Derby Dozen - March 14, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

re: Derby Dozen - March 14, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Flynne — Mon, 21 Mar 2011 16:57:52 GMT

Hey Steve, did you ever get any more information on why Gourmet Dinner was shipped to Ocala? DRF frist reported it and I haven't heard a word of it anywhere since then. Shame, I really love his consistency and it'd be nice for everyone to be kept updated by the connections.

re: Derby Dozen - March 14, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

JOE — Mon, 21 Mar 2011 10:29:02 GMT

Coldfacts,

The Factor, proved me wrong.

re: Derby Dozen - March 14, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

redandblacksilks — Mon, 21 Mar 2011 05:09:59 GMT

SaratogaDreamin,

I agree with you concerning Calvin Borel. I've seen him ride many times and he is only half a notch above a journeyman jock. If the other jocks in the races he's riding ever wise up and stay on the rail, they will take a lot of win money out of his pocket.

I'm not ready to give the KY Derby to The Factor just yet. Nobody even made a half a?? effort to go with him in the Rebel. Additionally, the track was playing to speed. 8 of the 11 races on the card were won by horses who lay either first or second all the way around the track. It is a pet peeve of mine that track supers always feel the need to soup up a track before a big race or are influenced to do so.

I knew a track super who worked a given track for many years. He also owned thoroughbreds. Everytime one of his speed horses raced he made sure the track was lightening fast. Yes, Virginia, there is larceny in horse racing.

Well, back to The Factor. If he makes it to the Kentucky Derby he will be have to be party to a very hot pace and will have other horses looking him in the eye. If he is as classy as some think he'll take it in stride and perhaps win. If not, he'll finish up the track.

re: Derby Dozen - March 14, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

SaratogaDreamin — Sun, 20 Mar 2011 23:52:38 GMT

Roy,

the Derby list changes every week. Remember its a sport, with moving parts...Why are some of you guys so sour...Im sure the Factor was on all your lists since January....give me a break...more importantly, give Steve a break

re: Derby Dozen - March 14, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Zookeeper — Sun, 20 Mar 2011 21:16:20 GMT

Maybe you missed an explanation that Mr. Haskin posted earlier... he doesn't include a horse in the Derby Dozen until it has shown that it can go two turns, no matter how talented.

re: Derby Dozen - March 14, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

zarvona — Sun, 20 Mar 2011 20:16:40 GMT

P.S. OK, so who was that horse that I apparently failed to mention the name of in my weekend recap, well his name is "Maclean's Music". Being as how I was so excited in finding him, I see that I failed to mention exactly who he was and who I was referring to, that being if you on your own didn't discover who I was referring to. Sorry, my appologies. "Z"

re: Derby Dozen - March 14, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

roan roy — Sun, 20 Mar 2011 18:15:14 GMT

You would think the derby winner (The Factor) would be among your derby dozen somewhere, but he's not. Maybe you'll have discovered him by your next edition.

re: Derby Dozen - March 14, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

JJ's Lucky Train — Sun, 20 Mar 2011 11:55:23 GMT

I guess now you might throw in The Factor in your top 12 after the convincing win in the Rebel, wondering why it took you so long to spot a legit contender.

re: Derby Dozen - March 14, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

zarvona — Sun, 20 Mar 2011 08:52:17 GMT

OK ok, I have to admit it, I am feeling a little foolish now, having placed a smallish fortune on “Sway Away” (I mean “ ‘stay away’..from the finish line”, that is) to ‘place’, who placed right ahead of “JP left his Gusto somewhere else” for 6th !!! ….so, LOL at me.

