February 7, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

re: February 7, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Slew — Mon, 14 Feb 2011 14:40:53 GMT

I don't envy you Steve, having to pare down to 12, favorites who have either not yet run or who have thrown in the occasional clunker. I have to think, at Churchill it's Borel, and at GG it's Russell Baze. It's not safe to bet against them. I think Beamer holds much promise, and he's just practicing. As a very young May colt, I don't know if he'll be ready for the Derby, but I think he may eventually be a real stand out. CTTT is off my list, but Tapizar is staying. His run looked like a bad imitation of Presious Passion. (maybe he just had a bad hair day; hope it doesn't become a habit). There are also quite a few promising fillies running who have much smoother action than many of the colts and some fast times. They stay on my list until I'm certain they'll take on the Oaks. The most efficient strides I have seen to date have come from To Honor and Serve and Dancinginherdreams. A bit less than 3 months to the Derby, and I am as confused as ever, but starting to narrow down my list. Riveting Reason looked strong, but he has been inconsistent. I'm not certain about his promise, but he looks like a colt to watch closely.

re: February 7, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

txhorsefan — Mon, 14 Feb 2011 02:49:18 GMT

Keelerman - thank you for clarifying those times they were posting on my tv screen in the RLLewis - I thought that was amazing and not really possible, but there it was on tv - lol! Yeah, I am pretty clueless, but at least now I know their displayed times were not right - whew! Like Linda said every time I read this blog I am learning more in my Thoroughbred education. And I think you all for your comments that teach me! I loved the races yesterday and thought there were some big surprises when the favorites, the hyped up horses didn't perform as expected. I did think Brethren sure looked like it was a very easy win for him and isn't that something you would like to see?

re: February 7, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Bloodline Bob — Mon, 14 Feb 2011 02:37:31 GMT

On 2-8-11 I mentioned 10 sire's that I was focusing on. There is currently 11 of the 364 Triple Crown nominees that are from those 10 sires. Those horses names are as follows: Birdway(STREET CRY),Classic Legacy(MACHO UNO),Crying Out Loud(STREET CRY),Dance City(CITY ZIP),Fort Larned(E DUBAI),Isn't He Perfect(PLEASANTLY PERFECT),Mucho Macho Man(MACHO UNO),Perfect Coconut(PLEASANTLY PERFECT),Poseidon's Warrior(SPEIGHTSTOWN),Private Prize(PURE PRIZE),Red Maserati(SONGANDAPRAYER). These are by no means my Ky.Derby picks as of now. Just food for minor thoughts.

re: February 7, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Dr Drunkinbum — Mon, 14 Feb 2011 01:16:05 GMT

Matthew W.

I agree that Rosario is the best right now. Gomez is really good too, especially with a relaxed horse.

re: February 7, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Dr Drunkinbum — Mon, 14 Feb 2011 01:13:07 GMT

Keelerman

I was highly impressed with Tapizar in the walking ring with his champion's demeanor, and even more impressed with how hard he tried to keep up at a point that he was dead tired. He convinced me more than ever that he is a champion but I'd me tempted to take him off of The Trail and point for shorter races down the line culminating with the BC. This is not your normal lousy performance and done type horse I don't believe. Thanks for the list. With Oaklawns's weather problems I'm not worried about Elite Alex. If he's not ready then they might scratch and wait for the next one or run him anyway of he's close to ready. The problem is that he's such a trier that you don't want to run him when he is less than really ready. Too risky for a possible star. It remains to be seen just how talented he is but I sure like him. And Borel. Yep, narrowing the list is tough. There are quite a few others I like also. Another month will help. Maybe.

1. The Factor

2. Uncle Mo

3. Elite Alex

4. Dialed In

5. Soldat

6. Jaycito

7. Beamer

8. Smash

9. Break Up The Game

10. Runflatout

11. Sway Away

12. Rogue Romance

13. Silver Medallion

14. Anthony's Cross

15. Quail Hill

16. Riveting Reason

re: February 7, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Footlick — Mon, 14 Feb 2011 00:56:56 GMT

sherpa- you may be right but I need to see him run against something. I'm not sure how strong of a "good" I would give that field, imo. Not saying he isn't classy, just saying I need to be shown.

re: February 7, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Karen in Texas — Mon, 14 Feb 2011 00:46:47 GMT

I have been worried about Elite Alex as well, but then I assumed that the weather conditions in Arkansas were keeping horses off the track for any reason. The ground was apparently frozen until the last couple of days. Oaklawn has missed so many days of racing since the meet began!

