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<?xml-stylesheet type="text/xsl" href="http://cs.bloodhorse.com/utility/FeedStylesheets/rss.xsl" media="screen"?><rss version="2.0" xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:slash="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/slash/" xmlns:wfw="http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/"><channel><title>Derby Dozen - March 28, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill</title><link>http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2011/03/28/derby-dozen-march-28-2011-presented-by-pauls-mill.aspx</link><description>Astrology hangs on while a few other horses are shifted in the mix.</description><dc:language>en</dc:language><generator>CommunityServer 2007.1 (Build: 20917.1142)</generator><item><title>re: Derby Dozen - March 28, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill</title><link>http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2011/03/28/derby-dozen-march-28-2011-presented-by-pauls-mill.aspx#171015</link><pubDate>Thu, 07 Apr 2011 00:37:17 GMT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">b1464f20-99eb-45e5-b651-41da03ecff36:171015</guid><dc:creator>Alex'sBigFan</dc:creator><description>&lt;p&gt;Forbidden Apple,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;You are so welcome. &amp;nbsp;You and your wife sound like great people and your little girl can&amp;#39;t miss with both parents loving horses. &amp;nbsp;She&amp;#39;ll be able to pick out great horseflesh by age three!!!&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;No, unfortunately I do not work in the horseracing industry. &amp;nbsp;But thanks I take that as a compliment, some people think I do. &amp;nbsp;I have a New York marketing and product background but not in this industry. &amp;nbsp;I have a pretty well rounded sports knowledge growing up a basketball player and my husband is a real elite NY Road Runner, ROY in 2000 for New York. &amp;nbsp;I have always been connected to the NBA, running, and like international soccer, not bad for a woman, huh? &amp;nbsp;Horseracing I got into just about 13 years ago but loved horses always. &amp;nbsp;I do have a friend who is a breeder, the only industry person I really know. &amp;nbsp;Kudos to Bloodhorse and Steve Haskin for making a lot of us outsider fans like insiders! &amp;nbsp;I think you said once you work in the horseracing industry?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Wow, me and Coldfacts right about Dialed In! &amp;nbsp;Even if the final fractions were slower than what most people wanted to see, I say that Dialed In proved consistency and did his Holy Bull run. &amp;nbsp;He fired and exploded on cue and that is what matters, he may have to step it up just a notch to catch PrePeg, Factor, and maybe Mo. &amp;nbsp;I&amp;#39;m not writing Soldat off just yet, remember that high Tomlinson may just kick in if Churchill is wet.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;img src="http://cs.bloodhorse.com/aggbug.aspx?PostID=171015" width="1" height="1"&gt;</description></item><item><title>re: Derby Dozen - March 28, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill</title><link>http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2011/03/28/derby-dozen-march-28-2011-presented-by-pauls-mill.aspx#170931</link><pubDate>Wed, 06 Apr 2011 17:56:00 GMT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">b1464f20-99eb-45e5-b651-41da03ecff36:170931</guid><dc:creator>Forbidden Apple</dc:creator><description>&lt;p&gt;Alex&amp;#39;sBigFan,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Thank you so much for all of your kind thoughts. Between me and her mom, I am certain that my girl will fall in love with horses like I did as a boy and my wife did as a girl. It&amp;#39;s to bad I missed out on thes blogs at such a critical time. If I stayed connected here, I could have purchased her a real horse with ColdFacts pick of Shackleford and my love of Dialed In. You and ColdFacts are correct, Dialed In needs to find another gear if he wants to be draped in red roses. Nick Zito is a master horse trainer and knows what he has in this animal. Everyone was saying how the best horses in the country were in FL, and Dialed In beat all of them off from 1 breeze. Now that the race is over, the race was slow and Dialed In is claimed to be average. I counted only 3 cracks of the whip down the stretch from Julian and I know his best effort is in front of him. If he runs 2:04 or 2:05 and wins the KY Derby, does the final time really matter? My biggest fears are that The Factor finds an easy lead or that Premier Pegasus jumps up huge in the S.A. Derby and is the monster that I think he is. Unless Mo runs 1:47 or less in the Wood Memorial, he is my 5th or 6th pick at best. I have my top 3 listed above, after that I think Soldat will rebound well and Sway Away still intrigues me. &lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Do you work in the horse racing industry?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;img src="http://cs.bloodhorse.com/aggbug.aspx?PostID=170931" width="1" height="1"&gt;</description></item><item><title>re: Derby Dozen - March 28, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill</title><link>http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2011/03/28/derby-dozen-march-28-2011-presented-by-pauls-mill.aspx#170837</link><pubDate>Wed, 06 Apr 2011 02:06:03 GMT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">b1464f20-99eb-45e5-b651-41da03ecff36:170837</guid><dc:creator>Alex'sBigFan</dc:creator><description>&lt;p&gt;Forbidden Apple,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Wow. &amp;nbsp;Congratulations to you and your wife on the birth of your new baby daughter. &amp;nbsp;How wonderful and exciting. &amp;nbsp;I wish her a blessed life and hope she grows up with the love of the horse in her. &amp;nbsp;I am remembering when I was a little girl I had a porcelain horse collection that I played with for hours on end. &amp;nbsp;Now that I think of it there was one horse, my favorite, in the collection, a bay with a dark mane and a white diamond mark on its forehead, no wonder why I love Afleet Alex so much. &amp;nbsp;Little girls usually love horses so maybe that would be a nice thing to get for her when she gets a little older. &amp;nbsp;All the best to you and your family with your new little addition. &amp;nbsp;How exciting to be born around Derby time!