Derby Dozen - February 22, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

re: Derby Dozen - February 22, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Forbidden Apple — Tue, 01 Mar 2011 00:50:31 GMT

My prediction of Uncle Mo not making it in the gate on May 7 has nothing to do with my dislike of Pletcher or Uncle Mo. So far I have not seen him race and I see plenty of other talented colts to get excited about. It is just a prediction, I would love it if he did make it in the gate because he will be extremely overbet.

re: Derby Dozen - February 22, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Fran Loszynski — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 17:04:46 GMT

Just had a thought AFleet Alex fans wouldn't it be something if Elite Alex and Sway Away came in first and second in the Kentucky Derby! It can happen. It's a horserace and they are both awesome. Remember Seattle Slew is in Sway Away's lineage not to mention the stamina of Elite Alex and their Dad Afleet Alex! It's happened before in the Pegasus, Afleet Express and Afleet Again.

Elite Alex to Sway Away:

Hey Bro, try and "sway away" from the rest of crowd in the Ole Kentucky . Dad would love to have a K Derby! Remember how he sent us letters about wanting the Churchill! Not to mention that little Alex hovering over us from the clouds.

Yes wouldn't it be something!

re: Derby Dozen - February 22, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

zarvona — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 15:16:05 GMT

Like most of the PREP Weeks, and weekends of Feb., Mar., & early Apr., in this closing week of only Feb.,--really just the start to the major Prep Season,--we saw another interesting weekend of results to observe and take note of and notes on. Thusly, and first of all, MAJOR congratulations go out to the connections of:

“Soldat”; “Flashpoint”; & “Mr. Commons”, all notable and noted performances, moving each a few rungs higher up my current top 20 list…

Also, still alive from my watch list were the winners “Arch Traveler”; (Jerkens) ; “Red Sharp Humor”; (Hollendorfer) “J.J. Lucky Train”; (Anderson) [[distance issues here?]]; “Left” ; (A.M. Stall, Jr.) ; [[will this Winstar hopeful also take some similar, ‘Non Derby try’ road like “Bind”?]]; “San Paulo” (Pletcher), and “Achaemenes” (Pletcher);… And. minor kudos go out to “Bandbox”; “Midnight Interlude”, (Baffert) ; “Sour” (Stall) ; and even to “Little Drama” (Fawkes) …[[a most heart felt for favorite]]…

And, the question has arisen, ‘Is “Gourmet Dinner” priming to be this year’s ”Giacomo”??’… His wins and runs look slow time wise, his breeding does not suggest ¼ , yet he seems to finish in the money wherever he runs. And, he appears to be not only off the extreme hard 2 Yr. old training route, but is now in the early 3 Yr. old campaign seemingly running more often than most of the others. He for weeks has ranked way down my list, but I can’t justifiably shaking him off still completely just yet.

In the world of the fillies, the revival of “R Heat Lightining” made a good field look bad, being actually quite similar to that of “Flashpoint’s” performance…. “Remind your of anyone??”

Weekend letdowns however did include: “To Honor and Serve” (Mott)--[[just his layoff? and will that now be the question needed to be answered here?,--stay tune BAT fans, we shall see--…]];--although he does still remain high in my top 20 list and among my top 5. Moving a bit down my watch list though go “Travelin’ Man” ; (Pletcher); “Madman Diaries”; (Ward) ; “Leave of Absence” ; “Shackleford”; and “Casper’s Touch”.

Further thinning down my ‘sack of potatoes’ and my current deeper near 150 horse watch list, however, were notably the not so good to poor performances of: “La Mans” ; (Asmussen); “Lumberyard Jack” ; “Indian Knight” ; (Baffert); “Tapaway” ; (Asmussen); “Nacho Business” ; “Cool Blue Red Hot” ; “Manicero” ; “Voodat” ; and “King Alpha” ; (Zito).

Added to my original late Jan. list: “Anthony’s Cross”; “Silver Medallion”; “Jakesam”; “Quail Hill”;

and from off the Turf (T) “King Congie” ; (T) “Master Dunker” ; and (T) “Ari C” ;

awaiting potential 2 turns efforts on: “Sway Away”; “The Factor”: “Albergatti”; “Ft, Hughes”; “Da Ruler”;

“Dialed-In”; “Bench Points”; “Runflatout”; & now “Mr.Commons”; & “Flashpoint”;

awaiting still on the much anticipated returns of: (“Pluck”); --(who it will be remembered beat “Soldat” in the Juv.

