Derby Dozen (video) - March 26, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 26, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Slew — Mon, 02 Apr 2012 23:24:29 GMT

Criminal Minds..I've been around for Citation (he and Arcaro suckered me into this sport), Secretariat (I liked Sham), Seattle Slew (my all-time hero), and Affirmed (I, too, was a fan of Alydar).

With Hansen, I'm going with my gut. I saw something special in the BCJ. I saw a shade of Slew, and have been smitten ever since.

With Union Rags, my jaw dropped with his runs in Saratoga. It was his ability to stop and restart with little effort that kept me interested. I was disappointed when he tired in the stretch at the BCJ. Now more than ever, due to the Fla Derby, what's he going to do in a 20 horse field? How far can he run? Do you know how slow he was closing? I do think he can go 10f. No way he can get 12f. He gets erratic after 9f.

The horses bred to run all day in this chase..Take charge Indy, Prospective,Gemologist, Alpha, Stephenoatsee, Empire Way, Wrote...look for AP Indy, Unbridled, Tiznow, etc..

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 26, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Cassandra.Says — Mon, 02 Apr 2012 05:30:46 GMT

Cuban, 'not proven' does not mean the same as 'proven not.'

Hansen is the first foal of his dam who is the only foal of her dam.

Stormy Sunday was a sprinter, but a good one. She was 4/3-0-1 with and excuse for her only loss. She was slammed at the gate. Hansen claimed her from her first start (and win) for $5,000 at Turfway and sent her back at Churchill for $30k n/2L, which is not dogfood. She won going away after breaking 22 and 45 dueling. She definitely contributed something to Hansen.

We've been disappointed by so many brilliant sprinters lately that we may be in danger of forgetting that lack of speed is not a virtue.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 26, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

zarvona — Mon, 02 Apr 2012 01:40:47 GMT

+++ APRIL FOOLS !!! +++

I told my brother, "if Union Rags turns out to be just another horse, this derby will be even more wide open than in past years"

... guessing the "All button" is going to be in play alot in the coming KENTUCKY DERBY ... the question is where should it be employed?? ...the winners side?? or the place side?? of an exacta?

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 26, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Draynay — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 03:28:58 GMT

At least I don't need to hear about El Padrino anymore.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 26, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

HotRocket — Sat, 31 Mar 2012 23:44:48 GMT

Ranagulzion - That pace scenario I laid out sort of played out except El Padrino's jock rode Union Rags the whole race. Guess he forgot he voluntarily got off the horse. Kept Union Rags pinned to the inside the entire first turn and whole backstretch and kept him in a pocket into the stretch. Completely forgot about positioning and forces his own horse to drop the bit. Both were 6 lengths back...nobody closes at GP. Think maybe Julian learned a thing or two today. No reason to toss any of the first 4 horses based on results. Wait to see who blossoms and works well @ CD. Got to pat myself on the back - here's my quote: "I'll take the need to win horse - Take Charge Indy for $500 please Alex." Beers are on me!

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 26, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Davids — Sat, 31 Mar 2012 22:08:21 GMT

Fantastic win by Take Charge Indy...who knows, A. P. Indy might just sire a Kentucky Derby winner.

By the way, making excuses for odds on favourites not winning races is tiresome, and I like Union Rags. Perhaps some realism will settle in as we lead up to the Kentucky Derby.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 26, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

CW — Sat, 31 Mar 2012 21:52:54 GMT

i thought union rags could win from anywhere? what excuse will his groupies have this time?????

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 26, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Slew — Sat, 31 Mar 2012 18:52:07 GMT

Interrupted by a phone call, I meant to add my heartfelt sympathy to the connections of Fox Hunt who broke down fatally in the Gold Cup. Declared a non-race...it was just rerun with Opinion Poll taking the race.

I was thrilled to see Rogue Romance return to the track with a win. He was my favorite in the 2010 BCJ because of his beautiful long and easy stride. McPeek did a great job on his comeback.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 26, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Slew — Sat, 31 Mar 2012 18:36:44 GMT

It appears that my Titanic handicapping has sunk most of my favorites at Dubai. Only Krypton Factor saved part of my face. Can I get an exacta on first and last place, since Soul managed last in the same race?

And Congrats to Scat Daddy as a new face enters the Derby picture with Daddy Long Legs winning the UAE Derby...and possibly Wrote who came in 3rd. Some also eligibles are having to move aside.

And I don't like Hansen going to Keeneland for the same reason I didn't pick the Factor or Game On Dude, 2 super fast American dirt horses just had nothing on the tapeta.

