Derby Dozen (video) - April 23, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 23, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

zarvona — Mon, 30 Apr 2012 23:06:09 GMT

Ok I guess Steve is sticking with last weeks selections as his final ‘dozen’. Its been a fun year, with a competitive crowd, but I guess its now time to state my case. In my opinion, there are several challengers that to me have out grown the fab “BC 4” …--“Hansen”-“Union Rags”-“Creative Cause”-& “Dullahan”… and only 2 of those do I consider have a shot at ‘win’ or ‘place’, “Union Rags”-& “Dullahan”…& less considering “Union Rags” who apparently doesn’t handle traffic well and that is exactly what the Kentucky Derby is, ‘a traffic jam’!!!, plus his odds will likely be low due to sport writers constant toting of him.… Those that have come along in my opinion that have outgrown these promising 2 yr. olds are: “I’ll Have Another”;-“Bodemeister”;-“Take Charge Indy”;--BC Juv 5th ?-- “Daddy Nose Best”; & “Went the Day Well”. … RE “Gemologist” who is the scariest of the rest, we all know that “Tiznow” ponies mature later than other breeds who usually start becoming more competitive as 4 yr. olds and late 3 yr. olds, but this one seems to have matured much faster than his relatives, which makes him both a threat and very scary. And, of course, then there is “Alpha” who is bred for the Belmont, but has questionable late tactical speed. Unfortunately for all future prospective bettors, this is thusly one Derby not to spend the ranch on. So, my advice is be selective and be careful. There is way too much good competition to find a sure thing. And, you can’t box 11 horses and show a profit !!… My thought, find the horse you like the best and again bet him ‘pyramid’ style… --example $5 to win; $15 to place; $30 to show and HOPE your pick gets in the top three ! Looking even for “exactas” in this crowd will be tough !! So spend a little and don’t be surprised if you do not to cash ! Triples and Supers should be off the table unless you can afford to throw money away !! The good news is there should be some value on the tote board !!! Pay attention to i.e. 38-1 shots you thought had a chance !! A few dollars on such shots may pay off handsomely !! And remember, the WINNER will eat up a good portion of the SHOW pool even making just betting to ‘place’ or ‘show’ worthy $$ spent !! Not just betting to WIN ! Yes there also are some other horses in the Derby !!! “Sabrecat”-“Mark Valeski”--maybe?--& “El Padrino”, all appear as worthy Allowance type runners with distance issues, then there is “Prospective”, “Liaison” , “Rousing Sermon” & maybe even possibly “Optimizer” whom all look bred for the distance, but appear to have serious speed issues. And of course, there is the unknown factors in the speedy “Trinniberg” and the potential late flying “Done Talking”. No way you can bet them all and show a profit !! although the “ALL” buttton might be handy in exacta plays for 1st and / or second surrounding YOUR PICK with hopes that he runs along side some LONG SHOT !!! not a low odds bet down horse such as “Union Rags” that the ‘public’ will likely be throwing too much money at !!!. Yes you can box say 4 or 5 horses and be done with it, likely that is what I will do !! LOL, and won’t be surprised after when I throw the ticket away !! Anyway, by now followers of this blog mostly have their favorite choices and are awaiting the POST DRAW and the weather report--80’s low possibility of rain ???--we shall see. Anyway, to all GOOD LUCK… And if your PICK draws dreaded post #1 against the rail or post #20 and isn’t a stone cold closer, look seriously at YOUR 2nd choice and his post position. Seemingly 5-17 are much more ideal than say 1-2-3 or 19-20 !!! That’s about all I can say , accept remember this, 7 or 20 entries will be “Storm Cat” breds, roughly then 1/3 of the field and many of the present top 10 selections are in that group. And yet, NO STORM CAT BRED has yet won the Kentucky Derby !!! not to say one can’t, just “Blue Grass Cat” who ran 2nd is the only “Storm Cat” Bred that has ever run so well in ‘the Derby’. Don’t let that throw you off of “Bodemeister” or “Creative Cause” if that is your pick, but keep the thought in the back of your mind. It iss a thought that has scared me ever since I once sent it all in on “Blue Grass Cat” to win !!! Anyhoo love da blog folkes and GOOD LUCK to all on DERBY DAY… “Go baby, Go baby, GO” !!!… Soon… “Theeeyyyy ‘rrrr OFF” for “the greatest 2 minutes in sports”!! May the winner run 1:59 & change… GOOD LUCK !! AND again , TY STEVE for all you do, this blog and the rest! MAY your ‘dozen’s’ column live foreva !! KEEP US INFORMED !

