Derby Dozen (video) - February 5, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 5, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Pedigree Ann — Mon, 11 Feb 2013 19:24:42 GMT

Looks like my last comment is still bouncing around in the ether.

Erik, no hate on Snow Chief. Heck, my specialty is Calbreds and California bloodlines. Snow Chief was an excellent horse who won his races running on the lead. But that style led to his downfall in the Derby; he couldn't get the lead against Groovy (future champion sprinter) and Zabaleta (a sprinter/miler), tracked their overfast fractions, and had nothing left when the real running started. That was why a horse he had beaten twice already, a later developer and a true distance horse, could beat him in the Derby. That's what happens in this race.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 5, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

zarvona — Mon, 11 Feb 2013 10:22:24 GMT

From the “Potato Sack”, not the greatest weekend start for Derby Nominee hopefuls and beginning starters: “Declan’s Warrior”; “Freedom Child”; “Israal”; “Jack Milton”; “Little Distorted”;

“Pyrite Mountain”; “Tapulous”; “Track Rocker”; “Wabbajack”; or “War Dance”. And yet, although it seemed all tracks were running a bit slow or the horses were, kudos to “Park City”, 6 ½ fur. winner, and…Msw 1 1/16 winners “Perfect Title” & Saint Vigeur”, and actually, “Perfect Sets” …Msw 1 1/8 in for 3rd in at only +1 ¼ back of the winner at 1:48.88; actually wasn’t too shabby a showing, possibly making him another to keep an eye on.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 5, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

zarvona — Mon, 11 Feb 2013 10:21:29 GMT

Now if we could only get an IQ reading on all these 396 nominees, I think I would have an easier time attempting to find a real ‘dozen’ or twenty or so to place on top. And that so, because so far in my eyes, the so highly toted McLaughlin trainees in “Transparent” and “Valid” and even in “Long River” and now “Israal” have all come off looking like near retards so far all. So, good luck in the UAE with “Fortify”. And, if that’s the indication thus far from ‘the McLaughlin group’, what are we really suppose to expect from “Einaawi”, “Elmutahid”, Virginia bred “Maleeh”, and “Now and Then”? Thusly, if “Fortify” doesn’t run one or two at Meydan, where is McLaughlin’s Derby hopeful going to come from ?

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 5, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

zarvona — Mon, 11 Feb 2013 10:20:15 GMT

I am not amazed “Verragano” went off at low odds from his recent 1 Mi. 105 Beyer showing and the sport writers’ hype,--re my previous post,--but finishing as the favorite outside the ‘field’ is a damn shock!!! “Revolutionary”; “Violence”; and “Flashback” all look more appealing. And heck, “Uncaptured” and “Super Ninety Nine” and his own 100 Beyer figure along with the ‘sky boys’, Casse’s trained “Dynamic Sky” and Terranova’s trained “Falling Sky”,--99-1 ?? really ?, would have seemed to me as more solid plays,--and in fact, even “Frac Daddy” also, all look better suited to the ‘classic distance’ to me, and then there is always “Itsmyluckyday” and “Shanghai Bobby”. So, the highly so toted “½ brother of

“El Padrino” gets the most action? Mild shock here. However, that must make those that wagered on others much more happy campers.

And, I was thinking afterward, that if “Violence” wins his next race, we will never see 13-1 again !!!

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 5, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Pedigree Ann — Sat, 09 Feb 2013 20:09:25 GMT

I want to clarify what is meant by 'foundation' and 'seasoning'. It means having been trained up to the point of being able to race at 2, early or late. The physical changes that such training and racing make in bone density and muscle development is extraordinarily difficult to replicate in the short time available to the unraced 3yo.

This seasoning does not mean the horse has to be a SW or even a winner.

Monarchos raced twice late at 2 and was third once. He broke his maiden and won an An1x early at 3, then won the Florida Derby in spectacular style.

And need I point out that despite his brilliance and talent, Bodemeister did NOT win the Kentucky Derby? A colt who had raced decently in the summer at 2, then had several months off before a mid-winter return, did.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 5, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Pedigree Ann — Sat, 09 Feb 2013 19:53:42 GMT

Eric - I loved Snow Chief - he was an overachieving Calbred, with an Argentine damsire. But there is no doubt that after working forward to the tiring leaders Groovy and Zabaleta (sprinters both), he himself started to go backward in the final quarter mile. He couldn't even keep up with Broad Brush, who made a similar move and held on for 3rd.

Snow Chief did come back at 4 to win the Real Strub at 10f, but he was able to lead all the way in that one, as he liked to do. Having to run with specialist sprinters early in the Derby wore him out too much.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 5, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

zarvona — Sat, 09 Feb 2013 09:21:52 GMT

lol ...$12K plus bet on "Verragano"

day 1 in Pool #1 now @ 7-1 the FAVORITE outside of the "the field" at -6/5.

And I falied to mention that "El Pradrino" was 13th and three of those he beat broke down!!!

