Derby Dozen (video) - April 30, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 30, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

zarvona — Mon, 07 May 2012 23:50:51 GMT

Mario "The ICE MAN" Gutierrez

Congrats to J.Paul Reddam and conections and to Doug F. O'Neill

WAY TO GO !!!

Maryland here we come !! and I guess they won't be underplaying "THE ICEMAN" now !!!

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 30, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

zarvona — Mon, 07 May 2012 17:11:26 GMT

And heart felt condolences to Chuck Sanford and the connections of “Take Charge Indy”, where it looked like Ol’ Calvin “BORAIL” had gotten him into a fine position for a real go at it from the tough #3 post.

Hmmm …only a 101 Beyer eh?. I tell ya, this horse , ‘Chocolate Chip’-“I’ll Have Another”,--he is like Roddy Dangerfield, he has gotten ‘no respect’.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 30, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

El Kabong — Mon, 07 May 2012 17:09:51 GMT

Predict,

How'd you do? Your list was very close to mine and good enough for a tri. What up?

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 30, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

zarvona — Sun, 06 May 2012 17:55:42 GMT

Quote from the AP … “ he--[[“I’ll Have Another”]]--was largely a mystery to the record crowd of 65,307, who didn’t know 15-1 I’ll Have Another or the jockey had the right stuff until the 20-horse field turned for home, that’s when Gutierrez, who moved up between horses around the final turn and positioned his colt not far from the rail and set him down to run.”

“I’ll Have Another overhauled a tiring Bodemeister to win by 1 ½ …”

If he was a mystery to the crowd, the crowd are not HASKIN’s bloggers !!! nor do they live in Cal. and get newspaper with a sports page ???? HE WON THE SANTA ANITA DERBY PEOPLE !!

DO YOU KNOW HIM NOW ????!!!

("do you know me now")

Note my brother tossed "Chocolate Chip" despite my ravings because he drew the #19 post & because he had a Rookie Jockey !!! I said you don’t won’t the 19-20 post “unless you have a closer!!!”, and this horse is a closer, and this horse IS THE MAN!! ((I also I admit I was a little nervous about the Jockey and the facts he ducked him in behind traffic a little early for my liking and when he made the final turn he wasn’t a bit more off the rail, but I said “IF HE IS AT THE FINAL TURN in the TOP 6 and not too far off the leader, LOOK OUT!! He was a bit far from the leader for my liking ((although I had BODEBEYER 1st and 2nd also, and hey he won. so I have little else to complain about.

to the fab “BC Juv 4”…

“Hansen” #14 14 3 3 3 3 4 9

9th + 11 ¾

his distance ability to carry his speed beyond 1 1/16 was always in doubt…

“Union Rags” #4 4 18 18 17 16 13 7th +9 ½

his inside post & inability to handle traffic AGAIN, made him virtually a non playable

despite the HYPE & the low odds

“Creative Cause” #8 101011 5 3 5th + 6 ¾

a respectable showing for a horse I had as my BC Juv favorite--who let me down then & apparently who now let Steve down in the Derby

“Dullahan” #5 5-11-11-13-7 5

3rd + 1 1/2 & a neck

a respectable run for a horse who has shown continued improvement consistently & will be a serious Belmont consideration !!

“Take Charge Indy” #3 3 7 6 4 12 18 19th DNF !!

What happened there???

Pulled up?? pulled out !! Injured ??

A report please ! ah OK TY

“’Take Charge Indy’ was found to have a chip in his left front ankle after undergoing x-rays the morning of May 6th …” from Bloodhorse… TY for the news...

…and as to…

“Gemologist” #15 15 5 5 5 10 14

16th + 30

lengths back? What happened there??? Pulled up ??

A report please !

NOT only did I , my brother, Steve, June Byrne, Mark Johnson , and many others have this horse somewhere near the top or as the winner, PLEASE get us a report as to what happened there!!

