February 14, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

re: February 14, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

new york connection — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 12:34:16 GMT

my top ten .......... not in any order but these are the top ten. So PAY ATTENTION TO SURFACE, CLOSING,TIME,POWER RANK, WHO CARES ABOUT MONEY, trust me. PICK YOUR WINNER FROM MY LIST IS 100 PERCENT.

3 OF TEN HERE WILL BE THE TRIFECTA.

comma to the top

dialed in

nehro

uncle mo

midnight interlude

shacklford

animal kingdom

decisive moment

astrology

archarcdharch

re: February 14, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Forbidden Apple — Mon, 21 Feb 2011 18:44:33 GMT

Coldfacts,

Although Sway Away ran second again, his late kick was unbelievable. His head was way up in the air and he took off like a rocket down the stretch. He clearly needs more distance and is by far my top pick for the Santa Anita Derby. In the Best Pal he galloped out past JP's Gusto and in the San Vicente he galloped out past The Factor. I thank you again for pointing this horse out before the San Vicente, excellent work on your part.

re: February 14, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Exactabox — Mon, 21 Feb 2011 14:55:58 GMT

Waiting patiently for the next Derby Dozen...I know who firmly planted themselves on my list yesterday...were you 'Swayed' Mr.Haskin??

re: February 14, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Fran Loszynski — Mon, 21 Feb 2011 12:30:05 GMT

GO ELITE ALEX

BRING THE TRIPLE CROWN HOME YOU AND CALVIN FOR GOOD OLE' DAD!

Scene at Gainesway Farm:

Afleet Alex gazing at the stable T.V. brought in and smiling "That's my son!"

re: February 14, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

JJ Lucky Train — Mon, 21 Feb 2011 03:01:53 GMT

1) Uncle Mo

2) The Factor

3) Dialed In

4) Brethren

5) Silver Medallion

6) SWAY AWAY....Outstanding Effort

7) Soldat

re: February 14, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Slew — Sun, 20 Feb 2011 14:36:02 GMT

Well...what do I do today...take down the Christmas/Valentine tree? Shovel snow? Or watch horse racing? Scratch the first 2, I'll stay with the 3rd.

Two days ago, the weather warmed up, I finally saw my grass for the first time in 3 months. Today, the gusty wind blew in temps in the teens, snow, ice, and will dump 12 inches on us tomorrow. It's definitely time to make more chili!...and watch the races.

I was most impressed by Bind yesterday, and I can't wait to see more. Machen seemed to tire. Beautiful running from MMM, Santiva, and RR. And Kathmanblu was awesome, while Amen Hallelujah just can't seem to get back in gear. The San Luis Obispo was a heart-stopping run. Loved the race but a shade disappointed Bourbon Bay didn't quite get his nose to the wire first. The Champ however, did well.

My prayers go out to Eibar Coa and his family.

re: February 14, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Zookeeper — Sat, 19 Feb 2011 17:34:33 GMT

Dr D,

Amen to all of that, especially Coa!

re: February 14, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Dr Drunkinbum — Sat, 19 Feb 2011 05:00:19 GMT

Zookeeper

Thank you. Now I'm like you and Jean. I walk it and collect rocks. Almost any kind of meandering at the beach or track is good. We're lucky we can walk. I hope Coa will be able to do the same.

re: February 14, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Dr Drunkinbum — Sat, 19 Feb 2011 01:25:06 GMT

Jean In Chicago, Fran

Thanks. Best wishes to Eibar Coa. I sure hope he regains feeling. Another reminder of how dangerous the sport is, and we should never forget that, and appreciate the tremendous courage of rider and horse every race.

Deacon

I'm not disagreeing, just trying to look at things in a positive manner when possible for my own peace of mind to balance my love of animals with my love of the sport. I'd rather see Smarty stay home but I also think that for the survival of the sport owners are facing tough economic decisions. I don't like it either.

re: February 14, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Alex'sBigFan — Fri, 18 Feb 2011 23:13:14 GMT

I can't get the image out of my mind of Smarty wearing a big straw hat, smoking a cigar, and being poolside somewhere in Uruguay!