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 23, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

DoubleCopyXChromo — Mon, 30 Apr 2012 05:24:25 GMT

Does anyone know if UNION RAGS and/or CREATIVE CAUSE are X CHROMOSOME LARGE HEART Horses as they both have dam-female lineage going back to Secretariat and Northern Dancer? Note that UNION RAGS grandmother was SECRETTAME (daughter to Secretariat).

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 23, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mike Monarchos — Sun, 29 Apr 2012 23:29:29 GMT

Steve,

When do your reports on Derby workouts start? That's very helpful information when trying to handicap the Derby.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 23, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

robinm — Sat, 28 Apr 2012 18:04:37 GMT

With the major works completed, I can hardly wait to see Steve's new Derby Dozen. To my mind, the works, especially if on the Churchill track, are as important as a colt's last prep race. The owner of Went the Day Well is thrilled with his colt's work with blinkers on. Bode worked well too, but I heard he wasn't all that smooth early in the work. It seems the standout on the Churchill strip so far is Rags; very speedy 1/2 mile work but the gallop out was so strong clocker recorded it officially as a 5/8 work; the only under 1 min. work I saw posted for the Derby starters today.

Any way you look at it, I think we are going to have a very exciting race. Let's hope they are all healthy and sound when they enter the gate May 5.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 23, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Carlos in Cali — Fri, 27 Apr 2012 19:31:02 GMT

El Kabong,

As I cut through all the visions of grandeur- what you're saying is you don't really know for sure if Dullahan can duplicate his Keeneland form to dirt.I get,we all get it.He still has to prove it.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 23, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Cassandra.Says — Fri, 27 Apr 2012 06:31:03 GMT

Paraphrasing the old Irish fox's comments on sending Daddy Long Legs to the Derby:

"Oh, just a whim, really. Hasn't a hope of course. Not up to American form."

The stable's betting!

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 23, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

bohemiastable — Thu, 26 Apr 2012 22:30:35 GMT

Too early, but thoughts for 4/26 not exactly what I might be thinking on Cinco De Mayo.

Alpha—Nice horse but –scrapes on hind or not he had every chance to pass in the Wood and didn’t

Bodemeister—No knocks, I bet Curlin a few years ago –same type of idea--contender for it all.

Creative Cause—again hard to find knocks against as he always shows up has bottom and ran OK on track----definitely expect in top 4 finish but I just don’t like him to win

Daddy Long Legs---personally loved his win on TV from the Middle East—just seen too many like him not show up

Daddy Nose Best—well managed, will get the distance, but I just don’t think he is good enough

Done Talking----Not all these will be walking to the finish like in Chicago so I can’t see it

Dullahan---My gut tells me this is the winner but of course looking at the form it is harder to explain my gut feeling and I don’t know how the track will be playing or if muddy. Just strikes me that Kent lucked into another Derby horse. I really don’t like him on form because of the dirt---will be using on top but not exclusively.—AGAIN DEPENDING ON FINAL WORKS AND TRACK CONDITION.

El Padrino---Possible, but never have liked this horse and that won’t change before Derby

Gemologist---ABSOLUTELY no knocks and loved the way he picked it up when he saw Alpha and could have gone around again and wouldn’t have let him go by---again this is just a gut feeling—I don’t think he will win but I have no good reasons logically to say why I think he won’t. Definitely couldn’t knock those thinking he will.

Hansen----Think he will rate in Derby—but don’t think that will be enough to get him there first

I'll Have Another---This horse has put a LOT of money in my pocket—caught $5 tri in SA Derby when stuck over a G note plus $75 to win to refresh my bankroll and lead to a good winning day. (Much more if CC ran 3rd instead of 2nd) Had him in previous race for a token bet. Would love to go to the well again---but no muddy conditions necessary. Vet list people? Seriously can’t you read why?---He will be fine. Loved him at SA not so sure on the 5th.

Liaison---Jock and most have bailed---I will too

Mark Valeski---can’t see it—my pick for last which if I could bet it I get long odds. On paper he looks better than some but I don’t like period!—Aaron V. likes him on HRTV---he’s more of a death nell than Dray

Prospective----Mark Casse will win a Derby someday—not this one

Rousing Sermon---Too slow I’m picking Mark Valeski for last so how could I like this one?

