Derby Dozen - April 11, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

re: Derby Dozen - April 11, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

the fireman — Sat, 23 Apr 2011 03:21:39 GMT

my hot 6 are the following

dialed in

astrology

elite alex

the factor

premier pegasus

nehro

brethren

re: Derby Dozen - April 11, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Thelwell Pony — Sun, 17 Apr 2011 22:21:36 GMT

Hey Steve, are you feeling vindicated after the Arkansas Derby? Good call on keeping both Archarcharch and Nehro in the Dozen! I wonder what the margin of victory would have been with both carrying the same weight? Arch's stock just keeps going up, too!

Wonder if "bloodwork" will reveal a GI infection that prevented The Factor from performing? Bloodlines revealed that he can't go 9f. I'm just kidding around. I would have loved for him to have been a freak, but he ain't.

Was anyone else bored to tears by the Bluegrass Stakes? (I'll probably have to eat crow for saying that in a few weeks.)

re: Derby Dozen - April 11, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Slew — Sun, 17 Apr 2011 18:52:10 GMT

Just when I thought Archx3 was clear away from Alternation's antics, his next door neighbor, Dance City kicks up a fuss. The only thing I could think was "don't kick Archx3". I thought Archx3 did just fine in the Rebel. His legs were cut up, and he really got a nasty kick to his flank. You wouldn't catch me trying to run after a hit like that. (limp...yes; run...no) At last..he proved his mettle in in the AR Derby, and I was so proud of him. And I'm positively thrilled for Jon Court, who WON'T lose his Derby mount this year, since Jinx is his father-in-law.

I think Nehro is our Belmont winner; he looked as though he could run all day.

The picture seems to be clearing. I like Dialed In, Pants On Fire, Archarcharch, Nehro, Midnight Interlude, Toby's Corner, MMM and I'll give Uncle Mo and The Factor a pass for one bad race. I don't think Dance City has the earnings for the Derby, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the Preakness. He was running up front most of the way, and still finished in the money.

Of course, we witnessed nothing but upsets since the Derby preps began, so...what's there to say the Ky Derby will be any different?

re: Derby Dozen - April 11, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Mcguane — Sun, 17 Apr 2011 17:01:57 GMT

Oh and my pick for the Kentucky Derby:

1 - Toby's Corner

2 - Mucho Macho Man

3 - Dialed In

re: Derby Dozen - April 11, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Mcguane — Sun, 17 Apr 2011 16:59:27 GMT

Xavier

I said it before the Wood. See my previous post prior to the race calling the finish as:

1- Toby

2- Norman A

3- Uncle M

OK...I had my 2nd and 4th place finishers switched but not bad.

And I'll say it again Toby's Corner is a better Classic Horse (read Kentucky Derby) than Uncle MO.

And why does it have to be about hate?

I think Mo is a excellent horse, but he's a miler and won't go the classic distances, nothing wrong with that.

Toby was a late foal and is still maturing and improving colt, as he fills in and muscles up the longer the distance he gets the better he's going to be.

Uncle M's connections can make all the excuses they want(does anyone know what a GI infection is, because it is a very unspecific diagonsis) but the fact is he got beat running a perfect trip While Toby's Corner got blocked twice early and completly cut off by Norman A in the streach and still won.

I'll be at the Derby to watch a great race with alot of fine horses and as a horse fan I hope they all come home safe. Will Toby win ? I don't know beacause with 20 horses out there it's a demolition deby as much as a horse race, but I will have my money on Toby to win just like I did in the Wood.

re: Derby Dozen - April 11, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

joe p. — Sun, 17 Apr 2011 15:53:43 GMT

Steve: Getting down to the final furlong of the Derby Dozen with all of the Major preps over now. Here's my top 10 leading up to the first Saturday in May. 1. Dialed In- Has a win over the track at Churchill. Fires every time. Will relish the distance. Should be around 4-1, the one to beat. 2. Uncle Mo - Loves the track at CD, was runaway winner in BC Juvenil Race in 2010. Should be 100% for the KY Derby, should see the real Uncle Mo. 3. Master of Hounds - Will Get the distance, has tactical speed, hopefully he will run, will be at a big price, could pull the upset. 4. Mucho Macho Man - Healthy again, should like the distance, well rested. 5. Nehro - strong closer like dialed in, 3 weeks rest does concern me though. 6. Archarcharch - Contender after winning the AK derby, 3 weeks rest a concern. 7. Midnite Interlude - Nice win in SA Derby, didn't race at 2, a concern. 8. Toby's Corner - Beat an improving Arthur's Tail and a stomach sick Uncle Mo in Wood Memorial. 9. Shackelford - has a win over CD track, could hit the board. 10. Pants on Fire - LA Derby winner could hit the board. PP will be the key for all of these horses. Good luck to all.

