Derby Dozen - March 7, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

re: Derby Dozen - March 7, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

zarvona — Thu, 17 Mar 2011 01:23:11 GMT

Ok, anyone want to take a guess at the 2011 minimum earnings for a 'Derby gate' requirement!! $250K or higher? "225K or lower?

It seems that only a few years back we were debating a figure around $185K and saw $125K qualifiers. Thusly, what is your guestimate for 2011??

And, if you don't think that it matters, take a look at your Derby hopeful and see where he stacks up against current yet former 2 yr. campaigners among the leading earners presently who may knock your hopeful right out of a gate slot!! In fact, if "To Honor and Serve" fails in the Fla. Derby to be #1 or #2, what options would then be left open to him? Dropping out and awaiting the Preakness? ...or attempting another so present not mapped out prep trial run?, and etc.

re: Derby Dozen - March 7, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Alex'sBigFan — Mon, 14 Mar 2011 23:01:28 GMT

Forbidden Apple,

I sure did see Premier Pegasus sprout his wings in that performance. It was great.

Yes, the Timely was pretty much what one of the things Steve had surmised earlier for us, a public workout. I guess, however, Mo at least went through all the race motions, saddling, paddock, people, gate, etc. so it has to have at least some positive mental value. But will it help him to combat his 19 compatriots converging on Churchill all at once on Derby Day, who knows? Mo looked physically good, he did his job asked of him, I'll give him that much. Did we learn much, no.

I wasn't aware that Pletcher noted Life At Ten not right, then he and Johnny V knew and took a chance instead of erring on the side of caution I guess. Thanks for explaining ESPN's involvement. Then, that being said, I guess it does come down to Johnny V demanding Life At Ten have been looked at by a vet. If he knew she wasn't right he risked his own life to boot. Maybe it's a hard call to make, your're say a jock sitting on a mount, the mount does not seem exactly right, do you jump off and check it out or do you continue hoping it's nothing. I'm sure the jocks see horses sluggish who win and those keen and sharp who run out of gas later. Johnny V is one of my favorite riders. But now just watch, jocks are going to panic and we may see many more scratches.

Sluggish is one thing and way out of character is quite another, I don't know which one applies to Life At Ten. Apparently they thought it was mild or else why would Johnny V risk his own life as well?

re: Derby Dozen - March 7, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Forbidden Apple — Mon, 14 Mar 2011 04:51:57 GMT

Correction: Premier Pegasus sat 8 lengths off from a 44 2/5 half mile

re: Derby Dozen - March 7, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

zarvona — Mon, 14 Mar 2011 02:09:56 GMT

P.S. All I can add re my own thinking surrounding "UNCLE MO" besides his breeding,--which I am impressed by btw,--and this so in comparison to that of "Big Brown”’s own,--is that, personally, I still think this training method en route to the Kentucky Derby "STINKS" , where I believe that a more rigorous training schedule against the competition of the day and the month should have been undertaken. Again, “Big Brown” had hoof issues limiting his ability to take on more which undoubtedly he would have. Although, if successful, bravo and kudos to his connections, but should this method fail and “Mo” have some horrid May 7th Derby Day ride, it’s squarely going to fall on Pletcher’s and his connections shoulders due to their failure to map out a more strenuous course of competitive preps. And besides that, Pletcher, who maybe the most respected trainer of the last decade now, still has a horrible record on Derby Day. And achieving the winning of the Triple Crown off such a weak training schedule seems even more impossible as besides the still compact back to back nature of the races, still having gas left for the “Belmont” off such a weak month of preps going in seems extremely unobtainable. And, bet “Mo” or not, that mapped out weak training schedule really has me frightened. That being in thinking of throwing money in that direction on a horse that virtually by reputation of the BC Juv. win alone and the continuing press be showered to him will undoubtedly still go off on Derby Day with low return yielding odds, nice pedigree or not.

“Big Brown”: (Kty.);

8 7 0 0 ; D.I.: 1.67 ; Apr. 10th foal; $170K ’07 Keenlander ;

[[triple bred to Northern Dancer & dbl. bred to Native Dancer ; Round Table-Princequillo ; Nasrullah ; & Turn To]];

“Uncle Mo”: (Kty.);

4 3 0 0 ; D.I. 2.20 ; Apr. foal;.$160K ’08 Keenlander; $220K ’09 Keenlander;

[[triple bred to Northern Dancer & dbl. bred to Raise a Native–Native Dancer & Turn To w/Princequillo on the ‘dam side’]];

re: Derby Dozen - March 7, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Forbidden Apple — Mon, 14 Mar 2011 01:19:11 GMT

Alex's Big Fan,

Someone on another blog made a comment that Uncle Mo turned away a challenge. Did you see any challenge? The race turned into a paid workout when Madman Diaries scratched out. All things considered, Rattlesnake Bridge ran a pretty good race. He had no chance to catch a little speed horse who jogged 6f in 1:13 3/5.

