Derby Dozen - February 3, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

re: Derby Dozen - February 3, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Karen in Texas — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 01:12:33 GMT

Criminal Type---Yes, I saw that later on the actual blog segment, too. An ESPN poll shows 72% against and 28% for the idea. Maybe public opinion will make a difference if presented to the connections. As you said, I feel sorry for Hansen at this point.

re: Derby Dozen - February 3, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Criminal Type — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 18:56:03 GMT

Karen, Dr Hansen quoted "Maker is on board".

re: Derby Dozen - February 3, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Slew — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 00:18:05 GMT

Dear (and I use the term out of decorum) Dr. Hansen, are you out of your mind? Dye any part of Hansen's coat? &*^%$#@*&@#!

Totally classless..(why am I surprised?)

re: Derby Dozen - February 3, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Karen in Texas — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 00:13:44 GMT

Dr. D, Criminal Type, et al----As the article states, Hansen deserves better. He is beautiful and will forever be the Eclipse Champion 2-yr-old colt of 2011. All I can think is that Mike Maker may be able to stop the nonsense. I am not beyond contacting him via e-mail. How could anyone think such silliness is appropriate??

re: Derby Dozen - February 3, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Dr Drunkinbum — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 00:00:10 GMT

Dr. Hansen isn't a plastic surgeon is he? I fear that a nose job and tummy tuck might be next. Hansen is one gorgeous and dynamic competitor. Leave the kid alone.

re: Derby Dozen - February 3, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

TerriV — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 22:15:34 GMT

Also, sad to hear about Big Brown's daddy. Rest in Peace, Boundry.

re: Derby Dozen - February 3, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

TerriV — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 22:14:19 GMT

Here we go again!! I'm so excited - just like always when we start down the Derby Trail. One thing I have to say is that that is the best group of Names for a Triple Crown that I've heard in a long time. Maybe we can take that as a sign??

re: Derby Dozen - February 3, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Criminal Type — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 21:41:28 GMT

Karen, Thanks for the link to that article concerning Hansen and the dyed mane & tail. Although I am not particlarly crazy about this horse, I just don't think he is a classic distance horse. I actually think he will excell at shorter distance races like the Kings Bishop. I think his owner is a few bricks short of a full load. When he got down and kissed the ground at Churchill after the Breeders cup Juvi, I thought it was a little bizarre and a lot unsanitary. Now im sure he is a a little nuts. The folks at PITA will have a field day with this (point of reference: the bruhaha over the pink dyed horses in the Selena Gomez music video) Apparently Dr Hansen has not fully thought this through. Maybe he just doesnt realize how many people will be upset, offended and even sicked by these proposed actions. I feel sorry for the poor horse.

re: Derby Dozen - February 3, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Dr Drunkinbum — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 21:18:30 GMT

Karen In Texas

Thanks for the espn link. Just the thought of coloring Hansen up makes me ill. How about polka dot and change his name to Little Dot? Or paint him like a clown suit and call him Bozo The Clown? I will always love the horse but if they make him into a coloring book I'm going to have difficulty rooting for him because of the travesty and connections. Beauty is only skin deep so they could paint him green and call him The Incredible Hulk. I think I might have to drink a shot of White Lightning in memorium.

re: Derby Dozen - February 3, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Karen in Texas — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 15:55:57 GMT

Dr. D---Link to editorial.

espn.go.com/.../hansen-deserves-better

re: Derby Dozen - February 3, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Karen in Texas — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 15:49:54 GMT

Dr. D----You're welcome. I am glad to hear the blinkers are coming off as well. On a different (and bizarre, slightly sad) note, there is an editorial on ESPN's site that claims Dr. Hansen has also blogged that he wants to dye Hansen's tail and mane in future races. He apparently thinks the fans will love it--makes me ill. I'll see if I can link that here. If not, it's on ESPN's horseracing page.

re: Derby Dozen - February 3, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Dr Drunkinbum — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 14:40:29 GMT

Karen In Texas

Thank you very much for that link !!!! I knew Hansen would be mad about the loss. He's just that kind of a competitor. I'm glad the blinkers are coming off.

re: Derby Dozen - February 3, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Slew — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 23:57:23 GMT

Considering mares have only one foal per year, it can't stack up to the sires' stakes winners.