Sabercat----Here is my weird longshot to hit the ticket although form says no—--bottom on supers and tri

Take Charge Indy---Interesting, as I think he can win and won’t be shocked if he does, but won’t be in my tickets. Won't knock those who like him. (Note, I really trust his trainer as he is one of the best --not mentioned enough-- to have him peaked--still can't bet)

Trinniberg---Sad, I really believe this was going to be the summer horse if brought along---as mentioned before I actually thought-- he of the horses I’d seen for 2 to 3 had improved the most---not impossible if that much improved, but can’t really see it happening. Too much too soon. Hope this doesn’t break his will (heart) to win.

Union Rags----Certainly a top horse—definitely can win—might do better than most in off track conditions---but comparing him to Barbaro is not wise—the latter was a better horse. A must use but in all positions but I don’t think he is a bargain at 6-1 and you will get less.

Went the Day Well---Not as impressed by win at Turfway as some—again not impossible but not on my list.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 23, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

El Kabong — Thu, 26 Apr 2012 19:54:28 GMT

Steve,

I'll follow up Stones question with my own. Runners who display an athleticism and explosive turn of foot often avoid trouble and get the jump on the rest. Who in this group excels with this talent?

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 23, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

El Kabong — Thu, 26 Apr 2012 19:20:07 GMT

Stones,

Great question for Steve.

Steve,

Your eye is always appreciated.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 23, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

anddownthestretch — Thu, 26 Apr 2012 15:55:49 GMT

Hey theholz stop with the insanity of trying to pick a triple crown winner. You can't be taken seriously when you make stupid insane statements like that. And STOP with the capital letters as that will make it happen. No triple crown as he will not even win the Derby.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 23, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Stones — Thu, 26 Apr 2012 11:21:00 GMT

Thanks Steve. Interesting reply, in the order that you placed them. Rags listed first makes sense, as the eyes have been on him since last year. Seeing WTDW listed second tells me that you really like what you see in him. Although Derbies rarely repeat themselves in consecutive years, you can't discount a horse for that. Maybe we will have another AK this year, and Johnny V. seems to be getting overlooked this year (dangerous thing to do).

Thanks again and I eagerly look forward to your reports from the workouts at Churchill.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 23, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mac Macus — Thu, 26 Apr 2012 08:43:31 GMT

1. Rags

2. Bode

3. Dullahan

WARNING WARNING WARNING

I haven't cashed a derby ticket since Smarty Jones.

(Am I the only person in the world that thinks 20 horses is too many...seems like such a lottery draw with a field like that....wouldn't it be better for racing if the field were limited to 14?)

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 23, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Bigtex — Thu, 26 Apr 2012 05:52:19 GMT

Steve, can you do me a favor?

I was reviewing the Remsen, which is a race that really impressed me about EL PADRINO, however, look at how DONE TALKING & EL PADRINO finish. I can't really tell if DONE TALKING was going to overtake EP or not but his finish was pretty impressive.

Can you offer your two cents on that?

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 23, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Steve Haskin — Thu, 26 Apr 2012 03:49:22 GMT

Stones, I would have to say Union Rags, Went the Day Well, and Daddy Nose Best and Dullahan.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 23, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

El Kabong — Thu, 26 Apr 2012 00:58:16 GMT

Carlos in Cali,

Your grim statistic for Blue Grass winners reminds me of a cold fact. So powerful if you stand back and look at it from only one direction. But for a nose loss to Dominican, Street Sense would have destroyed your entire premise that every Blue Grass winner since first synthetic in 2007 is doomed on dirt. A nose.

Too bad Mr. Romans didn't consider your lack of imagination as he planned out Dullahans road to the Roses. For some reason, he who trains this horse, and happens to be based out of Churchill Downs, must know something about his ability to perform on the surface or he surely would have included a dirt challenge if there was any question at all. He didn't need earnings. It would seem prudent and very helpful to handicappers in May.

I, like Mr. Haskins, do not think his BCJ was that bad of a race. He did dig himself a ditch in that race by falling too far off the pace, as he did at Keeneland in October (he just wasn't up against the same talent). But he has since drastically improved his attention to the first 1/4. But more importantly, he is just a far better horse altogether than the 2 year old who ran that race and that is why he nailed Hansen this time, who ran a very good race. I will say this about the BCJ, he was not as talented then as the others but he has improved more than any of them. His immature running style and the shorter distance of the BCJ did him in last November more than the soil. All your dirt races that you have so carefully examined to come to your conclusion about his dirt abilities happened along time ago in terms of development with a very different horse. You can tell yourself what you want about those races, but they will tell you only what he was capable of doing at two, and not what he is capable of at 3. That's it. Use your imagination and give Mr. Romans a little more credit, and you may see things more clearly.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 23, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

marapace — Wed, 25 Apr 2012 22:23:45 GMT

Derby Dozen is never easy and think this year particularly tough, hats off Steve, don't envy you any. Just a few thoughts to throw out. Could A.P. Indy pull a Mr. P? Both got Preakness and Belmont winners prior to siring a Derby winner. Mr. P got Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000 after he passed in 1999. With Indy's pensioning in 2011, his chances of a Derby winner are coming to an end but he has a strong candidate in Take Charge Indy, though as pointed out not crazy about his lead up to the Derby. Would love to have the Derby gods finally smile on an Indy, way past due.