Well, they bet against me on the Derby too and my winner went off at 19-1 from the 19 post !!!

Told ya ... they live on the sports writers hype and a fast Beyer ... although even Steve did point out "Some knock his sire’s ability to get a classic horse...", which I took to mean beat a 'classic horse' at the 1 1/4 distance.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 5, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Fri, 08 Feb 2013 20:40:34 GMT

Karen In Texas just dropped a hook at the equibase site TY again.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 5, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Fri, 08 Feb 2013 20:36:19 GMT

BTW derbygal show me where you fish so to speak, and tell me where you got the birthdates from.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 5, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Fri, 08 Feb 2013 20:32:28 GMT

OK thanx alot DerbyGal and TY Karen In Texas.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 5, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

mz — Fri, 08 Feb 2013 17:51:19 GMT

Ted, unfortunately this year is the second niece's trip to Paris (at the aunts' expense -- she's finishing her degree AND she now eats mushrooms, which were a tough sale when she was 6). C'est domage!

And we now aren't getting any pennies anymore so if you keep saving them for next year, they're going to be worth maybe 1.5 cents then!

Will you put $2 on Dynamic Sjy or Uncaptured if theyr're in the gate?

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 5, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Slew — Fri, 08 Feb 2013 16:57:01 GMT

Zarvona: It's not a matter of my liking your posts or not. It's simply a matter of accurate information.

And the colt's names are Verrazano and El Padrino.

I actually love your passion and enthusiasm. Keep posting...just take your time to get it right.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 5, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Eric Rickard — Fri, 08 Feb 2013 16:07:57 GMT

Why all the disrespect for Snow Chief. It was derby debacle, but he did come back to win the Preakness. Does that philosophy apply to Point Given? If so, than his subsequent races did not matter. I mention Tiz The Truth because he looked good and he has Gary as a jockey. I too am waiting for tougher races. Its My lucky day seems like an improving sort. Shanghai was very impressive off the shelf.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 5, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

TerriZ — Fri, 08 Feb 2013 09:16:20 GMT

I just wanted to make some corrections about my comments on Itsmyluckyday and his trainer. Eddie Plesa, Jr., did have a filly run in the Ky Derby named Three Ring. And Viva La Viva's sire was Crafty Prospector out of Mr. Prospector.

Incidentally, Laurie Plesa, the wife of the trainer and a co-owner of the horse, is a sister of John Servis; Servis trained Smarty Jones.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 5, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Ted from LA — Fri, 08 Feb 2013 05:18:43 GMT

Dr D.,

How do you get your posts through the censors? I recently wrote the most mundane post and it vanished. mz, are you going to the Derby this year? I want to buy you a mint julep. I have been saving my pennies all year in order to do so. Overanalyze and Varrazano have my attention.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 5, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

JayJay — Fri, 08 Feb 2013 04:57:20 GMT

Dr. D : LOL, yep, that pretty much sums it up. This is the first time I've tried following 2 yr olds and had Palace Malice and Know More as 2 that I chose to follow. Palace Malice had a set up and Know More looks more like No More. It's hard picking potential derby candidates, let alone derby winner. As impressive as the winners were last weekend, it's just way too early to start putting them up on my list. I'm sticking with the ones that already have points and a few that I really like based on how they ran their previous races and of course pedigrees.

It's a quiet weekend, at least I can re-load a new batch of brain cells to get me ready for next week's preps. Hope things are going well with you !

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 5, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

derbygal — Fri, 08 Feb 2013 03:58:31 GMT

the birtdates for the pool 1 list for the Derby future wager?

CHIEF PICAWINNA 07 Feb 2013 8:08 PM.

Foal Dates; 2010 of course.

2013 KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGER POOL 1

Wagering Interest

Capo Bastone 4-25

30-1

Code West 4-12

50-1

Delhomme 3-04

30-1

Den's Legacy 1-28

30-1

Dynamic Sky 5-10

30-1

Falling Sky 4-17

30-1

Flashback 4-12

15-1

Frac Daddy 3-05

50-1

Goldencents 3-07

20-1

He's Had Enough 4-22

50-1

Itsmyluckyday 3-18

15-1

Mylute 2-26

30-1

Normandy Invasion 5-02

20-1

Overanalyze 4-30

15-1

Oxbow 3-26

20-1

Revolutionary 2-20

20-1

Shanghai Bobby 2-27

12-1

Super Ninety Nine 4-10

20-1

Uncaptured 3-19

20-1

Verrazano 1-27

15-1

Violence 3-21

12-1

Vyjack (g) 2-11

20-1

Will Take Charge 4-13

30-1

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 5, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Karen in Texas — Fri, 08 Feb 2013 03:46:25 GMT

Chief,

You're asking about the 23 horses in the Pool 1 list? Equibase has a profile page for each horse with date of birth, owner, etc. Any source with a 5x pedigree should show a DOB as well.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 5, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Paula Higgins — Fri, 08 Feb 2013 02:41:49 GMT

My top 6 right now are Violence, Revolutionary, Verrazano, Flashback, Tiz The Truth and Shanghai Bobby. Way too soon to really have a handle on who will make it to the Derby. Too many things can happen and sadly, do. Half the battle is keeping the horses healthy.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 5, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

zarvona — Fri, 08 Feb 2013 01:30:31 GMT

Why, I cant and don’t get excited early.