And, as to my weekend report, where there is little to report, well in an e-mail to my brother I expressed that …“should “The Factor” be allowed to set slow or moderate fractions and not be pressed, he might wire the field”… as he did. Thusly, “The Factor” should now be some factor in the outcome come May the 7th. The fact is that, I am feeling that $250 - $270K might be the low bubble Derby cut off gate figure this year and that “The Factor” now has $270K, which seemly makes him a likely candidate for a gate slot.--Where now also actually I am hoping that Baffert tries to rate him off the pace in his next 1 1/8 effort and that “The Factor” then finishes a respectable 2nd or 3rd , thusly then making him a solid Derby threat to win!--Yet, who was the last Derby horse to wire the field? …“Remind your of anyone?:… could happen!!! My feeling is this may, I repeat may, be a potential other one who may have the capability to repeat just such a feat!

Although again, I hope in the next 6 weeks they can teach him to rate, even better. Allowed to set moderately good fractions,--seemingly maybe slow for him,--the world renowned speedster,--some dubbing him ‘the fastest horse on the planet’,--was able to get home in a quite respectable 1:42:19.

And why am I having such a hard time typing you ask? Well that’s because I have my fingers crossed as I played him in Pool #2 and got 32-1 odds. Yet, my fingers are really crossed because I am right now hoping that some Arab doesn’t come along and plunk down $12 million on him and not run him in the Derby!!!

And, although I said there isn’t really much else left to talk about here after this weekend regarding the 3 year old bunch, well re the Derby gate trail anyway, other than he and that race, well that’s not 100% true because I have one other 3 year old never known of to me before anyway, who ran in and won a maiden race that caught my eye.

Although, and someone might want to start keeping track of this lil newbie besides me… a Steve Asmussen; trained, $900K ’09 Keenlander ; who just (now yesterday) burst onto the scene in his maiden -3/19/11 win, being his 6 fur. MAIDEN win at :21.24 ; :43.48 ; :55.05 ; 1:07.44 ; !!!! Impressive?!!! YES, being only a ½ second off “The Factor’s” track record time of 1:06.98 ; but that’s not so much why or being that of his wow price tag that otherwise catches my eye and seemingly makes him feel so impressive to me. Then ‘why’? what is it? you ask, …well, it is in his breeding!

[[Hmmm $900K plus expenses (INSURANCE) makes for an expensive toy to have as a hobby you might say, especially where I am thinking that it’s a little late now for someone to teach a horse like this ‘to rate’ and then throw him into the Kty. Derby off of only 2 starts,--(that would shatter records).--yet, he is not even an Early Derby Nominee, making him for me to this point thusly off my radar, so that thought is just me thinking out loud…So, ok, we aren’t likely to see him UNTIL LATER DOWN THE ROAD somewhere this year.]]. BUT, from me, KEEP AN EYE ON THIS ONE!!!!…

Although he only has “Raise a Native”-“Northern Dancer”-“Nasrullah” , “Ribot”, and “Turn To” sprinkled through his SIRE’s LINES, impressive enough, being from “Distorted Humor”,--not bad,--his dam lineage is even way more impressive!!! Actually his price tag of $900K seems a little bit low for this one when considering his dam lineage alone. His dam is “Forest Music” by “Unbridles Song”. But, it is in her dam’s and dam’s dam’s and their lines in his breeding that any favored stallion to his dam makes the price tag of $900K maybe worth the price and some the price re a stud fee, and then that winning auction bid, huh? {{OR, the investors must be thinking like I am already, that any fillie to dam he produces would definitely be worth the fee to foal and mate to the favored STALLION or MARE of all time to !!!-- …like say, breed her to a “Curlin” or a “Big Brown” or who ever else comes to mind!!!--And why do I bring all of this to yours’, my fellow bloggers’, attentions?… Well, it is because on his dam side,--as one might note with a little lineage breeding investigation,--that it will show that he through she is “triple bred to the ‘big heart’ “X factor” gene’ strains!! , three of them? in fact!!…and WOW, where one alone would be impressive enough, and that all so, via his and her lineage traces to “Cosquillo”, “Mah Mahal”, & “Brushup”, …that’s all !!! …and that is why!!!}}