BC Turf !!!!; and was 1st on my earliest list of all others since Nov.)-- … sadly being missed, and those of the

likes of: (“J.P.’s Gusto”) ; (“Tiz Blessed”); (“Awesome Patriot”) ; (“Stay Thirsty”);

(“Uncle Sam”) : (“Astrology”) ; (“Blue Laser”) ; (“Jaycito”) ; & (“Crossbow”) ;

… And , now that’s its Monday, I am wondering who was the other most impressive from this past weekend:

(“Beer Meister”); (“Left”) ; (“Gourmet Dinner”); (“Arch Traveler”); OR (“Red Sharp Humor”); ??? and I guess

I am still wondering if “Travelin Man” will return and show us he was not just a one time flash ???….

Losing ground from my earliest list: (T) “Comma to the Top”; while now still also heavily questioning the likes of

“Santiva”; “Mucho Machi Man” ; and “Gourmet Dinner”… and wondering ‘do they really have any hope of

getting a 1 ¼ ?’? Awe soon to be the “Ides of March” and then only exactly two months away.

re: Derby Dozen - February 22, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Ranagulzion — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 14:40:45 GMT

Forbidden Apple,

You really should wish that all worthy Derby candidates show up at Churchill Downs on May 7, 2011. I say that it is bad sportsmanship and mean-spirited to forcast a no-show for one of the most exciting thoroughbreds leading up to the big day in racing. Why? Just because you don't like Todd Pletcher? I thought you liked the sport and the horses more than you hate the trainer. Shame on you.

I also hope that Mike Relva reads this. He should scold you on this point, as one of the 'police' on these blogs.

re: Derby Dozen - February 22, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

GunBow — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 06:16:52 GMT

The FoY was a solid race, but I don't think it should have Team Mo overly concerned.

Soldat and Gourmet Dinner are real nice horses, both consistent, durable and veratile. Soldat has that excellent tactical speed to be in every race, and I absolutely think he will be tough to handle in the Florida Derby. However, the fractions and final time of the FoY weren't special, and the Beyer of 96 reflects a solid, but not brilliant performance. If for some reason the Triple Crown gig doesn't work out, Soldat can always return to turf.

All Gourmet Dinner does is run the same race over and over, in the Midwest, East, or out West, on dirt or synthetic. As such, he's a great barometer to use when comparing other horses; he was beaten a couple of lengths by Soldat in the FoY, a couple of lengths by Dialed In in the Holy Bull, and a couple of lengths by Comma to the Top in the Cash Call Futurity. 10 furlongs might be stretching it for Gourmet Dinner, but I now actually give him a decent shot to be right there in the exotics for the Derby. And there is no doubt he will be a legit contender in the final round of preps, with the Santa Anita Derby the early choice of his connections. The connections are correct that at this point the Cali division is behind the Florida contingent, but if someone runs a breakout race in the San Felipe, and given the talent(potential) pointing for that race it's entirely possible, then Gourmet Dinner could end up in the Florida Derby afterall. As a fan living in SoCal, I would love to see Gourmet Dinner again, and the fact is, the division is thin out here.

The big disappointment of the FoY was To Honor and Serve. It's easy to say in retrospect that THAS needed the race, but all the pre-race indicators were that he was set to run a bang-up race first back; just look above at Steve's comments. The reality is, when THAS was asked the question at the top of the stretch, he was no match for the battle hardened Soldat and Gourmet Dinner. Is it possible THAS is another in the long line of horses that dazzled in the Remsen and then flopped on the Derby trail?

As for the also-rans, toss everyone except Bowman's Causeway from your Derby list. Bowman's Causeway had to steady a bit on the far turn or otherwise might have touched out THAS for the show.

Speaking of trainers making a sudden change of plans, how about Jerry Hollendorfer and Indian Winter? Indian Winter was all set to run in the San Vicente last weekend, but Hollendorfer scratched him late in the afternoon when he believed the track was too speed biased to realistically beat The Factor (Sway Away, however, did make a nice late run). Instead, Hollendorfer re-routed Indian Winter to this past Saturday's $50,000 Turf Paradise Derby, where he was only 3rd under the wire(placed 2nd by dq). I'm a big fan of Hollendorfer, but that move smelled of poultry, and it didn't surprise me at all that it backfired. We are too late in the game to play hot potato; if you're afraid of the San Vicente, that tells me your horse has no chance in the Derby.

