Derby Dozen (video) - April 16, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 16, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Footlick — Mon, 23 Apr 2012 12:10:36 GMT

Ranagulzion- Bold Forbes also won the Wood, just to be clear that he did win a race longer than a sprint before running in the Derby.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 16, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

JayJay — Mon, 23 Apr 2012 05:22:46 GMT

THANK YOU Slew. I knew I wasn't that dumb when looking at pedigrees. I think I'm smart enough to spot the difference between a sprinter and a distance horse when looking at pedigrees... for example, Trinniberg... well, most of us know he's a sprinter. I didn't even have to look at his pedigree, just learned it from his trainer who said he's a mile horse at best. I guess some people know better than the trainer of the horse.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 16, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Slew — Sun, 22 Apr 2012 14:48:12 GMT

Deacon: A lot of the Derby horses are training on poly because the trainers find it easier on the horse to run on a cushion. While soft tissue injuries can occur, they are usually not career ending.

JayJay: I was a fan of Secret Circle also...because of his pedigree. His Grandsire, Unbridled won the Derby, and is responsible for a good number of TC race winners including Empire Maker, Grindstone, Birdstone, Mine That Bird and Summer Bird. His damsire, Dixieland Band, is the the damsire for Monarchos and Street Sense. Unfortunately Secret Circle won't go to the Derby, but I'm wondering if his poor showing in Arkansas was due to his injury.

Bill Two: In a previous response, I already noted Roman's answer to Kent's abrupt pull-up...he said KD always pulls up his horses quickly.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 16, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Cinco De Mayonnaise — Sun, 22 Apr 2012 00:28:20 GMT

Ole Railbird : I honestly can't give you a number, but there seems to always be at least 1 started in each derby that didn't run at 2 YO. I did look at this one night and also saw somethign very interesting about that. At least in the last 10 years or so, a horse has run 1st, 2nd, or 3rd being drawn 2-4 posts near the 2 YO. May be a coincidence, may have legs. But I guess I'm saying if you really like a horse this year, hope that he draws 2-4 posts away from Bodemeister.

And just for the record, I also noticed somethign else crazy. The top 4 finishing horses are OFTEN close. Last year it was 16,19,13,11. Year before 4,2,9,10. Year before 8,7,2. In 2007 7,8,2,5. Just food for thought.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 16, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Cinco De Mayonnaise — Sun, 22 Apr 2012 00:15:17 GMT

I would please like to add my 2 cents. It's worth about that anyways. I find this years Derby interesting. So much early speed and so many horses that will have to rate for the first time. On paper this race seems to set up perfect for Union Rags. I hate paper though. Creative Cause was right there in Juve and has beaten good horses. BUT, assuming he goes back to blinkers, I haven't seen a horse win in 15 years with an equipment change on Derby day. The change was indeed stupi, but it seems would be made even stupider by changing back. He's gotta leave them off to avoid history.

The other thing that has to be mentioned is it is too early to pick a horse yet. Creative Cause is everybody's pick huh? Ok he adds blinkers and draws the 1 hole. Still like him? How about post 20, 19,17, 18, 14. This race has been run many times and post 17 has NEVER won. The 1 horse hasn't even finished 3rd in like 20 years. Ya sure Big Brown was the first post 20 winner ever, but see a Big brown here? Bodemeister is 2nd pick consensus. Ok, well he didn't race as a 2 year old, is he better than Apollo? 2nd in history? How about he draws the 17 hole? Let's just wait for the final draw, handicap this like a regular race but yet pay attention to history. If this was the 5th race at Keeneland and Creative Cause was the 20 horse, everybody would say I'm not playing a horse breaking all the way from post 20. Look forward to the discussion. Oh and officilally I haven't made a pick, but on paper I like Alpha and Daddy Nose best as a longer shot. I'll tell you one horse that really seemed to gallop out well after each race and has a ton of class is El Padrino. But again, i have to see the draw

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 16, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Ranagulzion — Sat, 21 Apr 2012 23:19:48 GMT

Karen in Texas,

I am thrilled. Getting my wish will be to have spotted the Derby exacta and the Triple Crown winner for 2012. Wish me luck my dear.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 16, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Ranagulzion — Sat, 21 Apr 2012 23:16:46 GMT

jay jay,

We all ...well, lets say most of us knowledgeable turfites have seen what Secret Circle had to offer and knew that he had no shot in the Derby except as a pace-setter. Now that he's exited the scenario (we do regret his injury), a far more colourful and mysterious fleetfooted colt enters the fray in Trinniberg. I've posted at length about his credentials and the possibility that he's capable of doing what Bold Forbes did in 1976 (a perceived 'cheap speed' from the Caribbean Territory, Puerto Rico, that also won the Bay Shore stakes, wiring the Kentucky Derby field). Now let's just see how it all unfolds.

