Derby Dozen - April 18, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

re: Derby Dozen - April 18, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

datflippinrabbit — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 18:35:42 GMT

With a derby like this you just have to bet under the radar horses and that horse to me is Pants on Fire he won the La Derby guess who was second and if Rosie gets the mount back he'll be even further ignored,i just have a gut feeling about this horse.Also i like Soldat to be in the frame, if it comes up wet he'll be too short a price.

re: Derby Dozen - April 18, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

russell — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 13:32:50 GMT

I feel bad refering to the last 2 derby winners as bumbs.That was wrong.Hey,you win the derby you earn respect.And wouldn't any owner and trainer be thrilled winning it.But neither had the true champion profile.Year after year you read various rules on picking derby contenders.No winner ever did this or that,must have done such & such prior to the derby.I just don't buy it anymore.Only one rule applies and thats blossoming at the right time.High spd.rtgs.may dazzle you but all too often too much, too soon is a danger.I try to find those that appear ready to run there best.I do look at breeding but take dossage index with a grain of salt.Nehro is over 4.00 (4.33).Yet no one who has seriously looked at this horse would throw him out.I prefer the dosage profile (chef-de-race.com).He has what it takes for the distance when you look at that.As well,his fastest 1/8th was at the end running it in 12 1/5th.No way you throw this one out because his D.I. is over 4.I think the breed is not as strong as it used to be.Maybe too much interbreeding.I don't really know.But things have changed.Establish the fact that your picks are likely to go the distance (that leaves out Uncle Mo,if in fact he goes).Than pick those who are improving at the right time and are comming out of a reasonably fast race.At least a par pace and final time.Forget the rest of the profile rules.This year is going to be tough enough without adding all the mumbo jumbo.I like any horse who runs all 12ths in a very fast race with a solid pace.Than runs a 6f work afterwards around 1:10 sugesting he came out of the race O.K. Thats Midnight Interlude.But your not supposed to play a horse like him in the derby.I'll add Brilliant Speed (fantastic dosage profile) and take my chances. Good luck to all.

re: Derby Dozen - April 18, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Andy Adinolfi — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 01:54:32 GMT

Mucho Macho Man is working gangbusters, but Macho Uno on the top is a concern to me. And, I think that it's fair to question whether or not his lackluster final 1/8 in the LA Derby was truly because he threw a shoe.

Baffert has been pressing all the right buttons for months, and I like Midnight Interlude in the Derby at a price...

re: Derby Dozen - April 18, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Deltalady — Sun, 24 Apr 2011 21:04:42 GMT

From a "newbie" standpoint, this is my first year to follow the Derby Preps all the way from Day 1. I'm green as they come, but, as they say, I know what I like! I've watched every race, most several times, read everything Steve has to say and a few others. I landed on Dialed In as my #1 pick the very first time I saw him, which was the Holy Bull, and then went back and watched his maiden, and fell madly in love! "Here comes Dialed In down from the clouds!" and "How did Dialed In win?" He did everything wrong in that race and still won it. The announcer nearly didn't even see him until he had appeared from nowhere! He's a closer, what can I say, and that shadow roll, well, you know, I do have Zenyatta withdrawal!! I know I'm not supposed to judge horses that way....but, hey, since I'm so new, give me a break. Then, I came across Mucho Macho Man, and he became my #2 fave. Loved his connections, including his gutsy trainer, like his unusual ownership model, and Mucho himself for several reasons: he's huge, he won't be 3 until June, so he's still improving and growing!!

So, pretty much since Feb-Mar I had my favorites set. Then, along came Nehro tearing up the field breathing down the necks of the winners, looking like all he needed was a longer race and he's my number 3. I did do more research and read about each horse's pedigree, and still see no reason to adjust my picks.

What has been really crazy is that the so-called experts, those guys who put out each week's odds and who's gonna win, and they do their shows picking the winners, then each week they wound up wrong, wrong, wrong! From what I have read and can gather, this year's Derby prep season has been out of the ordinary and that nothing seems to have gone the way it should. But, for me anyway, it has been interesting, I've learned a lot, have fallen in love with the sport, warts and all, and can't wait to see the Derby and hope a miracle will happen and we see a Triple Crown winner this year (not likely, I know). I did have the privilege of seeing the filly, Genuine Risk, win the Derby in 1980 from the finish line (relatives are nice!), but this year, I will know a lot more going into the race and, yes, I plan to make a small wager, just to be "legit"! Steve's blog is about the only one where I learn nearly as much from those who comment as from Steve! Steve, you attract a nice crowd and I really look forward to all your columns. Loved the John Henry movie! Just super. Good luck, all!

re: Derby Dozen - April 18, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Johnny — Sun, 24 Apr 2011 18:56:55 GMT

Steve my previous post please do with it as you please..

I do not want to be accused of stealing content..

