Derby Dozen (video) - February 20, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 20, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Forbidden Apple — Mon, 27 Feb 2012 16:16:46 GMT

Ever since Captain Bodgit joined the Derby Dozen blog, it has become a bit frozen.

Maybe the paid gallop by Union Rags will spark up some opinions and conversation.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 20, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Bloodline Bob — Sun, 26 Feb 2012 23:25:01 GMT

I gave everyone my 10 Derby Watch horses on 2-7-2012@ 11:44 P.M. Well, 2 of them came in second:MARK VALESKI in Risen Star,NEWS PENDING in Fountain Of Youth.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 20, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Slew — Sun, 26 Feb 2012 15:20:58 GMT

I don't know quite what it is, but there is something nagging at the back of my mind that prevents me from backing El Padrino. I had this same feeling with Uncle Mo last year, and it was his stride that put me off. With El Padrino, I can't quite put my finger on it. He won the Risen Star by a short nose over Mark Valeski. But I am fond of Z Dager, and I'm looking to see more from him. Perhaps it was EP's paddock acrobatics that took too much out of him. I thought he should have won more definitively.

I'm looking forward to the FOY today, and Algorithms remains my favorite.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 20, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

david3aa — Sat, 25 Feb 2012 17:03:57 GMT

The prep races to prep races are now are over and what I’ve always considered the real opening to the Derby season is this Sunday with Fountain Of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream, the final prep for the Florida Derby.

As soon as the Breeder’s Cup Juvy was over I turned to you all and said even though Hanson beat Union Rags, the big white horse would get no respect and the Rags would be the one the geniuses would key on. And they have. And in reality it’s legit because I believe another sixteenth of a mile Hanson would have lost on the first Saturday in November at CD. I’m not big on any front runner, as Hanson is, when it comes to the classics. So, here we are almost four months later with Union Rags making his debut going against a Pletcher double entry. That sets up badly for Rags but sent Hanson packing to New York to prep in the Gotham.

Algorithms looks like the real deal in Hallendale (even though I hate Pletcher) who is 3-3 with two wins already over the GP track and putting Hanson away in the process by winning the Holy Bull. However, I’ve seen this before where a horse will dominate early in his 3 year old campaign and bounce down the line. Like winning the battle and losing the war. I want a horse who is hitting it right now with ten weeks to go before the mile and quarter race we hold in Louisville. Trouble is, I don’t see it in this race. Nicky Z is the only other shot with Casual Trick, but god damn, he lost his last race at GP by THIRTY lengths. So, you have to just throw that out because he just lost by two lengths before that in the Gulfstream Park Derby.

Also, this weekend will bring the final prep to the Louisiana Derby in the Risen Star. I’m sticking with Mr. Bowling, who I had as the Lecomte winner. Although, I think Asmussen’s Z Dager will be the chalk. I sense an upset in the Crescent City late Saturday afternoon.

And one more item to put before you. With all these pumped up purses this season I think it will take a minimum of $250,000 this year to get into the gate for the Central Avenue 10 furlong contest this May. Oh, my horse here late in February? Well, as it is no surprise, it's a Pleasant Colony offspring who came like a freight train in the Holy Bull when he came from 20 lengths back after a half-mile over a speed-conducive sloppy sealed track, and was still nearly a dozen lengths back at the head of the stretch to finish third behind a second place Hanson. It’s My Adonis and his next start is next weekend in the Gotham against the two year old champ, the big white horse, Hanson.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 20, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Dr Drunkinbum — Fri, 24 Feb 2012 18:53:21 GMT

Bigtex

We'll know more very soon !!! All three of Algorithms races were excellent, champion caliber. He's the top monster for me until proven otherwise. El Padrino needs to do it again. Sabercat will be fun to see once they get on the ball and race him. The game plan for both Algorithms and El Padrino is superb. This is not a year to be screwing around. The Derby winner will be a monster with strong 3yo experience and peak conditioning. I sure expect and hope it's a Derby winner with 3 or more 3yo preps this yer. Too many good ones this year. Did you see Algorithms demeanor before the Holy Bull? Bowed neck, champion's attitude.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 20, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Karen in Texas — Fri, 24 Feb 2012 18:11:46 GMT

Good grief! Just when it looked as though Hansen was safe from "colorization"....we have the following blog from Dr. H:

blogs.courier-journal.com/.../tail-gate-illinois-derby-and-hawthorne-thinking-blue

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 20, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Karen in Texas — Thu, 23 Feb 2012 16:59:13 GMT

jbluesbeatle----My Miss Aurelia isn't on the list in part because she came out of the BC with an injury and has been recuperating at a farm. Her owners have stated that if able, she will be going to the Kentucky Oaks, not to the Derby.

www.bloodhorse.com/.../my-miss-aurelia-to-miss-some-training

By the way, which is it---that Matz is too cautious or not cautious enough? You're saying he's too cautious with preps, yet should have been more cautious in having scratched Barbaro. He simply used/uses the best judgement he can for a given situation in my opinion.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 20, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Stones — Thu, 23 Feb 2012 15:34:10 GMT

The Deacon....RE Street Life....ditto, on all accounts.