You could be in for another "all I can say is wow" moment.

Let me give you the elite group from which the Derby winner comes:

1) Union Rags 2) Gemologist 3) Daddy Nose Best 4) Trinniberg 5) El Padrino. Name yours and lets see who knows more about this game my friend.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 16, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

JayJay — Sat, 21 Apr 2012 18:16:06 GMT

Steve : Would it be possible for you to write an article on the first generation pedigrees of your derby dozen ? I'm not a pedigree expert but I wanted to get your opinion on some of the not so popular sires and dams. I think it'll be useful to some of us who are not experts in pedigrees. Any helpful info handicapping this bunch of talented 3 yr olds would be great appreciated.

I don't want it to become like an open debate, I just want to get your opinions on the dozen. There's one or two horses I'm settling on. I think I've looked at every angle except pedigrees. I even have a set of numbers I'm betting based on my birthday and my daughters birthday. That's like a last resort if I still can't figure out who to bet on come derby day.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 16, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Karen in Texas — Sat, 21 Apr 2012 17:33:18 GMT

I'm reading on another site this A.M. that Trinniberg is going in the Derby. BH will probably have the story up by the time this is shown as a post. Ranagulzion, it looks as though you are going to get your wish, but the pace scenario takes on new implications now...Has anyone else seen this?

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 16, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

The Deacon — Sat, 21 Apr 2012 17:30:12 GMT

Secret Circle and now Reveron out of Derby, happens every year. A couple weeks before the race they start dropping like flies. It's almost seems like a curse the racing Gods have put upon us. How is the racing community ever gonna know who is the best 3 year old if they keep getting hurt every year. Horses by species are born to run, so something is amiss as to why they keep getting hurt so much.....ugh!!

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 16, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Bill Two — Sat, 21 Apr 2012 00:57:49 GMT

Slew and TerriV: I don't contest your assertions that Kent's ego may be bigger than his talent which is considerable. When he was an apprentice at Pimlico I remember fans chanting, "Superman" when he appeared in the winners circle after one of his multiple win days - of which there were so many. He certainly hasn't distinguished himself on occasion with his behavior off track, but I really would like to hear from him and Romans about the abrupt pull-up after the Blue Grass. Apparently, the horse is thriving from all accounts so it doesn't appear he emerged worse for wear for the experience. I agree with you, of course, that it is not a prescription for good health to pull a horse up so abruptly.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 16, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

The Deacon — Fri, 20 Apr 2012 17:55:22 GMT

Just saw where Union Rags had a workout at Keeneland. Is it me or does this seem somewhat odd that a couple weeks before the Derby one of the favorites is working out on a different track, and on a poly surface as well. I certainly am not in favor of this..........any opinions out there!!

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 16, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

JayJay — Fri, 20 Apr 2012 17:30:16 GMT

Ranagulzion : It's funny how you think of Secret Circle as a distance challenged but yet you're so excited to see Trinniberg run in the Derby. Trinniberg! Can you truly see him going 10F ?

Seems to me you contradict yourself for the sake of ... something, I don't know. Good luck on your big bet on Union Rags.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 16, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

JayJay — Fri, 20 Apr 2012 17:17:18 GMT

robinm : Yes it is a moot point and it's very disapointing because I truly believe that he could and probably would've won the Derby. I totally understand that it's not all about the pedigree but what I'm basing Secret Circle's win is the total package of the race. I'm depending on how the other horses will run, who and how the pace will be set up and run. The jockey and also how much of a fighter Secret Circle is.

Union Rags two races at two turns didn't really give me confidence that he can run longer. The Florida Derby was suppose to be his breakout race, and he disappointed there too. You and Ranagulzion seems to me, likes to see what you want to see on Union Rags and that's fine, that's what I did with Secret Circle. I saw his races and didn't think he's a sprinter. Someone said it before, he's a distance horse, he just doesn't know it yet.