By far the most impressive race of the week came from Premier Pegasus in the San Felipe. Did you see his brilliant performance? He sat 2 lengths off from a 44 2/5 half mile and then kicked into overdrive and won by almost 8 lengths.

One major problem that J.V. is facing, is the fact that he made his comments on national television. It's bad for horse racing and it is clearly horrifying for gamblers. If you remember back to the post race interview with Pletcher, he talked about Life At Ten's behavior pre-race in the paddock. He said that she was not acting like herself, but still insisted that J.V. see how she would act in the warmup. J.V. could have told an outrider or track veterinarian that L@Ten was off and in need of an inspection. Or he could have simply refused to ride the horse for her own safety and for his safety. In the latest report, it appears that J.V. told one of Pletcher's assistants after the race that he knew she was not right. ESPN has nothing to do with the Kentucky stewards or horse racing. They were simply broadcasting what they could. Yes, the stewards are state officials. However the chief steward(John Veitch) is a Hall of Fame trainer who knows and loves horses. The only thing I blame Mr. Veitch for is not ordering a post race blood/urine test on L@Ten. I stand firmly behind my opinion that Pletcher should be found accountable. He knew his horse was not right, but sent her out of the paddock anyway. The entire situation is unfortunate, someone needs to be fined and suspended. I believe Pletcher is getting the golden boy treatment and some people think that he can do no wrong.

re: Derby Dozen - March 7, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

El Kabong — Mon, 14 Mar 2011 01:11:08 GMT

Forbidden Apple, Coldfacts

I too read that article but I was already on Premier Pegasus. I was still wondering how he(Coldfacts) came up with Norman B so I didn't hesitate to put PP on top of Jaycito, many times in a tri that would have paid handsomely if Comma hadn't finished up like a bowery bum and let bench warmer steel my bundle. Ouch. Keep up the good work, both of you. A pleasure to be in your company.

re: Derby Dozen - March 7, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Footlick — Sun, 13 Mar 2011 17:26:04 GMT

Coldfacts, I probably misread the post, but it is even more of a slippery slope to compare times of different years, since the only really relevant times are the ones being run on the track now. Gulfstream was reconfigured since 2007, I believe, but I may be wrong. Mr Haskin said that the track was funky all day at Gulfstream for the 2011 FOY so he was disregarding the times and looking at the performance. And even though there have been a few fast times at Gulfstream, on the whole it is playing much slower than Santa Anita on a raw time basis. If we are going to go back in years to compare times we also have to compare the track variants for each of the races you mentioned and compare it to the track variants of the fast races this year at Santa Anita. Why didn't you mention the world record 6 furlong time at Turf Paradise since you are bringing up past fast times? On raw time that horse was the best sprinter ever, and we know that isn't the case. I still do not believe you can compare fractions at Gulfstream and Santa Anita with any meaning this year, let alone past years. But, differing opinions is what makes a discussion.

re: Derby Dozen - March 7, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Fran Loszynski — Sun, 13 Mar 2011 15:09:56 GMT

Robin M. Oh I know you mean no disrespect. I wish I had your knowledge of horseracing. Reading your blogs I learn alot and believe me I too questioned at first if the rail would benefit Elite Alex. I can't wait for the Rebel. It's going to be a nailbiter of a race.I believe though that Calvin knows he has to make a quick decision the minute he leaves the gate. Just think what he has to decide on: rail, hold back, go to the front, or go wide! Wow. You know though Tim Ritchey is an awesome trainer. I've watched videos of Afleet Alex over and over again and his strategy is awesome.

re: Derby Dozen - March 7, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

zarvona — Sun, 13 Mar 2011 06:12:25 GMT

RETURN OF ‘THE PEGASUS’

…If anyone was impressed by “Watch Me Go” ‘s win from a pace that clocked a 1:37.10 ; mile, where following he then got home in the final 1/16 totally pressured yet holding on by nose to win in 1:44.25 ;-- with a closing 16th of 7:15 ; --stamping himself as a true yet mild competitor , across the continental forty eight after rating off the most torrid pace of the day--: 21.75 ; : 44.58 ; 1:08.98 ; 1:34.55 ; --created from the multi present group of expected speedsters, stamping himself as even more of a true DERBY threat, and never near the front of the pack early on and yet also without competition pressing him home, THE SON OF “PEGASUS 2000” , “PEGASUS 2011”, romped home, finishing in a most respectful 1:41: 23 ; and in a final 16th of 6:68 ; --AWESOME !!!--marking him as a true top flight threat not only in the SA Derby, but with his breeding, a new true threat on the later Kty. pit stop as well.