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 30, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

zarvona — Sun, 06 May 2012 14:38:05 GMT

Yeah that VIRGINIA bred “BODEMEISTER” (“BodeBeyerMonster”) --D.I. 3.00; -4/28/09 foal; $260K ’10 Keenlander; now (4 2-3-0)--

By “Empire Maker”: & Untouched Talent by “Storm Cat”; quad bred to “Bold Ruler”; triple bred to “Northern Dancer”; dbl. bred to “Secretariat” on the dam side; thusly dbl. bred to “Princequillo (G.B.)-“Prince Rose”(G.B.); dbl. bred to “Man O’War” , and at least 8 X’s inbred to Nearco (Ity.) throught the sires lines; with influences from “Free For All”; “Teddy” (Fr.) “Ajax” (Fr.); “Colin”-“Commando” & at lesat 7 Xs bred to the “BHXFG” strains via 3 Xs @ to Blossom Time; & Cosquilla (G.B.); & 1 X to Brushup; …and …

“I’LL HAVE ANOTHER”--D.I. 2.11; -4/01/09 foal; $11K Keenlander; $35K ’11 OBS; now (6 4-1-0)-- by “Flower Alley” (“Flower Alley Power”) & “Arch’s Girl Edith” by “Arch”; 5 Xs bred to “Northern Dancer”; quad bred to “Native Dancer”; triple bred to “Raise a Native”; dbl. bred to “Ribot” & thusly to “St. Simon”; dbl. bred to “Princequillo (G.B.)-“Prince Rose”(G.B.); at least 7 Xs inbred to “Nearco” (Ity”) through the sire’s lines; & 6 Xs bred to the “BHXFG” Strains via 3 Xs @ to Blossom Time; 1 X to Brushup; & 1X @ to Cosquilla (G.B.); & to Mah Mahal (G.B.); surely did ‘bounce’ !!! Those tow relatively young horses--when compared to the likes of “Gemologist”; “Dullahan”; & “Went the Day Well”, and etc., --surely did ‘bounce’, they bounced right across the finish line ahead of 18 others including the ‘Fab BC Juv 4” !!!

Although Steve, I must admit that your onside track reporting surely aided and added to my thinking on the plays and underpalys that I had also considered. I must WAY TO GO !! and keep up the good work and all you do for us. Yes, Keep up the good work !

Did I not once say this year 'isn't it about the breeding, the speed capabilities, and the results', the WINNING and that to be "the MAN" you have to beat "the MAN" !! Ok that's several times now that "I'll Have Another" has beaten "Creative Cause" (knuckle under now will ya?)and THAT last once in the loonnngggg Derby stretch just to prove my point. I will say it again, young "Chocolate Chip" has a 5th gear kick I haven't seen since the like of "Curlin". "s-m-o-k-in' .... If he can handle the pressure Belmont distance and repeat his Derby performance in the Preakness and that doesn't take way too much out of him all happening so fast with little rest, we may really have something special here! Saying the coveted words 'triple crown winner', well it's tough to get the band wagon out of the garage for yet until the Preakness is over, but...

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 30, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

zarvona — Sun, 06 May 2012 03:45:59 GMT

OK Steve... Did you finally get my drift re "Ill Have Another" and 'the Curlin kick' ???' Did I state that it was a SPEED favoring track thusly favoring the likes of "Bodemiester" and "Daddy Nose Best"... (and TY God for heeding to the "NO RAIN" chant.) Did I not state that "Dullahan" was a serious play BUT NOT ON TOP! Did I not state I liked "Gemologist" and "Went the Day Well" and that "Union Rags" and "Creative Cause" but only as mild consideration under plays for 2nd at best or lower ??? OK so "Union Rags" and "Take Charge Indy" drew dreaded inside posts, and I stated "Union Rags" appears "he doesn't handle traffic well" ???, although I think I saw "Take Charge Indy" not only work his way through the early traffic where I think he was up to 3rd? or 4th behind "Trinniberg" where I thought he had reached a good position, but apparently that work may have taken something out of him??. And then there was "I'll Have Another" who I said if he was in the top 8 at the first turn and in the top 6 in the final turn ... LOOK OUT? And then there was a speed favoring track where we all knew that if "Bodebeyer" got lose on or near the lead LOOK OUT!!! and that also favored "Daddy Nose Best" (( Andrew Beyer's straight EXACTA PLAY !!--too bad from Andy they don't have a 2 // 4 exotic play--[[Bodebellamyroadmeister]] .