&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;img src="http://cs.bloodhorse.com/aggbug.aspx?PostID=170837" width="1" height="1"&gt;</description></item><item><title>re: Derby Dozen - March 28, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill</title><link>http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2011/03/28/derby-dozen-march-28-2011-presented-by-pauls-mill.aspx#170830</link><pubDate>Wed, 06 Apr 2011 01:32:14 GMT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">b1464f20-99eb-45e5-b651-41da03ecff36:170830</guid><dc:creator>Alex'sBigFan</dc:creator><description>&lt;p&gt;The colts after the Florida Derby:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Dialed In: &amp;nbsp;&amp;quot;Can you believe the two-leggers, man? &amp;nbsp;I practically fly from the parking lot and they say my Beyer wasn&amp;#39;t good enough!&amp;quot;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Soldat: &amp;nbsp;&amp;quot;Hack, hack, hack, ugh, cough, cough. &amp;nbsp;I&amp;#39;m choking on this dirt. &amp;nbsp;My rider kept me closed in, what in the hay are they thinking?&amp;quot;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Stay Thirsty: &amp;nbsp;&amp;quot;Whew. &amp;nbsp;They enter this Flashpoint and they gear up the track as if we&amp;#39;re going in the dam Indy 500! &amp;nbsp;Give me some Gatorade.&amp;quot;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Soldat: &amp;nbsp;&amp;quot;I was so mad afterwards that steam was coming out of my nostrils onto my hotwalker, hence their name!&amp;quot;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Dialed In: &amp;nbsp;&amp;quot;I&amp;#39;ve got this patented late run down to a science. &amp;nbsp;I&amp;#39;m not rating behind old or young boys again, I&amp;#39;m hanging out in the back and firing down the stretch.&amp;quot;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Soldat: &amp;nbsp;&amp;quot;Yeah, right Dialed In. &amp;nbsp;Mo, PrePeg, and Factor ain&amp;#39;t Shackleford, THAS, and Stay Thirsty. &amp;nbsp;You better find a faster gear come Derby time.&amp;quot;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Stay Thirsty: &amp;nbsp;&amp;quot;I miss Mo, I&amp;#39;m going home I don&amp;#39;t like Florida.&amp;quot; &lt;/p&gt;
&lt;img src="http://cs.bloodhorse.com/aggbug.aspx?PostID=170830" width="1" height="1"&gt;</description></item><item><title>re: Derby Dozen - March 28, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill</title><link>http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2011/03/28/derby-dozen-march-28-2011-presented-by-pauls-mill.aspx#170709</link><pubDate>Tue, 05 Apr 2011 17:54:20 GMT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">b1464f20-99eb-45e5-b651-41da03ecff36:170709</guid><dc:creator>Forbidden Apple</dc:creator><description>&lt;p&gt;Coldfacts,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I had a big smile on my face after reading your above post on Premier Pegasus. So many people on here give you a fight on your time analysis of races. Yet the same people talk about a pace meltdown and continue to disrespect Premier Pegasus. I thought your comments were excellent and I actually printed out your post and will be keeping it as a Cold Facts souvenir.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I became a father last week, my wife delivered a big baby girl. I spent four days in the hospital with her and lost track of these blogs. I was considering placing an exacta bet with Dialed In over the rest of the field, but never did. Dialed In was a standout to me, so I placed a nice win bet on him. And right after the FL Derby, two people at the local betting parlor told me that Hudson Steele was a sure winner. I rarely listen to a tip horse, but I bet him and he won for fun. I also had a small win bet on Uncle Sam. So overall, it was a good weekend for me. But if I had read your posts, it would have been an incredible weekend.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I love Premier Pegasus in the S.A. Derby. Who do you like for second?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Can Jaycito beat Uncle Mo?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;img src="http://cs.bloodhorse.com/aggbug.aspx?PostID=170709" width="1" height="1"&gt;</description></item><item><title>re: Derby Dozen - March 28, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill</title><link>http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2011/03/28/derby-dozen-march-28-2011-presented-by-pauls-mill.aspx#170602</link><pubDate>Tue, 05 Apr 2011 02:26:02 GMT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">b1464f20-99eb-45e5-b651-41da03ecff36:170602</guid><dc:creator>Coldfacts</dc:creator><description>&lt;p&gt;Excessive! Below are extracts from your posts:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I know he (Coldfacts) won&amp;#39;t listen, but everyone else who wants to know why a pure time analysis is fools gold, here &amp;nbsp;you go:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Since Coldfacts used Eskenderayas time in the FOY as his best source of &amp;quot;facts&amp;quot;, here is full exposure of his method&amp;#39;s defect.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This is why I do not compare apples to oranges, but other apples. End of lesson. &lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;your time for time analysis is not by any method, scientific or statistical, a method that helps compare because of the golden rule of comparable environments which is necessary for that method to be of value&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I WAS NOT THE ONE HOLDING CLASSES AND DECALRING WHEN THEY WERE AT AN END.