Paul Harvey "Good Day"

re: Derby Dozen - March 14, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

SaratogaDreamin — Sun, 20 Mar 2011 01:26:32 GMT

Slew,

I never said he was a bad guy...he's just not a good rider....Please stop with the nonsense about "not accepting Saratoga rides"..its laughable, every rider in the world wants to ride and win at Saratoga...and the Dubai thing, he won A race and was no where in the other 3...he won on a technicality...if you were to ask EVERY major trainer in the game to name their top 20 riders, he would not be on anyones list. sorry to break the news to you

re: Derby Dozen - March 14, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

furlongs — Sat, 19 Mar 2011 20:43:57 GMT

Your Welcome!! Glad you enjoyed it. DRAYNAY needs to stop giving out his locks before the race is run. It is hurting his Win % !! You know what they say if you lie enough, you eveb start to believe it is true... Take care and good luck at the windows, Furlongs

re: Derby Dozen - March 14, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

JOE — Sat, 19 Mar 2011 17:46:29 GMT

Slew ,

I am not a big Calvin fan but you have to show respect to a jockey that wins the Kentucky Derby as many times as Calvin. There can not be a person alive that would argue the fact that the Mind The Bird win was one of the best of all time. That ride was awesome, fearless, and crazy all at the same time. The jockeys that he passed in the stretch could not believe what they saw if they thought they saw something at all.

re: Derby Dozen - March 14, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Coldfacts — Sat, 19 Mar 2011 17:44:48 GMT

JOE,

I like Sway Away but he has a sway back which is kind of an abnormality of the vertebral column. This is the reason he carries his head that high while in full flight. It is probably the galloping posture he find the most comfortable. I do not have much data on sway backs but I hardly believe that condition is good going a distance of ground against fast horses. I am not sure how pressure such vertebral column can take. They will all be chasing The Factor. I believe the second horse will be a shot.

re: Derby Dozen - March 14, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Coldfacts — Sat, 19 Mar 2011 17:21:51 GMT

Steve,

The race ran by Picko’s Pride at 80-1 in the Southwest must put him into contention for at least another placement on the board in the Rebel. It was reported before on your blog that he had a brutal trip. However, that might have been an understatement. He drew post #11 and was pushed out further by the #10 colt at the start. He therefore had to angle in to save ground and ended up at the back of the field some 15-18 lengths of the leaders. He made a big move heading towards the top of the stretch and amazingly was the only colt at the top of the stretch that was in hand at this point. He was in hand with nowhere to go so he had to be angled five wide for a clear run and was gaining on Elite Alex fast to secure 4th position. He is has now drawn the #4 post and must be a dangerous colt if he report in his Southwest shape. His PP suggests that he is a genuine sort that always shows up. He is no slough either as he came of a 4 months rest to make his first start at Oakland in a 6F optional claim that preceded his run in the Southwest. He veered at the start and finished willingly to get beat by 2 1/4L in 1:10 4/5.

The Southwest was his first start over 6F. His sire Cactus Ridge a grandson of Storm Cat was unbeaten in 4 starts and I ready do not know what to make of his capability to sire rout horses. Hi dam was sired Wavering Monarch was sire of two times derby winning sires Maria's Mon. His daughters have produced 27 stakes winners and the earners of $24.6M. He was dam sire of the ill-fated Preakness Stakes winner Prairie Bayou who broke down in the Belmont and euthanized due to broken cannon bone. He only cost $10,000 and has never been of the board in five starts. I cannot see the highly though of Elite Alex finishing ahead of again. If his race in the Southwest was not a fluke he must be worthy of a place on the Rebel board.

re: Derby Dozen - March 14, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

JOE — Sat, 19 Mar 2011 16:21:50 GMT

There is no person in there right mind that thinks Uncle Mo after watching his races to date believes that he will win at a mile and a quarter. He was really trying to win the Timely Writer. I thought I was watching a claiming race at Finger Lakes for $10,000.00 dollars yes I said ten thousand dollars. You just watch today when Garret Gomez runs by the Factor in the Rebel Stakes. Distance is everything.