WEll I admit I was routing for BAFFERT when "Bode" turned it up after the turn !--(( I actually Thought for a fleeting moment that the "STORM CAT" JINX was gonna fall!! ))-- but then " along came MARY " that "CHOCOLATE CHIP" and he was "CURLIN" s-m-o-k-in' in that 5th gear that few OF YOUR fab BC juv 4 4 ever showed or ever possessed. "Dullahan" older than many of the rest did show his metal and will be a strong re-consideration come Belmont time, along with "Alpha". What happened to "Gemologist" YOUR PICK MY pick my brother's pick-June Byrne's pick-Mark Johnson pick ??, guess we'll have to await trainer released news etc. to find out. And TY Draynay for adding to ALL the pools with your "Union Rags" plays (spent all of $2 on the horse myself as a place bet under the Horesss that finished 1-2 MY TOP 2 exacta plays myself !! Just wish I had the GUTS of my conviction now with $46K $1 dollar SUPER !!! payoff that I missed...lol ... And so we all saw "I'll Have Another"-"Bodemiester"-"Dullahan" a relatively easy TRIPLE that I also didn't play... and "Daddy Nose Best" and "Went the Day Well" all PICKS along 'Gemologist' and 'Take Charge Indy' that I used ROUNDING OUT A COMPLETE TOP 5 and only one BC juv top 4 horse--"Dullahan"--in that bunch being for 3rd. whom I finally came to grips with was the most intriquing of the 'BC Juv 4' lot!! WEll I am happy with "459.90" 1 1/2 X's exacta picks on my $42 bet and hope some few other bloggers on here took the keys I was expressing as well. IF NOT ...NO HATE MAIL PLEASE...

OK STEVE now open up a Preakness- Belmont blog and let's see if we can't make some more bloggers more profitable.

P.S. AND INVITE DRAYNAY back so we can TOSS his top choice !!

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 30, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Stones — Thu, 03 May 2012 22:31:06 GMT

Dr D.....don't give up on El P!!!

I like Bode, El P, TCI and Alpha.

Good luck everyone!

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 30, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Slew — Thu, 03 May 2012 20:58:56 GMT

Wow...looking at the the field, anyone of 12 or so are good enough to win....and considering how huge luck plays into the race, any one of the 20 can win.

As much as I love Hansen, I'm keeping my goal of a Triple Crown in mind...and have to consider the colt most suited to take it all.

I like Calvin in the #3 gate...I think it lowers his odds. The press seem to have ignored Alpha, but that is a dangerous colt to ignore.

But for the Oaks-Derby Double...(oh lord, don't let me jinx them) I like Broadway's Alibi and Take Charge Indy.

And I could change my mind tomorrow...because these are both races deep in talent...it's a luxury we haven't had for a very long time, and I'm just soaking up the glitz of it all.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 30, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Alydar — Thu, 03 May 2012 20:45:06 GMT

We´re almost at the wire, few steps away from one of the most exciting Kentucky Derbies in recent years. I hope the race make justice to so high expectations. Yes, this is a very good group, a very consistent one that makes us think any of those colts has a real chance to win the roses. So my list responds more to my feelings than any other cause. First, i really want an AP Indy descendant wins the Derby. Since last year i´ve been keeping Take Charge Indy in the top of my list. I really think he´s a very nice colt, versatile and with the resources to be the best of this interesting group. So, Take Charge Indy is my first choice. I´d like to put Alpha and Hansen as the second and third choice, respectively, but Gemologist looks like a monster in a track that knows perfectly. My fifth place is Went the Day Well. My longshot? Optimizer, the best choice to head a cinderella story. I insist that my list is an answer to my feelings, because anyone can win.

