Derby Dozen - February 28, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

re: Derby Dozen - February 28, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

zarvona — Fri, 11 Mar 2011 23:49:16 GMT

See any similarities here ??:

“Big Brown”: (Kty.); Apr. 10th foal; $170K ’07 Keenlander ;

8 7 0 0 ; D.I. 1.67 ; Tomlinson Distance rating 000 ; Haskin’s #1 ;

[[triple bred to Northern Dancer & dbl. bred to Native Dancer ; Round Table-Princequillo ; Nasrullah ; & Turn To]];

Uncle Mo: (Kty.); Apr. foal ? ;.$160K ’08 Keenlander; $220K ’09 Keenlander;

3 3 0 0 ; D.I. 2.20 ; Tomlinson Distance rating 000 ; Haskin’s #1 ;

[[triple bred to Northern Dancer & dbl. bred to Raise a Native–Native Dancer & Turn To ; & w/Princequillo on the ‘dam side’]];

re: Derby Dozen - February 28, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

El Kabong — Mon, 07 Mar 2011 19:50:22 GMT

Coldfacts

If pure statistical analysis were all it took to figure this game out you would certainly be in Steve's chair, but it takes more than that, alot more. You say Soldat is too slow because you focus on his times with blinkers on. You compare them to other stats as if these races were run in a vacuum of equal measure. Well, bad news bud, they're not. So you have to use your eyes and common sense to make heads or tails of a performance or maybe just read and listen to some of the excellent analysis offered up by Forbidden Apple, Lazmannick, and Johnny. I much prefer their read of Soldat's performance and I think it is easy to see, using your eyes, that this colt has much more to offer, if challenged. This horse, his Jock and Trainer are racing with professional intelligence for not running your 9F time if they don't need to, to win the race. That's not slow, it's smart. Why is that not apparent to you? Look at the way the horse runs out and comes back. He's capable of much more and you may get to see it in the Florida Derby if he gets challenged. For now, I will go down on the books that your analysis on Soldat is as far off the mark as you analysis of Super Saver was last year.

re: Derby Dozen - February 28, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

zarvona — Mon, 07 Mar 2011 14:52:51 GMT

,,, And so, the old question arises this time of year when new speed is flashed... With only c. 9 weeks of true prep earnings room left and required earnings needed to be accumlated, does the likes of a late bloomer and new comer speedster on the scene, such as a "Wilburn",--the half brother to "Beethoven", and bred to go forever,--really have any shot at developing in time to gain a Derby gate? ...or ...Shall we always be stuck with leftovers from the 2 Yr. campaign whom lack speed and don't really look competive to the cream of the crop, but whom on the other hand have collected the required earnings and whom will be strapped to us as hangers on, holding back those late bloomers whom we all develope hearts for? Again, does the system of filling the gates need to be revamped?

re: Derby Dozen - February 28, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Read'em&weepBoys — Mon, 07 Mar 2011 03:12:54 GMT

(1)Soldat

(2) MuchoMachoMan

(3)Gourmet dinner

(4)Astroglogy

(5)Jacito

(6)Brethren

(7)Uncle Mo (don't wig on me)

(8)Stay Thirsty

(9)Santiva

(10) Rogue Romance

(11)Dialed in

(12)Tobys corner

(12) To honor and serve (not sure why I got a tie breaker here? )

Read 'em and weep boys

re: Derby Dozen - February 28, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

zarvona — Mon, 07 Mar 2011 01:33:31 GMT

How do you break down and manage your own top 50 Derby list?

Out & out Top Condenders and potential predictable winners:

“Uncle Mo” ; “The Factor” ; “Soldat” ; “Dialed In” ; “Sway Away” ; “To Honor and Serve” :

Could cross the finish line first picking up the pieces in bad weather or a burned out front end:

“Anthony’s Cross” ; “Riveting Reason” ; “Silver Medallion” ; “Brethren” ;

Could come flying down the stretch if they can rate:

“Albergatti” ; “Beer Meister” ; “Flashpoint” ; “Mr. Commons” ; “Fr. Hughes” ; “Wilburn”;

Could or probably will stumble into a gate slot and might be the 2011 ‘Giacomo’:

“Gourmet Dinner” ; “Jake Sam” ; “Quail Hill” ;

