January 31, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

re: January 31, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Ranagulzion — Fri, 11 Feb 2011 09:38:43 GMT

Carlos in Cali,

Your post 10 Feb 2011 8:24PM is another of your apologetics but doesn't paint an accurate picture of the testimony of the Donn Handicap about AP Indy. He had 2 sons (El Daafer and Ron The Greek) and 2 grandsons (I Want Revenge and Fly Down) in a field of nine (9) Grade 1 contestants (talk about surrounding/ innundating a field), yet his best finish was fourth (IWR). BTW my pick to win the race was IWR, so you see I'm not an AP hater as some may think.

In this year's Triple Crown his best prospects are Tapizar (great grandson), Dialed-in (grandson), Sweet Ducky (grandson) and Supreme Ruler (grandson). Interestingly, the Pulpit branch that produced Ice Box last year is responsible for Tapizar and Sweet Ducky, the Mineshaft branch that gave us Fly Down and Discreetly Mine, is responsible for Dialed-In, and the Stephen Got Even branch that produced First Dude is represented by (under-the-radar) Supreme Ruler. Watch out for the latter at Oaklawn Park. You can toss Astrology, Shadow warrior and all sons of Bernardini. They will flatter and then deceive you Bro.

Don't you find it amazing how some sire lines have all the luck repeatedly in the stampede, that you call the Derby (LOL). As a once astute handicapper, you should realise that it doesn't pay to stick with "lack of luck", "no luck" or "bad luck". Last year I never liked Looking at Lucky but in spite of all his bad luck, he, a "lucky" RAN line offspring (going by your way of assessment) still managed to WIN the Preakness ahead of ...you know who ...First Dude. Sorry Carlos, you're out of luck again. Anyway lets continue to enjoy the ride.

re: January 31, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Carlos in Cali — Fri, 11 Feb 2011 01:24:23 GMT

Ranagulzion,Re: the Donn.

Fly Down was coming off a tough 3yo campaign & a 3month lay-off,their goal early this year is the DWC in late March,I'd say he wasn't fully cranked..

El Daafer is not and has never been in that league,plus he wants to go further than 9f.

I Want Revenge was coming off yet another long lay-off(6months) and he still ran a tremendous race to finish 4th missing 3rd by a head. Considering his devastating injury the day of the Derby in 09',I'm wishing he stays sound enough to show some resemblance of his Brilliant sophomore Spring campaign that was cut short.

BTW: AP Indys' finished in the money in all 3 TC races last year,in case you forgot.

re: January 31, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Ranagulzion — Thu, 10 Feb 2011 23:05:52 GMT

Carlos in Cali,

Mucho Macho Man is a June foal therefore he shouldn't be written off. Also, I think that the Holy Bull was a very good Derby prep for the top five colts in that race. Sweet Ducky and Gourmet Dinner are tough competitors, although the latter's stamina is suspect going ten furlongs. The Gulfstream preps are the toughest of all the Triple Crown circuit therefore I wouldn't blame or mock MMM's connection for seeking easier qualifying money.

As for being surrounded by the AP Indys, you should read my previous post. The harder they come the harder they fall. Quality is the key, not quantity my friend. They (the Seattle Slew line) are the last "bastions" of a fading Bold Ruler line due to years of misjudgment by breeders. I think that Donn Handicap results tell a tail about AP Indy. Count how many of his sons/grandsons were present and tell me how they fared. Therefore, be careful about how you rely on the large number of AP Indys in the Derby.

re: January 31, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Alex'sBigFan — Thu, 10 Feb 2011 22:53:45 GMT

Carlos in Cali,

You said the key word "stampede." It pretty much comes down to which one is resilient enough to get bumped, not get flustered, gather himself back up, and go on to win.

Of course that theory gets thrown out the window if Calvin sees daylight and goes for the rail again. Maybe they should shorten the field to 15, wouldn't it be safer? 15 is more of a race and less of a stampede. Let them change the criteria for entering somehow so the best 15 athletes are entered? Just a thought, probably never happen.

Your "Notso Macho Man" name was pretty cute!

re: January 31, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Carlos in Cali — Thu, 10 Feb 2011 20:38:53 GMT

Fla: Looks like Mucho Macho Man is getting the "hell out of dodge" and shipping to the Fair Grounds in order to avoid the likes of Dialed In, who blew right past him in the Holy Bull and To Honor and Serve who toyed with him in both the Nashua & Remsen.

Cali: Looks like 2 of the West Coasts' leading 2yo's of 2010(Comma' to the Top,JP's Gusto) are also "high tailing-it" and avoiding the "New Kid on the block" Tapizar. Not that the former 2 are any threat to win the Derby anyways.

Ranagulzion, I think you better undo your placement of Notso Macho Man on your Derby list my friend,ha! Also,it looks like the AP Indys' have surrounded you & your "Mo'-jo" with so much talent that it has you at a loss for words....UM,UM,UM,UM,UM,UM. LOL!

