Derby Dozen - April 26, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

re: Derby Dozen - April 26, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

dalton — Fri, 06 May 2011 17:18:12 GMT

The GRID still has Arch ranked #1 followed by Soldat and Dialed In.

re: Derby Dozen - April 26, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Slew — Thu, 05 May 2011 12:35:09 GMT

Who wudda thunk? With all the defections, the cut off in earnings is barely $100,000. I originally had it pegged around $240K.

re: Derby Dozen - April 26, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

billfromwa — Tue, 03 May 2011 18:24:47 GMT

If Animal Kingdom adjusts favorably to the track, I think he could be a strong player. His pedigree screams distance, and he is just starting to learn the game. I think he will be a factor, and I'm taking a shot here.

Bill

re: Derby Dozen - April 26, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

JayJay — Mon, 02 May 2011 21:15:45 GMT

Steve : Is this your final dozen ? Are you going to re-evaluate after the posts are drawn ? I've been reading up on your "workout" reports and frankly, I'm getting more and more confused as to who I'll play with Dialed In. I'm sticking to DI regardless of the workout reports, I just need help on who to play with him for the superfecta :) The surprise for me is how well a lot of horses are working out on the slop, something I didn't really think about before. I thought Soldat was solid if the track comes up sloppy but now,I'm not so sure.

re: Derby Dozen - April 26, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Splits of 12 — Sun, 01 May 2011 03:06:38 GMT

Steve,

I like that you kept Uncle Mo on top. He's still owns the best Speed Figure of the bunch a 108 and earned it at Churchill Downs. If it's a sunny day and the track is like it was BC day, it wouldn't shock me if he won. But my heart tells me that Mucho Macho Man is going to win the Derby. His story is incredible. I think he's the toughest horse of the bunch and will have first run to the wire after the turn. If he runs like he did in the Risen Star, at 17+ hands,he'll be tough to catch. Mucho is blossoming at the right time. Being such a late foal , I believe the six weeks off between his last race and the Derby has given him time to grow into his large frame and will work in his favor as opposed to a horse who may have been foaled earlier in the year. He is the feel good story of the year and something tells me we are going to be talking about him as the next TC winner right before the Belmont takes place.

re: Derby Dozen - April 26, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

PB — Sat, 30 Apr 2011 15:08:53 GMT

everybody better get back on board with Soldat and Santiva. ive got the tri all figured out. Soldat on top with Santiva, Uncle Mo, Nehro, and AAA. Write this down. $100 tri-box will bring back a HEFTY payout. Get your pen out you will have to sign on this one

re: Derby Dozen - April 26, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Stones — Sat, 30 Apr 2011 15:05:02 GMT

Ooooooo baby, I like what I'm hearing about Archarcharch's works!!!

re: Derby Dozen - April 26, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

PB — Sat, 30 Apr 2011 14:55:40 GMT

no love for Derby Kitten?????

re: Derby Dozen - April 26, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

GaryB — Fri, 29 Apr 2011 21:19:31 GMT

Steve I've refined my dozen to this for my final list heading into Derby week.

