer or a jockey. With Pro Ride they could cover it when it rains heavy like they do in baseball. The water could be diverted to a drainage system off of the track by bubble or triangular covers that overlap. It's a shame Esky wasn't healthy enough to run. I have great admiration for trainers that scratch their horses when they aren't healthy enough to run. Pletcher takes very good care of his horses. That's why I will always like him even if he does something else I don't like. But I just read that Devil May Care is in The Derby and highly unlikely to be cross entered so that's good.

re: April 19, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

KG — Mon, 26 Apr 2010 14:41:23 GMT

OK, now RULE has been declared too.

There goes my last chance on any KD future bet.

2005 KD Future - Giacomo to WIN in all three pools. Yet, if I'd waited until Derby day I would have gotten equal or much better WIN odds to simply wait until derby day to place wager...and avoid the risk of not running at all.

2009 KD Future - all my money on I Want Revenge. Scratched morning of race.

2010 KD Future - all my money on exacta combos...ESKY and RULE on top of many others. Both declared one week prior to race.

In summary, for me, the KD future bet has become the second worst wager proposition closely behind P6 wagering. Enough of this for me...from now on I'll wait until race day to bet.

re: April 19, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

JerseyBoy — Mon, 26 Apr 2010 14:08:28 GMT

Coldfacts:

You wrote this: "based on a pattern analysis I conducted, no horse from the Raise A Native sire line is likely to win the 2010 derby"

How do define "Raise a Native sire line"? Do you regard Street Sense, a Derby winner, as a product of the Raise a Native sire line?.What about Funny Cide?

What ever you do you cannot change the fact that all a horse has to do to win a race, any race, is finish ahead of the field. Their mothers, fathers and grand parents won't help them or hinder them if they have the talent. There are facts and there are relevant facts. You need to say why a fact is relevant.

re: April 19, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Forbidden Apple — Mon, 26 Apr 2010 13:20:26 GMT

If Dublin had a different trainer we would not even be discussing him so much as a contender.

Ranagulzion,

I made some comments yesterday, but they were not posted. All I can say is that I told you about the front bandages in the Wood. Do not be surprised if Eskendereya never races again. Now Devil May Care is Pletcher's best chance at hitting the board.

6-1 or 8-1 morning line on Awesome Act is unbelievable. This horse should be 15-1. Endorsement and Sidneys Candy now look like very dangerous stalkers.

re: April 19, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Slew — Mon, 26 Apr 2010 13:19:28 GMT

Coldfacts...in the past 43 years? I believe Seattle Slew sired Swale! Both were Ky Derby winners. Also SS sired AP Indy who scratched Derby Morning but won the Belmont.

re: April 19, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Bloodline Bob — Mon, 26 Apr 2010 12:34:48 GMT

1997-1997-1997!

re: April 19, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Coldfacts — Mon, 26 Apr 2010 11:18:54 GMT

Auburnbill,

I lot of poster think I am crazy because I eliminate some horses based on certain historic factors. It is one of the measures I use and I am not fixated on it. Dublin pedigree has a lot of historic negatives. His sire won two leg of the Triple Crown i.e., Preakness & Belmont. Twenty six horses excluding Afleet Alex have won 2 legs of the TC in the last 43 years. A possible 22 had one or more crops to race and none have sired a derby winner. So Dublin’s sire belongs to a category of sires that have had zero success in the derby. His dam was very productive on the track earning $700K. Even in the era of high purses no broodmare with that type of profile has produced a derby winner. Last but not least, based on a pattern analysis I conducted, no horse from the Raise A Native sire line is likely to win the 2010 derby. Can an exceptional horse overcome those negatives? Certainly! Is Dublin an exceptional horse? No.

In spite of his negatives, I think Dublin can be competitive in the derby if the blinkers are removed. This is just an opinion based on the fact that he won his only graded and last race without them. They were affixed to correct his bearing out issues in the stretch but they seem to have created another problem. He use to show tactical speed and he is now dropping far back in his races. His trainer stated that he is a blinkers horse which is odd as he has never won in them. However, he is a Hall of Famer and should know. He got tired in his last two races and was one pace to the line and showed absolutely no fight. To win on the Churchill Downs track at 10F requires a lot of stamina and determination and he has not displayed a lot of those components. It’s a horse race and anything can happen. One man’s opinion however convincing, is just an opinion and must be combined with others.

re: April 19, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Ranagulzion — Mon, 26 Apr 2010 07:19:17 GMT

Eskendereya may be out of the Derby (very sad indeed) but the Todd Squad battleship isn't about to sink. Yes it has hit an "ice berg" with Esky's withdrawal but Mission Impazible, Super Saver, Devil May Care, Discretely Mine and Rule are formidable deputies. Also the squad could be further reinforced with a solid work from Interactif. Given the uncertainties of this wonderful sport I think that it would be prudent to strap on a few life boats at this point, just in case ...Mike Relva,Coldfacts, Forbidden Apple, Carlos in Cali, Draynay and Barb Dwyer come looking for my carcas (LOL).

I'll bring on board three non-Pletcher vessels, namely the Line of David speed boat (for a clean getaway), the Stately Victor canoe (a Ghostzapper could help) and the Homeboykris drive-by-gunboat (at scandalous/wicked odds).

re: April 19, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Zookeeper — Mon, 26 Apr 2010 03:28:17 GMT

Dr Drunkinbum,

Joel Rosario is a very good young jockey. I like him a lot. Talking to one of the trainers at SA, I was told that he's a very hard worker, has no ego problem, and does everything the way he's instructed, if at all possible. A rising star? I think so!