Ty Johnny

P.S.

I did not post it on any other blog out of respect towards you..

re: Derby Dozen - April 18, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

KY VET — Sun, 24 Apr 2011 01:45:57 GMT

Whats up with the factor? HE IS A SPRINTER!! they won't run him!

re: Derby Dozen - April 18, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

SmoothJazz — Sat, 23 Apr 2011 23:22:54 GMT

According to a DRF.com article, Shaun Bridgmohan will be on Santiva for the Kentucky Derby. Bridgmohan was the Jockey when Santiva won a Graded Stakes race at Churchill Downs. The fact that Santiva has already shown that he races well at Churchill is a very key aspect, and getting Bridgmohan back on as the Jockey is a wise move.

Additionally, according to the DRF.com article, Santiva will likely be working twice before the Kentucky Derby.

They didn't have Santiva cranked real tight for the Risen Star in February coming off of a 3 month layoff. Despite not being cranked real tight, he finished 2nd on the dirt in Louisiana in the Risen Star. He then had a nearly 2 month layoff, and they used last Saturday's Blue Grass Stakes as a conditioning race in order to get in some conditioning off of the nearly 2 month layoff. He worked at Palm Meadows the Saturday before the Blue Grass, then had the Blue Grass race for conditioning purpases, and then he will likely be working twice at Churchill. It is evident that Santiva will be cranked real tight for a full bore effort on Kentucky Derby Day back on the track where he has previously won, and back with the Jockey that was on him during that Graded Stakes win at Churchill.

re: Derby Dozen - April 18, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

El Kabong — Sat, 23 Apr 2011 12:03:44 GMT

Katherine,

That's a great time for that surface. It's deep. I like the idea that Kiaran thinks he's sharp enough to skip a work. That is the best news out of this workout. Hopefully Steve will confirm his look at Churchill.

re: Derby Dozen - April 18, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Katherine — Sat, 23 Apr 2011 07:11:31 GMT

Alex'sBigFan -

I watched the video of the Dubai race and while I liked Master of Hounds that filly took my breath away. I think she is really special.

Master of Hounds has a great pedigree, trainer and connections but I am not crazy about his conformation on the forehand. I think he carries his head too high and his neck set does not flow. That puts me off a little bit. Be that as it may, he does have a good record. I suppose we will find out how he goes pretty soon.

re: Derby Dozen - April 18, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Danny from UK — Sat, 23 Apr 2011 01:07:59 GMT

@OLDIE

Yes they do actually. None of our tracks here are the same. There are clockwise and anti clockwise cicuits here, and lots of very undulating tracks (uphill and downhill). Newmarket even has an 11 furlong straight!

Epsom is one of the more eccentric tracks on our calender. The highest point on the track is a good 30ft higher than the start line, and the whole course is a horse shoe shape. Tattenham corner is very sharp and catches lots of horses out.

It is more obvious in National Hunt racing (Steeplechasing/Hurdles) but some horses show a clear preference for going either clockwise or anti-clockwise, and may jump to one side. When studying U.K or Irish form it is particularly important to remember that 3 miles around a flat track like Kempton, will play to the strength's of certain horses, but 3 miles around a grueling track like Exeter, up big, big hills and back down again, will favour a more stamina laden horse.

re: Derby Dozen - April 18, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

zarvona — Sat, 23 Apr 2011 00:59:54 GMT

..."Those near or just below the bubble will be keenly watching developments with horses such as ... The Factor, who are currently in the top 20 and have yet to be officially ruled out of the race, though ... [[he,'The Factor']] is [[not]]expected to run." Jay Privman DRF

"Not expected to run"?? OK, What is the storyline here? WHAT is the nature of the storyline here? WHAT specifically is the injury? What can a horse VETRENATIAN tell us about such an injury? WHAT are BAFFERT's concerns and THOUGHTS? WHY are we now nearly a week after hte Arkansas Derby still getting NO clear explanations???

WHAT IS UP HERE??? DO we out here in the public get a better explanation ?? an undate ?? some comment from "The Factor" camp?? some comment from the TRAINER ?? WHY are we still being left out in the dark with no press release ?? SOMEONE PLEASE OFFER US SOME EXPLANATION !! PLEASE

re: Derby Dozen - April 18, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

JerseyBoy — Fri, 22 Apr 2011 16:12:01 GMT

Antman:

Now that I can see the result of my entry, I have to say I was wrong. It did not work.

re: Derby Dozen - April 18, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

TerriV — Fri, 22 Apr 2011 15:56:00 GMT

Alex'sBigFan, you've gone to the dogs. :)

re: Derby Dozen - April 18, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

JIMBO3468 — Fri, 22 Apr 2011 15:25:52 GMT

If Master of Hounds and Animal Kingdom work fine at Churchill,,watch out..they boys are bred to run ALL DAY !

re: Derby Dozen - April 18, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

JerseyBoy — Fri, 22 Apr 2011 13:01:38 GMT

Antman:

Your idea seems to have worked. I had previously performed-Delete Browsing History.