Could possibly earn a gate spot but the 1 ¼ seems slightly out of play:

“Gourmet Dinner” ; “Mucho Macho Man” ; “Santiva” ; “Comma to the Top” [has gained earnings];

Could possibly still earn a gate slot & would then need to be further considered for analysis:

“Archarcharch” ; “Astrology” ; “Elite Alex” ; “Jaycito” ; “J.P’s Gusto” ;

“Positive Response” ; “Stay Thirsty” ; “Wilkinson” ; “Willcox Inn” ;

Still have much to prove:

“Runflatout” ; “Cal Nation” ; “Arch Traveler” ; “Premier Pegasus” ;

Potential playable extreme Long Shots for the gambling man:

“Left” ; “Red Sharp Humor” ; Laconic” ; “Swagger” ;

Honorable Mention but not likely:

“Alternation” ; “Bowman’s Causeway” ; “Machen” ; “Sweet Ducky” ; “Bench Points” ; “Escort” ;

Real Long Shots:

“Nacho Business” ; “Beamer” ; “Bandbox” ; “Washington’s Rules” ;

Exclusions for reasons other than injury, but still possible::

“Pluck” (T) ; “Master Dunker” (T) ; “King Congie” (T) ; “Ari C” (T) ; “Uncle Sam” (T) ;

“Adrindack Summer” (T) ; “Bind” ; “Buffum” ;

Most likely now off the trail:

“Shackleford” ; “Toby’s Corner” ; “Da Ruler” ; “Tiz Blessed” ;

Potential Newbies: (always leave 10-30 slots open in this category and then evaluate and consider when and if they become players later);

mock list:

Achaemenes: (Kty.); Ashbjornson: (Kty.); Beau De Beaupre: (N.Y.); Break up the Game: (Kty.)

Chinese Praise (g) (Fla.); Data Link: (Kty.): (T) ; Free Entry: (Va.); Fusa Code: (g) (Kty.);

Hammersmith: (Kty.); Little Drama: (Fla..); Lou Brissie: (Kty.); Old Guys Rule: (N.Y.);

Praetereo: (gr) (Kty.); Queen’splatekitten: (Ont.); Rattlesnake Bridge: (gr.) (Kty.); Razmataz: (Kty.);

Redwood Falls: (Kty.); Rush Now: (Kty.); San Pablo: (Kty.); Sensational Slam: (Ont.);

Smash: (Kty.); Sovereign Default: (Fla.); Su Casa G Casa: (La.); Taptowne, (Kty.);

Watch Me Go: (Fla.): World Renowned: (Fla.);

re: Derby Dozen - February 28, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

SnakeEyes — Mon, 07 Mar 2011 00:33:10 GMT

Watch out for the horses that have come back after a long layoff only to run subpar efforts. With that in mind, I am still on the THAS bandwagon and Premeir Pegasus could be a major sleeper in this wild triple crown trail.

re: Derby Dozen - February 28, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

zarvona — Sun, 06 Mar 2011 21:07:59 GMT

WOW HOO ...how about Asmussen's "Wilburn"-- where if

("Sensational Slam") gets a 94 Beyer for 6 fur. in 1:10.61 ???--what rating will "Wilburn" get? with 6 fur. in 1:07.89 ???

Naw, we haven't heard from the entire 'sack of potatoes' just yet.

Wilburn: (Kty.); Tr. S. Asmussen; Mar. 22nd foal; $75K ‘09 FTS Kty. ; $625K ‘09 Keenlander ;

1 1 0 0 ; D.I. 0.00 ; Tomlinson Distance rating 000 ;

winner Msw 6 ½ fur.

: 21.27 ; : 43.73 ; 1:07.89 ; 1: 13.95; SA;

[[dbl. bred to Northern Dancer & dbl. bred to Mr. Prospector ; 5X bred to Nasrullah ; & triple bred to Bold Ruler ;

re: Derby Dozen - February 28, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

zarvona — Sun, 06 Mar 2011 19:33:17 GMT

Someone asked about a Fillies List:

