Derby Dozen - April 4, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

re: Derby Dozen - April 4, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

KY VET — Wed, 13 Apr 2011 05:53:59 GMT

WOW! SAME OLD COLDFACTS! HE USED TO SPOUT OFF ON MSN CHAT. NEVER RIGHT FACTS.. TALKS ABOUT WEAKENED BREED...HORSES ARE PREHISTORIC..CAN'T WEAKEN THE BREED IN 20 OR 50 YEARS VERY MUCH..LEARN SCIENCE...THERE ARE PEOPLE THAT KEEP SAYING THAT...PEOPLE HEAR IT...BELIEVE IT TO BE TRUE....THE MOST RECENT STUDY SHOWS NO DIFFERENCE.....AND BAFFERT FAKED INJURY? BECAUSE HE KNEW HIS OTHER HORSE WOULD WIN? REALLY? PEOPLE ARE SUPPOSED TO BELIEVE THIS? FACTS? HARDLY ANYTHING THIS GUY SAYS, ARE FACTS..JAYCITO? YOU LIKE THIS HORSE? YOU DONT LIKE DIALED IN BECAUSE OF HIS STRIDE, BUT LIKE A HORSE THAT LUGGED OUT /BOLTED? YEA FACTS....

re: Derby Dozen - April 4, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Forbidden Apple — Wed, 13 Apr 2011 01:32:55 GMT

Yes Coldfacts,

I am convinced as of today that Dialed In is the best 3 y/o colt in the land. I am also looking forward to Sway Away's next start, he still interests me a great deal.

re: Derby Dozen - April 4, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Ranagulzion — Tue, 12 Apr 2011 07:42:44 GMT

Coldfacts,

Dialed In will embarass you in the Derby because you completely overlook the fact that he is a lightly raced colt with a lot scope for improvement. He appears to be an intelligent horse that knows where the winning post is and when his job is done. Trainer Nick Zito knows the way to the winner's circle and will present his charge sharper than a razor to mow down that 20 horse field on May 7 (no pun on UM intended).

re: Derby Dozen - April 4, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

count fleet — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 18:56:33 GMT

boy the uncle mo fans sure got awful quiet ! what an overrated hay burner he turned out to be !

re: Derby Dozen - April 4, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

ocean roll — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 18:53:04 GMT

to: robinm , how do you like uncle mo now ? third place ? lol ! i KNOW horses sweeheart ! have your money on the factor come derby day !

re: Derby Dozen - April 4, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Ranagulzion — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 07:53:12 GMT

Coldfacts,

This past weekend was relly tough on my handicapping prowess I admit. And you've come out smelling like roses although you had not the courage to name your picks in those races. Anyway I'll eat my crow and as the faithfull saying goes "Today for you tommorow for me"

On the issue of Bernardini's chances as first crop Derby-winner-producing sire, my position is based upon the cold fact that the Bold Ruler line via the Seattle Slew branch has only produced Swale back in 1984. The AP Indy branch of Seattle Slew has yet to score and you know full well that it is hardly likely to happen for a first crop sire from that non-performing line (in terms of the Kentucky Derby). If your latest hope, Arthur's Tale does it for Bernardini he would've silenced my ramblings on these blogs forever. You are unpredictable with your use of the cold facts, thats or sure.

re: Derby Dozen - April 4, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Ranagulzion — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 07:25:04 GMT

Jersey Boy,

I quote you "tripe might be good to eat it is never worth reading ...Well, I do read your entries."

Your admitted reading of my posts and oblique references to them belies what you would have us believe, that my views are "tripe", unless you make a habit of doing a lot of worthless things. I think better of you.

re: Derby Dozen - April 4, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

redandblacksilks — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 03:01:10 GMT

As I said, horses are like people. They have their frailties and that has been amply illustrated the past few days. In this country we have been stuck in the same rut, breeding for speed, for so long that we have weakened the breed considerably. As their structure has changed, giving them more muscle mass, their legs have become more spindly. It is a bad combination. When you add more size, and more power and all of that is carried around on four toothpicks it is a formula for disaster. Injuries are much more frequent than they need to be.