1. Archarcharch- best turn of foot will let him have a great chance.

2. Uncle Mo - Most talent. 1 1/8 and if fit is only question.

3. Mucho Macho Man- I predicted him to be a late bloomer and is training real well. Hunch best effort available here.

4. Dialed In- Worries me in coming from way back.

5. Toby's Corner- Always performs well and will here.

6. Nehro- hunch peaked early.

7. Animal Kingdom- Is dirt a problem? I like how strong his stride is.

------------------------------------

drop off here for me

8. Midnight Interlude

9. Soldat

10 Master of Hounds

11. Brilliant speed

12 Twice the Appeal (Borel) Just in case the Borel magic is real I can say I had him in my dozen.

re: Derby Dozen - April 26, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

KY VET — Fri, 29 Apr 2011 19:56:17 GMT

PEOPLE! WHY SAY UNCLE MO HASN'T DONE ANYTHING? LEARN THE GAME...FIRST MISTAKE YOURE MAKING IS THAT MO IS OUT OF SHAPE...THESE GRADE 1 HORSES DON'T RUN UNTIL THEY ARE READY! WHY? BECAUSE IT IS GOOD FOR THE ANIMAL...WE ARE NOT TALKING CLAIMERS.....2ND..IT'S FUNNY, YOU SAY HE HAS DONE NOTHING, BUT HIS 1ST RACE BACK WAS JUST A LENGTH OR 2 SLOWER THAN THESE HORSES THAT FIRED THEIR BEST! WHAT ARE YOU PEOPLE LOOKING AT? DID HE LOOK LIKE HE WAS ALL OUT? NO! SO HOW FAST COULD HE HAVE GONE? AT LEAST 5 LENGTHS? HE JOGGED...THEN IN WOOD HE RELAXED, JOCK HAD HOLD...THEN CAME UP EMPTY...SOMETHING WRONG HUH? EVEN SO, HE RAN 2 OR 3 LENGTHS SLOWER THAN THESE OTHER HORSES BEST? LOL! ...HE'S DONE NOTHING? WORKS DON'T REALLY MEAN MUCH..BUT HE OUT WORKED HORSE THAT RAN 107 BEYER...OLDER HORSE...NOTHING? ...NO CHANCE? REALLY?

re: Derby Dozen - April 26, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Householder — Fri, 29 Apr 2011 18:30:03 GMT

Baffert: What does he have? MI unraced as a 2 year old, breaks his maiden in March, wins the SA Derby, comes back to post a 59.20 work at Santa Anita and a six furlong bullet work at CD (1:13.60). Could be some of the new age "Pletcher" mentallity about saving a horse for the Triple Crown. He's certainly lightly raced and the two bullet works ala Baffert after the Santa Anita Derby suggest he has a lot in the tank after that Grade 1 win. He's interesting and initially looked to be a "toss." But it is Baffert...

re: Derby Dozen - April 26, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Stones — Fri, 29 Apr 2011 13:43:13 GMT

Taking a closer look at Shackleford; still on the fence with Mo; need more info on Decisive Moment (whom nobody is talking about).

re: Derby Dozen - April 26, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Coldfacts — Fri, 29 Apr 2011 03:32:21 GMT

There is one colt that is must use for and he is listed below:

Shackleford:

His FL Derby performance was far better than winner Dialed In. Why? Shackleford made his debut in a 6 1/2F race on Keeland’s poly tack. He finished 9th of 12 beaten 8 1/2L. Time of the race (1:23 flat) Five weeks later broke his maiden in 7F maiden race at CD (Time of the race 1:23 3/5) He’s clearly not a synthetic track horse. That would be his last race as 2YO. He resurfaced at Gulfstream with a winning effort in a 9F allowance race ( Time of race 1:50 flat) The internal fractions of the race merits mention – 48, 1:12, 1:36 4/5. A colt with only two races; 6.5F & 7F coming off a two months break is asked to run 9F. This is not the norm. A shorter race would be normal before a lack of foundation horse is asked to take on 9F. Well, Shackleford won and in addition to swerving he finished the race on the wrong lead. His winning time of 1:50 flat would eventually be better than those for the FOY & FL Derby. He made his graded race debut in the FOY and was beaten by 23 1/2L in a time of 1:50 1/5.His projected finishing time in the FOY was approximately 1:55 4/5. He entered the FOY off short rest and apparently not fully recovered from the grueling 9F 3YO debut. He returned in the FL Derby and again swerved in the latter part of the race to lose by head in 1:50.07. The final time for the FL Derby meant that Shackleford made a 4.80 seconds reversal on his FOY final time. No other colt entering the FL Derby had ever been beaten 23L in any race. Stay Thirsty came in second as he was beaten 14 ½ in the BCJ. For mere allowance winner running his third 9F races in two months, he finished ahead of 4 of 5 graded winners and lost by a HD to the other.

