Derby Dozen (video) - March 12, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 12, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

zarvona — Mon, 19 Mar 2012 07:25:29 GMT

Wow, I don’t see why with $181K in earnings that ya’ll are acting like “D. Wayne” doesn’t already now have enough earnings to be a qualified runner ??? $180K has been a pretty normal cut figure in past years. And that so, especially where not all with over $200K run for medical issues, or different roads, or go into the “Oaks”, and etc., such a “Drill” and possibly “Take Charge Indy” etc., who seem to have had other paths planned for them all along anyway.

And, if I were Steve Asmussen, I would start looking somewhere else for a Derby horse instead of ‘babying’ this “Delta Jackpot’ winner who beat nobody. Moreover, “Sabercat” now looks like even if he shows up in 7 weeks, he isn’t going to improve enough to have any impact what so ever on the 2012 Kentucky Derby. And, my prediction, “Optimizer”, who was off the radar for many last week, will far exceed “Sabercat” if both are eventually entered into ‘the race’anyway.

And layoff or no layoff, “Sabercat” would have to turn into the equivalent of Superman in 7 weeks to make any impact now. So the way I see it, drop him for consideration and start training for “the Preakness”, as he’ll just be taking some other more deserving horses gate spot.

Why did the ever make the “Delta Jackpot” to be a “win and your in race” in the first place? They have made it on par to the B.C. Juvenile, which it isn’t and shouldn’t be. I agree, they need to seriously reconsider 2 year old earnings as counting and how they count, and where they count… and how much they count if they are going to continue to allow them to count!!! And, the same ‘graded’ rated events that pay different amounts ??? of graded earnings ??? Why not just say this, “x” amount counts toward graded earnings for a Gr. III , this “x” amount for a grade II , and , this “x” amount for a grade I event, and etc., and if the tracks want to thereafter add on and raise the purse amounts beyond certain limits to attract runners, then fine so be it, yet with those add ons not counted toward “graded earnings”. But some revision is needed. The way it is now, it stinks!! More and bigger pursues in California, or N.Y., and, or in Fla. versus Kty., or Ark., and etc., should not dictate where trainers are forced to have to travel. There also needs to be some better plan at a National balance. You want to do that on the basis of population? NE SE W , etc., that might be ok, but some better uniformity in the plan.

Aside, OK Chuck, “Indy” better not pull the same bomb as Haskin’s thus far toted and just got ‘sabred’ “cat” horse. Although, it is looking like the competition is getting tougher every day down there in Florida, and a quick scan tells me that in 2 weeks you are going to have to beat horses that you haven’t beaten yet and that you are still going to have to finish 1st or 2nd, or start plotting a new course, or just go back to concentrating on the Belmont,--which does appear as a bit odd to us “Crown followers”--Maybe if you were going to skip the Tampa Bay Derby you should have at least found another prep somewhere else ??? Whatever, Good Luck!!!

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 12, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

zarvona — Mon, 19 Mar 2012 07:12:56 GMT

Could one or more of these ‘bubble babies’ yet qualify and actually have any impact in the Kentucky Derby ?:

bubble1:

“My Adonis”;

“Stat”; “Take Charge Indy”;

bubble2:

“Lucky Chappy” (Ire.):

“Longview Drive”;

“Midnight Transfer”:

bubble3

“Big Screen”; “Cigar Street”;

“Ender Knievil”; “Golden Ticket”:

“Heavy Breathing”; “Holy Candy”;

“Morgan’s Guerilla”;

“My Perfect Light” (T);

“Our Entourage”;

“Paytner”; “Politicallycorrect”;

“Senor Rain”; “Shared Property”;

“Stirred Up”; “Street Life”;

“Teeth of the Dog”: “Welter Weight”;

“Went the Day Well”;

“Zachn’mat”; or “Z Dager”; ????

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 12, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mike Monarchos — Mon, 19 Mar 2012 02:43:15 GMT

El Kabong & Don from PA/DE,

I just read that Pletcher is seriously thinking of the Wood Memorial for Gemologist. He'll have to be first or second to make the Derby. Hansen and Alpha will probably both be there. Advantage to both of them since they've both won at the track this year. Should make for a great race though. Hansen has the money and doesn't have to win.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 12, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Don from PA/DE — Sun, 18 Mar 2012 15:23:58 GMT

Steve, "Gemologist" going up?