Shalom in the home my friend and be thankful that the 20-horse fields in the Derby have turned it into a stampede and not a true gauge of superiority.

re: January 31, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Ranagulzion — Thu, 10 Feb 2011 19:10:22 GMT

Forbidden Apple,

Consider this point. It has been 34 years since a Bold Ruler line colt won the Kentucky Derby. Could it be that all the owners/breeders have sold out completely to the Seattle Slew branch via AP Indy, totally neglecting/ forsaking branches such as Spectacular Bid/ Bold Bidder, Foolish Pleasure/ What A Pleasure, all of which have Derby-winner-producing influences? These other Bold Ruler line sons only appear periodically on the Dam side of Derby aspirants. Thats something to think about my friend. Seems to me that breeders have put all of their "Bold Ruler eggs" into one "Seattle Slew/AP Indy basket" and the chicken have come home to roost (pardon the pun).

re: January 31, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Ranagulzion — Thu, 10 Feb 2011 18:20:01 GMT

Pat,

That was a funny comment "I want to see if the Queen got the right guy." I think that the best "guys" for Zenyatta are in Europe, namely, Galileo and Sea The Stars. These are Northern dancer line stallions that are sons of the great broodmare Urban Sea, carrying strains of highly regarded German bloodlines. You're gonna be disappointed because there's no way Bernadini is going to be a first crop Derby-winner-producing sire. Bernadini looks like a very promising sire but history and his sire's genes are against him doing it this year.

Footlick,

I like your objectivity.

Forbidden Apple,

Many owners and breeders have fallen for the hype.

re: January 31, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Footlick — Thu, 10 Feb 2011 15:57:10 GMT

Ranagulzion can defend himself, but I do have to say that even though AP Indy is an elite sire, he does not usually get precocious two year olds and has usually later developing three year olds. Of cpourse there will always be exceptions, but this is as a whole. There was an article in the Blood Horse in their series of profiling sires by trainers and most trainers said this about AP Indy foals. They like them as race horses but they are slower to come around. He is not knocking AP Indy as a sire, just as a sire of what the racing world calls precocious horses.

re: January 31, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Pat — Thu, 10 Feb 2011 10:38:46 GMT

I want to see a Bernardini kid win the KY Derby in his first crop, so I'll root for To Honor And Serve & Stay Thirsty. I want to see if the Queen got the right guy.

re: January 31, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Forbidden Apple — Wed, 09 Feb 2011 16:39:25 GMT

Ranagulzion,

It must be that owners and breeders are all crazy to involve A.P. Indy in their business models. You are completely wrong here, I can not see any reason to call him anything other than spectacular. If Uncle Mo was by A.P. Indy you would be calling him the best sire in the history of horse racing.

re: January 31, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Footlick — Wed, 09 Feb 2011 04:18:46 GMT

Ranagulzion- Also Soldat for one of the Guineas would be nice, if he doesn't pan out for a shot at our Derby after all.

re: January 31, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Footlick — Wed, 09 Feb 2011 04:16:42 GMT

Ranagulzion- That would be very fun to see.

re: January 31, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

JerseyBoy — Wed, 09 Feb 2011 00:47:54 GMT

Great list again Steve. It looks like Cal Nation might be this year's late-bloomer.

Cal Nation ran 7 furlongs first time out in 1:22.02 carrying 122 lbs. Older $62,500 allowance optional claimers ran the distance in 1:21.92 when carrying 3 lbs less.(The track record is 1:20.88).

I am still waiting until Pool 1 to make a choice.

re: January 31, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Alex'sBigFan — Tue, 08 Feb 2011 22:19:04 GMT

Slew,

I have to agree that the bluest of the bluebloods alone won't guarantee a Derby win. I look for a "consistency" factor, and the one I think has the stamina and wherewithall to get himself out of the Derby traffic jam. Alex himself got bumped but got himself a length away from Giacomo for a respectable third, which cost him the Triple Crown. Lucky got a raw deal last year from post 1. I was right on the money with Barbaro, Street Sense, and Big Brown, let's see what I do this year???????

Mike R.,

It is a day later and I am still giggling about Pletcher saddling up a donkey for a race! I can see it now, people are gathered in the paddock and over marches the Pletcher platoon with donkey in tow. The fans are scratching their heads and looking mighty perplexed and saying, "gee, this guy is good but this is ridiculous!" hee, hee, hee, hee, haw!

re: January 31, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Slew — Tue, 08 Feb 2011 13:34:02 GMT

It's odd. Some folks post a simple comment. Some folks post a treatise, mostly attacking another poster. Some just don't get the big picture; some do.

All the theories, bloodline studies, weak conclusions, and stubborn arguments all fly out the window when your favorite horse draws post position #1 in a 20 horse field on Derby Day.

What's really necessary on Kentucky Derby day is LUCK coupled with a sturdy horse able to withstand the bumping and jostling, and the heart to overcome it all.

re: January 31, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Footlick — Tue, 08 Feb 2011 03:10:08 GMT

Thanks John T. I had the wrong one.

re: January 31, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Ranagulzion — Tue, 08 Feb 2011 02:52:49 GMT

Footlick,

I wish the Ramsays would get adventurous and send that Queensplatekitten across the pond to the Epsom Derby. He has looked awesome on both polytrack and turf and has me thinking NIJINSKY!!!