I'm not sure Hansen is merely a sprinter, but he is certainly running out of time to learn how to rate.

Can't wait to see El Padrino run this weekend. Hoping for a dry track to get a better read on this horse.

Also, I've been keeping my eye on My Adonis ever since his Jean Lafitte (sp?) win. Liked how he finished in the Holy Bull.

I love this time of year...

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 20, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Bigtex — Thu, 23 Feb 2012 15:17:56 GMT

Dr. D...

I agree with you except that I'm having trouble distinguishing any differences between ALGORITHMS, EL PADRINO, & SABERCAT. All three look equally talented to me & my meaningless early pick is EL PADRINO but ALGORITHMS seems to do his thing effortlessly for sure.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 20, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

El Kabong — Thu, 23 Feb 2012 11:32:46 GMT

Trebloc,

I was wrong. Unbridled sired Grindstone. So yes we are overdue. There were 12 years between Slew siring Swale and Unbridled siring Grindstone.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 20, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Davids — Thu, 23 Feb 2012 11:32:36 GMT

Cold Cast looked resonably impressive in his debut last week-end but his performance was overshadddowed by more spectacular peformances on the other side of the continent. Steve, any thoughts on this son of Bernardini? I doubt he is a Derby prospect but there are other races.

Your enthusiasm for El Padrino has me convinced, through Rose Colored Glasses.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 20, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

El Kabong — Thu, 23 Feb 2012 11:25:21 GMT

Trebloc,

I think it was Seattle Slew who sired Swale.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 20, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

The Deacon — Thu, 23 Feb 2012 07:58:50 GMT

Street Life has my attention.... Just loved Street Cry, and his son Street Sense, and his great daughter Zenyatta. Hope Street Life can keep the family tradition going. He has a ways to go in such a short time. Might be asking too much. He might be better in the summer with more seasoning.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 20, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

predict — Thu, 23 Feb 2012 05:43:21 GMT

This top twelve list is so tough, what a great group of horses. I like Creative Cause at top still, he ran third to 2 very good horses, just what he needed, wasn't blown away, and was just getting into stride at the end with plenty left in the tank. He is going to love the mile and a quarter.

I think this weekend is going to be one of the best in sometime, with Algorithmns, Union Rags, and

Discreet Dancer matching up for the first time. Union Rags got bigger and stronger? Really? Are we going to see a Big Brown like performance? It's his comeback race and it's Algorithmns first around two turns, that should equal the two out as they both chase the winner, who just loves the Gulfstream track, Discreet Dancer will blow it up!

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 20, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

jbluesbeatle — Thu, 23 Feb 2012 05:31:54 GMT

Hansen is a sprinter, nothing more or less...and Union Rags needed a prep race before a major Graded Race, because not every hprse is Man O' War who ran his first race in the Preakness as a 3 year old. If Matz is true to form, Union Rags will either run well, or poorly against more seasoned colts. Not sure why Matz doesn't get it...horses need preps, and if they show talent, as Lentenor did in finishing 4th behind Rule, don't stop racing the colt in stakes...keep pacing them. This panic over Barbaro has seemingly made him too cautious a trainer who igmores cues that even the commentators didn't miss. Michael...if your colt breaks through the starting gate early, scratch him. Just common sense. He was already likely injured prior to the Preakness and in true fight or flight, Barbaro took flight. He didn't look right before the race, either--

Why the undefeated My Miss Aurelia isn't on the list I have no idea. She can play spoiler in the Derby and the Wood....and she is good enough to beat any colt on that list.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 20, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Dr Drunkinbum — Thu, 23 Feb 2012 01:22:07 GMT

That's my "Haskin Out On A Limb Show" prediction- Algorithms wins the FOY, wins the Florida Derby, wins The Derby, wins The Preakness. He has the perfect running style- a presser that can keep up with fast early fractions and still have enough left to blow by the pace setter and finish strong. Most great runners are pressers or are flexible, able to press or lead or even close from farther back depending on the pace and race scenario. Very few are dead closers like the Great Zenyatta was but she was a freak of nature. Of course there are plenty of good ones this year that could throw a wrench into my prediction. That's why Mr. Haskin has not only a Derby Dozen but a top 35, and many have the pedigree for The Classics. I think I have Derby Fever despite getting a vaccination for it this year.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 20, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Dr Drunkinbum — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 22:27:27 GMT