re: February 7, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Matthew W — Sun, 13 Feb 2011 19:50:47 GMT

Was impressed with Asmussen's Silver Medallion at Golden Gate, also with the third place horse, who will need earnings/will contend in other preps at a price--that race, over 1 1/8 Tapeta, was won by a horse who looks like he'll get the 10th furlong, there are so many this year with that question mark....

re: February 7, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Matthew W — Sun, 13 Feb 2011 19:37:40 GMT

Bet on Talamo five times yesterday--not a sniff---had I bet him every race I wouldda been a big winner! Played three races at Los Al and got all my losses back on Defiant in 7th race at 10-1, just a little reminder that in this game things can change fast--(I'm talkin about starting the day with $47 and finishing with $48, I may be broke but I'm still in this game!)like I wonder what the "Phantom Plunger" was thinking, when Tapizar was loading into the gates...was it his two blow out wins in superb times/or was it his other three races, when he looked anything but a 1-5 stakes horse! At any rate, when they sprung them, and he had to look at the outside horse cross over to the lead, Tappy said "no-no"--and he whisked GoGo to the lead---you could just see Rosario, on Anthony's Cross, just relaxing and waiting--Tapizar looked beaten as soon as Gomez couldn't reign him in, which was about the fourth stride...I thought he would dominate the scene around here, now it's wide open, perhaps Rosario could get his head back, I mean, Gomez had him tight right outta the gate, that is one tough horse to ride/I think he wins by five if he could relax, perhaps you just let him go out like King Glorious or The Diver, some horses will not rate....I would look, seriously, to a jock who could let him go and sit chilly, trying not to fight him, let him do what he wants to do, talking to him with your hands and hoping for the best--THAT is how you ride that kind of horse, I have seen many stone cold front runners run their best when they run FAST early--like they WANT to--they do not always win but when they do, wow! Certainly not the bridge jumper's kind of play--a horse who would be a 5% show better's dream would be a Blind Luck type, who by the way many of my friends are picking against today--all in all it's been a wonderfull weekend at The GREATEST Race Place--unbelievable weather--unbelievable riders out here, right now: Joel Rosario is the best rider, maybe the best I have seen, I compare him to Pincay, he gathers his horse without missing a beat--he doesn't lose horse/he gains horse throughout the race--so much he does well and now he's getting better and better on the lead, which I thought was something he needed to work on...Rosario, Bajarano AND Talamo (don't count him out, he is as good a front running jock as Mr Day/Mr Shoe), are three who will be at the top for decades to come, and Rosario is the best jockey in the world....

re: February 7, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

-Keelerman — Sun, 13 Feb 2011 18:53:29 GMT

Dr. D;

I agree about Monzon. I was very high on him prior to the Sam F. Davis, but his poor performance disappointed me greatly. It also make me wonder just how good J J's Lucky Train is.

Tapizar is going to have to learn to rate -- I can't see him winning the Kentucky Derby running the way he does. He obviously has talent, and I really like him, but there's no way he will succeed at longer distances if he absolutely insists on having the lead. However, I was impressed with how hard he fought in the homestretch. Even after being passed by Anthony's Cross he really tried to reclaim the lead. I believe that he really wanted to win the race.

Here is my Kentucky Derby Top Twenty:

1 Dialed In

2 To Honor and Serve

3 Uncle Mo

4 Brethren

5 Jaycito

6 Elite Alex

7 Santiva

8 Soldat

9 Clubhouse Ride

10 Machen

11 Rogue Romance

12 Anthony's Cross

13 Stay Thirsty

14 Casper's Touch

15 Silver Medallion

16 Turbulent Descent

17 Riveting Reason

18 Mucho Macho Man

19 Shackleford

20 Tapizar

It's a tough list to compile! There are ten or fifteen other horses that I really like, but I can't include everyone!

I am a bit worried about Elite Alex. He has not worked out since January 30th. I can't see him making the Southwest Stakes with only a little more than a week to get ready. Hopefully he is fine.

-Keelerman

re: February 7, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Karen in Texas — Sun, 13 Feb 2011 18:42:14 GMT

It'll be interesting to see how Steve A. responds to Tapizar's performance yesterday. He never settled and seemed less than focused on the race to me--maybe looking at something off the track. Assuming he's not injured, maybe blinkers would help.

Not sure what to make of Beamer in the Sam Davis, but Monzon doesn't seem to be a Derby horse at this point.

re: February 7, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Linda in Texas — Sun, 13 Feb 2011 18:34:47 GMT

Sherpa and Paula Higgins, thanks, if you hear of the name of the mare in the paddock with Z and PQ, please post it. She is going to need a tag also.