The problem has disappeared. Now I am stuck with another problem. The horse I like is not even on the list.

re: Derby Dozen - April 18, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Coldfacts — Fri, 22 Apr 2011 05:34:06 GMT

Steve,

It appears Dialed In retained his #1 ranking because of the results of the last set of preps. Is he worthy of the #1 ranking? Well, the cold facts below should provide the answers:

If he deserved the #1 raking his race record should tower over all others. He won his last in the Gl FL Derby. There is another colt t that also won his last in the Gl SA Derby. I thought it would be interesting to compare their records their records: .

Both colts have made 4 starts. Dialed In won his first two starts and MI lost his. Dialed In won his maiden race by 2-3 lengths and MI won by 8 lengths pulling a bus. Dialed In won his graded staked debut in the 8F Gll Holy Bull and Midnight Interlude won his in the Gl SA Derby at 9F. Dialed In lost his first attempt at 9F in a slowly run (1:51) allowance races. Midnight Interlude won his first attempt at the distance in a G1 race in 1:48.66. While Dialed In struggled to defeat a winner of a NW2 allowance race in the FL Derby, Midnight Interlude out dueled a G1 & Glll winner who won six of his 13 starts. Dialed In last reported work was a breeze in 49 4/5. MI last reported worked was 59 and a bit handily.

The above is just one comparison and It appears Midnight Interlude is a better colt than Dialed In. No rout race was specifically written for MI. He was given a brutal baptism in a GI 9F race off a maiden victory and rose to the occasion. Dialed In was given a much simpler task and failed to deliver. Dialed In two starts at 9Fdo not equate to the one made by Midnight Interlude.

It is therefore clear from the simple comparison above that Dialed In is not worthy to be ranked above Midnight Interlude and consequently falsely occupied the #1 spot. Does MI deserve the #1 ranking? His SA Derby performance was only bettered by that of Premier Pegasus in the San Felipe and by virtue of this he deserves to be ranked ahead of Dialed In. I have never been high on Dialed In and I cannot understand why he is held I such high esteem. Is he really as good as he is being made to be? I think not.

re: Derby Dozen - April 18, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Alex'sBigFan — Fri, 22 Apr 2011 04:15:28 GMT

Katherine,

So far so good. They changed from an originally planned 3 works to 2. Wish we could see it on video, guess we have to wait for the Churchill works to be shown on tv and the net.

I was looking up info on Master of Hounds. Purchase price is a mystery, was a private purchase. Got Lasix first time here in US at the BC. Beaten by a filly in Dubai on their surface, would have to be a superhorse to immediately transform to a dirt win. Gee I don't know, he fits the RAN line theory of Coldfacts though. His sire sired Lemon Drop Kid who did a successful dirt transition.

He is in Ireland now and would ship directly into Churchill the week of the Derby, does not have to go to Keeneland quarantine. Looks eerily like George Washington with the same white markings down his face, same trainer too, different pedigrees.

I just don't know, the Dubai bounce, dirt a question, love the pedigree though and was in the money most of his career???????

re: Derby Dozen - April 18, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Coldfacts — Fri, 22 Apr 2011 04:13:37 GMT

illum,

The Bluegrass Stakes. The slow Santiva was made favorite and after him it was up for grabs.

re: Derby Dozen - April 18, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

zarvona — Fri, 22 Apr 2011 04:05:40 GMT

P.P.S.: And, if anyone really cares about who someone elses is playing or how or in what fashion, like DRAYNAY telling us who he intends to BOX 'so & so', and etc., I stated several years ago that I like to take about 4-5 horses into Derby Day on that race that I eventually consider how I am going to play them when the time comes and the odds are up and I know the post positions & etc., well for whoever cares otehr than me (and I can't really imagine why anyone would as I am no handicapper or brillant horse player and losing gambler over the years , though i have had a few payoff days...) MY short list for consideration at this point is the following:

alpahbetical order here take no inference from it btw:

"Archarcharch" ; "Dialed In" ;

all horses whose name start w/an "M" ; "Nehro" ; & "Pants on Fire" ;...AND MAYBE "THE FACTOR" when some ***** Reporter gets off his ass and tells me what the hell the true storyline is there!!! GOOD LUCK ALL

re: Derby Dozen - April 18, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

zarvona — Fri, 22 Apr 2011 03:58:42 GMT

W O W ...

THE FACTOR dropped from Watchmaker's TOP TWENTY on DRF ...

ARE we ever going to get any information RE this injury from BAFFERT or anyone else ??? AGAIN, is it correctible?? can it reoccur if he runs again ??

