Derby Dozen (video) - April 9, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 9, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

CW — Mon, 16 Apr 2012 08:25:30 GMT

knew he would romp and friday morning it was confirmed when the entire chat here was devoted to trashing BODE. sure seemed like some genuine hate coming from jason shandler aimed at both the horse and anyone who touted him during the chate.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 9, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Bigtex — Mon, 16 Apr 2012 01:45:54 GMT

Steve, I'm going to copy and past this for your 4/16/12 Dozen, but I wanted to write it before I forgot my thoughts…

First of all, cudos to you for your forethought, knowledge, expertise, and experience to have faith from the very beginning in DULLAHAN. DESORMEAUX needed almost a mile and 1/16 to get him to wake up and once he did, boy did he put the hammer down! What a dominant performance. No loss of respect for HANSEN either. I'm sure they expected to NOT be on the lead like that.

I have questions swirling around in my head now!

To you STEVE, you historians of the sport, and to those of you smarter than me (most of you):

1) Aside from SABERCAT not knowing which way SECRET CIRCLE was going to go, his closing fraction(s) seemed to be not that far off from BODEMEISTER. Does anyone know SABERCAT'S final 1/8th or quarter fraction?

2) SPEEDWISE, did any of you have a thought about BODEMEISTER looking like the second coming of WHIRLAWAY, aside from WHIRLAWAY'S love of the outside rail???

I'm a big believer in bible prophecy and the prophetic influence of names. I can tell you I am taking seriously the parent's names of BODEMEISTER (EMPIRE MAKER, out of UNTOUCHED TALENT) not to mention the naming of BAFFERT'S son. Reminds me of some other sire and dam whose names were worthy of producing a fine horse, they were BOLD RULER and SOMETHINGROYAL.

I love how BAFFERT got a little emotional in his interview with HRTV on PURSUIT OF THE CROWN. I am becoming a big believer in BODEMEISTER.

Great job, STEVE! You da man!!!

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 9, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Marc M. — Sun, 15 Apr 2012 18:23:09 GMT

Steve, good call on Dullahan. I came this close to going to Vegas just to try to get him at 30-1. I suspect 8-1 on race day.

And with Dullahan becoming the betting public's closer of favor, Daddy Nose Best looks like he might end up 20-1 on race day. Strikes me as an overlay.

I'm following Bodemeister closely as he was my big futures bet this year. I was at SA for the San Felipe and heard Bob B. tell Bejarano in the paddock to take the horse back for a while, then hit the throttle. Yet Bodemeister was involved in the race in the first quarter mile. I'm wondering if he's simply a free-running horse who can try to run them off their heels (War Emblem) yet has a difficult time with pressure, or if his San Felipe was characteristic of that first time a good horse gets thrown into an elite class challenge (they often don't win). Bob B. was definitely trying to teach Bodemeister to take dirt in that group workout. But he obviously likes to go early.

...Very curious to see what Bodemeister and Hansen do up front on Derby day.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 9, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Matt Helm — Sun, 15 Apr 2012 01:03:25 GMT

Made the mistake keying Optimizer.Looks like D.Wayne is finally done.0 for his last 110 or something in graded stakes.Now let's get down to business.This derby looks very chalky.Barring defections I'm still about Union Rags in a super key over 8 others.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 9, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

predict — Fri, 13 Apr 2012 22:12:34 GMT

KENTUCKY'S DERBY COUNTDOWN

The Kentucky Derby may last only two minutes, but the party beforehand lasts 2 weeks. On April 21, the opening day of Louisville's Kentucky Derby Festival, you can pick up "local goodies" from vendors along the city's riverfront and watch an afternoon air show. On the night of the 27th , see "some of the most beautiful hot-air balloons in the country" glowing in the dark after their burners are lit to warm up the following morning's race. You also won't want to miss the famous steamboat race on May 2nd,when you can ride on a competing steamboat for a fee or root for your favorite from the riverbank for free. the festival concludes with a May 3rd evening parade featuring"marching bands, equestrian units, floats, and giant character balloons." When the last brass section passes by, you'll still have more than a full day to rest up for the biggest horse race of the year.