Brethren ran nicely, but i will have to see more competition.

Beamer, i am not giving up on.

Early races enable all trainer's plenty of time to correct issues

before May.

Fun watching the races yesterday, especially when the ones not touted to win, did.

Be safe. And to all the guys on here, don't forget tomorrow is Valentines Day and same goes to their spouses and significant others!

re: February 7, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

sherpa — Sun, 13 Feb 2011 18:34:22 GMT

Footlick, I think the

Davis was a case of a superior horse making a 'good' field look like dogs. Slow to start from the far outside, Brethren came home geared down. He has a lovely, smooth stride and the distance/first-time 2 turns were non-issues for him. IMVHO, he passed this test with an ease and classiness that moves him into the top 5. Flawless ride by RD, too.

re: February 7, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

JOE — Sun, 13 Feb 2011 18:23:36 GMT

I would of projected a better ride from the jockey that rode Sunday Silence but seeing that Thirtyfirststreet did stumble badly and almost went down I have to not count this race and see if Thirtyfirststreet can get one more shot at a grade one stakes race with the same amount of ground or a litte longer to punch his ticket. I do not think that was the game plan of Thirtyfirststreets trainer to have him come out last so when he did it was a case of just watch and see what happens. ( It was a case of having to much ground to make up the entire race and never had a chance to settle in on the rail ) I would send that horse to the Lou. Derby and see if that jockey can give him a rail scimming ride in the 2 or 3 spot and then pop out to show us his late kick after the switch over.

re: February 7, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Rachel — Sun, 13 Feb 2011 17:32:25 GMT

I won't throw out CTT on 1 race, I mean it's his 3 year old debut after 10 starts as a 2 year old...he's run 11 times in how many (few) months? Won a Grade 1's already, plus other graded race and stakes...

It was obvious coming around far turn...he took it really wide, for a horse like him to not want to take the corner, he didn't look like himself the whole race... JMO

re: February 7, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Footlick — Sun, 13 Feb 2011 16:25:48 GMT

Just to keep this in perspective, it is Feb 13th not the last prep before the Derby. Tapizar can certainly rebound from this and has plenty of time to do this. Why take him off of a Derby list because of a race in February. Let's see what he does in March and April before making a judgement.

re: February 7, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Slew — Sun, 13 Feb 2011 14:59:51 GMT

Brethren may have looked outstanding, but the fractions were a bit slow..1:38 mile... but so were the other races at TB. Tapizar was uncontrollable. He still holds promise, but the trainer really has his work cut out for him. Riveting Reason looked the most promising, but he can be inconsistent. Anthony's Cross really dug in well to maintain his lead. The RBL showed the best times. I found the El Camino to be terribly slow, and unimpressive.

re: February 7, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

JOE — Sun, 13 Feb 2011 12:10:08 GMT

A bad atart for Thirtyfirststreet and a terrible ride.

re: February 7, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Coldfacts — Sun, 13 Feb 2011 06:57:03 GMT

Comments posted in 1st Derby Dozen blog:

TAPIZAR: Similar A P Indy/Northern Dancer pedigree cross as THAS and has the similar negatives cited above. Displays far more speed than his pedigree suggest and must be deficient in the stamina department. No problem with #3 ranking

Wow! The sires of Tapizar and Santivo bred 174 and 176 mares respectively. Bear in mind the mares served would be either marginally or considerably higher. Based on my policy I would not give Tapizar and Santivo a ghost of a chance to win the derby unless I had evidence they were the products of early servers.

COMMA TO THE TOP: This colt does not have a derby pedigree by any stretch of the imagination. Does not merit being in the dozen (Pretender)

Comma to the Top would be ideal but he does not have a derby pedigree and was coming back to the field rapidly in the Cash Call.

Comments posted in 2nd Derby Dozen blog:

I have not seen the Lewis field but I cannot but wonder if there are not better colts in CA than everybody’s beating stick Clubhouse Ride. Remember Clubhouse Ride came within 2L of Tapizar at the top stretch and failed to maintain his challenge in spite of the fact that Tapizer was tiring in the last sixteenth.

If Tapizar could only beat the moderate to average Clubhouse Ride by 5L he is not that good.