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 12, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

datflippinrabbit — Sun, 18 Mar 2012 13:02:29 GMT

Oh Oh here comes Optimizer to spoil the party.Ran green but boy did he finish 2 for 1.More earnings needed but he is a spoiler if i ever seen one.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 12, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Sun, 18 Mar 2012 00:34:44 GMT

Bloggers we have another new shooter on the trail Street Life barring unforseen circumstances will try the Wood next.Depending on perspective he might make it onto the bottom of this list next time.He won an ungraded stake race carded as the 2nd at Aqueduct but I watched it live and still cant believe he got up in Time.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 12, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

El Kabong — Sun, 18 Mar 2012 00:08:08 GMT

Optimizer will be very tough in the Ark Derby. Loved his finish. Another second place prep race that will bare fruit. He looked very good today. That is a tough track to close at 1 1/16th and he damned near stole it. Won't get 20+ next out.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 12, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

papillon — Sat, 17 Mar 2012 18:55:16 GMT

mr. deacon--no offense was meant. you read way too much into my post.

big red's weights and times weren't included to insult you, but to reinforce the point that followed that weight allowances and performance have declined precipitously since lasix became the norm in the 1990s.

to me, it seemed that deltalady wasn't attempting to recite facts but was just making an offhand general comment that horses no longer carry weight like they used to. i just feel that there is a difference between being pedantic with people who are just posting off the tops of their heads to make general points, and with people who are posting factual assertions--i value facts too--which is why i can't stand it when people post things like, "it is a fact that secret circle has a sprinter's pedigree." secret circle may well be a sprinter, but it is not because he has a sprinter's pedigree; he doesn't. again, no offense was meant--i'm sorry that you took it that way.

the only point i was trying to make was that the old canard that distance is the primary factor in the derby just isn't true anymore. and this blindspot is why no one seems to be able to pick the winner these days or to make sense of the results, or what has been happening in the fixed weight state derby preps over the last few years.

i guarantee that many light-weight favorites, whose past performances and pedigrees all point toward easily getting 9 furlongs, will falter badly under weight the first time, and will leave everyone scratching their heads to explain why--it happens every year.

but no one will say it was because horses like el padrino (should he falter) were carrying 4-6 lbs more than they ever have before, against horses that have proven they can carry weight.

when big red ran, the only new thing he had to deal with in the ky derby was an additional furlong; he had been carrying 126lbs for months--that was my point with including his weights, times, and distances--not to suggest that you did't know this, but to simply highlight the point.

look at mr. haskin's commentary and at almost every post in this thread--all they talk about is who can get the distance.

these horses are judged solely on their times, their visual appeal, their distances, and their pedigrees--their weights are totally ignored. and in looking at their pedigree's their sire's ability to race well and carry weight on lasix is also totally ignored. i do not think it is a coincidence that young sires like tapit and hard spun, who raced on lasix, are doing so well. my theory is that they have passed on an ability to cope better with lasix than some of the proven older sires who never ran on it.

my theory is also, and the data supports this, that a horse that lost at a given distance carrying less or equal weight to another horse, will not beat that horse on the same track, at a higher weight than he carried when he lost, at the same or longer distance--thus, bodemiester's best bet to beat creative cause came in the san felipe. if he couldn't do it at 1 1/16 while getting 5 lbs, he's not going to do it at 1 1/8 carrying an additional 5 lbs, unless creative cause is injured, ill, unfit, or they race on a softer track.

likewise, right now, there is no data supporting the conclusion that creative cause, dullahan, take charge indy, alpha, prospective, and my adonis, will be able to beat hansen at churchill carrying an additional 4 pounds (or 6 pounds as in my adonis's case) while also going an additional 3/16ths.

my adonis's best bet to beat hansen was at 120lbs going 8f after hansen cooked himself, but he couldn't do it--going longer, while carrying more weight, won't increase his chances, it only increases the likely margin of his defeat.

likewise, the others aren't likely to close the 1, 6, 15, 20 lengths they lost by last time to hansen, by adding more weight and by going longer.