Notably otherwise among the many others who were expected to perform better, “Brethren”–although his brother “Super Saver” didn’t really mature until Derby Day also winning only one prep and not impressive in his others also, “remind you of anyone?”--, “Free Entry”, “Awesome Patriot”, the gorgeous “Jakesam”, and even “Jaycito” were all major disappoints. If anyone wants to say that “Jaycito” got something out of this race after a lengthy layoff, the same could easily be said about “Bench Points” who also rated from well back off the pace. Additionally, “Comma To the Top”,--although with enough earnings already to potentially steal a low gate slot, proved again distance is an issue, where it would be nice if he just left the Derby trail at this point and went off to pursue a new Turf career opening a Derby gate up for some other late competitor.

And, if anyone was even paying attention,--to anything else besides that of "Uncle Motor's workout or that of “Pluck”’s non return-return, which I won’t discuss here,--in other 3 Year Old news of this mid-March Saturday’s happenings, Pletcher’s long awaiting to develop “Praetereo”,--another formerly watched from my ‘deep sack of potatoes’,-- off a slow pace to reach a Mile at 1:38.32 ; finally finished up nicely coming home in a 1 1/8 finish of 1:50.92 ; where finally after 5 tries he did finally break his maiden in a $52K Mdn. 1 1/8 event.

“Uncle Mo”, set his own pace to hold off late the developer “Rattlesnake Bridge”, whom may yet have a future. “Adriondack Express” broke his maiden in a slow 1 Mi. 40 event in 1:41:34 ; ,,,and this all of the while that “Duca” won a slow 1 1/16 out at OP in 1:45.51 ; Another seemingly slow finishing time was turned in by the 1 Mi. Turf winner “Lil Bit of Fun” in 1:38.22 ; in the race that “Pluck” never woke up to run in. John Shireff’s “Cloud Man” broke his maiden impressively in 6 ½ fur. in an awesome 1:14.27 ; finish off of a pace of :21.39 ; :44.08 ; 1:07.72 ;--AWESOME !!!-- early fractions, being besides “PEGASUS” maybe the other most impressive ride of the day for the 3 Year Old generation. And, off 'the TURF', the 1 1/8 victory of "Joes Blazing Aaron" (notably having been the 20-1 program long shot) in a respectable :24.06 ; :49.22 ; 1:13.48 ; 1:36.55 ; & final of 1:47.85 ; all besides being quite impressive by the time turned in after moderately good fractions, was even more impressive in the fact the bet off at 11-1 shot not only set the fractions himself but that he wired the field winning wire to wire in that impressive time of 1:47.85 ; picking up speed in the end over an otherwise quite respectable 3 year bunch, including 2-1 (2nd placing by + 1 1/2) finisher and Pletcher's "Queen’splatekitten", but also over the likes of "Master Dunker" (6th) ; "Ari C" (5th); "Newsdad" (3rd by a neck!); "Liberty Cap" & "East of Danzig" (4th)!

On the filly side, “Joyful Victory” romped home by 8 ¾ lengths ahead of few notable rivals covering a 1 1/16 in 1:44.83 ; also at OP. And, another of my early fillie dozen who the sportswriters totally ignored, “Wyomia” came flying down the stretch between horses to take the $75K Suncoast S., although the speed of the race seemed like a pretty normal low Graded event or an allowance type race. For short new speed, “Home Sweet Aspen” broke her maiden and got home in 5 ½ fur. in an impressive time of 1:02.30 ; as did “Run Candy Run”, a daughter of “Candy Ride”, covering the short 5 fur. sprint in another impressive showing in a maiden event in :57.38 ;

And so, another early prep Saturday passes, where the only runner probably gaining more respect to being a real Derby competitive threat more so than he did already going into the weekend was “PEGASUS”, “Premier Pegasus”, the son of “Fusaichi Pegasus”.