This is a tough jockey colony. It's hard to rise to the top here, since it is already occupied by so many great riders. I have my favorites and Rosario is one of them.

BTW, when I mention talking with a trainer, I don't want to give the impression that I'm an insider. I'm just a fan and I have found that if the timing is right, most trainers will graciously have a conversation with people like me. I think it's great! In what other sport can you exchange a few words with a coach?

Now that Eskendereya is sadly out of the Derby and that some horses are working lights out, my list has evolved a great deal. I'm waiting for more reports from Mr. Haskin and others (thank you so much!) and the blessed post position draw to start putting my bets together. One strategy for a dry fast track and another for a sloppy track. The condition I dislike the most is when the track is muddy. Most horses look like their feet are stuck in goo when the track is like that. My betting will be very light if the track turns out sticky on May 1st. I simply won't know what to do... and when that happens, the red light flashes: Bet small and have fun!!!

re: April 19, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Vic S — Mon, 26 Apr 2010 03:26:38 GMT

Speedball - nice choice there.

Dr Drunkinbum - It's not a problem, I'll keep the report up. To me Rule is definately a throw out, he looked awful, probably the worst work of the Derby contenders. He literally was sliding all over the place and couldn't get his feet out from under him, was being asked and MI was hardly trying and beat him easy workwise.

re: April 19, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

nmhiplains — Sun, 25 Apr 2010 23:40:00 GMT

Eskendereya out of the Derby with a swollen leg from the ankle up is just one more reason all these entrys should have a INFRARED camera scan the day of the gate draw-Lets make sure there standing on sound bone when they leave the post on Derby day----I looked at the video of his win in the Wood and like Coldfacts thought this is a big horse pounding the track HARD

Its hard to spot a hairline fracture by running you hand down a cannon bone---How many coach's have wrapped a basketball players ankle and put him back in the game ---Next game he's on the sideline wearing a cast and using crutches.

re: April 19, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Zookeeper — Sun, 25 Apr 2010 22:33:29 GMT

Dr Drunkinbum,

Originally I felt the same way re Devil May Care on/off the Derby depending on the draw. But then, I realized that her connections aren't concerned about other horses, only their own filly and her best chance of success. It does seem cold, I agree. But horse racing is a tough world in spite of its gentlemanly aura.

I feel bad for Jackson Bend and his connections. Not wishing any bad luck on anybody, but maybe someone else will step out before Wednesday. I don't see JC winning the Derby, but he seems to always finish on the board. If he gets in, he will not be a toss for me.

Santa Anita's training track is dirt. If your wish came through it would be a good place to recycle the Pro Ride surface if they revert to dirt on the main track. However, the drainage would have to be worked on as well: more $$$, a rare commodity these days at Magna and all over the racing world. Don't hold your breath, I think Synthetics are here to stay for quite a while.

I notice a definite lessening of "Cali trashing" on these blogs. Maybe the recent successes of our horses has quieted some of the loudest "poly haters". I don't know enough yet to have an educated opinion on the subject. There are so many different "facts" advanced pro or con, that it seems a good idea to me to wait before reversing prematurely what was ordered in such haste. Just MHO. :)

re: April 19, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Dr Drunkinbum — Sun, 25 Apr 2010 21:47:32 GMT

Zookeeper

I really like Joel Rosario. I think he's a future superstar. Love his style of riding, usually has perfect timing.

re: April 19, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Newbie Player — Sun, 25 Apr 2010 20:41:09 GMT

I don't know much about handicapping, so would this tri-wheel be too awful bad? Even if you don't agree with these picks, should I play or arrange them differently? Thanks for the help.

LAL, Super Saver, Awesome Act.

with Sidneys Candy, Ice Box, L.A.L., Nobles Promise.

with L.A.L, Endorsement,Line of David, Devil may care.

re: April 19, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Auburnbill — Sun, 25 Apr 2010 19:51:07 GMT

Coldfacts,

I believe you have stated before that Dublin has no chance of winning. Why? I honestly want to know because I have heavy bets on him in future and am thinking about ways to cover. If it is simply because his worst races were at Churchill, I am not as concerned because of the breathing issues he was having at that time.

re: April 19, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

Dr Drunkinbum — Sun, 25 Apr 2010 18:59:42 GMT

Great report Steve. It appears to me that I have to take a closer look at Line Of David. He was on my toss list. Reevaluation needed there.

Vic S and Workout Inspector-Thanks for your workout reports. Keep them coming. Rule was originally a toss then I was on the fence. Sounds like he could be a safe toss. Mission Impazible has moved up. These workouts are important for signs of who might be peaking.

re: April 19, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

datflippinrabbit — Sun, 25 Apr 2010 16:56:24 GMT

When is Endorsement going to work,he has got to be in there at the end with a legitimate shot at a good price too,with ESQ now out his chances are even better,backstrech seems to be mumbling about Paddy the gray.

re: April 19, 2010 - Presented by Darby Dan

KG — Sun, 25 Apr 2010 15:55:05 GMT

Geez...Eskendereya out of the Derby. Two years in a row that I've held KD future tickets (Pool 1/2/3) that gave me great confidence only to have them evaporate into worthless paper.

I understand the risk of wagering well in advance of race day; but to have these eliminations so close to the race is definately frustrating, now I'm so uncertain on how to wager on derby day. Last year I'm all set on I Want Revenge that I go to Los Alamitos early morning to load up and then find out that IWR was scratched...I really had no back up plan for my wagers...so went with Dunkirk...at least now I've got a week to regroup.

Ouch...next year I may wait until KD day to place any wager...gotta kick the jinx.