with the three highweights--hansen, creative cause, and union rags, the question is, which one has already reached his weight limit and which one hasn't. whichever carries 126lbs better, has the advantage regardless of the distance limitations in their pedigrees. if they can all carry it equally well, then pedigree-stamina will take over (barring a crazy bad trip, illness, injury, etc.). but for now, all we know for sure is that at 1 1/16 and 122lbs at churchill, hansen beat both of them, one decisively, and should have earned the benefit of the doubt.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 12, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Don from PA/DE — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 23:58:33 GMT

Steve, BINGO, "Gemologist" amazing, one mile about one second off track record and just about equaled Mucho Macho Man's recent stakes mile win! He is the real deal, and deserves FAVOUR! Hope he stays healthy, and JC must be real relieved since giving up Union Rags mount to JL....think he will stick with this guy....Don

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 12, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

El Kabong — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 23:46:20 GMT

Mike Monarchos, Dan from PA/DE

Gems running style would do well at Arkansas. Short run from the turn home. Competition may dictate direction more than anything but that's where I'd go with this guy. Illinois Derby is a good guess too. Very speed favoring.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 12, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mike Monarchos — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 21:49:37 GMT

Gemologist looked great today at GP! He won by 7 under a hand ride in 1:35.95 over a good track. He seemed to gallop out really well. It was like a mile work, but I'm sure Pletcher won't have him run in the Florida Derby since it's the end of this month.

I didn't think the F.D. was that soon. So it looks like his next start will be the Ark. Derby or the Bluegrass. He is one big, good looking colt! LOOKOUT Union Rags!

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 12, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

El Kabong — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 18:15:35 GMT

WOW, what a gem. Pletcher has another leading contender in this year's derby. That was a thing of beauty. Gemologist just came back to the winners circle and he's doing one hoof push ups and shouting at the crowd. I can't believe my eyes or ears. He calling out for someone named "Union Hag." This is very reminiscent of the great Ali.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 12, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

PomDeTerre — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 14:42:39 GMT

Since Mr. Irwin has emphatically and repeatedly stated that Howe Great will not be pointed to the Derby, I see no purpose in including him in the "dozen". Went The Day Well is Team Valor's stated Derby horse and is flying under the radar.

Those who diss Dullahan should reconsider their opinions before May 5th. He may be an outsider, but his peformances are solid, and he is maturing well.

I, too, am disappointed with Empire Way. But it seems the expectations that were placed upon him before ever setting foot on a track were simply unfair. Rarely does a full sibling copy its older relative, and perhaps we all just wanted too much out of this colt.

IMO, Prospective was the most impressive performer last weekend, but I would not throw Trinniberg and his lesser known connections out of the mix yet.

Reckless Jerry should be interesting in the Rebel Saturday.

Rags, El Padrino & Hansen remain my top 3 at this stage. But given the slew of injuries that have already taken place this year (and just this week), I would rather ANY horse win than see another one hurt in the attempt to get to get there. Too many connections are pushing too many colts too early, and this is becoming a battle of attrition.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 12, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

The Deacon — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 06:29:43 GMT

Papillon: Delta Lady mentioned great horses from the past that carried 130 lbs, she included Secretariat. I corrected her by saying that he did not carry 130 lbs. I know full well the races he won and the weight he carried. Any long time fan of racing would know this. I to have seen most of the great one, since 1955. I believe accuracy is important on these blogs. I have no issue with anything else she stated, in fact I enjoy her posts..........

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 12, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Alex'sBigFan — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 02:12:33 GMT

GunBow,

Enjoyed your assessment of Santa Anita the other day. I like Creative Cause as well. He's got to get more focused in the stretch. I got a kick out of his "looking around!" They are travelling at top speed of what 40mph, what the heck are they looking at? How many people are waiting in the grandstands???????? It's funny, I guess they all still need to mature and settle a little. Keep the great analyses coming. Hope you enjoyed Santa Anita, I cannot wait for Belmont Park and Monmouth this spring and summer.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 12, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Alex'sBigFan — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 02:02:57 GMT

I can venture a top 5 now:

Union Rags

Creative Cause

Hansen

Alpha

Dullahan

Cannot get sold on El Padrino yet. Watching Bodemeister and something about this Mark Valeski that I like, could be the overall look, demeanor, something.......