Paul Harvey… “good day”.

re: Derby Dozen - March 7, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Forbidden Apple — Sun, 13 Mar 2011 04:47:56 GMT

Coldfacts,

Even though I don't always agree with what you write, I do read all of your comments and take out which parts interest me. I always tell you that I appreciate your hard work and research. Earlier this week I picked Comma To The Top to win the San Felipe. But that was before I purchased a DRF and got to see the horses in the paddock and post parade. When I noticed the front bandages and dull look to Comma To The Top, I began to search for another horse to play. I thought back to your post earlier this week when you talked about Premier Pegasus. "If the blinkers are removed from Premier Pegasus the race is over before it begins". Alonso Quinonez surprised me when he took the horse back. I thought for sure he would flash speed again. Premier Pegasus ran a hole in the wind and completely smashed his competition. And he really did show tremendous speed again, he sat 2 lengths off from a 44 2/5 half mile. I thought his performance was far better than Uncle Mo's jog at Gulfstream. I played Premier Pegasus in November in an exacta box with Industry Leader. I had kind of written them both off as sprinters. This performance by Premier Pegasus must be taken seriously, I will surely play him back in the Santa Anita Derby. And it gives me great confidence for the upcoming race of Sway Away. Anyway, I had a $40 WP ticket on Premier Pegasus and it pulled back the cash that I lost earlier in the day on Keertana and then some. I just wanted to say thank you and I hope you made a good score as well.

re: Derby Dozen - March 7, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

El Kabong — Sat, 12 Mar 2011 18:49:19 GMT

Coldfacts,

No ridicule intended, it's just that I find it amusing that a man of such hard evidence has turned to faith to explain his logic. I like mo myself but I am not fond of his late beginning. The soft schedule doesn't sit well with me either, as much as I respect Mr. Pletcher's talent.

Did anyone congratulate you on your call in the Gotham. I will. Norman B ran a great race. Look into your fact machine and tell us more about this colt. He struck my fancy after that last race. Your fact machine has it's moments and I won't deny you that.

re: Derby Dozen - March 7, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Jean in Chicago — Sat, 12 Mar 2011 17:34:56 GMT

Zarvona:

Whole books could be written on Ribot (and probably have been). He was bred by Federico Tesio who also bred Nearco, sire of Nasrullah. If you go back in his pedigree, the great British horse St.Simon appears 6 or 7 times. St Simon was leading sire 9 times and leading broodmare sire 6 times.

Ribot was Italian 2y old champion, Ity 3yr champ and Ity, Fr and UK champion older horse in 1956. He won the Arc de Triomphe twice and was undefeated in 16 starts.

He was imported to the US by John Galbreath (Darby Dan) on a 5yr lease arrangement, but turned out to be so ill-tempered and hard to handle that no insurance co. would cover his return trip so he stayed here (lucky for us). Maybe this is where Nasrullah got his bad temper. It was said his chest was so wide & deep that it was hard to find a girth that would fit him. Probably his most famous sons were Tom Rolfe and Arts and Letters.

Caro (IRE) also has Nasrullah in his pedigree. In addition to Winning Colors, he sired Cozzene, Tejano, Dr.Carter and With Approval (Canadian triple crown winner and HOY for 1989).

Le Fabuleux (FR) can trace his pedigree also back to the great St.Simon. He was leading (FR) broodmare sire in 1980. My favorite of his offspring is The Bart (who raced against John Henry).

re: Derby Dozen - March 7, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Quiet american 55 — Sat, 12 Mar 2011 15:46:31 GMT

Would not worry about graded earnings for ea. Will take care of itself as distances get longer at oaklawn.

re: Derby Dozen - March 7, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Slew — Sat, 12 Mar 2011 14:34:24 GMT

Zarvona...Round Table was a son of Princequillo, and therefore would not have inherited the xfactor gene. You always have to keep in mind that it is the dams who pass on the genetic trait. Something Royal was Secretariat's dam..and she was a daughter of Princequillo. So merely having Princequillo in the ancestry is not as important as having it in a dam's ancestry.

re: Derby Dozen - March 7, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

JerseyBoy — Sat, 12 Mar 2011 13:26:02 GMT

Is this merely a coincidence?

By adding the Speed Figure to the Track Variant of Uncle Mo's 3 races, I get this:

93+7=100

91+12=103

94+8=102

The average is 101.66

The Beyer figures are:

108, 94, 102

The average is 101.33

re: Derby Dozen - March 7, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Ranagulzion — Sat, 12 Mar 2011 04:37:36 GMT

Zarvona,

In looking for stamina influences for potential classic winners I suggest that you survey the pedigree of the winners of at least the last ten Belmont stakes (2001-2010). You may be surprised to find out that Princequillo, to which you have payed much attention, seldom appears anywhere. In fact Princequillo, the broodmare sire of Secretariat, like Bold Ruler has been marginalized by AP Indy's failure as a classic-winner-producing sire. On the Dam side of Belmont winners of the last ten years you'll see Raise A Native often in the sire line, Northern Dancer embeded top and bottom in both sire's and dam's family, In Reality, Buckpasser and Alydar, top and/or bottom. The latter appears to be a strong influence when in a Broodmare's blood. A couple of old time influences that show up are Hyperion, especially when in the broodmare sire line of either sire or dam of the classic winner, and Ribot. For instance, Da Tara, Point Given and Sarava all had Hyperion in those relative positions mentioned.