And, remember when crossing into Kentucky, turn your watch back, 20 years.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 9, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

predict — Fri, 13 Apr 2012 21:49:25 GMT

Criminal Type,

I don't know of any issues with Union Rags, it is just a gut feeling, probably brought about by all those favorites that we have seen drop off the trail in recent years. Make no mistake, nothing would please me more than to see him in the gate and then win this race like I think he is capable of doing.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 9, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Johnny D — Fri, 13 Apr 2012 18:01:03 GMT

Steve, how do I access your comments from Steve Byk's show. I am really looking forward to seeing progression from Sabercat. The added ground and the pedigree. I agree with your comments from your other blog, he doesn't need to win but a closing effort in the money would be very encouraging for his Derby hopes!

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 9, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Don from PA/DE — Fri, 13 Apr 2012 09:46:39 GMT

Steve, have you ever heard of or know what a "Streaming Horse" is?

One of the DRF folk, who has "Gemologist" as #3 make a brief

note "Gem will probably be a streaming horse in KD"? Have yet to

get an articulation of this term if there is one? Thanks, Don

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 9, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Ranagulzion — Fri, 13 Apr 2012 00:10:35 GMT

Zarvona,

You go baby!!!

go baby go baby go baby go LOL!!!

It doesn't look like the connections of Howe Great are pointing him to the Derby (unless he blows their mind in the Bluegrass) therefore I'm jumping ship in the Bluegrass to support Ever so Lucky's backdoor entrance into the Derby. He'll be a pace factor for sure. I think that Hansen on synthetics is quite a beast and might freak in the Bluegrass. The kentucky derby is a different kettle of fish though and already Union Rags (Beauty & the Beast rolled into one) has begun to sound a warning. You may think that others have developed pass him but I'm sure you'll re-evaluate as a concientious Derby watcher in the coming days.

I just love your "signature" go baby, go baby, go baby, go!!!

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 9, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Slew — Thu, 12 Apr 2012 23:17:14 GMT

Zarvona: And what are you drinking? Seems a bit too potent for you.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 9, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Dr Drunkinbum — Thu, 12 Apr 2012 21:05:47 GMT

Deltalady

Thanks. Can't wait to see Hansen this weekend, and Bodemeister and Secret Circle and others. The last big weekend before The Derby. Still, I won't even have a list I'm happy with until the final pps come out after the post positions are drawn. Visually I've been very impressed with I'll Have Another and love his pedigree. I hope he gets to CD early and has a bullet workout. If everyone makes it to the starting gate I'm going to have more than one to root for.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 9, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Dr Drunkinbum — Thu, 12 Apr 2012 20:55:26 GMT

Slew

He'll be drunk as a skunk without drinking a thing if Hansen wins The Derby. Winning is the best cure. When we were kids we mixed everything we could find in the kitchen and fridge to make a "dare you to drink it" drink and we always drank some. Milk, tabasco, choclolate syrup, vinegar, soy sauce, ketchup, mustard etc etc. We didn't do it very often but had a blast doing it when we did, cracking up with every ingredient we added to make it as nasty as possible. I'm not sure why your Mint Julep reminded me of it. Go Hansen !!!!!!!!!!

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 9, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

zarvona — Thu, 12 Apr 2012 19:57:18 GMT

Prelim Prep TIMES:

1 1/16: (T):

“Howe Great”: 1:40.42; (T) GP;

1 1/16 :

“I’ll Have Another”: 1:40.84;

SA; 96 Beyer; Gr. II 1 1/16 R.B.Lewis

“Castaway”: 1:41.83;

SA; winner 1 1/16 Msw.;

“Creative Cause”: 1:41.84;

SA.; 102 Beyer Gr. II 1 1/16

“Creative Cause”: 1:42.66;

Gr. I 1 1/16 at 2 ; SA;

“Union Rags”: 1:42.68;

GP; 95 Beyer; Fountain of Youth;

“El Padrino”: 1:42.68;

GP; 100 Beyer; Alw.

1 1/8: (T) :

“Howe Great”: 1:46.46;

GP winner 1 1/8 (T) Palm Beach S.;

“Dullahan”: 1:46.46;

GP +1 ; 2nd 1 1/8 (T) Palm Beach S.;

“Exothermic”: 1:48.25;

GP winner 1 1/8 (T) Msw.;

1 1/8:

“I’ll Have Another”: 1:47.88;

SA; Gr. I SA Derby; + a nose

“Creative Cause”: 1:48.88;

SA; Gr. SA Derby ;

“Daddy Nose Best”: 1:48.59;

Sun.; Gr. III Sunland Derby;

100 Beyer;

“Take Charge Indy”: 1:48.79;

GP; Gr. I Fla. Derby

“Hero of Order”: 1:50.13;

FG; Gr. II La. Derby;

“Daddy Nose Best”: 1:50.46;

GG; Gr. III El Camino Real;

“Gemologist”: 1:50.96;

Aqu.; Gr. I Wood Mem;

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 9, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

zarvona — Thu, 12 Apr 2012 19:44:11 GMT

You want to say it’s about SPEED or BREEDING ??? Sure it’s all actually about WINNING no matter what the breeding or the speed, …but … SPEED and BREEDING are how many of us judge our picks.