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;img src="http://cs.bloodhorse.com/aggbug.aspx?PostID=170602" width="1" height="1"&gt;</description></item><item><title>re: Derby Dozen - March 28, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill</title><link>http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2011/03/28/derby-dozen-march-28-2011-presented-by-pauls-mill.aspx#170597</link><pubDate>Tue, 05 Apr 2011 01:47:13 GMT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">b1464f20-99eb-45e5-b651-41da03ecff36:170597</guid><dc:creator>Antman</dc:creator><description>&lt;p&gt;Joy&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I apoligize for the comment. &amp;nbsp;Somethings you have to see it to believe it. &amp;nbsp;Good luck on this years Derby. &amp;nbsp;I don&amp;#39;t read this blog to attack people or defend myself so I was out of line. &amp;nbsp;Hit me funny and I reacted. &amp;nbsp;Good for you on your streak. &amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I read this blog for the entertainment and some of the great opinions that some of the people have. &amp;nbsp;Never to old to learn a lesson or 2 and I have 2 times last week. &amp;nbsp;That&amp;#39;s ok, I can admit when I was wrong or out of line. &amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Does anyone know where thee is a site or blog that only horse racing gets talked about?Selections and information they hear? &amp;nbsp;I would love to just read a blog that talks about what I want and that is the Derby and selections for the weekend and not get such strong opinionaited people, I just want to talk about what I love and none of the other nonsense. &amp;nbsp;I don&amp;#39;t care where just love information for the weekend and the Triple Crown.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;My horse Soldat didn&amp;#39;t convience me this weekend. &amp;nbsp;Time to re-evaluate again, got plenty of time though.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;img src="http://cs.bloodhorse.com/aggbug.aspx?PostID=170597" width="1" height="1"&gt;</description></item><item><title>re: Derby Dozen - March 28, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill</title><link>http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2011/03/28/derby-dozen-march-28-2011-presented-by-pauls-mill.aspx#170561</link><pubDate>Mon, 04 Apr 2011 23:21:34 GMT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">b1464f20-99eb-45e5-b651-41da03ecff36:170561</guid><dc:creator>El Kabong</dc:creator><description>&lt;p&gt;Coldfacts,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;You are having a good lead up to the Derby so far picking longshots who finish second, but need I remind you who was on Super Saver last year and who was on Backtalk. Your excessive gloating is most unbelievable. One post wasn&amp;#39;t enough for you. You need 3 posts to grandstand your point. I could have written a book on your buffoonery from last year but reading it once was enough for everyone. &lt;/p&gt;
&lt;img src="http://cs.bloodhorse.com/aggbug.aspx?PostID=170561" width="1" height="1"&gt;</description></item><item><title>re: Derby Dozen - March 28, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill</title><link>http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2011/03/28/derby-dozen-march-28-2011-presented-by-pauls-mill.aspx#170552</link><pubDate>Mon, 04 Apr 2011 22:24:01 GMT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">b1464f20-99eb-45e5-b651-41da03ecff36:170552</guid><dc:creator>Coldfacts</dc:creator><description>&lt;p&gt;El Kabong,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;No need for crow you defended you position well. It’s no big deal the exchange is all good. I made a very good return on the weekend. If Shackleford kept a straight course the exactor would have been a signer. Well on the next set of 9F preps. I am sure we will disagree agin but it&amp;#39;s all good.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;FORBIDDEN APPLE,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Did you get a bit of FL Derby exactor?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;img src="http://cs.bloodhorse.com/aggbug.aspx?PostID=170552" width="1" height="1"&gt;</description></item><item><title>re: Derby Dozen - March 28, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill</title><link>http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2011/03/28/derby-dozen-march-28-2011-presented-by-pauls-mill.aspx#170497</link><pubDate>Mon, 04 Apr 2011 18:08:48 GMT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">b1464f20-99eb-45e5-b651-41da03ecff36:170497</guid><dc:creator>Matthew W</dc:creator><description>&lt;p&gt;Anybody that thinks time analysis is all that, ask yourself this: After a couple of years on synthetics, in where the West Coast Beyer #&amp;#39;s were not in the top twenty or so at any distance--all of the sudden they switch back to dirt, and there are the Beyers again, from Santa Anita , I wonder where they were when they ran on synthetics--speed figs are based on just that--speed--that&amp;#39;s why Zenyatta could run 1:43, 1:42, or 1:41--it depended on the pace in front of her--spreed figs are meaningless as far as closers are concerned--a very slow horse (Ice Box), almost won the Kentucky Derby last year--was he closing, or was the field just plain gassed?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;img src="http://cs.bloodhorse.com/aggbug.aspx?PostID=170497" width="1" height="1"&gt;</description></item><item><title>re: Derby Dozen - March 28, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill</title><link>http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2011/03/28/derby-dozen-march-28-2011-presented-by-pauls-mill.aspx#170496</link><pubDate>Mon, 04 Apr 2011 18:02:51 GMT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">b1464f20-99eb-45e5-b651-41da03ecff36:170496</guid><dc:creator>JOY </dc:creator><description>&lt;p&gt;&amp;quot;Antman&amp;quot; - your name says it all; ants have tiny brains. &amp;nbsp;My statement about picking the KD winner 20 years in a row is 100% true (I swear on my father&amp;#39;s grave) and yes, maybe I should have my own BLOG or whatever; I always do better than the professional handicappers. &amp;nbsp;I come from a long line of gamblers; great-grandfather was a professional poker player and every diamond I own, he won. &amp;nbsp;My mother is a professional poker player too. &amp;nbsp;Just because you&amp;#39;re a loser, it