re: Derby Dozen - April 11, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

JJ Lucky Train — Sun, 17 Apr 2011 11:10:34 GMT

I think Uncle Mo will scratch from the Derby between now and Derby day, has he has respiratory problems and not GI problems, or that he grabbed a quarter. I still like JJ Lucky Train and Pants on Fire, Nehro, and Shakleford

re: Derby Dozen - April 11, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

WendyO — Sat, 16 Apr 2011 23:36:41 GMT

You know, upsets may abound, they may be trading victories and physical issues, and I know people are calling this a weak crop. But I found myself rooting for a good half or more of the Arkansas Derby field, cheering on ArchArchArch, and feeling breathlessly delighted at Nehro's closing dash. They may not be an exceedingly fast (at a distance) or consistent crop, but they're keeping it interesting and there's something lovable about this year's group.

re: Derby Dozen - April 11, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Oldie — Sat, 16 Apr 2011 14:48:09 GMT

Alex'sBigFan, this has been the case for some time now. As someone who only sees TVG I have missed many Derby preps live, getting instead to watch a man in headphones announce the race and then see the replay later. Additionally they do a terrible job of informing the viewer who switches back and forth between horse racing, car racing and baseball what the schedule is, at least in my opinion. But that's just me :) If I recall correctly, each one has separate contracts with tracks and races and competes to televise them live.

re: Derby Dozen - April 11, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Lisa g — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 19:43:46 GMT

Uncle Mo

Arthur's Tale

Dialed In

Midnight Interlude

Mucho Macho Man

The Factor

Elite Alex

Toby's Corner

Jaycito

Archarcharch

Nehro

Stay Away

Santiva

Hopefully:

Uncle MO

Alternation

Shackleford

re: Derby Dozen - April 11, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Dr Drunkinbum — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 13:52:51 GMT

If my calculations are correct then Archarcharch is only 12 letters so there is plenty of room to name his son Archarcharcharch, and for Archarcharcharch's son to be named ArcharcharcharchJr.

re: Derby Dozen - April 11, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Xavier — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 01:54:50 GMT

Can everybody with any honesty say that Toby's Corner is a better horse than Uncle Mo? The competition didn't beat Uncle Mo, Uncle Mo beat himself. One subpar out of character performance does not override what he did in his 4 previous races.

The good thing is, he had his bad race in the Wood Memorial and not the kentucky Derby.

re: Derby Dozen - April 11, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Alex'sBigFan — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 01:45:41 GMT

Now that I'm on a roll here, I have a question that maybe someone can answer. HRTV is covering the Arkansas Derby, and TVG is covering the Toyota Blue Grass, yet the following week they BOTH are honing in on the Jerome Handicap at Aqueduct. WHAT??? Let's completely forget the fact that NBC should be covering all the major Derby preps since they are covering the entire Triple Crown now. But, at any rate, this means that we TVG viewers will see the Arkansas Derby on tape replay only, not live and not the loading or post parade. This is ridiculous, wouldn't you think that the bettors watching TVG want to see the horses minutes before placing their bets, not to mention just fans wanting to watch the race live? I for one don't get it unless they are in monetary advertising competition wars as well (TVG&HRTV)??? They both surely must have enough cameramen to cover both major events. Why are they both covering the Jerome H., a race of less relativity to the Derby? I'm baffled by this type of coverage, or lack thereof, so can anyone explain? I feel that both TVG and HRTV should cover both races from the minute the horses start the walkover until the end of the race, not one of the channels just devoting a few seconds to play the replay. I would assume that not every racing betting fan and racing enthusiast has both HRTV and TVG combined. The way they have the coverage set up for this weekend I am assuming that TVG viewers cannot see the Arkansas Derby until after the fact and vice versa for HRTV viewers who cannot see the Toyota until after the fact because TVG has it. Horseracing tv coverage is dismal at best and now we need the only two stations we have in some competition at our viewing expense?

re: Derby Dozen - April 11, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Xavier — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 01:35:04 GMT

To all the Uncle Mo haters, if you are bold enough to come on here after the derby start writing your concession now. You might save some face.

re: Derby Dozen - April 11, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Alex'sBigFan — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 00:52:44 GMT