Steve, HBO cancels "Luck" after THIRD horse death since filming? WHAT???? And they said they had higher safety measures in place than the horseracing industry has? Unfortunate. I cannot comment on "Luck" as I don't have HBO with my carrier. This is all the "outsiders" mainstream needs to hear, not good.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 12, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mike Monarchos — Thu, 15 Mar 2012 23:30:44 GMT

El Kabong,

That's a great name, by the way. I just checked the graded earnings list and Gemologist has a shade under 104,000. I'm betting it will take at least 250,000. To make the Derby this year. That means Gemologist will need to get second in a million dollar race to win 200 grand. Third place only gets him a 100 grand, which won't be enough!

Should Pletcher send him to Oaklawn, or keep

him at GP for the Florida Derby since he's running there tomorrow? It should be an interesting race tomorrow.

If I was Pletcher, I'd leave Gemologist at GP, and send El Padrino to the Louisiana Derby, since he's already won over the Fairgrounds track. That would set up a nice race between two huge colts - Union Rags vs. Gemologist. Sounds good to me!

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 12, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Johnny — Thu, 15 Mar 2012 19:18:09 GMT

Steve off subject what is your opinion of the HBO series LUCK?

I think it was pretty bad.

If this was a true reflection of the industry they would have alot to be ashamed of.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 12, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

pmorgan2012 — Thu, 15 Mar 2012 19:18:07 GMT

Steve or anyone else out there,

Do you know what's happened to Timely Tally? Haven't seen him on any worktab so wondering if he got injured in his last race.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 12, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Don from PA/DE — Thu, 15 Mar 2012 18:05:13 GMT

El Kabong...my guess would be "Gem" next race will be carefully selected, depending upon the timing my thought is not AD, but either Illionois Derby or Bluegrass at Keenland where he broke his maiden and obviously likes the track there as well, little traveling to CD from there as well...time and fields...time will tell, I just have high hopes for this "Gem"

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 12, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

El Kabong — Thu, 15 Mar 2012 16:59:35 GMT

Forbidden,

I think Romans is satisfied with last year's BCJ at Churchill. Considering he had trouble at the start and was too far back, he closed well. The surface, based on that race alone would suggest it won't be an issue. What this guy needed was the strength, athleticism and speed to race closer to the pace. He has that now. He's traveling much better and is not going to leave himself with so much to do in the stretch. Don't want to get ice boxed from being too far off. Teaching him to be in position by the turn and moving him a little earlier was a key learning experience and I'll look for that move in the Bluegrass. Nice thing about synthetic tracks is that you get the cardio-v without the soreness, and damage. He should be ready for a 10f rumble on May 5th. I'll be more convinced when I see a similar placement in the pack and that top of the stretch move from him in the Bluegrass that he showed in the Palm. Surface does not appear to be an issue.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 12, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

papillon — Thu, 15 Mar 2012 16:07:25 GMT

thanks deltalady!

deacon--secretariat may never have carried 130lbs, but he carried 126lbs in the gotham (which he won in 1:33.2) the wood (which angle light also carrying 126lbs won in 1:49.4), the KY derby, which he won in 1:59, the preakness, and the belmont, which he won in 2:24.

delta lady's gist was correct--until the mid-1990's horses carried a lot more weight than they do now--the mid-1990s coincides with the onset of universal lasix use in racing. my belief is that lasix has made it almost impossible for horses to carry weight.

i got laughed off another board for trying to discuss weight, because most people who follow this sport base their opinions on weight on parameters that haven't existed for over 20 years.

i would say based on the data i've collected since the connection between weight and performance really jumped out at me in january, that weight and track give are more important than distance these days. horses have weights limitations which are even stronger than their distance limitations. distance is a flexible range of several furlongs, but weight is a concrete wall.

anyway, i came back to correct myself--i got after somebody for not taking the time to check before they post "facts" and then got lazy myself!

hansen did carry 116lbs once, in his second race (1 1/16, he won by 13 lenghts). he carried 122lbs in his maiden (5 1/2f, won by over 12 lenghts), the bcj (1 1/16 won by a head), and holy bull (1 m, lost by 5 while giving 6lbs to the winner). he carried 123lbs in the gotham (1 1/16, won by 3, giving my adonis 3 lbs, and beat field by 9, giving them 7 lbs).