Storm Cat stallions rarely feature in the Derby. Make Music For Me was a surprising 4th in the 2010 Derby and is probably the first time a horse from a Storm Cat stallion made the derby board. A Storm Cat stallion is due to serve up a derby horse and I think that horse is Shackleford. His dam sire Unbridled must have a broodmare somewhere that can add to his legacy. There were six colts on the derby trail produced from Unbridled broodmares and Shackleford is the only one that made the cut. Unbridled was the last derby winner to sire a derby and has sired a winner of remaining two legs of the TC. . Unbridled is clearly the best extension of Mr. Prospector and it would not be a surprise if Shackleford wins the derby on what is shaping up to be a muddy track. :

Shackleford broke his maiden a CD like Dialed In. Below are the internal fractions of the races:

Dialed In 61/2F: 22.40, 45.40, 1:10.80, 1:17.60

Shackleford 7F : 22.80, 46.60, 1:11.00, 1:23.60

The extrapolated times shows Shackleford as the faster of the two colts. Dialed In is either #1 or #2 on most derby lists. Shackleford is the better of the two and will not be closing from another zip code on a sloppy track. He has to be in all my bets.

re: Derby Dozen - April 26, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Coldfacts — Fri, 29 Apr 2011 01:12:50 GMT

I understand there is a lot of confusion regarding this year’s derby field but to restore Uncle Mo to the # slot has gone beyond confusion.

“I just cannot come up with a #1 that I’m totally comfortable with”

You had the option to leave the #1 slot vacant and start at #2. It would have been unprecedented for the Derby Dozen but it would have been more reflective of the current state of Derby affairs.

“I am going back to the horse most people thought was a superstar only a couple of weeks ago”

SUPERSTAR - One that is extremely popular or prominent or that is a major attraction.

Nowhere in that definition is there a reference to exceptional ability. The colt with the most appeal is not the one with the best performances as a 3YO. You are correct in forecasting that you would be hammered as you were well aware that the premise for ranking Uncle Mo #1 was without foundation. We expect you to make tough decision and you must be given a very low grade for this one. You are allowed a bad joke and you now owe serious thoroughbred fans a Dozen that reflect seriousness at the top.

“As gifted as he is, that's good enough for me”

Statements like the above have left me asking you, Jason and others what has Uncle Mo done so far to be considered so gifted. Has he been the gift that has kept on giving? Gifted horses normally achieve exceptional feats. Uncle Mo’s record reflects nothing exceptional. I know the Uncle Mo lovers are going to be all over me for the aforementioned statement. However, if they cannot present some colt facts and not the usual emotionally driven comments, they are advised not to challenge my assessment that he is just a nice colt. As a 3YO he has not raced against any of the colts he defeated in the BCJ. He might have been gifted against the BCJ field but he was soundly beaten by the best horses he faces as 3YO. The really gifted ones find ways to win even when they are not at their best. Has Uncle Mo produced a gifted performance in his two starts as a 3YO? No! Does he have the first, second, third, fourth or fifth best performance for a 3YO? No! How many of the colts he defeated in the BCJ will he be facing in the derby? Subject to correction; None! If in spite of these cold facts Uncle Mo is god enough for you and other then this reaffirms the fact that there is no man blinder than he who refuses to see.

re: Derby Dozen - April 26, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

vapaul67 — Thu, 28 Apr 2011 16:55:17 GMT

So, Pants On Fire wins 4 of your pre-derby awards, Mucho Macho Man won 3, Uncle Mo maybe got one award and he goes back to #1? And Dialed In you have at 2 but the horses who appearently impressed you the most in the prep races get #5 and #6? It's your list and can do what you want but I would've expected more of you to thsn to have the 2 chalks at the top of your list. I expect this from Ron Nicoletti or Jill Byrne but not you. I have asked this question on numerous sites and noone has provided me with an intelligent answer but I will ask it here again; With as many as 5 other speed horses signed in for this years Derby and the fact that he has never ever really sat behind horses in a race does anyone reasonably think Uncle Mo can win with his running style? How can you have confidence he's gonna be able to sit behind horses in this race when he's never done it before? And if you are of the thinking he's the fastest of the speed horses I think Shacklefords and Comma To The Top have something to say about that.