Once you've made those observations, go to work looking for similar patterns in the current crop of classic aspirants. Good luck.

In this context let me talk about the overwhelming kentucky derby favourite for a moment. Uncle Mo has Hyperion via Sing Sing (i.e. in the broodmare's family of his grand sire, In Excess, an apparent good position) coupled with inbreeding to Hyperion's sire Gainsborough via Caro, as well as Raise a Native, in the top half. In his dam's family he has Alydar in the female family of his broodmare sire Arch (thus inbred to Raise a Native, top and bottom) with inbreeding to Northern Dancer (another good indicator of stamina being passed on).

Take it from me Zarvona, Uncle Mo has the pedigree to go long and he has genetic patterns congruent with previous Belmont Stakes winners. Its ironic that the presumable inhibitting factor in his stamina could be Hyperion's grandson Sing Sing (a champion sprinter in England that was undefeated in six starts as a 2YO, but never winning beyond five furlongs). However the greatest probability is that with the pedigree configuration appearing to enhance stamina as a dominant trait "Mo" is looking like the one to do what "Esky" missed out on doing last year, which is to break the 33 years Triple Crown drought with Johnny V sitting motionless in the saddle. His pedigree represents the quintessential combination of speed and stamina ...making him the ultimate equine "racing machine". How's that?

re: Derby Dozen - March 7, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Alex'sBigFan — Sat, 12 Mar 2011 00:20:24 GMT

Forbidden Apple,

What a name, Rattlesnake Bridge! That is one bridge, as sure as God made apples, I am NOT walking over!!! Ha! I hope it's Mo with the win now that the guy from "Mad Men" is out! We shall see what unfolds in this Timely Useless. RS Bridge puts the "squeeze" on Mo but the cat in the race could be the "snake in the grass." Sorry, couldn't resist!!!

Now seriously, the Life At Ten debacle decision. I cannot see Johnny V being culpable for this. In my eyes, he did his part by alerting ESPN, who in turn as I understand it, alerted the stewards. Doesn't it rest at that particular juncture on the stewards? I agree with you, I would have questionned Life At Ten's demeanor hours prior to the race. She was ok on the walkover? This reaction, or whatever it is she had, took place after saddling, leaving only poor Johnny V. to notice it? Owners and trainers noticed nothing amiss or out of character? The jocks, who are not with the mounts daily, and may not know the idiosyncracies and characteristics they possess as they have many other mounts, are left with a dilemma of "should every sluggish horse now be scratched?" This solves nothing. If they are going to continue to allow meds and sterioids, they need to revisit the rules for authority to scratch a horse from a race. What exactly are stewards, anyway? What about the vets say in the matter, do stewards have vet training or are they just racetrack officials? Shouldn't the next step have been the steward asks a vet to take a look at Life At Ten before loading in that gate? I just don't see this blame on Johnny V. at all.

re: Derby Dozen - March 7, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

zarvona — Fri, 11 Mar 2011 23:47:30 GMT

OK-OK-OK

Additionally: bred to “Princequillo” on the ‘dam side’: is “Uncle Mo” !!!!!!!!

Additionally: triple bred to “Princequillo”:

“Occelli” ; & “Twinspired” ;

…and…

Additionally: dbl. bred to “Princequillo”:

“Admiral Perry” ; “Chasing Moonlight” ; “D’Pendable” ; “Heron Lake” ; “Lou Brissie” ; & “Midnight Interlude” ; ... along with those already off the trial in “Crossbow” ; & “Prime Cut” ;

re: Derby Dozen - March 7, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

zarvona — Fri, 11 Mar 2011 21:12:06 GMT

As to i guess a less than brief follow-up to the discussion of the “Princequillo” appearance on ones’ ‘dam side’ as tending to lead toward ‘being bred for distance’. One might want to take a look at the lists to follow of a few of the top fifty to a hundred 3 Year Old thoroughbreds out there. And, only wishing I had a current “Tomlinson Distance rating to attach to each. In any event, thinking ahead & about the BELMONT ANYONE ???