Sly Bob is even slicker than I thought. Midnight Interlude wouldn't be going to the Derby if he hadn't scratched Jaycito. He needed a win to have enough money to go and Baffert knew he couldn't beat Jaycito. You will note that he didn't scratch Jaycito until after Premier Pegasus scratched. Jaycito will win the Lexington and assuming nothing happens with The Factor, he'll have three entrants.

Forbidden Apple,

Don't forget that a number of "name" trainers had horses test positive for cocaine some years back and that happened right after they started checking for that particular drug. Who knows how long they used the drug in the years leading up to that time. Of course the excuse is always the same, "One of my grooms or hotwalkers must have had some on his hands or something and the horse accidently ingested some of it." I guess P Val must have accidently snorted some of it too while a hotwalker was helping him blow his nose.

I love the game but I also love horses. Without them there is no industry. Remember, the horse doesn't get to choose whether he will run in races or not. Since horsemen make that decision for the horses they should at least do their uptmost to insure that their methods aren't cruel and will not injure or poison the athletes who run the races.

I think the Derby picture will begin to become clear after the two big races to be run next weekened, the Arkansas Derby, and Bluegrass. Clearly, Uncle Mo, is not unbeatable and with all of the speed headed to the Derby I don't think a speed horse can win, which eliminates The Factor. Still leaves eight or ten horses mid pack or back that like to do most of their running in the lane. After next weekend I'll try to pinpoint three or four to box in a Derby exacta.

re: Derby Dozen - April 4, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Coldfacts — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 02:56:52 GMT

Forbidden Apple,

A lot of changes have taken place since Unbridles victory in the FL Derby. The Gulfstream Park track is now much faster. Unbridled had a more fluent efficient galloping action. Dialed In is going to tire badly in the last furlong of the derby. He will not be able to carry 126LBS on the Churchill Downs surface and win with that kind of action. Do you believe he can finish ahead of Schakleford in the derby if he gets in? He did not pass him in the gallop out. Schakleford last 3/8ths were just too slow and reflect badly on Dialed In as he struggled to get by. He is not going to be able to pass The Factor if he is allowed to run the first 6F in 1:11 as he will be able to run the next 4F in 50 and win. Dialed In cannot record a time of 2:01 and that is what it will take to win the 2011 Derby.

re: Derby Dozen - April 4, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Zookeeper — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 02:28:29 GMT

Mr. Haskin,

I can't wait to see your Derby Dozen tomorrow. So much has happened the last few days, it's enough to make my head spin!!! I don't envy your having to sort through all that and coming up with something logical.

It's not so much the ranking I'm looking forward to (although I'm dying to know), but mostly the comments and articles to follow.

However if Uncle Mo is still #1, I'll be as stunned as I was watching the Wood. :)

re: Derby Dozen - April 4, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

KY VET — Sun, 10 Apr 2011 17:46:07 GMT

COLDFACTS! I HAVENT SEEN YOU SINCE MSN RACING CHAT! TO EVERYONE THAT READS YOUR POSTS.....YOU WERE WRONG ON JUST ABOUT EVERYTHING BACK THEN, AND JUST ABOUT EVERYTHING NOW.....HAVE YOU NOT LEARNED ANYTHING? THE FUNNIEST THING YOU DO IS, SAY THESE WACKY THINGS, AND PRESENT THEM AS "FACTS"..."NO HORSE WITH 3 LEGS HAS EVER WON THE DERBY" NO HORSE WITH 7 LETTERS RACING ON A THURSDAY, HAS EVER WON THE DERBY FROM POST 8 IN THIRTY YEARS".. JUST WACKY STUFF....YOU ARE STILL THE TSNAMI OF HORSERACE KNOWLEGE! GOOD THING YOU DONT BET! I HARDLY REMEMBER YOU BEING RIGHT ABOUT ANYTHING.....WHO ARE YOUR TOP 3?