Forbidden Apple,

I do not hate any horse. My opinions on AP Indy has been shaped by years of observation and analysis. I've had to dwell on the point a lot because of push-back from sentimental AP fans that dislike unfavourable information about their beloved under-achieving classic sire.

re: January 31, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Leslie — Tue, 08 Feb 2011 02:10:39 GMT

The Super Bowl of Horse racing is now beginning with the triple crown races. I am excited regarding Uncle Mo and Dialed In as contenders for the these million dollar races. Waiting to win exactas, trifectas and superfectas. Money, Money and more money. Thank You.

re: January 31, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

AustinPhotoFinishGirl! — Mon, 07 Feb 2011 23:47:09 GMT

Kentucky Oaks!

Go Girls!!!!!!!

Awesome Feather

Turbulent Decent

Zazu (The Moss's Filly)

re: January 31, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Alex'sBigFan — Mon, 07 Feb 2011 23:34:02 GMT

Mike R.,

That was too funny! Thanks for that laugh too! I am trying to visualize Pletcher decked out in his suit, very dapper, bringing out a donkey to the saddling area!!!! Oh my goodness my mascara is running down my cheeks from laughing so hard! Thanks Mike!!!!

re: January 31, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Footlick — Mon, 07 Feb 2011 16:49:33 GMT

Ranagulzion-Queensplatekitten sure looked good.

Quiet American 55- it's not what Indian Charlie ran or could have run, I am gauging it more on what his offspring do. They just don't seem like they want to go more than 9 furlongs in general. Uncle Mo certainly could be the exception but we won't know until May.

re: January 31, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Fran Loszynski — Mon, 07 Feb 2011 15:15:34 GMT

Jean In Chicago

You put me to shame as a horseracing fan! Wow! You know your stuff. You also have a heart for horseracing and what it really is. I too, wish whoever wins does it safely and we have a great horseracing year. Go Elite Alex.

To Alex's Big Fan:

If Elite Alex has any of the killer instinct with heart his Dad has -Calvin better be the one to hold on tight because his kick in speed and Tim Ritchey's expertise will prevail and I think Calvin being the super jockey he is can adjust quite readily. He's already in sync with him and who knows that day the rail be the "thing" to do. Go Elite Alex! Go Alexandra Rylee

re: January 31, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

austinbnike — Mon, 07 Feb 2011 14:16:12 GMT

Here's my "Derby Dozen" as of 02/07/11:

Though, I'm leaving out some of the obvious contenders like Uncle Mo, BAT, Jaycito, etc.

1) To Honor And Serve - I've been high on this guy since last October. Superb pedigree! Comes out of a great female line, family 4 (4-r, Cub Mare).

2) Elite Alex - Love this guy's pedigree and I picked his daddy out in his 2-yo campaign after I saw his awesome late kick. Also comes out of a great female line, family 4 (4-d, Manganese).

3) Dialed In - Have been high on him since his 1st outing. Have always liked Mineshaft and his progeny.

4) Tapizar - Love Deputy Minister as a bms! Could be a very dangerous 3-yo as we near the 1st Saturday in May! Comes out of a strong branch, family 8 (8-c, Woodbine).

5) Sway Away - Love this guy's pedigree! Has great potential. Can't wait to see him race here in a couple weeks.

6) Machen - Awesome race last out! Nice pedigree, too!

7) Casper's Touch - Absolutely love this guy's pedigree especially for the TC trail! Should only get better in the next few months.

8) Rogue Romance - Very tough runner! Great tail-female line going back to one of the best broodmares of the 20th century, Plucky Leige.

9) Brethren - Super Saver's half-brother is very talented! Obviously, has a great pedigree and arguably one of the best tail-female lines going back to the great La Troienne.

10) Wilkinson - Nice win in the Lecomte. I liked his daddy a lot. Could be a dangerous 'lil 3-yo colt.

11) Bench Points - Very nice pedigree through his dam, Mo Chuisle by Free House whom I loved. Has a lot of stamina influences including Deputy Minister and Vaguely Noble.

12) Manicero - Nice 3-yo colt who has 4 wins in 5 starts. Comes out of a great female line, family 8 (8-c, Woodbine).

re: January 31, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Dr Drunkinbum — Mon, 07 Feb 2011 08:47:32 GMT

I don't understand why Boys At Toscanova is on any Derby list. I think it would be a shame if he is in The Derby. He should be pointed to the BC Dirt Mile or maybe even the sprint. His ideal might be 7f but I'm hoping he's a miler. He's not a 10fer. Let's strengthen the sprint and mile BC races by running horses where they belong before they get ruined. I still say that winning the BC Mile is better than finishing last in the Classic.

re: January 31, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

draynay — Sun, 06 Feb 2011 23:01:37 GMT

Watch Cal Nation. Very impressive win Saturday.