Derby Dozen (video) - February 6, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 6, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Forbidden Apple — Tue, 14 Feb 2012 14:12:02 GMT

How can one simply call Out Of Bounds a miler when he has not even had a chance to prove himself beyond 1 mile? And for my money I would take Gomez over any other jockey in CA.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 6, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

El Kabong — Tue, 14 Feb 2012 00:57:23 GMT

Coldfacts,

In OOB you correctly identified a miler. Congratulations. Was it tough spotting a Discreet Cat Miler. I didn't think so. Dismiss Bejarano at your own peril. There could have been a number of reasons why he chose secret circle over OOB but one thing is for sure. He did not get off either one of them claiming-this is my derby horse-and as a leading rider, I think he knows a bit more about the athlete under his saddle than any one of us hacks. And don't bother telling me his record in the derby is worse than Pletcher's. We'll just have to wait till they stretch it out in the SA Derby.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 6, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

JerseyBoy — Mon, 13 Feb 2012 19:09:49 GMT

There are times when one reads nonsense and just ignores it. However, when the nonsense is repeated ad nauseam, one is forced to comment.

One such bit of nonsense is the suggested reduced ability of”overbred” stallions to produce top performers because they covered a large number of mares.

Note the term “overbred” has not been defined by the user. So for the sake of argument let us take the term to indicate sires bred to more than 100 mares.

One question that arises is why do some sires get bred to so many mares? The obvious answer is that they must be very good. If not why would breeders rush to breed to them.

In any case, you can judge for yourself. Here is the list of stallions used in 2011 and the number of mares they were bred to. Which of the top dozen would you downgrade because they are so called “overbred”?

jockeyclub.com/information.asp

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 6, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

zarvona — Mon, 13 Feb 2012 17:13:24 GMT

Oh, and another off hand that I seemed to have left out of earlier postings, and yet also another "Storm Cat" bred:

"Forward March": (Kty.):

Tr. C.R. “Suggs” McGaughey III; D.I. 2.20; -3/20/09 foal;

$2Mil. $50K ‘10 Keenlander;

1- 1-0-0 125-1

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 6, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

zarvona — Mon, 13 Feb 2012 17:07:45 GMT

And the "betters" add their early say to the rakings following in 'Pool #1' ; where maybe the biggest surprises was the support for "Empire Way" !!

Mutual field (all others): -3/2

Union Rags:

10-1 7-1 #1

Algorithms

8-1 12-1 #2

El Padrino:

20-1 16-1 #3

Creative Cause:

20-1 17-1 #4

Alpha:

20-1 19-1 #5

Fed Biz:

20-1 21-1 #6

Gemologist:

20-1 22-1 #7

Out of Bounds:

20-1 23-1 #8

Hansen:

12-1 26-1 #9

I’ll Have Another:

20-1 29-1 #10

Discreet Dancer:

15-1 30-1 #11

Empire Way:

50-1 33-1 #12

Sabercat:

30-1 34-1 #13

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 6, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Weekend — Mon, 13 Feb 2012 16:31:23 GMT

the only thing I see that is CAUSE for concern in Creative Cause, he did not switch leads until 3 strides before the wire in his latest work. He is going to have switch leads much earlier going

1 1/4. other than that, he is a runner.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 6, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Karen in Texas — Mon, 13 Feb 2012 15:57:34 GMT

Melanie---I think Victor Lebron rides mostly a local circuit at Turfway and in Ohio and Indiana.

Mr. Haskin----A DRF article says Hansen became ill after the Holy Bull. I had noticed that he had not worked, but thought it was probably due to the weather. Do you have any information about his having been sick?

www.drf.com/.../aqueduct-hansen-will-make-next-start-gotham

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 6, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Forbidden Apple — Mon, 13 Feb 2012 12:05:01 GMT

Nascar Pro,

Okay, but your response about padding a bank account is hilarious. If you did a little research on Alpha's owner, then you would take back what you wrote. Alpha's owner is a billionaire many times over. Winning a $150k race might be enough for a few loads of ocean sand to build his next island. Godolphin has a rich history with horses, breeding and racing. And I'm not talking about modern day racing, the history of the Godolphin Arabian horse goes back hundreds of years. They want to win the greatest race in the world, the Kentucky Derby. Godolphin/Darley has a breeding and racing program around the world that is second to none.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 6, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Melanie — Mon, 13 Feb 2012 03:05:42 GMT

Also interesting where Hansen is concerned as the way they're playing his races out. Years ago, newly turned 3yos began their season in shorter races and as the season moved along, their distances increased, peaking the 1 1/4 miles in May. Slew and Secretariat both began their 3yo seasons this way. It wasn't that long ago that I had read this, perhaps even in my Blood Horse, how todays runners just aren't brought along like those years ago. It didn't hurt Slew and Secretariat & I don't see how it could hurt Hansen, either.