re: Derby Dozen - February 22, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Karen in Texas — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 05:42:37 GMT

Forbidden Apple---Dialed In worked 2/25 (Fri.) at Palm Meadows 5f. in 59.95. It was 1st of 13 works at the distance.

re: Derby Dozen - February 22, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

RGW — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 02:29:29 GMT

Forbidden....Uncle Mo worked.....thats all that really matters...

re: Derby Dozen - February 22, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Footlick — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 02:26:11 GMT

Forbidden Apple- 5 furlongs in 59.75

re: Derby Dozen - February 22, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Ranagulzion — Sun, 27 Feb 2011 20:33:50 GMT

Here's my Dozen after the FOY and Hutcheson:

1)Uncle Mo

2)Dialed In

3)Soldat

4)Mucho Macho Man

5)Sweet Ducky

6)Santiva

7)Brethren

8)Gourmet Dinner

9)Jaycito

10)Flashpoint

11)Anthony's Cross

12)Premier Pegasus

Others on my radar: Supreme Leader, Toby's Corner, Sway Away, Rogue Romance, Comma To The Top and Riveting Reason.

re: Derby Dozen - February 22, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Forbidden Apple — Sun, 27 Feb 2011 18:41:05 GMT

Does anyone know if Dialed In recorded a workout this weekend?

re: Derby Dozen - February 22, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Footlick — Sun, 27 Feb 2011 16:36:36 GMT

sceptre- I agree 100%.

re: Derby Dozen - February 22, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Forbidden Apple — Sun, 27 Feb 2011 14:36:15 GMT

rgw,

Blah blah blah, in 2011 Uncle Mo is a no show. Wake me up when he wins a graded stakes at 1 1/8 or beyond. The Timely Useless will tell us exactly nothing about his ability to run a distance of ground.

re: Derby Dozen - February 22, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

datflippinrabbit — Sun, 27 Feb 2011 13:58:36 GMT

Flashpoint looked best of all in a good time of 1.22,but i cant see him getting 1 1/4 miles on that breeding.THAS flooped obviously needed the race,Soldat finished in a rather pedistrian 1.50 and change.So all we need now is for Mo to flop coming of a baby preperation and we have a wide open crop of 3yr olds,i have'nt seen anything yet that could make me jump out of my chair.

re: Derby Dozen - February 22, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Slew — Sun, 27 Feb 2011 12:36:40 GMT

Sceptre...5 x HOY, Kelso. TC winner Citation. Dr. Fager. Forego. How many years did John Henry run? How many horses do you remember from the past 15 years? How many from the past 50? I actually think that 3 TC winners in one decade says a lot. It happened in the '40's and the 70's. It hasn't happened since. It's much more than anecdotal. It's a historical affirmation of earlier training methods. If you want a real race horse, you run him. If you just want to make an appearance in the Kentucky Derby, your wrap your colt in bubble wrap and keep him on the shelf until you find a race without real competition, even if it has to be specially written to accommodate a lackluster campaign.

re: Derby Dozen - February 22, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Ranagulzion — Sun, 27 Feb 2011 04:52:42 GMT

Now the Derby trail is heating up, the rubber hits the road and the cream is rising. Some over-rated colts are being cut down to size and some hard knocking but genuine ones are staking their claim to a Derby dozen spot. Next weeks Haskins dozen will make very interesting reading. Many questions are expected to be answered by Steve.

How far down has the 'mighty' son of Bernardini fallen and should he have been positioned so high up in the first place? To what heights has FOY conqueror Soldat risen? Has Gourmet Dinner earned enough respect yet or a firm spot amongst the twelve? Is Stay Thirsty's place in the Derby Dozen really credible? And who will be droped to make room for the flashy and burly son of Pomeroy that made his point in the Hutcheson?

My assessment of the tremendous strength of the Holy Bull Stakes graduates continue to be upheld, last week by Mucho Macho Mann and this week by Gourmet Dinner. Does Steve now have any valid arguments against making room for Holy Bull Stakes runner-up Sweet Ducky in the Derby Dozen? I look forward to reading his rationale for continuing to deny the "Swale-like" great grand son of Seattle Slew a spot amongst the Derby-trail elite. Stay tuned folks.