I still don't see So You Think getting the right ride...his heart was not in this race. I don't know where Mendip finished, but he had also been one of my favorites.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 26, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Oldie — Sat, 31 Mar 2012 15:12:34 GMT

Sceptre, on the subject of breeding broodmares back each year, I was once told by someone (who was a breeder - not TBs) her theory that a mare is born to bear a foal each year, and that when she is no longer capable of doing so she loses her reason to live; thus, if she elected not to breed a mare thinking she would be giving her a break, she may somehow be telling the mare she was no longer useful and was soon to die. Whether this theory is correct or not, mares in managed breeding programs are receiving regular, healthy rations of food and water and are protected from predators and the elements. I don't think it harms them in any way to have a foal each year. Just my two cents. Like you and Pedigree Ann, I have a particular interest in the fact, and the way in which, we (in the collective sense) influence future generations of thoroughbreds.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 26, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Criminal Type — Sat, 31 Mar 2012 11:37:17 GMT

Slew, Respectfully, I must disagree. There is plenty of stamina in Union Rag's pedigree, especially on the bottom. Please show me a Tapit that has won at 12 furlongs..Are there any ? Hmmmmm. In fact, I don't think there are more then a couple Tapit offspring who have been successful past 9 furlongs after turning 3. This makes me think that you are of the opinion that just because it has not been done, doesn't mean it can't be done.

There is just as much Seattle Slew and Secretariat in UR's pedigree as Hansen's. In addition, Hansen's win in the BC juvenile is not nearly as impressive when you consider the fact that Union Rag's traveled 78 feet further that day and lost by less then a foot. Rag's performance in defeat that day said volumes more then Hansen's win did. Make no mistake, Union Rag's is as gutsy and determined as they come. When the first Saturday in May comes along, UR is gonna pull up beside Hansen, look him in the eye and say "not this time buddy".

Slew, I too want to see a triple crown winner more then anything. I have been fortunate enough to have been around for Secretariat, Settle Slew and Affirmed...although I was an Alydar fan (gee..really?) The sport and the fans really need it.

I think Rag's wins the Florida Derby, going away with relative ease this evening, and I await the next round of excuses as to why he can't win the Kentucky Derby.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 26, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Slew — Fri, 30 Mar 2012 23:57:18 GMT

While I'm at it....

Wrote in the UAE Derby.

Haatheq in the Godolphin Mile

Invincible Ash in the Al Quoz sprint

Soul or Krypton Factor in the Golden Shaheen

Musir in the Duty Free

Mahbooba in the Sheema Classic

So You Think in the World Cup

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 26, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Slew — Fri, 30 Mar 2012 23:40:35 GMT

Dr. Dr: if only...if only. Wish I were there! And Algorithms was one of my favorites too.

Criminal Type: Most of the colts on the track today have a similar pedigree because Slew and Mr Prospector along with Storm Cat were very productive sires.

Union Rags, however, was sired by a middle distance runner. Even though UR has shown he has the size, grit and stamina for 10f, I don't feel he'll get 12f. I think, since Hansen has shown he can rate and relax, he might get 12f. And he's already beaten Union Rags.

Keep in mind, I'm not just looking for a Derby winner...I'm looking for a Triple Crown winner. (desperately). (And I noticed in a recent photo of Hansen that he has Seattle Slew's amber eyes.)

I do wish folks would stop comparing Union Rags to Big Brown. Union Rags is an awesome colt who is running cleanly. Big Brown made his TC runs on steroids which were not illegal until 2009.

Now, guys...I think Creative Cause is superb. He has a beautiful stride and a fantastic late kick. He's not off my radar, just not in my top 10..(there are 20 gates in the Derby). But in his recent out, he simply ran erratically. I thought Bodemeister had a right to run a bit green; CC had no such excuse....and wasn't he beaten by I'll Have Another before that?

As to the Godfather...I thought Mark Valesky was the more impressive horse in the Risen Star.

El Padrino was impressive over TCI in the allowance at Gulfstream, but how much have we really seen of TCI?

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 26, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Bigtex — Fri, 30 Mar 2012 22:02:11 GMT

I am always for an AP INDY colt doing well. Come on TAKE CHARGE INDY, give em hell, brother!!!

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 26, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

robinm — Fri, 30 Mar 2012 21:04:11 GMT

Dr. D and Slew - so true; we all interpret what we see differently and so much can change even now only a bit over a month away from the big dance. I think we all can agree there are a lot of nice colts this years and if those still in the mix stay healthy, it's going to be a lot of fun.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 26, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Stones — Fri, 30 Mar 2012 19:20:54 GMT

Criminal

I am stubbornly anti-"social media" and refuse to join Facebook. However, I have seen UR and agree he is quite the physical specimen. There is no argument from me there.

But physical stature doesn't always equate to race stature. I've watched all of his races and, while more mature than most of his foes, he doesn't blow me away. If the KD were run today, I'd probably take El Padrino AND Hansen over Rags.

Of course, I reserve the right to change my mind after tomorrow...