"Don Smarty Y Las Senoritas!" Gives Steve a whole new chapter to write about. But if I had it my way, Smarty's feet would be firmly standing on the good old Pennsylvania soil.

re: February 14, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Alex'sBigFan — Fri, 18 Feb 2011 23:04:18 GMT

Dr. D.,

Wow, I knew you were a runner! I know all too well all the effort involved, my husband was a New York elite runner. He won ROY in New York and New Jersey in 2000 or 2001, I forget the year. He was basically a 5K & 10K specialist, but won the Hartford Marathon in 1999 and was the 20th over the finish line out of 30,000+ in NYC in 2001. You sound like you were a great runner too and I understand your pain of missing it, him too with trying to run a business now and minor injuries it is tough to continue and he is basically out of it for right now but trains lightly. He has been running since age 10 in Morocco. He was a niche under the greats, the record breakers. The Kenyans are unbeatable today, more than likely due to the high altitude training conditions in their country. Which brings me to a question maybe only you could figure out, would high altitute training benefit horse runners? But your story was great and thanks for sharing it, no wonder you have a wealth of knowledge about horse and human running.

Coldfacts,

Wow you are surely the "Factster." I can't keep up with all these facts! Interesting point about lightly raced mares producing more champions, doesn't bode well for Zenyatta, all the more reason to make her an ambassador. Let's see what Sway Away does. And keep the facts coming. I really like the auction/purchase price analogy post, what was Elite Alex's purchase price?

Fran, Slew, etc.,

I like the UK loading method that Slew mentioned. And like Dr. D. said "with a reasonable amount of coaxing." Also the "who gets to scratch" needs work too. A lot rests on the jock's shoulders as he is the only one involved from the time they leave the paddock saddling area to the post parade to the gate. He bears a heavy burden of responsiblity by himself in that all of 10 minute time frame? Even if one is out of character at the last minute they should err on the side of caution

and scratch, not to mention out of character from the walkover from the barns to the saddling area. It's far beyond me to address but after Life At Ten and Tapizar the industry has to re-think these two policies.

re: February 14, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Jean in Chicago — Fri, 18 Feb 2011 21:08:00 GMT

Zookeeper:

I'm another non-runner, but I've got ambling and wandering aimlessly down pat. This allows me the time to find interesting pieces of wood and pretty rocks to fill up my pockets.

Dear Dr.D: "But all I really want is for all the horses and jockeys to be safe." Well said. I knew there was a reason I liked you so much.

re: February 14, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Zookeeper — Fri, 18 Feb 2011 19:31:53 GMT

Dr D.,

Good writing about running!!! Who knew the Bumster was such an athlete? :)

The beach, the sand, the birds... it all sounds great to me, but I'd just be walking. Never could run (sigh).

re: February 14, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Jean in Chicago — Fri, 18 Feb 2011 18:55:21 GMT

ABF & Slew:

Invasor was Argentinian, but he raced in Uruguay (won their triple crown) before he came up here. I've thought he and Zenyatta might make a nice couple.

re: February 14, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Slew — Fri, 18 Feb 2011 17:32:07 GMT

I prefer the UK method where if a horse does not wish to load, they stop trying and give him a break. They'll try only once more; if he balks again, he's scratched. In fact, it just happened in the 4th race at Meydan.

re: February 14, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Fran Loszynski — Fri, 18 Feb 2011 13:11:15 GMT

Dr. D.

You couldn't be more on the button about loading the racehorse in the gate. If the horse has a problem maybe he isn't feeling well, is scared for some reason or gee God forbid like we humans has a headache! We fans should all get together and somehow stop the un-necessary force of loading a racehorse. I know its big money involved but to this day I feel if Barbaro who tensed up after a fault start if his leg was cramped from that and led to it being broken. I feel he should have been scratched. Thank God he had Edgar Prado aboard but to no avail we lost a great racehorse. A racehorse should "want to race". Sure they might be a little testy that day but if they don't calm down then "its back to the barn". I can assure you if the person is a real fan of horseracing he would rather the horse be treated well then win on his ticket.

re: February 14, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Slew — Fri, 18 Feb 2011 13:01:41 GMT

ABF: Invasor was from Argentina.