re: Derby Dozen - February 22, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

rgw — Sun, 27 Feb 2011 03:15:59 GMT

Steve you and I seem to be 2 of only a handful that were actually watching uncle mo DEMOLISH everything he faced.This is THE HORSE that will fix everything thats wrong with racing with his domination of this years triple crown.We deserve this horse as fans,it has been woefully long since our last triple crown champ.After his next start he will begin to be elevated on everybodys list.Unless he sucumbs to injury a la Eskenderaya, nothing will stop him from being mentioned in the same breath as the immortal Secretariat

re: Derby Dozen - February 22, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

mike p — Sat, 26 Feb 2011 22:42:45 GMT

Alex Solis should be suspended for his ride on Casper's Touch. He broke on top and he fought the horse until the horse stopped running altogether. That's not to say Casper's touch could have won the race, but we will never know what his best race was as he was robbed of any chance by this so called jockey. What a travesty!

re: Derby Dozen - February 22, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Jean in Chicago — Sat, 26 Feb 2011 22:11:07 GMT

m2m: You mean Thorn Song? Yes, wonderful news. Especially since he was treated with stem cells and it seems to have worked. It would be great if this opens a new door in the fight against laminitis. It's such a horrible condition and has taken so many great horses from us way before their time.

re: Derby Dozen - February 22, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Coldfacts — Sat, 26 Feb 2011 17:19:24 GMT

Steve,

Mucho Macho Man: “He runs hard and you had to love his fast closing fractions”

Anthony’s Cross: “Still not convinced the Robert Lewis was a top prep and didn’t like the slow closing fractions”

I have to call you out on your Derby Dozen comments on the above colts. In one instance you decry the slow closing fractions of the Bob Lewis and in the other you express pleasure at the closing fractions of the Risen Star. Below are the splits for both races.

Robert Lewis: 22.48, 45.64, 1:09.92, 1:35.07, 1:48.63

Risen Star : 24.67, 49.24, 1:13.65, 1:37.77, 1:43.98

It is obvious the first three quarters one race was contested at a much faster than the other. Consequently, the faster fractions would invariably result in slower closing fractions. Even if the Bob Lewis fractions are adjusted by 2 seconds for the second two quarters they are still two seconds faster than those of the RS. The Bob Lewis was contested at 9Ffor the first time in 2011. We therefore can only compare those that had been run at the previous distance of 8.5F. The last Bob Lewis run on dirt was won by Great Hunter in 1:42.89. The fractions were one to two seconds slower than the 2011 renewal. The half mile for the 2011 Risen Star was the slowest in the last five years and the 6F was the second slowest. The only reason MMM came home so fast was because they crawled in the first six.

Do you seriously believe Riveting Reason who led the BCJ filed for the first 6F in 1:11 plus and runner up in the BL is an inferior colt to MMM? If RR was in the Risen Star with those pedestrian fractions he would beat the rest by at least 5L

FL derby winner Big Brown covered the last 3F of race in 38.08; Derby runner up Ice Box covered the last 3F of FL derby in 38.43. The last 3F of the Bob Lewis was 38.71. This time was recorded after the fastest 6F (1:09.92) run in a 9F derby prep in the last 5YRS. To put MMM above Anthony Cross with his pedigree and speed cannot be justified. I know you regard Riveting Reason as chopped liver as you have not mentioned him neither your first nor second Dozen. How many of the colt in either of your dozens have contested a G1 at 8.5F chasing a very fast colt and returns 11 days to be beaten by 1/2L in an 8F race run in 1:35? That takes stamina and heart and sets him apart from many a fact that should be known by most.

NB: Forty Niner won the Hutchinson and the Fountain Of Youth 12 days apart. He was the eventual derby runner up. The good ones show special qualities.

re: Derby Dozen - February 22, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Karen in Texas — Sat, 26 Feb 2011 17:05:11 GMT

m2m---Yes, I think you're referring to Thorn Song (not Torch) who was treated with stem-cell therapy. I hope he does well at stud, too.

re: Derby Dozen - February 22, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

sceptre — Sat, 26 Feb 2011 15:20:44 GMT

Slew-

That anecdotal piece of information ("Three Triple Crown winner in one decade") proves nothing, just as the fact that there were no Triple Crown winners from 1949 through 1972 also proves nothing...Try again.

re: Derby Dozen - February 22, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Coldfacts — Sat, 26 Feb 2011 08:21:36 GMT

Racing Aptitude made his first two starts on dirt. He was then switched to turf for his next five starts. His last two starts were very interesting. He returned from a 48 days break to make his seasonal debut in the ungraded Tropical Park De run at 9F. He finished 5th beaten 4 1/2L by King Congie. The time of the race was1:49 2/5. Fifteen day later returned to run in the Dania beach where he finished 7th beaten 4 3/4L by Adirondack Summer. The time of the race was 1:34 2/5. In the Dania Beach he was impeded twice going into the first turn and had a bazaar stretch run almost falling then switched and still managed to finished 4 1/2L behind the winner. This colt has 7 career starts with two in 2011 being at 9F and 8F. He would have been serious challenger for the Dania Beach if not for his misfortunes. He now switched back to dirt for the Gll FOY after a strong 8F race runs in 1:34 2/5. From observation the turf is not likely be his best surface in spite of his favorable results on same.