But Footlick (love that tag..even though you still won't tell us what it's all about.) it's not a rare occurrence. I cited Urban Sea (simply because she's a well established broodmare who kept foaling champions). Billy's Empire cited Better Than Honour and Casino Drive. We would have to include Personal Ensign and Miesque, LaTroianne, ....just look for a list of blue hen mares. They're highly prized but not as rare as Coldfacts wants you to believe. He used that "semi-fact" to exclude Empire Way from Derby consideration.

I see Coldfacts spending most of his time shooting down other peoples' favorites without listing his own. Last April, he did make a choice..I believe it came down to the wire between Dialed In and shackleford. The problem is that he attacks others with conclusions and myths he likes to call "facts". Most people have reasons for their choices. Coldfacts just spends his time telling them they're wrong...and wields his opinions under the guise of "facts".

re: Derby Dozen - February 3, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Footlick — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 15:21:29 GMT

Slew- he did say rarely and you have to admit it is not an everyday occurrence. The percentage is probably quite low. So he actually has not been proved wrong in this case. He didn't say it never has happened. He said rarely, which is correct.

re: Derby Dozen - February 3, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Weekend — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 15:16:10 GMT

Also, you can throw that derby standards crap out the door. The last 20 years have changed what "Derby Standards" are. Dual Qualifiers, Beyer Speed figures, internal fractions, breeding, etc, when it comes to the Derby now, it is all about who is fit, ready and has a good foundation. Derby standards used to be to have Preps every month, now they train up to races to have a fresh horse. Derby Standards did not have geldings win, or NY breds, and they all came from major preps, not the Sunland Derby. The game is changing, you better get on board.

re: Derby Dozen - February 3, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Weekend — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 15:08:34 GMT

Slew, Coldfacts, just to piggyback on this conversation, Better Than Honour produced back to back Belmont winners 5 years ago, rags to riches and Jazil. Casino Drive was no slouch either, so her producing three very accomplished winners and stakes horses in a row must be a miracle...

re: Derby Dozen - February 3, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Karen in Texas — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 03:36:40 GMT

Dr. Hansen shared his thoughts/feelings on Hansen's loss in the Holy Bull via a blog I found by accident. He states that the blinkers are coming off for the next race. I'll try to link the entry for anyone who might like to read it.

blogs.courier-journal.com/.../analyzing-hansens-first-defeat-among-other-things-blinkers-will-come-off

re: Derby Dozen - February 3, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Slew — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 00:36:37 GMT

Coldfacts: even when your "facts" are proven wrong, you continue to persist usings stats that don't exist. Most recently you said...

" A broodmare rarely produces two champions consecutively. He is slow by Derby standards." when referring to Empire Way.

Again I would refer you to Urban Sea as a prolific broodmare of champions..consecutively.

It's one thing to cite a fact. It's a totally different critter when you consider your opinion to be a fact, when it is, in fact, a myth that you continue to reference as though it has credence only because you claimed it was a fact.

Yes, Exothermic has an excellent pedigree, but you went out of your way to disparage Empire Way even though his pedigree is similar...same sire line. His dam just happened to also produce last year's winner of the BC Ladies, Royal Delta. I'm guessing you're relying on a false myth that lightning doesn't strike twice in the same spot. Hmmmm...scientifically it does...and often strikes more than twice. As it did with Urban Sea.

By the way, as far as TC races go, have you been able to count high enough to figure out how many winners Unbridled has given us?

And Animal Kingdom is not the only horse with turf breeding to score so well on dirt. (The Derby just happened to be his first out on dirt). How about Zenyatta, Rock Hard Ten, Secretariat, Citation, etc..etc. It seems to me, most of our TB's trace back to turf horses, Nearco, Nearctic, and Natalma.

And I don't think anyone wants to see these 3 year olds scorch the track so early with such fast fractions that they have nothing left for May.

re: Derby Dozen - February 3, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 22:00:16 GMT

NASCAR PRO,

Exothermic is a nice turf colt. In his two races he has sat of slow fractions and closed with a flourish. Which to 3YO race on dirt will be run at 24, 49 & 1:13? If does not have the speed be more forwardly placed he is going to get killed by dirt colts who can cruise at 23, 46, 1:11 and accelerate. He is well bred being by the 2003 Belmont winner Empire Maker and 2005 Co-champion 3-year-old filly in South Africa. Irridescence was a champion on turf. Her sire was a turf runner in Germany. She belongs to the Million Dollar Club whose members have a strained relationship with the Derby. None have produced a winner to date. Exothermic first, second and third dam sires were turf performers. His pedigree is loaded with turf. Is it any wonder that’s where he is being raced? I know there are those that will cite Animal Kingdom’s overwhelming turf pedigree and that would be fair. However, Derby history suggest the 2012 will not be similar at least not Exothermic as he has too many Derby negatives and appears too slow to win.