triple bred to “Princequillo”:

“Ari C”: (T) notably as triple bred to “Secretariat” & dbl. bred on the (‘dam side’); d.s.d.s.d.s. ” via

“A.P. Indy”-d.s.: “Secretariat”; d.d.s.d.s.d.s.: via “Chief’s Crown”;

& (‘sire side’) s.s.d.s.d.s.: through “Stormy Atlantic”-“Storm Cat”-d.s.: “Secretariat”;

“Beer Meister”: notably as dbl. bred on the (‘dam side’) via d.d.s.d.s.; “Princequillo”; via “Kris S”; &

through d.d.d.d.s.d.s.: via “Secretartiat”-“Somethingroyal-“Pricnequillo”;

& (‘sire side’) s.d.s.s.s.: through “Pleasant Tap”-“Stage Door Johnny”-“Prince John”-“Princequillo”;

“Sensational Slam”: notably as dbl. bred on the (‘dam side’) via d.d.s.d.s.s.; “Prince John”-“Princequillo”

through “Cozzene”; & (‘dam side’) d.d.d.d.s.d.s.: via “Secretartiat”-“Somethingroyal-“Pricnequillo”;

& (‘sire side’) s.s.d.s.d.s.: through “Gland Slam”-“Gone West”-d.s.: “Secretariat”;

“Willcox Inn”: notably as dbl. to bred “Secretariat” twice on the ‘sire side’; as dbl. bred to

“Secretartiat”; (‘dam side’) d.s.d.s.d.s.; through “Gone West”-d.s.: “Secretariat”; &

directly on the (‘sire side’) as s.d.d.d.s.:; through “Harlan’s Holiday” & (‘sire side’) s.s.s.d.s.d.s.: via

“Secretartiat” through “Harlan’s Holiday”-“Harlan”-“Storm Cat”-d.s.: “Secretariat”;

dbl. bred to “Princequillo”:

“Buffum”: notably as dbl. bred to “Secretariat”; (‘dam side’); d.s.d.s.d.s.; via “Storm Cat”-d.s.:

“Secretariat”; & (‘sire side’) s.s.d.s.d.s.: through “Bernardini”-“A.P. Indy”-d.s.: “Secretariat”;

“Dialed In”: notably as dbl. to “Secretariat”; (‘dam side’); d.s.d.s.d.s.; via “Storm Cat” &

(‘sire side’) s.s.d.s.d.s.; through “Mineshaft”-“A.P. Indy”;

“Escort”: notably as dbl. to “Secretariat”; (‘dam side’); d.s.s.d.s.d.s.; via “Pulpit-“A.P. Indy”-d.s.:

“Secretariat”; & (‘sire side’) s.s.s.d.s.d.s.: “First Samurai”-“Giants Causeway”-“Storm Cat”-d.s.:

“Secretariat”;

“Free Entry”: notably as dbl. bred to “Secretariat”; (‘dam side’); d.s.s.d.s.d.s.; via “Pulpit”-“A.P. Indy”-

d.s.: “Secretariat”; & (‘sire side’) d.s.s.d.s.d.s.: “Tale of the Cat”-Storm Cat”-d.s.: “Secretariat”;

“Printing Press”: notably as dbl. bred to “Secretariat”; (‘dam side’); d.s.s.d.s.d.s.; via “Mountain Cat”-

“Storm Cat”-d.s.: “Secretariat”; &

(‘sire side’) s.s.s.d.s.d.s.: via “Tapit”-“Pulpit”-“A.P. Indy”-d.s.: “Secretariat”;

“Runflatout”: notably as dbl. bred to “Secretariat”; (‘dam side’); d.s.s.d.s.d.s.; via “Grand Slam”-

“Gone West”-d.s.: “Secretariat”; &

(‘sire side’) s.s.d.s.d.s.: via “Flatter”-”A.P. Indy”- d.s.: “Secretariat”;

“Sweet Ducky”: notably as dbl. bred to “Secretariat”; (‘dam side’); d.s.s.d.s.d.s.; via “Storm Boot”-

“Storm Cat” -d.s.: “Secretariat”; & (‘sire side’) s.s.d.s.: via “Pulpit”-“A.P. Indy”-d.s.: “Secretariat”;

… And yet here, the continuing suspect question must be asked surrounding all of those with “Storm Cat” breeding and his dismal non-Derby winner’s circle trip as of yet, although--(& like T. Pletcher last year as a 1st timer)--it seems in another post we were just discussing how such negative trends are records possibly only soon to be broken.