1- TAKE CHARGE INDY

2- GEMOLOGIST

3- ALPHA

4- HANSEN

5- WENT THE DAY WELL

LONGSHOT: OPTIMIZER (Lukas factor)

Good luck everybody!!!

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 30, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

THEHOLZ — Thu, 03 May 2012 18:40:18 GMT

BODE POST 6 - YOU GOT TO BE KIDDING. MY FUTURE BET LOOKS BETTER ALL THE TIME FROM LATE MARCH. GOT A FEELING HE WILL BE VERY SPECIAL. NEEDS TO SIT OFF THE PACE FROM TRINNI AND HANSEN. MAKE BOLD MOVE AROUND FAR TURN AND WONT BE CAUGHT FROM BEHIND. RIDE LIKE THE WIND MIKEY.MY EXACTA IS BODE WITH HANSEN FOR ABOUT $100 THE PAYOFF. THE CLOSERS WILL GET UP FOR 3RD PLACE. GO BOBBY B. THIS IS YOUR YEAR.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 30, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

zarvona — Thu, 03 May 2012 16:17:24 GMT

I am thinking I will make the rare exacta try... and hope that any of the "BC Juv 4" finish 3rd or worse. Not getting odds on "Union Rags" and thinking that "Dullahan" is burnt out by now and just hope "Creative Cause" doesn't destroy me, and that "Hansen" won't handle that last 1/8 of mile... thusly I will try ...

3-6-15-19 over

2-3-6-10-11-13-15-19...

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 30, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

El Kabong — Thu, 03 May 2012 16:04:39 GMT

Predict,

I am on board with your sentiments about Steve's work and most of the horses you list. I am going to replace Creative Cause with Went The Day Well simply because of CC's difficulty dealing with tight spaces and crowds. I noticed it and read some remarks by Mr. Harrington that convinced me his talent will fall to his fears. You can't have it your blood at all that day.

I will have Dullahan as my key on top and under. I have to tell you that I saved a post of yours for this moment. The discussion of how to pronounce Dullahan's name is still going. While the folks on the Emerald Teet that pokes out of the North Sea have advised on the Duh-lah-HAHN version, but I prefer, and so does the Donegal team, the one you put forth months ago.

"You begin by filling your oversized coffee mug with your favorite Scotch whiskey. After you down this you are prpeared to pronounce Dullahan. Start by facing the person you are talking to and approach them so that they are a breath wish away, curl your lips so that one side is higher than the other while closing your eye, the one above the down side of your lips and opening wide the other eye, stare the person you are talking to in the eye , turn your head away slowly as if to look over your shoulder and then turn back to the person’s face and say

, with a strong guttural voice, while slurring your words, say DOOOOOLAHHHAN!

predict 17 Oct 2011 11:13 PM

Too funny Predict, good luck with your bets, and don't forget to fill up your coffee cup before you place your bets:)

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 30, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

zarvona — Thu, 03 May 2012 16:01:37 GMT

hmmm here's a thought for a MORE competitive Derby... Allow the HIGHEST graded $$ winner the first choice of POST Position and so on, thuly giving the 'back in' $$ #26-27 earners the worst POSTS !!! and eliminate the likes of "Daddy Long Legs" getting stuck in POST #1 or in any event the top contenders their more or most desired POST to leave from, where the likes of a TRINNIBERG would get #1 or #20 etc.!!!

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 30, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

datflippinrabbit — Thu, 03 May 2012 15:46:06 GMT

Steve your pick CC looks VERY dangerous after the PP draw relative to how the others drew, if you look at it from a perspective of who is going to sprint early and who is going to hold back

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 30, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

zarvona — Thu, 03 May 2012 11:46:40 GMT

whats up with re the DERBY weather report... one station stays High will dominate through the weekend and no rain in forecast for Kty. ... the other station says approaching low from the north chance of rain Fri. and Sat. ???