re: Derby Dozen - March 14, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

El Kabong — Sat, 19 Mar 2011 16:00:33 GMT

Furlongs,

Thank you for that, I haven't laughed that hard in a while. It explains a lot. The comment "Motarded" was spot on.

re: Derby Dozen - March 14, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Coldfacts — Sat, 19 Mar 2011 15:24:53 GMT

El Kabong,

You are correct and the the colt facts you presented stands as evidence. I was referring to the derby with my decline projection. However, If Ice Box did not get stopped a couple of times no RAN line horse would have won the 2010 derby. Let us not forget there were 8 starters from the RAN sire line and only one hit the board. Needless to say the Preakness and Belmont were won by horses from the RAN sire line. My decline theory was busted badly.

Based on my RAN line tracking list the following colts fit the profile you presented:

J B Thunder who is not on the derby trail.

Sinai who connections do not appear to be serious about graded earnings.

I have a funny feeling you are referring to Soldat whose dam was sired by Coronado’s Quest a son of Forty Niner. The dam of his sire War Front is from the RAN line. I would not have him as his first sire does not go back to RAN. I still consider him slow by derby standards and has only a remote chance of winning the derby.

I have added a new member to the RAN CLAN and that is Rebel starter Saratoga Red. He was sired by Eddington a son of Unbridled. Any stallion saddled by Unbridled merits watching as he is the best extension of Mr. Prospector. It must be noted that Unbridled is the only son, grandson or great grandson of Mr. P that has sire a winner of each leg of the Triple Crown. Further, Unbridled’s sons Grindstone sired Belmont winner Birdstone who is the sired of Derby and Belmont winners Mine That Bird and Summer Bird. In light of theses cold facts, I pay careful attention to the offspring’s of son of Unbridled.

Saratoga Red has one win in one start but is an interesting entry in the Rebel. His speed figures compares favorably with some of the other fancied colts in the race. Listed below are some comparative splits:

Saratoga Red Maiden: 23 1/5, 46 1/5, 1:11 2/5, 1:38 2/5 (Sloppy track)

Southwest Stakes : 22 3/5, 46 4/5, 1:12.00, 1:38 1/5 (Fast Track)

Saratoga Red made his career debut with two obstacles i.e., the distance (8F) and the track (sloppy). His speed figures for his debut are right on par with those his more seasoned fancied rivals. He must come back a much improved colt. The above speed figures compare favorably with those recorded in the 2010 renewal of the Rebel won by Lookin At Lucky (23.64, 47.70, 1:12.35, 1:38.41, 1:43.06) This colt is bred o go log as his dam sire Siphon was a dead router who finished 2nd in the Dubai World Cup. He therefore should be for effective at distances beyond a mile. With normal improvement he should finish ahead of the top finisher in the Southwest and must be a very live exotic play horse. He represents an exciting addition to the RAN CLAN.

NB: Wayne Lukas won the Rebel 22 years ago and ahs not won a derby prep inalong while and when he does it will be at a long price.

re: Derby Dozen - March 14, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Slew — Sat, 19 Mar 2011 13:22:30 GMT

Saratogadreamin'...First, the name of the horse is MINE That Bird! When Calvin goes to Saratoga, it's a family vacation, and he doesn't accept many mounts. When he went to Dubai, he won the Master's Challenge against the top jockeys in the world. When he isn't riding, he's mucking stalls and exercising horses for his brother, Cecil, who owns and trains his own stable. It's easy to be a top-rated jockey when you get the top-rated mounts, but Calvin rides many horses for Cecil who are simply not the best. He's always stayed with the same agent, who has become part of his extended family. He's always been a humble man who loves his horses, and works in one of the most dangerous careers in the world. I simply cannot find anything not to like about Calvin Borel, and 3 Kentucky Derbies out of 4 is merely the icing on the cake.