doesn&amp;#39;t mean everyone else is. &amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I don&amp;#39;t need to blog here to see my name in print; I win triathlons every weekend and see my name in print on the result pages. &amp;nbsp;I only blogged because I am very serious about my question. &amp;nbsp;I really do want an answer, just out of curiosity. &amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;img src="http://cs.bloodhorse.com/aggbug.aspx?PostID=170496" width="1" height="1"&gt;</description></item><item><title>re: Derby Dozen - March 28, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill</title><link>http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2011/03/28/derby-dozen-march-28-2011-presented-by-pauls-mill.aspx#170478</link><pubDate>Mon, 04 Apr 2011 15:21:08 GMT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">b1464f20-99eb-45e5-b651-41da03ecff36:170478</guid><dc:creator>Coldfacts</dc:creator><description>&lt;p&gt;El Kabong,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I like Soldat over Stay Thirsty and Flashpoint with Dialed In doing no better than 4th unless Flashpoint throws in the towel. Talk to you on Sunday.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Whatever time analysis system you have been using it is not working. Your one, two selections in the FL Derby ranked amongst the slowest in the field. &amp;nbsp;You have gone to great lengths and have even given lessons on time comparison and track variance and your system came up with Soldat and Stay Thirsty? You listed Flashpoint at #3. Did you look at his strides in the closing stage of his Hutchison victory? It would have told you he wanted no part of 9F. I have told you and the other Soldat supporters including Steve that Soldat and Stay Thirsty are very slow by derby standards. In spite of this, the spin on their ordinary performances continue unabated. What has happed to the El Kabong who posted the following on (13 Mar 2011 9:11 PM):&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Forbidden Apple, Coldfacts&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“I too read that article but I was already on Premier Pegasus. I was still wondering how he(Coldfacts) came up with Norman B so I didn&amp;#39;t hesitate to put PP on top of Jaycito, many times in a tri that would have paid handsomely if Comma hadn&amp;#39;t finished up like a bowery bum and let bench warmer steel my bundle. Ouch. Keep up the good work, both of you. A pleasure to be in your company”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;You clearly miss an opportunity to cash in on a lucrative exactor. Dialed In/Shacklefore. “You lead a horse to water but you cannot make it drink” Translation: People, like horses, will only do what they have a mind to do. &lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Below are exacts from previous posts:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“You are encouraged watch the emerging monster from the take no prisoners RAN sire line on Saturday. &amp;nbsp;You will see a display of speed and stamina that will convince you that Soldat belongs in a walking race.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“Soldat is very slow by derby standards and when he faces the 22, 46, 1:10 pace of the derby he will receive a rude awakening. The 2011 Derby will be about speed and plenty of it. Soldat is a close to the pace colt on dirt. He has either been close to slow fractions or setting them. He like derby pretenders Santivo, MMM, Stay Thirsty, Astrology etc. will be cooked by the time the first 6Fs is run as they will try to stay close to The Factor and Mighty Mo.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“Soldat will not finish ahead of Dialed In &amp;amp; THAS. There will be a pacesetter in the race to ensure he does not crawl as he did in the FOY”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;ST: If he is being intimidated by a workmate then he should be scratched from the FL Derby. The blinker will not help him against Dialed In Soldat and THAS. Although he has the powerful Northern Dance broodmare line in his favor he is still too slow by derby standards. Which of the top closers is he going to out close?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“THAS: “Breezed a bullet half-mile in: 49 at Payson Park for the Florida Derby” The 0:49 must be a misprint. Irrespective how deep Payson Park is 49 is slow for a top class colt.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“If a colt that ran the slowest FOY in the last 5YRS is Uncle Mo’s greatest danger then he surely cannot win the derby. Soldat is slow by derby standards and will not hit the derby board.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I am confident I can still make a believer out of you.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;img src="http://cs.bloodhorse.com/aggbug.aspx?PostID=170478" width="1" height="1"&gt;</description></item><item><title>re: Derby Dozen - March 28, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill</title><link>http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2011/03/28/derby-dozen-march-28-2011-presented-by-pauls-mill.aspx#170477</link><pubDate>Mon, 04 Apr 2011 15:19:39 GMT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">b1464f20-99eb-45e5-b651-41da03ecff36:170477</guid><dc:creator>Coldfacts</dc:creator><description>&lt;p&gt;El Kabong,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I like Soldat over Stay Thirsty and Flashpoint with Dialed In doing no better than 4th unless Flashpoint throws in the towel. Talk to you on Sunday.