…Well, I figured the SA OAKS Gr. I,--being the 1st real major filly prep since the BC Juv., awaiting the other considerable major preps, being: the ‘Fair Ground Oaks’; the ‘Gulf Stream Oaks’; the ‘Central Bank Ashland Stakes’; & the Fantasy Stake’--would produce ‘the best from the west’, where arch rivals “Turbulent Descent” and “Zazu” squared off once again & up against “A Z Warrior”,--a most well bred talented 2 Yr. old off a long layoff from her 2 Yr. old campaign. The result was “Turbulent Descent” by a neck in a dazzling :23.31 ; :46.67 ; 1:10.67 ; 1:34.69 ; 141.05,--notably the best run time of the weekend for 3 Yr. Olds, male or female &--with “Turbulent Descent”--now 3 out of 4 wins vs. “Zazu”,--and “Zazu”--the gray, 1 of 4 vs. “Turbulent Descent”,--charging heartily to the wire from 5 back only to fall a neck short, with “A Z Warrior” following home + some 5 ¼ back. The shock was that after the race Puype announced that “Turbulent Descent”,--an early Kty. Derby Nominee mind you,--will neither pursue a path to the Kty. Derby or the Kty. Oaks, claiming that 1 1/16 was the fillies’ preferred max distance.

Thusly, if you trust that statement, then you must subtract her from consideration for the Kty. Oaks.

For sometime now prior to the running of the SA OAKS, my own personal ‘early filly dozen’ had included: “Awesome Feather” ; “A Z Warrior” ; “Dancinginherdreams” ; “Delightful Mary” ; “Kathmanblu” ; “More Than Real” ; “Pomeroy’s Pistol” ; “R Heat Lightning” ; “Tell A Kelly” ; “Turbulent Descent” ; “Wyomia” ; and “Zazu”.

In following with my Sportswriters Poll re da boyz, here is a recent Fillies Poll from the sportswriter procrastinators re their selections to date, and this assumedly being from lists generated before the running of the first major prep, the SA OAKS Gr. I.

With 50 the highest rank to be achieved:

#1 “Kathmanblu”: 45 ;

#2 “Turbulent Descent”: 40 ;

#3 “Dancinginherdreams”: 38;

#4 “Zazu”. 37;

#5 “R Heat Lightning”: 29;

#6 “Inglorius”: 15;

#7-#8 tie: “More Than Real”: 10; &

“Biz Tiz”: 10;

#9-10 “Awesome Feather”: 7;

#11-#12 tie: “Pomeroy’s Pistol”: 7;

“Tell A Kelly”: 7; &

“Rigoletta”: 7;

#13 “A Z Warrior” 6;

#14 “Banquet Booth”: 5;

#15-#16 tie: “Delightful Mary”: 3; &

“Winter Memories”: 3;

Of note, “Chloe Kate”; “Joyful Victory”; & “Dixie City”; each received 2 points & “Wyomia” 0, none.

Also, in studying the breeding of all the “Oaks” nominees,--and there are host of well bred fillies waiting in the wings, where--results from here on will be the determining factor to see if others are worthy and get added to THE LIST of hopefuls for the ‘Kentucky Oaks’,--I was most impressed by many.

So there ya go, an early look at the fillies

re: Derby Dozen - February 28, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

JJ Lucky Train — Sun, 06 Mar 2011 18:39:39 GMT

Not even a wink to the west coasters?

The Factor, Positive Response, Sway Away......The three I consider more formidable that Toby, Rogue, Santiv and Astrol.

re: Derby Dozen - February 28, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Bloodline Bob — Sun, 06 Mar 2011 18:30:59 GMT

DIALED IN WILL "NOT" WIN THE 2011 KY.DERBY. Even if he wins this 4th race at Gulfstream today.

re: Derby Dozen - February 28, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Footlick — Sun, 06 Mar 2011 15:17:58 GMT

Ranagulzion- We do seem to agree quite a bit on those horses. We are probably closer to each other's opinions on the current horses too than we appear on the blogs-lol. Don't know if he will get a Derby winner this year, because it is going to be tough, but Bernadini's are coming out in droves this year. Looks like they made a good choice for Zenyatta after all.

re: Derby Dozen - February 28, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Battfist — Sun, 06 Mar 2011 03:45:21 GMT

Soldat!