re: Derby Dozen - March 14, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

cuban chef de race — Sat, 19 Mar 2011 02:36:53 GMT

i was worry about A.p indy and Storm bird but i am okey let see what i can do.

re: Derby Dozen - March 14, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

cuban chef de race — Sat, 19 Mar 2011 02:21:53 GMT

to win the derby you need some rest at 2 ,gourmet dinner is a horse that for me is better then mucho macho men and when i see this match i pay attention to pace,why? because mucho macho men do not like a fast pace so i do not like nether but how the race is going to develop.

re: Derby Dozen - March 14, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

furlongs — Sat, 19 Mar 2011 01:01:38 GMT

Look everyone watch this if you want to see Draynay when Uncle Mo ran last...

www.youtube.com/watch

re: Derby Dozen - March 14, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Alex'sBigFan — Fri, 18 Mar 2011 21:52:28 GMT

Dr. D.,

Factor and Soldat are both by War Front, who in turn was by Danzig. And they both are ridden by jockeys with the last name of Garcia, one Martin and one Alan. I never realized that.

I was a kid when Bill Bradley was traded to the NY Knicks. But I remember the adults talking about him being called "$Bill" for getting a reportedly big salary, probably peanuts by today's standards! I remember the DeBusschere trade too, he was my favorite, he left us way too young.

If Uncle Mo does win the Triple Crown I hope they bring him in the Garden like they did with Cigar. How cool would that be? And I still to this day do not know how I missed Cigar in Madison Square Garden when I was in there all through the 90's!!! Must have been bamboozled too much by the Knicks that I missed it!!!!!!!

re: Derby Dozen - March 14, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

SaratogaDreamin — Fri, 18 Mar 2011 21:36:15 GMT

I say Borel is an awful rider because thats what the record shows...he can't get a mount @ Saratoga. Doesn't that seem odd for a jockey who has won 3 Derby's?his career percentage is nothing great, and when you look closer to see he was a basic journeyman at Oaklawn (which until recently was 2nd level winter racing) until he caught lightening in a bottle a few times in the Derby...For every ride he was fortuante on, similar to Mind That Bird, there are hundreds that he gets shut off on, that go unnoticed by the masses, because they happen in the 4th on a wednesday or similar... If you take away the summer Churchill meet, which he does well at because there is not another rider there of any national substance, his percentages are even more revealing... he rides most races the exact same way, "wait til the quarter pole and see what the horse has", he has poor hands and can't rate a horse, he also looks bad in the saddle(but so does Ramon, and he's the best)....class dismissed :)

re: Derby Dozen - March 14, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Betsy — Fri, 18 Mar 2011 19:25:02 GMT

For the poster who wondered about Take Control, I honestly would not hold my breath. He's out for 60 days (well, it's not 60 anymore) due to a shin issue; the horse is as fragile as glass and can't seem to stand training.

For the poster who said Gomez on THAS is a one and done - why? If THAS runs big in Florida, Gomez could very well stay on him. I'm not sure what to make of the colt, but I have to believe he's much better than he showed. If he runs well in Florida, I expect him to have a big year period - even if he doesn't win the Derby. I'd like Gomez to stay on THAS so he won't have a 3rd jock in as many races by the Derby time.

re: Derby Dozen - March 14, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Betsy — Fri, 18 Mar 2011 19:20:00 GMT

Wow, I'm just seeing this now. How on earth is Tapit overrated? He comes up with one big horse after another. As to Bernardini, talk about a rush to judgment. THAS came back very poorly, but his 3 year old season hasn't been run yet. He's got Wilburn, who looks promising, and Stay Thirsty. Also, Break up the Game and Opening Move. Plus, Biondetti overseas -and he's got a couple of others in Europe as well.

It's hard to ask for more from him.