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 26, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Carlos in Cali — Fri, 30 Mar 2012 18:20:11 GMT

robinm; they diagnosed UM with that "mysterious" illness more than a week after he lossed the Wood with a little help from the CIA,FBI and Interpol. I wouldn't classify it as "immediately". UM set a moderate pace in the Wood and Pletcher said he was "dog-tired" afterwards. Check out the replay and you'll see him shorten his stride inside the last furlong,then watch his BCC race.. yes,I believe he had distance limitations without a doubt.

With the exception of Grasshopper,Dixie Union didn't produce 9f+ type of horses,fact. IMO,UR is a very talented horse but I say the further he goes the least effective he will be. BTW: Gone West isn't a stamina influence either.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 26, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

mz — Fri, 30 Mar 2012 18:15:53 GMT

Pole dancing.

(for the Rep. Primaries: Poll Dancing -- same thing.)

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 26, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Footlick — Fri, 30 Mar 2012 16:27:58 GMT

"Circle of the earth" does not necessarily mean a sphere. It could just as easily mean the Earth was flat and a circular shape. Sadly the Bible can be interpreted in many different ways. We are reading translations, not the original language with scholars who know the original meaning of the language in that time period. I am not saying it did not mean the Earth was a sphere, all I am saying is that you can interpret it another way also. I don't really care what anyone believes as long as everyone is respected.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 26, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Dr Drunkinbum — Fri, 30 Mar 2012 15:54:58 GMT

robinm

Especially at this point everyone is entitled to their opinion. At the time I didn't realize that Creative Cause wasn't on her list either. Both are on most lists. I was just curious as to why El Padrino was left off. I didn't think it was probable that it was an oversight but I wanted to be sure. Slew is pretty sharp and knows what she's doing. I figured she had her reasons. I just think El Padrino is tremendous and I love this matchup with the highly touted Union Rags. There is other talent also and this race will tell us a lot. Algorithms was my pick as the top talent but others are close to what I think of Algo. I'm actually surprised at myself for questioning any list at this early stage but I was a little dumbfounded. I'm sure a lot of people could question my list. It's kind of a waste of time though. Half of the horses on any list might not even make the starting gate.

Slew

I'll meet you at Rosie's Lounge for a quick snort before the Fifth (race).

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 26, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

-Keelerman — Fri, 30 Mar 2012 15:24:59 GMT

Johnny;

The Gulfstream Oaks is run under allowance conditions, which means that some horses are allowed to carry less weight than others based on whether or not they have won certain kinds of races during a certain period of time. For example, the conditions of the Gulfstream Oaks stipulate that the base weight is 122 pounds. However, "Non-winners of a grade I or grade II stakes at a mile or over allowed 2 lbs; of a grade III once or $60,000 twice at a mile or over, 4 lbs; of two races other than maiden or claiming at a mile or over, 6 lbs."

So because Yara won the grade II Davona Dale Stakes at 1 1/16th miles last month, she will be carrying the standard weight of 122 pounds. All of the other Gulfstream Oaks entrants qualify for the six-pound weight break because none of them have won "two races other than maiden or claiming at a mile or over."

-Keelerman

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 26, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Johnny — Fri, 30 Mar 2012 11:53:43 GMT

Can someone please tell me why Yara #1 horse in the 10th Sat Gulfstream Oaks has to carry more weight than any other horse?

Thanks in advance

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 26, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mike Monarchos — Fri, 30 Mar 2012 04:42:17 GMT

Stones, I agree with you. I don't see Union Rags as a monster either. If he beats El Padrino by more than three lengths he's a monster. Could be that El and Rags finish close and destroy the rest of the field. Then they'd both be monsters. Then again if the track is fast and they run 1:50+ they're probably not. I just wanna see a great and safe race!

Bob Baffert, glad you're out of the hospital! We need ya. Stay healthy man. Go Bodemeister!

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 26, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

mz — Fri, 30 Mar 2012 01:33:19 GMT

I've just had a terrible thought. We've talked about politics. Now it's religion. If Bob/Ted starts talking about the third thing youre not supposed to discuss in polite conversation, I'm outta here!

re: Derby Dozen (video) - March 26, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

robinm — Fri, 30 Mar 2012 00:48:02 GMT

Carlos; Uncle Mo was 3rd in the Wood, beaten a length and immediately afterward was diagnosed with a life-threatening illness. He hardly "hit the wall" in the final furlong due to distance limitations. As for Union Rags, there is no similialarity between he and UM and there is nothing in UR's pedigree or in his running style that says he can't get a 1/2 furlong more distance than he handled under wraps in the Fountain of Youth.

Dr. D.; I agree; Slew is pretty short-sighted leaving El Padrino off of his Top 12 list, but I will be very surprised if El P beats UR. But as you added in a later post, it will be a heck of a horse race if both horses run to their potential. I can hardly wait!