Forgot to add this line in my post above. That tells me something more about Mo as well, that despite his maybe having some stomach discomfort he still aimed to please and his professionalism prevailed. I had said his third was respectable, now it is even more respectable knowing what we do now about the intestinal problem.

re: Derby Dozen - April 11, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

redandblacksilks — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 00:01:02 GMT

Generally a horse with an infection that is as widespread as one in the G.I. tract will present a fever. Can't imagine they didn't know he had an abnormal temperature.

re: Derby Dozen - April 11, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Alex'sBigFan — Thu, 14 Apr 2011 21:44:19 GMT

Well, there we have the answer to the Wood outcome, Mo has a gastrointestinal infection. That explains his reluctance to load and telling us by the body language that he was not up to par for the run that day, plain and simple. Hopefully he will be ok in a short period of time and on track for the Derby. I loved how Mike Repole et al got the vets on it asap and proceeded with investigating a medical cause. I knew something was off and drained Mo, I thought the flight and maybe dehydration but it is now clarified as the infection. Mo I am sure is getting the best care.

Soldat is fine, he is in Palm Meadows, healthy and happy reported by an owner on Kiaran's Racing website. Soldat will have 3 works then ship to Churchill.

Here's hoping they all stay well and healthy for a long time.

re: Derby Dozen - April 11, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Footlick — Thu, 14 Apr 2011 18:08:27 GMT

I'm glad that they found something wrong with Uncle Mo and can treat it and get him well.

re: Derby Dozen - April 11, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Zenyatta John — Thu, 14 Apr 2011 18:05:57 GMT

Draynay -

Give it a rest. If you rode Uncle Mo with a 'buzzer' like Billy Patton, he still wouldn't win the Derby.

Uncle Mo just didn't make the leap from two to three , you just have to face facts. Now that they have their excuse with the GI infection, Mo probably won't even make the Derby.

re: Derby Dozen - April 11, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

JerseyBoy — Thu, 14 Apr 2011 17:41:46 GMT

Sorry to see Uncle Mo has an infection. I hope it clears up in time and that he does run in the Ky Derby because his participation will help to raise the odds on the others.

re: Derby Dozen - April 11, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

duchess — Thu, 14 Apr 2011 03:32:09 GMT

At the moment I do not have a Derby horse anymore. PrePeg was my Derby horse and Jaycito was my Belmont horse. PrePeg is out, and we will have to wait to see how Jaycito comes out of his injury.

I will be watching the AD very closely. Lots of promising colts in that race. (Though I thought that about the FD going in, too, and lots of the well regarded colts ran flatly). I have the feeling my Derby colt might be coming out of that race...

Personal Ensign, Miesque, and Urban Sea all say that some great race mares become world class broodies!

Mr. Haskin, I just want to thank you for running this blog. I look forward to reading it every Monday leading up to the Derby.

re: Derby Dozen - April 11, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Antman — Thu, 14 Apr 2011 02:14:36 GMT

Zookeeper

I most defiantely will admit I was wrong if I am wrong. If he gets looked in the eye early with pressure and draws off and wins, I will be the first to admit I was wrong. I honestly want him to have an uncontested lead like last time and romp. Because in the Derby he will be contested. He will be hammered on Derby day if he wins again with no pressure. Maybe he is just a freak! Should be a great race no matter who you are rooting for in my opinion.

My top 5

Dialed In

MMM

Soldat

AAA

AD winner is AAA

Bluegrass winner is Crimson China.

I think after Saturday this list is going to look alot different. This seems to be a year that has a lot of questions.

re: Derby Dozen - April 11, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Oldie — Thu, 14 Apr 2011 02:01:43 GMT

GunBow, there's a nice write up on Midnight Interlude's lineage that came out this evening on BH, and there's more stamina than I was aware of. Very intriguing.

re: Derby Dozen - April 11, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Point Given — Thu, 14 Apr 2011 01:55:26 GMT

I am riding Baffert's Trio (TF,MI & JAYC)all the way. Reminded me of Baffert's former classic winners with the Speed(War Emblem),the Mid Pack closer(Real Quiet)and the best closer in the game(Point Given).

re: Derby Dozen - April 11, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Old Timer — Thu, 14 Apr 2011 00:59:18 GMT

Draynay, will you let up on the comparisons to Secretariat? If Mo wins the Belmont by 31 lengths, then I'll apologize, but for now comparing Mo, who faded after a 48 half and Secretariat, who ran the Gotham mile in 1:33 & change is LUDICROUS.