I do have 1 question though - does anyone know why they changed riders on Hansen? I thought Victor Lebron was doing an excellent job - they were 2 for 2...

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 6, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Mon, 13 Feb 2012 01:53:03 GMT

The ability of the well bred Alpha is being questioned because of the soft competition he has faced as a 3YO and the moderate Beyers he has received. He is ranked at #10 in Mr. Haskin’s 2nd Derby Dozen. I find his ranking puzzling considering the likes of El Padrino, #4 and Gemologist, #8 are ranked ahead of him. Can these rankings be justified? What do the cold facts reflect?

ALPHA:

Graded Stakes: 1st Withers G3; 2nd G1 Champangne; Unplaced G1 Breeder Cup Juvenile. Won on debut at Saratoga (7F, MSW).

El PADRINO:

Graded Stakes: 3rd Remsen G3; 2nd on debut at Saratoga (7F, MSW).

GEMOLOGIST:

Graded Stakes: 1st Kentucky Jockey Club G2; Won on debut at Turf Way Park, (6F, MSW).

Alpha won a G3; placed in one of two G1s; won on debut at tough Saratoga and is given a #10 ranking. El Padrino who has not won a graded race; has not contested a G1 and was a loser on debut at tough Saratoga is given a #4 ranking. Alpha has the more proven pedigree as his dam sire Nijinsky was also the dam sire of Belmont Stakes winner Colonial Affair. Has is also grand dam sire of the 2011 Breeder Cup Classic winner Drosselmeyer. El Padrino’s dam sire Giant’s Causeway is not known as a broodmare sire of any significance.

Gemologist has run some very slow times over 81/2F at CD i.e. 1:45.24 & 1:44.46. Alpha won the Withers in 1:44.23 on a track much slower than the CD strip. His winning time could have been better with more competition. Gemologist broke his maiden at Turf Way Park and was fully extended to hold off Ever So luck and others in the KJC. On the issue of pedigree, A mare sires by Mr. Prospector has never been associated with winner of a Triple Crown race. Is the slow Gemologist going to be the first? Unlikely!

Alpha is a better bred and better quality colt than both El Padrino and Gemologist and has certainly run faster than both. I am aware that I am not a very bright guy. Consequently, I would appreciate an explanation for these rankings with existence of the above cold facts.

Are Beyer Speed Figures the only measure use in the evaluation process?

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 6, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

NASCAR PRO — Mon, 13 Feb 2012 01:28:35 GMT

Hello If anyone is interested in an informative response post as opposed to a rebuttal post feel free to have a go at this.What are your pedigree opinions and ideas about Bluegrass Cat as a sire.I know that he once was at Winstar and now is at Vinnery.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 6, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

NASCAR PRO — Mon, 13 Feb 2012 00:52:28 GMT

Forbidden Apple I think you misinterpreted my meaning.When I started posting about Alpha, was when Steve Haskin started this blog.At that time it looked like they were running more for the money than prepping for the Derby,at least to me,by choosing to pad the bank account in the Gotham.So I posted the path of least resistence post, which was vigorously contested by Coldfacts.Since then things have changed, Alpha is headed to the G1 Wood or Florida Derby which will provide all of us handicappers a better idea if he belongs in G1 competition as a 3yo.That is why I posted no more G3 bank deposits G1 bank deposit or go home so to speak(or write)I am not badgering any of these colts or their ownership,I just write my opinions,if anyone wishes to contest them be my guest,you are free to do so.If you analyze my posts carefully like some might do you will see that I said I would watch his next race and decide if I still thought the same way.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 6, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Sun, 12 Feb 2012 23:31:49 GMT