re: Derby Dozen - April 26, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Oldie — Thu, 28 Apr 2011 14:59:56 GMT

Just wanted to say I hope all our fellow fans and their friends, families, and animals are safe and sound as this weather system works its way through what appears to be the entire Eastern half of the country.

Trackjack, congratulations to you, and I hope you have the trip you have dreamt of!

re: Derby Dozen - April 26, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Slew — Thu, 28 Apr 2011 12:14:28 GMT

First, let me offer my condolences to family and friends of the victims of these terrible tornadic storms pulsating so violently throughout the Eastern US.

Horses in Kentucky may need waders to get any exercise this week.

KY Vet: STOP SHOUTING!

Steve: nice list, but I expected POF to be a bit higher. Uncle Mo may be fast, but his ability to get the distance has always been a nagging question. All front runners like POF and Soldat may lose in a speed duel with him, and so may not finish well along with Mo tiring. The closers, Dialed In and Nehro..DI is a big boy, but Nehro is faster. Where they finish depends on the traffic. Mid-Pack boys...Archx3, Midnight Interlude, MMM, Stay Thirsty, Toby's Corner will be fighting with Shackleford, who is now in. I think the mid-pack boys have the best chances. Brilliant Speed and MOH..turf...not dirt. And I really have to go back and rewatch the runs of the rest who I didn't find exciting the first time.

(Now I hope the tornado warnings are over for the week...my basement is simply too creepy, and has too many windows. Meanwhile, my brilliant cats always seem to head up the stairs and under the bed with the first roll of thunder. What to do?)

re: Derby Dozen - April 26, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Matt Helm — Thu, 28 Apr 2011 04:15:28 GMT

Steve you are the king of turf writers there is none higher.However,I can't let this Uncle Mo ranking go un checked.Simply I just don't see him as a horse with the guts to win the derby.Also the horses he beat at two are nowhere to be found on the derby trail.The Gulfstream race was soft at best and set up just like his races at two.The only time he got looked in the eye Toby and Arthur blew bye him and they didn't have the greatest of trips.Nine days to go can't wait.

re: Derby Dozen - April 26, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Forbidden Apple — Thu, 28 Apr 2011 02:32:06 GMT

1-DIALED IN 2-BRILLIANT SPEED 3-SOLDAT 4-ARCHARCHARCH 5-Shackleford 6-MuchoMachoMan 7-Toby's Corner 8-Pants On Fire 9-Master Of Hounds 10-Nehro 11-Midnight Interlude 12-Santiva

I have had Dialed In in my #1 spot since February 14. I still believe he is the most talented horse in this years KY Derby. He runs with power and determination in every start. I keep hearing others knocking this horse for one reason or another. So far he has been durable and seems to keep on improving. The 1 1/4 mile distance should be a perfect fit for this fine colt.

Brilliant Speed should also love the 1 1/4 mile distance. He always fires a good late kick and only needs a good trip to hit the board. I will keep him at #2 if Rosario stays aboard.

Soldat is a horse that deserves far more repect than he is getting. I trust Kiaran when he said the Churchill surface should suit his colt well. This time I hope he sits just off the pace and gets first run on the speed.

ArchArchArch is a horse that I never make any money on, but I will be using him next out. I am still kicking myself for using Sway Away instead of ArchArchArch in the AR Derby. Like Soldat, I am hoping that ArchArchArch gets an early jump on the speed.

Uncle Mo is a very poor choice for the #1 spot on the D.D. list. In 2011 Uncle Mo has been a phantom runner. If he hits the board in the KY Derby, then I will lose and I can accept that.

re: Derby Dozen - April 26, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Johnny — Thu, 28 Apr 2011 02:29:54 GMT

So Twice the Appeal gets Borel..