Second, a few tidbits to ponder, as if the Derby field isn't tough enough this year. Dual qualifiers: Hansen, Union Rags, Creative Cause, Liaison, Rousing Sermon, Gemologist, Sabercat and ......Trinniberg. In trying to narrow down the field a little and digging through the pedigrees of just the DQ's looking for the all important La Troiene, several have peaked my interest because of the placements on both sides of the pedigree. Steve has pointed out previously both Sabercat and Castaway are both tail female to her. Sabercat, CC and Hansen (who appears to have the most crosses) have her on both sides of the pedigree. I honestly think that this year a dual qualifier will win the KD, and as I was digging also looked at AWD of sire lines, which puts CC on top (GC AWD 8.64) Gem (Tiz AWD 7.60) Hansen (Tap AWD 7.24) Sabercat (BC AWD 6.97) UR (DU AWD 6.90) Liaison (IC AWD 6.60) RSermon (LP AWD 6.09) and because Steve likes him so much even though he doesn't have DI or w/in 10lbs of EFH.. Dullahan (ETS AWD 6.75). Out of these, and like many here, hard to single anyone one horse yet, still like CC, Hansen, Gem (gotta stick w/ Tiz), on the fence about UR (still not have warm fuzzy on Dixie Union...like Mo last year, but love Matz), Sabercat and TC Indy (Indy overdue...and Calvin factor) as all three not IMO best 3YO campaign. Boedie is super nice but no 2YO races, yeah he had lots of W/O but not the same as racing and if he comes out of the KD okay will be one to watch. Think racing an important part of bone remodeling, as is carrying weight at racing speed, which goes to soundness, endurance and stamina. Dullahan think will hit the board... too many negatives but last race hard to ignore. As many of these deservedly on derby dozen and sure I'm overlooking someone, definitely will have to pay particular attention to Steve's observations next week.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 23, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Slew — Wed, 25 Apr 2012 22:19:12 GMT

Wow...10 days to go. One week to the post position draw. My top 10 remain basically the same...but..of the 20 colts entering the gate, I'd say 19 of them probably have a shot because it all comes down to luck. (I don't believe Trinniberg can get the distance). Next Wednesday, the post positions will be drawn, and that's the day the odds will be set. I've checked pedigrees and watched past performances, and the colts show a ton of class, and an eagerness to win. I've really tossed out Louisiana and Illinois form. Neither was impressive. I've seen graceful strides and awkward runs, and some horses who just can't seem to stay out of trouble. I worry about Alpha because I feel he's the real deal, but will his infection subside enough for him to do well? As impressive as Bodemeister looked in Arkansas, the Bluegrass was faster, and Hansen was the pace setter in that. The duels between Creative Cause and I'll Have Another have been breathtaking.

And to think...I'm so wound up about this Derby...but it's Lava Man I most want to see.

PS. And how did Bourbon Bay pull off that flared nostril win after falling asleep on the backstretch?

What a horse! He just doesn't miss at Santa Anita.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 23, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Stones — Wed, 25 Apr 2012 21:31:12 GMT

Steve, I'm curious. If you were to rank the horses solely on their stride/movement....who would be your top 3?

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 23, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Melanie — Wed, 25 Apr 2012 20:42:26 GMT

Is Trinniberg really anything to worry about? In the BCJ, he finished up the track - perhaps doesn't care for CD? Am more concerned for the horse. How good could it be for him to run his lights out, only to be left up the track at the end of the day?

Still hanging with Hansen. Am hoping for an outside post and a repeat of the Gotham - showed he could and did rate. If Trinniberg and Bodemeister hook up, but I'm wondering if Bodemeister is the real deal too? Everytime he's rated, he doesn't seem to be able to pull it off in the stretch.