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 30, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

The Deacon — Thu, 03 May 2012 07:11:45 GMT

First off, I would like to thank Steve for all of these wonderful blogs following the Kentucky Derby trail. He has made this season a memorable and fun time for all.

As Dan Fogleberg so beautifully sung, "In a chance of a lifetime", "In a lifetime of chance" it's now time to join in the dance.....Run for the Roses is now upon us.

Man O' man what a even bunch nice colts we have here. I like a few, like most do but here goes,

MY PICKS:

1. Went the Day Well.....

love the breeding and really like the layoff. Most times I don't but in this case I think he is primed for a big effort.....if he is good enough!!

2. Take Charge Indy.......

The Borel factor, and again he is well rested and A.P. Indy may get his 1st Derby win win as a sire.....

3. Union Rags.......

didn't fire too well in the Florida Derby, thought it was a good prep. Again, he is well rested and just looks superior....

4. Hansen......

Good workout in the Blue Grass Stakes, this is the race they want. What a beautiful horse.

5. Creatice Cause.......

Hard hitter, learning more and more how to run. Always gives his best. California is due to get one of these soon. Don't over look him.

I will put these 5 in the exotics and play Went the Day Well to win.

Good luck to all.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 30, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Mike Monarchos — Thu, 03 May 2012 03:27:25 GMT

Steve,

Didn't you say that Creative Cause lost a shoe recently and tore off part of the hoof? Wouldn't that be a concern?

I know Alpha is bred well for the Derby but can he overcome missing works after getting an infection after the Wood?

Daddy Long Legs is a throw out after getting the 1 post.

I'll Have Another may be hurt by post 19. Is he good enough to overcome it?

Trinniberg got post 9. Too bad he didn't get #1 or # 20. I just can't see this horse getting the distance having never run more than 7 furlongs.

Bodemeister is in the 6 hole, with two closers on either side of him. He should get the rail going into the first turn if he wants it. I don't think Take Charge Indy has the speed to beat him to it, but will probably fall in behind him with Borail.

Hansen has post 14, but he might get forced wide in the first turn, since he's outside of Trinniberg and Bode.

Gemologist is in the 15 hole, with a gap to his inside and stable mate El Padrino to his outside in post 16. He should not have a problem with the break. Castellano will have to make sure he doesn't get too wide in turn one. Same with El Padrino, who ran 60 feet further than Take Charge Indy and Union Rags in the Florida Derby.

Union Rags breaks from the 4 hole, with Take Charge Indy just inside, and the closer Dullahan just to his outside. Will he try to beat Bodemeister to the rail, or stay just outside of Take Charge Indy who will likely go to the rail.

This is getting confusing and it's just the start. I think this race favors the speed and the horses just off of the pace. If Bodemeister is the freak that I think he is he may be gone! I hope Gemologist stays within 5-6 lengths. Same with El Padrino, who's speed figures are as good as any as far as consistancy goes.

Can Rags stay out of trouble in this 20 horse field? I don't know.

As of right now I might bet a 6,15/6,15/All tri. I might bet some tri keys with 6 and 15 on top of 5 or 6 horses. I'm confused! HELP!!!!