El Kabong,

Mr. Bejarano took the more advanced and accomplished Secret Circle instead of Out Of Bounds in the Sham. His comments therefore cannot be taken seriously. This time of year is silly season for riders who have many options. Neither Fed Biz nor Bodemeister has accomplished what OOB has. I watched an interview with Mr. Gomez earlier today and he was anxious to get back as he does not want to lose the ride on OBB. I have been waiting for a member of the Millionaire Club and Breeder Cup winning mare to produce a Derby caliber horse. I think my wait is over. I identified OOB as such a horse from his 4th place finish in his debut effort. This led to my making a handsome return in the Sham. This colt has all the assets to win the derby. Although still green he defeated one of the fastest colts in the US. If you revisit the Sham and focus on his rider just be before he started to negotiate the final turn you will see that Mr. Gomez had the colt in hand in a 45, 1:10 pace. This colt has the tactical speed to stalk fast fraction. This he must have been inherited from his sire. He has the stamina to sustain a strong closing gallop. This he inherited from his stretch running dam. A lot of contributors have probably forgotten that in addition to her Breeder Cup Ddistaff victory, Unbridle Elaine ran second to the brilliant Ghostzapper in the PA Derby. This big 17 hands chestnut has a great chance to break several jinexs.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 6, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Criminal Type — Sun, 12 Feb 2012 23:24:18 GMT

Coldfacts, You can justify things anyway you like. The only part of my comment you did not disect was the one where I addressed your pontification and failure to keep it simple.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 6, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

zarvona — Sun, 12 Feb 2012 22:48:00 GMT

Well Rangulzion

…who am I highest on at this moment as of -2/12/12 ???? Although I never do put much credence into lists, mine or others, don’t usually ever display one, or am I that high on rankings this early on and until we get to about 2 weeks away really, but do I chart and follow many, and many I will undoubtedly leave off this list, but since you asked, I do rank a few higher than others at this time, that being BEFORE we HAVE yet SEEN a MAJOR prep other than the BC Juv., which usually as history has proven is all a bit meaningless by the time DERBY TIME actually rolls around, since we want a 3 Yr. peeking the first week in MAY !!! not in Oct. of the year previous… but higher on my current watched lists are:

Odds as of Wynn’s Encore -2/7/09

“Algorhithms”; 10-1

“Bodemeister”;

- n/l’d. Storm Cat-

“Creative Cause”; 20-1

** Giants Causeway-Storm Cat-

“Discreet Dancer”; 18-1

Storm Cat-

“El Padrino”; 28-1

“Empire Way”; 40-1

“Exothermic”; 100-1

“Fed Biz”; 40-1

** Giant’s Causeway-Storm Cat-

“Hansen”; 18-1

Storm Cat-

“Gemologist”; 25-1

“I’ll Have Another”; 65-1

“Longview Drive”; 125-1

“Midnight Transfer”; 50-1

“Secret Circle”; 30-1

…((possibly only a sprinter ?))

“Stirred Up”; 60-1

“Teeth of the Dog"; -n/l’d

** Bluegrass Cat-Storm Cat

“Thunder Moccasin”; 100-1

“Union Rags”; 10-1

“Welter Weight”; 100-1

…have all caught my eye thus far and that so, not being high on Storm Cat bred animals or Indian Charlie breds for the Derby run as stated in the past.

Yet also Currently Still Under High Watch:

There are these “potatoes” also:

“Alpha”: 11-1

“Battle Hardened”: 30-1

“Blingo”: 40-1

“Brigand”: 225-1

“Big Screen”: 125-1

“Castaway”: 125-1

“Casual Trick”: 50-1

“Consortium”: 60-1

“Consulado”: 60-1

“Cyber Secret”: 150-1

“Declaration of War”: -n/l’d.

“Done Talking”: 200-1

“Finnegan’s Wake”: 175-1

“Fly Lexis Fly”: 60-1

“Groovin’ Solo”: 150-1

“Hierro”: 50-1

“Holy Candy”: 75-1

“Howe Great”: (T) 125-1

“Liaison”: 20-1

“Maan”: 85-1

“Macho Rocket”: 125-1

“Mark Valeski”: 175-1

“Monastic”: 100-1

“Motor City”: 60-1

“My Adonis”: 45-1

“Naajjaar”: 150-1

“Neck’N Neck”: 85-1

“Prospective”: 100-1

“Raconteur”: 175-1

“Russian Greek”: 50-1

“Segway”: 80-1

“Shared Property”: 75-1

“Sky Kingdom”: 60-1

“Souper Speedy”: 100-1

“Spring Hill Farm”: 175-1

“Stat”: 80-1

“Summer Front”:(T) 125-1

“Suns Out Guns Out”: 150-1

“Take Charge Indy”: 45-1

“Timely Tally”: -n/l’d.