And, also to a brief follow-up to the discussion of the “Princequillo” appearance on one’s ‘dam side’ as tending to lead toward ‘being bred for distance’…

& therefore also notably discovered as singularly bred to “Princequillo” through the ‘dam side’:

“Albergatti”: (‘dam side’); d.s.s.d.s.d.s.; via “Sea of Secrets”-“Storm Cat”-d.s.: “Secretariat”;

“Brethren”: (‘dam side’); d.s.d.s.d.s.; via; “A.P. Indy”-d.s.: “Secretariat”;

“Cal Nation”: (‘dam side’); d.s.d.s.d.s.; via “A.P. Indy”-d.s.: “Secretariat”;

“Elite Alex”: (‘dam side’); d.d.d.d.s.d.s.; via “Secretariat”;

“Flashpoint”: (‘dam side’); d.d.s.d.s.; via “Secretariat”;

“Premier Pegasus”: (‘dam side’); d.s.d.s.d.s.; via “Summer Squall”-d.s.: “Secretariat”;

“Sway Away”: (‘dam side’); d.d.s.d.s.d.s.; via “Summer Squall”-d.s.: “Secretariat”;

…thusly, supposedly all of the above are influenced for distance…

Also:

& notably as discovered as singularly bred to “Princequillo” through the ‘sire side’: were …

“Archarcharch”: “Arch Traveler”: “Astrology”: “Bind”: “Chinese Praise”: “Economic Support”:

“Santiva”; “Stay Thirsty” & “Wilkinson”: ….

…And all being where, thusly, it might also be noted here, that a host of the other list toppers names do not appear in the lists above. Thusly, 'those others' must each on their own merit in the least be further questioned as suspect for adequately being able to sustain their respective brilliant speeds up to a mile and ¼ .

re: Derby Dozen - March 7, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

sceptre — Fri, 11 Mar 2011 19:35:35 GMT

Coldfacts-

4th Grade teacher's remarks were spot on and, despite your allegation to the contrary, crystal clear in message conveyed. As to the "status" you attribute to yourself and some of the other posters, I couldn't disagree more.

re: Derby Dozen - March 7, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

JerseyBoy — Fri, 11 Mar 2011 14:34:43 GMT

Ranagulzion:

Why do you keep imputing motives to others?. Is this a habit of yours? How can anyone ever develop sentiments for a first-crop sire? As I have said repeatedly, I judge horses by what they have done.

My method has seldom failed me. I have been using it for years. It enabled me to make a bundle on the last year's Ky Derby.

Those figures are provided by the DRF for a purpose. I rely on them.

Consider this. The numbers for Uncle Mo are:

93+7=100

91+12=103

94+8=102

They suggest a consistent level of performance.

By comparison his Beyer Figures are:

108, 94, 102. Do you think Uncle Mo's performances are as erratic as the BSF would imply?.

I do not rely on my eyes because all horses appear to run well when racing against weaker company. Eyes can deceive.

Look at Dialed In. He was beaten by an allowance horse in his second start of the year while receiving 7 lbs (matching the weight for age scale).

What I hope you would have noticed is that the figures for Dialed In's last race are better than his figures in his previous race. He ran his best.

On the matter of the Florida Derby. This is a race heavily influenced by post position. I will base no comparisons on it. However, if THAS runs poorly I will simply switch to another horse. I have no feelings for any horse. I am a bettor.

Ranagulzion, I am not concerned about your opinions. My advice to you is to respond to what people say without imputing motives to them. It is an annoyance but you do not seem to be getting the message.

re: Derby Dozen - March 7, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Coldfacts — Fri, 11 Mar 2011 10:38:24 GMT

Footlick,

“Comparing splits from Santa Anita with splits from Gulfstream is absurd. You should know that”

Since you did not list the specific post I will assume you are referring to issue of the closing for the last 3F of 9 races. Well, I encourage you to revisit the above statement after the bit of cold facts below. There are about 9 to 10 major 9F derby preps that are contested each year. Of the estimated 42 contested from 2007 to date, the 6F split in these races has been 1:09 plus twice. Do you know on which track the fastest 6F split of 1:09.89 was recorded? Not at the current speedway at Santa Anita. It was at Gulfstream in the 2007 FOY. Ironically it was the CA shipper Stromello that set those fractions.

Quality Road ran two track records at Gulfstream Park and one at Saratoga. His Saratoga 6.5f NTR of 1:13.45 is not dissimilar to the NTR of 1:13 plus set on the new SA strip by Square Eddie. If you have been reading some of my post you would have seen that I from time to time recommend the addition of a second or two to the SA times. Apriority recorded 1:14.47 for 6.5F on the GOP strip recently. The strip therefore is producing very fast by quality horses.