re: Derby Dozen - April 4, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

datflippinrabbit — Sun, 10 Apr 2011 14:14:14 GMT

Uncle Mo the pamperd horse gets smoked.It will be interesting to see your dozen this week Steve.I wonder what you are going to do with Aurthur's Tale he ran a bang up race as well,if he can get in.Seems like the bloomers are coming too late and not enough earnings.

re: Derby Dozen - April 4, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Coldfacts — Sun, 10 Apr 2011 14:02:28 GMT

Ranagulzion

Coldfacts -“Sometimes your analysis is brilliant but at other times they are downright wild and crazy. I can think of a few examples but will spare you the embarrassment just now”

My response:

If it’s has not been exceedingly clear to you by now, I do not get embarrassed for my view points. I am by no means infallible. I am not afraid to be wrong. In a sport of glorious uncertainties one will probably be wrong more times than right. I am sure the contents of many of your posts are far more over the top than the measures ones that I have submitted.

If a vote should be taken on who should be more embarrassed for their positions you would win going away.

Below is an example of why you would win going away:

“Uncle Mo is looking good in the Wood, cantering home by 10 lengths and pulling a bus (unless Duca or "Norman" turns out to be something special, capable of finishing within 5 lengths of the champ). This is money for jam. A soup. A walk in the park. A cakewalk. An afternoon stroll. An armchair-ride for Johnny V. What mo can I tell you No Mo Mo”

BERNARDINI:

I know you must be sick in bed this morning as a Bernardini colt finished ahead of the once Mighty Mo. If Mr. Dominquez was any rider he would have won the Wood. A very poor ride!

Extract from a previous post:

It is absurd to stat that a particular freshman sire is incapable of siring a derby winner when there are at least three examples i.e., Street Sense, Mine That Bird and Seattle Slew. You are therefore being served with a cease and desist order.

WATCH ME GO/ANTHONY’S CROSS:

Your posts:

“I've posted enough about Watch Me Go's credentials and pedigree therefore I'll just let you observe his performance and watch you tip-toe your way around a post race analysis after the Illionois Derby”

“This weekend will show you that I'm right about Anthony's Cross and Watch Me Go. I don't expect AC to beat PrePeg but I wouldn't be surprised to see him pull off the upset. WMG is a cinch in the Illinois Derby”

My post:

Watch Me Go like Pleasant Prince his sire and dam were unraced. This pedigree combination is rare. Determine was the last and probably the only derby winner whose sire and dam were unraced. He does not have the speed figures to win the derby but will be a very historic participant.

Let me restate, any horse that has trouble defeating an 86-1 $16K claimer who excited his last race on turf is not a horse that I would get overly excited about. Musket Man won the TBD in 1:43.67 and went on to win the Illinois Derby. He defeated Join In the Dance who would eventual lead the derby field for the first 6F. Do you see the $16K claimer leading this derby field? Watch Me Go time in the TBD was 1:44.25 and no winner exciting with that time has won their next race in the last five years. Watch Me Go is a very soft favorite and one notto get excited about.

Anthony's Cross: His trainer is his greatest liability. His horses are very unreliable and rarely run good races consecutively. He is another that will be fried in the early pace. He won a race at CD in 1:47. No top class colt record those times.

Anthony’s Cross never runs two good races consecutively and therefore will not win. Watch Me Go defeated a $16000 claimer by a head. He is shipping to a new track and you expect him to win. I cannot see it happening.

You have a lot to learn and the Coldfacts will continue to assist.

re: Derby Dozen - April 4, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

JerseyBoy — Sun, 10 Apr 2011 12:10:49 GMT

Ranagulzion:

You wrote: "Obviously you enjoy tripe both for eating and reading"

Well, I do read your entries.

re: Derby Dozen - April 4, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

illum — Sun, 10 Apr 2011 11:06:24 GMT

Well I posted something a long time ago(for this venue anyway)that I visualized Mo tiring in mid stretch of the Wood and in the post I thought he wouldnt hit the board.In the world of 3yo thoroughbreds on the derby trail last years 2yo bullies many times dont dominate their competitors anymore as they turn 3,and the distances increase.Having said that, Mo is still eligible to come back and win the derby,but he will have to have everything go his way post postion draw(within the context of the race shape and the competitors posts)weather,trip etc.The derby futures bettors went too far in making him the favorite in two of the pools.I still think he is a good bet to finish 2nd in the derby futures,and now I will be able to cover that bet with less money than before,especially if the Factor wins the Arkansas Derby.If the Factor does not win, then the bettors will enjoy a betting pool on race day much like last year(super saver was 1st or 2nd choice at 7-1.