Come Derby day, I will have a look at Union Rags but I will not place any money on him to win, if he does, that's fine. I just think there's a lot more others that has a better chance than him to hit the board.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 16, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

BrianH — Fri, 20 Apr 2012 04:08:35 GMT

I saw Sabercat win the Jackpot at Delta Downs. Would love to see him finish at the top of the Derby.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 16, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

robinm — Fri, 20 Apr 2012 03:09:31 GMT

Jay Jay; with Secret Circle out with injury, whether or not he can get 1-1/4 mile is a moot point, but I'd like to point out that you cannot rely entirely on pedigree to predict a horse's ability to get a distance of ground. Some horses with sprinter pedigrees can stay, and some with supreme distance pedigrees can't. Secret Circle seems to be one of the later. He has never shown any indication he wants any part of 1-1/4 mile. In regards to Union Rags; the first few generations of his pedigree is not laced with stamina, and I too agree that

stamina influences 6 generations back will have little to no affect on distance ability. However, Rags runs like a horse that will relish more ground. In the long run, which is more important; how the pedigree may influence stamina or how the horse performs when the distances get longer?

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 16, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

an ole railbird — Fri, 20 Apr 2012 02:00:50 GMT

about the old "appollo" excuse. we all know no horse has won a derby ,without racing as a 2 yr old, since appollo. so be it . now ,how many horses have srarted the kd, without racing as a 2 yr.old ??? i have never heard this figure. some one adress this please. just an ole railbird.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 16, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

TerriV — Fri, 20 Apr 2012 01:34:03 GMT

It's very interesting to read the number of opinions on KentD that reflect how I personally feel. I do want to clarify though that I do think he has a lot of talent; it's just a shame that he has an ego, temper and attitude that interferes with his ability to use his talent to the best effect. I really admire Dale Romans and have been really thrilled with the great job he's done with some very good horses in recent years. I'd love to see him win a Derby. I am worried about Dullahan after watching him being pulled up so roughly. I just ride for fun but even I know you can't pull up a horse like that. But maybe Dullahan can learn to slide like a quarterhorse.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 16, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

-Keelerman — Fri, 20 Apr 2012 01:18:11 GMT

Wow! Already my last post is out of date! Rousing Sermon has been confirmed as a Derby starter, which will make things a little bit trickier for Isn't He Clever and Optimizer -- although making the Derby field is still very much a possibility for both of them.

I should also mention that Morgan's Guerrilla and Golden Ticket could also make the Derby field if either were to win the Lexington Stakes, for a victory there would raise their respective graded earnings to $220,000 and $210,000. It should be interesting to see what happens!

-Keelerman

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 16, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Ranagulzion — Fri, 20 Apr 2012 00:48:13 GMT

jay jay,

Secret Circle is obviously distanced challenged based upon how much slower he's run when stretched out beyond six furlongs. He won those races at Oaklawn purely on superior class compared to the competition. However, competing against Bodemeister in the Arkansas Derby exposed his pretender status for the Derby. His only shot in the Kentucky Derby was going to be as THE front runner (Baffert is knowledgeable enough to have seen this) but debating him is now a moot point since he is unfortunately injured and off the Derby trail.

I quite like your addition of the "I told you so" line to our anticipated post-Belmont Stakes discussion. Only, you'll be saying "All I can say is wow!!!" and I'll be responding "I told you so" (LOL).

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 16, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

-Keelerman — Thu, 19 Apr 2012 18:11:30 GMT

The removal of Secret Circle from Derby consideration has seriously effected the graded earnings list, as it now appears that Reveron, and possibly Isn't He Clever or Optimizer, will be able to make the race.