From a pedigree angle Racing Aptitude is interesting. His sire Aptitude is one of the many sons of A P Indy and remains the only one that has placed in the Kentucky Derby. He also place in the Belmont and is probably the only serving stallion that was produced from a Northern Dancer mare. It is ironic that Aptitude the best bred son of A P Indy and the most successful in Triple Crown races is literally forgotten and not one expected to sire a derby contender. Could this well bred son of A P Indy emerge from obscurity with a classic contender like Our Emblem the well bred but obscured son of Mr. Prospector did with War Emblem? His dam made only one start and was sire by Saint Ballado sire of Breeder Cup winner & HOY Saint Liam & two times champion Ashado. Saint Ballado’s sire Halo sired two derby winners. His second dam was sired by Riverman consequently stamina should not be an issue. Does he have the class to compliment his pedigree? I think he does as his late race depicted he is a colt with a lot of upside. He has a foundation and two 2011 starts advantage over most. His trainer has a 26% turf to dirt record. Could the senior son of A P Indy upset the junior? It’s racing and anything is possible. I think he is merits and inclusion in the exotics.

re: Derby Dozen - February 22, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

Dr Drunkinbum — Sat, 26 Feb 2011 02:46:30 GMT

Next week will be the time to start getting real with my Derby list with only legitimate speculation. No more speedsters, or only MSW winners. Proven in Stakes only. Let the games begin with the FOY, the first real prep. How can the winner of the FOY not zoom to the top of the list if his performance is impressive, although I could see Dialed In being at the top. FOY- I will be surprised if Bowman's Causeway isn't in the top 4 with a good looking performance. I expect a Soldat and To Honor duel at some point with Soldat pulling away for the win, and Honor fading to 3rd or 4th, with one of the younger closers coming up for the place. Bowman's would be my pick, unless Honor is more ready than anticipated and Soldat and Honor blow away the field, dueling most of the way or to the very end. This is a true prep for Honor with a peaking performance on Derby day the plan, but there is the possibility that he is that much better than these and a win now does not negate continued improvement and a Derby win. It will be an informative race. I like Soldat for the win, and proving to the world that he is not an off track or turf specialist but that dry dirt is his preference. He's going to number one on my list if he wins the FOY.

re: Derby Dozen - February 22, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

John T — Sat, 26 Feb 2011 01:36:30 GMT

Sceptre

It might be true what you are saying about Buckpasser,Sir Gaylord,and Hail To Reason but thank heavens all three went on to be very successful sires.I was at The Curragh in Ireland on July 1 1967 when Sir Ivor,by Sir Gaylord

was making his 2 year old debut and

although he never troubled the leaders you could tell he was a horse to watch.As a 3 year old he went on to win the 2000 Guineas,

Epsom Derby,and the Washington D.C

International.His jockey Lester Piggott would later write he was the best horse he ever sat even putting him ahead of Nijinsky.On

Sunday October 6 1968 I was at Longchamp in Paris to watch Sir Ivor finish second to Vaguely Noble

in the Arc.And once again we are

reminded of what these great racehorses can produce at stud as

Vaguely Noble went on to be the sire of Dahlia,one of the toughest

mares I have ever seen on the racetrack.

re: Derby Dozen - February 22, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill Farm

sceptre — Sat, 26 Feb 2011 01:28:29 GMT

Footlick-

Glad you remember him (Buckpasser) so well. Won't be too long when he'll be known only through books on racing history. But, he was truly spectacular-by far the best I've ever seen (performing and standing still). Both then (the week leading up to the race), and in retrospect, I wish they had scratched him from that Woodward. No doubt egos and sporting gesture trumped what was in the horse's best interests and his legacy-not to mention the risk. As said, the ways of the past are not always to be revered. The great Graustark was yet another example. He wasn't right leading up to the Blue Grass, yet they ran him anyway-yielded him his only loss, and immediate retirement.