since rags beat creative cause, for now, he gets the benefit of the doubt (however, i am dubious that he will be able to do what 720 other dixie unions could not).

rags has carried 122lbs 3 times. at churchill, at equal weight, at 1 1/16 he was second to hansen by a head and beat creative cause by a 3/4 of a length.

creative cause has actually carried weight the most (5 times) but has had the most mixed results.

under a mile, while giving weight, he came in 2 and 3 carrying 122lbs. at a 1 1/16 he has won twice carrying 122 and 123 lbs respectively, and came in 3rd, by a length, to hansen at churchill, at the equal weight.

dullahan and liaison weren't the only other two horses to carry weight so far from this crop. i was wrong. here's the list (there may be more--this is based on the pps i have), in order of consistency and results:

gemologist carried 122lbs once at 1 1/16 and once at 6f, he was first both times.

dullahan has only carried 122lbs once, at 1 1/16, at churchill. he was 4th, 6 lengths behind hansen.

take charge indy has only carried 122lbs one time. he was 5th by 6 1/2 lengths to hansen, at churchill, at equal weight.

alpha carried 122lbs once at 5 furlong were he was 2nd to rags by 5 lengths, and once at 1 1/16 where he was 12th by 15 lengths to hansen, at churchill, at equal weight.

prospective carried 122lbs once at 7f (was 1st) and once at 1 1/16, were he was 13th by 20 lengths to hansen, at churchill, at equal weight.

liaison has carried 123 lbs twice at 1 1/16, was dnf (looked to have been about 5th or 6th) and was 4th to creative cause (lengths?).

mr. bowling has carried 122lbs twice. he was first at 1m70 and 11th at 1 1/16 to el padrino--who he was giving 6 lbs to (actually he gave 6 lbs to almost every horse in that race).

other horses who've carried 122lbs twice:

golden ticket (2nd by 2 lengths going 1 1/16 to finnegans wake, and 1st going 1 1/16)

twin (1st going a 1m, and 12th by 10 lengths to finnegans wake going 1 1/16)

side road (3rd by 9 lengths going 1m70 and 4th by 8 lengths going 1m)

other horses that have carried 122lbs once:

russian greek (1st going 1 1/16)

finnegan's wake (1st going 1 1/16--but was 3rd by 9 lengths to hansen while getting 7lbs)

shared property (3rd going 1m70)

king and crusader (1st going 7 1/2F)

tell all you know (1st going 7f)

spring hill farm (1st going 7f)

secret circle (1st going 6f)

cajun charlie (1st going 6f)

drill has carried 122-123 lbs a few times as well, but i don't have his data and he isn't pointed towards the ky derby.

looking at the objective data--hansen is the measure by which all of these other horses are judged. i should be grateful that he gets no respect--the horses that are touted every year always fail to live up to their hype and it gives me better odds, but...at the same time it makes me mad, because the data points to the conclusion that the best, the strongest, 3 year old in the country is hansen--until proven otherwise.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 12, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

JayJay — Thu, 15 Mar 2012 08:03:40 GMT

Steve : I read that Exothermic will either go straight to Bluegrass or Lexington. Any way you can confirm this ?

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 12, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

El Kabong — Thu, 15 Mar 2012 00:59:13 GMT

Mike Monarchos,

Gemologist will probably go to the Arkansas Derby where he would only need to finish 4th to get that much graded earnings. My eyes are glued to that race on Friday. Should be a good race and a good prep for the Ark. Derby, which is my guess on his next step. Currency Swap will be tough. I hope they run nose to nose in a gut wrencher to the wire.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 12, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Slew — Wed, 14 Mar 2012 23:32:51 GMT

Bodemeister is by Empire Maker (Unbridled) out of a Storm Cat mare...no problem I can see with 10f and a bit more experience.

Liaison, on the other hand is by Indian Charlie. I have no faith in his ability to go past 9f.

I like Dullahan, and have been impressed when I've seen him run...which hasn't been often..so I tend to doubt the soundness of an Unbridled Song with so little actual race time.

Empire Way, though he faltered in the San Felipe, still has impeccable breeding, and needs a different venue to shine. It just might be in Kentucky...but he needs another race before then.