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Whatever time analysis system you have been using it is not working. Your one, two selections in the FL Derby ranked amongst the slowest in the field. &amp;nbsp;You have gone to great lengths and have even given lessons on time comparison and track variance and your system came up with Soldat and Stay Thirsty? You listed Flashpoint at #3. Did you look at his strides in the closing stage of his Hutchison victory? It would have told you he wanted no part of 9F. I have told you and the other Soldat supporters including Steve that Soldat and Stay Thirsty are very slow by derby standards. In spite of this, the spin on their ordinary performances continue unabated. What has happed to the El Kabong who posted the following on (13 Mar 2011 9:11 PM):&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Forbidden Apple, Coldfacts&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“I too read that article but I was already on Premier Pegasus. I was still wondering how he(Coldfacts) came up with Norman B so I didn&amp;#39;t hesitate to put PP on top of Jaycito, many times in a tri that would have paid handsomely if Comma hadn&amp;#39;t finished up like a bowery bum and let bench warmer steel my bundle. Ouch. Keep up the good work, both of you. A pleasure to be in your company”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;You clearly miss an opportunity to cash in on a lucrative exactor. Dialed In/Shacklefore. “You lead a horse to water but you cannot make it drink” Translation: People, like horses, will only do what they have a mind to do. &lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Below are exacts from previous posts:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“You are encouraged watch the emerging monster from the take no prisoners RAN sire line on Saturday. &amp;nbsp;You will see a display of speed and stamina that will convince you that Soldat belongs in a walking race.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“Soldat is very slow by derby standards and when he faces the 22, 46, 1:10 pace of the derby he will receive a rude awakening. The 2011 Derby will be about speed and plenty of it. Soldat is a close to the pace colt on dirt. He has either been close to slow fractions or setting them. He like derby pretenders Santivo, MMM, Stay Thirsty, Astrology etc. will be cooked by the time the first 6Fs is run as they will try to stay close to The Factor and Mighty Mo.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“Soldat will not finish ahead of Dialed In &amp;amp; THAS. There will be a pacesetter in the race to ensure he does not crawl as he did in the FOY”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;ST: If he is being intimidated by a workmate then he should be scratched from the FL Derby. The blinker will not help him against Dialed In Soldat and THAS. Although he has the powerful Northern Dance broodmare line in his favor he is still too slow by derby standards. Which of the top closers is he going to out close?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“THAS: “Breezed a bullet half-mile in: 49 at Payson Park for the Florida Derby” The 0:49 must be a misprint. Irrespective how deep Payson Park is 49 is slow for a top class colt.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“If a colt that ran the slowest FOY in the last 5YRS is Uncle Mo’s greatest danger then he surely cannot win the derby. Soldat is slow by derby standards and will not hit the derby board.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I am confident I can still make a believer out of you.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;img src="http://cs.bloodhorse.com/aggbug.aspx?PostID=170477" width="1" height="1"&gt;</description></item><item><title>re: Derby Dozen - March 28, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill</title><link>http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2011/03/28/derby-dozen-march-28-2011-presented-by-pauls-mill.aspx#170462</link><pubDate>Mon, 04 Apr 2011 13:14:34 GMT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">b1464f20-99eb-45e5-b651-41da03ecff36:170462</guid><dc:creator>Slew</dc:creator><description>&lt;p&gt;AAAAaaarghhhh! &amp;nbsp;Deja Vu slaps me up side of my head once again. &amp;nbsp;Last year Rock Hard Ten&amp;#39;s 3 year olds were full of promise, but did not deliver. &amp;nbsp;This year, Bernardini babies are having a tough go. &amp;nbsp;I really like THAS, but there was no improvement, getting rubbery-legged after one mile. &amp;nbsp;Dialed In was superior, but can he close like that on an Uncle Mo or The Factor? &amp;nbsp;Shackleford has to be commended; he&amp;#39;s had the #10 gate so often, it&amp;#39;s an habitual uphill battle for him. &amp;nbsp;But put him in gate #3 or #4..he wins. &amp;nbsp;I don&amp;#39;t believe Soldat can rate; trying it destroyed his run, but I wouldn&amp;#39;t count him out just yet. &amp;nbsp;When there&amp;#39;s such a tremendous card as there was at Gulfstream this weekend, I simply can&amp;#39;t find the time to cook and eat something. &amp;nbsp;Now, I&amp;#39;m starving, and I think there&amp;#39;s a sizzling steak calling my name somewhere out there.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;img src="http://cs.bloodhorse.com/aggbug.aspx?PostID=170462" width="1" height="1"&gt;</description></item><item><title>re: Derby Dozen - March 28, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill</title><link>http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2011/03/28/derby-dozen-march-28-2011-presented-by-pauls-mill.aspx#170444</link><pubDate>Mon, 04 Apr 2011 06:16:08 GMT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">b1464f20-99eb-45e5-b651-41da03ecff36:170444</guid><dc:creator>Coldfacts</dc:creator><description>&lt;p&gt;El Kabong,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Extract from your post&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;quot;Coldfacts, you&amp;#39;ll get your splits on Sunday as the weather is looking good for the Weekend, and so is the competition. Sit back and enjoy what your eyes will see. Soldat is going to dismiss this group and hand you the numbers you need to understand how much talent you have overlooked. It&amp;#39;s not too late for you to get on the bandwagon and I&amp;#39;ll save you a seat.&amp;quot;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Extract from my post&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I know you are a Soldat fan and I wish him the best in the FL derby but think his best will not be good enough. I still regard him slow by derby standard and he has to show that he has the numbers to win the derby. &amp;nbsp;Based on his FOY clocking I have projected his 10F time to be 2:03.27. The average wining time in the last 10YRS is 2:02.26. If the sloppy track derbies are excluded the average is revised to 2:01.63. He is therefore one to two seconds off the average winning time. I have projected Uncle Mo time to be 2:00 plus. He will be beaten in the FL Derby.