I forgot to add to the Unbridled line Birdstone siring Ky Derby winner Mine That Bird, and Belmont winner Summer Bird. Seems like a very consistent line to me. So Beamer certainly has the class, he just needs the maturity....and the muscle (he's still a very lean colt who is being brought along slowly and carefully.)

re: February 14, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Dr Drunkinbum — Fri, 18 Feb 2011 08:01:34 GMT

Training at HP and running at SA may become more of the norm. That track is too fast and too hard. Reminds me of when I used to get shin splints from running too much on asphalt. If it takes too much of a toll on the runners there, maybe it is wise to toss them as Deacon and Powell say but I'm not that wise. I'll still play them if I like them and they make it to the Derby. And I am expecting a Wow performance from The Factor on Sunday. With Sway Away coming in second. But all I ever really want is for all of the horses and jockeys to be safe. It's a bird, no it's a plane, no it's The Factor, more powerful than a locomotive, faster than a speeding bullet and who came to earth with powers and abilities far exceeding those of normal horses who can set track records in the blink of an eye. I wish his jockey was named Lois or Jimmy.

re: February 14, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Dr Drunkinbum — Fri, 18 Feb 2011 07:47:47 GMT

Deacon

Dick Powell is backing you up and tossing all SA runners.

Slew

Christmas is just around the corner. Leave it up.

Alex'sBigFan

I was training for one when I was hurt for good. No more running but I can walk and hike and swim. Even biking is out now which is something else I did a lot of. I did a smaller Triathlon, a ten mile race, and some Bay to Breakers. Pretty good for a sprinter in high school. 100, 220, 440. I would have gotten that Marathon without the injury. I was running over 12 miles a day. I loved running, and really miss it. My favorite was in the sand, dunes and splashing through the surf, especially isolated beaches with no other humans. Just me and the birds. A marathon is a great accomplishment. Beyond natural human capacity. Breaking through ridiculous pain and suffering and the 20 mile barrier. Almost unheard of centuries ago. Only modern man has that much desire to punish himself unmercifully in that capacity for an achievement with no monetary reward. Just deep satisfaction of the survival and crossing that line. Kind of like horses in The Kentucky Derby or especially The Belmont Stakes. To say, " I did it and I survived." I know that many people say after the first one that there is no way they will do it again, and then they do it again. How else can you accomplish something so extraordinary?

re: February 14, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Coldfacts — Fri, 18 Feb 2011 06:01:01 GMT

Steve,

I am selecting a colt from your second dozen to win the San Vicente Stakes. I know very little about him but I am willing to take the gamble and face the consequences. I recently posted a list of colts on radar whose dams were sired by derby winners. In this list was the popular Afleet Alex colt Elite Alex. However, he was not the only Afleet Alex colt in the list. There was also Sway Away the runner up in the 2010 Best Pal Stakes contested in August. He was sidelined after the Best Pal and has been off for six months.

I revisited his Best Pal performance and it was visible from his action that he had issues. His physical issue was not the only thing that was visible. What was very obvious was his immense ability. He was angled five wide and on the wrong lead in the stretch, closed rapidly on the speedy J P Gusto to be only beaten by 1/2L in a fast time of 1:16.61 for 6.5F. No colt by Afleet Alex out of a Seattle Slew mare should be expected to be competitive at 6 ½ F with a five wide trip and not changing leads. Only the very good ones deliver top class performances under adverse conditions.