The record will reflect that the Gulfstream Park strip can be just as fast as the SA strip and therefore a comparison between the two can in no way be deemed absurd.

re: Derby Dozen - March 7, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

StonesRoy — Fri, 11 Mar 2011 10:36:20 GMT

I like how most are dismissing THAS after his 3 yr old debut...where he ran 9f carrying 2 lbs more than the two horses who beat him....off a 3 month layoff.

The weight they carry in these preps is huge to me, as they will all be carrying 126 on Derby Day. Very few have carried 122 and earned a better Beyer than THAS. Since I refuse to take the short odds on Mo in the Futures Pool, I think THAS will bring great value in Pool 2. A Pool 2 Exacta Box bet with Mo may be in order.

re: Derby Dozen - March 7, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Coldfacts — Fri, 11 Mar 2011 10:09:48 GMT

El Kabong,

Many thanks for your comments they have been duly noted. It’s not very often I am referred to as Mr. Facts. I like it as it give me status. In all seriousness the points you raised are legitimate.

“You keep stating that if a horse cannot do 1:48 and change in a 9F he doesn't stand a chance against Mo”

Uncle Mo recorded a time of 1:34 plus the first time at the distance of 8F. Big Brown recorded a time of 1:40 plus the on his debut at 8.5F. Curlin recorded a time of 1:22 on his debut at 7F while not keeping a straight course. Base on those times so early in those colts careers, do you believe horses that are consistently running 48, 1:12, 1:37 will have a chance against them if they report right? Horses with serious class even on cruise control pace faster than Soldat and the others behind him. The reason Soldat recorded the slowest time for the FOY in the last 5YRS does not lie in any of reasons you advanced. It’s said that time only matters when one is incarcerated. I totally agree as those who are recording these slow times are in Uncle Mo’s thoroughbred jail. He has destroyed all those that have opposed him to date and consequently remains the colt by which all other will be judged.

“Oh and the most enjoyable fact of all for you Mr. Facts, is your Boy Mo hasn't even run 9F's, so extrapolating from 8.5 is not a fact”

Oh how I love ridicule. The extrapolation of actual results give a good measure of projected times at longer distances. A colt that is capable of running 1:36 plus for a mile comfortably is likely to be very competitive a 10F Derby. The average time for the last 10 derbies run on dry tracks is about 2:02 plus. The average for the last 2Fs is about 25 seconds. Now let’s do the math. Uncle Mo ran 1:34 plus for a one turn mile in his second start. His mile split in the BCJ was 1:36.33 at two turns. If the average time for the last 2F for derby is add to Uncle Mo’s mile split in the BCJ the projected time for 10F is in the region of 2:01 plus. This projected time is well below the average winning time of 2:02. It is not terribly scientific by I am convinced it will take less than 2:02 to defeat him as he has already attained the average winning time.

“ It's a guess at best. How do you even know-fact wise- what time he will run it in?”

You are correct Sir. As projected above his likely time without attempting the distance is at the derby wining average.

“The difference is one of us will be cashing in, and the other will probably finding "facts" to discredit the results.”

I have every intention of being the former and not the latter. The race has not been run as yet. I claim the majority of the colts on Mr. Haskin’s list are slow by derby standards. You happen to think they are not fully cranked up. One colt came out and ran three lightening fast races and other have ran twice that amount and have still not displayed his speed. It will take more than cranking up for them have a chance.

re: Derby Dozen - March 7, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Coldfacts — Fri, 11 Mar 2011 09:07:56 GMT

4th Grade teacher,

Many thanks for your comments they have been duly noted. Like every other poster I am not above criticism. However, I find criticisms that are vague insignificant. If you have been a regular visitor to this blog you would have noted the manner in which I address issues submitted by fellow posters. I copy and pace the points from their posts and below them I cite my comments. By doing posters are made aware of exactly the issues being commented on. I regard this policy as an effective way to respond and one which is void of confusion. This is a policy employed by those who recognize that effective communication gets the desired feedback. You clearly have no such policy. However, you are welcomed to adopt this policy if you have the capacity to execute same. If it has not been exceedingly clear to by now, I am unable respond as you have failed to effective communicate what issues you are addressing in your post.

It must be blatantly obvious that the majority of the posters here are mature knowledgeable people who are interested in meaningful exchanges on thoroughbred issue. Consequently, there is little or no room for those who have not attained said status.