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Teacher you need to revisit your lesson plan. Your attempts to discredit what I bring to Steve’s blog have failed miserably like many before you. I recognize that I get no respect for my thought provoking posts but I will persists in spite of this as I have a passion for sharing my views with others.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;img src="http://cs.bloodhorse.com/aggbug.aspx?PostID=170444" width="1" height="1"&gt;</description></item><item><title>re: Derby Dozen - March 28, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill</title><link>http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2011/03/28/derby-dozen-march-28-2011-presented-by-pauls-mill.aspx#170441</link><pubDate>Mon, 04 Apr 2011 05:13:58 GMT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">b1464f20-99eb-45e5-b651-41da03ecff36:170441</guid><dc:creator>Jim C.</dc:creator><description>&lt;p&gt;Coldfacts,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It looks like you and I were the only ones around here who were not buying all the hype about Soldat. &amp;nbsp;I cannot believe Steve had him ranked No. 2 on the Derby list. &amp;nbsp;His pace figs did not warrant that, as I pointed out repeatedly above.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Soldat only wins on dirt if he is controlling slow fractions. &amp;nbsp;That will not happen in Kentucky Derby if The Factor is entered. &amp;nbsp;He cannot handle a hot pace, even if he is rating off it, as the Florida Derby proved. &amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Soldat simply does not stack up to Premier Pegasus, who has brilliant tactical speed. &amp;nbsp;He can go gate-to-wire, or he can rate off sizzling fractions, go wide into the final turn, and clear off, as he did in the San Felipe.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;img src="http://cs.bloodhorse.com/aggbug.aspx?PostID=170441" width="1" height="1"&gt;</description></item><item><title>re: Derby Dozen - March 28, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill</title><link>http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2011/03/28/derby-dozen-march-28-2011-presented-by-pauls-mill.aspx#170409</link><pubDate>Mon, 04 Apr 2011 01:20:28 GMT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">b1464f20-99eb-45e5-b651-41da03ecff36:170409</guid><dc:creator>Jim C.</dc:creator><description>&lt;p&gt;Soldat was exposed today. &amp;nbsp;Could not handle a solid pace, even at a speed favoring track. &amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;img src="http://cs.bloodhorse.com/aggbug.aspx?PostID=170409" width="1" height="1"&gt;</description></item><item><title>re: Derby Dozen - March 28, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill</title><link>http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2011/03/28/derby-dozen-march-28-2011-presented-by-pauls-mill.aspx#170400</link><pubDate>Mon, 04 Apr 2011 00:03:35 GMT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">b1464f20-99eb-45e5-b651-41da03ecff36:170400</guid><dc:creator>illum</dc:creator><description>&lt;p&gt;Well now after the race I have a possible reason why Shakleford ran badly in the FOY,He is a speed horse that chased the pace wide.He came back in the Fl derby with a better trip and nearly won.There was another speed horse last weekend with the same pattern Pants on Fire seem to regress after the Leconte in which he came in second.In the Risen Star he chased the pace wide,and in the Louisiana Derby a race in which from first turn to finish line the only change in the top three was Liondrive fading to last he pressed the pace and won.I hope those on this board that posted about him had him in their exotic wagers,or across the board.In sprint races in one race a horse will chase the pace,and not come in the top three, and in the next race he gets an inside post breaks on top and goes gate to wire,with a better trip.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;img src="http://cs.bloodhorse.com/aggbug.aspx?PostID=170400" width="1" height="1"&gt;</description></item><item><title>re: Derby Dozen - March 28, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill</title><link>http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2011/03/28/derby-dozen-march-28-2011-presented-by-pauls-mill.aspx#170392</link><pubDate>Sun, 03 Apr 2011 23:17:06 GMT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">b1464f20-99eb-45e5-b651-41da03ecff36:170392</guid><dc:creator>Auburn Bill</dc:creator><description>&lt;p&gt;Coldfacts seems to be right more than wrong. He was on PP and now Shackleford. I am going to listen to what he has to say come May &lt;/p&gt;
&lt;img src="http://cs.bloodhorse.com/aggbug.aspx?PostID=170392" width="1" height="1"&gt;</description></item><item><title>re: Derby Dozen - March 28, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill</title><link>http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2011/03/28/derby-dozen-march-28-2011-presented-by-pauls-mill.aspx#170389</link><pubDate>Sun, 03 Apr 2011 22:53:59 GMT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">b1464f20-99eb-45e5-b651-41da03ecff36:170389</guid><dc:creator>El Kabong</dc:creator><description>&lt;p&gt;Coldfacts,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Congrats. I&amp;#39;ve got some crow on the barbie, what wine goes well with crow, I&amp;#39;m sure you may know that as well. &lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Seriously though, I have to toss you a huge bone on your faith in Shackleford. He ran a smart race on the lead today and finished strong. Dialed in was the real winner but you gained more Kudos from me today than Zito. &lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I was not happy with the race strategy on Soldat, he needed to be closer to the pace but like you with Shackleford, I am not throwing in the towel on Soldat just yet. I&amp;#39;ll see &amp;nbsp;how he trains up. &lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The real irony of the day happened this morning on my local sports radio program&amp;#39;s contest Decide The Derby. Answering the trivia question correctly first, I was given the opportunity to receive a $100 win ticket for the horse of my choosing. Dialed In, Uncle Moe, Wilburn, The Factor, Sway Away, and Soldat had been chosen. My Pick..................Premier Pegasus. We may end up rooting for the same horse yet. &lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Again,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I am impressed with your pick today. Now if you don&amp;#39;t mind, I have some applewood smoked crow to eat. &lt;/p&gt;