“Unbridled Minister”: 85-1

“Unbridled Note”: 70-1

“Wharton”: 200-1

“Whinston”: -n/l’d.

“Z Dager”: 125-1

…whereby 19 of these, other than “Hansen”, still of course have to earn their way to a “gate” and be healthy upon arrival there !!!

Good Luck…

as I said before, "its a long way still til the first week in MAY".

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 6, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Bigtex — Sun, 12 Feb 2012 21:50:05 GMT

Well, this is what I wrote on Feb. 8…

10) FED BIZ

* Bejarano is much more relaxed with the reigns here than with SECRET CIRCLE and FED BIZ seems to have a pretty high cruising speed to boot.

He moves into my top 5 now. Bejarano's comments after the race certainly didn't hurt, either.

BODEMEISTER and THUNDER MOCCASIN were sensational but how often do we see 2nd or 3rd races at sprint distances in a horse's career come and win the Derby?

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 6, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

zarvona — Sun, 12 Feb 2012 18:33:43 GMT

Gee with all the attention on “Thunder Moccasin’s” +6 ¾ Gr. II 7 fur. Hutcheson win & Pool #1 being in play, I hope some of you were still watching some of those supposedly minor under card $50K runs.

winners:

Baffert’s Storm Cat bred “Bodemeister” was maybe the most impressive in his $55K Msw win going 1:34.45 (faster than the now highly toted “Out of Bounds” time mind you over the same track !!! ) with Asmussen’s 1 million $$ Keenlander “Welter Weight” in for 2nd and Baffert’s Va. excellently bred “Stirred Up” getting in for the show. [[Looks like all 3 of these have a future in this year’s coming preps!!!]] and …not to drop “Fleet Eagle” and “Unmarked Bills” a few other TCN listees from watch lists who competed against and finished just behind that toted trio.

Also from the TCN list over this weekend,

“Old Time Hockey” ran 2nd in a 1 1/6 Msw (T) event;

Va. bred “Spring Hill Farm” won a 1 Mi. $50 OAC defeating another highly toted in “Unbridled Minister”, “Big Blue Nation” running 4th ; “Window Boy” 6th ; and “Space Race” 7th and last in that trial;

“Lake Victor” got a $50K 6 fur. win;

“Magic Number” got a $50K 7 fur. win; and

“Morgan’s Guerrilla” finished 2nd in front of “Desert Storm” 3rd; “Z Vilna” 4th; “Sensor” 6th; and “Hunter Jak” 8th all in another highly watched 7 fur. $50K Msw event. …and all that tacked on to

“Fed Biz’s” most impressive mile run pre-weekend.

“Thusly, there are still going to be lots of “potatoes” still to sort through prior to the first week of April no less the first Sat. in May !!!!

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 6, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Karen in Texas — Sun, 12 Feb 2012 17:51:05 GMT

What I see as significant about the Hansen announcement is that "they" are rethinking and regrouping, which is precisely what needed to happen. They have given themselves a bit (~one week) of additional time. Hansen only began competing in Sept. and was slam-dunked into the pressure of the BCJ in only his third start. He managed to survive that with a win. A victory in the slop at humid Gulfstream while running a first quarter in 22.56 and a second quarter in 21.91 may have been too much for him after the initial stumble in his first start of the new season. (I borrowed the times from one of papillon's posts.) Relocating him to a slightly different environment makes sense to me. None of us know how the Derby trail will ultimately play out for any of these colts. I do find it interesting that the Gotham announcement was apparently made by the chief partner in SkyChai, not by Dr. Hansen. Now, if only they will say the dyed mane and tail stuff was just "a joke".

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 6, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

El Kabong — Sun, 12 Feb 2012 17:27:34 GMT

The reason I was so curious about Bejarano's reaction to his ride on Fed Biz is just this. He has ridden Creative Cause, Out of Bounds, Secret Circle and Liason. For him to immediately claim that Fed Biz was his Derby horse means something to me and makes him worth a future wager and much more than a pretender. At 25-1, I always go with exacta boxes. They pay well.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 6, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Sun, 12 Feb 2012 16:14:28 GMT

Let me remind all that this is a forum where the supporters of Mr. Haskin post their views and opinions. He is the sole authority and decides what he thinks is appropriate to be displayed. It would be unrealistic to think that there will always be consensus on all views and opinions advanced. While consensus will never be achieved, one thing that can be is respect. It is something that requires very little input even if one has been schooled in the social graces. If anyone is in disagreement with the views/opinions of another, there are two options available them. They can state the basis of their disagreement in a respectful manner and allow for either clarification or verification. They also have the option to ignore the opinion and chose not to comment. If one chooses to be critical of the views of another and in a rebuttal post the critical party appears illogical and uninformed, this resulting reality should not the be the basis for posting unpleasant remarks. This type of response only serves to highlights the communication limitations of the critical party. Sometimes it must be acknowledged that a person is capable of defending and supporting what is perceived to be a non-traditional form of throughbred evaluation.