Here is the current graded earnings list, as of 4/19/12:

1. Hansen $1,550,000

2. Daddy Long Legs $1,294,030

3. Union Rags $1,170,000

4. Dullahan $855,000

5. Creative Cause $836,000

6. Gemologist $703,855

7. Sabercat $701,4297.

8. Take Charge Indy $698,400

9. Bodemeister $660,000

10. Hero of Order $617,375*

11. I'll Have Another $601,000

12. Daddy Nose Best $545,558

13. Liaison $393,000

14. Alpha $380,000

15. Prospective $367,327

16. Trinniberg $324,500

17. Done Talking $311,000

18. Went the Day Well $282,000

19. Rousing Sermon $270,000

20. Mark Valeski $260,000

21. El Padrino $250,000

22. Reveron $220,000

23. Isn't He Clever $191,333

24. Optimizer $184,708

25. Castaway $162,000

26. Currency Swap $150,000

27. My Adonis $140,000

28. Brother Francis $135,000

29. Battle Hardened $127,000

30. Mr. Bowling $115,848

(*Not nominated to the Kentucky Derby)

As we can see, Mark Valeski has officially entered the top twenty. And when one considers that Hero of Order is not nominated, this would allow El Padrino to run in the Derby.

In addition, defections from Trinniberg, Rousing Sermon, or Liaison -- none of whom are definite for the Derby -- would allow Reveron, Isn't He Clever, and even Optimizer to sneak into the race.

Of course, this could potentially change depending on who wins the Lexington Stakes (gr. III). A victory by Castaway, which would net him an additional $120,000, would put him safely into the race. Even Stirred Up could get into the Derby should he prove victorious, for the winner's share of $120,000 would put his total graded earnings at $210,000, ahead of Isn't He Clever and Optimizer.

-Keelerman

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 16, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Bigtex — Thu, 19 Apr 2012 16:35:39 GMT

Nice to see this update on CASTAWAY…

Castaway has a chance to vault into the top 20 for earnings in graded stakes races if he can capture the Lexington Stakes on Saturday at Keeneland. Trinniberg is not on the Derby Watch list, because his connections are leaning against the race, but he has enough money to run should they reconsider. If Castaway does not win, and Trinniberg stays out, then Reveron, the Florida Derby runner-up, would be one defection away from making the field.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 16, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Slew — Thu, 19 Apr 2012 15:48:12 GMT

Bill Two...the incident at Woodbine was in 2010. The incident at Saratoga was just last September..from the Times "The jockey was taken off his mounts today by stewards the Racing and Wagering Board. No word on whether or not he will be allowed to ride tomorrow.

The woman Desormeaux hit was not injured.

According to Saratoga Springs police, Hall of Fame jockey Kent Desormeaux intentionally hit a NYRA employee with his Porsche at the Saratoga Race Course yesterday. He was charged with reckless endangerment, a misdemeanor, and released on $500 bail."

Later: "On September 8, 2011, Desormeaux plead guilty to a reduced charge of Disorderly Conduct. He was ordered to pay a $2,000 fine and take a defensive driving course."

Actually...when I've watched post race interviews, if KD doesn't win, it's always some one else's fault, but if he wins...the credit is all his. I think I just got tired of the whining. A good jockey...yes; A good sportsman..just my opinion...not so much. To most jockeys, it's the horse who counts, and so many show appreciate for their mounts, with gestures and words. I've never seen that from Desormeaux.

And pulling a horse up short after a race (or during) is not acceptable to me.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 16, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Deltalady — Thu, 19 Apr 2012 14:13:06 GMT

I've had personal favorites over the Derby prep season, but there are so many really deserving and talented horses, I think I will be happy no matter who wins. I'm actually most interested in the historical aspects to this deep field of talented 3 year olds. I believe Steve said there are now NINE runners from the BC Juvenile who have won graded stakes! Is that unpredented in the history of that race? How does this field of 3 year olds compare to those of the past? I mean, Mike Battaglia says he doesn't even know where to start, that it's not between A or B but it's A, B, C, D, or E! Others have hinted that there are historical aspects to this year's sophomore class. Steve, you are the best in giving us some historical perspective, I'm hoping you will write about this.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 16, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Tiara Terces — Thu, 19 Apr 2012 11:54:16 GMT

It seems a good case can be made for at least half of the field, and even they can be dangerous. I remember waking up on a recent Derby day saying "Mine That Bird." When I came fully awake, I thought "He's the first horse I have to throw out." As often happens, it may be rainy May 5th. What do you all think would be the effect that would have? I saw one Union Rags supporter say it would help him. Who else might it help? Would the Tomlinson ratings be reliable? It's better to get prepared for rain than to be in a dither trying to figure it out at the last minute. I know a sloppy track usually benefits front runners. General Assembly still has the Travers record. If it had only rained on his Derby, we might not have had to see Bid lose the The Triple Crown because of a safety pin.