re: Derby Dozen - February 3, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Karen in Texas — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 19:22:12 GMT

Deacon----You are welcome very much.

re: Derby Dozen - February 3, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

mz — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 18:42:53 GMT

Coldfacts:

Flaming Page: Nijinsky and Minsky. Her daughter had The Minstrel.

And re: Empire Way: I really, really like Exothermic (but I really, really liked his dam.) Hope he "translates" from the turf (like a couple of KD winners recently.)

re: Derby Dozen - February 3, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Cris — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 18:21:13 GMT

Good list. My picks so far are Union Rags, Secret Circle, Longfellow Drive. Been looking for Drill in something. I think Hansen will be a very good horse and even more impressive if they do not direct him towards the classics.

re: Derby Dozen - February 3, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

papillon — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 16:37:32 GMT

the weekend's races redeemed hansen's second in the holy bull for me quite a bit tbh.

the great thing about trakus, isn't the accuracy of the times--which may or may not be any more accurate than gulfstream's timer (which is notorious for being way-off in one turn mile races there), but because each horse is timed and tracked individually, so for the first time you can see what really happened--and whether a horse really did speed up or slow down.

what happened in the holy bull was this:

hansen ran the first two furlongs at a suicidal pace, and the third furlong in a respectable pace-while carrying the same weight as 5 yo game on dude in the san antonio--the only 3 year old assigned that much weight in any of the ky preps this year so far. (there seems to be something very wrong is assigning a young horse in his first race back the same weight as a top older horse in his first race back btw...).

algorithms did not make a move at all. he was consistently slowing every fraction, and closed in 25.72, while carrying 6 lbs less than hansen, and after running more reasonable fractions than hansen. if algorithms runs in the FOY, he's going to be assigned a high weight--he'll be dealing with both a distance and weight that he's never had to deal with before. (look what happened to liaison, rousing sermon, and sky kingdom when they were asked to carry real weight for the first time--and not even as much weight as hansen).

my adonis made a small move in the 3d quarter (a very small move, he sped up from 23.52 to 23.28), but could not sustain it at all and closed in 25.11. after having he run his first quarter in a reasonable 24.06, he should have had more in the tank for the final furlong. (he was carrying less weight than hansen too, but more than algorithms).

my conclusion, at equal weights, hansen crushes the holy bull field, and every other 3 year old that has run this year.

no other 3 year old has been asked to carry so much weight this year, but while much is made of 2 lbs in a race between older females, nothing is made of 6 lbs in race between horses, where most will not even be truly 3 years old for a month or two more (with hansen, a late april colt, being one of the youngest of this crop).

a lot is made of the distance of ky derby, so much so that it is often the only factor considered, but another factor of equal importance (esp. injury-wise) is that for most the horses in the derby, it is the first time they race carrying real weight. i also think this is a crucial factor in why so few BCJ winners and runners are never heard from again--that 123 lbs is a big deal for such young horses. and so far only three horses have shown they can carry it--hansen, creative cause, and union rags. we know hansen came out of the BCJ just fine, we won't know how creative cause and union rags came out for a while longer.

i'll wait to see how hansen came out of the holy bull to make any decisons, but for me he is moving ahead having carried 123 lbs twice now. he ran the holy bull under a hand ride--he chose to go that fast all on his own (which is a very different thing than doing so under urging from whips or other horses). even in the stretch he wasn't urged, but still dug in finally to hold off the rest of the field. oddly, ramon made no effort to get hansen to relax, and despite looking completely spent at 7/8ths hansen galloped out well. finally, hansen has already shown he can get 1 1/16 twice, he has also shown he is more than able to ration his speed over distance--the one turn, no-run up, one mile holy bull, is not a race that will let any horse truly ration his speed or settle and relax.

what the holy bull shows me is just how dangerous hansen's speed is, he forced all of the other horses in that race to cook themsleves too, he paid the price for it in the short run, but in the long run, it'll be interesting to see if he did't just win the war, by having lost the holy bull battle.

no other three year old to date has shown he can run as fast as long as hansen carrying weight--but to win the derby, they'll have to do just that.

re: Derby Dozen - February 3, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

zarvona — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 16:32:33 GMT

What the “little barns” should be competing against for a GATE SLOT! [[Of Course being only the 19 gates left with “Hansen” already having secured his!]], and note, this being a list that does NOT include either “Union Rags” or “Creative Cause”!!!