Nice to have the video straight from the horse's mouth along with the list. I still love Algorithms for my number one. The rest is pretty much up for grabs for me. At this point prior to the big FOY test I'm thinking that the Pool One futures odds of 12-1 for Algorithms could be a steal. In the FOY both Discreet Dancer and Union Rags could be tough but I think it's possible for Algorithms to be undefeated going into the Belmont Stakes if he's the monster I think he is. However this is a year with many talented, fast horses who also have the pedigree. Quite often we see talented horses but question their pedigree for 10f. There are a number of them this year that could win a Triple Crown leg in a fast time. It could also be a breakthrough year for Empire Maker as a Triple Crown sire, ironically, now that he is in Japan. Very exciting year with this 3yo crop and so many top older horses returning. I like Creative Cause but I wonder if he's fast enough in this particular year with all of the horses out there that are fast and have the pedigree.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 20, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Fran Loszynski — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 17:12:23 GMT

Hansen all the way! His roots lie from the beautiful Tapit of Gainesway and that remarkable thoroughbred farm. Tapit and Afleet Alex are roommates so they are keeping "taps" on the racing sheets. Afleet Alex to Tapit: "Your kid has a great set of legs!" "Steve Haskin says its so!"

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 20, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

iceman92 — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 15:57:28 GMT

time to burn discreet dancer on the lead to see if he is this years"spend a buck" showed flawless lead change in his last race.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 20, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Trebloc — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 14:38:47 GMT

Street Sense is on fire. He has Castaway, Afford, Motor City, Sir Bond and Street Life all on the road to the Derby.

Any idea where Motor City is being pointed?

When was the last time a KY Derby winner sired a KY Derby winner?

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 20, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

wlcink — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 13:04:00 GMT

In support of Dullahan, may I just remind (or inform) everyone that he is 1/2 brother of improbable (50-1 longshot) 2009 Derby victor, Mine That Bird........ can lightning strike twice?!? I'm in his camp :-)

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 20, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

zarvona — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 09:20:56 GMT

Gee, in the olden days you won an early prep you made it to Haskin’s Dozen List and bumped a few others of the low boys, [[which this year has taken on the appearance of Downey’s deep “sack of potatoes” list or my own, for some odd reason]]. But, even after a 102 Beyer, and early exclusions since the 1st Haskin’s listing, “Why is there still no reference to “Secret Circle”?? ((OK finally a sub paragraph under 20 other names this week I see!!))I asked earlier and got no response to the question of …“Do you (Steve) know something that we don’t regarding his future campaign plans, such as, “was it passed about he would remain a sprinter? not competing over a Mile?, or so, etc.?” So now two questions, why isn't “Secret Circle” much higher up on your “Dozen’s List”? and “Do you know something regarding his future campaigning that we don’t, regarding a potential run the 1st week in May”?? I admit, he has been high on my watch list for sometime, and was mildly shocked he missed Future Pool #1. But, having gotten beaten by “a head” or whatever to “Out of Bounds”,--“Out of Bounds” being another dreaded “Storm Cat bred”,

who of course always impress during 'Prep season', he--now appears on 7 out of 10 lists while “Secret Circle” seems to have been tossed by the wayside by not only you, but also from many others future Derby probables lists. What’s up here???

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 20, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

hopalong — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 04:45:34 GMT

Currency Swap worked in 47:00 last Saturday at Gulfstream. Undefeated Hopeful winner needs a race.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 20, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Bigtex — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 03:03:15 GMT

Karen in Tx---Yes, CASTAWAY fell backwards which caused me to catch my breath because, #1, I hate seeing that and, #2, I had him in my exacta box which, by the way, was not to be because of RECKLESS JERRY'S show instead of place. CASTAWAY was a good looking horse. So was SECRET CIRCLE. LONGVIEW DRIVE was also a great looking horse so I was disappointed he didn't do better.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 20, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Forbidden Apple — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 02:58:23 GMT

1-Out of Bounds 2-Alpha 3-Union Rags 4-Saber Cat 5-Creative Cause 6-Empire Way 7-I'll Have Another 8-El Padrino 9-Algorithms 10-Gemologist 11-Battle Hardened 12-Fed Biz 13-Consortium

Union Rags does not have to win the FOY on saturday, but I would not be surprised if he wins even at 80% fitness level. It looks like the San Felipe is going to be an incredible race if all contenders show up. And Consortium can easily rebound with a strong race in the Gotham. Saber Cat and Gemologist are nice horses, when are they ever going to race again?