Here is some references to speed re the posting pre sent….

“I’ll Have Another” ran 1 second faster than “Creative Cause” over the same track at 1 1/16 and beat him on the same track at 1 1/8 and forget ‘bounce’ or he might ‘bounce’ ! MIGHT doesn’t say he WILL , and many expected his ‘bounce’ to have been in the SA Derby already!!! Some bounce !! And, "Creative Cause" went passed "I'll Have Another" on the turn in the SA Derby if I am not mistaken !! and all where I keep hearing over and over about how “Gemologist” turned it up a notch on “Alpha”. Well, “I’ll Have Another” showed me a 5th gear in the SA stretch run that rivals only “Curlin”, who I might add got a terrible trip in his K. Derby and came flying back to grab 4th !?!! ((Additionally, “I’ll Have Another” has no ‘Storm Cat Breeding’ !! where again “NO Storm Cat breds have ever finished #1 in the Kty. Derby. YET !!! No matter whether regarding that argument that I am aware of where some [[“Lemon Drop Kid”, etc. ?]] went on to actually win the ‘Belmont’ ??… OK Slew??? See !! I do pay attention !… lol…]] ))

Although off the TURF, “Howe Great” has also ran the faster,--(fastest ?),--1 1/16 and 1 1/8 races so far, yet he isn’t ranked either. Yes, “Creative Cause” ranks in the top 5 performers at those distances, but there will be 19 other young grown-ups facing him come the first week of May, and, not as some just budding still growing teenagers including now a late budding “Tiznow” hoss. And now, where it also looks like only a 1/4 to a 1/3 of the field will be "Storm Cat" breds and not 1/2 as earlier once anticipated. And being where we have a much more competitive field this year than in the past several years even with the relative near same numbers of injuries as compared over the last 2-3 years.

And, if no one yet understands “Mine that Birds” odd BOOOOrail run to victory, who what ?, finished 4th at Sunland ?? “Daddy Nose Best” ran his 1 1/8 time in at Sunland thusly in THIN AIR, less oxygen!! and in a shocking time considering, no matter if one wants to add the 'supped up' track theory or not!! And he had also already run one of the fastest 1 1/16 times of the year prior to that and not at Sunland. “Take Charge Indy” also off a long trainer-owner induced BREAK beat your highly praised still #2 ranked having never before been ranked higher nor ever since. And, the fact that “Union Rags” couldn’t even catch the like of “Reveron” ?? says even more !

I recall a saying that once went something like… “to be the man , you have to beat the man !!!”…when Ali knocked out Frazier , Frazier wasn’t still #1 !!! well, “Creative Cause” didn’t beat his challengers nor did “Union Rags” beat his, your coveted 1-2 !! Some say they didn’t have to, but I say, those that ‘beat the man are the men’ !!! Is it not about “the BEST Athlete” ? these RANKING’S lists anymore ??? or do we rank only according to graded $$ won …? or expectations ??? or loyalty to connections ?? or the high and mighty odds makers ??? THE BETTORS should set the odds !! All 20-1 on Derby Day and see where the $$ falls, not Mr. Battaglia who saw Done Talking at 20-1 ? and Morgan’s Guerilla at 10-1 ? and etc. and whatever 30-1 ? he had “Hero of Dreams” at !!!

Also, rest and time to grow in this modern training era does not necessary lead to some ‘AUTOMATIC BOUNCES’ no matter what the current sports writers continue to use as excuses to rank now proven winners LOWER in their chartings, not just you Steve. Sure, anyone may get a “bad trip” come Church Hill traffic-jam-day, and then use that as a later excuse, but the BEST, or the best of the best, and the better horses right now to me anyway are NOT your coveted ‘BC 3’, in MY OPINION. ((That of course barring some “Bellamy Road” run #2 by “Hansen” come Saturday, where we’ll all be re-evaluating !!! )).