JP's Gusto

Keep an eye on Special Kid.

re: Derby Dozen - February 28, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

KR — Sun, 06 Mar 2011 00:44:32 GMT

I just read that Sway Away will be sent to Oaklawn for the Rebel Stakes. I was surprised by the news. I fully expected him to stay in California.

re: Derby Dozen - February 28, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Forbidden Apple — Sat, 05 Mar 2011 17:54:12 GMT

Alex's Big Fan,

The two major horses that have not raced yet this year are Jaycito and Uncle Mo. I do not see any other horses jumping in at this point and making their first start this weekend or next weekend and making any dent in the KY Derby trail. Besides the 2 that I mentioned above, most horses have already made a start this year. I remember Big Brown's March 5 allownace win as one of the latest starts for a KY Derby winner in recent history.

re: Derby Dozen - February 28, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Carlos in Cali — Sat, 05 Mar 2011 17:27:42 GMT

Footlick,

He definitely impressed me.I wasn't knocking him,just thought his owners might have kept us from having another TC Champion.

re: Derby Dozen - February 28, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

sockeroo — Sat, 05 Mar 2011 17:26:53 GMT

What an exciting and challenging campaign Pletcher's laid out for Uncle Mo-a walkover mile and The Wood which is typically the weakest prep race. Holy Bellamy Road he deserves to lose the Derby. Pletcher's either super confident or maybe Mo ain't all that.

re: Derby Dozen - February 28, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Coldfacts — Sat, 05 Mar 2011 16:41:09 GMT

Ranagulzion,

I know you are high on Stay Thirsty and I also like him in the Gotham. However, there is a colt that has captured my attention and that’s Norman Asbjornson. He is a son the recently diseased 1998 Derby winner Real Quiet. His connections started him at sprint distances in his first three starts. They quickly recognized that after being beaten a combined 33 ¾ L in those three races he was not a sprinter. His next two starts were at 8F & 8.5F which not surprising he won comfortably. His last was an 8.5F Allowance at Philly Park that he won in 1:43 flat. Now that fast for Philly Park. He has been off for 49 days and but come back an improved colt. He broke his maiden in an 8F race at Penn National in 1:42 3/5. He recently worked a mile in 1:42 handily followed by 5F in 1:00. This obviously is a much improved colt. Consider this. Stay Thirsty was 14 1/2L behind Uncle Mo in the BCJ run in 1:42 3/5. He therefore completed his race in about 1:45 plus. Has Stay Thirsty improved 3 seconds during his respite? Who Knows!

The Gotham has been contested at 8.5F for the last 5YRS. The fastest recorded was achieved by I Want Revenge 1:42.65. The average time for this distance is 1:43 plus. Stay Thirsty contested one race at 8.5F and is projected finishing is 1:45 plus. Norman Asbjornson actual time for 8.5 is 1:43. Neither has raced at The Big A so no one knows how they will handle the surface. That advantage goes to Toby’s Corner. However, what is known is that Norman Asbjornson goes into the Gotham with less status than Stay Thirsty but a better recoded time for the distance. Does Norman Asbjornson have the class of ST? Probably not, but he is a staying son of a Derby winning stallion from the RAN sire line and that makes him dangerous. He must be a good exotic play.

re: Derby Dozen - February 28, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

zarvona — Sat, 05 Mar 2011 15:03:38 GMT

Taking my annual mock Sportswriters Poll,--as I due about this time of year when the Kty. Oaks Nominees are out, more to see if there are fillies out there that I have overlooked vs. actually seeing where ‘da boyz’ stand, because I have my own opinion, which seemingly always disagrees with the so-called ‘experts’ out there, and noting that the writers are not really the horse experts,--as I have been reminded many times while handicapping off a program, “that horses do not run on paper”. But, in taking the lists from the prospective writer analysts, from the AP’s top 10 (whoever are the forces behind that list), and including the 1st Pool results,--although selections there are limited and don’t include some top names that others point to, yet where it is a fair voice as to where the bettors as fans stand, thusly giving them a voice there,--and thusly, with 80 being a perfect to score, I have discovered the following respected order as of the first week of March. Thusly, compare these findings with your own propagated list of 12-20 to 40!