re: Derby Dozen - April 4, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Forbidden Apple — Sun, 10 Apr 2011 01:50:39 GMT

Redblackandsilks,

As a horse racing fan I can accept the bad with the good in this game. I completly agree that the industry needs to clean it self up and get rid of the lingering corruption. Take Patrick Biancone for instance, he was kicked out of France and Hong Kong. So what does he do, he comes to the U.S.A. and brings his cheating ways with him. Do you remember his horse Gorella? I just wonder how mmany steroids or cobra venom was pumping through her veins. Cobra venom?! This guy should have been banned for life and sentenced to prison for animal abuse!

ColdFacts,

The time of the FL Derby will be long forgotten when Dialed In wins the KY Derby. I know that you are a fan of Unbridled, he won his FL Derby in 1:52.

Maybe now we can finally stop hearing about the horse named Mo, he is above average at best.

re: Derby Dozen - April 4, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Coldfacts — Sat, 09 Apr 2011 13:49:15 GMT

Ranagulzion,

“Sometimes your analysis is brilliant but at other times they are downright wild and crazy”

You were way ahead with the above but got derailed later in you post.

“I can think of a few examples but will spare you the embarrassment just now”

If it’s has not been exceedingly clear to you by now, I do not get embarrassed for my view points. I am by no means infallible. I am not afraid to be wrong. In a sport of glorious uncertainties one will probably be wrong more times than right. There is nothing to be embarrassed about. I am sure the contents of many of your posts are far more over the top than the measures ones that I have submitted. If a vote should be taken on who should be more embarrassed for their positions would win going away.

“Come on Coldfacts give Dialed In his due.”

I call it as I see it. The only reason we are having this exchange is because the runner up swerved. Dialed In cannot close 15 lengths from behind and win the derby. He is not as devastating a closer as Street Sense, Motnarchos or Mine that Bird. Those horses moved fluently over ground. Dialed In has a laborious action and requires a strong pace upfront and leaders that are one pace in the last to win. The final 3/8th of the FL Derby is usually run in 38 and a bit. If Schakleford was able to close in 38 plus Dialed In would have had no chance. I am not overly impressed with his last race. The 2011 FL Derby was the slowest in the last five years. If this cold fact does not resonate with you I cannot help you.

“You should do so without knocking the acknowledge class horses like "Mo" and Dialed In. That's becoming a bad habit with you.”

I have never knocked Uncle Mo. I have knocked the hype. I do not know how many times I must restate this. Dialed In ran the slowest FL derby in the last five years and highlighting this is not knocking the colt.

re: Derby Dozen - April 4, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Coldfacts — Sat, 09 Apr 2011 12:30:05 GMT

Ranagulzion,

Did anyone predict that Birdstone would have become one of the most successful first crop sire at the TC level? No! I have merely compared THAS to Ferdinand. I am not focused on his sire Bernardini. Street Cry produced Street Sense, Street Boss and Zenyatta as a freshman sire. Who predicted that level of success? No one can accurately make predictions about unproven sires. A horse is evaluated based on merit. If you a stating that THAS does not have the ability to win the derby I can understand. However, it is absurd to stat that a particular freshman sire is incapable of siring a derby winner when there are at least three examples i.e., Street Sense, Mine That Bird and Seattle Slew. You are therefore being served with a cease and desist order.

re: Derby Dozen - April 4, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

ROBINM — Sat, 09 Apr 2011 00:50:26 GMT

It looks like we're going to have to "shuffle the cards" with Premier Pegasus and To Honor and Serve off the "trail". With PP and now Jaycito out of the SA Derby, that one has really lost it's luster. Thankfully, it sounds as though Jaycito is not off the trail, but he'll now have some catching up to do. Isn't the Lexington only 2 weeks before the Derby?