&lt;img src="http://cs.bloodhorse.com/aggbug.aspx?PostID=170389" width="1" height="1"&gt;</description></item><item><title>re: Derby Dozen - March 28, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill</title><link>http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2011/03/28/derby-dozen-march-28-2011-presented-by-pauls-mill.aspx#170384</link><pubDate>Sun, 03 Apr 2011 22:05:05 GMT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">b1464f20-99eb-45e5-b651-41da03ecff36:170384</guid><dc:creator>Paula Higgins</dc:creator><description>&lt;p&gt;Well, the Florida Derby was a shock. By that, I mean to see Soldat not fire at all. Was surprised that To Honor and Serve &amp;nbsp;did that well. I think he is really regressing. Dialed In was impressive. Stay Thirsty did pretty much what I thought he would. So this changes the top 10 by a bit. No one stands out still except Uncle Mo, and to a lesser degree, The Factor if he can get the distance, and Premiere Pegasus. &lt;/p&gt;
&lt;img src="http://cs.bloodhorse.com/aggbug.aspx?PostID=170384" width="1" height="1"&gt;</description></item><item><title>re: Derby Dozen - March 28, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill</title><link>http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2011/03/28/derby-dozen-march-28-2011-presented-by-pauls-mill.aspx#170383</link><pubDate>Sun, 03 Apr 2011 22:03:56 GMT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">b1464f20-99eb-45e5-b651-41da03ecff36:170383</guid><dc:creator>Dr Drunkinbum</dc:creator><description>&lt;p&gt;So much for Soldat and Stay Thirsty. The seperation has started. My post FL Derby Dozen at firsrt glance&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;1. Premier Pegasus&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;2. Dialed In&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;3. Uncle Mo&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;4. The Factor&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;5. Archarcharch&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;6. Silver Medallion&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;7. To Honor And Serve&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;8. Jaycito&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;9. Pants On Fire&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;10. Nehro&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;11. Shackleford&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;12. Elite Alex&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;img src="http://cs.bloodhorse.com/aggbug.aspx?PostID=170383" width="1" height="1"&gt;</description></item><item><title>re: Derby Dozen - March 28, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill</title><link>http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2011/03/28/derby-dozen-march-28-2011-presented-by-pauls-mill.aspx#170377</link><pubDate>Sun, 03 Apr 2011 20:43:44 GMT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">b1464f20-99eb-45e5-b651-41da03ecff36:170377</guid><dc:creator>illum</dc:creator><description>&lt;p&gt;One factor I dont remember reading about on this blog,but it is very important if talking about the Triple Crown is medication.I have read something written by a very known trainer about this subject.He has stated that he does not believe a horse will win the triple crown because of the use of Lasix,and the dehydration that occurs because of its usage.I would be interested in other opinions on this subject.Everyone that post on this blog has heard the term bounce,could Lasix have something to do with this.A trainer that runs a large stable not only has to condition his animals but he must become an expert in medicating them to get them to peak in the right race.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;img src="http://cs.bloodhorse.com/aggbug.aspx?PostID=170377" width="1" height="1"&gt;</description></item><item><title>re: Derby Dozen - March 28, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill</title><link>http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2011/03/28/derby-dozen-march-28-2011-presented-by-pauls-mill.aspx#170342</link><pubDate>Sun, 03 Apr 2011 13:25:05 GMT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">b1464f20-99eb-45e5-b651-41da03ecff36:170342</guid><dc:creator>Coldfacts</dc:creator><description>
&lt;p&gt;El Kabong,&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;“You are starting to realize that to get a good judge of a time, you need to compare it to times run that day at the same track. This is why I do not compare apples to oranges, but other apples. End of lesson”&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Teacher, are you aware that fast horses normally record fast time on most tracks they compete in spite of track conditions. Street Sense came off a 5 months respite and set a NTR at Tampa Bay a tack that rarely produces track records. Uncle Mo won three 2YO races at three different tracks and ran fast on every occasion. Was he the beneficiary of fast track on each occasion? We are well aware of the impact of track conditions on resulting times. Does this mean comparison should not be made and adjustments made for these variables? When Quality Road won the 2009 FL Derby, a lot of folks claimed the track was playing fast. I did a comparison of fractions for the previous three FL derbies and the fractions for the first 4 quarters were not dissimilar to those recorded in 2009. The difference was in the last furlong. Did the track maintenance team make the furlong preceding the finish line faster in 2009? &amp;nbsp;It’s a stretch to come to such a conclusion. Quality Road returned the following year to set a NTR for the same distance on a supposedly different tack.