We are all thoroughbred lovers but have differing views. I refuse to believe that the common love we share for these majestic animals is not enough allow for respectful co-existence in spite of facelessness of the forum.

Many us do not know Mr. Haskin personally and have come to love him for his ability to put into words what world renowned painter put on canvas. It is too much to ask that we extend similar courtesies to each other?

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 6, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Forbidden Apple — Sun, 12 Feb 2012 15:19:05 GMT

Nascar Pro,

I don't get your continued badgering of Alpha. There is no shame in winning a grade 3 race, graded stakes earnings are a plus. No 3 year old horse has won a grade 1 race this year, because none have been contested.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 6, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Coldfacts — Sun, 12 Feb 2012 15:02:08 GMT

TerriZ

“This year's Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream is going to be a pivotal race for first class three year olds.”

I am in agreement to the extent that Union Rags and Algorthims are first class 3YO. However, Discreet Dancer is yet to start in a stakes race and should not be ranked with both. Do not get me wrong he could be just as good although I doubt it but let the race unfold before he is given undeserved accolades.

“Wouldn't it be wonderful for Penny Chenery if one of Big Red's descendents won the Triple Crown; that would be some belated 90th birthday present?”

I am aware the both Union Rags and Discreet Dancer were produced from Gone West broodmares. Gone West Dam was sire by Secretariat. In term of descendents, How would either colt be considered descendents of Secretariat?

Descendant: A person, animal, or plant whose descent can be traced to a particular individual or group.

The above definition suggests it is not accurate to regard Union Rags and Discreet Dancer as descendents Secretariat. In fact, if either colt goes on to be a great horse the particular dam would probably be crowned broodmare champion. It this occurs Gone West would be noted as broodmare sire and Mr. Prospector noted as Grand dam sire. Secretariat would not be mentioned. I recognize that you are passionate about Big Red but passion in not a basis for altering how records compiled and reported.

The celebrated Mr. Pletcher does not have a stellar record in the FOY. In his 16 years training career he has won the race twice. However, he is the king of the Hutchison Stakes that he has won 7 out of the last 11 times it has been contested. Such is his dominance in the Hutchison that between 2003-2007 he won all five renewals. The FOY appears to be between the three colts you have cited. Assuming that all the aforementioned make the race, it will mirror that of the 2006 Kentucky Derby for both trainers. In the 2006 KD Mr. Matz had the top class and undefeated Barbaro and Mr. Pletcher had Keyed Entry who shares dam with Discreet Dancer and Bluegrass Cat. The undefeated Barbaro won and Bluegrass Cat finished second. Now it’s Mr. Pletcher that has the top class/rated colt Algorthims and Mr. Matz has the highly rated Union Rags. Can the newly crowned 3000 man turn the tables on the humble and unassuming Mr. Matz? That Algorthims reflect no.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 6, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Ranagulzion — Sat, 11 Feb 2012 22:44:25 GMT

Ah well, there goes my FOY dream race with Hansen headed out of town for the Gotham. I wonder, who scared the 2YO champ away?

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 6, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Dr Drunkinbum — Sat, 11 Feb 2012 22:27:37 GMT

Slew

I'm actually more abuzz about Bodemeister than the Biz but I understand why you bizzy beez and beavers are abuzz for the Biz. The second place finisher in the 3rd at SA, behind the Bodemsiter Welter Weight has a nice pedigree, don't you think?

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 6, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Davids — Sat, 11 Feb 2012 21:56:23 GMT

Thunder Moccasin looked mighty impressive winning the Hutcheson Stakes - smooth, relaxed, and professional. Not bad for a horse running only his second race. Interesting pedigree, will he get 10f is the big question.

At this stage, T. Pletcher appears to have a very strong hand on the numbers that will contest the Kentucky

Derby. Hansen has already moved out of Gulfstream Park.