And Steve, I am not attacking you personally, and never would, know that. And I do highly respect your opinions and all you do including supporting this blob, which I have mentioned in the past. My point was, that I just think--MY OPINION--that you’ve been over loyal to YOUR opinion thus far this year and that you appear blinded to some of the other horses that have--IN MY OPINION--grown ABOVE not just around the fab “BC 3”. I have often noted where you have also said “it’s close” these ‘top six”, etc., and I stated, I pretty near agree with your “dozens” ((as we have whittled down our “sacks of potatoes” over the past c. 3 months journey thus far))…and yet was “just not in agreement with the order of your current ranking” … And yet stated, “that each has a right to his own opinion”. Surely, that’s why we have winners and loses at “the window” every day also, and many bloggers with differing opinions, etc.

Furthermore, I do also love reading and getting insights from and enjoying the humor of, and etc., from the many bloggers and many that have added in their opinions since I myself was once but a Haskin's novice blogger also. In fact, it would be real boring if we were all in agreement and of the same opinion each and every new ranking week, now wouldn’t it?.

But again, I will probably have a heart attack in disbelief if your currently ranked 1-2 actually finish 1-2 !!!.[[[ THUSLY, you needn't keep the ambulance at my door because I for one don't see it your way !! But, if you’re right, you best get me the police escort also because likely the heart attack will be massive !! ]]]

“I got the fever, fever in the morning, fever in the night… I got the fever …” GO BABY !!!

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 9, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Steve Haskin — Thu, 12 Apr 2012 17:46:19 GMT

Johnny D, why would you assume I've given up on him? I was just on Steve Byk's show and picked to win the Arkansas Derby.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 9, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Johnny D — Thu, 12 Apr 2012 16:37:15 GMT

Steve, have you given up on Sabercat? Don't you want to see his Ark Derby first?

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 9, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Slew — Thu, 12 Apr 2012 15:18:24 GMT

Dr. D: There's only one drink to calm the Doc..."Churchill Downs served thousand-dollar Mint Juleps in Tiffany cups with silver straws. The ingredients used were of such fine quality, it’s absurd: Woodford Reserve bourbon, mint imported from Ireland, ice from the Bavarian Alps, and sugar from Australia." I believed they've also used ice from an Arctic glacier. I'm certain the doc can afford this...but if not...I say buddy up with Jose Cuervo...it'll cure anything. The white lighning Hansen says this is so potent, it turned his coat white overnight. (or was that the moonshine?)

I'm really looking forward to this Derby...I've got the fever...and there is no cure.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 9, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Criminal Type — Thu, 12 Apr 2012 14:16:21 GMT

Predict, What makes you think Union Rag's won't make it to the starting gate in the Derby ? He has enough money, and he has never had any injury issues. The trainer says he is going, the owner says he is going. Is this prediction of yours based on some knowledge unknown to the rest of us, the fact that recent derby favorites have scratched and have set a precedent for that sort of thing to continue to happen or just wishful thinking ?

Forbidden Apple, Union Rag's had his first post Florida Derby workout this am. He went 4F in 48:40 at Palm Meadows. Not earth shattering but not too shabby. I would like to see him pick it up a little bit more over the next few weeks. He was second fastest at the distance. (Grace Hall was 3rd) Looking back on his pre Florida Derby works, it's a bit faster. In fact he hasn't had a work as fast since 2/06. I am sticking with this horse, In fact, im pretty certain my top three in Louisville will be the same top three from the BC juvenile. I wont be making confident choices until I see the actual entrees, riders and post positions and that wont be until May 2nd. The only thing I can guarentee is Union Rag's will be my favorite.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 9, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Bigtex — Thu, 12 Apr 2012 03:46:12 GMT

Just to clarify, UNION RAGS had a terrible trip in the CHAMPAIGNE, and, if memory serves me semi-right, he won the race!

He is capable of overcoming bad trips and a mile & ¼ would be most forgiving for this specimen.

Just a thought…but, again, 2 margaritas…

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 9, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Forbidden Apple — Wed, 11 Apr 2012 22:55:04 GMT

1)Alpha 2)Union Rags 3)Creative Cause 4)Gemologist 5)I'll Have Another 6)Dullahan 7)Hansen 8)Done Talking 9)Went The Day Well 10)Daddy Nose Best 11)Take Charge Indy 12)Bodemeister 13)Arm Force

Steve,

Can you please call Kiaran McLaughlin and ask him to get in touch with the agent for Garrett Gomez? Maybe Ramon was not at 100% and I know that Alpha was not at 100%, but Alpha needs a new jockey. Gomez knows how to relax a horse and then get an explosive kick at the end of races. His hand rides are intense and I think he would make a perfect fit for Alpha. Besides, Ramon already has Hansen.