#1 Uncle Mo 78 …(“’Uncle Motor’ the Ghost”, got all of the top slot votes accept from 2 ! )

#2 Dialed In 67 ½ …a bit of a surprise to me after only but 1 good minor prep run

#3 Soldat 61 …whose numbers dramatically increased after last weekends FOY

#4 - #5 tie To Honor and Serve …whose numbers dramatically decreased after last weekends FOY

Brethren 52 …who after but 1 prep has seemingly held on to this spot forever

#6 Jaycito 39 ½ …a bit odd to me remaining so high, due to a lack of a recent run

#7 Mucho Macho Man

33 …no comment, but until he proves more, not my cup of tea

#8 - #9 tie Santiva 15 ½ …surprisingly to me hasn’t gotten bumped lower yet

Stay Thirsty …surprisingly to me, since a lack of a recent run & notably

now running against virtually no one in the Gotham

#10 Rogue Romance 11 …barely nipping a host of others for this coveted spot …

being those such as:

#11 Gourmet Dinner 10 ½ …(Mr. “Giacomo” of 2011)…

#12 The Factor 9 ½ ...(whom even Baffert’s calls “The FREAK”, & have you seen

this animal up close or in pictures? Look at that face, it even

scares me, he is one weird looking dude, and is deservedly a

“factor” to be feared , especially if they can get him to rate over

longer distances…

#13 Sway Away 7 ½ …with it to be noted that Sway Away also received no pool votes! #14-#15 tie Elite Alex 5

Awesome Patriot

#16 Silver Medallion 4

#17 Anthony’s Cross 3 ½

#18 JP’s Gusto 2 ½

…with a multitude of others receiving votes of: 2 1 ½ 1 and ½ votes…

…and I might also mention here, that “Beer Meister’s” awesome come from behind, what 15-22 lengths off the lead, run and that of “Flashpoint’s” most dazzling stretch pull away display were made after many of the above lists so polled were forwarded to their respected internet sights…

(Note: ½ votes as such originate from lists larger than 10 and 12 deep)

re: Derby Dozen - February 28, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Coldfacts — Sat, 05 Mar 2011 14:56:52 GMT

Ranagulzion,

I have never disrespected Uncle Mo. I have repeatedly disrespected the hype as not all other 3YO are chopped liver. Let me reiterate, The KD does not start and end with Uncle Mo as there are other worthy contenders. I mentioned Fusa Code because I wager on him a 7-1 and was able to eat steak that night. His pedigree in good and one never knows when one of these RAN line horses will become a monster overnight. I find the runner up to him more interesting. The appropriately named Behold de Buy should have speed and stamina based on his pedigree. It should be noted his dam Beholden was purchased by Darley for $700K. She must have been a stand out. Her dam Godmother was sires by an unknown son of Seattle Slew (Showem Slew) She was in the top three 19 out of 23 starts and earned $373K. Can you imagine a $3700 purchase getting into the derby and actually winning? These colts are way behind the eight ball and are unlikely to make the derby unless one wins the Sunland Derby. With The factor heading in that direction it appears hopeless. The KD can produce strange stories.

Behold de Buy sired by E Dubai the fastest son of one of the greatest Triple Crown stallions ever; out of a mare sired by a Breeder Cup Classic winner was purchased for $3700.

NB: BEHOLD WHAT ONE CAN BUY WITH $3700. ONLY IN AMERICA!

re: Derby Dozen - February 28, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Dr Drunkinbum — Sat, 05 Mar 2011 08:45:10 GMT

Alex'sBigFan

Nobody knows. I don't even think the owners that made the change understand it. I doubt if Chip does either. The owners have probably realized their mistake by now, "What happened? Why did we do that?" They did the right though and retired the gelding. Some would have kept punishing him when he didn't want to race anymore. It was obvious that he looked excellent physically but just didn't want to race. The owners did almost everything right with MTB so I give them a lot of credit, and MTB is safe and has a good life now so we can't really complain. He may not have wanted to run for Chip anymore either. All is well. I also liked Summer Bird very much. He was probably more talented but for The Derby and The Preakness, and even The Belmont, MTB was tremendous and gave it everything he had. If he would have gotten the ride Summer Bird got in The Belmont, MTB had a shot to win that too, and he didn't have the best of trips in The Preakness either and still got second. Popcorn, soda, licorice, bonbons, and the Mine That Bird movie sounds good to me.

re: Derby Dozen - February 28, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Footlick — Sat, 05 Mar 2011 04:05:28 GMT