Gee , “Varrazano”, toted as the ‘ ½ brother ‘of “El Patrino” runs a fast high Beyer rated mile over the Gulf Stream track as a young three year old, all much as “El Patrino” dazzled us last year at 1 1/16 and even at a 1 1/8 . And yes, Pletcher ran “El Patrino” enough to qualify him in the Kty. Derby. all much as I am sure he will attempt to run “Verrazano”. OK, now they both had the same mommy in “Enchanted Rock”, which qualifies them both to be multiple times bred to “BHXFG” strain,--in fact 7Xs for “El Patrino” and 8X’s for “Verrazano”.--But, from their daddy’s lines who do you think is straight up better suited for distance, “Pulpit” ? or “More than Ready” ? Well, I would say “Pulpit” by nearly double in rating points, my rating system. Thusly, Steve can put “Verrazano” in his top 10; and Watchmaker can make him #2 if he wants to; Coolmore can invest in him as a down the road money maker; and Battaglia can make him 15-1 for the Derby Pool?? (really ??) , but boyz and galz, re the KENTUCKY DERBY, “El Patrino” finished,--if memory serves me,--13th in his Kentucky Derby attempt !!! So even if “Varrazano” does get in, just where do you really expect him to finish ??? And there will be Pool bets as such made on him from all the current sport writer’s hype and his fast little one time run and high Beyer from thousands who don’t follow this blog. But, they won’t get a penny on him from me in any Pool or in the Derby should he get in a gate, even if once upon a time “Giacomo” won.

Again, we have seen only the BC Juv and a couple of Gr. III qualifying preps and some Maiden runs. And there are plenty other horses out there already that rate out higher for 1 ¼ than “Varrazano”, and that’s why I pay attention to pedigree and don’t jump on a ‘miler’s’ bandwagon in February.

And that all so, “SLEW”, WHETHER YOU LIKE MY POSTS OR NOT …..

And TY Steve for sharing exactly where I got the supposedly errant figure on “Vyjack” from,--"THE DOWNEY PROFILE"-- which apparently makes me look bad, --but what’s new in that respect.--Although re these last two thoughts, it won’t both me if they are not shared.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 5, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Rusty Weisner — Fri, 08 Feb 2013 01:21:31 GMT

Pedigree Ann,

Funny Cide was another of those horses. He hadn't won as a three-year old until the Derby.

Though he was a gelding, I hadn't realized he went on to have such a long career after his Triple Crown season.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 5, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Fri, 08 Feb 2013 01:08:51 GMT

Karen from Texas do you know where I can find the birtdates for the pool 1 list for the Derby future wager?

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 5, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Fri, 08 Feb 2013 00:05:34 GMT

It was just last year that some of the pundits on this blog were in disbelief(because they didnt have him in the future wager) of the fast rise of Bodemeister.The excuse was he already ran too fast, he dosent have the foundation,he will bounce in the Derby,he dosent have the right style to win the Derby yada yada yada.Folks he dosent need to be seasoned(hes not on the menu) nor does a colt require a foundation(his trainer is not building a skyscraper)This year is setting up to be a Derby of colts that have only won one prep as a 3yo so I look forward to the same rhetoric.I think the starting gate will be composed of a majority of colts with 3yo form and a minority of colts with 2yo form,thats the way I see it playing out so many weeks beforehand.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 5, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

Little Bill — Thu, 07 Feb 2013 23:48:50 GMT

LOL. Yeah, all those cliches cleared it right up. I'm gonna go to the crystal ball.

re: Derby Dozen (video) - February 5, 2013 - Presented by Shadwell Farm

TerriZ — Thu, 07 Feb 2013 22:51:03 GMT

Changing the subject, I was looking up the pedigree of Itsmyluckyday, who Shanghied Bobby at the Holy Bull Stakes.

We all know that his sire was Lawyer Ron; Lawyer Ron's maternal grandsire was Lord Avie. Lord Avie recently died at the grand old age of 36.

His dam's family has a lot of class. His dam was Viva La Slew, out of Doneraille Court, a son of Seattle Slew. Viva's dam was Viva La Viva and the latter's dam was Viva La Sec out of Secretariat. And Viva La Viva's sire, Crafty Prospector, was out of Mr. Prospector.

I am so happy for Eddie Plesa Jr., Elvis Trujillo, and the owners of this horse. This is their first Derby horse. What an amazing opportunity this is for Plesa and Trujillo.