Cassandra Says,

Exactly, Alpha and Union Rags were not ridden to win their prep races. Alpha was coming in with a 9 week freshening and looked like he was running at 80%. It was not about winning the purse(Godolphin has immense oil money), it was about getting him fit for the ultimate goal. At 1 1/4 miles I am siding with Alpha over Gemologist. People are forgetting that Gemologist had only 3 weeks between his allowance jog and the Wood Memorial. I am not so sure that he will be up to the task of the KY Derby. With Union Rags, it was so obvious that they were not letting him run until the final 1/8 mile. The upcoming workouts for Union Rags will spell out his fitness level.

Creative Cause might just need a new jockey too, Rosario needs to watch some replays asap. It was nice to see Creative Cause look the other horse in the eye and fight back hard. His best race is ahead of him, just not sure it will be on May 5.

I'll Have Another is a solid horse, i'm afraid his effort might have taken something out of him.

Dullahan will move up on my list if he wins or runs a fast closing second. His 57 and 2/5 workout suggests that he is razor sharp!

Done Talking deserves a long look in the exotics even though his race was slow. He can improve and I like his closing kick at 1 1/4 miles.

Arm Force scratched out of the LA Derby and missed getting in the IL Derby. Does he have a chance to run in a stakes before the KY Derby or will he be a Preakness horse?

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 9, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Dr Drunkinbum — Wed, 11 Apr 2012 22:53:01 GMT

Slew

Extreme cases need extreme measures and it's really just a matter of trial and error. No other drink has worked. It's the last one on the list. I've ordered a different drink for him every night since the BC Juv and nothing has settled his Derby Fever.(including every brand of bourbon) After this one it's on to different milkshakes and malts. We even tried Boones Farm Apple Wine on the theory that an apple a day keeps the doctor away. If at first you don't succeed, try, try again until you do is what they taught us in school when it comes to prescriptions. If Hansen the human colors up Hansen the horse then I'm prescribing polka dot hair for a year for Hansen the human.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 9, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

predict — Wed, 11 Apr 2012 22:52:25 GMT

(1) Creative Cause- just wish they would dump Rosario

(2) Hansen- hard to separate him from number 1

(3) Sabercat- think he will impress this weekend

(4) Daddy Nose Best- he might just be the best

(5) Optimizer- will love the distance, could win it all

(6) Gemologist- the scampering gem that toys with his opponents.

(7) Alpha- think he will unleash a big effort in the Derby

(8) El Padrino- still like this one alot

(9) Dullahan- could be our Derby winner

(10) Union Rags- if he even gets in the gate on Derby day, he'll probably run sixth

It's still very hard to separate this group, and no matter what number I rank a horse at, I don't feel strongly that anyone is that much better than someone else.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 9, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Slew — Wed, 11 Apr 2012 21:13:48 GMT

Uncle Stosh, Paynter just ran last Saturday...he's not in the Arkansas Derby, and doesn't have the cash to be in the Ky Derby. Bodemeister is the morning line favorite in the Arkansas Derby.

As to the Wood...the colts faced a strong headwind down the backstretch, came in gusts, and slowed a lot of runners.

And at Santa Anita, fastest 9f on turf was Lady of Shamrock, who outshined the colts in the SA Derby.

I did forget one category in my "After Easter...." awards:

11. Longest floppiest tongue (and why was it gray?): Creative Cause.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 9, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Karen in Texas — Wed, 11 Apr 2012 20:29:24 GMT

Alex'sBigFan & TerriV.----I've followed the 'colorization of Hansen' saga since well before the Gotham. To me, anything they might do to him would only detract from his own natural, unusual beauty. I'm hoping the 'surprise' we see in the paddock at Keeneland will be some sort of demonstration for the New Vocations racehorse program that Dr. Hansen supports. Perhaps Hansen will be draped with a banner or something that can be removed before the race. As I said, I'm hoping....

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 9, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Criminal Type — Wed, 11 Apr 2012 20:10:14 GMT

I'm wondering what Mary Lou Whitney think's of Dr Hansen coloring his horse. I doubt much. The horse is gorgeous and has class, leave him alone and quit trying to turn him into a circus side show. I recommend an induced coma for the good doctor until a week before the Derby. It's for his own good. I do not recommend alcohol, it might intensify his tremors.