Hi sire won 2 legs of the TC and dam sire won the whole thing. Only one Seattle Slew broodmare has produced a winner of a Triple Crown race and that was Charming Lassie the dam of Belmont winner Lemon Drop Kid. Charming Lassie race once and consequently there was no opportunity to assess how good a horse she would have as her dam was by Buckpasser. The dam of Sway Away (Seattle Shimmer) made one less start as she was unraced. Her dam was sired by Preakness winners Summer Squall who just happens to be the dam sire of recent Belmont winner Summer Bird. Seattle Shimmer like Charming Lasssie is an unknown quantity and that make Sway Away a dangerous colt. I am firmly of the opinion that unraced and lightly raced mares are the best producer of champion horses. The dams of Invasor, Candy Ride, Curlin (unraced); Secretariat (one unplaced start)

My only concern is his level of fitness with such an extended lay off. However, I hardly believe the trainer of this talented colt would risk starting him against the likes The Factor if not fully fit. I hope I have FACTORED in everything in my evaluation.

re: February 14, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Alex'sBigFan — Fri, 18 Feb 2011 05:24:36 GMT

Dr. D.,

Oh my goodness! Smarty and the Senoritas!!!!! Hee, hee, hee. I forget if Invasor was from Uruguay or Argentina, Steve you're the expert on Invasor, where's he from?

Yep, Smarty's going on vacation alright, will be sipping Margueritas in no time flat!

re: February 14, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Matthew W — Fri, 18 Feb 2011 03:49:54 GMT

Tapizar is a stone cold front runner--if he goes, that's bad for Uncle Mo, who will be chasing a hot pace--better for MoMo to relax/stalk/pounce--Tapizar is this year's X-Factor, I believe him to be the second best horse of this crop, and a close second at that--they only need to realize he needs to go--and don't fight him....

re: February 14, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Arlene — Fri, 18 Feb 2011 02:03:35 GMT

Someone earlier dispirited my choice of Beamer and maybe attributed it to Dr Drunkinbum in error. Thank you Steve for not discrediting this choice. But, at this stage, so many champion horses who have not even raced in 2011. All I know, and I have been watching since the 60's, that when "around the turn they come" happens on the first Saturday in May..we will all be there. Even the future wagering, the field at 5-2?

Maybe I will take my chances on game day (also I do not have a wagering venue) I hope all contenders stay healthy,and the best colt/filly will win on the day..with luck, connections, conditioning, but for the best colt/filly it will be in their court. I think of Funny Cide, Smarty Jones and (ok soft spot here) Afleet Alex (should have been a Triple Crown winner maybe also Point Given?) Anyway..analyze..the gut feeling..and racing luck. Isn't this a grand game. It is hard for me to support "cheaters-Dutrow"..on my gosh I said that. Only the players know the inside...I wish I could hot walk the contenders..watch their feed and attitude..look at their ankles. But the horses' determination..on the right day and being up to the job..good luck to all the connections and the supporters. And, to our picks.

re: February 14, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Slew — Fri, 18 Feb 2011 00:44:20 GMT

ColdFACTS: I pointed out the jargon because you are the one who claims to present facts. I have not been in defiance of AP Indy. Quite the opposite. I very much like him and the Royal lineage he carries. Bernardini was one of my favorites, and his first crop is doing exceptionally well. He leads the nominations in fact. However, those are only the initial nominations, and I'm certain more will be added at a later date. In regard to Kindersley, I'm also looking at the the Kentucky Oaks because we have so many really good fillies this year, and any one of the top just may slide over into the Derby.

Beamer's biggest problem is his youth being a late May foal. I expect to see a lot of good runs come from him possibly later in the year, but he's been progressing with each race. His sire, vindication was 2 year old champion but also the son of Seattle Slew. His dam sire, Unbridled, won the Derby and sired Derby winner Grindstone who sired Belmont and Travers winner Birdstone. Not too shabby for a bloodline.

Dr D: Well I made a big pot of chili too. The home made bread will go well with it. But I've been very busy trying to decide just when to take down the Christmas tree, now that warm weather has finally arrived.

re: February 14, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Alex'sBigFan — Thu, 17 Feb 2011 23:34:19 GMT

I was on the right track, someone told me there is a back to back show also on HLN, called "Issues" with Jane Velez Mitchell also out of NYC. She is great and actually is an animal rights activist and has animal stories about mistreated animals on her show as well as missing and exploited women and children. She's a former reporter and has a great show. So at least there are people out there sticking up for animal rights for those that cannot speak for themselves. TVG take note!