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 30, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Draynay — Thu, 03 May 2012 03:14:06 GMT

Union Rags end of story.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 30, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Dr Drunkinbum — Thu, 03 May 2012 01:53:43 GMT

1. Bodemeister

2. Take Charge Indy

3. I'll Have Another

4. Gemologist

5. Daddy Nose Best

6. Union Rags

7. Creative Cause

8. El Padrino

9. Went The Day Well

10. Alpha

11. Sabercat

12. Tie- Hansen, Trinniberg

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 30, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

zarvona — Wed, 02 May 2012 20:17:23 GMT

latest Sprotwriter EXPERTS?

poll results noon -5/2

Union Rags 95

Creative Cause 79

I'll Have Another 55

Dullahan 54

Bodemeister 53

Gemologist 47

Take Charge Indy 38

Hansen 29

Daddy Nose Best 27

Went the Day Well 9

Alpha 8

Rousing Sermon 5

Daddy Long Legs 3

Sabercat 3

Kty Oaks

Grace Hall 57

On Fire Baby 50

Edon’s Moon 38

Believe You Can 36

Broadway Alibi 34

And Why Not 24

Summer Applause 22

Amie’s Dini 10

Karlovy Vary 9

Hard Not to Like 9

Jemima’s Pearl 8

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 30, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

TGN — Wed, 02 May 2012 18:53:23 GMT

Is Daddy Long Legs at CD yet. Have you seen him? Any comments/observations?

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 30, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

zarvona — Wed, 02 May 2012 15:04:33 GMT

Hmmm ...sooo... the BIG BARN established trainers i.e. Todd Pletcher and "Bobby" Baffert only got 2 entries into the Derby ... only 1 @ with a legitimate shot !! in my opinion and Steve Asmussen a noticed two. Surprising with the numbers sent them they don't have more, but we see "Algorythms" and "Secret Circle" and the like, etc. on the side lines, so more understandable. Nice to see the likes of some of the lesser trainer yearly leaders up the Derby. Kudos to Hamilton A. Smith; Doug O'Neill; Pat Byrne; and Mike Casse & etc. with runners, as they have all had my respect for years. AND, GREAT TO SEE D. Wayne Lucas back in the mix !!! I thought the cutoff might come in around $180K... although with the higher purses now days,--unless they re-vamp the current system,--that may not hold up in the future. Dag, this waiting for the post draw is killing me... Go BABY Go BABY GO...

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 30, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Matt Helm — Wed, 02 May 2012 14:50:24 GMT

Any word on who has the mount on Alpha.It's 8:oo am PST on May 2nd,Thanks.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 30, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

El Kabong — Wed, 02 May 2012 10:40:18 GMT

Steve,

Congratulations on your award. You captivate your audience every year with your insight and behind the scene stories that get to the heart of the sport. The people who make the industry happen and the special animals that work so hard for their oats and hay, are lucky to have such a talented bard to tell their story. Hats off to you Mr. Haskin.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - April 30, 2012 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Dee — Wed, 02 May 2012 07:40:31 GMT

The final days and the final dozens, here we go... a few quick thoughts- Prospective is looking the most impressive. Don't count out Alpha. Throw out Hansen and Creative Cause. I can't not do a $2 bet for laughs across the board on Trinniberg because he did look aweful good in his races. Maybe he is a freak, maybe he will finish last. $6 won't kill me but it'd be worth it if it paid out. As I see it, the order of finish:

-Union Rags (will include him in most trifectas but will leave out of some for value)

-Daddy Nose Best (looking the best)

-I'll Have Another (also very impressive)

-Prospective (most impressed with physically so far)

-Alpha (looking good, he will be there and fighting)

-Gemologist (hard to knock a horse who is undefeated, but I dunno about Castellano or his waiting on horses)

-El Pardino (the forgotten one, did he bounce or is he not as good as some?)

-Sabercat (liked him all year, quietly getting better)

-Take Charge Indy (Borail, enough said? Talented, but is he as good as the rest?)

-Bodemeister (looking good, but I can't get past the no 2yo races/4 starts)

-Liason (hard to discount a horse who ran so well at 2, but I have a hard time with the Santa Anita track excute)

The last three I'm kind of undecided as to how to rank them at the bottom but are still talented enough but have the biggest question marks for me: Went the Day Well, Creative Cause, and Dullahan. I think CC is too erratic in the stretch and get too worked up, and Dullahan is better on turf/synthetic and Kent D isn't reliable enough to bet on for my liking.