A horse that has won 3 of his last 4. A horse is speed figures have improved with every race..

A mid packer who this years derby may be setting up for with all the closers..

Now you have the Hottest KY Derby Jock on him..

What you say 40-1???

This horse will get a wager from me.

I am defintly doing a 5 horse bomber tri..

re: Derby Dozen - April 26, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

KY VET — Thu, 28 Apr 2011 02:01:51 GMT

IF YOU REALLY WANT TO KNOW WHY UNCLE MO IS/WAS SO GOOD,(108BEYER ONE OF BEST EVER FOR CUP), IT IS HIS STRIDE...SPEED/TALENT/ABILITY TO RELAX/SMART...YES.....BUT THIS HORSE HAS AN AMAZING STRIDE....YOU MAY NOT KNOW THIS...HE'S NOT A TALL HUGE HORSE....BUT JUST COUNT HOW MANY STRIDES,FROM A CERTAIN POINT IN HIS RACES...THEN COMPARE THE OTHER HORSE NEXT TO HIM..TRY THE 2ND BY FAR BEST 2YR OLD BOYSOFTOSCANOVA IN THE CUP....WHAT YOU WILL FIND WILL AMAZE YOU! IN CASE YOU DON'T KNOW, THIS IS IMPORTANT! A HORSE TAKES A BREATH EVERY STRIDE...THIS HELPS GO A DISTANCE....CRUISING SPEED....STEADY PACE.....NOT TO USE THIS AS EXCUSE, BUT, MIGHT EXPLAIN A LITTLE WHY HE DIDN'T BURST AWAY IN STRETCH IN WOOD..(HE IS NOT A BURST HORSE)...IE STRETCH WAS SPRINT TO WIRE IN SLOW PACE....HE STILL IS BETTER THAN THOSE THAT BEAT HIM, SO HE PROB WAS SICK...BUT MAYBE A COMBINATION OF THE 2.......TRUST ME....GO COUNT HIS STRIDE.......I KNOW A GREAT HORSE WHEN I SEE ONE.....HE CAN LOSE EVERY RACE FROM NOW...HE STILL PROVED ALREADY HE WAS GREAT.....

re: Derby Dozen - April 26, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Kristen — Thu, 28 Apr 2011 01:05:26 GMT

Deacon, I agree with you. I am NOT a Calvin Borel fan at all. But statistics don't lie as you pointed out. He is good at the Downs. He to me is too whip happy. But he does win at CD. We'll see where he winds up

re: Derby Dozen - April 26, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

robinm — Thu, 28 Apr 2011 00:57:29 GMT

At this point I don't think anyone can be critical of anyone's choices. A case can be made for or against every horse either definitely in or "on the bubble".

However, I'm in agreement with Steve. None of the horses have impressed me as much as Uncle Mo. Yes, I know his last important win was at 2, but it was at Churchill Downs and it never hurts to have shown a previous affinity for that track. If he is over the GI problem, in my opinion he has a better chance than most. Recent history tells us horses don't have to have a "distance" pedigree to win the Derby.

re: Derby Dozen - April 26, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

predict — Thu, 28 Apr 2011 00:01:47 GMT

Steve! Nothing speaks more about the derby this year than you making Uncle Mo number one. What has he proven as a 3 year old that makes him number one? We can only imagine what great things are to come from him, because we certainly haven't seen them. Why? Why? Why? should we accept that he is the best horse currently, when he has DONE ABSOLUTELY NOTHING, THIS YEAR.

I respect your opinions, always, for you are the greatest racing authority and writer I have ever read, but please.

Consider yourself hammered.

re: Derby Dozen - April 26, 2011 - Presented by Pauls Mill

Bspec1 — Wed, 27 Apr 2011 23:46:46 GMT

'Mo and Shackleford are my fav's