WE need some solid reporting and ANSWERS ! Please ... Geeze a week after the fact and all we get is he shipped to Churchill? How does that help anyone assess his playability and his suppose only chance being to wire the field??? ...and Steve... you have the horse in your Dozen so where is the info??? "Inquiring Minds would like to KNOW!!"

And please, again, if possible can you reproduce DRF's Tomlinson Numbers for us on the supposed top 20 or at least or your posted top 12 or can you NOT reproduce such ??

AND... p.s. "WAR CHANT" ("Midnight Interlude") the 1/2 brother of "WAR FRONT" ("The Factor" & "Soldat" (with both

2 X bred w/the 'BHXFG' makes them relatively interchangable re my last post... Although also note, "Danzig" did produce a few that have made the distance of

1 1/8 where a 1 1/4 might be possible , but then again so has the A.P. Indy's... Less historical data on "WAR FRONT" and/or "WAR CHANT" , but the reference re the owners looking for MILERS was directed re "WAR FRONT" and "The FACTOR".

re: Derby Dozen - April 18, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Footlick — Fri, 22 Apr 2011 03:32:30 GMT

Billy- that filly on that day could beat any 3 yr old here. There was no shame in him losing to her. Too bad none of our three year olds were there to get demolished. Master of Hounds has already run a race the same distance as the Preakness. And he had a rough trip in the BCJ Turf. Of course he has dirt issues, but he has class, and that filly in Dubai was brilliant. Sahkee had dirt issues too in his breeding and he finished where in the BCC? Not all turf horses will flounder on dirt. I worry that Sadler's Wells has not been a great transfer to dirt, so I do worry about the dirt as a surface for him, but certainly not about the distance and Kingmambo is not a negative dirt wise. I would at least have him on a ticket or would just put a save bet on him. We will have to see how he trains. But to just trash a horse like that isn't really like you.

re: Derby Dozen - April 18, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Antman — Fri, 22 Apr 2011 03:11:16 GMT

Old Friends

Recieved a nice letter from them today. Micheal must be one hell've person doing what he is doing and I proudly will donate again. Thanks for what you do Micheal. Your top notch in my book.

Don't believe we will get any big prices in the preps this weekend. Short fields and the favorites look the part. Keenland will be the play this weekend. Have a horse that will by my play Race 4 Zapparition. 5/1 ML Big field hope the price holds 50 W/P Anyone else with some plays. Will be in Vegas 1st thru the 5th. I wonder if any futures at the sports book will be better than in the derby. Guess On Wednesday I will see who is in. Should be interesting.

re: Derby Dozen - April 18, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Katherine — Fri, 22 Apr 2011 01:50:03 GMT

El Kabong, Alex'sBigFan, what did you think of Soldat's work today?

re: Derby Dozen - April 18, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Hot Coal Guy — Fri, 22 Apr 2011 01:27:47 GMT

Archarcharch - like his running style a bit better for the Derby than Dialed In, may have slight edge for the distance as well

Dialed In - virtual dead heat for the top spot, running style may be somewhat a disadvantage also, Derby distance might be a little bit of a stretch

Nehro - certainly seems capable, could be getting better in a timely fashion, dangerous

Mucho Macho Man - tries hard every time, been a tough character thus far, what's not to like

Master Of Hounds - all around classy sort, we'll see how he trains

Animal Kingdom - liked this one's score last out, light on seasoning and experience but could exceed expectations once again

Toby's Corner - may be a stretch getting the distance, though he's so professional when he takes care of business he's hard to ignore

Midnight Interlude - took care of business in fine fashion

Uncle Mo - needed to make hay and didn't, start questionable as well

Pants On Fire - no liars here

Soldat - just maybe he's much better than indicated last run, could finish in the thick of things

Prime Cut - there's got to be at least one more surprise this season right, has the looks of a sort that could accomplish much more

Santiva was a disappointing in the Blue Grass. I expected at least a top three finish. I think his lack of fitness for the Derby is going to keep him a notch or two below his capabilities.

Alternation got off a bit slow. He's still learning and I think that we're going to see lots of exciting things from him.

Elite Alex and Arthur's Tale are horses to watch for the Belmont.

Thanks Steve! I want you to know, that I enjoy your columns here every week. I like reading though yours and everyone's comments. Even when/if our perspectives don't always "jive".

Lots of oddities this year...could be a few more surprises yet!

re: Derby Dozen - April 18, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

ROBINM — Fri, 22 Apr 2011 01:07:08 GMT

Indian Charlie was 3rd in his Derby; a daughter, Fleet Indian won at 1-1/4, and I think other good ones have won over a distance of ground. It's not fair to say he is just a "sprint" sire.

There have been several Derby winners in recent years that weren't supposed to be able to get 1-1/4. If "Mo" flops, it will be his lack of conditioning, not his breeding.