re: Derby Dozen - April 4, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Antman — Sat, 09 Apr 2011 00:42:36 GMT

TO Honor and Serve out of the Derby. Minor injury. Not a good week at all. There's one reason for the bad performance. More to come I am sure.

re: Derby Dozen - April 4, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Alex'sBigFan — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 22:39:53 GMT

Terrible news on PrePeg. I hope his surgery goes well today in California. We've lost off the trail now Tapizar, Rogue Romance, and now PrePeg due to injuries. This is so unfortunate, get well PrePeg. And kudos to "Speedy Bob" for erring on the side of caution with Jaycito's foot issue and waiting for the next race.

On a better note, there is a cute little video clip on NYRA's website with Uncle Mo and the young girl contest winner that met him yesterday. Very well done NYRA and Mike Repole. Mo looks adorble, just hanging out in the background in his stall, looks like he was more interested in the food than the visitors! Too cute. Go Mo in the Wood!

re: Derby Dozen - April 4, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

redandblacksilks — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 21:46:47 GMT

Coldfacts:

I agree. I left some things out of my post because they reflect negatively on the industry and I don't know if they'll post those sorts of comments.

I bred and owned thoroughbreds and cared for them myself. I got out after a dozen or so years because I saw far too many things done by trainers that were detrimental to the well-being of the horses. Steroids was just one of those things. And one of those race day medications is often used to cover the presence of "other" things that enhance performance.

I don't know how many people are aware of it, but race tracks have betting windows on the backside for the horsemen. Often the HBPA office at the tracks have a lounge with betting machines that are available only to horsemen.

Anyone who wants to know what is going on in a race should try to spend a few days standing by the final turn and listen to the jocks as they maneuver their horses for the stretch drive in each race. The truth is, there is a lot of larceny in horse racing and if the industry is to survive the various racing jurisdictions need to police those involved with racing much more closely and make the penalties much more severe. A jock who gets caught riding while under the influence of alcohol or drugs over and over again should face a lifetime suspension. A trainer whose horses test positive over and over or who is caught with needles in his barn should also be banned for life. It is unfair to the horses and to the betting public to allow these individuals to continually skirt the rules and line their pockets.

re: Derby Dozen - April 4, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Ranagulzion — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 21:43:34 GMT

JERSEY BOY,

The coments and arguments that this poster has made repeatedly are not insinuations. I've been "shooting fairly straight from the hip" about AP Indy's progeny record in the Triple Crown races and in the Kentucky Derby in particular. Everyone can examine the history of the past Triple Crown races and look at his progeny performances without all the apologetics and decide for themselves. Obviously you enjoy tripe both for eating and reading Bro.

re: Derby Dozen - April 4, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

JerseyBoy — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 12:57:38 GMT

This is about a story that will not die. It is the repeated insinuations about the A P Indy sire line.

The facts show that three of the last major preps ended as follows:

Florida Derby:

AP Indy is the paternal grandsire of the winner and third-place finisher.

Sunland Derby:

AP Indy is the sire of the runner-up.

Louisiana Derby:

AP Indy is the paternal grandsire of the winner and the runner-up.

Two sires I see being contrasted are Bernardini and Mineshaft.

Both are sons of AP Indy. Mineshaft is out of a mare by Mr Prospector. Bernardini is out of a mare by Quiet American, who is by Fappiano, who is by Mr Prospector.

Yet the insinuations persist.

The average winning distance of Bernardini was 9.08 furlongs. For Mineshaft it was 8.9 furlongs.

Neither raced as a 2yo. Bernardini won 6 of 8 starts as a 3yo. Mineshaft won 3 of 9 as a 3yo.

If a descendant of AP Indy fails to win a classic, it would be due to the fact that another horse won, not to some issue with the bloodline.

We can express opinions but the facts should be kept straight because though tripe might be good to eat it is never worth reading.

re: Derby Dozen - April 4, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Windy City — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 05:04:53 GMT

Linda in Tx - Happy belated B-Day! You share your b-day with my 2-year old son :-)