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;“Your time for time analysis is not by any method, scientific or statistical, a method that helps compare because of the golden rule of comparable environments which is necessary for that method to be of value”&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;I am not fixated on times. However, when Soldat runs the slowest FOY in the last five years and is ranked #2 in Steve’s &amp;nbsp;Dozen it leads one to believe that this crop of 3YOS are very slow. The times he has been running for 3/8 of a mile puts him 10L behind the derby leader at that point. Do you expect him to out close Dialed In and Jaycito? He will be 10L behind press button horses like The Factor, Premier Pegasus and Uncle Mo. He cannot make up 10L and have anything left to launch a serious challenge for a victory. Those colts are just too good. &lt;/p&gt;
&lt;img src="http://cs.bloodhorse.com/aggbug.aspx?PostID=170342" width="1" height="1"&gt;</description></item><item><title>re: Derby Dozen - March 28, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill</title><link>http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2011/03/28/derby-dozen-march-28-2011-presented-by-pauls-mill.aspx#170336</link><pubDate>Sun, 03 Apr 2011 12:44:41 GMT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">b1464f20-99eb-45e5-b651-41da03ecff36:170336</guid><dc:creator>Coldfacts</dc:creator><description>
&lt;p&gt;El Kabong,&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Welcome to the band of posters who have gone into attack mode against the Coldfacts. &amp;nbsp;Let me address some of your points:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;“Thanks for the Shackelford demonstration of why your pure time analysis is completely worthless”&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;My analysis did not focus purely on the fractions of the FOY and the allowance races. The times were displayed to show why Shackelford was expected to be competitive. I posted some questions regarding his performance:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;What happened to Shackleford in the FOY?&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Why did he run so badly?&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Could it be that his return was too quick?&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Could it have been the track conditions that day?&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Could it be he is just not good enough to compete against the big boys?&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;I specified that his performance was likely to be linked to the last question posed. The questions above clearly indicated that a number of possibilities were being examined for his poor performance. You have chosen to focus on the time comparison and track conditions that was cited in one of the questions.. Are time comparisons worthless based on continually changing track and wind conditions? &amp;nbsp;Not in my opinion. When Larry Jones was asked why the connections entered the ill-fated Eights Belles in the KD he replied, they examined the numbers and were of the opinion that she belonged. I am of the opinion the connections of Shackelford examined the numbers and were of the opinion that he belonged in the FOY. You are advised to amend your post and advise them that their time analysis was worthless. Shackelford got beat 25L and I project the final time for his FOY to be 1:55 plus. Do you believe his connection expected him to run 1:55 in his second attempt at 9F? The colt poor performance has left a lot of questions unanswered. I have just posed few above.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;“There was another race at that distance, Alw 3yr NW1 X which included the likes of Nacho Business, Arch Traveler and Washington Rules ran in 1:52.36.”&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;If Shackle ford had run 1:52.36 he would have been beaten 10L and a bit. He ran 1:55 plus and would have finished 15L behind Arch Travelers. Nacho Business and Arch Traveler and Washington Rules &amp;nbsp;were probably trying the distance for the first time. Shackleford was expected to improve off his first winning start at the distance. The same day of the FOY the fillies ran 6Fin 1:10 and a bit and 1:36 plus for a mile. R Heat Lightening eventually won that race. Those fractions were one to two seconds faster than the FOY. Can you imagine fillies running faster than on The Factor on the same day?&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;“Tracks conditions play an enormous factor in times and that&amp;#39;s why a direct comparison of times is worthless”&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;I have been following thoroughbred racing long enough to know the above. However, when a colt times declines by 5 seconds the track conditions invariably is not the only factor in play.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;“Sunday will be an eye opener for one of us”&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;I know you are a Soldat fan and I wish him the best in the FL derby but think his best will not be good enough. I still regard him slow by derby standard and he has to show that he has the numbers to win the derby. &amp;nbsp;Based on his FOY clocking I have projected his 10F time to be 2:03.27. The average wining time in the last 10YRS is 2:02.26. If the sloppy track derbies are excluded the average is revised to 2:01.63. He is therefore one second off the average winning time. I have projected Uncle Mo time to be 2:00 plus. He will be beaten in the FL Derby.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;NB: You are encouraged watch the emerging monster from the take no prisoners RAN sire line on Saturday. &amp;nbsp;You will see a display of speed and stamina that will convince you Soldat belongs in a walking race. You points have been noted.&lt;/p&gt;
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