It’s not difficult to defeat Clubhouse Ride and it is certainly not an achievement that should propel any colt to stardom.

re: February 7, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Footlick — Sun, 13 Feb 2011 05:20:52 GMT

I like Comma to the Top as a horse, but he never was a Derby horse. Just a nice consistent horse who will win alot if the distance is right. Who knows about Tapizar. He just never settled. Could easily be a throw out race. I need to see Brethren beat somebody before I know how good he really is. He does win impressively though.

re: February 7, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Dr Drunkinbum — Sun, 13 Feb 2011 04:43:37 GMT

Keelerman

I saw those splits on the screen also and was quite confused since it sure didn't look like they were running nearly that fast.(Has anyone run that fast?) Tapizar looked like a champ pre-race and I'm sure he thought he was just going to go out there and kick their butts. They forgot to tell him that it was 9f. Going to be interesting to see what they do with him now and if Gomez keeps the mount, although Gomez has bigger fish to fry.(Still has other talented options.) I'm not saying it was his fault at all, but I'd make a change simply because of what happened and the horse may lose confidence in him. I'm probably one of the few that still isn't convinced that Brethren is one of the top Derby horses. Beamer is still green. I liked his race, and love his ped and trainer. Silver Medallion was a HTW but as " a very talented turf horse." The top three in the Lewis all have a shot at progressing. The Derby Dozen just got tougher. I lost two today- Monzon and Tapizar. I lost all faith in Monzon, and some faith in Tapizar but I still believe he is talented. Needs work. Was too sharp for that race for sure. Never could relax. May have needed a blowout the day before. Can you post your Derby Dozen this week. I'm curious.

re: February 7, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

sherpa — Sun, 13 Feb 2011 04:37:56 GMT

wow, some really interesting results today.

I wouldn't throw Tapizar or Comma off the contenders list because of one bad race, but neither lived up to his hype on this particular day. Both could come back and run lights out in one of the meaningful (money-wise) races in the next month & 1/2, so we'll have to wait and see if today was defining.

I thought Brethren looked really classy in the Davis. Might be better than bro.

The Risen Star next Sat. is shaping up to be an important prep. Names from the watch-list who look probable are Rogue Romance, Santiva, Machen, Mucho Macho Man, Justin Phillips and Decisive Moment, and Wilkinson is possible. More juggling of Derby Dozen names will likely ensue. The speculation and revisions keep this season so exciting!!!

Linda in Tx - have been meaning to say what a loving gesture it was to order that tag for PQ. I've seen in your writing that you're a natural Empath, a rare and special gift. I'm sure PQ is feeling very perky with her new spangle. So kind of you!

re: February 7, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

-Keelerman — Sun, 13 Feb 2011 01:02:21 GMT

Coldfacts;

Congratulations! You were absolutely right regarding Riveting Reason in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes. He didn't win, but he certainly outran his odds! Good job!

Steve;

I think that your next Derby Dozen is going to look quite a bit different. . . I know mine will! I was very disappointed in both Tapizar and Comma to the Top. On the other hand, Brethren ran huge in the Sam F. Davis Stakes and looks like a serious Triple Crown contender.

By the way, while watching the simulcast of the Robert B. Lewis Stakes this afternoon I thought for a moment that I was watching one of the most remarkable performance in the history of Thoroughbred racing. Apparently an error occurred while they were posting the fractions, for the video showed that Tapizar had run his first quarter mile in :19.11. He continued to lead through a half-mile in :42 flat. Later in the race, Anthony's Cross passed the eighth pole in 1:32.02, faster than Dr. Fager's world record for a dirt mile, and finished the race in 1:44 and change, a full second faster than Secretariat's world record for nine furlongs on dirt.

I was stunned. . . that is, until I realized that the tote board was showing much more reasonable fractions. I quickly realized that the simulcast fractions were simply errors. For a moment though, I thought that I was watching the second comings of Dr. Fager and Secretariat running in the same race!

-Keelerman

re: February 7, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Trebloc — Sun, 13 Feb 2011 00:47:53 GMT

Nice win for Team Brethren. Yippee!!!! The Derbu shuffle is on.

re: February 7, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

TJLuvsTizs — Sun, 13 Feb 2011 00:43:57 GMT

Wow,

What a difference an afternoon makes! Tapizar and CTTT were very disappointing! Tapizar looked anything but professional today and the effort he exerted fighting the jockey on the run into the first turn and the backstretch left him nothing for the final kick.

Brethren on the other hand sure did not disappoint! He was very professional, ultra smooth, and although the time doesn't look on the surface like anything to brag about, he did exactly what good horses do, WIN! Strength of schedule in this race meant nothing to me as he looked every bit as good as his older brother!

Uncle Mo, your stable buddy is closing the gap!