Still think Hansen's the real deal - jockey and trainer seem to have him figured out - so long as the horse isn't distracted by his owner's shenanigans. I admire Dr. Hansen's enthusiasm, but one has to wonder if how much this might have interfered with Hansen's performance in the Blue Grass.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 23, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Age of Reason — Wed, 25 Apr 2012 20:29:37 GMT

Have had problems getting my comment submitted earlier in the week. Oh well, we'll see if it works this time! :)

I'm finally starting to get over my mental block caused by the information deluge that hits Derby fans this time of year, and have finally started to narrow down my personal field. These aren't necessarily in any particular order, just listed in the same order in which Steve listed them for comparison.

(1)Creative Cause--best thing for him would be if Harrington declared "no whip" before the race. If you're someone who has disliked the recent trend of 2-prep colts and horses with as much experience as I had at 3, here's your horse. (2)Dullahan--History definitely against one mare producing two Derby winners, and the oft-repeated stats of polytrack Blue Grass winners and their scant success after that race aren't encouraging. Don't dislike him (or he wouldn't be on my short list), but prefer others. (3)Union Rags--Really looked alive in that last work, but Keeneland's poly seems to be fast this spring and his Churchill work will be the meaningful one. Fears of his pedigree's distance limitations are legitimate, but Smarty Jones and Giacomo laugh whenever they hear that brought up! (4)I'll Have Another--Turns out he will have his final work before leaving for Churchill, and as Steve pointed out that is another historical trend he will have to work against. The reports of his making the Vet's list for electromagnetic therapy seem to have been greatly over-sensationalized; Mine That Bird was using an Equissage machine the week of the Derby and no one thought anything of it (they didn't give him much thought period, but that's beside the point). (5)Gemologist--I learned my lesson with Smarty Jones, Street Sense, Big Brown and Super Saver not to ignore the undefeated or the horse-for-the-course. Perfection (5-0) speaks for itself, and though some have expressed concern over no Churchill works leading up, if anybody doesn't need one it's the guy who already has two wins over the track. And as someone else recently pointed out, three of his wins were accomplished at tracks where he'd barely set foot on the track before the race itself. The real question for me is simply whether he's fast enough. (6)Take Charge Indy--We already know his capability to surprise us with a big one. Expecting him to again be sharp off the layoff, but the question is how sharp--will he become rank with a hot early pace almost certain? (7)Daddy Nose Best--Bred for it, good race last out and like the commitment to Churchill for several weeks leading up the the race, but the Sunland Derby was scriptwritten for his running style, and the horse he beat (Isn't He Clever) has bombed in both his starts outside New Mexico. He reminds me of Awesome Act or Cowtown Cat: talented and easily likeable, but for me it's just hard to get a precise feel for how good. I would love to also be able to put Alpha on here with good faith and conscience, but right now I'm looking to scratch contenders off for small reasons and he certainly has issues. After the Wood I was thinking he would probably be my Derby pick. Turns out this poor guy has worse karma than anybody since (ironically) Lookin at Lucky. Would love to put him back on, but he'll have to really come around fast to convince me again. All for now!...

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 23, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

El Kabong — Wed, 25 Apr 2012 17:01:57 GMT

Geronimo2123,

You are correct. I flipped his finish in the Preakness and Belmont. Still, I don't understand how a horse can run so well in a grueling series and to this day has to wear the moniker of derby fluke. If he was, then he was a Preakness Place Fluke to HOY Rachel Alexander and a Belmont Show Fluke as well. And both those races were exciting. He should have been given far more rest than he was given after the TC. The August 1st WVD was a really bad idea.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 23, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Carlos in Cali — Wed, 25 Apr 2012 15:38:06 GMT

El Kabong,

We all know you love you some Dullahan but it's pretty plain to see that he's "Dull" when he runs on a dirt surface,pun intended.He absolutely excells @ Keeneland and on turf.I might use him underneath the exotics though.

For what it's worth; since Keeneland switched to synthetics the BG Stakes winners are 0-19 on dirt... remember this.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 23, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Matt Helm — Wed, 25 Apr 2012 14:38:42 GMT

Maybe fluke was the wrong word for Mine That Bird.To all that i offended my apologies to you.When you win the Derby there is a heavy crown that goes with it.Ask Giacamo,and Lil E. Tee.How does history judge these three.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 23, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Matt Helm — Wed, 25 Apr 2012 14:28:18 GMT

El Kabong,Great points.I would be a little more excited about Dullahan if he was say,Cahill Road.A full bro to Unbridled who won the Wood but got hurt before the Derby.I agree that you could probably make a case for 12 horses on May 5th.That's why I always set aside an extra hundred to play as many random supers to cover for the unexpected.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 23, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Scott's Cause — Wed, 25 Apr 2012 13:28:06 GMT

El K--Thanx for the info...Now just have to figure out which horse is gonna be where...No problem..............