You really want to be placing a “future bet”? before you’ve seen this competition in action ??? We have only had one week of preps and so far the heavy 2 year campaigners fell way behind! since they blessed Doug O’Neill’s “I’ll Have Another” as a real competitor! [[Note: the ranked divisions are my own!!]]

Pletchers’ Nominees: (29)

A List:

“Algorithms”;

“Discreet Dancer”;

“El Padrino”;

“Gemologist” -WinStar;

“Harris”; “Raconteur”;

B List:

“Big Blue Nation”;

“Colony Strike”;

“Declaration of War”;

“Ender Knievel”; “Graydar”;

“Highly Justin”;

“Mordi’s Miracle”;

“New York Playboy”;

“Our Entourage”;

“Overdriven”; “Spring Hill Farm”;

“Willy Elliiot”; “Z Vilna”;

C List:

“Dan and Shelia”;

"Disposablepleasure: (f.);

“Dixie Dice”; “Ecabroni”;

“How Do I Win”;

“Late Night Action”;

“Liberty Bound”;

“Majestic Number”;

“Thunder Moccasin”; “Tommy VM”;

“Windsurfer”;

Bafferts’ Nominees: (21)

A List:

“Castaway”; “Full Cry”;

“M C’s Dream”;

“Secret Circle”; “Stirred Up”;

B List:

“Bodemeister”; “Brigand”;

“Fed Biz”; “Lasso”; “Liaison”;

“Macho Rocket”;

“Sky Kingdom”; “Stat”;

C List:

“Blueskiesnrainbows”; “Branaman”; “Captain Baker”; “Drill”;

“Eaton Hall”; “Night Tide”;

“Princess Arabella” (f.);

“Senor Hambone”;

Asmussen’s Nominees:

A List:

“Sabercat”;

“Saturday’s Charm”; “Tritap”;

“Unbridled’s Note”; “Verne”;

“Wharton”; “Whinston”;

B List:

“Bravo Habibi”;

“Class President”;

“Daddy Nose Best”; “Hierro”;

“Lake Victor”; “Major Hope”;

“Welter Weight”; “Z Dager”;

Romans’ Nominees:

A List:

“Captial Goods”; “Captain Ben”;

“Dullahan”; “Gaelico”;

“Google My Grandson”;

“News Pending”;

”Quick Wit”-WinStar; “Seve”;

“Suns Out Guns Out”:

B List:

“Cozzetti”;

“Finnigan’s Wake”;

“King Kid”: “Silver Max”;

“Z Camelot”;

Casse’s Nominees:

A List:

“Bluedacious” -WinStar;

“Conserve”;

“Moon Traveler”;

“Prospective”; “Steelcase”;

B List:

“Dynamical”; “Patrioticandproud”;

McLaughlin’s Nominee’s:

A List:

“Alpha”; “Consortium”;

“McKinley Square”; “Steele Road”;

“Unbridled Fire”;

B List:

“Got What”;

“Little Hail”; “Slew”;

Hollendorfer’s Nominee’s:

A List:

“Candy’s Jewel”;

“Longview Drive”;

B List:

“Rousing Sermon”;

“Russian Greek”;

re: Derby Dozen - February 3, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 15:30:34 GMT

Matthew W,

I advise you to take with a grain of salt what trainers say. Mr. Lukas made the same remark about Dublin. If Creative Cause’s record is carefully examined it will reflect that he has beaten what has turned out to be CA’s second stringers at best. He tracked Hansen in the BCJ and was unable to produce enough finishing speed to get by in what was a slowly run race. His last race preceding the BCJ was completed in a slow 1:43 and change for the speedway at SA. Creative Cause is a nice colt but his limitations have already been exposed and while he can improve those that are better will improve also. Mr. Haskin was being generous to rank him #1.

As for Empire Way he is a victim of being the sibling that follows an impressive brother or sister. A broodmare rarely produces two champions consecutively. He is slow by Derby standards.