Carlos in Cali- he also won the Jersey Derby at 10 furlongs after being pushed the first 6 furlongs in 1:09 flat, holding off Creme Fraiche who won the Belmont in the next start. He beat the older Carr de Naskra in track record time in what is now called the Islin but then was the Monmouth Invitational, I believe. And he ran 9 furlongs in 1:45 and 4/5 in his prep before the Derby at Garden State. He bled badly in the Haskell or else he probably would have won that too. He had chips removed at 2 and was retired before the BC because of chips again because he was a hard running horse. Yes he was a fast colt. He proved it over and over again. Is there a fast Derby where the track wasn't super fast? Maybe he's not everyone's cup of tea, and things like Eternal Prince not breaking well happen all the time in the Derby. But his performance was dominating. The fact that it was a hot day makes it all the more impressive as we saw horses wilt in the heat last year. It was an excuse that many trainers made when talking about winning as well as losing performances, how difficult it was to run in the heat. Maybe his people were greedy. Maybe they just weren't rich and this was their only shot at money like that. They did race him often. He was successful. Too bad they don't race more often these days. Weren't we just lamenting horses light schedules?

Where he ranks with other horses isn't up to me. The question was what Derby victory impressed me. His did because his stride never shortened and he ran through the wire after setting all the pace looking like he could go around again. Maybe he didn't impress others like he didn't impress you, but he did me.

re: Derby Dozen - February 28, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

the illum — Sat, 05 Mar 2011 01:57:08 GMT

I think The Factor is brilliant but I wouldnt bet he could win the derby off two sprints and a 1 1/8 graded stakes on a hard new mexico track.On this same track baffert sent conveyance to finish second to a winstar colt in what turned out to be a three horse race last year, the form dosent hold for the derby.The year before Mine that bird finished 4th in the same race, after winning most of his graded earnings on an AW track in canada.I know he now has jaycito,lets see what he does with the factor.

re: Derby Dozen - February 28, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Alex'sBigFan — Sat, 05 Mar 2011 01:38:26 GMT

Ain't Easy,

Could be Mucho Macho Man, the one flying just under the radar. I like him. The owners just went to give Eibar Coa a written check in the hospital, nice gesture. They acknowldeged his involvement in the horse's progression.

Dr. D.,

Of the Birds, I liked Summer Bird more than MTB. I thought Summer Bird was the better athlete of Birdstone's offspring. How did MTB end up with Lukas and not Woolley anymore, I somehow missed that along the way, why did he not stay with Chip? I think both Birds are retired now too.

re: Derby Dozen - February 28, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

sherpa — Sat, 05 Mar 2011 00:13:03 GMT

Dr. D - belatedly, I want to mention that I liked your comment about the "early lists" (03 March 1:40 AM) very much. That's the right attitude! I don't have a list - I just enjoy all the horses and races - but I like reading everyone else's.

Absolutely agree about Mine That Bird's story/movie. The mind boggles at the number of YouTube video hits of his KD. He made it "safe" to be a horse-racing fan again for a lot of people, me included, and he was even more accessible to fans than Zenyatta up to BC '09. I wish he'd had a good vacation after the Belmont. I still love him and hope the movie happens and does him justice.

re: Derby Dozen - February 28, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Ranagulzion — Fri, 04 Mar 2011 23:17:46 GMT

Footlick,

I notice that we like a lot of the same horses of yesteryear. Spend A Buck was one awesome front runner and one of my all time Derby winning favourites. We haven't seen the likes of him since, to the point where nobody believes that front runners can win the Derby unless they get a false pace like War Emblem did. Angel Cordero was a no nonsense jockey but I didn't like the fact that he jocked-off Spend A Buck's regular rider that won most of his pre-derby stakes races. The very competent Charles Hussey, a compatriot of Rajiv Maragh, would have had an armchair ride in that Derby as Cordero was a mere passenger on Spend A Buck. I also agree with Carlos in Cali that he could have won the Triple crown in 1985 had the owners appreciated the pricelessness of winning the Triple Crown. Spend A Buck was a pretty useful stallion and could easily have earned more at stud as a Triple Crown champion. He has two good sons at stud, Einstein and Hard Buck (in South America) that could carry the "stamina torch" for the Buckpasser line which right now is being championed by the grossly underrated sprinter/miler sire Montbrook.